The Sports Curmudgeon

As the MLB playoffs progress, let me look ahead just a bit to take a quick look at some of the potential excitement in this year’s MLB free agency.  I need not mention that Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent and will be the most coveted free agent out there.  There will be ample sources of information and speculation about where Ohtani could or should sign – – so I will leave that topic to others.  I want to look at nine other free agents and where they might wind up.

1. Cody Belinger – – OF/1B:  His career has been a yo-yo.  He has been Rookie of the Year and an NL MVP.  He also stunk out the joint from 2020 to 2022 such that the Dodgers just let him go.  Last year with the Cubs he rediscovered his hitting stroke with a batting average of .307 and an OPS of .881.  I think the Cubs will work hard to re-sign him.
2. Jeimer Candelario — – INF:  His value is as a utility player who routinely plays first base of third base but could fill in at second base or shortstop.  The question here is how much a team will want to pay for an 8-year veteran whose career batting average is .243.
3. Josh Hader – – LHP:  As far as I am concerned, he is the best relief pitcher that I believe will be on the market this winter.  He is a 5-time All-Star and even though he is 30 years old, he only has 388.2 innings of work on his left arm.  I think the big-spending clubs will be in on the bidding here.
4. Rhys Hoskins – – 1B:  He missed all of 2023 with an ACL tear that required surgical repair.  The good news is that he has a career OPS of .864; the bad news – along with that knee injury – is that he will be 31 years old next season.
5. Clayton Kershaw – – LHP:  His workload has shrunk considerably.  He has not started 25 games in a season since 2019 and his innings pitched average out at 127 innings over the last 3 seasons.  He will be 36 years old but when he pitches, he often pitches well.  My guess is that he goes back to the Dodgers on yet another 1-year contract.
6. Aaron Nola – – RHP:  Is he the most coveted MLB veteran pitcher – – or is Blake Snell?
7. Blake Snell – – LHP:  Is he the most coveted MLB veteran pitcher – – or is Aaron Nola?
8. Justin Turner – – INF/DH:  He will be 39 years old next season; if he signs somewhere, look for it to be a 1-year deal maybe with a club option for a second season.  This may be the end of the line for Turner in MLB …
9. Yoshi Yamamoto – – RHP:  Yes, his accomplishments have been in the Japanese League but those accomplishments have been prodigious.  He has won the Tiple Crown in the Japanese League twice and has had the lowest ERA in the league 3 times.  He is only 25 years old, and I will be shocked if he signs with any team not recognized as one of MLB’s “big spenders”.

            Moving on …  For about the last year or so, there have been dozens of reports saying that Manchester United of the English Premier League might be for sale.  The team’s fans fondly wished for that to be the case; there has not been an abundance of bonding between Man U fans and the Glazer family since Malcom Glazer bought the team in 2005.  Malcom Glazer passed in 2014 but the relationship has not warmed even slightly between the fans and the next generation of Glazers.  So, there was hope among the fans that someone not named Glazer would soon be in charge of the club.

The latest reporting is not going to make every Man U fan happy.  According to a report last week, Sir Jim Ratcliffe is in line to buy a 25% stake in the team for a reported $1.6B.  From the fans’ perspective, that is not a controlling position which means the Glazers will still be in sight and in charge.  Reporters and analysts say that this is a first step in a process that will eventually have Sir Jim owning the entire club sometime down the road.  I have no idea if that is his thinking and/or if that is part of the Glazers’ thinking, but that seems to be the narrative out there today.

As of this morning, Man U is in 10^th place in the English Premier League; for now, they are not nearly in danger of relegation, but they are also 8 full points behind Tottenham and Arsenal who lead the EPL for the moment.  Man U fans might – – I said might – – look fondly upon the Glazers as club owners if the standings looked very different, but with Man U sitting in the middle of the table and not being a key figure in the league outcome, the fans’ displeasure is simply magnified.

Up to now, I have been peeking into the EPL newsfeed to follow two teams just because I find them interesting in 2024:

• Everton sits in 16^th place in the 20-team EPL.  This is interesting to me because it was in 1951 when Everton was last relegated to a league below the top level of English football.  This morning, Everton has 7 points in 8 games; the relegation level this morning is 4 points in 8 games.
• Luton Town sits in 17^th place in the 20-team EPL.  Luton Town had been relegated sequentially out of the multiple tiers of English professional football leagues; and then, over the past 10-15 years has clawed its way back to the top tier of English football.  Can they stay there?  Well, this morning they have 4 points in 8 games and would only escape relegation based on goal differential with Burnley who also have 4 points in 8 games.

            Given the potential sale of Man U, perhaps I will look at EPL news for three teams as this season progresses …

Finally, here is a brief observation from George Bernard Shaw:

“The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is a confluence of Friday the Thirteenth and Football Friday.  I will not try to look for or work in any angles about hexes, spells, jinxes and the like here because I am reminded of something my fifth-grade teacher – – Mr. Garrity – – said about the silliness of the superstitions surrounding Friday the 13^th:

“If something bad is going to happen, it can happen on Thursday the 12^th or on Saturday the 14^th too.”

With that out of the way, let me move on to a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College:  2-1-0  =>  Season:  5-5-0
• NFL:  3-0-0  =>  Season:  7-3-0
• Parlays:  2-1 => “Profit” = $193   Season:  5-3  =>  “Profit” = $507

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats extended their record for 2023 to 4-0 by handily beating Lewis and Clark 57-15.  As a Division 3 school, Linfield’s regular season schedule is only 9 games long, so the Wildcats only need one more win this year to extend their streak of winning season in football to 67 consecutive seasons.  This week is Homecoming for the Wildcats; they will host the Bruins of George Fox University.  Go Wildcats!

While things are looking up for Linfield and its fans this season, there are four college programs with high visibility that disappointed their fans last weekend.  I’ll start with Miami.

The Hurricanes won their first 4 games this year outscoring those 4 opponents by 125 points.  Last week, they played at home against Georgia Tech and the oddsmakers had Miami as a 21.5-point favorite in the game.  It was supposed to be a tune-up game leading Miami into the tough part of its schedule starting this week against UNC and then Clemson.  What happened was that through one of the biggest coaching blunders of the decade, Miami allowed Tech a final possession and then gave up a long Hail Mary TD pass to lose the game 23-20.  Note, even without the blunder and the defensive brain cramp, Miami would only have beaten an inferior opponent by 3 points.  Miami coach, Mario Cristobal has a reputation as a great recruiter and as a bad game coach.  Last week did not help that reputation.

Next up is Notre Dame.  The Irish also won their first 4 games in 2023.  Like the Hurricanes there was only one opponent in that early season that might be considered anything more than a scrimmage for the Irish, but the team was undefeated as it prepared to host Ohio State.  The Buckeyes won that game in South Bend but it was a close and a hard-fought game.  There was still a lot of positivity surrounding the program.  Then Notre Dame went on the road to play Duke and struggled to win that game by 7 points; and then, last week, the Irish went on the road again and got spanked by Louisville 33-20.  With two losses on their record, it is highly unlikely that Notre Dame will get any consideration for the CFP and will probably need to win out on the schedule to be in a New Year’s Day bowl game.

Let me move on to Texas.  The Longhorns won their first 5 games this year including a win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  The other opponents were not of that caliber, but Texas’ early season schedule did not include Amputees-R-Us either.  Last week, Texas played traditional rival Oklahoma; the Longhorns had the game in hand until the final 15 seconds when it gave up a TD pass that gave the Sooners the win.

Last on this list of four teams to disappoint last week is Texas A&M.  The Aggies were 4-1 entering last weekend’s game and the loss was to Miami back in Week 2; that loss could be dismissed by Aggie fans as a tough loss to a “top team” and it was a road game for the Aggies.  Last week, Alabama arrived in College Station looking less awesome than Alabama teams of recent vintage; this was a major home game for Texas A&M.  And the Aggies did what the Aggies do all too often; they lost the “big game”.  With two losses already on the books and with 3 games still to be played against ranked teams (as of this week), it looks as if this might be another mediocre season for Texas A&M fans.

Let me say something about the rankings of teams this week.  There are three teams from the Big-10 ranked in the Top 6:

• Michigan is ranked second
• Ohio State is ranked third
• Penn State is ranked sixth.

            My problem here is that of these three teams, only Ohio State has played a “real opponent” in 2023; recall that Ohio State beat Notre Dame by 3 points in South Bend.  The rest of the schedule for all the schools is embarrassing.

• Michigan:  Yes, they are demolishing inferior opposition; that is what good teams are supposed to do.  But the Wolverines 6-0 record does not impress.  If I had to identify a “signature win” for Michigan in 2023, it would probably be the 31-7 win over Rutgers four weeks ago.  Meh!
• Ohio State:  Give credit to the Buckeyes for scheduling Notre Dame out of conference.  Then ponder why the other two out of conference opponents on the dance card are Youngstown St. and Western Kentucky.  Other than Notre Dame, the Buckeyes’ toughest opponent was probably Maryland.  Meh!
• Penn State:  The Lions’ out of conference games this year were West Virginia (mediocre), Delaware (Division 1-AA) and UMass.  Seriously, Delaware and UMass in the same season?  Meh!

The only saving grace here is that these three schools will play one another between now and the end of the season; it is unlikely that all three will wind up in the Top-6 in December.

The college football season is about half over; by this point in the season, we should have a grasp on the cadre of “really good teams” and some indication as to the “really bad teams”.  By the end of the season, I will offer up my view of the eight worst teams in the country that I would like to see participate in an on-field tournament to determine the worst team in the country.  The idea is for teams to play one another, and the loser must continue to play until there is an ultimate loser.  I call that imaginary tournament the SHOE Tournament where SHOE stands for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

I am nowhere near ready to make any pronouncements about the teams that will be in the ultimate SHOE Tournament, but I do have my eyes on about a dozen teams that look pretty bad to me, Let me just give you a preview here:

• Akron, Ball St., Kent St., W. Michigan – – four teams from the MAC
• UMass, UTEP – – two perennial “contenders” for this tournament
• Arizona St., Nevada, Northwestern, Stanford, Temple UConn, UVa – – bad teams.

And just to keep you up to date regarding the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award given to the team that surrenders the most points per game over the season:

• North Texas gives up 39.8 points per game
• UMass gives up 39.4 points per game
• Nevada gives up 38.4 points per game.

Here are some observations about games from last weekend; I’ll start in the SEC:

LSU 49  Missouri 39:  The teams combined for 1044 yards on offense and 50 first downs.  Missouri turned the ball over twice; LSU had no turnovers.  A Pick-Six in the final minute of the game sealed the win for LSU and made the margin of victory seem larger than it was.

Alabama 26  Texas A&M 20:  Alabama was held to 23 net yards rushing in the game and won the game.  Alabama turned the ball over more than Texas A&M and won the game.  Alabama was penalized 14 times (for 99 yards) and won the game.  Makes you think the football gods were intervening here – – or maybe it’s just that Texas A&M always loses “big games” …

Georgia 51  Kentucky 13:  The Bulldogs finally put everything together here.  Georgia gained 608 yards on offense and limited Kentucky to only 183 yards of total offense.  The game was domination from start to finish; at halftime the score was 34-7.

Ole Miss 27  Arkansas 20:  Once again, Ole Miss trailed in the 4^th quarter and rallied to win the game.  In this case, it took two consecutive scoring drives – – a TD and a FG – – in the final minutes to pull out the win.  Arkansas turned the ball over twice in the game and that did not help their cause at all.

In ACC games last week:

Georgia Tech 23  Miami 20:  Miami outgained Georgia Tech 454-250 yards, had 23 first downs to the Yellow Jackets’ 12, and none of it mattered.  As discussed above, Tech won the game on a 44-yard Hail Mary completion with 2 seconds left in the game.  They only had possession because Miami chose not to take a knee on the previous possession that would have run the clock out.  Somehow, the Miami defenders let the Tech receiver get well behind them on the play that decided the game.

Louisville 33  Notre Dame 20:  That is the second loss of the year for the Irish; Louisville is still unbeaten at 6-0 for the season.  The Cardinals’ defense held Notre Dame to only 44 yards rushing in the game.  The Irish turned the ball over 5 times in the game – – 3 INTs and 2 lost fumbles.

Clemson 17  Wake Forest 12:  If you are a connoisseur of passing offense, do not bother to find the tape on this game.  The teams combined to produce only 268 yards of passing offense.  Clemson missed a field goal and lost two fumbles in the game – – and still came out with a win.

Florida St. 39  VaTech 17:  The Seminoles led 22-0 at the end of the first quarter and won the game on cruise control from that point.  Running back Trey Benson had a big day for Florida St. rushing for 200 yards and 2 TDs on only 11 carries.  He also caught 3 passes for 15 yards.

UNC 40  Syracuse 7:  The Tar Heels remain unbeaten so far in 2023.  This game was an unmitigated butt-kicking.

• UNC:  644 yards total offense, 32 first downs.
• Syracuse:  221 yards total offense, 11 first downs

And in the Big-10 …

Ohio St. 37  Maryland 17:  The score was tied at halftime, but Ohio St. pulled away in the second half.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. had a big day with 8 receptions for 163 yards and 1 TD.

Nebraska 20  Illinois 7:  The game was dead even on the stat sheet:

• Nebraska:  312 yards  17 first downs  5 of 15 third down conversions
• Illinois:  310 yards  16 first downs  4 of 15 third down conversions

A goal line stand by Nebraska and a kickoff recovery by Nebraska were turning points in the game.

Iowa 20  Purdue 14:  The Hawkeyes are 5-1 for the season despite scoring only 21.8 points per game for the season.  In this game, Iowa had only 12 first downs and ran only 55 plays – – as compared to 80 for Purdue.  Here are the results of the Purdue possessions in the second half; this should tell you that the Iowa defense is responsible for that gaudy record:

• 6 plays  18 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  18 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  0 yards  PUNT
• 8 plays  33 yards  DOWNS
• 6 plays  24 yards  INT
• 6 plays  74 yards  TD
• 4 plays  0 yards  DOWNS

And out west in the PAC-12 …

UCLA 25  Washington St. 17:  That is the first loss of the year for the Cougars and an important conference win for the Bruins.  The UCLA defense was dominant holding Washington St. to only 17 yards rushing and 216 yards of total offense.

Colorado 27  Arizona St. 24:  The stat sheet belonged to Arizona St. for the game, and it pointed to a weaknesses for Colorado that has plagued the Buffaloes all season long – – Colorado cannot run the ball; they gained 56 yards on the ground in this game.

• For the season, Colorado ranks 129^th in the country in rushing offense per game.
• The Buffaloes only run the ball for 78.7 yards per game and only average 2.46 yards per carry.

Nevertheless, this is Colorado’s 4^th win of the year, and they have a real shot at bowl eligibility for the year.

Oregon St. 52  Cal 40:  The teams combined for 946 yards of offense in the game.  There were only 3 punts in the game.  The Total Line for this game was 51 points; Oregon St. eclipsed that mark all by themselves.

USC 43 Arizona 41 (3OT):  Arizona dominated the stat sheet gaining 506 yards on offense as compared to 365 yards for USC.  This result keeps USC unbeaten for the year at 6-0 but it is not the game the Trojans will use very much in its season highlight film.  At one point in the first half, Arizona led 17-0.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

NC St. at Duke – 3 (45):  Duke is one of four teams in the ACC without a conference loss.

Texas A&M at Tennessee – 3 (55):  If the Vols “run the table” they can make it to the SEC Championship Game.

Syracuse at Florida St. – 18 (56):  The Seminoles rightfully have their eye on an invitation to the CFP.  Every game is a big game for them.

Missouri at Kentucky – 3 (51):  The game opened as a “pick ‘em game” but the line has moved toward Kentucky all week.  Both teams have one conference loss so far; the loser here is probably eliminated from any real chance to make the SEC Championship Game.

Florida at S. Carolina – 2.5 (53.5):  This line is a bit surprising, but Florida is winless on the road this year and S. Carolina is undefeated at home this year.  Nevertheless, I think Florida is the better team here – – albeit not nearly a great team; I’ll take the “better team” plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Michigan St. at Rutgers – 4 (39):  Have the wheels completely fallen off the wagon at Michigan State?

Louisville – 7.5 at Pitt (45):  The spread opened at 10 points and has fallen to this level.  The Cardinals need to avoid a letdown after a big win last week over Notre Dame; they enter this contest with a 6-0 record.  Meanwhile the Panthers are a less-than-laudable 1-4 for the season.

UMass at Penn St. – 41.5 (55):  Should be ugly …

Miami at UNC – 4 (57):  The Tar Heels are unbeaten (5-0) for the year; Miami will have to find a way to bounce back from its crushing loss to Georgia Tech last week (see above).

Georgia Southern at James Madison – 6 (59):  These are probably the two best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, and they are both in the East Division.  Big game in Harrisonburg VA…

Cal at Utah – 12 (44):  The Utes already have a conference loss; they cannot afford another one here.

Oregon at Washington – 3 (67):  This is the College Game of the Week.  Both teams are 5-0 coming into the game and both are 2-0 in conference games.  Washington is ranked 7^th in the country this week and Oregon is ranked 8^th.  Because the PAC-12 dissolved its division structure this year, it is possible that these two teams can meet again in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  I like both teams here; I am tempted to take Oregon with the points, but I shall resist.

UCLA at Oregon St. – 3.5 (54):  Both teams have one conference loss so far; a second loss would not be beneficial for either side.

Iowa at Wisconsin – 10 (34.5):  College football Total Lines rarely get anywhere near as low as this one.  I wonder if there is a prop bet for OVER/UNDER the number of punts in the game?

Arkansas at Alabama – 19.5 (46.5):  Alabama leads the SEC West and is undefeated in conference play.  The Razorbacks have already lost 3 conference games.

Temple at North Texas – 6 (70):  North Texas gives up more points per game than any other Division 1-A school so far this year (see above).  Temple has given up 40 points or more in each of its last 3 games.  This could be a “Tackling Optional” Game…

Kansas – 3 at Oklahoma St. (56):  Half the teams in the Big-12 have one conference loss; these are two such teams.  A second loss in conference will not be helpful at all.

K-State at Texas Tech – 2.5 (57):  Half the teams in the Big-12 have one conference loss; these are two such teams.  A second loss in conference will not be helpful at all.

USC at Notre Dame – 3 (61.5):  The Total Line opened at 69 points and plummeted to this level late in the week.  The fact that USC is the underdog here speaks to the porous defense the Trojans have fielded so far this year; they surrendered a total of 110 points in the last three games.  They rank 112^th in the country and surrender 421.3 yards per game.  Nevertheless, USC is undefeated at 6-0 when it arrives at the kickoff.  Call this a “Weather Channel Game” because its forecast for South Bend on Saturday night calls for high wind and heavy rain with temperatures in the low 40s.  If that forecast is remotely accurate, I like this game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I have not seen all the NFL teams play for a meaningful amount of time so far this year to categorize all of them.  Highlight reels are not sufficient but I have seen enough of the following teams to create 5 categories as the NFL starts the middle third of its schedule>

• Best Teams:  Niners, Dolphins
• Very Good Teams:  Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Lions
• Meh Teams:  Commanders, Saints, “Everyone in the AFC North”
• Not-So-Good Teams:  Chargers, Colts, Texans, Packers, Raiders
• Bad Teams:  Cards, Bears, Giants, Broncos, Pats

This categorization is my own and it is solely dependent on my eyeball test from watching these teams on TV.

My eyeballs are going to be assaulted by the NFL and the TV execs again this week because the schedule negotiators totally misread the tea leaves for 2023.  The Giants are going to be making yet another national/prime time appearance – – this time on Sunday Night Football.  There is no joy over that situation here in Curmudgeon Central.

Fans in Pittsburgh are happy to a degree because the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, but they are not at all happy with the team’s offensive performance under the tutelage of offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.  In last week’s victory, the Steelers’ offense produced 287 yards from scrimmage; it was a victory created by defense and special teams; Steelers’ fans certainly noticed that.

This is hardly a new phenomenon in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers have now gone 39 consecutive games without posting 400 yards or more of offense in the Matt Canada Era.  That stat is also not lost on Steelers’ fans.  I am loath to call for a coach to be fired because in the end the coach is not the one who makes the play or scores the TD.  However, 400 yards of offense is a good benchmark for a “Big Offensive Output” and the Steelers have now gone the equivalent of more than two full seasons of regular season play without demonstrating a “Big Offensive Output”.  Keep an ear to the ground on this matter; it is not going to go away quietly.

Back in early September, I made my annual NFL predictions for 2023 and one of the coaches that I had on my “Hot Seat” list was Bill Belichick.  My reasoning then was that owner Robert Kraft is now in his 80s and that he might be getting “impatient” for a return to times like the AFC Championship Game – – or better.  Earlier this week, Jeff Howe of The Athletic had a report that contained these tidbits:

“There’s a school of thought that suggests Bill Belichick has earned the right to go out on his own accord, that the architect of the greatest dynasty in NFL history can coach in New England as long as he chooses.  Kraft doesn’t subscribe to it.”

And …

“Kraft likes to remind people he grew up as a Patriots fan during the organization’s darkest days, but that doesn’t mean he has the patience to endure more of them. On multiple occasions in recent years, he has lamented the team’s lack of a postseason victory in the post-Brady era. … Kraft has grown frustrated, if not downright angry, over this shortage of success.”

I listed the Pats as one of the “Bad Teams” above in my “Eyeball Categories”.  This is another situation to keep in mind as the season progresses.  Frankly, what I think should be a first step for Kraft and the Pats would be to replace Belichick as the team’s GM and hire a real GM with the necessary support for that position.  But I don’t own the team …

Let me use one example of a failed personnel move by the Pats.  In last year’s free agency, the Pats allowed Jakobi Meyers to sign on with the Raiders.  So far in 2023, Meyers has caught 25 passes for 275 yards and 3 TDs.  Meyers is averaging 11 yards per catch.

GM Belichick brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster during free agency; it is hard to see JuJu in any light other than as a replacement for Meyers.  So far in 2023, JuJu has caught 14 passes for 86 yards and 0 TDs.  JuJu is averaging 6.1 yards per catch.

The Pats are not the only NFL team that is floundering in 2023.  The Broncos brought in a Super Bowl winning coach in Sean Payton with the idea that Payton had worked with Drew Brees and had developed ways to make an undersized QB with merely an average arm into a top-shelf QB who will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days.  Well, so far that has not worked even a little bit.  The Broncos are 1-5 (after losing Thursday Night’s game) and Russell Wilson is no better this year than he was last year.

I don’t recall who it was who pointed out that the Eagles play the Jets this week and that the Jets have never beaten the Eagles.  The two teams have met 12 times; the Jets are 0-12.  I wonder if Jets’ coach Robert Saleh will make that part of his pre-game speech to the team …

Meanwhile, the Eagles had better not look past the Jets this week because they will see an absolutely brutal eight-game schedule stretch from October 22 through December 17:

1. Vs. Dolphins
2. At Commanders
3. Vs. Cowboys
4. At Chiefs
5. Vs. Bills
6. Vs. Niners
7. At Cowboys
8. At Seahawks

Henry Kissinger famously said this about schedules:

“There cannot be a crisis next week.  My schedule is already full.”

Here are some comments about last week’s games:

Raiders 17  Packers 13:  When a defense holds an opponent to 17 points, the odds are that such a performance will produce a win.  However, when the QB for that same team also throws 3 INTs in the game, the odds can change.  Absent those 3 INTs, this game was dead even on the stat sheet as well as on the scoreboard.

Jags 25  Bills 20:  The Jags spent two weeks in London this year and came away with two wins.  The Bills’ defense had shown up big-time two weeks ago stifling the high-octane Dolphins’ offense, but in this game the Bills’ defense allowed 425 yards of offense by the Jags.  Meanwhile, the Jags’ defense made the Bills’ offense one-dimensional allowing only 29 yards rushing on 14 attempts in the game.

Steelers 17 Ravens 10:  For the first 20 minutes of this game, it looked as if the Ravens would win by at least two TDs if not three.  The Steelers’ offense in the first quarter ran 9 plays and gained all of 21 yards.  But the Steelers’ defense kept plugging and the Ravens’ offense went somnambulant, and the game came down to the 4^th quarter with the Ravens holding onto a 10-3 lead.  In the 4^th quarter here is what happened:

• The Steelers blocked a punt resulting in a safety.
• Then the Steelers got a field goal on the next possession to make the score 10-8.
• Then the Steelers got a TD but missed the two-point conversion making the score 14-10.
• A final field goal with less than 3 minutes left in the game produced the final score.

Meanwhile, here is what the Ravens did with the ball in the 4^th quarter:

• 3 plays – – minus-6 yards – – BLOCKED PUNT FOR A SAFETY
• 3 plays – – 8 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – INT
• 2 plays – – 11 yards – – FUMBLE
• 4 plays – – minus-3 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

            Let me do the math for you here.  The Ravens ran 15 plays, turned the ball over twice, had a punt blocked and had a net gain of 12 yards in a quarter of football.

The Ravens and Steelers will meet again this year; conveniently, that game will be on January 7^th, 2024, and it will be the final game of the season.  There could well be playoff implications tied to the outcome then.  The Steelers need to avoid playing the way they did in the first quarter last week and the Ravens need to avoid playing the way they did in the fourth quarter last week.

Lions 42  Panthers 24:  The Lions are for real; the Panthers are still winless.  This game was pretty even on the stat sheet; the Lions only gained 35 more yards on offense in the game.  The Panthers turned the ball over 3 times in the first half setting up the Lions to take a 28-10 lead into the locker room.  The Lions’ game this week against the Bucs was bumped to a late afternoon start to put them in front of a potentially larger TV audience; it has been a while since that happened to the Lions.

Falcons 21  Texans 19:  The Falcons outgained the Texans by 134 yards in the game, held the ball for more than 35 minutes in the game, converted 7 of 14 third-down conversions – – and still needed a last-minute drive to set up a winning field goal in the game.  Two turnovers by the Texans did not help their cause at all.

Dolphins 31  Giants 16:  The Giants got a Pick-Six in the game to make the score seem more respectable than the game really was.  Consider:

• Dolphins’ total offense = 524 yards
• Giants’ total offense = 268 yards

And …

• Dolphins’ average yards per play = 9.7 yards per play
• Giants’ average yards per play = 3.9 yards per play.

The Miami defense also sacked Daniel Jones 7 times in the game.

Saints 34  Pats 0:  This makes two games in a row where the Pats have lost by more than 30 points.  The Saints’ defense started the scoring with a Pick-Six and then limited the Pats to a meager 156 yards of offense for the day.  This was an organized ass-kicking.  After the game, Coach Belichick spoke obliquely about “starting over”.  I suspect it is way too late to “start over” for the 2023 season.

Colts 23  Titans 16:  Forget about the return of Jonathan Taylor to the Colts’ lineup for a moment; this game belonged to his backup RB, Zack Moss who carried 23 times for 265 yards and 2 TDs.  Gardner Minshew once again came into the game in relief of Anthony Richardson and the Colts’ defense held Derrick Henry to only 43 yards for the day.

Bengals 34  Cards 20:  Joe Burrow had a ”Joe Burrow Style Day” with this stat line:

• 36 of 46 for 317 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT.

Meanwhile, Joshua Dobbs also had a “Joshua Dobbs Style Day” with this stat line:

• 15 of 32 for 166 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

By the way, Jamar Chase caught all three of those TD passes from Joe Burrow…

Eagles 23  Rams 14:  The Eagles’ defense pitched a shutout in the second half to secure this victory.  The Eagles dominated the stat sheet gaining 454 yards to only 249 for the Rams.  AJ Brown had another big game catching 6 passes for 125 yards.  The Eagles held the ball for almost 38 minutes in the game.  The Eagles converted 13 of 18 third downs allowing them to enjoy that Time of Possession advantage.

Chiefs 27  Vikes 20:  The game was dead-even on the stat sheet:

• Chiefs:  67 yards rushing and 266 yards passing
• Vikes:  70 yards rushing and 259 yards passing

The Chiefs are 4-1 and have not played a “Chiefs’ quality game” yet this year.  [Aside:  That loss was by a single point in Week 1.]  Is this an off year for the Chiefs where the schedule collapses on them or should the NFL be very afraid of what their record might be if they ever put all the pieces together?  Stay tuned…  To make things even worse for the Vikes, they had to put WR Justin Jefferson on IR this week meaning he will be out for at least the next 4 games.

Jets 31  Broncos 21:  The Jets trailed 10-8 at halftime and then dominated the second half of the game.  Zach Wilson played Russel Wilson to a standoff here; Zach had more passing yards on fewer attempts, but he threw an INT.  Russell threw 2 TDs but also surrendered a safety in the game for intentional grounding while he was in the end zone.  The Jets amassed 407 yards of offense here while the Broncos only managed 308 yards.  The Jets only had 1 offensive TD in the game (a 72-yard run by Breece Hall).  The rest of the scoring came from a safety, 5 field goals and a short field TD set up by a fumble recovery.

Niners 42  Cowboys 10:  The stat sheet was as lopsided as the score; the Niners ran up 421 yards on offense despite only running the ball for about the final 10 minutes of the game; the Cowboys’ offense only managed an anemic 197 yards for the game.  Dak Prescott’s stat line was particularly unimpressive:

• 14 of 24 for 153 yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs

 

Games This Week:

 

Here are the teams with a BYE this week:

1. Packers:  They get an extra week to chew on a lackluster offensive performance from last week.  The Packers are 2 full games behind the Lions in the NFC North; they need to “get it right” awfully soon.
2. Steelers:  There is no quit nor any glaring weakness in the Steelers’ defense.  There is no glaring area of competence in the Steelers’ offense.  They get a week off to work on that offense.

In last night’s game on Thursday Night Football, the Chiefs beat the Broncos 19-8.  The Chiefs got into the Red Zone 5 times in the game and scored only 1 TD; if you told an opposing coach that his team would do that in a game, that coach would probably be chalking up a victory.

The Broncos’ defense was more than adequate last night; the Broncos offense – – to be most polite – – was uninspiring.  The play-calling was plain vanilla, and the execution was better than listless but not a lot better.  The Broncos are 1-5; the trade deadline arrives in two weeks; the Broncos traded away a boatload of draft capital to acquire Russell Wilson.  Might the Broncos be in rebuilding mode starting with the trade deadline that is careening toward them?

Ravens – 4 at Titans (41):  Both teams lost last week and now they get to travel all the way to London to play this week.  I expect this one to come down to the final moments of the 4^th quarter.

Commanders at Falcons – 2.5 (42.5):  The Commanders come to this game off a Thursday Night Football game meaning they have had “extra time” to try to figure out the answers to two “issues”:

1. Why has a defense that sports 6 first round picks in its starting lineup given up 160 points in 5 games?
2. Can Offensive Coordinator, Eric Bienemy call a game that will keep Sam Howell from being sacked more than 5 times?

Washington fans love the new team owner – – but patience is running out with the coaching staff and some of the players.  The Falcons need this game to keep pace in their division; the Commanders need this game to keep body and soul together.

Vikes – 2.5 at Bears (43.5):  The Total Line here opened at 48.5 points.  This was my runner-up for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Bears looked good beating the Commanders the last time out; the Vikes are getting nothing but bad breaks and heartaches after last year’s run of good fortune.  Do not be surprised if the Bears win this one and break their long losing streak…

Seahawks at Bengals – 2.5 (45):  Joe Burrow looked as if his leg injury has healed against the Cards last week.  If that is the case, the Bengals are the better team in this matchup – – but the key words here are “If that is the case…”

Niners – 7.5 at Browns (37):  The spread opened at 3 points and the Total Line opened at 42 points.  Those movements indicate to me that people do not think Deshaun Watson is going to play again this week; reports say he did not practice on Wednesday after having last week off on a BYE Week.  If Watson does not go, that means either PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson must take on the Niners’ defense.  Not good…  On the other hand, the Niners invested a lot of emotional capital in their trouncing of the Cowboys last week; there could easily be a let-down here.  The Niners are the better team – – but I’ll pass on this one.

Saints – 1 at Texans (42):  The spread opened the week as a “Pick ‘em” game.  There is a betting philosophy out there that says you should take a home underdog if that underdog has the better defense.  The Texans’ defense is good, but it is not necessarily better than the Saint’s defense.  I’ll pass on this game.

Colts at Jags – 4 (44):  The winner of this game will be in the lead in the AFC South Division; that fact puts this over the top as my Game of the Week.  It looks as if Gardner Minshew will be starting in place of Anthony Richardson this week; but frankly, I am not so sure that is a big step backward for the Colts.  Is Jonathan Taylor ready to play like a guy who has been the NFL rushing leader in seasons past?  I’ll go with the teams scoring on each other and take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Dolphins – 13.5 (47.5):  This shapes up as a blowout where the Dolphins might take the game OVER all by themselves.  On the other hand, this is a classic “trap game” for the Dolphins playing the sorry-assed Giants last week and looking ahead to a game against the Eagles next week.

Lions – 3 at Bucs (42):  The Total Line opened at 45 points and dropped to nearly this level early in the week.  Call me a wild-eyed optimist here, but I think the Lions are a very good football team in 2023 and the oddsmakers/betting public have undervalued them here because of the Lions’ history of – – well – – being the Lions.  I like the Lions to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Pats at Raiders – 3 (41):  Here is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Neither team seems to be capable of winning this game; one of them will surely lose the game.

Cards at Rams – 7 (48):  The spread for this game opened at 4.5 points while the Total Line opened at 45.5 points.  If you believe that QB is the most important part of an NFL team, you have to like the Rams here; Matthew Stafford is significantly better as a QB than Joshua Dobbs.

Eagles at Jets – 7 (41):  Can the Eagles make it 13 wins in a row over the Jets?  The Eagles’ defense should make it a hard day for Zach Wilson; the Jets’ defense can make it a hard day for any team in the league.

(Sun Nite) Giants at Bills – 14.5 (44.5):  The Bills stunk it out in London last week; the Giants just stink.  No way I play an NFL game with a spread of 14.5 points – – but I will not be surprised to see the Bills put a pasting on the Giants here.

(Mon Nite) Cowboys – 2.5 at Chargers (51):  The Total Line opened at 47 points and jumped to this level quickly.  Dak Prescott had a miserable game last week against the Niners’ defense; this is the Chargers’ defense and the only similarity to the Niners ‘defense is that both teams use 11 players at a time on defense.  I would pay attention to the Cowboys’ secondary in this game; it looked very vulnerable last week with the absence of Trevon Diggs.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Florida +2.5 against S. Carolina
• USC/Notre Dame UNDER 61.5
• Lions – 3 over Bucs
• Jags/Colts OVER 44

And just for fun, here is a Money Line Parlay for the week:

• Lions @ minus-180
• Rams @ minus-310
• $100 wager to win $106

            Finally, let me close here with these words from former Notre Dame coach, Dan Devine:

 “There are two kinds of people in the world, Notre Dame lovers and Notre Dame haters. And, quite frankly, they’re both a pain in the ass.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Anyone who had been reading these rants for any length of time ought to understand that I have nothing but a low regard for the folks at the NCAA.  Given the effectiveness and the value-added that the NCAA provides to collegiate athletics, I think many of the people drawing paychecks there are nothing more than animated suit dummies.  Having said that, it is important to recognize the truth in the adage:

• Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

The rule makers and guardians of intercollegiate athletics have come to the conclusion that the “Transfer Portal” is out of control and needs “fixing”.  Give these minor functionaries credit for seeing that there is a problem; then ask yourself if they have moved to resolve it.

The NCAA Division 1 Council approved changes to the Transfer Portal that would affect all intercollegiate sports endeavors.  The headline news is that the Portal for football and for men’s and women’s basketball will be reduced from 60 days to 45 days.  Be still my heart while I process the significance of such a sea change…

Other intercollegiate sports will have different “portal windows” but this is the best “resolution” that the NCAA braintrust could come up with for the most visible activities involving the Transfer Portal.   Let me be brutally honest here:

• I do not care at all about college fencers who transfer from Hoity-Toity U to En Garde Tech.  I suspect that few if any other folks do either.

So, the net result of the changes made by the NCAA’s aminated suit dummies who saw there was “a problem” is to collapse the time available to an athlete seeking a transfer by 25%.  Please do not try to convince me that this is significant; if a college athlete – – nominally one who is intellectually worthy of being a college student – – cannot make a transfer decision in less than 6 weeks maybe they ought not be in college.  The Transfer Portal has myriad “issues”, but the length of time given to the athletes to conclude their negotiations regarding where they will play next is probably about Priority 42.  As is always the case when cosmetic changes are made to entities or processes that have major flaws, there are carefully worded statements by the folks making the cosmetic changes.  The chair of the Division 1 Council had this to say:

“In both men’s and women’s basketball, the council determined that a 45-day window that concludes on or before May 1 best enables coaches to understand their current rosters, provides stability for student-athletes remaining at the school as they prepare for summer basketball, and encourages student-athletes who intend to transfer to do so before final exams at their current schools and summer school application deadlines at most campuses.  Moving forward, we will continue to evaluate the impact of transfer windows on student-athletes, coaches and athletics programs.”

The major issue with the coupling of NIL money plus the easy/unrestrained Transfer Portal is that college sports has become a giant free agent marketplace.  And the question for the fans of college sports – – you know, the ones who provide the support that translates into big time dollars for schools and conferences – – is simple:

• Assume your school does not compete well in this helter-skelter transfer portal environment, are you happy to see that your archrival has figured the system out better than your coaches/administrators have?

Here is my outline for how the Transfer Portal should operate.  Remember, the athletes who are thinking of using it are adults; they are eligible to vote; they can operate motor vehicles; they can purchase firearms in most states; they can serve in the military.  They are not naïve children.

• Any athlete in any sport can accept a scholarship at any school and subsequently determine that they made a bad choice.  Maybe the team environment doesn’t work; maybe the academics do not work; whatever …  The “first choice school” is not working and will not work.  That athlete should be able to transfer to any other NCAA school that would have them as a student with no penalty or obstacle such as a period of ineligibility.
• Here is where I get stubborn …  After transferring with no penalty, the athlete is in his second athletic-scholastic situation; if that one is not also to his/her liking, then maybe he/she needs to think about paying a price to try to find a third situation that works for them.  Remember, they are adults; they need to make choices in their lives and live with the consequences.  So, in my world construct, an athlete seeking a second transfer would need to spend one full calendar year at the “third school” before being eligible to play whatever sport they are in school to play.
•  And if it happens that the third school is also somehow unsuitable for the athlete, his next transfer would incur a two-year period of ineligibility.
• And I think you see where this is going into the future…

Let me channel Rhett Butler here.  Frankly, I don’t give a damn how long the transfer window is open.  That is not the issue that can eat at the fundamental fabric of college athletics which is something one might suspect the NCAA would care about.  But it is so convenient and so easy and so amenable to PR statements for the Division 1 Council to change the timing of the Transfer Portal that it is no surprise to me that they came to that conclusion.

Finally, let me close here with these words from the Roman poet, Horace:

“Our sires’ age was worse than our grandsires’.  We their sons are more worthless than they; so, in our turn, we shall give the world a progeny yet more corrupt.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

“Bait-and-switch” is a scam or a con wherein someone advertises an appealing product at a very attractive price with no intention of selling that product at all; rather, at the last moment an inferior product is substituted for the one that was advertised.  Often, bait-and-switch operations are illegal.

I went grazing on the Internet yesterday afternoon to check on the status of Jon Gruden’s lawsuit against the NFL for a whole bunch of things related to his being fired as the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders after some less than proper emails from him became known to the public.  As I have said here before, I am rooting for Gruden to be allowed to have his case heard in open court where evidence that is introduced is simultaneously available to the public.  Other than hoping for an open and public trial, I do not particularly care at this point if Gruden prevails in his lawsuit; I just want this one adjudicated in the public sphere.

The status of the case is pretty simple:

• The suit was filed about 2 years ago.  The NFL immediately sought to take it away from the Nevada State courts and to have the case decided by arbitration.
• Arbitration would provide a hearing for Gruden – – but none of the evidence would necessarily see the light of day.  The public would learn of the arbitration decision and not much more.
• The trial court in Nevada denied the NFL’s motion to reassign the matter to arbitration and the NFL naturally appealed that ruling.  The matter now resides with the Nevada Supreme Court; if that court upholds the trial court decision, the matter will remain in open court pending a likely appeal by the NFL to the US Supreme Court.

Basically, nothing much has happened in the case in more than a year and even if Gruden prevails in the Nevada Supreme Court, it looks as if it will be at least a couple more years before any final determination of the venue for the action is reached.  And, as I thought about the case status and the possible next steps along the path to resolution, I began to wonder if the NFL is simply doing a bait-and-switch here.

• The legal teams here are going through all their motions to reach a final conclusion on how this matter will be heard and decided.
• People like me who want to know what else might have been in the cache of emails that was not leaked to the NY Times and Wall Street Journal which kicked this snowball off the cliff in the first place continue to pay attention and hope for a trial in open court.
• However, in the end, that is probably not going to happen even if Jon Gruden wins at the US Supreme Court level because at that point the NFL can and would likely settle the matter out of court with a “sizeable” payment that only a business entity of the size and scope of the NFL can afford.

Now that I have composed these thoughts, maybe bait-and-switch is not the proper metaphor here.  Perhaps the better analogy is that I am Charlie Brown, and the NFL is Lucy holding the football for me to kick.  You know what Lucy does every time that situation obtains …

In another situation involving a fired football coach, Pat Fitzgerald has filed a lawsuit against Northwestern University alleging wrongful termination; he is seeking $130M from the university in the matter.  The suit alleges that Northwestern is in breach of two contracts (No, I do not know anything about multiple contracts), that the school defamed Fitzgerald and that Northwestern intentionally inflicted emotional distress on Fitzgerald.  Recall that Fitzgerald was initially suspended by the university for two weeks after allegations of hazing within the football program were investigated by the university.  At the time of the suspension, the university president said in a communication to the Northwestern community that the investigation did not find “any credible evidence that Coach Fitzgerald himself knew anything about it”.

Recall in the Watergate hearings, Senator Howard Baker (R-TN) framed the critical issue before the Select Committee as:

“What did the President know and when did he know it?”

It seems to me that is similarly a key question in this lawsuit against Northwestern University – – except the “president” in this matter is the president of a university and not the President of the United States.

And while we are flailing about in the legal soup related to fired football coaches, Mel Tucker is also reported to be gearing up a wrongful termination suit against Michigan State.  Tucker lost his job after he was accused of having phone sex with a woman without her consent.  I have not found any reports of a lawsuit having been filed, but lawyers representing Tucker did send a 106-page letter to the interim-president of Michigan State claiming to have evidence that the woman accusing Tucker in this matter “manipulated a key witness” and also “deleted key evidence”.

Three head football coaches; two wrongful termination lawsuits and probably a third; tens of millions of dollars involved in the “terminations for cause”; and I suspect that it will be at least 5 years before all three matters come to a close.  Sit back and enjoy the ride…

Finally, given the topic of the day, it seems appropriate for me to close with this trio of observations:

“The penalty for laughing in a courtroom is six months in jail; if it were not for this penalty, the jury would never hear the evidence.”  [H. L. Mencken]

And …

“Lawsuit, n:  A machine which you go into as a pig and come out as a sausage.”  [Ambrose Bierce]

And …

“If law school is so hard to get through, how come there are so many lawyers?  [Calvin Trillin]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The first round of the MLB playoffs produced four series sweeps.  The ongoing Division Series might produce two series sweeps, but if that happens it will be surprising.  The Astros and Twins are tied at 1 game each; the next two games will be in Minnesota.  The Phillies and the Braves are also tied at 1 game each and the next two games will be in Philly.  Both of those series have provided interesting and exciting baseball; I expect they will continue to do so.

The other two Division Series matchups are a bit surprising.  The Orioles had the best record in the American League in 2023 winning 101 games.  At home, the Orioles posted a winning percentage of .605.  Meanwhile, the Rangers won only 90 games this season and the Rangers had a slightly losing record on the road (40-41).  So, naturally, the Rangers went into Baltimore and won the first two games in the series.  Of course …

In one of the National League series, the D-Backs lead the Dodgers 2-0.  In the regular season the Dodgers won 100 games and had a home winning record of 53-28 (.654).  The Dodgers posted a run differential for the season of +207 runs.  Looking back at the regular season, the D-Backs limped into the playoffs having won 84 games and they were only 41-40 in road games.  In addition, and despite their winning record for the season, the D-Backs posted a negative run differential for the year (minus-15 runs).  So naturally, the D-Backs went into LA and won the first two games of the series – – outscoring the Dodgers 15-4.  Of course …

A lot of commentators are calling for a change in the playoff format because – – the argument goes – – teams with a BYE in the wildcard round get “rusty” waiting to play the winners of those wildcard series and so some of the “best teams” get eliminated quickly.  If you run across one of those arguments, please keep this in mind:

• If we knew for certain who the “best teams” – – or better yet, the “best team” – – at the end of the regular season, there would be no need for any playoffs of any kind including the World Series.
• These playoffs seek to determine the year’s “best team” on the field and not on the stat sheets.

The 2023 regular season was a very good one for MLB.  The overall attendance increased 9.6%; the total number of fans entering through the stadium turnstiles was 70,747,365 souls.  Even more important, only 4 of the 30 MLB teams saw a decline in attendance:

1. White Sox – – down 4,194 fans per game
2. Nats – – down 1,982 fans per game
3. Cardinals – – down 981 fans per game
4. Dodgers – – down 300 fans per game

Forget the Dodgers figure here; the Dodgers led MLB in average attendance with 47,371 fans per game; that decrease for this year is a blip.  The Cardinals had a miserable and disappointing season; the White Sox were similarly miserable and disappointing plus they had a shooting in their stadium which is of no promotional benefit and the Nats play in a front-running town and the Nats were never front-running this year.  The other 26 teams enjoyed average attendance increases ranging from the Phillies (+9,579 fans per game) to the NY Mets (+109 fans per game).

I would have to say that the rule changes that sped up games by an average of 24 minutes per game proved to be positive changes for the game.  TV ratings for nationally televised games were also up by 10% which is another positive sign for MLB.

Moving on …  The regular season in the Canadian Football League is winding down; their playoffs begin on November 4^th and the CFL championship game – – the Grey Cup – – will happen on November 19^th in Hamilton, ONT.  The CFL playoff format is similar to the MLB format.  Three teams from each division make the playoffs and the division winner gets a BYE Week.  The CFL has an odd number of teams so one team gets a “BYE Week” every week.  As of today, most of the CFL teams have played 16 games; two teams have played only 15 games; the regular season is 18 games long and has been that way since the 1980s.

The teams that will make the CFL playoffs in 2023 have pretty much been determined but there are still seeding issues to be resolved in the final games.

• In the East, the Toronto Argonauts will win the division and get the BYE.    The Montreal Alouettes and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will both make the playoffs, but it is not yet certain which team will finish second in the division and get a home game for the first playoff round.
• In the West, the Winnipeg Blue-Bombers lead the BC Lions by one game with two games left to play.  In addition the Saskatchewan Roughriders have two more wins than either of the teams chasing them, but the Roughriders have lost 5 games in a row.

Finally, let me close today with these words from author, Ambrose Bierce:

“Prayer, n:  To ask all the laws of the universe be annulled on behalf of a single petitioner confessedly unworthy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Miley Cyrus said:

“I take a hiatus every now and again, but I’m not good at it.”

Well, after my brief hiatus, let me say that I think I am quite good at it and that my long-suffering wife and I very much enjoyed ourselves over the past week and a half.  So, today will be the return of Football Friday and to get things started, let me review the “Betting Bundle” from two weeks ago:

• College:  1-3-0 => Cumulative:  3-4-0
• NFL:   0-0-0  => Cumulative:  4-3-0
• Parlays:  1-1  “Profit” = $119  =>  Cumulative:  3-2  “Profit” = $314

 

College Football Commentary :

 

            The Linfield College Wildcats extended their record to 3-0 by overwhelming conference foe, Willamette University by a score of 70-14.  This week, Linfield goes on the road to Portland, OR to take on the Lewis and Clark Pioneers.  Lewis and Clark is 2-2 on the season; they share one common opponent with Linfield.  Lewis and Clark also dominated Willamette two weeks ago by a score of 38-7.  Go Wildcats!

This weekend is the Texas State Fair and that means it is also the time for the Texas/Oklahoma football game – – dubbed the Red River Rivalry.  Over the past several years, this game had lost some of its historical luster; there were seasons where both teams were ranked in the Top Ten and this was a huge deal.  Well, both teams are ranked highly again this year; the AP has Texas ranked #3 and Oklahoma ranked #12.  Big game; big rivalry.

Another big game this week will be the Alabama/Texas A&M game in College Station, TX.  Both teams are undefeated in conference games; the winner here will not only take the lead in the SEC West, but it will also own the tiebreaker between the teams should that become necessary.  I know it is awfully early in the season to call this a “must win” game for either team or to say that the loser here will be eliminated from the SEC West race – – but the game does have that vibe …

Alabama coach, Nick Saban will have to deal with a coach this week who was once part of his staff in Jimbo Fisher.  Saban can also look at another coach in a big game this week who used to be part of his program at Alabama in Steve Sarkissian at Texas.  And don’t forget about Kirby Smart at Georgia too.  Saban has been a mentor to all three of those successful coaches which reminds me of an observation about mentors by the author Bo Sanchez:

“Getting a mentor is a shortcut to success.”

By the way, the plan for the SEC next year is to get rid of the East and West Divisions with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference.  The SEC Championship Game will simply pit the #1 team against the #2 team in the 16-team conference.

In the SEC East, there are 3 undefeated teams – – Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri – – and they all get to play one another.  And, Tennessee has only one loss this year meaning that if it runs the table, it will win the SEC East.  I know it’s early, but there is plenty of “sorting out” needed in the SEC East.

Penn State has been on a 10-game winning streak ever since losing to Ohio State last season.  The Nittany Lions should make that 11 games in a row when they host UMass next week after a BYE Week this week – – and then comes a road game at Ohio State.  Look forward to that one…

• [Aside:  This weekend, UMass is a 19-point underdog to Toledo.  Why are they going to play Penn State next week?]

Florida State is undefeated this year and has already played LSU and Clemson.  They had a BYE Week last weekend and now have 3 consecutive home conference games against Va Tech, Syracuse and Duke.  It is conceivable tat the Seminoles will be undefeated on Nov 11^th when they host the Miami Hurricanes and maybe on November 25^th when they visit Gainesville. FL to take on Florida.

When Ole Miss beat LSU 55-49 last week, it put Ole Miss in a position to win the SEC West and gave it a manageable schedule.  The Rebels do have a two-week rough spot to navigate in early November hosting Texas A&M one week and then traveling to play Georgia on the road the next week.

Just to track the Iowa scoring record for the season – – because Iowa’s offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’ job depends on it – – the Hawkeyes have scored 111 points in 5 games.  To keep his job, the team needs to average 25 points per game.  You do the math …  Oh, and by the way, Iowa starting QB, Cade McNamara will be out for the rest of the season.  Yowza!

• [Aside:  Iowa scored 26 points last week but 7 of them came on a punt return.  Do those count as part of the necessary 25-point average for the season?  Let the lawyers begin to parse the clauses in that contract…]

After two tough games in a row – – both resulting in losses – – Colorado takes on Arizona State and then Stanford over this weekend and next.  The Buffaloes have a rather clear path to bowl eligibility this year which is something that was not conceivable last year in Boulder, CO.

USC is one of the teams to beat Colorado in the last two weeks.  The Trojans ran off to a huge lead, but Colorado rallied to make the final score very respectable at 48-41.  USC is undefeated and ranked 10^th in the country this week – – but the Trojans’ defense is very suspect.

If you look at the AP rankings this week, you will find three Big-10 teams in the Top-6.  Once Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State get through playing one another – – as will happen since they are all in the same division – – that will all get sorted out.

Just an update on the “race to the bottom” to determine this year’s Brothel Defense Award which goes to the team that gives up the most points per game.  As of this morning, here are the “contenders”:

• North Texas giving up 43.0 points per game.
• UMass giving up 39.2 points per game.
• So. Mississippi giving up 39.0 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Syracuse at UNC – 9.5 (59.5):  Syracuse is 4-1 for the season and finds itself almost a “double-digit dog” on the road here.

Kentucky at Georgia – 14.5 (48):  Kentucky is undefeated this year and finds itself a two-touchdown plus a hook underdog on the road here.  Georgia is undefeated this year but against Division 1-A teams the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 against the spread.  I can’t see Kentucky winning this one, but I do think they can hang with Georgia here based on their running game.  I’ll take Kentucky plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU – 4.5 at Missouri (65):  The spread opened the week at 7 points and has shrunk to this level over the course of the week.  Meanwhile the Total Line opened the week at 62.5 points and has expanded over the course of the week.  The oddsmakers did not anticipate the money that would come in on this game very well last Sunday night.

Oklahoma at Texas – 6 (60):  This is my “College Game of the Week”.  The winner here has a clear shot to be on the short list for the CFP come December.  I see this game as an offensive explosion, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Arizona at USC – 22 (71):  If you like a good defensive battle, do not watch this game.

Oregon St. – 9 at Cal (51):  The Beavers are 4-1 and are coming off an upset win over Utah last week.  Yes, I know; Utah still does not have its starting QB ready for action; nonetheless consider this stat from the game:

• Oregon State ran for 227 yards against a Utah defense that had only been giving up 51.5 yards per game this year.

Cal is 3-2 this year but against its only “tough opponent” so far, they were dominated 59-32 by Washington.

Alabama – 1 at Texas A&M (47):  I came close to putting the “College Game of the Week” on this game.  The spread opened the week at 3.5 points and has been slowly dropping all week long.  I am more interested in the Total Line here.  Both teams play good defense and neither team offers an explosive offense.  So, absent defensive scores or special teams scores, I am not sure where the 48^th point will come from.  So, I’ll take this game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Dick Butkus died yesterday at the age of 80.  He was the middle linebacker that every NFL and AFL team wanted to have on its roster in the 1960s and early 1970s.  He played the game with a ferocity that was unmatched.  Off the field, Butkus was soft-spoken and thoughtful; he spent time after his playing days came to an end due to knee injuries in the broadcasting booth and as an actor for movies and TV.

Rest in peace, Dick Butkus.

#2 son likes to ferret out trivia questions for me.  He ran across some “standings” that were created by someone who obviously wanted to make the NFL schedule seem like the MLB schedule so he – – I am assuming that only a guy would do something like this – – went back and compiled the record for all 32 NFL teams over their last 162 games.  The math is not hard, but it is a lot of work to – – seemingly – – no significant end.

In any event, #2 son posed this challenge to me:

• The “Top-5” NFL teams all have 100 wins or more over their last 162 games; name them.

I got three of the “Top-5”.  The Chiefs, Pats and Steelers all had 100 wins or more.  I whiffed on the other two which were the Seahawks and the Packers.

Naturally, as the presiding officer here in Curmudgeon Central, I wanted to know who the “Bottom-5” were.  Again, three of the five were pretty obvious – – Bears, Browns and Jags.  I thought the Lions would be in the “Bottom 5”, but they were not.  So, I will pose the question to you here:

• Who are the other two teams to join the Bears, Browns and Jags on this “Bottom-5” List?
• The answer will be a few paragraphs later…

I also got an email from a former colleague who sent along a trivia fact but did not use it to pose a question.  It is interesting by itself:

• The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers had a Top-5 pick in the NFL Draft was in 1970 when they used that pick to take QB Terry Bradshaw.

David Carr – – Derek Carr’s older brother – – currently holds the unenviable record for taking the most sacks in an NFL season.  That happened when David Carr was the rookie QB for the expansion Houston Texans in 2002.  Carr was sacked 76 times in that season; only he and Randall Cunningham had the great honor to be sacked more than 70 times in a season.  Carr’s record would seem to be in jeopardy as of this morning:

• Sam Howell (Commanders) has been sacked 24 times in 4 games.  For a 17-game season that projects to 102 sacks for the season.
• Daniel Jones (Giants) has been sacked 22 times in 4 games.  For a 17-game season that projects to 93.5 sacks for the season.

Yes, it is a small sample size, but at anything near this pace, both Howell and Jones will blow by Carr’s record sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

The Green Bay Packers have an unusual aspect to their schedule.  Their last game was on Thursday September 28^th when they lost to the Lions 34-20.  This weekend they do not play until Monday night.  That is an 11-day “respite”.  But wait, there’s more …  After playing the Raiders this Monday night, the Packers get their BYE Week; their next game would be on October 22^nd meaning the Packers will play one game in 23 days.  That does not happen to NFL teams routinely.

• Trivia Answer:  the other two teams on the “Bottom-5” list from above at the Jets and the Giants.

I am not going to go through all the games from the past two weeks with comments on all of them – – but there are some that seem worthy of note.

Texans 30   Steelers 6:  Who saw this coming?   The Texans rookie QB didn’t look like a rookie here throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns in the game and the Texans posted 450 total yards on offense.  I said a couple of weeks ago that Steelers’ Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada, has not been very capable over the last year or so with the team and he outdid his incompetence in this game.  The Steelers only generated 53 yards on offense in the first half here.

Seahawks 24  Giants 3:  Daniel Jones did nothing in that game to take the edge off his label of “Prime time flop”.  To be fair, he was sacked 11 times in the game meaning the Giants’ OL was playing their usual brand of failed pass protection.

Chargers 24  Raiders 17:  The Raiders’ defense showed up this week but having to start a rookie QB, Aiden O’Connell, did not allow the Raiders’ offense to keep up its end of the bargain in this game.  O’Connell did not throw up on his shoes in his first NFL start but he made plenty of “rookie mistakes” including losing two fumbles and taking 7 sacks in the game.  The Chargers’ defense played without Joey Bosa in the game, but Khalil Mack asserted himself with the following results:

• 10 tackles, 9 QB pressures, 2 forced fumbles and 6 QB sacks.

Not a bad day at the office …

Ravens 28  Browns 3:  The Browns never got to the Rad Zone until late in the 4^th quarter when the outcome was already decided.  Deshaun Watson was a late scratch from the game with a “shoulder injury”; so, the Browns were forced to start a rookie quarterback making his first career start resulting in a disaster for the offense. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, the Browns mustered all of 166 yards of offense and Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions.   The Browns get a BYE this week – – maybe just in time???

Broncos 31  Bears 28:  The Broncos were getting pantsed by the worst team in the NFL until late in the 3^rd quarter when the Broncos saved face with a stunning comeback from a 28-7 deficit. The Broncos’ defense played well in the second half slowing down Justin Fields.  The Broncos’ defense forced two turnovers in the second half including a defensive TD on a “Scoop-and-Score) to tie the game at 28.  In the first half, Justin Fields looked like the Bears’ QB of the future: he started the game with 16 straight complete passes and had 231 yards and three touchdowns in that first half. But the Bears reverted to form late in the game.  Here are the results of their last 4 possessions that began with the Bears leading 28-14 with only seconds remaining in the 3^rd quarter:

• 3 plays – – 10 yards – – 1:18 time of possession – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 10 yards – – 2:41 time of possession – – LOST FUMBLE
• 11 plays – – 57 yards – – 4:03 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 7 plays – – 22 yards – – 1:14 time of possession – – INT

Bills 48  Dolphins 20:  Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs connected for three touchdowns on the day.  The Dolphins’ defense was overwhelmed.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ offense – – the one that had scored 70 points the week before this one against the Broncos just could not keep pace.

Eagles 34  Commanders 31 (OT):  The Eagles remain unbeaten for the season and the Commanders demonstrated that they are not the mediocre team they have been for the last several seasons.  The big difference in the game was the inability of the Commanders to deal with Eagles WR, AJ Brown who had 9 receptions for 175 yards and 2 TDs for the game.

By the way, in last week’s games, it seems as if some NFL offensive units set their alarm clocks for the wrong time.  Consider:

• The Giants, Browns, Bengals and Pats scored only 3 points in their games.
• The Steelers scored 6 points in their game.
• The Falcons scored 7 points in their game.
• The Saints scored 9 points in their game.

Seven NFL teams did not reach double-digits last week …

In last night’s NFL action, the Bears won their first game of the year defeating the Commanders 40-20.  On one hand, the Bears deserved to win this game; they produced a balanced 451 yards on offense and did not turn the ball over.  The Bears played sound football.

I try not to use “gutter language” in these rants, but I think the appropriate way to describe the Commanders’ performance last night is that they “shat the bed”.  And that description applies to the offense, the defense and the play-calling on both offense and defense.  Specifically regarding the play-calling on offense, the Commanders “ran the ball” only 10 times in the game but even that statistic is inflated because 4 of those runs were scrambles by Sam Howell.  In reality, they ran the ball 6 times in the game.  That is not innovative or creative; that is dumb particularly when the QB is being hurried or hit on at least 75% of those pass attempts.  The Bears as a team had 2 sacks coming into this game; they recorded 5 sacks against the Commanders’ offensive line whose only “offensive” trait was its breath.

On defense, the Commanders have 6 first-round picks in their starting lineup.  That amalgamation allowed Justin Fields to produce 282 yards passing with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.  Ladies and gentlemen, Justin Fields is not going to be named as the All-Pro QB in the NFL this year.  Every Commanders’ player who suited up for last night’s game ought to be embarrassed this morning.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

BYE Weeks start now.  This week these teams will not see action:

1. Browns:  The Browns may not be a great team – – but they are a lot better with Deshaun Watson at QB – – and he can use another week off to get healthy.
2. Bucs:  The Bucs are 3-1 and lead the NFC South; I’m not sure they would prefer to have this week off.
3. Chargers:  The Chargers are averaging 27.5 points per game, and they are only 2-2 for the season.  They need to do something to get their defense right.
4. Seahawks:   The Seahawks are one game behind the niners in the NFC West, but their only loss was in a division game at home.  That could hurt them down the line.

            Before getting to the individual games, allow this overview comment.  There are many marginally interesting contests on the schedule for this weekend.  Picking the Game of the Week was a no-brainer; picking a single Dog-Breath Game of the Week was a challenge.

Jags at Bills – 6 (48):  This is a “London Game” with a wrinkle.  The Jags are playing in London for the second straight week; the Bills are crossing the pond this week.  Thanks, but no thanks on this game as a wagering proposition for me…

Texans at Falcons – 2 (41):  This line feels to me like leaning toward a home team because the visiting team is young and inexperienced.  You can call me out on this in a year or two, but I think the Falcons will win in spite of Desmond Ridder and not because of him.  I don’t know what may happen this weekend, but I think the Texans are on a better trajectory for the future than are the Falcons.

Panthers at Lions – 9 (44):  The line opened the week at 7 points; it expanded to 10 points in mid-week and seems to have settled at this number for now.  I think the Panthers are overmatched here and I think the Lions under Dan Quinn will not take their foot off the gas.  I like the Lions to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans – 2.5 at Colts (43):  The week opened with the Colts as 1.5-point favorites in the game, but all the momentum has been toward the Titans this week.  All four teams in the AFC South are 2-2 this morning, so this is an “important game” even if it is only Week 5.

Giants at Dolphins – 12.5 (47.5):  The Giants are awful; there is no way to sugar-coat that.  The Dolphins may not be as great as they seemed scoring 70 points against the Broncos, but they are clearly the better team here.  Losing to this Giants’ team would be an embarrassment of gargantuan proportion for the Dolphins.  The only reason I will not take the Dolphins and lay the points is that I do not play NFL games with double-digit spreads.

Saints at Pats “pick ‘em” (39.5):  This is the sort of team the Pats are designed to beat – – a team that does not score a lot of points which allows the Pats’ defense to smother them.  The Saints average 15.2 points per game this year.  No fireworks in this contest; the first team to 20 points is the winner.

Ravens – 4 at Steelers (38):  These AFC North division games usually end with the winner eking out a victory by a point or two and with the winner also looking as if he had been in a rock fight.  The Steelers’ offense is pathetic – – but the Steelers’ defense always shows up to play against Lamar Jackson.  There is some question about the Steelers’ QB situation.  If Kenny Pickett cannot go, that means Mitchell Trubisky against the Ravens’ defense and if that is the case, the Steelers’ defense will need to be close to perfect to make this a game.

Bengals – 3 at Cards (45):  The Bengals are 1-3; if they lose this game, they may just be done for the year in terms of “Super Bowl aspirations”.  Everything hinges on the lingering calf injury to Joe Burrow; if he is “healed”, the Bengals are the better team; if not …

Eagles – 4 at Rams (50): The spread here opened with the Eagles as 6-point favorites and the Total Line was set at 46.5 points.  There has been plenty of line movement in this one.  The Eagles are still unbeaten in 2023 but they have hardly appeared to be any sort of juggernaut; their point differential is only +28 points which is less than six other teams in the NFL five of which have a loss on their record.

Jets at Broncos – 2.5 (43.5):  You guessed it; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Can the Jets’ offense click here to save face for their OC, Nathanial Hackett?  The Jets may not even need that to win because the Jets’ defense ought to be able to contain Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense.  I rarely make a pick in the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but I think the wrong team is favored here.  Give me the Jets on the road plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Chiefs – 3.5 at Vikes (52.5):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and shrunk to this level as the week wore on.  The Vikes won last week to get off the schneid for 2023 but I have difficulty seeing the Vikes’ defense containing the Chiefs’ offense.  I like the Chiefs on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Cowboys at Niners – 3 (45):  This is so obviously the Game of the Week that I will entertain no debate on the topic.  Both teams are on a roll.

• The Cowboys have 3 wins this year – – by margins of 40 points, 20 points and 35 points.
• Somehow, the Cowboys managed to lose to the Cards along the way.
• The Niners are undefeated this year and have given up only 14.5 points per game.

(Mon Nite) Packers at Raiders – 1 (44):  Both teams looked bad, bad, bad in their last game.  The Raiders could only score 17 points against the Chargers’ defense and the Packers were pushed around by the Lions.  The Packers are the better team; the Raiders are at home; if you want to bet on this game, just bet on the coin flip.

So let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Texas/Oklahoma OVER 60
• Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER 47
• Kentucky +14.5 against Georgia
• Lions – 9 over Panthers
• Jets + 2.5 against Broncos
• Chiefs – 3.5 over Vikes

And just for fun here are three Money Line Parlays for the Week

• Jets @ +125
• Lions @ minus- 470
• $100 wager to win $173.

And …

• Texans @ +115
• Chiefs @ minus- 180
• $100 wager to win $234.

And …

• Lions @ minus-470
• Dolphins @ minus- 600
• Chiefs @ minus-180
• $100 wager to win $120.

Finally, I’ll close this Football Friday with an observation by former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden about one of his players:

“He doesn’t know the meaning of the word “fear”.  In fact, I just saw his grades and he doesn’t know the meaning of a lot of words.”

But don’t get me wrong, I Iove sports………

 

 

So much for the drama provided by a final playoff game in the wildcard round of the MLB playoffs this year.  All four series ended as 2-0 sweeps for the winning sides.  Baseball does not have a long history of expanded playoffs, but this is the first time that has ever happened.  That means all the teams moving on to the next round get today and tomorrow off and the next tranche of games will begin on Saturday afternoon.

The Twins won their series over the Blue Jays and by doing so they snapped a huge losing streak in post-season games.  Before this year, the last time a Twins team won a playoff game was back in 2004; the Twins had lost 18 playoff games in a row since then.  Now they have a two-game winning streak in post-season play.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Rays.  Not only did they lose their series 2-0, but they were also outscored 11-1 in those two losses to the Rangers.  The Rays started the season winning their first 13 games; they just missed winning 100 games over the course of the regular season and now they are out of the playoffs after two embarrassing losses.

The Phillies saw Bryson Stott hit a grand slam home run to seal the win in Game 2 of their series against the Marlins.  Stott has not hit a grand slam in any regular season game in his career, but he now has one in the playoffs.

The next round of the playoffs sets up like this:

• Orioles/Rangers
• Astros/Twins
• Braves/Phillies
• Dodgers/D-Backs

Before I leave the broad topic of the MLB playoffs, I have to note an embarrassing and recurring problem for MLB.  The Tampa Bay Rays were the host team for the series against the Twins; the Rays won 99 games in the regular season; they are “regulars” in the post-seasons of recent years.  For the first game of this year’s playoff series, the attendance was an embarrassing 19,704 people.  Here is some perspective on that attendance figure:

• For the 2023 regular season, 26 of the 30 MLB teams had an average attendance greater than 19,704 people.
• For the regular season, the Rays average attendance was 17,781.  The fact that there was a playoff game in town only added about 250 fans to the audience.
• Ignoring the playoffs in 2020 that had the overhang of the COVID-19 pandemic, the last time there was a baseball playoff game with a smaller attendance was all the way back in 1919.

The Rays have had attendance issues ever since the franchise came into existence.  The location and the ambience of the existing park has been identified as the cause of the poor attendance leading to the tacit assumption that a new park in a new location will cure “the problem”.  Well, maybe that is the case and maybe not.  And I suspect that the Rays and the city fathers in St. Petersburg do not think that a new stadium is a panacea; here is why:

• The new stadium design in St. Petersburg announced a couple of weeks ago calls for a seating capacity of 30,000 people.
• Seventeen of the thirty MLB teams had an average attendance greater than 30,000 folks in 2023.

Moving on …  FIFA had two serious competing bids in hand for the 2030 World Cup.  Both bids involved three countries:

1. Argentina/Paraguay/Uruguay bid to host those games citing the fact that the first World Cup tournament ever was played in Uruguay in 1930.
2. Morocco/Portugal/Spain bid to host the games citing the fact that it would be the first time the games would be played on two different continents.

FIFA announced that the Morocco/Portugal/Spain bid was the one that would proceed BUT to honor the historical significance of the centennial anniversary of the World Cup, there would be three opening round games played in Argentina/Paraguay and Uruguay.  Somewhere, King Solomon is smiling …

You need not shed crocodile tears for those three countries in South America for losing this bid to host the World Cup.  The fact is that hosting huge events like the World Cup and/or the Olympics is usually a significant drag on the economies of smaller national economies.  Two examples:

1. When Brazil hosted the World Cup in 2014, the country invested multiple millions of dollars building stadiums that would be appropriate for such a big event.  One of those stadiums is currently used as a parking lot for trucks and school buses.
2. When Greece hosted the Olympics in 2004, it invested multiple millions of dollars building a venue for the Opening Ceremonies and for a Velodrome.  Just this week it was announced that both facilities must be closed for safety reasons.  In less than 20 years, they have fallen into disrepair – – caused by a lack of usage of the facilities – – such that they are now a safety hazard.

Finally, I’ll close today with these words from former Harvard president, Dr. James B. Conant:

“There is only one proved method of assisting the advancement of pure science – that of picking men of genius, backing them heavily and leaving them to direct themselves.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Some phenomena repeat themselves with such regularity that we take them for granted.  The sun rises in the east and then sets in the west yesterday, today and tomorrow.  The tide comes in and then the tide goes out every six hours or so.  Around these parts, when Friday shows up on the calendar in Autumn or early Winter, it is time for Football Friday.  So let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College:  0-1-0   => Season total:  2-1-0
• NFL:  1-1-0   => Season total:  4-3-0
• Money Line Parlays:  1-0   => Season total:  2-1   Net “Profit” = $195

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats came home from their visit to Redlands, CA with another win last week defeating the Redlands University Bulldogs 17-10.  This gives the Wildcats a 2-0 record in 2023 and it concludes their out-of-conference schedule for the season.  This week, Linfield hosts the Willamette Bearcats in McMinnville, OR.  Willamette brings a 1-2 record to the kickoff; they won their opening game but have struggled badly in their last two games, losing by a combined score of 87-14.  Go Wildcats!

Long term readers here will recall that I proposed a reorganized college football structure about 5 years ago that involved regionally based conferences and which incorporated the idea of promotion and relegation among levels of the game.  Obviously, that never happened; but according to a report this week at frontofficesports.com the Athletic Director at Boise State, Michael Walsh, is thinking about a reorganized structure for college football in the West that could involve promotion and relegation.

For details about his proposal and the level of thought that has gone into it – – there is a 22-slide Power-Point presentation that exists for the plan – – please follow the link above.  The idea makes some sense even though it has a thousand obstacles that could render it moot.  It could easily suffer from being nibbled to death by ducks.  But I think the important thing here is that someone in the “college football business” and someone who holds a position of some authority and prestige has spent time and effort thinking about a plan for implementation here.

Necessity is the mother of invention (Hat tip to Plato here).  The expansion of the Big-10 and the Big-12 Conferences that have caused the PAC-12 to shrink down to the PAC-2 in the near future have made it important to rethink college football in the Western US where the PAC-12 used to rule, and the Mountain West was the “other kid on the block”.  Walsh’s proposal is a structure for football only for teams in the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones.  I do not think I can summarize the proposal fairly here; so, I urge those that think this might be an interesting thing to add to the college football mix to go and read this report.

There were not a lot of “important games” on the schedule for last week but I think one deserves mention here.  Alabama was coming off a loss at home to Texas by double-digits and was facing a USF team that has not beaten a Division 1-A team since October 2021.  Alabama was a 34.5-point favorite in the game, and it won by a score of only 17-3.  Jalen Milroe was the QB against Texas; he was benched in favor of Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson.  Those two replacements combined to generate 107 yards passing on 23 pass attempts. In fact, Alabama only outgained USF by 46 yards on offense for the game.  I said last week after the loss to Texas that I would not be surprised if Alabama lost again in 2023; looking at this result, there are a handful of games where Alabama could struggle and possibly lose.

Last week, I pointed out that the SEC might not have the depth of good teams that it has had for the past several years.  Well, that same situation could easily obtain in the Big-12.  Check out these happenings from last week:

• Baylor played Division 1-AA LIU and did not put the game away until the 4^th quarter.
• Cincy lost outright to Miami (OH) – – a MAC team.
• Iowa State lost outright to Ohio – – another MAC team.
• K-State was ranked #15 and lost to Missouri.
• Texas beat Wyoming – – but the score was tied at the start of the 4^th quarter.

None of those showings were laudatory to be sure, but possibly the most embarrassing performance by a Big-12 team last week was turned in by Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys were at home playing South Alabama from the mighty Sun Belt Conference.  Oklahoma State was pushed around at home in the game losing 33-7 and giving up 243 yards rushing for the day.  The South Alabama defense held Oklahoma State’s passing attack to 3.3 yards per pass attempt.  Wow!

I know it is early in the season and we are only looking at a small sample size and yada-yada; but at the end of the season, I will point out the team that earned the Brothel Defense of the Year Award given to the team that gives up the most points per game for the season.  Brothel Defense … everyone scores there … get it?  Well after 3 games the team in the lead for this “distinction” is the Mean Green from North Texas; they are giving up 47.0 points per game and have yet to hold an opponent under 35 points.

Looking at some of the games from last week:

Washington 41  Michigan St. 7:  Do not sleep on Washington; their defense in 2023 looks to be almost as good as their offense.  The Michigan State score came in the 4^th quarter with Washington leading 41-0; it was a meaningless TD.  The domination of the Huskies in this game is shown here:

• Washington total offense = 713 yards
• Michigan St. total offense = 261 yards

And …

• Washington pass offense = 31 of 39 for 536 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT
• Michigan St. pass offense = 14 of 35 for 208 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Fla St 31  BC 29:  BC scored 13 points in the 4^th quarter to make this a nail-biter and they outgained Fla St by 117 yards on offense.  BC committed 18 penalties in the game (for a total of 131 yards) giving the Seminoles 4 first downs via charity.  While BC scored TDs on 2 of its final 3 possessions in the game, Fla State punted 3 times and lost a fumble on a fourth possession in the second half.  The Seminoles did not look like a Top-Five team this week.

Wake Forest 27  Old Dominion 24:  ODU led 17-0 at halftime and 24-7 with 7 minutes left in the 3^rd Quarter.  After that, here were the ODU possessions:

• 3 plays and a PUNT’
• 4 plays and a PUNT
• 5 plays and a FUMBLE
• 3 plays and a PUNT
• 4 plays and a TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Wake outgained ODU by 108 yards for the day.  Three turnovers including two that were defensive TDs made this a close game.

Penn State 30  Illinois 13:  The Nittany Lions only outgained the Illini by 29 yards in this game.  In fact, Illinois had one more first down in the game compared to Penn State.    The difference was in the turnovers; Illinois turned it over 5 times (4 INTs and a lost fumble) and Penn State did not turn the ball over at all.

Ohio 10  Iowa St. 7:  I mentioned this game in passing above; it was a horrid loss for the Cyclones to a MAC team.  The Cyclones only managed to develop 271 yards total offense in the game – – but that was 24 yards more than Ohio generated.  Two turnovers by Iowa St and 5 big penalties earned them this embarrassing loss.

Miami (OH) 31  Cincy 24  (OT):  I also mentioned this game in passing above.  It is not a good look for a “Big-12 team” to go to overtime – – let alone lose a football game – – to a “MAC-team”.  Cincy dominated the stat sheet outgaining Miami by 180 yards for the game.  The Bearcats ran 91 plays to only 49 plays for Miami.  Ten penalties and 2 turnovers did Cincy in here.

Missouri 30  K-State 27:  The difference was a 61-yard field goal by the Tigers with no time left in the game.  It happens to be the longest field goal in the history of all SEC teams.  K-State was ranked #15 in the country coming into this game.  Yes, this was a loss for a well-regarded Big-12 team, but Mizzou is an SEC team not a MAC team!

Texas 31  Wyoming 10:  The score was tied 10-10 as the fourth quarter started.  Two offensive TDs and a Pick-6 by Texas in the 4^th quarter made the game seem much less competitive than it was.

Georgia 24  S. Carolina 14:  Georgia trailed 14 – 3 at halftime but the Georgia defense asserted itself in the second half pitching a shutout; here were the Gamecocks’ possessions in the second half:

• 3 plays – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 9 plays – – INT
• 5 plays – – INT

Iowa 41  W. Michigan 10:  The offense came alive against what must be a less-than-wonderful defense.  The Hawkeyes are currently averaging 28.3 points per game; Iowa Offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz, and his job are “safe” – – for the moment…

Florida 29  Tennessee 16:  The Vols were a fashionable pick to challenge Georgia for SEC supremacy this year.  That’s not gonna happen now …  This was a dominating win by Florida; the Gators opened the game with a drive that resulted in a blocked field goal but that did not deter the Gators’ offense.  After that setback, they scored TDs on their next 4 possessions in the first half.

Utah 31  Weber St. 10:  Utah stays undefeated with this comfortable win.  The Utes’ defense was overwhelming here allowing only 127 yards of offense by Weber St. for the day.  That figure is even more shocking when you realize that Weber St. had one running play that went for 47 yards; so, the rest of the day only produced 80 yards of offense.

UNC 31  Minnesota 13:  Drake Maye produced this stat line for the Tar Heels:

• 29 of 40 for 414 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs

Nate McCollum caught 15 of those passes for 165 yards and 1 TD.  Minnesota’s total offense for the game was only 303 yards.

Colorado 43  Colorado St. 35 (2OT):  Colorado St. outgained the Buffaloes for the day 499 yards to 418 yards.  Once again, the Colorado running game was anemic, gaining only 70 yards on 25 rushes.  Colorado was a 23.5-point favorite in the game.  The game was a flag-fest.  Officials enforced 27 penalties in the game and 17 were against Colorado State for a total of 177 yards.  YOWZA!

Arkansas St. 31  Stoney Brook 7:  Yes, Arkansas St. won a game – – but Stoney Brook is a winless Division 1-AA team that has yet to come within 3 TDs of an opponent.  I still think Arkansas St. is a bad football team for 2023 …

Sacramento St. 30  Stanford 23:  Losing to a Division 1-AA is not a good way to lead into a team’s PAC-12 schedule…   Stanford faces conference opponents from here on out until November 25^th when they play another out-of-conference game – – against Notre Dame.

 

College Football Games of interest:

 

This week James Madison is visiting Utah State and Appalachian State is off to play Wyoming.  How did those games get scheduled? 

Miami – 23.5 at Temple (47.5):  The oddsmaker is showing respect to the Temple defense with that Total Line.  The Hurricanes have scored 134 points in 3 games (44.6 points per game), and he has the Total Line at 47.5 points.

New Mexico at UMass – 3.5 (51):  UMass is favored in the game.  How bad must New Mexico be?

Florida State – 1 at Clemson (55):  The spread started the week as a “pick ‘em game” but the like has moved in Florida State’s direction.  This is the College Game of the Week.  The Seminoles eked out a win over BC last week (see above); perhaps they were looking ahead to this clash?  This game has division and conference title implications along with possible invitations to the CFP.  I like Florida State this year; I don’t know if they are “national championship material” but I think they are very good.  Give me Florida State to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Rutgers at Michigan – 24 (44):  Rutgers is 3-0 so far in 2023 with wins over Northwestern, Temple and Va Tech.  I doubt that is a springboard to a victory over a Michigan team that has only allowed 5.3 points per game so far this year.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State – 3 (36):  Both teams wet the bed last week (see above).

Arizona – 13 at Stanford (61):  I think Stanford is pretty bad but there is no way I would trust Arizona enough to lay 13 points unless the opponent was the children who sing the Kars 4 Kids song on TV.

Oregon State – 3 at Washington State (58):  Next year, this game could be for the championship of the PAC-2.  Do not sleep on either of these teams; they can be a tough opponent on any given weekend.

Maryland – 7.5 at Michigan State (53):  The Michigan State program is in disarray now; losing at home to the likes of Maryland will not make the big-money folks involved with Sparty happy at all.

Ole Miss at Alabama – 7.5 (55.5):  I think this is a “down year” for Alabama meaning they will only be in the Top 25 in the country as opposed to the Top 5.  And I think that line is fat because lots of people still think this is a powerhouse Alabama squad.  I like Ole Miss plus the points here – – particularly the hook on top of the full TD – – so put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Auburn at Texas A&M – 9 (51):  Huge Freeze at Auburn and Bobby Petrino at Texas A&M are both up-tempo offensive coaches.  Auburn averages 34.3 points per game so far this year and the Aggies average 44 points per game.  Granted, each squad will face a better defense here than they have seen to date but still …  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ohio State – 3 at Notre Dame (55):  This was my runner-up College Game of the Week; if the teams were in the same conference, it would have earned that title.  If Ohio State gets solid production from its QB in the game, they will beat the Irish – – but that has not been any sort of comfort zone for the Buckeyes so far this season.  Just watch this one and enjoy the game.

Penn State – 15 at Iowa (39):  The attraction in this game is how many points Iowa scores and what that might that do to Brian Ferentz’ contract come December.

Colorado at Oregon – 21 (70):  The spread opened at 16.5 points and has ballooned to this level over the course of the week.  Meanwhile, the Total Line opened at 73 and has inched down to this level.  I like the game to go OVER – – maybe way over; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Last Monday, I got an email from a former colleague asking me which NFL head coach would be the first one to be fired this year.  His nominee for that “honor” was Matt Eberflus of the Bears and his projected date was October 23^rd.  The Chicago Bears are indeed a hot mess; they had the worst record in the NFL last year at 3-14 losing their last 10 games in a row; they chose to trade away the overall #1 pick and stick with Justin Fields as their developing QB-of-the-Future.  That decision does not look good in the short term; to date in 2023, Justin Fields has not shown significant progress in terms of passing accuracy or passing decision making.

But wait; there’s more …  The Bears’ defense is not about to come to the team’s rescue.  Last year, the Bears’ defense gave up 463 points (27.2 per game) – – the most in the NFL.  After two weeks in the current season, the Bears’ defense has allowed 65 points in 2 games – – not good at all.  And to make sure things on the defensive side of the ball continue according to some sort of plan, the Bears’ defensive coordinator just resigned today – – to focus on his health and his family.

The Bears go to KC this week to play the Chiefs and the Bears are 13-point underdogs in the game.  With a loss there, the 2023 record will sink to 0-3 and the losing streak will extend to 13 games in a row.  Matt Eberflus may indeed not make it until November as the head coach of the Bears.

I would suggest that there is another head coach who needs to be walking on eggs these days.  Brandon Staley’s time with the LA Chargers has been disappointing to say the least and in a way it is mysterious.  Staley is a “defensive guy”; the Chargers have a better than average offense; so, one should expect the team to be successful.  Not so, last year the team made the playoffs and led the Jags by 27 points late in the first half of the game only to lose the game and be eliminated from the playoffs.  That defensive lapse seems to have carried over to this year.  The Chargers are winless in 2023 even though they have scored 58 points in those two games and the Chargers have yet to turn the ball over this year.

The Bears are not as good a team as the Chargers so that might put Eberflus ahead of Staley in this race to the bottom – – except that the Chargers were a playoff team last year and lots of folks thought they would be one again this year; so, expectations for the Chargers were higher than those for the Bears.  Stay tuned …

I mentioned that the Bears’ defensive coordinator resigned this week; he has not done a great job in his tenure with the Bears.  There is another coordinator in the league that should be on a short leash.  Matt Canada is the offensive coordinator for the Steelers and – not to put too fine a point on it – – the Steelers’ offense stinks.  Canada has been the OC in Pittsburgh since January 2021, and the team has had to live and die with its defense for that entire time because the Steelers’ offense has been mediocre at best under Canada.

There is also some reason to be concerned for the well-being of Colts’ rookie QB, Anthony Richardson.  He is an exciting player and a great athlete; he is not only large for a QB, he is large for a linebacker; and he plays QB sort of the way one normally plays linebacker.  And that has not worked well in the first two weeks of the season:

• Week 1:  Richardson had to leave the game with a knee injury that was described as not extremely serious, and that Richardson could have finished the game had it been close and had it been a playoff game.
• Week 2:  Richardson had to leave the game early in the first half with a concussion.  He did not return to the game.

Richardson has plenty of tools in his toolkit to make it as a QB in the NFL – – so long as he can keep his large and athletic body from breaking down.  Richardson’s style of play might be the biggest hurdle for him to overcome as his NFL career develops.

In last week’s games …

Ravens 27  Bengals 24:  The Bengals began the 2022 season at 0-2 and managed to make it to the AFC Conference Championship Game.  They have started 2023 with the same record … only this time both losses have been to division opponents.   This game was not nearly as close on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard.  The Ravens outgained the Bengals 415 yards to 282 yards.  The big difference was on the ground:

• Ravens gained 178 yards rushing.
• Bengals gained 66 yards rushing.

Joe Burrow was limping noticeably in the 4^th quarter of the game; he had a calf injury that kept him out of action for most of training camp.  The Bengals without a “fully functional Joe Burrow” are unlikely to climb out of their 0-2 hole as effectively as they did last year.

Colts 31  Texans 20:  The Texans held the ball for 35 minutes in the game, had 5 more first downs than the Colts, converted 9 of 19 times on 3^rd down and 2 of 2 tries on 4^th down, committed fewer penalties than the Colts, only turned the ball over once and lost the game by 11 points.  That is not easy to do.  As mentioned above, the bad news for the Colts is that Anthony Richardson had to leave the game under the concussion protocol in the second quarter and did not return to action.

Bucs 27  Bears 17:   Baker Mayfield had another good day throwing for over 300 yards and a TD and did not turn the ball over.  Justin Fields turned in another marginal performance throwing for 211 yards but also throwing 2 INTs – – one of which was a Pick-Six.  Here is another game that was closer on the scoreboard than on the stat sheet:

• Bucs Total Offense = 437 yards
• Bears Total Offense = 236 yards

The Bears offensive line did not protect Fields well — he got sacked six times — and even when he did have time to throw, he struggled to find any open receivers. The Bears might be the worst team in football.   On Christmas Eve the NFL will give us as a Christmas present the Arizona Cardinals at the Chicago Bears and that game may provide the answer to that question.

Chiefs 17  Jags 9:  The Chiefs amassed 399 yards on offense but put only 17 points on the scoreboard.  Twelve penalties on the Chiefs did not help their cause even a little bit.  The Chiefs led 14 -6 at the start of the 4^th quarter; in that quarter the Jags had 1^st and goal at the Chiefs’ 1-yardline.  All the Jags got out of that red zone possession was a field goal; that was the turning point of the game.

Falcons 25  Packers 24:   The Packers led 24-12 as the fourth quarter began but the Falcons put together three drives that resulted in a TD and then two field goals to win the game.  Meanwhile in the fourth quarter, here is what the Packers’ offense accomplished:

• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 5 yards – – PUNT
• 4 plays – – 0 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

As Porky Pig would say, “That’s all, Folks!”

Titans 27  Chargers 24 (OT):  The Titans failed to find the end zone in Week 1, but they found it 3 times against the Chargers’ defense.  The Titans held the ball for 36-and-a-half minutes in the game thanks to a rushing attack that provided 141 yards on 34 rushing attempts.  Ryan Tannehill was awful in Week 1 throwing 3 INTs against the Saints.  In this game against the Chargers’ defense, he was 20 of 24.

Bills 38  Raiders 10:  The stat sheet was as lopsided as the score in this one.  The Raiders were shut out in the second half of the game and were outgained 450 yards to 240 yards.  The Raiders only had the ball 3 times in the second half with these results:

• 4 plays – – 23 yards – – INT
• 4 plays – – 17 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 60 yards – – LOST FUMBLE

The Raiders’ defense was rarely able to pressure Josh Allen, who picked apart the secondary for three touchdowns.  Allen rebounded from his poor showing against the Jets in Week 1 posting this stat line against the Raiders’ defense:

• 31 of 37 for 274 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs

Meanwhile, on the other sideline, the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs – – who led the NFL in rushing last year – – was limited to minus-2 yards on 9 carries.

Seahawks 37  Lions 31 (OT):  The Lions erased a 10-point deficit in the 4^th quarter to force OT, but the Seahawks took the OT kickoff and marched down the field until Geno Smith hit Tyler Lockett in the end zone for the winning score.  The game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the field.

Giants 31  Cards 28:  Last week’s Dog-Breath Game of the Week lived up – – or down – – to its label.  The Cards led 20-0 at the half.  That meant the Giants spent the first 6 quarters of the 2023 season with a composite score of:

• Opponents  60
• Giants  0

Then the Cards showed why folks think they are the worst team in the league for 2023.  They still led 28-14 at the start of the 4^th quarter only to see the Giants score 17 unanswered points and win the game at the end.  Here are the Cards possessions in the 4^th quarter with the game on the line:

• 3 plays – – minus-1 yard – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-1 yard – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 19 yards – – END OF GAME

The silver lining here is that the Cardinals have played two competitive games through two weeks — they even led both games in the fourth quarter — but unfortunately for Arizona, there is no separate column in the standings for moral victories or “Games that the team played well in for a while…”

Niners 30  Rams 23:  The Rams held a slight advantage on the stat sheet in this game but 2 INTs in the second half by the Niners doomed the Rams.  The Rams’ rookie WR, Puka Nacua drafted in the fifth round this year out of BYU caught 15 passes for 147 yards in the game.  Remember his name; he has 25 pass receptions in his first two NFL games.  The Niners have what appear to be two “easy games” on the schedule next hosting both the Giants and then the Cards.  Then on October 8, the Niners go on the road to play the Cowboys in what should be a big game.

Cowboys 30  Jets 10:  Here is the good news for the Jets:

• Zach Wilson threw a TD pass and rushed for 36 yards in the game.

Here is the rest of the news for the Jets:

• Zach Wilson was 12 of 27 for 170 yards with 3 INTs

The Jets’ defense is very good, but it had to be on the field for more than 42 minutes in this game and that is no way to win a football game.

• Serious Question:  I know it is a small sample size, but is it possible that the Jets need to bench Zach Wilson and get another QB in there if they want a real shot at the playoffs?

Commanders 35  Broncos 33:  I said in my pre-season predictions that Commanders’ QB. Sam Howell looked like an NFL-caliber QB to me.  Well, he played his third game in the league last week and posted this stat line against a good-but-not great Broncos’ defense:

• 27 of 39 for 299 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs

The Broncos are 0-2 on the season with both losses coming at home – – not a good start for coach Sean Payton who you may recall went out of his way to criticize last year’s Broncos’ coach, Nathaniel Hackett.  The Broncos travel to Miami next week which should not be an easy game for them.  Meanwhile, the Commanders started the year 2-0 and have played solidly in both games.  The NFC East could be very interesting this year…

Dolphins 24  Pats 17:  This game never felt as if it was this close; it seemed as if the Dolphins were in charge from start to finish.  The Pats have opened the 2023 season at 0-2 with both losses in Foxboro; that is not something the Pats’ fans are used to by any stretch of the imagination.  College teammates, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, posted similar stat lines:

• Tua:  21 of 30 for 239 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT
• Mac:  31 of 42 for 231 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

Dolphins’ RB, Raheem Mostert ran for 121 yards on 18 carries and 2 TDs in the game.

Saints 20  Panthers 17:  The Saints’ defense won this game; they harassed and confused rookie QB Bryce Young all night long.  Then again, Young’s pass catchers did not do him many favors; he did not have a ton of easy open throws to WRs who had separation on their routes.  The Saints, Falcons and Bucs are all 2-0 in the NFC South as of today.

Steelers 26  Browns 22:  Here is another game won by the defense.  The Steelers got two defensive TDs in the game – – a Pick-Six that bounced off two players’ hands before being picked and returned and a Scoop-and-Score after a strip sack of Deshaun Watson.  The Steelers’ offense was anemic once again – – particularly in the first half.  Recall in Week 1, the Steelers opened with 5 straight “three-and-out” possessions.  Here is how they started last week’s game:

• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – INT
• 3 plays – – 7 yards – – PUNT
• 1 play – – minus-5 yards – – LOST FUMBLE
• 6 plays – – 35 yards – – PUNT

The Browns won the stat battle posting 408 yards on offense compared to only 255 for the Steelers.  However, 4 turnovers by the Browns negated that advantage.

The Steelers ran eight plays and lost seven yards during the final 15 minutes of the game while their defense saved the day by forcing and recovering a pair of fumbles, including the one that T.J. Watt returned for the game-winning score.

Deshaun Watson was called for 2 facemask penalties in the game.  I have to think that is the first time a QB has had two such penalties in one game.  In fact, I am trying to recall the last time I saw a QB get called for one facemask penalty…

Here is another oddball occurrence from this game:

• The Steelers never snapped the ball inside the Red Zone – – and they still won the game.  That does not happen often…

Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury to the same knee that he blew out while in college.  Chubb is an excellent RB who is fun to watch.  I am hoping he can come back from this injury as he did from the one he suffered while at Georgia.

In last night’s game …

Niners 30  Giants 12:  The Niners lead 17-6 at half – – but it wasn’t that close.  The Niners were 8 of 10 on 3^rd down conversions in the first half leading to a huge advantage in time of possession.  There was no miraculous comeback for the Giants this week; they were outmanned and dominated in the second half.  Here are a couple of stats to show how lopsided the game actually was:

• Niners Offense = 441 yards
• Giants Offense = 150 yards

And …

• Niners total plays = 78
• Giants total plays = 46

And …

• Niners yards per pass attempt = 7.7 yards
• Giants yards per pass attempt = 3.5 yards

 

This Week’s Games:

 

 

There are lots of mediocre games on the card for this week.  There aren’t any top shelf games that constitute “must see TV” and there are no games for which you should avert your eyes at all costs.  I am finding it difficult to generate any wagering excitement over this card. 

Chargers at Vikes “Pick ‘em” (54):  Here you have a pair of teams that went to the playoffs last year and who have lost both of their first two games in 2023.  The Vikes have a small advantage in that they have had 10 days off since their last game on Thursday night.  Neither team has a reliable defense; both teams have good offenses.  If I were going to play this game – – and I am not – – I would take the game to go OVER.  I will label this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week simply because both teams are winless.

Titans at Browns – 3 (40):  The Titans are 1-1 but have not been either impressive or depressing.  The Browns are 1-1 and have looked disappointing given the anticipation surrounding the team over the summer.  Deshaun Watson has not looked as if he was worth 3 first round picks; Ryan Tannehill has been known to show up small in big moments – such as in Week 1 when the Titans managed 5 field goals and zero TDs.  The loss of Nick Chubb is huge and puts even more pressure on Deshaun Watson.  No thank you …

Texans at Jags – 10 (44.5):  The spread for this game opened the week at 7.5 points and you can still find it at 9 points at one sportsbook this morning.  The Texans have played well against the Jags recently even if they have not played well against many other teams.  Nevertheless, I think the Texans are severely over-matched here.  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games and am more than happy to avoid this one.

Pats – 2.5 at Jets (36):  The Pats have won 14 consecutive games against the Jets; is that a motivating factor for either of these two teams?  Both defenses are better than average and both offenses are less than average.  First team to 20 points wins the game?

Saints at Packers – 1 (42.5):  The Saints are 2-0 to start the season; the Lions should be 2-0 because they lost an OT game last week that they should have won at home.  This should be a defensive game; so, maybe it is an interesting UNDER play?  Not interesting enough…

Broncos at Dolphins – 7 (48):  The Broncos lost the first two games of the season at home; this is a long trip to play an undefeated team that leads its division for now.  This is either a wake-up call for the Broncos or it is the start of a great unraveling.  It is an interesting game to watch simply for that reason.

Bills – 6 at Commanders (43):  The Commanders are 2-0 and have played well in both games.  The Bills stunk out the joint in Week 1 turning the ball over 4 times against the Jets and then the Bills looked unstoppable racking up 38 points against the Raiders.  The temptation here is to take the Commanders on the Money Line at +235.

Falcons at Lions – 3 (46).  The spread for this game opened at 6 points and has been eroding as the week wore on.  I have no strong feeling about the game other than to say that both teams are well coached.  If I thought about playing this game, I would take it to go OVER – – but I’ll pass.

Colts at Ravens – 9.5 (44):  Is Anthony Richardson cleared from the concussion protocol?  Has he had sufficient practice time this week to get ready for an aggressive – and competent – defense?  The Ravens have only given up 33 points in 2 games; that defense has been front and center in giving the Ravens the early lead in the AFC North.  Too many unknowns here…

Panthers at Seahawks – 7 (42.5):  Bryce Young and the Panthers’ offense have looked pedestrian so far this year – – and that’s being polite.  Now, they get to traverse 3 time zones to take on a team that can establish itself as a factor in the NFC playoff picture so long as it wins games it should win.  And this is a game the Seahawks should win.  But I don’t like that spread even a little bit.

Cowboys – 13 at Cards (43):  This line opened the week at 10.5 points and has risen all week even with news that Cowboys’ CB, Trevon Diggs tore his ACL and is out for the year.  I smell a blowout here; Josh Dobbs versus the Cowboys’ defense – – even minus Trevon Diggs – – looks to be a mismatch.  But I am not touching 13 points in the game…

Bears at Chiefs – 13 (48):  The spread opened the week at 11.5 points and has inched up to this level as of this morning.  Once again, I smell a blowout here, but I am not touching 13 points for the game.  The Chiefs’ offense so far this season has not looked nearly as efficient as it has in recent years, but this is a Bears’ defense that should have difficulty stopping the Chiefs from doing what they want to do.

(Sun Nite) Steelers at Raiders – 2.5 (43):  This spread opened as a “Pick ‘em game”.  Why the emphatic movement to the Raiders is a mystery to me.  The key to this game is the Raiders’ defense against what has seemed to be an anemic offense from the Steelers for the last year or so.  That Raiders’ defensive unit was a no-show last week.

(Mon Nite early) Eagles – 5 at Bucs (46):  Here we have two undefeated teams for 2023; in fact, here is the only game with that distinction this week.  Therefore, I call this the Game of the Week on that flimsy premise.  The Bucs are 2-0 and lots of folks are surprised to see that – – me included.  The Eagles are 2-0 surprising only a few folks; the Eagles’ “surprise” for 2023 has been their mediocrity.  Yes, they won two games; and yes, they looked unimpressive in both.

(Mon Nite late) Rams at Bengals – 3 (44):  The spread here opened the week at 7 points.  Clearly, the ability of Joe Burrow to play at all in the game – – let alone at something approaching his high level of play – – will not be known until sometime on Monday.  If he is scratched or if he is limping sometime in the first half, the Rams ought to win the game.  If not …

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Florida State – 1 over Clemson
• Ole Miss +7.5 against Alabama
• Auburn/Texas A&M OVER 51
• Colorado/Oregon OVER 70

And just for fun two Money Line Parlays:

• New Mexico @ +155 (against UMass)
• Arizona @ -400 (against Stanford)
• $100 wager to win $219.

And …

• Dolphins @ minus-275
• Seahawks @ minus-275
• Jags @ minus-385
• $100 wager to win $134.

Finally, I’ll close with these words from former Michigan State head coach, Duffy Daugherty:

“Football is not a contact sport; it is a collision sport.  Dancing is a contact sport.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There seems to be a lot of “action” these days regarding new stadiums – or major upgrades to existing stadiums – all over the country.  Things seem to be in motion in St. Petersburg for the Rays and in Nashville for the Titans and in Las Vegas for the A’s and in suburban Chicago for the Bears and in Buffalo for the Bills and potentially in Baltimore for the Orioles.  There has been ample media coverage for those activities/plans over the past couple of years, but there is another one that completely slipped my notice.  If this one got any public airing outside its local area, then I missed it completely.

It seems that there is now an agreement between the Milwaukee Brewers and various entities in Wisconsin to spend $700M to upgrade American Family Field in a deal that would keep the Brewers in Milwaukee through 2050.  Here is roughly how the funding breaks down:

• The State of Wisconsin – – which owns the stadium by the way – – will kick in $400M.
• Milwaukee City and Milwaukee County will pony up $200M.
• Brewers’ ownership will toss in $100M to round things out.

Assuming this deal marches ahead without intervening calamity, this should assure that no one in Wisconsin need worry about the Brewers pulling up stakes and moving to Beaglebreath, Nebraska any time soon.

And speaking of the Milwaukee Brewers, pitcher J.C. Mejia just flunked his second PED test and has been suspended for 162 games.  [Aside:  A third positive test for a PED would result in a lifetime ban from MLB.]  There are two interesting angles to the reports of this suspension:

1. This is the second time Mejia has tested positive for the same banned substance – – Stanozolol.  The last time was 16 months ago, and he was suspended for that failed test.  Not only did Mejia apparently not learn of the consequences of testing positive for PEDs, but he also seems not to have learned that Stanozolol is a substance that MLB can detect rather well.
2. Mejia has appeared in 9 games for the Brewers this year throwing eleven-and-a-third innings.  His ERA is 5.56 which by the way is a significant improvement over his career ERA of 8.32.  If those are the results achieved while using a performance enhancing drug, I think Mejia should ask for a rebate because it does not seem to have worked.

Sticking with baseball – – sort of – – I have been focused on the AL West division race for the last six weeks or so and have not paid my normal amount of attention to the bottom feeders of MLB this year.  So, to maintain my curmudgeon credentials, let me do so here.

In the American League, four teams have been eliminated from the playoffs for a while now.  The White Sox, Royals, Angels and A’s need not postpone any vacation plans they may have with their families in October.  One good measure of a team having a really bad season is whether they lose 100 games or more.  In the AL, the Royals and the A’s have already done that and the A’s need to go 7-3 in their final 10 games to avoid losing 110 games in 2023.

In the National League, three teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.  The Nats, Cardinals and Rockies are out; the other 12 teams are mathematically alive for a playoff berth.  No team in the NL has already lost 100 games; in fact, the only team in the league that could possibly lose 100 games is the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies have lost 96 games as of this morning and have 10 games left to go.  The odds say they will cross over into “triple-digit territory” for losses in 2023.

Moving on … Boston College announced this week that it has suspended its men’s and women’s swimming and diving teams “indefinitely” because school administrators determined that hazing had occurred within those teams.  Boston College has codified examples of unacceptable hazing in its student handbook; here are things that the school specifically considers improper hazing:

“… personal servitude; sleep deprivation and restrictions on personal hygiene; yelling, swearing, and insulting new members/rookies; being forced to wear embarrassing or humiliating attire in public; consumption of vile substances or smearing of such on one’s skin; brandings; physical beatings; binge drinking and drinking games; sexual simulation and sexual assault.”

[Aside:  It would seem that forcing a new team member to get a tattoo of human genitalia on their forehead is not covered by this panoply of improper behaviors.  But I would not suggest that any entity on the BC campus try that out.]

Once again, I am forced to concede that I do not understand why hazing continues to exist in various organizations/teams because I do not understand what benefit derives from the hazing process.  Maybe an investigation into these sorts of questions/issues could be the basis for an article in a magazine like The Atlantic?

Finally, I’ll close today with these words from the English theater critic, James Agate:

“The English instinctively admire any man who has no talent and is modest about it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………