The Sports Curmudgeon

“Anonymous” once said:

“Work begins on Monday.  Life begins on Friday.”

I like to think that unidentified cultural observer attributes some of the beginning of life on Friday to our Football Fridays.  But then I come back to Earth and realize that these are – – at best – – an acquired taste.  Enough prologue, let me get to a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

College:  1-1-0  =>  Season:  6-6-0

NFL:  2-0-0   =>   Season:  9-3-0

Parlay:  1-0  => Profit = $106     Season: 6-3   =>  Profit: = $613

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            Congratulations to the Linfield College Wildcats; last week they beat George Fox University 41-13 giving them a record of 5-0 for the season.  As a Division 3 school, Linfield’s regular season schedule is only 9 games long and that means that Linfield will once again have a winning record in football – – as it has in every season since 1956.

People who analyze sports value “continuity” and/or “stability”.  The history of head football coaches at Linfield over the course of its streak of winning seasons only has 5 entries:

1. Paul Durham – – 1948 – 1967
2. Ad Rutschman – – 1968 – 1991  (Yes, he is Adley Rutschman’s grandfather.)
3. Ed Langsdorf – – 1992 – 1995
4. Jay Locey – – 1996 – 2005
5. Joseph Smith – – 2006 – present.

This week, Linfield travels to Tacoma, WA to take on the Lumberjacks of the University of Puget Sound who will arrive at the kickoff with a 2-3 record for the year.  Go Wildcats!

New Mexico State football has not had nearly the success rate in terms of wining seasons as Linfield.  Consider these data for the Aggies since the 2000 season:

• Three winning seasons – – in 2002, 2017 and 2022
• Fifteen seasons with 3 or fewer wins

Jerry Kill took over the program in 2022 and immediately produced one of those rare winning seasons – – and a bowl game victory.  With a win over UTEP earlier this week, the Aggies are 5-3 and have another bowl bid clearly in sight.  If the Aggies have a winning record in 2023 – – making it two years in a row with a winning record – – that will be the first time that has happened in Las Cruces since 1968.

This is the second “turnaround” situation for Jerry Kill; before this he did something similar to Minnesota’s football fortunes.  Kill had to leave the Minnesota job for health reasons after suffering some seizures during his time there.  It is good to see him back on the sidelines in good health; the guy can coach football.

Some teams had bad fortune last week.  Georgia lost TE Brock Bowers for at least a month.  Bowers is an outstanding football player; I have said that I think Marvin Harrison, Jr. is the best WR and maybe the best college football player in the country at this time; Brock Bowers is not that far behind Messr. Harrison, Jr.  Bowers suffered an ankle injury against Vandy and needed a surgical intervention.  If Georgia makes the CFP and continues to chase a “three-peat” as National Champions, maybe Bowers will be back to his normal level of excellence for those CFP games.

Miami did not necessarily have bad fortune last week, but things did not come out well for the Hurricanes.  The team really needed a win after the shocking/embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago.  UNC did not cooperate beating the Hurricanes by 10 points in a game that was not nearly that close.  Miami was supposed to be a tough out this year; as of today, Miami is one of 4 ACC teams without a conference win; the other three are Syracuse, Virginia and Wake Forest.

The fortunes for the Air Force team are almost the direct opposite from Miami.  Air Force has quietly amassed a record of 6-0 to start the season and should be favored over the rest of its Mountain West opponents.  Prior to the season, Air Force was slotted as a mid-pack team in the MWC; now maybe Air Force should enter the discussion as the Group of 5 conference winners that get consideration for a New Year’s Day bowl slot.

Some comments on games from last weekend:

Stanford 46  Colorado 43 (2OT):  A major upset here; Colorado was minus-700 on the Money Line for this game.  The Buffaloes had things in hand, leading at halftime by 29 points.  The teams combined for 1056 yards of offense in the game.  Stanford WR, Elic Ayomanor caught 13 passes for 295 yards and 3 TDs in the game.  Colorado was penalized 17 times in the game; some of the blame for that has to be assessed on the coaching staff.  After scoring 4 TDs on their first 4 possessions in the first half, here are the Colorado possessions in the second half:

• 9 plays – – 18 yards – – DOWNS
• 5 plays – – 15 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 9 yards – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 8 yards – – DOWNS
• 4 plays – – 75 yards – – TOUCHDOWN
• 6 plays – – 29 yards – – PUNT

During the week leading up to the game, Coach Sanders said that he hated late starting games.  This one did not start until 8:00 PM and Sanders made no bones about the fact that it was later than he wanted his team to be playing.  He never said it but maybe – – just maybe – – he worries that when the game is still in progress and the time is later than 11:00 PM, it is no longer “Prime Time” and he takes that personally.  Just a thought…

Washington 36  Oregon 33:  Both teams live on strong QB play.  Both Michael Penix and Bo Nix will be drafted into the NFL.  The teams combined for 931 yards of offense in the game with Oregon outgaining Washington by 101 yards.  Penix threw a TD pass in the final two minutes to give Washington the lead.  Oregon got the ball and tried a 43-yard field goal with time expiring and it missed.  This was a fun football game for fans.

Notre Dame 48  USC 20:  The Trojans’ defense held Notre Dame to 251  yards of total offense in the game; that stat does not normally fit with allowing the opponent to score 48 points.  The Irish intercepted Caleb Williams 3 times in the game; the Notre Dame defense had a Scoop-and-Score in the game, and the special teams scored a TD on a 99-yard kickoff return.  The Irish defense also recorded 11 tackles for a loss in the game.  The USC defense has been the subject of criticism so far this year; well, after watching this game, let me say that the Trojans’ OL is not all that special either.

Oregon St. 36  UCLA 24:  Oregon St. is 6-1 this year; their only loss was by 3 points to Washington St. four weeks ago.  It may be tough for Oregon St to win 10 games this year, but 9 wins is within reach.  UCLA narrowly won the stat-sheet contest here, but a Pick-Six and two other INTs by the Beavers’ defense led to this outcome.

In Big-12 games:

Houston 41  West Virginia 39:  This game is not particularly important but it is of note here because the two teams combined to score 42 points in the 4^th quarter of the game.  The Total Line for the game was 49 points; at the end of the 3^rd quarter, the teams had combined for 38 points; people who played UNDER still thought they might cash their tickets.  Then came the 4^th quarter deluge …

K-State 38  Texas Tech 21:  K-State only led by 3 points at halftime but they pulled away in the second half for a comfortable win.  The stat sheet was very close with a slight tilt in favor of Texas Tech, but the State defense forced 3 turnovers in the game that were pivotal.  Freshman QB, Avery Johnson played the entire second half for K-State and had himself quite a day:

• PASSING:  8 of 9 for 77 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs
• RUSHING:  12 carries for 95 yards and 5 TDs

In ACC action:

Pitt 38  Louisville 21:  This shaped up to be a letdown game for the Cards after beating Notre Dame two weeks ago; and that is what materialized.    Whatever; this was Louisville’s first loss of the season.  The Cards outgained the Panthers by 128 yards in the game and they had 27 first downs to only 13 for Pitt.  But they also turned the ball over 3 times…

Florida St. 41  Syracuse 3:  The Seminoles continue to make their case as a CFP participant this year.  This was a dominant win; consider these stats:

• Syracuse TOTAL offense = 261 yards
• Florida St. PASSING offense = 344 yards.

Duke 24  NC St. 3:  NC State took the lead with a 57-yard field goal in the opening minutes of this game; then Duke pitched a shutout.  The stat sheet was dead even with State outgaining Duke by 4 yards for the day.  State was penalized 11 times in the game for 87 yards killing off several drives that had looked promising.  Duke is 5-1 for the season with Florida St., Louisville and UNC still to come in 2023.

UNC 41  Miami 31:  The Tar Heels remain unbeaten for the season; that was Miami’s second loss for the season.  There was not a lot of defense in this game; the teams combined for 990 yards of offense.  UNC WR, Tez Walker was released from NCAA transfer prison and played his first game for UNC.  Here were his results:

• RECEIVING:  6 catches for 132 yards and 3 TDs
• RUSHING:  2 carries for 20 yards and 0 TDs

Moving into SEC territory …

LSU 48  Auburn 18:  This was complete domination by LSU; the Tigers gained 563 yards on offense averaging 8.5 yards per offensive play.  In the SEC West standings, Alabama is still unbeaten in conference games; LSU has 1 loss and Ole Miss has 1 loss.  Auburn is now 0-3 in conference play; so, they are effectively eliminated from the SEC Championship Game.

Missouri 38  Kentucky 21:  Missouri has quietly posted a 6-1 record for the season; their only loss was to LSU three weeks ago.  Missouri only outgained Kentucky by 33 yards for the game but they won the turnover battle by 2 turnovers and Kentucky was penalized 14 times for 122 yards.  Those factors led to this final outcome.

Tennessee 20  Texas A&M 13:  Tennessee throttled the Aggies’ offense in the game allowing only 277 yards on offense.  The Aggies got a TD on their first possession but did not do much after that.  The Aggies led 10-7 at halftime but the Tennessee defense forced these outcomes on A&M’s possessions in the second half:

• PUNT
• PUNT
• PUNT
• FIELD GOAL
• MISSED FIELD GOAL
• INT
• INT

Jimbo Fisher’s buyout number is more than $70M according to reports.  That probably keeps him safe from termination but any aspirations that Aggies’ fans had about the program becoming part of the college football elite have been thoroughly dashed.

Alabama 24  Arkansas 21:  Alabama was a 19-point favorite in the game and dominated the stat sheet if not the scoreboard outgaining Arkansas 414 yards to 250 yards.  Alabama leads the SEC West with an unblemished conference record but those wins have not been the dominant victories that ‘Bama fans have become accustomed to over the past several seasons.  In this game, Alabama went “three-and-out” three consecutive possessions in the late second half but held on to win.

And in the Big-10 …

Rutgers 27  Michigan St. 24:  Sparty led 24-6 as the fourth quarter began.  Michigan St. had the ball twice in the 4^th quarter and went “three-and-out” both times using only 2:48 on the clock.  Rutgers recovered a fumble in the State end zone for a TD and then scored twice on two consecutive possessions in the 4^th quarter to complete the comeback.  For the record, Rutgers will be bowl eligible with one more win …   [Aside:  Should I put Michigan State on the SHOE Tournament watch list …?}

Illinois 27  Maryland 24:  This is the second loss of the year for Maryland but the only very good team they played before this week was Ohio State and the Terps lost that game.  Illinois is not a powerhouse; so, what should Md fans make of the situation?  Well, the good news is that Maryland still has Northwestern, Nebraska and Rutgers on the schedule.  The bad news is that they also have Penn State and Michigan on the schedule.

Iowa 15  Wisconsin 6:  These are the two best teams in the Big-10 West this year.  That is a scary thought.  Iowa had 237 yards on offense and that meager number is inflated by one play where RB, Leshon Williams took a handoff and ran 82 yards for a TD.  Other than that scamper, Iowa ran 61 plays and gained 155 yards.  Iowa’s net passing offense for the game was 37 yards.  And Iowa won the game…

• [Aside:  Checking to see Iowa’s standing with regard to the 25 points per game it needs for its Offensive Coordinator to keep his job, the Hawkeyes have scored 146 points in 7 games which translates to 20.9 points per game.]

In miscellaneous games …

UTEP 27  FIU 14:  This is the second win of the season for UTEP and might allow them to escape the SHOE Tournament this year…

James Madison 41  Georgia Southern 13:  JMU only outgained Ga Southern by 16 yards in the game but JMU produced 3 turnovers in the game that were pivotal; three JMU touchdown drives were shorter than 40 yards.  I said last week that these are probably the two best teams in the Sun Belt Conference.  This result puts JMU in the catbird seat for the conference championship.

North Texas 45  Temple 14:  North Texas had been giving up the most points per game in the country going into this contest – – just under 40 points per game.  The shock here is that the Mean Green defense pitched a shutout in the second half.  This makes 4 games in a row where Temple has given up 40+ points to an opponent.

Penn St. 63  UMass 0:  Shameful scheduling …

Checking in on my “watch list” for the imaginary SHOE Tournament here are a Baker’s Dozen teams to watch:

• Akron, Ball St., Indiana, Kent St., Michigan St., Nevada, Temple, UConn, UMass, UNC-Charlotte, Vandy, Virginia and W. Michigan.

And just to keep up with teams in the running for the Brothel Defense Award for 2023:

• UMass gives up 42.4 points per game  [UMass won this “award” in 2021]
• Nevada gives up 39.5 points per game
• So. Mississippi gives up 38.1 points per game.

 

College Games of Interest This Week:

 

Penn St. at Ohio St. – 4.5 (45.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  The winner will take a giant step forward in terms of CFP inclusion.  Penn St. is second in the nation in scoring defense; the Nittany Lions allow only 8 points per game.  Ohio St. is third in the nation in scoring defense; the Buckeyes allow only 9.7 points per game.  Neither team runs the ball all that well.  Penn St had best figure out how to double-cover Marvin Harrison Jr. on every snap.  I am so tempted to take the UNDER in this game…

• [Aside:  No peeking now; these two teams rank second and third in the nation in scoring defense; so, what team is 4^th in the nation in scoring defense this week allowing only 9.8 points per game?  Answer is below …]

Clemson – 3 at Miami (49):  Both teams have two conference losses so far in 2023.  The only teams with 3 conference losses in the ACC at this point of the season are Wake Forest and Syracuse.  Neither Clemson nor Miami wants to join that list …

BC at Georgia Tech – 5 (58):  Both teams are 3-3 so far in 2023.  The winner keeps bowl hopes alive …

USF – 1.5 at UConn (54.5):  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Michigan – 24 at Michigan St. (48):  State blew a big lead to Rutgers last week in a come from ahead loss (see above).  They will not get a big lead this week, so they need not worry about blowing one again.

Duke at Florida St. – 13.5 (49):  The Total Line opened the week at 54 points; it did not stay there long.  The Seminoles are 6-0 for the season and 4-0 in conference games.  Duke is 5-1 for the season and 2-0 in conference games.

• [Answer to question above:  Duke is currently fourth in the nation in scoring defense allowing only 9.8 points per game.]

Rutgers – 5 at Indiana (40):  It has been two years since Indiana won a Big-10 game …  Rutgers is 5-2 so far this year; if they win this they will be bowl eligible before Halloween arrives.

UNC-Charlotte at E. Carolina – 7 (40):  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Air Force – 10.5 at Navy (34.5):  Undefeated Air Force has the Commander in Chief trophy from last year and wants to retain possession.  Air Force currently leads the nation in rushing offense averaging 334.17 yards per game.  Navy is no slouch running the ball; the Middies are fifth in the nation in rushing offense at 235.67 yards per game.

Minnesota at Iowa – 4 (31.5):  I do not ever recall seeing a college game with a Total Line this low since the days of Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Murray Warmath.

And speaking of Murray Warmath, here is one of his coaching observations:

“If lessons are learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education.”

UCLA – 17 at Stanford (53.5):  The oddsmakers seem not to be very impressed by Stanford’s huge comeback win over Colorado last week …

Arizona St. at Washington – 27.5 (60):  This might be a letdown game for the Huskies after an emotional win over Oregon last week (see above).  That spread is just a beep under 4 full TDs; this is a scary betting proposition.

Washington St. at Oregon – 20 (63):  Oregon is in the same boat as Washington coming off a game where they spent a lot of emotional energy – – and now the oddsmakers are asking them to win by almost 3 full TDs.  Washington St. seems to have forgotten how to score.  After posting 183 points in their first 4 games (Do the math.), the Cougars have only scored 23 points in their last 2 games.  Oregon’s defense is solid, and the Washington St. defense is OK.  I don’t see where that 64^th point is coming from; so, I like the game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Utah at USC – 7.5 (54):  The Total Line opened the week at 61 points and has dropped steadily to this level; I will not be surprised if it goes even lower.  When Utah wins, it is with its defense.  When USC loses, it is with its defense.  I think Notre Dame exposed the USC OL to the point that Utah can figure out how to exploit that.  I don’t think Utah can win this game outright, but I do think they will keep it very close; give me Utah plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

TCU at K-State – 6 (59):  TCU has two conference losses already; a third loss will effectively remove it from consideration for the Big-12 Championship Game.  K-State has one conference loss as do 4 other Big-12 teams who are in pursuit of Oklahoma which is undefeated in 2023.

Tennessee at Alabama – 8 (48):  The Vols have a conference loss already but if they win out – – meaning a win here and then a win over Georgia on November 18^th – they will be in the SEC Championship Game.  A loss here would put a severe crimp in those plans.  Meanwhile Alabama has a one-game lead in the SEC West over LSU and Ole Miss; Nick Saban would not be happy to relinquish that.  Last year, Tennessee beat Alabama in Knoxville in a shoot-out, 52-49.  Is this a “revenge game”?  Here is an angle to consider:

• Tennessee has only played one road game so far this year.  They were a road favorite in that game at Florida and lost 29-16.
• By the way, Florida is a mediocre team and ‘Bama is not.

South Carolina at Missouri – 6.5 (60):  Missouri has only lost once this year – – a 10-point loss to LSU.  S. Carolina is not a bad team, but they are not a very good team either.  I like Missouri at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Let me just throw this out there for consideration.  Regarding the situation with the 2023 Denver Broncos, is it possible that two things are both true at the same time:

1. The Seattle Seahawks went to two Super Bowl Games and won one of them with Russell Wilson as their QB but not because Russell Wilson was their QB.    AND …
2. QB, Drew Brees, was the main reason the Saints were so good under Sean Payton and perhaps Sean Payton is overrated as a coach.

I bring this up because I think too many people have taken sides in this matter.  When that happens both sides place the blame on “the other side”.  I have purposely made the two statements above polarizing and negative because I want to suggest here that the Broncos’ problems in 2023 just may be “the fault” of lots of folks and not a single individual.

Rather than assess blame here, I have tried to figure out how the Broncos can make this better – – and I do not see a clear path to making that happen in the near term.  Let me outline my thinking:

• Given Wilson’s performance last year and this year, it is difficult for me to envision that he will reinvent himself and become a Pro Bowl QB once again in 2024.  That is not an impossible situation, but I think it is highly unlikely; I believe that Wilson’s career arc is on a downward trajectory.
• If my belief is correct, then the Broncos will need to “move on” from Russell Wilson as their QB and find a “new guy”.  That “new guy” would probably have to come via the Draft for two reasons:

1. 1. 1. The Broncos do not have a ton of Draft capital to offer to another team to acquire a franchise QB in a trade.
      2. Even if they could pry such a QB away from his current team, the Broncos would be in Salary Cap Hell paying an established franchise QB from somewhere else PLUS taking the cap hit from releasing Wilson.

I am NOT an “NFL Salary Capologist”, but if I understand the published terms of Russell Wilson’s deal with the Broncos, he will cost them a ton of cap room as “dead money” if/when he is released.  Let me do a reset:

• When the Broncos acquired Wilson in a trade, they also signed him to a massive contract extension that could be worth up to $245M if all the options and incentives were to come to pass.  The extension averages out to $49M per year.
• The word “extension” is important here.  Wilson was already under contract; this new deal would kick in after the existing contract would have expired.  Russell Wilson’s contract with the extension now runs through the end of the 2028 NFL season.
• The extension had $125M fully guaranteed and another $40M worth of “guarantees” once certain other things happened.  This is where I get in over my head in the contract analysis; but using reported figures, Wilson’s cap number for 2024 will be $35.5M because his fully guaranteed money has been prorated across the life of the contract.
• However, if he is released, all of that proration collapses into a current year and if my calculations are correct, that means he will count as a “dead money” charge to the Broncos’ cap in 2024 to the tune of $35.5M and then in 2025 when all the guarantees accelerate into the accounting, he will cost the Broncos about $50M in “dead money”.  [Aside: “Dead money” is a charge against the salary cap of a team attributed to a player no longer on the team.  It is an accounting measure.]

Since I am not a “Capologist”, my numbers may be incorrect – – but Wilson’s burden on the Broncos’ cap over the next couple of years should he be released is not going to be “three easy payments of $39.95”.  So, carrying Wilson on the books for cap purposes plus paying an existing free agent QB and incurring that cap number would seem to be impossible without gutting the rest of the Broncos’ roster.

For those folks who believe that “Wilson is the problem” and “Payton will fix things once Wilson is gone”, those conclusions may be correct.  However, giving Payton the resources to “fix things” may take a while.  I think the Broncos’ are in for a couple of years of rough sledding …

Now, let me throw out one more thing for consideration:

• What’s up with Josh Jacobs?

He has been in the NFL since 2019.  In the first 4 years in the league, he averaged 1185 yards rushing per season; he went to the Pro Bowl twice and was an All-Pro once.  Last season, Jacobs led the NFL in rushing (1653 yards or 97.2 yards per game); he averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

This year – – after 6 games – – here are Jacobs’ comparison stats:

• 312 yards total – 52.0 yards per game
• 2.9 yards per carry.

The Raiders’ OL is not a good unit, but the Raiders’ OL last season was not a good unit either.  This decline in production is strange …

Just an update here on a potential record breaking stat:

• Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell has been sacked 34 times in 6 games.  That projects to 99 sacks over the course of the 2023 season.
• The NFL record is 76 sacks in a season.

I have said this before; I want to say it again.  The Detroit Lions are a very good football team.  The last time the Lions were NFL Champions was back in 1957 which is not only prior to the existence of the Super Bowl, it predates the existence of the American Football League.  The Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 kicking off the great “Space Race”.

The Lions provided an interesting twist to the 1957 season.  As the team was in Training Camp and playing through the six-game exhibition schedule, Buddy Parker was their coach.  Parker was a two-time NFL Champion coach with the Lions in the 1950s; there seemed to be little drama associated with the Lions.

Then, at a luncheon held to cheer the team on in the upcoming season, Parker told everyone in attendance that there was an organizational problem he could not fix, and he quit on the spot.  Notwithstanding that surprise, the Lions then went on to win an NFL title.

The Lions have been a mess for most of the time since 1957.  When Dan Jenkins wrote one of his novels concocting a scenario where an expansion team made it to the Super Bowl, Jenkins doubled down on the insanity of that happenstance and made it so the Lions were the opponent of – – and the loser to – – the expansion team.  I don’t know if the Lions are destined for the Super Bowl in February 2024, but this is a very good Detroit Lions team.  They should not be underestimated because of the futility of previous versions of the team.

Let me move on to comments on last week’s games:

Ravens 24 Titans 16:  I missed the first half of this game but caught the second half.  What a slog!  If you are a student of placekicking, this was the game for you.  The Ravens kicked 6 field goals and the Titans kicked 3 field goals plus a PAT.  If you like punting, this game was also entertaining as the two teams combined to punt the ball 8 times.  This game put the “foot” back in “football”.

Dolphins 42  Panthers 21:  At the end of the first quarter, the Panthers led 14-0.  Then the Dolphins scored 35 unanswered points.  Ho-hum …  Tua Tagovailoa had a big day producing this stat line:

• 21 of 31 for 262 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs

It is easy to point fingers at Panthers’ QB, Bryce Young as the overall #1 pick who is not leading the team to glory in 2023.  However, before you get too deep in that set of beliefs, consider this other Panthers’ stat for the season:

• Panthers; opponents are 9-for-9 in Red Zone possessions in the last two games.

Vikes 19  Bears 13:  The Bears outgained the Vikes by 55 yards and the Bears had the ball for more than 35 minutes in the game – – and they lost.  The margin of victory here was provided by a Vikings’ Scoop-and-Score in the third quarter.  Justin Fields left the game in the third quarter with an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand and did not return to action; he was replaced by Tyson Bagent.  If you do not recognize that name, join the chorus; Bagent spent his college career at Shepherd University – – a Division 2 school.

Jags 37  Colts 20:  The Colts dominated the stat sheet but not the scoreboard:

• Colts’ offense = 354 yards
• Jags’ offense = 233 yards

The difference in the game was Gardner Minshew turning the ball over 4 times (3 INTs and a lost fumble).  Jonathan Taylor was not really a factor in the game; he ran eight times for 19 yards, a slightly increased workload from his season debut a week earlier. He also caught five passes for 46 yards.

Texans 20  Saints 13:  The Saints outgained the Texans in the game by 133 yards and the Saints had the ball in the Red Zone twice in the final six minutes of the game trailing by 7 points.  Those two incursions produced nada – – a missed field goal and then an INT that virtually ended the game.

Bengals 17  Seahawks 13:  The Seahawks got a TD on their first possession and it looked as if they were going to dominate the game.  The Seahawks moved the ball well but did not produce points with the ball movement:

• Seahawks’ total offense = 381 yards
• Bengals’ total offense – 214 yards.

The Seahawks had the ball inside the Bengals 10-yardline twice in the final three minutes of the game and turned the ball over on downs both times.  The Bengals get a week off now to prepare for the Niners next week.

Browns 19  Niners 17:  Not only did Brock Purdy look mortal in this game, there were a half-dozen plays where he looked downright mediocre.  Here is his stat line for the game:

• 12 of 27 for 125 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Browns’ QB – – PJ Walker – – did not shine either throwing two very bad INTs in the game.  This was a showcase for both defenses.  People knew that Niners’ defense was really good; now they should know the Browns’ defense is really good too.

Raiders 21  Pats 17:  No, the Raiders did not score 3 TDs last week, those 21 points came on 1 TD with a PAT, 3 field goals and a safety.  You can never jump to conclusions with the Raiders.  The Patriots scored with about 3 minutes to play in the game bringing them to within 2 points of the Raiders.  Then the Pats’ defense forced a punt and the possibility of a drive for a winning field goal was under serious consideration.  That is when Maxx Crosby and company sealed the game by tackling Mac Jones in the end zone for a safety.

Commanders 24  Falcons 16:  Check this out:

• Falcons’ offense = 402 yards
• Commanders’ offense = 193 yards.

And …

• Falcons time of possession = 36:23
• Commanders’ time of possession = 23:37

And …

• Falcons’ first downs = 25
• Commanders’ first downs = 13

Now go back and look at the final score again.  The Commanders intercepted Desmond Ridder 3 times in the second half to seal the deal.

Rams 26  Cards 9:  The Rams ran Kyren Williams 20 times for 158 yards and 1 TD in this game.  The Cards led 9-5 at the half but were squashed in the second half as the Rams fed  Williams over and over.

Lions 20  Bucs 6:  Let me remind you that the Lions are really good; on a day when their offense was inefficient, the Lions’ defense just took control of the game.  Here is what I mean by an “inefficient offense”:

• Lions’ total offense = 380 yards
• Lions’ time of possession = 36:30
• Lions’ third-down conversions = 9 of 16
• Lions’ total points in the game = 20 points.

Here is what I mean by a “throttling defense”.  The Bucs were only 2 of 12 on third down conversions in the game.

Jets 20  Eagles 14:  The Jets were simply the better team on the field; they shut the Eagles out for the entire second half.  The Eagles led 14-3 with 5 minutes left in the first half.  After that, here are the Eagles possessions:

• 3 plays – – 32 yards – – LOST FUMBLE
• 6 plays – – 27 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 4 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 33 yards – – INT
• 9 plays – – 63 yards – – MISSED FIELD GOAL
• 8 plays – – 26 yards – – INT
• 4 plays – – 2 yards – – DOWNS

The Eagles turned the ball over 4 times in the game and the Jets did not turn it over at all.

Bills 14  Giants 9:  The Bills scored all of their points in the 4^th quarter to come from behind to win this game.  The Giants had the ball on the Bills’ 1-yardline as time expired in the first half – – and got no points; the Giants had the ball on the Bills’ 1-yardline in an untimed down after the clock had run down to 0:00 – – and got no points.  The football gods did not want the Giants to win this game.  Josh Allen connected with Stefon Diggs 10 times for 100 yards and the Bills’ defense had nine tackles for loss in the game.  This is the third time this season that the Giants have failed to score a TD in a game.

 

Games This Week:

 

This week is a truncated NFL schedule because six teams are on their BYE Week:

1. Bengals:  At 3-3, the Bengals are in last place in the AFC North for now and can use this week to prepare for the Niners next week.
2. Cowboys:  At 4-2, the Cowboys have looked like world-beaters in their four wins and have looked marginally competent in their two losses.  They can use this week to figure out who they are.
3. Jets:  At 3-3, the Jets are in the middle of the AFC wildcard race and are only two games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East – – plus their next three games look very winnable.
4. Panthers:  At 0-6, the Panthers are the only winless team in the league …
5. Texans:  At 3-3, the Texans are only one game behind the Jags in the AFC South race.  They are one of the biggest surprises of this NFL season.
6. Titans:  At 2-4, they are in last place in the AFC South and are winless on the road so far in 2023.

Falcons at Bucs – 2.5 (37):  The Total Line opened the week at 40 points and dropped quickly to this level.  Both teams lost last week; the Bucs lost to the Lions and the Falcons lost to the Commanders.  Here is an interesting stat I ran across:

• Falcons’ QB, Desmond Ridder, has never won a road game in his career.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are 3-2 on the year – – and both losses have come at home.  Something has got to give …

Raiders – 3 at Bears (37.5):  The spread opened at 1 point and rose to this level in mid-week; my guess is that was in response to news that Justin Fields’ thumb injury might force the Bears to start Tyson Bagent at QB.

• [Aside:  Imagine if Bagent starts and lights it up and wins the game.  There are already more than a few folks ready to cut the chord on Justin Fields.  Could be fun times …]

Meanwhile, the Raiders will need to start one of their backup QBs too; reports say Jimmy G is out for this week.  So, is it going to be Bryan Hoyer or Aiden O’Connell?  The biggest difference in this game is the Raiders’ defense is better than the Bears’ defense.

Browns – 2 at Colts (40.5):  The Browns’ defense won last week’s game against the Niners.  PJ Walker was the QB for the Browns and the stats show that as a win for him as a starting QB which is misleading at best.  Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew was awful last week against a good Jags’ defense.  This week, the Colts face an even better defense and Walker has another game under his belt.  I like the Browns to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Lions at Ravens – 3 (43):  This game would have been my Game of the Week had it not been for the Dolphins/Eagles game later on the card.  The Lions lead their division comfortably; the Ravens have a half-game lead in their division.  This is the second road game in a row for the Lions; the Ravens had to return home from a London game last week.  Jared Goff has produced this cumulative stat line for the Lions in 2023:

• 141 of 203 for 1618 yards with 11 TDs and 3 INTs.

This week, the Lions face the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL which only gives up 163.2 yards per game.

Bills – 9 at Pats (41):  The Pats’ defense is good, but they are not going to hold the Bills to 15 points or so.  The Pats’ offense is not good, and they are not going to score more than 17 points or so.  This looks like a lopsided contest to me.

Commanders – 2.5 at Giants (39):  This game came within a whisker of being the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Commanders – – under whatever nickname you have ever used for the franchise – – tend not to play well in the Meadowlands.  The Giants are a pure hot mess, and it is not clear who will start at QB for them.  It may not matter because the Commanders’ DL should dominate the Giants’ OL and give the incumbent Giants’ QB lots of trouble.  The same should be the case when the Commanders have the ball.  The team that makes the fewer mistakes should win this one.

Cards at Seahawks – 7.5 (44):  The Total Line was originally at 47 points.  The Cards have lost their last 3 games badly – – by 19 points, 14 points and 15 points.  The Seahawks lost last week with a listless performance against the Bengals (see above).  The Seahawks need this game for positioning in the standings; the Cards need this game just for pride.

Steelers at Rams – 3 (44):  It’s hard to figure either of these teams; the only constant would be that when the Steelers win, it is because of their defense and not because of their offense.  Matthew Stafford is enjoying the luxury of now having two top-shelf targets to throw to in Cooper Kupp (back from injury) and rookie sensation Puka Nacua.

Chargers at Chiefs – 5 (47.5):  The Total Line opened at 52 points and has slowly eroded to this level as the week wears on.  The Chiefs have had 10 days to prep for this game and they will face a Chargers’ pass defense that is allowing almost 290 yards per game on average.  Meanwhile, the Chargers come off a short week having played on Monday night last weekend.  I think the Total Line has moved in the wrong direction; I like the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Packers – 1 at Broncos (45):  Say “Hello” to the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Broncos make a tire fire look appealing.  The Packers had a BYE last week but were miserable in their last outing against the Raiders two weeks ago.  I will bet against the tire fire here; believe it or not, I will take the Packers on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Dolphins at Eagles – 2.5 (51):  This is clearly the Game of the Week.  The Dolphins average 37.2 points per game.  Even if you throw out that 70-point outburst earlier this year, the Dolphins average 30.6 points per game.  The Eagles’ defense is allowing only 20.6 points per game.  That is the matchup that will decide the winner of the game.  More specifically, the question is:

• Can the Eagles’ defense pressure the QB enough to throw the Dolphins passing game off rhythm?

The Dolphins average 316.8 yards per game through the air which is 53 yards per game more than the second-best passing offense this year.

(Mon Nite) Niners – 7 at Vikes (44):  The Total Line opened at 47 points.  The most explosive offensive players on the Niners are Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel; both of them left last week’s game against the Browns with injuries.  Not knowing their status means I will pass on playing this game even though I am no fan of the Vikes without Justin Jefferson on the field.

So let me recap the “Betting Bundle” for this week:

• Oregon/Washington St.  UNDER 63
• Utah +7.5 against USC
• Missouri – 6.5 over S. Carolina
• Browns – 2 over Colts
• Chargers/Chiefs  OVER 47.5
• Packers – 1 over Broncos.

And here are two Money Line Parlays for this weekend:

• Lions @ +135
• Chiefs @ minus- 235
• $100 wager to win $235

And ,,,

• Bills @ minus-360
• Seahawks 2 minus-350
• Chiefs @ minus 235
• $100 wager to win $134

Finally, I’ll close this out with an observation by former Georgia football coach, Wally Butts:

“In Alabama, an atheist is someone who does not believe in Bear Bryant.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Suzanne Somers died earlier this week.  She played the role of the “dumb blonde” on television; but in reality, she was sharp as a tack.  In addition to acting, she was an author and entrepreneur.  I wonder if – – ten years from now – – she will be most remembered for her role on the TV sit-com, Three’s Company or for her thigh master commercials.

Rest in peace, Suzanne Somers.

A couple of days ago, I got an email from the “reader in Houston”; naturally, I assumed that I had misstated a stat in a recent rant or possibly had ignored a historical comparison.  When I opened it however, it was a gentle reminder that I had not yet done my “annual MLB Spotrac Injury List Summary.”  So, here we go …

When MLB players sign their contracts, those deals are guaranteed in the event of injury; that means when a player goes on the Injured List (IL) he still gets paid as if he were out on the field day after day.  Over the course of a season lots of players show up in the IL for varying lengths of time and MLB owners continue to shell out despite the unavailability of the players.  Spotrac.com tracks players that go on and off the IL and by going over their list, you can find some interesting facts.  Start with the ”Big Picture”; in 2023:

• At some point in the season 678 different players were on IL.  That is an average of 22.3 players on IL per team.
• Those 678 players spent a total of 45,033 days on IL.  So, the average player on IL spent 66.4 days there.
• Of the 678 players to show up on IL, 141 players went on IL and came back only to be placed on IL a second time in 2023.
• Of the 678 players to show up on IL,17 players were on IL three different times.
• Of the 678 players to show up on IL, 1 player (Brandon Crawford) appeared on the list four different times.
• The total salary paid out to players on IL during the 2023 season was $965,686,146.  Therefore, the average player on IL earned $1.42M while on the IL.

The player who collected the most salary while on IL this year was Stephen Strasburg (Nats).  He was on the list for the entire season (186 days) and collected $34,999,992.

Nineteen players were paid $10M or more while they spent time on the IL this year.

The player who collected the least salary while on IL this year was Dallas Keuchel (Twins).  He was on the list for 1 day and collected $3,871.

• [Aside:  Three players are on Spotrac’s list for spending time on the IL but according to the database, they did not collect any salary while there.  I do not know why that is the case but that is the entry in the database.]

Twenty-three players were paid $40K or less while they spent time on the IL this year.

• [Aside:  Many people are concerned with income inequality in society these days; MLB salaries have a huge amount of income inequality as some data here show.]

One player, Max Stassi (Angels) was on the IL for 201 days which is longer than the MLB regular season, I suppose he was injured in the offseason and put on the list before the season started.

Forty-five players spent 186 days (the entire length of the MLB season) on the IL.  One player, Frankie Montas (Yankees) was on the IL for 185 days.  He was there on 3/30/2023 when the season began and came off the list on 9/30/23 – – the day before the season ended.

Looking at team stats relative to the IL:

• The Angels put 35 different players on IL at some point in the season – – most in MLB.
• The Astros put only 13 players on IL at some point in the season – – least in MLB.
• The Yankees paid the most money to players on the IL.  The Yankees had 28 players on IL at some point and paid those players $82,093,459.
• The Guardians paid the least money to players on the IL.  The Guardians had 15 players on IL at some point and paid those players $9,479,905.
• The Dodgers lost the most service time by players on the IL.  The Dodgers had 29 players on IL at some point and lost a total of 2,470 days of playing time – – most in MLB.
• The Guardians lost the least service time by players on the IL.  The Guardians had 15 players on IL at some point and lost a total of 703 days of playing time – – least in MLB.

So, if you enjoyed this plunge into MLB injury and financial data, thank the “reader in Houston”.  If you did not enjoy it, be thankful you can simply hit the delete button and move on with your life.  It’s all good …

Finally, I’ll close today with this definition provided by humorist, S. J. Perelman:

“A farm is an irregular patch of nettles bounded by short-term notes, containing a fool and his wife who didn’t know enough to stay in the city.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As the MLB playoffs progress, let me look ahead just a bit to take a quick look at some of the potential excitement in this year’s MLB free agency.  I need not mention that Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent and will be the most coveted free agent out there.  There will be ample sources of information and speculation about where Ohtani could or should sign – – so I will leave that topic to others.  I want to look at nine other free agents and where they might wind up.

1. Cody Belinger – – OF/1B:  His career has been a yo-yo.  He has been Rookie of the Year and an NL MVP.  He also stunk out the joint from 2020 to 2022 such that the Dodgers just let him go.  Last year with the Cubs he rediscovered his hitting stroke with a batting average of .307 and an OPS of .881.  I think the Cubs will work hard to re-sign him.
2. Jeimer Candelario — – INF:  His value is as a utility player who routinely plays first base of third base but could fill in at second base or shortstop.  The question here is how much a team will want to pay for an 8-year veteran whose career batting average is .243.
3. Josh Hader – – LHP:  As far as I am concerned, he is the best relief pitcher that I believe will be on the market this winter.  He is a 5-time All-Star and even though he is 30 years old, he only has 388.2 innings of work on his left arm.  I think the big-spending clubs will be in on the bidding here.
4. Rhys Hoskins – – 1B:  He missed all of 2023 with an ACL tear that required surgical repair.  The good news is that he has a career OPS of .864; the bad news – along with that knee injury – is that he will be 31 years old next season.
5. Clayton Kershaw – – LHP:  His workload has shrunk considerably.  He has not started 25 games in a season since 2019 and his innings pitched average out at 127 innings over the last 3 seasons.  He will be 36 years old but when he pitches, he often pitches well.  My guess is that he goes back to the Dodgers on yet another 1-year contract.
6. Aaron Nola – – RHP:  Is he the most coveted MLB veteran pitcher – – or is Blake Snell?
7. Blake Snell – – LHP:  Is he the most coveted MLB veteran pitcher – – or is Aaron Nola?
8. Justin Turner – – INF/DH:  He will be 39 years old next season; if he signs somewhere, look for it to be a 1-year deal maybe with a club option for a second season.  This may be the end of the line for Turner in MLB …
9. Yoshi Yamamoto – – RHP:  Yes, his accomplishments have been in the Japanese League but those accomplishments have been prodigious.  He has won the Tiple Crown in the Japanese League twice and has had the lowest ERA in the league 3 times.  He is only 25 years old, and I will be shocked if he signs with any team not recognized as one of MLB’s “big spenders”.

            Moving on …  For about the last year or so, there have been dozens of reports saying that Manchester United of the English Premier League might be for sale.  The team’s fans fondly wished for that to be the case; there has not been an abundance of bonding between Man U fans and the Glazer family since Malcom Glazer bought the team in 2005.  Malcom Glazer passed in 2014 but the relationship has not warmed even slightly between the fans and the next generation of Glazers.  So, there was hope among the fans that someone not named Glazer would soon be in charge of the club.

The latest reporting is not going to make every Man U fan happy.  According to a report last week, Sir Jim Ratcliffe is in line to buy a 25% stake in the team for a reported $1.6B.  From the fans’ perspective, that is not a controlling position which means the Glazers will still be in sight and in charge.  Reporters and analysts say that this is a first step in a process that will eventually have Sir Jim owning the entire club sometime down the road.  I have no idea if that is his thinking and/or if that is part of the Glazers’ thinking, but that seems to be the narrative out there today.

As of this morning, Man U is in 10^th place in the English Premier League; for now, they are not nearly in danger of relegation, but they are also 8 full points behind Tottenham and Arsenal who lead the EPL for the moment.  Man U fans might – – I said might – – look fondly upon the Glazers as club owners if the standings looked very different, but with Man U sitting in the middle of the table and not being a key figure in the league outcome, the fans’ displeasure is simply magnified.

Up to now, I have been peeking into the EPL newsfeed to follow two teams just because I find them interesting in 2024:

• Everton sits in 16^th place in the 20-team EPL.  This is interesting to me because it was in 1951 when Everton was last relegated to a league below the top level of English football.  This morning, Everton has 7 points in 8 games; the relegation level this morning is 4 points in 8 games.
• Luton Town sits in 17^th place in the 20-team EPL.  Luton Town had been relegated sequentially out of the multiple tiers of English professional football leagues; and then, over the past 10-15 years has clawed its way back to the top tier of English football.  Can they stay there?  Well, this morning they have 4 points in 8 games and would only escape relegation based on goal differential with Burnley who also have 4 points in 8 games.

            Given the potential sale of Man U, perhaps I will look at EPL news for three teams as this season progresses …

Finally, here is a brief observation from George Bernard Shaw:

“The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is a confluence of Friday the Thirteenth and Football Friday.  I will not try to look for or work in any angles about hexes, spells, jinxes and the like here because I am reminded of something my fifth-grade teacher – – Mr. Garrity – – said about the silliness of the superstitions surrounding Friday the 13^th:

“If something bad is going to happen, it can happen on Thursday the 12^th or on Saturday the 14^th too.”

With that out of the way, let me move on to a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College:  2-1-0  =>  Season:  5-5-0
• NFL:  3-0-0  =>  Season:  7-3-0
• Parlays:  2-1 => “Profit” = $193   Season:  5-3  =>  “Profit” = $507

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats extended their record for 2023 to 4-0 by handily beating Lewis and Clark 57-15.  As a Division 3 school, Linfield’s regular season schedule is only 9 games long, so the Wildcats only need one more win this year to extend their streak of winning season in football to 67 consecutive seasons.  This week is Homecoming for the Wildcats; they will host the Bruins of George Fox University.  Go Wildcats!

While things are looking up for Linfield and its fans this season, there are four college programs with high visibility that disappointed their fans last weekend.  I’ll start with Miami.

The Hurricanes won their first 4 games this year outscoring those 4 opponents by 125 points.  Last week, they played at home against Georgia Tech and the oddsmakers had Miami as a 21.5-point favorite in the game.  It was supposed to be a tune-up game leading Miami into the tough part of its schedule starting this week against UNC and then Clemson.  What happened was that through one of the biggest coaching blunders of the decade, Miami allowed Tech a final possession and then gave up a long Hail Mary TD pass to lose the game 23-20.  Note, even without the blunder and the defensive brain cramp, Miami would only have beaten an inferior opponent by 3 points.  Miami coach, Mario Cristobal has a reputation as a great recruiter and as a bad game coach.  Last week did not help that reputation.

Next up is Notre Dame.  The Irish also won their first 4 games in 2023.  Like the Hurricanes there was only one opponent in that early season that might be considered anything more than a scrimmage for the Irish, but the team was undefeated as it prepared to host Ohio State.  The Buckeyes won that game in South Bend but it was a close and a hard-fought game.  There was still a lot of positivity surrounding the program.  Then Notre Dame went on the road to play Duke and struggled to win that game by 7 points; and then, last week, the Irish went on the road again and got spanked by Louisville 33-20.  With two losses on their record, it is highly unlikely that Notre Dame will get any consideration for the CFP and will probably need to win out on the schedule to be in a New Year’s Day bowl game.

Let me move on to Texas.  The Longhorns won their first 5 games this year including a win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  The other opponents were not of that caliber, but Texas’ early season schedule did not include Amputees-R-Us either.  Last week, Texas played traditional rival Oklahoma; the Longhorns had the game in hand until the final 15 seconds when it gave up a TD pass that gave the Sooners the win.

Last on this list of four teams to disappoint last week is Texas A&M.  The Aggies were 4-1 entering last weekend’s game and the loss was to Miami back in Week 2; that loss could be dismissed by Aggie fans as a tough loss to a “top team” and it was a road game for the Aggies.  Last week, Alabama arrived in College Station looking less awesome than Alabama teams of recent vintage; this was a major home game for Texas A&M.  And the Aggies did what the Aggies do all too often; they lost the “big game”.  With two losses already on the books and with 3 games still to be played against ranked teams (as of this week), it looks as if this might be another mediocre season for Texas A&M fans.

Let me say something about the rankings of teams this week.  There are three teams from the Big-10 ranked in the Top 6:

• Michigan is ranked second
• Ohio State is ranked third
• Penn State is ranked sixth.

            My problem here is that of these three teams, only Ohio State has played a “real opponent” in 2023; recall that Ohio State beat Notre Dame by 3 points in South Bend.  The rest of the schedule for all the schools is embarrassing.

• Michigan:  Yes, they are demolishing inferior opposition; that is what good teams are supposed to do.  But the Wolverines 6-0 record does not impress.  If I had to identify a “signature win” for Michigan in 2023, it would probably be the 31-7 win over Rutgers four weeks ago.  Meh!
• Ohio State:  Give credit to the Buckeyes for scheduling Notre Dame out of conference.  Then ponder why the other two out of conference opponents on the dance card are Youngstown St. and Western Kentucky.  Other than Notre Dame, the Buckeyes’ toughest opponent was probably Maryland.  Meh!
• Penn State:  The Lions’ out of conference games this year were West Virginia (mediocre), Delaware (Division 1-AA) and UMass.  Seriously, Delaware and UMass in the same season?  Meh!

The only saving grace here is that these three schools will play one another between now and the end of the season; it is unlikely that all three will wind up in the Top-6 in December.

The college football season is about half over; by this point in the season, we should have a grasp on the cadre of “really good teams” and some indication as to the “really bad teams”.  By the end of the season, I will offer up my view of the eight worst teams in the country that I would like to see participate in an on-field tournament to determine the worst team in the country.  The idea is for teams to play one another, and the loser must continue to play until there is an ultimate loser.  I call that imaginary tournament the SHOE Tournament where SHOE stands for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

I am nowhere near ready to make any pronouncements about the teams that will be in the ultimate SHOE Tournament, but I do have my eyes on about a dozen teams that look pretty bad to me, Let me just give you a preview here:

• Akron, Ball St., Kent St., W. Michigan – – four teams from the MAC
• UMass, UTEP – – two perennial “contenders” for this tournament
• Arizona St., Nevada, Northwestern, Stanford, Temple UConn, UVa – – bad teams.

And just to keep you up to date regarding the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award given to the team that surrenders the most points per game over the season:

• North Texas gives up 39.8 points per game
• UMass gives up 39.4 points per game
• Nevada gives up 38.4 points per game.

Here are some observations about games from last weekend; I’ll start in the SEC:

LSU 49  Missouri 39:  The teams combined for 1044 yards on offense and 50 first downs.  Missouri turned the ball over twice; LSU had no turnovers.  A Pick-Six in the final minute of the game sealed the win for LSU and made the margin of victory seem larger than it was.

Alabama 26  Texas A&M 20:  Alabama was held to 23 net yards rushing in the game and won the game.  Alabama turned the ball over more than Texas A&M and won the game.  Alabama was penalized 14 times (for 99 yards) and won the game.  Makes you think the football gods were intervening here – – or maybe it’s just that Texas A&M always loses “big games” …

Georgia 51  Kentucky 13:  The Bulldogs finally put everything together here.  Georgia gained 608 yards on offense and limited Kentucky to only 183 yards of total offense.  The game was domination from start to finish; at halftime the score was 34-7.

Ole Miss 27  Arkansas 20:  Once again, Ole Miss trailed in the 4^th quarter and rallied to win the game.  In this case, it took two consecutive scoring drives – – a TD and a FG – – in the final minutes to pull out the win.  Arkansas turned the ball over twice in the game and that did not help their cause at all.

In ACC games last week:

Georgia Tech 23  Miami 20:  Miami outgained Georgia Tech 454-250 yards, had 23 first downs to the Yellow Jackets’ 12, and none of it mattered.  As discussed above, Tech won the game on a 44-yard Hail Mary completion with 2 seconds left in the game.  They only had possession because Miami chose not to take a knee on the previous possession that would have run the clock out.  Somehow, the Miami defenders let the Tech receiver get well behind them on the play that decided the game.

Louisville 33  Notre Dame 20:  That is the second loss of the year for the Irish; Louisville is still unbeaten at 6-0 for the season.  The Cardinals’ defense held Notre Dame to only 44 yards rushing in the game.  The Irish turned the ball over 5 times in the game – – 3 INTs and 2 lost fumbles.

Clemson 17  Wake Forest 12:  If you are a connoisseur of passing offense, do not bother to find the tape on this game.  The teams combined to produce only 268 yards of passing offense.  Clemson missed a field goal and lost two fumbles in the game – – and still came out with a win.

Florida St. 39  VaTech 17:  The Seminoles led 22-0 at the end of the first quarter and won the game on cruise control from that point.  Running back Trey Benson had a big day for Florida St. rushing for 200 yards and 2 TDs on only 11 carries.  He also caught 3 passes for 15 yards.

UNC 40  Syracuse 7:  The Tar Heels remain unbeaten so far in 2023.  This game was an unmitigated butt-kicking.

• UNC:  644 yards total offense, 32 first downs.
• Syracuse:  221 yards total offense, 11 first downs

And in the Big-10 …

Ohio St. 37  Maryland 17:  The score was tied at halftime, but Ohio St. pulled away in the second half.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. had a big day with 8 receptions for 163 yards and 1 TD.

Nebraska 20  Illinois 7:  The game was dead even on the stat sheet:

• Nebraska:  312 yards  17 first downs  5 of 15 third down conversions
• Illinois:  310 yards  16 first downs  4 of 15 third down conversions

A goal line stand by Nebraska and a kickoff recovery by Nebraska were turning points in the game.

Iowa 20  Purdue 14:  The Hawkeyes are 5-1 for the season despite scoring only 21.8 points per game for the season.  In this game, Iowa had only 12 first downs and ran only 55 plays – – as compared to 80 for Purdue.  Here are the results of the Purdue possessions in the second half; this should tell you that the Iowa defense is responsible for that gaudy record:

• 6 plays  18 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  18 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  0 yards  PUNT
• 8 plays  33 yards  DOWNS
• 6 plays  24 yards  INT
• 6 plays  74 yards  TD
• 4 plays  0 yards  DOWNS

And out west in the PAC-12 …

UCLA 25  Washington St. 17:  That is the first loss of the year for the Cougars and an important conference win for the Bruins.  The UCLA defense was dominant holding Washington St. to only 17 yards rushing and 216 yards of total offense.

Colorado 27  Arizona St. 24:  The stat sheet belonged to Arizona St. for the game, and it pointed to a weaknesses for Colorado that has plagued the Buffaloes all season long – – Colorado cannot run the ball; they gained 56 yards on the ground in this game.

• For the season, Colorado ranks 129^th in the country in rushing offense per game.
• The Buffaloes only run the ball for 78.7 yards per game and only average 2.46 yards per carry.

Nevertheless, this is Colorado’s 4^th win of the year, and they have a real shot at bowl eligibility for the year.

Oregon St. 52  Cal 40:  The teams combined for 946 yards of offense in the game.  There were only 3 punts in the game.  The Total Line for this game was 51 points; Oregon St. eclipsed that mark all by themselves.

USC 43 Arizona 41 (3OT):  Arizona dominated the stat sheet gaining 506 yards on offense as compared to 365 yards for USC.  This result keeps USC unbeaten for the year at 6-0 but it is not the game the Trojans will use very much in its season highlight film.  At one point in the first half, Arizona led 17-0.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

NC St. at Duke – 3 (45):  Duke is one of four teams in the ACC without a conference loss.

Texas A&M at Tennessee – 3 (55):  If the Vols “run the table” they can make it to the SEC Championship Game.

Syracuse at Florida St. – 18 (56):  The Seminoles rightfully have their eye on an invitation to the CFP.  Every game is a big game for them.

Missouri at Kentucky – 3 (51):  The game opened as a “pick ‘em game” but the line has moved toward Kentucky all week.  Both teams have one conference loss so far; the loser here is probably eliminated from any real chance to make the SEC Championship Game.

Florida at S. Carolina – 2.5 (53.5):  This line is a bit surprising, but Florida is winless on the road this year and S. Carolina is undefeated at home this year.  Nevertheless, I think Florida is the better team here – – albeit not nearly a great team; I’ll take the “better team” plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Michigan St. at Rutgers – 4 (39):  Have the wheels completely fallen off the wagon at Michigan State?

Louisville – 7.5 at Pitt (45):  The spread opened at 10 points and has fallen to this level.  The Cardinals need to avoid a letdown after a big win last week over Notre Dame; they enter this contest with a 6-0 record.  Meanwhile the Panthers are a less-than-laudable 1-4 for the season.

UMass at Penn St. – 41.5 (55):  Should be ugly …

Miami at UNC – 4 (57):  The Tar Heels are unbeaten (5-0) for the year; Miami will have to find a way to bounce back from its crushing loss to Georgia Tech last week (see above).

Georgia Southern at James Madison – 6 (59):  These are probably the two best teams in the Sun Belt Conference, and they are both in the East Division.  Big game in Harrisonburg VA…

Cal at Utah – 12 (44):  The Utes already have a conference loss; they cannot afford another one here.

Oregon at Washington – 3 (67):  This is the College Game of the Week.  Both teams are 5-0 coming into the game and both are 2-0 in conference games.  Washington is ranked 7^th in the country this week and Oregon is ranked 8^th.  Because the PAC-12 dissolved its division structure this year, it is possible that these two teams can meet again in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  I like both teams here; I am tempted to take Oregon with the points, but I shall resist.

UCLA at Oregon St. – 3.5 (54):  Both teams have one conference loss so far; a second loss would not be beneficial for either side.

Iowa at Wisconsin – 10 (34.5):  College football Total Lines rarely get anywhere near as low as this one.  I wonder if there is a prop bet for OVER/UNDER the number of punts in the game?

Arkansas at Alabama – 19.5 (46.5):  Alabama leads the SEC West and is undefeated in conference play.  The Razorbacks have already lost 3 conference games.

Temple at North Texas – 6 (70):  North Texas gives up more points per game than any other Division 1-A school so far this year (see above).  Temple has given up 40 points or more in each of its last 3 games.  This could be a “Tackling Optional” Game…

Kansas – 3 at Oklahoma St. (56):  Half the teams in the Big-12 have one conference loss; these are two such teams.  A second loss in conference will not be helpful at all.

K-State at Texas Tech – 2.5 (57):  Half the teams in the Big-12 have one conference loss; these are two such teams.  A second loss in conference will not be helpful at all.

USC at Notre Dame – 3 (61.5):  The Total Line opened at 69 points and plummeted to this level late in the week.  The fact that USC is the underdog here speaks to the porous defense the Trojans have fielded so far this year; they surrendered a total of 110 points in the last three games.  They rank 112^th in the country and surrender 421.3 yards per game.  Nevertheless, USC is undefeated at 6-0 when it arrives at the kickoff.  Call this a “Weather Channel Game” because its forecast for South Bend on Saturday night calls for high wind and heavy rain with temperatures in the low 40s.  If that forecast is remotely accurate, I like this game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I have not seen all the NFL teams play for a meaningful amount of time so far this year to categorize all of them.  Highlight reels are not sufficient but I have seen enough of the following teams to create 5 categories as the NFL starts the middle third of its schedule>

• Best Teams:  Niners, Dolphins
• Very Good Teams:  Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Lions
• Meh Teams:  Commanders, Saints, “Everyone in the AFC North”
• Not-So-Good Teams:  Chargers, Colts, Texans, Packers, Raiders
• Bad Teams:  Cards, Bears, Giants, Broncos, Pats

This categorization is my own and it is solely dependent on my eyeball test from watching these teams on TV.

My eyeballs are going to be assaulted by the NFL and the TV execs again this week because the schedule negotiators totally misread the tea leaves for 2023.  The Giants are going to be making yet another national/prime time appearance – – this time on Sunday Night Football.  There is no joy over that situation here in Curmudgeon Central.

Fans in Pittsburgh are happy to a degree because the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, but they are not at all happy with the team’s offensive performance under the tutelage of offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.  In last week’s victory, the Steelers’ offense produced 287 yards from scrimmage; it was a victory created by defense and special teams; Steelers’ fans certainly noticed that.

This is hardly a new phenomenon in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers have now gone 39 consecutive games without posting 400 yards or more of offense in the Matt Canada Era.  That stat is also not lost on Steelers’ fans.  I am loath to call for a coach to be fired because in the end the coach is not the one who makes the play or scores the TD.  However, 400 yards of offense is a good benchmark for a “Big Offensive Output” and the Steelers have now gone the equivalent of more than two full seasons of regular season play without demonstrating a “Big Offensive Output”.  Keep an ear to the ground on this matter; it is not going to go away quietly.

Back in early September, I made my annual NFL predictions for 2023 and one of the coaches that I had on my “Hot Seat” list was Bill Belichick.  My reasoning then was that owner Robert Kraft is now in his 80s and that he might be getting “impatient” for a return to times like the AFC Championship Game – – or better.  Earlier this week, Jeff Howe of The Athletic had a report that contained these tidbits:

“There’s a school of thought that suggests Bill Belichick has earned the right to go out on his own accord, that the architect of the greatest dynasty in NFL history can coach in New England as long as he chooses.  Kraft doesn’t subscribe to it.”

And …

“Kraft likes to remind people he grew up as a Patriots fan during the organization’s darkest days, but that doesn’t mean he has the patience to endure more of them. On multiple occasions in recent years, he has lamented the team’s lack of a postseason victory in the post-Brady era. … Kraft has grown frustrated, if not downright angry, over this shortage of success.”

I listed the Pats as one of the “Bad Teams” above in my “Eyeball Categories”.  This is another situation to keep in mind as the season progresses.  Frankly, what I think should be a first step for Kraft and the Pats would be to replace Belichick as the team’s GM and hire a real GM with the necessary support for that position.  But I don’t own the team …

Let me use one example of a failed personnel move by the Pats.  In last year’s free agency, the Pats allowed Jakobi Meyers to sign on with the Raiders.  So far in 2023, Meyers has caught 25 passes for 275 yards and 3 TDs.  Meyers is averaging 11 yards per catch.

GM Belichick brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster during free agency; it is hard to see JuJu in any light other than as a replacement for Meyers.  So far in 2023, JuJu has caught 14 passes for 86 yards and 0 TDs.  JuJu is averaging 6.1 yards per catch.

The Pats are not the only NFL team that is floundering in 2023.  The Broncos brought in a Super Bowl winning coach in Sean Payton with the idea that Payton had worked with Drew Brees and had developed ways to make an undersized QB with merely an average arm into a top-shelf QB who will be in the Hall of Fame one of these days.  Well, so far that has not worked even a little bit.  The Broncos are 1-5 (after losing Thursday Night’s game) and Russell Wilson is no better this year than he was last year.

I don’t recall who it was who pointed out that the Eagles play the Jets this week and that the Jets have never beaten the Eagles.  The two teams have met 12 times; the Jets are 0-12.  I wonder if Jets’ coach Robert Saleh will make that part of his pre-game speech to the team …

Meanwhile, the Eagles had better not look past the Jets this week because they will see an absolutely brutal eight-game schedule stretch from October 22 through December 17:

1. Vs. Dolphins
2. At Commanders
3. Vs. Cowboys
4. At Chiefs
5. Vs. Bills
6. Vs. Niners
7. At Cowboys
8. At Seahawks

Henry Kissinger famously said this about schedules:

“There cannot be a crisis next week.  My schedule is already full.”

Here are some comments about last week’s games:

Raiders 17  Packers 13:  When a defense holds an opponent to 17 points, the odds are that such a performance will produce a win.  However, when the QB for that same team also throws 3 INTs in the game, the odds can change.  Absent those 3 INTs, this game was dead even on the stat sheet as well as on the scoreboard.

Jags 25  Bills 20:  The Jags spent two weeks in London this year and came away with two wins.  The Bills’ defense had shown up big-time two weeks ago stifling the high-octane Dolphins’ offense, but in this game the Bills’ defense allowed 425 yards of offense by the Jags.  Meanwhile, the Jags’ defense made the Bills’ offense one-dimensional allowing only 29 yards rushing on 14 attempts in the game.

Steelers 17 Ravens 10:  For the first 20 minutes of this game, it looked as if the Ravens would win by at least two TDs if not three.  The Steelers’ offense in the first quarter ran 9 plays and gained all of 21 yards.  But the Steelers’ defense kept plugging and the Ravens’ offense went somnambulant, and the game came down to the 4^th quarter with the Ravens holding onto a 10-3 lead.  In the 4^th quarter here is what happened:

• The Steelers blocked a punt resulting in a safety.
• Then the Steelers got a field goal on the next possession to make the score 10-8.
• Then the Steelers got a TD but missed the two-point conversion making the score 14-10.
• A final field goal with less than 3 minutes left in the game produced the final score.

Meanwhile, here is what the Ravens did with the ball in the 4^th quarter:

• 3 plays – – minus-6 yards – – BLOCKED PUNT FOR A SAFETY
• 3 plays – – 8 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – INT
• 2 plays – – 11 yards – – FUMBLE
• 4 plays – – minus-3 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

            Let me do the math for you here.  The Ravens ran 15 plays, turned the ball over twice, had a punt blocked and had a net gain of 12 yards in a quarter of football.

The Ravens and Steelers will meet again this year; conveniently, that game will be on January 7^th, 2024, and it will be the final game of the season.  There could well be playoff implications tied to the outcome then.  The Steelers need to avoid playing the way they did in the first quarter last week and the Ravens need to avoid playing the way they did in the fourth quarter last week.

Lions 42  Panthers 24:  The Lions are for real; the Panthers are still winless.  This game was pretty even on the stat sheet; the Lions only gained 35 more yards on offense in the game.  The Panthers turned the ball over 3 times in the first half setting up the Lions to take a 28-10 lead into the locker room.  The Lions’ game this week against the Bucs was bumped to a late afternoon start to put them in front of a potentially larger TV audience; it has been a while since that happened to the Lions.

Falcons 21  Texans 19:  The Falcons outgained the Texans by 134 yards in the game, held the ball for more than 35 minutes in the game, converted 7 of 14 third-down conversions – – and still needed a last-minute drive to set up a winning field goal in the game.  Two turnovers by the Texans did not help their cause at all.

Dolphins 31  Giants 16:  The Giants got a Pick-Six in the game to make the score seem more respectable than the game really was.  Consider:

• Dolphins’ total offense = 524 yards
• Giants’ total offense = 268 yards

And …

• Dolphins’ average yards per play = 9.7 yards per play
• Giants’ average yards per play = 3.9 yards per play.

The Miami defense also sacked Daniel Jones 7 times in the game.

Saints 34  Pats 0:  This makes two games in a row where the Pats have lost by more than 30 points.  The Saints’ defense started the scoring with a Pick-Six and then limited the Pats to a meager 156 yards of offense for the day.  This was an organized ass-kicking.  After the game, Coach Belichick spoke obliquely about “starting over”.  I suspect it is way too late to “start over” for the 2023 season.

Colts 23  Titans 16:  Forget about the return of Jonathan Taylor to the Colts’ lineup for a moment; this game belonged to his backup RB, Zack Moss who carried 23 times for 265 yards and 2 TDs.  Gardner Minshew once again came into the game in relief of Anthony Richardson and the Colts’ defense held Derrick Henry to only 43 yards for the day.

Bengals 34  Cards 20:  Joe Burrow had a ”Joe Burrow Style Day” with this stat line:

• 36 of 46 for 317 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT.

Meanwhile, Joshua Dobbs also had a “Joshua Dobbs Style Day” with this stat line:

• 15 of 32 for 166 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

By the way, Jamar Chase caught all three of those TD passes from Joe Burrow…

Eagles 23  Rams 14:  The Eagles’ defense pitched a shutout in the second half to secure this victory.  The Eagles dominated the stat sheet gaining 454 yards to only 249 for the Rams.  AJ Brown had another big game catching 6 passes for 125 yards.  The Eagles held the ball for almost 38 minutes in the game.  The Eagles converted 13 of 18 third downs allowing them to enjoy that Time of Possession advantage.

Chiefs 27  Vikes 20:  The game was dead-even on the stat sheet:

• Chiefs:  67 yards rushing and 266 yards passing
• Vikes:  70 yards rushing and 259 yards passing

The Chiefs are 4-1 and have not played a “Chiefs’ quality game” yet this year.  [Aside:  That loss was by a single point in Week 1.]  Is this an off year for the Chiefs where the schedule collapses on them or should the NFL be very afraid of what their record might be if they ever put all the pieces together?  Stay tuned…  To make things even worse for the Vikes, they had to put WR Justin Jefferson on IR this week meaning he will be out for at least the next 4 games.

Jets 31  Broncos 21:  The Jets trailed 10-8 at halftime and then dominated the second half of the game.  Zach Wilson played Russel Wilson to a standoff here; Zach had more passing yards on fewer attempts, but he threw an INT.  Russell threw 2 TDs but also surrendered a safety in the game for intentional grounding while he was in the end zone.  The Jets amassed 407 yards of offense here while the Broncos only managed 308 yards.  The Jets only had 1 offensive TD in the game (a 72-yard run by Breece Hall).  The rest of the scoring came from a safety, 5 field goals and a short field TD set up by a fumble recovery.

Niners 42  Cowboys 10:  The stat sheet was as lopsided as the score; the Niners ran up 421 yards on offense despite only running the ball for about the final 10 minutes of the game; the Cowboys’ offense only managed an anemic 197 yards for the game.  Dak Prescott’s stat line was particularly unimpressive:

• 14 of 24 for 153 yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs

 

Games This Week:

 

Here are the teams with a BYE this week:

1. Packers:  They get an extra week to chew on a lackluster offensive performance from last week.  The Packers are 2 full games behind the Lions in the NFC North; they need to “get it right” awfully soon.
2. Steelers:  There is no quit nor any glaring weakness in the Steelers’ defense.  There is no glaring area of competence in the Steelers’ offense.  They get a week off to work on that offense.

In last night’s game on Thursday Night Football, the Chiefs beat the Broncos 19-8.  The Chiefs got into the Red Zone 5 times in the game and scored only 1 TD; if you told an opposing coach that his team would do that in a game, that coach would probably be chalking up a victory.

The Broncos’ defense was more than adequate last night; the Broncos offense – – to be most polite – – was uninspiring.  The play-calling was plain vanilla, and the execution was better than listless but not a lot better.  The Broncos are 1-5; the trade deadline arrives in two weeks; the Broncos traded away a boatload of draft capital to acquire Russell Wilson.  Might the Broncos be in rebuilding mode starting with the trade deadline that is careening toward them?

Ravens – 4 at Titans (41):  Both teams lost last week and now they get to travel all the way to London to play this week.  I expect this one to come down to the final moments of the 4^th quarter.

Commanders at Falcons – 2.5 (42.5):  The Commanders come to this game off a Thursday Night Football game meaning they have had “extra time” to try to figure out the answers to two “issues”:

1. Why has a defense that sports 6 first round picks in its starting lineup given up 160 points in 5 games?
2. Can Offensive Coordinator, Eric Bienemy call a game that will keep Sam Howell from being sacked more than 5 times?

Washington fans love the new team owner – – but patience is running out with the coaching staff and some of the players.  The Falcons need this game to keep pace in their division; the Commanders need this game to keep body and soul together.

Vikes – 2.5 at Bears (43.5):  The Total Line here opened at 48.5 points.  This was my runner-up for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Bears looked good beating the Commanders the last time out; the Vikes are getting nothing but bad breaks and heartaches after last year’s run of good fortune.  Do not be surprised if the Bears win this one and break their long losing streak…

Seahawks at Bengals – 2.5 (45):  Joe Burrow looked as if his leg injury has healed against the Cards last week.  If that is the case, the Bengals are the better team in this matchup – – but the key words here are “If that is the case…”

Niners – 7.5 at Browns (37):  The spread opened at 3 points and the Total Line opened at 42 points.  Those movements indicate to me that people do not think Deshaun Watson is going to play again this week; reports say he did not practice on Wednesday after having last week off on a BYE Week.  If Watson does not go, that means either PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson must take on the Niners’ defense.  Not good…  On the other hand, the Niners invested a lot of emotional capital in their trouncing of the Cowboys last week; there could easily be a let-down here.  The Niners are the better team – – but I’ll pass on this one.

Saints – 1 at Texans (42):  The spread opened the week as a “Pick ‘em” game.  There is a betting philosophy out there that says you should take a home underdog if that underdog has the better defense.  The Texans’ defense is good, but it is not necessarily better than the Saint’s defense.  I’ll pass on this game.

Colts at Jags – 4 (44):  The winner of this game will be in the lead in the AFC South Division; that fact puts this over the top as my Game of the Week.  It looks as if Gardner Minshew will be starting in place of Anthony Richardson this week; but frankly, I am not so sure that is a big step backward for the Colts.  Is Jonathan Taylor ready to play like a guy who has been the NFL rushing leader in seasons past?  I’ll go with the teams scoring on each other and take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Dolphins – 13.5 (47.5):  This shapes up as a blowout where the Dolphins might take the game OVER all by themselves.  On the other hand, this is a classic “trap game” for the Dolphins playing the sorry-assed Giants last week and looking ahead to a game against the Eagles next week.

Lions – 3 at Bucs (42):  The Total Line opened at 45 points and dropped to nearly this level early in the week.  Call me a wild-eyed optimist here, but I think the Lions are a very good football team in 2023 and the oddsmakers/betting public have undervalued them here because of the Lions’ history of – – well – – being the Lions.  I like the Lions to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Pats at Raiders – 3 (41):  Here is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Neither team seems to be capable of winning this game; one of them will surely lose the game.

Cards at Rams – 7 (48):  The spread for this game opened at 4.5 points while the Total Line opened at 45.5 points.  If you believe that QB is the most important part of an NFL team, you have to like the Rams here; Matthew Stafford is significantly better as a QB than Joshua Dobbs.

Eagles at Jets – 7 (41):  Can the Eagles make it 13 wins in a row over the Jets?  The Eagles’ defense should make it a hard day for Zach Wilson; the Jets’ defense can make it a hard day for any team in the league.

(Sun Nite) Giants at Bills – 14.5 (44.5):  The Bills stunk it out in London last week; the Giants just stink.  No way I play an NFL game with a spread of 14.5 points – – but I will not be surprised to see the Bills put a pasting on the Giants here.

(Mon Nite) Cowboys – 2.5 at Chargers (51):  The Total Line opened at 47 points and jumped to this level quickly.  Dak Prescott had a miserable game last week against the Niners’ defense; this is the Chargers’ defense and the only similarity to the Niners ‘defense is that both teams use 11 players at a time on defense.  I would pay attention to the Cowboys’ secondary in this game; it looked very vulnerable last week with the absence of Trevon Diggs.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Florida +2.5 against S. Carolina
• USC/Notre Dame UNDER 61.5
• Lions – 3 over Bucs
• Jags/Colts OVER 44

And just for fun, here is a Money Line Parlay for the week:

• Lions @ minus-180
• Rams @ minus-310
• $100 wager to win $106

            Finally, let me close here with these words from former Notre Dame coach, Dan Devine:

 “There are two kinds of people in the world, Notre Dame lovers and Notre Dame haters. And, quite frankly, they’re both a pain in the ass.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Anyone who had been reading these rants for any length of time ought to understand that I have nothing but a low regard for the folks at the NCAA.  Given the effectiveness and the value-added that the NCAA provides to collegiate athletics, I think many of the people drawing paychecks there are nothing more than animated suit dummies.  Having said that, it is important to recognize the truth in the adage:

• Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

The rule makers and guardians of intercollegiate athletics have come to the conclusion that the “Transfer Portal” is out of control and needs “fixing”.  Give these minor functionaries credit for seeing that there is a problem; then ask yourself if they have moved to resolve it.

The NCAA Division 1 Council approved changes to the Transfer Portal that would affect all intercollegiate sports endeavors.  The headline news is that the Portal for football and for men’s and women’s basketball will be reduced from 60 days to 45 days.  Be still my heart while I process the significance of such a sea change…

Other intercollegiate sports will have different “portal windows” but this is the best “resolution” that the NCAA braintrust could come up with for the most visible activities involving the Transfer Portal.   Let me be brutally honest here:

• I do not care at all about college fencers who transfer from Hoity-Toity U to En Garde Tech.  I suspect that few if any other folks do either.

So, the net result of the changes made by the NCAA’s aminated suit dummies who saw there was “a problem” is to collapse the time available to an athlete seeking a transfer by 25%.  Please do not try to convince me that this is significant; if a college athlete – – nominally one who is intellectually worthy of being a college student – – cannot make a transfer decision in less than 6 weeks maybe they ought not be in college.  The Transfer Portal has myriad “issues”, but the length of time given to the athletes to conclude their negotiations regarding where they will play next is probably about Priority 42.  As is always the case when cosmetic changes are made to entities or processes that have major flaws, there are carefully worded statements by the folks making the cosmetic changes.  The chair of the Division 1 Council had this to say:

“In both men’s and women’s basketball, the council determined that a 45-day window that concludes on or before May 1 best enables coaches to understand their current rosters, provides stability for student-athletes remaining at the school as they prepare for summer basketball, and encourages student-athletes who intend to transfer to do so before final exams at their current schools and summer school application deadlines at most campuses.  Moving forward, we will continue to evaluate the impact of transfer windows on student-athletes, coaches and athletics programs.”

The major issue with the coupling of NIL money plus the easy/unrestrained Transfer Portal is that college sports has become a giant free agent marketplace.  And the question for the fans of college sports – – you know, the ones who provide the support that translates into big time dollars for schools and conferences – – is simple:

• Assume your school does not compete well in this helter-skelter transfer portal environment, are you happy to see that your archrival has figured the system out better than your coaches/administrators have?

Here is my outline for how the Transfer Portal should operate.  Remember, the athletes who are thinking of using it are adults; they are eligible to vote; they can operate motor vehicles; they can purchase firearms in most states; they can serve in the military.  They are not naïve children.

• Any athlete in any sport can accept a scholarship at any school and subsequently determine that they made a bad choice.  Maybe the team environment doesn’t work; maybe the academics do not work; whatever …  The “first choice school” is not working and will not work.  That athlete should be able to transfer to any other NCAA school that would have them as a student with no penalty or obstacle such as a period of ineligibility.
• Here is where I get stubborn …  After transferring with no penalty, the athlete is in his second athletic-scholastic situation; if that one is not also to his/her liking, then maybe he/she needs to think about paying a price to try to find a third situation that works for them.  Remember, they are adults; they need to make choices in their lives and live with the consequences.  So, in my world construct, an athlete seeking a second transfer would need to spend one full calendar year at the “third school” before being eligible to play whatever sport they are in school to play.
•  And if it happens that the third school is also somehow unsuitable for the athlete, his next transfer would incur a two-year period of ineligibility.
• And I think you see where this is going into the future…

Let me channel Rhett Butler here.  Frankly, I don’t give a damn how long the transfer window is open.  That is not the issue that can eat at the fundamental fabric of college athletics which is something one might suspect the NCAA would care about.  But it is so convenient and so easy and so amenable to PR statements for the Division 1 Council to change the timing of the Transfer Portal that it is no surprise to me that they came to that conclusion.

Finally, let me close here with these words from the Roman poet, Horace:

“Our sires’ age was worse than our grandsires’.  We their sons are more worthless than they; so, in our turn, we shall give the world a progeny yet more corrupt.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

“Bait-and-switch” is a scam or a con wherein someone advertises an appealing product at a very attractive price with no intention of selling that product at all; rather, at the last moment an inferior product is substituted for the one that was advertised.  Often, bait-and-switch operations are illegal.

I went grazing on the Internet yesterday afternoon to check on the status of Jon Gruden’s lawsuit against the NFL for a whole bunch of things related to his being fired as the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders after some less than proper emails from him became known to the public.  As I have said here before, I am rooting for Gruden to be allowed to have his case heard in open court where evidence that is introduced is simultaneously available to the public.  Other than hoping for an open and public trial, I do not particularly care at this point if Gruden prevails in his lawsuit; I just want this one adjudicated in the public sphere.

The status of the case is pretty simple:

• The suit was filed about 2 years ago.  The NFL immediately sought to take it away from the Nevada State courts and to have the case decided by arbitration.
• Arbitration would provide a hearing for Gruden – – but none of the evidence would necessarily see the light of day.  The public would learn of the arbitration decision and not much more.
• The trial court in Nevada denied the NFL’s motion to reassign the matter to arbitration and the NFL naturally appealed that ruling.  The matter now resides with the Nevada Supreme Court; if that court upholds the trial court decision, the matter will remain in open court pending a likely appeal by the NFL to the US Supreme Court.

Basically, nothing much has happened in the case in more than a year and even if Gruden prevails in the Nevada Supreme Court, it looks as if it will be at least a couple more years before any final determination of the venue for the action is reached.  And, as I thought about the case status and the possible next steps along the path to resolution, I began to wonder if the NFL is simply doing a bait-and-switch here.

• The legal teams here are going through all their motions to reach a final conclusion on how this matter will be heard and decided.
• People like me who want to know what else might have been in the cache of emails that was not leaked to the NY Times and Wall Street Journal which kicked this snowball off the cliff in the first place continue to pay attention and hope for a trial in open court.
• However, in the end, that is probably not going to happen even if Jon Gruden wins at the US Supreme Court level because at that point the NFL can and would likely settle the matter out of court with a “sizeable” payment that only a business entity of the size and scope of the NFL can afford.

Now that I have composed these thoughts, maybe bait-and-switch is not the proper metaphor here.  Perhaps the better analogy is that I am Charlie Brown, and the NFL is Lucy holding the football for me to kick.  You know what Lucy does every time that situation obtains …

In another situation involving a fired football coach, Pat Fitzgerald has filed a lawsuit against Northwestern University alleging wrongful termination; he is seeking $130M from the university in the matter.  The suit alleges that Northwestern is in breach of two contracts (No, I do not know anything about multiple contracts), that the school defamed Fitzgerald and that Northwestern intentionally inflicted emotional distress on Fitzgerald.  Recall that Fitzgerald was initially suspended by the university for two weeks after allegations of hazing within the football program were investigated by the university.  At the time of the suspension, the university president said in a communication to the Northwestern community that the investigation did not find “any credible evidence that Coach Fitzgerald himself knew anything about it”.

Recall in the Watergate hearings, Senator Howard Baker (R-TN) framed the critical issue before the Select Committee as:

“What did the President know and when did he know it?”

It seems to me that is similarly a key question in this lawsuit against Northwestern University – – except the “president” in this matter is the president of a university and not the President of the United States.

And while we are flailing about in the legal soup related to fired football coaches, Mel Tucker is also reported to be gearing up a wrongful termination suit against Michigan State.  Tucker lost his job after he was accused of having phone sex with a woman without her consent.  I have not found any reports of a lawsuit having been filed, but lawyers representing Tucker did send a 106-page letter to the interim-president of Michigan State claiming to have evidence that the woman accusing Tucker in this matter “manipulated a key witness” and also “deleted key evidence”.

Three head football coaches; two wrongful termination lawsuits and probably a third; tens of millions of dollars involved in the “terminations for cause”; and I suspect that it will be at least 5 years before all three matters come to a close.  Sit back and enjoy the ride…

Finally, given the topic of the day, it seems appropriate for me to close with this trio of observations:

“The penalty for laughing in a courtroom is six months in jail; if it were not for this penalty, the jury would never hear the evidence.”  [H. L. Mencken]

And …

“Lawsuit, n:  A machine which you go into as a pig and come out as a sausage.”  [Ambrose Bierce]

And …

“If law school is so hard to get through, how come there are so many lawyers?  [Calvin Trillin]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The first round of the MLB playoffs produced four series sweeps.  The ongoing Division Series might produce two series sweeps, but if that happens it will be surprising.  The Astros and Twins are tied at 1 game each; the next two games will be in Minnesota.  The Phillies and the Braves are also tied at 1 game each and the next two games will be in Philly.  Both of those series have provided interesting and exciting baseball; I expect they will continue to do so.

The other two Division Series matchups are a bit surprising.  The Orioles had the best record in the American League in 2023 winning 101 games.  At home, the Orioles posted a winning percentage of .605.  Meanwhile, the Rangers won only 90 games this season and the Rangers had a slightly losing record on the road (40-41).  So, naturally, the Rangers went into Baltimore and won the first two games in the series.  Of course …

In one of the National League series, the D-Backs lead the Dodgers 2-0.  In the regular season the Dodgers won 100 games and had a home winning record of 53-28 (.654).  The Dodgers posted a run differential for the season of +207 runs.  Looking back at the regular season, the D-Backs limped into the playoffs having won 84 games and they were only 41-40 in road games.  In addition, and despite their winning record for the season, the D-Backs posted a negative run differential for the year (minus-15 runs).  So naturally, the D-Backs went into LA and won the first two games of the series – – outscoring the Dodgers 15-4.  Of course …

A lot of commentators are calling for a change in the playoff format because – – the argument goes – – teams with a BYE in the wildcard round get “rusty” waiting to play the winners of those wildcard series and so some of the “best teams” get eliminated quickly.  If you run across one of those arguments, please keep this in mind:

• If we knew for certain who the “best teams” – – or better yet, the “best team” – – at the end of the regular season, there would be no need for any playoffs of any kind including the World Series.
• These playoffs seek to determine the year’s “best team” on the field and not on the stat sheets.

The 2023 regular season was a very good one for MLB.  The overall attendance increased 9.6%; the total number of fans entering through the stadium turnstiles was 70,747,365 souls.  Even more important, only 4 of the 30 MLB teams saw a decline in attendance:

1. White Sox – – down 4,194 fans per game
2. Nats – – down 1,982 fans per game
3. Cardinals – – down 981 fans per game
4. Dodgers – – down 300 fans per game

Forget the Dodgers figure here; the Dodgers led MLB in average attendance with 47,371 fans per game; that decrease for this year is a blip.  The Cardinals had a miserable and disappointing season; the White Sox were similarly miserable and disappointing plus they had a shooting in their stadium which is of no promotional benefit and the Nats play in a front-running town and the Nats were never front-running this year.  The other 26 teams enjoyed average attendance increases ranging from the Phillies (+9,579 fans per game) to the NY Mets (+109 fans per game).

I would have to say that the rule changes that sped up games by an average of 24 minutes per game proved to be positive changes for the game.  TV ratings for nationally televised games were also up by 10% which is another positive sign for MLB.

Moving on …  The regular season in the Canadian Football League is winding down; their playoffs begin on November 4^th and the CFL championship game – – the Grey Cup – – will happen on November 19^th in Hamilton, ONT.  The CFL playoff format is similar to the MLB format.  Three teams from each division make the playoffs and the division winner gets a BYE Week.  The CFL has an odd number of teams so one team gets a “BYE Week” every week.  As of today, most of the CFL teams have played 16 games; two teams have played only 15 games; the regular season is 18 games long and has been that way since the 1980s.

The teams that will make the CFL playoffs in 2023 have pretty much been determined but there are still seeding issues to be resolved in the final games.

• In the East, the Toronto Argonauts will win the division and get the BYE.    The Montreal Alouettes and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats will both make the playoffs, but it is not yet certain which team will finish second in the division and get a home game for the first playoff round.
• In the West, the Winnipeg Blue-Bombers lead the BC Lions by one game with two games left to play.  In addition the Saskatchewan Roughriders have two more wins than either of the teams chasing them, but the Roughriders have lost 5 games in a row.

Finally, let me close today with these words from author, Ambrose Bierce:

“Prayer, n:  To ask all the laws of the universe be annulled on behalf of a single petitioner confessedly unworthy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Miley Cyrus said:

“I take a hiatus every now and again, but I’m not good at it.”

Well, after my brief hiatus, let me say that I think I am quite good at it and that my long-suffering wife and I very much enjoyed ourselves over the past week and a half.  So, today will be the return of Football Friday and to get things started, let me review the “Betting Bundle” from two weeks ago:

• College:  1-3-0 => Cumulative:  3-4-0
• NFL:   0-0-0  => Cumulative:  4-3-0
• Parlays:  1-1  “Profit” = $119  =>  Cumulative:  3-2  “Profit” = $314

 

College Football Commentary :

 

            The Linfield College Wildcats extended their record to 3-0 by overwhelming conference foe, Willamette University by a score of 70-14.  This week, Linfield goes on the road to Portland, OR to take on the Lewis and Clark Pioneers.  Lewis and Clark is 2-2 on the season; they share one common opponent with Linfield.  Lewis and Clark also dominated Willamette two weeks ago by a score of 38-7.  Go Wildcats!

This weekend is the Texas State Fair and that means it is also the time for the Texas/Oklahoma football game – – dubbed the Red River Rivalry.  Over the past several years, this game had lost some of its historical luster; there were seasons where both teams were ranked in the Top Ten and this was a huge deal.  Well, both teams are ranked highly again this year; the AP has Texas ranked #3 and Oklahoma ranked #12.  Big game; big rivalry.

Another big game this week will be the Alabama/Texas A&M game in College Station, TX.  Both teams are undefeated in conference games; the winner here will not only take the lead in the SEC West, but it will also own the tiebreaker between the teams should that become necessary.  I know it is awfully early in the season to call this a “must win” game for either team or to say that the loser here will be eliminated from the SEC West race – – but the game does have that vibe …

Alabama coach, Nick Saban will have to deal with a coach this week who was once part of his staff in Jimbo Fisher.  Saban can also look at another coach in a big game this week who used to be part of his program at Alabama in Steve Sarkissian at Texas.  And don’t forget about Kirby Smart at Georgia too.  Saban has been a mentor to all three of those successful coaches which reminds me of an observation about mentors by the author Bo Sanchez:

“Getting a mentor is a shortcut to success.”

By the way, the plan for the SEC next year is to get rid of the East and West Divisions with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference.  The SEC Championship Game will simply pit the #1 team against the #2 team in the 16-team conference.

In the SEC East, there are 3 undefeated teams – – Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri – – and they all get to play one another.  And, Tennessee has only one loss this year meaning that if it runs the table, it will win the SEC East.  I know it’s early, but there is plenty of “sorting out” needed in the SEC East.

Penn State has been on a 10-game winning streak ever since losing to Ohio State last season.  The Nittany Lions should make that 11 games in a row when they host UMass next week after a BYE Week this week – – and then comes a road game at Ohio State.  Look forward to that one…

• [Aside:  This weekend, UMass is a 19-point underdog to Toledo.  Why are they going to play Penn State next week?]

Florida State is undefeated this year and has already played LSU and Clemson.  They had a BYE Week last weekend and now have 3 consecutive home conference games against Va Tech, Syracuse and Duke.  It is conceivable tat the Seminoles will be undefeated on Nov 11^th when they host the Miami Hurricanes and maybe on November 25^th when they visit Gainesville. FL to take on Florida.

When Ole Miss beat LSU 55-49 last week, it put Ole Miss in a position to win the SEC West and gave it a manageable schedule.  The Rebels do have a two-week rough spot to navigate in early November hosting Texas A&M one week and then traveling to play Georgia on the road the next week.

Just to track the Iowa scoring record for the season – – because Iowa’s offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’ job depends on it – – the Hawkeyes have scored 111 points in 5 games.  To keep his job, the team needs to average 25 points per game.  You do the math …  Oh, and by the way, Iowa starting QB, Cade McNamara will be out for the rest of the season.  Yowza!

• [Aside:  Iowa scored 26 points last week but 7 of them came on a punt return.  Do those count as part of the necessary 25-point average for the season?  Let the lawyers begin to parse the clauses in that contract…]

After two tough games in a row – – both resulting in losses – – Colorado takes on Arizona State and then Stanford over this weekend and next.  The Buffaloes have a rather clear path to bowl eligibility this year which is something that was not conceivable last year in Boulder, CO.

USC is one of the teams to beat Colorado in the last two weeks.  The Trojans ran off to a huge lead, but Colorado rallied to make the final score very respectable at 48-41.  USC is undefeated and ranked 10^th in the country this week – – but the Trojans’ defense is very suspect.

If you look at the AP rankings this week, you will find three Big-10 teams in the Top-6.  Once Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State get through playing one another – – as will happen since they are all in the same division – – that will all get sorted out.

Just an update on the “race to the bottom” to determine this year’s Brothel Defense Award which goes to the team that gives up the most points per game.  As of this morning, here are the “contenders”:

• North Texas giving up 43.0 points per game.
• UMass giving up 39.2 points per game.
• So. Mississippi giving up 39.0 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Syracuse at UNC – 9.5 (59.5):  Syracuse is 4-1 for the season and finds itself almost a “double-digit dog” on the road here.

Kentucky at Georgia – 14.5 (48):  Kentucky is undefeated this year and finds itself a two-touchdown plus a hook underdog on the road here.  Georgia is undefeated this year but against Division 1-A teams the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 against the spread.  I can’t see Kentucky winning this one, but I do think they can hang with Georgia here based on their running game.  I’ll take Kentucky plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

LSU – 4.5 at Missouri (65):  The spread opened the week at 7 points and has shrunk to this level over the course of the week.  Meanwhile the Total Line opened the week at 62.5 points and has expanded over the course of the week.  The oddsmakers did not anticipate the money that would come in on this game very well last Sunday night.

Oklahoma at Texas – 6 (60):  This is my “College Game of the Week”.  The winner here has a clear shot to be on the short list for the CFP come December.  I see this game as an offensive explosion, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Arizona at USC – 22 (71):  If you like a good defensive battle, do not watch this game.

Oregon St. – 9 at Cal (51):  The Beavers are 4-1 and are coming off an upset win over Utah last week.  Yes, I know; Utah still does not have its starting QB ready for action; nonetheless consider this stat from the game:

• Oregon State ran for 227 yards against a Utah defense that had only been giving up 51.5 yards per game this year.

Cal is 3-2 this year but against its only “tough opponent” so far, they were dominated 59-32 by Washington.

Alabama – 1 at Texas A&M (47):  I came close to putting the “College Game of the Week” on this game.  The spread opened the week at 3.5 points and has been slowly dropping all week long.  I am more interested in the Total Line here.  Both teams play good defense and neither team offers an explosive offense.  So, absent defensive scores or special teams scores, I am not sure where the 48^th point will come from.  So, I’ll take this game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Dick Butkus died yesterday at the age of 80.  He was the middle linebacker that every NFL and AFL team wanted to have on its roster in the 1960s and early 1970s.  He played the game with a ferocity that was unmatched.  Off the field, Butkus was soft-spoken and thoughtful; he spent time after his playing days came to an end due to knee injuries in the broadcasting booth and as an actor for movies and TV.

Rest in peace, Dick Butkus.

#2 son likes to ferret out trivia questions for me.  He ran across some “standings” that were created by someone who obviously wanted to make the NFL schedule seem like the MLB schedule so he – – I am assuming that only a guy would do something like this – – went back and compiled the record for all 32 NFL teams over their last 162 games.  The math is not hard, but it is a lot of work to – – seemingly – – no significant end.

In any event, #2 son posed this challenge to me:

• The “Top-5” NFL teams all have 100 wins or more over their last 162 games; name them.

I got three of the “Top-5”.  The Chiefs, Pats and Steelers all had 100 wins or more.  I whiffed on the other two which were the Seahawks and the Packers.

Naturally, as the presiding officer here in Curmudgeon Central, I wanted to know who the “Bottom-5” were.  Again, three of the five were pretty obvious – – Bears, Browns and Jags.  I thought the Lions would be in the “Bottom 5”, but they were not.  So, I will pose the question to you here:

• Who are the other two teams to join the Bears, Browns and Jags on this “Bottom-5” List?
• The answer will be a few paragraphs later…

I also got an email from a former colleague who sent along a trivia fact but did not use it to pose a question.  It is interesting by itself:

• The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers had a Top-5 pick in the NFL Draft was in 1970 when they used that pick to take QB Terry Bradshaw.

David Carr – – Derek Carr’s older brother – – currently holds the unenviable record for taking the most sacks in an NFL season.  That happened when David Carr was the rookie QB for the expansion Houston Texans in 2002.  Carr was sacked 76 times in that season; only he and Randall Cunningham had the great honor to be sacked more than 70 times in a season.  Carr’s record would seem to be in jeopardy as of this morning:

• Sam Howell (Commanders) has been sacked 24 times in 4 games.  For a 17-game season that projects to 102 sacks for the season.
• Daniel Jones (Giants) has been sacked 22 times in 4 games.  For a 17-game season that projects to 93.5 sacks for the season.

Yes, it is a small sample size, but at anything near this pace, both Howell and Jones will blow by Carr’s record sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

The Green Bay Packers have an unusual aspect to their schedule.  Their last game was on Thursday September 28^th when they lost to the Lions 34-20.  This weekend they do not play until Monday night.  That is an 11-day “respite”.  But wait, there’s more …  After playing the Raiders this Monday night, the Packers get their BYE Week; their next game would be on October 22^nd meaning the Packers will play one game in 23 days.  That does not happen to NFL teams routinely.

• Trivia Answer:  the other two teams on the “Bottom-5” list from above at the Jets and the Giants.

I am not going to go through all the games from the past two weeks with comments on all of them – – but there are some that seem worthy of note.

Texans 30   Steelers 6:  Who saw this coming?   The Texans rookie QB didn’t look like a rookie here throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns in the game and the Texans posted 450 total yards on offense.  I said a couple of weeks ago that Steelers’ Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada, has not been very capable over the last year or so with the team and he outdid his incompetence in this game.  The Steelers only generated 53 yards on offense in the first half here.

Seahawks 24  Giants 3:  Daniel Jones did nothing in that game to take the edge off his label of “Prime time flop”.  To be fair, he was sacked 11 times in the game meaning the Giants’ OL was playing their usual brand of failed pass protection.

Chargers 24  Raiders 17:  The Raiders’ defense showed up this week but having to start a rookie QB, Aiden O’Connell, did not allow the Raiders’ offense to keep up its end of the bargain in this game.  O’Connell did not throw up on his shoes in his first NFL start but he made plenty of “rookie mistakes” including losing two fumbles and taking 7 sacks in the game.  The Chargers’ defense played without Joey Bosa in the game, but Khalil Mack asserted himself with the following results:

• 10 tackles, 9 QB pressures, 2 forced fumbles and 6 QB sacks.

Not a bad day at the office …

Ravens 28  Browns 3:  The Browns never got to the Rad Zone until late in the 4^th quarter when the outcome was already decided.  Deshaun Watson was a late scratch from the game with a “shoulder injury”; so, the Browns were forced to start a rookie quarterback making his first career start resulting in a disaster for the offense. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, the Browns mustered all of 166 yards of offense and Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions.   The Browns get a BYE this week – – maybe just in time???

Broncos 31  Bears 28:  The Broncos were getting pantsed by the worst team in the NFL until late in the 3^rd quarter when the Broncos saved face with a stunning comeback from a 28-7 deficit. The Broncos’ defense played well in the second half slowing down Justin Fields.  The Broncos’ defense forced two turnovers in the second half including a defensive TD on a “Scoop-and-Score) to tie the game at 28.  In the first half, Justin Fields looked like the Bears’ QB of the future: he started the game with 16 straight complete passes and had 231 yards and three touchdowns in that first half. But the Bears reverted to form late in the game.  Here are the results of their last 4 possessions that began with the Bears leading 28-14 with only seconds remaining in the 3^rd quarter:

• 3 plays – – 10 yards – – 1:18 time of possession – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 10 yards – – 2:41 time of possession – – LOST FUMBLE
• 11 plays – – 57 yards – – 4:03 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 7 plays – – 22 yards – – 1:14 time of possession – – INT

Bills 48  Dolphins 20:  Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs connected for three touchdowns on the day.  The Dolphins’ defense was overwhelmed.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ offense – – the one that had scored 70 points the week before this one against the Broncos just could not keep pace.

Eagles 34  Commanders 31 (OT):  The Eagles remain unbeaten for the season and the Commanders demonstrated that they are not the mediocre team they have been for the last several seasons.  The big difference in the game was the inability of the Commanders to deal with Eagles WR, AJ Brown who had 9 receptions for 175 yards and 2 TDs for the game.

By the way, in last week’s games, it seems as if some NFL offensive units set their alarm clocks for the wrong time.  Consider:

• The Giants, Browns, Bengals and Pats scored only 3 points in their games.
• The Steelers scored 6 points in their game.
• The Falcons scored 7 points in their game.
• The Saints scored 9 points in their game.

Seven NFL teams did not reach double-digits last week …

In last night’s NFL action, the Bears won their first game of the year defeating the Commanders 40-20.  On one hand, the Bears deserved to win this game; they produced a balanced 451 yards on offense and did not turn the ball over.  The Bears played sound football.

I try not to use “gutter language” in these rants, but I think the appropriate way to describe the Commanders’ performance last night is that they “shat the bed”.  And that description applies to the offense, the defense and the play-calling on both offense and defense.  Specifically regarding the play-calling on offense, the Commanders “ran the ball” only 10 times in the game but even that statistic is inflated because 4 of those runs were scrambles by Sam Howell.  In reality, they ran the ball 6 times in the game.  That is not innovative or creative; that is dumb particularly when the QB is being hurried or hit on at least 75% of those pass attempts.  The Bears as a team had 2 sacks coming into this game; they recorded 5 sacks against the Commanders’ offensive line whose only “offensive” trait was its breath.

On defense, the Commanders have 6 first-round picks in their starting lineup.  That amalgamation allowed Justin Fields to produce 282 yards passing with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.  Ladies and gentlemen, Justin Fields is not going to be named as the All-Pro QB in the NFL this year.  Every Commanders’ player who suited up for last night’s game ought to be embarrassed this morning.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

BYE Weeks start now.  This week these teams will not see action:

1. Browns:  The Browns may not be a great team – – but they are a lot better with Deshaun Watson at QB – – and he can use another week off to get healthy.
2. Bucs:  The Bucs are 3-1 and lead the NFC South; I’m not sure they would prefer to have this week off.
3. Chargers:  The Chargers are averaging 27.5 points per game, and they are only 2-2 for the season.  They need to do something to get their defense right.
4. Seahawks:   The Seahawks are one game behind the niners in the NFC West, but their only loss was in a division game at home.  That could hurt them down the line.

            Before getting to the individual games, allow this overview comment.  There are many marginally interesting contests on the schedule for this weekend.  Picking the Game of the Week was a no-brainer; picking a single Dog-Breath Game of the Week was a challenge.

Jags at Bills – 6 (48):  This is a “London Game” with a wrinkle.  The Jags are playing in London for the second straight week; the Bills are crossing the pond this week.  Thanks, but no thanks on this game as a wagering proposition for me…

Texans at Falcons – 2 (41):  This line feels to me like leaning toward a home team because the visiting team is young and inexperienced.  You can call me out on this in a year or two, but I think the Falcons will win in spite of Desmond Ridder and not because of him.  I don’t know what may happen this weekend, but I think the Texans are on a better trajectory for the future than are the Falcons.

Panthers at Lions – 9 (44):  The line opened the week at 7 points; it expanded to 10 points in mid-week and seems to have settled at this number for now.  I think the Panthers are overmatched here and I think the Lions under Dan Quinn will not take their foot off the gas.  I like the Lions to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans – 2.5 at Colts (43):  The week opened with the Colts as 1.5-point favorites in the game, but all the momentum has been toward the Titans this week.  All four teams in the AFC South are 2-2 this morning, so this is an “important game” even if it is only Week 5.

Giants at Dolphins – 12.5 (47.5):  The Giants are awful; there is no way to sugar-coat that.  The Dolphins may not be as great as they seemed scoring 70 points against the Broncos, but they are clearly the better team here.  Losing to this Giants’ team would be an embarrassment of gargantuan proportion for the Dolphins.  The only reason I will not take the Dolphins and lay the points is that I do not play NFL games with double-digit spreads.

Saints at Pats “pick ‘em” (39.5):  This is the sort of team the Pats are designed to beat – – a team that does not score a lot of points which allows the Pats’ defense to smother them.  The Saints average 15.2 points per game this year.  No fireworks in this contest; the first team to 20 points is the winner.

Ravens – 4 at Steelers (38):  These AFC North division games usually end with the winner eking out a victory by a point or two and with the winner also looking as if he had been in a rock fight.  The Steelers’ offense is pathetic – – but the Steelers’ defense always shows up to play against Lamar Jackson.  There is some question about the Steelers’ QB situation.  If Kenny Pickett cannot go, that means Mitchell Trubisky against the Ravens’ defense and if that is the case, the Steelers’ defense will need to be close to perfect to make this a game.

Bengals – 3 at Cards (45):  The Bengals are 1-3; if they lose this game, they may just be done for the year in terms of “Super Bowl aspirations”.  Everything hinges on the lingering calf injury to Joe Burrow; if he is “healed”, the Bengals are the better team; if not …

Eagles – 4 at Rams (50): The spread here opened with the Eagles as 6-point favorites and the Total Line was set at 46.5 points.  There has been plenty of line movement in this one.  The Eagles are still unbeaten in 2023 but they have hardly appeared to be any sort of juggernaut; their point differential is only +28 points which is less than six other teams in the NFL five of which have a loss on their record.

Jets at Broncos – 2.5 (43.5):  You guessed it; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Can the Jets’ offense click here to save face for their OC, Nathanial Hackett?  The Jets may not even need that to win because the Jets’ defense ought to be able to contain Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense.  I rarely make a pick in the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but I think the wrong team is favored here.  Give me the Jets on the road plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Chiefs – 3.5 at Vikes (52.5):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and shrunk to this level as the week wore on.  The Vikes won last week to get off the schneid for 2023 but I have difficulty seeing the Vikes’ defense containing the Chiefs’ offense.  I like the Chiefs on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Cowboys at Niners – 3 (45):  This is so obviously the Game of the Week that I will entertain no debate on the topic.  Both teams are on a roll.

• The Cowboys have 3 wins this year – – by margins of 40 points, 20 points and 35 points.
• Somehow, the Cowboys managed to lose to the Cards along the way.
• The Niners are undefeated this year and have given up only 14.5 points per game.

(Mon Nite) Packers at Raiders – 1 (44):  Both teams looked bad, bad, bad in their last game.  The Raiders could only score 17 points against the Chargers’ defense and the Packers were pushed around by the Lions.  The Packers are the better team; the Raiders are at home; if you want to bet on this game, just bet on the coin flip.

So let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Texas/Oklahoma OVER 60
• Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER 47
• Kentucky +14.5 against Georgia
• Lions – 9 over Panthers
• Jets + 2.5 against Broncos
• Chiefs – 3.5 over Vikes

And just for fun here are three Money Line Parlays for the Week

• Jets @ +125
• Lions @ minus- 470
• $100 wager to win $173.

And …

• Texans @ +115
• Chiefs @ minus- 180
• $100 wager to win $234.

And …

• Lions @ minus-470
• Dolphins @ minus- 600
• Chiefs @ minus-180
• $100 wager to win $120.

Finally, I’ll close this Football Friday with an observation by former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden about one of his players:

“He doesn’t know the meaning of the word “fear”.  In fact, I just saw his grades and he doesn’t know the meaning of a lot of words.”

But don’t get me wrong, I Iove sports………