The Sports Curmudgeon

I ran across a stat that was unusual enough that I went to check it out.  Lou Gehrig was part of the famous Yankees’ team in 1927; he set a record for consecutive games played at 2,130 that stood until Cal Ripken, Jr. broke it about 60 years later; he also hit 4 home runs in consecutive at bats in a single game in 1932 – – a feat that has not been duplicated.  Those are “highlight stats” that most baseball fans know by heart.  Here is another amazing Lou Gehrig stat:

• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig played in 1695 games.
• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig had 1690 RBIs.

The math for that says he drove in .998 runs per game which is close enough to 1 RBI per game to generate this sort of mental musing:

• What sort of contract might a current player get if he had driven in 162 runs in 162 games over even a 3- or 4-year span?
• The last player to exceed 162 RBIs in a single season was in 1999 when Manny Ramirez drove in 165 runs.
• Over the last 10 years, the highest total for RBIs for a season in MLB was last year by Matt Olsen; he drove in 139 runs.
• The MLB record for most RBIs in a single season is held by Hack Wilson (Cubs) in 1930; Wilson drove in 191 runs that year.

Moving on …  The landscape for Spring Football in the US has changed.  The USFL and the XFL have figured out a way to merge into a single entity that will be called the UFL – – the United Football League.  Both the USFL and the XFL competed with 8 teams last year; because of the merger, the number of franchises will be halved; the UFL will consist of 8 teams.  Play will commence in March 2024 if all goes according to plan.

The 8 teams in the UFL are going to be located in an interesting array.  There will be two conferences – – the USFL Conference and the XFL Conference presumably to acknowledge the roots of the UFL.  Let me first list the teams here to make an observation:

XFL Conference:

• Arlington Renegades – – Arlington, TX
• DC Defenders – – Washington, DC
• San Antonio Brahmas – – San Antonio, TX
• St. Louis Battlehawks – – St. Louis, MO

USFL Conference:

• Birmingham Stallions – – Birmingham, AL
• Houston Roughnecks – – Houston, TX
• Memphis Showboats – – Memphis, TN
• Michigan Panthers – – Detroit, MI

Half of the teams in the new UFL are going to play in areas where there is an existing NFL franchise.  The other half will be in “virgin territory” for pro football.  The thing that I find interesting is that of the ten largest TV markets in the US, the UFL will only have a franchise in three of them:

• #5 – – Dallas/Fort Worth
• #6 – – Houston
• #9 – – Washington DC

The reason I find this interesting is that FOX and ESPN both have some sort of ownership stake in the merged UFL and that would have led me to think that the new league would have a team in either NY or LA or Chicago just to “plant the flag” in one or more of the Top 3 TV markets in the country.  But such is not the case …

On the other hand, if the new league is willing to make a go of it outside the big metropolitan areas in many of the franchise locations, I wonder why the new league chose to compete with the Cowboys, Texans, Commanders and Lions with four of the new franchises.  If I were looking for a place to put a Spring football franchise that would compete for local attention with an NFL team, I would think of Chicago where the Bears are looking to get out of town leaving a functional facility in the “downtown area” that could be readily available.  But I am not a TV mogul from either FOX or ESPN …

I have no reason to wish for the UFL to fail; its existence will potentially provide grist for these rants.  Nevertheless, I would lose “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out that one way to look at this merger is as a 50% contraction as compared to the two previous Spring football entities.  Normally, when commercial enterprises contract, it is an indication that they cannot sustain themselves within the bounds of their current and projected revenues.  From that viewpoint, it becomes a bit more difficult to take seriously the words from Daryl Johnson who will serve as the head of football operations for the UFL:

“As we come together to create the UFL, we can build something powerful, exciting and very cool for football fans — a spring league with lasting impact for all the players with a dream to play pro football and the ‘hardest workers in the room’ mentality to make their dreams come true.”

Finally, Spring football in the US has been an aspiration for more than 40 years now; leagues have come and go; when they are in the “coming stage” there is an abundance of hope in the air. So let me close today with these words from Nietzsche:

“Hope in reality is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I realize that we have just begun to experience 2024, but I want to mention something that will happen early on in 2025 to start off today.  The NBA’s TV rights deals expire in 2025 and there will need to be new ones negotiated starting in the first six months of 2024.  Do not be surprised by the narrative that will be created surrounding those negotiations; it will contain these sorts of elements:

• The NBA is a rapidly growing enterprise.
• The NBA attracts a young and vibrant audience.
• The NBA has a huge following in the huge marketplace known as China.
• The NBA has bold/creative leadership experimenting with new concepts such as the In-Season Tournament.

You get the idea …  The so-called “NBA Insiders” will push that sort of narrative hard in the self-interest of the “insiders”.  Whatever actual access those folks have will be maintained and perhaps enhanced if they establish that narrative which will be useful to the league at the negotiating table.  I do not say this to “blame” the “insiders”; I say this because it is a natural occurrence; the NBA and the networks will try to do what is “best for business” from their perspective; the “insiders” will do exactly the same thing.

I mention all this because you should keep in mind some traces of reality as you are bombarded by elements of the upcoming narrative.

• The NBA has dominated Christmas Day from a sports perspective since the year the NBA was founded in 1949.
• The NBA has played at least two – – and as many as eight – – games on Christmas Day every year since then save for 1998 when the league locked out the players until mid-January 1999.
• The NBA has presented a nationally televised Christmas game or games since 1967.

The NBA has “owned Christmas Day” from a sports perspective for decades.  Nonetheless, for Christmas 2023, there was a head-to-head matchup for TV eyeballs between the NBA and the NFL.  Keep all those elements of the narrative outlined above in mind as you read the data from Christmas 2023:

• Largest audience for any of the NBA’s 5 games = 5 million (Lakers/Celtics)
• Average peak audience for the 5 NBA games = 2.82 million

Now compare those numbers with the audiences for the 3 NFL games on Christmas Day 2023:

• Largest NFL audience = 29.2 million (Chiefs/Raiders)
• Average peak audience for the 3 NFL games = 28.5 million

I will keep an eye out for any reporting that adds that comparative element to its portrayal of “the narrative”.  However, I do not expect to find it on prominent display.

There is potentially an interesting element to the overall picture for these TV rights negotiations.  I have read a couple of reports saying that Amazon would like to do a deal with the NBA to create an analog to Amazon’s Thursday Night Football programming with the NFL.  The idea would be for Amazon to have a package deal with the NBA to put on Tuesday Night Basketball using Prime Video as the distribution method.  Amazon and the NFL have worked together to grow the audience for Thursday Night Football to the point where Amazon draws more than 12 million viewers for many Thursday night games.  That audience is not nearly what Sunday audiences are for NFL games, but they are more than double the audiences for the biggest NBA Christmas games.

Amazon pays the NFL $1B annually for its Thursday Night package.  A similar package with the NBA would provide lots more games – – NBA teams play 82 regular season games over about 23 weeks as opposed to NFL teams which play only 17 regular season games over 18 weeks.  Can Amazon grow a “Tuesday Night clientele” similar to the one it has developed for the NFL?  Now that would be interesting to watch …

Switching gears …  Could it be that the NFL needs at least one of its owners to be a horse’s ass?  Think about it:

• Al Davis and the Raiders sued the league itself – – and won the case.
• Leonard Tose had to sell the team to pay off gambling debts.
• Eddie DeBartolo had to sell the team having been caught up in a bribery scam.
• Danny Boy Snyder – – well pick your own favorite outrageous behavior moment.

So, with Snyder off the see the world on his super-yacht, the league might be in need of an owner to step up and be the negative face of the league.

• Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for Panthers’ owner, David Tepper who in frustration last weekend threw a drink at a fan of the opposing Jaguars as his Panthers lost that game 26-0.

For that kerfuffle, the NFL fined Tepper $300K which is to say the NFL did nothing.  Consider:

• Tepper’s net worth estimated at $20.6B
• NFL fine is 0.000015% of his estimated net worth.

If you had $100K in your bank account and you incurred a “fine” that had the same impact on your holdings as the NFL levied here, you would owe a total of $1.45.  That would teach you, right?

• Memo to David Tepper:  Taking over Danny Boy Snyder’s mantle as the NFL’s resident horse’s ass owner is not a good strategy.

Finally, let me close my first rant of 2024 with this pronouncement by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Men are the only animals that devote themselves day in and day out, to making one another unhappy.  It is an art like any other.  Its virtuosi are called altruists.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am not someone who has ever been involved in the advertising enterprise; I claim no insight into the fundamental principles of that field of endeavor.  Like everyone else, I am a consumer of advertising – – whether I like it or not – – because it is everywhere.  Moreover, I have a basic acceptance of advertising as an activity that brings me good because it is the presence of advertising that allows me to enjoy all my sports programming on television.  So, count me as an “accepting novice” when it comes to evaluation of advertising.  I watch and listen to ads on sports/news shows and just react to what they are telling me.

Once a year, I compile my notes and make a list of ads that did not seem to motivate me in any particular way to use or consume the product being pushed.  I call those “Bad Ads”.  Probably the creators of those ads would argue that the fact that I made a note of them and then put them here on my list shows that they were not really “Bad Ads”.  Whatever …  This is my rant and so I will label them as “Bad Ads”.

First up this year is an ad campaign for a drug that alleviates hot flashes in post-menopausal women.  The ad cleverly claims to turn “hot flashes” into “not flashes”; the drug certainly addresses a problem area for many women.  However, every drug ad on TV has a portion of the ad that starts with:

• “Do not take XXX if you are allergic to it or if you have had YYY or if something else exists…”

After that peroration, the voiceover will begin to list possible side effects which can range from “soreness at the injection site” to “death”.  In the case of the ad for alleviation of hot flashes, one of the possible side effects noted is … drumroll please …  “Hot Flashes”.

Excuse me.  If the drug is supposed to alleviate hot flashes, then a hot flash is not a side effect; in that situation a hot flash is an indicator that the drug is not working.

Another drug ad that had a silly portion was for Rinvoq – – an eczema treatment.  The ad claims:

• “Some patients saw up to 100% clear skin”. 

No!   EVERY patient saw – – and will aways see – – “up to 100% clear skin.”  And no one will ever see 101% clear skin.  Got that …?

And in the realm of healthcare ads, let me lump together every single one of the ads for Medicare Advantage plans into a single category and denounce them all.  One of them has Joe Namath as its spokesperson.  Why would you want to take medical advice, financial advice or insurance advice from him?

Ads for the GMC Sierra truck should remind you always to read the fine print.  There is an ad for the Sierra where they are bragging about their “hands free driving” capability.  I’m sure you have seen it; the driver and the passengers all begin to clap their hands as the background music plays “We will, we will rock you…”

Check the fine print on that ad and you will see that they claim that the vehicle you are seeing is a “pre-production model”.  No problem there – – until you recall that GMC has been showing the same ad for about 3 years now. So:

• When might the vehicle shown in the ad actually be produced? 

Oh, but there is more reason to read the GMC Sierra fine print than that minor point.  The ad shows the truck hauling a load with the hand-clappers inside as it autonomously passes a slower vehicle on the totally vacant highway.  Once again, no problem until you read the fine print to learn that lane changing – – essential to passing a slower vehicle – – will not be available when towing something with the truck.  So, we have a model that does not exist yet being advertised with a feature that will not be available whenever it does exist.  Isn’t that swell?

GMC Sierra is consistent if nothing else in its ads.  Another ad shows the vehicle mastering plenty of difficult terrain.  If you are into off-roading, this is probably impressive – – until you read the fine print.  There, you will learn that the vehicle you are seeing on your screen is another pre-production model and that some “features” may not be available on production models.  Sign me up for a test drive if/when one of these things ever enters the real world…

Buick Envision is another brand that runs old ads.  One of those old ads ran again in 2023 during March Madness; it has fine print at the bottom saying that it shows features that may or may not be available on 2021 models.  Guess what, If I am looking to buy a NEW Buick Envision, I doubt I could find a 2021 model with or without those unspecified features.

Mercedes Benz advertises their “Certified Pre-Owned” cars that are meticulously examined before you are even allowed to see them let alone buy them.  Excuse me, but I don’t need Mercedes Benz to certify or assure me in any way that someone has owned or leased the car before me; the odometer will certify that to me perfectly adequately.

Here’s a thing about lots of car company ads.  They tell us that they will give a certain interest rate or a certain set of lease terms to “well qualified buyers”.  OK, that’s great; now I know what Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos can get as terms from your company if they choose only to buy a car and not to pay cash and buy the whole damned company.  Can you please:

1. Define “well qualified buyer”.  What percentage of people who walk into a showroom turn out to be “well qualified”?
2. Give out the terms for a “moderately qualified buyer” and maybe even for a “bottom-of-the-barrel buyer”.

Little Caesars is the “Official Pizza of the NFL” this year; they obviously out-pizzaed the Hut to earn that designation.  Little Caesars makes miserable pizza AND it also assaults game viewers with stupid ads too.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  That is quite the exacta there…

Jack Links beef jerky shows some guys in a lavatory.  One guy is eating beef jerky in there which is nauseating at best.  Then “Sasquatch” comes into the restroom and starts peeing like a firehose until he knocks a urinal off the wall with the force of his elimination.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  I am never going to buy a Jack Links product – – ever.

Amazon has an ad where a guy decides to get some “early Holiday shopping” done.  He receives a box with the Amazon.com logo on it which contains some unidentifiable object in it.  Then he goes and jumps off a dock into waters with ice floes still floating in the water.  That’s it; that’s the ad.  And that is supposed to get me to go to Amazon.com and order something early for my Holiday shopping?  I don’t think so.

I know this ad has been on the list before, but they keep running the same one year after year.  I refer here to the “Kars-4-Kids” ad where a “rock group” of untalented kids sing the same annoying jingle that has been around since forever.  It is probably only a rumor, but some folks think that Julius Caesar was stabbed to death because he would not stop singing that outrageous tune.  The “music” in this ad is so bad I am compelled to issue the following warning:

• Warning:  Wherever those “musicians” are performing this song or any other song, that area will be designated as an “International Talent-Free Zone.”

Who thought the idea of a buffalo that grew wings and speaks English was an interesting character to introduce in ads for Buffalo Wild Wings – – Get it???.  Let me be clear; Buffalo Wild Wings is a horrendous place to go and try to watch an important sporting event; it is needlessly loud and often offensive.  It would take some brilliant advertising campaign to get me to go there for a game.  These ads assure I will not go there to watch any sporting event of any kind.

Lume Deodorant cream aired an ad where a woman describes in complete detail her problem areas as:

• “… pits, underboob, sideboob, thigh folds, butt crack…”
• Memo to Ad Execs:  I just wish she would go and take a shower.

Burger King had an ad for various sorts of combo meals; you pick the kind of sandwich you want as the “main course”.  There is nothing unusual here; no big deal.  Except, these were all “bacon combos” and one of the choices was an “Impossible Burger” – – with bacon.  Really …???

Also in the “fast food category” is the Taco Bell ad where they set up a counter and a kitchen in Davante Adams’ house so he could always have immediate access to Taco Bell.  That is beyond stupid…

Old Spice ran an ad that has a guy in a bathrobe going to a “club” to address some women at a table.  He wants to know if one of the women there has used his Old Spice Body Wash.  She says of course she did because she would not let hotel soap touch her precious skin.

• Memo to Precious Skin Lady:  If you are that worried about hotel soap, pack whatever you need and bring it from home.  It’s not difficult.

The insurance companies never fail to make this annual compendium.  I guess the reason is that the product being sold by the various companies is basically the same from vendor to vendor and it would not be particularly attention-grabbing to have someone drone on about coverages and deductibles and exclusions and …  So, someone in the ad world decided many years ago to create “humorous ads” for insurance products.  At first, there were some clever ones like the gecko and the cavemen and “What are you wearing, Jake from State Farm?”  Uhh… Khakis…”  Those days seem to be nothing but fond memories as we look at today’s insurance ad creations.

Progressive Insurance a while back created a cast of characters for their ads, and I guess the underlying thinking for that cast of characters was for each one to be more annoying than the ones preceding it.  This year, Progressive introduced a new character, “TV Dad”.  Not only did he live down to the standard of being more annoying than any of the other Progressive characters, but he is also even more annoying than “LIMU the Emu – – and Doug”.  Now that was a difficult limbo bar to get under – – but Progressive did.

Speaking of LIMU the Emu and Doug, they introduced a kid to their ads this year.  Basically, he is a mini-version of Doug with a moustache and a tiny toy auto that he drives.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  As the kid rides off in his toy car, Doug tells him to “Stay off the freeway.”  I often tell the kid at that point to “Go play in traffic!”

The “Bad Ads” listing would not be complete without an entry from the beer makers.  This year, Bud Light put together an ad where Peyton Manning goes to a bar and orders a round of Bud Lights for the bar.  Celebratory shouting ensues as Manning tosses beers to other patrons and then out of nowhere he is joined by Emmitt Smith as simultaneous tossers of beer cans to the masses.  Can you imagine the clean-up mess in that bar as about 50 people open cans of Bud Light that have been thrown to them that they caught – – presumably on the fly?  That establishment will smell of stale beer for a month after that event.

The ads for JG Wentworth – – call 877-CashNow – – are anything but entertaining or attractive, but they make this list because they advertise a service that can actually be harmful to folks who use it.  JG Wentworth will buy out a person’s annuity; and in many cases, people purchased an annuity or had one purchased for them as a means to provide cash in retirement.  Selling one out to JG Wentworth to satisfy some real-time craving can come back to haunt the seller in his/her golden years.  I cringe at those ads.

“Bad Ads” is traditionally the final rant of the year out of Curmudgeon Central.  Having reflected on the Bad Ads for 2023, it is comforting to know that as the calendar turns to 2024, the advertising world will continue to provide materials for another year-ending event 12 months from now.  I won’t need to wait until Spring for any sort of “renewal”.  In mid-February there will be a huge number of Super Bowl ads and surely somewhere in that compendium will be the start of next year’s list.  And since 2024 will be an “Election Year”, I know that I and everyone else will be inundated with political ads next year.  Just a thing to remember here:

• Any objective truth represented in a political ad is there by accident at best.

Based on the contents of this and previous “Bad Ads” rants, I hope that these words from novelist Norman Douglas are not accurate:

“You can tell the ideals of a nation by its advertisements.”

Happy New Year, everyone.  Stay safe and stay well in 2024.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

William Shakespeare wrote:

“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.”

That directive applies today because even though the calendar declares today as a Thursday, this will be an early edition of Football Friday.  Had this edition not shown up early, it would have been a week late.  So, I’ll just call this a Sort of Football Friday and begin in the normal way by reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College = 0-0-0   =>  Season = 19-9-0
• NFL = 1-2-0   =>   Season = 19-21-0
• Parlays = 1-1  Profit = $42   =>  Season = 9-14  Loss = $88

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Florida State/ACC showdown is coming.  The Seminoles have filed a lawsuit against their own conference seeking to extricate themselves from that conference.  There is no question that Florida State is the “big dog” in the ACC when it comes to football, only Clemson’s stature rivals Florida State’s.  And now the “big dog” wants out…

If somehow there is no reconciliation here, this matter looks to me as if it will play out over a LONG period of time.  Florida State filed its suit less than a week ago and already there is an ACC action seeking to have the conference select the venue of the trial proceedings.  There are probably law firms from Virginia to Florida salivating over the idea of getting a piece of the available billable hours here.

The legal costs to both sides would seem to provide a reason for settlement here.  Spending on legal representation is a “sunk cost”; there is little likelihood of ever recovering those funds.  Settlement/reconciliation would be a “hefty cost”, but it can also be money spent in order for the two sides to “get on with their lives”.

The Seminoles want out; the ACC fears that losing its best football program will do severe damage to the conference itself.  And yet, there must be some point at which Florida State becomes a sufficiently annoying thorn under the thumbnail that the conference begins to view the matter as a sufficient pain in the ass that it wants to end the conflict.  The ACC “grant of rights” that seemingly binds the conference together runs through 2036.  I cannot believe that Florida State will be a member of the ACC that far into the future.  As I said earlier this week, I don’t know where they will wind up, and I don’t know when it will happen, but this is not a relationship that can be saved.

One of the minor bowl games – – the Las Vegas Bowl – – produced a result that could lead to some interesting college football news.  Northwestern beat Utah 14-7 in that game meaning that Northwestern finished the season 8-5.  That may not sound like much but recall that at the beginning of August, Northwestern fired its long-term head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, over a hazing scandal.  The school needed a head coach, and it would have been unseemly to name one of the assistants as the head coach if the assistant had been on the football staff while the alleged hazing was going on.  So, Northwestern handed what looked like a sack of wet goat sh*t to “the new guy” – David Braun – who had just taken a job at Northwestern having come from the job of defensive coordinator at Division 1-AA North Dakota St.

To say that Northwestern qualifying for a bowl bid – let alone beating a decent Utah team in a bowl game – was not a prevalent thought in suburban Chicago back in August.  But that is what happened, and David Braun now has some thinking to do.  He is probably going to lose more than a couple of his assistants when the euphoria of the season wears off and the memories of the hazing allegations return to the headlines.  What David Braun needs to think about is simple:

• Should he stay at Northwestern – where he will surely get a decent offer as their head football coach – or should he use this performance as a way to get another job in a place where there ought to be fewer off-field distractions and much less acrimony surrounding the program?

Were I in his position, I would thank the Northwestern Board of Trustees for the confidence they have shown in me but I would choose to move on to calmer waters that may also be greener pastures.  But that’s just me…

 

College Football Games This Week:

 

The better bowl games tend to cluster around New Year’s Day and this year is no exception.  The reason I do not make selections for most bowl games is because there are far too many intangible factors to weigh not the least of which is that lots of the best players on various teams over the course of the season will voluntarily sit out a minor bowl game looking to avoid injury prior to the NFL Draft in April.  There are some matchups that might be interesting in terms of viewing this week and of course there will be the semi-finals of the CFP on Monday night.

(Fri Afternoon) Notre Dame – 6.5 vs. Oregon St (41.5):  There has been a lot of line movement for this game.  The spread opened with Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite and the Total Line opened at 47.5 points.  Both teams finished the year in the Top 20 in whatever poll you favor.  Neither team will have their starting quarterback nor their #1 running back for the game.  Clearly, that is sufficient reason not to make a pick here, but this is a game worth watching even if it is the “Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl”.

(Fri Nite) Missouri vs Ohio St. – 3 (49):  The Buckeyes’ starting QB this year, Kyle McCord, entered the transfer portal when the season closed and so Ohio St will be under the direction of sophomore, Devin Brown for the game.  Brown appeared in 5 games – briefly – in 2023 and posted these stats:

• 12 of 22 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

The best storyline for the game is probably Mizzou RB, Cody Schrager who started his career at Missouri as a walk-on and this year was named to the All SEC Team as the running back.

(Sat Noon) Ole Miss vs Penn St. – 5 (48):  Both teams come to the game with 10-2 records; that alone makes the game interesting.  However, there is an even more interesting aspect to this game.  Land Kiffin has Ole Miss playing a fast and loose offensive system that wins games by outscoring opponents.  The Rebels rank 15^th in the country in Total Offense per game (455.4 yards per game) and 19^th in the country in Scoring Offense (34.8 points per game).  Penn St. relies on its defense; the Nittany Lions rank 1^st in the nation in Total Defense allowing only 223.3 yards per game and rank 3^rd in the nation in Scoring Defense allowing only 11.4 points per game.

(Mon Afternoon) Liberty vs Oregon – 17 (67):  Last year, Tulane was the so-called Group of Five team to get a New Year’s Day bowl bid and Tulane went and won the game.  Can Liberty maintain that “tradition”?

(Mon Evening) Alabama vs Michigan – 2.5 (44.5):  After two years of embarrassing losses in the CFP, Michigan has the motivation, the depth, the talent and the experience to win it all this year.  Alabama almost always over the past 15 years has had all that stuff and has indeed “won it all” in the past.  Michigan has played with a lead for almost the entirety of the 2023 season so it might be interesting to see what the Wolverines might do should Alabama get a lead in the game.

(Mon Nite) Texas – 4.5 vs Washington (64.5):  I think Texas is the better team here because I think the Washington pass defense is vulnerable.  The Huskies rank 123^rd in the country in passing defense, allowing 263.2 yards per game.  Conversely, Washington leads the nation in passing offense (343.8 yards per game), but the Texas pass defense is a bit stingier allowing 241 yards per game.  I like Washington QB, Michael Penix, Jr. to keep this game close to the end; I’ll take Washington plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I ran across an interesting stat this week.  The New England Patriots are poised to set an NFL record this year.  So far in 2023, the Pats have not had a 100-yard rusher in a game, nor have they had a 100-yard receiver in a game.  No team has ever completed a 16-game or a 17-game season without at least one such performance:

• The Colts had that happen to them in 1982 – – but that was a “strike season” and consisted of only 9 games.
• The ‘Skins had that happen to them in 1977 – – but was back in the days when the NFL regular season was only 14 games.

The Patriots have now played 15 games in the 2023 regular season without a 100-yard performance by a runner or a pass catcher.  What Snuffy Smith was wont to say in the comic strips applies now to the Pats:

• “Time’s a-wasting…”

Last week, I watched the Steelers/Bengals game and heard Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge do that game.  Since there were no other games on at the time and since I had no social distractions, I watched the whole thing without “interference”.  That was the first time I heard that tandem on the mic and I liked what I heard.

• Noah Eagle is the son of Ian Eagle.  I have always liked Ian Eagle doing play-by-play in football and/or in basketball.  The adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree certainly applies here; Noah Eagle is going to be a very good play-by-play guy for many years to come; he is only 26 years old.
• I have heard Todd Blackledge in the past – – but not recently as I recall.  He has never managed to find his way to the head of the class as a color analyst either at CBS or at ESPN.  That is a shame because he presents the game to viewers calmly and rationally without histrionics or needless chatter.
• Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge make for an excellent broadcast pairing.

Let me pose a rhetorical question here.  Which “old fossil” – – in NFL terms that means anyone who has been around the league for about 10 years – – is playing better:

1. Mike Evans:  In his 10^th year in the NFL, he has started every game with the Bucs and caught 73 passes for 1163 yards and a league-leading 13 TDs.
2. Joe Flacco:  He was called back into the league off his man-cave couch after Thanksgiving for a 16^th season in the NFL when the Browns desperately needed a QB.  He has started 4 games; the Browns are 3-1 in those games.  Flacco has averaged 326.8 yards per game passing with 10 TDs and 7 INTs.

You make the call …

Let me move on to a review of last week’s games:

Rams 30  Saints 22:  The Saints made a game of it in the fourth quarter scoring 15 of their 22 points then, but the Rams dominated the game.  The Saints’ running game was a no-show; 35 yards on 16 carries.  Also, the Saints went for it 3 times on fourth down and failed to convert any of those attempts.  The Rams’ total offense in the game was 458 yards.  Rams are now well positioned for a playoff run with an interesting schedule in the next two weeks:

• At Giants – – Rams should be a touchdown favorite here
• At Niners – – will the Niners have anything to play for?

Steelers 34  Bengals 11:  The Steelers’ offense seemed to regain consciousness here gaining 397 yards in the game.  Mason Rudolph threw for 290 yards and 2 TDs.  Jake Browning accumulated yardage but also threw 3 INTs.  George Pickens had a huge day catching 4 passes for 195 yards and 2 TDs.  The result of this game is that both teams now have their playoff hopes on life support.  Neither is mathematically eliminated; neither is anywhere near likely to get in.

Raiders 20  Chiefs 14:  This game has one of the oddest stat sheets ever.  The Raiders won the game despite having only 48 yards passing in the game and being outgained by more than 100 yards in the game and not scoring an offensive TD in the game.  The Raiders did not even attempt a pass in the second half of the game.  The Chiefs had the ball for more than 34 minutes.  The turning point was a span of 7 seconds late in the second quarter.  First, the Chiefs bungled a direct snap from center to running back Isaiah Pacheco which resulted in a Scoop and Score TD for the Raiders.  On the first offensive play after the kickoff, Patrick Mahomes threw a Pick Six.  The Raiders’ defense was able to parlay those scores into a victory.  The Raiders could win the AFC West if they win out and the Chiefs lose out.

Bills 24  Chargers 22:  Recall that I said the Chargers could experience the football version of Wall Street’s “dead cat bounce”.  The Chargers dominated time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-0.  Still, that was not enough for a win.  The Bills will make the playoffs if they win out; here is the remaining schedule for the Bills:

• Vs. Pats – – should be a solid favorite here
• At Dolphins – – Maybe the winner is NFC East champion as well as a playoff participant?

Eagles 33  Giants 25:  The Eagles outgained the Giants 465 yards to 292 yards; that difference usually produces an outcome that is more lopsided than a “one-score game”.  Let me give you a flavor of the imbalance on the stat sheet:

• Eagles’ Time of Possession = 34:38   Giants’ Time of Possession = 25:22
• Eagles’ First Downs = 28   Giants’ First Downs = 14
• Eagles’ Offensive plays = 74   Giants Offensive plays = 59

The Eagles led 20-3 at halftime but a Giant’s TD in the third quarter followed by a Pick Six thrown by Jalen Hurts closed the gap to 20-18.  The fourth quarter was a nail-biter despite the statistical imbalance.  The 2023 Eagles are the masters of “winning ugly”.  As of this morning their record is 11-4 but their point differential for the season is only +26.  This win coupled with the Cowboys’ loss to the Dolphins puts the Eagles in first place in the NFC East.

Ravens 33  Niners 19:  The Ravens dominated this game on offense and on defense despite the stat sheet saying that the Niners outgained the Ravens by 87 yards.  Lamar Jackson accounted for 297 yards from scrimmage (passing + running) and 2 TDs.  The Ravens’ defense intercepted 5 passes in the game.

Browns 36  Texans 22:  The Browns and the Cowboys have the same record; there is lots of talk about the Cowboys being a Super Bowl participant; there is little to no talk about the Browns being part of that game.  Amari Cooper was the dominant player in this game:

• 11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs

The Browns led 36-7 with 12 minutes left in the game.  The Texans got two meaningless TDs to make the game appear closer than it was.  The Texans remain tied with the Jags and the Colts in the AFC South race despite this loss because the Jags and Colts both lost last weekend too.

Lions 30  Vikes 24:  The Lions have won the NFC North for the first time since 1993.  The Vikes were driving for a potential game-winning TD in the final minute of the game, but the Lions’ defense intercepted a Nick Mullens pass at the Lions’ 5 yardline to seal the deal for the Lions.  That was Mullens’ 4^th INT for the day.  Mullens did throw for 411 yards in the game which is what kept the game close because the Vikes’ total rushing offense for the day was 17 yards on only 11 rushing attempts.

Packers 33  Panthers 30:  This game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard.  The Packers had the ball late in the 4^th quarter and were able to get into field goal range and converted that play to provide the margin of victory with 19 seconds left on the clock.  The Packers can still make the playoffs in the NFC with this win.

Falcons 29  Colts 10:  Taylor Heinicke got the start at QB for the Falcons and produced 406 yards on offense.  Gardner Minshew had one of his “lesser performances” leading the Colts to only 262 yards on offense.  The Falcons are only one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South as of this morning.

Seahawks 20  Titans 17:  Here is a taste of how even this game was:

• Seahawks’ First Downs = 21   Titans’ First Downs = 23
• Seahawks’ 3^rd down conversions = 7 of 13   Titans’ 3^rd down conversions = 6 of 12
• Seahawks Total Offense = 273 yards   Titans’ Total Offense = 287 yards
• Seahawks’ Avg Gain per play = 4.6 yards   Titans’ Avg Gain per play = 4.5 yards

The Titans took a 17-13 lead with 3 minutes to play in the game, but the Seahawks were able to get the game winning TD from Geno Smith with a minute left to play.

Jets 30  Commanders 28:  It was Jacoby Brisset to the rescue for the Commanders again this week.  The Commanders trailed 27-7 at halftime; Brisset entered the game midway in the 3^rd quarter and led the team to three TDs to take the lead at 28-27 with about 5 minutes to play.  The Jets were able to maneuver themselves into field goal range to kick a game-winning 54-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.  The Jets had the ball for more than 36 minutes in the game and outgained the Commanders by 136 yards and still needed last second heroics to win this game.  Wow …!

Bucs 30  Jags 12:  Don’t look now but the Bucs have won 4 games in a row and the Jags have lost 4 games in a row.  If you saw that coming sometime before Thanksgiving, raise your hand.  If the season ended today, both teams would be playoff-bound.  The Bucs led this game 30-0 in the third quarter; the game was a rout.

Bears 27  Cards 16:  The Bears dominated the game leading 21-0 in the second quarter and 24-10 in the 4^th quarter.  The Bears accumulated 420 yards on offense; Justin Fields threw for 170 yards and ran for another 97 yards in the game.  The Bears’ record this morning is 6-9 and they are not yet mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoffs, but I have not been able to figure out what their road to a playoff slot would look like.  Interestingly, with that 6-9 record, the Bears’ point differential for the season is only minus-31 points.  As a reference, the Jets are also 6-9 this year and the Jets point differential is minus-84 points.

Dolphins 22  Cowboys 20:  The Dolphins scored 1 TD in this game and kicked 5 field goals – – the last one as time expired – – for a narrow win at home.  The Cowboys’ road woes continued here; they are 7-0 at home and only 3-5 on the road.  The Dolphins’ win keeps them atop the NFC East for this week.  However, if the Dolphins were to lose this weekend on the road against the Ravens and if the Bills win this weekend over the Pats in Buffalo, that will set up the Bills and Dolphins in Week 18 where the winner is the AFC East champion, and the loser is a wildcard team.  Should it come down to this, that Week 18 matchup will be in Miami where the Dolphins are 7-1 this year.

Pats 26  Broncos 23:  The Pats led 23-7 to start the 4^th quarter but the Broncos rallied to tie the game 23-23 with about 3 minutes left to play in the game.  The Pats managed to get to a point where they had a 56-yard field goal try to win the game with 7 seconds left in the game.  That kick was good, and the Pats won only their 4^th game of the year.  The Broncos are not eliminated from the AFC playoffs as a result of this loss, but their road to the playoffs is a winding and treacherous one to be sure.

 

NFL Games this Week:

 

Four NFC teams have guaranteed themselves a slot in the playoffs.  The Eagles and Cowboys will both participate but it is not yet determined which will be the NFC East champion and which will be a wildcard team.  As of this morning, the Eagles hold a 1-game lead over the Cowboys.  The Lions and the Niners are both in the playoffs as winners of their respective divisions.

Only two of the AFC playoff positions are filled as of now.  The Ravens are in even though they have not clinched the AFC North title and the Dolphins are also in under the same circumstances.

An announcement came yesterday that the Broncos would bench Russell Wilson for the last two games of the season and will start Jarrett Stidham in those games.  The justification for this is to “preserve their financial flexibility in the coming offseason.”  Remember, the Broncos are not eliminated from this year’s playoffs.  Here is the explanation from a report at NFL.com:

“One key reason behind the switch is financial … Wilson has a $37 million injury guarantee for 2025 that becomes fully guaranteed in March. Sitting the QB the final two weeks to ensure he doesn’t suffer a catastrophic injury provides the Broncos financial flexibility if Sean Payton and Co. decide to move on from the 35-year-old quarterback in 2024. It’s not a done deal, but the late-season benching is a strong indicator Denver will end the Wilson ride after two seasons.

“Wilson is due $39 million fully guaranteed in 2024.”

There is no Monday Night Football this week; the NFL games are on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

(Thurs Nite) Jets at Browns – 7.5 (34.5):  I guess the Jets will stick with Trevor Siemian as their QB this week after the Jets scored 30 points last week.  Problem is simple:

• Last week, the Jets played the Commanders with the worst defense in the NFL this year.
• This week the Jets play the Browns whose defense is among the best in the NFL this year.

There is no question who the QB for the Browns will be here; that would be Joe Flacco.  I suspect that he will find it difficult to torch the Jets’ defense the way he has some of the Browns’ recent opponents, but the Browns will win the game and secure a playoff spot in the process.

(Sat Nite) Lions at Cowboys – 6 (54): This is the Game of the Week matching two teams who will be in the NFC playoffs and who bring a combined record of 21-9 to the kickoff.   In terms of the intangibles, this game should go to the Cowboys.  The Lions clinched their division for the first time in 30 years last week; a small letdown is to be expected notwithstanding the fire in Coach Dan Campbell’s belly.  The game is in Dallas where the Cowboys are undefeated in 2023.  The Cowboys need this win if they still harbor hope for an NFC East title and/or an overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs.  Now for the football part of the equation, the Lions’ pass defense is a weak spot.  Last week, Nick Mullens threw for 400+ yards against the Lions (see above); I don’t see the Lions holding Dak Prescott and company to a meager offensive showing.  The Total Line here is a bit higher than I would expect but I will avoid an UNDER selection here; however, I do like the Cowboys to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Ravens – 3.5 (47):  I thought about this game as the Game of the Week.  This could be a letdown game for the Ravens after they dismantled the Niners last week.  This game could be difficult for the Dolphins in that it is the second game of a very tough 3-game sequence in their schedule – – Cowboys last week, Ravens this week, Bills next week.  There is also a “weather trend” at work here.

• Since 2017, the Dolphins are 1-17 in games where the temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees or below.
• The weather forecast has the high temperature on Sunday in Baltimore at 45 degrees.

Pats at Bills – 12 (40.5):  The Bills need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive; the Pats are playing out the string.  I do not like the fact that the Bills needed to rally to beat a bad Chargers team last week, but they should have their act together at home here and win the game.  But there is no way I would play this at a double-digit spread.

Falcons at Bears – 3 (38):  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  CBS Sports gives the Falcons a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs; CBS Sports gives the Bears a “less than 1.0% chance of making the playoffs.  That is enough for me.

Titans at Texans – 4.5 (43):  The Texans beat the Titans a couple of weeks ago in a close game.  Will CJ Stoud be able to play and if so, will he be able to play to the level he established earlier this year?  Will Levis may or may not be back for the Titans; that is another issue to consider.  The Texans need a win a lot more than do the Titans who are mathematically eliminated from the AFC playoffs.

Raiders at Colts – 3.5 (44):  The Raiders (7-8) need this win to keep their longshot odds to make the playoffs alive.  Similarly, the Colts (8-8) need to win to assure themselves a shot at the division title next week.  The Raiders’ defense dominated the Chiefs last week (see above); was that performance based on emotion or has the defense figured out how to play better?  At the same time, the Raiders’ OL stepped up significantly in that game.  The OL has been a weak point all season long.  This is the second straight road game for the Raiders, but I am counting on that defensive front to make life miserable for Gardner Minshew here; I’ll take the Raiders plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Jags – 6.5 (38):  Trevor Lawrence hurt his shoulder last week – – adding to his concussion and ankle injuries.  For insurance, the Jags signed Matt Barkley in case Lawrence cannot go and CJ Beathard gets hurt.  Color me unimpressed with that roster move.  The Jags need to break a 4-game losing streak; for a team with such a need, the best scheduling twist available is to draw the Panthers…

Rams – 4.5 at Giants (43.5):  The Rams are playing very well and have a playoff slot in their crosshairs.  The Giants’ defense has come around, but the Giants’ offense is a hot mess at best.  It is a long trip and a body-clock game for the Rams; that is why I am not making a selection here.

Cards at Eagles – 11 (48):  I toyed with this as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Eagles are in the playoffs no matter what; the Cards have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now.  Last week, I said the Eagles should not be 13.5-point favorites over a USFL team; they have the talent to beat the Cards by several TDs, but they have had that sort of a talent advantage in several games earlier this year and not delivered.  Cards’ coach, Jonathan Gannon, returns to the Linc to play his team from last year.  I am tempted to take the OVER here – – but will not.

Saints at Bucs – 2.5 (42.5):  Baker Mayfield’s contract is one-year and $4M.  He has earned that money several times over already.  His contract calls for a $1M bonus if the Bucs win their division – – and beating the Saints here will assure the Bucs that title.  Motivation anyone …?

Niners – 13.5 at Commandeers (48):  Kyle Shanahan spent some less-than-fully-pleasant time at FedEx Field as the offensive coordinator of the ‘Skins.  Chase Young was on the Commanders’ roster until he was traded away at the end of October.  They will both be motivated to do well on Sunday.  The Commanders stink; they may or may not be better than the Panthers at this point of the season. Even if they start Jacoby Brisset to experience his magic for the entire game, I don’t think it will matter.  I think there will be scoring in the game so give me the OVER here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Seahawks – 3.5 (42):  I really think that the key question for this game is:

• Can Mason Rudolph play the way he did last week again this week?

If he does, the Steelers will win the game outright.  If not, the Steelers will lose, be out of the playoffs, and will face pressure to win their final game next week to avoid the first Steelers’ losing season since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.

Bengals at Chiefs – 7 (44):  Last week when the Eagles were 13.5-point favorites over the Giants, I said I would not make the Eagles that big a favorite over a USFL team.  Well, the Chiefs inspire about that same level of confidence this week.  The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 6 games and instead of improving as the season progressed, the Chiefs’ performances have stagnated.  The Bengals are not nearly the powerhouse many folks expected this year, but the Bengals are not coming apart at the seams.  Back in August, this looked like a sure-fire contender for Game of the Week.  Hah!

Chargers at Broncos – 3 (37.5):  The spread opened at 6 points and was steady there until yesterday’s announcement about the benching of Russell Wilson for the rest of the season.  So, the QB matchup this week will be Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham.  If that inspires you to wager real money on this game, you probably need an intervention.

(Sun Nite) Packers at Vikes – 2 (46):  The loser of this game can make Caribbean cruise reservations for January.  The Vikes get lots of yardage with Nick Mullens at QB but seem to flame-out in the Red Zone.  They need to find a cure for that – – quickly.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Washington +4.5 against Texas
• Cowboys – 6 over Lions
• Raiders +3.5 against Colts
• Niners/Commanders OVER 48

            Here are two Money Line Parlays just to add to the fun:

• Bills @ minus-700
• Raiders @ +165         $100 wager to win $203.

And …

• Cowboys @ minus-260
• Eagles @ minus-500
• Niners @ minus-525             $100 wager to win $98.

Finally, some words of wisdom from former Tennessee coach, Bowden Wyatt:

“My advice to defensive players: Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in a bad humor.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As they say in France, if you are une personne d’un certain âge – someone of a certain age – you will recall ABC’s Wide World of Sports and the phrase:

“The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat…”

The NBA’s Detroit Pistons have known nothing but the agony of defeat since October 28, 2023; that is 60 days ago for those of you keeping score at home.  In that span, the Pistons have lost 27 consecutive basketball games setting a new single-season record for futility.  To put a bit of perspective on that “dry spell”, consider that the Texas Rangers had not yet won the World Series when the Pistons last won an NBA game.

The previous NBA record for single-season futility belonged jointly to the Sixers and the Cavs; as of this morning, the Pistons own that record outright.  Note that I have repeatedly referred to this current losing streak as the “single-season record”; that is because the record for most consecutive losses stands at 28 games and that one belongs to the Sixers across the boundaries of the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 seasons.  You should recall that was a time when the Sixers were in the throes of “The Process” where losing carried a cachet and not a stigma.

The Pistons can claim part ownership of that ultimate losing streak with a loss in their next game.  Here is a look at the Pistons’ schedule for the next two weeks:

• Dec 28:  AT Boston – – current record 23-6 (best record in the NBA)
• Dec 30:  VS Toronto – – current record 11-18 (would set the new record)
• Jan 1:  AT Houston – – current record 15-13
• Jan 3:  AT Utah – – current record 13-18
• Jan 5:  AT Golden State – – current record 15-15
• Jan 7:  AT Denver – – current record 22-10
• Jan 9:  VS Kings – – current record 17-12
• Jan 10:  VS Spurs – – current record 4-25

Things look bleak for the Pistons and their fans.  [Aside:  It would seem that Pistons’ fans have stood by the team in these dark days.  The Pistons have averaged 17,882 fans per game over 15 home games so far this season.]  If the Pistons do set a new record by losing at home to the Raptors, the fact that they would go on the road for their next 4 games is not a good sign at all.

It is too early to make full season projections, but consider this as a metric:

• Back in the 1970s when the Sixers set the full season mark for futility with a 9-73 record, that was a winning percentage of .110.
• Here in the 2023-203-24 season the Pistons have a winning percentage of .067.
• Moreover, the Spurs have a winning percentage of only .138.
• And the Wizards have a winning percentage of only .172.

When the Sixers set that mark back in the 70s, they had a new coach at the start of the season; he lasted 48 games; the team replaced him when the team record was 4-44.  The Pistons are not likely to replace their coach this year.  They just signed Coach Monty Williams to a 6-year contract with $78.5 M guaranteed; that would be huge buyout for the owners to swallow and that is far too much money for Williams to “leave on the table” by resigning.

Moving on …  This is the time of year when eligible voters for baseball’s Hall of Fame are preparing their ballots.  CBSSports.com had a piece recently that ran under this headline:

“Is Chase Utley a Hall of Famer?  Why glorious peak could get former Phillies star into Cooperstown”

I think the answer is “Yes, Chase Utley belongs in the Hall of Fame” and I believe that matter was settled in 2001 when the Veterans’ Committee voted to include Bill Mazeroski in the Hall of Fame.  Both Utley and Mazeroski played second base for more than 90% of their careers; so, comparisons of their stats are far more like apples-to-apples than they are apples-to-oranges.

• Mazeroski was the better fielder; he won a Gold Glove Award seven times in his career.  Utley never won a Gold Glove.
• Utley won the Silver Slugger Award four times in his career.  Mazeroski could not have won the award because it did not exist when he was playing MLB.

At the plate, Utley was clearly superior to Mazeroski with these career stats:

• Tenure in MLB:  Mazeroski = 17 years   Utley = 16 years
• Career Batting Average:  Mazeroski – .260  Utley = .275
• Career OBP:  Mazeroski = .299  Utley = .358
• Career OPS:  Mazeroski = .667   Utley = .823
• Bill Mazeroski never led the NL in any offensive category in his 17 years in the major leagues and his best season in runs scored was 71.
• Chase Utley never led the NL in any offensive category – – except hit by pitch – – in his 16 years in the major leagues but he scored more than 71 runs in 9 seasons.

My conclusion is simple.  If Bill Mazeroski is a member of the baseball Hall of Fame, then Chase Utley should also be a member of the baseball Hall of Fame.

Finally, since today involved a deep dive into some MLB stats, let me close with some words from Casey Stengel:

“A lot of people my age are dead at the present time.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is Boxing Day in many parts of the world.  The holiday was originally meant to be a day when gifts were given to the needy; today it is a public holiday celebrated as part of the festivities of the Christmas season.  Here in the US, Boxing Day is the day when folks pack into boxes the things they got for Christmas that they want to return; it is a high traffic/high revenue day for UPS and FedEx.  Happy Boxing Day to all …

Jerry Kill has had to step down as the head football coach at New Mexico St.  He had been the coach of the Aggies for only two years but in that time, he amassed a record of 17-11, which is a major improvement of football fortunes in that part of the world.  Coach Kill has been dealing with health issues related to epilepsy for more than a decade now and those issues caused him to resign as the coach at Minnesota in the middle of the 2015 season.

Coach Kill remained in the football world as a special assistant to various other coaches after taking a couple of years off to deal with his health.  He returned to the sidelines in 2021 at New Mexico State.  In his career, he has taken over several programs that were “in distress” and turned them around; his overall coaching record is 175-115.  Jerry Kill is 62 years old; he has earned his retirement.

•  Bonne chance Jerry Kill…

Sticking with the broad theme of college football coaches, the University of Colorado will offer a new course in its College of Media Communication and Information (CMCI).  The course number will be CMCI 4021, and the course title will be:

• “Prime Time: Public Performance and Leadership”

Yes, the course will be on how Coach Prime handles his celebrity status in addition to his head coaching responsibilities.  As part of the course description, the school catalog contains this information:

“The course will focus on helping college athletes explore how to manage their time in college, prepare for career, manage their celebrity, identify when best to speak into their profit center, advocate for worthy causes, coordinate with sports agents and how to interact with journalists and the media.”

No, Deion Sanders will not teach the course.  But would you be shocked to your foundations if you heard that he attended one of the classes to “give a lecture” or to demonstrate how to conduct a press event?  I expect that will happen at one point…

Staying in the realm of college football, Casey Thompson has entered the NCAA transfer portal.  If you are wondering why that is even marginally interesting, let me peel back a couple of layers of this announcement:

• When Thomson finds/selects a school, he will go there and be part of college football for a seventh season.  A redshirt year, an added year of eligibility due to COVID and whatever other arcane rules the NCAA applies to “eligibility” have seemingly given Thompson the athletic equivalent of tenure in college football.
• Thompson was at Texas from 2019 through 2021.
• Thompson was at Nebraska in 2022.
• Thompson was at Florida Atlantic in 2023.
• Quo vadis Casey Thompson?

Reacting to the news of Thompson’s entering the transfer portal, here is the assessment offered by humorist, Brad Dickson:

“Casey Thompson is going to return for his SEVENTH year of college. This ties the record of Bluto Blutarsky in ‘Animal House.’”

Switching gears and switching sports …  The LA Dodgers were clearly not content with signing Shohei Ohtani to a $700M contract – – much of it deferred compensation – – because they have also signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325M contract over the next 12 years.  Yamamoto has been dominant in Japanese leagues for the last several years, but he has never thrown a pitch in a Major League game.  The Dodgers have taken a hefty gamble here.

The magnitude of Ohtani’s contract raised eyebrows, but Ohtani is an established major league player who can pitch and play every day as a designated hitter.  In addition to receiving votes in his career for the Cy Young Award, Ohtani finished this year with the best OPS in the AL at 1.066.  One can think the Dodgers committed more resources than they should have to one player, but one cannot think Ohtani will be “a bust” – – save for injury of course.

Yamamoto’s deal is similarly surprising due to its magnitude, but it is made even more interesting by the Dodgers’ faith in their scouts who have seen him play in Japan and their conclusion that his talents will indeed translate to MLB.  For the record, the Dodgers are on the hook for $1.025B to these two players PLUS the Dodgers will pay Yamamoto’s Japanese team $50M in exchange for the playing rights to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Deep pockets …

Finally, the following quotation from financier, J. P. Morgan, seems to have been a guiding principle for the LA Dodgers ownership:

“If it makes the slightest difference to you what it costs, don’t try it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, my long-suffering wife and I had good friends come to our home for dinner.  One of the guests said that as a retiree, she thought it wasn’t quite right for her to say TGIF since she had not put in a full work week and every day of the week in retirement is pretty much like every other day.  In general, I agree with that position.

However, here in Curmudgeon Central, Friday is a “special day” because Friday manifests itself as Football Friday which identifies that day as different from the other six. Lemony Snicket famously asked:

• “Why Is This Night Different From All Other Nights?”

I will answer for Fridays during the daytime in this part of the world simply by commencing this Football Friday in the usual manner – – reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• [Aside:  Until the last two weeks, the “Betting Bundle” has not been embarrassing when subjected to review; however, in the last two weeks the combined record is 1-5-0 which is shameful.]

Anyhow …

• College:  0-0-0   =>   Season:  19-9-0
• NFL:  1-2-0   =>   Season:  18-19-0
• Parlays:  1-1    Profit:  $17    =>  Season:  8-13   Loss:  $130

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Yesterday, Florida State announced a “special board of trustees meeting” to be held today.  Reports are that the major item on the agenda is the Seminoles’ continued presence in the ACC.  That conference represents that it has an “ironclad grant of rights” from all its member schools that cannot be tinkered with until 2036.  Naturally, the terms and conditions of that ironclad document have never been challenged in court, the actual level of “ironcladedness” is still to be ascertained.

Seminoles’ fanboys are still hurting by the fact that undefeated Florida State was bumped from the CFP this year by not one but two teams with a loss on their record.  More than a few commentators who believe that strength of schedule matters in decisions such as the invitation to the CFP can rightly point to the fact that Florida St. did not play a schedule one might characterize as “Murderers’ Row”.  Nevertheless, that is not the motive force behind today’s meeting to consider the collegiate athletics version of “secession”.

As is always the case, the issue is money.  In terms of payments to the various schools in the ACC based on TV rights fees and revenues from the ACC Network, the ACC members get as much as $30M per year less than schools in the Big 10.  One of the trustees tipped his hand as regards his position on today’s agenda item when he was quoted as saying:

 “It’s not a matter of if we leave [the ACC], but how and when we leave.”

So, allow me a flight of fancy here and let me assume that Florida St. finds a way out of its commitment to the ACC.  Where might the Seminoles take up new residence – – assuming that another conference might want them?

• SEC:  Geographically and regarding rivalries, this makes the most sense.  But does Florida want rival Florida St. as a conference foe?  And that would give the SEC an odd number of schools which becomes a scheduling headache.
• Big 10:  Geographically, this makes almost no sense.  Look at the footprint of the Big 10 and ponder these questions:

Is Ohio St. the closest school in the Big 10 to Florida St. or is it Maryland?

How lovely will road trips to Washington and Oregon be?

• Big 12:  The simple question here is, how much more money would Florida St. get as a Big 12member compared to staying in the ACC?  I do not know the answer to that question, but I would be surprised if it was a huge amount.
• Independent:  Florida St. was an independent for much of its football history; it only joined the ACC in 1992 in the middle of Bobby Bowden’s tenure there.  There is no pot of gold in terms of TV revenues for an independent team unless the name is Notre Dame.  I think this is a non-starter of an option.

News out of Oxford MS is that Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss have reached an agreement for a contract extension for Coach Kiffin.  Details of the extension were not announced but state law in Mississippi does not allow state employees – – such as Kiffin – – to get extensions greater than 4 years.  This extension – – if it is indeed for 4 years – – would be a career departure for Lane Kiffin.

Lane Kiffin’s coaching career has been peripatetic to say the least.

• He began his head coaching experience with the then Oakland Raiders in 2007.
• In 2009, he was the head coach at Tennessee.
• He took over the USC job in 2010 and remained there through the 2013 season.
• From 2013 through 2016, he was the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama.
• From there through 2019, Kiffin was the head coach at Florida Atlantic.
• In December 2019, he signed on with Ole Miss.  If he stays through a 4-year extension, he will have been at Ole Miss for 9 years.  Unheard of …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFC South is both pathetic and exciting.  None of the four teams has a winning record as of this morning (pathetic) but three of the four are within one game of one another (exciting).  The Bucs lead the division today with a record of 7-7 (based on tiebreakers) and the Bucs won the division last year with a regular season record of 8-9.  Here is what Bucs ‘coach Todd Bowles had to say about the next three weeks of this year’s regular season:

“It’s the playoffs for everybody right now. We’ve got to show up and do the right things we can to win the game. We’re all banged up, we’re all fighting for spots… I don’t really care where we play at, as long as we get in.”

Tom Brady was not generous in his comments on the quality of NFL football on display this season.  I did some counting and assuming that I got it right, there have been 244 regular season games to date in 2023.  Of those games, 155 of them (69.2%) have been one-score games.  [Aside:  I define “one-score” as 8 or fewer points.]  So, does that large fraction of close games represent league parity or does it mean there are not enough very good teams that can go out and beat up on “the rest of the league” routinely.  It would seem as if Tom Brady is on the side of “not enough good teams”.  The NFL probably likes the parity angle and sponsors who bought ads in late 4^th quarter time slots don’t care about the underlying reason, but they are happy to have reason for fans to stay tuned in to the very end.

The NFL owners held a meeting recently and one announcement coming from that conclave was that there will be a regular season game played in Sao Paolo, Brazil next year.  The league played a regular season game in Germany for the first time this year; next year will give the league exposure in Brazil.  I once watched a Super Bowl game at a sports bar in Sydney, Australia and I will not be surprised if the NFL puts on a game there and finds an interested audience there.

The NFL’s 17-game schedule sets up conveniently for a way to schedule 8 international games.  With an odd number of regular season games for each team, what the league does is to have one conference hold 9 home games one year and then 8 home games in the next year.  Well, if the conference with 9 home games were to be scheduled to play 8 of their conference games overseas, that would send every team in the “9 home-game conference” to another country for one game.  If Sao Paulo demonstrates interest in next year’s game, the league could begin this way:

• Three of the eight overseas games in London
• Two of the eight overseas games in Germany
• One of the eight overseas games in Mexico City
• One of the eight overseas games in Sao Paulo
• One of the eight overseas games in Australia

So, let it be written; so, let it be done …

The time has come for a look at last week’s NFL games:

Panthers 9  Falcons 7:  I told you this was the Dog-Breath Game of the Week last week …  The Falcons scored their TD in the second quarter with about 5 minutes left; they led 7-3 at halftime.  Here are the Falcons’ possessions in the second half:

• 6 plays – – 27 yards – – 3:16 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – 0:44 Time of Possession – – FUMBLE
• 11 plays – – 51 yards – – 5:57 Time of Possession – – INT

That’s it; that’s the list.  The Falcons managed about 80 yards of offense and held the ball for about 10 minutes in a full half of a game against a team that was 1-12 at the kickoff.  If the football gods believe in “accountability” they will assure that the Falcons do not win their division after this bed-wetting.  I am now convinced that Desmond Ridder is not a “project” at QB; Desmond Ridder is a “mirage” at QB.

Browns 20  Bears 17:  The Browns are for real; the defense is excellent, and Joe Flacco is playing as if he were a character in a Hollywood movie about a guy who was watching games on his couch until he got an emergency call to come and be the QB of a pro team.  Oh wait; that’s the story of Joe Flacco’s year in 2023.  Here is Flacco’s stat line for the game:

• 28 of 44 for 374 yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs.

One of those INTs was a ball that bounded off the intended receiver’s hands and into the hands of a nearby defender.  The Browns won this game despite gaining only 29 yards rushing on 18 carries.  The Bears led this game by 10 points in the 4^th quarter and blew it…

Texans 19  Titans 16 (OT):  Case Keenum stepped in for CJ Stroud and won the game for the Texans keeping them in serious contention for a playoff slot.  They outgained the Titans 340 yards to 204 yards.  The Texans’ defense held Derrick Henry to 9 yards rushing on 16 attempts which is pretty awful in and of itself.  But Henry’s long gain for the day was 4 yards meaning he only gained 5 yards on the other 15 carries.  The Texans’ defense sacked Will Levis 7 times.  The Titans led 13-0 early in the second quarter and then did this for the rest of the game:

• 6 plays – – 9 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 15 yards – – INT
• 3 plays – – minus-17 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 26 yards – – PUNT
• 8 plays – – 19 yards – – FIELD GOAL
• 6 plays – – 18 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 13 yards – – PUNT (This was possession #1 in OT)
• 5 plays – – 5 yards – – PUNT (This was possession #2 in OT)

Chiefs 27  Pats 17:  This was not a great showing by the Chiefs, but it was good enough to beat a team that is sorely undermanned on offense.  Chiefs’ rookie WR, Rashee Rice, had another really good day catching 9 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD.

Saints 24  Giants 6:  I said last week that I thought the Giants had “emptied the gun” with Tommy DeVito at QB; the league’s defensive coordinators now have film on him to analyze.  It sure seems as if the Saints’ defensive braintrust figured it out in this game; the Saints sacked DeVito 6 times.  Total offense for the Giants was only 193 yards.  The Giants were also 2 of 16 on third down conversions.

Dolphins 30  Jets 0:  The Jets’ OL allowed 6 sacks in the first half of this game; total offense for the Jets was 103 yards and the net passing offense was 80 yards.  At halftime, the Jets trailed 24-0 and had generated a net offense of 4 yards.  The Jets also turned the ball over 4 times in the game to make this even more of a debacle than it would appear.  Playing without Tyreek Hill, the fact that the Dolphins hung 30 points on the Jets’ defense is impressive.

Bucs 34  Packers 20:  The Bucs hold onto first place in the NFC South (via tiebreakers) over the Saints with this win.  The Packers’ playoff hopes took a major hit with this eighth loss; they cannot win the division and there are five teams in the NFC with only 7 losses.  Baker Mayfield lit it up here:

• 22 of 28 for 381 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

Niners 45  Cards 29:  The Cards outgained the Niners 436 yards to 406 yards and lost by 16 points; in the process, the Cards held the ball for more than 34 minutes in the game.  Two turnovers – – one of which was a Pick-Six – – did not help the Cards’ cause at all.

Rams 28  Commanders 20:  This game was not as close as the score indicates.  The Rams lost 2 fumbles inside the Commanders’ 10-yardline after long drives.  The Rams are clearly a better team than the Commanders.  The Rams gained 445 yards on offense including 196 yards running the ball.  At the half, the Rams had 242 yards of offense to the Commanders 82 yards of offense.  Jacoby Brisset relieved Sam Howell in the game and led the Commanders to 2 TDs; does that mean the Commanders will give up on Howell?  They should not …

Bills 31  Cowboys 10:  The shock here is that the Cowboys’ offense was held to 195 yards with only 106 yards passing.  Even so, the Cowboys had more passing yards than the Bills who only netted 85 yards through the air.  What happened is that the Bills ran the ball down the throat of the Cowboys’ defense gaining 266 yards rushing on 49 attempts.  Notwithstanding this loss, based on other happenings last weekend, the Cowboys are now assured of a playoff slot in the NFC.  The Cowboys are 7-0 at home and only 3-4 on the road this year.  All the talk about Dak Prescott as MVP needs to take a short break here after he posted this rancid stat line:

• 21 of 34 for 134 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Ravens 23  Jags 7:  The Ravens dominated this game from the beginning and this win assures the Ravens of an AFC playoff slot.  This is the third loss in a row for the Jags giving them the same record as the Colts and the Texans, but the Jags remain in the lead in the AFC South via tiebreakers.  The Jags continue to confound regarding their home and road records:

• Jags at Home = 3-5
• Jags Away = 5-1

The Jags all but gave the game away in the first half when they got inside the Ravens’ 40-yard line 4 times.  For their trouble, the Jags netted exactly zero points. They missed two field goals; Trevor Lawrence lost a fumble; and then they gave away a shot at a chip-shot field goal with some horrible clock management at end the first half.

Bengals 27  Vikes 24 (OT):  The Vikes under the direction of Nick Mullens outgained the Bengals by 46 yards in the game; Mullens posted what looks like an impressive stat line until you notice that both INTs were in the Red Zone.  Overall, Mullens went:

• 26 of 33 for 303 yards with 2 TDs and those 2 INTs in the Red Zone.

The Bengals trailed 17-3 at the start of the 4^th quarter; this was a heroic comeback win.  The loss is the 7^th this season for the Vikes meaning they are in a scramble with 4 other NFC teams for a playoff slot.  The Bengals’ win gives them an 8-6 record and keeps them alive in the AFC playoff picture for now.

Colts 30  Steelers 13:  The Colts remain in the playoff picture in the AFC: the Steelers are now only a mathematical possibility.  The Steelers’ offense was a no-show again last week generating only 216 yards for the game.  With 14 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Steelers led 13-0.  After that the offense went into hibernation:

• 3 plays – – 14 yards – – INT
• 6 plays – – 31 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 9 yards – – HALFTIME
• 1 play – – 2 yards – — FUMBLE
• 3 plays – – minus-2 yards – – PUNT
• 8 plays – – 36 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 26 yards – – INT
• 4 plays – – minus-8 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 2 plays – – 13 yards – – GAME OVER

Lions 42  Broncos 17:  So, this week the Lions were the bullies and not the bullied.  Here are data to give you a sense of the Lions’ dominance:

• Lions’ Offense = 448 yards   Broncos’ Offense = 287 yards.
• Lions’ rushing = 6.6 yards per carry   Broncos’ rushing = 3.0 yards per carry
• Lions’ Red Zone = 6 for 6 TDs   Broncos’ Red Zone = 2 of 3 for TDs

Here is the offensive output for the Broncos in the first half where they fell behind 21-0:

• 4 plays – – 41 yards – – FUMBLE
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 30 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-12 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 11 yards – – PUNT
• 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – HALFTIME

Do the math.  The Broncos gained 70 yards on 24 plays in 2 quarters of football …

 

Games This Week:

 

There has been a lot of talk about how important this week’s games are for the handful of players who are in contention for the 2023 MVP Award.  Ordinarily, I prefer to ignore those sorts of speculations until the season is over, but I do want to make one exception.  For this year’s Comeback Player of the Year, my vote – – if I had one – – would have been locked in on Monday night November 13^th.  On that night, Damar Hamlin was active, played in the game and made one tackle.  Later in the season, he doubled those stats giving him 2 tackles in 2 games in 2023.  And for that, Damar Hamlin is my unquestioned choice as the Comeback Player of the Year.  I will listen to no arguments to the contrary!

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Bengals – 3 at Steelers (38):  The spread opened as a “pick ‘em” game and has trended to the Bengals all week long.  The two teams have been headed in opposite directions over the past month with the Bengals on a three-game winning streak and the
Steelers losing three in a row.  Mitchell Trubisky goes to the bench this week in favor of Mason Rudolph; I have no idea if that is an upgrade, a downgrade or just a lateral arabesque.  The Bengals will be without Jamar Chase for the game; that is a downgrade for the Bengals’ offense.  Count this as an elimination game for the Steelers.  The Bengals need the win to continue their favorable positioning in the AFC wildcard race.  AFC North games are always fun to watch and this one should be no exception.

(Sat 8:30 PM ET) Bills – 13 at Chargers (44):  This line has flown all over the place this week.  It opened with the Bills as 9-point favorites; then it soared to 14 points and even 14.5 points around Tuesday and early Wednesday.  Then came a flow of “Chargers money” dropping the line to 11 at which point “Bills’ money” showed up again and settled the line between 12.5 and 13.5 depending on which book you are looking at.  The Bills’ offense has been clicking recently and the Chargers’ defense is porous to say the least.  I am tempted by the OVER because I think there is a reasonable chance that the Bills will score in the high 30s here, but I will resist that because I fear the football equivalent of what Wall Street calls the “dead cat bounce” – – if you drop a dead cat from high enough, it will bounce a little bit once it lands.  Wall St. thinks about that as financially troubled stocks crater in value; I worry about it in the NFL sense when a bad team fires its coach, and the bad team puts it together for a game or two and looks less bad.

Colts at Falcons – 2.5 (44.5):  I gave this game a passing thought as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because neither team is fun to watch.  However, the game is important to both teams regarding their playoff aspirations this season, so I dropped that thought.  The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke in favor of Desmond Ridder here; the Colts will continue to go with “The 2023 Gardner Minshew Experience”.  If you think you have a handle on the outcome of this game, teach me how to read the entrails of goats.

Packers – 5 at Panthers (37):  Two weeks ago, the Packers looked like a shoo-in for a wild card slot in the NFC playoffs – – and then proceeded to lose 2 games in a row.  They remain “in the hunt” but it is not clear to me whether they are predators or prey at this juncture.  What I know is that the Panthers’ offense has been putrid all year long and has not scored an offensive TD in the last two games – – coaching change notwithstanding.  The key here is for the Packers to stop the Panthers from running the football because the Packers’ defense has been vulnerable to the run all season long.

Browns – 1.5 at Texans (40.5):  Here is a stat I ran across earlier this week:

• The Texans are 4-1 against teams who arrive at the kickoff with winning records.  Only two teams are better so far this year:
• The Niners are 5-0 and the Ravens are 5-1 against such opponents.
• That is lofty company for the 2023 Houston Texans.

Oh, by the way, the Browns have a winning record as of this morning …  This game has serious implications for both teams and their playoff hopes.  I love the Texans as a storyline for the 2023 NFL season, but I like the Browns storyline too; I think the Browns’ defense wins this one; I’ll take the Browns to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Seahawks – 3 at Titans (41):  The Titans’ QB is a game-time decision.  Will Levis hurt his ankle last week after taking 7 sacks against the Texans; the Titans may need to go back to Ryan Tannehill for this game.  Geno Smith is set to return for the Seahawks this week.  The Titans are eliminated from the playoff chase, but the Seahawks took a big step forward last week with their win at home over the Eagles.  Another win puts them in a positive position; a loss would be difficult to overcome.

Commanders at Jets – 3 (37):  Here you have it, folks; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The two teams line up at the kickoff with a combined record of 9-19.  In addition, consider all this:

• The Jets are last in the NFL in Total Offense and average only 14.4 points per game.
• The Commanders are last in the NFL in Total Defense and give up 30.2 points per game.

As Frank Sinatra sang:

“Somethin’s gotta give; somethin’s gotta give’ somethin’s gotta give …”

As an added element of putrescence for the game, the Jets will start Trevor Siemian at QB; he will be the fourth Jets’ starting QB of this season.  With Zach Wilson questionable due to concussion protocol, Siemian’s backup would be Brett Rypien.  I wonder what the OVER/UNDER line for Total Punts in the Game might be…?

Lions – 3 at Vikes (47):  The Vikes’ defense under the tutelage of Brian Flores blitzes more often than any other team this year and their success with their blitzes is what fuels the defense,  The Lions are second in the NFL in rushing offense and if the Lions can run the ball effectively it will limit the effectiveness of the Vikes’ blitzes and minimize the opportunities for the Vikes to deploy them.  The Lions can wrap up the NFC North title with a win here; a loss for the Vikes is not fatal to their playoff chances – – but a loss will hurt.  If you like trends:

• The Vikes have covered five games in a row when they were the underdog.
• The Vikes are the underdog here.

Jags at Bucs – 2 (40):  The spread opened with the Jags as 3-point favorites; then came reports that Trevor Lawrence was in the concussion protocol and the line shifted almost immediately to this number.  The fact that it has remained there tells me that the betting public expects Lawrence to miss the game this week.  If so, it will be the first time in his NFL career than he has not been the starting QB for the Jags,  This is a big game for both teams; the Bucs have won 3 in a row and lead the NFC South based on tiebreakers but need a win to maintain that position; the Jags have lost 3 games in a row and have squandered their lead in the AFC South such that they now have the same record (8-6) as the Colts and the Texans in that division.

Cowboys at Dolphins – 1 (49.5):  The spread opened with the Cowboys as 1-point favorites, and it has bounced around between those two numbers all week.  A huge question for this game is the availability of Tyreek Hill for the Dolphins; reports say he was a “full participant” in practice with the team this week.  I guess that means he will play…  Both teams’ scoring average is more than 30 points per game – – and so I wonder why the Total Line is as low as it is and has been steady around that level all week.  The Cowboys’ road-game troubles have been chronicled to death and this is a road-game for the Cowboys against a team with a solid winning record.  Can they find a cure for their “road-game aversion”?  Maybe the oddsmakers are sucking me in here, but I think this game goes OVER the Total Line comfortably; put that in the “Betting Bundle:”

Cards at Bears – 4 (43.5):  This could have been the Dog-Breath Game of the Week; it is little consequence and neither team is a compelling attraction.  Both teams have a shot at owning the Overall #1 pick in the draft next year thanks to the Bears’ acquisition of the Panther’s pick.  So, losing this game is not much of a setback for either team.

(Sun Nite) Pats at Broncos – 6 (34):  The Total Line opened at 36 points and has been eroding all week long; you can find it at 33.5 points at one sportsbook this morning.  Frankly, I have no idea how the Pats are going to move the ball effectively against the Broncos’ defense; the Pats’ offense is anemic at best.  The weather forecast says there could be snow in Denver this weekend with accumulations up to 5 inches.  That should not assist the Pats’ offense even a little bit. The Broncos still have hope for the playoffs and should be motivated beyond the level for the Pats; I’ll take the Broncos at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon 1:00 PM ET) Raiders at Chiefs – 11 (41):  This is a rivalry game that goes back to the origins of the old AFL in the 60s.  Since Patrick Mahomes arrived in KC, the Chiefs are 10-1 against the Raiders.  The Chiefs will be the AFC West champions if they win here; I believe the Raiders will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with a loss.

(Mon 4 :30 PM ET) Giants at Eagles – 13.5 (42.5):  Given the way the Eagles have been playing over the last month, I would be hard pressed to make them a 13.5-point favorite over a USFL team.  Last week, the Eagles unveiled a new defensive play caller, and that change produced no new results.  The Giants also stunk out the joint last week (see above) gaining less than 200 yards passing and allowing Tommy DeVito to be sacked 7 times.  Motivation for this game is both simple and subtle:

• The Eagles are in the playoffs for sure; the Giants are out of the playoffs for sure.
• The Eagles can lead the NFC East with a win and a Cowboys’ loss.
• The Giants can avoid – – for now – – double-digit losses in the season with a win.

(Mon Nite) Ravens at Niners – 5.5 (47):  As if you needed any clarification, this is the Game of the Week.  In fact, if I were to make a Super Bowl prediction, I would say that this is the pairing we will see come February 2024.  The Ravens’ defense leads the NFL in points allowed (16.1 points per game).  The Niners’ offense averages 30.4 points per game (3^rd in the NFL).  The Ravens have won 4 games in a row; the Niners have won 6 games in a row – – and all 6 of those wins were double-digit wins.  The Niners have already wrapped up the NFC West title; they have their eye on the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs with all their playoff games coming at home.  The Ravens lead the Browns by 2 games in the AFC North this morning with 3 games left to play; that puts them in great shape for a division title, but they too want the #1 seed in their playoff bracket, and they lead the Dolphins by 1 game in that chase.  Count this game as appointment viewing …

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Browns – 1.5 over Texans
• Cowboys/Dolphins OVER 49.5
• Broncos – 6 over Pats.

And just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:

• Bengals @ minus-150
• Browns @ minus-145  $100 wager to win $182.

And …

• Jets @ minus-160
• Bears @ minus-205   $100 wager to win $142.

            Finally, here is a cathartic comment from former Ohio St. head coach, Woody Hayes:

“There’s nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In May 2018, the US Supreme Court declared PASPA – – the Professional And Amateur Sports Protection Act – – unconstitutional.  No need to relitigate the issues in the case, but the ruling opened the doors for any states in the US that wanted to legalize wagering on sports were free to do so.  PASPA had prevented that prior to May 2018.

So, what has transpired in the more than 5 years since that Supreme Court ruling?  Well, for one thing it showed that whatever evil PASPA was protecting sports from seems minor at best.  Gambling on professional and amateur sports opened up to various states has not wrought havoc with those sports nor have there been myriad betting scandals.  What has happened is that legislatures in 37 states have passed laws enabling or authorizing sports betting in those states.

Interestingly, the two most populous states – – California and Texas – – are not part of the list of states with legal sports gambling.  Please note that I said legal sports gambling because you may be certain that there is plenty of sports gambling taking place in California and Texas in venues other than a sanctioned sportsbook within the borders of those two states.  California had two sports gambling items on the ballot as voter referendums in 2023 and both were defeated badly.

To give you an idea of how popular sports gambling is in the US, consider these data:

• In 2018 when sports gambling was confined to Nevada and Delaware, Americans bet $4.6B on sports.
• In 2022 with sportsbooks open in 37 states, Americans bet 93.2B on sports.

Shifting gears …  As of this morning the McNeese St. women’s basketball team has a record of 5-9 for the season.  Looking at the results of their games, one might conclude that they are in some strange middle ground when it comes to their place in the women’s basketball hierarchy.  Consider these scores:

• Baylor 124
• McNeese St.  44

And …

• K-State 101
• McNeese St.  39

And …

• LSU 133
• McNeese St.  44

Those shellackings might lead you to conclude that McNeese St is as bad as it gets in women’s college basketball until you look at these other results:

• McNeese St.  102
• Ecclesia  28

And …

• McNeese St.  107
• North American 77

It seems to me that the McNeese St. Cowgirls are too good to be lumped in with the likes of “schools you have never heard of” and also, they are too bad to try to compete against Big-12 or SEC competition.  Maybe they need to pick their lane…

Next up …  Do you recall back in 2021 when MLB moved its All-Star Game from Atlanta to Denver in the wake of a new Georgia voting law that upset many civil rights advocates who said the law had the potential to restrict access to voting for minority groups.  Let me be clear on two points:

1. I believe that every US citizen over the age of 18 should be able to vote in any election where he/she is eligible to vote.
2. I do not believe that MLB’s decision to move that All-Star Game granted access to voting to a single minority voter who might have been denied a vote in Georgia.

And in case you missed it, MLB has decided to play the 2025 All-Star Game in Atlanta.

Last item for today …  The NY Jets activated Aaron Rodgers from Injured Reserve and put him on the 53-man active list.  Coach Saleh said he will not play in any of the Jets final three games now that the Jets are mathematically eliminated from the AFC playoffs, but that Rodgers will remain on the 53-man active roster because:

“… it’s all a part of his rehab, and just having him out on the football field is a plus for everyone. It’s a plus for him, it’s a plus for his teammates, so we’re going to keep him on the 53.”

Granted, I do not have any pipeline of information pouring out of the Jets’ locker room, but it does seem like a waste of an active roster spot.  If Rodgers had not been hinting for months that he wanted to try to play for real in the late season Jets’ games, would they have even thought about such a move.  If so, and if he injures his Achilles again in “active roster drills” next week, will the Jets replace him with Joe Namath on their active roster?  If not, why not’?

Finally, let me close with this from G. K. Chesterton:

“The Bible tells us to love our neighbors, and also to love our enemies, probably because they are generally the same people.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In case anyone was wondering why there was no rant yesterday, it is because we had an equipment failure in the system that gives us home Internet service.  But thanks to a competent and quick Verizon technician who came this morning, I am back on the air again.

A week ago, the Chargers fired their coach, Brandon Staley, and their GM, Tom Telasco, in the wake of losing to the Raiders and giving up 63 points in the process.  On the one hand, this is not hugely surprising.  That loss is an embarrassment, and it comes less than a year after a loss by the Chargers in the playoffs after they led the Jags 27-0 at halftime.  The reason I was mildly surprised is that the Chargers’ owner, Dean Spanos, is not known as someone who looks to have to pay someone not to coach his football team.  But in this case, he swallowed a year left on Staley’s contract and moved on.

This makes 3 NFL teams who have made an in-season coaching change in 2023.  The Raiders and the Panthers also have different coaches now from the ones who started the season back in September.  The Raiders are highly unlikely to make the playoffs; the Panthers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs; the Chargers are a game behind the Raiders so you can basically count them out too.  I mention this because over the years, only a very few in-season coaching changes have made a big positive difference in team performance.

Nevertheless, the Chargers’ change spawned a lot of speculation about other NFL coaches who could/should be fired immediately – – if not sooner.  Here are five coaches who have been called out as being on a short leash.  I have put them in alphabetical order lest anyone suspect that I am prioritizing this in any way:

• Bill Belichick:  His record with the Pats is a gaudy 265-119 but the team has been a disappointment for several years now and has been only slightly better than fetid in 2023.  He has one year left on his contract with the Pats, but I doubt if that would be much of a factor as Robert Kraft thinks about retaining or not retaining Belichick’s services in 2024.  The question I would ask is simple; the Pats’ record in 2023 is currently 3-11; it is two games worse than any other team in the AFC.  So, what is there to be gained by firing the coach now?  Maybe the owner will decide to fire him in January, but there seems to be nothing to gain over the next three weeks.
• [Aside:  IF Robert Kraft decides to fire Belichick – – now or in January – – he needs to announce the new coach 24 hours after the presser that announces the firing.  If you fire one of the best coaches in the history of the NFL, you must do it with a new candidate in mind and not as the beginning of a search process that could take a month.]
• Matt Eberflus:  His record with the Bears is an unimpressive 8-23.  However, the Bears have a far more fundamental situation to address and assess than Eberflus’ coaching capabilities.  The Bears need to decide once and for all if Justin Fields is their QB of the future; and if he is, they must improve the talent level of the skill players around him.  If he is not, then the Bears need to draft a QB this year and get an Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach who can begin the new guy’s developmental processes.  Spend the next three weeks working on that stuff and not firing the coach.
• Ron Rivera:  His record with the Commanders – under a variety of team names – is 26-37-1.  He has one year left on a 5-year contract as the coach and director of football stuff for the team.  I said before that Rivera cannot remain in his GM role with the team because the roster he constructed is flawed to say the very least.  I suspect that his recent decision to fire the Defensive Coordinator and the DB Coach will not work to his benefit regarding maintaining his job in the new year.  After firing those guys, Rivera took over defensive play calling and game planning.  The result of his taking on those roles is that the team’s defense gave up even more points than they had been giving up.  The Commanders’ final regular season game this year is on January 7^th; I will be surprised if Rivera is still the coach on January 9^th, but there is nothing tangible to be gained by firing him now.
• Robert Saleh:  His record with the Jets is a not-so-good 16-32.  He is signed as the Jets’ coach through 2026 which makes firing him now or even in January financially burdensome.  Saleh – – and GM, Joe Douglas – – have built an excellent defensive team; on offense, they need an infusion of talent and a healthy Aaron Rodgers to play QB for them.  The Jets’ QB situation has been disastrous ever since Joe Namath’s knees gave out; Saleh has had to trot out Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, Trevor Siemian, Mike White etc. and that is not conducive to building a winning record.  My opinion: the Jets would be nuts to fire Saleh now or in January.
• Arthur Smith:  His record with the Falcons is 20-28.  Meh!  I cannot find reliable sources regarding his contract with the team so I have no idea if it would be financially burdensome to fire him now or in January.  I will say that Smith came to the team with an “offensive pedigree” and usually teams led by “offensive coaches” are “fun to watch”.  The Falcons are not fun to watch; they are a slog.  The signature loss by the Falcons just last week to the previously 1-win Panthers by a score of 9-7 can easily be portrayed as a firing offense for an NFL coach.  However, the Falcons are only a game behind the division leading Bucs in a sorry-assed NFC South.  Is “disruption” the Falcons’ path to the playoffs?  If the owner wants to fire Smith in January, I will have no strong objection, but I think an immediate firing makes little sense.

Finally, here is a quote from novelist, Peter De Vries about confession; I think it also applies to NFL owners firing coaches in mid-season:

“Confession is good for the soul only in the sense that a tweed coat is good for dandruff – it is a palliative rather than a remedy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………