The Sports Curmudgeon

In a recent rant, I noted the serious decline in importance and relevance of Sports Illustrated over the last 25-30 years.  For about 30 years, it was the pinnacle of sports journalism/reporting, but now it has devolved into a monthly publication that has been shown to release things written in the main by an Artificial Intelligence proxy under a fictitious byline.  That is quite a fall from grace.

During the year, SI’s  readers could anticipate several annual “events”:

• In February there was the “Swimsuit Issue”
• In March there was the MLB Preview Issue
• In August there was the college and NFL Preview Issue – – and – –

In December, Sports Illustrated would identify “The Sportsman of the Year.”  Naturally, the award these days is labeled as the Sportsperson of the Year but ever since Roger Bannister was the first recipient in 1954 for breaking the four-minute mile barrier, the award has gone to people with notable achievements in that year.  Here are just a few of the recipients that you will surely recall:

• Arnold Palmer
• Sandy Koufax
• Muhammed Ali
• Chris Evert
• Wayne Gretzky
• You get the idea …

The “definition” of the award winner – – offered up by the folks at Sports Illustrated who created and maintained the award – – is as follows:

“… the athlete or team whose performance that year most embodies the spirit of sportsmanship and achievement.”

And that brings us to 2023 when the Sportsperson of the Year is identified as – – drum roll please – – Deion Sanders.

I have no animus for Deion Sanders; I think his Colorado football team represented a significant improvement over recent editions of Colorado football teams.  This year, the Buffaloes quadrupled the number of wins as compared to last year’s Buffaloes.  Deion Sanders brought attention to Colorado football that had not been there for at least 25 years, and he brought a lot of attention to college football in general.  What he did this year is undoubtedly praiseworthy.

Now let me channel my inner Stephen A. Smith … How-evah, the award is supposed to embody the spirit of “sportsmanship and achievement.”  And try as I may, I cannot dress up Deion Sanders’ accomplishments in 2023 in either the cloak of sportsmanship or the robes of achievement.  Frankly, I would prefer to see any of the following receive this award based on “sportsmanship and achievement”:

• Novak Djokovic
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lionel Messi
• Shohei Ohtani

Moving on …  Yesterday, I supported the choices made by the CFP Selection Committee for the four tournament participants.  My support for their decisions has not changed but I would lose a ton of “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out a possibility that could cause a humongous case of heartburn in the sports world.  Remember, I said “possibility”:

1. Alabama beats previously undefeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
2. Texas beats previously undefeated Washington in the Sugar Bowl.
3. Florida St. beats Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

In that case, the only undefeated Power 5 team would be ACC Champion Florida St. but the CFP-determined champion would be the winner of the Alabama/Texas rematch involving two teams who would enter the game with a loss.  Florida St. would be “left out” with a 14-0 record.  Senator Rick Scott (R- FL) has already blown a gasket issuing statements and “demanding answers” as to how/why FSU could have been degraded by the Selection Committee.  If the scenario above were to come to pass, he might go apoplectic.

Finally, having mentioned Senator Scott, let me close here with an observation by author Saul Bellow regarding politicians:

“Take our politicians: they’re a bunch of yo-yos.  The presidency is now a cross between a popularity contest and a high school debate with an encyclopedia of cliches as the first prize.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The CFP Selection Committee has done its selecting for the CFP and the other major New Year’s Day Bowl Games.  As is always the case, there are screams of outrage at the make-up of the CFP participants; I am not particularly offended by the CFP field because:

• I believe that the Committee should choose the 4 best teams today as the participants.
• I do not believe that teams “deserve a CFP slot” based purely on their records; if they did, then Liberty would be a shoo-in.

Yes, I know the selection process must be subjective until the 4 teams sort out the tournament champion on the field, but my personal interpretation of what the Committee ought to do flies in the face of something I have said repeatedly in my Football Friday rants:

• I have said that Florida St. was back in the national discussion as a top-tier team and the Committee should remember them as a top team when decision time arrived.
• Then, the Seminoles lost their starting QB and their backup QB.  Yes, Florida St. managed to beat Louisville for the ACC Championship with its backup-backup QB, but please recall that no one – – as in nobody – – thought Louisville was a playoff candidate.
• A month ago, Florida St. looked like a strong candidate as a CFP selection; that was then, and this is now.

If you assume that Michigan and Washington are mortal locks for a place in the CFP, then there are two openings left this year.  If you also assume – – as do I – – that Liberty University as an undefeated conference champion does not belong in the CFP field, then two “one-loss teams” will be in the field.  I have reconstructed the “strength of schedule” for candidates for the two open slots.  The following is a table with the won/lost records and winning percentage for the opponents of various candidates:

• Opponents of Alabama were 85-59  Win percentage = .591
• Opponents of Ohio St. were 82-62  Win percentage = .569
• Opponents of Texas were 81-63  Win percentage = .563
• Opponents of Georgia were 75-69  Win percentage = .521
• Opponents of Florida St. were 67-76  Win percentage = .469

Now, if “strength of schedule” is to be a factor in the selection process, that would put Alabama in for sure.  The choice between Ohio St. and Texas is a tossup by strength of schedule measures but putting Texas in the field over Ohio St. allows two things to happen:

• First, there are 4 different conferences represented in the CFP – – AND – –
• Since Texas beat Alabama earlier, it puts the winner of that game in the CFP.

I do not know if that is the logic used by the committee members, but it is logical enough for me to forget about flying into an Internet rage this morning.  I have seen all four of these teams play at least one full game this year; there is no weak sister in the field.

The other four “New Year’s Day Bowl Games” have interesting aspects that make for potentially good viewing:

• Dec 29^th  Cotton Bowl:  Missouri/Ohio St.  The Ohio St. QB just entered the transfer portal.
• Dec 30^th  Peach Bowl:  Ole Miss/Penn St.  Ole Miss is 15^th nationally in Total Offense per game and Penn St. is #1 in the nation in Total Defense.
• Dec 30^th  Orange Bowl:  Georgia/Florida St.:  The early line has Georgia as a 2 TD favorite.
• Jan 1^st  Fiesta Bowl:  Liberty/Oregon:  A test of the importance of “strength of schedule”.

Possibly the least interesting of all the bowl games is the one where Minnesota (5-7 for the season) will take on Bowling Green (a team that went 5-3 in the MAC).  That game will take place on Dec. 26^th.  My advice would be for you to use the time that the game is on to do something else that will be constructive for your life.

Possibly the most interesting of the so-called minor bowl games is the Sun Bowl which will be played on Dec 29^th featuring Notre Dame and Oregon St.  That game should be a nice “appetizer” for the main course that evening between Missouri and Ohio St.

The proliferation of bowl games puts a perverse twist on college football.  Teams use bowl games to generate revenue for the athletic department plus it gives teams extra time for practices as they prep for the bowl game which also means extra preparation for spring practice and for next season.  So, far, that does not sound “perverse” until you realize that the worst teams for this year – – the ones that might need extra practice time to be more competitive for next season – – are exactly the teams that do not get that extra practice time because they do not merit bowl invitations.

Finally, I’ll close today with these words from Mark Twain:

“There’s one sure way to find out if a man is honest: ask him; if he says yes, you know he is crooked.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Albert Einstein supposedly said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.  Well, here is Curmudgeon Central, we are not insane.  We do the same thing over and over every Friday in the Fall, but we expect the same result – – Football Friday.  So let us begin in the same way we begin every iteration of Football Friday – – a recap of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  2-0-0  =>   Season  =  18-8-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0   =>   Season  =  16-12-0
• Parlays = 0-1  Loss = $100   =>   Season = 7-10  Profit = $53

 

College Football Commentary:

 

According to a report by the Associated Press, James Madison University is going to a bowl game after all.  It turns out that they can go to a bowl game if there are not enough qualifying Division 1-A teams with 6 wins for the season.  Given all the minor bowl games, there are 82 slots open; this year only 79 teams qualified so that opened the door for James Madison and Jacksonville St. to come off the “Ineligible List” raising the number of teams to 81 and leaving one slot empty.  The NCAA steps in at this point and uses some mysterious algorithm to determine which of its 5-7 teams has the best academic progress toward degree status for its athletes.  This year, that distinction goes to Minnesota who will get a bowl bid with a 5-7 record.

I said back in August that Rice would be an interesting program to follow this year because QB JT Daniels was going to finish his career with the Owls.  Well, Daniels played most of the year before getting injured and Rice needed a late season win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2014.  Rice would not have had to wait until the last game of the season for 6 wins had it not lost a game that should have been easy for them against UConn, but given that loss, it took a final week victory over Florida Atlantic to even up the Owls’ record at 6-6.

Another of the major coaching vacancies has been filled.  We knew last week about Mike Elko replacing Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M.  This week, Michigan St. filled the vacancy created by the dismissal of Mel Tucker by hiring former Oregon St. head coach, Jonathan Smith.  Oregon St. was in the race for a slot in the PAC-12 Championship Game until late in the season when they suffered losses to Washington and Oregon – – the two teams that will battle it out for the last ever PAC-12 Championship this weekend.

Let me take a look at some results from last week:

SMU 59  Navy 14:  SMU plays for the American Athletic Conference Championship this week.  The score was 52-14 at halftime; remember, Navy’s defense has had three shutouts this year so scoring 59 points is not something to be ignored.

Tulane 29  UTSA 16:  Tulane will play SMU for the AAC Championship.  Tulane finished the year at 11-1 and the only loss happened back in early September at the hands of Ole Miss.

Oregon 31  Oregon St.  7:  It was not a good day for the Beavers; they lost the game, and they lost their coach to Michigan St. (see above).  Oregon finished the year 11-1 and will play Washington for the PAC-12 Championship.

Washington 24  Washington St. 21:  State outgained the Huskies by 75 yards in the game, but Washington kicked a game-winning field goal at the buzzer to finish the regular season undefeated at 12-0.  The annual Apple Cup will continue for at least five more years (through 2028).  The schools agreed to that scheduling commitment even though the teams will not be in the same conference starting next year.  Maybe that agreement might be a model for Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. to use as a way to continue “Bedlam” as part of their football schedule?

Utah 23  Colorado 17:  Utah held Colorado’s running game to 37 yards – – on 17 rushing attempts – – in this game.

Notre Dame 56  Stanford 23:  The stat sheet is about as ugly as the score in this game:

• ND Offense = 521 yards   Stanford Offense = 347 yards
• ND third-down conversions = 7 of 9   Stanford third-down conversions = 5 of 16
• ND yards per rush = 7.9   Stanford yards per rush = 4.1

Cal 33  UCLA 7:  Cal is now bowl eligible.  UCLA won the stat sheet outgaining Cal by 78 yards for the game.  The Bruins were 10.5-point favorites here, but 4 turnovers did them in.

Arizona 59  Arizona St.  23:  Here is a thumbnail sketch of how this game went down:

• Arizona Offense = 619 yards (527 yards passing)
• Arizona St. Offense = 306 yards (82 yards passing)

Michigan 30  Ohio St.  24:  Michigan and Iowa will play for the Big-10 Championship.  Ohio St. outgained Michigan by 40 yards in the game.  The Buckeyes had the ball and were driving in Michigan territory in the final minute, but an INT by Michigan put an end to that threat.

Iowa 13  Nebraska 10:  The Total Line for this game closed at 24.5 points and the game still went UNDER !!!

Northwestern 45  Illinois 43:  With this result, the Illini fall 2 points short of bowl eligibility…

Georgia 31  Georgia Tech 23:  Georgia led 31-13 to start the 4^th quarter but Tech made a game of it coming within one score with about 4 minutes left in the game.

Alabama 27  Auburn 24:  Two weeks ago, Auburn lost at home to New Mexico St. by 3 TDs; this week it took an Alabama TD in the final minute of the game to cost Auburn a huge upset.  Georgia and Alabama will play for the SEC Championship this weekend.

LSU 42  Texas A&M 30:  LSU QB, Jayden Daniels put on a show here:

• 16 of 24 for 235 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs – – PLUS – –
• 11 rushing attempts for 120 yards and 0 TDs.

The two offenses were very efficient; the teams combined to go 14 of 27 on third-down conversions and 4 of 6 on fourth-down conversions.

Tennessee 48  Vandy 24:  Vandy finishes the year with a 2-10 record.  The Commodores have only had 3 winning seasons in football since 1982.

Florida St.  24  Florida 15:  The Seminoles remain undefeated for the year at 12-0 and Florida finishes with a 5-7 record meaning no bowl game for the Gators for the first time since 2017 and only the second time since 1986.

Kentucky 38  Louisville 31:  That is only the second loss of the year for Louisville, but it means that only Florida St. from the ACC has any hope of being in the CFP this year.  Louisville and Florida St. will square off this weekend for the ACC Championship.

Syracuse 35  Wake Forest 31:  This win makes Syracuse bowl eligible.  Wake Forest will stay home this year finishing with a 4-8 record.

Clemson 16  South Carolina 7:  The Gamecocks will not play in a bowl game this year for the first time since Shane Beamer took over the program in 2021.  The score was closer than the stat sheet would indicate.  Clemson gained 319 yards on offense and held South Carolina to only 169 yards in the game.

NC St. 39  UNC 20:  The Tar Heels started the season with 6 straight wins; then they lost two games in a row to Virginia and Georgia Tech.  Things seemed back on track after UNC demolished a cupcake opponent and then beat Duke in overtime.  But the season ended with two more consecutive losses to Clemson and then here to NC State.  UNC is bowl eligible with an 8-4 record; NC State finishes the season at 9-3.

San Jose St. 37  UNLV 31.  Three teams finish the season with 6-2 conference records in the Mountain West Conference.  UNLV had already clinched a share of its first conference title regardless of the outcome here, but the Rebels’ loss left UNLV, San Jose State and Boise State in a three-way tie for first place in the conference. A computer algorithm determined that the MWC Championship Game would be between UNLV and Boise St.  San Jose St. presented a balanced offense for the game against UNLV:

• Passing offense = 249 yards
• Rushing offense = 233 yards.

Boise St. 27  Air Force 19:  This result put Boise St. into the computer showdown that decided who plays for the MWC championship.  Air Force started the year with 8 straight wins and finished with 4 straight losses.

Oklahoma 69  TCU 45:  The teams combined for 1127 yards and 54 first downs on offense.  The Sooners only punted once in the game.

Texas 57  Texas Tech 7:  Texas is 11-1 and will play Oklahoma St. in the Big-12 Championship Game.  Texas Tech is a bowl eligible team, but the Red Raiders were outgained 528 yards to 198 yards here.

Old Dominion 25  Georgia St. 24:  Old Dominion trailed 21-7 at the start of the 4^th quarter but rallied to win the game making ODU bowl eligible.  To demonstrate how even this game was, consider:

• ODU Offense = 313 yards   Ga St. Offense = 300 yards
• ODU first downs = 15   Ga St. first downs = 14
• ODU punts = 7   Ga St. Punts = 7
• ODU penalties = 7 for 67 yards   Ga St. penalties = 7 for 60 yards

JMU 57  Coastal Carolina 14:  JMU finishes the year with an 11-1 record in its second season in Division 1-A football.  They are probably the best college football team in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Liberty 42  UTEP 28:  Liberty finishes the year undefeated at 12-0.  They just might be the second-best college football team in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

New Mexico St. 20  Jacksonville St.  17:  New Mexico St. finishes the season with a 10-3 record.  This is a significant turnaround for a football program that was basically asked to leave the Sun Belt Conference in recent years.  This makes 2 winning seasons in a row for New Mexico St. and the last time that happened was in 1966-1967.

UConn 31  UMass 18:  Both teams are now 3-9 for the season.  Are both teams going to be in the SHOE Tournament this year?  Check below to find out…

The SHOE Tournament is a figment of my imagination.  I devised it as a way to determine the worst Division 1-A team of the year.  The acronym “SHOE” stands for Steaming Heap Of Excrement and the tournament field is selected by a committee of one – – me.  The idea is for 8 teams to play one another in a single elimination tournament with a twist.  In the SHOE Tournament, the winner goes home not the loser.  To determine the worst team in the country, it is the loser that must play-on.  And so, without further ado, here are the 8 teams in the SHOE Tournament for 2023 seeded from1 to 8 starting with the team seeded as the worst in the country:

• #1 Kent St. (1-11) – – They are the only team with only one win for the season, and playing in the MAC means they do not face fearsome opponents every week.  By the way, that lone win came at the expense of Central Connecticut St.  They ranked dead last in scoring offense in the country this year at 14.7 points per game.
• #2 Akron (2-10) – – Another MAC team in the field.  Those two wins were over Morgan St. and – – you guessed it – – Kent St.  The Zips averaged all of 16.3 points per game scored.
• #3 Vandy (2-10) – – Yes, playing an SEC schedule is tough.  But Vandy’s two wins were over Hawaii and Alabama A&M back in August and early September.  The Commodores lost their last 10 games giving up 35 points or more in 8 of them.
• #4 East Carolina (2-10) – – Those two wins were against Gardner Webb and Florida Atlantic.  They ranked 128^th in the country in scoring offense at 17.3 points per game despite scoring 44 points in the win over Gardner Webb.
• #5 La-Monroe (2-10) – – The two wins were over Army and Lamar.  Their average margin of defeat for the year was 17.6 points.
• #6 Nevada (2-10) – – The good news is that the two wins were both over Division 1-A teams, New Mexico and San Diego St.  The bad news is that they lost to a Division 1-AA opponent, Idaho.
• #7 UMass (3-9) – – They simply must be in this tournament because they have the worst scoring defense in the country giving up 37.8 points per game.
• # 8 UNC-Charlotte (3-9) – – Two of those three wins were almost gimmees – – South Carolina St. and East Carolina (seeded #4 here).  The other win was over Tulsa who finished the year at 4-8.

Let the games begin …

And before moving on to this week’s action, I want to congratulate the Minutemen of UMass for winning the 2023 Brothel Defense Award given to the team that allows the most points per game in Division 1-A college football.  Why is it the Brothel Defense Award?  Simple.  Everyone scores easily.

• [Aside:  UMass has now won this award twice in the 4-year history of the award.]

 

Games This Week:

 

There are lots of important games this weekend and there is the possibility for the results to create chaos or certainty for the CFP Selection Committee.  Before I get to various scenarios, I think it is important to understand what I believe is the charge to the Selection Committee:

• I believe they are “chartered” to select the 4 BEST teams for the CFP that is to be played in late December/early January.
• That is a different charge than “rewarding” teams that earned a shot to be in the CFP.
• Please keep this distinction in mind later when I am probably going to take an unpopular position as to the teams that should be in or out.

Let me go through a “certainty scenario”:

• Michigan beats Iowa to be the Big-10 Champ.  They’re in
• Georgia beats Alabama to reign over the SEC.  They’re in
• Either Washington or Oregon wins HUGE.  They’re in.
• And then … what?

Even before Florida St. and Louisville take the field for their conference championship game, let me say something that is obverse to what I have been saying in these Football Friday pieces for the last month or so:

• Florida St. using a backup QB is not obviously one of the 4 best teams to be in the CFP this year.  Do you put them in because they “earned it?”
• If Texas beats Oklahoma St. and finishes with only one loss, should the Longhorns fill out the CFP field?
• What consideration should be given to Ohio St. and/or the loser of the PAC-12 Championship Game?
• Alabama?

I know; hundreds of Seminoles’ fans read that and freaked out.  Nevertheless, if my model of the CFP Selection Committee charge is correct, then Florida St. without QB, Jordan Travis, is not one of the best four teams in the country at this point in the season.

But a “certainty scenario” like the one created above only obtains if there are no major upsets this weekend. But suppose upsets were the order of the day this weekend and college football chaos ensues:

• Alabama beats Georgia.  Then, there would be no undefeated team in or around the SEC.  Would the CFP make sense with no SEC representative?
• If you compare “one-loss Alabama” to “one-loss Georgia” to “one-loss Texas”, you have to remember that Texas beat Alabama straight up this year.
• Suppose Iowa beats Michigan 10-9.  Then, what?  Does Florida St. begin to look like one of the best teams in any of these scenarios?

The Selection Committee will take heat regardless of what happens this weekend, but they might be in store for major heat in a chaos scenario.  So, let us now turn to this week’s games:

(Fri Nite)  Oregon – 10 vs Washington (66):  This is the College Game of the Week.  The spread opened at 7.5 points; Oregon is favored despite having lost to Washington earlier this year by a field goal.  Since that first meeting, Oregon has been blowing opponents away while Washington has remained undefeated but has not appeared dominant.  A win for the Huskies will guarantee them a place in the CFP.  The PAC-12 has not been part of the CFP since 2016 and this is the last year of the PAC-12’s existence.  In a Hollywood script, Washington would win this game on the final play.  Given recent performance, I think Oregon is the better team, but I am not comfortable with a double-digit spread.  I may regret this, but I think the Total Line is too high; give me the UNDER in this game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri Nite)  New Mexico St. vs Liberty – 11 (57):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and has risen through 7 points and 10 points which are two common point differences.  Either there has been a lot of money showing up on undefeated Liberty here or the action is so thin that even a few relatively small wagers have moved the line.  The winner will be the C-USA champion; neither of these schools has ever won the conference title.  If Liberty wins and remains undefeated, they might get the New Year’s Day bowl slot that is “reserved” for a team not in a Power-5 conference.  These teams met in the regular season and Liberty won by 16 points.

Oklahoma St. vs Texas – 15 (55):  This line opened at 11.5 points and has been rising all week; one sportsbook this morning has the line at 16 points.  I was surprised to learn that this will be the first time Texas has had a shot at the Big-12 Championship since 2009; to give you an idea how long ago that was, the Texas QB that season was Colt McCoy.  A win for the Longhorns will keep them in the discussion for a CFP slot; Oklahoma St. has 3 losses this year and will not be part of the CFP under any scenario.

Miami (OH) vs Toledo – 8 (44):  The winner is the MAC champion.  These teams met earlier this year with Toledo winning by 4 points.  Toledo has won 11 games in a row after losing the season opener to Illinois.

Boise St. – 3 vs UNLV (59):  The winner is the Mountain West champion.  This is the first time UNLV has played for the title; Boise St. has been in a position to win that title 7 times.  Boise St. scores 32 points per game and averages 208 yards rushing per game.  Those numbers are a bit surprising for a team that is only 7-5 overall this season.  UNLV relies on its passing game which averages 237 yards per game.  UNLV has been a football doormat for a while now; they should be motivated to win this game being played in Las Vegas; I’ll take the Rebels plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

SMU vs Tulane – 4 (47):  The winner here is the AAC Champion; if Tulane wins, it will be their second consecutive conference championship.  Tulane has won 10 games in a row; SMU has won 8 games in a row.  SMU ranks 4^th in the country in scoring average at 41.8 points per game but Tulane only gives up 18.3 points per game.  SMU will be without its starting QB in the game, probably explaining the low Total Line.

Georgia – 5.5 vs Alabama (54.5):  This game is another pupil vs master confrontation.  Nick Saban has beaten Kirby Smart in SEC Championship Games when they have met in the past.  In fact, Georgia has won its last 29 games in a row with the last loss coming at the hands of Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in 2021.

Appalachian St. vs Troy – 5.5 (52):  The winner is the Sun Belt champion because James Madison is not allowed to compete for that honor this year despite an overall record of 11-1.  The one loss for JMU was an OT game that Appalachian St. won by a field goal two weeks ago.

Louisville vs Florida St. – 2 (47.5):  I said above that I do not consider Florida St. to be one of the 4 best teams in the country at this point with their starting QB on the shelf.  However, in the history of the CFP, the Committee has never left out a Power 5 champion who was undefeated for the season.  So, history says that Florida St. is in a “win-and-you’re-in” situation.  The Seminoles average 39 points per game; the Cardinals average 33 points per game; yet the Total Line is only 47.5 points.  That tells you how highly both defenses are regarded.

Michigan – 22 vs Iowa (34.5):  Everyone knows about Iowa’s defensive prowess; here are data to put that in perspective.

• Iowa is dead last in the country in Total Offense per game at 246.3 yards per game.
• The next-to-last team in Total Offense is SHOE team, Kent St. at 270.4 yards per game.
• Nonetheless, Iowa has an overall record of 10-2 for the season.

I do not think this will be a particularly interesting game to watch and none of the numbers here are close to making the game an interesting wagering proposition.  For the record, the line for Iowa’s total score in the game is set at 7.5 points; but if you bet the UNDER, the odds are minus-210.  Wow!

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There is still plenty of time left in the NFL regular season for a team to “get hot”.  However, I also think there is also plenty of time left in the NFL regular season for a team to “stink it up”.  And that sort of thinking makes me wonder if the winner of the NFC South this year could host a playoff game despite having a losing record.

• The Falcons lead the division with a 5-6 record.  With a QB tandem of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heineke, do you trust the Falcons to go 4-2 in the remaining regular season games?
• The Saints also have a record of 5-6.  Big things were expected of the Saints this year with their acquisition of Derek Carr to play QB and those expectations have not come close to being fulfilled.  The Saints also need to go 4-2 for the rest of the regular season to post a winning record.
• The Bucs are 4-7 this morning and would need to win 5 of their last 6 games to have a winning record.  Frankly, the Bucs are closer to being a team that needs a tear-down/rebuild than to a team about to win 5 of 6 games.
• The Panthers cannot post a winning record even if they win out in the regular season – – which they will not do.

I think the NFC South can be won by a team finishing with an 8-9 record; and then, that team will be cannon fodder in the NFC playoffs.

I mentioned above that the Falcons’ QB situation is “less than ideal”.  Just for perspective, the Falcons’ QB tandem is significantly better than the Pats’ QB tandem.  Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe would have to improve by 100% to qualify as a dumpster fire.

And do not get me started on the Jets’ QB situation …

I may have been over my skis in dismissing Jordan Love as a competent NFL QB earlier this year.  My impression in early games was that he was overwhelmed by the skills of NFL defenders; after seeing him in recent games against the Lions and the Chargers, I think he is developing and improving rapidly.  I do not have a firm opinion about “his ceiling”, but I no longer think he is over his head in the NFL.  The Packers have a relatively soft schedule to finish the season; with their record now at 5-6, they could finish at 9-8 – – or even 10-7.  Here is that remaining schedule:

• Vs. Chiefs
• At Giants
• Vs. Bucs
• At Panthers
• At Vikes
• Vs. Bears

Speaking of schedules that set up nicely, consider the Jags’ remining games.

• Vs. Bengals – – no Joe Burrow
• At Browns – – QB uncertain
• Vs Ravens – – tough game
• At Bucs – – record is 4-7 as of this morning
• Vs Panthers – – what a goat rodeo
• At Titans – – record is 4-7 as of this morning.

The Jags are now 8-3 on the season; looking at that schedule, a final record of 12-5 looks highly probable.

The NFL and its broadcasting partners have agreed to permit schedule flexing late in the season; such flexing allows for important games to be put in prime TV time slots.  Until now, the only flexing has involved moving games on a given day to a different starting time.  That is going to change in Week 15 of this year:

• MNF was originally scheduled to be Chiefs/Pats.  As of today, that game does not look as if it will be very competitive even if you chant the mantra of “On any given Sunday – – or Monday …”
• So, the NFL is going to move the Eagles/Seahawks game from Sunday to Monday night and put that game on ESPN.  The Chiefs and Pats will play on Sunday that weekend in the 1:00 PM ET time slot.

Just to keep you abreast of a running storyline here, Sam Howell has now been sacked 54 times in 12 games which projects to a season total of 76.5 sacks.  The all-time NFL record is 76 sacks in a season.  Stay tuned…

So let me review what happened last week:

Dolphins 34  Jets 13:  Can everyone now take a deep breath and allow themselves to conclude that Zach Wilson was not THE cause of the Jets’ offensive stench in 2023?

• Jets Total Offense = 159 yards

Here is Tim Boyle’s stat line – – playing behind an OL that might not be able to find work as piano movers should the Jets cut them loose:

• 27 of 38 for 179 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
• That is 6.6 yards per completion and 4.7 yards per attempt.

I don’t care how good the Jets’ defense is; that sort of offensive output will not lead to team success.  The Jets’ offense is not stuck in low gear; it is stuck in reverse; the Jets’ offense was an embarrassment here.

Packers 29  Lions 22:  The Lions have a 50-year tradition of screwing up anything that seems to be “success”.  Is this game a harbinger of a return to that status?  For a team comfortably leading their division and one that some folks think should be in the NFC Conference Championship Game, the first half performance here was as relaxing and pleasing as an atonal symphony created by Igor Stravinsky might have been to Mozart’s audiences.  The Packers were in control of the game from the start; they took advantage of 3 lost fumbles by Jared Goff including one that turned into a “Scoop-and-Score”.  The Lions made this a one-score game with less than a minute to play – – and then reverted to “Lions football”.  Clearly, an onside kick was in the offing – – but the Lions were lined up in an illegal formation on that onside kickoff attempt.

Cowboys 45  Commanders 10:  The game was actually close enough at halftime for Commanders’ fanboys to think about a miracle finish by the hometown heroes that pulled out a win in the final moments.  Not happening!  The second half score was:

• Cowboys  25
• Commanders   0
  

The Commanders produced some good news and some bad news on the stat sheet for offense:

• Third down conversions for Commanders = 7 of 15    Good News!
• Fourth down conversions by commanders = 0 of 3  Not Good News!
• Commanders turned the ball over only once.  Good News!
• That turnover by the Commanders was a Pick-Six.  Not Good News!

I ran across this stat but did not record where I found it, but it is worth noting:

Over the last 25 years, NFL teams have gone 57-0 when they have posted these stats in a game:

• 100+ yards rushing
• 250+ yards passing.
• 35:00+ time of possession
• Fewer than 25 yards in penalties – – AND – –
• Fewer than 2 turnovers.

The Commanders did all that on Thanksgiving Day and lost by 5 TDs.  Amazing…

Niners 31  Seahawks 13:  This game was not nearly as close as the score might indicate.  The Niners were the dominant team on the field from start to finish.

Titans 17  Panthers 10:  Brice Young and Will Levis – – two rookie QBs – – had the same game here:

• 18 of 31 for 194 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs  (Young)
• 18 of 28 for 185 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs  (Levis)

Giants 10  Pats 7:  What a train-wreck of a game …  I got to see Tommy DeVito, Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe try to play the role of an NFL QB.  The Pats’ QB tandem averaged 3.7 yards per pass attempt and they threw 3 INTs for the day – – the last INT late in the 4^th quarter set up the Giant’s winning field goal.  Meanwhile, the Giants’ QB was sacked 5 times in the game.  Phew …

Jags 24  Texans 21:  the Jags held on for the win when a 58-yard field goal try in the final seconds hit the crossbar but did not bounce through the goal posts.  Both QBs put on a show in this game:

• 23 of 38 for 364 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT  (Lawrence)
• 26 of 36 for 304 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs  (Stroud)

The Texans ran the ball effectively in the game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Falcons 24  Saints 15:  The Falcons are now tied with the Saints in the NFC South; both teams are 5-6 with the Bucs only one game behind them.  One of these teams will win this division but I have little interest in watching them figure out who it will be.  The stat sheet for this game was basically a dead heat.  Derek Carr threw for 304 yards for the Saints but never found the end zone; the Saints scoring consisted of 5 field goals for the game.

Steelers 16  Bengals 10:  Well, it finally happened.  The Steelers got a new play-caller and a new offensive coordinator and then they generated 421 yards on offense in the game.  Considering that the Steelers’ defense held the Bengals to only 222 yards on offense, the score here is surprisingly close.  The Bengals had Joe Burrow on the sidelines in street clothes and the product on the field showed his absence:

• Bengals’ time of possession was 22:43
• Bengals ran only 41 offensive plays in the game.
• Bengals were only 2 of 10 on third-down conversions.

Colts 27  Bucs 20:  Jonathan Taylor ran for two TDs for the Colts; Mike Evans caught 2 TD passes for the Bucs.  In terms of other offensive happenings, it was to the Colts advantage; they outgained the Bucs by 96 yards in the game.  The Colts’ record is 6-5 putting them 2 games behind the Jags in the AFC South and if the playoffs started this weekend, the Colts would be the 7^th seed in the AFC.

Broncos 29  Browns 12:  The Broncos have now won 5 games in a row; that streak is tied with the Eagles for the longest current winning streak in the league.  The stat sheet makes this game appear to be a nail-biter on the scoreboard, but it was a comfortable win for the Broncos.  The Browns lost QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson to concussion protocol and then Myles Garrett to a shoulder injury.  If both are lost for any period of time, the Browns’ season may be circling the drain.

Eagles 37  Bills 34 (OT):  This was another ugly win by the Eagles – – but there are no style points awarded in the NFL.  Consider these stat comparisons:

• Bills’ Total Offense = 505 yards   Eagles’ Total Offense = 378 yards
• Bills’ Time of Possession = 40:30  Eagles’ Time of Possession = 26:53
• Bills’ third-down conversions = 13 of 22  Eagles’ third-down conversions = 4 of 11
• Bills ran 92 plays   Eagles ran 65 plays.
• Bills committed 1 turnover   Eagles committed 2 turnovers.

Not only did this game somehow go to OT, but the Eagles also came away with a victory. A playoff slot for the Bills is questionable – – but not impossible.  The Bills are 6-6 putting them half a game behind the Colts (6-5) for the 7^th playoff slot in the AFC. Also, the Texans and the Broncos are 6-5 and lead the Bills via tiebreakers.  However, if Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense can play each week like they did against the Eagles, the Bills will be a playoff team.

• [Aside:  It might be a good idea for the Bills to avoid any more OT games as they try to make a run to the playoffs.  Josh Allen has been in 6 OT games in his career and the Bills’ record in those games is 0-6.]

Chiefs 31  Raiders 17:  The Raiders raced off to a 14-0 lead with 12 minutes to play in the second quarter.  After that, the Raiders could only manage a field goal while the Chiefs scored 31 points.  The Chiefs’ offense gets all the attention, but the Chiefs’ defense has now held 11 consecutive opponents to 24 or fewer points.  The Chiefs’ defense shut down the Raiders’ offense in the second half, holding them to 113 yards.

Ravens 20  Chargers 10:  This game was in doubt until late in the 4^th quarter; the Ravens lead was only 13-10 when Zay Flowers took a jet sweep handoff and ran 37 yards for a TD with a minute and a half left on the clock.  The Chargers are now in last place in the AFC West.

 

Games This Week:

 

Six teams have the week off:

1. Bears:  Not sure too many people will even notice that they are not playing.
2. Bills:  Need to shake off that heart-breaking loss to the Eagles last week.
3. Giants:  Need to figure out how to score; they have scored the fewest points in the league.
4. Raiders:  Record on the road is 1-5; how to fix that?
5. Ravens:  All they need is some R&R and time to heal some injuries.
6. Vikes:  Can they hang on to the playoff slot they have in hand as of today?

In last night’s game, the Cowboys beat the Seahawks 41-35.  The oddsmakers had the game pegged as a low-scoring event; the Total Line closed at 47.5 points.  The game went OVER with 10 minutes left in the third quarter.  The two teams combined for 819 yards of offense.  Both QBs put on a show for the fans:

• 29 of 41 for 299 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs (Dak Prescott)
• 23 of 41 for 334 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT (Geno Smith)

If you are an aficionado of the punting game, this was not a game of interest for you; neither team punted even once.

There is a surfeit of mediocre matchups this week; I had to sift through 4 games to find the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  One interesting feature of this week’s card is that there are 12 games:

• Road teams are favored in 7 games.
• Home teams are favored in 5 games.

Chargers – 5 at Pats (40):  Call this the Underachievement Bowl.  Both teams find ways to lose games.  It’s a long way to Tipperary – – and it’s a long way from LA to Foxboro.  To what end…?

Lions – 4 at Saints (47):  I am tempted by the OVER here because the Lions’ defense has been porous of late.  But I just do not trust the Saints after last week where they could not score a TD and had to kick 5 field goals to get on the scoreboard.

Falcons – 2 at Jets (33.5):  Desmond Ridder will be the best QB on the field in this game.  What a joy!  This was my runner up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Cards at Steelers – 5.5 (41):  Is last week’s offensive eruption by the Steelers sustainable?  If so, the Steelers should cruise to a win here.

Panthers at Bucs – 5 (37): This is the Dog Breath Game of the Week.  The Bucs are not a good team; the Panthers are awful.  Be thankful if you are not in a viewing area where this game is telecast.

Colts – 1 at Titans (42.5):  This game is just blah! If you like trends:

• Titans are 4-1 at home this year.
• Colts are 4-1 on the road this year.
• Titans are at home and Colts are on the road.
• Good luck with that.

Dolphins – 10 at Commanders (49):  I think both teams can score on the opposing defense.  There is no way I want to take the Dolphins on the road as a double-digit favorite, but I have no trouble seeing them engage in a track meet with the Commanders.  I’ll take this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Broncos at Texans – 3.5 (47):  The Texans are a pleasant surprise as a team this year with a record above .500 as December starts.  CJ Stroud has been amazing.  That said, the Broncos are on a 5-game winning streak that has all but erased the memory of the 70 points they surrendered to the Dolphins earlier this year.  I think the wrong team is favored here so I am happy to take the Broncos plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Niners – 3 at Eagles (48):  This is so obviously the Game of the Week.  The spread opened the week with the Eagles as 1-point favorites but that favorite quickly shifted and the line has been steady at this number for a couple of days.  Make time on your schedule to tune into this game as the national game in the late afternoon time slot.

Browns at Rams – 3.5 (40):  Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a concussion last week; will he play this week?  Myles Garrett hurt his shoulder last week and was wearing a sling during the week; will he play this week?  Both teams need this game as both are playoff aspirants but there are too many question marks to make this a wagering proposition.

(Sun Nite) Chiefs – 6 at Packers (42):  The Packers have extended rest for this game having played on Thanksgiving last week.  As noted above, Jordan Love has been improving of late, but his positive showings have been against the Chargers and the Lions.  The Chiefs’ defense is better than either of those defenses, so it will be interesting to see how he does here.

(Mon Nite) Bengals at Jags – 8.5 (39):  I watched Jake Browning in his start last week at home against the Steelers and I was unimpressed.  Now the Bengals are on the road to play another tough defense.  The Jags have an “inverted record” so far in 2023:

• Jags at home are 3-3
• Jags on the road are 5-0

Nevertheless, I do not think the Bengals can hang with the Jags here; I’ll take the Jags and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• UNLV +3 against Boise St.
• Oregon/Washington UNDER 66
• Broncos +3.5 against Texans
• Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49
• Jags – 8.5 over Bengals

And here is a Money Line Parlay just for fun:

• Jags @ minus-400
• Chargers @ minus-240
• Lions @ minus-200       $100 wager to win $166.

Finally, since I began this rant with a reference to Albert Einstein, let me close with another of his musings:

“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, a story broke indicating that Sports Illustrated – – known commonly as “SI” – – had published articles generated by Artificial Intelligence – – known commonly as “AI” – – and much of the sports journalism world went bonkers.  Inside the magazine itself there was a virtual all-hands meeting generating a lot of venting of spleen.  It turns out that not only were the articles generated by AI, but they were also published under fictitious bylines.  Here is some of what the mavens at SI put out in a statement designed to “clear things up”:

“Today, an article was published alleging that Sports Illustrated published AI-generated articles. According to our initial investigation, this is not accurate.

“The articles in question were product reviews and were licensed content from an external, third-party company, AdVon Commerce. A number of AdVon’s e-commerce articles ran on certain [of our] websites. We continually monitor our partners and were in the midst of a review when these allegations were raised.

“AdVon has assured us that all of the articles in question were written and edited by humans. According to AdVon, their writers, editors, and researchers create and curate content and follow a policy that involves using both counter-plagiarism and counter-AI software on all content. However, we have learned that AdVon had writers use a pen or pseudo name in certain articles to protect author privacy – actions we strongly condemn – and we are removing the content while our internal investigation continues and have since ended the partnership.”

Sports Illustrated used to be the paragon of sports publications.  It was birthed in the 1950s by the same folks who provided the country with Time and Life magazines.  SI did reporting; SI did investigations; SI dealt with serious issues; SI did “spoof pieces”.  It was the best – – the emphasis here is on the word “was”.  Magazines have been a medium in decline for a couple of decades now, but SI began its decline well before many other publications.  I don’t know why, but over a short period of time in the 1980s, SI went from being in the “must-read-it-every-week” category to being in the “ho-hum” category.  Maybe the emergence of ESPN on cable networks rendered some of the content in SI as “old news”; I must leave those sorts of analyses to historians and journalists.

I mention this because stories like the one that hit the streets earlier this week cannot be beneficial to a magazine that is clearly on the backburner of focus for sports fans.  Someone asked me about a year ago which sportswriters were on my “Mount Rushmore”.  Two of the four were regulars in Sports Illustrated back in its heyday.  Now, if/when I read something in SI – – or on SI.com – – I have to wonder where it came from and who “wrote” it.  That was never the case back in the day; the fact that it is now forever the case renders Si to a category of publications closer to Weekly World News than to the Washington Post.

So, we learned this week that SI and AI have some sort of intersection.  What’s next?  Is there a scandal to be brought to the fore where we learn that some of the models in the famous Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue have used AE – – Artificial Enhancement?  Perish the thought…

Switching gears …  It is commonplace to observe that the NFL is a “copycat league”.  Indeed, when a player, coach or a team innovates successfully, others rush to emulate that innovation and thereby spread it around to other teams.  Well, the NFL had its first in-season firing of a head coach at the start of November and its second in-season firing of a head coach at the end of November.  So, the question in my mind separates into two parts:

1. Is this a trend that other teams are going to copy?
2. If so, which teams might consider firing which coaches?

Let me assume for a moment that we have not seen the last of the NFL’s in-season firings for the 2023 season.  There are plenty of coaches in jobs now who must look in the mirror in the morning and wonder about their long-term job security.  I want to think here about those whose job-security might be in the very short term and not in the long term.  To avoid any idea that I am prioritizing here, let me put the coaches in alphabetical order:

• Dennis Allen:  His teams over the last two seasons have underachieved but they have the same record as their division leader this morning – – so he will not be fired before the end of the season.
• Bill Belichick:  There are lots of stories about how he might be moving on from the Pats, but I cannot see Robert Kraft firing him before the end of the season.
• Matt Eberflus:  There are bigger questions related to the Bears than whether Eberflus should be fired prior to the first week in January.  Presumably the Bears’ braintrust is occupied with other issues.
• Ron Rivera:  He is not likely to be fired in-season; he certainly ought to be relieved of his GM duties about 30 minutes after the end of the regular season; and by then, the new owners of the Commanders should have decided on whether to keep him as the head-coach,
• Robert Saleh:  He should not be fired at all; the Jets’ problems are roster construction and not coaching.  But Woody Johnson has been known to make snap decisions so you cannot rule this one out.
• Arthur Smith:  His team is an uninteresting 5-6 so far in 2023 – – but it is in first place in the NFC South.  He will not be an in-season firing.
• Brandon Staley:  I said in early September he was a coach on a hot seat; he has a decent roster, and the team has underachieved.  If any owner decides to go “copycat”, I think Staley is vulnerable.

I do not think any of the coaches above need to be replaced before the end of this season even though I do believe some of them will be out of work come the off-season.  But to lay all my cards on the table, I never saw the firing of Frank Reich after only 11 games in Carolina as even a remote possibility.  So, there …

Finally, some words about coaching and coaching contracts from former Clemson head football coach, Frank Howard:

“I had a lifetime contract, but the administration declared me dead.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I have a hodgepodge of things to rant upon today so let me begin with a note from a friend who loves to come up with arcane stats and sports happenings.  He sent along an email with two such items that I think are interesting enough to pass along.  Notice I said they were “interesting”; I assign little if any “importance” to them:

• If Tony Gwynn had extended his career and gone 0 for his next 1199 at bats, he would still have retired with a .300 career batting average.
• In 2023, NFL teams are 40-129 when trailing at halftime.  The Eagles are 5-0 while the rest of the league is 35-129.

Next … The numbers are in and the NFL TV ratings for Thanksgiving Day set a record for that Holiday.  The average TV audience across all three games was 34.1 million viewers.  The previous record was set on Thanksgiving Day in 2022 at 33.6 million viewers so the audience was up by 1.5%.  As usual, the second game of the day – – the one involving the Dallas Cowboys – – drew the largest audience; this year it averaged 41.8 million viewers even though the outcome was not in doubt for a large portion of the game.

Keep the magnitude of these numbers in mind the next time you read about how football is dying because of the scourge of CTE that affects its players.  Pay particular attention to reports about TV audiences on Christmas Day this year.  The NBA will present 5 games on Christmas Day starting at noon ET; the league has scheduled 5 quality games for the day.  The NFL will also be on TV on Christmas Day starting at 1:00 PM ET; the league will present two divisional games and a night game with two strong teams on the field.  My guess is that the NFL audience will be triple the size of the NBA audience.

Tangentially …  Speaking obliquely about the NBA, raise your hand if you already knew that the inaugural in-season tournament has concluded its group round and has entered the knockout round.  If you are a Washington Post subscriber, you would not have followed the group phase easily since the group standings were not included in the paper’s “Scoreboard” entry where standings and stats are aggregated.  So, how many of you know:

• How many teams graduate from the group phase to the knockout round?
• Can you name half of them?
• Were those names a guess based on who you think are the “good teams” as opposed to the “bad teams?
• When/where will the final game for the in-season tournament be played?

Answers below.

Moving along …  A report yesterday said that the University of Delaware was going to pay a $5M “Application Fee” to be able to move up from Division 1-AA football to Division 1-A football in 2025.  Delaware would join C-USA and play football with the big guys.  I have three reactions here:

1. I had no idea a school needed to pay an “Application Fee” to jump from one level to another, so now my question is why do they need to do that and to whom does Delaware make out the check?
2. Other teams in C-USA include New Mexico St., UTEP, Sam Houston and Florida International.  That seems like a lot of traveling for the Blue Hens and no immediately obvious “natural rivalries”.
3. Delaware had been in the Division 1-AA playoffs 4 times in the last 6 years including 2023; they play a second-round game this weekend against Montana.  However, Delaware’s one meeting with a Division 1-A school this year was a 63-7 loss to Penn State.  There is roster building to be done in Newark, DE…

Switching gears …  Nature abhors a vacuum.  Evidently, so does baseball.  With the move of the Oakland A’s to Las Vegas all but accomplished – – they still have a stadium to build there – – baseball is already slated to fill the void for Oakland baseball fans.  The city will get a minor league team in the Frontier League which will be called the Oakland Ballers and will be abbreviated as the Oakland B’s.  Two things here:

1. Calling the team the Oakland B’s is sort of clever given that the departing team was known as the A’s.  However, if/when the B’s stink out the joint, it will be easy to call them “The Plan B’s” with references to abortion and other unsavory imagery.
2.  Speaking of stinking out the joint, that is what the A’s have basically been doing to Oakland baseball fans for most of the last decade.  So, maybe the change in the level of play will not be so hard for fans to accept when the B’s take the field.

In announcing the creation of the Oakland Ballers, the team – naturally – issued a statement defining the team and its commitment to Oakland.  In part, that statement said:

“Unlike the A’s, the B’s vow to never leave town.  The Oakland B’s will be for Oakland, by Oakland, and forever in Oakland. The Oakland B’s believe that sports teams should serve their communities—not the other way around.”

The phrase “forever in Oakland” sounds great but could come back to haunt the team founders.  Forever is about as far into the future as the Twelfth of Never – – and Johnny Mathis reminded us that the Twelfth of Never is a “long, long time”.

As indicated, here are the answers to the questions about the NBA in-season tournament:

• Eight teams come out of the group phase and play in the knockout round.
• They are the Suns/Lakers, Pelicans/Kings, Knicks/Bucks and Celtics/Pacers.
• The final game of the tournament will be played in Las Vegas on December 9^th.
• So, now you know…

Finally, just because I want to do so, I’ll close today with an observation by Bill Watterson – – the creator of Calvin and Hobbes:

“Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists somewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The news yesterday of the firing of Frank Reich made me realize that we are in the midst of the football coaching equivalent of musical chairs.  Jobs are open; coaches are available; when the music stops some will have head coaching jobs and some will not.  I want to talk about two coaching situations today.

Frank Reich lasted all of 11 games with the Panthers before the impatience of owner David Tepper came to the fore.  Tepper hired Reich during the last round of coaching musical chairs with the idea that the Panthers would draft a young QB, and that Reich would be that QB’s tutor/mentor and would develop the youngster into a franchise QB.  Then the Panthers traded away a boatload of picks and their best WR to secure the overall #1 pick in the draft assuring that they would get “the guy they wanted”.  Nothing wrong with that plan – – save for the fact that it got off to the rockiest start imaginable with the Panthers losing 10 of their first 11 games this year.

David Tepper bought the Panthers in 2018 when the team’s founder, Jerry Richardson, was encouraged to sell the team.  Tepper’s background is as a hedge fund manager and an entrepreneur; I have never met David Tepper, but I get the vibe from him and his actions that he believes his experience managing market funds and businesses imbues him with the expertise needed to run a winning football program/team.  [Aside:  Danny Boy Snyder had a similar self-perception.]  So far, that belief has not borne fruit:

• Since Tepper bought the team in 2018, the Panthers cumulative record is 30-63.
• The team has not had a winning season since then.
• Tepper fired Ron Rivera in 2020 and Matt Rhule in 2022 before firing Reich yesterday.

The choice of the person to take the job as interim-head coach is interesting.  Chris Tabor was the special teams’ coordinator for the Panthers this year and he will step up and become the interim-head coach.  Tabor is 52 years old and has one year of head coaching experience back in 2001 at Culver-Stockton College – – a Division III football program.  Knowing nothing about Chris Tabor, I am in no position to have an opinion on his qualifications as an interim-head coach in the NFL – – but I will note that David Tepper passed over someone on the Panthers’ payroll who has had NFL head coaching experience in the person of Jim Caldwell.  Play-calling duties will fall to the team’s offensive coordinator and Caldwell will be the offensive coordinator’s “special assistant”.

I am nowhere near ready to declare that rookie QB, Bryce Young, is a bust because he has a sub-par offensive line in front of him and no outstanding players at the so-called skill positions.  The problem is that the Panthers gave up 4 high draft picks to get the overall #1 pick that became Bryce Young so they are not likely to be in a position to build around Young via the draft.  The next coach for the Panthers will inherit a bag of problems.

However, the next coach also stands to be able to command a lucrative contract.  Matt Rhule got a 7-year deal reportedly worth $63M; Reich reportedly has $9M per year coming to him for the next three years.  And as I contemplated the situation in Carolina, I was struck with the parallel that can be drawn to the situation at Texas A&M at the collegiate level.

Recall that Jimbo Fisher was relieved of his duties as the head coach of the Aggies a few weeks ago and his total buyout was $75M – – not as a lump sum but paid out through 2031.  The Aggies have hired Fisher’s permanent replacement – – Mike Elko who was the head coach at Duke for the past couple of years but who was the Aggies’ defensive coordinator under Fisher before Fisher fell out of favor in College Station.  It seems to me that Elko and the next Panthers’ head coach can relate to each other:

• Both will have demanding superiors with exalted expectations.  Tepper wants to win a Super Bowl; the Aggies Board of Regents wants to win a national championship.
• Both will answer to superiors who want results quickly; there will be little tolerance for annual incremental improvement.
• Both men will have to upgrade their rosters significantly in order to get on a path that will lead to the exalted expectations of their superiors.
• Both men will be well-compensated for their efforts.

What fans of the Panthers and the Aggies should keep in mind to avoid the trauma of dashed exuberance is that the folks making the hiring decisions right now are the same folks who made the previous hiring decisions that did not work out so well.  There is euphoria in Aggie-land about now; fans are thrilled; alums are thrilled; the Athletic Department is thrilled.  And everything will stay in that joyful zone until the Aggies’ team has to climb over the entirety of the SEC which will jettison its division structure starting in 2024.  Just for the opportunity to compete in the CFP, the Aggies will need to surpass inter alia:

• Alabama
• Georgia
• LSU
• Oklahoma
• Texas

The Panthers would seem to have an easier path to the NFL playoffs – – if they can strike gold with lower round draft picks and if they can convince a top-shelf free agent or two to come to Charlotte and play for the Panthers.  However, neither situation involves a superhighway straight shot toward the lofty objectives.

Finally, since today has been about football coaches, let me close with this observation from Vince Lombardi:

“The only place that ‘success’ comes before ‘work’ is in the dictionary.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am going to plunge into the deep end of the pool this morning where the water is well over my head, so do not apply fine-grained analysis to some of the points here.  The English Premier League has financial rules; here in the US, several sports also have “financial rules”, and we often call them “salary caps”.  According to reports, Everton FC has run afoul of one of the financial rules and will incur punishment.

As I understand it, the financial rule that Everton violated is:

• EPL clubs are allowed to lose money but when they do lose money it has to be limited.  Clubs can only lose a total of £105M in any 3-year period.
• Everton FC supposedly lost £124.5M between 2019 and 2022.

This rule is in place to assure “financial sustainability” for the clubs and presumably to limit the ability of super-rich owners from dominating the league because the super-rich owners might not care about losses in that range.  Somehow, the folks who run the show at Everton missed the mark here.

Interestingly, the punishment that has been handed down is one that would never happen in the US.  Everton FC will be docked 10 points in the standings this year and that might mean relegation out of the Premier League.  [Aside:  Recall that Everton has been in the EPL since the league was created in the mid-90s and the last time Everton was not in the top league of English football was in 1951.]

That penalty made me stop and think about it on three levels:

1. A club has lost “too much money” over the past 3 seasons to meet financial sustainability criteria; and so, the punishment inflicted would potentially decrease revenues to the club if it resulted in relegation.  The difference in revenue streams for teams in the EPL versus the Championship – – one league down from the EPL – – can amount to millions of pounds per year; so, it would seem to me that the EPL does not care about the “financial sustainability” of clubs in other tiers of English football.
2. The punishment seems to me to be disproportionately aimed at people who had nothing to do with the violation.  The loss of points in the standings that might lead to relegation is a punishment inflicted on fans and to some extent on the city of Liverpool where Everton resides.  The fans could see their heroes kicked down a level; the fans had nothing to do with the violations; the players are only secondary causes for the “excessive losses” based on their contracts with the club.  Nevertheless, fans take a hit for something they had nothing to do with.
3. The city of Liverpool could easily suffer agita as well if Everton is relegated.  People go to Liverpool to see Everton play EPL games; when they do that, those people spend money in Liverpool generating tax revenues for the city and providing jobs for people in Liverpool who then pay taxes on their incomes.  The “town council” – – or whatever it is called in Liverpool – – was not a party to the actions that created these “excessive losses”, but the town council will pay a penalty anyway.

It seems to me that the individual most responsible for the rules violation is the owner of the club – – a man named Farhad Moshiri. The problem facing the EPL in this situation – – and probably in any similar situation that could obtain in the future – – is that punishing the owner is extremely difficult.

• This man owns and runs a business that has lost £124.5M ($156M) over a three-year period.  So, how much might the EPL have to fine him as punishment for his violation of their rules for it to be meaningful?

The EPL has inflicted teams with points deductions in the past, but this 10-point deduction would be the largest one ever.  As it stands now, Everton was 5 points clear of relegation prior to the penalty but now is tied with Burnley at the bottom of the EPL Table.  There is still plenty of time for Everton to climb out of this hole; there are still 25 games left for Everton to play in the 2023-2024 season, but the fact that Everton may not suffer relegation has not dampened fan reaction.  And fan reaction to this is spreading because there are other alleged “financial irregularities” under investigation for at least two other EPL clubs – – Chelsea and Manchester City.

Some folks in the UK are calling for some sort of government oversight mechanism to regulate and enforce EPL rules.  I really do not have any way to assess how that might work in a European society, but I would shudder to think of a Federally created overseer of sports here in the US.  Here the overseers would create a bunch of rules and then try to justify them and enforce them when – – in fact – – many of the rules are there only to have rules in place to monitor.  [Aside:  Is that beginning to sound like the NCAA minus the Federal imprimatur to “go forth and do good”.]  Then, the overseers would have to present themselves to the Congress – – the body that birthed them – – periodically giving various Congressthings the opportunity to posture and preen.  Maybe government oversight/regulation can work in the UK; I don’t know.  But that would not be the case here in the US.

Finally, since today was about English football – – soccer – – let me close with this simplification of the game attributed to a Welsh footballer, Phil Woosnam:

“The rules of soccer are very simple.  Basically, it is this: if it moves, kick it; if it doesn’t move, kick it until it does.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I live in the nearby suburbs of Washington DC.  Obviously, the sports media in this area are focused on coverage of the Washington Commanders; that is their job.  What I have never come to understand is the inability of the fanboys in this area to see glaring weaknesses on the team even if those weaknesses are fully on display week after week after month.  Those folks universally think that the team is one player or one new coach away from a Super Bowl dynasty.  Let me assure anyone reading this and any Commanders’ fanboy who can purge the adrenaline in his/her system for a moment:

• Such is not nearly the case!

Twelve days ago, the Commanders lost embarrassingly to the Giants 31-19.  Yesterday, the Commanders were given the football equivalent of an atomic wedgie on national TV losing to the Cowboys 45-10.  The cries for head coach Ron Rivera’s and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s heads on plates awee loud and persistent last night – – and that is not a huge surprise.  A report earlier this morning said that Del Rio has been “relieved of his duties” as the defensive coordinator and the immediate reaction among the fanboys is that the team is poised to “make a run”.  Just to be clear:

• Such is not going to happen!

The shortcoming facing the Commanders as a team is an overall talent deficiency.  Said deficiency does not go away when you change a coach or a coordinator.  Yes, it might energize a few players for a game or two, but just as you cannot make a high school student smarter with an “IQ-points injection”, you cannot give adult football players more talent than they have gotten through genetics and practice.

The fundamental problem staring the Commanders in the face is the Commanders’ roster.  Once one recognizes that as the fundamental problem, it should become clear that if there is to be a firing, it should be Ron Rivera as the team’s GM and not necessarily Ron Rivera as the head coach.  I believe the team needs new talent-evaluators – – probably from the most junior person in the scouting department all the way through Ron Rivera as the GM and master of the drafting process.  Consider:

• Rivera got both jobs with the franchise in January 2020.  He has overseen four NFL Drafts for the franchise.
• In those 4 drafts, Rivera & Co. have selected 33 players.  Here is how those 33 draftees worked out:

28 players are still with the Commanders either on the roster or the practice squad.

4 players are still in the NFL on other teams.

1 player is no longer in the NFL.

            Rivera & Co. have drafted 40% of the players on the team and what everyone has seen this season – – and most glaringly in the last two weeks – – is that these players are simply not as good as the players on the opposing squads.  The flaw is in the player selection/retention process.

Back at the trading deadline, the Commanders chose to trade both of their starting defensive ends in order to amass “draft capital”.  So, riddle me this:

• What good is “draft capital” wielded by the same folks that produced the draft results above?
• Memo to Josh Harris and investment partners:  Let really smart “football people” advise you regarding the retention or firing of “Ron Rivera as your head coach” but consider the issue of “Ron Rivera as your GM” a done deal.
• You – – need – – a – – new – – GM.

Moving on …  Later today, the NFL will present its first-ever game on Black Friday.  The game will be the Dolphins at the Jets and it will be available on Amazon Prime Video as a free streaming telecast meaning that fans need not subscribe permanently to Prime Video to see the game.  If this initial foray into “Black Friday Football” is deemed to be a success by Amazon and by the NFL, one should expect that “Black Friday Football” would become a recurring thing.

The basis for this new presentation is – – of course – – money.  Amazon paid the NFL $1B for the rights to stream Thursday Night Football but Amazon would stand to lose one Thursday out of the season because of the traditional Thanksgiving Day telecasts which were negotiated and parceled out to other broadcasters.  So, how to make it up to Amazon?

• Create one each “Black Friday Football” game and sell it to Amazon so that Amazon can link the game to potential new subscribers for Prime Video plus to all the expected online shoppers for the day.

Problem solved.

NFL games on Fridays are rare events but they have been around for a while.  I remember that the old AFL – – prior to the merger with the NFL – – used to have a “Friday game” occasionally.  In recent times, “Friday NFL Football” would only happen to accommodate the calendar around Christmas or New Year’s.  I strongly suspect that we are about to witness the birth of a new “tradition” in the US – – Black Friday Football.

Finally, I will close today with this comment from former NFL defensive tackle, Alex Karras:

“I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms – Truman’s and Eisenhower’s.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………