The Sports Curmudgeon

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 10/9/16

Last week was slightly “profitable” for Mythical Picks; I made 16 picks and the record for the week was 9-7-0. That makes the cumulative season record 38-27-0. That is certainly a better outcome for the first four weeks than many of the NFL teams have experienced.

There were 2 Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games on the card last weekend and the coin did what you would expect a coin to do. The record for the week was 1-1-0 making the season record for the coin 4-2-0.

The Best Picks of the Week were:

The Worst Picks of the Week were:

As I get myself psyched to present another menu of potentially awesome Mythical Picks, I must remind everyone that no one should use anything contained herein as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this weekend – or any other weekend. Here is how dumb you would have to be to do so something like that:

You think “13 Shades of Grey” is the edited-for-TV version of the movie.

General Comments:

To start with, I want to pose a couple of general/philosophical questions here:

2. At what point do Giants’ fans – and the coaches in NY – start to worry about Odell Beckham’s ability to focus on football as opposed to whatever it is that gets under his skin during a game? Beckham lost his focus – and his self-control – once again on Monday nite against the Vikings. It does not help the Giants when the defensive coordinator for the other team cobbles together a defensive strategy that minimizes Beckham’s impact on the game. It is a whole other thing when Beckham minimizes his potential impact on the game all by himself.

The San Diego Chargers are 1-3 this year. In all of their losses, they have had the lead in the 4th quarter and then have coughed up a hairball. Twice that 4th quarter lead was 13 points – as it was last week against the Saints. Here is how they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in that game in a home game in San Diego:

Now leading 34-28 points with 4:50 remaining in the game, after a five-yard gain, wideout Travis Benjamin fumbled on the Chargers’ own 31 and the Saints recovered once again. The Saints scored another TD to take the lead 35-34

San Diego never reclaimed any momentum and lost the game 35-34.

I guess you can find a way to attribute fumbling to poor coaching if you want to do so. In the case of Mike McCoy whose record in San Diego now stands at 23-29 coming off a season of 4-12, my guess is that lots of folks will be amenable to that sort of reasoning and “accountability”.

There is a small bit of irony in that 35-34 final score in the Saints/Chargers game. In Week 1, the Saints lost to the Raiders by a score of 35-34; that was the game where Raiders coach, Jack Del Rio, went for 2 points instead of a tie in the final minutes of the game and the Raiders made the conversion. Then last week, the Saints came out on the winning end of a 35-34 game with a dramatic score in the final minute or so.

Last week’s game between the Broncos and the Bucs was delayed for a little more than an hour due to lightning strikes to the land surface in the vicinity of the stadium in Tampa. This is the second week in a row where there has been a “severe weather delay” in Tampa. Two weeks ago, fans returned to see a down-to-the-wire game where the Rams prevailed 37-32. Last week, fans in Tampa pretty much realized what the game outcome was going to be and the vast majority took the opportunity of the “weather-delay” to find their cars in the parking areas and hightail it on home. The Broncos beat the Bucs 27-7; the game was not in doubt as the players, officials and fans waited out the lightning bolts…

Let me add a third general/philosophical question here:

3. Am I the only one who does not understand what is “taunting” and what is “unsportsmanlike conduct” for “excessive celebration” in 2016? Look, I am not a fan of any sort of celebration on the field by players for doing what they are paid to do – such as score TDs or tackle an opposing player for a loss. I would not care if the league outlawed them with ultra-severe penalties to include suspensions and the like. That will not happen and so we have the situation that obtains today. I believe that if I showed you the “excessive celebrations” that have drawn flags this year intermingled with the “acceptable celebrations” that have not drawn penalties, you would be hard-pressed to identify each celebration in its proper category.

Here are data I ran across related to taunting/excessive celebration/unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in 2016:

Dean Blandino – director for the NFL officials – had this explanation with regard to the interpretation of these sorts of rules in 2016:

“ … the key is that if it’s a gesture that either mimics a violent act – that’s something with a firearm or a bow-and-arrow – or a sexually suggestive act, those are unsportsmanlike conduct. That’s … something officials will flag. That’s direct from the Competition Committee and something we are going to try to be as consistent as possible.”

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 22-7 last week. The game was not really that close; the Bengals defense was dominant. The Dolphins gained a total of 222 yards on offense; the Dolphins were 2-11 on third down conversions; the Dolphins amassed a measly 8 first downs in the game; the Dolphins surrendered 5 QB sacks in the game; the Dolphins possessed the ball for just under 22 minutes in the game. The Dolphins’ lone score came on a first quarter pass that covered 73 yards; after that, their total offense was 149 yards. Here is the Dolphins drive chart for this game:

Bengals’ QB, Andy Dalton, was efficient but not spectacular in the game going 22-31 for 296 yards and 1 TD with O INTs. The fact that the Bengals had to settle for 5 field goals in the game was not a huge plus for the Bengals’ offense…

The Jags beat the Colts in the first NFL London Game last week; that win allows Jags’ coach, Gus Bradley, to keep his job at least for now. A glance at the AFC South standings will give you a clue as to how bad that division is.

The Jags sacked Andrew Luck 5 times in the game and were in his face on the vast majority of pass plays; the Colts’ OL is awful.

Memo to Colts’ Front Office:

If Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay, were fully sentient and engaged at this point, he might start to wonder how it can be that his $140M investment in a franchise QB can be left alone out there to be pummeled around like a speed bag. Too bad the Colts’ Front Office still seems to be patting itself on the back for hanging deflated footballs around Tom Brady’s neck…

The crowd in Wembley Stadium for the Colts/Jags game was a sellout of more than 83,000 souls. Since the NFL can sell out games of this caliber, there is no need for the league to consider sending two good teams to London to play – or to send a major rivalry game there.

The Bills beat the Pats 16-0. It is impossible to find a phase of the game where the Pats played well; they played as if they were sleepwalking. Just as it was an over-reaction after 2 opening season losses to think that Rex Ryan should be fired at that point of the season, it is also an over-reaction to think that he and the Bills have turned the corner now and are on their way to Super Bowl contention if not outright victory.

The Seahawks beat the Jets 27-17 last week. Russell Wilson played on a bad ankle and on a sprained MCL and he played very well indeed. At the end of the first half he was 10 for 11 for 192 yards and 2 TDs. That is a good half of football on two good appendages below the waist. Jets’ QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, struggled again last week finding the opponents with his passes on 3 occasions – all in the second half of the game. Over the last two games, Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 INTs; the Jets are 1-3 including 2 losses at home and the Jets are in danger of falling into oblivion when you look at their upcoming schedule:

I am not saying they are going to do this, but the Jets could be 1-6 as of October 24 with two games against the Patriots still on the schedule. Ouch!

The Falcons beat the Panthers 48-33 last week. With one-quarter of the season behind them, the Falcons are 3-1 and the Panthers are 1-3. Raise your hand if you predicted that back in August; I did not! Matt Ryan is coming off a passing game for 504 yards (300 of them to Julio Jones) and if you extrapolate from these 4 games through 16 games, Ryan will pass for just under 5900 yards this season. As a point of reference, that would break the all-time NFL record for passing yards in a season by about 500 yards.

Here is why I doubt that such an extrapolation is a good idea:

I am not throwing shade on Matt Ryan here. After all, he went to high school about 10 miles as the crow flies from where my parents once lived. I just think it is a tad early to make such projections…

Julio Jones had 300 yards receiving in that game. Only 6 players in the history of the NFL have reached that milestone and only 4 have done it since the merger. Here is a Trivia Question:

A: Flipper Anderson with the LA Rams in the 1980s with 336 yards.

In the game against the Panthers, Jones had catches of 32, 43, 53 and 75 yards. I wonder if the Panthers’ braintrust wished they still had Josh Norman playing DB for them? Even more concerning to the Panthers’ braintrust has to be the fact that Cam Newton is in the NFL’s concussion protocol and that LB Thomas Davis left the game with the Falcons with a “hamstring injury” and could not return to the field. The Panthers cannot afford to lose those two guys for any significant period of time.

The Rams beat the Cards 17-13 last week dropping the Cards to 1-3 – the same record as the Panthers; those were the two teams that faced each other last year in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams improved to 3-1 for the season after a Week 1 loss to the Niners that can best be described as throwing up on their shoes. Unlike the Panthers who have lost only 1 home game, this loss was the second for the Cards at home. For the season, Carson Palmer now has thrown 6 TDs and 5 INTs; that is not the way the Cards’ vertical offense succeeds. The Cards’ offense is not hitting the deep ball at all this year; for the last 2 seasons, that has been the explosive element of the entire offense. Carson Palmer is in the NFL’s concussion protocol as a result of a hit in the second half of this game; the Cards cannot afford to have him out of action or performing at 70% of capacity for very long this year if they intend to play meaningful games in January 2017.

The Rams won this game despite the fact that the Cards’ defense held Todd Gurley to a pedestrian 33 yards rushing. Clearly, the Cards’ game plan was to make the Rams throw the ball to win the game; were I devising a game plan against the Rams, I would probably do the same thing. The problem for the Cards is that Case Keenum threw for 2 TDs – one late in the 4th quarter – and that was enough to win the game.

The Rams have not been a factor in the NFC West for a while now. However, it is interesting to note that the Rams have been competitive within their division in the Jeff Fisher Era. Since Fisher took over the Rams – in St. Louis – the team has gone 13-13-1 against NFC West opponents. The Rams do not do nearly as well outside the division…

The Texans beat the Titans 27-20. Brock Osweiler threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs for the Texans in this game. The 2 TD passes were things of beauty; the 2 INTs were head-slapping, what-in-the -world-were-you-thinking throws. The other young QB on the field in this game, Marcus Mariota, was an unimpressive 13 for 29 for 202 yards and 1 INT. Pretty soon, I may be forced to conclude that Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth offense” is not compatible with the development of a young NFL QB…

The Broncos beat the Bucs 27-7 last week. For the second week in a row, the game in Tampa was delayed for an extended period of time due to air-to-ground lightning strikes in the stadium area. Not surprisingly, the Broncos won on defense:

Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had to leave the game with an injured shoulder in the first half. Paxton Lynch came in and played error-free football to seal the victory. Perhaps the fans in Tampa have learned already what to do in weather-delays. Looking at the replays, I would guess that only about 10,000 fans waited it out and came back to watch the end of this game. The vast majority used the delay to go and find their cars in the parking lots and headed on home.

There was an “interesting” coaching decision in the fourth quarter of this game. Trailing 27-7 with 7:30 to go in the game, the Bucs had the ball 4th and 5 at the Broncos’ 45 yardline. They were down three TDs at that point – – and they punted the football. Seemed to me as I watched the replay that this decision was tantamount to “throwing in the towel”. Even if the Bucs could have forced a 3-and-out, what they could look forward to was to get the ball back with about 6:00 left to play. That would have meant they would have had to score a TD and then get the ball back two more times in order to have a chance to win the game. At 4th and 5 on the other guys’ side of the field with that score, I am going for the first down. If I don’t get it, I will lose the game; if I make it, I will still probably lose the game. But, I am not punting…

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14. This was the 3rd loss in a row for the Lions; this was the Bears’ first win of the year. Neither team is any good. Brian Hoyer threw for 302 yards and 2 TDs; that speaks to the Lions’ defense. All of the Lions’ points here came on special teams (2 field goals, a punt return and a 2-point conversion); that speaks to the Lions’ offense.

The Skins beat the Browns 31-20. Surely, you have seen the “phantom fumble recovery” awarded to the Skins in the second half of this game. It was the officiating blunder of the year and here is how the NFL sought to explain it to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com:

“The on-field ruling was a fumble, recovered by Washington. It was confirmed as a fumble in instant replay without the need to stop the game. As to the recovery, several different angles were looked at, but with nothing definitive shown, there was no need to stop the game because the on-field ruling that awarded possession to Washington would have stood.”

The fact that a Cleveland Brown was holding the ball aloft in his hand as the officials peered into the pile – where there was no football – and decided that it was “Washington ball” had no impact or standing in the decision on the field or in the decision to describe how such a blunder might have occurred. Let me summarize it for you without any spin-doctoring:

The officials blew this call. They should all be named “Monica” after this game.

[Aside: I am not positive about this, but I believe that the referee in charge of this crew is the same one who got the coin toss call wrong in an overtime game involving the Steelers 6 or 7 years ago.]

The NFL – protecting the integrity of the game no doubt – chose not to censure those officials because the game relative to the spread was still well in doubt at the time of the botched call.

The Skins took a 14-0 lead here. The Browns rallied and led 20-17 in the second half and then the Browns morphed into THE BROWNS. They turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions in the second half leading to 14 points and the 11-point margin of defeat.

The Raiders traveled across 3 time zones and beat the Ravens 28-27 in Baltimore. The game was sort of slow early on; at the end of 3 quarters the score was 14-12 in favor of the Raiders. Then the 4th quarter exploded. Michael Crabtree and Derek Carr hooked up for 3 TDs in the game including the game winner. Here are some observations from that game:

The Cowboys beat the Niners 24-17; it really wasn’t that close. The Niners scored TDs on both of their first two possessions; after that the offense was pretty much AWOL. The Cowboys’ rookies won this game for them. Dak Prescott threw for 245 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs while Ezekiel Elliott ran for 138 yards and another TD.

I told you how the Saints rallied to beat the Chargers 35-34 above. Moving on …

The Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 and it was not a game that was in doubt after the first 10 minutes of the first quarter. This was an old-fashioned butt-stomping. The Steelers did just about everything right from the start and the Chiefs did little if anything right from the start. At the end of the first quarter, the Steelers were in command 22-0. I may appear as if the Chiefs played more competitively after the first quarter if all you look at is the score; when you saw the game on TV, that was not the case. Le’Veon Bell returned from his suspension and ran for 144 yards; there was little evidence of any “rust” there.

A significant difference in the offensive philosophies of the Steelers and Chiefs was starkly evident in this game. The Chiefs run a “dink-and-dunk”/rely on run after the catch West Coast offense. That system works; I am not saying it does not. The Steelers run a vertical/throw the ball 35-yards down the field on a routine basis offense. That system also works; I am not saying it does not. On Sunday night, the Steelers’ offense was hitting on all 8 cylinders; the Chiefs’ offense was misfiring much of the time.

The Vikings dominated the Giants 24-10 on MNF last week. I mentioned above how Odell Beckham. Jr. virtually took himself out of the game with his loss of focus/poise during the game. His inability to get open had something to do with Eli Manning’s sub-standard performance of 25-43 for 261 yards in the game. Meanwhile, Sam Bradford gave a workmanlike performance and completed his 3rd full game at QB for the Vikings without committing any sort of turnover. Given the Vikes’ defense, that lack of turnovers is a huge plus for Bradford. Let me put the Vikes’ defense in 2016 in some sort of perspective here. Mike Zimmer arrived in Minnesota in 2014; he inherited a team with a defense that ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed and 32nd in the NFL in points allowed during the 2013 season. Just to clarify; those stats STINK. Here we are in 2016 and the Vikes’ defense is allowing 12.5 points per game and looks good enough to carry the team into the playoffs where anything can happen.

The Giants spent a lot of money on their defense in this off-season and for the first two games is certainly seemed as if those investments were going to pay off. Then the Giants gave 31 points to the Skins two weeks ago and gave 24 to the Vikes here. Perhaps, the Giants’ defense remains a work-in-progress…

The Games:

There are 4 teams on BYE Weeks this time around:

KC gets an extra week to forget about the drubbing they took last week.

New Orleans gets an extra week to practice on defense.

Seattle gets an extra week to get Russell Wilson healthy.

(Thurs Nite) Arizona – 3.5 at SF (43): Carson Palmer left Sunday’s game to enter the concussion protocol; this game will start 4 days after that event. He could not be cleared by the meidics and the team announced on Twitter that Palmer will not make the trip to SF. That means the Cards will have a QB tandem of Drew Stanton and Zac Dysert. As noted above, Palmer has not played well so far this season; nonetheless, he is the starting QB on that team for a reason and that reason is that he is a better QB in 2016 than Drew Stanton or Zac Dysert. The Niners also had a potential injury issue from last weekend. Linebacker, NaVarro Bowman, left the field with a leg injury and did not return. The line here tells me that the oddsmakers foresaw that Palmer would not play. That means a Drew Stanton/Blaine Gabbert game and that looks like a hot mess to me. I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the game to stay UNDER.

Houston at Minnesota – 6 (40): Brock Osweiler is still a work-in-progress and he is still prone to throwing the ball to the other team. The Vikes defense is most adept at taking the ball away from the other side and this is potentially an Achilles’ Heel for the Texans. The Vikes are giving up 12.5 points per game; Houston’s offense is certainly not scary good. I like the Vikes to win and cover here at home.

Tennessee at Miami – 3.5 (44): It was another close call this week, but this one here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Neither team is any good. Both teams have offenses that scare no one. Let me give you some trends that will demonstrate that these teams are not very good:

I will prognosticate that neither offense will do much of anything in this game and so I will take the game to stay UNDER.

New England – 10 at Cleveland (47): I do not expect Tom Brady to be at peak form here – but I do not expect him to trip over his shoelaces either. The Pats stunk it up last week against the Bills and there are too many vets on that team to allow that sort of performance to show up 2 weeks in a row. I like the Pats to win and cover here – even on the road and laying double-digit points.

Jets at Pittsburgh – 7 (48): The Jets are up against it (see above); last week, the Steelers demonstrated that they laid an egg against the Eagles two weeks ago but that they were not going to lay eggs every week. Against the Seahawks last week, the Jets saw lots of free-running Seattle WRs in the secondary. The Seahawks’ WRs are good, but none of them are at the level of Antonio Brown. I think the Steelers will win and cover at home.

Washington at Baltimore – 3.5 (44.5): The Total Line opened at 47; it dropped quickly to 45 and has inched down from there. The Ravens are 3-1 but they are not blowing people out; their biggest margin of victory is 5 points (over the hapless Browns) and their loss last week was by a point. The Ravens played the Browns, Jags and Raiders in the last 3 games and could not demonstrate a consistent offense against that sort of opposition. The Skins’ defense is not great by any means, but it is not stumblebum awful either. I think the oddsmaker was closer to correct setting the Total Line at 47 to begin with; I like this game to go OVER.

Philly – 3 at Detroit (46): Is this the week that Carson Wentz demonstrates his “rookieness”? Is this the week that Matthew Stafford starts to play like a QB that has thrown for more than 5000 yards in a season? Is this the week the Eagles’ defense gives up more than 14 points in a game? Is this the week the Lions’ defense holds a winning opponent under 30 points? If you knew the answer to just about any one of those questions, this game would be an easy pick. The last time the Eagles played in Detroit was on a Thanksgiving Day and they simply stunk out the joint. I smell upset potential here so I’ll take the Lions plus the points.

Chicago at Indy – 4.5 (48): This game was briefly considered for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week but it finished third in that sweepstakes. The NFL Schedule Maven needs to explain why the Colts do not have a BYE week here having just played a game in London. Whatever… Neither team is any good but Andrew Luck is going to be the better QB on the field playing against a not-so-great defense. I’ll take the Colts – ignoring the jet-lag factor – to win and cover at home. Here is a trend that makes me feel comfy with that Mythical Pick:

So there …!

Atlanta at Denver – 6 (47): This is the best game of the week. The Falcons offense has been unreal for the last 3 games scoring 128 points in those 3 wins. Granted, two of the defenses they lit up – Raiders and Saints – are not among the elite defensive units. However, last week they torched the Panthers (see above) and the Panthers’ defense is pretty good. The Broncos’ defense is even better. In no way do I see the Falcons putting 40 points on the board here nor do I see Julio Jones catching 150 yards of passes – half of his output last week – against Aqib Talib in the secondary. However, Matt Ryan is hot and he is a veteran. The Broncos’ QB situation is in doubt until game time when we will find out if Trevor Siemian can go at all in the game. I think the line is fat; I’ll take the Falcons on the road plus the points.

Buffalo at LA – 2 (40): The key question here is a simple one:

After an emotional win against a division rival on the road last week, can the Bills fly 2500 miles or so and play a game without a big letdown?

Last week the Bills were clearly up to play the Pats. This is a non-conference road game after a long flight. So, how will they react? I think the Bills are human and will not play nearly as hard this week. Meanwhile, the Rams won a division game too last week and as noted above, the Rams play much better inside the NFC West than they do outside the division. Will Case Keenum be an efficient game manager here or will he implode? I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Rams and lay the points. Remember, these are Mythical Picks …

San Diego at Oakland – 3.5 (50): I think the Raiders are a much-improved team this year and that the Chargers are – – the Chargers. Before the year started when I was looking at the Raiders’ schedule with 3 “Eastern Games” (Saints, Titans, Ravens) in September, I thought that a 2-2 split was a reach for the team. Well, they came out of that at 3-1 and now can go home to take on the bottom-feeder in the AFC West. Yes, the Chargers have led in the 4th quarter of every game this year – including the three losses on their schedule (see above). But this is not a heavy line for the Raiders to carry. I like the Raiders at home to win and cover. By the way, here is an interesting stat for the Raiders in 2016:

In all 4 games despite their 3-1 record, the Raiders have been the team with less offense than their opponent. Last week for example, the Raiders won the game by 1 point but lost the “Total Offense battle” by 151 yards.

Cincy – 1.5 at Dallas (45): The spread for this game opened with Dallas as a 1-point favorite but it has flipped favorites as the week progressed. The Bengals’ defense is better than what the Cowboys have faced so far this year (Giants, Skins, Bears, Niners). By the same token, the Cowboys can run the ball and control the pace of the game better than teams the Bengals have faced so far this year – the Dolphins for example last week. I expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a good game and I expect AJ Green to give the Cowboys’ secondary fits. I’ll take the Cowboys at home plus the points.

(Sun Nite) Giants at Green Bay – 7 (48): I think the Packers are the better team. The Packers are at home. The Giants are playing on a short week (Monday to Sunday) and had to travel to this game. The Packers had their BYE Week last week. I’ll take the Packers to win and cover at home.

(Mon Nite) Tampa at Carolina (no lines): This game was the runner-up for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. There are no lines here because we do not yet know who will play QB for the Panthers or if Thomas Davis can play. Jameis Winston can be brilliant and/or he can be an interception waiting to happen. This will not be an artistic game. I obviously cannot make a pick on a game where there are no lines but here is what I think will happen:

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Deja Vu Philly 76ers …

I think we have been here before; I think we know how this story plays out. The Philadelphia 76ers had the first overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft and they took Ben Simmons. Now, just as NBA teams were getting set for training camps and exhibition games, Ben Simmons suffered a broken foot; he has undergone surgery on that foot; he will be out for a TBD length of time. The Sixers say they will not “hurry” him back; Simmons’ agent hinted that he might advise Simmons to sit out the entire season.

Let me do a quick review here of the Sixers “prime” acquisitions” in recent off-seasons:

In 2012

In 2013, the Sixers traded to get Nerlens Noel on Draft Night. Noel had torn his ACL during his only year at Kentucky. He did not play at all in his first year in the NBA as he rehabbed from that knee surgery.

In 2013, the Sixers drafted Michael Carter-Williams with their own pick in the draft. Williams won Rookie of the Year – – and then needed shoulder surgery. Halfway through his second season, the Sixers traded him to Milwaukee in a multi-team deal where they essentially got a future draft pick.

In 2014, the Sixers selected Joel Embiid near the top of the NBA Draft. Embiid suffered a stress fracture in his back while at Kansas and then prior to the draft he broke a bone in his foot. That surgery and rehab kept him out all of what would have been his rookie year. That surgery required a second operation and he also missed all of what would have been his second NBA season.

In 2015, the Sixers took Jahlil Okafor near the top of the NBA Draft. Okafor managed to start the season with the Sixers and played a little over half the season before he suffered a partial tear of the meniscus in his knee.

And now, Ben Simmons …

You know, if we did not have the Affordable Care Act on the books, I think health insurance companies might look at players acquired by the Sixers in the off-season and declare that acquisition to be a “pre-existing condition” as a means to increase the premiums for the player’s insurance coverage …

Last week during the run-up to the Bills/Pats game, there was speculation that the Pats might have to play Julian Edelman at QB. Edelman had been a QB in college at Kent State but let me just say that his quarterbacking experience at the NFL level was “meager”. Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week as a way to remind folks that this sort of thing had happened before in NFL history:

“Back in the day: For some of us of a certain age, speculation that receiver Julian Edelman could fill in at quarterback for the Patriots on Sunday recalls the time that Don Shula’s Baltimore Colts, having lost quarterbacks Johnny Unitas and Gary Cuozzo to injury late in the 1965 season, turned to running back Tom Matte. Wearing the NFL’s first play-calling wristband, Matte quarterbacked the Colts to victory over the Rams before Baltimore suffered a playoff loss in overtime to the Packers. Matte’s wristband is displayed in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.”

Like Edelman, Matte had played QB in college at Ohio State but he was a runner and not a thrower. Matte led the Colts to a win over the LA Rams in his first game and then lost in overtime to the Packers in the playoff game that followed that one.

According to this report in the Chicago Business Journal, World Series Fever seems to have reached epidemic proportion in Chicago. The report says that TicketCity – a reseller of event tickets – had the median price for Game 1 of the World Series Game at Wrigley Field at $3900. The median prices for Game 2 and Game 3 were $3800 and $3600 respectively.

If the oddsmakers are to be believed, some of the good folks in Chicago will actually get to shell out that kind of money to see the Cubbies play in the World Series. In addition to bucking the trend of not having won the Series since 1908, the Cubs also need to recognize that only 1 team since 2000 has won the World Series after winning 100 or more games in the regular season – as the Cubs did this year. Nonetheless, here are the odds to win – not just participate in but to win – the World Series as of now:

I think a Cubs/Red Sox World Series would be fun to watch given the potential for offensive fireworks from both teams.

The playoffs got off to a rousing start last night with an 11-inning game in Toronto where the Blue Jays managed to advance to the next level of the playoffs beating the Orioles 5-2 on a monstrous HR by Edwin Encarnation in the bottom of the 11th inning.

Tonight’s game between the Mets and the Giants portrays itself as a battle of pitching titans. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the Mets; he and Madison Bumgarner go at it in this game for the honor of playing the Cubs in the NLDS.

The stats that surprise me for this playoff team are these three taken in juxtaposition:

Finally, here is some data and commentary about another set of baseball stats from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Home runs in Major League Baseball, according to ESPN.com, are up 13.8 percent from 2015 and up 33 percent over 2014.

“What, are they dipping the balls in flaxseed oil or something?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Two Sports Gambling Issues

I must start today with a tip of the hat to Broderick Crawford and his catch phrase on the old TV show, Highway Patrol.

Since yesterday’s rant focused on my position that this is the time to legalize and regulate sports gambling, I want to present two issues here that tangentially related to that. In the past week or so, the IOC found it necessary to channel the words of Baron Pierre de Coubertin – the man who resurrected the Olympic Games – with regard to three boxers from the recent games in Rio. The good Baron once said:

“The day when a sportsman stops thinking above all else of the happiness in his own effort and the intoxication of the power and physical balance he derives from it, the day when he lets considerations of vanity or interest take over, on this day his ideal will die.”

It seems that these three boxers – two Irishmen and one from Great Britain – stopped thinking of the happiness in their own efforts long enough to wager on some of the boxing events that were ongoing. I read the reports here as carefully as I could, but I did not see any indication that the IOC thought that they had bet on the matches that they participated in.

Here are the punishments handed down:

[Aside: If “severe reprimands” were worth more than unit of unicorn upchuck, there would be no crime problems in the world.]

Each boxer – should he be eligible to compete in future Games and should he qualify – will have to show that he followed an educational program established by the IOC. [Translation: They have to take a training course.] The way the IOC thinks about this is that they must actively participate in the educational programs established by the IOC, the Olympic Organizing Committee in either Ireland or the UK and the AIBA which is the international federation that oversees amateur boxing competitions.

The Olympic Committees in Ireland and in the UK were also reprimanded for failing to inform their athletes about the content of all the IOC rules that might apply to them. [Aside: Unless that means those Committees get a smaller share of the various bribes that flow through the Olympic Movement, I doubt that will “leave a mark” on any of those folks.] Moreover, they are directed to do a better job at this sort of “informing” in future Olympiads. [Wow! I bet that stings. Oops, Am I allowed to make a gambling reference here?]

The AIBA does not receive a reprimand here but the IOC puts it on notice that the IOC expects the AIBA to make sure that its regulations for its competitions are congruent with the regulations contained in the Olympic Code. The AIBA is to set up its own education programs and is to inform the IOC of the content of those programs to assure congruency with the Olympic Code.

I know nothing about these 3 boxers other than what is above. If Rio was the end of their amateur boxing career, I doubt that any of the stuff summarized above means anything at all to them. If any of them are turning pro, none of that means anything to them. All of this is great theater and allows the IOC to appear to be on a moral high ground – a place they occupy about as frequently as the Chicago Cubs win the World Series.

If – based on the example above – you have the idea that the “gambling related” items for today are only of marginal importance, you will be happy to know that the second one is about as important as the first one. According to a report last week in the Dayton Business Journal, lawyers representing Pete Rose have sent a letter to the Baseball Hall of Fame asking the Hall of Fame to reconsider Rose’s eligibility for inclusion there.

This issue is a sports version of Whack-A-Mole. As soon as it is bludgeoned out of sight in one venue, it pops up in another. It seems that the basis for this letter for eligibility reconsideration stems from the reconsideration that Commissioner Rob Manfred conducted about a year ago where he chose not to reinstate Rose into baseball. The lawyers have seized upon this statement from Rob Manfred with regard to Hall of Fame eligibility:

“It is not part of my authority of responsibility here to make any determination concerning Mr. Rose’s eligibility as a candidate for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. In fact, in my view, the considerations that should drive a decision on whether an individual should be allowed to work in baseball are not the same as those that should drive a decision on Hall of Fame eligibility. … Thus, any debate over Mr. Rose’s eligibility for the Hall of Fame is one that must take place in a different forum.”

My position on this issue has been for the last 25 years that Pete Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame for what he did on the field during his career. If in the modern day incarnation of the Hall of Fame there need be societal norms attached to one’s candidacy, then my solution would be to put two narrative plaques beneath the busts of the players in the Hall:

Plaque #1

Plaque #2 would explain to the visitor how/why this person fell short of a societal norm or ran afoul of a baseball rule.

Note please that my solution to the presence of societal norms today would ease the debates about players from the Steroid Era getting into the Hall of Fame. It would – unfortunately – also require that “second plaques” be added to the busts of more than a few of the older members of the Hall of Fame whose behaviors then would surely offend lots of folks today and people who are offended today would engage in a Twitter jihad to make that person’s candidacy a cause celebre.

If we were to move to a social stature where betting on sporting events was not stigmatized, we could avoid both of the sorts of situations that I have described above. That would make the world a better place – which is sort of what Baron Pierre de Coubertin obviously hoped to do by resuscitating the Olympic Games.

Finally, here is a comment regarding the Rio Olympics that I found in Brad Rock’s column, Rock On, in the Deseret News recently:

“Late night host Conan O’Brien: ‘It’s been reported that after winning three gold medals in Rio, Usain Bolt was caught cheating on his girlfriend. More impressive, he was also found with another woman just 14 seconds later.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Legalized Sports Betting – The Time Has Come

If you have been a reader here for more than a month or so, you surely realize that I am a proponent of legalized betting on all sporting events. My advocacy on this issue is based on two realities:

2. Legalizing it – and regulating it – will create a new source of tax revenue for governments at various levels of our society. These new tax revenues would not be imposed on anyone against their will; people who do not bet on baseball or football games would not be paying any of the new taxes that would flow to the coffers of governments. It would be a consumption tax.

I would like to welcome a former opponent of sports betting to my side of the aisle. David Stern – as the NBA Commissioner – did not think that betting on NBA games was a good idea and surely did not embrace the good folks in Las Vegas who set lines on all of his games. However, he recently spoke to a convocation called the Global Gaming Expo held in Las Vegas where he addressed the benefits of legalized sports betting and – more importantly – how legalized sports betting would ultimately become a protector of the integrity of the games themselves.

Mr. Former Commissioner, welcome aboard the Wagering Wagon…

In his remarks, Stern said, inter alia:

“The belief that gambling will lead to bad things is an outdated notion.”

And ,,,

“Let’s not talk about the ‘evils’ of gambling when it comes to sports. The industry has come to accept that a properly run gaming association will be protective toward sports.”

The Global Gaming Expo is an event sponsored by and hosted by the American Gaming Association (AGA). This is a trade organization; it is made up of people and entities directly involved in the casino industry; it cannot possibly be seen as a neutral observer when it comes to opinions and positions with regard to gambling issues. Nevertheless, it is not a criminal entity either; it does not exist to destroy the fabric of Western Civilization. In early September of this year, the AGA released a report that had the following estimate in it:

billion

The legalized sports betting industry would handle about $2B this year and the rest of the betting would be done illegally. Approximately 97% of all that money wagered only on football games this year will happen in an underground economy that is illegal, unregulated and untaxed. So much for the idea that passing a law to make gambling illegal will stamp it out…

Local Bookies’ Full Employment Acts.

I am sure that someone else can point to another study where the amount of illegal wagering is not nearly as high as what the AGA has put out there. However, if you read a study that says it is only a trivial amount of money or that this entire issue is under control by the authorities, you can surely dismiss that report as fanciful – even if that is your fondest desire.

I recall reading a report about a year ago that said that the FBI estimated that almost $4B had been wagered illegally on the Super Bowl that year. Like the AGA, you might argue that the FBI might inflate that figure a tad to justify some sort of budget submission to the Congress. On the other hand, they would not have a figure to inflate if in fact the “problem” of sports betting was under control…

One of the major Impediments with regard to legalizing, regulating and taxing sports betting is Federal legislation that does not allow States to decide individually if they want to allow sports betting or not. In plenty of States, it is currently illegal to bet on the Jets +3.5 points against the Patriots but it is not only legal people are encouraged to play the State run lottery games. That fact alone denies a moral stance against sports betting. The most offending Federal legislation here is something known as PASPA – the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992. While well-intentioned, this needs to be repealed and then replaced with something far more rational. PASPA demonstrates clearly the kernel of truth in the old aphorism:

The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.

The State of New Jersey has – so far unsuccessfully – tried to initiate sports betting there. The US Conference of Mayors has joined with the AGA in calling for a “national discussion” to change the ways that sports betting is regulated. Legislators in Pennsylvania have passed a resolution calling on the US Congress to repeal PASPA. I mention these actions here not because they have changed the way things are but to demonstrate that I am not alone in thinking that the time has come for a major change here.

Finally, since all of this is about legalizing a form of gambling, let me close with a comment from Greg Cote in the Miami Herald related to another form of gambling that has been legalized:

“World Series of Poker final table getting close, the annual popular gathering spot for egomaniacs wearing sunglasses indoors.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NCAA – Weekend Of 10/1/16

As I mentioned yesterday in the NFL flavor of Mythical Picks, last week was about a bland as an oatmeal pizza in terms of picks. I made 18 selections for NCAA games; the record for the week was 9-9-0. That brings the season cumulative record to 35-30-0.

The Best Picks from last week were:

The Worst Picks from last week were:

Time and tide wait for no man; the next weekend with its slate of NCAA football games approaches. That means I shall press forward with more Mythical Picks; but before I do, I must remind everyone. There is no inside information contained herein; no one should consider anything written here as authoritative. Most importantly, no one should use anything here as the basis for making a real wager on a real college football game involving real money this week or any other week. Here is how dumb you would have to be to do something like that:

You sprinkle sugar on your pillow to have sweet dreams.

General Comments:

I have to begin with an apology. Last week, I said that the Linfield College Wildcats would host Lewis and Clark College for Homecoming Weekend. Actually, Linfield did not play last week and will host Lewis and Clark this weekend in McMinnville, OR. The Wildcats are 1-1 for the year as they seek their 61st consecutive winning season in football. Go Wildcats!

A couple of weeks ago, I got an e-mail from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times taking note of my “fixation” with Linfield College football. Here is what he said:

“If you want a player to go along with your Linfield fixation, here’s one hidden up here in the Pacific Northwest too: wide receiver Cooper Kupp of Eastern Washington, who has put up staggering numbers playing against Pac-12 schools in each of the past four years – on the road, of course. Eastern has put up at least 42 points in each game and Kupp has scored 11 TDs and amassed over 700 receiving yards in the four games. He won a D-2 national player of the year award last year, so it’s not like he’s an unknown, but his games against Pac-12 teams have been amazing:

2013 EWU 49, #25 Oregon State 46: 5 catches, 119 yards, 2 TDs
2014 Washington 59, EWU 52: 8-145-3
2015 #7 Oregon 61, EWU 42: 15-246-3
2016 EWU 45, Washington State 42: 12-205-3

“His grandfather was ex-NFL lineman Jake Kupp and his father (can’t remember his first name) was a QB at Pacific Lutheran who did battle with Linfield a few times. This guy is like the Steve Nash of the Pacific NW – overlooked by all the big schools.”

Going into the 2016 season – Kupp’s senior year – he had caught 311 passes for 4764 yards (15.3 yards per catch) and 56 TDs. In three games this year – the first of which was a win for E. Washington over Washington State – he has caught 29 passes for 379 yards and 5 TDs. He is listed at 6’ 2” and 215 lbs. I will likely not get to see him on TV here on the East Coast unless E. Washington gets into the FCS Championship Tournament and plays an east coast team but that sort of size and those receiving stats say that he ought to get plenty of consideration in next year’s NFL Draft.

Last weekend’s games started on Thursday night with Clemson beating Georgia Tech handily. That was the first win for Clemson at Georgia Tech since 2003. The score was 26-7 but that does not really explain the dominance here. Georgia Tech’s offensive output for the game was a total of 124 yards. Meanwhile, the Clemson offense began to show signs of life in this game running up a total of 442 yards.

It was not a good week of college football in the State of Georgia last week. The other major football program there – the Georgia Bulldogs – were minced by Ole Miss. The score of that game was 45-14; and like the Clemson/Ga Tech game – the score does not really reflect how badly Georgia was beaten. Ole Miss gained 510 yards on 61 plays. Do the math here; that is 8.4 yards per snap. Georgia ran 81 plays and averaged less than 5 yards per snap. With 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter, the score was 45-0.

Perhaps the last time Georgia had such a bad weekend, Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman and his troops were on the march?

Memphis beat Bowling Green last week in a game that was anything but a nail biter. The score was 77-3 and here are some numbers from the game:

Memphis gained 635 yards. Bowling Green gained 235 yards

One other thing to note from that game … Bowling Green also gave up 77 points earlier this year to Ohio State. Somehow, I do not think “Lucky Sevens” is a popular game on the Bowling Green campus these days.

West Virginia beat BYU 35-32 last week. BYU’s record dropped to 1-3 and that probably makes some of the alums unhappy. However, the Cougars have covered against the spread in all four of their games; so if the alums are “getting down” on BYU each week, perhaps the alums are quite satisfied. In college football, there is winning on the field and there is winning at the sportsbook. Optimally, a team will do both…

Houston needed a big win to hold the attention of the CFP Selection Committee because they did not have a quality opponent on the schedule for last weekend. They got the big win they needed crushing Texas St. 64-3 on the road.

Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in OT dropping the Cadets’ record for the year to 3-1. Check the Worst Picks from last week above; I got everything wrong about this game. Army dominated on the field gaining 444 yards of offense to 264 yards for Buffalo and Army had a chance to win in the final seconds but missed a short field goal. Here is an unusual stat from the game:

Army was 4 for 6 on fourth down conversions

Buffalo was 2 for 3 on fourth down conversions.

Louisville beat Marshall 59-28 and Lamar Jackson threw for 417 yards and 5 TDs in the game. The Marshall passing game was anemic at best; they threw the ball 21 times and completed 9 passes for a total of 59 yards. Louisville gained 682 yards and Marshall gained 185 for the game. Louisville turned the ball over 3 times in the game and still won by 31 points.

UCF beat Florida International 53-14 last week and FIU responded to that drubbing by firing head coach Ron Turner. Yes, Ron Turner and Norv Turner are brothers. Ron Turner had been at FIU since 2013 and his record there – including this year’s 0-4 start – was 10-30-0. Let me say politely that a record of 10-30 with C-USA opponents is not a glowing entry on one’s coaching résumé.

Florida led Tennessee 21-0 in the first half but Tennessee dominated the second half to win the game 38-28. Tennessee is now 4-0 for the season and this win is significant because Florida had the top ranked defense in the country going into the game. Coming back from the 3 TD deficit is difficult against almost any team but doing that against a good defense is even more impressive.

Auburn beat LSU 18-13. Les Miles got fired after the game; Gus Malzahn gets to keep his job at least for the time being. Let me just say that this was a close game primarily because neither team played very well. Auburn’s 18 points came on 6 field goals.

Alabama beat Kent St. 48-0. Nick Saban is a Kent St. alum so perhaps he took pity on the Golden Flashes. Alabama did not score in the 4th quarter of the game and played plenty of subs. Here is a measure of the dominance:

Mississippi St. beat UMass 47-35. Seriously, Mississippi St. allowed UMass to get 35 points in a game. UMass actually led at the half 14-13.

Kentucky beat South Carolina last week 17-10. That has to sting if you are a South Carolina fan. This is the third straight loss for the Gamecocks against Kentucky and it gives South Carolina 2 conference losses already this year. Going into this game, Kentucky had given up 131 points in 3 games (43.6 points per game); South Carolina managed to get 10.

Wisconsin beat Michigan St. 30-6 and shut Michigan St. out for the second half. The Spartans had more yards and more first downs in the game but Wisconsin scored 3 INTs and was efficient when they had to be:

Michigan pummeled Penn St. 49-10. Michigan ran up 515 yards on offense and held Penn St. to only 191 yards of offense. There isn’t a lot more to say here, right? Well, Michigan intercepted a pass, recovered a fumble and sacked the Penn St. QB 5 times. This was a beatdown.

Iowa beat Rutgers 14-7. Two weeks ago, Iowa lost to Division 1-AA North Dakota State; last week they beat Rutgers by 7 points. I wonder which game is more embarrassing… Rutgers had more total offense and more first downs in the game here – and still managed to lose at home.

UNC beat Pitt 37-36. Pitt’s run defense was very good; it held UNC to 28 yards on the ground. However, the Pitt passing defense was bad last week and has not been good all year. In the last 2 games, Pitt has given up 993 yards in the air. I suspect the defensive backs’ coach at Pitt will be taking some Xanax as he looks at the film for this game. Pitt ran the ball well here gaining 281 yards on 55 carries.

Duke went to South Bend and upset Notre Dame 38-35. In Duke’s 2 games this year against Division 1-A opponents, they had scored a total of 27 points; the Notre Dame defense gave them 38. The game was about as close on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard. Consider:

Here is one stat that was a bit lopsided:

Fumbles: Duke 0 Notre Dame 4 (lost 2 of them).

UVa got its first win of the season last week beating C. Michigan 49-35. There were seismic shifts in this game. Virginia led 28-0; then C. Michigan tied the game at 28-28; then Virginia took command again. One stat for the game might be a bit ominous for UVa fans. C. Michigan had 402 yards passing in the game. That does not bode well for UVa once ACC conference games hit their schedule. Several teams in the ACC have potent passing offenses.

Baylor beat Oklahoma St. 35-34. Oklahoma St. had 30 first downs in the game while Baylor only managed to get 20. However, Baylor ran up 517 yards of offense to 466 for Oklahoma St. The reason here is that Baylor executed big plays all day long. Baylor averaged 8 yards per snap compared to 4.6 yards per snap for Oklahoma St.

Out west, Oregon lost to Colorado 41-38. Maybe Colorado is actually a good football team this year. Their record is 3-1 and that loss was to Michigan in Ann Arbor. This is the second loss this year for Oregon.

Stanford beat UCLA 22-13. With 6 minutes left in the game, UCLA led 13-9. Stanford scored to take a 16-13 lead with 24 seconds left to play and then got a Scoop-and-Score for another TD as time expired. This game was closer than the score might indicate.

Utah beat USC 31-27. USC led 27-17 after the first play of the fourth quarter and then gave it up. Leading 27-24 late in the 4th quarter, USC coach Clay Helton elected to punt on 4th and 3 from the Utah 37 yardline. That did not work; Utah got the ball and marched the field for the winning TD. USC is now 1-3 for the season and 0-2 in PAC-12 games. That is not something that USC fans are used to seeing. There have been whispers that Coach Helton is on a hot seat out there despite the fact that this is the first year of his contract. Losing a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter of a conference game is not going to cool down his seat very much.

Arizona St. beat Cal 51-41. The Total Line for the game was a measly 81 points and these teams blew by that comfortably. To give you an idea of the offensive dominance in the game, the teams combined to run 173 offensive plays (almost 3 plays per minute) and gained a total of 1091 yards (6.3 yards per snap). Arizona St. was 10-20 on third down and 2-2 on fourth down conversions. Cal was 7-17 on third down and 1-1 on fourth down conversions.

Arizona St. is 4-0 this year – not necessarily thanks to their defense. In those 4 wins, the defense has allowed opponents to score 137 points (34.25 points per game).

Looking forward to a couple of things this week:

Florida Atlantic and Florida International (see above) square off this week. This game almost surely has implications for the SHOE Tournament. For the moment let us consider this the Bottom-feeder Bowl.

The Ponderosa Games:

Last week there were only 4 Ponderosa Games and the favorites covered in all 4 of them. That brings the season record for favorites covering to 23-16-0.

Alabama, Houston, Louisville and Temple covered.

This week we have 4 Ponderosa Games.

Rutgers at Ohio St. – 38 (60): This should be ugly.

La-Monroe at Auburn – 32.5 (56): Remember that Auburn won last week without scoring a TD. Here the spread is 32.5. What does that say about La-Monroe?

Rice at So. Mississippi – 24 (59): Rice is 0-4 losing by a cumulative score of 157-73. So. Miss is 3-1 outscoring opponents 165-79.

Kentucky at Alabama – 35 (57): I doubt last week’s win over South Carolina will mean a whole lot here. If you think Kentucky can win, the Money Line odds stand at +13,000 this morning…

Games of Interest:

(Fri Nite) Toledo at BYU – 3.5 (52.5): As mentioned above, BYU has covered in all four games this year. BYU has lost its last 3 games to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia by a total of 7 points. Toledo is not on a par with those teams and BYU is at home. I’ll take BYU to win and cover.

(Fri Nite) Stanford at Washington – 3 (45): This is a heavyweight match in the PAC-12 North. Stanford has injuries in its defensive backfield and Washington can throw the ball a bit. Normally, in low scoring games I prefer to take points. Nonetheless, I make this a venue call and I’ll take Washington to win and cover at home.

Buffalo at BC – 18 (39): BC scored 42 points last week against Division 1-AA Wagner. Earlier this year they scored 26 against UMass. In their other two games against real opponents they scored a total of 14 points. And they are favored by 18 here? I’ll pass…

Memphis at Ole Miss – 14.5 (67.5): The Total Line opened at 64 and has been climbing slowly during the week. Both teams can score; there is not a lot of doubt about that. I think this one will be a shoot-out. I like the game to go OVER.

Tulane – 2 at UMass (42.5): This game has great significance for the upcoming SHOE Tournament…

K-State at W Virginia – 3 (54): K-State is 2-1 this year but those wins are over piddling opponents (Missouri St. and Florida Atlantic). W. Virginia is not an elite team, but they are more than a few rungs up the ladder from the schools K-State has beaten. I like West Virginia at home to win and cover here.

UVa at Duke – 3.5 (62): Virginia is suspect on pass defense (see above); Duke likes to throw the football. UVa has lost 16 consecutive road games; this game is in Durham NC. I like Duke to win and cover.

Notre Dame – 10 at Syracuse (74): The spread here opened at 13 points and fell to this level almost immediately; Meanwhile, the Total Line opened at 69 and shot up in about 48 hours. I do not understand what is going on here so I’ll forego a selection. But the game is still interesting because of these large line moves.

Florida Atlantic – 6.5 at Florida International (53): The SHOE Tournament Selection Committee (consisting of Me, Myself, and I) is focused on the outcome here…

E. Michigan at Bowling Green – 2.5 (66): Bowling Green has given up 77 points to 2 different teams this year and they are a favorite in this game? I would not bet on this game with your bankroll.

Miami (FL) – 7 at Georgia Tech (53.5): Miami had a week off to allow freshman QB, Brad Kayaa to absorb the whole offense while Georgia Tech got stuffed by Clemson (see above). I do not think Miami is back to the very top rung of college football that it inhabited 20 years ago, but Miami is a good team and it is getting better. I like Miami to win and cover on the road.

Wisconsin at Michigan – 10 (45): I can’t remember where I saw this stat so I cannot cite the source but Michigan leads the nation in tackles for a loss and in QB sacks and the Michigan defense has held opponents to 6 for 50 on third-down conversions. That makes them tough to deal with anywhere and this game is in Ann Arbor. I’ll take Michigan and lay the points.

Louisville – 2 at Clemson (68): The spread opened with Clemson as a 2-point favorite but it flipped as the week wore on. I think that Clemson has the kind of defense that might be able to keep Louisville’s Lamar Jackson from running wild; the Clemson defense is fast and athletic. DeShaun Watson and his cohorts on the offense for Clemson have not performed the way people thought they would but there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball. I’ll take Clemson plus the points here and I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

UNC at Florida State – 10.5 (69): I think both teams will move the ball and score against the other team’s defense. I like this game to go OVER.

Tennessee – 3 at Georgia (52): This is a test for the Tennessee coaching staff. The Vols beat Florida last week for the first time in forever in an emotional game. The team is looking toward a shot at the SEC East slot in the SEC Championship Game; they are better than Georgia but not if they let down and start to think this is a piece of cake. I will bank on Butch Jones and his assistants to have Tennessee ready to play. I’ll take Tennessee and lay the points on the road.

Texas at Oklahoma St. – 2.5 (70): Texas had a week off to prep for this game while Oklahoma State had a tough game at Baylor last week losing by 11 points. I like the freshman QB for Texas, Shane Buchele; I wish I liked the Texas defense nearly as much. By the same token, the Oklahoma St. defense is not nearly an elite unit giving up about 6 yards per offensive play. I’ll take the rested Texas squad here plus the points.

Arizona St. at USC – 10.5 (65): Short and sweet here … USC needs to win this game at home badly but that line is FAT. I’ll take Arizona St. plus that basketful of points.

Baylor – 17 at Iowa St. (60.5): I do not understand this line at all; I would have expected Baylor to be a much bigger favorite here – other than the fact that they are actually traveling outside the State of Texas which is a rarity for that program. I’ll just pass on this one and see what happens here…

Oklahoma – 3.5 at TCU (70): Neither team’s offense is reliably good – or bad. I think the defenses will come to life in this game so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Finally, if you have read these things over the years, you know that I enjoy finding players with unusual names. BYU has a defensive tackle named Handsome Tanielu. Trust me, my parents never considered naming me “Handsome”.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 10/2/16

Last week was about as bland a week of Mythical Picking as you could have. I made 16 NFL picks and the record for the week was 8-8-0. That brings the season record to 29-20-0.

[Aside: The reason the entire week of Mythical Picking was bland is that I also made 18 NCAA picks and that record was 9-9-0. Hard to get more plain vanilla than that…]

Meanwhile, in Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games, the coin had a perfect week going 2-0-0 and bringing the Coin’s record for the year to 3-1-0.

The Best Picks from last week were:

The Worst Picks from last week were:

Boring as last week’s selections were, I shall continue to make these selections in upcoming weeks. As usual, I want to remind any reader that he/she should not use anything here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this weekend or any other weekend. Here is how dumb you would have to be to something like that:

You go to an LA Clippers game to get your hair cut.

General Comments:

Last week’s games began with the Texans/Pats game where the Pats were down to their third-string QB who had never seen the field in an NFL game. Not to worry, Pats’ fans; Jacoby Brisset managed the game while the defense pitched a shutout and the result was sufficiently satisfying that Bill Belichick was caught on camera smiling on the sidelines BEFORE the time ran out in the 4th quarter. That happens about as often as a total solar eclipse. The Pats special teams were also dominant. When they were not pinning the Texans inside the 15-yardline with a punt, they were forcing fumbles and recovering them deep in Texans’ territory. The Texans did not snap the ball in Pats territory until 1:15 was left in the third quarter.

That was the good news. The bad news is that Jacoby Brisset injured his thumb late in the game. Word is that both Brisset and Jimmy Garoppolo (injured shoulder) practiced with the team on Tuesday of this week. In vintage Belichick fashion, however, neither QB threw a pass during the portion of the practice session that was open to reporters. It was noted however that Brisset had his thumb and wrist taped during the practice. Who will be the Pats’ QB this week? Maybe they will exhume Babe Parilli …?

The Dolphins beat the Browns 30-24 in OT. Frankly, the Dolphins were fortunate to win this game. The Browns had a chance to win with a final second field goal from 46 yards out but the ball was hooked so far to the left that you could call it a Vladimir Lenin attempt. The kicker who missed that try was Cody Parkey and he was signed by the Browns about 24 hours before the game because the Browns regular kicker injured his leg in practice on Saturday. How typical of the Browns…?

The Browns had another “Cody” in the game; Cody Kessler started as a rookie QB for the team; and while it may look as if he lit it up by putting 24 points on the scoreboard, a closer look will tell you that the Browns’ first offensive TD came in the 4th quarter. As the game went to OT, Cleveland won the toss and elected to kick off; had the Dolphins scored a TD, that would have ended the game. Instead the Browns forced a punt – but could not do anything on offense giving the ball back to the Dolphins…

Oh, and I have to mention Terrelle Pryor here. In the game he threw passes, he ran the ball from scrimmage and he caught passes. More importantly, he did all those things more than once in the game. Too bad he wasn’t the place kicker on the final 46-yard attempt …

The Skins beat the Giants 29-27. On Friday before the game, here is what Bob Molinaro had to say about this game in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Sorting it OUT: Is it too soon to call Kirk Cousins “embattled?” That’s one of the cliché adjectives the media hang on struggling quarterbacks. In two Redskins losses, Cousins was 1 for 8 with two interceptions and zero touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. Now he goes to the Meadowlands, where last Sunday, the Giants held Drew Brees’ Saints to 13 points. At the same time, the Giants’ offense failed to score a touchdown. I’m picking Gruden’s guys in this one. Not because I think they’ve got their act together, but because the Giants aren’t good enough to run off three in a row.”

That is what you call “prescience”. The Giants were just not good enough to win three in a row. The Giants turned the ball over 3 times and committed 11 penalties costing them 128 yards. That is bad play; there is no other way to describe it. Kirk Cousins had a fine day throwing for 296 yards and 2 TDs. Haters will say that those numbers are not up to the standard one expects from a “$20M QB”. The correct answer to those haters are the words famously ascribed to the late Al Davis:

“Just win, Baby.”

The Giants are 2-1 for the season and all three of their games have been decided by 3 points or less. That has surely kept Giants’ fans on the edge of their seats for the full 60-minutes…

The Bills beat the Cardinals 33-18. Recall last year; the Cards were in the NFC Championship Game; now they are 1-2 in 2016. They lost their opener at home to the Pats who started a QB that had only taken a kneel-down snap in the NFL; last week, they lost to a team that had been 0-2 by 15 points. The Cards’ offense was their selling point last year. Bruce Arians was a great play-caller and the team has pass-catching weapons all over the place. Well, last week, not much of any of that was on display. The Cards amassed a total of 348 yards on offense. If that sounds OK to you, recall that the same Bills’ defense allowed the Jets to amass 493 yards of offense just the week before. Carson Palmer was awful here:

26 of 50 for 261 yards with 0 TDs and 4 INTs. AND he was sacked 5 times.

Here is a sentence from the cbssports.com summary of this game that gives you an idea that the Cardinals’ offense was AWOL last week:

“The Cardinals combined for just 2 yards net offense and no first downs on their first five possessions.”

The Vikes beat the Panthers 22-10. Recall last year; the Panthers were in the NFC Championship Game with the Cards and then went on to the Super Bowl; now they are 1-2 in 2016. Their losses have come against two of the best defenses in the NFL – the Broncos in Week 1 and the Vikes last week. Here is how dominant the Vikes were on defense:

Meanwhile, the Vikes’ offense did nothing spectacular by any means but what it did was important. It did not invent ways to lose the game. The offense only generated 211 yards of offense but Sam Bradford threw for 2 TDs and did not turn the ball over even one time.

The Raiders beat the Titans 17-10. I guess the Raiders decided to be sure that they packed their defense for this trip. In the first two games, the Raiders had allowed more than 1000 yards to opposing offenses; last week, the Raiders’ defense generated 3 turnovers, held the Titans to 2-for-12 on third down conversions and limited the Titans to 10 points. [Aside: One other possibility is that the Titans’ so-called “exotic-smashmouth offense” is a mirage…] I think the conclusion to draw is that Marcus Mariotta and the Titans’ offense cannot turn the ball over 3 times in a game because it is not good enough to overcome that many setbacks.

Home field is supposed to provide an advantage in the NFL. It would seem that the Titans have decided not to go along with that plan. In their last 18 home games, the Titans are 2-16.

Sebastian Janikowski set an NFL record in this game. His 52-yard field goal in the second quarter was the 53rd time he hit one from 50 yards or more. Until then, he had been tied with former Broncos’ kicker, Jason Hanson for the most long-range field goals. Janikowski has been in the NFL 17 years – all of them wearing silver and black.

The Ravens beat the Jags 19-17. I picked the Jags to win the AFC South; I am now ready to pronounce:

The Jags are dead.

Blake Bortles loves to throw INTs in the first quarter; he leads the league for his career in that category; that puts the Jags in a come-from-behind mode where he throws a lot to get them back in contention. Sadly, that usually leads to him throwing a pick or two in the 4th quarter to lose the game. I do not want anyone to infer that I think the Ravens are nearly as good as their 3-0 record might indicate. This game was a tire fire; here are some of the happenings in the FOURTH QUARTER of this game:

Can you spell, “YUCK”?

The Jags venture across the pond to London this week to play the Colts. A loss for the Jags would put them at 0-4 with their BYE Week coming next. In the past, teams that have gotten on their flight home from London at 0-4 have gotten off that flight with a fired head coach. Remember Joe Philbin and the Dolphins last year? How about Dennis Allen and the Raiders from a couple of years back? If the Jags lose that game – particularly if they lose it and look ugly doing it – I think there is a good chance Gus Bradley will be looking for work next Monday morning.

The Packers beat the Lions 34-27. The Packers led 31-10 at the half with Aaron Rodgers throwing 4 TD passes in the first half. At that point, the Packers put in on cruise-control. The Lions meanwhile had to try to come back by throwing the ball thereby producing some skewed stats:

Not exactly a “balanced offense” …

The Chiefs beat the Jets 24-3. If you need to label this game, call it the “Ryan Fitzpatrick Meltdown Game”. Here are some of the lowlights:

Can you spell “YUCK”?

By the way, those 8 turnovers by the Jets are not even a club record. Back in 1976, in a game against the Patriots, the Jets found a way to turn the ball over 10 times. You guessed it; the Jets lost that game too…

There is a cautionary note here for Chiefs’ fans, however. The Chiefs forced 8 turnovers; two of these turnovers resulted in TDs (a Pick Six and a Scoop-and-Score). And with all of that, the Chiefs only managed to put 24 points on the scoreboard. That is unimpressive … I know; a win is a win. However, the likelihood of such largesse coming to the Chiefs more than once in a season is small.

The Seahawks beat the Niners 37-18. Before the game began, here is Tweet from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle:

“#49ers Breaking News: Kaepernick on DL with anthem knee”

Well, that did not happen, but it was about the only bad thing that did not happen to the Niners as they were dominated in this game; there is no way to sugar-coat that. Russell Wilson had to leave the game in the 3rd quarter with a “mild knee sprain” and it fell to rookie Trevone Boykin to play out the string here. Wilson has been in the league since 2012 and last week was the first time he has missed an offensive snap for the Seahawks.

This makes two weeks in a row that the Niners have lost by exactly 19 points. Those losses have been total team losses; the defense has underperformed and the offense has underperformed. After the Niners shut out the Rams in Week 1, there was probably some glimmer of enthusiasm in the Bay Area that – perhaps – the Niners would be mediocre instead of bad. After the losses in the last two weeks, there is probably some hope in the Bay Area that the Niners will turn out to be merely bad and not dreadful.

Here is what Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle had to say about the Niners in the aftermath of this debacle:

“If you could see any cause for hope for the 49ers in this one, you probably think Monday night’s presidential debate will be a stirring exchange of intellectual thought and political genius.”

Having mentioned the Rams above, they beat the Bucs 37-32 last week. Remember, the Rams had not scored a TD in either of their first two games this year despite the fact that they had won one of those games. Against the Bucs, they score 37 points making you shake your head as you try to figure out how that happened. The team stats do not point to a Rams’ victory:

Even more confusing, put these individual stats next to one another and wonder:

Case Keenum was on the winning side…

After 3 weeks, the Rams and Seahawks are tied for first place in the NFC West at 2-1. After the game, Jeff Fisher did a very good imitation of Bill Belichick in his post-game interview saying:

“When you score points, which we did, you’ve got a chance.”

The Broncos beat the Bengals 29-17 last week. This puts the Bengals down at 1-2 for the year and leaves the Broncos undefeated at 3-0 even with Trevor Siemian playing QB. I sure did not think they would look this dominant in my pre-season analysis. Perhaps John Elway knew what he was doing in refusing to offer Brock Osweiler anything in the neighborhood of $18M per year to play QB in Denver? Oh don’t forget that he also jettisoned Mark Sanchez just as the season started assuring that Siemian would be the starter for a while in 2016. The Bengals led this game at the end of 3 quarters and Trevor Siemian led the team back to a win throwing for 312 yards and 4 TDs.

The Colts beat the Chargers 26-22. The game was a nail-biter; Andrew Luck hit T. Y. Hilton with a 63-yard TD pass in the final 2 minutes to win the game. The Chargers suffered 3 self-inflicted wounds in the final two minutes to invent a way to lose this game.

Philip Rivers was 29-39 for 330 yards in this game which is not a bad day at the office. However, he got just about nothing in terms of support. The run game generated a total of 37 yards for the day on 17 attempts – and Rivers gained 2 of those yards by himself.

The Eagles beat the Steelers 34-3. Say what? At halftime, the score was 13-3 and it sure seemed as if this would be a game that went down to the final possession or two in the 4th quarter. Not so; the Eagles scored 21 points in the 3rd quarter and shut out the Steelers thereby leaving the winner of the game in no doubt. The Steelers came into the game averaging 31 points per game and the Eagles’ defense dominated. Ben Roethlisberger had one of his bad days here going 24-44 for 257 yards with 1 INT and a lost fumble. He was also sacked 4 times.

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz was poised and workmanlike all game long. He was 23-31 for 301 yards and 2 TDs – – and he has now gone 3 full games without an INT or a fumble.

Granted that the Steelers were well behind in the game and had to throw to try to catch up, but the Eagles’ defense held the Steelers to 29 yards rushing for the game. Oh by the way, the last time the Steelers won a game in Philadelphia was back in 1965. The coach of that Eagles’ team was Joe Kuharich. Several years ago I did a couple of Topical Rants where I offered up my 10 worst NFL coaches of all time. Joe Kuharich was on that list…

The Cowboys beat the Bears 31-17 last Sunday nite. The Cowboys entered the game with an 8-game losing streak at home. They had no trouble winning this one. The score was 24-3 at halftime; and in the first half, the Cowboys had 19 first downs to the Bears 4 first downs. Ezekiel Elliot had his best game of the year gaining 142 yards on 30 carries.

The Bears are a marginal squad. In this game, they had Brian Hoyer throw the ball 49 times. That simply will not work; if the Bears do that, they might go winless for the year.

The Falcons beat the Saints 45-32 in what looked like a college game at times. The Saints cannot play defense. I know they have injuries to deal with on that side of the ball, but still… The Falcons averaged 7 yards per play on offense and it was a perfectly balanced 7 yards per play – – 7 yards per rush and 7 yards per pass. In addition to providing only minimal resistance, the Saints’ defense produced exactly ZERO turnovers in the game. The Saints have now allowed 96 points in 3 games; I wonder how Drew Brees feels before a game realizing he probably needs to put 5 TDs in the books for the team to have a shot at winning – – and even that is not guaranteed…

The Falcons lead the NFC South as of today with a 2-1 record and face the Panthers this week. The Falcons defense is nothing to write home about. They have given up 91 points in their 3 games and surrendered 474 yards of offense to the Saints.

Before I get to the games for this week, let me make a few general statements:

How long a leash should Chip Kelly give Blaine Gabbert this week? Politics and “optics” aside, Gabbert and the offense have not been able to come close to “getting it done” in the last two weeks. The Niners have been “wolf ugly” in those games.

The Jets need to get things going in a different direction right away. Their record stands at 1-2 and they lost badly last week. Upcoming on the schedule are:

If the Jets play the way they did last week, they could be 1-5 at the end of that stretch…

The Games:

This week starts the season of BYE Weeks for NFL teams. This week we have two teams inactive:

Green Bay preps for 2 straight games against NFC East teams (Dallas and Giants)

Philly preps for 2 straight road games (at Detroit and at Washington)

(Thurs Nite): Miami at Cincy – 7.5 (44): Both teams are 1-2; I get that. Last week, however, the Bengals lost to a very good Broncos team and led at the end of the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, the Dolphins needed OT to beat the Browns. Using a baseball analogy here because the Browns’ Front Office now houses a bunch of baseball analytics people in positions of authority, the Browns are a Triple A team. The loser of this game will likely be behind the 8-ball in terms of their division so I expect the teams to play as best they can given the short workweek. I wish that hook was not on top of the full TD in the spread – – but it is indeed there. Nonetheless, I’ll take the Bengals at home to win and cover.

(Very Early Sun Morning) Indy – 2.5 vs Jax (48.5) Game is in Wembley Stadium in London: The spread here opened at 1 point and has been expanding as the week progresses. Might it go to 3 points by game time? This is a division game between two significantly flawed teams. The Jags give the ball away far too often and the Colts’ defensive and offensive lines stink. If the Jags cannot score meaningful points against this defense, there should be roster repercussions, coaching repercussions and front office repercussions. At the same time, Andrew Luck ought to be able to light up this defense – – if that offensive line can keep him in a vertical posture for much of the day. I think this will be a high scoring affair so I’ll take the game to go OVER – – without any conviction. Remember I said I would make a pick in every game…

Cleveland at Washington – 7.5 (46): This spread opened at 10 points; it went down to 9 points almost immediately and you can find it at 7.5 points at many sportsbooks as of this morning. I have no idea why Cleveland is taking that much money here; I also doubt the spread will get as low as 7 by game time. When the schedule was announced, I thought this game had an interesting angle to it because it would represent the return of RG3 to FedEx Field. Well he may return to FedEx Field but it will be in street clothes. The Browns are a bad team and this is a second consecutive road game for them. I think the Skins will pound them down; I’ll take the Skins to win and cover.

Buffalo at New England – 4.5 (No Total Line): Not knowing who will play QB for the Pats as of this moment makes any pick in this game at this time nonsensical. However, without a Total Line, I cannot summon the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol to my rescue. Therefore, this is purely a guess based on the presumption that the Pats will have a QB other than Julian Edelman for the game. I’ll make it a venue call and take the Pats to win and cover.

Seattle – 3 at Jets (40): This is a desperation game for the Jets (see above). This game makes the Seahawks fly 3 time zones to play an early game with a QB who suffered a “mild knee sprain” last week. Meanwhile, the Jets’ QB has to blank out last week’s 6 INT debacle. The Seahawks’ weak unit so far this year has been their OL; the most dominant unit for the Jets has been their DL. I think the Jets can win this one outright so I’ll take the Jets plus the points here.

Carolina – 3 at Atlanta (50): A win for the Panthers assures them of a tie for the lead in the NFC South. Yes, this is a road game for them; however, the Falcons’ defense is not nearly what the Vikings’ defense was last week or what the Broncos’ defense was in Week 1. The Panthers should also have revenge on their mind here since their only regular season loss in 2015 came in this building against this team. I like the Panthers to win and cover here and I like this game to go OVER.

Detroit – 3 at Chicago (47): Here is the Dog Breath Game of the Week. I had to pick between this one or the Saints/Chargers game for that “honor”; it was a close call. The Bears have plenty of injuries to deal with and they did not have a great roster to start with. As of this morning, I have no idea if Jay Cutler will be active for the game or what level of proficiency he may have given an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. Cutler at his best can be Matthew Stafford’s equal; Brian Hoyer is not up to that level. I am calling this one a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Bears plus the points. Why not, these are only Mythical Picks…

Tennessee at Houston – 6 (41): The spread for this game is all over the place. It opened at 6.5 points; as of this morning it is as high as 7 points at one sportsbook and as low as 4.5 points at one other sports book. You can find it at every level between those two extremes; I picked the spread that is at more sportsbooks than any other. And no, I have no idea where all these spreads will wind up. There was a report yesterday morning that said that JJ Watt re-injured his back last week and that the Texans put him on IR meaning he cannot play for at least the next 8 weeks. The Titans will bring their run-oriented offense to the game; can the Texans without Watt stop it? That pretty much sets the storyline… I think this is going to be a low scoring game so I’ll take the Titans plus the points here – – and hold my breath.

Oakland at Baltimore – 3 (46): The Raiders played in Tennessee last week, flew back to Oakland and now fly to Baltimore for another early game. Amelia Earhart didn’t fly that much. This is purely a venue call – and a jet lag call; I’ll take the Ravens and lay the points.

Denver – 3 at Tampa (44): The Broncos played in Cincy last week, flew back to Denver and now fly to Tampa for an early game. They did not have the same air miles as the Raiders so their jet-lag hurdle is not as high; moreover, the Broncos are playing at a higher level than the Raiders are at this point in the season. I also think the Broncos are better team than the Bucs and that defense should be able to force turnovers from interception-prone Jameis Winston. Even on the road for a second straight week, I’ll take the Broncos and lay the points.

Dallas – 2.5 at SF (46): The Cowboys’ coaching staff has seen the Chip Kelly offense plenty of times in the past; they will be ready for it. By now, teams have 180 minutes of film to review on Dak Prescott so if he has a fundamental weakness, now is the time where defenses will begin to probe/exploit that. I am sure he is not a “perfect QB” but I am confident that the Niners’ defense is not the unit that will expose him and de-pants him. I like the Cowboys to win and cover on the road.

New Orleans at San Diego – 4.5 (53): This game “lost out” in a photo finish for the Dog Breath Game of the week. Neither defense is very good – and the Saints’ defense is downright awful. I think there will points galore here and the team that has the ball last has a good chance to win it all. Even at this elevated Total Line, I’ll take the game to go OVER.

LA at Arizona – 8 (43): The spread for this game is all over the place. It opened at 9.5 points and now ranges from 9 points to 7.5 points. The spread I used here is the one at the greatest number of sportsbooks. The Rams’ defense is good and that means the Cards’ offense will have to play differently than they did last week (see above). The Rams’ offense is not nearly as good as the defense so that means the Cards’ defense needs to show up and keep them in check. Bruce Arians needs to get those messages through or the Cards will find themselves in a 2-game hole in their division early on. I will bank on Arians’ communication skills here and take the Cards to win and cover at home.

(Sun Nite) KC at Pittsburgh – 4.5 (47): My guess is that the Steelers’ coaches have been less-than-laudatory in their discussions with Steelers’ players this week based on the Steelers’ no-show last week (see above). The Chiefs got 8 turnovers last week including 6 INTs off Ryan Fitzpatrick. In case the Chiefs do not already know this:

Memo to KC Chiefs:

I like the Steelers to win and cover here.

(Mon Nite) Giants at Minnesota – 5 (43): The Vikes’ defense will have to continue to carry the team here because the Giants’ defense is good enough to keep Sam Bradford and his cohorts in check. For the second time this week, I will go to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol. The coin says to take the Giants plus the points. The coin has been right 75% of the time so far this year; who am I to argue with that?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Thoughts On LSU Firing Les Miles …

Earlier this week, I mentioned that LSU fired Les Miles as the head football coach. I am a firm believer that players are more responsible for winning and losing individual games than are coaches and that coaches are more responsible for the overall direction/philosophy of the program than are players. That is why it makes little sense to me to fire a coach because of a bad loss – on the last play of a game in this case. Moreover, I see the potential for parallels here that might not be attractive to LSU fans. Consider:

Phil Fulmer had won a national championship at Tennessee in 1998.

Frustrated by a downturn in football fortunes, Michigan fired Lloyd Carr in 2007. Lloyd Carr had won a national championship at Michigan in 1997. The sainted Bo Schembechler was the coach at Michigan for 21 years and coached 296 games there; Saint Bo won exactly ZERO national championships. In fact, Saint Bo was 5-12 in bowl games. After Carr left, the next two coaches led the Wolverines to a cumulative record of 46-42. That is pure mediocrity. And that led to the hiring of Jim Harbaugh who seems to have set the Michigan program on an upward vector once again.

Now to the present…

Les Miles had won a national championship at LSU in 2007.

In NFL news, Greg Hardy was arrested once again in suburban Dallas. During a routine traffic stop, police found cocaine in Hardy’s car and a packet of cocaine in his wallet. Hardy proclaims his innocence saying that he had been at a party and was paying for everything there and that is how his wallet got passed around to other folks. As to the bag of cocaine in his car, his explanation is that someone at the party gave it to him and he did not know what it was. Remember, innocent until proven guilty in a court of law …

Greg Hardy hopes someday to get another chance to play NFL football. The fact that Jerry Jones – the Father Flannigan of the NFL now that Al Davis has joined the original Father Flannigan in the cosmos – refused to sign him to a contract this year tells you that Greg Hardy is “radioactive” at the moment. And that decision was taken prior to this arrest.

When I read the reports of this incident, I was not surprised at all to note two things:

2. Hardy’s agent was Drew Rosenhaus.

Speaking obliquely of the Dallas Cowboys, the Dallas Business Journal reported that the Cowboys are the only NFL team with an estimated value from Forbes that is above $4B. The Cowboys are valued at $4.2B in 2016; the next most valuable franchise is the New England Patriots at $3.4B; the least valuable NFL franchise is the Buffalo Bills at $1.5B. If you care to see the estimated valuation of all the NFL franchises, here is a link.

Staying with the NFL for now, profootballtalk.com reported that Lady Gaga will be the headline performer at the Super Bowl in February 2017. I always look forward to this annual announcement because it lets me know which “artist” I will be ignoring during the halftime of that game. While I could not pretend to be knowledgeable about Ms. Gaga at all, I do know that she once wore a dress made out of meat to some sort of ceremony and that enraged the folks at PETA. Everyone here knows that I have little time for PETA and its members because they trivialize their activism with nonsense. Therefore, anyone who can piss off PETA gets a gold star from me.

I also recall reading something that is another “plus” for Lady Gaga. I recall that the Chinese government has blocked her from citizens in China because she was considered a “hostile entity” (or some similar description) because she met with the Dalai Lama. The only thing I know about her music is that she once did a duet with Tony Bennett which had to have been one of the great cross-generational events of the decade.

As the MLB season draws to a close, you have precious little time left to get to a park to sample some of the outrageous food offerings that are still out there.

Cleveland Indians

Froot Loops is miserable as a cereal; what makes anyone think it belongs on a hot dog.

Go to a Detroit Tigers game and get a BratPop. This is pure simplicity. You take a bratwurst, put it on a stick, dip it in batter and deep-fry it. Probably best served with a side order of Zocor.

Go to a San Diego Padres game and get Poke Nachos. This is a cross-cultural monstrosity consisting of nacho chips covered with jalapenos, edamame, pickled ginger, scallions, kimchee, shishito peppers and avocado cream.

Finally, consider this commentary from Brad Rock in the Deseret News recognizing a nexus between politics and sports:

“Mark Cuban has offered to pay $10 million to charity if allowed to interview Trump for four hours.

“Cuban, a former Trump supporter, apparently got upset when he heard The Donald plans to build a wall around Germany to keep out Dirk Nowitzki.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

The MLB Season – Down To The Wire

The MLB regular season has only one week to go and there are lots of things about the playoffs leading to the World Series that remain undecided. Five of the six division winners are mathematically decided; the Red Sox lead in the AL East is such that they will lose that title only if they lose all of their remaining games and the Blue Jays win all of their remaining games. Could happen – – but I would not bet on it. The situation in the AL Central is not locked in but the Tigers are in even more dire straits than the Blue Jays. The Tigers need to win their last 7 games AND have the Indians lose their last 7 games to forge a tie there. Could happen – – but I would not bet on it.

The Wild Card slots are a totally different story.

The Mets, Giants and Cardinals remain the three most likely teams to produce the two wild card teams in the National League. I said back before the season began that the schedule maker had been nice to the Mets giving them the Marlins and Phillies as the two final series of the year. The Mets can finish off the Marlins and should be able to deal with the Phillies. I like the Mets chances to get into the playoffs

The Giants have stunk it up since the All-Star break playing .375 baseball since then. Nonetheless, they are on the brink of getting into the playoffs which is what they will need to do if they want to continue their “even-year World Series Champion” string. The Giants are at home for the rest of the year hosting the Rockies and then the Dodgers.

The Cardinals finish with 7 games at home. In any normal year, I would just pencil the Cards into a wild card position because they are normally a good team at home. Not this year… They entered last night’s games with a home record of 33-41. Only Atlanta and Arizona have worse home records in the NL. The Cards have 4 games with the Reds (not a good team) and then 3 with the Pirates who ought to be out of the running by that time.

The National League should be interesting going to the wire…

If the National League has the potential to be “interesting” then the American League shapes up to be “potentially outrageous”. The Blue Jays, Orioles, Tigers, Astros and Mariners are within shouting distance of one another. The Astros and Mariners can settle their differences mano a mano with a 3-game series in Houston. If either team executes a sweep here, they will stay alive and kill of the other team. If they split, they will likely doom both sides.

The team with an interesting schedule wrinkle is the Orioles. They finish the season with all 6 remaining games on the road against the Blue Jays and the Yankees. Here is the rub:

The Orioles are only 36-34 against the AL East.

As of today, the Orioles would claim the second wild card slot but if they play poorly on the road against AL East opponents, they could get caught by one of the teams currently on the outs.

Of course, what I would prefer to have happen would be a 3-way tie in the NL and then a 4-way tie in the AL just so we can all see some extra baseball games. Could happen – – but I would not bet on it.

The Atlanta Braves have been “hot” – sort of – since the call-ups at the beginning of September. The Braves are 13-9 in September and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Why bring that up? Well, the race at the bottom to see who gets the #1 overall pick in the draft looked like it would go to the Braves 3 weeks ago. Now they have ceded that position to the Twins who have had one of the more miserable seasons in 2016. The Twins have already lost 100 games – with 6 more to play – and no other team in MLB can possibly lose 100 games for the season. However, now the Braves are in danger of dropping even lower in the draft pecking order. Here are the standings in the race for the bottom as of last night:

Minnesota

Atlanta

Arizona

Cincinnati

Tampa Bay

San Diego

Here in Curmudgeon Central, we always enjoy watching the bottom of the standings almost as much as we enjoy watching playoff races as they come down to the wire.

Finally, since I have been on the subject of teams suffering some baseball futility this year, consider this comment from Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald about a game between the Twins and the Astros earlier this year:

“The Twins-Astros game in Minneapolis was rained out on Umbrella Night. The Twins’ new Director of Irony called it ‘The greatest night in sports history.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

RIP Jose Fernandez And Arnold Palmer

I do not intend this to be a maudlin morning, but things happened last weekend that were not uplifting. José Fernandez – the Miami Marlins’ pitching ace – died at age 24 in a boating accident that also claimed the lives of two other people. Fernandez was only 24 and arrived in the US to start a baseball career as a Cuban defector. The accident that took his life involved a boat probably traveling at high speed hitting the rocks of a jetty in waters near Miami. Authorities say there was no evidence of drug or alcohol involvement here.

Rest in peace, José Fernandez.

Arnold Palmer died on Sunday at the age of 87. Everyone who reaps benefits from the PGA Tour should show up at his funeral/celebration of life service. Arnold Palmer made golf a television sport; before him it was a curiosity on TV; his charisma and his daring style of play – feast or famine – drew millions of followers that came to be known as Arnie’s Army. In terms of being the media focus for golf, he was Tiger Woods before anyone even thought of Tiger Woods.

Rest in peace, Arnold Palmer.

I found the following e-mail in my inbox this morning from a former colleague who now lives in southern California and who is an avid LA Dodgers fan.

“It’s been an emotional week here. Vin Scully’s last game at Dodger Stadium just ended, appropriately with the clinching of the NL West. Each player, as he came to bat, took off his cap and waved good-bye at Vin in the broadcast booth. I’ve been listening most of the year, and I can tell you that he has sounded better than ever, but he seems at peace with his decision. Half of southern California is in tears. It’s not a death, but it feels like one.”

Vin Scully started in broadcasting in Brooklyn as part of a radio team for the Brooklyn Dodgers that was led by Red Barber. [Aside: Ernie Harwell was also part of that team. If you compile a list of the “10 best baseball broadcasters”, I assure you that all three of these folks would be on the list.] Scully has been at the microphone for 67 years.

Bonne chance, Vin Scully.

Three coaches in college football lost their jobs last weekend. LSU fired head coach, Les Miles, and offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, after losing to Auburn 18-13. Miles had been on the hot seat for a while in Baton Rouge; he was almost fired last year after LSU suffered a 3-game losing streak for the first time this century. LSU is 2-2 this year; Miles’ firing demonstrates the “What Have You Done For Me Lately” nature of college football in the SEC. Miles started at LSU in 2005; here is what happened on his watch:

Overall record of 114-34 (Winning percentage = 77.2%)

Winning percentage is the highest in school history (higher than either Nick Saban or Bill Arnsparger)

Ed Orgeron – formerly the head coach at USC and at Ole Miss – takes over the team. Orgeron’s overall record as a head coach is 16-27 (winning percentage = 37.2%); obviously, that sort of performance will not satisfy the folks at LSU.

The fact that Cam Cameron was also fired along with Les Miles does not come as a shock. LSU’s offense has been disappointing for the last year or so and if the frustration built to the point that the school – and its boosters – were willing to pony up the money to fire Miles, it is pretty clear that Cameron would also get the ax.

Paying off a fired head coach at a major college football program and then hiring another one is not a cheap proposition. Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald recently had this comment in one of his columns that will give you an idea of the sort or money we are talking about here:

“New University of Nebraska President Hank Bounds is expected to receive a 6.3 percent pay raise to $510,400. No, no, no! It’s just wrong when the president of a major university earns almost one-fifth as much as the head football coach.”

The third college football coach to be shown the door over the weekend was Brian VanGorder – defensive coordinator at Notre Dame. The Irish had CFP aspirations at the beginning of the season; their record now stands at 1-3 and they lost at home last weekend to Duke. That was bad enough but they lost to Duke by giving up 38 points to a team that has struggled to score against opponents of far lower stature than Notre Dame. VanGorder will be replaced by Greg Hudson who has been a defensive coordinator at Minnesota, E. Carolina and Purdue.

Good News:

Bad news: His defenses in the past have not done very well at all. His best defense was at E. Carolina in 2006 when it ranked 59th in the country. In two years 2009 and 2015, his defense ranked 100th or worse in the country.

Finally, since I mentioned Brad Dickson above, let me close here with another of his observations related to college football:

“Johnny Manziel has reportedly re-enrolled at Texas A&M. I look for him to drop out after Oktoberfest parties are completed.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NCAA – Weekend Of 9/24/16

Last week was not a good week of Mythical Picking for college football. The record for the week was 7-9-0 bringing the cumulative record for the season down to 26-21-0.

The Best Picks of the Week were:

The Worst Picks of the Week were:

Nothing above should tempt anyone to think of these Mythical Picks as authoritative or in possession of some precious inside information. Lest that message not be sufficiently clear, let me be more direct. No one should even think of using any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real college football game involving real money. Anyone dumb enough to do that …

… is also dumb enough to think that a semi-colon is what a person has after intestinal surgery.

General Comments:

The Linfield College Wildcats took a long trip to Texas to play Mary Hardin-Baylor and Linfield came up very short in the game. The score at halftime saw Linfield trailing 24-20 which is not an insurmountable obstacle; however, the second half was disastrous for the Wildcats as Mary Hardin-Baylor won the second half 42-7 making the final score 66-27. That gives Linfield a 1-1 record so far this year as they commence conference play against Northwest Conference opponents.

This week is Homecoming Week for Linfield and they will host the Lewis and Clark Pioneers. Lewis and Clark bring an 0-2 record to the game and have been outscored 56-20 in those two contests. Go Wildcats!

In last week’s commentary on college football here, I made a passing mention of Texas Tech’s rather miserable defensive record last year. I said that I was too lazy to go and look up the stats, but that I would be shocked to learn if more than 5 teams in the nation (out of the 128 Division 1-A teams) last year had given up more points per game than did Texas Tech. As usual in circumstances such as these, I got a rapid response in an email from the reader in Houston who is a Sports Stat Guru. Let me give you the details; he refers to these teams that allow loads of points as “The Usual Suspects”:

My intuition was correct; there were not 5 teams that gave up more points per game than Texas Tech last year but now that I look at that list of 5 teams something else comes to mind:

Two of the teams (New Mexico St and Idaho) are teams that have been asked to leave the Sun Belt Conference at the end of this season. Before anyone asks, I am not sure what would be a “step down” in prestige from the Sun Belt Conference in Division 1-A football.

Before the games last week, I probably would have said that the best team in the Big 12 in terms of College Football Playoff potential was Texas given that it had a showcase win over Notre Dame and Oklahoma had a loss to Houston on the record. Well, last week Texas lost to Cal, Notre Dame lost again and Oklahoma lost its second game of the year – convincingly. So I don’t know who the Big 12 contender might be this year.

TCU already has a loss on the books. Losing to Arkansas is not nearly as bad as losing to C. Michigan but it was still a home game for TCU.

K-State has already lost to Stanford in Week 1.

Baylor is 3-0 to date but has not played any team of consequence yet – – as is the custom in Waco prior to the onset of conference play.

The scheduling in college football for last week provided an unusual circumstance. The Top 3 teams in the rankings all played other ranked teams and all of the Top 3 were on the road. Here is how all that turned out:

Third ranked Ohio State pummeled Oklahoma 45-24. People had been “worried” about the lack of experience on the Ohio State team; from what I saw last weekend, these “inexperienced players” can play the game. This makes two losses at home for Oklahoma and I think you can write them off completely in terms of the CFP.

Second ranked Florida State did not fare so well in their visit to Louisville. The Cardinals beat the Seminoles badly by a score of 63-20; this was an old-fashioned ass-kicking. I had everything wrong about that game. I did not think that the Louisville offense and Lamar Jackson would be able to dominate the Florida State defense. Here is what actually happened:

Please welcome Lamar Jackson to any discussion involving the Heisman Trophy for 2016…

With regard to Louisville, circle two dates on your calendar:

1 October:

17 November: Louisville plays Houston at Houston

I said last week that I was not sure how the Oklahoma State team would respond to getting screwed over by the officials the week before that. Well, they responded quite well, thank you. Oklahoma St. beat Pitt 45-38 and Cowboys’ QB, Mason Rudolph set a school record throwing for 540 yards in the game. Pitt should have gotten the message that Oklahoma St was ready to play because on the first play from scrimmage, Rudolph completed a 91-yard pass for a TD.

Cal beat Texas 50-43 and the Texas defense gave up 568 yards. That is not a good showing at all for Texas…

Up in the Big 10 part of the country, there was a mixed bag of results.

Michigan State beat Notre Dame 36-28 and dominated the Irish defense rushing for 260 yards. Notre Dame is now out of consideration for the CFP. Not bad …

Nebraska beat Oregon 35-32. There is a quirkiness to this win. Oregon tried 5 2-point conversions in the game and failed on 4 of them and lost the game by only 3 points. Not bad …

Ohio State dominated Oklahoma. Not bad at all…

Wisconsin beat Georgia St by only 23-17. With 12 minutes to play, Georgia St led the game 17-13. I know a win is a win, but Wisconsin was a 35-point favorite here. Not so good …

Iowa lost to North Dakota State (Division 1-AA) at home by a score of 23-21. The game was close but the win for N. Dakota St was not a fluke. They beat Iowa the way Iowa usually beats other teams. They held Iowa to 34 yards rushing (1.4 yards per carry) while amassing 239 yards rushing (4.9 yards per carry) for themselves. Bad, bad loss…

[Aside: It would appear as if N. Dakota St. is still pretty good despite the departure of Carson Wentz for the NFL…]

In some SEC action:

LSU beat Mississippi State 23-20 despite getting shut out for the entire second half. The next meeting of the “Hang Les Miles From The Sour Apple Tree Society” had to be postponed.

Florida squashed North Texas 32-0. Here is what I mean by “squashed”:

Miami beat Appalachian St. 45-10 and may have found themselves a QB in the process. Brad Kaaya threw for 368 yards and 3 TDs in 3 quarters of action.

Va Tech crushed BC 49-0. The BC offense was virtually non-existent gaining a total of 124 yards and amassing the grand total of 6 first downs in this game. Please note that BC had 6 first downs and Va Tech had 7 touchdowns in this game. Adding insult to injury, BC had 124 yards on offense and they were penalized 93 yards in the game. Here is a stat I ran across:

The last time BC scored more than 17 points in a conference game was in November 2014.

The three Service Academies are off to a cumulative start of 8-0. Air Force had last week off but the other two Academies did well:

Navy beat Tulane 21-14 and their record is also 3-0 so far this year. Looking at the game stats it would appear that this game was closer on the scoreboard than it was on the field. For example, Navy converted 9 of 14 third down attempts while Tulane only converted 2 of 12.

Upcoming this week we will see ranked teams playing other ranked teams and ranked teams hosting credible opponents. Here are some of the game that look interesting:

No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 8 Michigan State.

No. 7 Stanford at UCLA.

No. 17 Arkansas at No. 10 Texas A&M.

Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor.

No. 12 Georgia at No. 23 Ole Miss.

Penn State at No. 4 Michigan.

No. 18 LSU at Auburn.

The Ponderosa Games:

Last week, we had 11 Ponderosa games on the schedule and the record for favorites covering was 5-6-0. That brings the season record for favorites covering in Ponderosa Games to 19-16-0.

Arkansas, Florida, Kansas St., NC State and Washington St. covered.

Arizona, Baylor, Georgia Southern, TCU, Tennessee and Wisconsin did not cover.

This week we have only 4 Ponderosa Games and in 2 of those games, the favorite is on the road:

UNC-Charlotte at Temple – 27 (53.5): There are 128 schools playing Division 1-A football and meaningless as it is, I doubt most folks would think that Temple was in the Top 50 or maybe even the Top 75. That spread tells me that UNC-Charlotte is a bad team indeed…

Louisville – 25 at Marshall (74.5): Marshall has to hope that Louisville spent this week reading its press clippings – and believing them – instead of practicing hard for this game. Otherwise this might be an epic blowout. Marshall’s defense gave up 524 yards – and 65 points – to Akron.

Kent St. at Alabama – 44 (50): For the oddsmaker to be on target with both the spread and the Total Line here, Alabama would have to win 47-3. Could happen… Kent St. lost to North Carolina A&T earlier this year; is there anyone on the planet that thinks they can win this game? The odds on the money line stand at +58,500 for Kent St. and at – 135,000 for Alabama.

Houston – 34.5 at Texas St. (65): Houston needs to win big to keep its name in front of the folks who will be on the Selection Committee. Winning this game 10-7 would be almost as bad as a loss for the Cougars…

Games of Interest:

(Fri Nite) TCU – 21 at SMU (65): According to Google Maps, these schools are about 41 miles apart on Interstate 30. It is a rivalry game. Having said that, these two teams play on different levels of college football. I like TCU to win and cover on the road and I like this game to go OVER.

(Fri Nite) Wyoming – 3 at E. Michigan (63): The game is interesting to me because it could have a bearing on the SHOE Tournament later this year. Other than that …

(Fri Nite) USC at Utah – 3 (46.5): I watched the USC/Alabama game and was unimpressed with USC. I also saw some of the USC/Stanford game and was unimpressed again with USC. I ran across a stat that shocked me:

Remember the days of “student-body right”?

It appears to me as if the team just cannot get out of its own way; maybe that is a coaching deficiency? No way I will take USC on the road here so I’ll take Utah and lay the points.

Army – 14 at Buffalo (50.5): Army has been bad for the last decade or so on the gridiron so it is good to see them on the upswing (see above). Buffalo is not exactly a powerhouse and Army runs an offense that Buffalo has probably not spent a lot of time practicing against. I like Army to win and cover here and I like the game to go OVER.

E. Carolina at Va Tech – 11.5 (56): Short and sweet … That line looks fat perhaps because of the drubbing Va Tech laid on BC last week. I’ll take E. Carolina plus the points here.

Penn St. at Michigan – 19 (58): Penn St. RB, Saquon Barkley, is really good and getting 19 points with him on your side is tempting indeed. However, I will pass on that pick and take this game to go OVER.

Iowa – 12.5 at Rutgers (56): I suspect that Iowa will come out breathing fire after having to hear about losing to a Division 1-AA school all this week (see above). I think they are going to pound the ball down Rutgers’ throat here. Even on the road, I’ll take Iowa and lay the points.

BYU vs. W. Virginia – 7 (51) [Game to be played at FedEx Field in DC area]: I am sure there is a good reason why this game is being played at this venue – but that good reason surely escapes me. I think this will be a defensive game; I like the game to stay UNDER.

Pitt at UNC – 7 (67.5): Both teams have shown they can score; neither team has shown any proclivity for stopping opponents from scoring. Ergo, I like this game to go OVER.

Oklahoma St. at Baylor – 7.5 (76): This should be a track meet – – with about the same amount of defense as a track meet. I like this game to go OVER.

Wisconsin at Michigan St. – 5 (42.5): This is the football equivalent of a heavyweight boxing match on the undercard of a major promotion. These big guys will stand there and pummel one another from start to finish. Like USC, Wisconsin’s “brand” is a powerful run game; so far this year, Wisconsin is 83rd in the nation in rushing. I like this game to go OVER.

Arkansas at Texas A&M – 6 (49): I do not understand this Total Line at all. The Aggies can score but not defend. Arkansas can score and sorta defends. I think there will be plenty of points to go around here so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Georgia at Ole Miss – 7 (62): Mississippi has blown two BIG leads this year forging come-from-ahead losses. The first one was against Florida State; the second one was against Alabama. If Mississippi gets that sort of lead here, Georgia may mount a comeback but Georgia is not nearly as good as either Alabama or Florida State. Venue call here; I’ll take Ole Miss and lay the points.

Florida at Tennessee – 7 (43): Florida has won the last 11 meetings between these squads going back to the 2005 season (the Ron Zook Era in Gainesville FL). The wins have generally been convincing too; the average margin of victory has been 12.7 points. This will be a low-scoring game with Florida’s defense keeping the score down and Florida’s offense doing the same. In a low-scoring game, I like to take the points so I’ll take Florida here.

LSU – 3.5 at Auburn (36): You have two coaches on hot seats facing each other here. Auburn coach, Gus Malzahn is 2-12 in his last 14 SEC games; his Auburn teams have lost 6 straight home games to conference foes; that is not a way to keep a job at an SEC school. As you know, Les Miles has one foot out the door and the other on a banana peel. Maybe this game should be played at Dysfunction Junction? Venue call here; I’ll take Auburn at home plus the points.

Cal at Arizona St. – 4 (81): I thought that Ariz. St/Texas Tech couldn’t possibly go over 80 a couple weeks ago. The total then was 123 points. Cal can score; they put 50 on the board last week against Texas. Cal does not defend well however. I think this could be a re-enactment of the Ariz St./Texas Tech game so I’ll take it to go OVER.

Stanford – 3 at UCLA (46.5): Yes, UCLA is the home team and yes, UCLA can play defense. Does not matter to me because I think Stanford is the better team. I’ll take Stanford to win and cover on the road.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………