The Sports Curmudgeon

Congratulations to the Michigan Wolverines as the College Football National Champions this season.  I said last week in my Football Friday rant that I thought the game would be a close one; it was not.  By the middle of the second quarter, it was clear that Washington could not stop Michigan’s running attack and that the only way Washington stood a chance in the game was for Michigan to make multiple errors that handed the game to Washington.  In addition to dominating on offense, the Michigan defense caused the normally accurate Michael Penix, Jr. to have a terrible game going 27 of 51 for 255 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.  Michigan won by three touchdowns last night, but the game was not nearly that close.

Frans Beckenbauer died last weekend at the age of 78.  He was one of the greatest footballers of all time; in Germany he was referred to as “Der Kaiser”.  As a player, he had the stature of a current day Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo; even though he was a defender for much of his career, he was a two-time winner of the Ballon d’Or given to the player deemed the best in Europe over the previous year.  After his playing days were over, he was an important figure in the off-field world of futbol.

• He was a team manager in the Bundesliga and for the West German National Team.
• He was the lead organizer for Germany’s hosting of the World Cup in 2006.

Rest in peace, Frans Beckenbauer.

And speaking of European soccer – obliquely – recall that there was an attempt several years ago by some of the top teams in various top leagues in Europe to form a “Super League” of top-shelf football clubs.  FIFA and UEFA were naturally opposed to such an idea and used the threat of banishment from any FIFA or UEFA competition for teams and players to seemingly put that idea on ice.  However, two clubs – – Barcelona and Real Madrid – – from the Spanish La Liga decided to take this to court in the European Union.

I have said here many times that I am not an attorney.  Usually, I make that statement when I am about to comment on or discuss something ongoing in a US court to make it clear that whatever I say must be taken with a grain of salt.  In this case, I am about to comment on a legal issue heard by the European Court of Justice which makes my level of ignorance all the greater.  In fact, until I read about this decision, I did not know there was such a thing as the European Court of Justice.  However, here is my understanding of what the Court decided:

• FIFA and UEFA specifically cannot ban teams or players from engaging in a European Super League should such an entity come into existence.
• The European Court of Justice decided that such banishment or the threat of banishment violated European Union laws concerning competition in various industries and commercial markets.

One part of the Court’s written decision seems unambiguous to me:

“The FIFA and UEFA rules making any new interclub football project subject to their prior approval, such as the Super League, and prohibiting clubs and players from playing in those competitions, are unlawful.”

I have no idea if this court’s rulings can be appealed or if this is the final word on the legality of a European Super League but the organizers of such an entity have not wasted any time.  Organizers have unveiled a plan for a 64-team entity to exist in three levels of play.

• The Star League and the Gold League would each have 16 teams.
• The Blue League would consist of 32 teams.
• Teams would play matches in a Group Stage and then in a knockout phase which would determine league champions with promotions and relegations as is common in various European soccer leagues.

Don’t hold me to this, but I believe that relegation from the lowest league – – the Blue League – – would allow teams not in the original 64 teams to become part of the European Super League structure.

The organizers of this enterprise cannot be accused of lack of imagination.  They suggest the creation of a major streaming platform that would be free to anyone with Internet access so that any soccer fan anywhere in the world could see each and every European Super League game.  The idea is that with such a broad reach for its potential audience, the streaming platform could generate revenues through a variety of mechanisms to include advertising, premium access subscriptions and sponsorships.

As I understand it, this ruling does not penalize FIFA or UEFA in the sense that it forbids either or both entities from creating competitions within their orbit that might compete with or even overshadow European Super League events.  So, there could still be opposition and impediments for the ESL over the next several years as the new league goes through a gestation period.  The ESL has not set a specific start date for its competition(s) or even a timeline that would have benchmarks for league viability except to say that the organizers believe that the ESL will be fully operational “well before 2030”.  Stay tuned …

Finally, to begin to understand the passion and devotion of European soccer fans, let me close here with these words from Bill Shankly the former manager of Liverpool Football Club:

“Some people believe football is a matter of life and death.  I’m very disappointed with that attitude.  I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

At this point in the Earth’s journey around the sun, lots of folks are wont to say:

“New year … new me.”

Such is not the case here in Curmudgeon Central; naturally, I recognize the reality of a new year; nonetheless, this is the same old me.  And on Fridays, the same old me turns out a Football Friday.  So, let me begin as I always do with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College:  1-0-0   =>   Season:  20-9-0
• NFL:  1-2-0   =>   Season:  20-23-0
• Parlays:  1-1   Profit:  $103   =>   Season:  10-15   Profit $15

 

College Football Commentary:

 

With the college football bowl season in the rear-view mirror, let me offer some comments on the 3 worst and the 6 best bowl games that I saw at least a quarter of.  Believe me, there were plenty of bowl games that I did not see even a nanosecond of.

Three Bad Games:

• Georgia 63  Florida St. 3:  Given the Seminoles’ injuries and optouts, this is a game that should not have been played.  They should have sent Florida St. home and substituted a random team from the MAC.  That could not have been much worse.
• USF 45  Syracuse 0:  Another mismatch due to injuries and opt-outs PLUS a coaching disconnect for Syracuse.
• Western Kentucky 38  Old Dominion 35 (OT):  How can an OT game be awful?  ODU led 28-0 in the first half and coughed up this game in an epic display of ineptitude throughout the second half.

Six Good/Interesting Games:

• Oregon 45  Liberty 6:  The game on the field stunk but the game was a good one because it demonstrated the importance of “strength of schedule”.  Liberty was 13-0 and was clearly in way over their heads here.
• Missouri 14  Ohio St. 3:  The Buckeyes’ first string QB went through the transfer portal and the second-stringer suffered a foot/ankle injury; so, the Ohio St. offense was pretty much non-existent.  But the defense kept this a close game into the mid-4^th quarter.
• Ga Tech 30  UCF 17:  I tuned in to see UCF leading 14-0 in the first quarter.  I was going to change the channel; but something came up – – don’t recall what – – and I stuck with the game.  Tech then proceeded to dominate the game on offense and on defense.  Now, I wonder how UCF got that 14-point lead in the first place.
• Ole Miss 38  Penn St. 25:  This game was not as close as the score looks; the Nittany Lions scored a late and totally meaningless TD.  The best part of this game was seeing underclassmen at Ole Miss who will presumably be back for the Rebels next year to play solid football.  Ole Miss could be an SEC sleeper team in 2024.
• Washington 37  Texas 31:  Both teams played well enough to win this game; there was ebb and flow.  Completely entertaining time spent here.
• Michigan 27  Alabama 20 (OT):  I know what the seedings for the CFP say but I thought these were the two best teams in the tournament and the game certainly did not disappoint.

Anyone who has been reading these rants for any period of time knows that I think there are far too many college football bowl games.  If I were the Dictator of the Universe – – not to worry, no one has offered me that position – – I would probably allow a dozen or so bowl games to exist and put the kibosh on all the rest.  I mention that as a way for you to evaluate what comes next here.

Some commentators are rightfully lamenting the large number of players who choose to opt out of many of the meaningless bowl games.  In the case of Florida State this year, 23 players did not play in the game against Georgia due to injury or opting out to prepare for the NFL Combine or to go through the transfer portal.  The result is that the game on the field was supposed to pair two very good college football teams but only one showed up.

All the above is factual.  However, none of the above matters.  One of the consequences of NIL money going to players these days is that they no longer need “exposure” in nationally telecast bowl games because they now have their own options.  Until and unless bowl games once again become meaningful, this situation will continue to obtain.  Bowl Committees will invite teams like Georgia and Florida State to play in their games because both teams were certainly among the 5 or 8 best teams in the country based on play in the Fall, but as happened this year one or both teams will have significant “defections” such that the teams on the field do not resemble the teams anyone saw in the Fall.

Moreover, the expansion of the College Football Playoff from 4 teams to 12 teams portends a situation that is worse in the future than it is now.  With 12 teams in the CFP, that means it will take 11 games – – bowl games if you will – – to crown a champion.  The media attention – – and fan attention – – will be focused on those 11 games and that will take minor bowl games and render them meaningless and even less interesting than they are now.  Some of this year’s matchups were:

• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Ohio vs. Ga Southern
• New Mexico Bowl:  Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St.
• Frisco Bowl:  Texas-San Antonio vs. Marshall

You get the idea …

Those bowl games were nothing but afterthoughts with only three CFP games on the docket; how much less important will events like that become with attention diverted to 11 CFP games?  There is an obvious and unpalatable solution here:

• Players in bowl games need to be paid to participate with players on winning teams getting more payment than players on losing teams.

Several staffers at NCAA HQs just got a sharp pain in their necks as I finished typing out that last sentence.  My solution would be the absolute last option for NCAA folks; it would deny the concept of the amateur scholar-athlete that the NCAA has tried to will into existence for the last 75 years.

And one last observation about the upcoming expanded CFP.

• College teams now play 12 regular season games and the two best teams in each conference play a 13^th game in the conference championship game.
• Teams seeded between 5 and 12 in the CFP would need to play 3 more games to make it to the Final Game.
• By playing in that Final Game, a team seeded 5 through 12 in the CFP would have to play 17 games in a season.
• Excuse me …  Didn’t more than a handful of NFL players say it was dangerous to play a 17-game schedule?

 

CFP Final Game This Week:

 

Washington vs. Michigan – 4.5 (56.5):  This should be an interesting pairing; it is the first final championship game in the “playoff era” without an SEC participant since 2015.  The Huskies have not played a team with an offensive and defensive line as “bullying” as Michigan’s.  The Wolverines’ secondary has not faced a QB and a cadre of receivers as good as Washington.  Michigan has the nation’s #1 defense; Washington has the nation’s #1 passing offense.  As Flounder said in Animal House:

“Oh boy, this is great!”

[Aside:  FYI, due to conference realignment starting in 2024, Michigan and Washington will both be in the Big-10 next year and will play each other as a regularly scheduled game in October.]  The spread and Total Line have been rock-solid all week long telling me that the money bet on all sides of the wagers is approximately even.  Because I think the game will stay close, I like Washington plus the points and because I think both defenses will be primed for the game, I like the Total to stay UNDER; put both of those in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

As the NFL heads into its final week of the regular season, several games will resemble college bowl games where star players will not be performing:

• Lamar Jackson will be a cheerleader in support of Tyler Huntley.
• Patrick Mahomes will watch Blaine Gabbert run the Chiefs’ offense.
• Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald get the day off.
• Brock Purdy will give way to Sam Darnold – and maybe Brandon Allen? – this week.
• Joe Flacco gets a game off; Jeff Driskell will take his place.

That is the “news” emerging from top teams whose final game has no effect on their playoff status for the season.  At the other end of the NFL spectrum the “news” just might be focused on which coach is about to get fired sometime next week.  So, what I want to do here is to project which teams will be looking for a new coach very soon and then which of those projected jobs are good ones and which ones are not.

In no particular order, here are the jobs I think will be open very soon:

• Panthers – – no reason to retain the interim-coach in Carolina.
• Raiders – – think they will go for a bigger splash than retaining Antonio Pierce
• Chargers – – could you pick Giff Smith (interim coach) out of a lineup with the Smurfs?
• Pats – – surprising development, but I suspect that it is coming.
• Titans – – lots of reporting saying that Vrabel wants out of Tennessee.
• Commanders – – a new broom sweeps clean?
• Bears – – I am on the fence about the opening happening here.
• “NFC South” – – in addition to the Panthers, at least one other NFC South coach will fall this season.

Let me clarify that “NFC South” entry above.  I believe the coach of the division winner will keep his job.  The teams that finish second and third in the division might or might not retain their coaches and for the sake of argument here I will put them in my rankings for the most and least desirable jobs available.

• Chargers:  This is the best job on the board.  No team on my list has a QB that is remotely as competent as Justin Herbert.  The challenge is to build up the defense and to exorcize the injury demons that have haunted this team for at least the last three seasons.  The downside is that the Chargers are now and seem destined forever to be the #2 team in LA.
• Commanders:  The roster needs to be rebuilt; it is the roster that is deficient not the coaching staff.  Josh Harris has shown patience with his other sports franchises so there will be no pressure to make it to the Super Bowl in two years or any other delusional scenarios.  The fanboys will not be patient, but so long as the owner is, who cares?  Having a Top 3 or 4 pick in the next draft is very attractive for a new coach so long as he has faith in his GM.
• Bears:  Maybe this is even better than the Commanders’ job?  If you believe Justin Fields is your QB of the future, you can use the overall #1 pick to take Marvin Harrison, Jr.  If you are not convinced about Justin Fields, you can find a market for him, amass some more draft capital, take a QB with overall #1 pick and add to your roster with the overall #10 pick.  [Aside:  I would opt to keep Justin Fields.]
• Raiders:  They need a QB, and they need to upgrade the OL but there are going to be some interesting free agent QBs available very soon.  I am not impressed by the owner’s ability to hire GMs or coaches.
• Pats:  It is never a good idea to be the first guy to follow a legend in a job.  Who succeeded Lombardi in Green Bay?  Who succeeded Bryant at Alabama?    Moreover, the team needs a significant upgrade just about everywhere on the offense.
• Titans:  If reports are accurate the incumbent coach wants out because of “friction” with the GM and/or the owners.  Add that less-than-attractive element to a team that needs to develop players for the OL and at the pass-catching positions and this would be a hard pass for me.
• Panthers:  Here is an equation that describes this job opening:
  • • A roster that needs restructuring + a QB who may or not make it + a meddlesome/impetuous owner = NOT a good opportunity.

Here is some unsolicited advice for job seekers being interviewed for the Panthers’ opening:

• Make sure your agent gets you as big a compensation guarantee in your contract as possible because this job is only attractive as a cash-grab.

Let me assess the “NFC South” situation as a separate section.  The team that wins the division and gets to host a playoff game will probably keep its coach unless that team plays its home playoff game and gets blown out by 5-6 TDs.  The Bucs, Saints and Falcons can all win the division based on this weekend’s results.  Since I cannot be certain as to the outcome of this weekend’s games, let me offer an opinion on all three jobs.

• Bucs:  Who will be the QB going forward?  Baker Mayfield has had a career year and is a free agent to be.  When he is good, he is very good; when he is bad, he is awful.  [Hat Tip to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.]  How much longer will Mike Evans be a dominant WR?  The Bucs’ defense ranks 25^th in the NFL in yards allowed per game; how much fixing does that need?
• Falcons:  They desperately need an upgrade at QB and an upgrade at WR but not nearly so desperately.  The defense is solid, ranking 11^th in the league in yards allowed per game.  Ownership seems to be “hands-off” for the most part; that is a plus.
• Saints:  They thought they had solved the QB issue by obtaining Derek Carr last year but that is not working out as expected.  The roster is aging; and according to reports by people who know more about the NFL salary cap shenanigans than I do, the Saints have little to no cap room available without releasing players.  Presumably, the ownership situation there has calmed down; at one point there were lawsuits filed by children of the former owner against the current owner regarding the mental competency of the then-owner, Tom Benson.

I think there will be three good job openings this year – – Chargers, Commanders and Bears – – along with two potentially good openings – – Raiders and Pats.  I don’t think any of the others listed here are particularly attractive.

And speaking of NFL coaching, coaches and coaching positions, let me present my thinking as to the Coach of the Year Award.  I think it comes down to two people:

• DeMeco Ryans:  His Texans enter Week 18 with a 9-7 record and what looks to me to be a 50/50 shot at making the AFC playoffs.  Considering that the Texans were 3-13-1 last year, I think he deserves serious consideration.
• Kevin Stefanski:  The Browns are 11-5 and have secured a playoff slot.  They achieved that status despite having to have started four different QBs this year.  ‘Nuff said …

Now, let me review last week’s games:

Cards 35  Eagles 31:  The Eagles – – particularly the defense – – are a team in free fall.  They will be in the playoffs but will need a major reversal of form to make it out of the first round.  The Eagles led this game 21-6 at halftime and gave up 29 points in the second half.

• Cards’ Total Offense = 449 yards
• Eagles’ Total Offense = 275 yards

Bears 37  Falcons 17:  It seems counter-intuitive but both teams have records of 7-9 and the Bears just handled the Falcons.  Yet, the Bears are eliminated from the NFC playoffs while the Falcons are still alive for a playoff slot.  The Bears started strong and finished strong and outgained the Falcons by 125 yards for the day.

Rams 26  Giants 25:  The Rams clinched a playoff slot with this win; it was the third win in a row for the Rams.  The scoreboard was close, and the stat sheet was just as close:

• Rams’ Total Offense = 391 yards   Giants’ Total Offense = 389 yards
• Rams’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards   Giants’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards

A missed PAT in the third quarter by the Giants’ Mason Crosby proved to be the difference in the game.

Jags 26  Panthers 0:  With Trevor Lawrence unable to play, the Jags’ defense took control of the game holding the Panthers’ offense to only 124 yards in the game and 7 first downs.  The Jags had lost 4 games in a row coming into this one, but they simply dominated from start to finish here.

Colts 23  Raiders 20:  This result keeps the Colts alive for the AFC playoffs and mathematically eliminates the Raiders from those same playoffs.  The margin of victory was a second-chance field goal attempt by the Colts.  The first try was no good, but the Raiders were offsides and gave the Colts another try which was good.  That attempt produced the 23^rd point for the Colts in the game.

Bills 27  Pats 21:  The Bills were all but dead and buried in November, but this was their fourth straight win, and they can win the AFC East if they beat the Dolphins – – in Miami – – this weekend.  The Pats outgained the Bills in the game and the Pats’ defense held Josh Allen to a meager 167 yards passing.  The big difference in the game is right here:

• Bills’ Turnovers = 1 (INT)
• Pats’ Turnovers = 4 (3 INTs including a Pick-Six)

Ravens 56  Dolphins 19:  The Dolphins led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, but at halftime the Dolphins trailed 28-13.  Then things got significantly worse for the Dolphins in the second half.  The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore MD.

Niners 27  Commanders 10:  The game was close at halftime with the Niners only leading 13-10.  However, the Commanders were shut out in the second half and the game was well in hand for the Niners all during the 4^th quarter.  This win gives the Niners the overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs; the NFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Santa Clara, CA.  The Niners outgained the Commanders 408 yards to 225 yards in the game and controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes.

Saints 23  Bucs 13:  The NFC South race will go down to the final game of the season and if the Bucs and the Saints both lose this week, the NFC South champion will enter the NFC playoffs with an 8-9 record.  A late meaningless TD by the Bucs made this game seem more in doubt than it was; the Saints actually led 20-0 as the fourth quarter began.  Four turnovers by the Bucs sealed their fate here.

Texans 26  Titans 3:  The Titans only managed to gain 187 yards in the game and the Titans running game only produced 53 yards on 21 rushing attempts.  The Texans’ record is 9-7 and they are still potential AFC South division champions.  Remember that the Texans’ record last year was a miserable 3-13-1.

Chiefs 25  Bengals 17:  The Chiefs trailed 17-16 at the start of the 4^th quarter and it was the Chiefs’ defense late in the game that earned this victory.  Here are the Bengals’ possessions in the 4^th quarter of the game:

• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – 1:02 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-14 yards – – 1:45 time of possession – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 13 yards – – 1:52 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the fourth quarter the Bengals’ offense ran 15 plays for a net gain of 1 yard over a time span of 4 minutes and 39 seconds.  The Chiefs are the AFC West champs.

Steelers 30  Seahawks 23:  This win assures that Mike Tomlin will not suffer his first losing season as the coach of the Steelers.  It also keeps the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive – – albeit not an easy path for the team.  Speaking of “not easy” the stat sheet says the Steelers should have won this game more comfortably than they did:

• The Steelers gained 468 yards in the game – – 99 more yards than the Seahawks.
• The Steelers time of possession was 37:33.
• The Steelers converted 6 of 13 third-down tries and 2 of 3 fourth-down tries.
• The Steelers ran 71 plays, and the Seahawks ran 49 plays.
• The Steelers did not turn the ball over in the game; the Seahawks lost a fumble.

Why so close?  Well, the Steelers got into the Red Zone seven times in the game and came out with a TD only three times.

Broncos 16  Chargers 9:  Jarrett Stidham was the QB for the Broncos here and this is his first win as a starting QB in the NFL.  Other than that, not much else of any import happened in this game.

Packers 33  Vikes 10:  This was a rout; no way to sugar-coat it.  Check these stats:

• Packers’ Total Offense = 470 yards   Vikes’ Total Offense = 211 yards
• Packers’ Time of Possession = 37:32  Vikes’ Time of Possession = 22:28
• Packers’ First Downs = 28  Vikes’ First Downs = 13
• Packers’ 3^rd down conversion = 9 of 14   Vikes 3^rd down conversion = 3 of 10

Both teams are alive in the NFC playoff race – – but the Vikes’ chances are on life-support in the ICU…

Cowboys 20  Lions 19:  To say the end of this game was “controversial” is like saying that Hemmingway was a decent writer.  Both teams are in the playoffs and just might meet again in a loser-leaves-town match.

Browns 37  Jets 20:  The Joe Flacco Express rolls on.  The surprise is that the Jets’ offense rolled up 360 yards of offense on the Browns’ defense here.  Notwithstanding that accomplishment, this game was never really in doubt after the first quarter when the Browns led 20-7.  The Browns are in the AFC playoffs with their 11-5 record to date; this was their 4^th win in a row.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

There are a lot of lines this week that look odd given teams’ records in the 2023 regular season.  Some of the games here resemble minor bowl games for college teams; you cannot be sure of the level of motivation by either the players or the coaching staffs.  For those of you out there who really like to “have a little something down” on games you will be watching, be careful this week.  The NFL is difficult enough to bet on in the middle of the season; betting in Week 18 is more like buying a lottery ticket.

The other interesting feature for this week’s game is that all 16 games are division games.  Obviously, that was done with “malice aforethought” by the NFL schedule makers; it was not an accident.

Also, there has been lots of line movement this week as news dribbled out about who would be playing and who would not be playing for various teams (see above for a partial listing).

 

(Sat Late PM) Steelers – 4 at Ravens (35):  The spread opened with the Ravens as a 3-point favorite with a Total Line of 43 points.  With Tyler Huntley replacing Lamar Jackson at QB for the Ravens the line moved a full TD and the Total Line shrunk by 8 points.  The Steelers have an outside chance at the playoffs, but that chance demands a win in this game.  This game will have all the grace and artistic flavor of a boxing match in a telephone booth.  Mason Rudolph has jump started the Steelers’ offense in recent weeks by throwing the ball down the field occasionally.  That may not be a great strategy against the Ravens’ defense.  And Tyler Huntley may not be the equivalent of Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think he is significantly worse than Mason Rudolph.  This may be the last chance to get the Ravens plus points this season; so, I’ll take that opportunity here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat Nite) Texans – 1 at Colts (47):  I gave this game some consideration as the Game of the Week. The game opened with the Colts as 3-point favorites, but the line has moved steadily toward the Texans as the week went on.  Unlike many games this weekend, both teams need a win in this one; both teams are 9-7 in the AFC South and both teams trail the Jags in terms of tiebreakers.  That seems to be a lot of pressure for rookie CJ Stroud as the Texans’ QB, but do not consider Colts’ QB, Gardner Minshew, a grizzled vet in these circumstances either.

Cowboys – 14 at Commanders (46):  The Total Line opened at 50 points; the shrinkage may reflect the idea that the Cowboys might take their foot off the gas in the later stages of the game?  The Cowboys have not yet clinched the NFC East, but a win here would nail that down.  The Cowboys are only 3-5 on the road this year and this game is in Washington.  But the idea that the Commanders will win outright is a bit much to swallow.  The Commanders might play to show their new coach what they can do on tape next month – – or – – they might lie down and get themselves ready for a family vacation in the sun somewhere.  One temptation here is to take the points and hope the Cowboys rest some players in the second half allowing a back-door cover by the Commanders – – but I shall resist that temptation.  Another temptation is to take the game to go OVER on the thinking that if the Cowboys get on a roll, they might cover the 46 points all by themselves.  I will resist that temptation also.  I am behaving here contrary to Oscar Wilde who said:

“I can resist anything except temptation.”

Rams at Niners – 4 (41):  Neither team needs this game; they are both in the playoffs and they know where they stand.  See above for all the players who will not participate this week in preparation for the playoffs.  I thought about this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because it will essentially be a junior varsity contest, but I settled on another one for that label.  The QB pairing here will be Carson Wentz (Rams) versus Sam Darnold (Niners).  Does that give you a tingly feeling?

(Sun Nite) Bills – 3 at Dolphins (49):  This is the Game of the Week. The spread opened with the Dolphins at 1.5-point favorites, but the line shifted quickly in favor of the Bills.  The Dolphins are assured of a playoff slot; the Bills will be the AFC East champs with what would be their fifth straight win; the Bills are not assured a playoff slot with a loss.

Falcons at Saints – 3 (42):  Here is another game where both teams need to win, and it will be all hands on deck.  If the Panthers rise up and beat the Bucs in Carolina on Sunday, the Saints can claim the division title with a win.  I believe that the Falcons would also win that division with a Bucs’ loss and their win over the Saints via division record as the tiebreaker.  This is an important game – – but I doubt it will be entertaining.

Eagles – 5 at Giants (42):  This line opened with the Eagles as 7-point favorites and with the Total Line at 47 points.  Why there has been such a large movement in the spread and the Total Line is not obvious to me.  Neither team needs this game; the Eagles might harbor some fantasy of winning the NFC East if they win here and the Commanders beat the Cowboys.  [Aside:  The Money Line on the Commanders this morning sits at +600.  Just saying …]  Meanwhile the Giants have been playing out the string for several weeks now.  The Eagles’ secondary has been porous for the last 6 weeks or so; maybe someone should whisper in the offensive coordinator’s ear that running the ball and taking some time to move down the field will take some of the pressure off that defensive secondary.  Got that?

Browns at Bengals – 7.5 (37):  This line opened with the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites, and it jumped to this level once it was announced that Joe Flacco would be sitting this one out.  At the same time, the Total Line dropped from 41.5 points to this level very quickly.  This is another game where neither team needs the game because their playoff fates are already decided.  This line is fat; even with Flacco on the sidelines, do I want to lay a full TD with a hook on Jake Browning’s version of the Bengals’ offense against the Browns defense?  No, I’ll take the Browns even without heavy motivation other than a rivalry game plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bears at Packers – 3.5 (45):  I believe this is a “win-and-you’re-in” game for the Packers.  It is clearly going to be a pressure game for Jordan Love as the Packers QB in front of their home fans this week.  Do not sleep on the Bears; they have won 5 of their last 7 games and they are scoring about 25 points per game over that time period.  I think the Bears will play the game seriously because it is a rivalry game; give me the Bears plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Seahawks – 3 at Cards (48):  The Seahawks can still make the playoffs, but it requires a loss by the Packers and a win here over the Cards.  The Cards are 4-12 for the season but two of those four wins have come over teams with an 11-5 record this week (Cowboys and Eagles).  One interesting aspect of the game is that the Cards are vulnerable to a passing game and the Seahawks are vulnerable to a running game.  So, which offensive “strength” will carry the day?  Purely a hunch, but I’ll take the Cards with the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jets at Pats – 2 (30.5):  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  When the game kicks off, the combined records of the two teams will be 10-22; both teams have been playoff after-thoughts for about a month; neither team is viable at the QB position.  The Jets rank dead last in the AFC in Total Offense; the Pats are 14^th out of 16 teams in the AFC in that category.  This game could wind up as a 10-10.  If so, it would be a fitting end to the season for both teams.

Jags – 3.5 at Titans (39.5):  The Jags are in the playoffs with a win; the Titans have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now.  The Jags have played much better on the road this year than they have at home.  They are 5-2 on the road and only 4-5 at home.  The Titans have a more “normal” home and away record this year; they are 4-4 at home and 1-7 on the road.  Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder injury has him listed as “Questionable” which makes this a non-wagering proposition.

Broncos at Raiders – 3 (38):  This spread has a lot of variation this morning.  You can find it as low as 1-point and as high as 3.5 points at various sportsbooks.  No, I have no explanation for this.  The Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham at QB again; cynics might say that they do so to cement in their minds that they need to acquire a real QB for the 2024 season.  The Raiders will play Aiden O’Connell at QB – – probably having already decided that he is not their “QB of the future”.

Vikes at Lions – 3.5 (46):  For the Vikes to make the playoffs, I believe they must win here and then have the Packers, the Bucs and the Seahawks all to lose this week.  I am not sure why the Lions have not announced that they will be resting some starters, but that is the status as of this morning.

Bucs – 4 at Panthers (37.5):  The Bucs have a simple task at hand; win and you’re in the playoffs.  The Panthers have won only twice this year – – but both of those wins came at home.  I saw a report that Baker Mayfield can earn a significant bonus in his contract if the Bucs win the NFC South division; he can also enhance his value as a free agent QB with a playoff appearance.

Chiefs at Chargers – 3.5 (35):  Yet one more game where one team is in the playoffs as a division winner and another team that is on the outside looking in.  The QB confrontation here will be Blaine Gabbert (Chiefs) versus Easton Stick (Chargers).  Curb your enthusiasm …

So, let me review this week’s 6-element “Betting Bundle”:

• Washington + 4.5 against Michigan
• Washington/Michigan UNDER 56.5
• Browns +7.5 against Bengals
• Bears +3.5 against Packers
• Ravens +4 against Steelers
• Cards +3 against Seahawks

            And here is a Money Line parlay for fun:

• Bears @ +145
• Bucs @ minus-240   $100 wager to win $247.

Finally, I’ll close here with these words from Bear Bryant about an important aspect of college football:

“It’s kind of hard to rally around a math class.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I ran across a stat that was unusual enough that I went to check it out.  Lou Gehrig was part of the famous Yankees’ team in 1927; he set a record for consecutive games played at 2,130 that stood until Cal Ripken, Jr. broke it about 60 years later; he also hit 4 home runs in consecutive at bats in a single game in 1932 – – a feat that has not been duplicated.  Those are “highlight stats” that most baseball fans know by heart.  Here is another amazing Lou Gehrig stat:

• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig played in 1695 games.
• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig had 1690 RBIs.

The math for that says he drove in .998 runs per game which is close enough to 1 RBI per game to generate this sort of mental musing:

• What sort of contract might a current player get if he had driven in 162 runs in 162 games over even a 3- or 4-year span?
• The last player to exceed 162 RBIs in a single season was in 1999 when Manny Ramirez drove in 165 runs.
• Over the last 10 years, the highest total for RBIs for a season in MLB was last year by Matt Olsen; he drove in 139 runs.
• The MLB record for most RBIs in a single season is held by Hack Wilson (Cubs) in 1930; Wilson drove in 191 runs that year.

Moving on …  The landscape for Spring Football in the US has changed.  The USFL and the XFL have figured out a way to merge into a single entity that will be called the UFL – – the United Football League.  Both the USFL and the XFL competed with 8 teams last year; because of the merger, the number of franchises will be halved; the UFL will consist of 8 teams.  Play will commence in March 2024 if all goes according to plan.

The 8 teams in the UFL are going to be located in an interesting array.  There will be two conferences – – the USFL Conference and the XFL Conference presumably to acknowledge the roots of the UFL.  Let me first list the teams here to make an observation:

XFL Conference:

• Arlington Renegades – – Arlington, TX
• DC Defenders – – Washington, DC
• San Antonio Brahmas – – San Antonio, TX
• St. Louis Battlehawks – – St. Louis, MO

USFL Conference:

• Birmingham Stallions – – Birmingham, AL
• Houston Roughnecks – – Houston, TX
• Memphis Showboats – – Memphis, TN
• Michigan Panthers – – Detroit, MI

Half of the teams in the new UFL are going to play in areas where there is an existing NFL franchise.  The other half will be in “virgin territory” for pro football.  The thing that I find interesting is that of the ten largest TV markets in the US, the UFL will only have a franchise in three of them:

• #5 – – Dallas/Fort Worth
• #6 – – Houston
• #9 – – Washington DC

The reason I find this interesting is that FOX and ESPN both have some sort of ownership stake in the merged UFL and that would have led me to think that the new league would have a team in either NY or LA or Chicago just to “plant the flag” in one or more of the Top 3 TV markets in the country.  But such is not the case …

On the other hand, if the new league is willing to make a go of it outside the big metropolitan areas in many of the franchise locations, I wonder why the new league chose to compete with the Cowboys, Texans, Commanders and Lions with four of the new franchises.  If I were looking for a place to put a Spring football franchise that would compete for local attention with an NFL team, I would think of Chicago where the Bears are looking to get out of town leaving a functional facility in the “downtown area” that could be readily available.  But I am not a TV mogul from either FOX or ESPN …

I have no reason to wish for the UFL to fail; its existence will potentially provide grist for these rants.  Nevertheless, I would lose “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out that one way to look at this merger is as a 50% contraction as compared to the two previous Spring football entities.  Normally, when commercial enterprises contract, it is an indication that they cannot sustain themselves within the bounds of their current and projected revenues.  From that viewpoint, it becomes a bit more difficult to take seriously the words from Daryl Johnson who will serve as the head of football operations for the UFL:

“As we come together to create the UFL, we can build something powerful, exciting and very cool for football fans — a spring league with lasting impact for all the players with a dream to play pro football and the ‘hardest workers in the room’ mentality to make their dreams come true.”

Finally, Spring football in the US has been an aspiration for more than 40 years now; leagues have come and go; when they are in the “coming stage” there is an abundance of hope in the air. So let me close today with these words from Nietzsche:

“Hope in reality is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I realize that we have just begun to experience 2024, but I want to mention something that will happen early on in 2025 to start off today.  The NBA’s TV rights deals expire in 2025 and there will need to be new ones negotiated starting in the first six months of 2024.  Do not be surprised by the narrative that will be created surrounding those negotiations; it will contain these sorts of elements:

• The NBA is a rapidly growing enterprise.
• The NBA attracts a young and vibrant audience.
• The NBA has a huge following in the huge marketplace known as China.
• The NBA has bold/creative leadership experimenting with new concepts such as the In-Season Tournament.

You get the idea …  The so-called “NBA Insiders” will push that sort of narrative hard in the self-interest of the “insiders”.  Whatever actual access those folks have will be maintained and perhaps enhanced if they establish that narrative which will be useful to the league at the negotiating table.  I do not say this to “blame” the “insiders”; I say this because it is a natural occurrence; the NBA and the networks will try to do what is “best for business” from their perspective; the “insiders” will do exactly the same thing.

I mention all this because you should keep in mind some traces of reality as you are bombarded by elements of the upcoming narrative.

• The NBA has dominated Christmas Day from a sports perspective since the year the NBA was founded in 1949.
• The NBA has played at least two – – and as many as eight – – games on Christmas Day every year since then save for 1998 when the league locked out the players until mid-January 1999.
• The NBA has presented a nationally televised Christmas game or games since 1967.

The NBA has “owned Christmas Day” from a sports perspective for decades.  Nonetheless, for Christmas 2023, there was a head-to-head matchup for TV eyeballs between the NBA and the NFL.  Keep all those elements of the narrative outlined above in mind as you read the data from Christmas 2023:

• Largest audience for any of the NBA’s 5 games = 5 million (Lakers/Celtics)
• Average peak audience for the 5 NBA games = 2.82 million

Now compare those numbers with the audiences for the 3 NFL games on Christmas Day 2023:

• Largest NFL audience = 29.2 million (Chiefs/Raiders)
• Average peak audience for the 3 NFL games = 28.5 million

I will keep an eye out for any reporting that adds that comparative element to its portrayal of “the narrative”.  However, I do not expect to find it on prominent display.

There is potentially an interesting element to the overall picture for these TV rights negotiations.  I have read a couple of reports saying that Amazon would like to do a deal with the NBA to create an analog to Amazon’s Thursday Night Football programming with the NFL.  The idea would be for Amazon to have a package deal with the NBA to put on Tuesday Night Basketball using Prime Video as the distribution method.  Amazon and the NFL have worked together to grow the audience for Thursday Night Football to the point where Amazon draws more than 12 million viewers for many Thursday night games.  That audience is not nearly what Sunday audiences are for NFL games, but they are more than double the audiences for the biggest NBA Christmas games.

Amazon pays the NFL $1B annually for its Thursday Night package.  A similar package with the NBA would provide lots more games – – NBA teams play 82 regular season games over about 23 weeks as opposed to NFL teams which play only 17 regular season games over 18 weeks.  Can Amazon grow a “Tuesday Night clientele” similar to the one it has developed for the NFL?  Now that would be interesting to watch …

Switching gears …  Could it be that the NFL needs at least one of its owners to be a horse’s ass?  Think about it:

• Al Davis and the Raiders sued the league itself – – and won the case.
• Leonard Tose had to sell the team to pay off gambling debts.
• Eddie DeBartolo had to sell the team having been caught up in a bribery scam.
• Danny Boy Snyder – – well pick your own favorite outrageous behavior moment.

So, with Snyder off the see the world on his super-yacht, the league might be in need of an owner to step up and be the negative face of the league.

• Ladies and gentlemen, give it up for Panthers’ owner, David Tepper who in frustration last weekend threw a drink at a fan of the opposing Jaguars as his Panthers lost that game 26-0.

For that kerfuffle, the NFL fined Tepper $300K which is to say the NFL did nothing.  Consider:

• Tepper’s net worth estimated at $20.6B
• NFL fine is 0.000015% of his estimated net worth.

If you had $100K in your bank account and you incurred a “fine” that had the same impact on your holdings as the NFL levied here, you would owe a total of $1.45.  That would teach you, right?

• Memo to David Tepper:  Taking over Danny Boy Snyder’s mantle as the NFL’s resident horse’s ass owner is not a good strategy.

Finally, let me close my first rant of 2024 with this pronouncement by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Men are the only animals that devote themselves day in and day out, to making one another unhappy.  It is an art like any other.  Its virtuosi are called altruists.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am not someone who has ever been involved in the advertising enterprise; I claim no insight into the fundamental principles of that field of endeavor.  Like everyone else, I am a consumer of advertising – – whether I like it or not – – because it is everywhere.  Moreover, I have a basic acceptance of advertising as an activity that brings me good because it is the presence of advertising that allows me to enjoy all my sports programming on television.  So, count me as an “accepting novice” when it comes to evaluation of advertising.  I watch and listen to ads on sports/news shows and just react to what they are telling me.

Once a year, I compile my notes and make a list of ads that did not seem to motivate me in any particular way to use or consume the product being pushed.  I call those “Bad Ads”.  Probably the creators of those ads would argue that the fact that I made a note of them and then put them here on my list shows that they were not really “Bad Ads”.  Whatever …  This is my rant and so I will label them as “Bad Ads”.

First up this year is an ad campaign for a drug that alleviates hot flashes in post-menopausal women.  The ad cleverly claims to turn “hot flashes” into “not flashes”; the drug certainly addresses a problem area for many women.  However, every drug ad on TV has a portion of the ad that starts with:

• “Do not take XXX if you are allergic to it or if you have had YYY or if something else exists…”

After that peroration, the voiceover will begin to list possible side effects which can range from “soreness at the injection site” to “death”.  In the case of the ad for alleviation of hot flashes, one of the possible side effects noted is … drumroll please …  “Hot Flashes”.

Excuse me.  If the drug is supposed to alleviate hot flashes, then a hot flash is not a side effect; in that situation a hot flash is an indicator that the drug is not working.

Another drug ad that had a silly portion was for Rinvoq – – an eczema treatment.  The ad claims:

• “Some patients saw up to 100% clear skin”. 

No!   EVERY patient saw – – and will aways see – – “up to 100% clear skin.”  And no one will ever see 101% clear skin.  Got that …?

And in the realm of healthcare ads, let me lump together every single one of the ads for Medicare Advantage plans into a single category and denounce them all.  One of them has Joe Namath as its spokesperson.  Why would you want to take medical advice, financial advice or insurance advice from him?

Ads for the GMC Sierra truck should remind you always to read the fine print.  There is an ad for the Sierra where they are bragging about their “hands free driving” capability.  I’m sure you have seen it; the driver and the passengers all begin to clap their hands as the background music plays “We will, we will rock you…”

Check the fine print on that ad and you will see that they claim that the vehicle you are seeing is a “pre-production model”.  No problem there – – until you recall that GMC has been showing the same ad for about 3 years now. So:

• When might the vehicle shown in the ad actually be produced? 

Oh, but there is more reason to read the GMC Sierra fine print than that minor point.  The ad shows the truck hauling a load with the hand-clappers inside as it autonomously passes a slower vehicle on the totally vacant highway.  Once again, no problem until you read the fine print to learn that lane changing – – essential to passing a slower vehicle – – will not be available when towing something with the truck.  So, we have a model that does not exist yet being advertised with a feature that will not be available whenever it does exist.  Isn’t that swell?

GMC Sierra is consistent if nothing else in its ads.  Another ad shows the vehicle mastering plenty of difficult terrain.  If you are into off-roading, this is probably impressive – – until you read the fine print.  There, you will learn that the vehicle you are seeing on your screen is another pre-production model and that some “features” may not be available on production models.  Sign me up for a test drive if/when one of these things ever enters the real world…

Buick Envision is another brand that runs old ads.  One of those old ads ran again in 2023 during March Madness; it has fine print at the bottom saying that it shows features that may or may not be available on 2021 models.  Guess what, If I am looking to buy a NEW Buick Envision, I doubt I could find a 2021 model with or without those unspecified features.

Mercedes Benz advertises their “Certified Pre-Owned” cars that are meticulously examined before you are even allowed to see them let alone buy them.  Excuse me, but I don’t need Mercedes Benz to certify or assure me in any way that someone has owned or leased the car before me; the odometer will certify that to me perfectly adequately.

Here’s a thing about lots of car company ads.  They tell us that they will give a certain interest rate or a certain set of lease terms to “well qualified buyers”.  OK, that’s great; now I know what Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos can get as terms from your company if they choose only to buy a car and not to pay cash and buy the whole damned company.  Can you please:

1. Define “well qualified buyer”.  What percentage of people who walk into a showroom turn out to be “well qualified”?
2. Give out the terms for a “moderately qualified buyer” and maybe even for a “bottom-of-the-barrel buyer”.

Little Caesars is the “Official Pizza of the NFL” this year; they obviously out-pizzaed the Hut to earn that designation.  Little Caesars makes miserable pizza AND it also assaults game viewers with stupid ads too.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  That is quite the exacta there…

Jack Links beef jerky shows some guys in a lavatory.  One guy is eating beef jerky in there which is nauseating at best.  Then “Sasquatch” comes into the restroom and starts peeing like a firehose until he knocks a urinal off the wall with the force of his elimination.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  I am never going to buy a Jack Links product – – ever.

Amazon has an ad where a guy decides to get some “early Holiday shopping” done.  He receives a box with the Amazon.com logo on it which contains some unidentifiable object in it.  Then he goes and jumps off a dock into waters with ice floes still floating in the water.  That’s it; that’s the ad.  And that is supposed to get me to go to Amazon.com and order something early for my Holiday shopping?  I don’t think so.

I know this ad has been on the list before, but they keep running the same one year after year.  I refer here to the “Kars-4-Kids” ad where a “rock group” of untalented kids sing the same annoying jingle that has been around since forever.  It is probably only a rumor, but some folks think that Julius Caesar was stabbed to death because he would not stop singing that outrageous tune.  The “music” in this ad is so bad I am compelled to issue the following warning:

• Warning:  Wherever those “musicians” are performing this song or any other song, that area will be designated as an “International Talent-Free Zone.”

Who thought the idea of a buffalo that grew wings and speaks English was an interesting character to introduce in ads for Buffalo Wild Wings – – Get it???.  Let me be clear; Buffalo Wild Wings is a horrendous place to go and try to watch an important sporting event; it is needlessly loud and often offensive.  It would take some brilliant advertising campaign to get me to go there for a game.  These ads assure I will not go there to watch any sporting event of any kind.

Lume Deodorant cream aired an ad where a woman describes in complete detail her problem areas as:

• “… pits, underboob, sideboob, thigh folds, butt crack…”
• Memo to Ad Execs:  I just wish she would go and take a shower.

Burger King had an ad for various sorts of combo meals; you pick the kind of sandwich you want as the “main course”.  There is nothing unusual here; no big deal.  Except, these were all “bacon combos” and one of the choices was an “Impossible Burger” – – with bacon.  Really …???

Also in the “fast food category” is the Taco Bell ad where they set up a counter and a kitchen in Davante Adams’ house so he could always have immediate access to Taco Bell.  That is beyond stupid…

Old Spice ran an ad that has a guy in a bathrobe going to a “club” to address some women at a table.  He wants to know if one of the women there has used his Old Spice Body Wash.  She says of course she did because she would not let hotel soap touch her precious skin.

• Memo to Precious Skin Lady:  If you are that worried about hotel soap, pack whatever you need and bring it from home.  It’s not difficult.

The insurance companies never fail to make this annual compendium.  I guess the reason is that the product being sold by the various companies is basically the same from vendor to vendor and it would not be particularly attention-grabbing to have someone drone on about coverages and deductibles and exclusions and …  So, someone in the ad world decided many years ago to create “humorous ads” for insurance products.  At first, there were some clever ones like the gecko and the cavemen and “What are you wearing, Jake from State Farm?”  Uhh… Khakis…”  Those days seem to be nothing but fond memories as we look at today’s insurance ad creations.

Progressive Insurance a while back created a cast of characters for their ads, and I guess the underlying thinking for that cast of characters was for each one to be more annoying than the ones preceding it.  This year, Progressive introduced a new character, “TV Dad”.  Not only did he live down to the standard of being more annoying than any of the other Progressive characters, but he is also even more annoying than “LIMU the Emu – – and Doug”.  Now that was a difficult limbo bar to get under – – but Progressive did.

Speaking of LIMU the Emu and Doug, they introduced a kid to their ads this year.  Basically, he is a mini-version of Doug with a moustache and a tiny toy auto that he drives.

• Memo to Ad Execs:  As the kid rides off in his toy car, Doug tells him to “Stay off the freeway.”  I often tell the kid at that point to “Go play in traffic!”

The “Bad Ads” listing would not be complete without an entry from the beer makers.  This year, Bud Light put together an ad where Peyton Manning goes to a bar and orders a round of Bud Lights for the bar.  Celebratory shouting ensues as Manning tosses beers to other patrons and then out of nowhere he is joined by Emmitt Smith as simultaneous tossers of beer cans to the masses.  Can you imagine the clean-up mess in that bar as about 50 people open cans of Bud Light that have been thrown to them that they caught – – presumably on the fly?  That establishment will smell of stale beer for a month after that event.

The ads for JG Wentworth – – call 877-CashNow – – are anything but entertaining or attractive, but they make this list because they advertise a service that can actually be harmful to folks who use it.  JG Wentworth will buy out a person’s annuity; and in many cases, people purchased an annuity or had one purchased for them as a means to provide cash in retirement.  Selling one out to JG Wentworth to satisfy some real-time craving can come back to haunt the seller in his/her golden years.  I cringe at those ads.

“Bad Ads” is traditionally the final rant of the year out of Curmudgeon Central.  Having reflected on the Bad Ads for 2023, it is comforting to know that as the calendar turns to 2024, the advertising world will continue to provide materials for another year-ending event 12 months from now.  I won’t need to wait until Spring for any sort of “renewal”.  In mid-February there will be a huge number of Super Bowl ads and surely somewhere in that compendium will be the start of next year’s list.  And since 2024 will be an “Election Year”, I know that I and everyone else will be inundated with political ads next year.  Just a thing to remember here:

• Any objective truth represented in a political ad is there by accident at best.

Based on the contents of this and previous “Bad Ads” rants, I hope that these words from novelist Norman Douglas are not accurate:

“You can tell the ideals of a nation by its advertisements.”

Happy New Year, everyone.  Stay safe and stay well in 2024.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

William Shakespeare wrote:

“Better three hours too soon than a minute too late.”

That directive applies today because even though the calendar declares today as a Thursday, this will be an early edition of Football Friday.  Had this edition not shown up early, it would have been a week late.  So, I’ll just call this a Sort of Football Friday and begin in the normal way by reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College = 0-0-0   =>  Season = 19-9-0
• NFL = 1-2-0   =>   Season = 19-21-0
• Parlays = 1-1  Profit = $42   =>  Season = 9-14  Loss = $88

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Florida State/ACC showdown is coming.  The Seminoles have filed a lawsuit against their own conference seeking to extricate themselves from that conference.  There is no question that Florida State is the “big dog” in the ACC when it comes to football, only Clemson’s stature rivals Florida State’s.  And now the “big dog” wants out…

If somehow there is no reconciliation here, this matter looks to me as if it will play out over a LONG period of time.  Florida State filed its suit less than a week ago and already there is an ACC action seeking to have the conference select the venue of the trial proceedings.  There are probably law firms from Virginia to Florida salivating over the idea of getting a piece of the available billable hours here.

The legal costs to both sides would seem to provide a reason for settlement here.  Spending on legal representation is a “sunk cost”; there is little likelihood of ever recovering those funds.  Settlement/reconciliation would be a “hefty cost”, but it can also be money spent in order for the two sides to “get on with their lives”.

The Seminoles want out; the ACC fears that losing its best football program will do severe damage to the conference itself.  And yet, there must be some point at which Florida State becomes a sufficiently annoying thorn under the thumbnail that the conference begins to view the matter as a sufficient pain in the ass that it wants to end the conflict.  The ACC “grant of rights” that seemingly binds the conference together runs through 2036.  I cannot believe that Florida State will be a member of the ACC that far into the future.  As I said earlier this week, I don’t know where they will wind up, and I don’t know when it will happen, but this is not a relationship that can be saved.

One of the minor bowl games – – the Las Vegas Bowl – – produced a result that could lead to some interesting college football news.  Northwestern beat Utah 14-7 in that game meaning that Northwestern finished the season 8-5.  That may not sound like much but recall that at the beginning of August, Northwestern fired its long-term head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, over a hazing scandal.  The school needed a head coach, and it would have been unseemly to name one of the assistants as the head coach if the assistant had been on the football staff while the alleged hazing was going on.  So, Northwestern handed what looked like a sack of wet goat sh*t to “the new guy” – David Braun – who had just taken a job at Northwestern having come from the job of defensive coordinator at Division 1-AA North Dakota St.

To say that Northwestern qualifying for a bowl bid – let alone beating a decent Utah team in a bowl game – was not a prevalent thought in suburban Chicago back in August.  But that is what happened, and David Braun now has some thinking to do.  He is probably going to lose more than a couple of his assistants when the euphoria of the season wears off and the memories of the hazing allegations return to the headlines.  What David Braun needs to think about is simple:

• Should he stay at Northwestern – where he will surely get a decent offer as their head football coach – or should he use this performance as a way to get another job in a place where there ought to be fewer off-field distractions and much less acrimony surrounding the program?

Were I in his position, I would thank the Northwestern Board of Trustees for the confidence they have shown in me but I would choose to move on to calmer waters that may also be greener pastures.  But that’s just me…

 

College Football Games This Week:

 

The better bowl games tend to cluster around New Year’s Day and this year is no exception.  The reason I do not make selections for most bowl games is because there are far too many intangible factors to weigh not the least of which is that lots of the best players on various teams over the course of the season will voluntarily sit out a minor bowl game looking to avoid injury prior to the NFL Draft in April.  There are some matchups that might be interesting in terms of viewing this week and of course there will be the semi-finals of the CFP on Monday night.

(Fri Afternoon) Notre Dame – 6.5 vs. Oregon St (41.5):  There has been a lot of line movement for this game.  The spread opened with Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite and the Total Line opened at 47.5 points.  Both teams finished the year in the Top 20 in whatever poll you favor.  Neither team will have their starting quarterback nor their #1 running back for the game.  Clearly, that is sufficient reason not to make a pick here, but this is a game worth watching even if it is the “Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl”.

(Fri Nite) Missouri vs Ohio St. – 3 (49):  The Buckeyes’ starting QB this year, Kyle McCord, entered the transfer portal when the season closed and so Ohio St will be under the direction of sophomore, Devin Brown for the game.  Brown appeared in 5 games – briefly – in 2023 and posted these stats:

• 12 of 22 for 197 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

The best storyline for the game is probably Mizzou RB, Cody Schrager who started his career at Missouri as a walk-on and this year was named to the All SEC Team as the running back.

(Sat Noon) Ole Miss vs Penn St. – 5 (48):  Both teams come to the game with 10-2 records; that alone makes the game interesting.  However, there is an even more interesting aspect to this game.  Land Kiffin has Ole Miss playing a fast and loose offensive system that wins games by outscoring opponents.  The Rebels rank 15^th in the country in Total Offense per game (455.4 yards per game) and 19^th in the country in Scoring Offense (34.8 points per game).  Penn St. relies on its defense; the Nittany Lions rank 1^st in the nation in Total Defense allowing only 223.3 yards per game and rank 3^rd in the nation in Scoring Defense allowing only 11.4 points per game.

(Mon Afternoon) Liberty vs Oregon – 17 (67):  Last year, Tulane was the so-called Group of Five team to get a New Year’s Day bowl bid and Tulane went and won the game.  Can Liberty maintain that “tradition”?

(Mon Evening) Alabama vs Michigan – 2.5 (44.5):  After two years of embarrassing losses in the CFP, Michigan has the motivation, the depth, the talent and the experience to win it all this year.  Alabama almost always over the past 15 years has had all that stuff and has indeed “won it all” in the past.  Michigan has played with a lead for almost the entirety of the 2023 season so it might be interesting to see what the Wolverines might do should Alabama get a lead in the game.

(Mon Nite) Texas – 4.5 vs Washington (64.5):  I think Texas is the better team here because I think the Washington pass defense is vulnerable.  The Huskies rank 123^rd in the country in passing defense, allowing 263.2 yards per game.  Conversely, Washington leads the nation in passing offense (343.8 yards per game), but the Texas pass defense is a bit stingier allowing 241 yards per game.  I like Washington QB, Michael Penix, Jr. to keep this game close to the end; I’ll take Washington plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I ran across an interesting stat this week.  The New England Patriots are poised to set an NFL record this year.  So far in 2023, the Pats have not had a 100-yard rusher in a game, nor have they had a 100-yard receiver in a game.  No team has ever completed a 16-game or a 17-game season without at least one such performance:

• The Colts had that happen to them in 1982 – – but that was a “strike season” and consisted of only 9 games.
• The ‘Skins had that happen to them in 1977 – – but was back in the days when the NFL regular season was only 14 games.

The Patriots have now played 15 games in the 2023 regular season without a 100-yard performance by a runner or a pass catcher.  What Snuffy Smith was wont to say in the comic strips applies now to the Pats:

• “Time’s a-wasting…”

Last week, I watched the Steelers/Bengals game and heard Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge do that game.  Since there were no other games on at the time and since I had no social distractions, I watched the whole thing without “interference”.  That was the first time I heard that tandem on the mic and I liked what I heard.

• Noah Eagle is the son of Ian Eagle.  I have always liked Ian Eagle doing play-by-play in football and/or in basketball.  The adage that the apple does not fall far from the tree certainly applies here; Noah Eagle is going to be a very good play-by-play guy for many years to come; he is only 26 years old.
• I have heard Todd Blackledge in the past – – but not recently as I recall.  He has never managed to find his way to the head of the class as a color analyst either at CBS or at ESPN.  That is a shame because he presents the game to viewers calmly and rationally without histrionics or needless chatter.
• Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge make for an excellent broadcast pairing.

Let me pose a rhetorical question here.  Which “old fossil” – – in NFL terms that means anyone who has been around the league for about 10 years – – is playing better:

1. Mike Evans:  In his 10^th year in the NFL, he has started every game with the Bucs and caught 73 passes for 1163 yards and a league-leading 13 TDs.
2. Joe Flacco:  He was called back into the league off his man-cave couch after Thanksgiving for a 16^th season in the NFL when the Browns desperately needed a QB.  He has started 4 games; the Browns are 3-1 in those games.  Flacco has averaged 326.8 yards per game passing with 10 TDs and 7 INTs.

You make the call …

Let me move on to a review of last week’s games:

Rams 30  Saints 22:  The Saints made a game of it in the fourth quarter scoring 15 of their 22 points then, but the Rams dominated the game.  The Saints’ running game was a no-show; 35 yards on 16 carries.  Also, the Saints went for it 3 times on fourth down and failed to convert any of those attempts.  The Rams’ total offense in the game was 458 yards.  Rams are now well positioned for a playoff run with an interesting schedule in the next two weeks:

• At Giants – – Rams should be a touchdown favorite here
• At Niners – – will the Niners have anything to play for?

Steelers 34  Bengals 11:  The Steelers’ offense seemed to regain consciousness here gaining 397 yards in the game.  Mason Rudolph threw for 290 yards and 2 TDs.  Jake Browning accumulated yardage but also threw 3 INTs.  George Pickens had a huge day catching 4 passes for 195 yards and 2 TDs.  The result of this game is that both teams now have their playoff hopes on life support.  Neither is mathematically eliminated; neither is anywhere near likely to get in.

Raiders 20  Chiefs 14:  This game has one of the oddest stat sheets ever.  The Raiders won the game despite having only 48 yards passing in the game and being outgained by more than 100 yards in the game and not scoring an offensive TD in the game.  The Raiders did not even attempt a pass in the second half of the game.  The Chiefs had the ball for more than 34 minutes.  The turning point was a span of 7 seconds late in the second quarter.  First, the Chiefs bungled a direct snap from center to running back Isaiah Pacheco which resulted in a Scoop and Score TD for the Raiders.  On the first offensive play after the kickoff, Patrick Mahomes threw a Pick Six.  The Raiders’ defense was able to parlay those scores into a victory.  The Raiders could win the AFC West if they win out and the Chiefs lose out.

Bills 24  Chargers 22:  Recall that I said the Chargers could experience the football version of Wall Street’s “dead cat bounce”.  The Chargers dominated time of possession and won the turnover battle 3-0.  Still, that was not enough for a win.  The Bills will make the playoffs if they win out; here is the remaining schedule for the Bills:

• Vs. Pats – – should be a solid favorite here
• At Dolphins – – Maybe the winner is NFC East champion as well as a playoff participant?

Eagles 33  Giants 25:  The Eagles outgained the Giants 465 yards to 292 yards; that difference usually produces an outcome that is more lopsided than a “one-score game”.  Let me give you a flavor of the imbalance on the stat sheet:

• Eagles’ Time of Possession = 34:38   Giants’ Time of Possession = 25:22
• Eagles’ First Downs = 28   Giants’ First Downs = 14
• Eagles’ Offensive plays = 74   Giants Offensive plays = 59

The Eagles led 20-3 at halftime but a Giant’s TD in the third quarter followed by a Pick Six thrown by Jalen Hurts closed the gap to 20-18.  The fourth quarter was a nail-biter despite the statistical imbalance.  The 2023 Eagles are the masters of “winning ugly”.  As of this morning their record is 11-4 but their point differential for the season is only +26.  This win coupled with the Cowboys’ loss to the Dolphins puts the Eagles in first place in the NFC East.

Ravens 33  Niners 19:  The Ravens dominated this game on offense and on defense despite the stat sheet saying that the Niners outgained the Ravens by 87 yards.  Lamar Jackson accounted for 297 yards from scrimmage (passing + running) and 2 TDs.  The Ravens’ defense intercepted 5 passes in the game.

Browns 36  Texans 22:  The Browns and the Cowboys have the same record; there is lots of talk about the Cowboys being a Super Bowl participant; there is little to no talk about the Browns being part of that game.  Amari Cooper was the dominant player in this game:

• 11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs

The Browns led 36-7 with 12 minutes left in the game.  The Texans got two meaningless TDs to make the game appear closer than it was.  The Texans remain tied with the Jags and the Colts in the AFC South race despite this loss because the Jags and Colts both lost last weekend too.

Lions 30  Vikes 24:  The Lions have won the NFC North for the first time since 1993.  The Vikes were driving for a potential game-winning TD in the final minute of the game, but the Lions’ defense intercepted a Nick Mullens pass at the Lions’ 5 yardline to seal the deal for the Lions.  That was Mullens’ 4^th INT for the day.  Mullens did throw for 411 yards in the game which is what kept the game close because the Vikes’ total rushing offense for the day was 17 yards on only 11 rushing attempts.

Packers 33  Panthers 30:  This game was as even on the stat sheet as it was on the scoreboard.  The Packers had the ball late in the 4^th quarter and were able to get into field goal range and converted that play to provide the margin of victory with 19 seconds left on the clock.  The Packers can still make the playoffs in the NFC with this win.

Falcons 29  Colts 10:  Taylor Heinicke got the start at QB for the Falcons and produced 406 yards on offense.  Gardner Minshew had one of his “lesser performances” leading the Colts to only 262 yards on offense.  The Falcons are only one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South as of this morning.

Seahawks 20  Titans 17:  Here is a taste of how even this game was:

• Seahawks’ First Downs = 21   Titans’ First Downs = 23
• Seahawks’ 3^rd down conversions = 7 of 13   Titans’ 3^rd down conversions = 6 of 12
• Seahawks Total Offense = 273 yards   Titans’ Total Offense = 287 yards
• Seahawks’ Avg Gain per play = 4.6 yards   Titans’ Avg Gain per play = 4.5 yards

The Titans took a 17-13 lead with 3 minutes to play in the game, but the Seahawks were able to get the game winning TD from Geno Smith with a minute left to play.

Jets 30  Commanders 28:  It was Jacoby Brisset to the rescue for the Commanders again this week.  The Commanders trailed 27-7 at halftime; Brisset entered the game midway in the 3^rd quarter and led the team to three TDs to take the lead at 28-27 with about 5 minutes to play.  The Jets were able to maneuver themselves into field goal range to kick a game-winning 54-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.  The Jets had the ball for more than 36 minutes in the game and outgained the Commanders by 136 yards and still needed last second heroics to win this game.  Wow …!

Bucs 30  Jags 12:  Don’t look now but the Bucs have won 4 games in a row and the Jags have lost 4 games in a row.  If you saw that coming sometime before Thanksgiving, raise your hand.  If the season ended today, both teams would be playoff-bound.  The Bucs led this game 30-0 in the third quarter; the game was a rout.

Bears 27  Cards 16:  The Bears dominated the game leading 21-0 in the second quarter and 24-10 in the 4^th quarter.  The Bears accumulated 420 yards on offense; Justin Fields threw for 170 yards and ran for another 97 yards in the game.  The Bears’ record this morning is 6-9 and they are not yet mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoffs, but I have not been able to figure out what their road to a playoff slot would look like.  Interestingly, with that 6-9 record, the Bears’ point differential for the season is only minus-31 points.  As a reference, the Jets are also 6-9 this year and the Jets point differential is minus-84 points.

Dolphins 22  Cowboys 20:  The Dolphins scored 1 TD in this game and kicked 5 field goals – – the last one as time expired – – for a narrow win at home.  The Cowboys’ road woes continued here; they are 7-0 at home and only 3-5 on the road.  The Dolphins’ win keeps them atop the NFC East for this week.  However, if the Dolphins were to lose this weekend on the road against the Ravens and if the Bills win this weekend over the Pats in Buffalo, that will set up the Bills and Dolphins in Week 18 where the winner is the AFC East champion, and the loser is a wildcard team.  Should it come down to this, that Week 18 matchup will be in Miami where the Dolphins are 7-1 this year.

Pats 26  Broncos 23:  The Pats led 23-7 to start the 4^th quarter but the Broncos rallied to tie the game 23-23 with about 3 minutes left to play in the game.  The Pats managed to get to a point where they had a 56-yard field goal try to win the game with 7 seconds left in the game.  That kick was good, and the Pats won only their 4^th game of the year.  The Broncos are not eliminated from the AFC playoffs as a result of this loss, but their road to the playoffs is a winding and treacherous one to be sure.

 

NFL Games this Week:

 

Four NFC teams have guaranteed themselves a slot in the playoffs.  The Eagles and Cowboys will both participate but it is not yet determined which will be the NFC East champion and which will be a wildcard team.  As of this morning, the Eagles hold a 1-game lead over the Cowboys.  The Lions and the Niners are both in the playoffs as winners of their respective divisions.

Only two of the AFC playoff positions are filled as of now.  The Ravens are in even though they have not clinched the AFC North title and the Dolphins are also in under the same circumstances.

An announcement came yesterday that the Broncos would bench Russell Wilson for the last two games of the season and will start Jarrett Stidham in those games.  The justification for this is to “preserve their financial flexibility in the coming offseason.”  Remember, the Broncos are not eliminated from this year’s playoffs.  Here is the explanation from a report at NFL.com:

“One key reason behind the switch is financial … Wilson has a $37 million injury guarantee for 2025 that becomes fully guaranteed in March. Sitting the QB the final two weeks to ensure he doesn’t suffer a catastrophic injury provides the Broncos financial flexibility if Sean Payton and Co. decide to move on from the 35-year-old quarterback in 2024. It’s not a done deal, but the late-season benching is a strong indicator Denver will end the Wilson ride after two seasons.

“Wilson is due $39 million fully guaranteed in 2024.”

There is no Monday Night Football this week; the NFL games are on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

(Thurs Nite) Jets at Browns – 7.5 (34.5):  I guess the Jets will stick with Trevor Siemian as their QB this week after the Jets scored 30 points last week.  Problem is simple:

• Last week, the Jets played the Commanders with the worst defense in the NFL this year.
• This week the Jets play the Browns whose defense is among the best in the NFL this year.

There is no question who the QB for the Browns will be here; that would be Joe Flacco.  I suspect that he will find it difficult to torch the Jets’ defense the way he has some of the Browns’ recent opponents, but the Browns will win the game and secure a playoff spot in the process.

(Sat Nite) Lions at Cowboys – 6 (54): This is the Game of the Week matching two teams who will be in the NFC playoffs and who bring a combined record of 21-9 to the kickoff.   In terms of the intangibles, this game should go to the Cowboys.  The Lions clinched their division for the first time in 30 years last week; a small letdown is to be expected notwithstanding the fire in Coach Dan Campbell’s belly.  The game is in Dallas where the Cowboys are undefeated in 2023.  The Cowboys need this win if they still harbor hope for an NFC East title and/or an overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs.  Now for the football part of the equation, the Lions’ pass defense is a weak spot.  Last week, Nick Mullens threw for 400+ yards against the Lions (see above); I don’t see the Lions holding Dak Prescott and company to a meager offensive showing.  The Total Line here is a bit higher than I would expect but I will avoid an UNDER selection here; however, I do like the Cowboys to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Ravens – 3.5 (47):  I thought about this game as the Game of the Week.  This could be a letdown game for the Ravens after they dismantled the Niners last week.  This game could be difficult for the Dolphins in that it is the second game of a very tough 3-game sequence in their schedule – – Cowboys last week, Ravens this week, Bills next week.  There is also a “weather trend” at work here.

• Since 2017, the Dolphins are 1-17 in games where the temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees or below.
• The weather forecast has the high temperature on Sunday in Baltimore at 45 degrees.

Pats at Bills – 12 (40.5):  The Bills need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive; the Pats are playing out the string.  I do not like the fact that the Bills needed to rally to beat a bad Chargers team last week, but they should have their act together at home here and win the game.  But there is no way I would play this at a double-digit spread.

Falcons at Bears – 3 (38):  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  CBS Sports gives the Falcons a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs; CBS Sports gives the Bears a “less than 1.0% chance of making the playoffs.  That is enough for me.

Titans at Texans – 4.5 (43):  The Texans beat the Titans a couple of weeks ago in a close game.  Will CJ Stoud be able to play and if so, will he be able to play to the level he established earlier this year?  Will Levis may or may not be back for the Titans; that is another issue to consider.  The Texans need a win a lot more than do the Titans who are mathematically eliminated from the AFC playoffs.

Raiders at Colts – 3.5 (44):  The Raiders (7-8) need this win to keep their longshot odds to make the playoffs alive.  Similarly, the Colts (8-8) need to win to assure themselves a shot at the division title next week.  The Raiders’ defense dominated the Chiefs last week (see above); was that performance based on emotion or has the defense figured out how to play better?  At the same time, the Raiders’ OL stepped up significantly in that game.  The OL has been a weak point all season long.  This is the second straight road game for the Raiders, but I am counting on that defensive front to make life miserable for Gardner Minshew here; I’ll take the Raiders plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Panthers at Jags – 6.5 (38):  Trevor Lawrence hurt his shoulder last week – – adding to his concussion and ankle injuries.  For insurance, the Jags signed Matt Barkley in case Lawrence cannot go and CJ Beathard gets hurt.  Color me unimpressed with that roster move.  The Jags need to break a 4-game losing streak; for a team with such a need, the best scheduling twist available is to draw the Panthers…

Rams – 4.5 at Giants (43.5):  The Rams are playing very well and have a playoff slot in their crosshairs.  The Giants’ defense has come around, but the Giants’ offense is a hot mess at best.  It is a long trip and a body-clock game for the Rams; that is why I am not making a selection here.

Cards at Eagles – 11 (48):  I toyed with this as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Eagles are in the playoffs no matter what; the Cards have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now.  Last week, I said the Eagles should not be 13.5-point favorites over a USFL team; they have the talent to beat the Cards by several TDs, but they have had that sort of a talent advantage in several games earlier this year and not delivered.  Cards’ coach, Jonathan Gannon, returns to the Linc to play his team from last year.  I am tempted to take the OVER here – – but will not.

Saints at Bucs – 2.5 (42.5):  Baker Mayfield’s contract is one-year and $4M.  He has earned that money several times over already.  His contract calls for a $1M bonus if the Bucs win their division – – and beating the Saints here will assure the Bucs that title.  Motivation anyone …?

Niners – 13.5 at Commandeers (48):  Kyle Shanahan spent some less-than-fully-pleasant time at FedEx Field as the offensive coordinator of the ‘Skins.  Chase Young was on the Commanders’ roster until he was traded away at the end of October.  They will both be motivated to do well on Sunday.  The Commanders stink; they may or may not be better than the Panthers at this point of the season. Even if they start Jacoby Brisset to experience his magic for the entire game, I don’t think it will matter.  I think there will be scoring in the game so give me the OVER here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Seahawks – 3.5 (42):  I really think that the key question for this game is:

• Can Mason Rudolph play the way he did last week again this week?

If he does, the Steelers will win the game outright.  If not, the Steelers will lose, be out of the playoffs, and will face pressure to win their final game next week to avoid the first Steelers’ losing season since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.

Bengals at Chiefs – 7 (44):  Last week when the Eagles were 13.5-point favorites over the Giants, I said I would not make the Eagles that big a favorite over a USFL team.  Well, the Chiefs inspire about that same level of confidence this week.  The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 6 games and instead of improving as the season progressed, the Chiefs’ performances have stagnated.  The Bengals are not nearly the powerhouse many folks expected this year, but the Bengals are not coming apart at the seams.  Back in August, this looked like a sure-fire contender for Game of the Week.  Hah!

Chargers at Broncos – 3 (37.5):  The spread opened at 6 points and was steady there until yesterday’s announcement about the benching of Russell Wilson for the rest of the season.  So, the QB matchup this week will be Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham.  If that inspires you to wager real money on this game, you probably need an intervention.

(Sun Nite) Packers at Vikes – 2 (46):  The loser of this game can make Caribbean cruise reservations for January.  The Vikes get lots of yardage with Nick Mullens at QB but seem to flame-out in the Red Zone.  They need to find a cure for that – – quickly.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Washington +4.5 against Texas
• Cowboys – 6 over Lions
• Raiders +3.5 against Colts
• Niners/Commanders OVER 48

            Here are two Money Line Parlays just to add to the fun:

• Bills @ minus-700
• Raiders @ +165         $100 wager to win $203.

And …

• Cowboys @ minus-260
• Eagles @ minus-500
• Niners @ minus-525             $100 wager to win $98.

Finally, some words of wisdom from former Tennessee coach, Bowden Wyatt:

“My advice to defensive players: Take the shortest route to the ball and arrive in a bad humor.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As they say in France, if you are une personne d’un certain âge – someone of a certain age – you will recall ABC’s Wide World of Sports and the phrase:

“The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat…”

The NBA’s Detroit Pistons have known nothing but the agony of defeat since October 28, 2023; that is 60 days ago for those of you keeping score at home.  In that span, the Pistons have lost 27 consecutive basketball games setting a new single-season record for futility.  To put a bit of perspective on that “dry spell”, consider that the Texas Rangers had not yet won the World Series when the Pistons last won an NBA game.

The previous NBA record for single-season futility belonged jointly to the Sixers and the Cavs; as of this morning, the Pistons own that record outright.  Note that I have repeatedly referred to this current losing streak as the “single-season record”; that is because the record for most consecutive losses stands at 28 games and that one belongs to the Sixers across the boundaries of the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 seasons.  You should recall that was a time when the Sixers were in the throes of “The Process” where losing carried a cachet and not a stigma.

The Pistons can claim part ownership of that ultimate losing streak with a loss in their next game.  Here is a look at the Pistons’ schedule for the next two weeks:

• Dec 28:  AT Boston – – current record 23-6 (best record in the NBA)
• Dec 30:  VS Toronto – – current record 11-18 (would set the new record)
• Jan 1:  AT Houston – – current record 15-13
• Jan 3:  AT Utah – – current record 13-18
• Jan 5:  AT Golden State – – current record 15-15
• Jan 7:  AT Denver – – current record 22-10
• Jan 9:  VS Kings – – current record 17-12
• Jan 10:  VS Spurs – – current record 4-25

Things look bleak for the Pistons and their fans.  [Aside:  It would seem that Pistons’ fans have stood by the team in these dark days.  The Pistons have averaged 17,882 fans per game over 15 home games so far this season.]  If the Pistons do set a new record by losing at home to the Raptors, the fact that they would go on the road for their next 4 games is not a good sign at all.

It is too early to make full season projections, but consider this as a metric:

• Back in the 1970s when the Sixers set the full season mark for futility with a 9-73 record, that was a winning percentage of .110.
• Here in the 2023-203-24 season the Pistons have a winning percentage of .067.
• Moreover, the Spurs have a winning percentage of only .138.
• And the Wizards have a winning percentage of only .172.

When the Sixers set that mark back in the 70s, they had a new coach at the start of the season; he lasted 48 games; the team replaced him when the team record was 4-44.  The Pistons are not likely to replace their coach this year.  They just signed Coach Monty Williams to a 6-year contract with $78.5 M guaranteed; that would be huge buyout for the owners to swallow and that is far too much money for Williams to “leave on the table” by resigning.

Moving on …  This is the time of year when eligible voters for baseball’s Hall of Fame are preparing their ballots.  CBSSports.com had a piece recently that ran under this headline:

“Is Chase Utley a Hall of Famer?  Why glorious peak could get former Phillies star into Cooperstown”

I think the answer is “Yes, Chase Utley belongs in the Hall of Fame” and I believe that matter was settled in 2001 when the Veterans’ Committee voted to include Bill Mazeroski in the Hall of Fame.  Both Utley and Mazeroski played second base for more than 90% of their careers; so, comparisons of their stats are far more like apples-to-apples than they are apples-to-oranges.

• Mazeroski was the better fielder; he won a Gold Glove Award seven times in his career.  Utley never won a Gold Glove.
• Utley won the Silver Slugger Award four times in his career.  Mazeroski could not have won the award because it did not exist when he was playing MLB.

At the plate, Utley was clearly superior to Mazeroski with these career stats:

• Tenure in MLB:  Mazeroski = 17 years   Utley = 16 years
• Career Batting Average:  Mazeroski – .260  Utley = .275
• Career OBP:  Mazeroski = .299  Utley = .358
• Career OPS:  Mazeroski = .667   Utley = .823
• Bill Mazeroski never led the NL in any offensive category in his 17 years in the major leagues and his best season in runs scored was 71.
• Chase Utley never led the NL in any offensive category – – except hit by pitch – – in his 16 years in the major leagues but he scored more than 71 runs in 9 seasons.

My conclusion is simple.  If Bill Mazeroski is a member of the baseball Hall of Fame, then Chase Utley should also be a member of the baseball Hall of Fame.

Finally, since today involved a deep dive into some MLB stats, let me close with some words from Casey Stengel:

“A lot of people my age are dead at the present time.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is Boxing Day in many parts of the world.  The holiday was originally meant to be a day when gifts were given to the needy; today it is a public holiday celebrated as part of the festivities of the Christmas season.  Here in the US, Boxing Day is the day when folks pack into boxes the things they got for Christmas that they want to return; it is a high traffic/high revenue day for UPS and FedEx.  Happy Boxing Day to all …

Jerry Kill has had to step down as the head football coach at New Mexico St.  He had been the coach of the Aggies for only two years but in that time, he amassed a record of 17-11, which is a major improvement of football fortunes in that part of the world.  Coach Kill has been dealing with health issues related to epilepsy for more than a decade now and those issues caused him to resign as the coach at Minnesota in the middle of the 2015 season.

Coach Kill remained in the football world as a special assistant to various other coaches after taking a couple of years off to deal with his health.  He returned to the sidelines in 2021 at New Mexico State.  In his career, he has taken over several programs that were “in distress” and turned them around; his overall coaching record is 175-115.  Jerry Kill is 62 years old; he has earned his retirement.

•  Bonne chance Jerry Kill…

Sticking with the broad theme of college football coaches, the University of Colorado will offer a new course in its College of Media Communication and Information (CMCI).  The course number will be CMCI 4021, and the course title will be:

• “Prime Time: Public Performance and Leadership”

Yes, the course will be on how Coach Prime handles his celebrity status in addition to his head coaching responsibilities.  As part of the course description, the school catalog contains this information:

“The course will focus on helping college athletes explore how to manage their time in college, prepare for career, manage their celebrity, identify when best to speak into their profit center, advocate for worthy causes, coordinate with sports agents and how to interact with journalists and the media.”

No, Deion Sanders will not teach the course.  But would you be shocked to your foundations if you heard that he attended one of the classes to “give a lecture” or to demonstrate how to conduct a press event?  I expect that will happen at one point…

Staying in the realm of college football, Casey Thompson has entered the NCAA transfer portal.  If you are wondering why that is even marginally interesting, let me peel back a couple of layers of this announcement:

• When Thomson finds/selects a school, he will go there and be part of college football for a seventh season.  A redshirt year, an added year of eligibility due to COVID and whatever other arcane rules the NCAA applies to “eligibility” have seemingly given Thompson the athletic equivalent of tenure in college football.
• Thompson was at Texas from 2019 through 2021.
• Thompson was at Nebraska in 2022.
• Thompson was at Florida Atlantic in 2023.
• Quo vadis Casey Thompson?

Reacting to the news of Thompson’s entering the transfer portal, here is the assessment offered by humorist, Brad Dickson:

“Casey Thompson is going to return for his SEVENTH year of college. This ties the record of Bluto Blutarsky in ‘Animal House.’”

Switching gears and switching sports …  The LA Dodgers were clearly not content with signing Shohei Ohtani to a $700M contract – – much of it deferred compensation – – because they have also signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325M contract over the next 12 years.  Yamamoto has been dominant in Japanese leagues for the last several years, but he has never thrown a pitch in a Major League game.  The Dodgers have taken a hefty gamble here.

The magnitude of Ohtani’s contract raised eyebrows, but Ohtani is an established major league player who can pitch and play every day as a designated hitter.  In addition to receiving votes in his career for the Cy Young Award, Ohtani finished this year with the best OPS in the AL at 1.066.  One can think the Dodgers committed more resources than they should have to one player, but one cannot think Ohtani will be “a bust” – – save for injury of course.

Yamamoto’s deal is similarly surprising due to its magnitude, but it is made even more interesting by the Dodgers’ faith in their scouts who have seen him play in Japan and their conclusion that his talents will indeed translate to MLB.  For the record, the Dodgers are on the hook for $1.025B to these two players PLUS the Dodgers will pay Yamamoto’s Japanese team $50M in exchange for the playing rights to Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Deep pockets …

Finally, the following quotation from financier, J. P. Morgan, seems to have been a guiding principle for the LA Dodgers ownership:

“If it makes the slightest difference to you what it costs, don’t try it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………