The Sports Curmudgeon

Do you realize that the NBA regular season is half over?  It began on October 24, 2023, which was 13 weeks ago.  Other than the freshly minted In-Season Tournament – – no peeking, do you remember the two teams that played in the final game of that creation? – – has there been any real buzz about the league in the last 13 weeks?

Yesterday, something unusual happened in the NBA so let’s use that as an opportunity to talk about the NBA today.  Last year, the Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season with a record of 58-24.  Obviously, they made the playoffs with that record since five-eighths of the teams in the NBA make the playoffs these days.  The Bucks lost in the first round of those playoffs to the Heat and that was considered to be sufficiently unsatisfactory that the Bucks fired their coach from last year – – Mike Budenholzer – – and replaced him with Adrian Griffin.

Griffin had no head-coaching experience prior to taking over the Bucks but he had been an assistant in the NBA for about a decade.  The Bucks record as of this morning is 30-13 which is a winning percentage of .698.  And yesterday, the Bucks fired Adrian Griffin.

I said above that this was “unusual”.  It is sufficiently “unusual” to make me wonder about the motivation behind the decision.  Griffin’s contract with the Bucks was described as being a “multi-year deal” at $4M per year.  Given coaching salaries in the NBA these days, I doubt if there is any sort of financial dimension to the decision.

Days before the season opener, there was a reported confrontation between Griffin and Bucks’ assistant coach, Terry Stotts that resulted in the Bucks firing Stotts.  That incident may or may not have entered into the decision made yesterday but it seems strange that it would be allowed to percolate for 13 weeks if it were deemed to be anything close to a “firing offense” for the head coach.

The Bucks’ record of 30-13 as of today means that they and two other teams – – Timberwolves and Thunder – – share the distinction of having the second-best record in the NBA trailing only the Celtics by 3.5 games.  Those three teams are on pace to win 56 games in the regular season which would make them a shoo-in for the upcoming playoffs no matter who the coach is or is not.  There is more to this than meets the eye …

Now, since I mentioned the NBA and its standings today, I would be remiss – – and I would damage my street cred as a Certified Curmudgeon – – if I did not point out a couple of things at the bottom of the NBA standings.

• It was just over 50 years ago when the Sixers set the record for NBA futility in a season finishing with a record of 9-73.
• As of this morning, the Pistons record is 4-39; with that winning percentage, the Pistons are on pace to win a total of 7.6 games.
• When the Sixers set this ignominious record, they did not win their fifth game until they had lost 48 games.
• The Pistons’ coach – – Monty Williams – – is also in his first year with the Pistons and he is still as the Pistons’ coach with that performance.  Interesting …

Here is another item from the bottom of the NBA barrel this morning …  The Washington Wizards do not have a new coach this year; Wes Unseld, Jr. has been with the Wizards for the past two seasons and is under contract with the team through the 2024/2025 season.  As of this morning, the Wizards have the second-worst record in the league at 7-35. The interesting thing about the Wizards today has nothing to do with the fact that the team is not very good; the thing is that when Wes Unseld, Jr. was hired for the job, the buzz around the Washington area was that he was going to instill tough defense.

He has been on the job now for two-and-a-half years and as of this morning the Washington Wizards rank dead last in the NBA in points allowed per game (124.9 points per game allowed).  So much for the definition of “tough defense” …

One last NBA observation today …  The NY Knicks’ record this morning is 27-17 putting them on pace to win 50 games this year.  If they achieve that mark, it will be only the second time since 2000 that the team has won 50 games in a season.  What is equally interesting is that the Knicks seem to be doing this with defense.  As of this morning, the Knicks rank third in the NBA in points allowed per game (110.4 points per game).  The Knicks actually rank in the lower half of the NBA – – 16^th out of 30 teams – – in points scored per game and yet they project to be a 50-game winner this year.

Finally, since today referred to historical events in the NBA, let me close with this “definition” of history offered up by Leo Tolstoy:

“History is nothing but a collection of fables and useless trifles, cluttered up with a mass of unnecessary figures and proper names.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Being a fan of an NFL team ensures that the person adopting that status will experience stratospherically high emotions and abysmally low times as well.  Some of the low points are so dramatically deflating that they exist in the collective memory of a team’s fandom so fundamentally that they can be recalled with a simple phrase.  Consider:

1. Bears’ Fans can go decades on end without hearing anyone refer to a “Double
   Doink”.
2. Browns’ Fans all remember “The Drive”.  John Elway engineered a 98-yard drive with only a few minutes left in an AFC Championship Game with the Browns leading by a TD.  “The Drive” sent the game to OT and the Browns lost there.
3. Chiefs’ Fans are still embarrassed to be reminded of Abner Haynes winning the coin toss in an overtime playoff game and botching the choice by telling the referee “we’ll kick to the clock”.
4. Colts’ Fans remember well the “Second half onside kick” in the Super Bowl game against the Saints.
5. Cowboys’ Fans need only to hear the name “Leon Lett” before they bow their heads and shake their heads.
6. Dolphins’ Fans old enough to have witnessed the “Snowplow Game” are still frustrated by the result of the game and how it came to be known by that moniker.
7. Falcons’ Fans prefer never to recall leading in the third quarter of a Super Bowl game by the score of “28 to 3”.
8. Giants’ Fans vividly recall the botched handoff from Joe Pisarcik to Larry Czonka that led to the infamous “Miracle in the Meadowlands”.
9. Jets’ Fans all remember the “Butt Fumble”.  It may not have happened in a playoff context, but it was on national TV in prime time on Thanksgiving for all the world to see.
10. Pats’ Fans can be triggered by one of two phrases to recall their utter despair.  The two phrases refer to the same low-point; the phrases are “David Tyree” and/or “Helmet Catch”.  Those memories are all the more painful because they recall a Super bowl defeat.
11. Raiders’ Fans can debate which of two phrases is more galling.  Would it be “Immaculate Reception” or “Tuck Rule”?
12. Seahawks’ Fans feel a sharp pain every time the name “Malcom Butler” enters the conversation.

The above is not an exhaustive list; it is simply a compendium of the embarrassing and frustrating instances in the history of a dozen of the NFL franchises.  So, some of you are probably wondering why this is of any particular interest today.  After all, that Chiefs’ fans trigger point happened all the way back in 1962 when the team was still known as the Dallas Texans.

I bring it up today because one NFL fan base now has two disastrous moments etched in its collective memory and the same phrase will bring to the fore each and/or both of the two disasters.  As far as I can recall, this situation is not duplicated elsewhere; there was only one “Snowplow Game”; the “Tuck Rule” was only invoked once; there has only been one “Miracle in the Meadowlands”.  But as of this morning the following situation obtains:

• Bills’ Fans can be doubly haunted by two words – – “Wide right…”

In a Super Bowl game against the Giants in 1991, the Giants led the Bills 20-19 with about 10 seconds to go in the game.  The Bills set up to try a 47-yard field goal by Scott Norwood; the game was on the line.  Al Michaels was doing play-by-play for that game and when Norwood missed the field goal, Michaels’ call was “Wide right…”  It became a horrible memory for Bills’ fans all over western NY State.

• [Aside:  By missing that field goal, Norwood and the Bills created a record that cannot ever be broken – – although it may be equaled.  The eventual one-point margin of victory by the Giants in the game is the smallest possible margin of victory in a Super Bowl game because the final result cannot be that the game ends in a tie.]

And then there was the Bills/Chiefs playoff game last night.  With the Chiefs leading 27-24, the Bills set up to try a 44-yard field goal by Tyler Bass with less than two minutes left on the clock.  And the instant the ball left Bass’ foot, it started veering to the right and it too missed with plenty of distance, but it too was “Wide right…”  The only thing missing – – other than the field goal try itself of course – – was Al Michaels on the call.

Finally, since today has been all about despair, I’ll close with the definition of that word from the Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Despair:  An utter loss of hope; a feeling of uselessness.  Often brought about through contact with a greeter at Walmart.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Nelson Mandela said:

“If there is anything that would kill me, it is to wake up in the morning not knowing what to do.”

I have never had to confront that situation – – particularly on Fridays when I wake up knowing exactly what I am to do.  I need to compile a Football Friday.  And to get things rolling today, let me review last week’s ‘Betting Bundle”.

 

• College  =  0-0-0     Final Season total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  5-1-0      Season  =  26-27-0
• Money Line Parlays  1-1  Profit  = $93     Season  =  11-17   Profit  = $8

 

College Football Commentary:

 

There are no games or practices happening these days so reporting on college football has to rely on other events for content.  Let me give you a capsule summary of what is going on in three of the main sources of “news” related to college football:

1. Jim Harbaugh is interviewing for jobs outside of Ann Arbor and simultaneously negotiating with the University of Michigan for a contract extension there.  There are lots of moving parts here; but in the end, these events will likely produce more entropy than anything else.
2. Deion Sanders has gone silent for a couple of weeks.  When next he surfaces, he will need to make up for his public absence by saying something abjectly outrageous.
3. Some players have chosen to declare for the NFL Draft and other players have chosen to return to the college game next year – – as it has been in the past and as it shall be in the future.

There is one piece of interesting news related to small school college football.  Northwestern Oklahoma State is a Division II school in Alva, OK.  Yesterday, the head coach there – – Ronnie Jones – – announced that he has hired a new defensive coordinator.  That new addition to the football staff there is:

• Jerry Glanville.

Glanville is 82 years old and has been a head coach in the NFL, and at the Division 1-A college level.  Defense has always been his “specialty” along with his quirky habit of leaving tickets to games for Elvis at Will Call.  One of Glanville’s famous quotes was:

“I haven’t heard from Elvis since his daughter married Michael Jackson.  I think it killed him.”

 

NFL Commentary

 

Giants’ defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale, and Giants’ head coach, Brian Daboll are no longer colleagues.  There had been reports more than a month ago that the two men were not getting along; Daboll denied and dismissed those reports around Thanksgiving, but it now appears that there was plenty of truth in them.  In the last week, the NY Post reported that Martindale and Daboll had a “heated argument” and that Martindale “cursed out” Daboll as he stormed out of the Giants’ facility.  Interestingly, Martindale’s contract with the Giants has another year to go so there would appear to be a need for either rapprochement or legal intervention regarding contract details.

Last weekend, I was happy to hear Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge again as the voices for the Texans/Browns playoff game.  The last half hour or so of that telecast could not have been easy for those gentlemen; there was no mystery about the outcome.  And I think they did a very good job under less than riveting circumstances.

Last week, I said there was an irony in the fact that the Browns and the Texans would meet in the playoffs and that Deshaun Watson would not be the QB for either team.  Add to that the tidbit that Baker Mayfield – – run out of Cleveland by an owner who traded away a bunch of assets to acquire Watson from the Texans – – is now going on to the second round of the playoffs while the Browns are going on Caribbean cruises with their families.  Redemption stories like that one are usually found in Hollywood scripts…

This entire season has been one of redemption for Mayfield.  There was not a buzzing market for his services in the last offseason; he took the Bucs’ job on a 1-year deal at $4M with lots of incentives. It appears that he has already earned more than $2M in incentives with more possibly coming if the Bucs win this weekend.  In any event, there should be a lot more interest in his services this off-season than there was last year.  So, let’s pretend that you are an NFL GM, and your team is not one of the teams with a franchise QB.

• Where might Baker Mayfield fit into your vision for your team?

And while we are at it, add one other veteran QB to this thought experiment.

• Where might Joe Flacco fit into your vision for your team?

The only team I think that cannot even consider either Mayfield or Flacco for 2024 is the Cleveland Browns.  If Deshaun Watson is to be the starter there and if Deshaun Watson has a couple of bad games, it might be very disruptive having either Mayfield or Flacco in the locker room given their recent history with the Browns.  But you never know what jimmy Haslam will do next…

Last weekend we heard many, many times about the trade between the Lions and the Rams involving Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.  Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl Championship; Goff has led the Lions to their first division championship in 30 years and is one game removed from the NFC Championship Game.  But there was more to that trade, and I think I have tracked down the other draft choices accurately; in addition to the QB swap, the Lions got three early round draft picks that produced Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams.  I would say that trade helped both teams.

Here is an interesting stat I ran across:

• These are the first NFL playoffs since 1998 where there is no one named Manning or Brady as a QB on any roster.

Let me review the wildcard round games from last weekend.  There were lots of blowout games last week; only one game out of six was inside two scores.

Texans 45  Browns 14:  Even without two Pick Sixes by the Texans on two consecutive possessions by the Browns, this game was not in doubt.  The stats say it should have been closer, but watching the game never gave me the impression that the Browns were the better team on the field.  Here is a key stat from this game:

• Texans:  44 offensive plays, 8,1 yards per offensive play
• Browns:  70 offensive plays, 4.6 yards per offensive play

There was a sub headline on Sunday morning at CBSSports.com which said that CJ Stroud “added to his legacy” in this game.  Let’s not get too far ahead of reality here; CJ Stroud is in the process of building his reputation; anything resembling “his legacy” appears to be at least a decade into the future.

I pointed out last week that the Browns’ defense was not the same on the road as it was at home giving up 29.6 points per game on the road as opposed to 13.1 points per game at home.  That trend was carried on even accounting for the 14 points the Texans got on those two Pick Sixes.

Chiefs 26  Dolphins 7:   The stat sheet suggests that this game should have had a bigger margin.  Consider:

• Chiefs’ Time of Possession = 34:05  Dolphins’ Time of Possession = 25:55
• Chiefs on Third Down = 6 of 15   Dolphins on Third Down = 1 of 12
• Chiefs’ First Downs = 25   Dolphins’ First Downs = 13

The Dolphins’ only score was a 53-yard pass to Tyreek Hill with 14 minutes left in the second quarter.  At that point there were 44 minutes left in the game; here are the Dolphins’ possessions from that point on:

• 6 plays – – 21 yards – – 3:05 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 3 plays – – minus-10 yards – – 1:19 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – 17 yards – – 0:18 Time of Possession – – Halftime
• 3 plays – – 6 yards – – 1:39 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 9 yards – – 4:42 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 10 plays – – 53 yards – – 4:44 time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 12 plays – – 27 yards – — 1:36 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 4 plays – – 28 yards – – 1:08 time of Possession – – END OF GAME

So, in 44 minutes of playoff football, the Dolphins ran 47 plays gaining only 151 yards and they punted 3 times and turned the ball over on downs another 3 times.

The Dolphins’ accomplishments this year may have been overrated.  Against winning teams, the Dolphins were 1-5 in the regular season.  The high-powered Dolphins’ offense averaged 16.1 points per game against teams that made the playoffs and 35.6points per game against non-playoff teams.

Packers 48  Cowboys 32:  So much for the idea that 7^th seeds cannot beat 2^nd seeds …   If the Dolphins were shown to be a mirage (see above), then the Cowboys were exposed as a fraud.  Do not be fooled; this game was not nearly as close as a 16-point differential would lead you to believe; at one point in the 4^th quarter, the Packers led 48-16.  The Packers led 27-0 at the half and had the game on cruise control for the remainder.  For their first 6 possessions, the Packers scored 5 TDs and punted once.  Oh, and in that same stretch of the game they had a “Pick-Six”.  The Cowboys’ offensive stats this year were impressive, and they were wholly misleading:

• Cowboys led the league in scoring with 509 points – – but lots of those points came against the Giants (89 points) and the Commanders (83 points).
• Cowboys’ point differential of 194 points was second in the NFL but 135 of those “excess” points came against the Giants and the Commanders.
• Those stats are there and will remain there – – AND – – they are meaningless.

Dan Quinn, the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys was considered to be a “hot prospect” for the head coach openings this year.  He did himself no favors with the way his unit performed on the “big stage”.  On a day when the Cowboys’ offense generated over 500 yards on offense and converted 10 of 16 third-down tries, the Cowboys’ defense was a complete no-show for four quarters.  On the TD pass to Luke Musgrave at the end of the third quarter, there was no Cowboys’ defender in the same area code as the receiver.

Consider this:

• Packers’ Offensive Plays = 54 producing 41 points (Packers’ defense produced 7 points)
• Cowboys’ Offensive Plays = 89 producing 32 points

.  After the game, Mike McCarthy said the team was not ready to play on Sunday.  Serious question here:

• How can professional football players not be ready to play in a playoff game?

Packers’ RB, Aaron Jones was surely ready for the game.  He carried the ball 21 times for 118 yards and 3 TDs.  Just for fun, he also caught a pass for another 13 yards in the game.

Cowboys’ fans demonstrated what front-runners they are – – mirroring their favorite team – – by abandoning the stadium for about all of the fourth quarter here.  Late in the game, there were more “green and gold” colors in the crowd shots than there were “blue and silver”.

Lions 24  Rams 23:  If you are a fan or either team, you are either ecstatic (Lions’ fan) or you are disconsolate/tormented (Rams’ fan).  As a football fan, this was a great game for me because it was close from start to finish.  Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown put on a show here:

• Nacua:  9 receptions for 181 yards and 1 TD
• St. Brown:  7 receptions for 110 yards and 0 TDs

Bills 31  Steelers 17:  Josh Allen was Superman in this game; he threw for 3 TDs and rambled 52 yards on a broken play for another TD.  With RB, James Cook adding 85 yards from scrimmage and the Steelers’ defense producing no turnovers, the outcome was never seriously in doubt despite the stat sheet appearing to be balanced:

• Bills’ Total Offense = 368 yards   Steelers’ Total Offense = 324 yards
• Bills’ 3^rd Down Conversions = 5 of 12   Steelers’ 3^rd Down Conversions = 5 of 11
• Bills’ Offensive Plays = 66   Steelers’ Offensive Plays = 63

The Bills and Eagles played on November 26^th and the Bills lost that game in OT on a TD scamper by Jalen Hurts.  That loss left the Bills with a 6-6 record and raised the Eagles’ record to 10-1.  However, since that game the fortunes of the two teams have gone off on different vectors.  The Bills won their last 5 games in a row to make the playoffs and win their division; the Eagles lost 5 of their last 6 games, limped into the playoffs and made only a cameo appearance there due to this next result from last week.

Bucs 32  Eagles 9:  The collapse of the Eagles’ 2023/24 season was completed last Monday night.  The Eagles only ran the ball 15 times in the game and gained all of 42 yards; when these teams met in the regular season, the Eagles ran the ball for 200+ yards.  If that sort of game planning makes sense to you, I bow to your superior insights.  The Eagles’ secondary made Baker Mayfield look like the second coming of John Unitas; here is Mayfield’s stat line:

• 22 of 36 for 337 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs

But wait, there’s more …  The Eagles were 0 for 9 on 3^rd Down Conversions and 0 for 2 on 4^th Down Conversions.  It is a tossup in my mind which NFC team was the bigger embarrassment in last week’s playoff games – – the Eagles or the Cowboys.  Take your pick…

The Packers showing against the Cowboys has led some commentators to conclude that Jordan Love is the next Packers’ Hall of Fame QB in the footsteps of Brett Favre and then Aaron Rodgers.  I think that is a bit premature even as I acknowledge that Jordan Love has been nothing short of outstanding from the first week in November until now.  The following observation has no intent behind it regarding a shot at Jordan Love.  Nevertheless, in the midst of all the gushing enthusiasm over Jordan Loves’s performance recently, please keep this in mind:

• The Packers had Brett Favre as their QB for 17 seasons from 1992 through 2007.
• The Packers had Aaron Rodgers as their QB for full-time QB for 15 seasons from 2008 through 2022.
• Both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers deserve to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
• And yet, in that three-decade period with Hall of Fame leadership, the Packers took down only 2 – – as in TWO – – Super Bowl trophies.

I believe that jargon of the day calls for me to suggest to Packers’ fanboys to

• “Slow your roll …”

 

 

This Week’s Games:

 

This is the point in the NFL schedule where my rooting interest in outcomes of the games becomes more focused.  This is purely a personal opinion; I do not expect others to come at these games in a similar fashion.

From this vantage point in the season, I can assess the possible pairings for the Super Bowl game in 3 weeks.  For me, watching the Super Bowl is not about witnessing the football version of “The Little Engine That Could” or seeing some plucky group of underdogs/overachievers try for “the ultimate prize.  What I want to see is the two best teams possible meet in that game.  I say “two best teams possible” because it has happened that my perception of the “two best teams overall” have been in the same conference so they could not both take part in the Super Bowl.

So, notwithstanding any selections I am about to make against the spread or involving the Total Line, here are my “rooting preferences” for this week’s games:

1. Ravens over Texans
2. Niners over Packers
3. Lions over Bucs
4. Bills over Chiefs

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Texans at Ravens – 10 (43.5) :  The Texans have been nothing short of amazing this year after recording a 3-13-1 record a year ago.  Back in August/September, you could have gotten 200-to-1 odds on the Texans making it to the Super Bowl let alone winning it.  And here they are with that possibility still alive and well.  If CJ Stroud is not named the Offensive Rookie of the Year, he should demand a recount.  Last week, the Texans sliced and diced the normally stingy Browns’ defense; this week they take on the Ravens’ defense which allowed the fewest points of any team in the league in 2023 (16.5 points per game).  I think there are two key elements in this game:

1. Can the Texans protect CJ Stroud and avoid negative plays?
2. Can the Texans pressure Lamar Jackson and keep the Ravens’ passing game under a bit of control?

Lamar Jackson has been less-than-dominant in previous playoff games; his record has been 1-3 in the post-season.  And a major part of why he has been less than successful in the playoffs is that he has turned the ball over 7 times in playoff games.  The Ravens need to hope that does not happen this weekend.

Here is a trend to consider:

• The Texans have been underdogs in 8 games that Stroud has started this year.
• The Texans are 6-2 against the spread in those 8 underdog games”.
• Stroud is starting here, and the Texans are underdogs …

I like the Texans plus the points here and I like this game to go OVER; put those selections in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat 8 :15 PM ET) Packers at Niners – 9.5 (50):  Eight teams continue their seasons into this weekend; seven of the eight are playing QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft in whatever year those QBs were eligible.  The only exception is Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, taken with the final draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.  The Niners “philosophy” is to get a lead and then have their pass rushers torment the opposing QB.  The Packers faced a team with the same “philosophy” last week; that is how the Cowboys like to play.  So, what the Packers did was to get a lead by scoring a TD with a dominant opening drive that went 75 yards in 8 minutes.  If the Packers can replicate that sort of early success here, we will get to see if Brock Purdy can win from behind instead of always winning from the front.  The Niners’ offense this year has been solid; they average 28.9 points per game; so, getting a lead on the Niners may be easier said than done.  The Packers were slightly more than a full TD underdog last week against the Cowboys and won the game outright; might they do anything similar this week?  I do not have a strong feeling about the outcome of this game; I can talk myself into just about any outcome but in all of my ruminations, I like this game to OVER.  Put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 3:00 PM ET) Bucs at Lions – 6.5 (48.5):  This is the only game this weekend where the line has moved significantly.  The spread here opened at 4.5 points and has been hanging around at this level for the last couple of days.  I don’t have any confidence in trying to predict how the Bucs’ offense will play in this game.  Last week they were efficient and effective in beating the Eagles; two weeks ago, in a game they had to win to make the playoffs, the Bucs scored 9 points against the Panthers.  The Lions beat the Bucs in the regular season; if you think that is the key to this game, just remember that the Eagles also beat the Bucs in the regular season and the Eagles are not the ones advancing to this round of the playoffs.  I think this game will be exciting; both teams should be able to produce so-called “chunk plays”.  I think the line is fat; so, give me the Bucs plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 6:30 PM ET) Chiefs at Bills – 2.5 (45):  From a viewing standpoint, this has to be the Game of the Week simply because it will be Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes will be starting in his 16^th playoff game, and this is his first road game in that sequence – – not counting of course neutral sites for Super Bowl games.  He leads the team to the field in their 6^th consecutive shot at the AFC Championship.  These teams met in the regular season and the game came down to Kaderius Toney lining up offsides and negating a TD on a trick play.  Both teams will have their excellent QBs facing excellent defenses on the other side of the ball.  The Chiefs’ undoing this year has been the ability of their WRs to catch passes that hit them in the hands.  Here is an interesting betting stat; make of it what you will:

• The Chiefs have been underdogs only 9 times with Patrick Mahomes at QB.
• The Chiefs are 8-1 against the spread in those 9 games.
• The only loss against the spread was when the Bills won and covered in 2022.

The Bills are banged up; five defenders did not practice this week and three more defenders were “limited” in practice.  The Chiefs have been their own worst enemy in lots of situations this season.  The weather forecast for Buffalo on Sunday calls for temperatures in the low 20s and only a slight chance of precipitation; hopefully Mother Nature will abide by that forecast.  No pick in this game; I just want to sit back and enjoy.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

1. Texans +10 against Ravens
2. Texans/Ravens OVER 43.5
3. Packers/Niners OVER 50
4. Bucs +6.5 against Lions

            No Money Line parlays this week; none of the odds are particularly appealing.

Finally, let me close today with these words from former Alabama coach, Nick Saban:

“If you want to make everyone happy, don’t be a leader.  Sell ice cream.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There has been a lot of reporting on “Long-COVID”.  According to the CDC:

“Long COVID is broadly defined as signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue or develop after acute COVID-19 infection. “

No one should come here for medical information but there may be a part of the sports world that is suffering from the economic consequences of “Long-COVID”.   Take yourself b ack to 2020 when the pandemic was running rampant in the US and many areas of the country were in “lockdown mode”; people were encouraged to stay at home and many public institutions simply closed down.  One such public institution that had to close was the Baseball Hall of Fame; it generated next to no revenue for 2020 and a significantly diminished amount in 2021.  Unfortunately, it seems that in our post-COVID that revenues for the Hall of Fame have not returned to previous levels

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a non-profit entity which means that its tax filings are publicly available.  According to a report at Sportico.com, here are some data from filings with the IRS:

• Prior to COVID, revenues were in the range of $13-14M per year
• In 2021, revenue was $9.4M
• In 2022, revenue was $2.4M

The 2021 revenue figure is inflated by money the Hall of Fame received from government funds aimed at keeping the economy afloat and from what are characterized as “generous donations” from private sources.  Those government funds are no longer applicable, and the private donations have seemingly returned to pre-COVID levels leaving the Hall of Fame in some financial straits.

Moreover, there is an ominous sign out there related to 2023.  When Mariano Rivera was inducted into the Hall of Fame in the summer of 2019 – – before anyone ever heard of COVID – – the attendance for that weekend ceremony was approximately 55,000 visitors.  When Scott Rolen and Fred McGriff were inducted in the summer of 2023, the attendance was about 10,000 folks.  This report at Sportico.com has more data and more information about the Hall of Fame’s financials.  Perhaps the underlying problem is a heretofore unrecognized economic dimension to “Long-COVID”?

Moving on …  The state of college athletics in the “revenue sports” is chaos.  The combination of the transfer portal with the explosion of money available for athletes via Name Image and Likeness rights (NIL) has produced significant changes in the athletic landscape – – and not all of those changes have been for the good.  The creation of NIL Collectives – – entities that allow college athletic boosters to pool their monies to use in the recruitment of players is one of those “not-purely-positive changes”.  However, their existence raises a question in my mind that I do not have an answer for.

Imagine an NIL Collective that seeks to advance the sporting fortunes for good old Whatsamatta U.  The folks who run the collective – in consultation with the head coach of course even though such consultations may not be recorded anywhere – go out and seek to find a top-shelf QB and a half dozen studs to play on the offensive and defensive lines because that seems to be all that the team needs to contend for next year’s CFP.  After a careful national search for such players and after negotiations, that NIL Collective secures the services of exactly what they and the coach believe are the necessary ingredients for gridiron success next season.

So … the athletes are not necessarily students at the college even if they take real courses and get real grades in those courses for work that they do on their own.  They are where they are doing what they do because the NIL Collective has paid them for those services.  And if that is even remotely the case, then why shouldn’t those athletes be considered employees of the NIL Collective such that the Collective must pay appropriate employment related taxes?

One last “business item” today …  There are reports that execs at Disney – – the owner of ESPN – – and the NFL are in negotiations that might give the NFL an equity stake in the Worldwide Leader in Sports.  According to those reports, ESPN would take over some if not all of the NFL’s media properties such as the NFL Network and Red Zone TV.  Such a transfer of media properties to ESPN makes a lot of sense from the perspective that it puts media-savvy folks in charge of those NFL properties potentially giving them more room to grow.

However, the idea that the NFL would have some equity stake in ESPN could prove a bit awkward when it comes time to negotiate the next media rights deals for NFL games.  The other networks may sense that all is not on the up-and-up when one of the competing bids comes from an entity partially owned by the seller of the media rights.  And, when the NFL sits down to negotiate directly with ESPN, it would be negotiating with itself.  Seems awkward to me…

Finally, here is an entry in The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Business, Big: An organization dedicated to grinding dreams into the dirt.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, people in the US celebrated the birthday of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.  and used that day to contemplate a better world for tomorrow.  Today is the birthday of another great American – – Benjamin Franklin.  To honor Benjamin Franklin, if anyone annoys you today, tell that person to:

• Go fly a kite!

I have seen several “Mock Drafts” and various reporting that indicates the possibility of QBs being taken in the overall #1, #2 and #3 slots this April.  If that were to happen, it would be the 25^th anniversary of the only time I can recall that such a sequence of draft picks took place.  And looking back at that previous happenstance might be a cautionary tale for NFL GMs this time around.

Let’s use Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine and set the date for 1999.  Based on the standings for the 1998 regular season, the Eagles should have had the overall #1 pick via tiebreakers; the Eagles were 3-13 in 1998.  However, that was the year that the NFL added “Cleveland Browns 2.0” to the league and part of the deal for that new franchise was that it would get the overall #1 pick in the draft in its first year of existence.  So, the top three draft slots in April 1999 went to:

1. “Cleveland Browns 2.0”
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Cincinnati Bengals

So, what did those teams do with their coveted high picks and how did it all turn out?

• Browns took Tim Couch (Kentucky).  He played in the NFL for 5 seasons and had an unremarkable career.
• Eagles took Donovan McNabb (Syracuse).  He played in the league for 13 seasons and made the Pro Bowl 6 times.  He was the QB for an Eagles’ team that made it to the Super Bowl but lost that game.  His was not a “Hall of Fame career” but the pick turned out to be quite productive.
• Bengals took Akili Smith (Oregon):  He appeared in 22 games over a 4 year career; in those 22 games he threw 5 TDs and 13 INTs.  Basically, that pick was a wasted asset.

I am not saying that the various QBs who may be selected at the top of this year’s NFL Draft will turn out to be analogous to the ones from 25 years ago, but in the euphoria that will accompany the high picks this year, perhaps fans and GMs should take a moment to exhale.

And since I am on the subject of QBs taken in the first round of the Draft, let me jump ahead in time to look at some more recent selections from the 2021 NFL Draft…

Trevor Lawrence was the overall #1 pick in 2021; he has been in the league for 3 years.  In a sense, his first year was “wasted” in that the Jaguars as a team were experiencing the futility of Urban Meyer’s mercifully brief NFL coaching career.  Lawrence made the Pro Bowl and led the Jags to a winning record and even a playoff win in his second year – – and then he may have regressed in 2023.  I say he “may have regressed” because it is not clear to me that he was completely healthy for the last month of the 2023 season but next year will be his fourth year on his “rookie contract” and the Jags will have an option for a fifth year.  I have no doubt that the team will exercise that option, but if his performance is as it was in 2023, I wonder what might be Trevor Lawrence’s contractual situation at the end of the 2025 season.

Mac Jones went in the middle of the first round of the same draft class that produced Trevor Lawrence.  In his rookie year, Jones made the Pro Bowl and led the Pats to a 10-7 record starting all 17 games in the regular season.  In year two, he only started 14 games and the Pats were 6-8 in those games; this year he started 11 games; the Pats were 2-9 in those games, and he was ultimately replaced by Bailey Zappe.  We can debate from not until next year the cause(s) of that regression in performance, but the fact of the regression is axiomatic.  Like Lawrence, Mac Jones will be in his fourth year on his “rookie contract” in 2024.  I am not sure that the Pats will exercise their fifth year option based on Jones’ career arc to date.

Justin Fields was another product of the 2021 NFL Draft as a first-round QB selection.  He has generated lots of content and commentary over his three years in the NFL; some folks say he is a bust; others think he may be the best QB the Bears have had since Sid Luckman in the 1940s.  As is usually the case, both extremes on that spectrum are just that – – extremes.  Fields is not a bust; and at the same time, Fields does not project to be a Hall of Fame QB as was Luckman.  We will learn in the coming months what various “football people” think about Justin Fields.  The Bears own the overall #1 pick in this year’s draft so:

• If the Bears are convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they could use that #1 pick to “add pieces around” Fields and go forward – – or the Bears could trade that pick for multiple assets in the future.
• If the Bears are not convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they can seek to trade Fields to another team.  And at that point, we might learn what assessment other teams have made about Justin Fields by assessing the trade offers that they put in front of the Bears’ braintrust.

The lesson to be learned from the NFL Draft 25 years ago and the one from 3 years ago is simple:

• Scouting college football players and projecting their performance in the NFL is not a science.

Finally, consider these definitions from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Science:  The study and investigation of phenomena based on rigorous study and experiment, conducted solely for the purpose of pissing off those who think God did it all.”

And …

“Scientist:  A person in a lab coat who appears at the beginning of science fiction films to explain how the collision of certain isotopes can result in a half-man-half-lemur.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

On January 11^th ESPN.com reported that the Pats and Bill Belichick had mutually agreed to part company.  On January 14^th, ESPN,com reported that the Pats had hired Jerod Mayo as their new head coach.  Virtually everything I have read or heard about that decision by Pats’ owner, Robert Kraft, has been positive, but there was a “loose end” to this story that seemed out of place:

• How did the Patriots find another minority coaching candidate to interview – – thereby conforming to the “Rooney Rule” in 3 days and why was there no reporting on such an interview?
• Does the fact that Jerod Mayo is a Black coach mean that a team deciding to hire a minority candidate need not interview a second minority candidate?

I am not trying to play “jailhouse lawyer” here; it just seemed odd that so many things fell into place so quickly particularly since former Pats’ assistant coach Brian Flores is suing the NFL and several specific teams in the NFL alleging racial discrimination and retaliation against him.  He is also trying to turn his lawsuit into a class action suit on behalf of all minority coaching candidates in the league.

A subsequent report at Yahoo sports by Michael McCann offered clarification:

“… Mayo’s hiring as Belichick’s successor was reportedly part of his most recent employment contract with the Patriots. The inclusion of that clause, as described by media reports, followed other teams seeking to interview him as a head coach. The NFL was aware of this clause and comfortable with it. The Patriots are therefore in compliance with the [Rooney] rule, a workplace policy designed to diversify coaching and front offices.”

[Aside: Michael McCann is an attorney and the Director of the Sports and Entertainment Law Institute at the University of New Hampshire Law School.  He also writes for Yahoo, Sports Illustrated and Sportico; he is a great source of information and clarification.]

Frankly, I am very happy to learn that the implementation of the “Rooney Rule” in the case favored substance over form.  The “Rule” is only in place as a mechanism to give minority candidates access to the hiring process and indeed it can be easily circumvented by what Brian Flores calls “sham and performative interviews” by team owners who never had any intention of hiring the minority candidate called in for an interview.  By having it a matter of Mayo’s current contract of employment, this hiring was in effect a promotion that was decided upon before there was a head coaching vacancy.  And since Mayo’s hiring completes the intent of the “Rooney Rule” there is no reason for the Pats to look any further.  Outside the world of sports, this process is called “Succession Planning’, and it is done in myriad other places.

Jerod Mayo’s success or failure as the head coach of the Pats obviously depends on lots of things that will become apparent over the next couple of seasons, but I think first and foremost on that list of things is finding a QB for the team.  Mac Jones was less competent this year than he was as a rookie two seasons ago and Bailey Zappe certainly did not “burst onto the scene” in any positive way…

And speaking of NFL owners making coaching decisions, readers here must realize by now that I usually do not pin blame for unsuccessful seasons on head coaches alone.  In many cases, I suspect that a losing coach has been saddled with an inferior roster and that the coach may only be a minor part of the lack of success.  There is an ongoing situation, however, that gives me pause:

• I am confused and conflicted about the competency of Nick Sirianni as the head coach of the Eagles in Philly.

Here is the source of the confusion and conflict:

1. Twelve months ago, Sirianni and his Eagles’ team were solidly on their way to the Super Bowl appearance and an overall 16-4 record.
2. Today, that same team/franchise is in disarray – – to be polite – – and was just eviscerated in a wildcard playoff game by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

It is not that the Eagles lost the game last night; it is how they have played ever since Thanksgiving Weekend when they beat the Bills in OT.  Since then, the Eagles have lost 6 of 7 games and have lost 4 of those games badly.  I cannot pretend to know what is going on within the team; but to an outside observer, the Eagles did not play with anything like the energy or urgency they showed just a year ago.

Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet:

“Something is rotten in the State of Denmark …”

I suggest that something is rotten within the Philadelphia Eagles’ organization.  I don’t know what that “something” is, but I am convinced of the  existence of a “rotting substance” by the foul odor it has produced.

Finally, perhaps my reaction to the Eagles’ current situation is tied up in an observation by Henry David Thoreau:

“There is no odor so bad as that which arises from goodness tainted.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In his tragedy, Macbeth, William Shakespeare wrote:

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in creeps in this petty pace from day to day …”

Forget the pettiness of the pace; after seven “tomorrows”, it is once again time to produce a Football Friday and so – as is the custom in these parts – I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  1-1-0   =>   Final Season Total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  1-3-0   =>   Season  =  21-26-0
• Parlays = 0-1  Loss = $100   =>  Season  =   10-16  Loss  =  $85

[Aside:  My NFL selections have been rancid at best since Thanksgiving.  Back then, my NFL selections in the “Betting Bundle” were 14-11-0.  Since Thanksgiving, my NFL selections have gone 7-15-0.  Yuck!]

Notwithstanding that trend over the last 6 weeks or so, I will be making a selection in each of the six games this weekend – – even if some of the selections are not much more than a coin-flip in my mind.  There have been books written and songs titled:

• Devil Take the Hindmost

Let that be the focus of what shows up today as the “Betting Bundle”.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Michigan won the CFP Championship Game handily; they did not do any sign stealing last Monday night; all they did was to run the ball down Washington’s throat for more than 300 yards on the ground.  I think the bigger story relates to the popularity of the CFP itself.

Go back to the Michigan/Alabama game on New Year’s Eve.  The TV audience for that game was reported to be 27.2 million people.  That audience is only drawn by NFL games or truly unique events.  The CFP Championship game had an audience of 25.2 million folks.  The important thing here is not just the size of the audience but the reason for the size of the audience.

First, American football is the most popular sport in the US and whatever claims to be second is far behind.  If you are a “football hater”, that is perfectly OK; but it cannot cloud your thinking to the point that you think something like tennis or baseball or golf is similarly popular.  It just is not so.

So, it would be easy to conclude that more than 25 million folks tuned into either or both of those games simply because it was football played at a high level of competence.  And maybe that simple explanation is all that is needed … but maybe there is something else at work here.  Consider:

• The CFP as configured today combines two elements – – high level college football PLUS scarcity.  There are only 3 games in the whole of the CFP.
• So, is either of those elements the primary reason for the large audiences or do they just work in harmony with one another?

That is an interesting question because starting next year, there will be 11 CFP games.  The “scarcity element” will have been significantly diluted; it will be interesting to see how large the first and second round games’ audiences are, and it will be interesting to see if in the semi-finals and final round the audiences remain in the mid-20 million range.

My prediction is that the first-round games and the second-round games will not get anywhere near the audience size we saw this year.  The important question for me is how the “Football Final Four” games draw.  If the matchup next year is between two of the “Football Bluebloods”, the audience will be huge; if one or two teams in the semi-finals are “Upstarts”, I think the audience will be significantly smaller.  We shall see…

I wrote yesterday about Nick Saban’s announced retirement.  With 24 hours to ruminate on that announcement, I would offer these comments:

1. I believe Nick Saban surpassed Bear Bryant in terms of “Alabama Football” – – and I never thought I would come to such a conclusion.
2. I believe Nick Saban’s coaching accomplishments can be considered the football-equivalent of John Wooden’s coaching accomplishments in basketball.
3. I believe he would make a fantastic studio analyst for college football if he wanted to stay connected to the game.  His press conferences show him as a natural behind a microphone.
4. I believe the coach who replaces Nick Saban will last less than 4 years at Alabama.

Here is something I fervently hope is not in play:

• Some legendary coaches retired and then died soon after retirement.  Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno, Vince Lombardi and Pat Summitt are examples of top-shelf coaches who did not enjoy a long-term retirement.
• I would prefer not to add Nick Saban to that listing.

Michigan 34  Washington 13:  I mentioned above the dominance of the Michigan running game here.  In addition, let me present some other stats from the game to explain why – even though the score was still close in the second half – I felt as if the outcome was decided by the end of the second quarter:

• Michigan:  47 offensive plays  – –  7.8 yards per play
• Washington:  71 plays  – –  4.2 yards per play

And, here are the results of the Huskies’ possessions in the second half of the game:

• 1 play – – 0 yards – – 0:05 Time of Possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 7 plays – – 47 yards – – 2:57 Time of Possession – – FIELD GOAL
• 5 plays – – 11 yards – – 1:47 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 18 yards – – 2:10 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – 2:08 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 45 yards – – 2:40 Time of possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 8 plays – – 14 yards – – 1:48 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the second half of the game here is the summary of the Washington offensive output:

• 35 plays – – 136 yards – – 13:35 Time of Possession
• 1 Field Goal, 3 Punts, 2 Interceptions and 1 Turnover on Downs.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Let me go back to the topic of TV audience size for a moment here to put some perspective on the NFL’s popularity.  The good folks at Nielsen have been estimating TV audience sizes since I was a kid just a mankind exited the Bronze Age.  I have no idea how they do it, but lots of folks give significant credence to their numbers.  So, Neilsen published the list of the 100 most watched TV programs for the calendar year 2023.  Take a deep breath as you check out these numbers:

• 93 of the Top-100 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.
• 24 of the Top-25 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games [Aside:  That “other program” in the Top-25 was the Michigan/Alabama game mentioned above.]
• 47 of the Top-50 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.  The “other programs” in the Top 50 list were the Michigan/Alabama game, the State of the Union Address and Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

As a punctuation mark here, the importance of things like Neilsen ratings and audience size are captured in these two quotations:

“The biases the media has are much bigger than conservative or liberal.  They’re about getting ratings, about making money, about doing stories that are easy to cover.”  Senator Al Franken (D-MN)

And …

“The democratic system is challenged by the failure in television because our evening news programs have gone for an attempt to entertain as much as to inform in the desperate fight for ratings.”  Walter Cronkite

Last week, the Browns had a playoff slot locked in; so, they wisely chose to give 38-year-old Joe Flacco a week off.  That meant the Browns started Jeff Driskell at QB and he was the 5^th starting QB for the Browns in the 2023 regular season:

1. Deshaun Watson
2. PJ Walker
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
4. Joe Flacco
5. Jeff Driskell

Even with that Keystone Kops situation at QB, the Browns made the playoffs with the best record of any of the wildcard teams in the AFC.  I doubt that anything like that has happened in the past.

Speaking of starting QBs, there will be 12 players filling that role this weekend and 5 of the 12 will have come from the Big-12 conference.  So, does that make the Big-12 the “Cradle of Playoff QBs”?  If you think I have counted incorrectly, here is my list:

1. Jalen Hurts – – Oklahoma
2. Patrick Mahomes – – Texas Tech
3. Baker Mayfield – – Oklahoma
4. Brock Purdy – – Iowa St.
5. Mason Rudolph – – Oklahoma St.

In the last couple of days, we have seen Mike Vrabel, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick lose their jobs.  It is not commonplace to see coaches in playoff games whose jobs might be “in the balance” but if Vrabel, Carroll and Belichick were “eighty-sixed” recently, we may be going through a Bizarro World space warp.  So, just in case we are going though such a space warp let me throw some stuff on the wall to see if any of it sticks:

• Cowboys:  IF the Cowboys get blown out by the Packers – – say by 3 TDs or more – – the notoriously impatient and hair-triggered owner of the Cowboys might do something rash.  5% chance of this happening…
• Chiefs:  There are Internet rumors that Andy Reid may hang it up after this year is done.  5% chance of this happening.
• Steelers:  There are even louder Internet rumors that Mike Tomlin might just be “stepping away” from his days in Pittsburgh.
• Eagles:  The team has collapsed from a 10-1 start finding ways to lose five of their last six games.  Complete harmony is not in existence in the locker room and on the coaching staff.  The team is virtually certain to be looking to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinators – – both of whom were hired by Nick Sirianni just last year.  If the Eagles lose big to the Bucs, there is a good chance that Sirianni will join the Eagles’ coordinators out there looking for jobs.

Since so many of last week’s games were moot, I am not going to go through a comment on each game.  Rather this week, I would prefer to take a brief look at some of the storylines for this week’s first round playoff matchups:

• Browns/Texans:  The irony here is that these two teams meet in the AFC playoffs and Deshaun Watson will not be the QB for either team.
• Dolphins/Chiefs:  Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium where he did lots of damage for the Chiefs; now he seeks to inflict damage on the Chiefs.
• Steelers/Bills:  Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin, and Bills’ coach, Sean McDermott, were teammates in college at William and Mary.
• Packers/Cowboys:  Cowboys’ coach, Mike McCarthy won a Super Bowl as the coach of the Packers.
• Rams/Lions:  Current Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford was traded for current Lions’ QB, Jared Goff.  Both were overall #1 picks in the NFL Draft in their year.
• Eagles/Bucs:  This will be the 6^th playoff meeting between these two teams.  The Eagles were the Bucs’ opponent in the Bucs’ first-ever playoff appearance in 1979.  In college, Eagles’ QB, Jalen Hurts, succeeded Bucs’ QB, Baker Mayfield, as the QB for the Oklahoma Sooners.

In NFL playoff games, experienced QBs have an edge on QBs in their first-ever playoff games.  I read a stat that said since the 2002 playoffs “Experienced QBs” lead “First time QBs” 36-17.  Of the six games this week, that sort of confrontation will happen four times:

1. Texans’ CJ Stroud versus Browns’ Joe Flacco
2. Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa versus Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes
3. Steelers’ Mason Rudolph versus Bills’ Josh Allen
4. Packers’ Jordan Love versus Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.

The Dolphins/Chiefs game will only be available on Peacock – – the streaming platform.  If you do not have Peacock, think carefully about signing up for it to see this game.  If streaming services see large sign-ups when they bid for individual games, that means they can offer top dollar to the NFL for that programming and the NFL is not one to turn down top-dollar.  The potential endgame here is that the NFL could put all of the playoffs on streaming services because those services will bid more for the product.  So, think about the long-term as well as the immediate term.  I do not have Peacock; I have no interest in signing up for Peacock; I will have to miss a live telecast of this game.

Let the games begin …

 

Super Wildcard Weekend Games:

 

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Browns – 2 at Texans (44.5):  These teams played each other on Christmas Eve in Houston and the Browns prevailed then by a score of 36-22.  CJ Stroud did not play in that game for the Texans; Davis Mills was the QB then as Stroud was in concussion protocol.  Amari Cooper had a monster game that day with 11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs.  I suspect that Messr. Cooper has been a focal point for the defensive unit and the defensive coaches during this week of preparation.  Here is a stat that I ran across that surprised me:

• The Browns’ defense is great at home but not on the road.  In road games this season the Browns’ defense ranks dead last in points per game given up (29.6 points per game.
• This game is in Houston…

I don’t know how he did it, but Joe Flacco turned 9 months of isolated workouts and weekends watching NFL games on TV into performing as one of the top QBs in the NFL.  If he has a “secret sauce” that facilitates this – – and it’s a legal substance – – he could market it for a fortune.  I love CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans for the long haul but for tomorrow, I like the Browns – – with the better defense – – and the Browns – – with the QB on a mystical roll – – to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sat 8:15 PM ET) Dolphins at Chiefs – 4.5 (44.5):  These two teams faced each other in early November in Germany.  The Chiefs won that game 21-14 with the winning TD coming on a “Scoop and Score” by the Chiefs defense.  The Dolphins arrive at the kickoff having lost their last two games which knocked them out of the #2 seed and dropped them to the #6 seed.  The Weather forecast for this game calls for temperatures to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with gusting winds.  Perhaps, this is the latter day “Ice Bowl”?  The Chiefs have the better QB who is more experienced in playoff venues; the Chiefs have the better defense in this game.  The biggest unknowns are very simple:

• Can the Chiefs’ WRs get open? And …
• Can they catch the damned ball if Patrick Mahomes delivers it such that they get both hands on the ball?

I will believe the meteorologists here – – dangerous, I know – – and believe that really adverse weather conditions will keep the scoring down below what would be normal on a warn sunny day in October.  I’ll take the game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

[Aside:  I make that selection fully realizing that the adverse weather could also result in a large number of turnovers with very short fields wherein the total score could easily be in the mid-60s.  Whatever …]

(Sun 1:00 PM ET) Steelers at Bills – 10 (35.5):  There have been tremendous line movements in this game.  The spread opened with the Bills as 7.5-point favorites which expanded quickly to this level.  Meanwhile the Total Line opened at 44.5 points and has dropped by 9 points during the week.  At one point this season, the bills were 6-6 and looked like roadkill; they then proceeded to win 5 games in a row to get to the playoffs as the #2 seed in the AFC.  Back in mid-December, the Steelers were similarly on the outside looking in for a playoff berth, but Mason Rudolph has led the team to 3 straight wins and the last playoff slot in the AFC.  If you like trends, consider this:

• Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 7 teams from each conference back in 2020, no 7^th seed has ever beaten a 2^nd seed.

Anyone who has been a reader here for any length of time and has been paying even a modicum of attention knows that I try to avoid any selections in NFL games with double-digit spreads. However, the mission this week is to make a pick in every game so here goes:

• I think the Bills have the better offense and the better QB here; I think both defenses are formidable; neither team will be disadvantaged by winter weather in the Northeast US; give me the Bills to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 4:30 PM ET) Packers at Cowboys – 7.5 (50):  Here is another case where a 7^th seed goes to play a 2^nd seed.  Let me add to the trend cited above:

• There have been 6 games involving 7^th seeds and 2^nd seeds.  The overall record is 6-0 for 2^nd seeds and the cumulative scores for those 6 games is 196-123.
• The average margin of victory for the 2^nd seeds is 12.2 points.

The Cowboys are far more formidable at home than they are on the road; they are undefeated (8-0) at home and only 4-5 on the road.  The Packers needed to win their last 3 games of the season to secure that final 7^th seed in the NFC playoffs, The Packers are playing with “house money”.  They might win the game outright by 2 TDs, or they might be blown out by 4 TDs; if you were to be able to read Packers’ QB Jordan Love’s mind, I doubt he has considered either or both of those possibilities.  This is a hunch only, but I’ll take the Packers with a full TD plus a hook; put that in the ”Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 8:15 PM ET) Rams at Lions – 3 (51.5):  Can Lions’ TE, Sam LaPorta play up to his normal level in this game?  He injured his knee last week against the Vikes.  More importantly, can the Lions’ defensive secondary break out of a terrible slump in this game.  Here are some numbers from the Lions’ last 3 games:

• Lions allowed 411 passing yards to Vikes in Minnesota yet won the game 30-24
• Lions allowed 345 passing yards to Cowboys in Dallas and lost 20-19
• Lions allowed 396 passing yards to Vikes in Detroit yet won the game 30-20.

If the Lions are going to advance, they will have to do better than they have been doing by a lot.  I love the Lions’ offense and I love the Lions’ “grit”, but that Lions’ secondary is ripe for the picking by Matthew Stafford throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  I think the wrong team is favored here; I’ll take the Rams plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon 8:15 PM ET) Eagles – 3 at Bucs (43.5):  The Bucs arrive here with a modest 9-8 record BUT the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games.  That stands as a mirror image to the Eagles’ record in their last 6 games where they have lost 5 of the 6.  The Eagles pass defense has been awful over the losing stretch and the Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for those defensive backs to deal with.  The Eagles’ offense has injuries to deal with:

• QB Jalen Hurts has a finger injury on his throwing hand.  He was ‘limited” in practice this week.
• WR AJ Brown hurt his knee last week and did not practice this week; he is listed as “questionable” and will be a “game-time decision”.
• WR Devonta Smith did not play last week but was a “full participant” in practice this week.

Having said all that, it is the Eagles’ defense that has collapsed over the last 6 games.  They have not stopped the run well; they have not been good on third down and the secondary has been torched.  While the Eagles are the more talented team from the top of the roster to the bottom, my sense is that this team is ready to fly apart at the seams.  Once again, I think the wrong team is favored so I’ll take the Bucs plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Browns – 2 over Texans
• Chiefs/Dolphins UNDER 44.5
• Bills – 10 over Steelers
• Packers + 7.5 against Cowboys
• Rams +3 against Lions
• Bucs +3 against Eagles

            Just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:

• Bucs @ +140
• Bills @ minus-460   $100 wager to win $193.

And …

• Rams @ +145
• Browns @ minus-130   $100 Wager to win $333.

Finally, at the start of the NFL playoffs, it is appropriate to close here with a remark by Tom Landry whose Cowboys teams went to the playoffs 18 times between 1966 and 1985:

“Setting a goal is not the main thing.  It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL coaching carousel took another spin around the NFL world when the lead owner of the Tennessee Titans announced that Mike Vrabel would no longer be the Titans’ head coach.  Granted, the Titans have not been particularly good for the last two years, but Vrabel’s complete record there was 54-45 with three playoff appearances over a 6-year tenure plus one trophy as the NFL Coach of the Year.  To be clear, those are not “Hall of Fame numbers” just as they are not “Get This Bum Outta Here numbers” either.  There had been reports that Vrabel “wanted out” from the Titans because of an internal power struggle there.  This part of the official statement released by Amy Adams Strunk – – controlling owner of the team – – says to me that there was some sort of internal turmoil in effect:

“As the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions.  Last year we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan.  As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from a fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff.”

Sounds to me like “office politics” was in play in Tennessee …

Looking at Vrabel’s résumé, I believe the other teams already out there looking for a new coach need to think about a reset in which they add Mike Vrabel to their interview list.  In addition, Vrabel’s ties to the Patriots from his playing days could be a factor in the decision making for Robert Kraft in New England as he ponders the future potential of the Patriots with or without Bill Belichick in charge.  In fact, I will go even further out on the speculation limb here and say that there are some rabid Ohio St. fans out there who are unhappy to see Michigan’s recent success at the expense of Ohio St. who might want to start a drumbeat to get Mike Vrabel to take over the job in Columbus OH.  [Aside:  In case you have forgotten, Vrabel was a star at Ohio St. and is already in the Ohio St. Athletic Hall of Fame.]

Now, if you REALLY want to get funky with speculation consider this:

• There is a “report” out this morning that Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin might be considering stepping aside as coach of the Steelers and taking a break from the NFL entirely.  I will believe that when I see that … but …
• Mike Vrabel was drafted originally by the Steelers – – not the Patriots – – and spent the first several years of his career in Pittsburgh.

The Titans are in the AFC South Division which is in an interesting situation.  Each team in that division used last year’s NFL Draft to select someone who they believe can be their QB of the Future:

• Colts – – Anthony Richardson
• Panthers – – Bryce Young
• Texans – – CJ Stroud
• Titans – – Will Levis

It is too early to make pronouncements on the value of those selections, but this is a comparison that cannot be ignored after the next year or two.

And speaking of the AFC South Division, the turnaround of the Houston Texans must be acknowledged and praised.  In the three seasons between 2020 and 2022, the Texans’ combined record was a miserable 11-38-1.  This year, with a rookie QB and a first-time head coach in DeMeco Ryans, the Texans’ record was 10-7 making them the Division Champions allowing them to host a playoff game this weekend.  In that three-year span of futility, the Texans had three different head coaches plus an interim head coach for three-quarters of the 2020 season.  I suspect the franchise will have a bit more stability as it transits this off-season than it has had in recent years.

There is another interesting outcome from the 2023 NFL season that has not gotten the proper level of attention.  The four teams in the AFC North Division all finished with records above .500 for the regular season; the Bengals finished last in the division with a 9-8 record.  Such a result – – all teams in a division finishing over .500 in a season – – has not happened in the NFL at any time since the merger with the AFL in the 1970s.  According to a posting by Dan Daly on Twitter – or whatever it is being called these days – such a circumstance did happen in 1935 when the Western Division of the NFL saw the following results at the end of the regular season:

• Packers   8-4-0
• Lions       7-3-2
• Bears      6-4-2
• Cards      6-4-2

One last NFL item today …  In an interview after the regular season, Aaron Rodgers told reporters that what the Jets needed to do in 2024 was to “flush the bullsh*t” from the building.  Just a thoughtlet here:

• Aaron Rodgers has been the source of lots of bullsh*t with the Packers and then with the Jets in 2023.  However, I doubt he is suggesting that the Jets flush him out of the building.

Finally, much of today has dealt with change and evolution and speculation about the future, so let me close with this observation by George Santayana:

“Why shouldn’t things be largely absurd, futile and transitory?  They are so, and we are so, and they and we go very well together.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………