The Most Disappointing NFL Team For 2017

A friend asked me yesterday at lunch which NFL team has had the most disappointing season to date.  He thought it was a slam-dunk that I would pick the NY Giants who made the playoffs last year and who have stunk in spades this year.  I agreed with him that the Giants had to get strong consideration for this label, but I said that I wanted time to think about two other teams that have disappointed themselves and their fans.  Let me present my troika here:

  • NY Giants:  They have gone from 11-5 last year to a 2-10 record to date where the team has been outscored by 98 points; that is the worst point differential in the NFC – even worse than the Niners.  To a degree, however, the Giants were a mirage last year.  The defense played over its head and carried a flawed roster to a winning record.  The Giants cannot run the ball and they cannot protect the QB; the roster is seriously flawed; injuries exposed the flaws dramatically.
  • Denver Broncos:  It was not all that long ago that the Broncos were Super Bowl champions; this year they are 3-9 and they have been outscored by 109 points.  As with the Giants, the Broncos’ top-shelf defense masked fundamental problems on the offense – the most serious of which is the lack of a QB who is merely a caretaker.  It appears that losing Wade Philips as the defensive coordinator was a serious loss for the team.
  • Oakland Raiders:  They made the playoffs last year and lost quickly because they had to play without Derek Carr in the playoffs.  With him healthy, everyone thought they would be in the playoffs again and might be the AFC rep to the Super Bowl in February 2018.  As of this morning the Raiders are 6-6 and have been outscored by 29 points despite that .500 record.  I think I want to identify the Raiders as the team that has disappointed its fans the most in 2017 because I thought they had a better chance to go to the Super Bowl than either the Giants or the Broncos.

Why have the Raiders been so disappointing?  How did they go from 12-4 last year to 6-6 as of this morning?  Let me offer 4 reasons:

  1. For some reason, the Raiders changed offensive coordinators in the off-season.  I have no idea why that happened because the Raiders’ offense last year was the main reason the team made the playoffs.
  2. The Raiders’ offensive line took a big step back in terms of effectiveness from 2016 to 2017.
  3. The Raiders signed Marshawn Lynch who has been mediocre at best at RB – until he broke a long TD run last week in a win over the hapless Giants.  I wish the NSA would release transcripts of phone calls and/or e-mails between the members of the Raiders’ Front Office regarding this signing.  I would not be surprised to learn that it was done as a marketing ploy to the fans in Oakland to get them to forget that the Raiders are leaving town soon.  Lynch is “Mr. Oakland” and this smells like a ticket-selling operation to me.
  4. The Raiders hired John Pagano to be the “Assistant Head Coach-Defense”.  I do not know John Pagano from John Adams, but I do know this.  When an entity adds an extra layer of management, the results are usually negative and often very negative.  Regarding the Raiders’ defense in 2017, the result on the field was “very negative”.  Is that John Pagano’s fault?  I do not know.  What I do know is that the defensive coordinator – Ken Norton, Jr. – was fired in mid-season.

Speaking of “disappointing”, I was doing some historical research related to the ongoing futility of the Cleveland Browns’ franchise – candidly, I am not sure why I was looking stuff up, but I ran across this information and copied it onto my clipboard.  The Browns have been part of the NFL since 1950 – save for that brief hiatus in the late 1990s when Cleveland lost the team temporarily until it decided to build a new stadium for a franchise.  From 1950 to 1970, the Browns had two head coaches – Paul Brown and Blanton Collier.  The two of them combined to produce a team record of 194-87-7.  Brown and Collier are the two winningest coaches in franchise history.

Since 1970, however, things have been less than wonderful.  The Browns have had 17 head coaches in 44 seasons (remember, they did not exist from ’96-’98) and of those 17 head coaches, only 2 left Cleveland with a winning record:

  • Nick Skorich was 30-24-2 from 1971-1975
  • Marty Schottenheimer was 44-27-0 from 1984-1988.

Now comes the datum that surprised me.  Marty Schottenheimer left the Browns 30 years ago; the team has played 27 seasons since then under 12 head coaches.  None has had a winning record; that is no surprise to me.  However, the Browns’ coach with the most wins since 1989 is Bill Belichick.  In fact, of the 19 head coaches for the Browns’ franchise, Belichick ranks 5th in total wins – – and just about everyone considers his time in Cleveland as a “failure”.

Jimmy Traina reported on SI.com that Rafael Palmiero is “considering a comeback” with a major league team next year; Palmiero will be 53 years old. Reporting on that supposed comeback made it to the local sports radio yakkers yesterday and to Pardon the Interruption and to one of the studio shows on MLB Network.  Pardon my cynicism here, but my first thought was to wonder why this was even worth reporting in the first place – let alone worth talking about in a semi-serious context.  Then I realized that this is a baseball story; this is December; there has not been a lot of “off-season action” to date; the Giancarlo Stanton trade stories and the “Whither Shohei Ohtani” stories have been done to death; so – – any port in a storm.

Finally, Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald had this comment regarding Scott Frost returning to the University of Nebraska as the new head football coach:

“Scott Frost has accepted the coaching job at Nebraska. At about 4 p.m. Saturday, a group of Nebraskans stormed Mount Rushmore and began carving Frost’s visage.

“This may explain why my “Bring Bret Bielema to Lincoln” rally was sparsely attended Friday night.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Will “Parity” Kill The NFL?

There has been a change in the NFL over the past couple of decades.  The NFL used to be a “5-tier league”; there were elite teams at the top; there were pathetic teams at the bottom; and there was sufficient variation in the middle to carve out three categories of teams.  True, teams could improve or “deprove” as the season progressed and move from one tier to another, but it was usually possible to discern 5 different levels.  That is just not the case today.

The NFL is now a “3-tier league”.  You can call that “parity” or you can call that “mediocrity” or you can call that “evolution”; putting a label on it really does not matter.  What you have today is a grouping of teams whose records and whose on-field performances are just better than the rest of the league; let me call them the “Category 1 Teams”.  As of this morning I would make this grouping:

  • “Category 1 Teams”:  Pats, Steelers, Eagles, Vikes, Saints, Panthers, Rams, Seahawks.

At the other end of the line, we can pull together the list of bottom-feeders for 2017; let me call them the “Category 3 Teams”.  As of this morning, here is my grouping:

  • “Category 3 Teams”:  Niners, Bucs, Bears, Giants, Broncos, Colts, Texans, Browns.

By default, everyone else falls into “Category 2”; all the teams in “Category 2” are better than the teams in “Category 3” but nowhere near as good as the ones in “Category 1”.  And unlike 20 years ago, it is nigh onto impossible to separate the “Category 2” teams into a more fine-grained structure.  Moreover, if you look at the “Category 2 Teams”, you probably would have a hard time convincing yourself that perception might change in the final weeks of the season such that any of the “Category 2″ teams might wind up in either “Category 1” or “Category 3”.  And to make it worse, half of the league is in that amorphous “Category 2”.

To the extent that NFL football’s popularity has declined in the 2017 season, I suggest that this “parity” among the teams and the unlikeliness of any change in category for any team is part of the problem.  I look at this “parity” situation as “mediocrity”; when I turn on a game between two “Category 2” teams”, the game lacks a compelling tone.  What I see on my TV screen is good-but-not-great football; and in my mind, I know that the outcome of this game is really not all that important.  I continue to watch about the same amount of NFL games as I did in prior years, but I wonder if others are tempted to do “other stuff” because the product on the air is too often mediocre.

My theory is that the cause of this situation is the fiscal success of the NFL.  Writers and commentators love to spin the narrative about the competitive desire of owners to field championship teams and how they will “do anything to bring a championship home to the fans”.  Really?  I suspect that owners of teams that do not win championships – or even win more than half their games – can apply a psychic balm to their injured competitive spirit when they look at the books and see that they netted a profit in the 8-figure range last year plus Forbes says that the value of their franchise just went up in the 8-figure range.  Owners – and by extension their teams – have gotten fat, dumb and happy.  That is analogous to Dean Wormer’s assessment of the frat boys in Animal House and that is not a good way to go through life.

To my mind, the epitome of a team having more profit than brains is the Cleveland Browns and their Front Office dominated by people who have had some success managing baseball teams.  There is a line of thinking in organizations that someone who can manage one thing well can manage anything well.  I have seen so many examples that disprove that line of thinking that I wonder how it maintains currency – – and then I look at the Cleveland Browns’ Front Office and the fact that the owners there set it up that way and …  Now, I ask myself why the Browns’ owners need to change anything because they are not losing money and they have a franchise worth $1.9B (according to Forbes) for which they paid $987M.

Here in the DC area, fans have a team mired in mediocrity.  The franchise is worth something north of $3B; Forbes puts last year’s earnings at $145M before all of the accounting legerdemain of amortization and depreciation and all that stuff.  Juxtapose those numbers with the fact that the owner cannot find a way to provide the team a field to play on that has live grass on it after late November.  Why should he care?  Why should he care if the team wins 8 games this year or only 6?  He will probably make another $145M next year too.

I said above that “to the extent that NFL football’s popularity has declined in 2017 …” and I used that wording specifically because I wonder just how much it has.  The narrative goes that the NFL is in decline; the 800-lb. gorilla in the world of professional sports in America is aging and is fast approaching its expiration date.  That narrative allows commentators to list and complain about all the evils of the NFL.  You know the list; here are a few items that are always good for a column or a hot-take:

  1. Concussions/CTE:  Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to play football…
  2. Domestic violence:  Players do it; the league ham-handles it.
  3. Anthem protests:  The league is squarely in the middle of the country’s culture wars.
  4. Officiating blunders:  Been happening for years; will continue to happen; live with it.
  5. Obscene salary for the Commish:  An employee is worth what his employer pays him/her.

With all those issues as a backdrop to games on TV that are not compelling, you could conclude that an implosion is imminent.  However, there is some contrary evidence that does not support the narrative and seems to have gotten scant attention.  Mediapost.com tracks issues related to the financial aspects of the media; they reported the following:

“The NFL’s October take was stronger in national TV ad dollars versus a year ago.

“Confirming other recent reports, the NFL is picking up steam when it comes to higher national TV advertising revenues. October TV dollars grew 3% over the same month the year before.

“Across all TV networks, national TV advertising grew to $757 million in October 2017 against $738 million in October 2016, according to Standard Media Index. From the start of the season — early September through November 6 — national TV advertising totaled $1.76 billion against $1.44 billion, according to iSpot.tv.

“In October, across all five NFL TV networks, the average unit 30-second commercial rate rose 7% to $482,000 in October 2017.”

Could the prevailing narrative be “overstated”?  Is it even possible that the prevailing narrative is “dead wrong”?  The NFL economy is driven by advertisers on its programming; when advertisers buy time and pay premium prices, networks pay premium TV rights’ fees.  Talk about how that revenue will dry up due to “cord cutting” and “streaming” is interesting if you believe that the NFL will give “streaming services” a free ride as opposed to whatever rights fees they have come to enjoy from networks.  It also assumes that fans will not find ways to watch games even if they cut cords.

For the record, I buy into part of the narrative about NFL economics.  I do not believe that the growth rate in revenues/profits or that the growth rate in terms of franchise value can be sustained at the current level for long.  Using the example of the Browns from above, the current owners bought the team in 2012 and have – approximately – seen the franchise value double in 5 years.  That represents a growth rate of about 14.5% per year; that is not sustainable over the next decade; if that were to be the case, the Browns would be worth $7.6B in 2027.  Personally, I don’t see that happening.

However, I also do not believe that parents will not allow their kids to play football to an extent where the talent pool dries up.  The US population today is about 325 million folks; for the NFL as it is currently constructed, the league needs about 60 players per team totaling a little less than 2000 players.  Even if you can imagine a future where the number of high school football players is halved from today’s level, the NFL will still be able to find 2000 “employees” for their enterprise – particularly if the league’s economics continue to support a salary structure where the minimum salary for rookies is $450K per year.

I also do not believe that the NFL’s blatantly stupid handling of domestic violence incidents – or more generally its handling of anti-social behaviors by its players/coaches/others – will doom the league.  Another popular narrative making the rounds today is that women are now feeling empowered sufficiently to call out powerful and famous people for sexual harassment/assault.  Some commentators have even said that we have reached a tipping point here and if that is the case, then there is no going back.  That is what happens if there is really a tipping point…  If that empowerment is real, then it ought not to be very long until women also no longer tolerate domestic violence incidents or other manifestations of anti-social behavior by men in general and football players in particular.  In other words, if the trend afoot among women today is real and continues on its trajectory, the “domestic violence issue” for the NFL will likely resolve itself with or without any impetus from the league.

I believe that the biggest threat to the NFL and its economic dominance resides in its relationship with its players as seen through the lens of collective bargaining.  Other than social hot button issues on which just about every rational human being agree, the NFL and the NFLPA are at odds with one another.  I find this to be amazing.  One of the foundations of the trade union movement in the US over the past century or so has been that workers wanted to share in the economic bounty that their labors produced.  For a time, the idea of “profit sharing” was an important union goal in negotiating new contracts with management.

In 2017 – and for the last two decades or so – profit sharing is precisely what NFL players have.  Strip away much of the verbiage that makes the Collective Bargaining Agreement into a tome approaching 100 pages; the CBA defines classes of “shared revenue” and after audits of those classes of income for each season, a fixed percentage of that revenue must be paid to players as salary.  That is the source of the “salary cap” and the “salary floor”.  What this means is that the NFL and the NFLPA are business partners not adversaries.  When revenues go up, salaries must also go up.  When revenues decline, salaries must also decline.  The league and the union may squabble over the exact percentage paid to players from one CBA to another; they can argue about how fines and suspensions are adjudicated; however, they must recognize that they are squabbling and arguing with a “partner” and not an “evil opponent”.

Check the statements and the interactions and the legal battles between the NFL and the NFLPA over the past couple of years and ask yourself if that is the way “partners” deal with one another or if those pitched battles represent the behaviors of “opponents” or even “enemies”.  This is the area of concern for the NFL if it is going to continue as a growing enterprise in the entertainment industry.  [Aside:  The NFL economic success is built on the fact that it is a TV series more than a sporting event.  The NFL is the highest rated programming on all 4 of its “broadcast partner” networks.]  The NFLPA needs also to come to this recognition.  What that mutual recognition might accomplish is that both parties will act in such a way as to be sure that their actions do not offend significant portions of the audience.

The NFL has issues; but in too many places, those issues have been inflated beyond reality.  Consider:

  • TV ratings are down – – but ad revenues are up.
  • “Parity”/” Mediocrity” does not help TV ratings; we have lots of “Parity”/” Mediocrity”; that does not seem sufficient to kill the league.
  • There will always be sufficient numbers of players to provide the league with employees.
  • There is no cure to poor officiating.
  • People will get over the “obscene salary” paid to the Commish.

The big issue for the NFL is to find a way to reach a much more constructive relationship and modus operandi with the NFLPA.  That is a two-way street; the NFL cannot fix that alone; the NFLPA has to accept that its partnership with the NFL is not enhanced by obstinate opposition to the NFL on any and all issues that arise.  I think that is the most important challenge for the league that poses the greatest danger.  Given the adversarial history between Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith, is it optimal to have these two folks as the “point persons” to change the nature of the relationship?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

The College Football Silly-Season

With all the attention focused on the College Football Playoff, there has not been enough attention paid to the myriad bowl games scheduled to start in two weeks.  There are a few good games sprinkled into the mix; however, as usual, many of these games have no compelling reason to exist.  Let me start with the good games – other than the ones in the CFP itself of course:

  1. Camping World Bowl – Dec. 28, Orlando, FL:  The two teams involved are both in the Top 25.  VA Tech and Oklahoma St. are both interesting teams to watch.
  2. Alamo Bowl – Dec 28, San Antonio, TX:  These two teams finished the season ranked in the Top 15.  TCU takes on Stanford here; TCU’s defense seems to be able to hold down anyone other than Oklahoma.
  3. Fiesta Bowl – Dec. 30, Glendale, AZ:  Penn St. and Washington should be a good match; there is potential for lots of points on the board here.
  4. Orange Bowl – Dec 30, Miami, FL:  Wisconsin takes on Miami in a home game for Miami.  Expect a defensive struggle here; the Total Line for the game is only 45.5 points.

And now comes the list of the games that are surely not important and in most cases, are not even interesting.  There will be 6 abjectly meaningless bowl games on December 16 to start the college football silly season.  I won’t even bother going through the games on that date other than to say none of them is significantly more interesting than an infomercial for a colon cleansing product.

  1. Boca Raton Bowl – Dec. 19, Boca Raton, FL:  Akron and Florida Atlantic will square off here.  This is one minor bowl game that ought to have decent attendance.  Akron supporters might enjoy a trip south at that time of the year plus this is a home game for Florida Atlantic.  Other than that, …
  2. Gaspirilla Bowl – Dec. 21, St. Petersburg, FL:  Temple and Florida International will play this game for reasons known only to them.  Temple supporters do not travel reliably to see home games about 10 miles from campus; I doubt they will show up in numbers 1500 miles from home.
  3. Birmingham Bowl – Dec. 23, Birmingham, AL:  Here you can see Texas Tech and USF.  Do not watch this game if you like to see any defense played at all.  The Total Line opened at 65 and jumped to 67.5 overnight.
  4. Dollar General Bowl – Dec. 23, Mobile, AL:  Appalachian St and Toledo met in the Camelia Bowl last year; it was so much fun they decided to do it again.  You do remember how much fun it was last year, right?
  5. Heart of Dallas Bowl – Dec. 26, Dallas, TX:  If you can explain to me how Utah and West Virginia have anything to do with the “Heart of Dallas”, I’m listening…
  6. Texas Bowl – Dec. 27, Houston, TX: Texas plays Missouri in this game.  Neither team has been to a bowl game since 2014.  Both schools used to put quality teams on the field regularly; not so much anymore…
  7. Military Bowl – Dec. 28, Annapolis, MD:  Virginia plays Navy at Navy’s home field.  That is the most exciting news I can think of regarding this game.
  8. Arizona Bowl – Dec. 29, Tucson, AZ:  Utah St. Plays New Mexico St. in this game.  This is the first time since 1960 that New Mexico St. has been to a bowl game anywhere.  If that is not enough to get you to tune in, then you will miss the game and be happier for it.

Oh, by the way, there are two games on New Year’s Day that are pretty bland fare.  Normally, that day presents interesting teams in interesting games.  However, this year I can opt to watch Michigan/South Carolina in the Outback Bowl followed by Auburn/ UCF in the Peach Bowl.  Neither pairing piques my interest much at all…

While on the subject of college football – sort of – I have a suggestion for the folks at Tennessee who are still searching for someone who will take the job of head football coach there.  Recent reports say that new Athletic Director, Phillip Fulmer, wants to have someone from the “Tennessee family” to take over the team and lead it back to previous glory.  The problem is that there appears to be some fissures in the “Tennessee family” at the moment; there are various factions that are not getting along with other factions.  So, what Tennessee needs is identified uniquely with Tennessee who is also someone that everyone involved in the football program there can admire.  I have the answer for Phillip Fulmer; no charge for my consulting fee here:

  • Davy Crocket

“Born on a mountain top in Tennessee; greenest state in the land of the free …”

With that bit of fanciful nonsense out of the way, allow me to jump to another sport where reports say there is more fanciful nonsense afoot.  As the Miami Marlins go about the business of restructuring the team and the organization under the new ownership/leadership of Derek Jeter, there are management positions that need filling.  Someone recently took to Twitter – where all of the Twits go to Tweet evidently – to tell Jeter that he would like to be the manager of the Marlins and be part of the effort to “straighten things out there”.  And the identity of the Tweeter who would straighten things out in Miami is – – drum roll please – –

  • José Canseco

Given the reports that Aaron Rodgers is back at practice with the Green Bay Packers with his surgically repaired collar bone on the mend, it is worth recalling that he has a metal plate and 13 screws in his body and on the bone to assist in the rapid healing process.  It is a good thing that the Packers travel as a team on charter aircraft.  With that much metal in his body, Rodgers would probably trigger the TSA metal detectors about three steps off the cab at curbside check-in for baggage if they flew commercial.

Finally, regular readers here know that I like to have fun with the names of athletes in various sports.  Here are two that came to my attention in the past couple of weeks:

  1. The Washington Post agate type for “Transactions” listed an addition to the Denver Broncos’ practice squad.  They signed NT, Chunky Clements.  What a great name for a nose tackle.
  2. A reader sent me a note – and I have confirmed – that Cal has a redshirt-freshman offensive lineman named Gentle Williams.  Presumably, offensive line coach, Steve Greatwood, wants him to be something other than gentle.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The World Of College Football

I have a problem with the four teams selected for the CFP this year – – and it has nothing to do with the widespread debate over Alabama being put in the tournament while Ohio State is left out of the tournament.  I have heard all the arguments offered on the four-bazillion college football analysis programs on ESPN and ESPN2 and ESPN34 and the SEC Network and the Big 10 Network and – you get the idea.  I understand; the two teams are very close in terms of “deserving” a slot in the CFP and I also get the point that all the bloviating on a TV set or behind a radio microphone will change exactly nothing.  Alabama is in; Ohio State is not in; deal with it.

My problem is Auburn.  If you want to play the “review of the résumé game”, consider this:

  1. Alabama is in; Auburn is out; Auburn beat Alabama on the field a week ago.
  2. Georgia is in; Auburn is out; Auburn and Georgia played twice and split the two games.  Auburn toasted Georgia and won by 23 points 3 weeks ago; Georgia dominated Auburn and won by 21 points 3 days ago.  One is in and one is out…

It sure appears to me as if Auburn and Georgia are equal.  Yes, I know that Auburn now has 3 losses on its dance card and Georgia has only 1.  Nonetheless, these two teams have played one another twice in the last 3 weeks and at the end of 8 quarters of football, the point differential is 2 points.

There is another aspect of this situation that is illuminating.  Many folks have jumped to the conclusion that the way to resolve this problem is to expand the CFP to 8 teams.  Yes, that would get rid of the agita over who is ranked #4 and in the tournament vis á vis who is ranked #5 and is not in the tournament.  There are two problems with this suggested expansion:

  1. It merely transfers the angst over who is in and who is out from the “four-five debate” to the “eight-nine debate”.  You know this will be the result here simply because in the basketball tournament where there are 68 invitees, there is an annual wringing of hands over who should have been invited and who should not have been invited.
  2. It will render at least some – if not most – of the existing conference championship games moot.  Note please that Ohio State is ranked #5 and Wisconsin is ranked #6 in the final rankings.  That means both of them would be in an 8-team tournament field; that fact would have taken much if not all the “edge” off of last weekend’s game between the two teams.

Back in January 2017, I posted here my plan to “reinvent college football”.  I started out that rant by saying that my plan would never happen; nonetheless, it is as good an idea as what exists now.  Here is the link to that proposal if you want to refresh your memory.

I believe it was Scott Van Pelt on the “Midnite SportsCenter” show who said that there was some justification for Alabama’s inclusion in the CFP based on the Las Vegas odds posted for the ultimate playoff winner.  Alabama may be the #4 seed, but Las Vegas has them at the shortest odds to win it all at 2-1.  This is a bogus argument.

Bookmakers do not set odds based on their predictions of who will win and who will not.  Bookmakers set odds based on their predictions on how the public will bet on the games involved; the bookmakers want their book to be “balanced”.  What they want – and usually do not get – is for the money bet by the public to be distributed in such a way that the book will make a profit no matter the outcome.  That is why “the vig” exists; that is why the odds on all four teams in the CFP are set such that the payoff is lower than it would be in a pari-mutuel situation.  The Las Vegas oddsmakers are not predicting an Alabama victory here; they are predicting that more money will be wagered on Alabama than on the other three teams.

Switching to another aspect of college football news at this time of year, the college football coaching carousel is still going round and round.  Let me make a few comments about some of the movement:

  • Kevin Sumlin was fired at Texas A&M after 6 years and a record of 51-26.  He will be replaced by Jimbo Fisher from Florida State.  You may think that Sumlin got some sort of a raw deal after winning two-thirds of his games with the Aggies but do not shed crocodile tears for him.  Reports say that he will get $10.4M in buyout money and that the lump-sum has to be in his bank account within 60 days of his termination.  Moreover, there is no offset clause in the deal meaning that if Sumlin gets another job, he still gets to keep the entire $10.4M.  Kudos to Sumlin’s agent here…
  • Dan Mullen took the job at Florida leaving Mississippi State looking for a replacement.  This looks to me to be only a small step up the college football food chain, but Mullen may have two motivating factors at work here.  First, he used to be an assistant at Florida from 2005 through 2008.  Second, by moving from the SEC West to the SEC East, he will be in a situation where he does not have to play Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M every year.
  • Scott Frost led UCF to an unbeaten record in the AAC this year and then left to take the job at Nebraska where he played his college football back in the 90s.  That is a big step up on the college football coaching ladder; Frost will replace Mike Riley at Nebraska after Riley led the Cornhuskers to a 19-19 record over a three-year span.  Brad Dickson of the Omaha World Herald has this to say about Riley’s departure:

“Nebraska fired Mike Riley Saturday morning. My gosh, you’d think somebody at The World-Herald could have predicted this.

“Actually, the following correctly predicted Riley’s termination: World-Herald writers; local sportscasters; national media; Punxsutawney Phil; a psychic octopus; Miss Cleo …”

Let me make one final observation about college coaching before wrapping up today.  I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer here; but in order to maintain my Curmudgeon Credentials, I feel the need to point something out.  Jim Harbaugh has been the coach at Michigan for 3 seasons now; Michigan has plenty of history with several Big 10 schools but when you boil it al down, Michigan has 2 rivalries that are bigger than all the others.  Those rivalries are Michigan State and Ohio State.  In Jim Harbaugh’s 3 seasons in Ann Arbor, Michigan’s record against those 2 big rivals is 1-5.  USA Today says that Harbaugh is the highest paid college football coach at $9M per year.  Hmmm…

Finally, Norman Chad writes a syndicated column where he adopts the persona of The Couch Slouch.  This week, he presents “The sports fan’s gift guide for people you don’t care about”.  There are more than a couple of chuckles in the column and I commend it to your reading.  Here is the link:

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Fine Football Weekend Indeed

I should not have to try to convince you that this is the best college football weekend of the season.  Don’t quibble over a few meaningless games on the card [UMass/Florida International or Idaho/Georgia St. or South Alabama/New Mexico St.] and pretend not to notice that Florida State rescheduled a game they previously canceled against La-Monroe simply to get a 6th win for the season and become bowl-eligible.  Focus on the important conference championship games as I will do here:

  1. Stanford vs. USC – 4 (58):  The game is tonight in Santa Clara.  When these teams met earlier this season, Stanford RB, Bryce Love ran wild on the USC defense (17 carries for 160 yards).  Even that was not enough; USC won 42-24.  Stanford has improved as the season has gone on, but Love has been playing on a bad ankle for a month.  I think USC is still the better team; I think they will win and cover.
  2. Memphis vs. UCF – 7.5 (81.5):  This game is in Orlando, FL making it a home game for UCF.  The winner is the AAC Champion which normally engenders a reaction like, “Meh”; however, this year the winner will most likely get an invitation to play in one of the big New Year’s Day bowl games so this year the game is sorta interesting.  These teams met earlier this year and UCF won easily.  Both teams win by outscoring opponents and not by defense – hence the Total Line of 81.5.  I have no strong opinion on this game and have no rooting interest either.  So, just to be contrarian, I guess I’d take the game to stay UNDER.
  3. Georgia vs. Auburn – 2.5 (48):  The game is in Atlanta.  Three weeks ago, Auburn pushed Georgia around all day long; the final score was 40-17 and that was indicative of how the game unfolded.  That game was in Auburn and the crowd was amped for the game; the Auburn team fed on that.  Auburn shut down the Georgia run offense and forced Georgia to throw the ball 28 times; that is not how Georgia wins games; Georgia wins by pounding its running attack down the throats of opponents.  Meanwhile, the Auburn run game will not be at 100% with workhorse RB, Kerryon Johnson “questionable”.  I think this is going to be the best of the conference championship games and I like Georgia with the points.
  4. Miami vs. Clemson – 9.5 (47):  The game is in Charlotte.  Miami has escaped so many games that looked lost that they should adopt Harry Houdini as an honorary captain for this game.  The string ran out last week against Pitt and even though Clemson lost to Syracuse earlier this year, Clemson looks much the better team to me.  I think this will be a defensive game where Clemson’s defense will shut down Miami and where Clemson’s offense will just grind it out.  I like this game to stay UNDER.
  5. Ohio St. – 6 vs. Wisconsin (51):  The game is in Indianapolis.  Both teams have relied on excellent defenses to win games; I do not expect that to change this weekend.  If Wisconsin wins, they will be in the CFP; if Ohio St. wins, they do have 2 blow-out losses on their record and might not be in the CFP.  If you are a conspiracy theorist, you might think that the Big 10 conference would prefer Wisconsin to win here to assure a conference rep in the CFP.  Trust me; if Wisconsin does win on a controversial call by the refs, you will hear those cries from multitudes.  I like Ohio St. to win and cover here.
  6. TCU vs. Oklahoma – 7 (63.5):  The game is in Arlington, TX.  When these teams met earlier this year, Oklahoma led 38-14 at the half and then put it on cruise control to win the game 38-20.  If you are a TCU fan, you read that game differently; you say that TCU figured out the Oklahoma offense and shut it down in the second half.  TCU can play defense; the question here is whether they can play defense well enough to keep Oklahoma’s offense from running wild.  Purely a hunch, but I’ll take TCU plus the points.

I mentioned above the Florida St./La-Monroe game set up to allow Florida St. to attain bowl-eligible status.  Other than saying that Florida St. ought to be ashamed here, the line on the game is interesting.  Florida St. is a 27-point favorite and the Total Line is 64.5.  La-Monroe does not lose because their offense is incompetent; they have scored 50 or more points 4 times this year and lost 1 of those games.  I do not expect them to do anything of the sort here, but it is not unreasonable to think they can score 3 TDs against the Seminoles and still not cover.  And that would mean the game would go OVER – – if you catch my drift here…

Notwithstanding the menu of top-shelf college games this weekend, the “student-athletes” still must share the stage with the pros this weekend.  The NFL schedule maker has several interesting games and some important ones too.  The Thursday Night Football game last night between the Cowboys and the Skins was an important one.  The only way into the playoffs for both teams is via the wild card; yes, I know that if the Cowboys win out and the Eagles lose out the Cowboys will win the NFC East on tie-breakers; I also know that is not going to happen.  So, with both teams standing at 5-6 for the season, this game meant a lot…

However, no one seemed to tell the Skins that it meant a lot because they came out flat; turned the ball over 4 times and when they needed a 3-and-out from the defense in the 4th quarter to make a game of it, the Skins’ defense gave up a 75-yard TD drive that took about 6 minutes off the clock.  There is much weeping and gnashing of teeth on sports radio in the DC area today but if the history of the Skins’ franchise is any guide, it is about to go from the “hopeful season” to the “ugly season”.

The franchise loves to cannibalize its members.  Look for the innuendos to begin this week with anonymous sources leaking stories from “inside the locker room” and “in the Front Office’.  Weeping and gnashing of teeth always yields around here to finger-pointing and blame-assessing which leads to internal politics and turmoil.  Let the games begin…

  • Lions at Ravens:  The Ravens are 3-point favorites at home.  That situation has to be a vote of confidence for the Ravens’ defense because the Ravens’ offense has been AWOL for almost the entire season.  Both teams are 6-5 and have their eyes on wild cards as entries to the playoffs.  Unusually, the Lions are better on the road this year than at home; they are 4-1 on the road.
  • Niners at Bears:  The Bears are 3-point favorites in this dreadful game.  This is the first half of a double-whammy for NFL fans in the Bay Area; after getting this game in the early time slot, they will then get the Raiders/Giants in the late time slot – – unless someone gets a Federal injunction to prevent that from happening on the basis that it would be cruel and unusual punishment for Bay Area fans.  The Bears are 3-8 and have not yet been eliminated from the wild card hunt in the NFC.  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.
  • Vikes at Falcons:  The Falcons are 3-point favorites at home.  This game means a lot to both teams; the Vikes lead the NFC North by 3 games with 5 to play; they cannot clinch the division this week, but a win here is important to them.  The Falcons trail the Saints by a game in the NFC South; nevertheless, they would be part of the playoffs as a wild card if the playoffs started now; they need a win here.  This is the second straight road game for the Vikes and this is a time when the Falcons seem to have found their stride after suffering “Super Bowl Hangover” earlier this year.  Purely a venue call; I like the Falcons to win and cover.
  • Pats at Bills:  The Pats are 8.5-point favorites on the road.  For the moment, the Pats would be the #2 seed in the AFC Playoffs, but they have an upcoming game against the Steelers – the current #1 seed.  Therefore, a win here is a big deal for the Pats and that is bad news for the Bills.
  • Broncos at Dolphins:  The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites on the road.  This is another dreary game even though both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff chase.  The Broncos have lost their last 5 games and they have failed to cover in any of those 5 losses.
  • Texans at Titans:  The Titans are 7-point favorites at home.  The Titans are tied for the lead in the AFC South with the Jags; the Texans are 3 games behind those two teams and given their injury situation it looks as if they brought a knife to a gun fight.  The problem is that the Titans’ offense has been woeful this year; Marcus Mariotta appears to have regressed and not progressed.  The Titans only average 185 yards per game passing; their smashmouth running offense produces 90 yards per game; the Titans are offensively challenged.  However, their challenge is nothing compared to the Texans who must rely on Tom Savage and/or TJ Yates to pilot their offense.
  • Colts at Jags:  The Jags are 9.5-point favorites at home.  Given the Colts’ anemic offense and the Jags’ strong defense, the only way the Colts keep this close is if Blake Bortles reverts to his “Turnover Machine Incarnation”.  Seriously, I would not be shocked to see that the Colts score 10 points or less in this game.  The Jags are tied with the Titans for now; they need this game.
  • Bucs at Packers:  The Packers are 2-point favorites at home.  The line opened the week with the Bucs as 1.5-point favorites but that has flipped significantly as the week went on.  Jameis Winston is expected to be back for the Bucs in this game; Aaron Rodgers will be eligible to practice with the team starting tomorrow but will not be eligible to play in this game; Brett Hundley played well against the Steelers last week and he faces a far less fearsome defense here.  The Bucs allow 395 yards per game to their opponents.  The Total Line for this game is 45 points; in 14 of their last 18 games, the Packers have gone OVER.  Just saying…
  • Chiefs at Jets:  The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites on the road – – even though the Chiefs have lost 5 of their last 6 games outright.  Maybe that is because the Jets have also lost 5 of their last 6 games outright?  The Jets were in the game against the panthers last week until a “scoop-and-score” sealed their doom.  The Chiefs have been horrible recently – particularly on defense.  If I were in Las Vegas, I would be taking the points in this game…
  • Panthers at Saints:  The Saints are 4.5-point favorites at home.  These teams have the same record (8-3) and lead the AFC South.  Clearly, this is a big game for both teams; it is probably the best game of the weekend.  The Panthers are 5-1 on the road this year and normally that record would weigh heavily in choosing a side here.  However, the Panthers are facing a Saints’ squad who rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards at home and in offensive yards per play at home.  In addition, the Saints rank 2nd in the NFL in points scored at home.  I sure hope this is the late game carried here in the DC area this Sunday because it ought to be a good one.
  • Browns at Chargers:  The Chargers are 14-point favorites here.  Last year, the Browns won one game; that game was against the Chargers in December.  This year the Browns are winless; this game is in December.  Does lightening strike again?  The Chargers can make a playoff run – assuming they do not stub their toes in a game like this.  In fact, if the Chiefs lose to the Jets this week and the Chargers win here, the Chiefs and Chargers will have the same record.
  • Rams at Cards:  The Rams are 7-point favorites on the road.  The Cards beat the Jags last week with a strong showing from the defense and efficient QB play from Blaine Gabbert.  Maybe the defense will have another good game this week; history says that Blaine Gabbert is unlikely to sustain high efficiency.  I like the Rams here…
  • Giants at Raiders:  The Raiders are 8.5-point favorites at home.  The Giants will not play Eli Manning; the Raiders will not have Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper missed practice earlier this week.  This game will be a hot mess so let me call it the Co-Dog-Breath Game of the Week.
  • Eagles at Seahawks (Sunday Nite):  The Eagles are 5.5-point favorites on the road.  Will Kam Chancellor be able to play efficiently this week?  Can Carson Wentz function in the environment of the 12th man the first time he experiences it?  The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win here; the Seahawks sit a game behind the Rams in the AFC West and would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today; this is a huge game for Seattle.  The Eagles run the ball for 147 yards per game; that is 2nd in the NFL.  The Seahawks defense gives up 98 yards per game on the ground; that is 9th in the NFL.  I think that is the axis on which this game will be decided.  There are some interesting trends at work here.  The Seahawks have lost their last 2 home games outright; the last time they lost 3 home games in a row was in 2008.  The Eagles have covered the spread in 8 consecutive games.  This game is must-see TV and coincidentally, the game is on NBC.
  • Steelers at Bengals (Monday Nite):  The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites on the road here.  As noted above, the Steelers are currently the #1 seed in the AFC with a game on the schedule against the #2 seeded Pats in a couple of weeks.  The Bengals still have a pathway to the playoffs, but a loss here will make that a rocky road at best.  The Steelers always play well against the Bengals, but the Steelers also always play less well on the road than they do at home.  In terms of historical trends, this is a prime-time game and Andy Dalton’s record and performance in prime-time games is marginally better than horrid.  The most likely scenario for this game is that the Steelers win on the basis of a 4th quarter meltdown on the part of one of the Bengals players; Dalton and Vontaze Burfict would be the prime suspects…

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation regarding the NFL games over Thanksgiving weekend in the Seattle Times:

“Per presidential custom, Donald Trump pardoned two turkeys last week.

“He should’ve pardoned the Giants-Washington game.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The College Football Coaching Carousel

Chip Kelly is returning to college football as the coach at UCLA.  Most commentators have had nothing but laudatory things to say about this hiring decision, but a couple folks want to take a “wait and see” position here.  Their “concern” is that lots of other coaches have copied Kelly’s hurry-up style of offense which means that defensive coordinators have seen it more frequently.  One might conclude from that logical train that the times have caught up with chip Kelly and his offense; it is no longer unusual or mysterious.

That may indeed be the case, but here is why I do not think it will be the case:

  • I agree that the Chip Kelly Offense has been “solved” at the NFL level.  I think that the reason it has been “solved” there is that NFL defensive coordinators have 11 defenders who are elite athletes who have played football for an extended period of time and who can adapt their play from game to game in significant ways.
  • In college, however, defensive coordinators – other than the one at Alabama – are fortunate to have 1 defender out there who is an elite athlete at the level of those NFL defenders.  The college guys are less experienced too and most teams have a far more restricted menu of defensive maneuvers to present to offenses.
  • I suspect that the Chip Kelly Offense will continue to work in the PAC-12 so long as Kelly can recruit the kind of players he needs to make the system work.

For the skeptics out there, Kelly signed a 5-year deal worth $23M.  More than likely he will have sufficient time at UCLA either to convince the skeptics that they were wrong or to give them reason to say, “I told you so…”

The other “juicy” story about the college football coaching carousel is the one at Tennessee.  I wrote previously about the fiasco of hiring Greg Schiano and then pulling the offer off the table because fans and boosters tied him to the Penn State scandal from several years ago.  [Note:  The chain that ties Schiano to that scandal has so many weak links in it that you have difficulty deciding which one will break first.  Nonetheless…]  If you think that sort of embarrassment would prompt folks there to get the process under control, you would be sorely mistaken.

Let’s review the bidding for a moment:

  • Fans and boosters bought into the rumors that Jon Gruden would leave ESPN and take the job at Tennessee.  Much as I wish that were true just to get him off the airwaves, it is not happening.
  • Greg Schiano became the replacement for Jon Gruden and that did not sit well with the fans/boosters who pitched a fit.
  • Since that embarrassment, other folks who are not Jon Gruden have been associated with the job and have turned it down.  David Cutcliffe will stay at Duke; Mike Gundy will stay at Oklahoma State; Jeff Brohm will stay at Purdue; Jim Bob Cooter turned down even an interview and will say as the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions.
  • There was another rumor floated that Cowboys’ TE, Jason Witten, would retire and come back to his alma mater to coach.  Witten has said otherwise.
  • Currently, Tennessee is courting NC State coach Dave Doeren and – according to rumor – NC State is preparing a counter-offer.
  • I have reached out to Alfred E. Neumann to see if he had been contacted about this job, but I have not heard back from him yet…

There is an English idiom about people with champagne taste and a beer budget; some people like things that they simply cannot afford.  The Tennessee football fans/boosters have a variant on that idiom.  The folks at Tennessee have deep pockets; they can afford to lavish top-shelf salaries and perks on their head coaches and his staff; money is not their problem.  Here is the variant of the idiom that seems to afflict the Tennessee folks:

  • They want a “Top Ten Coach” but the job is not a “Top Ten Job”.

As is the case in much of the Southeastern United States, the Tennessee football coach lives his life under a microscope in Knoxville, TN.  The intensity there is equivalent to the situations at schools like Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan … you get the idea.  The big difference here is that those schools are perennial “contenders” while Tennessee has been a middling program for the last 20 years or so.  The last time Tennessee finished a football season with less than 4 losses was in 2004.  Since 2004, Tennessee has been a regular participant in the Outback Bowl and the Music City Bowl in those years when they were actually bowl-eligible.

The Tennessee program is at an ebb tide level today.  In 2017 they were the only SEC team to go winless in conference games; Tennessee lost to Kentucky and Vandy on its way to an 0-8 SEC record.  Put yourself in the shoes of a “Top Ten Coach” or “The Big Fish Out There In The Hiring Pool”.  Do you want the Tennessee job with all that intense scrutiny plus the fact that you are in the same conference as Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia and Florida?

Ten years ago, Philip Fulmer was the coach at Tennessee.  In 1998, Fulmer led the Vols to the National Championship; the only other time Tennessee was the national champ was in 1951.  Fulmer was at Tennessee for 16 years but in 2008 he had the audacity to post a losing season and the fans/boosters ran him out of town.  Since then, here are the coaches that Tennessee has lured to Knoxville:

  1. Lane Kiffin:  He stayed 1 year and bolted to take the job at USC.
  2. Derek Dooley:  He lasted 3 years and lost 7 games every season.
  3. Butch Jones:  He lasted 5 years, posted an overall winning record and was fired with 2 games left in the 2017 season.

If you are a hot coaching property, do you REALLY want that job?

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry’s Sideline Chatter in the Seattle Times:

“Hastings, Neb., is gearing up to host its second Bigfoot Conference starting Feb. 15.

“Cornhusker football recruiters, leaving nothing to chance, plan to be in attendance.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Benching Eli Manning

The NFL has provided sports fans with more than a few examples of boneheaded leadership.  Just to give a couple of examples:

  • Leonard Tose had to sell the Philadelphia Eagles to pay off his gambling chits to casinos in Atlantic City.
  • Al Davis hung on as the capo di tutti capi with the Raiders for a decade after he lost more than a little bit off his fastball.
  • The “Matt Millen Era” in Detroit.
  • Everyone in a position of authority with the “Cleveland Browns 2.0”.
  • Daniel M. Snyder – – need I say more?

That is hardly a complete list; I am sure that a historian could provide lots more examples of boneheadedness in the NFL for those who crave that sort of thing; I merely want to establish the existence of the phenomenon because it is time to add to the list.

The New York Football Giants [ / Howard Cosell] have apparently mistaken a rabbit hole for a NYC subway entrance.  They issued a press release yesterday announcing that in the midst of a disastrous – and highly disappointing – season, they are going to bench Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith.  Let that sink in for just a moment…

The Giants’ record stands at 2-9; the Giants have been outscored by 95 points this season; they have not scored more than 24 points in any game this year; they have been held to 10 points or less 4 times this year.  Last year, the Giants were 11-5 and made the playoffs.  In no way would I suggest that there is anything in this season’s performance that merits praise.  The 2017 version of the NY Giants stinks!

There were reports a few weeks ago that “people in ownership” had made it known to “the football people” that “the football people” should pay attention to the anticipated mother lode of college QBs slated to be in the NFL Draft in 2018.  There is nothing wrong with that; Eli Manning is about to turn 37 years old; it makes sense to plan for the future.  Indeed, if the Giants had a young QB on the roster who had been a highly touted pick, it might make sense to bench Eli Manning now to see what “the kid” can do.  But that is not the case…

There are two QBs on the depth chart who were behind Manning until yesterday.  They are Geno Smith and Davis Webb.  Let me begin with Davis Webb here:

  • He played 4 years of college football.  Three of them were at Texas Tech and the fourth was at Cal.  He had impressive numbers at both schools and it should be noted that both of those schools play “pass-happy football” making impressive numbers easier than normal to come by.  Overall, he played in 35 college games where he threw 83 TDs and 34 INTs.
  • He is about to turn 23 years old.  He was taken in the 3rd round of the 2017 NFL Draft about 6 months ago.

If the Giants had announced that they were benching Eli Manning and replacing him with Davis Webb, I would be surprised – maybe even shocked – but I would understand that there might be a strategic purpose to that move.  If Webb had been announced as the starter for this week’s game, I could interpret that to mean that Webb’s practices had been sufficiently enticing to make the “big thinkers” in the organization want to see if they already had their QB-of-the-future on the roster.  After all, no one on the planet has any empirical evidence related to Davis Webb as an NFL player; he has never seen the field on a Sunday in his career; he may be the next Aaron Rodgers sitting on the sidelines behind a franchise QB on the field – – or he may be the next Kevin Kolb sitting on the sidelines behind a franchise QB on the field.  I don’t know and the Giants’ “big thinkers” don’t know either.

What the Giants’ move tells me, however, is that the Giants’ coaching staff does not think that Davis Webb is better than Geno Smith at this point.  And that – ladies and gentlemen – is where I must get off the bus.  In the statements surrounding this decision, here is what head coach, Ben McAdoo had to say:

“I have a lot of confidence in Eli as a player, as a quarterback, but at this point it is my responsibility for the organization to make sure we take a look at Geno and at some point take a look at Davis [Webb] and give them the opportunity to show what they can do heading into next year.”

Let me deconstruct that sentence for you:

  1. You damned well better have confidence in Eli as a player and as a QB, coach.  He has won the Super Bowl twice – over the Pats both times I might add – and was the MVP in both of those Super Bowl games.  He has been to the Pro Bowl 4 times and in the 12 consecutive seasons where he has started every game for the Giants, they have had only 3 losing seasons.  Eli Manning is not the greatest QB of all time – and maybe not even the best Giants’ QB of all time – but he is an excellent player and QB.
  2. Your “responsibility to the organization” is to win football games until such time as your bosses tell you not to worry about that so much because they will not mind having a good draft pick next year.  Is that what just happened?
  3. You say you need to “take a look at Geno”.  Excuse me, but you and I and a jillion NFL fans have already looked at Geno and just about everyone else is pretty sure that Geno Smith is a career backup QB.  Period – – and exclamation point.  What Geno Smith can do next year is what he did last year; he can go looking for a job in the NFL with a team that has a solid starting QB where he is the guy on the sidelines that everyone hopes is never needed on the field in a real game.
  4. You say at some point you also need to take a look at Davis Webb.  I agree that would be a reasonable thing to do – – if and only if your assessment now is that Davis Webb is better than Geno Smith in terms of winning NFL games – – unless that is not the objective anymore.

I want to create the following scenario.  Imagine that the Giants’ record is 2-9 (as it is this morning) but in the first game of the season, Eli Manning suffered a season-ending injury; the Giants have gone with Geno Smith at QB since Manning left that game on a stretcher.  What would be the likely narrative in the football punditry today?

  • It has been a horribly disappointing season for the Giants, but what can you expect?  They lost their star QB in Game 1 and had to go with Geno Smith for the entire season.  Davis Webb is still too green to throw out there because he played in a spread offense in college and is still learning the pro game.  The Giants will be all right next year once Manning is healthy and back under center.

That sounds about right to me…

So, forget the fact that the two best WRs on the team have been lost to injury for almost all the season and that the third best WR has missed games due to injury.  Forget that the targets for Eli Manning’s passes are the likes of Tavarres King, Roger Lewis and Travis Rudolph.  Forget that the Giants’ OL looks like dancing bears on ice skates in pass blocking situations.  Forget that players on the defensive unit have played such that people label them “quitters”.  None of that matters – – and here is why none of that matters.

  • The fundamental problem with the 2017 NY Football Giants is not the QB and it is not the injuries to the WRs.  The fundamental problem is that the roster is poorly constructed.
  • There was no depth at WR in the event of injury.
  • The OL was sub-standard last year and nothing was done to improve it for this year.
  • The RB situation is mediocre at best – – even if any Giants’ RB had a functional OL in front of him to block and open holes.
  • The Giants’ star rookie TE, catches only 52% of the balls thrown his way.

All denunciation for the problems listed above must be directed at the Giants’ Front Office.  None of that is a “QB problem”.

On the other side of the ball, some of the defensive players have earned the label of “quitter”.  That is not a term thrown around lightly in NFL circles or in NFL reporting; but it has appeared this year relative to the Giants.  The blame for that – ladies and gentlemen – belongs on the coaching staff for deficiencies in motivational skills and on the individual players who have allegedly done the “quitting”.  None of that is a “QB problem.”

The “big thinkers” for the NY Giants have crossed the Rubicon here.  This decision can only mean that Eli Manning will not be the Giants’ QB in 2018.  It has been reported that Manning has a no-trade clause in his contract; it has also been reported that the Giants will owe him a $5M roster bonus in mid-March 2018.  I have to think that the Giants will arrange not to pay that money and the way for that to happen is for Eli Manning to be off their roster by mid-March.  That puts the coaching staff – whether or not it includes Ben McAdoo and company – and the front office – whether or not that includes Jerry Reese and company – and the Giants’ ownership mavens – the Maras and the Tischs – squarely in the spotlight.

It is easy to see what happens to NFL teams without a franchise QB.

  • The Browns have not had one since returning to the NFL and they are a laughingstock.
  • The Jets have not had one since Joe Namath.  Nonetheless even in their state of desperation, they gave up on Geno Smith.
  • Check out the 2017 version of the Miami Dolphins.
  • The Broncos have an excellent defense – that no one thinks has “quit” this year – but lack of QB play gives the Broncos a 3-8 record with one of those losses being to the Giants.
  • Compare the Houston Texans with Tom Savage to the Houston Texans with Deshaun Watson.

The Giants have just run off a franchise QB – an aging one to be sure but still a franchise QB.  If the “big thinkers” there do not find a replacement for Eli Manning – or someone who can become a replacement for Eli Manning in a year or two, the Giants are going to experience life down that rabbit hole they mistook for a subway entrance.  They can pick their QBs from the attendees at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party and the coaches/execs can busy themselves the way the White Rabbit did by rushing off hither and yon being late for a very important date.

In the end, they need a replacement for Eli Manning – and it will be more difficult to find one in his absence than it would be with him playing QB.  It takes time for most young QBs to learn to play the position at the NFL level; with a QB mentor on the team, a young QB can be eased into the position to play when he is ready.  If Geno Smith is the starter going forward, the pressure to win games and keep the fans from open revolt will be felt right down to the youngster(s) in the QB room.

All I can say is, whoever made the decision to bench Eli Manning starting right now had better be the smartest football guy on the planet – or the luckiest – because that decision is a career defining one.  Right now, this looks to me as if the caboose is pulling the engine.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Media Commentary And Baseball Commentary

I mentioned the ending of Mike and Mike on ESPN Radio; so, I decided to take that as an opportunity to check out its new competition on FS1.  First Things First is a morning sports talk program with the standard format; it features the trio of Jenna Wolfe, Chris Carter and Nick Wright.  With an admittedly much too small sample size, I would say that the show is good but not nearly as good as Mike and Mike was.  Yes, I know that Mike and Mike was on the air for almost 20 years and these guys have been at it for less than 3 months.  So, in the spirit of acknowledging that the program needs to and will improve over time, here are a few critical remarks:

  • Jenna Wolfe does not participate to anything near one-third of the time.  When she does interject a comment or make an extended remark with her opinion, it seems to be cogent and clear.  I think she needs to be a more active/vocal part of the program.
  • Chris Carter was always good as a guest on Mike and Mike before he changed employers.  He continues to be informative and entertaining and – candidly – he is carrying this program at this time.  My only “gripe” about Carter is that he does not allow his guests the latitude to express themselves the way he was able to on Mike and Mike.  He needs to hone his skills as an interviewer and to share the microphone more with his interviewees.
  • Nick Wright does not do it for me.  From what I have seen – and it is a small sample indeed – he comes across as a hot-take-know-it-all who will respond to a critical remark by saying what he just said – – only louder.  He needs to evolve.

Since I am on the subject of sports programming/broadcasting, let me say a few things about the NFL pre-game and post-game coverage on the various networks:

  • ESPN:  The pre-game coverage is cringe-worthy.  There is so much “cutesy crap” it has become unwatchable.  Regarding the post-game coverage, how badly do you wish for the return of Chris Berman and Tom Jackson to do the review of games around the league on Sunday night?  Just the two of them with extended highlights beyond the scoring plays…
  • CBS:  I like Nate Burleson a lot – particularly the way he and Phil Simms interact.  I am getting tired of Bill Cowher because he has about three different analytical commentaries to make about every game played.  I tired of Boomer Esiason several years ago.
  • FOX:  When Terry Bradshaw is on his meds and under control, this is the best pre-game and post-game show on the air.
  • NBC:  They have a mother lode with Dan Patrick, Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison and Mike Florio.  Too bad they don’t give them a lot more air time at the expense of some of the “features nonsense”.  [Aside:  Al Michaels and Cris Colinsworth are The Best!]

As December approaches, sports fans can anticipate the start of action in the Hot Stove League as baseball owners convene in December to do whatever baseball owners do in December.  Often, that is the catalyst for trades and free agent negotiations and things of that nature.  In the spirit of anticipation of MLB news percolating to the top of the pile in the coming weeks, here are a few thoughts about seven MLB teams and what they might want to focus on in this offseason:

  • Astros:  They must find a way to avoid whatever happened to the Cubs last winter after winning the World Series.  The players will spend about 3 months in a world where everyone tells them they are the greatest thing since the macarena and that they are sure to be a baseball dynasty.  Somehow, someone in the clubhouse has to dissuade them from those notions.
  • Indians:  I thought they would win it all last year – but they did not.  However, they did win 102 games meaning there is plenty of talent to work with.  Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana are free agents and could be “pricey” to sign.  Interesting…
  • Orioles:  The O’s must find a way to get started on negotiations for a long-term deal with Manny Machado.  He will be a free agent after 2018 and he is an outstanding young player the team cannot afford to lose.
  • Yankees:  They were much better last year than I anticipated.  Yankee fans are certain that the team will make another strong run in 2018 and will then open the checkbook to sign Bryce Harper AND Manny Machado in 2018.  Somewhere in the cosmos, George Steinbrenner is smiling…
  • Cubs:  These guys need to focus on baseball this winter and forget the euphoria they experienced last winter.  The team played as if in a stupor until sometime in June.  They have a great core of young talent; they could use some more pitching…
  • Marlins:  Are the Marlins really going to trade Giancarlo Stanton?
  • Rockies:  Nolan Arenado is the foundation for the team – and that is surely a good place to start.  In addition, last year Charlie Blackmon led the NL in plate appearances, batting average, hits, total bases and runs scored.  Can he do that again?

Finally, Scott Ostler has this comment in the SF Chronicle about the Oakland A’s and their continuing quest to get a new ballpark to play in:

“The A’s are talking about a new ballpark where most fans arrive by public transit and on foot. Should be a home run with Oakland’s Amish community.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Monday Football Wrap-Up

The College Football Playoff picture went out of focus over the weekend as #1 Alabama and #2 Miami both lost.  There will be plenty of meat for the college football punditry to chew on for the next week or so.  However, I would prefer to take the end of the college football regular season to refer to a feature of Mythical Picks that I have forsaken this year.  I would like to offer up here the seeding for my mythical 8-team SHOE Tournament.  [SHOE = Steaming Heap Of Excrement] The idea is simple; to find the worst team in the country, pick the worst 8 teams, seed them and have them play each other; the loser must play on until there is an ultimate loser – – THE SHOE Team.

Here is the field for 2017 with a brief rational for why the team is in the field:

  1. UTEP:  Their record is 0-12; they are the only winless team in Division 1-A.  ‘Nuff said…
  2. UNC-Charlotte:  Their record is 1-11; they were shut-out twice this year and they lost to Division 1-AA, NC A&T.
  3. Rice:  Their record is 1-11; their only win was over UTEP; they lost 5 games by 30 points or more.
  4. Ball St:  Their record is 2-10; they lost their last 9 in a row all of them by double-digits; one of the two wins was over Division 1- AA, Tennessee Tech.
  5. Kansas:  Their record is 1-11; the win was over Division 1-AA, SE Missouri St.; they lost 5 games by 38 points or more.
  6. Oregon St.:  Their record is 1-11; the win was over Division 1-AA, Portland St.; they lost 5 games by 31 points or more.
  7. Kent St.: Their record is 2-10; one win was over Division 1-AA Howard; they lost 7 games by 3 TDs or more.
  8. Illinois:  Their record is 2-10; the wins were over Ball St. and W. Kentucky and then they lost 10 in a row – 5 of them by 3 TDs or more.

A team that does not deserve to be in the SHOE Tournament is Tennessee – but no one in or around Knoxville should delude themselves into believing that the Vols are nearly average.  Tennessee is hunting for a new coach and reportedly had a deal to hire Greg Schiano until that fell apart late last weekend.  The issue has nothing to do with Schiano’s coaching credentials; the deal fell through because Greg Schiano was an assistant coach at Penn St. during the Jerry Sandusky years there and social media allegations surfaced saying that he covered up for Jerry Sandusky then.

Here is the problem:

  • These are allegations and nothing more.  Jerry Sandusky was indicted, tried and convicted of child molestation and is in jail where he belongs for those crimes.
  • If – I said IF – Greg Schiano covered up any of that heinous behavior, then Greg Schiano should be indicted, tried and jailed if convicted as an accessory.  Absent any of those activities, people who make those sorts of assertions on social media should be accountable for their statements.

Let me be clear; I do not think Greg Schiano would have been a great hire for Tennessee.  He was at Rutgers for 10 years and posted a 68-67 record there – – but that was before Rutgers joined the Big 10; the opposition in those years was at least 3 steps below anything that Tennessee might face in SEC competition.  Other than that, his head coaching résumé consists of 2 years with the Tampa Bay Bucs where he had a record of 11-21.  Greg Schiano is not the reincarnation of Bill Walsh.  Nonetheless, if he lost the opportunity for that job simply because of allegations of wrongdoing, then that is wrong too.

In NFL action, the Bills surprised the Chiefs, who seem to have forgotten how to play offense since their BYE Week.  The Bills had yielded more than 100 points in their past two games and held the Chiefs to 10 points on Sunday.  The Chiefs are in a free-fall; I said about 2 weeks ago that the AFC West race was over and done with and that the Chiefs would win in the end.  I am not nearly so sure about that now even though they still lead the division by a game over the Raiders and the Chargers.

Another surprising result was the Cards’ last second win over the Jags dropping the Jags into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans.  Blaine Gabbert led the winning drive that resulted in a 57-yard field goal by Phil Dawson – the longest of his very long NFL career.  Not all that surprisingly, Jags’ QB, Blake Bortles threw an interception with about 3 minutes to play that set up “the drive” by Gabbert and the field goal by Dawson.

Other than those two outright upsets, the surprises of the weekend came from underdogs who gave favorites some agita despite losing.

  • The Jets lost to the Panthers by 8 points but were leading the game in the 4th quarter and had the ball until a scoop-and-score turned everything around.
  • The Colts led the Titans 16-13 at the start of the 4th quarter before surrendering a TD to lose the game.  For the season, the Colts have been outscored in the 4th quarter by a cumulative score of 116-28.  Yowza!
  • The Seahawks only led the Niners 7-3 at the half before pulling away in the second half.
  • The Steelers needed a last second field goal of 53 yards to beat the Packers 31-28.

The most impressive performance of the weekend was the Eagles dominance of the Bears.  In the first half, the Bears managed zero first downs and were penalized for more yards than the offense generated; for the game, the Bears’ total offense was an anemic 140 yards. The final score was 31-3 and that pretty well represented the way things unfolded on the field.

I said last week that the Rams/Saints game was the best game of the weekend and it proved to be the case.  The Rams won the game, but the real story is that the Rams are for real.  Jared Goff threw for 554 yards and 2 TDs; Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins combined to catch 20 balls for 198 yards; Todd Gurley added 130 yards from scrimmage; the Rams’ defense held the Saints’ offense in check for most of the day.  Do not sleep on the LA Rams…

The Bucs’ defense continues to be butt-ugly.  The Falcons produced 516 yards of offense against the Bucs yesterday and the Falcons converted 11 of 14 third down attempts.  That is simply bad defense; I don’t think you can call it anything else.

There was a Jimmy Garoppolo sighting on the field yesterday in SF.  He entered the game after an injury to CJ Beathard and his first pass as a Niner was a completion for a first down on 4th and 6.  On the next play – the last one of the game – he threw a 10-yard TD pass that was meaningless in this game but surely will whet the appetite of Niners’ fans.

The brawl between players for the Broncos and Raiders should not be tolerated by the league.  NFL games are TV programming; that is where the money comes from and no one tunes into an NFL game for that sort of bulls[p]it.  I would not object for even a moment if Roger Goodell looks at all the film and suspends a half-dozen or so players from each team for a couple of games.

The Pats’ defense was the subject of outright ridicule earlier this year; yesterday against the Dolphins, the Pats sacked Matt Moore 7 times.  Funny how things can change quickly in the NFL…

Last year, Jason Garret was the Coach of the year for the Cowboys.  Now there are fans calling for his head and rumors galore that he is on the hot seat.  Now did he get so dumb so fast?  Funny how things can change quickly in the NFL …

Finally, consider this cogent observation by Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Idle thought: It’s easy to take Bill Belichick’s Patriots for granted, but think of this: Unlike other franchises, New England doesn’t suffer from Super Bowl hangovers. Each season, no matter what happened before, the Patriots return hungry and focused. Belichick is just smarter than everybody else.”

Bud don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Correcting An Error From Yesterday…

I must begin this morning with a correction.  Yesterday whilst in the process of commenting on the NFL games on tap for the weekend, I wrote this:

Browns at Bengals – 8:  The Bengals are a bad 4-6 team; the fact that they are 8-point favorites here speaks volumes about the Browns.  This is undoubtedly the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

The correction that needs to be made is the use of the word “undoubtedly”.  For anyone who was able to stay awake long enough to watch the Skins/Giants game last night, you realize this morning that you watched a brutally ugly football game that may indeed be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Browns and Bengals have a high hurdle to overcome if they are going to provide a less entertaining game than the Skins and Giants did.

I am not alone in my assessment of how bad that game was.  The Washington Post is the hometown paper of the winning team from last night.  Let me give you a sampling of the comments in the gamer written about that contest last night:

“It was about as ugly as it gets, but the Washington Redskins escaped with a victory over the New York Giants in their first Thanksgiving home game Thursday night … It was a scoreless and dreadful first quarter that was anything but watchable.  There were more punts, five, than first downs, four.  Both teams combined to go 1 for 7 on third down.”

Since the Giants were half of the miserable game last night, I am reminded that there were reports a few weeks ago that “ownership” for the Giants supposedly passed the word to the “football folks” to start looking carefully at the quarterbacks who would be available in the 2018 NFL Draft.  Eli Manning will be 37 years old a couple of days after the Giants play their final regular season game this year; despite the Giants’ horrible record this year, it would be far from correct to pin the blame on Manning; the Giants misery has two fundamental sources:

  1. Injuries
  2. Lack of depth on the roster

The problem here is that Item #1 from above plays directly into Item #2 from above.  The injuries to Odell Beckham, Jr. and Brandon Marshall would have left a hole at WR on any team.  However, the subs the Giants have put out there are jaw-droppingly bland.  The same goes for depth along the offensive line.  The reason the Giants cannot score is simple:

  • The OL cannot provide a productive running game.
  • The OL cannot protect Eli Manning on pass plays.
  • Eli Manning is not now – and never was – a “mobile QB”.
  • Eli Manning does not have many open receivers to throw the ball to.

Why look for a QB in the 2018 draft?  Let me refresh your memory about the Giants’ depth chart at QB.  Behind Eli Manning are:

  • Geno Smith
  • Davis Webb

The prosecution rests, Your Honor…

ESPN Radio’s Mike and Mike faded to black recently.  The show had an almost 2 decade run in the “morning drive time slot” here on the East Coast; there are not a lot of programs that have achieved that sort of longevity.  The show was obviously highly scripted and at least some of the recurring themes were nothing more than shtick, but Mike and Mike was generally entertaining and informative at the same time.  That is a rich exacta for a program to hit.

Both hosts brought “knowledge” to the microphone; Mike Golic was a defensive lineman at Notre Dame and then in the NFL who preached “athlete’s perspective; Mike Greenberg was a long-time sports journalist who brought the fan’s perspective and a more intellectual basis for commentary to the microphone.  They treated one another as professionals and as colleagues; when they tossed barbs at one another, it was clearly done in good humor and without rancor.

Because Mike and Mike was an ESPN production, the guys had access to lots of “guests” for the purpose of interviews.  Those interviews were an important part of the show and part of the reason I tuned in regularly.  The interview guest was not “cross-examined” and was never interrupted.  The guest was there to add to whatever topic was up for discussion and both hosts asked a question and then shut up while the “expert in the room” tried to provide an answer.  I don’t know how sports radio works in your city, but that is not how guests are handled on the sports radio programs here in the DC area.

The program came to its end because ESPN decided to put Mike Greenberg in charge of a new “morning program” starting in the Spring of 2018.  I have not read anything about what this new program will be like other than reports that Greenberg’s cohorts on the new program will be Michelle Beadle and Jalen Rose.  Since we are still talking about ESPN as the source of the program, I would assume that the same stable of “expert guests” will be available, but I have no idea what sort of vector heading the new program will take.

Mike Golic’s new assignment on ESPN Radio is well known.  Next Monday, he will be back on the air in the same time slot with Trey Wingo as his new “partner in crime”.  I will of course give the new program a try; what I hope is that Golic and Wingo – or whatever ESPN decides to call the new show – does not try to be Mike and Mike with a different voice over the air.

In addition, thanks to Mike Greenberg and to Mike Golic for lots of good morning entertainment over the past 20 years or so…

Finally, here is an interesting comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“UPS will deliver an estimated 750 million packages between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

“So it’s a good thing the Phoenix Suns are mailing it in early this year.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………