The Sports Curmudgeon

A visit from a friend and a reader yesterday yielded an amazing stat and a requested topic for a future rant.  The topic requires a bit of preparation; so, it will be forthcoming later on – – probably next week.  But here is the stat he provided:

• Background:  Ichiro Suzuki was in MLB for 19 seasons; he played in 2,653 games and had 9,934 at bats.
• The Amazing Stat:  Ichiro went 2 for 9 in his first nine at bats in MLB.  He singled in his tenth at bat thereby raising his “career batting average” to .300.  His career batting average NEVER dropped below .300 after hitting that single in his 10^th career at bat.

No, I have not personally verified that statistical assertion; but it is not so outlandish that I have trouble believing it.

The Summer Olympic Games will take place in Paris starting on July 26^th and running through August 11^th.  Back in 2012 when the Olympics were in London, the Opening Ceremony featured “Queen Elizabeth II parachuting into the stadium in the company of James Bond”.  It was a clever and a culturally appropriate way for the Games to get started.  The 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro had an Opening Ceremony featuring lots of colorful dancing.  The 2020 Olympics took place in Tokyo at the height of the COVID pandemic and those Opening Ceremonies focused on how the Games might get the world to move ahead and adjust to the pandemic’s existence.  I mention all this to show that the Opening Ceremonies have focused on a wide range of themes and expressions.

For 2024, the Opening Ceremony in Paris will take a note from John Cleese:

“And now for something completely different…”

To begin with, the Opening Ceremony will not be confined to a stadium venue.  The Opening Ceremony will take place along the Seine River.  If you have not been to Paris, the Seine traverses through the heart of the city and is an important part of city life there.  The parade of athletes will take place on the river with each delegation on a different vessel.  Instead of “taking a lap” around a stadium, the athletes will “take a cruise” for about 2 miles along the river winding up at the Place du Trocadéro across the Seine from the Eifel Tower.

In addition to some reserved seating along the river route, there will be the opportunity for large numbers of folks to “attend” the Opening Ceremony along the banks of the Seine.  The organizers are expecting more than 10,000 athletes from 206 countries to take part in the “river cruise” and “hundreds of thousands” of spectators for that portion of the Opening Ceremony.  [Aside:  There are more countries taking part in the Paris Olympics (206) than there are countries in the United Nations (193).]

There are still some tix available for the Opening Ceremony once the boat route has taken place.  As you might imagine, those tix are “pricey” even at the Official Ticketing Website for the Games.  You can go there and get yourself a seat for €2,700 (2,920 in US $).  I have not looked to see what the “secondary market price” might be for a seat at the Opening Ceremony.

Changing sports – – and continents – – there is news today from the world of college football.  The overseers for the CFP, known formally as the College Football Playoff Management Committee, are meeting.  That Committee consists of the Commissioners of all the Division 1-A football conferences plus the Notre Dame Athletic Director.  The Committee has already announced that it has adopted a “5+7 Model” for the 2024 and 2025 CFP Tournaments.  There will be five automatic bids and 7 at-large bids then.  The Committee has been charged to plot the future of the CFP beyond those two years and – – no surprise – – there is already talk of expanding the field to 14 teams in 2026.

Personally, I think 12 teams is too many teams; I am afraid that the first-round games – – and maybe some of the second-round games – – will be mismatches as was the Oregon/Liberty Fiesta Bowl game about 7 weeks ago.  [Aside:  Oregon 45 Liberty 6].  I also understand that more teams mean more games means more revenues to split up.  And because I understand that revenue is dominant here, let me offer this suggestion to the Committee:

• Don’t stop at 14 teams.  The more natural number for a single elimination tournament format is 16 teams.  If you are going to dilute the product to get more revenue, just increase to 16 teams and be done with it.

Reports say that both the SEC and the Big-10 are expected to propose that those two conferences each get two automatic bids to the CFP as it expands to 14 or 16 teams down the road.  In most of the recent seasons, that guarantee would not have been necessary since there have always been at least two teams from those conferences ranked in the Top 14 or Top 16.  For example, in 2023:

• The Big-10 had 3 teams in the Top 14 – – Michigan, Ohio St. and Penn St.
• The SEC had 5 teams in the top 14 – – Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss and LSU.

Finally, since much of today’s rant dealt with the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris, France, let me close with this observation by the novelist Anatole France:

“The average man, who does not know what to do with his life, wants another one which will last forever.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NBA will resume its regular season tomorrow night after its pause to stage the All-Star Fiasco.  Teams have played about 55 games meaning there are a little more than 25 games left for each squad.  Adam Silver and the PR honks at NBA HQs will turn themselves inside out denying this, but from here on out, most of the teams and players will take the games a lot more seriously than they have since the season began last October.  So, I decided to look at the standings to see what’s what as of today and to think about outcomes down the road.

Let me start at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  You can comfortably write off the Hornets, Wizards and Pistons.  As of this morning, the combined record for those three misery sites is 30-132 (win percentage = .185).  Five teams (Knicks, Sixers, Pacers, Heat and Magic) are bunched within three games of one another in the middle of the pack; they will be part of the playoff picture when the time arrives.

The only serious question related to the NBA Eastern Conference in my mind is this:

• Is there a team that will present a serious challenge to the Celtics for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs?

As of this morning, the Celtics lead the Conference by 6 games over the Cavs and by 8.5 games over the Bucks.  The Celtics have 27 games left to play, so that lead is hardly insurmountable; but I have little to no faith in the Bucks and only a smidgen of faith in the Cavs.

Out west, it is a different story.  Indeed, there are three bottom feeders there as there are in the East; no one will blame you if you simply ignore the Spurs, Blazers and Grizzlies.  Their combined record is better than the combined record of the Eastern Dregs, but it is still an unimpressive 46-119 (win percentage = .279).

Unlike the Eastern Conference where there is a logjam in the middle of the standings, the Western Conference standings have the top ten teams separated by a total of 11 games.  The Top 4 teams (Timberwolves, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets) are separated by only 3 games.  Here is my “Bottom Line” for the balance of the NBA regular season:

• A random game involving two Western Conference teams is more likely to be an entertaining/intensely played game than a random game involving two Eastern Conference teams.

Switching gears …  I guess that there have always been doomsayers and conspiracy theorists in the world.  In the Bible, Job cried out:

“Therefore, I will not keep silent; I will speak out in the anguish of my spirit; I will complain in the bitterness of my soul.”

However, the Internet seems to have given folks of that bent a megaphone to spread their views far and wide.  [Aside:  It would be uncharitable for anyone here to point out that I am using the Internet as a megaphone to spread my views far and wide.]  And one of the “Conspiracies du jour” is that NFL games are rigged.  You need not have the Internet searching abilities of an AI algorithm to find “video evidence” of the referees – – as agents of whoever is masterminding the “Conspiracy du jour” – – having unambiguously blown a critical call that changed the course of game history.  I say “Feh!” to those assertions for two reasons.

First, the force that “polices” the natural order of the games is highly motivated to keep things on the up-and-up.  That police force is the sportsbook industry itself which makes billions of dollars annually and is not going to take kindly to anything that threatens to kill that golden goose.  Just looking at legal betting outlets in the US, the money bet on NFL games – – Exhibition Games through the Super Bowl Game – – is in the range of $50B.  The annual profit for the books is in the 7-8% range so the profit is about $3.75B.  To put that in perspective, the Baltimore Orioles franchise just sold for a valuation of $1.75B; the sportsbooks’ profits for one year could possibly buy two MLB franchises.

And the folks who run the sportsbooks are not going to lose out to “rigged games” at the betting window or to “rigged games” destroying the credibility that leads folks to make their wagers in the first place.  Those sportsbooks have “skin in the game”; I have a lot more confidence in their watchdog abilities than I do any local police force or even the FBI.  [And if anyone asks why I am so sure that it is not the FBI that is rigging the games, I will ask them – politely to be sure – to take their eyeballs elsewhere.]

The second reason I do not believe any of the “rigged games assertions” is captured in the adage known as Hanlon’s Razor:

“Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

I would replace the word “stupidity” there with “human error”.  Do NFL officials make erroneous calls?  Yes.  Do NFL officials miss penalties thereby allowing an advantage to the offending team on that play?  Yes.  Do they make those mistakes on purpose and/or because they have been “directed to do so”?  No.

I believe that those officials simply made mistakes and were not making or missing any calls with any sort of motivation behind those mistakes.  I have said here before that I spent a lot of spare time officiating basketball when I was younger.  There is an important adage that all officials have been told and all officials have come to accept:

• There are two kinds of referees; those who have made mistakes and those who are just about to.

The Trilateral Commission have not joined forces with the Illuminati to rig NFL games.  I am sorry if the team you root for or bet on did not win or cover “on any given Sunday”, but that is not because the game was rigged; it was because your team lost/did not cover.

Finally, George Orwell once offered a parallel to Hanlon’s Razor (above) when writing an essay Confessions of a Book Reviewer:

“In much more than nine cases out of ten the only objectively truthful criticism would be ‘This book is worthless …’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

All the MLB teams have arrived at their Spring Training facilities and have begun workouts/warmups; the first Spring Training game will take place later this week between the Dodgers and the Padres in Arizona.  Those two teams will begin playing games early because they will open the MLB regular season early with a game in Seoul, Korea on March 20^th – – eight days before the rest of the teams start the 2024 campaign.  As folks begin to assess how their favorite team might perform this year, they might want to focus on the quality free agents that are still unsigned even as team workouts have begun.

The annual “free agent frenzy” got off to a fast start this year with Shohei Ohtani’s megadeal, the Phillies’ resigning of Aaron Nola and the Dodgers’ acquisition of Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  After those events, things quieted down significantly to the point that when teams opened training camps, there were still several quality free agents with nowhere to report.

1. Tim Anderson:  He had a bad year in 2023 (OPS = .582) but he is a two-time All-Star shortstop, and he is 30 years old.
2. Cody Bellinger:  A former Rookie of the Year and a former MVP, he is only 28 years old and his OPS in 2023 was .881.
3. Matt Chapman:  A four-time gold Glove winner as a third baseman, he is 30 years old.
4. J.D. Martinez:  At 36 years old, his value is as a DH these days; in 2023 his OPS was .893 and he drove in 103 runs.
5. Jordan Montgomery:  A left-handed starting pitcher whose ERA in 2023 was 3.40 over 188.2 innings, he is 31 years old.
6. Blake Snell:  A left-handed starting pitcher who has won the Cy Young Award twice in his career and who had the lowest ERA of any starter in the NL last year, he is 31 years old.

I am sure there are other potentially valuable players looking for landing spots out there, but the half-dozen listed here would seem to be late in finding a home.

Moving on …  Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week:

“Relentless: The NFL season never ends; it just switches gears. Next up are the mock drafts and the always-riveting discussions over quarterback hand sizes.”

Of course, his comment about QB hand sizes refers to the NFL Combine which begins next Monday and will run through March 4^th.  However, he failed to refer to the improper – – yet ongoing – – negotiations between teams and agents for potential free agents who will formally achieve that status on March 11^th.  There are a lot of quality NFL players whose contracts expired at the end of last season.  Let me list a half-dozen here that I think will help whatever team acquires their services:

1. Josh Allen OLB:  Not to be confused with the QB of the same name, this OLB for the Jags plays the run and the pass very well.
2. Kirk Cousins QB:  An intriguing possibility, he has been under-appreciated for most of his 12-year career … and … he will be 36 years old next year and he will be coming back from a torn Achilles tendon.
3. Mike Evans WR:  He has been in the NFL for 10 years; he has had 1000 or more receiving yards in each of those 10 seasons; he will be 31 years old next year.
4. Chris Jones DT:  A star addition for any of the 32 NFL teams.
5. Justin Madubuike DT:  Maybe not quite as good as Chris Jones, but he is a stud on the DL.
6. Josh Reynolds WR:  He averaged 15.6 yards per catch for the Lions in 2023.

If those names do not satisfy every craving, imagine the debates that fans might generate as they ponder the value of other selections.  For example, a team that needs a WR might choose between Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley or Michael Thomas.  If your favorite team needs a running back, would you prefer Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs or DeAndre Swift?

Let all those debates and rumors begin …

Switching gears …  When the Niners/Chiefs Super Bowl Game went into OT, CBS had the opportunity to air ads that had been purchased on a contingency basis.  Those ad slots were ”premium slots” because their existence meant that the game in regular time was close/exciting and of course the overtime would be attractive to the audience.  Lots of folks were tuned in.

According to one of the business sites, CBS earned an “extra” $60M for the ads it aired because the game went to overtime.  I can only imagine the high fiving that occurred along CBS’ “Mahogany Row” as that $60M bonus went on the books.

Finally, here is a random comment by the financier, J. P. Morgan:

“I don’t know as I want a lawyer to tell me what I cannot do.  I hire him to tell me how to do what I want to do.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Lefty Driesell died over the weekend.  He coached Davidson, Georgia St., James Madison and Maryland men’s basketball teams to the NCAA Tournament and varying degrees of national prominence.  When taking the Maryland job in the early 1970s, he declared that he wanted to make Mayland “the UCLA of the East” thereby setting John Wooden’s UCLA teams as his teams’ objective.  He may not have reached those heights, but he changed Maryland from a whistle stop in college basketball into a competitive entrant in the powerful ACC.  He was a colorful character and a fine basketball coach.

Rest in peace, Lefty Driesell.

Let me stay with basketball coaches for a moment longer today.  When this year’s college basketball season began, there was anticipation – – both positive and negative – –  surrounding Michigan basketball.  The team was talented enough to provide optimism; coach Juwann Howard needed to recover from heart surgery to be able to coach the team and make something of that talent.  The bottom line as of this morning is that Michigan has a record of 8-17 and on some nights it does not look nearly that good.  Home losses to Long Beach St. and McNeese were particularly ugly.

During Howard’s days at Michigan as the coach, the team won a conference championship and has made the Sweet-16 twice and the Elite-8 once, but this team bears little resemblance to those previous squads.  Howard is under contract to return as the coach next year; there are five conference games left on the regular season schedule and the odds of a tournament slot are very long.  What’s next in Ann Arbor?

Another high-profile college coach made a career move last year.  Rick Pitino left Iona where his teams had made the NCAA Tournament in the last two seasons to take over the good-but-not-great St. John’s program.  Pitino had been successful at every stop in his career save one stint with the Boston Celtics; his career included college, NBA and European teams; his life is not without scandal, but the man can coach basketball.

Naturally, coming to NYC to “elevate a program” there caused a media frenzy as Pitino hit the recruiting trail and the transfer portal.  With exactly no on-court evidence to substantiate the emotional projections, some folks began imagining St, John’s returning to the powerhouse days of the 1980s under Lou Carnesecca.

The season began well for the Johnnies; their record at one point was 12-4 and in December they lost by only 4 points to UConn – – currently ranked #1 in the nation.  But the team has floundered since mid-January, winning only 2 of its last 10 outings.  The overall record is 14-12 and the conference record is an unsightly 6-9.  After St. John’s most recent loss, Rick Pitino pretty much lost it in his post-game presser.  He has had moments like this in his past; this one was a doozy.

“Do we have sh*tty facilities?  Yes, we do.  Sh*tty facilities have nothing to do with not guarding.”

“We recruited the antithesis of the way I coach, with speed, quickness, fundamentals, strength and toughness, it’s a good group, they try hard, but they’re just not very tough.”  [Aside:  Who was the leader of the recruiting effort that made this recruiting mistake?]

“[This season] has been the most unenjoyable experience of my lifetime.”

Rick Pitino signed a 6-year contract with St. John’s last March reportedly worth $20M.  There is plenty of time left on that contract for him to have a “more enjoyable time” and to recruit in line with the way he coaches.  Stay tuned …

Leaving basketball coaches aside but staying with the game of basketball, the NBA All-Star Weekend happened.  Over the years, that weekend has featured three “events” that defined the celebratory nature of the weekend:

1. The 3-point Shooting Contest
2. The Dunk Contest
3. The All-Star Game.

The 3-point shooting Contest can be interesting but not if there are too many participants.  The Dunk Contest and the All-Star Game itself are beyond repair.

The Dunk Contest has been done to death.  This year, the winner jumped over Shaquille O’Neal and dunked the basketball.  Previously, Blake Griffin dunked over a Kia automobile.  What’s next?  A dunker jumping over a dancing bear?

The All-Star Game is unwatchable because none of the players take it seriously enough to make it entertaining.  Consider these stats from last weekend:

• East Team 211 vs. West Team 186.  That is 397 points in 48 minutes or 8.27 points per minute.
• The teams combined to attempt 168 three-point shots.  That is one “downtown attempt” every 17 seconds.
• To demonstrate the intensity level of the defense played in the game, the total number of personal fouls called was – – wait for it – – 3.

There is nothing new to be trotted out in the Dunk Contest and there is no “tweak” one can apply to a game where the participants do not take it seriously.  So, why not label the NBA All-Star break for what it is:

• It is a mid-season vacation for the players in a regular season that is too long to begin with.

Finally, since much of today dealt with basketball coaches, let me close with this observation by Al McGuire:

“Winning is overemphasized. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Back in the 1960s – – soon after scientists had discovered dirt – – Sammy Davis Jr. posed this musical question:

“What kind of fool am I …?

His foolishness related to his never having fallen in love.  I have no such problem; I have been in love with my long-suffering wife for almost 60 years now.  My foolishness relates to my obsession with trying to predict the outcome of NFL regular seasons before the first kickoff in the first game on the schedule.  And then, I feel compelled to reveal to everyone after the season has unfolded that my “crystal ball” is about as illuminating as a bowling ball.

My predictions for the 2023 NFL season appeared on the website on September 5, 2023; if you want to see the original text, here is the link:

Now the task is to take those predictions and to “grade them” against what really happened between September 5, 2023, and the end of the NFL regular season on January 7, 2024.  I will grade my picks and then calculate my “Grade Point Average” over the totality of the picks to demonstrate if I was more akin to “Football Nostradamus” or “Football NostraDumbAss”.  You can make the call…

I began with 7 “Coaches on a Hot Seat” for 2023 back in September 2023:

1. Dennis Allen:  His Saints improved to the point that they were viable division champion contenders through Week 18.  They didn’t make the playoffs, but Allen has survived as of this morning.
2. Bill Belichick:  I said then that this was a “longshot”, but the Pats were uncompetitive too many times in 2023 and Bill Belichick – – as the second winningest head coach in NFL history – – is out of a job with the Pats.
3. Mike McCarthy:  His Cowboys won the NFC East and then flamed-out in the first round of the playoffs.  I thought that missing the playoffs would cost him his job; he made the playoffs – – for a cameo appearance – – and that was evidently good enough to maintain his employment with the Cowboys.
4. Ron Rivera:  His Commanders stunk out the joint in 2023 and the new ownership in Washington had to relieve him of this position and start afresh.  As of this morning. Ron Rivera will have to find a way to live on the approximately $7M that he will get from the Commanders in the 2024/2025 season simply to be unemployed in the NFL.  I wish I faced such a challenge …
5. Robert Saleh:  I had him on my list only because he would be the scapegoat if the Jets’ season was a disaster.  It was indeed a disaster as compared to expectations, but that was because Aaron Rodgers lasted about a nanosecond as the team’s QB in 2023.  Naturally, Saleh got a pass on the Jets’ poor performance last year.
6. Brandon Staley:  He did not make it to Thanksgiving as the coach of the Chargers…
7. Kevin Stefanski:  I said in September that under his leadership the Browns had won 11 games and then 8 games and then 7 games in the regular season and that trend had to be reversed in 2023 for him to keep his job.  Well, his Browns did reverse that trend and made the playoffs despite having the equivalent of a “traveling road show” starting at QB during the season.

Three of my seven “Coaches on a Hot Seat” are gone and two outperformed what I said were minimum achievements for 2023 for them to keep their jobs.  Robert Saleh gets a pass here because at the time I wrote the predictions, Aaron Rodgers was upright and functional; Dennis Allen has gotten a pass so far – – but he is going to be “on the list” again next year…

Because I had Belichick, Rivera and Staley spot on back in September, I will give myself a B+ for these predictions.

 

Next, I tried to evaluate the possibility of teams that could go “worst to first” in their divisions in 2023.  Remember, Aaron Rodgers was totally healthy at that time.  My comment then was that the Jets stood a decent chance to make that leap and that an injury in Week 1 negated any chance of that happening.  I was way off base in saying that the Texans had no chance to leap from last to first; here is exactly what I said then:

“Texans – AFC South:  The football gods would have to be on a rampage to make this happen …”

Well, the football gods – – along with CJ Stoud, Will Anderson and DeMeco Ryans – – were on a rampage and the Texans did indeed win the AFC South.  They were the only ones to do so.

I will give myself a C for these worst-to-first predictions.

 

After that, I looked at teams that might go “first-to worst” in their divisions.  None of them fell that far in 2023; my best guess was the Bucs who finished the 2023 season with a mediocre 9-8-0 record – – but it was good enough to finish first once again in the squishy-soft NFC South Division.

I will give myself a C for those first-to-worst predictions.

 

Before I get to grading my predictions division-by-division, I made some comments about the potential fortunes for 6 individual teams and about the importance of “young QBs” to their teams in 2023.  Rather than repeat those comments here, let me suggest that you go and read those comments in the original posting here.  In general, those comments were closer to “accurate” than they were to “off-base”.

 

So, how it is time to go to the meat of my preseason predictions and I started in the AFC West.  I thought the division record as a whole would be 36-32; in actuality, it was 32-36.

            I had the Chiefs winning the division – – which they did – – but I had the Chiefs’ record at 13-4.  The Chiefs finished at 11-6 and still won the division by 3 games.

I thought the Chargers would finish second in the division at 9-8.  That prediction had no relationship with reality; the Chargers finished last with a record of 5-12.  Their coach was fired in mid-season and the defense was a sieve.

I had the Broncos finishing third at 8-9 – – and that is exactly what happened.

I had the Raiders in last place in the division at 6-11.  Actually, the Raiders finished second (via tiebreakers) in the division with an 8-9 record and a new head coach.

I give myself a D for the predictions in the AFC West.

 

Then I moved on to the AFC South where I predicted the division’s combined record to be 26-42.  When the games had been played the division’s record was 34-34.  Clearly, the individual team predictions are going to stink here …

I thought the Jags would win the division comfortably at 11-6.  Had they achieved that record, they would have indeed won the division, but the Jags finished at 9-8 and in second place.

I had the Titans finishing second in the AFC South with a 6-11 record.  That is exactly the Titans’ record for 2023, but it had them in last place in the division not second place.

I said the Texans would finish third in the division with a record of 5-12.  What I said then was that I thought the Texans were improving year over year and the rest of the division was not.  I did not foresee in any way that the Texans would end the season at 10-7 and win the division outright and get to host a playoff game.

I put the Colts at the bottom of the division with a predicted record of 4-13.  In no way did I envision the Colts surviving the fact of a season-ending injury to Anthony Richardson and then the emergence of Gardner Minshew leading to a final Colts’ record of 9-8.

There is no sugar-coating applicable here; I give myself an F for the AFC South predictions.

 

Next, I tackled the AFC North and said that the combined record for the teams would be 42-26.  At season’s end, that combined record was 43-25.

I had the Bengals winning the division at 13-9; they finished at 9-8 in last place in the AFC North.  In this case, I do plead “extenuating circumstances”.  Joe Burrow only played in 10 games and played on a gimpy calf/leg in at least two of those games before suffering a season-ending injury.  The Bengals’ players and coaches deserve lots of credit for overcoming that loss and finishing the season with a winning record.

I had the Ravens in second place with a 12-5 record.  The Ravens won the division at 13-4.

I had the Steelers in third place finishing at 9-8 and making the playoffs.  The Steelers’ actual record was 10-7; they finished in third place in the division, and they were indeed a wildcard team in the AFC playoffs.

I thought the Browns would finish last at 7-10; the Browns finished second with an 11-6 record even though they started 5 different QBs in those 17 games.  That feat alone is praiseworthy.

Overall, I give myself a C for the AFC North predictions.

 

And then came the AFC East where I thought the combined division record would be 39-29.  No, the combined record was only 33-35.

I thought the Bills would win the division with a record of 12-5.  The Bills did indeed win the division but with a record of 11-6.  [Aside:  One might think that is a good omen foretelling the fate of the AFC East division.  Hang on tight…]

I had the Jets finishing second in the division at 10-7.  The Jets finished third at 7-10.  Once again, I plead “extenuating circumstances”.  My prediction was predicated on this statement:

“The Jets were not an easy out in 2022 despite their 7-10 record and to say they upgraded their QB position would be like saying that guy Pavarotti ‘could sing a little bit’”.

Aaron Rodgers played one offensive possession for the entirety of the 2023 season, so that “QB upgrade” never had a chance to show itself.

I had the Pats in third place at 8-9.  The Pats ended the season at 4-13 which was sufficiently miserable to get Bill Belichick fired soon after season end.

I had the Dolphins finishing last in the division with an 8-9 record.  Actually, the Dolphins finished second at 11-6.  I significantly underestimated the Dolphins’ scoring offense and significantly overestimated the strength of schedule the Dolphins faced.

The grade for the AFC East predictions is a D+.  The injury to Aaron Rodgers mitigates that erroneous prediction; nothing, however, mitigates the stinker of a prediction relative to the New England Patriots.

 

Crossing over into the NFC, I began with the NFC West.  I had the division with a cumulative record of 34-34.  When all the precincts had reported in, the cumulative division record was 35-33.

I said the Niners would win the division with a record of 13-4.  They won the division with a 12-5 record.

I had the Seahawks finishing second with a 9-8 record; the Seahawks were indeed 9-8 for the 2023 season but finished in third place.

I said the Rams would finish in third place also with a 9-8 record, but the Rams went 10-7 and finished second in the division.

I had the Cards in last place at 3-14.  The Cards finished last with a record of 4-13.

The grade for the NFC West is an A.  Now if you will allow me a moment contentment as I enjoy an island of correctness in what has been a sea of mediocre predictions so far…

 

Next, I went to the NFC South where I predicted an overall division record of 27-41.  When the dust settled on the 2023 season, the overall record for the NFC South was exactly 27-41.  There are lots of mathematical combinations that can provide that cumulative record; the combination I predicted – unfortunately for me – had no resemblance to reality.

I had the Panthers winning the division at 8-9.  The Panthers finished last at 2-15.  Talk about a swing and a miss …

I had the Saints in second place also at 8-9.  The Saints finished second at 9-8.  Not terribly off base …

I had the Falcons in third place at 6-11.  The Falcons finished third at 7-10.  Can’t complain about that prognostication …

I had the Bucs last in the division at 5-12.  The Bucs finished at 9-8 and won the division and hosted a playoff game that they won.  I based my prediction on the fact that Tom Brady had retired and that:

“Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask will not replace Tom Brady comfortably.”

Baker Mayfield will never be favorably compared to Tom Brady, but he played QB for the Bucs this year at a high level and deserves nothing but accolades for his performance.

The grade for this division is not an easy decision.  The overall division record and the two predictions for the Saints and Falcons are very good.  The two predictions for the Panthers and the Bucs are brutally awful.  Overall, I will assign the NFC South predictions a grade of D.

 

The NFC North was next up, and I thought the division’s combined record would be 31-37.  The actual combined record was 35-33.

I said the Lions would win the division with a 10-7 record.  Indeed, the Lions won the division and posted a gaudy 12-5 record.

I had the Vikes in second place with a 9-8 record.  The Vikes finished in third place with a 7-10 record.  Once again, this “underperformance” may be attributed to a season ending injury to starting QB, Kirk Cousins who only appeared in 8 games in 2023.

I said the Bears would finish third at 7-10.  The Bears finished 4^th – – deep into the tiebreakers with the Vikes – – with that same 7-10 record.

I thought the Packers would finish last in the division at 5-12.  The Packers finished second at 9-8 and made the playoffs as a wildcard team and won a playoff game.

The grade for the NFC North predictions is a C.

 

Last but not least, I tackled the NFC East and thought the cumulative record would be 38-30.  Looking at the final standings, the NFC East was only 33-35 overall.

I had the Eagles winning the division at 12-5; they finished second at 11-6.

I had the Cowboys finishing second at 11-6; they won the division at 12-5.  Not too bad so far …

I said the Commanders would finish third with a 9-8 record.  They finished fourth at 4-13.  Moreover, I said that a strength of the Commanders would be their defense which I said was a “Top-Ten, caliber unit in the entire league.”  That “Top Ten unit” allowed 518 points in 2023 (30.5 points per game); that was 63 more points allowed than the next worst scoring defense in 2023.

I said the Giants would finish last at 6-11.  The Giants finished exactly at 6-11 but the Commanders out-stunk the Giants and lifted the Giants to a third-place finish.

The grade for the NFC East predictions is a C+.

 

            So, the overall “Grade Point Average” here comes out to be 1.95.

At least it beats the GPA earned by John “Bluto” Blutarsky of “Zero-point-Zero”.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Victor Wembanyama has not been able to turn the San Antonio Spurs into a dominant team all by himself, but he has shown anyone who has watched him play that his talents go well beyond his just being “a tall guy”.  Earlier this week, he recorded a triple-double the hard way:

• 27 points
• 14 rebounds
• 10 blocked shots

Please remember that Wembanyama just turned 20 years old on Jan 4, 2024.  He is going to be “scary good” for a long time.

Another young athlete saw his fortune and his future take a much more negative turn this week.  Mitchell Trubisky is only 29 years old and as an overall #2w pick in the NFL Draft, one might expect that he was entering the prime of his career.  Such has not been the case.  In his second year with the Bears, Trubisky started 14 games and the Bears went 11-3.  That was in 2018 and it was the high-water mark for his career.

The Bears did not pick up his fifth-year contract option and Trubisky signed on with the Bills on a one-year deal.  He made cameo appearances for the Bills in 2021 and then moved on to the Steelers in 2022 as the presumed successor to Ben Roethlisberger.  That did not work out; he was replaced by rookie Kenny Pickett and then in 2023 he lost the backup QB job to Mason Rudolph.  This week, the Steelers released Mitchell Trubisky.  There are at least 10 NFL teams that can legitimately be expected to try to upgrade themselves at the QB position.  I wonder if any of them will take a serious look at Mitchell Trubisky.

Moving on …  According to an AP report, ESPN and the CFP have reached an agreement that will allow ESPN to retain the TV rights to the new and expanded 12-team College Football Playoff through the end of the 2031 season.  The cost to ESPN will be $1.3B annually over the course of the six-year extension of those TV rights.  The current deal between ESPN and the CFP is for $608M annually but only includes 3 playoff games and four of the major bowl games.  The new deal is expected to cover the 11 playoff games along with those same four major bowl games.

Sticking with college football for a moment, I said last week that there were persistent rumors that Chip Kelly was looking to leave the head coaching job at UCLA and had his eye on an NFL job as an offensive coordinator.  Well, that did not materialize … but Kelly did indeed leave the UCLA job and took an offensive coordinator position at Ohio St. and not in the NFL.  It does not happen often that a head coach leaves his position voluntarily to take a job as a coordinator at the same level of football, and there is another aspect to this switch.

• When Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator at New Hampshire, Ryan Day was his QB.
• When Kelly was the head coach of the Eagles, Ryan Day was his QB coach and when Kelly went to the Niners, he took Day with him as the QB coach there.

Switching gears … The college basketball season now can take center stage in terms of focus and interest as teams are jockeying for position in order to get an invitation to March Madness.  There is no single dominant team this year that is threatening to go undefeated; the best record for a team in the Top 25 currently is 22-2 (UConn and Purdue).  In the Top 10, there is a team with 6 losses (Tennessee) and in the Top 25, there is a team with 8 losses (Wisconsin).  This could make for a very interesting NCAA basketball tournament next month.

Next up …  The numbers are in; this last Super Bowl game was the “biggest” one in history in several dimensions.

• The TV audience averaged 123.4 million viewers; the previous high average viewership was 115.1 million viewers last year.  That is a 7.2% increase in a year-over-year comparison.
• The folks who make these measurements say that 202.4 million viewers were tuned into the game over all the various platforms at some point in the game.  Last year that total audience figure was 184 million viewers, so the total audience exposure grew by 10% this year.
• The sportsbook handle in Las Vegas also set a record.  The Nevada Gaming Control Board said the handle for this year’s game was $185.6M beating the previous high of $179.8M back in 2022.

The Gaming Control Board also said that the sportsbooks won an average of 3.7% this year which is a low percentage for the sportsbooks.  What cost the sportsbooks their edge were two wagers that were popular with bettors, and both hit:

1. Bettors took an average of 9-1 odds that the game would go into overtime.  When that happened, the sportsbooks were on the hook for some sizeable losses.
2. Also, the Chiefs were underdogs in the game but according to the Gaming Control Board, 71% of the money bet against the spread was bet on the Chiefs plus the points.

Finally, an observation by author, Margaret Halsey:

“The English never smash in a face.  They merely refrain from asking it to dinner.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I assume that readers here either saw the Super Bowl Game on Sunday and/or you have read accounts of the game to the degree that you do not need or want me to review game stats.  And so, I shall not – – except as they might pertain to several comments I have about the game itself.

I was very disappointed in the first half of the game on Sunday.  Even though it was a one-score game for about 90% of the first half, I found myself uninspired by the game as the teams left the field.  You may be surprised at that statement; you will not be surprised to learn that I was even more uninspired by the halftime show.  And then the game began again, and the second half was super-interesting.  Whatever the teams did to crank up the intensity during that extended halftime was a welcome addition.

A major statistical advantage for the Chiefs in the game was the performance on third-down conversions:

• Chiefs = 9 of 19     Niners = 3 of 12

If you want to ascribe that difference to superior defense by the Chiefs, be my guest.  If you want to ascribe that difference to superior play-calling and/or offensive execution by the Chiefs, be my guest.  No matter ho you slice it, that was a telling difference in the game outcome.

At the time of the coin flip for the overtime, I said – – with about a half-dozen witnesses present – – that the Niners made a mistake by taking the ball instead of playing defense first.  I stand by that as a strategic decision when teams are playing under the revised “playoff overtime rules”.  Having said that, I think it is way over the top for some folks to conclude that Kyle Shanahan “blew the game” by making that call.  I say that for two reasons:

1. The new and revised rule was never activated.  Under the new rule and under the old rule, when the Niners scored a field goal on the first possession of overtime, the Chiefs would have received a kickoff.  The Niners would win if they stop the Chiefs or get a turnover in a regular season overtime game or in the Super Bowl Game you saw on Sunday.  The fact of the rule change was irrelevant on Sunday.
2. The Niners’ defense needed to protect 75 yards of the playing field to win the Super Bowl.  They could not/did not achieve that protection and they lost the game.  Kyle Shanahan did not miss a single tackle or blow even one pass coverage on that final drive by the Chiefs.  You may decide that credit belongs here to the Chiefs’ offense or that blame belongs to the Niners’ defense.  Take your pick, but Kyle Shanahan did not “blow the game”.

Regarding the Super Bowl ads, I will say that this year’s crop was better than the last couple of years but still not up to the standards of years gone by.  It was good to see the Budweiser Clydesdales back in the rotation.  Now if only the suits at Budweiser would bring back Louie the Lizard next year …

One ancillary note from the weekend involves the announcement of the 2024 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.  Let me be clear; I have no problem with Patrick Willis being part of the Hall of Fame.  I do have a problem with the following comparison, however.  Here are some pertinent career stats for Linebacker, Patrick Willis:

• Games played = 112
• INTs = 8
• TDs = 2
• Passes defended = 53
• Forced Fumbles = 16
• Sacks = 20.5
• QB Hits = 41
• Tackles = 950
• Tackles for Loss = 60

As I said, those stats are worthy of the Hall of Fame.  Now consider these career stats for a temporarily anonymous linebacker:

• Games played = 195
• INTs = 24
• TDs = 2
• Passes defended not available; stat was not kept then.
• Forced Fumbles = 26
• Sacks = 52
• QB Hits not available; stat was not kept then.
• Tackles = 1123
• Tackles for Loss not available; stat was not kept then.

The anonymous linebacker here is Seth Joyner and I think his career stats are comparable to those of Patrick Willis.  Joyner retired from the NFL in 1999 meaning he has been eligible for the Hall of Fame for 20 years.  Might I suggest that the Hall of Fame voters take another look at Seth Joyner for the Hall of Fame?

Finally, let me close here with these words from comedian, Joah Rivers:

“I hate housework!  You make the beds; you do the dishes – and six months later you have to start all over again.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This set of Football Fridays began in August 2023.  With the Super Bowl on tap two days from now, it seems proper to recall some old time Sinatra lyrics:

“And now the end is here
And so I face that final curtain…”

So, as always, let me review the “Betting Bundle” from two weeks ago:

• College  =  0-0-0   =>  Final Season Total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0   =>  Season Total  =  29-31-0
• Parlays  = 0-0  =>   Final Season Total  =  11-17  Final Net “Profit” = $8

The college selections and the money line parlay selections are done for the season.  I will be making two selections this week (against the spread and on the Total Line) because I will forecast the exact final score of this year’s Super Bowl.  In eleventh grade English, I was taught that this sort of “literary ploy” was called “foreshadowing” and that great authors used this technique to seize the interest of the audience.  Thanks to Miss Reed for the instruction…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Well after most of the college football head coach shuffling was underway, reports of unrest kept showing up:

• Nick Saban simply retired and recently announced that he was going to be part of ESPN’s Gameday.  [Aside:  Is this an indication that Lee Corso might be “stepping away”.]
• Jim Harbaugh ditched his job with the national champs to go to the NFL
• Jeff Hafley left BC as the head coach there to take a defensive coordinator job in the NFL.  Hafley had been at BC for 4 years with 2 bowl appearances; so, it would not seem as if he were “nudged aside”.
• There are persistent rumors that Chip Kelly is looking to get an offensive coordinator position in the NFL and abandon the head coaching position at UCLA.

I was trying to make sense of all that when it occurred to me that college basketball has recently seen a bunch of its excellent long-time coaches leave that game too:

• Jim Boeheim
• Mikie Brey
• Mike Krzyzewski
• Roy Williams
• Jay Wright

I wonder if the arrival of the “NIL Era” of collegiate athletics has a lot to do with this.  The existence of the transfer portal created a situation where college coaches needed to be in “recruiting mode” for just about every day that they were not in “game planning mode” or even “game day mode”.  Moreover, coaches needed not only to recruit excellent players who may have been “upset” at their current schools; coaches also needed to “re-recruit” their own players lest they too become “upset” and seek refuge in the transfer portal.  Now, add to that chaos the fact that money has become involved in the wooing processes.

So, maybe one of the fall-outs of NIL and the Transfer Portal is that some highly regarded college coaches just decided that they do not need that kind of hassle and decided to “take their lives in different directions”.  Obviously, I can’t say for sure, but I do wonder …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFL, their broadcast partners and the majority of football fans are rooting for a competitive game this weekend.  Folks who bought advertising slots in the fourth quarter of the game are lighting candles in church seeking the beneficence of something other than a score of 38-0 – – either way – – as that final quarter begins.  Such has not always been the case with the final game of the NFL season.  Dan Daly is a certified “NFL Historian”, and he provided the following reminder:

• “Fun Fact:  In the 1939 and 40 NFL title games, the winning teams scored a combined 100 points and the losers scored 0.  Packers 27 Giants 0 and Bears 73 Washington 0.”

Here is an interesting question posed by Dan Daly:

• What is the common thread with these 7 NFL coaches?

1. 1. 1. Hank Stram
      2. Don Shula
      3. Tom Landry
      4. Dick Vermeil
      5. Bill Cowher
      6. Andy Reid
      7. Sean McVay

The answer is that all seven of these coaches lost a Super Bowl Game before they won a Super Bowl Game.

I was unaware of a “curse” that overhangs the Super Bowl until I read about the so-called “Cousins Curse”.  According to that curse, no team has ever won the Super Bowl if it lost a regular season game to a team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins.  Did I hear someone ask why that is interesting?  Well, on October 23^rd, 2023, Kirk Cousins led the Vikes to a 22-17 victory over the Niners.  Cue the spooky organ music …

Too many commentators have put too much energy into reports about Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.  Yes, it is an interesting confluence of disparate fandoms – – music and sports; but this confluence has precedent to the point that I suggest it is not even the biggest “crossover relationship” in history.  Please recall:

• Joseph Paul DiMaggio and Marilyn Monroe – – née Norma Jeane Mortenson

A tidbit of history was made two weeks ago when the Niners rallied to beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.  The Lions led the game by 17 points at halftime.  In the history of the Super Bowl, teams leading at halftime by 17 points or more were 21-0; now teams with that lead at halftime are 21-1.

After the Lions were eliminated from this year’s playoffs, much was made of their “championship drought” which extends back to 1957.  The summer after that victory, the Lions traded away their QB, Bobby Layne, and he was none too happy about being sent to the Steelers.  At that time, he placed a curse on the Lions saying that they would not win another championship for the next 50 years because they were dumb enough to trade him.  That bold prediction seems quaint in 2024 because the 50-year mark arrived in 2007 and stands at 67 years – – and counting.

Interestingly, that is not the longest current “championship drought” in the NFL; that mortification belongs to the Arizona Cardinals who last won an NFL championship as the Chicago Cardinals in 1947 – – a full decade before the Lions’ victory and the “Layne Curse”.  Just for fun, here are some happenings from 1947:

• Dr. Edwin Land demonstrated the first Polaroid Instant Camera
• Jackie Robinson signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers
• The US Air Force was created
• The CIA was created
• Mike Krzyzewski was born
• Fiorello La Guardia died – – and – –
• Miracle on 34^th Street was released.

It has indeed been a long time since 1947…

Andy Reid will join an elite group of head coaches on Sunday when he leads a team to the Super Bowl for the 5^th time.  Sunday will be the Chiefs’ fourth appearance in the game under Reid’s guidance and the Eagles went to the Super Bowl with Reid at the helm back in 2005.  Here are the other NFL head coaches who went to the Super Bowl 5 or more times:

• Bill Belichick – – 9 times with the Pats
• Don Shula – – 6 times, once with the Colts and five times with the Dolphins
• Tom Landry – – 5 times with the Cowboys

I think too many commentators and fans attach too much emphasis on “winning the Super Bowl in any discussion of a quarterback’s “greatness”.  Consider this list of 5 quarterbacks who never won a Super Bowl:

1. Dan Fouts
2. Jim Kelly
3. Dan Marino
4. Warren Moon
5. Fran Tarkenton

They are undeniably great quarterbacks whether you judge by the statistical record or – – if you are of a certain age – – if you judge by the “eyeball test”.”

Now consider this list of 9 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and ask yourself if they compare favorably with any of the five listed above:

1. Trent Dilfer
2. Nick Foles
3. Jeff Hostetler
4. Brad Johnson
5. Jim McMahon
6. Mark Rypien
7. Phil Simms
8. Joe Theisman
9. Doug Williams

I do not intend to demean any of the nine QBs on the second listing here; they were clearly well above average as QBs in their time and over NFL history.  At the same time, I think that trying to add any of these nine QBs to the list 5 non-Super Bowl winning QBs above would be impossible.

I ran across this stat that I found very interesting – – and sufficiently arcane that I did not even try to verify on my own.  I present it here unadulterated:

• Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog in 3 playoff games in his career.  His record in those three games is 3-0.
• Patrick Mahomes now has as many “underdog playoff victories” as Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino and Steve Young combined.  Those four QBs – – all in the Hall of Fame by the way – – went 3-25 in their careers as “playoff underdogs”.

Let me move on to a review of the Conference Championship Games from two weeks ago.  The games were good to watch because they were close and competitive but I suggest that both games were lost rather than won.

Chiefs 17  Ravens 10:  The stat sheet confirms that this game was dead even, but the Ravens’ offense was inefficient at best for most of the game.  Consider that the Ravens scored their TD with 5 minutes left in the first quarter.  Here are the Ravens’ possessions from that point on:

• 4 plays – – 8 yards – – FUMBLE
• 5 plays – – 19 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 6 yards – – PUNT
• 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – HALFTIME
• 3 plays – – 4 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 31 yards – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 63 yards – – FUMBLE
• 12 plays – – 74 yards – – INTERCEPTION
• 9 plays – – 29 yards – – FIELD GOAL (with 2:38 left in the game).

I think there are two other reasons the Ravens lost a game they could have won; both were self-inflicted wounds.

1. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing in the regular season.  They only ran the ball 16 times in the game and one of those “rush attempts” was Lamar Jackson taking a knee to end the half.  The Ravens ran for 229 yards in their previous game against the Texans; they gained 81 yards on the ground here.  The Ravens’ leading rusher, Gus Edwards, carried the ball exactly 3 times and touched the ball exactly 4 times in the game.  I don’t know if this was an error in “game planning” or an error in “play calling”, but it does not seem particularly bright for a team to abandon one of its potent weapons in a championship game.
2. The Ravens lost their poise.  The Ravens were penalized 8 times for 95 yards; the average penalty was for 12 yards, so these were not “illegal motion” or “delay of game” infractions.  Five of those eight penalties gave the Chiefs a first down.  As the first half was winding down, the Chiefs put together a 55-yard drive resulting in a field goal.  Of those 55 yards, 30 yards came as a result of an unnecessary roughness penalty followed by a roughing the passer penalty.  Then late in the 4^th quarter with the Ravens trying to regain possession to attempt to tie the game, the Ravens sent 12 defenders on the field giving the Chiefs another first down.

One of the buzzwords these days is “accountability” and people talk about the importance of “holding folks accountable” in all walks of life including the NFL.  Well, riddle me this:

• What is the “accountability” for that “game planning/play calling” mystery and/or those “loss of poise penalties” that were instrumental in the Ravens losing a playoff game and a shot at the Super Bowl?
• Who held whom “accountable” and what was the “sanction”?

Niners 34  Lions 31:  The stat sheet confirms that this game was a nail-biter:

• Niners’ Total Offense = 413 yards   Lions’ Total Offense = 442 yards
• Niners’ 3^rd down Conversions = 6 of 12   Lions’ 3^rd down Conversions = 6 of 12
• Niners’ average gain per snap = 6.3 yards   Lions’ average gain per snap = 6.1 yards
• Niners’ penalties = 3 for 20 yards   Lions’ penalties = 2 for 15 yards
• Niners’ turnovers = 1   Lions’ turnovers = 1.

Lions’ coach Dan Campbell has been roundly criticized for his two “4^th down gambles” in the second half of this game.  My long-suffering wife had “adopted” the Lions as her favorite playoff team and she was unhappy with the failure of those two gambles.  I think what irked her at least as much is that I said those risks were not worth taking before the ball was snapped on either occasion.  The second of the two “gambles” was particularly dangerous.  The Lions trailed by 3 points with about 10 minutes left in the game.  Campbell turned down the option of a 47-yard field goal in lieu of going for it on 4^th-and-3.  Campbell defended that decision – – and the previous one – – saying that this is what he had done all season long and the Lions were going to play “the way we are”.  Yes, the Lions led the NFL in fourth down conversion attempts; no, that fact does not mean “who you are” is a bunch of madmen who ignore the game situation in front of you at decision time.  As Forest Gump’s mother explained to Forest:

“Stupid is as stupid does.”

There was another Lions’ decision that was as bad as either of the two decisions to “go for it.”  With a little more than 2minutes left in the game the Lions had the ball at the one-yardline trailing by 10 points; the Lions needed a score on the possession and equally important, needed all their timeouts to stop the clock on defense in the hopes of  a future offensive possession.  Somehow, someone decided to call a running play up the middle that got stuffed and cost the Lions the timeout they had to have on the Niners’ next possession.  Wow…

 

THE Game:

 

With the Super Bowl happening in Las Vegas for the first time, you had to know that something “Las Vegas-like” would happen this weekend.  Here is the leader in the clubhouse:

• The Chicken Ranch is a famous legal brothel in Sin City.  They have announced what they call a sextravaganza.  For the winning Super Bowl team, the Ranch will give players free run of the brothel for the night and spouses are welcome to participate in threesomes.

In case you think I am making this up – – thanks for bestowing that level of creativity on me – – follow this link:

As is always the case, there are hundreds of ways to wager on various aspects of the Super Bowl game.  Every regular season game features “proposition bets”; the Super Bowl takes that concept to another galaxy.  Proposition bets – – or props – – are simple statements that allow the bettor to take one side or the other with odds attached to either side of the prop.  For example:

• Joe Flabeetz will rush for more than 72.5 yards in the game

One thing is for certain, good old Joe cannot run for exactly 72.5 yards in the game so he must end up either over that number or under that number.  You, as a bettor, can pick a side and either win or lose by looking at the final stat sheet to see the official yardage assigned to Joe’s rushing tries.  You do not need a stratospheric IQ to grasp the concept of a prop bet.

The Super Bowl is a time for “Props on Steroids”.  Many props involve game action/events, but many others involve the elements surrounding the game:

• You can bet on the coin flip – – heads or tails?
• You can bet on the duration of the National Anthem – – over or under a time limit.
• You can bet on the color of the Gatorade that will drench the winning coach
• You can wager on whether Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift after the game.
• You can make those bets; I will choose not to do so…

You can wager on individual happenings in the game:

• Total number of accepted penalties = 10.5
• Will the first score in the game be a TD, a Field Goal or a Safety?

[Aside: If you bet “safety” and that happens, your odds were +10,000 at FanDuel as of this morning.]

You can engage in what are known as “Cross sports props” too:

• Oscar De La Hoya Professional Boxing Wins (39) VS. Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts  in the Super Bowl Game
• [Aside:  If you take the “Mahomes- side” here you get odds at +115.]
• Highest Scoring NCAAB Team Feb. 10, 2024 VS. Christian McCaffrey Total Rushing Yards in the Super Bowl Game.
• [Aside:  If you take the “McCaffrey-side here, you get odds at +400.]

Trust me when I say there are hundreds of such props as the books try to appeal to the interests of the 100 million or so folks who will tune into the game on Sunday.  It is an audience with wide interests; the sportsbooks have cast a wide net.

(Sun. 6:30 PM ET)  Niners – 3 vs. Chiefs (47): Most of the sportsbooks have the spread at 2.5-points but there are a couple of places with the line at 3 points.  In another example of foreshadowing, let me choose to employ the slightly larger spread for the record here.  If the Chiefs win on Sunday, they will be the first “repeat champions” since the Pats did it in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.  Two weeks ago, I thought that the Ravens ability to run the ball against the Chiefs would allow the Ravens to win that game.  As noted above, the Ravens never really tried to run the ball then and they are at home watching this weekend.  This week, I think the ability – or inability – of the Chiefs to run the ball will be important.  The Niners have not been stout against the run playing the Packers or the Lions in this year’s playoffs; if the Chiefs can run the ball to set up their passing game, I believe the Chiefs will win the game outright.  The time has come for me to reveal my exact score prediction for the game:

• Chiefs 27   Niners 23

With that prediction and the lines as stated above, I like the Chiefs plus the points, and I like the game to go OVER put those selections in the final “Betting Bundle” of this NFL season.

Finally, let me close today – – and the season – – with the way Dandy Don Meredith would declare various Monday Night Football games to be finished:

• “Turn out the lights, the party’s over
• They say that all good things must end.
• Call it a night, the party’s over
• And tomorrow starts the same old thing again …”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Two days ago, this headline appeared at CBSSports.com:

“Las Vegas mayor says Athletics should not relocate despite plans: ‘Figure out a way to stay in Oakland’”

I have said here that there are still hurdles to be crossed before the A’s find a new home, but I must admit that having the mayor of Las Vegas tell the team to “stay away” was not part of my thinking.  Mayor Carolyn Goodman has been enthusiastic about and instrumental in getting other sports franchises to come to Las Vegas (Golden Knights and Raiders).  She does not have a knee-jerk opposition to making accommodations to franchise owners.  In the case of the A’s relocation, she does not like the site that has been selected for the A’s ballpark – – it is on The Strip – – and she thinks it is inadequate in terms of traffic management and acreage.   In that CBSSports.com article, Mayor Goodman offered up a bit of mind reading:

“I thought, this does not make sense, and so why is it happening?  And then I thought, well, because they really want to stay in Oakland, they want to be on the water, they have that magnificent dream. Yet they can’t get it done … I personally think they’ve gotta figure out a way to stay in Oakland and make their dream come true.”

Does this change the calculus for the A’s ownership?  I clearly don’t know the answer to that, but I do believe that this is not a positive occurrence in terms of advancing the A’s relocation process.  My reaction to this was to recall something from Robert Townsend’s book Up The Organization:

“It’s a poor bureaucrat who can’t stall a good idea until even its sponsor is relieved to see it dead and officially buried.”

Switching gears …  With all the attention focused on the Super Bowl game this weekend, it might slip your mind that pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in less than 2 weeks.  And so, with baseball action around the corner, let me pose a question here:

• Does the profusion of “openers” sometimes leading to “bullpen games” make for a better baseball product or not?

It would be difficult to deny that the importance of starting pitching – – and starting pitchers in general – – has declined in recent years and I submit that the rate of decline is accelerating.  Personally, I do not mind the “bullpen game” stratagem by various managers but I accept the unease that other folks might have with those sorts of arrangements – – particularly if they occur in the playoffs or the World Series.

I don’t want to sound like too old a codger here, but there were times in baseball when people would go to a game specifically to see a starting pitcher like maybe Bob Gibson or Greg Maddux or Nolan Ryan when they came to town.  Are there any MLB pitchers today who might command that sort of “box office magnetism”?  And if not, is that good for baseball or not?

MLB has adopted a bunch of rule changes in the past couple of seasons that would have been labeled as outrageous even 15 years ago.  They made the bases bigger, and they added a pitch clock; Babe Ruth was spinning in his grave.  Managers came up with “The Shift” to frustrate pull hitters – – and MLB legislated to put limits on “The Shift”.  So, it may seem equally outrageous to suggest, but should MLB consider legislating in favor of starting pitching and against “openers” and “bullpen games”?

Moving on …  The NBA regular season is about 60% over and in case you have not checked in on happenings in the NBA so far, let me point out that the three teams tied for the lead in the NBA Western Conference with 35-16 records are:

• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• Denver Nuggets

The Thunder is a team that could be very good for a very long time if injuries or egos do not get in the way.  The Thunder’s three leading players are young – – I mean very young:

• Chet Holmgren in 21 years old
• Jalen Williams is 22 years old
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 25 years old

[Aside:  The oldest player on the 15-man roster today is only 30 years old.]

In addition, the Thunder have 3 first round draft picks for this coming June meaning that the core group should get even stronger and younger than it is for now.  The Thunder’s coach is Mark Daigneault (at the ripe old age of 38) and if he can manage to keep all that talent – – and potential talent slated to arrive in June – – happy and harmonious, he and the team should do quite well in the next few years.

Having mentioned Robert Townsend above, let me close today with another of his observations from Up The Organization:

“Consultants are people who borrow your watch and tell you what time it is, and then walk off with the watch.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………