Closing Out The NFL Draft

Following up on last week’s NFL Pre-Draft rant, I said I would track the draft status of the 62 players I mentioned in my original posting.  The objective here is not to predict the NFL value of any of these draftees or non-draftees; that will not really be known for at least 2 years and maybe more.  The aim is much more limited than that:

  • How close to the reality and finality of the NFL Draft can a TV viewer of college football come with his/her infrequent observations of college football playoffs?

Well, the data are in and shall be presented here.  I want to separate 2 players from the 62 players on my original list.  Two players came to me from friends who saw players and knew that I would not see them play – – and they also knew I would be doing an NFL Pre-Draft rant.  So, let me thank my correspondents and point out their record:

  • One recommendation was Jordan Magee – LB Temple.  He was drafted by the Commanders in Round 5.
  • The other recommendation was John Jiles – WR Western Florida (Division II).  He was undrafted but signed by the Giants as an undrafted free agent the day after the draft concluded.

My two correspondents have done quite well in their “spottings”.

I made comments about 60 players in this year’s NFL Draft.  Here are the data:

  • Fifty-eight of my 60 players were drafted somewhere in the 7 rounds of the NFL Draft.
  • One player – Jamree Kromah, DE (JMU) – was signed by the Bears as an undrafted free agent the day after the draft.
  • One player – Porter Wilson, P – (Duke) – was invited to the Packers minicamp as an opportunity to compete for a roster spot with the Packers.

So, what is the take away here?  The take-away is NOT that I am the moral equivalent of an NFL scout nor is it that NFL teams are spending way too much money on scouting when they could just hire a few guys to watch a lot of games on TV from their couches.  More reasonably:

  • I was able to spot potential NFL players in and among college players because I rarely had any rooting interest in the games I was watching – AND
  • I don’t “force myself” to find at least one prospect in every game I watch.

One last comment about the draft …  Everyone here knows that I like to have fun with players’ names.  The Jacksonville Jaguars team name is alliterative; and, in the draft, the Jags took two players similarly alliterative:

  • Jarrian Jones (Round 3)
  • Jordan Jefferson (Round 4)

Three other NFL teams are similarly alliterative but neither the Buffalo Bills nor the Seattle Seahawks nor the Tennessee Titans drafted players with similar alliterations.  I wonder if the Jags are onto something here…?

Moving on …  In other football-related news, Reggie Bush got his Heisman Trophy back.  He won the award in his college days, but it was “revoked” after an NCAA investigation determined that his family had received “improper benefits”.  The folks who thought that the punishment there was out of proportion with the “crime” are happy with this outcome.

I am not one to praise – or even defend – the NCAA “investigators”; On the whole, they are a feckless entity.  However, in this case I think everyone got it right.

  • At the time of the infraction in 2005 – – the “improper benefits” – – it was clearly and obviously against the rules of the NCAA, and it deserved to be sanctioned.
  • In the current incarnation of college sports – – with NIL deals in abundance – – everything involved in the “Reggie Bush Matter” seems like small potatoes.

In terms of this particular matter, things have been made right and now the door is open for others to try to reclaim some sort of glory that was denied them in the past because of “different rules” today.

  • Should the Fab Five get an apology for taking money from a booster who had already been banned by the NCAA as a rulebreaker?
  • Should the family of Jerry Tarkanian get an apology because the NCAA thought something evil might come from a photo of one of Tark’s players in a hot tub with a guy whose moniker was “The Fixer”?

Terelle Pryor was suspended from the Ohio State team and then banned from contacting anyone in the program allegedly for autographing memorabilia for a booster.  In 2024, that sort of thing is an entry on the calendar for dozens of college football players.  There is no point in lifting that suspension; Terrelle Pryor is not about to return to Ohio State and compete for the starting QB position in 2024.

The Reggie Bush situation has been closed; it feels right in 2024 – – but it really does not set much of a precedent for “remedies” in prior college football scandals.

Finally, the mention of scandals today suggests that I close with these words from the playwright, Moliere:

“It is the public scandal that offends; to sin in secret is no sin at all.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Comments On Round 1 Of The NFL Draft

Two days ago, I did my “Annual Pre-Draft Analysis” which drew a comment from a reader who goes by “TenaciousP” asking:

“Are you brave enough to go back, chronicle previous draft analysis, and grade yourself on your perspicacity?”

That is way more work than I am willing to undertake but his comment sparked the basis for today’s rant. I will see to what degree the scouts and the teams who hire those scouts corroborate or contradict my conclusions based on what I saw on TV.  So, here are data from my rant and from last night’s first round of the NFL Draft:

  • Twenty-two of the thirty-two players selected last night (69%) were on my list. 
  • I had sixty-two players on my list and twenty-two of them (35%) went in the first round.

That second data point is shaded to the negative just a bit because on my list were five Running Backs, three Safeties, two Punters and a Kicker.  No players in those positions were taken in Round 1.  I will leave the “assignment of a grade” to TenaciousP here rather than grade myself.  [Aside:  I happen to know that TenaciousP was a high school teacher at some point prior to his retirement; so, he is completely competent to make such a judgment.]

I will also try to do the following next Monday:

  • I will try to track the draft fate of all sixty-two players on my list to see how many actually get drafted by an NFL team.  That was the point of my preparing my list in the first place.

Remember that even first round picks have only a 50% chance of sticking with the team that drafted them beyond a “first contract’.  I only want to compare my list of draft candidates to the actual draft results to see how my eyeballs agree with the eyeballs and other data sources available to NFL teams.  To be continued …

I want to make 7 comments about specific first round selections last night:

  1. The Falcons’ selection of Michael Penix, Jr. implies to me that the Falcons intend only to keep Kirk Cousins as their QB for the two years in which his salary is guaranteed and then they will transition to Penix.  If that is not their thinking, then they drafted Penix to use him as “trading goods” with a “QB-deficient team” later.
  2. The Chiefs’ offense last year was less efficient than it had been in some previous seasons – – even though the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year.  What they did not have was a guy who could “take the top off the defense” reliably.  So, last night they drafted a guy – – Xavier Worthy – – who merely ran the fastest 40-yard time in the history of the NFL Combine.  Wow…
  3. I think Caleb Williams (Bears) and JJ McCarthy (Vikes) are walking into the best “success environments” for the QBs taken in the first round given the surrounding elements for those two QBs.  I still think Jayden Daniels will be as good or better than either Williams or McCarthy in the long run, but Daniels’ teammates in 2024 will not be as strong as those other two rookie QBs.
  4. In contrast, I think Drake Maye and Bo Nix are walking into the worst “success environments” for 2024.  Neither the Pats nor the Broncos are strong at the skill positions meaning the new QBs will need to be grinders – – and that is a trait that normally does not come early in a QBs career if it ever comes at all.
  5. I said earlier this week that Brock Bowers was a “can’t miss prospect”.  Barring injury, I stand by that statement.  Having said that, I am surprised that the Raiders took him with the 13th pick last night because the Raiders already have a competent tight end – – Michael Mayer – – whom they drafted just a year ago.
  6. I have a similar quizzical reaction to the Niners’ selection of a WR – – Ricky Pearsall (Florida) – – at #31.  The Niners’ pass catchers seem to be competent and plentiful.  Strange …
  7. The Seahawks took Byron Murphy (DT-Texas) with the 16th pick.  The ESPN commentators said he was the best interior defensive lineman in the draft.  I saw Texas play at least twice and probably four times last year and I did not have any notes on Murphy – – but I did have notes on one of his defensive linemates, T’Vondre Sweat, who was not drafted in Round 1.  C’est la guerre

Switching gears …  Yesterday I read that Peyton Manning’s production company – – Omaha Productions – – has reached an agreement with Bill Belichick to have Coach Belichick be a “semi-regular contributor” to the Monday Night ManningCast on ESPN.  Earlier this week, ESPN and Omaha Productions reached an agreement to extend the ManningCast alternate telecasts for “a series of Monday Night Football telecasts” each year through 2034.  I suspect that Belichick will add to the program.

Finally, I’ll close today with an observation by Sir Winston Churchill that obliquely applies to making selections in the NFL Draft:

“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

An Interesting Possibility For Tonight’s Draft

Yesterday was devoted to a rendering of my notes from last fall related to the NFL Draft that will begin this evening.  Today, I want to begin with two teams in the Draft in an interesting situation.  Here is what I think is interesting:

The Broncos (drafting 12th in Round 1) and the Raiders (drafting #13 in Round 1) both appear to need a QB.

The teams are in the same division – – and the same division with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.

After the Round 1 pick, the Broncos do not pick again until #76 in Round 3.

After the Round 1 pick, the Raiders do not pick again until #44 in Round 2.

Here is why I say these teams need a QB.

  • Broncos’ depth chart at QB this morning is:
      • Jarrett Stidham
      • Zach Wilson
      • Ben DiNucci
  • Raiders’ depth chart at QB this morning is:
      • Aiden O’Connell
      • Gardner Minshew
      • Anthony Brown, Jr.

If either the Broncos or the Raiders identifies one of those six QBs as their “franchise QB”, I would have to say that the best they could do was to pick the tallest dwarf…

            I do not mean to imply that those two teams only need a QB to become Super Bowl contenders, but they do need an upgrade at the position, and they are a bit low in the first round to have a realistic shot at one of the “top-ranked QBs” for this year.  Yesterday, I listed 7 QBs that I saw who might become decent – – or better than that – – at the QB position in the NFL.  So how will all of this unfold?

  • If either the Broncos or the Raiders try to trade-up into a prime drafting slot, I will suspect that the team trading-down will exact a heavy price.
  • If the Broncos or Raiders stay where they are and can only pick from the remnants of the QB candidates, do they draft for other team needs and wait until next year?
  • If there is only one QB left on the board at Pick #10 that is attractive to both the Broncos and the Raiders, do they get into a bidding war with the Jets at #10 for the chance to move up?

Here is how I see the teams ahead of the Broncos and Raiders in terms of needing/wanting a young QB:

  • Four teams clearly need a young QB – – Bears, Commanders, Pats, Vikes
  • Two teams might want a young QB – – Giants, Titans.

I plan to watch tonight’s Draft coverage because I think there could be some interesting movement/trading among the teams.  I will also be interested to see how many of the players I identified yesterday get taken in Round 1 (maybe a half-dozen?) and over the weekend I will check to see how many get drafted at all.

Moving on …  I mentioned here before that Reggie Jackson went to high school at one of my high school’s rivals and that he was a terror in at least two sports – – football and baseball.  Obviously, his presence in the Baseball Hall of Fame corroborates his prowess on the diamond.  I ran across some high school stats for Joe Mauer who will enter the Hall of Fame as a first-ballot inductee this summer:

  • In his senior year, Mauer’s batting average was .605.
  • In his entire high school career, his batting average was over .500 every year.
  • His career high school batting average was .557.
  • In high school he had 222 at-bats; he hit 43 home runs and struck out 1 time.

Joe Mauer was obviously a terror in high school baseball and his career could easily have been the stuff of novels.

  • He was born and raised in St. Paul, Minnesota.
  • He was drafted by the hometown Twins.
  • He played his entire 15-year MLB career with the hometown Twins.
  • And he made it to the Hall of Fame.
  • Jack Armstrong – – the All-American Boy – – can welcome Joe Mauer to the table.

Finally, apropos of nothing, I’ll close today with this observation by Ambrose Bierce:

Peace, n.  In international affairs, a period of cheating between two periods of fighting.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

2024 NFL Pre-Draft Analyhsis

For people who have recently joined this caravan of sports, let me explain what the followiing is – – and is not.

  • It is not a “Mock Draft”.  Those are stupid.
  • It is not a “scouting report”.  I am not a scout.
  • It has no “inside information”.  I am not an “insider”.
  • It has no “film analysis”.  I have no access to “film”.

I am a college football fan who watches college football on TV because I like it.  I keep a notepad next to me while watching and make notes about players I see during games who – – I believe – – might become decent NFL players someday.  Just prior to the NFL Draft – – it begins tomorrow night at 8:00 PM EDT – – I dig up my notes and post them here.

There is a clear bias to what follows.

  • I live in the Eastern Time Zone; my focus on teams from the east and mid-west has nothing to do with “west coast/east coast bias”; it has to do with games on my TV when I am likely to be tuned in.
  • I watch the “good games” involving good teams preferentially.  So, I rarely tune in to watch much of the action in the MAC or the Sun Belt conferences.
  • [Aside:  I did tune into some James Madison games last year because they are relatively new to Division 1-A football and were doing very well for that status.  Also, they are “nearby” in Northern Virginia …]
  • I may have only seen a team play once in a season so I can easily miss a real prospect if he missed the game or did not do anything that caught my eye.
  • I will list players alphabetically by position lest anyone try to infer some sort of ordering among them which is absolutely not intended.

So, with that as prelude, let me begin with quarterbacks in this draft.  As a note to all the comments that follow for quarterbacks, I have begun to change my views on the importance of “arm strength”; I believe I over-rated it in the past.  In the NFL today, it seems that QBs are asked to “layer” their throws more often than they are asked to “power the ball” to a receiver.  What I mean by “layering” is the QB must throw the ball over the hands of a linebacker dropping into coverage to a receiver who is breaking in front of a defensive back.  That sort of throw takes “touch” to a greater extent than it takes “arm strength”.  In the current NFL, I think a QB needs both skills.

  • Jayden Daniels – LSU: “Agile, mobile and fast” is my primary comment here.  I also noted “they ask him to throw long a lot” because he does that well.  My bottom line was “has to be a first-round pick near the top of the draft”.
  • Drake Maye – UNC:  He “throws a great long ball” and is very accurate.  He is a “strong runner but not elite speed”.  “First round” was my summary note.
  • JJ McCarthy – Michigan: “Accurate passer” and someone who “finds open receivers”.  He is “not very big” and that might hurt him in the NFL.  I said, “second or third round”.  [Aside:  Current thinking seems to have him much more highly rated than I had him last Fall.]
  • Bo Nix (Oregon): “Good size” and “accurate passer” are my positive notes here; “not quick or fast” is my negative note.  “Third round?” was my guess back in November/December…
  • Michael Penix (Washington): “Big and strong but not very mobile “and “throws long ball accurately” summarize my view of Michael Penix.  I also noted “strange throwing motion but it works for him”.  I said second round…
  • Spencer Rattler (S. Carolina): “Not as big as some other QBs” but he has “big arm and accurate touch passer too”.  My concern is “forces passes into coverage – – plays like Bret Favre without Favre’s arm.”  My summary was “developmental project – 4th or 5th round?”
  • Caleb Williams (USC): “Best plays are broken plays” and “looks to run/ad-lib very quickly”.  He is an “elite athlete” and “has to go in the Top 5 of the Draft”.

Moving on to running backs.  I think a back’s blocking ability tends to be underrated by “Draft Pundits” so some of my comments here may not correlate with the comments of others.

  • Braelon Allen (Wisconsin): “Big power runner who can block DEs effectively”.  He is “not real fast” he is a “grinder”.  I said second round…
  • Trey Benson (Florida St.): “Slashing runner” “hard to tackle” “usually gets yards after contact” are my positive notes.  “Not active as a blocker” is my negative note.  “Third round?” was my guess.
  • Jonathon Brooks (Texas): “Big powerful runner” with “good hands as a receiver” are his plusses.  “Ineffective blocker on runs and on pass plays” is a negative.  “Late round pick” was my bottom line.
  • Blake Corum (Michigan): “Reminds me of Darren Sproles”, “quick to the hole” and “gets yards after contact” are all good news.  He is short and was not used a lot in the passing games I saw so I don’t know how “versatile” he might be in the NFL.  My notes say, “second or third round”.
  • Tyrone Tracy (Purdue): “Screen graphic says 5’ 11” and 220 lbs. – – he looks bigger than that”.  “Used as kick returner”, “good hands on pass plays” and quick runner.  He is “not super-fast” and “blocking is sketchy” made me guess “fourth or fifth round”.

Moving on to the wide receivers … I have several guys on this list who might be excellent NFL contributors for quite a while.

  • Keon Coleman (Florida St.)  “Big and tall with excellent hands” but “maybe not top-shelf speed” made me think he was a “second round pick”.\
  • Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Ohio St.):  I said here I thought he should have won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football last year.  My notes on him say “always open”, “great hands”, great size” and “has to be a Top 5 pick”.
  • John Jiles (Western Florida – Division II): Obviously, I did not see him play but I got an email from a reader who said I should include him in my listing because he “plays under control and still gets open every time they call a play to him.”  The email says he is 6’ 2” and weighs 205 lbs.  Now you know what I know about him…
  • Xavier Legette (S. Carolina): “Big man with good hands” and “good-enough speed”.  “Catches whatever hits his hands”.  I said, “second round, maybe third”.
  • Malik Nabors (LSU): “Not very tall but breakaway speed and great hands”.  “First round” was my thinking.
  • Rome Odunze (Washington): “Most acrobatic WR I can remember” and “tall but a bit skinny” made me think he was a “second round pick?”  [Aside:  It seems that current evaluations have him much more positively reviewed than I did.]
  • Devontez Walker (UNC): “Speed ball – runs by defenders” and “good height and good hands” were positive notes.  “Don’t seem to call his number often” made me wonder why.  “Mid-rounds?”
  • Xavier Worthy (Texas): “Little guy but really fast”, serious deep threat receiver” and a “willing/active punt/kick returner”.  Small stature makes me think “third or fourth round”.

Next up will be the tight ends.

  • Erick All (Iowa): “Big man who is a power blocker for run plays” and “good hands when they throw the ball to him”.  He is “not fast” but “gets yardage after contact.”  I said, “fourth or fifth round.”
  • Brock Bowers (Georgia): “Does it all” and “can’t miss prospect” lead to my bottom-line comment “first round for sure”.
  • Theo Johnson (Penn St.):  Screen graphic says “6’ 6” and 260 lbs. and I believe it.”  “Not super-fast” but “good hands on short passes over the middle.”  He is a “decent blocker on run plays”.  He is “a project” who should go in the “later rounds.”
  • Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas): “Big guy with good speed and good hands” is the positive note.  “Cannot or will not block” is a negative.  “Late round pick” because of his potential.

Now is the time for the offensive linemen.  I generally do not try to distinguish between the positions on the OL since NFL teams move people around from slot to slot on the line.

  • Joe Alt (Notre Dame): “A very large human being” he “blocks well on pass plays and on run plays.”  “Not very athletic” but “he can anchor an OL for a long time”.  “First round for sure” was my assessment.
  • Kiran Amegadjie (Yale):  Saw him in one of the All-Star Games and was impressed by his “quickness’ and his “size” coming from an Ivy League team.  “Worth a shot in the late rounds.”
  • Graham Barton (Duke): “Strong power blocker” who “stays on blocks in pass protection.”  “Not very fast” is “probably an inside lineman in NFL”.  “Later rounds pick.”
  • Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Penn St.): “Very quick for someone so big” and “better pass blocker than run blocker” are my comments.  “Mid rounds” was my guess.  [Aside:  It seems as if folks today have him ranked higher than I did.]
  • Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma): “Huge frame” and “crushes people in the running game”.  “First round probably”.
  • JC Latham (Alabama): “Superb run blocker” and “good not great pass blocker”.  Should go in “Round 1 or 2.”
  • Hunter Nourzad (Penn St.): “Good pulling blocker on run plays to the outside” and “good enough on pass blocking”.  “Should be a mid-round pick.”
  • Zak Zinter (Michigan): “Power blocker in run game and pass game”.  “Neither quick nor fast” his game is “all strength/hand-to-hand combat.”  “Mid rounds?”

It is time to shift over to the defense and I’ll start with the defensive tackles.

  • Braden Fiske (Florida St.): “Excellent interior pass pressure”.  He is “quick and athletic” and “decent against the run.”  Bottom line was “third round?”
  • Marcus Harris (Auburn):  I only saw him in an All-Star game where he was dominant.  I have no idea how he played in the regular season, but I have only seen his name mentioned once or twice in this entire “draft season”.  Will the real Marcus Harris please stand up?  [Hat Tip to “To Tell the Truth”]
  • Kris Jenkins (Michigan): “Big body that stops runs in the middle of the line” but “not a lot of interior pass pressure”.  “Round 4?”
  • Maason Smith (LSU): “Good size, good quickness, good hustle.”  “Like his pass pressure from the inside”.  Might go in second round or third.”
  • T’Vondre Sweat (Texas): “Run stuffer in the middle” but “not great inside pass rushing” led me to guess “fourth round or so?”

Now for some defensive ends:

  • Chris Braswell (Alabama): “Good speed on pass rush attempts” but “can be run against” limits his draft potential.  His “Alabama pedigree” will help his draft position so maybe “second round?”
  • Adisa Issac (Penn St.):  Screen graphic says he is 250 lbs. which is “small for a DE in the NFL” but he is “ferocious as a pass rusher” and “takes on blocks well against the run.”  If he can “add weight without losing speed?” he can be a productive DE in the NFL.  “Worth a third or fourth round pick.”
  • Cedrick Johnson (Ole Miss): “Solid pass rusher” who “needs work against the run”.  “Late round pick”
  • Chop Robinson (Penn St.): “Another 250 lb. DE…”  “Very fast” and “very athletic”.  “Should go earlier than teammate Adisa Issac but not in first round.”
  • Jared Verse (Florida St.): “Very quick, a dangerous pass rusher” he “also plays the run actively”.  “Second round?”

It is time for some linebackers

  • Tommy Eichenberg (Ohio St.): “Good inside run defender” who “has speed to cover backs out of the backfield”.  “Big hitter” who should “go in Round 2.”
  • Cedric Grey (UNC): “Violent tackler” with “enough speed to play outside runs and inside runs.”  “Not a good coverage guy in passing game” is a negative comment.  Late rounds?
  • Jordan Magee (Temple):  His name came to me from a Temple alum.  According to my “informant”, Magee is “a terror when he blitzes”.  My reaction is that Hassan Reddick went to Temple, and he too was a terror when he blitzed.  Hmmm …
  • Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. (Clemson):  He “has the right genes to play inside linebacker” and “has enough speed to play outside runs and to blitz”.  Like his father, he will “make an impact when he tackles”.  “Third round, maybe?”
  • Dallas Turner (Alabama): “Outstanding pass rush and speed” but “will need to diversify his moves in the NFL.”  “Very athletic and plays all over the field”.  “First round pick for sure.”
  • Trevin Wallace (Kentucky):  I only saw him in an All-Star Game where he showed “excellent speed for a LB” and he “made several tackles for a loss”.  I have no idea where he might be drafted.

Now the cornerbacks

  • Terrion Arnold (Alabama): “Good size” but not “top speed”.  He “always seems to know where the ball is going”.  “Second round”.
  • Cooper DeJean (Iowa):  He is “always around the ball” and a “good pass defender and a good run defender.”  “Wonder if he is a better safety than corner in the NFL?”  “Should go first round.”
  • Cam Hart (Notre Dame): “Good size; good in coverage and good tackler.”  “Not a first-round pick but should go soon after that.”
  • Kalen King (Penn St.): “Excellent run defender” and “big hitter on receivers”.  “Looks a bit small; needs to put on some muscle for the NFL.” “Later rounds.”
  • Kamari Lassiter (Georgia): “Long and lean – will need to add muscle for the NFL”  “Instinctive and always near the ball.”  “Fast enough”.  “Third round?”
  • Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama): “Good size and excellent speed.”  Seems he “uses his speed to catch up to receivers who beat him to get open temporarily.”  “Plays with an edge.”  “First or second round pick.”  [Aside:  If my first name was “Ga’Quincy”, I too would adopt a nickname like “Kool-Aid”]
  • Nate Wiggins (Clemson): “Good size and good speed.”  “Covers well but not aggressive against the run.”  “Should be gone by the end of Round 2.”

Here are some safeties that caught my eye.

  • Daijahn Anthony (Ole Miss): “Effective on blitzes even if he does not get a sack” and “good size and sure tackler.”  Third round pick.
  • Josh Proctor (Ohio St.): “Like his height and speed” but “needs to add bulk to play safety in the NFL” “Late round pick”.
  • Tykee Smith (Georgia): “Good tackler and good-enough speed for coverage.”  “May need to add some muscle for NFL” but “instincts are good.” Third round.

Here are two punters for whom I made notes.  [Aside:  Both punters here are built like linebackers …]

  • Tory Taylor (Iowa):  He is listed as 6’ 4” and 225 lbs.  “Punts are long and high” he creates “lots of fair catches.”  Stats for last year say he averaged 48.2 yards per punt.
  • Porter Wilson (Duke):  He is listed as 6’ 5” and 230 lbs.  “Plenty of hang time here”.  Stats for last year say he averaged 46.9 yards per punt.

The only kicker I made notes on was …

  • Will Reichard (Alabama):  Not only can he kick for distance, but his accuracy is also excellent – – “field goals and PATs go right down the middle.”

So, there you have unsolicited comments on about 60 players for the NFL Draft that begins tomorrow.  You will note the lack of “coverage” for minor conferences except for one last note that comes from my watching James Madison University in a game last year.

  • Jamre Kromah – DE – (James Madison): “Dominated the line of scrimmage making several tackles for a loss”.  “Might need to add bulk to be a DL in the NFL but maybe a linebacker?”  Worth a late round shot in the dark.”

Finally, the NFL Draft is all about hope for the future.  Sometimes, that hope is fulfilled for fans; other times, not so much.  So, let me close with this observation about “Hope” by Nietzche:

“Hope in reality is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Economics Vs. Sociology

There is a hue and cry about in the land.  It seems as if some folks have just discovered that London is the capital of England, and they are appalled that such a thing might be allowed to continue to be the case.  Cries of righteous indignation are everywhere.  What has caused this mass case of agita, you ask?

  • The contract that Caitlin Clark will get l;in year one from the Indiana Fever of the WNBA is less than 10% of what the lowest paid player in the NBA will get.
  • That revelation has alerted sensitive folks across the land to the issue of pay inequities in professional sports.
  • And … those sensitive folks do not like this at all!

</Sarcasm> I am not here to champion unequal pay for male athletes because they are males; that makes no sense and is indeed offensive.  I am here to explain why this situation exists and why protesting is not going to change it.

Using professional basketball as the test case – – since it is the Caitlin Clark contract that has generated all this stomach acid – – the fundamental basis for the different salary levels between the NBA and the WNBA can be summarized in a single word:

  • REVENUE.

The current CBA for the WNBA can be viewed here.  The part of the CBA dealing with team salary caps begins on page 70 if you are interested in reading it; the cap for a year depends on the value of the contracts from previous years; it is complicated but the previously existing small contracts factor into the team salary cap.  This is the CBA negotiated in 2020 which is supposed to extend to 2027; it is not a remnant of times when women were denied voting rights.

The current CBA for the NBA attaches salary cap numbers to annual revenues for the league; you need not be a math genius to see how the NBA numbers can explode when revenues go up significantly – – and indeed that is just what the cap numbers have done.  The NBA TV deal is worth more than $50B over the lifetime of the deal.  The WNBA TV deal brought in about $200M last year.

Teams in both leagues operate with the hope that they can turn a profit.  Players’ salaries are a major cost factor for teams in both leagues and the fact of the matter is that more revenue available to the owners/teams/league means more can be spent on players’ salaries.  These teams are not like the US Government that can spend money it does not have for extended periods of time with little to no consequences; do not merely compare player’s salaries between the two leagues; compare the revenues as well.

Here is the question I would love to have verified:

  • How many of the purveyors of righteous indignation about salary inequities have paid $34.99 (that’s the total cost) to buy the WNBA League Pass giving the holder access to about 150 WNBA games nationally?  Selling League Passes increases revenue…
  • Then, in addition, how many of those same observers of pay inequity are going to watch all those games in order to drive audience numbers through the roof to the point that advertisers will pay top-shelf money to networks that air WNBA games?  That is where the big money is; the WNBA – – in economic terms – – is a television series and the value of that series is directly proportional to the number of eyeballs that watch the series episodes.

The reason I would want to know about how many activists and commentators are doing these things is that these are constructive ways to increase the salary levels for WNBA players.  These actions – to include buying a few tickets and seeing a few games in person – will improve the status quo.  However, they will not bring any real notoriety to the folks who undertake the constructive approach…

Let me be clear.  From a sociological standpoint the idea of equal pay for equal work is a proper one.  If Joe Flabeetz retires as the CEO of National Veeblefetzer and is replaced by Suzie Glotz, then Suzie Glotz should be paid what Joe Flabeetz was paid for doing the same job.  But the WNBA pay situation is not a sociological situation; it is an economic situation.  Let me compare Joe Flabeetz and Suzie Glotz in a different light:

  • Joe Flabeetz is the CEO of a manufacturing corporation that has gross revenue of $10B annually and has a profit margin of 10% after paying all other costs and salaries.  Joe makes $50M a year for his efforts.
  • Suzie Glotz is the CEO of a manufacturing corporation that has gross revenue of $100M and has a profit margin of 10% too.  But Suzie’s corporation cannot pay her $50M because that would be half of the corporation’s gross revenue for the year.  They are doing the “same job” but the revenues of the two entities are significantly different.

Yes, I have concocted the two examples but there is an important lesson to be gleaned from them.  If Suzie Glotz ran the big corporation and Joe Flabeetz ran the smaller corporation, then it would be Suzie who should get the bigger payday.  There is the sociological aspect of the equal pay concept at work; the economic aspect is the reality that the smaller corporation simply cannot spend that kind of money on a CEO and hope to stay in business very long.

Caitlin Clark’s minuscule rookie salary in the WNBA as compared to whomever is drafted #1 in the next NBA Draft is not the result of misogyny nor is it yet another example of the exploitation of women in our society.  The smaller salary reflects the very real – – and verifiable – – difference in the revenues generated by the WNBA as compared to the NBA.  And here is just one data point to show that this ought not be a “gender issue”:

  • Caitlin Clark will make $76K as a WNBA rookie next year; the National lacrosse League is a male-dominated entity, and players there make between $10K and $35K per year.
  • It is not about gender; it’s about Revenue.

Finally, I said above that the “TV rights” for the WNBA was an important element for the economic success of the league; so, let me close with this view of television by comedian Fred Allen:

“Television is a device that permits people who haven’t anything to do to watch people who can’t do anything.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Hot Seats

I got an email from a friend/reader late last week asking a simple question:

“Why don’t you identify [MLB] managers who are on a hot seat?  You do that for the NFL and sometimes for college football coaches.”

My original answer to the question was very simple; somehow, it had never occurred to me to do so.  I resolved to spend a little time over the weekend compiling such a list for this morning.  In so doing, I came to realize that my list had two distinct categories:

  1. Managers of teams with high expectations which might underachieve those expectations.
  2. Managers of BAD teams who could not win with any manager on the job.

In the first category above, I think there are two managers whose seats are cool as can be as of this morning but could become very hot if their teams falter:

  1. Aaron Boone (Yankees):  The Yankees are always expected to win and to compete for World Series Championships.  The last time the Yankees won the Series was in 2009 and they have not been back to the Series since then.  Boone has been the manager since 2018 so the pressure to win with a loaded roster is real.  The Yankees are off to a hot start at 15-7; at this pace they project to win 110 games this year – – which is not realistic.  But in 2023, the Yankees only won 82 games and Boone needs to improve significantly over that number.
  2. Dave Roberts (Dodgers):  In his 8-year tenure with the team, Roberts has had the Dodgers in the playoffs every year and the Dodgers won a World Series in that timespan.  In the last 4 full seasons – – ignoring the truncated 2020 season – – the Dodgers have won 100 or more games.  However, this winter the Dodgers added Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to that team that routinely wins 100 games or more in a season.  As of this morning, the Dodgers’ record is 13-11 which projects to 88 wins for the season – – which is also not a realistic outcome.  But if it comes to pass …

The second category of managers on a hot seat are the guys in charge of bad baseball teams and someone must be “held accountable” for such badness and the accountability is not going to extend to the owner’s box or even to the GM in most cases.  So here are three managers whose teams are probably going to be bad enough to put the manager’s job in jeopardy:

  1. Bud Black (Rockies):  The Rockies lost 103 games last year; they are 5-17 so far this year.  ‘Nuff said…
  2. Pedro Grifol (White Sox):  The team lost 101 games in 2023 and have lost 18 of their first 21 games so far in 2024.  The Sox have averaged only 2.1 runs scored per game in 2024 indicating that recovery from such a disastrous start to the season is unlikely.
  3. Mark Kotsay (A’s):  In the two years prior to this one, the A’s have lost 102 games and then 112 games on Kotsay’s watch.  Ignore the fact that the owner does not spend nearly enough to field a competitive team; the owner will not fire himself.  Another triple-digits in the loss column in 2024 could see Kotsay out of a job.

And speaking of the Oakland A’s and their less-than-wonderful ownership, the team has apparently figured out what it will do for a home field after this season is over and its lease to play in the Oakland Coliseum – or whatever they are calling it this month – expires.  The team intends to move to Las Vegas in 2028.  I say “intends to move” because there is no stadium for it there and work has not yet begun on constructing one.  But for the moment, I will try to keep a good thought; the team announced that it will play its home games between 2025 and 2027 in Sacramento.

The stadium there – – Sutter Health Park – – is the home field for the minor league Sacramento River Cats meaning that the two teams will need to interleave their schedules for the summer months.  The groundskeeping crew for the stadium will certainly earn their pay over the next few years as the stadium will see action for 81 A’s home games plus 75 River Cats’ home games.  The stadium capacity is listed as 14,000 but there should be an asterisk on that number because it includes “lawn seating” in the outfield.  [Aside:  To be fair, many minor league stadiums include that feature.]  As is to be expected, the A’s are not drawing flies in Oakland this season.  In fact, the average attendance for the A’s in 13 home games this year is a measly 6,244 diehard fans.  Last year, the A’s averaged a meager 10,672 fans per game meaning that for last year and so far this year, the attendance in Oakland would fit nicely into the minor league facility in Sacramento.

Finally, since today has been about baseball, let me close with this observation by Yogi Berra on the occasion of Joe DiMaggio’s marriage to Marilyn Monroe:

“I don’t know if it’s good for baseball, but it beats the hell out of rooming with Phil Rizzuto.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Random Walk Today …

I have noted here before that I enjoy watching the “Manningcast” for Monday Night Football events.  When Peyton and Eli have a “football guest” and/or when Peyton and Eli are providing commentary on their own, I think that is a different and an interesting way to watch a football game.  I admit that some of their guests do not add to my enjoyment, but ESPN gives me the Joe Buck/Troy Aikman telecast as an easy remedy for no-account guests.

So, I was happy to read last week that ESPN and Peyton Manning’s production company, Omaha Productions, had reached an agreement to extend the “Manningcasts” through 2034.  There were 10 “Manningcasts” last year and the program won an Emmy in 2022 for “Outstanding Live Sports Series.  ESPN has television rights to more than 10 games including playoff games, but I did not find any reporting on the new contract as it applies to the number of “Manningcasts” to be aired per season.  Not being one to look a gift horse in the mouth, I will simply be happy to know that at least some of the alternative broadcasts will be available over the next 10 seasons.

Moving on …  The NBA playoffs have begun; it is now safe and enjoyable to watch whatever NBA game might appear on your TV screen.  The reason I say that is the clearly observable fact that all the players take all these games seriously; that is an element of competition that is clearly absent in far too many regular season NBA games.  That is the good news for the NBA as it is now in a position to take over the spotlight of the sports world for the next couple of months.

The bad news for the NBA is that there is another gambling scandal – – and it must be a lot more than rumors/allegations.  The NBA announced a lifetime ban for Toronto Raptors’ forward, Jontay Porter, based on:

“… disclosing confidential information to sports bettors, limiting his own participation in one or more games for betting purposes and betting on NBA games.”

I think we can all agree that those behaviors represent a trifecta of wrongdoing on the part of Jontay Porter.  The fact that there has not been an outcry of protest from the NBPA speaks directly to the quality of the evidence available.  Here is a link to an excellent report at CBSSports.com that lays out the findings of an NBA investigation and how that investigation began.

Note that once again the existence of legalized sports gambling plays a dual role in this mess.

  1. The fact that sports wagering is so widespread and so easily available to just about anyone and everyone provides the means to put temptation in front of athletes and officials.
  2. The fact that legalized sports betting enterprises have a vested interest in not being scammed makes those entities efficient and effective sentries on the lookout for folks who might be using “improper means” to beat the books.

This is the second “betting scandal” for the NBA in the last 20 years; I need not go into the details of the Tim Donaghy mess again; Wikipedia can do that for you if you need your memory refreshed.  And in that case like the current matter, the NBA is not the organization/entity that discovered the wrongdoing.  Back then it was the FBI who ran across information that the FBI then informed the NBA about that led to the discovery that an official was betting on games including ones that he would be officiating.

Two scandals in 20 years might be written off as sufficiently infrequent as to be only of minor concern.  I think that would be a bad stance for the NBA to assume; I think the much more important lesson for Adam Silver and his cohorts to learn here is that their “investigative and enforcement” people need to step up their game significantly.

Next up …  Recall after the Spanish Women’s Soccer Team won the Women’s World Cup a couple of years ago, the head of the Spanish Soccer Federation, Luis Rubiales, ran onto the pitch and kissed one of the players, Jenni Hermoso, on the lips.  He says it was part of the excitement of the moment’; she says it was a sexual assault because it was unwanted and uninvited. Rubiales was forced to resign his position with the Spanish Soccer Federation and is now facing legal charges in the matter.

According to a BBC report, a Spanish prosecutor has brought charges against Rubiales of one count of sexual assault and one count of coercion because of that encounter.  According to that report, the sexual assault charge would levy a 1-year prison sentence on Rubiales and the coercion charge would being an 18-month sentence according to Spanish Law.  I need to tread lightly here …

  • What Rubiales did was inappropriate.  There needs to be some degree of sanction for his improper and inexcusable behavior.
  • Court documents allege that other Spanish Soccer officials tried to convince Ms. Hermoso to say that the kiss was unexpected but nothing more than that.  If those allegations are correct, those officials are at least as guilty of inappropriate behavior as is Rubiales.
  • And having said all that, I am not convinced that a kiss is sexual assault unless having me believe that it is the same thing as fondling or rape is the intent of these charges – – and I hope that is not the case because that would trivialize to some degree things I believe are actual sexual assaults which are far worse than an unwarranted kiss.

I don’t know what an ideal outcome might be in this matter.  Rubiales did something wrong and needs to atone for it and pay for it.  I do not think he should go to jail for two-and-a-half years, nor do I think he should be considered to reside in the same category as rapists.  I am glad I am not the judge in this matter.

Finally, consider this observation by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Every man is thoroughly happy twice in his life: just after he has met his first love and just after he has left his last one.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Radio Voice Goes Silent

John Sterling has been the radio play-by-play voice of the Yankees on WFAN in NYC for about the last 35 years; so, it was a surprise to read that he was going into retirement right now, in the middle of a Yankees’ season.  One report cited “health reasons” for retirement and that led me to hope that whatever those reasons are they were not as dire as the tone of that revelation was.

I was anything but a regular listener to John Sterling who called Yankees’ games with Suzyn Waldman, but I would listen to him infrequently when driving in my car in the nighttime radio range of WFAN.  Sterling was hardly a great radio announcer because – – at least I thought – – he spent way too much of his time and attention on coming up with “cutesy phraseology” to apply to the game.  One such instance sticks out in my mind:

  • Yankees were trailing late in a game and Hideki Matsui hit a 3-run homerun to put the Yankees in the lead.  Obviously, this called for enthusiasm from the Yankees’ broadcast team, but I thought it was a tad over the top to hear Sterling yelling that this was a “thrilla by Godzilla”.

WFAN will replace Sterling with two announcers – – Justin Shackil and Emmanuel Berbari – – neither of whom I have ever heard do anything on a radio.  From what I have read, Suzyn Waldman will continue to be part of the broadcast team at least for the rest of the 2024 season.

Moving on …  The NCAA has leveled penalties/sanctions on the Michigan football program for recruiting violations by the coaches – – including former head coach Jim Harbaugh – – for impermissible contacts with recruits during a COVID recruiting standdown.  The NCAA considers these violations to be at the highest level of miscreant behavior and they claim that Coach Harbaugh was uncooperative with whatever investigation the NCAA used to accumulate facts in this matter.

The sanctions include 3 years of probation and scholarship forfeitures in those three seasons.  The part of the story that I found amusingly confounding was a statement issued by Jim Harbaugh’s lawyer who represented him to the NCAA in this matter.  Said the attorney in an interview with ESPN:

“I filed a lengthy response (to the NCAA’s allegations) on behalf of Coach Harbaugh which unfortunately has not been made public and will probably never see the light of day.  That (filing) concluded Coach Harbaugh’s participation in the case.”

That sure makes it sound as if Coach Harbaugh is being railroaded here and may even be labeled as a victim in all of this – – until you ask yourself a simple question:

  • If there is probative evidence in that filing that went to the NCAA regarding Michigan’s and Harbaugh’s innocence, what is preventing the lawyer- – with the consent of Jim Harbaugh of course – – from releasing it to the public to make sure that it sees the “light of day”?

I am not a fan of the Inspector Clouseau acolytes who conduct NCAA investigations, but the complaint by Harbaugh’s lawyer along with his lack of action to show the public how innocent his client is makes me think the NCAA may have gotten one right this time around.  The Bottom Line is this:

  • Jim Harbaugh now coaches in the NFL where he will reportedly make $16M per year.
  • The NCAA can huff-and-puff/fuss-and-fume all it wants; Jim Harbaugh is going to be OK.

Next up …  Recall that the Opening Ceremony for the Paris Olympics later this year is going to be “different”.  Instead of athletes from the various nations parading in a stadium before the hosts and the assembled IOC pooh-bahs, the plan is to have the Opening Ceremony take place on barges floating down the Seine through the city of Paris.  With more than 10,000 athletes involved from 206 countries – – some of which might be difficult to find on a map – – that was always going to be a logistical challenge.  But the organizers had a couple of years to plan all that out and assemble the physical resources needed to pull it off; so, why not give it a go?

Well, now French security folks have suggested that there might be “security concerns” associated with parading all those athletes from wherever down the river in front of what was estimated to be 600,000 spectators who might be civic minded – – or not.  The security folks succeeded in creating crowd limits that would almost cut the original estimates in half, but still there is plenty of room for sociopathic individuals to find some degree of anonymity in a crown of about 300,000 souls at least 30% of whom have probably been imbibing as they waited for and watched the parade of barges.

The attack on the concert in Russia for which ISIS claimed responsibility caused the French authorities to pay more heed to security issues.  President Macron went so far as to say that the whole Opening Ceremony could be restaged in Stade de France if the security threat is deemed to be too high in the days/weeks leading up to the Games.

[Aside:  Adding to the security issues is the fact that 120 heads of state have declared that they plan to attend these Opening Ceremonies in addition to their athletic delegation.]

The idea of a totally different way to conduct the Opening Ceremony for a set of Olympic Games is appealing when one first hears about it.  But in these days of violent terrorist attacks seemingly anywhere and everywhere, you have to picture athletes from all those countries as sitting ducks on barges that might be able to move up to 3 miles per hour.  There is a potential for this to become a shooting gallery where the victims bleed in stead of merely being knocked over.

Finally, for no good reason at all, let me close today with these words from Charles Barkley:

“Curling is not a sport.  I called my grandmother and told her she could win a gold medal because they have dusting in the Olympics now.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

More Catching Up …

Presumably, everyone has their tax returns completed and in the mail as of last night.  And so, without further distraction or anxiety, let me continue my commentary on things that went down while I was on hiatus…

I have mentioned before that I have seen every final game in the NCAA basketball tournament on TV since 1954; even though my long-suffering wife and I were on travel this year, I kept that streak intact; it now stands at 70 consecutive years.  Congratulations to the UConn Huskies for their suffocating victory over Purdue by 15 points in the final game last week.  Purdue was a dominant team all season long with a powerful inside offensive game (Zach Edey) and a highly efficient outside offensive game (ranked 2nd in the country in the regular season).  UConn put on a defensive clinic taking away the outside offense; in that 40-minute game, the Boilermakers were only able to attempt 7 three-point shots and were only able to make 1 three-point shot.

I enjoy watching UConn play; five players play together; it is not five separate games of one-on-one.  I admire Dan Hurley as a coach here because he gets this type of play from his team in the era of “Hey-Look-At-Me basketball” which is the style that is predominant around the country.  He says that he learned his coaching techniques from his father who was legendary as a high school coach at St. Anthony’s in New Jersey.  The UConn players are very good on offense based on their talents; what Hurley has done here is to get them to play hard and to play effectively on defense creating this dynamic:

  • Opponents have to work hard to get good/open shots – – and then – – UConn comes down the court and runs efficient offense that gets good/open shots most of the time.

That is bad news for UConn opponents…

Moving on – but staying with college basketball.  John Calipari and the University of Kentucky have parted company.  Calipari resigned at UK and signed a 5-year contract with Arkansas just after March Madness ended.  He had been at Kentucky ever since the school fired Billy Gillispie (remember him?) when the Wildcats failed to make the NCAA Tournament after 17 consecutive trips to March Madness.  Kentucky certainly belongs in any conversation about the bluebloods of college basketball, but the expectations of the fanbase there are quite unrealistic.  It is almost as if they believe that Kentucky should have a slot in the Final Four each year as its birth right.

Calipari’s coaching vision is to play the “one-and-done” game by recruiting top shelf high school players who are only in college because they are not allowed to play in the NBA by dint of the CBA between the league and the players’ union.  Most of those players are extremely gifted with physical talents but Kentucky does not win lots of championships that way because:

  • Those players are 19 years old at most and they often have to play against opponents who are 23 or 24 years old.  Physical maturity matters; that is why many one-and-done lottery picks in the NBA take a couple of years to have any real impact on the NBA game.
  • Those players know they are not into Kentucky basketball for the long run.  They appear to resist hard coaching, and they certainly do not play defense with the intensity or the dedication of teams like UConn.

Consider these data compiled over the 16 seasons that John Calipari was the head coach at Kentucky:

  • In those 16 seasons, Calipari recruited 52 players who went on to be first-round picks by NBA teams – – and yet – –
  • The school won exactly 1 NCAA championship.  That is the same number of championships won by Joe B. Hall, Rick Pitino and Tubby Smith.

Mark Pope – late of the BYU basketball program – has been hired to replace Calipari at Kentucky.  I hope his teams do well starting in November 2024 because he is probably on a much shorter leash with the fanbase there than he realizes at this point.

Switching gears …  I would be remiss if I did not point out that the women’s tournament this year was historic.  For the first time ever, the women’s final game out drew the men’s final game on TV.  Surely, the celebrity factor that Caitlin Clark brought to the Iowa games and the undefeated status of Dawn Staley’s South Carolina team generated tons of interest in those tournament games.  Presumably, some of that interest will carry over to next year – – perhaps most of it?

And another thing …  When we got home last week, I spent some time watching The Masters on Friday.  Look, I am not a big “golf guy” but I usually check out some of the coverage of the majors.  The coverage last Friday was not for The Masters; it was for Tiger Woods.  He was not really in contention although he did “make the cut” but I saw him on camera more than any three or five other players combined.  [Aside:  Woods did make the cut and then proceeded to shoot 82 followed by 77 to finish 100th in the field – – 27 strokes behind the winner, Scottie Scheffler.]

When Tiger Woods was clearly the best golfer on the planet, that level of coverage was excessive; but at least, there was a basis for the excess.  Tiger Woods is no longer anywhere near that status.  Maybe it’s because I am not a ‘golf guy”, but the constant and fawning coverage of Woods is a turn-off for me; I want to see and follow the guys who are vying for the lead not the guys scrambling to be allowed to play on Saturday and Sunday.

Finally, since much of today dealt with college basketball happenings, let me close with these words from Al McGuire:

“Winning is overemphasized.  The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Rest in Peace, OJ Simpson

Today, I will at least partially catch up with comments on events from the past week that I have been on hiatus – – watching the total eclipse in the Texas Hill country just west of Austin, TX.  The first catch-up item is the passing of OJ Simpson due to cancer.  Given the outpouring of vitriol that his death evoked, it is safe to say that many people’s feelings that he got away with a double murder have not mellowed much over the last 30 years or so.

  • [Aside:  I recognize and support the fact that OJ Simpson was found “Not Guilty” at trial.  Nonetheless, I am one of the people who believe that he did commit those two murders and that his acquittal was based on having far more competent legal representation in the matter than the prosecution had.]

OJ Simpson left a legacy on the NFL as a great player; his murder trial left a legacy on cable TV because it drew networks like CNN and Court TV (now TruTV) into the mainstream.  That trial also highlighted the fact that wealthy defendants have a much better chance of prevailing in court matters in the US than do defendants of meager means.

Simpson’s passing raises a question that might be interesting:

  • Which iconic athlete had the greatest fall from grace?
      • Lance Armstrong
      • Pete Rose
      • OJ Simpson
      • Tiger Woods
  • You make the call …

The phrase, “Rest in peace,” is usually reserved for one who has just passed.  In this case, perhaps that phrase can be offered up to the deceased – – OJ Simpson – – and to everyone whose knee jerk reaction to news of his death was hatred and venom.

Moving on …  I am not a conspiracy theorist; and whenever an argument is made wherein a key element of the “logic” is the absence of evidence to the contrary, I usually tune out and go on to the next item.  However, the Monogatari – Shohei Ohtani – – as I have dubbed that story – – smells rotten to me.  And yes, I acknowledge that my issue with the story as it stands relies on some “absence of evidence”.  Nevertheless …

This story keeps changing in more than mere details.  The first iteration was that Ohtani’s interpreter, Ippei Muzihara, had paid $4.5M to an offshore bookie in $500K increments using Ohtani’s funds to pay off gambling debts.  Later that amount was reported to be $16M which is quite a jump but is nothing compared to the now alleged “gambling losses” of $41.5M over the course of less than 3 years.  Muzihara’s income has been reported to be as low as $80K per year and as high as $300K per year which is another unusually high inconsistency in the reporting but even at the highest reported number, one must wonder how someone with that income can “get credit” from a bookie to the tune of $41.5M.

Now, the allegations have shifted from “gambling losses” to “bank fraud” perpetrated by Muzihara.  Bank fraud has a far smaller emotional component when associated with MLB than does gambling debt payoffs; there can be no argument about that.  But some of the other details that are emerging from the story defy logic:

  • Supposedly there were about 19,000 bets made that racked up the losses in this case and all this happened over a 30-month period between 2021 and now.
  • Simple arithmetic says that comes down to about 630 bets per month and more than 20 bets per day for 2.5 years – – and Ohtani never had an inkling it was going on.
  • In addition, neither Ohtani nor his agents/accountants/financial advisors noticed a series of $500K transfers from his accounts?

There is an event from about 10 years ago that I cannot get out of my mind whenever I read the next installment of Monogatari – Shohei Ohtani.  Cris Carter was once invited to address an NFL “Rookie Seminar” as part of a program the league used to try to get young players attuned to their new life of “fame and fortune”.  Carter told the rookie players:

“If you all got a crew, you got to have a fall guy in the crew.  If you all have a crew, one of those fools got to know, he’s the one going to jail. We’ll get him out.”

I can’t get that memory suppressed at all when I think of this Ohtani mess, and it sure seems to me that MLB has conveniently deferred any and all of this to “the authorities” as opposed to commissioning another John Dowd style investigation as was the case in the Pete Rose affair.  Rose’s playing days were over; he was only a manager; his value to MLB was limited.  Ohtani is the biggest star in the game today and brings back comparisons to Babe Ruth and the glorious history of baseball; his value to MLB is unmatched.

  • How convenient is it that there just might be a “fall guy” to cop a plea to “bank fraud” while MLB goes on marketing its face of the game without any serious investigation related to gambling – – and potentially gambling on baseball?

This whole thing stinks.  What it needs is an investigative reporter or two – – the modern-day version of Woodward and Bernstein or maybe Seymour Hersh – – to dig in here.  Maybe that is what Commissioner Manfred might need as a prod to do a serious investigation of its own.

Finally, comedian Norm MacDonald used to use his persona on SNL as the “news anchor” to skewer repeatedly OJ Simpson as a murderer.  Let me close with what I think is the funniest of his “news reports”:

“Against the Jets last week, Buffalo Bills running back Thurman Thomas broke O.J. Simpson’s career rushing record, and the week before he surpassed Simpson’s career touchdowns. Next up for Thomas: an attempt to kill three people at once.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………