The Sports Curmudgeon

The National League playoffs are set.  The two teams with “home field advantage” took gas in that final game with the home field advantage.  The Cardinals scored early and often beating the Braves 13-1.  The Dodgers lost to the Nationals in the late innings ending a season that saw them win a franchise record 106 games.

I had no idea who would be the NL pennant winner this year, and I had no “favorite team” in the fight.  I thought the Braves were a better team than the Cardinals by a small margin – – but the Cards showed me on the field that I was wrong.

The Nationals had been in a Game 5 situation 3 times in the past and had lost in all those situations.  Not this time…

There is a report this morning out of Philly that Gabe Kapler has been fired as the Phillies’ manager.  He has been there 2 years and his record is 161-163; it is fair to say that his record defines mediocrity.

Sticking with baseball stuff, Commissioner Rob Manfred seems to be turning up the heat on the politicos in Oakland.  The A’s have finally identified a site to build a new stadium in the Bay Area – down in the port region.  For the owner to finance that construction – with some MLB help – he says he needs the revenue that would be generated from a real estate development deal at the site of the current stadium – the Oakland Coliseum.  The owner of the A’s wants to buy the 50% share of the land/stadium tract from Alameda Count which wants out of the business of owning/running a stadium.  Sounds simple, right?  Here is the problem:

• The City of Oakland also wants to buy the 50% interest in the site – – but the City of Oakland does not have the funds on hand to close the deal.  The A’s owner has offered $85M for the site.
• So, the City of Oakland has filed a suit against Alameda County to block the sale to the A’s owner claiming that State law requires publicly owned land to be under consideration for affordable housing before being sold to private interests and Alameda County did not do that.

Rob Manfred weighed in here supposedly telling the Oakland mayor that if the suit is not dropped so that the Coliseum development and the new stadium construction can proceed together as a “package deal”, then the A’s just might have to move to Las Vegas.  [Aside:  There is no major league quality stadium in Las Vegas now, but there is high probability, that hurdle could be crossed.]  For more details on this matter, here is a link.

The Oakland pols are in a bind here.  The city has already lost the Warriors to a new home in San Francisco and the city has already lost the Raiders to Las Vegas.  For years, the city has made it clear that it was not going to spend public funds on a new stadium for the A’s.  Now, MLB has threatened to take the team out of the Bay Area entirely if the city does not stop trying to throw a monkey wrench into the works of the A’s finding a new venue.  [Aside:  With the demise of Shea Stadium a while back, the A’s have had to play in the worst MLB venue of all.  What the Oakland Coliseum needs is the wrecking ball.]

Your move, Madame Mayor…

There is another baseball item worth a moment’s consideration today.  MLB saw a small decline in live gate attendance for the 2019 regular season; 68.5M folks found their way to MLB games this season as compared to 69.7M fans in 2018.  To put this in perspective, the high-water mark for MLB regular season attendance was way back in 2007 when 79.5M fans went through the turnstiles.  Some individual team stats regarding attendance are interesting:

• 16 of the 30 teams showed an increase in attendance over 2018.  [Aside:That is technically correct but consider that one team showing an increase – the Miami Marlins – increased by 2 fans per game.]
• The Phillies – is this “The Bryce Harper Effect?” – had the largest increase in attendance year-over-year drawing 569,267 more fans in 2019 than in 2018.
• Two teams – the Mariners and the Blue Jays – saw home attendance drop by more than 500,000 fans this year.
• Three teams that made the playoffs – the Astros, Yankees and Nats – all saw attendance go down in 2019.  The Nats showed the largest decline of the three having 269,823 fewer fans show up for their games.
• The Dodgers set a franchise record for attendance in 2019 drawing 3,974,309 people to Dodgers Stadium.  Four other teams – the Cardinals, Yankees, Cubs and Angels – drew more than 3,000,000 fans in 2019.
• At the other end of the spectrum, the Marlins drew fewer than 1,000,000 fans for the second year in a row attracting only 811,302 patient souls to the ballpark.

It seems that the big factor in the decline this year is a drop in season ticket sales and game package sales.  On the other hand, single game sales showed an increase.  This is not necessarily a crisis for MLB; 68.5M fans in attendance is not a trivial number.  Moreover, minor league baseball attendance showed a significant increase over 2018.  In 2019 minor league attendance was 41M fans and that is a 2.6% increase over 2018.

Finally, having mentioned stadium matters above, let me close with this observation from Brad Rock, formerly with the Deseret News:

“Dodger Stadium is undergoing a $100 million renovation.

“Plans include a new entertainment plaza, a beer garden, improved seating and two sports bars.

“Dodger Dogs will continue unchanged for another 1,000 years or so, before being retired to right field with their own monument.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I read a report a few weeks ago that attendance at UCLA football games is becoming problematic.  According to Yahoo! Sports, UCLA gave away tickets to the UCLA home game against Oklahoma earlier this year and the recipients of the free tickets chose to do something other than go to the game.  Every season ticket holder was given 4 free tickets to the game; a total of 75,000 tickets were issued; the announced attendance was 52,578; looking at photos of the stadium, some of those 52,578 folks must have worn a Klingon Cloak of Invisibility to the stadium.

It seems that waning attendance at UCLA home games is not isolated to this one instance – a game where it certainly appeared as if UCLA was overmatched and was likely to be on the short end of a blowout score.  I think there are several reasons behind these attendance woes:

1. UCLA football has not been highly relevant for a while.  Since 1986, UCLA has been to the Rose Bowl twice.  Its last 5 bowl appearances have been to marginally relevant contests in the Cactus Bowl, Foster Farms Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Sun Bowl and Holiday Bowl.
2. UCLA football has never enjoyed the stature of UCLA basketball.  UCLA football was routinely considered “the other college team” in LA after USC.
3. UCLA plays its home football games in the Rose Bowl which is in Pasadena about 30 miles from the UCLA campus.  In LA traffic, those 30 miles or so are not ones that are normally traversed at typical highway speeds.

If any of the Athletic Department mavens have not yet figured this out, their football games offer two very unattractive aspects to potential attendees:

1. The team loses as often as it wins – and when the opponent is a top-shelf team the expectation is to see your home team take a drubbing.
2. It is inconvenient at best – and more like a pain in the ass – to get to and from the venue where the game will take place.

Ka-beesh…?

Switching gears…  The XFL is going to hold its draft next week over a two-day period.  Not surprisingly, the XFL Draft will not resemble any other draft in any other professional league in the US.  At the end of the process, each team will have 71 players on its roster; I don’t know if teams can sign free agents since my understanding is that all player contracts are with the league and not with the individual teams.  I’ll leave that item as a TBD question…

The draft will consist of 6 Rounds.  Here is how it will go:

• Round 1:  Before any team takes any player from the draft pool, the league will assign 1 QB to each of the 8 teams.  That is all I know about this round; I don’t know who will make the assignments or what criteria will be in play as the assignments are made.  I have no idea if the teams can trade the player assigned to them during or after the draft.  All I know is that at the end of Round 1, every team will have 1 QB on its roster whether it wanted that QB or not.
• Round 2:  Using a snake draft, each of the eight teams will draft 10 players who are designated as “Skill Position Players”.  These will include QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs.  [Aside:  A snake draft is often the model used to draft players in a fantasy league.]  It is not clear how the order of selection for Round 2 will be determined.
• Round 3:  Using a snake draft again – but with a different order for the teams – each of the 8 teams will select 10 players designated as “Offensive Linemen”.
• Round 4:  Using a snake draft again – and with het another order of the teams – each of the 8 teams will select 10 players designated as “Defensive Lineman” or “Linebacker”.
• Round 5:  Using a snake draft again – with yet another ordering of the teams – each of the 8 teams will select 10 players designated as “Defensive Backs”.
• Round 6:  Using a snake draft yet again, each of the 8 teams will select 30 players from the draft pool that is left after Rounds 1 through 5.

Clearly, Round 6 is where teams will find their punter, kicker and probably their long-snapper.  Round 4 – the one where teams pick defensive linemen and linebackers – seems the most difficult one to me.  Each team will need 7 starters in those positions and 4 backups at the very least.  Taking only 10 players in this round, tells me that teams will need to be most efficient and judicious in their selections.

The XFL Draft will not be televised and given the timing restrictions it would not make for interesting television.  After the announcement of the assigned QBs in Round 1, the draft will proceed through Rounds 2, 3 and 4 on the first day with each team having 90 seconds to make their selection.  Even if Mel Kiper, Jr. were available to make comments on the picks here, it would be useless since it takes Mel Kiper, Jr. at least 60 seconds to tell you if it’s raining outside.

Eight XFL teams will have rosters of 71 players by the end of next week.  I am trying to guess how many of the 568 names I will recognize once it is finished.  My guess is 150 players or a little more than 25% of the league.

Finally, let me close today with a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Coffee:  A laxative that you can buy in the same places that sell croissants.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am sure you have heard or read about the “international incident” that is really a kerfuffle caused by a Tweet from the GM of the Houston Rockets.  Daryl Morey – in a Tweet since taken down – expressed his support for the Hong Kong protestors; the Chinese government and the people who run basketball in China took umbrage at that; there have been economic repercussions already.  I will not go into the details here; you can find good reporting on the subject here.

There are two aspects of this kerfuffle that transcend the current state of conflict between the NBA and the Chinese folks who care about basketball.  The first one is simple and direct:

• This is not a “free speech issue”.

Daryl Morey exercised his free expression with his Tweet.  No one seeks to criminalize that action.  That is what the First Amendment protects against and it is not in play here.  US politicians on both ends of the political spectrum have felt it necessary to comment on all this and most of them immediately take the position that they are defenders of free speech.  Good for them; now, if we could only get them to understand what it is that they are defending.

The fact is that free expression is one of the pillars of US democracy.  The fact is that free expression is not protected, valued or even tolerated in some parts of the world outside the US.  We can wring our hands and bemoan that second fact, but it remains a fact.

Moreover, when one exercises one’s free speech rights here in the US, that does not immunize one from all consequences.  If a journalist makes up “facts” and synthesizes quotations from imaginary sources to enhance reporting, you could argue that the journalist is exercising his free expression.  And he/she is doing just that; he/she will not be prosecuted for doing so, but he/she is almost assuredly going to be fired by his/her employer for doing so.  If that is too abstract for you, just think about Colin Kaepernick.

The second aspect of this kerfuffle that I find interesting is the PR dance that the NBA must now perform.  The NBA has portrayed itself as ever so politically correct and inclusive.  Here are several examples:

• They do not refer to team owners as “owners” because that may have a bad connotation for the African American players in the league.  Owners are now referred to as “governors” – – as if that makes any difference and might not be offensive to anyone anywhere.
• They express pride that the players in the NBA have certain powers of control over their careers that players in other sports do not – – as they wink in the direction of the NFL.
• They threatened to take their All-Star game out of North Carolina when the state legislature enacted a gender-specific bathroom law that was not in line with NBA thinking.  [Aside:  That is exactly what the Chinese are doing now.]
• They openly supported Colin Kaepernick in his confrontation with the NFL.

Now, the NBA finds itself at odds with its “Chinese partners” who have already begun to withhold some economic benefits from the Rockets specifically and the NBA more generally.  They will have to navigate a way through a minefield here without looking too much like hypocrites while they try to repair the damages done to one of their revenue streams and to their access to the Chinese basketball market.

Personally, I think the situation the NBA finds itself in today is an inevitable consequence of the NBA’s decision to try to exploit the Chinese marketplace once it was clear that Yao Ming had established a natural way for the NBA to try to access the emerging middle class in a country with 1.4 billion people.  The political, economic and social systems of China and the US are not the same and I believe that it is impossible to do billions of dollars’ worth of business with China and not encounter situations where the two systems butt heads.  The sane way to approach such “head butting incidents” is to keep them low-key and one of the best ways to keep them low-key is to avoid screaming “Free Speech” at the onset of the confrontation.

Switching gears…  The Skins fired Jay Gruden at 5:00 AM yesterday.  Already you can find articles speculating on his replacement; talk about jumping the gun.  If I had any insight as to who may or may not be on the Skins’ radar, I would have to be a mind reader; I am not a mind reader AND I can assure you that if I could read minds I would not choose Danny Boy Snyder and/or Bruce Allen as the minds I would want to read.  So, let me offer some facts and opinions here for you to keep in mind as you encounter the speculations that have begun and will continue to emerge:

• Danny Boy Snyder has owned the team since 1999.  Counting interim coaches, Bill Callahan – the incumbent as of yesterday – is the 10^th head coach since Danny Boy took the helm.
• Over that period, he has had two “confidants” – or “Enablers-in-chief” – in the Skins’ organization.  He and they have made the coaching decisions over the past two decades.
• None of the previous coaches – one of which is in the Hall of Fame and another of which has won 2 Super Bowls – left Washington with a winning record.
• The same folks will be doing the interviewing and hiring this time.  Why should anyone expect anything different to happen?

Danny Boy Snyder has already tried just about every formulaic approach to finding the next great coach who will take the Skins to the pinnacle of the NFL.

• He inherited a highly successful coordinator – Norv Turner.
• After he fired Turner because he would not play Jeff George at QB, he hired the highly successful NFL coach who had won more than 60% of his games – Marty Schottenheimer.
• After he fired Schottenheimer the next year when the team went 8-8, he hired the college coaching whiz who was going to revolutionize the NFL – Steve Spurrier.
• After Spurrier called in his resignation from a golf course, Danny Boy Snyder hired the franchise legend to come back and right the ship – Joe Gibbs.
• After Gibbs left the post, he hired the guy who was willing to take the job – Jim Zorn.
• When he fired Zorn (who was in no way ready for a head coaching position in the first place) he hired the former Super Bowl winning coach who had taken a year’s sabbatical – Mike Shanahan.
• When he fired Shanahan, he hired the young, up-and-coming NFL coordinator who was the hot commodity of the season – Jay Gruden.

Danny Boy Snyder and Bruce Allen have pushed all the buttons and it has not worked yet.  In addition, there is some strong evidence that they would not recognize nascent coaching expertise if it were present and bit them on their collective noses.  Three NFL wunderkind coaches in 2019 are Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVey and Matt LaFleur.  All three of them have been on the Skins’ coaching staff under the watchful eyes of Danny Boy Snyder and Bruce Allen.  All three are elsewhere as head coaches; all three are probably happy to be anywhere but the head coach of the Skins.

Finally, since I mentioned the NBA’s attempts to be ever so politically correct above, consider this item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“The International Association of Athletics Federations is ditching the term ‘fastest loser’ — to describe track athletes who don’t win heat races but advance anyway — because the phrase devalues athletes’ achievements and will replace it with ‘fastest nonautomatic qualifier.’

“Hey, it was either that or … participation trophies for everybody!”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This is a particularly busy time on the calendar for US sports fans.  The NFL is in full swing; college football involves conference games not cupcake games; and MLB has our playoff series going on simultaneously.  There is always something happening somewhere that is interesting and important.

Regarding the MLB playoffs, the two series involving AL teams have the two favorites holding a 2-0 lead.  The Yankees have won their two games at home over the Twins in convincing fashion.  The Yankees’ offense has been most efficient scoring 18 runs on 19 hits in those two games.  The Astros handled the Rays in Game 1 behind Justin Verlander and then Gerrit Cole struck out 15 batters in 7 2/3 innings to give the Rays their 2-0 lead in that series.  To put that performance in perspective, consider:

• Cole struck out every Rays’ player in the starting lineup at least once.
• Of those 15 strikeouts, 14 had a swinging third strike.  He was just throwing the ball by everyone.
• This is the 10^th consecutive start where Cole has struck out 10 or more batters.
• Only Kevin Brown (with the Padres) and Bob Gibson (with the Cardinals) have ever struck out more batters in a playoff game.

Since MLB went to the 5-game playoff series format, 31 teams have taken a 2-0 lead and 28 of those teams went on to win the series.  A comeback by the Rays and/or the Twins can happen; it is not likely…

The two NL series have been more competitive.  In their first game, the Cards and Braves were tied 3-3 after 8 innings; then the fireworks began.  The Cards scored 4 runs in the top of the ninth, but the Braves kept the excitement level up by scoring 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth.  The Cards took a 1-0 lead in the series and took home field advantage from the Braves.  Notwithstanding that loss, the Braves have rallied to take the next two games to regain home field advantage.  Moreover, the way they won Game 3 in the series was a sort of cosmic payback.

• The Cards led 1-0 at the end of 8 innings; the Braves had only 4 hits in the game.
• The Braves rallied to score 3 runs in the top of the ninth against Cards’ closer, Carlos Martinez.
• The Braves scored 3 runs off Martinez in that ninth inning in Game 1 – – but that was one run too few.  Not in Game 3; the Braves closed it out to lead the series 2-1.

In the other NL series, the Dodgers coasted in Game 1 against the Nats.  In game 2, the Nats ties the series behind a strong pitching performance from Steven Strasburg with Max Scherzer making a relief appearance in the game.  The series moved back to Washington and there were echoes of a prior playoff disaster for the Nats.

• Anibal Sanchez gave up 1 run and 4 hits in 5 innings; Sanchez had also struck out 9 Dodgers; the Nats led the Dodgers 2-1.
• For some reason, that was the time to pull Sanchez and bring in Patrick Corbin for the 6^th inning.
• Corbin and Wander Suero proceeded to give up 7 runs in the 6^th inning and the game was out of hand from there on.

Years ago, the Nats lost a Series to the Cards when they had Gio Gonzales coasting through a game with a comfortable lead after 5 innings only to be pulled for what sounded like good reasons but in reality the reason he was pulled was drastic over-managing from the bench.  There is another way to look at the Nats’ pitching situation in this post-season.

• The Nats’ bullpen has been horrible all year long.  The bullpen ERA is north of 5.00.
• Now that the manager has taken two opportunities to “go to the bullpen” in potentially game-winning situations and brought in one of the three starting aces, what does that tell the relief pitchers sitting out there in the bullpen?  The ineffective relief pitchers may now be demoralized on top of being ineffective.
• And the benefit of that would be …?

The Nats will be able to start Scherzer in Game 4 and then Strasburg in Game 5.  That means they still have hope in the series – – but at some point, the over-managing must stop.

There is another big sports event out of the Washington area this morning.  The Skins fired coach Jay Gruden after starting the season at 0-5; Bill Callahan (former coach of the Raiders) will be the interim head coach.  There are plenty of reasons for the Skins to make a change:

• In more than 5 seasons with the Skins, Gruden’s record is 35-49-1.
• The Skins have been dispirited all season; they have lost their 5 starts by an average of 15.6 points per game.
• Attendance in Washington is cratering; Washington is a front-running town because – as a rule – the losers every 4 years or so they have to leave town.
• More importantly, Gruden has chosen not to play Danny Boy Snyder’s new QB toy, Dwayne Haskins.
• Most importantly, the Skins play the Dolphins this week and that gives the new interim coach a real shot at winning his first game to create the phantasm of the team going on a winning streak and “making a run at the playoffs”.

In a rational world, no accomplished NFL coach would take the job with the Skins’ dysfunctional organization.  However, there are only 32 such jobs in the world and when one comes open, it behooves anyone who is offered an interview to take the interview and to take it seriously.  In the statement from the Skins regarding the firing, they said that Gruden was being fired because the team had “not lived up to expectations”.  Well, I guess that should be counted as “literally correct” since no one expected the team to win zero games for the season; however, anyone who looked at the roster and thought that the team should be as good as 3-2 at this part of the season is squarely in one of two mental states:

1. He is looking at the world through burgundy-and-gold colored glasses
2. His brain is parked at the intersection of Delusion and Fantasy Streets.

Finally, Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week.  As of this morning, he is “halfway” to cashing in his ticket:

“The parlay: Wonder if Las Vegas will set odds on both Grudens — Jay and Jon — getting fired by the end of this season. There have been longer shots.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday returns to an actual Friday this week – – plus it falls on Highway Patrol Day.  Ten-four…

My real time football viewing last weekend was almost nil as we had houseguests from Thursday night to late on Sunday.  Fortunately, there is an ample menu of replays available.

Reviewing last week’s Six-Pack, the record was 5-1 – – the loss was the Thursday night game where I picked the Packers to win and cover against the Eagles.

So, the Six-Pack results to date are as follows:

• The Six-Pack overall is 14-4.
• For college games in the Six-Pack, the record is 7-0
• For NFL games in the Six Pack, the record is 7-4.

One of the Six-Pack selections from last week demonstrates that it is much better to be lucky than smart.  The pick was Maryland/Penn State UNDER 62.5.  My reasoning was that Penn State’s defense would hold Maryland in the teens or low-20s despite Maryland’s big offensive outbursts earlier this season.  And, I thought that Maryland would hold Penn State to less than 30 points.  The only part of that “analysis” that was correct is that Penn State won the game.  The final score was 59-0 which means my “analysis” was totally off target – – and yet I “cashed my ticket” figuratively speaking.

Fear not; I am not going to tout my Six-Pack record the way some of the screamers on TV like to do.  In fact, I want to foreshadow this week’s picks by saying I had difficulty assembling a Six-Pack.  None of the games this week jumped off the board at me.  I think I’ll need to be lucky to break even this week.

 

NCAA Football Comments:

 

I mistakenly told you last week that Linfield would be visiting Pacific University for a Northwest Conference game.  Actually, Linfield had a BYE week last week and will play Pacific University this week in Forest Grove, OR.  Go Wildcats!

Last weekend was only the final weekend in September and unless I counted wrong, there were only 3 winless teams left in Division 1-A football.  UMass and Akron entered the week winless and played each other with UMass prevailing.  Vandy finally won a game last week beating Northern Illinois.  That leaves Akron, New Mexico State and Rice as the only winless teams.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are still 18 undefeated teams as of this morning.  Auburn and Florida are unbeaten and play each other on Saturday – – so the number will drop to at least 17 by Monday.  In case you had not noticed, there are some undefeated teams out there who most folks would not consider to be among the “Usual Suspects” such as:

• Appalachian State
• Baylor
• Boise State
• Memphis
• Minnesota
• SMU
• Wake Forest

For those of you who are “of a certain age”, you may recall Harold Stassen as a political figure.  He was – seemingly – a perennial candidate for one office or another but there was an interesting period in his life when he tried to run for President of the US in 1952 and then ran for Governor of Pennsylvania in 1958 followed by a run for Mayor of Philadelphia in 1959.  None of those runs were successful.  Interestingly, they were in a chronological order that was opposite from the way a politician might seek elective offices; he seemed to be running the base paths backwards.

I mention this brief historical interlude because Charlie Strong is starting to resemble the “Harold Stassen of College Football”.  Strong was the coach at Texas for 3 years; after he was fired from that job, he was hired by USF where he is midway through his 3^rd season.  Going back to last year, USF has lost its last 9 games to Division 1-A opponents.  This year, the cumulative score for USF against other Division 1-A schools is a pathetic 111-31.  If he gets canned at the end of this season, he may be relegated to seeking a job at one of the perennial doormat schools in the country where he can hope to win 5 or 6 games in a season to resurrect his career.  Or he can be the “Harold Stassen of College Football”.

Charlie Strong is merely on a hot seat at USF.  Chris Ash has already been fired at Rutgers.  [Aside:  I know; this is more like him getting a pardon and not being forced to stand on the sidelines watching his team get its doors blown off.]  The firing is understandable to a degree; Ash’s record in Big 10 conference games was 3-26.  No one expected him to turn Rutgers into a serious contender in the Big 10 East but losing that many games – – and losing too many of them by huge margins – – was too much for the Rutgers’ administrators to take.  Shed no tears for Coach Ash; his buyout was reportedly $8.5M

Word is that Rutgers wants to hire Greg Schiano – who had that position for 10 years back at the beginning of this millennium.  That was before Rutgers was in the Big 10 East and had to face Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State every single season.  Back then, Rutgers was in the Big East where it had to contend with the likes of UConn, Temple, USF and Boston College.  Even with that “softer college scheduling” Schiano’s teams at Rutgers went 67-66.  Those were the “good old days” for Rutgers football – – unless you think back to 1869 when Rutgers beat Princeton 6-4 in the first college football game ever.

Schiano’s reputation has been tarnished by his presence on the Penn State staff during the time of the “Sandusky Scandal”.  Maybe he needs a head coaching job to jumpstart his career.  If that is the case, then good luck to him.  If that is not the case, this might not be a great job for anyone to take without a very fat paycheck and an ironclad buyout clause.

Speaking for a moment about coaches on hot seats and coaches being fired, it seemed that USC coach, Clay Helton, had cooled off his seat significantly 2 weeks ago when the Trojans beat Utah.  That “reprieve” seemed to come to an end last weekend when the Trojans lost to Washington.  USC has already fired its Athletic Director and the clamor to fire Clay Helton continues to build.  The interesting thing about this clamor is that it contains two parts:

• Part 1:  Fire Clay Helton.  He was a bad hire in the first place and is over his head coaching one of the blue-blood college football programs in the US.
• Part 2:  Hire Urban Meyer.  He is the coach that USC fans and alums deserve, and he is cooling his heels doing TV commentary.

The unspoken assumption here is that Urban Meyer would jump at the opportunity to take this job.  Maybe he would – – but I am not so sure.  Consider:

• Urban Meyer has been a very successful coach at Bowling Green (record of 17-6), Utah (record of 22-2), Florida (record of 63-14 plus two national championships) and Ohio State (record of 44-4 plus one national championship).
• Note that his career trajectory has been “upward” in terms of school prestige with regard to football.
• Urban Meyer is 55 years old and has had some health issues along the way.  If/when he takes another head coaching job, it could well be his final head coaching position – – so maybe he would want it to be the best possible way for him to close out his career/leave his legacy.
• Question:  In 2020, is USC a big enough/important enough football program to be the pinnacle of Urban Meyer’s football career?  I am not so sure…

What are the jobs that might be worthy of being the capstone on a career such as Urban Meyer’s?  There are two possibilities that come to my mind:

1. Notre Dame:  Urban Meyer once said this would be his “dream job” given his devout Roman Catholicism.  Brian Kelly is in his 10^th season at Notre Dame and Kelly is 57 years old.  He will not be there forever…
2. New England Patriots:  I don’t mean to imply that Urban Meyer would take just any NFL job; I think he would take the challenge of following the legend that will exist in New England once Bill Belichick hangs up his whistle.  Just as a reference, Belichick is 67 years old.

The game that put Clay Helton back on his hot seat saw Washington beat USC 28-14 in what had to be a smashmouth game.  Shades of Woody Hayes, Washington ran the ball 35 times for 193 yards while USC ran the ball 33 times for 212 yards.

Arizona beat UCLA 20-17 last week.  That game followed UCLA’s 50-point outburst in the second half two weeks ago.  Here, the Bruins could not get to 20 points against a team that had already lost to Hawaii earlier on.

Meanwhile, Washington State – the team that experienced UCLA’s 50-point outburst two weeks ago – returned to action last week and lost badly to Utah 38-13.  Basically, the Cougars exhibited some hangover symptoms against the Utes and Cougars’ coach, Mike Leach, referred to his own players as “fat, dumb, happy and entitled”.  I sense that all is not pleasant on the Palouse…

Wake Forest remained unbeaten for the 2019 season last week with a 27-24 win over Boston College.

Another ACC game saw Duke trample Va Tech by a score of 45-10.  This game was in Blacksburg no less!  Whatever happened to the Va Tech defense that put the fear of God into opponents?  It has not been on display so far in 2019.  The Hokies suffered a losing season last year; if that happens again this year, that would be the first time since 1991/92 for consecutive losing seasons in Blacksburg.  Once again if that happens, I will not be surprised to see Va Tech involved in the college football coaching carousel come December.

In a game involving an ACC team that ACC fans would prefer to ignore, Temple beat Georgia Tech 24-2.  The only interesting aspect of this game is that the current coach at Georgia Tech was the coach at Temple until this year.  This was not a happy homecoming for Geoff Collins…

I mentioned the Penn State/Maryland game above regarding the Six-Pack last week.  Some people refer to this “rivalry” as a “border war” because indeed Maryland and Pennsylvania share a border known as the Mason Dixon Line.  However, I doubt that anyone in State College, PA looks at Maryland as an archrival.  The teams have met 43 times; consider these stats:

• Penn State “leads the series” 40-2-1.
• The two wins for Maryland came in 1961 (Joe Paterno was an Assistant Coach at Penn State then) and 1992.

Maryland has now lost 2 games in a row after winning its opening 2 games by a combined score of 142-20.  If you assume that Maryland might be looking ahead to the Penn State game, that might explain its loss 2 weeks ago to Temple.  However, if indeed they were pointing to the Penn State game, it does not say anything positive about the team.  In addition to losing 59-0, the Terps; total offense for the game was 128 yards.

In other Big 10 action, Ohio State beat Nebraska 48-7.  This was total domination; the score at halftime was 38-0 leading the Buckeyes to “stroll along” in the second half.  The Huskers entered the game with a 3-1 record with the loss being an OT game against Colorado.  Notwithstanding that fact, they were totally outclassed in every phase of the game on national TV in prime time.

Michigan State beat Indiana 40-31.  Let’s just say that the end of this game was out of the ordinary:

• The game was tied 31-31 with 8 seconds on the clock.
• Michigan State kicked a field goal to take the lead 34-31.
• On the final play of the game, Michigan State got a “scoop and score” off a fumble to add 6 more points to the total.
• Nine points scored in the final 8 seconds of the game…

Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 26-13.  K-State had edged its way into the Top 25 entering this game and then proceeded to lay an egg here.  The Wildcats only recorded 8 first downs in the game.  The Cowboys outgained the Wildcats 520 yards to 244 yards.

At the end of last season, Kentucky was solidly and properly ranked in the Top 25.  In my college football preview, I said that they might struggle this year to replicate that stature in 2019.  So how have things gone?

• Kentucky won its first two games convincingly against soft opponents – Toledo and E. Michigan.  Combined score was 76-41
• Kentucky has lost its last three games against SEC opponents – Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina.  Combined score was 81-41.
• Kentucky has a BYE Week this week and Arkansas at home for Homecoming next on the schedule.  Arkansas is the doormat of the SEC; the Wildcats need a win in that game.

 

College Football Games This Week:

 

(Fri Nite) UCF – 3.5 at Cincy (60.5):  The only time UCF scored fewer than 40 points in a game this year, they lost that game to Pitt.  They rebounded from that loss to smash UConn last week 56-21.  Other than a shutout loss to Ohio State, Cincy has won its other three games averaging 111 points in those 3 wins.  This should be a fun game to watch.

USF – 11 at UConn (49):  I mentioned above that Charlie Strong may be on a hot seat at USF given the Bulls’ lack of success against Division 1-A teams recently.  Well, Randy Edsall’s seat at UConn also has to be hot to some degree; it is ameliorated by the fact that UConn will be dropping out of the AAC at the end of this season and it might be difficult to hire a replacement coach given all the uncertainty up there.  To demonstrate the dilemma for the UConn administrators, Edsall’s record at UConn in this second stint there is 5-23.

Texas – 10.5 at W. Virginia (61.5):  This could well be an important Big 12 game as things sort out later in the season.  Meanwhile, Texas has its Red River Showdown with Oklahoma in Dallas next week.  This could be a trap game for the Longhorns…

Purdue at Penn State – 29 (56):  Purdue lost its starting QB and its best WR on the same play last week.  The spread here opened at 24 points and risen steadily throughout the week.  This smells like a blowout game to me.

Baylor at K-State – 2 (49):  Baylor is undefeated so far this year and they are a road underdog here…

Maryland – 12 at Rutgers (57):  Both teams were shut out last week; Michigan beat Rutgers 52-0 while Penn State beat Maryland 59-0.  Rutgers just fired the coach (see above).  Call this the Pity Party Game of the Week?

Va Tech at Miami (FL) – 14 (46):  Call this one The Disappointment Bowl.  Both teams are 2-2 and both have underperformed expectations for the season.

Oregon St. at UCLA – 6 (65.5):  If the Bruins lose this one to the Beavers, the natives will be getting restless in Westwood, CA…

Cal at Oregon – 18 (46):  This is an important PAC-12 game.  Since losing to Auburn on the road in the season opener, the Oregon defense has not allowed a TD in the last 3 games.  [They did allow 5 field goals in those 3 games.]  Meanwhile, Cal comes to the game with a 4-1 record and they have only given up 20 points in a game one time this year.  I know that Oregon enjoys a significant home field advantage, but that line looks awfully fat to me given that both teams feature solid defenses.  I’ll put Cal plus the points in the Six-Pack for this week.

Iowa at Michigan – 3.5 (48):  Iowa is undefeated – against an undistinguished set of opponents.  Michigan and Jim Harbaugh very specifically cannot afford to lose a home game this early in the season with the likes of Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State all coming to Ann Arbor later in this year.

Illinois at Minnesota – 14 (57):  Minnesota is undefeated in 4 games this season but the total margin of victory in those 4 games is 20 points.  Illinois is hardly a fearsome opponent – but that label could be applied to Minnesota’s four victims to this point in the season.  The only team the Gophers’ defense could hold under 30 points was Division 1-AA South Dakota State.  I am not a Lovie Smith acolyte, but that line is FAT at the Sally Struthers level of FAT.  I’ll put Illinois plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack.

Georgia – 24 at Tennessee (51.5):  Just what Jeremy Pruitt needs; another home blowout with him standing on the sidelines with no answers to any of the questions.  The calls to replace Pruitt are becoming more audible to the point that Athletic Director, Phil Fulmer, thought it was necessary to say that he would not be returning to the sidelines as an interim coach.

• Memo to Jeremy Pruitt:  Rent; don’t buy.  And don’t buy any green bananas either…

Air Force – 3.5 at Navy (45):  Games between any two of the service academies are always fun to watch.  You will not see a single player “dogging it” even once during the game.

Auburn – 2.5 at Florida (48.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  Both teams are undefeated; both teams have shown they can play solid defense.  A win for Florida will set up the Florida/Georgia game as the road to the SEC Championship Game from the SEC East.

Michigan State at Ohio State – 20 (49):  Sparty is 3-1 and the Buckeyes are 4-0 so far this year.  That could cause one to look at the spread and do a double take – – but the eyeball test says that Ohio State is indeed the better squad.

Utah State at LSU – 28 (73.5):  This spread opened at 24 points and has been climbing all week long.  In no way do I think Utah State is going to win the game, but that is a ton of points even accounting for the huge home field advantage that LSU enjoys in Baton Rouge.  To give you an idea of how the oddsmakers view Utah State as a possible winner of the game, you can find the Money Line odds as high as +2150 as of this morning.

 

NFL Comments:

 

So much for home field advantage in the NFL…  Last week visiting teams won 11 of the 15 games on the schedule outright.  The Browns, Bucs and Raiders were all road winners despite going off as underdogs of at least a TD at game time.  The four losing road teams were:

1. Bengals (0-4)
2. Cowboys
3. Skins (0-4)
4. Vikes

Please note that two of those four teams have not won a game all season long – – at home or on the road or on the moon…

Someone had the temerity to ask Bill Belichick what role football analytics plays in his thinking as he constructs a game plan for the upcoming opponent.  Belichick is famous for his terse responses to press queries and his answer here was brilliant in that there was not room for a follow-up question:

“Less than zero.”

Give Coach Belichick an A+ here for simplicity and candor…

The Niners had last week off with the earliest possible BYE Week on the NFL schedule.  Nonetheless, the Niners enter this weekend’s games as the only undefeated team in the NFC as both the Cowboys and the Rams lost last week.

In horseracing handicapping parlance, there are front-runners and there are stretch runners.  Well, it appears as if every team in the AFC South falls into the same category here; all four teams have records of 2-2 with the first quarter of the season in the record books.  Moreover, two of the teams there – – Jags and Texans – – have a point differential of ZERO after the first 4 games of the season.

The Pats beat the Bills 16-10 to stay unbeaten for the year.  However, the Bills’ defense demonstrated in defeat that it is for real in 2019.  Consider these stats as you also consider the Bills’ defense:

• The Pats averaged a meager 3.6 yards per offensive play and one offensive TD.
• Another Pats’ TD came from a blocked punt that was “scooped for a score”.
• Tom Brady completed less than 50% of his pass attempts (18 for 39 for 150 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT).
• Pats gained only 74 yards rushing and had total offense of 224 yards

Four INTs thrown by Bills’ QBs doomed the team last week.  Josh Allen was knocked out of the game and replaced by Matt Barkley.  In this game, Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards and became only the fourth RB in NFL history to gain more than 15,000 yards in a career.

The three running backs just behind Frank Gore on the all-time rushing list are all in the Hall of Fame:

• Curtis Martin
• LaDanian Tomlinson
• Jerome Bettis

The three running backs ahead of Gore on the all-time rushing list are also all in the Hall of Fame – – and it is not inconceivable that Gore will jump into third place on this list sometime this season.  He needs to gain another 248 yards to do so.  Those 3 rushing leaders are:

• Emmitt Smith 18,355 yards
• Walter Payton 16,726 yards
• Barry Sanders 15,269 yards.

The Bucs beat the Rams 55-40 last week.  I said in Football Friday last week that if the Giants could go “north of 30 points against the Bucs”, I did not see why the Rams could not go north of 40 points.  The problem here is that the Rams defense was a no-show and the Rams’ offense kept giving the ball away.  Frankly, I am surprised that the Bucs could score 55 points on anybody – let alone the NFC representative in last year’s Super Bowl game.  Jared Goff threw the ball 68 times last week amassing 517 yards in the process.  That speaks to the desperation play calling the Rams fell into as they fell behind by 3 TDs early on.  Meanwhile, Jameis Winston threw for 385 yards and 4 TDs in the game.

The NFL record for sacks in a season is 22.5 sacks held by Michael Strahan in 2001.  Three players have recorded 22 sacks in a season between 1984 and the present.  Bucs’ defender Shaq Barrett is on pace to shatter that sacks record for a season.

• Barrett has 9 sacks in 4 games
• That projects to 36 sacks for a full 16-game regular season.
• Yowza!

The Eagles beat the Packers 34-27 in the Thursday Night game last week.  The stats for this game do not lead you to deduce the winner.

• Aaron Rodgers was 34 for 53 for 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
• Davante Adams caught 10 passes for 180 yards

The Packers had no meaningful running game.  Rodgers was the team rushing leader on his scrambles; the other running backs carried the ball 15 times for a total of 31 yards.  Conversely, the Eagles ran the ball effectively – – 33 carries for 176 yards.

The Giants beat the Skins 24-3.  The natural storyline here was that Dwayne Haskins entered the game late in the first half and faced Daniel Jones who was making his second career start.  Recall that Haskins was dismissive of the Giants taking Jones ahead of him back on draft day and he declared that teams that passed on him had “messed up”.  One half of one football game in their first NFL season does not say anything definitive about these two QBs but in this first encounter, you would have to say that Jones was the superior player:

• Jones was 23 for 31 for 225 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs
• Haskins was 9 for 17 for 107 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs
• Jones ran 5 times for 33 yards
• Haskins ran 2 times for 23 yards

A less obvious story line for this game is contained in the rushing stats for the Skins.  They ran the ball 17 times and gained 55 yards.  If you look at those numbers and say to yourself that they are not very good, consider the following:

• For the season, the Skins rushing stats are pretty much what you see here; they do this every week.
• For the 4 games in 2019 – – all losses for the Skins – – they average running the ball 17 times and they average 49.75 yards per game.
• Adrian Peterson is the team’s leading rusher with 90 yards (2.7 yards per carry).

People say the way to win in the NFL is to run the ball effectively and to stop the opponent from running the ball effectively.  If that mantra is correct, the Skins miss out on both ends.  We see that they run the ball poorly; here is how they stop the run:

• Opponents average 147.5 yards per game on the ground (4.7 yards per carry)
• Opponents achieve 7.25 first downs per game against the Skins’ defense.

The Raiders beat the Colts 31-24 last week.  The Raiders’ defense held RB, Marlon Mack, to 39 yards on 11 carries.

The Titans beat the Falcons 24-10 last week.  Matt Ryan threw for 397 yards in the game and that produced only 10 points on the scoreboard.

The Bears beat the Vikes 16-6 last week.  The Bears’ defense was in control of this game from the start.  Dalvin Cook had gained 125 yards per game until last week; the Bears held him to 35 yards on 14 carries.  That put the Vikes’ hopes for victory squarely in the hands of Kirk Cousins and that simply did not work.  If the Vikes’ run game was squashed, the passing game was merely mediocre.  Mitchell Trubisky had to leave the game in the first quarter with a shoulder injury; he is not going to play this week.  Chase Daniel came in and did what backup QBs are supposed to do; he ran the offense competently if not spectacularly.  It was good enough to win the game which is what it is all about.  Right?

Meanwhile, the Vikes have to realize by now that Kirk Cousins is not the guy to get them wins over opponents that are very good.  He can – and usually will – beat the teams the Vikes are supposed to beat; but the Vikes are on the hook to pay him about $28M this year and about the same amount next year.  That does not seem to be a lot of bang for the buck.

The Panthers beat the Texans 16-10 last week.  Deshaun Watson only threw for 160 yards in the game; Kyle Allen threw for 232 yards notching his second win in as many starts for his career.

The Chargers beat the Dolphins 30-10; the Dolphins were shut out in the second half indicating to me that they made the proper adjustments at halftime to assure losing the game.  Chargers’ DL Melvin Ingram injured his hamstring in this game and may be out for a while.

The Chiefs beat the Lions 34-30 last week.  Maybe the Lions are not as bad as the Lions traditionally are?  The Chiefs won the game without Patrick Mahomes throwing a TD pass – – and still they scored 34 points.

The Browns beat the Ravens 40-25 last week.  Lamar Jackson threw 3 TDs and 2 INTs in the game.  The Browns ran the ball very effectively here; Nick Chubb ran for 165 yards and 3 TDs including an 88-yard carry on a simple off-tackle run.

The Jags beat the Broncos 26-24 last week.  Joe Flacco threw for 303 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT but the Broncos lost DL, Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.  The Jags’ Leonard Fournette ran for 225 yards in this game.

The Steelers beat the Bengals like a drum last week.  It was a battle of winless teams and the Bengals looked much the worse squad; they made the Steelers look like a 3-0 team and not an 0-3 team.  The Bengals’ OL gave up 8 sacks in the game.  Mason Rudolph played well – nothing spectacular but efficient and effective.  Going into this game, the Steelers’ defense had been allowing 444 yards per game; they held the Bengals to 244 yards total offense.

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 27-10.  It surely does not seem as if the Cared’ new “Air Raid Offense” is fooling a lot of defensive coordinators and defenders…

The Saints beat the Cowboys 12-10 and the key was that the Saints’ defense held Ezekiel Elliott to 35 yards on 18 carries.  Another interesting stat from the game:

• Teddy Bridgewater targeted WR Michael Thomas 9 times in the game.
• The result of those 9 targets was 9 completions for 95 yards.

One comment about last night’s Seahawks win over the Rams on Thursday Night Football:

• If you went to the paint store and found a paint chip to match the color of the Seahawks’ Thursday night uniforms, would the color be called “Baby Vomit Green”?

 

NFL Games this week:

 

These teams will have their BYE Week this weekend:

• Lions can take something positive from their loss to the Chiefs last week as they prepare for a visit to Green Bay next week.
• Dolphins get a free week to figure out new and creative ways to lose future games.  I wonder how many survival pool picks have involved whatever team is playing the Dolphins?

Baltimore – 3.5 at Pittsburgh (44):  The Ravens defense unraveled last week while the Steelers’ defense finally decided to show itself last week.  What happens now?  The Steelers are not the same offensive team without Leveon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger – – but they are not awful without them; their replacements may never make it to the HoF, but they are competent.  A win for the Steelers here puts them right back in the middle of the AFC North race.  I’ll put the Steelers plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack.

(London Game) Chicago – 5 vs. Oakland (40): This spread opened at 7 points and dropped almost immediately to this level where it stayed all week.  Kahlil Mack gets to go against the team that traded him away; that might be a scary proposition.  Chase Daniel was adequate as the backup QB last week – – but the reason the Bears beat the Vikes was the Bears’ defense.  Games in London are sort of “Body Clock Games” for both teams – but in this case Chicago is two time zones closer to London than is Oakland.  I’ll put the Bears to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

• [Aside:  I saw a note saying that this is the 25^th NFL game played in London and that there has never been a game there where both teams had winning records.  Amazing.  One bias toward that end is that the NFL puts teams in London games that have difficulty filling their home stadiums and those teams tend to be bad ones.]

Arizona at Cincy – 3 (46.5):  I will not listen to any argument to the contrary; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Do you think there is anyone sufficiently brain addled to bet this game on the Money Line?  I went looking for a trend that might point to one side or the other and even the trends are confusing:

• Cards are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 road games
• Bengals are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games overall

Here is a result that will only be wished for in Curmudgeon Central:

• Dolphins go 0-16 for the season and the Cards go 0-15-1.
• Cards are winless and only get the SECOND pick in next year’s draft.

Jax at Carolina – 3.5 (41):  This game pits Gardner Minshew (sixth round pick) against Kyle Allen (undrafted free agent) as the QBs.  The Panthers’ defense has come alive the last couple of weeks – particularly the pass rush.  So, is this a confrontation between Kyle Allen and Gardner Minshew or between Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette or between the two defensive units?  Maybe all of the above…

Minnesota – 5 at Giants (43.5):  Kirk Cousins has never played well in The Meadowlands.  He played with great mediocrity last week against the Bears.  This week’s defense will not challenge him nearly as much as the Bears did last week.  Daniel Jones is 2-0 at the helm for the Giants – – but the Vikes defense is a big step up from the Skins’ defense last week and/or the Bucs’ defense the week before that.  The Vikes have the better defense by far and that is the story of the game.  I’ll put the Vikes to win and cover in this week’s Six-Pack.

New England – 15 at Washington (43.5):  This spread opened at 13 points and has risen slowly during the week.  There is one Internet sports book this morning that has a 16-point spread posted.  The Pats lead the league in total defense; they lead the league in interceptions; they are tied for the lead in sacks.  The Skins’ offense aspires to mediocrity.  The Pats defense has given up 1 TD in 4 games.  Meanwhile, the Pats have 1 TD from special teams in those 4 games plus 2 TDs from the defensive unit.  Here are some questions for this game:

• Who will be the Skins’ QB in this game?
• What happened to the Pats run game with Sony Michel?
• Will Benjamin Watson be ready to play his normal game coming off his 4-game suspension?
• Will Belichick run it up or take mercy on Jay Gruden?

Jets at Philly – 13.5 (43.5):  Is Sam Darnold able to play?  If not, the Jets’ offense might have significant difficulty scoring points even against an injury-depleted Eagles’ defense.  There are conflicting trends at work for this game:

• Jets are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games on grass
• Eagles are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 home games

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – 3 (47):  This spread opened at 6.5 points and sagged to this number almost immediately.  The Bucs lead the NFL in rushing defense; meanwhile, the Saints need to lean on Alvin Kamara more than usual with Drew Brees sidelined for about another month.  The Saints are 2-0 with Teddy Bridgewater subbing in for Drew Brees and the two wins came at the expense of the Cowboys and the Seahawks.  This is a big division game; can Teddy Bridgewater sustain his mojo?  I like this game to stay UNDER as one item in this week’s Six-Pack.

Atlanta at Houston – 5 (49):  Both teams lost at home last week; both teams looked bad in doing so.  The Texans are still not protecting Deshaun Watson and the Falcons are a different team from week to week.  It sure looks to me as if the Texans’ defense misses Jadeveon Clowney.    The Falcons are 1-3; this is a big game for them.  Both coaches are on a hot seat; it would not be good for either one to be on the short end of a blowout game.  Here are two strange betting stats for you to ponder:

• Texans are 1-13 against the spread in the last 14 games in Week 5 of a season
• Falcons are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games in October

Buffalo at Tennessee – 3 (38.5):  You have to go looking to find lines on this game because the Bills’ QB is unknown at the moment.  The Bills’ defense showed itself to be top-shelf against the Pats last week.  Now the Bills’ offense needs to pick up the pace a bit despite the possibility that Matt Barkley might be under center this week.  Once again, which version of the Titans will show up here – – the one that beat the Falcons handily and humiliated the Browns or the one that lost to the Jags and the Colts?

Denver at Chargers – 6.5 (44.5):  The Chargers are 2-2 with defensive injuries – – but RB, Melvin Gordon is back in the fold.  The Broncos are 0-4.  Even with Vic Fangio in charge out in Denver, the defense there has been pretty much a disappointment.  Guess it was the players he had in Chicago that made that defense so fearsome…

Green Bay at Dallas – 3.5 (46.5):  I shall anoint this as the Game of the Week.  The Cowboys are 3-1 but the wins were over the Skins (0-4) and the Dolphins (0-4) and the “Eli Manning Giants” (0-2).  Last week against a much better Saints’ team, the Cowboys scored all of 10 points.  The Packers have beaten the Bears (by one TD) and the Vikes (by 5 points) and the Broncos (0-4) and the Packers lost at home to the Eagles.  Let’s just say there are plenty of question marks surrounding both teams.  Last week, Packers’ offense was alive and well – – but the Packers lost.  Last week, the Cowboys’ offense was shut down – – and the Cowboys lost.  This is a big game; the Packers’ defense took last week off and the Cowboys’ offense took last week off.  Which unit returns to form this week?

(Sun Nite) Indy at KC – 11 (56):  The spread here opened at 9 points and has risen to this level over the course of the week.  The Chiefs won last week without Patrick Mahomes throwing a TD pass.  Was that just a weird occurrence or is there some other dimension to the Chiefs’ scoring capabilities?  The Colts lost at home last week to the Raiders giving up 31 points.  That is not a good omen for going on the road to play the Chiefs this weekend.  The Chiefs looked mortal last week on the road – – but they won.  Now they are back at home…

(Mon Nite) Cleveland at SF – 4 (46):  Finally, we – and ESPN – get a good MNF game.  The Niners coming off a BYE week; the Browns are playing their second consecutive road game.   Baker Mayfield should test the Niners’ secondary here.  The Browns offense looked good against the Ravens; if they play that way for the balance of the season they will be in the playoffs.  Now they need to show they can do that…

Let me review this week’s Six-Pack:

1. Cal +18 points against Oregon
2. Illinois + 14 points against Minnesota
3. Steelers +3.5 against Ravens
4. Bears – 5 over Raiders
5. Vikes – 5 over Giants
6. Bucs/Saints UNDER 47 points

Finally, I mentioned Frank Gore’s achievement of eclipsing 15,000 yards rushing in his NFL career.  Here is what Bob Molinaro had to say about Gore in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

Relentless: There have been more talented and exciting players at his position than Buffalo’s 36-year-old Frank Gore — who Sunday became the fourth back in NFL history to gain 15,000 yards on the ground — but none has run harder or longer after overcoming reconstructive surgery on both knees and shoulders. Gore is a gamer.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Now the MLB playoffs begin in earnest.  I have a love-hate relationship with the MLB playoff system up to this point in the season.

• Part of me loves the second wildcard slot in each league.  That innovation produces a lot more September regular season games that are meaningful.
• Part of me hates the idea of a single game elimination for the wildcard teams.

If it takes a six-month baseball season and about 159 regular season games to determine which teams belong in the playoffs, that is testimony to the fact that baseball is a game of ebb and flow.  After all the ups and downs of a season, it is incongruous to me to have a single game elimination concept in MLB.  At the same time, I completely appreciate the scheduling problems that would fall upon the World Series if my preferred 5-game/7-game series at every level of the playoffs were to occur.  We might wind up pushing the World Series back to Thanksgiving Week.

I can think of a couple of ways to try to accommodate my desires here; this is my preferred option.

• MLB should go back to the idea of Sunday doubleheaders played mostly in the afternoon.  If they scheduled these events properly, that would allow for 20 such events for each team every season and that would shorten the regular season on the calendar so that the wild card playoffs could begin around 10 September.
• Allowing 6 days for the 5-game wild card series starts the first elimination round in each league about 18 September.
• Allowing 10 days for the first elimination round in each league to be a 7-game series would start the league finals on 28 September.
• Ten days later – after another 7-game series to crown the champions in both leagues – the World Series could begin around 9 October and be finished well before Halloween.
•             Let me channel Captain Jean-Luc Picard of the Starship Enterprise here as I address the leaders of MLB and MLBPA:

“Make it so.”

For the playoffs this year, I find the two NL pairings to be more interesting than the two AL pairings; the Braves/Cardinals match-up should be the most entertaining series of the four. I like the Dodgers to represent the National League this year and I like the Astros to be the AL champ.

As the NFL season enters its “second quarter”, lots of folks have focused on the fact that there are only 3 undefeated teams left – and few if any of those folks really think that the Niners at 3-0 are indeed in the elite class of NFL teams.  All the focus is on the two undefeated AFC teams – the Pats and the Chiefs.  As usual, the focus here in Curmudgeon Central is different.  When I look at the NFL standings, I see 6 teams that have not won a game yet.  So, from this vantage point, how bad are these teams?

• Bengals:  The team probably kept Marvin Lewis around a couple of years longer past his “Sell By Date”.  When they went shopping for a new coach last Spring, they found that the job in Cincy was not one where agents were clamoring for interviews.  They reached for a new face on the sidelines and the transition is not going well so far.  In their loss to the Steelers on MNF, the Bengals looked unenergetic and unenthusiastic.  The good news here is that the Bengals have an experienced QB and will be getting AJ Green back on the field one of these weeks.
• Broncos:  Hiring Vic Fangio to be the head coach was supposed to make the strongest part of the team – the defense – into a dominant gridiron force.  Let’s just say that has not come even close to happening.  Getting Joe Flacco to platy QB is an upgrade over recent seasons with the likes of Brock Osweiler and Trevor Simien, but Joe Flacco is not going to carry the team by himself.  If and when the defense springs to life, the Broncos can win a few games, but if they remain somnambulant, the wins in Denver will be few and far between.
• Cardinals:  The Cards were 3-13 last year.  They ditched their rookie QB along with a rookie coach and drafted a new rookie QB and hired a new rookie coach.  For the moment, the Cards stand at the head of this listing because they have a tie game on their record instead of nothing but losses.  As my grandfather was wont to say:

“Thank the Lord for small favors.”

The Cards defense was not good last year and is not much better so far this year.

• Dolphins:  Frankly, I don’t think the team is really trying to win games this year.  They have amassed a war chest of draft picks for players they have traded away, and the renaissance of the franchise depends very much on the team’s ability to hit the mark with all of its draft picks.  This team stinks.  Through 4 games, the Dolphins have been outscored by 137 points or 34.25 points per game.  It would be bad enough if the defense were giving up that many points per game but that is the point differential not the total points allowed per game!
• Jets:  I believe this is the best team on this list and that the Jets are here because they have lost their top 2 QBs – one to injury and one to mononucleosis.  The jury is still out on the question of the fundamental competency of their new coach, but this team ought to win more than a handful of games this year.
• Skins:  While the Dolphins are not trying to win – and it shows – the Skins are polar opposites.  They want to win and are trying but they don’t win because the roster is poorly constructed, and the organization is wrought with strife.  They cut a safety last year for saying that the defensive play-calling was inept; he was correct.  They continued the team tradition of bidding against itself to sign Landon Collins to a deal that will pay him about $14M per season.  That deal is right in line with the one that signed Josh Norman at $15M per season and Albert Haynesworth about a decade ago.  If press reports are even half accurate, last year’s draft represented the third time in his tenure as team owner that Danny Boy Snyder “intervened” to influence the drafting of a QB.  The previous two apples of his eye were Patrick Ramsey and RG3.  Let’s just say that history is not on the side of the Skins here.  The debut of Dwayne Haskins last week was not a good one; it evoked memories of Akili Smith.  [Google is your friend…]

Oh, by the way, the Skins and Dolphins will play each other next week.  The loser of that game should be relegated to the XFL.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation in the Seattle Times a couple of weeks ago:

“A pride of lions ate three poachers who broke into a South African game reserve to hunt rhinoceroses, Newsweek reported.

“This partial score just in: Lions 3, Raiders 0.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

Recall that after the Patriots released Antonio Brown, the beleaguered WR announced his retirement from football – – that decision since rescinded – – and also announced his return to Central Michigan as an undergraduate student seeking his degree.  Earlier this week, Brown had to write a paper for an English class, and he sought online help with editing/proofreading via his Twitter account.  Here is the Tweet that asked for assistance:

“My English paper do by tonight 12am need a prof reader make sure As and Bs #Eng303”

As you might expect, this request drew more than a few snarky comments.  I am the last person on the planet to pretend to be an editor/proofreader; so, I will not parse the Tweet itself here.  Even recognizing that the Twitter medium allows for a more relaxed approach to spelling, grammar and syntax, I would like to make an observation here:

• Where I went to college, “English 303” would have been a class that required a passing grade in “English 101” as a prerequisite.
• No matter how many times I read that Tweet and try to imagine how it might have been constructed in “Twitteresque”, I cannot conjure up a clear vision of the concept of a “passing grade in English 101”.

Sigh…

The Chicago Cubs fired manager Joe Maddon.  Unquestionably, the Cubs underperformed expectations this season particularly in the final two weeks of the season when the Cubs went from serious contenders for a playoff slot to a team that could not get out of its own way.  Joe Maddon paid the price for that season and for that tumble down the ski slope in September.  All I can say is that Joe Maddon got awfully dumb awfully quickly:

• Prior to his stint with the Cubs, Joe Maddon managed the Tampa Bay Rays for 8 seasons and made the playoffs 3 times and the World Series once.  That is not bad for a low-budget team playing in the same division with the Yankees and the Red Sox.
• Maddon took over the Cubs in 2015.  In his first four seasons there, the Cubs made the playoffs four times and the Cubs won the World Series in 2016- –  for the first time since 1908.
• Then came the very disappointing 2019 season…

Whatever genius Joe Maddon flashed from 2015 through 2018 mysteriously disappeared into the world ether in 2019.  Obviously, it is time for the Cubs to go looking for the next genius to put on the bench.  Joe Maddon’s teams in Chicago accumulated a 5-season record of 471-340 which is a winning percentage of .581.  To put that in perspective, there are 25 managers in the Baseball Hall of Fame whose career records are below .581.

Here is the way the Chicago Sun Times explained the Cubs’ decision to part ways with Joe Maddon.

Westfield, WI is a small town about 75 miles north of Madison WI.  There were 1,254 residents there according to the census taken in 2010.  Westfield High School just had to cancel the rest of its football season “due to injuries”.  Actually, it was a situation created by the occurrence of injuries on top of the fact that there were hardly enough players in the school to field a team.

The Westfield Pioneers started the season with 19 players on the team.  A rash of injuries – – mostly concussions according to the school – – reduced the available players to 13.  The Athletic Director at the high school said that they “did not have a plan for such an eventuality” when the season began and in the current circumstances, the season would have to be canceled in favor of player safety from here forward.

Wisconsin high school football is undergoing restructuring at the state level and one possible future for Westfield HS would be to “drop down” and play 8-man football in lieu of standard 11-man football.  School officials say they have not made any decisions along that line but are considering all options.

There is a bit of math to consider here:

• The incoming freshman class at Westfield HS next year will be approximately 50 students.
• Probably 25 of them will be girls and it is not likely that any of those girls will opt to play varsity football.
• If you assume that 10% of the boys in a high school class are interested in football enough to try out for the team and make it through practices, Westfield HS can only expect 3 new players for the team starting next season.
• I could not find the number of seniors who were on that 19-man roster at the start of the season.  Those players will disappear before next season begins.  Ergo, it would appear to me that Westfield HS will have a varsity roster no bigger than 20 at the start of next season.
• 8-man football seems pretty enticing to me…

Finally, here is a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Car Alarm:  An antitheft device that only goes off when no one is trying to steal your car.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Think about watching football on TV for a moment.  A couple of times a game, the offense will come to the line and set; the QB will start making calls and barking signals; the defense digs in.  And then one player jumps the gun and flags fly from about four different directions.  The error of the moment jumps out from the TV screen in such a way that only Stevie Wonder could miss it.  With that imagery in your mind, consider a situation I encountered with my long-suffering wife and our houseguests from last weekend.

• It was the evening of September 29; we were driving home from dinner at a local restaurant.  We passed by a house with Christmas lights adorning a tree in the front yard with a creche under that tree.

Just as in football, that situation cried out as one that has jumped the gun.  In football, there would be a 5-yard penalty assessed.  I have no idea how the house decorators in this case should be penalized.

A couple of years ago, the NFL went through a period where TV viewership declined.  Lots of folks who like to see grand significance in things that may not have any content worthy of grand significance started to connect a few dots and then interpreted the graphic created there to mean that professional football had reached the pinnacle of its popularity in the US.  Some of the points made by people who drew conclusions of that sort fit a narrative that included:

• Medical science had shown the relationship between repeated head trauma and CTE sufficiently vividly to turn off a portion of football’s fandom and that turned off fraction would only continue to grow.  [Indeed, the most aggressive interpretation along this line was that there would come a time when there would not be sufficient numbers of men willing to risk their brain health by playing football to fill out the rosters of whatever was left of the NFL.]
• The social justice warriors proclaimed that Colin Kaepernick’s protest and his subsequent banishment from the NFL had put the NFL on the wrong side of history regarding police brutality.
• The game itself had worn out its welcome as advertisements and replay incidents interrupted the flow of the game to the point that millennials did not want to take the time to follow it.

There were other such interpretations; all of them sounded interesting; and obviously, all of them would need more data to confirm the picture painted by the interpreter.  Fast forward to September 2019; the first quarter of the NFL regular season is “in the books” and the data from this year run counter to the gloom-and-doom scenarios painted by folks about 3 years ago.  I have not yet heard any interpretation(s) for the current data; so, lest they be ignored, I will put some of it here.

The NFL’s TV ratings are up.  For the first quarter of the regular season, here is how those ratings compare to last year – a year where ratings were up about 5% as compared to 2017:

• Thursday Night Football on FOX  +18%
• Monday Night Football ESPN  +6%
• Sunday Night Football NBC  +5%
• FOX Sundays  +4%
• CBS Sundays  +3%

And there is more:

• Since the NFL regular season began on September 5^th, of the 20 most-viewed television programs 19 of those were NFL regular season games.  The only other program to make the Top 20 Most-Viewed List was one of the Democratic Presidential Candidates Debates.
• During the 2018 regular season, 46 of the Top 50 most-watched television programs were NFL games.  And viewership is up this year over last year so far…
• Notwithstanding the obvious trend of “cord cutting”, more people watch more NFL football now than they ever did and the numbers seem to be increasing and not decreasing.

I have asserted before that the NFL and the NFLPA are not adversaries and ought not to view each other as such.  They are, in fact, partners in the production of the most popular and the most lucrative television entertainment property in history.  Those two entities are in negotiations to come up with a new CBA prior to the time when the current TV deals expire.  [Aside: The Monday Night Football deal expires at the end of the 2021 season; the other network deals expire at the end of the 2022 season.]  Obviously, there will be contentious issues to be resolved in the negotiations leading to a new CBA, but both sides need to recognize that the most important thing for them to do is to agree on how to divide a revenue stream that is approximately $15B today and which is likely to grow from that number starting with the next set of TV deals.

Finally, since I spent some time today talking about television programing, let me close with a comment about television by David Frost:

“Television is an invention that permits you to be entertained in your living room by people you wouldn’t have in your home.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Ever since Mark Davis handed control of the Raiders’ roster to Jon Gruden, it is fair to say that Gruden made a few moves that caused a raised eyebrow or two.

• He traded Kahlil Mack to the Bears.
• He traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys.
• He signed Antonio Brown and inherited the totality of the soap opera Brown brings with him.
• He signed Richie Incognito who is no stranger to controversy – but who has been a solid citizen so far for the Raiders.
• He signed Vontaze Burfict who is the poster child for self-immolation.

The Antonio Brown Experiment in Oakland is over; the Raiders need not worry about it any longer.  And if reports this morning are correct, it may be that The Vontaze Burfict Experiment in Oakland will be set aside for more than a little while.  Burfict is facing a suspension from the league; by itself, that is not news; when Burfict plays a full season without some sort of league sanction, it is a story that falls into the man-bites-dog category.  Burfict has been suspended twice for illegal and brutal hits on opposing players – one of which was Antonio Brown interestingly – and he served a suspension for testing positive for PEDs.  CBSSports.com has a report this morning citing a Tweet from ESPN’s Chris Mortenson that Burfict may be suspended for the balance of the 2019 season.

As a repeat offender for illegal and dirty hits, Burfict seems to have shown that 4-game suspensions as levied in the past are not sufficient for him to consider changing his ways.  As he was leaving the field after his ejection from yesterday’s game for another illegal hit, he was smiling and blowing kisses to the fans in Indy.  I don’t know how long a suspension the league should hand down in this instance but keeping the punishment at the 4-game level would seem to be an act that condones such behavior instead of an act that censures such behavior.

Another NFL story that gets a lot of attention week-by-week is the potential contract extension for Dak Prescott in Dallas.  I think Prescott is worth the market price for a young franchise QB because he has shown me that he has the talent and the focus to fill that role more than adequately.  I also think that the lack of a contract extension is not necessarily any lack of recognition by the Cowboys that Dak Prescott is an important element of their team structure.

It takes two sides to reach an agreement on a contract – and it might just be that Dak Prescott and his advisors have convinced themselves that it is in their best interest to stretch out these negotiations.  Of course, they would probably be willing to take a contract offer from the Cowboys that blows the lid off every previous QB deal in league history – – but absent such a blockbuster, they can hold their fire.  The term of art here seems to be the Dak Prescott will be “betting on himself”.

Prescott’s contract is up at the end of this season; if I understand the terms of his deal, he will make just over $2M this year which is more than he has made in the three years prior to this one on his current contract.  Given his performance, he has been an ever-loving bargain for the Cowboys, but they have no option year on his deal.  If there is no contract extension signed, the Cowboys would have to put a franchise tag on Prescott next offseason and the value of a franchise tag for a QB this year is $24.8M.  What that means to me is that Dak Prescott is going to get a raise to at least $25M next season; and therefore, he can – if he wishes – just play on knowing that level of recompense is about to happen.  He can look at that franchise tag as his “signing bonus” for a contract extension and layer his demands from that starting point.

Last week, I mentioned that the NCAA notified Kansas University of a handful of charges that the school’s basketball program shredded several of the NCAA’s hallowed regulations and that Kansas was going to fight such allegations.  Meanwhile, the NCAA announced its decision in another men’s basketball “situation” late last week when it put Georgia Tech on 4 years’ probation and banned the school from any post-season tournament activities for the upcoming season.

The most salacious violation of NCAA recruiting rules involves a Georgia Tach assistant coach who arranged for a potential recruit to visit the house of a program booster who then arranged for the recruit to take a trip to a strip club where the recruit had access to $300 to spend in the club.  The more mundane violation of NCAA recruiting rules involved another booster offered impermissible benefits to a player who was considering transferring to Georgia Tech to the tune of “thousands of dollars in the form of shoes, lodging, clothing, transportation and meals.”

Here are the important sanctions levied upon Georgia Tech basketball:

• Four years on probation – and a loss of one scholarship in each of those 4 years.
• No tournament appearance at the close of this season.
• A fine of $5K plus 2% of the men’s basketball budget for 2019.
• A slew of reduced permissible recruiting activities for the next 4 years.
• “Disassociation” of the school and the assistant coach involved here.
• “Disassociation” of the school and the two boosters involved in the actions here.

In no way do I intend to prejudge the validity of the allegations made by the NCAA regarding the Kansas program.  I would note, however, that if this is the level of punishment that the NCAA is ready to hand down to a recognizable basketball school such as Georgia Tech for behaviors that are nowhere near as flagrant as the behaviors alleged in the Kansas affair, it might be a good idea for the Kansas braintrust to consider the possibility of a negotiated settlement rather than risking a complete loss.  Just a thought…

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation recently in the Seattle Times:

“The Miami Dolphins — outscored 102-10 in their first two games — are so bad that five SEC teams are already trying to get them on next season’s nonconference schedule.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This week, Football Friday falls on a Thursday as my wife and I prepare for our next set of weekend houseguests.  Last weekend, we were away with friends meaning that I saw only a fraction of my normal weekend football viewing “live and up close” and had to rely on a lot of replay coverage after the fact.  I will miss a lot of this weekend’s live coverage again – – but hope to return to a normal schedule for a couple of weeks after this one.

Before going through this week’s football review, let me note that the Six-Pack from two weeks ago went 5-1.  The single losing pick was taking the Chargers – 2.5 points over the Lions who won the game outright.  Here are the breakdown stats:

• Overall Six-Pack record is now 9-3
• Overall college games in the Six-Pack are now 4-0
• Overall NFL games in the Six-Pack are now 5-3.
• Past performance is no guarantee of future results…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Two weeks ago, the Linfield College Wildcats traveled across 3 time zones to take on the Rowan University and won that game 35-14.  Last week the Wildcats traveled to Redlands CA to take on the Redlands Bulldogs and lost that game 27-19.  Linfield’s record as of today is 1-1 as they pursue yet one more winning season in football – as they have done every year since 1956.  This week, the Wildcats are on the road again in Forest Grove, OR taking on the Pacific University Boxers.  Pacific comes to the game with an 0-3 record on the season and this is the first Northwest Conference game of the year for Linfield.  Go Wildcats!

Combining college football commentary over the past couple of weeks …  UNC had won two close games to start the season with end-of-game heroics; that ended with a loss to Wake Forest 24-18.  All good things must come to an end; so says Geoffrey Chaucer.

Two weeks ago, Kansas beat BC handily 48-24.  Given that Kansas had lost to College of Charleston 12-7 the week before that, I would call this result something more than a “mild surprise”. Here is a bigger surprise:

• This was the first time in almost 11 years that Kansas had won a road game against a team in a Power 5 Conference.  That last road win for Kansas took place in the latter stages of the George W. Bush administration.

Georgia and Notre Dame squared off in a big game for both schools.  It was so big that the stadium in Athens, GA was not large enough to accommodate all the Georgia fans who had tix for the game plus the 8500 folks who bought ticket allotments for Notre Dame.  The solution was temporary bleachers added to Sanford Stadium bringing the total capacity for this game to 92,750.

This game was a big game for Georgia and a huge game for Notre Dame.  Notre Dame acquitted itself well in this road game despite losing by a TD.  It was the Game of the Week.

Syracuse took on W. Michigan – and normally, that game would not merit even a glance let alone a comment.  However, Syracuse was placed in the Top 25 in the first week of the season and proceeded to shut out Liberty University in the opening game.  Not a big deal …  Then, Syracuse lost two games in a row having its doors blown off by Maryland in Week 2 and then by Clemson in Week 3.  The combined score in those two losses was 104-26.  Based on those results, it is fair to suggest that Syracuse is not “Top 25 material” but how bad were they?

• Syracuse 52   W. Michigan 33

The Auburn/Texas A&M game paired two very good teams against each other.  Auburn won the game 28-20 and the game looks closer than it really was because the Aggies rallied to score 17 points in the 4^th quarter.

The Pitt Panthers did the CFP a humongous favor last weekend beating UCF 35-34.  It was the first regular season loss for UCF in about 3 years and what it did was to alleviate any lobbying pressure on the CFP Selection Committee come December to take UCF seriously as a potential national champion.

• I give UCF all the props and high marks for their aggressive out-of-conference scheduling.  Signing on to take on Stanford and Pitt in successive weeks is bold scheduling.
• Having said that, their next 8 games are against their AAC sister schools – and none of them are meaningful on a national stage.  I am being most polite when I say that, too…
• This loss means that UCF might only be “considered” for a CFP slot if Pitt is also under consideration – – and that is simply not going to be the case.
• Ergo, Pitt handed the CFP Selection Committee a trump card to hold off any bleatings and pleadings from advocates of teams like UCF who “belong in the CFP.”

Before you drink that Kool-Aid, check out the rest of the UCF schedule here.

Cal beat Ole Miss 28-20 on the road in Oxford, MS.  The Golden Bears are now 4-0 and just might be the class of the PAC-12.  The Cal defense is for real and it is that unit that has taken the major role in formulating this 4 game winning-streak to start the 2019 season.  That was anything but the case at Cal during the Jeff Tedford Era there…

Speaking of the PAC-12, Utah was on the road and favored over USC; that does not happen often, but it was the case last week.  The game had serious implications for the PAC-12 South Division race and USC won the game outright using a 2^nd string QB.

THE most bizarre result from last week had to be the UCLA win over Washington St. by a score of 67-63.  How bizarre was this game?

1. UCLA scored 50 points in the second half to come from behind to win.
2. Washington St. led by 32 points in the third quarter – – and came from ahead to lose.
3. Washington St. QB, Anthony Gordon threw for 9 TDs in this game – – and he was the losing QB.
4. Washington St. allowed 2 TDs on special teams.
5. Washington St. turned the ball over 6 times in the game.

SMU beat TCU 41-38.  This is a major rivalry game that does not get the national focus that other rivalry games do.  These schools are only about 40 miles apart – the distance from Dallas to Fort Worth.

Wisconsin beat Michigan 35-14 – – but the game was not nearly this close because Michigan scored its 2 TDs very late in the game when the outcome had long been a foregone conclusion.  I saw a bit more than half of this game as a replay which was a good thing because I knew the outcome and that allowed me to ignore some of the “follow the ball” plays and focus on things like coverages and line play.  Here is what I saw:

• Wisconsin ran the ball down Michigan’s throat and beat Michigan physically at the line of scrimmage on offense – and on defense.
• In Jim Harbaugh’s successful collegiate coaching stops before Michigan – University of San Diego and then Stanford – the team trademark was to win using smashmouth football.  Michigan lost this game because Wisconsin was much the more dominant physical team.

Going into the 2019 season, there were more than a handful of pundits who thought that Michigan would be a contender for a CFP invitation.  After seeing last week’s performance, there is no way I can see that happening and that brings me to wonder about Jim Harbaugh and his tenure at Michigan.

• Yes, he is an alum who was the quarterback for a successful Michigan team that defeated Ohio State in 1985.
• Yes, he was successful in the collegiate ranks AND at the NFL level taking the Niners to a Super Bowl after the 2012 season.
• Nonetheless, he has been at Michigan for a tad over 4 years now – – at a tidy $7.5M per year don’t you know – – and he has yet to beat Ohio State or Michigan State or Wisconsin on a regular basis.
• At what point do the folks who are ponying up that $7.5M per year begin to ask if this is all there is to the “Jim Harbaugh Experience”?

 

NCAA Games of Interest:

 

(Fri Nite) Penn St. – 6.5 at Maryland (62.5):  The Terps had last week off as a BYE Week and if you look at the schedule, you will realize that the team has to have been pointing to this game since the beginning of Spring Practice 6 months ago.  If Maryland pulls out a win here, this would be THE biggest win in Maryland’s tenure in the Big 10.  I am not convinced that this year’s Penn State team is one of its finest products.  I am tempted to take Maryland on the Money Line at +200 – – but I will resist that temptation and take the game to stay UNDER.

(Fri Nite) Arizona St. at Cal – 4.5 (41.5):  As noted above, the Cal defense is for real; the oddsmaker thinks that both defenses will dominate the opposing offenses here.  This is an important game in terms of PAC-12 standings for both teams.

UConn at UCF – 44 (64):  Such is the competition in the AAC for UCF from here on out in the 2019 season …

Buffalo – 2.5 at Miami (OH) (46.5):  What is interesting here is that Miami opened the week as a 2-point favorite.  Miami lost last week by 71 points to Ohio State and they opened here as a favorite…?

Ga Tech at Temple – 8 (49):  The interesting aspect here is that the coach at Temple last year is now the coach at Georgia Tech.

NC State at Florida State – 6.5 (61.5):  Here you have two VERY unreliable teams.  This game could be a blowout in favor of either team – – or it could go into quadruple OT…

Rutgers at Michigan – 28 (49.5):  The Wolverines struggled against Army and then lost badly last week (see above).  Most likely, they take out their frustrations against an over-matched Rutgers’ team here.

Washington St. at Utah – 6 (57):  Both teams lost last week (see above).  The Cougars’ loss was either “embarrassing” or “devastating”.  We will find out how they play in this road game against a good opponent…

Ole Miss at Alabama – 38 (61):  Cal held Ole Miss to 20 points last week.  I would not be shocked to see Alabama to hold Ole Miss to 10 points this week.

Mississippi St. at Auburn – 10 (47):    Is this a “trap game” for Auburn?  They have Florida next up on their dance card.  If the Tigers keep their focus, they can win this game handily…

UVa at Notre Dame – 12.5 (48.5):  Notre Dame lost to Georgia but showed in that loss that they are one of the top teams in the country.  UVa is not at that same level of competition.  I like Notre Dame to take care of business at home, so I’ll put them in the six-Pack to win and cover.

Ohio St – 17 at Nebraska (67):  I am not yet committed to the “Nebraska hype”; I think Scott Frost needs a bit more time to assemble a team that can take on the top-shelf teams in the Big 10.  Even on the road, I’ll put Ohio St in the Six-Pack to win and cover.

UCLA at Arizona – 7 (71):  Last week, the total score in the UCLA game was 130 points.  Three weeks ago, the total score in the Arizona game was 105 points.  Just saying …

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            About a week ago, I commented on the fact that there were two NFL games on the same weekend that had greater than 20-point spreads attached to them and that I could never recall such a thing in the past.  I have often referred to a reader of these rants in Houston who maintains sports records and data far beyond anything I might have access to.  I received an e-mail from the “Houston reader” shedding light on that situation:

“My computer records go back to 1993 and this is the first week since then where two teams were favored by 17 points or more.

“Prior to that, Week 5 of the 1987 season (Oct. 11-12) with replacement players in the strike-shortened year was the last time we had two 20-plus-point favorites in the same week.

“Since 1993, according to my records, only seven NFL games have closed with a point spread of 20 points or higher and those teams are 7-0 SU [Straight Up], but just 1-6 ATS [Against the Spread].

“Favs were the home team in each game:

1993 – SF -23.5 Cincy (21-8) Week 14

2001 – St. Louis -20 Carolina (48-14) Week 9

2007 – NE -24 Philly (31-28) Week 12

2007 – NE -20.5 NYJ (20-10) Week 15

2007 – NE -22 Miami (28-7) Week 16

2011 – NE -21 Indy (31-24) Week 13

2013 – Denver -26.5 Jax (35-19) Week 6”

Thank you to the Houston reader for the clarification here.

Two weeks ago, the Bucs beat the Panthers 20-16 in an ugly game.  Watching parts of the replay of that game, I made the following notation on my clipboard:

“Sorry.  Cam Newton does not look right to me.  Whatever injury he had last year is not fully healed.”

I am not a physician or an expert in kinesiology by any stretch of the imagination.  That notation simply means that to my eyes, he was not playing with the same “natural movement” I had come to expect from him in a football field; his throws looked labored and wrong.  Unfortunately for Cam Newton – and Panthers’ fans – I might have been correct in my assessment.  Carolina has already lost two home games and Cam Newton will miss his second consecutive game this week.  Things are not looking up in Charlotte…

Bob Molinaro had this observation in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot recently.  It is indeed one of those inexplicable matters of mathematics:

“Stat-ic: The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and Ravens’ Lamar Jackson both finished their Week 1 games with perfect passer ratings of 158.3. But as Troy Aikman wondered on air Sunday, how can a quarterback have a perfect rating if he’s thrown some incompletions? A mystery for the ages.”

By the way, both the Lions and the Bills are undefeated going into Week 4 of the NFL season.  Raise your hand if you had that situation obtaining back in August.  I certainly did not.

The Jets and the Niners have their BYE Weeks already.

• The Jets have started 0-3 and have to hope that this week off will give Sam Darnold time to return to the field after his bout with mononucleosis to lead the Jets against the Eagles in Philly next week.
• The Niners have started the season 3-0 with two of those wins coming on the road.  They will use the week to prepare for a visit by the Browns next week.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

(Thurs Nite) Philly at Green Bay – 4 (46):  The Eagles have a ton of injuries and are simply not playing very well.  The Packers are not playing all that well either on offense, but the Packers defense has been responsible for the team’s 3-0 start to the season.  The Eagles have not been able to mount any serious pass rush so far this year and if Aaron Rodgers is given plenty of time, this game could get very ugly very quickly.  The Packers at home are always a tough out.  In this situation, I think they are the dominant team; so, I’ll put the Packers in the Six-Pack to win and cover.

Carolina at Houston – 4 (47):  The Panthers recorded 8 sacks against Kyler Murray last week.  The Texans’ O-Line is not the source of the Texans’ strength; it had better find a way to protect Deshaun Watson in this game.  Kyle Allen will make his second start for the Panthers at QB – both of those starts coming on the road.

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7 (45):  Browns/Ravens games are always layered in emotional rivalry; in this case, the game is critical to the Browns; a Ravens’ win here would give the Ravens a 2-game lead over the Browns in the AFC North race plus the tie-breaker for the moment in that race.  The Ravens are the better team overall – – despite the offseason hype that was heaped onto the Browns.  Baker Mayfield has been disappointing so far this year; he has a QB Rating of 70.3.  To give you a perspective on what a QB rating of 70.3 might mean, consider these career QB ratings:

• Kordell Stewart 70.7
• Bill Nelson 70.3
• Trent Dilfer 70.2
• Vince Ferragamo 70.1

Washington at Giants – 2.5 (49):  The only redeeming feature of this game is that it is a division game.  Neither team is very good.  The Skins never seem to play well in the Meadowlands which is frightening to contemplate given how badly they have played in other venues this season.  The question here is direct:

• Can Daniel Jones maintain his “mystique” and play to the level of the mania that accompanied his debut? 

Oh, and by the way, he will have to try to do that without Saquon Barkley…

I will resist the temptation to take the OVER in this game even though I recognize that both defenses here stink.

Chargers – 15.5 at Miami (44):  In the first three games of this season, the Dolphins have been outscored 133-16.  This is a “body clock game” for the Chargers and the spread is more than 2 TDs.  There isn’t any doubt where the talent lies in this game, but I would touch this game as a betting proposition any more than I would pet a cobra.

Oakland at Indy – 7 (45):  The Raiders have not looked good since the first game of the season; the Colts played well against the Falcons last week.

KC – 6.5 at Detroit (53):  Both teams here are undefeated – although the Lions have a tie on their record.  This game has the potential to light up the scoreboard because both teams bring stronger offensive units to the field than defensive units.

New England – 7 at Buffalo (42):  This is another game between two undefeated teams – – and it is a division game.  That qualifies this as the Game of the Week.  The last time the Bills started a season at 3-0 was in 2011.  So far in 2019, the Pats’ defense has yet to allow a TD – even though the Jets scored 14 points last week.  The Bills’ defense is excellent also.  I see this as a low-scoring game; I see that the spread here is a full TD; I see that the Bills are the home team with an excellent defense.  All that leads me to put the Bills plus the points in this week’s Six-Pack.

Tennessee at Atlanta – 4 (46):  The Falcons are the better team here and that is why this game is not a wagering proposition.  The Titans will play up to or down to the level of the opposition.  The Falcons seem to have too many weeks where their talent goes into hibernation.  Consider these stats and you will understand why there is no way to bet on this game:

• Marcus Mariotta was sacked 9 times last week by the Jags.  That is absurd…
• Matt Ryan has thrown 6 INTs in 3 games so far in 2019.  Really?

Tampa Bay at Rams – 9.5 (49):  This is another game with the potential to turn ugly.  Last week, Daniel Jones led the Giants to a win over the Bucs scoring 32 points.  If the Giants can go “north of 30 points” on the Bucs’ defense, why can’t the Rams go “north of 40”?

Seattle – 5 at Arizona (48):  The Seahawks simply laid an egg last week against the Saints; the Seahawks cannot afford to play like that very often.  The Seahawks lost that game despite outgaining the Saints 515 yards to 265 yards; it is not easy to come out as the loser in a game like that.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are not as bad as the Dolphins, but they are demonstrably in the lower echelon of the NFL – particularly on defense.  I think the Seahawks will rebound this week, so I’ll put them in the Six-Pack to win and cover.

Minnesota at Chicago – 2.5 (38):  This game is an important division game in the context of the NFC North race.  It was a strong contender for the Game of the Week.  Both teams will bring excellent defensive units to the field and each team will bring a QB to the field who has “underperformed expectations”.  Offensive scoring in this game should be infrequent.  Here in Curmudgeon Central, the key to the game appears to be:

• Which excellent defense is going to make which underwhelming QB look worse?

Jax at Denver – 3 (39):  This was the runner-up game for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Neither team has shown much this year; they are not division rivals.  If forced to come up with a reason to care about this game, here is the best that I can do:

• Will Jalen Ramsey have recovered sufficiently from his “flu” to play in the game?
• Will Von Miller and/or Bradley Chubb finally record a sack in this game?

Pretty thin gruel there…

(Sun Nite) Dallas – 2.5 at New Orleans (47):  This is a big game for both teams; the winner will likely have “open water” between their position atop their division and the second-place team in that division.  People focus on the Cowboys’ offense and the stars on that side of the ball; quietly, the Cowboys’ defense has only allowed 44 points in the first 3 games of 2019.

(Mon Nite) Cincy at Pittsburgh – 4 (43.5):  How can it be that ESPN has gotten another rotten egg game for Monday Night Football?  Last week it had the Bears/skins snoozer; this week it gets a Bagel Game – where both teams bring Zeros to the game in the win column.  Does the NFL have a vendetta against ESPN?  Is there a warlock out there somewhere who has placed a hex on the MNF schedule?  This game is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Let me present how these teams arrived at this game with 0-3 records:

• The Bengals led in the 4^th quarter in two of those losses – and then gagged the game away.
• The Bengals have rushed for 126 yards in 3 games this season.
• The Steelers lost 2 of their games by 4 points or less after losing a blowout game to the patriots in Week 1.
• The Steelers rushing defense is in the bottom 5 in the NFL.

The Bengals have lost 9 consecutive “prime-time games” on the road.  Maybe the best reason to tune into this game is to see what form of self-immolation Andy Dalton will employ to stretch that streak to 10 consecutive prime-time losses on the road?

Oh, by the way, in case you think that I am over-reacting to the miserable slate of games offered to and by ESPN on Monday Night Football this year, here is a bit of foreshadowing:

• October 28, 2019 the MNF game will be Dolphins at Steelers

Let me summarize this week’s Six-Pack:

• Penn St./Maryland UNDER 62.5
• Notre Dame – 12.5 over UVa
• Ohio St. – 17 over Nebraska
• Packers – 4 over Eagles
• Bills +7 against Patriots
• Seahawks – 5 over Cardinals.

Finally, let me close today with an observation by H. L. Mencken – often referred to as The Bard of Baltimore – regarding college football:

“College football would be more interesting if the faculty played instead of the students – there would be a great increase in broken arms, legs and necks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………