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Ivan Pavlov recognized that dogs would begin to salivate whenever they sensed something around them that they had learned to associate with the arrival of food.  Here in Curmudgeon Central, I know that I need to limber up my keyboard fingers every Friday because I associate Fridays with Football Friday.  It is only when I have finished the rant and posted it that I can focus on the food my long-suffering wife has prepared for dinner which always causes me to salivate.

As usual, let me begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack:

• College = 1-1-0
• NFL = 1-3-0
• Total = 2-4-0

Those less-than-wonderful outcomes lead to these cumulative totals for the season:

• College = 4-6-0
• NFL = 9-10-1
• Total = 13-16-1

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats extended their unbeaten record for 2021 to 4-0 with a convincing 42-7 victory over previously unbeaten Whitworth University.  That win is all the more impressive given the fact that Whitworth had given up only 18 points per game prior to last week’s loss to Linfield.  This weekend, Linfield will host Pacific University (Oregon) and Pacific brings a 3-1 record to the kickoff.  Go Wildcats!

Lest you doubt the top-to-bottom quality of the SEC, consider that CBSports.com ranks all 130 Division 1-A football teams every week.  In this week’s rankings here is how the SEC stacks up against the rest of the college football world”

• The SEC has the #1 team (Georgia)
• The SEC has 3 teams in the Top 10 (add Alabama and Kentucky)
• The SEC has 6 teams in the Top 20 (add Ole Miss, Florida, Arkansas)
• The SEC has 8 teams in the Top 30 (add Texas A&M, Auburn)
• The SEC has 10 teams in the Top 40 (add Mississippi St. and Tennessee)

Other than finding Vandy on the schedule at most once a  year, SEC teams do not get a lot of “weeks off” …

I know this will never happen because there would be too many vested interests offended, but as of this week, I would not be offended if the CFP consisted of 2 SEC teams and 2 Big-10 teams.  Georgia, Alabama, Iowa and Ohio State – – as of this week – – would make for an interesting playoff bracket.  Maybe Michigan or Michigan St. could be exchanged for the two Big-10 teams named here; that would not offend me.  Here is the basis of my thinking:

• This is a down year for the ACC.  Clemson has been unimpressive, and UNC has been downright underachieving.
• The Big-12 is unimpressive.  Oklahoma is probably the best team there but many of their wins leave me saying, “Meh!”
• The Pac-12 is hardly a fearsome conference once you get beyond Oregon and maybe Arizona St.
• Notre Dame and BYU are the best of the independents by a mile and neither of them is remotely deserving of a CFP berth.
• So … why not two teams from the SEC and two from the Big-10?

And since I mentioned Georgia as the #1 ranked team in the country this week, let me present some stats about their defense in 2021:

• In 6 games, Georgia’s opponents have only gotten to the Red Zone 8 times.
• 128 of the 130 Division 1-A teams have given up as many or more TDs than Georgia has allowed Red Zone penetrations.
• In 6 games, opponents have only scored 6 TDs on the Georgia defense.
• The Bottom Line is: These guys are good!

USC fired head coach Clay Helton earlier this year, but things have not exactly turned toward the positive for the Trojans.  Consider:

• On 25 September, USC lost to Oregon St. at home by a score of 45-27.  That was the first time Oregon St. had beaten USC in LA since 1960.  In 1960, Dwight Eisenhower was in the final days of his presidency, Egypt began building the Aswan Dam and Ben Hur won the Oscar for “Best Picture”.
• On October 9, USC lost to Utah at home by a score of 42-26.  (See below)  That was the first time Utah had beaten USC in LA since 1916.  In 1916, Woodrow Wilson was ending his first term in office, World War I was raging in Europe and Georgia Tech beat Cumberland College in a football game by the score of 222-0.

[Aside:  As Warner Wolf was wont to say, “If you had Cumberland and 221 points … YOU LOST!!!]

Let me mention a team that might not be nearly as good as their 2-3 record might suggest.  La-Monroe’s two wins include one victory over Division 1-AA Jackson State; if you ignore that win, their record against Division 1-A opponents is 1-3.  Here’s the deal:

• The combined score in those 3 losses is Opponents 159   La-Monroe 37.
• The average margin of defeat is 40.6 points per game.

Just to keep you abreast of the contenders for this year’s Brothel Defense Award – – the team whose defense allows anyone and everyone to score at will:

• UMass gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kansas gives up 43.8 points per game.
• Arkansas State gives up 46.7 points per game.

New Mexico and Colorado St. play this weekend in a clash of lesser lights in the Mountain West conference.  As is usually the case, it could be worse; it could be New Mexico versus winless UNLV.  Hold  your breath, that game will happen on 6 November…

Colorado will take on Arizona this week.  The PAC-12 is not near the top of the Power 5 and neither of these teams is anywhere near the top of the PAC-12.  Add to that the fact that Arizona’s starting QB is now out for the season after suffering an injury in the UCLA game last week.  For fans on the West Coast, find another game to focus on this weekend…

However, there is one game on the card for this weekend that looks to be even less interesting than those mentioned above.  Let me give you the line for the game and then make some comments:

Yale – 3 at UConn (45.5):  UConn is 0-7 in 2021 which is rather bad considering that no other team is 0-7 and that they lost last week to UMass.  However, now consider the shame associated with being the home team against an Ivy League opponent and being the underdog in that game.  Which is worse?  This game is the last remaining “soft spot” for the Huskies unless you think that Middle Tennessee is equivalently soft compared to Yale.  Here is the rest of the UConn schedule after this week:

• Vs. Middle Tennessee
• At Clemson
• At UCF
• Vs. Houston

If I were trying to hype this game, I would probably call it an “interstate rivalry” – – except the two schools are “rivals” in just about no sense of the word.

In SEC action last week…

Texas A&M 41  Alabama 38:  Clearly, this was the shocker of the week.  Alabama dominated the stats gaining 522 yards to 379 for the Aggies and Alabama converted 10 of 19 third down tries.  The Aggies returned a kickoff for a TD in the middle of the 3^rd quarter.  Jimbo Fisher is the first former assistant under Nick Saban to beat Saban head-to-head.

Georgia 34  Auburn 10:  The Georgia defense gave up twice as many points as usual but held Auburn to 39 yards rushing on 28 attempts.  Auburn led 3-0 halfway through the first quarter but did not score again until late in the third quarter.  By that time, Georgia had 24 points on the scoreboard.  However, hold your breath here; Georgia gave up a TD in this game and the Bulldogs’ defense just does not do that very often (see above).

Ole Miss 52  Arkansas 51:  There were 41 points scored in the 4^th quarter alone here.  The total offense for these two teams was 1287 yards – – 674 of those yards were on the ground.  Both teams averaged 6 or more yards per carry.  Needless to say, it was not a great day for tackling.  There were 59 first downs recorded.  The game ended with Arkansas failing on a two-point conversion that would have won the game.  Phew…!

Florida 42  Vandy 0:  Florida called off the dogs and played a scoreless 4^th quarter.

Kentucky 42  LSU 21:  Looking at the score, you might think Kentucky dominated the stat sheet – – but that is not the case.  Total offense for Kentucky was 474 yards to 408 yards for LSU.  Kentucky did dominate the ground game with 329 yards rushing on 43 carries.  LSU did not score until midway into the 3^rd quarter and posted two TDs in the 4^th quarter when the game was out of reach.  Just for the record, the last time Kentucky was 6-0 was back in 1950 – – the same year that Oregon State beat USC in Los Angeles (see above).

In games that matter to Big-10 folks …

Ohio State 66  Maryland  17:  Running up scores is important for Ohio State; it could impress the CFP Selection Committee.

Michigan St.  31  Rutgers  13:  Michigan State remains undefeated at 6-0.  Looking ahead, the Spartans still have Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State on their schedule.

Wisconsin 24  Illinois 0:  When a strong defense plays a middling offense, this is the not-so-surprising result…

Iowa 23  Penn State 20:  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 to start the 2021 season and had to rally from a 20-10 deficit midway through the third quarter for the win.  This was a defensive game all along.  Total offense for Iowa was 305 yards and total offense for Penn State was 287 yards.  Penn State turned the ball over 4 times – – all on INTs – – and there were 14 punts in the game.

Michigan 32  Nebraska 29:  The Wolverines are 6-0 to start the 2021 season.  The Huskers trailed 13-0 at the half but rallied to lead 22-19 at the end of 3 quarters.  But Michigan staged a rally of its own in the 4^th quarter to eke out a win here.  The margin of victory came on a field goal set up by a Michigan fumble recovery late in the game.

In ACC action…

UVa 34  Louisville 33:  Louisville led 30-13 to start the 4^th quarter.  The Cavaliers capped their late rally with a drive of 80 yards on 12 plays in the final three minutes to win this one.

Florida St.  35  UNC  25:  Last week after the Seminoles won their first game of the season, I wondered if that was an awakening or a mirage.  Well, UNC fans will probably say it was an awakening.  Florida State scored two long TDs – – a 53-yard run and a 33- yard pass.

Wake Forest 40  Syracuse 37  (OT):  Wake remains undefeated in 2021; the last time Wake started a season at 6-0 was in 1944.  Syracuse won the stat battle gaining 513 yards to “only” 432 yards for Wake Forest.  Syracuse got a field goal in the first possession of the overtime period, but Wake countered with a 22-yard scoring pass for the win.

Notre Dame 32  Va Tech 29:  The Irish are 5-1; give them credit for pulling out close games.  This one was decided by a 48-yard field goal with 17 seconds left in the game.  The Irish have won five games this year; three of those 5 games were 3-point wins; you cannot accuse Note Dame of “choking” in close contests.  The Irish got a TD to tie the game at 29 with two-and-a-half minutes left in the game; Notre Dame’s defense got a three and out; then the offense to set up the winning field goal.

In the Big-12 …

Oklahoma 55  Texas 48:  The Big-12 retains an unbeaten team, but it went down to the end.  Texas led the game 28-7 in the first half and  41-30 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  The total offense in this game was 1178 yards.  The Sooners averaged more yards per carry (8.3) than they did yards per pass attempt (7.3).  Imagine that you are part of the Texas defensive unit and you saw your offense gain 517 yards for the day and score 48 points – – and it comes out as a loss in the record book.  Talk about depressing.  By the way, even with all that offense on display, there were 10 punts in the game.

For West Coast Fans, some thoughts on PAC-12 games…

Washington St.  31  Oregon St.  24:  So, now the Beavers also have in in-conference loss.  PAC-12 games are enigmatic if nothing else…

Utah 42  USC 26:  This game was a massive beat-down despite the score.  Utah led 35-3 at the start of the 4^th quarter.

UCLA 34  Arizona 16:  The Wildcats are 0-5 for the season and are not playing competitive football in the PAC-12.  Their conference losses have been by an average of 20 points per game.

Arizona St.  28  Stanford 10:  Got that one wrong in last week’s Six-Pack.  My bad!

In miscellaneous games from last week…

Boise St.  26  BYU 17:  That is the first loss of the season for BYU.  Boise St. produced 90 yards more offense in the game; they limited BYU to 4 of 10 on third-down tries and 1 of 3 on fourth-down attempts.  In addition, the Boise St. defense forced 4 turnovers in the game.  It is amazing that the score was this close.

Cincy 52  Temple 3:  On the stat sheet, Cincy more than doubled Temple on offense.  The Bearcats gained 537 yards to 226 for the Owls.

SMU 31  Navy 24:  This was not the best outcome for Cincy fans; they would have preferred a much bigger win over Navy whose record is now 1-4.  Nevertheless, SMU remains undefeated at 6-0.

Coastal Carolina 52  Arkansas St. 21:  Last week produced another blowout win for Coastal over another weak opponent; Arkansas St. is 1-5 and is the leader as of this week to win the Brothel Defense Award.

Nevada 55  New Mexico St. 28:  This game was not nearly this close.  Nevada led 52-7 at the start of the 4^th quarter and then the Aggies scored 3 of the more meaningless TDs of the season in the final stanza.

Texas St.  33  South Alabama 31  (4OT):  This was a strange game indeed.  The game was tied at 24 at the end of regulation and each team scored a TD in the first OT.  Then the next two OT periods saw both teams failing to score a point.

And saving the worst for last…

UMass 27  UConn 13:  The Stink Bowl happened… The UConn defense surrendered 407 yards to a bad football team last week.  Remember when Randy Edsall “resigned” after the first game of the year, they put the defensive coordinator in charge.  I guess that means the student equipment manager was too busy taking organic chem lab to take on the head coaching duties too.

 

College Football Games of Interest:

 

(Fri Nite) Clemson – 13 at Syracuse (45):  Syracuse is surprisingly good this year and Clemson is unusually bad this year.  Nonetheless, the oddsmakers see this as a double-digit win for the Tigers.  If I were to play this game, I would probably take it to go OVER – – but that is NOT a selection for this week.

(Fri Nite) Cal at Oregon – 13 (54.5):  This game looks as if it could be a blowout – – but then again so did the Stanford/Oregon game…

Miami at UNC – 7 (64):  If you wanted to make a list of the ten most underachieving teams for this year based on pre-season expectations, I think both of these squads would be on the list.

Pitt – 5 at Va Tech (57):  Pitt is not a reliable team and Va Tech is not a reliable team.  Where those numbers came from is a mystery to me…

Texas Tech – 17 at Kansas (68):  Tech is 4-2 for the year but when they have a bad day and lose, they get slaughtered.  The two losses have come by a combined 56 points.  Kansas just stinks…

Michigan St. – 4 at Indiana (48.5):  Sparty is 6-0 and only gives 4 points to an Indiana team that is 2-3.  Moreover, look at the three losses for the Hoosiers:

• Iowa 34  Indiana 6
• Cincy 38  Indiana 24
• Penn State 24  Indiana 0

Even though Michigan St. might be looking ahead at three tough games on its schedule starting next week, I think they can keep it together here to cover 4 points; I’ll take Sparty to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Army at Wisconsin – 14 (38.5):  The Badgers lead the nation in run defense allowing only 41.6 yards per game on the ground.  Army is second in the nation in rushing offense gaining 318.2 yards per game on the ground.

NC State – 3 at BC (52):  Both teams are 4-1 but BC’s loss is in-conference so there may be more urgency on that sideline this weekend.

UCF at Cincy – 21 (57):  Cincy needs to continue to win big week after week…

Rutgers – 2 at Northwestern (45):  Rutgers is on a 3-game losing streak.  However, those losses came at the hands of undefeated Michigan, Ohio State and undefeated Michigan State.  Northwestern comes to this game after getting waxed by Nebraska two weeks ago by a score of 56-7.  One of my cohorts who is the “Chief Logistics Officer” for our Las Vegas trips has made some tidy sums fading Rutgers for the past 5 years or so.  He may be surprised to see this, but I think Rutgers can win this game handily – even on the road; I’ll take Rutgers and lay the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Colorado St. – 11 at New Mexico (45):  Two bad teams and a double-digit spread?  No thanks…

Arizona at Colorado – 6.5 (45):  Two bad teams…

Air Force at Boise St. – 4 (52):  Air Force leads the nation in rushing yards per game at 341.3 yards per game and also in rushing attempts per game at 66.5 rushing attempts per game.  Boise St. ranks 97^th in the nation in rush defense allowing 180.2 yards per game.

Arizona St. at Utah “pick ‘em” (50.5):  This is an important game.  Both teams are undefeated in conference games – – the only PAC-12 teams that can say that.

Liberty – 33 at La-Monroe (57):  I said above in the commentary that La-Monroe tends to lose games by large margins.  But against Liberty?  By almost 5 TDs?

Texas A&M – 9 at Missouri (59.5):  A classic opportunity for a letdown game by the Aggies after beating Alabama last week and now going on the road and playing a clearly inferior opponent.  Be careful…

Oklahoma St. at Texas – 4 (60):  Oklahoma St. is undefeated; Texas has lost twice – – one loss is in conference.  Texas opened as a 6.5-point favorite here and the line has dropped slowly as the week wore on.  Texas can score but does not defend.  Oklahoma St wins with their defense and presents an anemic offense.  Interesting…

TCU at Oklahoma – 13.5 (63):  Oklahoma is the other undefeated Big-12 team; TCU is 1-1 in conference play and 3-2 overall.  This has the makings of a shootout; the losing side might score 35 points; I like this game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Alabama – 17 at Mississippi St. (57.5):  The question here is how Alabama will react to its loss last week to Texas A&M.  One answer is that they just might bludgeon Mississippi St. to death here…

Purdue at Iowa – 11.5 (43):  Here is another possible letdown game as the Hawkeyes exhale after a close and tough win over Penn State last week…

Kentucky at Georgia – 21.5 (44.5):  This is the College Game of the Week notwithstanding the three-touchdown spread.  Both teams are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10.  Given that low Total Line and the healthy spread, the oddsmakers do not think Kentucky is going to score much at all.  Kentucky runs the ball well but is not a big-time passing team.  A one-dimensional offense against the Georgia defense is not an appealing sight.

Florida – 12 at LSU (59):  Talk about an unusual year, LSU is in last place in the SEC West at mid-season.  That has not happened often in recent history.

Ole Miss – 2.5 at Tennessee (83):  That is not a typo on the Total Line; one sportsbook has it at 84 points this morning.  That Total Line opened as low as 78.5 points at one Internet sports book, and it has been rising steadily all week long.  It was at 80 on Tuesday; it then went through 81 to 82 on Wednesday and hit 83 in mid-morning on Thursday.

Iowa St. – 6.5 at K-State (51):  I know I sound like a broken record here, but K-State is a much tougher opponent at home than on the road.  The Cyclones have lost the last seven times they have played at K-State.

Auburn at Arkansas – 4.5 (54):  Auburn has an in-conference loss but still has a head-to-head meeting with SEC West leader, Alabama.  Arkansas has 2 SEC losses already.  This could be a great game…

Stanford – 1.5 at Washington St. (52.5):  Two teams that play up and down from week to week…

Hawaii at Nevada – 14 (60):  Hawaii is on the road against a good Nevada team.  I would imagine that this spread would be half the number if the game were in Hawaii…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            When the Jags lost to the Titans last weekend, it was their 20^th consecutive loss going back to Week 1 of last season.  They are now one of only three teams in the history of the NFL to lose 20 or more games in succession.  The Jags next milestone is the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs in the mid-70s who lost their first 26 NFL games.  Here are the next 6 games for the Jags:

• Vs. Dolphins
• BYE Week
• At Seahawks
• Vs. Bills
• At Colts
• Vs Niners
• Vs Falcons

I do not see any games on this list that will have the Jags as favorites although the spread for this week’s game against the Dolphins is very thin.  However, later this season the Jags get back-to-back games that both look winnable:

• December 19:  Texans at Jags
• December 26:  Jags at Jets

If the Jags arrive at that Jets game on 26 December without winning any of their games along the way, the game in NY will be the one the Jags will need to set a new NFL record of 30 straight losses.  Not saying it will happen – – but it could…

Does anyone recall back in 2016 when lots of columnists and commentators were worried about the demise of the NFL?  That was the time of the Colin Kaepernick controversy and that was the time when a week did not go by without some hoary tale related to CTE such that people concluded that mothers would not let their kids play football.  TV ratings dropped; some attributed that to the Presidential election campaign in 2016; others saw it as the beginning of the impending decline of the NFL.

Well, the league survived 2016 and it survived the COVID-19 intrusion into the 2020 season, and it has fans back in the stand for 2021.  Those fans are not at home watching games so if anything, the TV ratings might be expected to go down ever so slightly.  But that is not the case.  According to Nielsen, the NFL’s TV ratings for 2021 are up just under 17% as compared to 2020 and are higher than they have been since 2014.  I am not trying to say that the NFL is invincible and will never go into eclipse – – but it is not likely to happen in the next 5-10 years.

The Cincinnati Bengals were once a franchise that was an easy target for scorn; you could rely on them to do something stupid to thwart whatever chance(s) they may have had to achieve something positive in any NFL season.  My sense is that we should take a hiatus from that sort of commentary:

• As long as Joe Burrow is able to play QB, the team has someone at the most important position in the NFL who is competent and poised.
• JaMarr Chase looks to be the real deal at WR.  If he can avoid the nonsensical and counter-productive self-promotion that impeded Odell Beckham, Jr., Chase should become a force majeure.
• Zac Taylor appears to be growing into the job of “head coach in the NFL”.  If that continues to be the case and the GM  there – Duke Tobin – does not totally screw up on upcoming drafts, the Bengals seem to be on a positive vector heading.

Moving along to comments about games last weekend …

Falcons 27  Jets 20:    The Falcons almost doubled the Jets on offense gaining 450 yards on offense to only 230 for the Jets.  And yet, it was a one-score game.  The Falcons had the ball for almost 36 minutes and recorded 11 more first downs than the Jets.  And still it was a one-score game.  The Falcons converted 9 of 14 third down conversions and 1 of 1 on fourth down.  And still it was a one-score game.  The Falcons led 20-3 at halftime and allowed the Jets to make this a one-score game.  The more things change …

Zach Wilson threw an INT in the game.  That means Wilson has now thrown one or more INTs in each of his five first games in the NFL.  As you might imagine, that is not a good stat, and that stat puts him in some seriously mediocre company along with these folks from the last 10 years or so:

• Blake Bortles
• DeShone Kizer
• Zach Mettenberger

For the record, I believe Zach Wilson will be far more successful and far more long-lived in the NFL than any of those other three QBs – – but he really needs to get a grip on his throws to the “wrong-colored jerseys”.

Pats 25  Texans 22:  This was a popular score on Sunday.  The Texans seemed to be in total control of the game here leading 22-9 early in the third quarter.  The Pats had a chance to take the lead early in the 4^th quarter but missed a PAT.  Nevertheless, Nick Folk redeemed himself by hitting a game winning field goal with about 15 seconds left in the game.  The stat sheet was as even as the game on the field.  The big difference was deep into the stat sheets:

• The Texans missed two PATs.
• The Texans missed a makeable field goal.
• The Texans had a punt that went all of zero yards.

Until last weekend, I thought that the Lions were the only team capable of such ineptitude to lose a game…

Packers 25  Bengals 22 (OT):  The game was decided late in OT when the Packers’ kicker, Mason Crosby, hit a 49-yard field goal – – but that is an ironic end to the game.  In the final 2 minutes of regulation time both Crosby and the Bengals’ kicker Evan McPherson missed game winning field goal tries.  Then in OT, Mason missed twice, and McPherson missed once again too.  The game had a distinctive “Alphonse and Gaston” aura around it.  Lost in all that “drama” at the end of the game was the fact that Davante Adams had a spectacular day gaining 206 yards receiving and scoring a TD in the game.

Steelers 27  Broncos 19:  The Broncos entered the game 3-1 on the season but it was the NFL schedule maker who was more than partly responsible for that record because those three wins were over the Jets, Giants and Jags.  The Broncos did not play like a 3-1 team here.  For example, the Broncos committed a delay of game penalty on the first play of the game.  I do not think I ever saw that happen before.  The Steelers dominated the first 3 quarters of the game and then held on to get the win.  They needed an INT in the end zone on a fourth-and-goal play in the final minute to assure the win.

Bucs 45  Dolphins 17:  The Dolphins led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter but after that, the game was simply an organized ass-kicking particularly in the 4^th quarter.  The Dolphins’ running game was shut down gaining a total of 36 yards on 9 rushing attempts for the game.  The Bucs had 558 yards on offense to 301 for the Dolphins.

Vikings 19  Lions 17:  Once again, the Lions lost by the score of 19-17 and the difference came on a last second field goal of more than 50 yards.  It happened in the late 60s once and then it happened to the Lions twice in the last 3 weeks – – a game ending field goal to make the score Opponent 19 and Lions 17.The Vikings gained 97 more yards on offense than the Lions and yet the Lions accumulated 4 more first downs in the game.  However, most of the Lions offense was in the middle of the field; their first trip into the Red Zone came in the final two minutes of the game.

Eagles 21  Panthers 18:  The Panthers had the ball for 35 minutes in the game, but Sam Darnold threw 3 INTs here.  Jalen Hurts did not have a great day passing – – 22 for 37 for 198 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT – – but he ran for 2 TDs in the second half allowing the Eagles to come back from a 12-point deficit.  A blocked punt by the Eagles late in the 4^th quarter set up the second of those TD rushes by Hurts.  The Eagles had 177 yards in their final four possessions of the game; prior to that, they had amassed a grand total of 96 yards for the day.  But they won the game…

Saints 33  Football Team 22:  Well, that self-proclaimed elite defense for the Football Team gave up 30+ points once again.  That makes 3 weeks in a row – – and it gave up 29 points the week before that 3-game streak began.  The Washington offense did its job; it was even with the Saints in total offense and Washington held the ball for almost thirty-six-and-a-half minutes in the game.  The difference in the game is summarized here:

• Red Zone Efficiency:  Washington 2 TDs in 5 visits; New Orleans 2 TDs in 2 visits
• Goal to Go Efficiency:  Washington 2 for 4  New Orleans  0 for 0.

Jameis Winston was as inconsistent as fans have come to expect from Jameis Winston.  He turned the ball over twice and he threw 4 TDs in the game including a 50-yard Hail Mary completion for a TD to end the first half.  Jameis Winston is a QB who can throw his team back into and well out of a game on any given Sunday.  And sometimes, he does both of those things on the same Sunday…

Bears 20  Raiders 9:  This was an all-out soiling of the bed sheets by the Raiders.  I cannot bring myself to put it any kindlier.  Playing a rookie QB whose passing total for the day was 111 yards, the Raiders could not dominate the game with their offense.  Moreover, the Raiders’ defense forced zero turnovers and allowed an anemic Bears’ offensive unit to convert 6 of 13 third-down tries.  The Raiders also recorded 10 penalties for a total of 82 yards. And remember, Raider Nation:

• This pathetic showing was against the sorry-assed Bears.

Cowboys 44  Giants 20:  The Giants seemed as if they would make this game interesting until Saquon Barkley injured an ankle, Kenny Golladay went out with an injury and Daniel Jones had to leave the game with what certainly looked like a concussion at the time.  After that, the outcome was not even remotely in doubt.  The Cowboys were 8 for 13 on third down conversions and just wore out the Giants’ defense.  Mike Glennon replaced Jones at QB for the Giants and threw for 196 yards and a TD – – but he also threw 2 INTs.

Titans 37  Jags 19:  The Jags had a significant advantage on offense in the game gaining 454 yards to 368 for the Titans.  Normally, that does not lead one to think of a scoreboard outcome like this one.  The differences here were:

• Two turnovers by the Jags
• Goal to Go Efficiency:  Jax 3 of 5  Titans  3 of 3

Nevertheless, this is another game where the Titans’ defense was sub-standard; somehow, the team needs to make some corrections in that phase of the game; the Titans lost the offensive stats for the game to the Jags – – not exactly an offensive juggernaut.  The message for the defense is along the lines of “C’mon man!”.

Chargers 47  Browns 42.:  I read a report that said the Elias Sports Bureau had a unique stat for this game.

• The Browns are the first team in NFL history to lose a game in which they scored 40 or more points AND did not turn the ball over at least once.
• Also, the Browns are now the first team to lose a game where it scored 40 or more points, gained 500 yards offense or more and did not turn the ball over once.
• Until last week, NFL teams that had those sorts of offensive stats were 442-0.

The combined total offense (1024 yards) by these teams made it seem as if this was a college game; the fourth quarter alone saw 41 points go up on the scoreboard.  Two stats that show the difference here:

• Red Zone Efficiency:  Browns were 3 of 6  Chargers were 4 of 4.
• Chargers converted 6 of 13 first down tries AND 3 of 3 fourth-down tries.

Bills 38  Chiefs 20:  This was as dominant a win as the score would indicate.  The Chiefs’ season seems to be in trouble because their offense cannot find enough ways to cover for the humongous shortcomings of the Chiefs’ defense.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire had to limp off for X-Rays and Travis Kelce missed the final few plays of the game after taking a big hit; that will enhance the offensive unit not at all.  Meanwhile, the Bills were hitting on all cylinders – offense, defense and special teams.

Cardinals 17  Niners 10:  This game was 10-7 in favor of the Cards as the fourth quarter began; it was close from beginning to end.  Trey Lance was the QB for the Niners and he played well – – for a rookie.  Here are his stat lines:

• 15 for 29 for 192 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT
• He also carried 16 times for 89 yards

Here are the stats that stand out to me as to why the Niners lost the game.  They were only 3 of 11 on third-down conversions AND they were a miserable 1 for 5 on fourth down conversions.

 

NFL Games:

 

The Bye Weeks begin this week with four teams sitting out action until next week.

1. Falcons:  Flying home from London with a win to set their record at 2-3 which assures that they will remain in last place in the NFL South next week.
2. Jets:  Flying home from London with a loss – – but with a hope that the Dolphins lose this week temporarily elevating the Jets out of the AFC East basement.
3. Niners:  The injury to Russell Wilson gives Niners’ fans hope that the Niners will not finish last in the NFC West.
4. Saints:  They get a week to savor last week’s win over the Football Team and hope to stay within striking distance of the Bucs in the NFC South.

            I watched the Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 last night.  There was a controversial call by officials late in the 4^th quarter of the game for taunting against the Eagles and it could well have had a material effect on the game outcome.  Let me take it out of the realm of “game-deciding” and simply say that it was a ticky-tack call at best; it is probably 100% correct as per the wording of the taunting rule and the league’s point of emphasis for enforcing it.  As a former official – basketball not football – I know it was also not a call that would ever have been made in a showcase  game like the Super Bowl.

            Speaking of penalty calls in the game, when the 4^th quarter started, the Eagles had gained fewer yards on offense than they had gained as a result of penalties assessed to the Bucs.  The Eagles benefited from two pass interference calls of 35 yards or greater; so, it is a bit difficult to assert that the zebras stole the game from the hometown heroes.

Miami – 3 at Jax (47) [Game is in London]:  Recall what I said last week about the NFL shipping its bad games across the pond to the UK.  Well, once again the London Game is  the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The teams bring a combined record of 1-9 to the coin toss.  As the referee greets the captains, he may be wondering to himself what he did to piss off the suits in the NFL Front Office such that they assigned him and his crew to this dirtbag game.

Houston at Indy – 10 (43):  These are two enigmatic teams.  The Colts are 1-4 and if they win this game, they could well wake up on Monday morning and be only one game behind the Titans for first place in the AFC South.  Of course, the same applies to the 1-4 Texans but there is no real chance that the Texans could keep up that façade for the rest of the NFL season.

Green Bay – 5 at Chicago (44.5):  The Bears’ defense is for real; the Packers’ offense is for real.  When those units are on the field, this game will be interesting.  When the Bears have the ball … not so much.

KC – 6.5 at Washington (54.5):  I know it is early in the season, but I think this is a must-win game for the Chiefs.  The stats say these are the two worst defenses in the NFL as of this week.  If that is indeed the case, then you have to ask yourself the following question:

• Which offensive unit is better equipped to exploit the “bad defense” on the other side of the line of scrimmage?

I realize that the Chiefs’ offense has not been nearly the juggernaut that it has been in the past couple of seasons but barring a complete lack of contribution from Travis Kelce, I think you would have to lean heavily toward the Chiefs’ offensive unit as compared to the Football Team’s offense.  Having gone through all that logic and rational analysis, I will pass on making a selection against the spread here because neither team is reliable from week to week.  However, I do think that there will be “Points Galore” in the game; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

Minnesota – 1 at Carolina (45):  The spread is all over the place on this game.  As of this morning, I can find it as high as 2.5 points and as low as “Pick ‘em”.  Moreover, the line has been gyrating in that range for the entire week.  My guess is that the ebb and flow have to do with the rumors about the availability of Christian McCaffrey for the game.  Not having any inside sources to let me know if he can make a go of it, I’ll just check the score on my sports app and think about other things.

Chargers at Baltimore – 2.5 (51):  Both QBs in this game are deservedly in the discussion for NFL MVP as of the early part of the 2021 season.  I am not sure that the Ravens are the better team here, but I am confident that the Ravens will enjoy a robust home field advantage.  I am tempted to take the OVER – – but not enough to give in to that temptation.

Cincy – 3 at Detroit (46.5):  Joe Burrow is designated as healthy enough to play this week; the Bengals fought toe-to-toe with the Packers last week; the Bengals’ defense is good – not great.  The Lions are “scrappy” which is a polite way of saying they are “crappy”, but we do not wish to be insulting.  I like the Bengals to roll here and win comfortably even on the road; I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Rams – 9 at Giants (48.5):  I do not know if Daniel Jones can play in this game – and I am not sure the Giants’ coaching staff knows for sure either.  If he can play and play normally, this game will be close because the Rams’ defense has been spotty this year and because this is a body clock game for the Rams.  My suspicion is that Jones will  play but will not play to his potential due to “brain fog” from the blow to the head he took last week.  There are too many loose ends here to make a selection in the game…

Arizona at Cleveland – 3 (49):  Clearly, this is the Game of the Week.  The Cards are the last remining undefeated team in the NFL and the Browns are 3-2 putting them a game behind the division-leading Ravens.  These are two good teams, and this is a game that is meaningful to both of them.

Las Vegas at Denver – 3.5 (44):  The “Ghost of Gruden’s Past” lingers over this game.  What level of energy/imperative will the new team hierarchy bring to the sidelines?  Just move on and find another game to put your hard-earned money down on…

Dallas – 3.5 at New England (51):  Any questions about Dak Prescott’s ankle injury and/or about his putative shoulder problems from training camp have to be put aside by now.  When he is in the game, the Cowboys are “in the game”.  The Pats show signs of life, but I do not think they are nearly as ready for prime time as they were a couple of years ago.

(Sun Nite) Seattle at Pittsburgh – 5 (43):  I am on record that I believe Ben Roethlisberger is in the end stage of his career and that he is no longer the same QB that will eventually get inducted into the Hall of Fame.  I continue to believe that; AND I also believe that the diminished Ben Roethlisberger that will take the field on Sunday night is still a better QB than Geno Smith who will start for the Seahawks because Russell Wilson cannot.  Oh, and the Steelers’ defense is better than the Seahawks’ defense too.  I like the Steelers to win and cover at home; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Mon Nite) Buffalo – 5.5 at Tennessee (54):  Were it not for the Cards/Browns game, this would have been my Game of the Week.  The Titans will be primed at home for this game so I will avoid making a selection here – – but I really do like the way the Bills have been playing for the last couple of weeks.

So, let me summarize this week’s Six-Pack:

1. Michigan St. – 4 over Indiana
2. Rutgers – 2 over Northwestern
3. TCU/Oklahoma OVER 63
4. Chiefs/Football Team OVER 54.5
5. Bengals – 3 over Lions
6. Steelers – 5 over Seahawks

            Finally, this week is the start of NFL Bye Weeks that will persist for the next 8 weeks.  Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle is not a fan of BYE Weeks to put it mildly. Here is his assessment of BYE Weeks:

“The worst idea since sliced bread, sliced the long way.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is the day to take a moment and remember Broderick Crawford…

The MLB playoffs are set; it went down to the wire.  Tomorrow is single elimination day; the winners of tomorrow’s two wildcard games play on, and the loser gets an early start on the offseason.  It is the MLB equivalent of March Madness in October.  The games tomorrow are:

• Yankees at Red Sox – – telecast on ESPN
• Cardinals at Dodgers – – telecast on TBS.

The wildcard winners will then face the team in each league with the best regular season record.  So, the bracket will look like this in the AL:

• Wildcard winner vs Rays
• White Sox vs Astros

Meanwhile in the NL, the bracket is:

• Wildcard winner vs Giants
• Brewers vs Braves

If the World Series eventually goes to 7 games, the last MLB game of the year will happen on November 3.  One way to avoid having World Series games played in near-freezing condition would be to have the World Series involve the Tampa Bay Rays and the LA Dodgers.  Just because that seems like a good thing to root for, that will be my hope for the World Series matchup.

While on the subject of baseball, I ran across this item from Gregg Drinnan’s blog, Taking Note:

“If you are an MLB fan of a certain age, take a moment or two to think about this note from Elias Sports Bureau: ‘No pitcher in the American League will hit 200 innings this season and there are currently only 13 qualifiers for the AL ERA title. There has never been a full season in which a league did not have a 200-inning pitcher.’ . . . RHP Ferguson Jenkins, a hall of famer who also is Canadian, threw more than 200 innings in 12 seasons, topping 300 in five of those. Yes, those days are long gone.”

One more baseball note if you please…  I went to check the “almost final” numbers for the number of MLB players who spent time on the Injured List this year and how much money they earned while in that status.  As of October 1^st, here are the data:

• In total, 823 players spent time on the IL.
• Of those players, 481 were pitchers (58.4% of the total).
• The number of man-days missed by players on the IL was 46,910.
• Those players earned a total of $817,313,884.  [That’s a lot of cheese.]
• Justin Verlander missed the entire season and earned the most money of any player on the IL.  Verlander collected $32M and change.
• Ten players – including Verlander – collected $10M or more while on the IL.

Yesterday saw a first in the history of the NFL.  When the Chiefs beat the Eagles, Andy Reid became the first head coach ever to amass 100 or more wins with two different teams.  Reid had 140 wins with the Eagles and Sunday gave him his 100^th victory as the head coach of the Chiefs.  Somehow it seems fitting that win came over his former team – – the Eagles.

Believe it or not, the NBA teams have reported to training camp and Exhibition Games are starting up.  Here are three narratives/storylines I have already heard more about than I need to hear:

1. I do not care how the Ben Simmons/Sixers divorce/rapprochement is ultimately resolved – – but can it please happen sometime soon.  This story ran out of even marginally interesting twists about a month ago.
2. Let me say the same thing here about John Wall and his desire to be traded from the Rockets.  Please make that happen this week or kill the idea entirely before the story takes root.  There is a parallel between the Wall and Simmons situations.  Both involve point guards who have never won anything important who are intruding their personal wishes on sports fans.  Get over this, please.
3. The Brooklyn Nets have a “Big Three” that makes them title hopefuls.  But one of the three is Kyrie Irving who is – evidently – not vaxxed and has not indicated that he is going to be vaxxed.  The problem for him and the Nets is that in NYC he would not be allowed to play in an indoor venue if he remains unvaxxed and the Nets have 41 home games and a couple of games against the Knicks and some games against the Raptors – you need to be vaxxed to enter Canada.  So, Irving could be “unavailable” (the NBA term of art is “healthy scratch”) for more than half of the games this year.

• Memo to NBA Writers and Sports Editors:  The only real news here is an announcement by Kyrie Irving that he is now vaccinated.  Until and unless you can report that fact, there is nothing new here.  Please ignore it.

Finally, Franz Kafka’s writings were full of situations involving alienation and absurdity; those qualities might well be summed up in one of his observations:

“The meaning of life is that it stops.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports…

 

 

These rants will go on hiatus for the rest of this week while I attend to some travel and family matters.  My plan is to be back on the air next Monday, June 28^th.

Until then, stay safe and stay well everyone…

 

 

We do not engage in April Fool pranks here.  The sportswriting standard for such things has been set beyond the creative levels achievable here; George Plimpton’s article in Sports Illustrated in 1985 about the Mets’ rookie phenom Sidd Finch has never been approached let alone topped.  If you are too young to know about Sidd Finch, Google will enlighten you…

My educational career and my professional career were centered on the physical sciences.  Nonetheless, here in Curmudgeon Central, the findings and the definitions of astronomy do not hold sway when it comes to the seasons of the year.  Neither do the feelgood stories of folklore prevail when it comes to my anticipation of Spring.  Let me be clear:

• Punxsutawney Phil can wake up or drop dead on 2 February as far as I am concerned when it comes to the anticipation of Spring.  Here in Curmudgeon Central the single determinant of an imminent Spring is when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.
• I know all about the vernal equinox and when it happens – – but Spring really starts on Opening Day of the MLB season.  And in 2021, that day is today!

So, today’s rant will be devoted entirely to baseball and the upcoming season.  It is a day of renewal that we were denied last year…

In the 2020 truncated season, MLB existed with more than a handful of “special rules”; some of them will be carried over into 2021; some others will be sent to the minor leagues on an “experimental basis”.  So, here is some of what we can expect in the 2021 season:

• Last year, the DH was used in all MLB games.  This year, that practice will revert to previous times; the DH will be used in AL games and in interleague games played in AL stadiums.  That’s all…  [I hate the DH, so I like this.]
• Last year, rosters were expanded to 30 players for a while and then shrunk to 28 players for a while before settling down to 26 players for the duration of the 60-game season.  This year, that roster expansion will go away; teams will have 26-man rosters in 2021 and will expand to 28 players when September arrives.  [I see no reason for roster expansion in 2021.]
• Last year, double-headers presented 7-inning games nominally to minimize exposure of players/managers/umpires to one another.  That rule will carry forward to 2021.  [I do not like this rule but can live with it – – if the rule dries up and blows away in 2022 when there will hopefully be no pretense that it is “beneficial”.]
• Last year, MLB games that went to extra innings began each extra inning with a man on second base.  That rule will carry forward into 2021.  [I hate this rule; this is only better by a tiny margin than determining the winner of an extra inning game by holding a Home Run Derby contest between the two teams.  Yuck!]
• Last year, MLB “contracted” the minor leagues eliminating about 40 teams that had affiliations with MLB teams.  The minor leagues have been re-shuffled and fans in lots of towns/small cities now have a much dimmer view of MLB than they did two years ago – – but the owners think they know what they are doing.  On a positive note, MLB is going to use minor league baseball games to test some potential rule changes for the future.  That may not be a perfect situation, but it is methodical and rational.
• In Triple A minor league games, they will use larger bases.  Instead of the bases that are 15 inches on a side, the games in Triple A baseball will use bases 18 inches on a side.  The idea is that this will encourage more base stealing attempts which might add some action/excitement to more games. [This rule change is one of “wait and see” for me.  I am neither excited about it nor opposed to it.]
• In Double A minor league games, they will impose a limit on “The Shift”.  For Double A games, the team in the field “must have a minimum of four players on the infield, each of whom must have both feet completely in front of the outer boundary of the infield dirt.”  MLB has also signaled that if this rule increases the number of base hits/runners on the bases, it may then be expanded to “require two infielders to be positioned entirely on each side of second base” later in the Double A season.  [I am of two minds here.  MLB needs more in-game action involving baserunners and base hits; MLB also should not reward hitters who cannot figure out how to get on base against a shift that opens half the infield to them.]
• In Single A games (High-A to be specific) pitchers will be required to “disengage the rubber prior to throwing to any base, with the penalty of a balk in the event the pitcher fails to comply.”  This is another rule modification that might increase stolen base attempts – – but I am not sure how it will achieve that end.  [I guess this can’t hurt but I do not see any huge benefit either.]
• In Single A games (Low-A to be specific) MLB will experiment with robot umpires to call balls and strikes.  [This is worth a try since human umpires simply will not call the strike zone that is in the rule book that the umpires are there to enforce.]  AND in Single A games, pitchers will be limited to two “step offs” and or “pickoff attempts” per plate appearance.  Obviously, this also relates to a desire to increase stolen base attempts and to speeding up games.  [I do not know if I like this or not; let me get back to you on this one.]

`           In addition to these codified rule changes/ rule adoptions for 2021, MLB is also going to try to “crack down” on pitchers doctoring baseballs.  The focus is supposed to be that they will be strict about pitchers using “foreign substances” as a way for them to enhance “pitch movement”.  In addition to getting umpires focused on this issue – – which umpires have fundamentally ignored for about 100 years or so – – MLB will be using stats on things like spin rate for pitches and relying on “Gameday Compliance Monitors” that will keep tabs on players not in the open dugout who might be involved in getting foreign substances onto baseballs that will find their way into games.  These Compliance Monitors are sort of like MLB’s version of the Safety Patrol many of us encountered in our elementary school days; they are going to be the ones who sound the alarm if there is a violation of the rules…  Pardon me while I snicker.

Last year, there was no live attendance at games on “Opening Day” which did not happen in the Spring as interpreted by Curmudgeon Central or any knowledgeable astronomer.  In fact, there were no fans in stadiums until the playoffs began in October.  This year, various sites will be hosting fans in the stands on Opening Day.  Things vary from city to city based on the orders of State Governors around the country.  Here are two comments from Bob Molinaro of the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot to give you an idea of the state of play:

“In wide-open Texas, the Rangers are planning for a full house at Globe Life Field for opening day, with masks required for all fans except when eating or drinking. Who isn’t always eating or drinking at a baseball game? The Rangers will go to reduced capacity with social distancing for subsequent games. So a full house is fine to start, but not so much later? Follow that? Because I can’t.”

And …

“Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced that sports venues will be allowed to open in his state at 50% capacity. Judging from the Baltimore Orioles’ 2019 attendance figures, this is about 30% more than what’s needed at Camden Yards.”

Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times had another view of the restrictions – or lack thereof – on stadium attendance in Texas:

“Gov. Greg Abbott has lifted all COVID-19 restrictions in the Lone Star State, meaning the Texas Rangers’ home opener might be a sellout.

“The rules there are now so lenient that even catcher’s masks aren’t mandatory.”

Everything that precedes this point in the rant simply must take a backseat to the fact that MLB is going to begin “when it is supposed to begin”.  There are no “gimmick starts” in Japan or anywhere else; MLB will start on time, all at once, as it should be.  Importantly, every fan of every MLB team needs to recognize this unassailable truth:

• As of this morning, every MLB team has a “Magic Number” of 162 to win their division.  Hope springs eternal – – in the Spring when baseball starts…

Now, before I get to my swami-like predictions for the upcoming season, let me suggest 4 storylines that I need not hear about any more as the 2021 season unfolds:

1. I am more than merely tired of former players who lament the state of the game today.  Enough already!  If you do not like baseball anymore, please find something else to do with your time and then have the decency and grace not to tell us what that new thing is.  I too liked “old-time baseball” with its 2-hour games and lots of .300 hitters.  The fact of today is that baseball is a different game now and if you do not like it, please have the grace to let those of us who do enjoy ourselves.
2. Let it be that the truncated 2020 season has put an exclamation point on repeated references to the “sign stealing scandal” in Houston.  It happened; it was shameful; it should never happen again – – although we know it will – -; we all agree on all of that.  Now can we move on please?
3. I am way beyond tired of players getting a giant case of the red-ass when other players “show them up”.  If a pitcher does not want to see a hitter slow-trot around the bases after a home run, don’t give up a home run.  If a batter does not want to hear a pitcher yell at  him after a strike out, hit the damned ball.  MLB players are chronological – – and nominal – – adults.  Is it too much to ask of them to act like an adult?
4. The MLB replay system is a major impediment to pace of play and more than an annoyance to fans.  Every close play in a game results in the manager checking with his “eyes in the sky” about challenging the play or not.  Meanwhile players stall to give him the time he needs to get that “intel”.  The entire replay system – – and even the idea of using replay at all – – needs a thorough re-examination by all the folks associated with MLB, the MLBPA and the MLB Umpires Association.

Because it is not yet clear how MLB will structure its playoffs this year – – will it be the expanded version with 16 teams as it was in 2020 or will it revert to 10 teams as it has been in the recent past? – – I will not even try to structure the playoffs here.  Nonetheless, here are my prognostications for the 2021 MLB regular season:

• AL East:  The Yankees are the best team here by a comfortable margin- – unless Gerritt Cole and another starter get hurt.  Will the Rays be able to keep up with the Yankees over a 162-game schedule?  I don’t think so.  The Blue Jays improved over the winter significantly and should seriously contend for a wildcard slot.  Heck, if the Yankees suffer a lot of injuries, the Jays just might come on and win the Division.  Who knows what the Red Sox are doing with their roster over the past couple of years?  Other than JD Martinez, no one in that line-up is “scary”.  Just pretend the Orioles are not there and spend the year wondering why they have not been relegated to the minor leagues.
• AL Central:    Losing Eloy Jimenez for the season prevents the White Sox from being the odds-on favorites in the Division.  Which version of the Twins will show up this year; the run scoring machine from 2019 or the ho-hum team from 2020?  The Indians pitching staff is solid, but they may struggle to score.  Both the Royals and the Tigers look to be over-matched here.
• AL West:  The Astros lost George Springer in free agency over the winter and that cannot help the team.  But I still think they have the best team top to bottom in their Division.  Maybe the A’s can make the Astros sweat it out a bit, but I doubt it.  Maybe this is the year that the Angels break through and get a wild-card slot in the playoffs?  Or will Mike Trout win the MVP (for the 4^th time) and be home in October?  The Mariners, and the Rangers are merely along for the ride in this Division.
• NL East:  The Braves are young and very good – – assuming their starting pitching remains intact.  The Mets got a lot better over the winter acquiring Francisco Lindor.  [Aside:  The loss of Robinson Cano to a 162-game suspension for PEDs might be a blessing in disguise for the Mets.]  The Nats’ starting pitching with Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin at the top of the rotation is formidable.  The Marlins were a surprise last year; lightening is not going to strike twice in the NL East in 2021.  The Phillies’ bullpen let them down a lot last year; they made changes there but how significant those changes are remains a mystery.
• NL Central:  The Cardinals got a lot better when they acquired Nolan Arenado; the question in St. Louis is the starting pitching.  If everything breaks right for either the Cubs or the Brewers, they could make things interesting here – – but it is difficult to see how all that happens.  The Reds will be better this year than in recent years, but they are also-rans.  Let us not even think about the Pirates; their season in 2021 might give tanking a bad name.  Ke’Bryan Hayes is the Pirates’ rookie third baseman and they offered him an extended contract before he played a full season at the MLB level; he turned it down.  So, he is a good player and a smart player too…
• NL West:  There is a two-team race in this Division – – the Dodgers and the Padres just might be the two best teams on paper in all of MLB for this year.  The Dodgers are solid at the plate, on the mound and in reserve.  The Padres have Tatis and Machado as a one-two punch plus a solid starting rotation.  The Giants, D-Backs and Rockies are playing for third place here.

Of course, here in Curmudgeon Central there is always an eye for failure or the potential for failure.  So as things get underway for the 2021 season, an important question here is this:

• Can there be an epically bad team this year?

I doubt that any MLB team will ever sink below the level of incompetence shown by the Cleveland Spiders in 1899.  That team posted a record of 20-134 which is a win percentage of .130.  There were some roster shenanigans associated with that team that would not be tolerated today, so I will ignore that level of ineptitude.

MLB went from a 154-game season to a 162-game season in 1961.  Other than last year, that has been the modus vivendi MLB for the last 60 years.  So, over that span, here are the worst records (with win percentages) posted by teams:

• Mets (1962): 40-120 (.250)
• Tigers (2003): 43-119 (.265)
• Orioles (2018): 47-115 (.290)
• Tigers (2019): 47-114 (.292)

Note that two of the four worst records since MLB went to 162 games per season happened in the last two full seasons of MLB.  Moreover, the Tigers and the Orioles who only won 47 games in their seasons of ignominy do not appear to have made significant changes since they stunk out the joint in recent seasons.  But wait, there’s more…

The Pirates have traded away or bought out a bunch of players and the projected salary for the 26-man roster on Opening Day is $41.7M according to Spotrac.com.  The AVERAGE projected salary for a 26-man roster on Opening Day for MLB in 2021 is $120.5M.  I know that Pittsburgh is a small market; nonetheless, it appears as if the team is not even going to try and be competitive in 2021.  Baseball fans in Pittsburgh need to circle September 6,7,and 8 on their calendars:

• The Steelers’ season will not have started yet.
• The Pirates are at home hosting the Tigers for a 3-game series.
• Both teams could be vying for the worst record in MLB for the season.
• Both teams could appear on the list of futility above after 2021.
• Tix will not be hard to come by for these games…

Finally, here is one more observation by Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times regarding various moves by MLB teams in the off-season:

“And, in news about free agents, the Blue Jays signed George Springer, the Phillies signed J.T. Realmuto and the Royals slammed the door on Prince Harry’s possible return.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This is certainly not the place where one finds liturgical or theological enlightenment.  Nonetheless, this is the day of the year that might be termed the “Day of Wrath” (from Dies Irae) because this is the day following Selection Sunday.  Maybe we should name it the Monday of Mourning?  The main focus of the sports world today is a non-issue; far too much attention is paid to the teams that were snubbed by the Selection Committee and left out of the basketball tournament.  Big deal!  The team considered to be 69^th in the country and left out of the tournament field was not going to win the tournament anyway.

You will not find me weeping and gnashing my teeth over such nonsense.  Rather, I prefer to focus on the fact that the NCAA is going to try to pull off a full tournament field of 68 teams in a semi-bubbled environment in Indianapolis.  It will not be easy; and if it goes off without any sort of disruption, it will be a huge surprise.  Given the number of teams that had to interrupt their regular season schedules to accommodate COVID-19 infections, the odds of seeing 67 games go on without incident are not good.

One sort of positive thing to come out of this regular season is that players and coaches had to learn to adapt on the fly to new situations.  There were so many game cancellations and “schedule adjustments” that the normal regimented and orderly progression of a season was never maintained.  Maybe that can be a long-term benefit for many of these players in life…

The so-called mid-majors of college basketball may well have been disproportionately disadvantaged by all of the “schedule adjustments”.  The paucity of interconference games this year did not give some of the smaller basketball schools a chance to play a game or two against the basketball bluebloods; that deprived those smaller schools the opportunity to demonstrate their potential to be competitive at a higher level.  That circumstance did not come about through malicious intent – – unless you want to ascribe that intent to the coronavirus.

A positive thing to watch for in the tournament this year is Gonzaga’s quest to finish the season with a tournament championship plus an undefeated season.  The Zags are 26-0 in the regular season; they need to win 6 more games for a perfect season.  The last team to finish a regular season undefeated and then to cap it off with a tournament championship was Indiana in 1976.  Since then, three teams have arrived at the tournament with unblemished records but have lost in the tournament.  Those were:

• 1979 – – Indiana State lost in the Final Game
• 1991 – – UNLV lost in the Final Four round
• 2015 – – Kentucky lost in the Final Four round

Bob Molinaro had an interesting take on Gonzaga’s quest this year in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Over: The abrupt end to Duke’s slim postseason hopes has a negligible national impact, but all hell would break loose within the sport if a positive test derailed Gonzaga or another serious contender. It gives new meaning to ‘survive and advance.’”

[Aside:  How many “bracketologists” back in December prognosticated that both Duke and Kentucky would fail to make the tournament?  Let that demonstrate the value of such soothsaying…]

For what it is worth, Rick Pitino’s Iona team is in the tournament this year; this is the fifth school he has led to the NCAA tournament.  Rick Pitino may not be the perfect role model for your kids, but he can coach basketball teams.

What I like to do with the tournament brackets is to have some fun with team mascots and players’ names.  Even in years when there is regularity, I do not have a great track record for picking brackets; so, I find other ways to amuse myself while waiting for the games to begin.  For example:

• We could have two Final Four games that are ‘Predator versus Prey”.  You could have the Michigan Wolverines against the Creighton Blue Jays and the Villanova Wildcats against the Oregon State Beavers.
• In Round 1, we have a game between the Ramblers (Loyola-Chicago) and the Ramblin’ Wreck (Georgia Tech).
• We might see a “reptilian” final game should it come down to the Maryland Terrapins and the Drexel Dragons.
• We could have a second-round game between Oklahoma St. (OSU) and Oregon State (OSU).  Moreover, one of those schools might possibly make it to the Final Four where it could face Ohio St. (OSU).
• The Final Game could be a contest between ethnic mascots – – the San Diego St. Aztecs versus the Iona Gaels.
• An Elite Eight game could pair the Michigan St. Spartans against the UNC-Greensboro Spartans.
• Perhaps the Final Game will be completely ursine matching the Baylor Bears and the UCLA Bruins.

In addition to mascot pairings, there are plenty of potential intrastate rivalry games to happen in the tournament.

• Florida and Florida St. could meet in the Final Game.
• Michigan and Michigan St. could meet in the Elite Eight.
• Ohio and Ohio St. could meet in the Final Game.
• Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. could meet in the Final Game.
• Oregon and Oregon St. could meet in the Final Game.
• Virginia and VCU could meet in the Elite Eight.
• Virginia and Va Tech could meet in the Final Game.

Player names have always been a part of my pre-tournament musings.  This year I will consider All-Tournament Teams made up of players based solely on the way their names fit into categories that I have concocted in my head.  This is just for fun.  Let me begin with players that have what I call Mirror-Image Names – you can reverse the order of their names and it still sounds like a player name:

• Bryan Antoine – – Villanova
• Carson Barrett – – Purdue
• Keller Casey – – Oklahoma
• Brandon Cyrus – – UC-Santa Barbara
• Tytist Dean – – Liberty
• Kent Gilbert – – Tennessee
• Ben Gregg – – Gonzaga
• Donovan Gregory – – Appalachian St.
• Blake Henry – – Colgate
• Jace Howard – – Michigan
• Jehloni James – – Georgia Tech
• Trey James – – Iona
• Jarod Lucas – – Oregon St.
• Chase Martin – – Purdue
• Cody Riley – – UCLA
• Demetrius Terry – – Cleveland St.
• Jalen Terry – – Oregon
• Aiden Terry – – Rutgers
• Cameron Thomas – – LSU

My next All Tournament Team is the Artist’s Palette Team:

• Leaky Black – – UNC
• Eugene Brown III – – Ohio St.
• Gabe Brown – – Michigan St.
• Greg Brown – – Texas
• Kobe Brown – – Missouri
• Xavion Brown – – Appalachian St.
• A.J. Gray – – Hartford
• Josh Gray – – LSU
• Raiquan Gray – – Florida State
• Bryant Greene – – Appalachian St.
• Tarik Silver – – Oregon St.
• Fabian White, Jr. – – Houston
• Isaiah White – – USC
• Jalen White – – Ohio

[Aside:  With five players named “Brown” here, it is a shame that Brown University is not in the tournament field this year.]

Next up is an All-Tournament team where player names have a Biblical Connotation:

• Immanuel Allen – – Abilene Christian
• Noah Baumann – – USC
• Christian Bishop – – Creighton
• Moses Flowers – – Hartford
• Weston Church – – Oklahoma St.
• Gideon George – – BYU
• Jonah Jackson – – Drake
• Isaac Likekele – – Oklahoma St.
• Noah Locke – – Florida
• Elijah Lufile – – Oral Roberts
• Isaiah Miller – – UNC-Greensboro
• Joshua Morgan – – USC
• Micah Peavy – – Texas Tech
• Ismael Plet – – Oral Roberts
• Malachi Rice – – Georgia Tech
• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl – – Villanova
• Samson Ruzhentsev – – Florida
• Jericho Sims – – Texas
• Moses Wright – – Georgia Tech

I always look for players with Alliterative Names.  This year, using names and schools, I found several “Trifectas” where the alliteration has three components.  I am still in search of a “Grand-slam alliteration” such as Tom Terrific from Texas Tech.  Maybe next year…

• Akok Akok – – UConn
• Angelo Allegri – – UNC Greensboro
• Alphonso Anderson – – Utah St.
• Avery Anderson III – – Oklahoma St.
• Adonis Arms – – Winthrop
• Aguek Arop – – San Deigo St.
• Austin Ash – – Iowa
• Buddy Boeheim – – Syracuse
• Bryceson Burns – – Drake
• Colton Cashaw – – Iona
• Colin Castleton – – Florida
• Cade Cunningham – – Oklahoma St.
• Deven Dahlke – – Drake – – Trifecta !
• Dain Dainja – – Baylor
• Damien Daniels – – Abilene Christian
• Davonte Davis – – Arkansas
• Devin Davis – – Creighton
• Darius Days – – LSU
• Dexter Dennis – – Wichita St.
• David Didenko – – Georgia Tech
• Drake Dobbs – Liberty
• Ferron Flavors, Jr. – – Oklahoma St.
• Gage Gomez – – UC-Santa Barbara
• Hakim Hart – – Maryland
• Kolton Kohl – – Abilene Christian
• Jalen Jackson – – North Texas
• Jaime Jaquez, Jr. – – UCLA – – Trifecta !
• Josiah-Jordan James – – Tennessee – –  Trifecta !
• Jason Jitoboh – – Florida
• John Jones – – Texas Southern
• Johnny Juzang – – UCLA
• Kuba Karwowski – – Utah St.
• Liam Lloyd – – Grand Canyon
• Mawot Mag – – Rutgers
• Marten Maide – – Liberty
• Montez Mathis – – Rutgers
• Mardrez McBride – – North Texas
• Mac McClung – – Texas Tech
• Mason McMurray – – Ohio
• Michael Meadows – – Eastern Washington
• Mahki Morris – – Abilene Christian
• Pearson Parker – – Colgate
• Reggie Raynor – – UNC Greensboro
• Sheldon Stevens – – Oral Roberts
• Townsend Triple – – BYU

I can concoct an All-Tournament Team with namesakes of US Presidents:

• Bryson Bush – – Wichita St.
• Jonathan Jackson – – Liberty
• Tray Jackson – – Seton Hall
• Damien Jefferson – – Creighton
• Jalen Jefferson – – Mount Saint Mary’s
• Malik Jefferson – – Mount Saint Mary’s
• Meechie Johnson, Jr.  Ohio St.
• Britton Johnson – – Alabama
• Jayden Nixon – – Virginia
• Rico Ozuna-Harrison – – Michigan
• Coletrane Washington – – Drexel
• Duane Washington Jr. – – Ohio St.

People go to college to prepare themselves for careers in life.  Here are some players in this year’s tournament where I wonder if their name indicates what they will do with the rest of their lives:

• Geo Baker – – Rutgers – – Pastry chef
• Adrian Baldwin, Jr. – – VCU – – Piano tuner
• Chudier Bile – – Georgetown – – Liver transplant surgeon
• Andre Bottoms – – Norfolk St. – – Scuba instructor
• Jalen Bridges – – W. Virginia – – Civil engineer
• Drew Buggs – – Missouri – – Entomologist
• DJ Burns, Jr. – – Winthrop – – Firefighter
• Nate Buss – – Winthrop – – Transportation specialist
• Lamont Butler – – San Diego St. – – Obviously…
• Jett Canfield – – Creighton – – Pilot
• Kofi Cockburn – – Illinois – – Barista
• Aaron Cook – – Gonzaga – – Celebrity chef
• Adrian Delph – – Appalachian St. – – Oracle?
• Abe Eagle – – Gonzaga – – Boy Scout Leader
• Aleem Ford – – Wisconsin – – New car sales
• Justin Forrest – – Appalachian St. – – Sawmill foreman
• Javion Hamlet – – North Texas – – Actor
• Royce Hamm, Jr. – – Texas – – Abattoir foreman
• Luke House – – Drexel – – Architect
• Kaleb Hunter – – UNC Greensboro – – Anything but a gatherer
• Julius Marble II – – Michigan St. – – Sculptor
• Miles McBride – – W. Virginia – – Wedding photographer
• Takal Molson – – Seton Hall – – Brewer
• Moses Moody – – Arkansas – – Bond trader
• Andrew Muse – – Appalachian St. – – Poet
• Justyn Mutts – – Va Tech – – Dog breeder
• Woody Newton – – Syracuse – – Carpenter
• Nana Opoku – – Mount Saint Mary’s – – Childcare specialist
• Eli Parquet – – Colorado – – Flooring installer
• Omar Payne – – Florida – – Chiropractor
• Jamorko Pickett – – Georgetown – – Fence installer
• Abel Porter – – Ohio St. – – Too easy…!
• Micah Potter – – Wisconsin – – Too easy again …!
• Joey Potts – – Oregon St. – – Chef
• Keegan Records – – Colgate – – Statistician
• Colton Reed – – Liberty – – Oboist
• Mason Robbins – – Oklahoma St. – – Bricklayer
• Brandon Slater – – Villanova – – Roofer
• Javonte Smart – – LSU – – Professor
• Camerohn Steele – – Abilene Christian – – Metallurgist
• Jayden Stone – – Grand Canyon – – Geologist
• Read Streller – – Oklahoma – – Librarian
• Seth Towns – – Ohio St. – – Urban planner?
• Sam Towns – – Oho – – Cartographer?
• Tyler Underwood – – Illinois – – Typewriter repairman
• Jordan Usher – – Georgia Tech – – Obviously …
• Franz Wagner – – Michigan – – Composer
• Rocket Watts – – Michigan St. – – NASA engineer
• Deshang Weaver – – Oral Roberts – – Fashion designer
• Tom Welch – – Loyola Chicago – – Jelly maker

I also like to create a Copy Editors’ Nightmare Team.  It can also be a challenge for play-by-play broadcasters too:

• Ochai Agbaji – – Kansas
• Chibuzo Agbo – – Texas Tech
• Max Agbonkpolo – – USC
• Warith Alatishe – – Oregon St.
• Rati Andronikashvili – – Creighton
• Martynas Arlauskas – – Gonzaga
• Giorgi Bezhanishvili – – Illinois
• Nyzaiah Chambers – – Norfolk St.
• Damian Chong Qui – – Mount Saint Mary’s
• Okay Djamgouz – – Drake
• Ayo Dosunmu – – Illinois
• Victor Iwuakor – – Oklahoma
• Abayomi Iyiola – – Arkansas
• Efstratios Kalogerias – – Norfolk St.
• Modestas Kancleris – – Creighton
• Balsa Koprivica – – Florida St.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili – – Seton Hall
• Asbjørn Midtgaard – – Grand Canyon
• Emeka Obukwelu – – Arkansas
• Eugene Omoruyi – – Oregon
• Osayi Osifo – – Florida
• Osun Osunniyi – – St. Bonaventure
• Victor Radocaj – – Eastern Washington
• Yahuza Rasas – – Texas Southern
• Ryan Tankelewicz – – UNC Greensboro
• Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua – – Baylor
• Aher Uguak – – Loyola-Chicago
• Paxson Wojcik – – Loyola-Chicago
• Szymon Zapala – – Utah St.

I found five names in my looking around that are interesting – – but do not fit on tournament teams.  So, I will just list them here:

1. Dajuan Harris, Jr. is a guard on the Kansas team.  Too bad he is not a twin; if he were, his brother could have been named “Da-udda-juan”.
2. The Drexel coach is named Zach Spiker.  How is he not the volleyball coach?
3. The Oregon St. coach is named Wayne Tinkle.  Moving on…
4. Tony Perkins is on the Iowa team.  I thought I saw him in the movies…
5. Reggie Miller is on the Abilene Christian team.  I did not realize he had any NCAA eligibility left…

Finally, let me close with a tournament overview by Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times :

“Virginia joined Duke on the sideline at the ACC basketball tournament after a positive COVID-19 test, and Kansas is similarly out of the Big 12 tourney.

“So can we just end the suspense early and proclaim the virus as this year’s national champion?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I have no intention of going all meteorological on  you today, but here in the DC area we got some freezing rain/ice as precipitation about 3:00 AM last night; it is continuing in that mode as I write this and then some snow is forecast on top of that frozen mess for the rest of the day.  The sky is fully covered in clouds at about 1000 feet of elevation.  If ever a day oozed “dreariness”, it would be today in the DC area.

Nonetheless, there is a way for me to look over, under around and through this mess to see something much more pleasant and alluring.  No, I am not auditioning for the male lead in a remake of the silent movie, Little Mary Sunshine; I am simply acknowledging that this is the time of year when pitchers and catchers begin to report to Spring Training sites.  That means baseball is coming and baseball means this sort of dreary weather is on the wane.

That good news is compounded by the fact that Spring Training is going to happen “on time” this year.  It was not long ago that there was some doubt about the timing there; MLB wanted to delay the opening of Spring Training camps for about a month for “pandemic-related” reasons; the players’ union refused to accept that, and the legalese of the CBA resolved that head-butting exercise.  And in that last phrase, you can find the germ of future strife in this dimension.

Lest you think I am being dramatic, consider this one seemingly minor episode:

• About two weeks ago, MLB scheduled a call with Federal officials to get the latest information and projections about COVID-19 and its spread and vaccine availability and reasonable protocols and – – you get the idea.
• The players’ union was invited to participate in the call.
• The union refused and set up a call of its own with Federal officials on the same subjects.

Recall that the current CBA expires after this season concludes and there needs to be cooperation to get to a new CBA.  Just reviewing the behaviors with regard to gathering COVID-19 related information from Federal officials, I would say these sides are behaving more like middle school kids involved in a feud than they are rational adults.  What baseball as a sport needs here is pragmatism – – and if there is any of that stuff lying around in the sport, it is surely keeping a low profile.

The so-called “elephant in the room” for MLB is that there are some systemic problems in the game that threaten the economic foundations of the game itself.  Those systemic problems may create bad news and rougher times for the billionaire owners and for the millionaire players.  Moreover, the best way to exacerbate those systemic problems is for the owners and the players to continue to turn marginally important issues into the latter-day equivalent of Custer’s Last Stand.

The 2021 season will be 162 games long – – assuming no massive return of COVID-19 between now and October.  When there are doubleheaders, the games will be 7 innings long and the “runner on second” to start extra innings will return for an encore.  [Aside:  For the record, I do not like either rule but their inclusion in the 2021 season is not sufficiently horrible that I would oppose them to the death.]  In addition, the DH will only be applicable for AL games or interleague games in AL parks.  MLB offered to keep the universal DH in place for 2021 in exchange for the union’s agreement to continue the expanded playoffs from last year.  When the union refused to agree to that, MLB took the universal DH off the table.  [Aside:  For the record, I hate the DH and I hate expanding the playoffs as MLB did last year.  Nonetheless, the absence of an ability to find a way to agree to compromise here is something I hate even more.]

According to an AP report:

“The agreement (on how to conduct the 2021 season) includes more sophisticated contact tracing for COVID-19 that includes the use of technology, and more league rules on behavior to comply with coronavirus protocols.”

Pardon me for a moment of pessimism here; but given the lack of collegiality that exists between the owners and players now, I cannot help but think that “more league rules on behavior to comply with coronavirus protocols” just might spark some more ill will between now and the end of October.

There is going to be a fundamental difference in the conduct of Spring Training this year.  In previous years, teams would have a training camp for its most likely major leaguers and a separate camp of its minor league prospects.  Occasionally, one of the hot minor league prospects would be brought into the major league camp for a game or two to “check him out” against major league competition.  This year, the major league training camps can be as large as 75 players meaning the distinctions between the major camp and the minor camp can be blurred significantly.

That blurring will mean that teams will need to carefully manage the playing time available to young players and to veterans hoping to make a team as a utility player of a bench presence.  While it can be argued that such vigilance was always important, it takes on greater significance this year because of what happened last year.  There was no minor league baseball season last year; teams did not get to see their prospects wax or wane in 2020; the “book” on most minor league prospects has its most recent entries written in invisible ink.

The good news is that pitchers and catchers are reporting; that is a harbinger of Spring; I can think about that as I watch more freezing rain fall from the sky this morning.  The bad news is that baseball is not in a good labor/management place today and the document that keeps them from going at it tooth and nail expires in about 9 months.

Tomorrow, I will try to explain what I mean by “systemic problems” that threaten baseball for fans, owners and players.  Until then, let me close with a description of another annual Spring event from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Spring Break:  A week-long bacchanal that makes the reign of Caligula look like a scrapbooking party at the Red Hat Society.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

John Chaney died over the weekend at the age of 89.  He was the head basketball coach at Temple for next-to-forever and is most deservedly a part of the Naismith Hall of Fame.  Chaney was a charter member of the “Tough Love School” of coaching; he would not fit in well in today’s world of coaches being kinder and gentler that he was.  His teams played ferocious defense; he demanded that.  It would have been fun to watch one of his Temple teams play one of Bob Knight’s Indiana teams back in the day…

Rest in peace, John Chaney.

As I am sure you have heard/read, the Rams and Lions exchanged QBs over the weekend and the Lions got three draft picks in the process.  The rumors that the Rams’ coaching staff was not enamored with Jared Goff proved to be accurate; they shipped him off to the Lions – even under new management the Lions must be considered part of “NFL Purgatory” – and they tossed in two first round picks and a third-round pick.  It seems clear to me that the Rams believe they will be serious Super Bowl contenders next year with upgraded QB play from Matthew Stafford.

It is the “draft picks” part of this trade that I find interesting.  Most commentators place great value on two first round picks plus a third-round pick; they call it “draft capital”.  The Rams seem to be selling that “draft capital” short and the Rams have been doing that for a while now.  Assuming that they do not trade to acquire a first-round pick between now and the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams will have gone 7 consecutive years without a selection in the first round:

• 2017:  Traded this pick as part of the deal that got them Jared Goff in 2016.
• 2018:  Traded this pick to the Pats for Brandin Cooks.
• 2019:  Traded this pick to the Falcons to move down in the draft for lower round picks.
• 2020:  Traded this pick to the Jags for Jalen Ramsey
• 2021:  Traded this pick to the Jags for Jalen Ramsey too.
• 2022:  Traded this pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford.
• 2023:  Traded this pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford too.

I believe that “draft capital” is highly overrated.  The NFL Draft is a gamble and not an investment; “draft capital” is more akin to a “poker stake” in the NFL Draft shuffle.  I use poker as my analogy purposely because to win at poker you need a combination of luck and skill and that is exactly what you need to be successful in the NFL Draft.  The Rams now – – and 50  years ago under George Allen – have chosen to give up their position in the first round of the Draft in exchange for what they consider to be known talent entities.  If it works, watch lots of other teams try to copy that behavior; if it flops, the pundits will point to the Rams’ braintrust as a pack of naïfs.

Here is why I find the Draft to be interesting but not all that important.  Consider a Draft where there have been no trades and consider that each of the 32 teams would make the best selection available when it came their turn.  To make it simple, consider only the first two rounds for a moment:

• “Worst Team” has Pick 1 and Pick 33
• “Best Team” has Pick 32 and Pick 64

If each team is picking the best player every time, there is a marginal difference between the “Best Team” at Pick 32 and the “Worst Team” at Pick 33.  In terms of great improvement potential for the “Worst Team” the difference lies in the talent gap between Pick 1 and Pick 64.

However, the same conditions exist at the interface of every round of the Draft; the “Best Team” picking at 65 “evens out” the “Worst Team” picking at 64 and then at the end of the third round, the “Best Team” picking at 96 evens out the “Worst Team” picking at 97 and so it goes.  The net result of a “perfect Draft” of this type is that the big advantage for the “Worst Team” is that they get Pick 1 and the “Best Team” gets Pick 224.  Not exactly Earth-shattering…

The NFL Draft is interesting because the teams are NOT perfect in their selections.  Every team in the NFL passed on taking Tom Brady several times; the Niners traded up to get a kid from Mississippi Valley State University that few folks had ever heard of named Jerry Rice; in 1965, the Bears had back-to-back first round picks at #3 and #4 and they took Dick Butkus and Gayle Sayers with those picks.  [Aside:  The two players taken ahead of Butkus and Sayers in that Draft were Tucker Frederickson and Ken Willard.]

The trade that took place this weekend means that the Rams have their eyes on a Super Bowl appearance in the next year or three and are convinced that Matthew Stafford’s improved play at QB will be the impulse that gets them there.  Meanwhile, the Lions seem to recognize that they have a major rebuilding project in front of them – – as they seem to have had for the last 30-50 years – – and that they want to have more chances to strike it rich in the Draft poker game.

• Shuffle up and deal …

Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot two weeks ago:

“Inside info: Gamblers and other interested parties might have appreciated knowing beforehand that Drew Brees played out the season with a torn rotator cuff and torn fascia in his foot. This according to an Instagram post by wife Brittany Brees.”

To which I say:

• Are we sure that “gamblers and other interested parties” were in the dark here?

Finally, let me wish everyone here a Happy Virtual Groundhogs Day.  The normal pomp and circumstance associated with today has been replaced by a virtual ”ceremony” whereby the large ugly rodent makes his annual prediction on the arrival of Spring.  The pandemic strikes again…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

For the last 5 months, Friday rants were devoted to football as has been the custom here in Curmudgeon Central for years.  However, this particular Friday is always a deviation from that schedule because even in non-COVID seasons, there is no football of significance happening on this weekend.  I view the Pro Bowl – even when it is played – with even lower regard than I do the Exhibition Games that lead up to the NFL regular season.  So, let us just agree to call this Football-free Friday.

The Baseball Hall of Fame will have no new inductees next summer from the voting of the Baseball Writers Association of America; no player on the ballot this year received the requisite 75% of the votes cast to merit inclusion in the Hall of Fame.  The three highest vote counts went to:

• Curt Schilling
• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens.

From my perspective, people with a vote in this matter have chosen to vote against these three players for different reasons.  Bonds and Clemens are both inexorably tied to PED use – not proven to legal standards but proven to the standard of a preponderance of evidence for many baseball fans.  Schilling is merely “politically odious”; many of his public pronouncements go well beyond the standard of “politically incorrect”; many of his pronouncements are in the category of loathsome.  [Aside:  I am not going to list some of them here because I really believe that they need no additional airings.]

All three players have one year left on the Baseball Writers’ ballot; after that, their candidacy will be in the hands of a Committee known as the Today’s Game Committee.  Here is the membership of that Committee:

“The Today’s Game Committee shall consist of 16 members, comprised of members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, executives, and veteran media members. The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, Inc. shall act as the non-voting chairman of the committee and shall act as non-voting Secretary of the Committee.”

Schilling took the unprecedented action to petition the Hall of Fame to direct the Baseball Writers to take his name off their ballot for next year; he says he does not want to give the writers another year to harp on his personal views as they go about their voting.  Surprisingly, the writers have protested to the Hall of Fame that Schilling must remain on the ballot because their rules say he belongs there.  Yes, you are right; this contretemps has all the gravitas of an argument over “Tastes Great” versus “Less Filling”.

My position on the propriety of including controversial figures in the Baseball Hall of Fame is not black and white – – so let me try to explain.  The Baseball Writers try to include “character” and “integrity” issues in their criteria for entry to the HoF.  That leads to a conundrum quickly:

• Steroids were illegal in the 90s when they were rampantly used in MLB; there was no baseball rule about that but there were legal restrictions.  So, does that make PED users automatically ineligible on the basis of a “character flaw” as a “lawbreaker”?
• PEDs – by definition – give the user “performance enhancement” meaning they promote his ability to accumulate great stats that the writers then view as the basis for his candidacy.  So, should PED users be disqualified on the basis that their stats are in question?  Well, if that is the case, then how could someone like Gaylord Perry be in the HoF when he threw thousands of illegal spitballs over the course of his career that accumulated stats sufficiently noteworthy …?
• When a player lies about using PEDs – or about gambling on baseball – should the lies themselves be disqualifying indicating of a lack of “integrity”?

If I had a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame – which I do not – I would vote:

• To include Bonds and Clemens and other PED users/suspects posthumously and with the provision that their plaque in the Hall says explicitly that there is plenty of reason to believe that these players were PED users and that PEDs may well have inflated their statistics cited in the Hall of Fame.
• To include Pete Rose posthumously and with the provision that his betting on baseball and his lying about betting on baseball be included on his plaque with the notation that his gambling behaviors did not enhance his ability to accumulate his statistics.
• To include Curt Schilling in the HoF because he is one of the best big-game performers ever.  [See some stats below]  The idea that Curt Schilling and his odious political views will somehow pollute the Baseball Hall of Fame is beyond ludicrous.  Cap Anson and Ty Cobb were fundamentally flawed human beings – Anson also bet on baseball games – and they are in the Hall.  There is more than a little evidence that Cobb and Tris Speaker colluded to fix a game or two even after the 1919 Black Sox scandal and that the Commish looked the other way.  Speaker is in the Hall.  I think Curt Schilling is a social troglodyte – meaning no disrespect to cave dwellers in antiquity.  But he will not be the most repugnant person in the Hall of Fame if inducted.

Anyone can Google Schilling’s career stats for themselves.  I want to present just a couple of things that take a bit of searching through those stats to indicate why I believe Curt Schilling’s on-field body of work makes him eligible:

1. In the history of baseball, only 4 pitchers have recorded 300 strikeouts in three different seasons.  Those 4 are Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling.  That is rather good company Schilling is keeping there…
2. He started five postseason games where a loss would have eliminated his team; he won every one of them.  No other pitcher did that.
3. Overall in postseason play, Schilling started 19 games and was the pitcher of record in 13 of those 19 games.  His record for his career in the post season was 11-2 with an overall ERA of 2.23.

Finally, here is a note from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times related to another member of the Baseball Hall of Fame – – about whom there is no debate regarding his proper inclusion there:

“Yogi Berra, the late Yankees legend, is about to get his own commemorative postage stamp.

“New U.S. Postal Service motto: It ain’t delivered till it’s delivered.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Philadelphia Eagles fired coach Doug Pederson notwithstanding the fact that he delivered the only Super Bowl Trophy in the team’s history.  The rupture in the relationship there appears to be multi-dimensional:

• Last January, Pederson announced that his offensive coordinator would be back for another year; the next day, the Front Office fired the coordinator.  The Eagles went without an offensive coordinator last year dividing those duties between two “senior offensive assistants”.
• Defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, has either retired or has merely decided to take a year’s leave of absence from coaching.  Pederson wanted to hire Cory Undlin as his replacement; Undlin has 1 year of experience as a defensive coordinator and it yielded extremely poor results.  That hiring was not going to happen.
• The Eagles record since winning the Super Bowl has been a mediocre 22-25-1.  Moreover, in that time the team saw a dramatic regression in the performance of QB, Carson Wentz.
• And then there was the “Nate Sudfeld Decision”…

The “explanation” for playing Nate Sudfeld in the 4^th quarter of this year’s final game against the WTFs is that he had been with the team for 4 years and deserved a chance to play.  The game was meaningless to the Eagles – – but it was of critical importance to the WTFs and to the NY Giants and to the general integrity of the NFL.  So, the explanation that he “deserved a chance to play” was never going to fly – like an eagle or any other species of bird.

Patrick Mahomes got the day off in the final game of the regular season and that was more than “okay”; it was good common sense shown by Chiefs’ coach, Andy Reid.  That game meant nothing to the Chiefs; they would be the overall #1 seed in the playoffs win or lose.  That game meant nothing to the Chargers; they would miss the playoffs win or lose.  Everyone expected and accepted that the Chiefs would be playing the JV that day.

So, the Eagles now join the other six NFL teams that are seeking new head coaches.  The attractiveness of the Eagles’ job depends almost entirely on whether Carson Wentz is “fixable”.  He has a huge contract that will make him difficult to trade even to a team that is convinced that he is “fixable”.  If he is neither tradeable nor fixable, the Eagles are headed for a bad stretch over the next several  years.  Stay tuned…

Down at the collegiate level, the University of Michigan and Jim Harbaugh reached an agreement on a contract extension there; the extension runs through the end of the 2025 season.  Here is what is unusual about this contract extension:

• Harbaugh had one year left on his current deal and that called for an $8M salary.
• The new contract calls for him to earn $4M in 2021 with incentives that could get him back to the $8M level.
• It will cost Michigan $4M to buy Harbaugh out this year but that figure goes down by $1M a year to the end of the deal.
• It will cost Harbaugh $2M to buy himself out this year and that figure goes down by $500K a year to the end of the deal.

No matter how you look at it, Jim Harbaugh retained his job but took a massive pay cut in the process.  His “old deal” began in 2014 and was to end at the completion of next season; his “new deal” runs an extra 4 years but at about half the previous rate.  That does not happen frequently in the coaching profession; normally a coach in that situation is fired – – or at best he and the school “mutually agree to go in different directions.”

When Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor, he was the conquering hero returning home to the place where he saw success on the field for the Wolverines.  He was the guy who would lead the team to previous heights – – then beyond them.  More than merely the “Buzz Lightyear of Michigan football” (“To infinity and beyond!”), Jim Harbaugh was “The Football Messiah” in Ann Arbor back in 2014.  Now, he is a coach who kept his job by taking a 50% pay cut…

The incentives in his contract – – if achieved – – would allow Harbaugh to be –  once again –  one of the highest paid coaches in the country.  So, let us look at what it would take to get him into the rarefied air of more than $8M a year:

• Win the Big 10 title – – almost certainly meaning wins over Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State in the process.
• Be selected for the CFP
• Win the National Championship
• Be named Coach of the Year.

Now, let me look at the recent fortunes of Michigan football in juxtaposition to that list of goals for the program:

• The Wolverines are 11-10 in their last 21 games.
• Jim Harbaugh is 0-5 against Ohio State
• Michigan has lost its last 4 bowl games – – none of them even close to the stature of the CFP bowl games.

Nothing in those contract incentives is impossible.  Having lofty goals is not necessarily a bad thing.  However, my guess is that Harbaugh and the Michigan football program should be humming the tune of an old Frank Sinatra song:

“He’s got high hopes; he’s got high hopes

He’s got high apple pie in the sky hopes…”

Finally, given the status of the Eagles’ fortunes and the Michigan football situation, it seems appropriate to close here with the definition of optimism provided by the journalist and writer, Ambrose Bierce:

“Optimism:  The doctrine that everything is beautiful, including what is ugly, everything good, especially the bad, and everything right that is wrong.  It is hereditary, but fortunately not contagious.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

After two aberrant weeks where Holidays intervened to disrupt things here in Curmudgeon Central, Football Friday is once again coinciding with Friday on the calendar.  F. Scott Fitzgerald told us never to accept a single defeat as a final defeat.  He was right; simply through perseverance, Football Friday and the common calendar have come back into sync.

Therefore, let me begin with a look back on last week’s Six-Pack.  It was another plain vanilla performance which makes it all but certain that this year’s cumulative record in Six-Pack selections will be less than .500.

• College: 2-2-0
• NFL:  2-2-0
• Combined:  4-4-0
• Money Line Parlay:  0-1

That brings the cumulative record for Six-Pack selections to:

• College:  19-24-1
• NFL:  28-34-2
• Combined:  47-58-3\
• Money Line Parlays:  0-2

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Texas fired Tom Herman and found a way to cough up $24M to buy out his contract.  Texas football has lots of booster money at its disposal and Texas boosters seem not to be able to live with a successful football program that does not go beyond that level and become a dominant football program.  Herman was the coach at Texas for 4 seasons; his teams registered a combined record of 32-18; he was the “hottest”/”sexiest” coaching hire on the market back in 2017; now winning about 2 of every 3 games is not enough…

Texas alums love to crow – after spending a lot of money and landing a “top-shelf new coach” – that Texas football is back.  Maybe that will be the case this time; I will wait to see how the “new guy” makes that happen…

The “new guy” will be Steve Sarkissian who got the job on two bases:

1. He is the offensive coordinator for Alabama and the Alabama offense is more than merely “very good”.
2. He has cleansed many – if not all – of the stains on his previous coaching résumé in the penitence chamber of Nick Saban’s assistant coaches.

Steve Sarkissian may indeed be the second coming of Darrel Royal in Austin; time and results will decide if that is to be the case.  However, let me suggest that you read this assessment of the hire from CBSSports.com.

What college football has left to present to its fans is a CFP Championship Game.  Alabama and Ohio State will give college football fans a contest that is worthy of viewing and  analysis.  What happened last week in the CFP semi-finals was also an important presentation of college football; fans saw a lot of top-shelf college football players putting maximum effort out there for 60 minutes; nobody was “dogging it”; fans of college football – – as opposed to fans of a single team or a single conference – – got something they could appreciate.

Now, look at the rest of the bowl games for 2020/2021.  There were fewer of them this year because COVID-19 mandated that there would be fewer of them.  And, even with a smaller set of games to fill, how many of them were either important or interesting?

• Georgia 24 Cincy 21:  This was interesting because Cincy is not a Power 5 team and Georgia is one of the better teams in the best of the Power 5 Conferences.  The Bearcats had been undefeated going into the game; this game was meaningful, and it was competitive.
• Oklahoma 55 Florida 20:  This game matched two “also-rans” near the top of two Power 5 conferences.
• Oklahoma St. 37 Miami 34:  This game was between two good-if-not-great teams and it produced a close contest.
• Liberty 37 Coastal Carolina 34 (OT):  These are two teams that are not in Power 5 conferences who brought a combined record of 20-1 to the kickoff and then delivered an OT game for the fans.

The rest of the bowl games – – and there were dozens more – – were either not competitive or not important.  I bring this up only to suggest that the cries you will hear and read about expanding the CFP from 4 teams to 8 teams are not interesting.  This year, I might entertain an argument that Texas A&M belonged in the CFP as opposed to Notre Dame.  The Aggies won their bowl game over UNC handily.  But that is where it ends.  Yes, I know that in March Madness we finally saw a #16-seed beat a #1-seed.  But did we REALLY enjoy watching all of the blowout games pairing those teams for all those years?

One last observation about this year’s bowl games:

• The ACC record as a conference was 0-6.  Not impressive…

 

College Game of Interest:

 

(Mon Nite) Alabama – 8 versus Ohio State (75):  Nick Saban traditionally has been a “defensive guy”; this year his defense has not been outstanding – – merely 32^nd in the country in yards per game allowed and 13^th in the country in points per game allowed.  This year, the Alabama offense has the spotlight, and it puts 48 points per game on the scoreboard.  Instead of offensive coaches trying to find ways to “trick” the Alabama defense into a mistake or two in a game, this year’s opposing offensive coaches have to be concerned about keeping pace with the Alabama scoring machine.  From what I have seen, the Buckeyes have the speed on offense to do that AND they have a QB who can direct a big-play offense with poise and talent.  Will Justin Fields be at his peak physically after suffering a chest/rib injury a week ago and being sent back into the game with a “couple of shots” and “no diagnosis”?  Ohio State is +250 on the Money Line; Alabama is minus-270 on the Money Line.  I will try for a “middle” here where I bet on both teams and hope to win both bets.  I like Ohio State + 8 points AND I like Alabama on the Money Line.  If the Crimson Tide wins by 7 or fewer points, I cash both bets.  Put that pairing in the Six-Pack.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Last week, Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Hardware: Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s MVP; Buffalo’s Sean McDermott is Coach of the Year. No arguments will be entertained.”

Pardon me, Professor Molinaro; I do have two nominees to enter into this discussion and I believe that both merit consideration for these awards.  If Aaron Rodgers and Sean McDermott ultimately wind up with the awards, I shall have no great sense of loss.  I will not say the voting was rigged nor will I be so appalled by the choices that I would contest the voting process itself.  Having said that:

1. Derrick Henry needs to be considered as the NFL MVP for 2020.  If you use the criterion of “best player for the season”, Henry’s 2000+ yards speak for themselves rather eloquently.  If you use the criterion of “most valuable to his team”, I suggest that the Titans would not be in the playoffs without his presence in the backfield and his 397 “touches” in the 2020 regular season.
2. Kevin Stefanski needs to be considered as the NFL Coach of the Year.  He took over a Browns’ team that clearly lacked adult supervision and despite his “youth” (he is 38 years old), Stefanski got the Browns to a 11-5 record and a place in the playoffs for the first time since 2002.  The last time the Browns won 11 games in the regular season was in 1994; you may have heard of the coach on the 1994 Browns’ team; it was Bill Belichick.

The NFC playoff teams present us with the possibilities of seeing Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady playing against one another this year as the games unfold.  Even in Curmudgeon Central, there are no complaints about watching any or all those potential games.

Teams fight and claw to make it to the playoffs through the NFL regular season.  Well, we have an expanded playoff set this year and maybe it makes sense to try to understand what these playoffs mean to some of the teams and players who are still playing:

• The Titans and Browns are in the playoffs this year.  They are the only two teams making the playoffs this year that have never won a Super Bowl game.  The Titans have been to the Super Bowl once; the Browns – in neither of their incarnations – have ever participated.
• Lamar Jackson has never won a playoff game having made the playoffs in both of his previous 2 seasons in the NFL.  The Ravens bring a five-game winning streak to the kickoff against the Titans.  That is the good news; the bad news is that those five wins came at the expense of the Cowboys, Browns, Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. The Titans should provide stiffer competition this week.
• The Bills have won six games in a row and all six victories were of the double-digit variety.  Josh Allen threw 15 TDs and two picks in those winning games. The victims in those last 6 wins by the Bills were the Rams, Niners, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins.
• The Browns last playoff win came in January 1995.  Their QB this week, Baker Mayfield, was not born until April 1995.

These playoffs could very well mean a lot for some NFL coaches – in addition to what the game might mean to players and franchises.  Consider:

• Bruce Arians (Bucs):  He is an “offensive coach” and this year he was presented with Tom Brady, Gronk and Antonio Brown in addition to what he had last year.  I suggest the team had better score points.
• John Harbaugh (Ravens):  He is in no danger of getting fired, but his reputation will not be enhanced even a little bit with a 3^rd consecutive first-round playoff loss.
• Sean McDermott (Bills):  He has lost his only two playoff games in the first round of the playoffs – – just like John Harbaugh has lost in the last two years.   The huge difference here is that Harbaugh has a Super Bowl ring and McDermott does not.
• Matt Nagy (Bears):  Making the playoffs is likely a “coaching career reprieve” for him – – unless the Bears are embarrassed by the Saints this weekend…

Speaking of the Bills and their appearance in this year’s NFL playoffs, here is a comment from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“In addition to game tickets, parking and antifreeze, the 6,772 fans allowed in to watch the Bills’ first playoff game will be required to pay $63 for a COVID-19 test on the way in.

“Make it an even $100, rumor has it, and they’ll even throw in a Dr. Fauci bobblehead.”

Last weekend was the grand crescendo for the NFL regular season.  Let me mark the occasion by presenting some thumbnail comments on some – but not all – of last week’s games.

The Falcons did not force the Bucs to punt even once in their 44-27 loss last week.  The Falcons have lots of work to do in the off-season on both offense and defense.

The Cards are another team with work to do in the offseason.  They finished the season at 8-8 losing last week to the Rams quarterbacked by John Wolford in his first ever NFL start.  Since their BYE Week in early November, the Cards went 3-6.  Those three wins were:

• The “Hail Mary win over the Bills”
• A win over the NY Giants
• A win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
• Not impressive…

The Dolphins’ defense disappeared last week giving up 56 points to the Bills.  Was the Dolphins’ “Top-10 Defense” from Weeks 1-15 a mirage?

What do the Jets need to do in the offseason.  They need upgrades everywhere.  They have lots of picks this year and plenty of cap space – – that is good news for Jets fans.  Now, those picks and free agent signings must be productive…

The Pats very simply need to find a new QB AND they need to upgrade their pass catching cadre significantly.  There is no coaching legerdemain or scheming that will overcome those deficiencies.

The Jags are going to take Trevor Lawrence with the overall #1 pick in the Draft, but he will not be able to help the Jags’ defense which gave up 492 points this year.  The Jags have the Rams’ pick in the first round too and that one had better deliver a defensive stud.

Can Derrick Henry carry the miserable Titans’ defense through the playoffs?  He had 250 yards rushing by himself last week; and yet, the Titans needed a doinked field-goal to provide a 41-28 win over the Texans who went 4-12 for the season.

The Ravens beat the Bengals 38-3 and have won 5 straight games; the Ravens have been dominant in all 5 of those games.  The Ravens ran for 404 yards last week against the Bengals; of course, they won that game handily.  Two things here:

1. It is tough to beat a team that can dominate the line of scrimmage like that.
2. Most playoff teams have a better run defense than the Bengals – – except maybe the Titans’ defense which is pretty miserable.

The Niners just need to get their starters healthy in the off-season.  They were playing with one hand tied behind their back for most of the year.  The team has talent; much of it was on the sidelines this year – – or up in the press box socially distanced – – and in street clothes.

The Eagles need to repair coach/player trust – – some of which had to have been lost when Nate Sudfeld was sent in to play the 4^th quarter of last week’s game.

With all the focus on the miserableness evinced by the NFC East, the Bears enter the playoffs with some less-than-outstanding credentials.  The Bears went 8-8; they had a six- game losing streak during the season; if I have counted correctly, they have played other playoff teams 7 times and have gone 1-6 in those 7 games.  But at least, they are in the playoffs instead of sitting at home watching on TV.

The Raiders need to shore up their defense.  They are pretty much good-to-go at QB, RB, TE and WR.  The other side of the ball needs a talent infusion – – a large dose of new talent.

The Chargers may be searching for a new coach, but they have their franchise QB under contract.  Justin Herbert is the real deal.

The Lions are out looking for a new coach and the team is rumored to be considering a trade for Matthew Stafford.  I do not know if fans should be thrilled about that or not, but I think Matthew Stafford should be elated.

 

NFL Games:

 

(Sat 1:00 PM EST)  Indy at Buffalo – 6 (51):  The Colts’ defense was a Top 3 defense for the early part of this season, but it has become middling-at-best over the last month or so.  That is not a good way to approach a game against a Bills’ offense that is rocking and rolling.  I noted above that the Bills have won 6 games in a row by double digits; in those 6 victories, the Bills have averaged 39.8 points per game.  The Colts’ QB, Philip Rivers, is certainly the more experienced QB particularly in the playoffs; but his record in playoff games is not eye-popping.  He has started 11 games in the playoffs and won only 5 of them; in those 11 playoff games, he has thrown 14 TDs and 10 INTs.  The Colts’ rookie RB, Jonathan Taylor, has seemingly overcome his fumbling issues from earlier this season; he has rushed for 1169 yards and 11 TDs as a rookie.  The key here is the ability of the Colts’ defense to keep the Bills from sprinting out to a big lead; I do not think they will do that; I like the Bills to win and cover at home; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sat 4:30 PM EST):  Rams at Seattle – 3 (42):  These teams met twice in the regular season; this will be the rubber match; the home team prevailed in both regular season encounters.  Jared Goff’s thumb injury happened in the second game against the Seahawks two weeks ago; the small spread on the game indicates to me that the oddsmakers and the bettors to date believe that Goff will be able to play here.  The Rams’ defense has been successful against the Seahawks this year holding them to only 18 points per game in those two outings.  The Seahawks’ defense was awful at the beginning of the regular season, but that defense has been mighty stingy since mid-November giving up only 16.0 points per game in the final 8 regular season games.  I expect the game to be dominated by the two defenses but that Total Line seems awfully low to me; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sat 8:15 PM EST)  Tampa Bay – 8.5 at Washington (44.5):  This spread varies from 8 points to 9.5 points from sportsbook to sportsbook; this is the most common line as of this morning.  If there is a merciful God, the announcers for this game will not harp on the Chase Young “calling out” of Tom Brady after the WTFs beat the Eagles last weekend to clinch this playoff spot.  It was not worth the coverage it got last weekend; it became silly reporting early this week; it is now annoying, and I hope it is not a central storyline Saturday night.  [Aside:  Fat chance…]  This is an opportunity for the WTFs’ young defense to present themselves; the Bucs’ offense has plenty of talent; can the young defense hold it down?  The last time the WTFs’ defense gave up more than 20 points in a game was on November 15^th.  If you look at the Bucs’ offense, you will notice that it has averaged over 40 points per game in the last 3 games and that Tom Brady has thrown for a total of 1137 yards in those 3 games.  That may lead you to conclude that the WTFs’ defense is simply overmatched.  But wait; those last 3 games for the Bucs have been against the Falcons (twice) and the Lions.  I believe I have tracked this down correctly:

• I believe this is the first time in his career that Tom Brady has been in a playoff game in the wildcard round where he has been on the road.
• Tom Brady has started 301 regular season games and 41 playoff games in his career.  There are not a lot of “firsts” that he encounters these days…

The QB situation for the WTFs is “tenuous”.  Alex Smith is competent and fragile; Taylor Heinicke is getting reps in practice with the starting unit.  Is he going to be part of the game or is that a ploy to make the Bucs’ defensive coaches prep for something that is not going to happen?  No matter; the WTFs are not going to win this game if it turns into a shoot-out.  I think the game will stay close; I think the Bucs will win but they will have to work to make that happen; I’ll take the WTFs plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun 1:00 PM EST)  Baltimore – 3 at Tennessee (54):  Can the Ravens’ defense stop Derrick Henry?  No.  Can they keep him in check such that the Ravens’ offense has a chance to work on a porous Titans’ defense?  That is the key to the game…  Both teams would prefer to run the ball down the throat of the opponent; both teams should be successful to a point doing that.  The Titans have beaten the Ravens the last two times they met – – including in last season’s playoffs where the Ravens were sent home after a dominant regular season.  I think Lamar Jackson will have a big game here and break his “playoff jinx”. I like the Ravens to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun 4:40 PM EST)  Chicago at New Orleans – 10.5 (47.5):  From Week 13 through Week 16, the Bears’ offense seemed to awake from hibernation; in those 4 games, the Bears were north of 30 points every week and averaged 35 points per game.  It was a mirage.  Here are the defenses that were torched by the Bears in that 4-game run:

1. Lions
2. Texans
3. Vikings
4. Jags

Three of those four teams were bad enough this year that they are out looking for new coaches as I type these words.  Mitchell Trubisky will have difficulty against a good Saints’ defense; he will need all the help he can get from RB, David Montgomery.  By the same token, the Saints’ offense will not waltz up and down the field over the Bears’ defense because the Bears will probably collapse the defense and dare Drew Brees to beat it deep.  I do not think he can do that too often.  I hate picking double digit spreads in NFL games; in the regular season, this game would never show up in a Six-Pack.  But since these are the playoffs, I’ll make an exception; I’ll take the Bears plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun 8:15 PM EST)  Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 6 (47.5):  Can the Browns beat Steelers two weeks in a row?  The Steelers lost by 2 points in Cleveland last week without the services of Ben Roethlisberger, TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and Maurkice Pouncey.  Nevertheless, the Steelers have problems that have been exposed over the past five weeks where they have gone 1-4 to finish off the regular season.

• The Steelers do not run the ball well.
• The Steelers do not throw deep well.
• The Steelers lead the NFL in “dropped passes”.

If the Steelers are to win this game, it will likely be on the backs of their defense – – but that unit has had more than its share of injuries to top-shelf players  Devin Bush and Bud Dupree jump to mind there.  On the other hand, the Browns’ loss of Olivier Vernon will not help their defense.  Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski will have to miss the game under the COVID-19 protocols; given that I think he belongs in the discussion for Coach of the Year (see above), I believe that will be a significant issue.  I do not expect any offensive fireworks in this game; the Browns will try to pound the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt; the Steelers will dink-and-dunk far more often than they will do anything else.  In the end, I think the Steelers are the better team and they will have their coach on the sidelines; I’ll take the Steelers to win and cover at home; put it in the Six-Pack.

Just for fun, I want to try one more Money Line Parlay this week.  Give me:

1. Alabama at minus-270
2. Bills at minus-300
3. Ravens at minus-180
4. WTFs at + 300.

The payout here will be +850 – – if I did the math correctly.

So, let me review the Six-Pack:

• Ohio State +8
• Alabama on the Money Line at minus-270
• Bills – 6 over Colts
• Rams/Seahawks OVER 42
• WTFs +8.5 against Bucs
• Ravens – 3 over Titans
• Bears +10.5 against Saints
• Steelers – 6 over Browns
• Money Line Parlay of Alabama, Bills, Ravens, WTFs

Finally, Dwight Perry had this observation regarding one of this year’s minor bowl games in the Seattle Times last week:

“Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz — while dancing with the Duke’s Mayo Bowl crystal trophy after the Badgers’ 42-28 win over Wake Forest — fumbled it onto the locker-room floor, shattering it into hundreds of pieces.

“No need to tell this to Mertz when the replacement bauble finally arrives: Don’t hold the Mayo.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………