NFL Wagers | The Sports Curmudgeon

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 1/24/16

These picks will need to be brief. I am preparing for the Snowmageddon heading toward the Washington DC/Maryland/Northern Virginia area. For those who live in more northerly climes, a foot of snow here is a paralyzing event; it could take three days to dig out from it. The forecast for this snow event is for two feet – or more in some spots. This is not a “hunker down event”; this is a “hibernation event”.

Last week’s Mythical Picks were blah. The record was 2-2-0 meaning that the season record now stands at 130-121-5. There were no Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games so that record remains at 17-17-1.

The “Best Pick” last week taking the Patriots minus 4.5 points and watching the Chiefs dawdle at the end in their attempt to catch up. They did not.

The “Worst Pick” of the week was taking Green Bay/Arizona to go OVER 49.5 points. Even with a TD in overtime, the game stayed UNDER.

Undaunted, I shall move ahead to the game for this week. Obviously, no one should consider using any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game this weekend in the event that the real wager involves real money. Here is how dumb you would have to be to do something like that:

You probably think that former UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, left that post to become the CEO at Starbucks.

General Comments:

The big NFL news from last week is that the Rams will move to LA perhaps to be joined there by the Chargers leaving the Raiders in a dilapidated stadium in a downscale location for the moment. There is much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth in St. Louis and in parts of the State of Missouri over this move. As a fan of the NFL who has no particular affection for or animus toward the Rams as a franchise, I think there is an ironic twist to all of this.

How did St. Louis and Missouri attract the Rams? They offered the owner of the team a brand new stadium with lots of new amenities where she (Georgia Frontiere owned the Rams at the time.) could make more money than she could playing in an outdated stadium in LA. Fast forward to 2016 and the situation is almost exactly reversed except in this case the current Rams owner will build the new modern stadium as part of a much larger development effort he has underway in LA and he will make more money by moving the team than by staying put. Plus ça change; plus ça même chose…

This should be a cautionary tale for cities and states who borrow large amounts of money against future tax receipts to build stadiums for billionaire team owners. In the case of St. Louis, the city – and probably to some extent the State too – is now on the hook to continue to pay the interest and eventually to return the principle on the municipal bonds floated to build the stadium in St. Louis. There will, however be significantly diminished revenue from that stadium leaving the officials there two less-than-wonderful choices:

They can make the interest payments and the return of principle out of taxpayer funds in the “General Treasury” – or whatever they call it in that part of the country. That means those dollars will not be available for other things that might be important to the community at large because there is a fundamental principle at work here:

In science, we talk about the Law of Conservation of Matter. In most everyday processes, matter is neither created nor destroyed; it takes a hydrogen bomb to destroy a bit of matter to turn it into a lot of energy.

In economics, there must be a name for the law that says you cannot spend the same dollar twice. In the situation at hand, if the city spends tax revenue on bond interest, those are dollars than cannot be spent on schools or road or …

There was plenty of commentary last week about Blair Walsh – the Vikes’ kicker who missed that chip-shot field goal at the end of the game allowing the Seahawks to advance to the next round. Here are two of the better comments on that event:

“Blair Walsh gets all the blame for shanking that 27-yard field-goal attempt, costing the Vikings a playoff win. But what about the holder, who failed to spin the laces away from Walsh? ‘It’s not easy being a placekick holder. A lot of odd and crazy things can happen in the heat of the moment,’ said former kick-holder Lucy van Pelt.” [Scott Ostler, SF Chronicle]

And…

“The Minnesota Vikings lost their playoff game when their kicker missed a 27-yard field goal. The kicker is now in an undisclosed location, waiting to meet with Sean Penn.” [Jimmy Fallon, the Tonight Show]

I enjoyed the way Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts did the Patriots/Chiefs game. There were no histrionics; there was pointed commentary when they chose to mention a missed call by the game officials; in the argot of the day, they let the game come to them. Would that more announcing teams would do the same.

Tom Brady was 28-42 in the game for 302 yards and 2 TDs. Of those 28 completions, 17 were made by Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. Perhaps that is a measure of the degree to which the Pats’ offense is diminished when either or both of those two players is sidelined. Speaking of Gronkowski, there reports that he had a back injury during the week and that he had to have his knee drained or shot up or whatever. He was “questionable” for the game. Looking at the way he played and ran around and hit people last weekend, I am left with only two possibilities:

He somehow slipped off undetected on a trip to Lourdes the night before the game and got back just in time to dress for the game.

The stats from this game demonstrate two things:

The Pats offense was extremely efficient too. They ran 56 plays for 340 yards (more than 6 yards on average per offensive snap). Part of that offensive efficiency comes from the way the OL played. The Chiefs averaged 2.9 sacks per game this year; last week they recorded exactly zero sacks.

The game was also very clean; the first penalty flag appeared at 11:36 of the second quarter (that penalty was declined) and for both teams there was a total of 11 penalties for 64 yards. The Buffalo Bills call 11 penalties for 64 yards an excellent game.

With regard to the Packers/Cardinals game, what was the more improbable occurrence:

B. Aaron Rodgers second Hail Mary completion for a TD this season?

You make the call…

The Cardinals won this game in spite of Carson Palmer and not because of him. One of his two TD passes was a tipped pass that could just as easily have been a Pick Six going the other way and the threw 2 INTs in the game. Palmer has had a great season; he should get some votes for MVP; nevertheless, this game was not nearly his finest hour.

There were more than a few “non-calls” on pass interference/illegal contact during the game. The calls were ignored for both teams so you can say that the officials were consistent in their calls – consistently incorrect that is. Then came the coin flip fiasco for overtime; you could probably use that footage as part of a Marx Brothers movie.

Two questions that came to mind from that game:

What should I say to all of the folks who suggested that the Cards should dump Larry Fitzgerald at various times over the past 2 seasons? All he did this year was catch 109 passes in 16 regular season games and then catch 8 more for 176 yards and the winning TD here.

People often talk about “negative body clock games” for West Coast teams that have to fly to the East Coast and play a game starting at 1:00 PM. The players’ biological clocks are telling them it is only 10:00 AM and some players/teams do not adjust to that very well. Perhaps that is the explanation for the lethargic first half played by the Seahawks last week? In any event the Panthers ran away to a 31-0 halftime lead and then held on to win 31-24. People quickly pointed out that the Panthers had “blown” large early leads in other games this year – the Giants game being the prime example – and such observations as criticism. The critics seem to fail to realize a fundamental fact here:

In order to “squander” or “blow” a 31-point lead, you have to play such that you are leading by 31 points at some point in the game. Bottom-feeders and even average teams probably never led by 31 points in a game so they never had the “opportunity” to squander one.

The difference in this game was pretty simple; the Panthers were able to run the ball and the Seahawks were not. The Panthers ran the ball 41 times out of 64 offensive plays and controlled the tempo and the clock. The Seahawks only ran the ball 12 times.

Given that this was a playoff game and that the Panthers had a pretty good inkling that they would be hosting a playoff game for a while now, that field was in pretty bad condition. The Panthers should not be proud of their showing in that dimension.

Prior to the game, Bob Molinaro had this observation about Cam Newton in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Seeing the field: More evidence this season of Cam Newton’s growing maturity as a quarterback: He has 24 TD passes and zero interceptions in the red zone.”

The Broncos/Steelers game was hard fought and defense-oriented from start to finish. The Broncos had the best defense in the NFL; it was no surprise that they showed up and played well. The Steelers’ defense had not been nearly so highly regarded this year so did they play a bad game or did the Broncos’ offense play poorly? I think it was the Steelers’ defense playing well that produced what we saw last week.

Third down was not kind to either team last week. The Broncos were 3 for 15 on third down conversions; that pretty much stinks and usually will cost a team a victory. However, the Steelers were even worse; they were 2 for 12 on third down conversions last week.

Concerning Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder injury, if Rob Gronkowski possibly visited Lourdes to make his miraculous recovery, then perhaps Roethlisberger got a shot of Pixie Dust from Tinker Bell in his shoulder. Here is what I saw in that game; he threw the ball long; he threw the ball hard; he was hit and sacked on his right shoulder and continued to throw the ball long and throw the ball hard. “Nuff said…

The fumble recovery by the Broncos that led to the winning TD drive happened with 9:52 left in the game. As important as the TD was, equally important was that the drive took 6:52 seconds. When the Steelers got the ball back there were only 3 minutes left to play in the game and the Steelers were down 2 scores.

I have one final “General Comment” regarding last week’s games and it relates to the CBS studio show that accompanies the CBS games:

Am I the only one who – after a season of suspending judgment – thinks that CBS studio analyst Bart Scott is as useful as a toaster to a scuba diver? Maybe he is speaking in Klingon and my translator is not working. Other than that, CBS needs to find someone else to sit on the set and pontificate.

The Games:

(Sun. 3:00 PM EST) New England -3 at Denver (44.5): Here is an interesting fact I ran across earlier this week but I did not note where I found it so I cannot cite the source:

The last time there was an AFC Championship Game that did not have either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in it was back in 2011.

Bill Belichick has lost more playoff games (9) in his coaching career than Gary Kubiak has coached in (5). Of course, Belichick has also won 23 playoff games over his coaching career. For me, this game breaks down easily; the Broncos have the better defense (about 65 yards per game better) and the Pats have the better offense (20 yards per game better and 7 points per game better). The thing is that the Pats’ defense may not be as good as the Broncos’ defense, but it is still awfully good. I think this is a defensive game; I like the game to stay UNDER.

(Sun. 6:45 PM EST) Arizona at Carolina – 3 (47.5): Both coaches bring .500 playoff records to this contest (Ron Rivera is 2-2; Bruce Arians is 1-1). Arizona is in its second NFC Championship Game; they won the last time they were here but that was a home game. Carolina has been in the NFC Championship Game 4 times but this is the first time they have been at home for one. Bottom line:

I think Carolina is the better team so I like the Panthers to win and cover.

In addition, both of these teams can score; in terms of points per game they rank #1 and #2 in the NFL this season. I like this game to go OVER.

Finally, here is an observation from last weekend by Greg Cote in the Miami Herald:

“Mel Kiper’s first mock draft for ESPN has Dolphins selecting Clemson DE Shaq Lawson eighth overall. Mel will have 45 more mocks with 45 other guesses.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 1/17/16

Last week’s Mythical Picks took gas. The record for last week was 1-3-0 taking the season record down to 128-119-5. There were no Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games so that record stayed put at 17-17-1.

The “Best Pick” from last week was the only pick I got right. I took the KC/Houston game to stay UNDER 40.5 points. It did. In no way did I think that the Chiefs could score 30 points in that game; also in no way did I think that the Texans would fail to score all day. Nonetheless, it turned out right for a bunch of “wrong reasons”.

The “Worst Pick” from last week was taking Washington and giving a point to Green Bay. I really thought the Packers were coming apart at the seams and that an average team like the Skins could beat them at home. Not even close…

Please do not succumb to the temptation to use any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game this weekend if, in fact, the real wager involves real money. These are Mythical Picks; you would have to be a dumbass to consider them authoritative. How dumb?

You probably think a reign of terror is a frightening storm.

General Comments:

The Cleveland Browns have a new head coach; Hue Jackson will move north from Cincy where he was the offensive coordinator to become the Head Coach in Cleveland. Jackson had a previous shot in the pilot’s seat with the Raiders in 2011; his record in his only year in Oakland was 8-8 but he lost his job when the team installed a new GM, Reggie McKenzie, and the new GM decided to go out and find “his guy” to coach the team.

Jackson’s 8-8 record did not look like a “world-beater” at the time; but in retrospect, it keeps looking better and better. Consider the Raiders’ coaching records of those who came after Jon Gruden left in 2002:

The Browns re-entered the NFL in 1999; since then, they have had 8 coaches which seems like a lot unless you look at the Raiders’ history over a similar period of time. However, it is really worse than that. Since 2010, they have had four head coaches; Jackson will be the fifth.

Here is an idea for a new name for the position of Head Coach of the Cleveland Browns:

Short Attention Span Theater.

The Niners had interviewed Jackson before he spoke with the Browns. Both rosters are short on talent and Jackson chose the Browns. That should not be taken as good news by Niners’ fans… However, it does set up an interesting thing to watch. Hue Jackson is an “offense guy” and in order to run an NFL offense, you need a QB. On the Browns’ roster as of this morning they have:

So, does Hue Jackson – Mr. “Offense Guy” – see someone on that list who can be “The Man” for the Browns? If the Browns do not take a QB early in the draft, you would have to think so.

The Browns are not a good team and they need a QB. The Texans are a good enough team that they made the playoffs without a good QB. If the Texans could wave a wand and get themselves a top-shelf QB, the Texans could be a good team for quite a while. Here is the quarterback cadre that got the Texans to the playoffs this year:

If the Texans are going to repeat as AFC South champions next year, their cause will be aided by adding to that list. They may need to spend money in the free agent market or swing a trade for someone better than what is on the roster now. They are going to draft a bit too low in the first round to count on getting a QB there who is ready to start. It will be interesting to see what the Texans do here…

In all four of the Wild Card Games last weekend, the home team started a QB who had never started a playoff game before. Meanwhile, all four of the visiting teams brought QBs to the stadium that had playoff experience – and three of those four had Super Bowl rings. Yes, all the visiting teams won their games.

Brian Hoyer

AJ McCarron (Bengals) played just well enough to set up the team for a loss when the inevitable “Bengal Bungle” happened late in the game. [See below…]

Teddy Bridgewater (Vikes) was solid but never did find a way to get the ball into the end zone.

Kirk Cousins (Skins) played adequately but he was betrayed by his OL who allowed 6 sacks and could not generate any meaningful running attack.

Consider that list of first-time-starting QBs who exited in the first round of playoff games with the 8 QBs that are left and their playoff experience:

[Aside: Had you given me that list and asked me to name the QB with the fewest playoff starts, I would have guessed Alex Smith and not Carson Palmer. Hi-Ho! ]

Last weekend, the Texans ran up against the KC Chiefs and the Chiefs like the Texans have a really good defense. What that game put on display was the Texans’ inability to deal with a “really good defense”. The final score was 30-0 and that pretty much tells you what was going on down there on the field. The stats might lead you to believe that the Texans were able to run the ball a bit here, but that is a mirage. The stats say the Texans ran the ball 25 times for 114 yards which seems rather good. The problem is that they got 50 yards on one play so that for the rest of the game, they ran the ball 24 times for 64 yards – less than 3 yards per carry.

That lack of a running game – and the fact that the Texans were behind in the game from the opening kickoff that was returned by the Chiefs for a TD – set up Brian Hoyer to throw the ball 34 times. It simply was not Hoyer’s day; he was sacked 3 times and intercepted 4 times.

With the ball at about the Chiefs’ 1-yardline in the second quarter, the Texans sent JJ Watt in on offense to play “single wing tailback” with Vince Wilfork as a blocking back and another behemoth lineman next to Wilfork on the right side of a “single wing formation”. Everyone north of Antarctica knew where that play was headed; indeed, it lost yardage due to lack of surprise. That bad play call did not lose the game for the Texans, but the folks who put that play in the game plan and then actually called it in anger ought to be made to run laps.

I think the injury that took Jeremy Maclin out of the game for the Chiefs could be very important. Maclin did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday this week but reports say that he is “not limping” and that his injury is a “mild high-ankle sprain”. Maclin is very important to the Chiefs’ offense because he provides speed in addition to experience and good hands and all that stuff. The Chiefs need a healthy Jeremy Maclin; for the moment, he is “questionable”.

The Chiefs/Texans game was hotly contested on both sides; you did not see any players on the field “dogging it”. Nevertheless, there were no cheap shots or “criminal intentions” exhibited on the field; there was no “head-hunting”.

I mention that as a way to lead into the Steelers/Bengals game. I understand that this is a division rivalry game that happened in a playoff situation. I get that. I also get that there is really no way to justify the barbarity/violence/thuggery exhibited by both teams in that game. All of that came to a head – so to speak – in the final minute of the game, but it was sadly on display for almost the entire game. In addition to the barbarism, there was an annoying level of “celebrations-over-nothing” in the game. The culmination of that was a 15-yard penalty on the Steelers for excessive celebrating after what turned out not to be a TD after all. On any ordinary week, the perpetrator of that silliness would be the odds-on favorite to be the Asshat of the Week. But not in this game…

In the final minute, the Bengals held a 1-point lead thanks to a nice pass from AJ McCarron to AJ Green. When the Steelers recovered a fumble, they had hope – but it was a faint hope. They had to march the length of the field with little time, no timeouts and with Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder such that he could not throw the ball very far downfield. Then came the “Bengal Bungle of the Year” – the “Massive Meltdown”, the “Feline F-Up”, the “Incredible Inevitable Idiocy”. You have to have seen the replays of Vontaze Burfict’s head-shot on Antonio Brown and if you have followed football for any time now, it should not have surprised you. Burfict has been a serial offender when it comes to violent cheap shots for all of his NFL career and for some of his college career. That ridiculous penalty stopped the clock; gave the Steelers a first down and put them on the fringe of their kicker’s range. And then it got worse…

Adam Jones – in case you did not know, this is the same player who used to be known as “Pacman” Jones and the one who had that “minor incident” in a strip club where gunfire rendered a guard paralyzed for life – decided that this was the exact moment to get involved in some other altercation on the field in order to earn yet another 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct. That made the field goal try not much more than an extra point try. The Steelers made the field goal and won the game.

In one sense, these monumental screw-ups are not all that surprising.

The team has a history of having players who “make bad decisions”.

The coaching staff apparently does not sanction such behaviors in any meaningful way because they continue to manifest themselves.

The team has no GM so I think it is fair to surmise that the team’s owner, Mike Brown, has some role in roster building and player retention; if so, his inaction over the years would seem to be a form of acceptance of such stupidity.

Some have suggested that Marvin Lewis might – or even should – lose his job over all of this. I agree that Lewis has not provided the sort of strict discipline needed to curb this sort of stupidity; but on balance, he has done far more “right things” with the Bengals than he has done “wrong things”. These moronic manifestations should not cost him his job. However, this happened on a large national stage in front of a big audience; I do think he should be put on notice that another display of this kind would be sufficient to look seriously at getting a new coach in Cincy.

Before concluding my commentary on the Steelers/Bengals game, let me say clearly that Mike Tomlin, the Steelers’ coaching staff, and the Steelers’ players did not behave in an exemplary fashion either last week. The Steelers did not exhibit nearly the same levels of anti-social behavior or the same depths of moronic activities as did the Bengals; and indeed, they won the game. Nevertheless, their game behavior was anything but exemplary and they have not attracted anywhere near the level of public scorn as have the Bengals. However, they are not blameless here…

Dwight Perry had a wonderful summary of all this in the Seattle Times:

“Hothead costs the Bengals a playoff win? Cue the first “Burfict storm” headline in 3 … 2 … 1 …”

The Vikes/Seahawks game was another hard fought game featuring two good defenses that were both hitting hard from start to finish. However, there were no cheap shots or kill shots in the game despite the fact that there were hard hits on the vast majority of plays. It seemed as if the Vikes’ defense was out to prove that it is much better than what they showed in the last meeting between these teams a couple of weeks ago. In that contest, the Seahawks ran off to a 35-0 lead and dominated the game.

I still wonder why the Vikes did not really try to throw the ball downfield in the game. I can only recall one deep pass and it was incomplete. Maybe it was the frigid weather? Maybe it was a lack of confidence in their receivers? I have seen Bridgewater throw deep in previous games; he can do that when given the chance; the play calling never got to that last week.

The Seahawks’ defense geared itself to keep Adrian Peterson under control for the day. Peterson ran the ball 23 times for a total of 45 yards. The Seahawks’ defense can declare “mission accomplished” for that one. Peterson was extremely valuable for the Vikes this year in that he forced defenses to tend to him thereby allowing Terry Bridgewater some lebensraum in the passing game. For the Vikes to advance as a team next year, they will need Peterson to play at a comparable level to this year AND for Terry Bridgewater to ramp up the passing game.

I really thought the Skins had sufficient momentum going for them to win at home against a Packers’ team that had struggled in the late part of the season and a team that had looked discombobulated in several of their late-season losses. When the Skins led 11-0 in the early second quarter, I thought they might run away and hide. What followed next was that the Packers proceeded to score points on their next 6 possessions to win the game comfortably.

I mentioned above that the Skins’ OL betrayed Kirk Cousins. If you have a recording of the game, go and watch Skins LT, Trent Williams. He is a constant Pro Bowl selection and he deserves those honors; he is a really good offensive lineman. However, not last week… In the late stages of the game, the pressure and the sacks were always coming from his side of the formation and he was often the guy lurching in a desperate attempt to get a body on a defender just as Kirk Cousins was about to take a shot.

I also want to make a comment about Skins’ WR, DeSean Jackson. His speed, his hands and his general athleticism make him a serious deep threat that any defense must pay attention to. Having said that, he has hardly lived up to his physical abilities recently. Let me do a brief reset here:

Jackson injured himself in training camp by running into a blocking sled. Honest, he did that…

After missing most of the exhibition season – but repeatedly professing that he was working on his speed and would be ready for the opener – he pulled a hamstring on the first deep ball thrown his way in the opening game. I believe the next time he was on the field in anger was in early November.

Jackson appeared in 10 games this year, caught 30 passes and scored 4 TDs. That is a meager output from a nominal #1 receiver who claims that there is not a defender alive that can cover him on the field.

I went through all of that to set up the fact that Jackson cost the Skins a TD in this game. He caught a pass over the middle at about the 10 yardline and made for the pylon at the goal line. Holding the ball out from his body in a stylish fashion, he glided across the goal line but did not step in the end zone before going out of bounds. Hence the ball was not past the pylon and it was not a TD; had he dived into the end zone it would have been a TD. As fortune would have it, the Skins could not put the ball in the end zone even with a 1st and goal spot at the half-yardline. They got a field goal; and they saw the game momentum shift immediately to the Packers.

Two seasons ago, Chip Kelly simply cut Jackson in Philly and lots of people thought Kelly had taken leave of his senses. Jackson is an immense physical talent; there is no question about that. Jackson is also – to use a word a former colleague used frequently – a “meathead”. His “meatheadedness” is not violent or dangerous like the behaviors of some of the Bengals, but Jackson’s “meatheadedness” seemingly would have him fitting in just fine in the Bengals’ locker room.

The Games:

(Sat. 4:35 PM EST) KC at New England – 4/5 (42.5): The Total Line for this game opened at 45.5 and plunged to this level right away; you can find it as low as 41.5 this morning. The Pats will get Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola back on the field for this game and the knee-jerk thinking is that this will throw the Pats’ offense back into overdrive and all will be well in Chowdah City. I am a bit antsy with tha kind of reasoning because:

The Chiefs’ defense succeeds by pressuring the QB.

I think that match-up is seriously tilted towards the Chiefs. I know that Bill Belichick has had 2 weeks to cook up some kind of “magical scheme” for this game. I think he needs a magical potion to heal his offensive linemen so they can play in top form more than he needs a “magical scheme”. On the other side of the ball, Belichick’s 2 weeks to prepare a defensive strategy may pay significant dividends. Alex Smith has been very efficient and effective this year during the Chiefs’ 11-game win streak. However, the Pats’ bring a good defense to the field and those 2 weeks to come up with a few “confusing wrinkles” could prove decisive. Make this a venue call, I’ll take the Pats and lay the points.

(Sat. 8:15 PM EST) Green Bay at Arizona – 7 (49.5): The Cards beat the Packers in Arizona 38-8 just a few weeks ago. Sounds as if laying only 7 points is a bargain, right? Remember, two of the Cards’ TDs in that game came from fumble recoveries that were run in for a score. How likely is that to happen again? Also, consider that the Vikings lost to the Seahawks 38-7 just a few weeks before those teams met last week. What happened there? The Seahawks won the rematch by a single point – and needed a botched chip-shot field goal to do that. This game is not a slam-dunk for the Cards. The Packers played the way we have come to expect the Packers to play against the Skins last week but there is a difference here. The Skins’ defense ranked 28th in the NFL this season in yards per game; the Cards’ defense ranked 5th in the league; the Cards gave up about 60 fewer yards per game than did the Skins. I think there will be lots of offense and lots of scoring here so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

(Sun. 1:00 PM EST) Seattle at Carolina – 3 (44): For me, this will be the best game of the weekend. I think the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl and the winner of this game will be the favorite in the Super Bowl. Russell Wilson is undefeated playing against the Panthers in Charlotte; his record there is 3-0. None of those wins were blowouts by any stretch of the imagination, but they were victories. Counterbalancing that information is the fact that the Panthers beat the Seahawks this year on the Seahawks’ home turf in another close game. The Panthers have had a week to rest and to prepare for this game. The Seahawks on the other hand had to play in the “Minnesota Freezer” last week, fly back to Seattle, and then fly to Charlotte (3-hour time change for an early kickoff). The Seahawks are here thanks to a missed chip-shot field goal. Does that mean they are “destined” to win it all this year or does it mean they are not really good enough to be in this game in the first place. I have no idea about their destiny; I do believe they are good enough to deserve to be in this game. I like the Seahawks plus the points here. Notwithstanding that selection, I think this will be a great game to watch.

(Sun. 4:40 PM EST) Pittsburgh at Denver – 9 (40): The spread opened at 4.5 points and has been rising all week. Reports this morning say that Antonio Brown will not play on Sunday; reports earlier in the week said that Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder injury is a “sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his right shoulder”. I do not know an AC joint from a DC joint but it stands to reason that injuries to the throwing shoulder of a QB are not trivial matters. At the very least, Roethlisberger will be playing at something less than full effectiveness. If in fact Landry Jones has to play a significant portion of this game, let me say this very clearly:

Landry Jones is probably a very nice young man, but against the Broncos’ defense in Denver, he is – simply – overmatched.

In the real world, no one would get down on this game until the playing status and the anticipated proficiency level for Roethlisberger was far better known. However, I have to make these picks a bit more than 48-hours before that information will be available. Here is how I think the game will roll out:

That diminishes the value of the speed the Steelers have at the WR position – even with Antonio Brown sidelined.

Steelers’ defense also has no real deep threat to worry about because the evidence from the 2015 season says that Peyton Manning is not the deep threat he was just a few seasons ago.

Both teams will try to run the ball with only marginal success against defenses that line up to stop the run.

The game will turn on field position and turnovers.

With that scenario, I like the game to stay UNDER. By the way, if I knew for certain that Landry Jones and/or Michael Vick would never see the field in this game, I would take the Steelers with that basket of points. But I don’t know that for certain …

Finally, Brad Dickson had this comment with regard to Johnny Manziel and his off-field escapades in the Omaha World-Herald:

“Johnny Manziel has appeared in so many possibly alcohol-related videos, he’s been named an honorary Clydesdale.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 1/10/16

There were no Mythical Picks last week; however, the Mythical Picks from two weeks ago were en fuego. Three weeks ago, I had the best week of Mythical Picking” this year at 12-4-0; two weeks ago, was even better with a record of 12-3-0. That brings the cumulative record for the season to 127-116-5 which is solidly above .500 and very close to being mythically profitable against a 10% vig.

The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol was 1-0-0 two weeks ago. For the season, The Coin did exactly what one might expect from a flipped coin. The season record for the coin – and presumably there will be no coin-flip games in the playoffs – stands at 17-17-1.

The “Best Picks” from two weeks ago were taking the Falcons +7 and seeing them win outright against the Panthers and taking the Rams +13 and seeing them beat the Seahawks straight up.

The “Worst Pick” from two weeks ago was taking the Steelers minus 10 points against the Ravens and having the Ravens win the game.

Notwithstanding the hot streak shown in the last two versions of Mythical Picking, no one should consider anything written here as authoritative or informed with regard to the outcome of playoff games this week – or in future weeks for that matter. One would have to be pretty stupid to use these musings as the basis for making a real wager on a real game involving real money. How stupid?

You would probably sprinkle sugar on your pillows to ensure sweet dreams.

General Comments:

The NFL owners will meet next week in an attempt to resolve the “LA Situation”. The problem here is very simple; you learned about the principle in ninth-grade science class:

Two bits of matter cannot occupy the same space at the same time.

The problem the NFL owners need to resolve is this one:

The problem is that 3 teams want to move there.

That is akin to the difficulty of putting 10 lbs of horsesh*t in a 5-lb bag.

The NFL bylaws say that any proposal to move a team requires the affirmative vote of 24 owners. Now, the fact that the impending meeting has not allowed any of the reporters who follow the league closely to report how things are going to turn out tells me that the league does not know how things are going to turn out. The national reporters who cover the NFL are very good at working their sources; by this time, I would have expected to read at least a half dozen reports on what was going to happen at next week’s meeting with only minor variants among the reports. What I have seen is dead silence…

The only recent pronouncement of note was a comment in a report issued by Stan Kroenke – owner of the St. Louis Rams. He said that any team that is in St. Louis – or moves to St. Louis – is on the path to “financial ruin” and that ruination would be bad for the NFL as a whole. Here is a link to a CBSSports.com report on Kroenke’s remarks and his proposal to the NFL for moving the Rams to LA.

The tone of his remarks would lead me to conclude:

If Stan Kroenke were running for mayor of St. Louis against Satan, the polls would likely have the race as “too close to call”.

What the NFL seems to need is leadership – by the Commish or an owner or two – to broker a compromise deal. If all three of the owners who want to move have cobbled together a solid group of 8 other owners who will back their position and no other position, this is NFL gridlock that could be more restrictive than Congressional gridlock – and that is not an easy situation to obtain. Stand by for some sort of temporizing move by the league next week…

The Cleveland Browns hired Paul DePodesta to be their strategic leader that will take the Browns from their status of “adrift at sea” to “relevant in the NFL”. The unusual thing is that the Browns hired DePodesta away from the NY Mets of MLB. Time will tell if this was innovative or just plain stupid…

DePodesta replaces Ray Farmer as the guiding light. Farmer demonstrated rather clearly that he had no clue how to create a draft board that yielded productive players for the team; the roster is significantly low on talent. Farmer’s claim to fame for this tenure in Cleveland is that he was suspended for 4 games for sending text messages from his perch in the stadium to one of the assistant coaches on the sideline during a game. With that record, let me just say that DePodesta does not have a tough act to follow.

The move from MLB to the NFL is sort of a mirror-image of the move made by Bo Schembechler who went from Head Coach and Athletic Director at Michigan to be the President of the Detroit Tigers in the early 90s. Schembechler lasted about 2 years in the job and his signature achievement was to fire Hall of Fame broadcaster Ernie Harwell, who was rehired by the Tigers about as soon as Schembechler was shown the door. If that is another yardstick by which DePodesta is to be measured, it does not provide him a daunting task.

Probably the biggest obstacle to DePodesta being successful is the mercurial owner of the Browns, Jimmy Haslem, who seems to have the patience and attention span of a kitten. Here is what Haslem had to say about this new hire:

“We are fortunate to bring in Paul, an extremely talented, highly respected sports executive who will add a critical dimension to our front office. His approach and ambition to find the best pathways for organizational success transcend one specific sport and his experience as a high-level sports executive make him a terrific addition to the Cleveland Browns.”

If history is any guide, DePodesta will have 24-36 months to find those pathways to organizational success and to traverse them into the realm of success. Or else – back to baseball…

Here is what I think is the most important aspect of DePodesta going from the Mets to the Browns:

Will the Mets retaliate by trying to sign Johnny Manziel and anointing him as “Johnny Baseball”?

Indy Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay, announced that the Colts will keep both Coach Chuck Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson for next season. Given all of the reports of turmoil and strife amongst those three folks over the last year or so, that was an unexpected move. Here is the deal; the Colts underachieved last year for three reasons – and two of the reasons are intimately related:

2. The OL stunk and could not protect Luck or his replacements

3. The defense stunk; they gave up 51 points to Jax for Heaven’s sake.

Now, how did those situations obtain?

Is this a result of roster-building malfeasance/incompetence?

Or both?

The answer here cannot be “Neither!”

For the 2013 and 2014 seasons, the Colts record was 22-10 – an enviable record on the surface. However, there is a hidden factor at work there. The Colts are in the AFC south with the Jags, Texans and Titans; in 2013 and 2014, those three teams stunk and the colts record against them was 12-0. Against the rest of the NFL, the Colts went a mediocre 10-10. Moreover, the Colts were dispatched from the playoffs in both 2-13 and 2014 by losing blowout games to the Patriots. There is a “smoke-and-mirrors” aspect to that gaudy 22-10 regular season record…

I cannot read minds but it seems to me that keeping everyone in place means that Jim Irsay thinks that the Colts are serious championship contenders in the very near future and he does not want to “piss in the soup” so to speak. If my conclusion is correct here, then I have to say that I do not share Jim Irsay’s rosy view of the team. Yes, the colts have a very good young QB and yes, they have talent at the offensive “skill positions”. However, I do not think they are a player or two away from greatness or a mere “tweak of the scheme” away from elite status in the league.

I said in a rant earlier this week that I was surprised to see the Eagles fire Chip Kelly – not because I think Kelly is a great coach but because Jeffrey Lurie had shown lots of patience in terms of making coaching changes in the past. The never-to-be-labeled “shy” fans in Philly had a vehement faction that wanted Kelly tarred and feathered prior to being ushered out of town. There was a similar venting of spleen in Philly 3 years ago regarding Andy Reid and his ability to find his ass with either hand. And so, I ask Eagles’ fans this rhetorical question:

Are the Eagles a better team today than they were when Andy Reid was fired and Chip Kelly took over?

Before we get to the picks for the week, here are my thoughts on NFL awards for the regular season:

MVP:

Offensive Player of the Year: Carson Palmer – only 1 award per player.

Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt – with Josh Norman a close second.

Rookie of the Year: Amari Cooper – with Todd Gurley and Jameis Winston getting consideration.

Coach of the Year: Ron Rivera – with a tip of the hat to Bruce Arians, Todd Bowles and Andy Reid.

The Games:

Here are the four teams with Bye Weeks:

Broncos:

Patriots: Given the number of injuries to the pats’ OL, I would not be surprised to learn that the team has signed two guys to the roster who have been employed as piano movers in the Boston area for the last 5 years.

Panthers: The Panthers are loose and cocky at 15-1 for the season. Their challenge is not to become the first team with that kind of record to lose their first playoff game.

Cardinals: Are they rooting for the Seahawks to be their opponent next week to avenge that 36-6 drubbing they absorbed only a week ago? Or are they rooting for anyone else to come to town?

(Sat. 4:35 PM EST) KC – 3.5 at Houston (40.5): There is an eerie similarity between these two teams. The Chiefs started out 1-5 having lost their best offensive weapon – RB Jamaal Charles. The Texans started out 2-5 and lost their best running back, Arian Foster. The Chiefs rallied to win 10 in a row finishing 11-5 but could not catch the Broncos who built a huge lead in the early part of the season. The Texans rallied to finish with 7 wins in their last 9 games; that was good enough to get them the AFC South title and hence the venue for this game. If you like historical trends, consider these:

The Chiefs have not won a playoff game on the road since 1993.

Both teams win with defense leading the way. The Chiefs allow only 17.9 points per game; the Texans allow only 19.3 points per game. The Chiefs enjoy a 4 points per game advantage on offense but neither squad will be confused with offensive juggernauts such as Carolina, Arizona or New England. Absent 2 scores by defensive units and/or special team units, I like this game to stay UNDER.

(Sat. 8:15 PM EST) Pittsburgh – 3 at Cincy (45.5): According to reports, Andy Dalton did not practice on Wednesday. Since he has not thrown a pass in anger in about a month, my guess is that means he will not play and AJ McCarron will. That might be comforting to Bengals’ fans in the sense that Dalton cannot lose this playoff game for them as has been his custom for the last several years. According to reports, DeAngelo Williams did not practice for the Steelers on Wednesday and reportedly was “wearing a boot” on Wednesday nursing his leg/ankle injury. That would seem to indicate an even higher dose of Ben Roethlisberger throwing the football on Saturday than is normal – and the Steelers throw the ball a lot. Here are a few trend stats for you:

Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in playoff games with the Bengals.

Ben Roethlisberger is 11-2 against the Bengals in Cincy for his career.

The much-maligned Steelers defense gives up lots of yards per game (363.1); they rank 21st in the NFL in that category. However, that same defense does not give up as many points per game as one might expect (19.9); they rank 11th in the league in that category. The Bengals’ defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 points per game). I surely prefer Ben Roethlisberger over AJ McCarron here in a playoff atmosphere. I’ll take the Steelers to win and cover on the road.

(Sun. 1:05 PM EST) Seattle – 5 at Minnesota (39.5): The Total Line for this game opened at 42.5 and has dropped to this level probably due to folks hearing about where the mercury will drop to come game time. The Vikes play outdoors until their new playpen is finished and the forecast for Sunday calls for the high temperature to be 3 degrees and the low temperature from Saturday night to be minus-10 degrees. Add the forecast of 12 mph winds and you can pretty much figure out that Jerry Lee Lewis could do a halftime show featuring the song:

Whole Lotta Shiverin’ Goin’ On

A month ago, the Seahawks beat the Vikes in Minnesota 38-7; the score that day accurately reflected the better team on the field. Somehow, I do not think the Vikes are “climatically advantaged” over the Seahawks to the point that it would compensate for a 31-point butt-stomping. Oh, and in case you had not noticed, the Seahawks have won 5 consecutive road games going all the way back to October 11. I’ll take the Seahawks and lay the points here.

(Sun. 4:40 PM EST) Green Bay at Washington – 1 (45): This game opened as a “pick ‘em” game. You can still find it that way at 2 Internet sportsbooks. You can also find the game with the Packers as a 1-point favorite at 1 Internet sportsbook. The majority of venues have the game with the Skins as the single-point favorite. The Skins won 9 games this year including their last 4 in a row. That is the good news. Here is the bad news. The Skins did not beat a single team that posted a winning record for the 2015 season. In fact, the Skins only played 3 games against teams with a winning record and here were the outcomes:

For the record, the Packers are 10-6 this season.

Do not get carried away with a case of “Packer euphoria” just yet. The Packers are a flawed team; their wide receivers do not stretch the field; they are only a mediocre running team and their offensive line is injured to the point of marginal competence. The Packers’ defense allows 3.5 points per game fewer than the Skins’ defense does and 33 fewer yards per game than the Skins’ defense. Nonetheless, the Packers are not going to win this game by shutting down the Skins’ offense; if the Packers’ defense is to be the “star of the game” it will have to do it by creating a few turnovers. I make this a venue call; I’ll take the Skins to win and cover at home.

Finally, here is my wish for this week – or for the remainder of the playoff games for that matter:

Let there be no officiating blunders that directly affect the outcome of any of the games regardless of which team benefits from said blundering.

There have been far too many blunders this year even with the intervention of replay. I hope we all have seen the full quota of such events for the season; we do not need any more.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 12/27/15

Allow me just moment of gloating here. Last week’s Mythical Picks were outstanding; the record for the week was 12-4-0. If I were one of those touts on TV, I would scream at the top of my lungs that I have a “documented” 75% win rate picking NFL games and that everyone should call my toll-free hotline and buy my picks for the rest of the season at a greatly reduced rate because I am so smart and so magnanimous and so – – phony. Indeed, last week was a great week of Mythical Picking; the reality is that the inclusion of that great week into the season record makes the season record 115-113-5.

Nonetheless, the season record is mythically unprofitable playing against a 10% vig.

The Coin Flip Games were in the black too with a 2-1-0 record. That bring’s the coin’s season record to 16-17-1.

The “Best Picks” from last week were the picks in the Eagles/Cards game. I liked the Cards minus 3 points and the Cards covered easily; I also liked the game to go OVER 51 and it did so.

The “Worst Pick” was taking the Niners + 6 points against the Bengals. The Niners lost by only 10 points but it took two garbage-time TDs for them to get that close.

Please notice that I was being completely sarcastic above when I said people should call to subscribe to my Mythical Picks for the rest of the season. No one should even think of doing that; in fact, no one can do that because there is no way to subscribe to my Mythical Picking service other than to read on from here. It would be the height of folly for anyone to use any information here as the basis for making a real wager involving real money on a real NFL game this weekend. Here is how dumb one would have to be to do that:

You think “Instagram” is having your grandmother on speed-dial.

General Comments:

In the battle for “supremacy” in the AFC South, the Texans beat the Colts 16-10. The Texans won in Indy for the first time in franchise history – and remember, since these teams are in the same division, the Texans have played the Colts in Indy every year of their existence. It was not that long ago when the Colts were on a winning streak and people were asking – in a serious tone of voice – if the Colts should keep playing Matt Hasselbeck at QB even if Andrew Luck were healthy enough to return to action. Look, Matt Hasselbeck is a warrior and he has earned every dime of whatever his contract calls for him to make. However, behind that marginal OL, he has taken a beating – as did Andrew Luck – and Hasselbeck’s 40-year old body is just not ready to take much more of the same.

The Texans’ defense dominated the game. The Colts managed only 190 yards total offense in the game and a truly meager 68 yards of offense in the second half of the game. The Texans started TJ Yates at QB but he went down with an ACL injury; their starter, Brian Hoyer, is still in the concussion protocol – the second time this year he has been part of that convention. Coming off the bench to “save the day” was none other than Brandon Weeden. There is some delicious irony here:

Dallas had to replace its starting QB for reasons of inadequacy and turned to Kellen Moore. Weeden was no longer available to them.

Now, if Hoyer is still not cleared to play and if the Texans make the playoffs, Weeden will be the QB for a team from Texas in the playoffs. Simultaneously, the Cowboys will be sitting at home watching the games.

Please do not misinterpret what I just said. Brandon Weeden still has a long way to go if he is to be labeled as a journeyman back-up QB. But, he took the fall in Dallas for the Cowboys’ demise in the middle of the season and none of the QB play for the Cowboys since his departure has been even as good as mediocre. Nice move by the folks in Dallas who do “roster building”…

The Jets needed a field goal with about 30 seconds left in the game to beat the Cowboys 19-16 last week. The Cowboys lifted Ryan Mallet and inserted Kellen Moore for his first extended action in an actual NFL game. He threw a TD pass in the first half to give the Cowboys a halftime lead; unfortunately, he also threw 3 INTs as rookie QBs are wont to do.

With this loss, the Cowboys are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Even Cinderella’s Fairy Godmother cannot help them now.

The Cardinals easily handled the Eagles by a score of 40-17. Rookie RB, David Johnson from Northern Iowa, had himself a game. He ran for 187 yards and 3 TDs leading a Cardinals’ running game that gained 230 yards on the ground. The win was the 12th one for the Cardinals and it marks the first time in franchise history that a Cards’ team has won 12 games.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been around for a while with incarnations as the Chicago Cardinals (1920 – 1960) and the St. Louis Cardinals (1961 – 1987) before becoming the Arizona Cardinals.

The Eagles did nothing to help their cause by turning the ball over 4 times in the second half of a game where they only trailed 17-10 at halftime.

The Panthers remained undefeated last week beating the Giants 38-35. The Panthers led 35-7 late in the 3rd quarter and had the game on cruise control thereby letting the Giants score 28 straight points to tie the game. At that point, Cam Newton put it back in “serious mode” and led the Panthers to the game-winning field goal. For the game, Cam Newton became the first QB in NFL history to rush for 100 yards and throw for 5 TDs in the same game.

Here is something I said in last week’s Mythical Picks:

“For the ‘game within a game’ think about seeing Odell Beckham, Jr. being covered all day long by Josh Norman. That alone could be worth the price of admission.”

I wish that confrontation had limited itself to straight football. The antics by both players was unattractive at best and closer to disgusting on the spectrum of behaviors. Without rehashing here is my reaction to what happened:

Josh Norman did not distinguish himself with his actions in the game. He is a defensive back and not a ju-jitsu competitor. He was flagged for 2 penalties and could easily have been flagged for a half-dozen.

Where was the “leadership” on the sidelines from players and/or coaches to put a stop to the nonsense on the field?

How did the officials allow that kind of thing to escalate? Yes, they called penalties on some of the confrontations; when that did not work, why did they allow the combatants to remain in the game?

The Skins took over the lead in the NFC East beating the Bills 35-25 in a game that was not that close; the Skins led 28-3 and controlled every phase of the game. The Bills’ season was on the precipice; if they lost, they were done; even if they won, they needed some other things to break in their favor, but a loss was going to be catastrophic. In that milieu, they came out as flat as Kansas. The Bills are now out of the playoffs for the 16th consecutive season. I guess you can hang some of the blame on the coaching staff for the team coming out flat; I know you can hand some of the blame on the coaching staff for these two events in the game:

In the second half, the Bills used a timeout with 11:02 left to play in the third quarter. After 20 minutes of halftime to get organized and to get things straight about what had to be done in the second half to salvage the game, the team was sufficiently discombobulated that it had to burn a timeout after only 3:58 of action.

The Pats beat the Titans 33-16 last week. Just as the Cardinals unleashed a new RB on the Eagles, the Pats put Joey Iosefa into NFL action for the first time. Iosefa played at Hawaii in college; he was drafted by the Bucs this year and played for the Brooklyn Bolts in the FXFL (the Fall Experimental Football League) this year. Last week, he carried the ball 14 times for 51 yards playing the role vacated by LeGarrette Blount due to Blount’s hip injury. Iosefa is listed as 6’0” and 247 lbs.

Marcus Mariota had to leave the game in the second quarter with a knee injury; frankly, I do not think that changed the outcome of the game at all.

The Chargers beat the Dolphins 30-14. If that was indeed the last game for the Chargers in San Diego, at least they go out with a win. On the other hand, it was a contest that sought to identify the least worst team in town that day. The Dolphins were indeed the worse of the two pounding out all of 77 yards of offense in the first half. Danny Woodhead caught 3 TD passes in the game.

The Lions beat the Saints 35-27 in a meaningless game that was not particularly entertaining to watch. Here is how bad it was:

I went back to the football game – – but I wondered how many other fans would have done that if they had made the same discovery that I did. The game was indeed, that bad…

The Saints’ pass defense is poised to be the labeled the worst pass defense in NFL history. The record for most passing TDs allowed is 40 and it was set by the Denver Broncos back in the wild-and-wooly days of the AFL in the early 1960s. With two games left to play, the Saints have given up 39 passing TDs – – almost 3 per game. The next two opponents for the Saints will be the Jags and the Falcons. The question is this:

What will be the passing combination that scores the 41st passing TD this season hanging that level of humiliation on this Saints’ defense?

One of the Saints’ defenders has already set an NFL record with two games still to play. Brandon Browner has now committed the most penalties called on an individual player in NFL history. The previous record was 22; Browner has already taken the flag 24 times in 2015 and 21 of those penalties have been accepted. As a DB, Browner’s penalties have been very serious in that they give the opposition a first down. Here is a breakdown:

Defensive holding:

Pass interference: This is always a first down; there have been 3 of those.

Face mask: This is always a first down; there have been 3 of those.

Unnecessary roughness: This is always a first down; there have been 3 of those.

Illegal contact: This is always a first down; there has been 1 of those.

The Steelers beat the Broncos 34-27 last week rallying from a 27-13 deficit at halftime. When asked how the team did that, Mike Tomlin had a simple explanation:

“We stopped kicking our own butts.”

Indeed, the Steelers shut out the Broncos in the second half but it was more than just keeping them out of the end zone; the Steelers dominated the second half. The Broncos had the ball 9 times in the second half and here are the results of those ‘drives”;

Punt
Punt
Punt – one more time
Punt
Punt
Punt – yet again
Interception
Ball goes over on downs
Ball goes over on downs

If I have read the game chart correctly, the most productive drive for the Broncos in the second half was a 4-play drive that gained 29 yards before ending in a punt. The total yardage amassed by the Broncos in the second half was 72 yards. Brock Osweiler has done some really nice things in his first starting QB opportunities this year; the second half of this game was not one of those really nice things.

The Bengals survived their first week having to start back up QB, AJ McCarron; the Bengals beat the Niners 24-14. The game was 24-0 in the second half and the Niners scored twice in what amounted to “extended garbage time”; this was not a close game at all. Blaine Gabbert threw the ball 50 times in this game; 3 of those were INTs. The only real bright spot for the Niners was that it held the Bengals’ running game in check; the Bengals ran the ball 36 times for 68 yards – less than 2 yards per attempt.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 34-14; it was the 8th straight win for the Chiefs after a 5-game losing streak that had the team record at 1-5 back in October. The Chiefs scored twice on defense; one was a long “scoop and score” after a fumble; the other was a “Pick Six”. The Ravens scored one of their TDs on the final play of the first half with a Hail Mary pass from 50 yards out.

The Seahawks beat the Browns 30-13. Russell Wilson had another highly efficient day gong 21-30 for 249 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Doug Baldwin caught 2 of those TD passes. Johnny Manziel played QB for the Browns and he played well enough to demonstrate that the Browns need to consider him as their QB for next year if they do not stumble across a better candidate between now and the start of training camp in 2016. The Seahawks’ defense is really playing well; against that unit, Manziel was 19-32 for 161 yards plus 1 TD and 1 INT. Those are not eye-popping numbers, but they are not “throw-up all over your shoes numbers” either. The Browns only managed to run 52 plays in this game.

The Vikings beat the Bears 38-17 and maintained their position in the NFC wild card picture. The Bears’ OL seemingly took the day off because the Vikes sacked Jay Cutler 5 times in this game. Terry Bridgewater threw 4 TDs in the game and ran for the other score himself. The outcome of this game was not in doubt for long…

The Packers beat the Raiders 30-20 holding onto their 1-game lead in the NFC North. The Raiders defense played well here; they held Aaron Rodgers to 204 yards passing and the Packers offense to a total of only 293 yards. Often, that is enough to win a game but last week Derek Carr had a really bad game. He threw 2 INTs; one of them was a “Pick Six”; the other gave the Packers the ball in the Raiders’ red zone; those two throws basically handed 14 points over to the Packers. Amari Cooper continued to show that he is going to be an elite WR in this league; he caught 6 passes last week for 120 yards and 2 TDs.

The Falcons beat the Jags 23-17. This win brings the Falcons back to .500 and the loss shows that the Jags are not yet ready for prime-time despite being only one game out of first place in the AFC South at kickoff time. The win snapped a 5-game losing streak for the Falcons and may have lowered owner Arthur Blank’s blood pressure to manageable levels. Julio Jones caught 9 passes for 119 yards and a TD; not a bad performance. The game was tied at 17-17 after 3 quarters; the Falcons got 2 field goals in the 4th quarter, but the story was the performance of the Falcons’ defense in the 4th quarter to seal the win:

1st Jax possession:

2nd Jax possession: 3-and-out, 6 yards, 1 minute 49 seconds.

3rd Jax possession: 6 plays, 30 yards, 39 seconds, ball goes over on downs.

The Games:

(Thurs Nite 12/24) San Diego at Oakland – 6 (46.5): Last week, the Chargers played what may have been their last game in San Diego and they used that as a momentum builder in a game against a less-than-mediocre Dolphins squad. Flip the script here. The Raiders are playing what may be their last game in Oakland (the Raiders go on the road next week to KC) against a less-than-mediocre opponent. In terms of anything else that might give meaning to this contest, the only thing I can come up with is this:

If the Raiders win, they will avoid another double-digit losing season – something they seem to have specialized in over the last decade or so.

That is not exactly a rousing locker room speech… Nonetheless, I’ll take the Raiders and lay the points.

(Sat Nite 12/26) Washington at Philly – 3 (47): If the Skins win, they are the NFC East champion and go to the playoffs; if the Skins lose, it is still a 3-way race in the NFC East. On defense, the Skins give up 370 yards per game putting them 25th in the NFL; the Eagles give up 393.3 yards per game putting them 29th. I see points happening in this game so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

(Sun Nite 12/27) Giants at Minnesota – 5.5 (45.5): This is the “flex game” for the week. The Giants have to win if they want to stay in the NFC East 3-way race – assuming the Eagles beat the Skins on Saturday night. If that incentive is gone, the Giants have nothing to play for and with Odell Beckham Jr. suspended they have a seriously diminished squad to play with. The Vikes can cement themselves in the NFC playoffs with win. The availability/effectiveness of Adrian Peterson is up in the air; he left last week’s game with an ankle injury and did not practice on Wednesday this week. Still, I do like the Vikes ability to throw the ball against the Giants’ meager pass defense. I’ll take the Vikes at home and lay the points.

Chicago at Tampa – 3 (45.5): So far, I have been able to impute some sort of value to the games on the menu for the week. For this one, it is a stretch indeed. The Bucs still have a shot at finishing at .500 for the season if they win out; the Bears – – well, they are sure to show up for the rest of their scheduled games. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game; the coin says to take the Bears plus the points. Remember folks, these are Mythical Picks done for fun…

Carolina – 7 at Atlanta (47): The Panthers continue their quest for an undefeated season; the Falcons continue their quest for time off in January. Last time these teams met in Charlotte, the final score was 38-0; presumably that will give the Falcons some reason to play with a tad of emotion. Maybe the way the Falcons’ defense showed up in the 4th quarter last week (see above) was a portent of their effort this week? Purely a hunch, make this a venue call; I’ll take the Falcons plus the points.

Dallas at Buffalo – 6 (42.5): The Total Line opened the week at 44 and has been sagging all week long. You can find it at 42 at one Internet sportsbook this morning. Kellen Moore gets his first NFL start against the Bills’ defense. I am not a Rex Ryan acolyte, but he does present a defense that has a variety of ways to play; a first time starter might have some difficulty with that. Moore has been in the NFL for 4 seasons but last week was his first action in a real game; I think he might just be faked out with some of the wrinkles the Bills will show him here. One would think the venue would be part of the selection here but the Bills are only 3-3 at home while the Cowboys are much better on the road than they are at home. This year the Cowboys are 3-4 on the road and 1-6 at home. I like the Bills to win and cover.

Jax at New Orleans – 3.5 (51.5): This game got lots of consideration from the Selection Committee for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Both teams are 5-9; it is an inter-conference game so there is no sort of natural rivalry involved between teams that meet – on balance – once every 4 years. The only thing here that might be interesting would be a shoot-out. Both teams can score; the Saints are 9th in the NFL in points per game and the Jags are 12th; given their records you should expect that both defenses leave something to be desired. Because I said there would be a pick for e very game, I’ll take this game to go OVER.

SF at Detroit – 9.5 (43): The spread opened at 7.5 and has been climbing all week; you can find it as high as 10 points at 2 sportsbooks this morning. Here we have the winner for the title of Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Look, the Niners are a bad team and they are on the road where their record this year is 1-6. However, I am not sanguine about taking the Lions and laying more than a TD against another team consisting of guys who collect paychecks for playing football. I will hold my nose and avert my eyes as I take the Niners plus the points here.

Cleveland at KC – 12 (43): The Chiefs have won 8 in a row; if they win out, they are guaranteed a wild-card slot in the playoffs and they could still be the AFC West champions and host a playoff game. The Browns – – are the Browns. However, that is an awfully fat line – almost as fat as Andy Reid. I’ll take the Browns plus the points even though I have no inkling that they might win the game outright.

Indy at Miami – 2.5 (44): The spread opened at 1 point and has moved up as the week progressed. The Dolphins are 5-9; they are out of the playoffs; at home this year they are only 2-4. And they are favored here over a Colts’ team that is 6-8 (better overall record) and 3-4 on the road (better record than the Dolphins at home). The Colts can still win the AFC South but that depends on them winning out. I do not understand this line. Therefore, I will go with my gut and take the Colts plus the points.

New England – 3.5 at Jets (46): The Pats are guaranteed a Bye Week in the playoffs; as of this morning, they hold a 1-game lead over the Bengals and a 2-game lead over the Broncos for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That sounds like lots of incentive for this game until you consider what the Jets are looking at. The only way into the playoffs for the Jets is as a wild card; as of this morning, the Jets, Chiefs and Steelers have identical records at 9-5. However, if all three wind up with the same record at the end of the season, the Jets will lose out on tie-breakers. Therefore, the Jets have to win out AND have either the Steelers or Chiefs lose one of their final 2 games. This week, the Steelers play the Ravens and the Chiefs play the Browns and both are double-digit favorites. The Jets have to win this game. The Jets normally play the Pats well and they are at home. I like that hook on top of a field-goal’s worth of points in the spread. I’ll take the Jets plus the points.

Houston at Tennessee (no lines): The starting QB for both teams remains up in the air as of this morning so the lack of any lines is no surprise. In terms of motivation, the Texans lead their division by a game; if they win out, they make the playoffs. The Titans sport the worst record in the NFL as of this morning; enough said. Bottom Line:

I can’t make a pick if there are no lines.

Green Bay at Arizona – 4 (49.5): Both of these teams are going to be in the NFC playoffs. The Packers currently lead the Vikes in the NFC North and the division winner hosts a game so there is incentive there. The Cards can still get home field advantage by winning out so long as the Panthers lose out too. Hey, it could happen. While it might seem as if the Packers have the motivational edge, I think that will not be enough to overcome the edge the Cards have on offense against the Packers’ defense. I like the Cards at home to win and cover.

St Louis at Seattle – 13 (40.5): The Total Line opened at 42 and dropped to this level very quickly. I like both defenses in this game and you could convince me that the Rams will struggle to score more than 13 points. However, even in that scenario, covering 13 pints is a challenge. Last week, the Seahawks covered 15 points against the Browns; the Rams are hardly a top-shelf team, but they are better than the Browns. I’ll take the Rams plus the points.

Pittsburgh – 10 at Baltimore (47): The Steelers are on a roll; they have won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games. Even in their most recent loss, they scored 30 points on the Seahawks’ defense. In the last 6 games the Steelers are scoring an average of 35 points per game. The Ravens are reduced to playing their JV squad. As mentioned above relative to the Jets’ playoff situation, the Steelers will make the playoffs with a three-way tie for the wild card but the only way for the Steelers to assure that sort of thing is to win out. They play an out-manned Ravens’ squad this week and the Browns next week. If they lose a game there, it will be a self-inflicted wound. I do not think the Ravens can keep this one close. I’ll take the Steelers and lay all of those points even on the road.

(Mon Nite 12/28) Cincy at Denver – 3.5 (40.5): The Total Line opened at 42, dropped to this level right away and has stayed here for the balance of the week. This is the Game of the Week – and ESPN deserves a good game for MNF after last week’s Saints/Lions hot mess. The Broncos are 10-4; the Bengals are 11-3; both of them are looking up at the Pats who are 12-2. Two of those three teams will have a Bye Week in the Playoffs and one of them will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Broncos win keeps their hopes alive for a Bye Week; a loss dooms those hopes. Both defenses are top-shelf; the Broncos lead the NFL in yards allowed per game and the Bengals are 9th in the league. Both teams will start inexperienced QBs meaning that offensive stats for the entire season are not really applicable here. I see this game going down to the final possession in a game were points will be scarce. Therefore, I will take the Bengals plus the points.

This is the last offering of Mythical Picks for the calendar year and for the NFL regular season. Family events will preclude Mythical Picks for Week 17 but absent some sort of cataclysm, I will be back in the Mythical Picking arena for the start of the NFL playoffs in January.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 12/20/15

Regarding last week’s Mythical Picks, there is good news and bad news. The good news is that the picks last week were better than the embarrassingly bad picks from two weeks ago (5-11-0). The bad news is that last week’s picks were not sufficiently better to enable them to reach the .500 level. Last week’s record was 7-9-0 bringing the overall season record to 103-109-5. The only Coin Flip Game last week was a loser; that drops the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game record to 14-17-1.

The “Best Picks” from last week involved the Broncos/Raiders’ game. I took the game to stay Under 43 and it did; I also took the Raiders plus 7 points and the Raiders won straight up.

The “Worst Picks” from last week were taking the Falcons plus 8 points against the Panthers and watching them lose 38-0. Also, I took the Chiefs/Chargers game to go OVER 45 and the total score was a meager 13 points.

Nevertheless, a new weekend and a fresh menu of games stands in front of me for picking this week. Naturally, no one should read anything here and take it to be sufficiently informative that one would use said information as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money. One would have to be pretty stupid to do such a thing; here is how stupid:

You could be tripped up by the cord on a cell phone.

General Comments:

The Dallas Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoffs despite their 4-9 record because they happen to reside in the NFC East were the other three teams are either miserable or inconsistent or both. The Cowboys actually have a path to become the division winner – and thereby claim a spot in the playoffs – should they win out and every other game involving the other three NFC East teams goes according to a Cowboy-friendly script.

The three upcoming opponents for the Cowboys are the Jets, the Bills (in Buffalo) and the Skins. That is not necessarily a “Trifecta of Doom” although every one of those opponents has a better record than do the Cowboys. Let me just say that while the Cowboys have a path to the playoffs, it is not a path without significant obstacles.

Perhaps one of the Cowboys’ positive assets as they aim to win their final three games is that owner/GM Jerry Jones seems to have begun to confront the reality that the Cowboys are not a very good team. No longer is it “Tony Romo’s injuries” that are to blame; perhaps, he is beginning to see that the roster has holes. In the aftermath of last week’s loss to the Packers by 3 TDs, someone asked Jones if Tony Romo’s availability over the course of the season was what stood between the Cowboys and the Panthers or the Cardinals as the elite teams of the NFC. Jones showed a smidgen of awareness and analysis with his answer:

“I don’t have the heart to put us in with those clubs right now, because I don’t want to — we’ve got more work to do than just get Romo healthy.”

With those words, it would seem as if this is one of those rare moments where Jerry Jones’ mind trumps Jerry Jones’ heart. The Cowboys are not an elite team and it would have taken more than a healthy Tony Romo to make them one in 2015. I will posit three areas where the Cowboys needed to be a whole lot better this year to aspire to top-shelf status:

Run defense:

Offense: The Cowboys are 28th in the NFL in total offense.

Pass rush: The Cowboys have 25 sacks this season; just as a reference, the Lions have 34 sacks and the Titans have 35 sacks and no one is confusing either the Lions or the Titans with an elite defense.

One very specific weakness for the Cowboys this season would be painful for Jerry Jones to acknowledge after all that has gone before. Dez Bryant has been awful this year; last week he dropped 3 passes that hit him in both hands; his total production for the game was 1 reception for a grand total of 9 yards. Back in the summer after a holdout that kept Bryant away from all the offseason team activities, GM Jerry Jones signed Bryant to a 5-year contract worth up to $70M with $45M of that contract guaranteed. For that kind of money, it is reasonable to expect a receiver to catch any ball that hits both of his hands and to catch more than one ball in a game.

The other three teams in the NFC East all sport 6-7 records this morning; clearly, each of those teams has a more realistic shot at the division championship and the playoffs than do the Cowboys but none of the three are exactly “reliable”.

Skins:

Eagles: Upcoming opponents have a combined record of 23-16. However, 2 of the final 3 games are at home.

Giants: Upcoming opponents have a combined record of 27-12. However, 2 of the final 3 games are at home.

Fans of all the NFC East teams will focus on the division race over the next several weeks but I would like to take a moment here to step back and look further down the road. The NFC East winner will almost certainly have to be the #4 seed in the NFC playoffs. That means the NFC East winner – whoever it is – will host the #5 seed and right now, that looks to be the Seattle Seahawks. Given the way the Seahawks have played in their past several games, that is not going to be a walk in the park.

I am not alone in that thinking. In Las Vegas, you can wager on what team will win the NFC Championship in late January. There is no spread involved; you just need to name the winner. The Seahawks are not in first place in their division and have only the slimmest of chances of winning the NFC West. Nonetheless, the odds on the Seahawks being the NFC Champions and playing in the Super Bowl in February are only 3-1 as of this morning. By comparison, here are the odds for all of the NFC East teams to win the NFC Championship:

I like the Seahawks at 3-1 much better than any of those NFC East teams at those elevated odds.

The AFC South has a similar race going on. The Colts and Texans meet this week to break their tie on top of the division. Both teams bring 6-7 records to the game. Just one game back with 3 left to play are the Jags at 5-8. Here is how Las Vegas assesses the AFC South teams winning the AFC Championship:

Personally, I think the odds for the Colts and the Jags are way too low; those look like sucker bets to me. I do not think the Texans can win the AFC Championship but of the three odds above, I guess the Texans at 50-1 looks like the best one to me.

In last week’s action, the Packers beat the Cowboys 28-7; it was a beat-down. The Packers ran the ball for 231 yards. It would appear as if Aaron Rodgers had an “off game” with only 218 yards but in reality the passing total was low because there was no good reason for the Packers to throw the ball very often. The Cowboys’ pass offense continued to be anemic accounting for only 114 yards and a 455 completion rate.

In that game, it appeared as if the Cowboys were afraid even to try to throw the ball downfield to any of their receivers. I can only recall two “long passes” in the entire game; of the other 27 pass attempts, I would estimate that 22 of those were thrown to receivers less than 10 yards downfield. I understand that there is a backup QB in the game for the Cowboys, but if the offense NEVER takes a shot down the field, the defense can play tight and thwart the short passing game and the running game. The Cowboys had 5 “three-and-outs” in the game and were a miserable 1 for 11 on third down conversions.

The Eagles beat the Bills 23-20 to remain in contention for the NFC East title. The Bills had more total offense and won the “time of possession battle” but they lost the game. Here is why the Bills lost:

The loss dropped the Bills below .500 for the season and dealt a significant blow to any playoff hopes they may have continued to harbor…

The Skins beat the Bears 23-20. For the second week in a row, Robbie Gould missed a field goal that was critical to the game. Two weeks ago, he had a shot at along field goal to win the game; last week he had a medium field goal to tie the game; he missed both of them. That is unusual because for his career, Gould is a very high percentage kicker; his career percentage for field goals made is 85.1%. The Skins were led by TE Jordan Reed who caught 9 passes in the game including one for a TD.

The Giants kept pace in the NFC East beating the Dolphins on Monday night in hot/humid Miami. A screen graphic during the game said it was 74 degrees with 90% humidity; interestingly, as the game wore on, it seemed as if the Dolphins who live and work in that climate were the ones to wilt; the Giants looked fresher and stronger at the end by a significant margin. So much for the Dan Campbell Tough Guy Mode… Eli Manning picked the Dolphins apart all night long. He completed 27 out of 31 pass attempts; that is hard to do in a practice session; on some pass plays, the Giants’ receivers were so wide open that you might have thought they had not showered in a month.

The Steelers beat the Bengals 33-20 last week but the Bengals losses were far more important than this single game. On the same drive, the Bengals lost TE Tyler Eifert and QB Andy Dalton. People have jumped all over backup QB AJ McCarron for saying that he wants to be the second coming of Tom Brady. Of course he hopes to be that; he is a low-round draft pick who has to step in for a successful starting QB who is out with an injury just like Tom Brady. Now, what Brady did with that opportunity was to win 4 Super Bowls and forge a Hall of Fame career; is it shocking to think that McCarron might not want the same thing to happen to him?

Having said that, the odds are against the Bengals right about now and it is possible if they lose all of their remaining games that they may not even make it to the playoffs. The Bengals had dodged the injury bug for the first part of the season but they were severely stung last week. Less visible than the loss of Eifert and Dalton is an injury to Adam Jones in the Bengals secondary. Once Jones got his life under control, he became a very good defensive back; with him out of action here is what Ben Roethlisberger did last week:

30 for 39 for 282 yards.

Equally important, the Steelers were 8-14 on third down conversions. If the Seahawks are the team in the NFC that one should not aspire to meet in the playoffs, the Steelers are the analogous team in the AFC.

[Aside: This was not a kinder and gentler year for starting QBs in the AFC North. Roethlisberger, Dalton, Joe Flacco and Josh McCown all spent time on the sidelines recovering from injuries.]

The Browns beat the Niners 24-10. Most folks have focused on the positive aspects of Johnny Manziel’s performance in the game and that is as it should be. The Browns need to see him play real football against NFL defenses in order to assess if he is going to be their “QB Going Forward”. Last week was a positive showing even considering that the opponent was a bottom-feeder; any time a QB leads an offense to 481 yards of total offense in an NFL game, it is a plus. The Niners’ defense ranks 30th in the league; only the Saints and Giants are worse; the Niners yield 402 yards per game.

As marginal as the Niners are on defense, there is a much more serious question that needs asking as a result of last week’s game:

The Browns recorded only 17 sacks in the first 12 games of this season and they got 9 sacks in this one game. Incredible…

Oh, just to complete the reporting on the Niners’ performance last week, they generated all of 48 yards on offense in the first half of the game.

The Seahawks manhandled the Ravens last week 35-6. I do not want to put too fine a point on it, but when a team has to have Jimmy Claussen throw the ball 40 times in a game, that team is not is a good position to win. That is what happened to the Ravens last week – and indeed they did not win. The Seahawks lost RB Thomas Rawls for the rest of the year with a broken bone in his ankle; that will not help the Seahawks but given the way Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockette are lighting it up in the passing game, the Seahawks look to have sufficient offense to stay hot. Also, there is reason to believe that Marshawn Lynch will be back for a playoff run…

The Jags beat the Colts 51-16 last week. In the past two weeks, the Jags have scored 90 points in their two games and their record is 1-1 in those two games. It appears that the offense has come to life in Jax but the defense has gone into hibernation. Actually, the Jags scored on offense and on defense (scoop-and-score on a fumble) and on special teams (punt return). The Colts had won 16 consecutive games over AFC South opponents going into this game; that streak came to a crashing halt here.

There were reports that Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay, was so irate at the team performance two weeks ago at Pittsburgh that he left the stadium early, went to his private jet and split; he was not around to see the final score of 45-10 I have not confirmed that with the pilot, but let me assume the reports are accurate. If he was pissed at the team for losing to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, imagine how he must have felt seeing the Colts dominated by the Jaguars by the same 35-point margin of victory. The Colts squeezed 4 wins out of backup QB, Matt Hasselbeck, in the wake of Andrew Luck suffering a lacerated kidney; it would appear that Hasselbeck’s good fortune has gone the way of Cinderella’s carriage.

Hasselbeck is still #1 on the depth chart despite appearing to injure his throwing shoulder in last week’s game; Charlie Whitehurst is listed as #2 with Andrew Luck at #3 and yet to be healed lacerated kidney. The only other QB on the roster is on the practice squad; Alex Tanney has been in the NFL since 2012 and has been on the practice squads for 6 other teams before signing on with the Colts. If Matt Hasselbeck is indeed injured, the Colts’ QB situation looks rather bleak…

The Texans could not capitalize on the Colt’s misfortunes last week because the Texans had to play the Patriots and the Texans lost 27-6. The focus here was on the return of Rob Gronkowski who had 4 catches and a TD in the game. However, the biggest deal in the game from my perspective was the Pats’ defense which recorded 6 sacks in the game and gave up no TDs. The Texans could only muster 189 yards of offense for the game.

The Pats took advantage of the fact that the Bengals and the Broncos both lost last weekend. The Pats had been the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs last Sunday morning; today they are the #1 overall seed …

The Panthers beat the Falcons 38-0. I saw a bit of the replay of this game and the parts that I saw were pure domination by the Panthers. Falcons’ fans and commentators have been highly critical of Matt Ryan over the past month or so. Ryan did not have anything near a good game here but you cannot pin this loss on his behind. Consider these stats and tell me how the loss could possibly be the fault of the Falcons’ QB:

in the first quarter of the game!

The Saints beat the Bucs 24-17 last week leaving the Bucs 2 games behind the Vikes and the Seahawks for the two wild card slots with only 3 games left to play. Drew Brees threw for 300+ yards and 2 TDs in the game and ended a 4-game losing streak for the Saints. Going into this game, the Saints had the worst defense in the league; the Bucs offense did not exploit that and this week the Saints’ defense ranks 31st in the league. The Giants have taken over the “worst defense” label…

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 10-3. Philip Rivers played the game with a case of the flu and got exactly no support from the Chargers’ running game; they ran the ball 18 times for 44 yards. Rivers also did not get much support from the Chargers’ OL; they allowed the Chiefs to sack Rivers 5 times in the game. Notwithstanding all of that, the Chargers had a chance to tie the game at the end; the final play was an incomplete pass with the ball at the Chiefs’ 1-yardline. The play selection says a lot about the Chargers’ confidence in the run game…

The Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver 15-12 in a strange game indeed. For the entire first half, the Raiders amasses a total of minus-12 yards on offense. They trailed 12-0 because every time the Broncos threatened the end zone, the Raiders’ defense made them kick a field goal. In fact, the Broncos were in the red zone 3 times last week and never crossed the goal line. It is not as if the Raiders’ offense became a force majeure in the second half because the Raiders’ total offense for the day was only 126 yards; teams do not win with that offensive output very often…

There was an incredibly strange call by the Raiders’ coaching staff in this game. Leading 15-12 in the fourth quarter as the result of a Raider’s TD, they decided to go for a 2-point conversion. At that point in the game, leading by 5 points is the same as leading by 4 points; the opposition has to score a TD to get ahead of you. The 2-point conversion try failed and the Raiders then had to defend against a Broncos’ field goal as well as a Broncos’ TD for the balance of the game. Not a good choice there…

Defense dominated in Denver; neither the Broncos nor the Raiders were able to run the ball at all in this game; consider these stats:

The Rams beat the Lions last week in a meaningless game. In the first half, the Lions were sleepwalking; here is the outcome of their first half possessions:

Punt, punt, punt again, throw a Pick-Six, punt, time expires.

The Rams did not exactly exploit that largesse; the Rams led 7-0 at the half thanks to that Pick-Six in the middle of those possessions. The Rams did run the ball effectively in the game. Todd Gurley carried 16 times for 140 yards and 2 TDs and the Rams ran for a total of 203 yards in the game.

The Jets beat the Titans 30-8 last week to hold onto the second wild card position in the AFC. I have read this in 3 different places so I believe it to be correct even though I could not prove this to you if pressed:

If the Jets, Chiefs and Steelers all win out and wind up in a 3-way tie for the 2 AFC wild card slots, the Jets will be the odd-team out.

Jets’ DT, Muhammad Wilkerson had 3 sacks in the game giving him 12 sacks for the year; that is an impressive performance for a defensive tackle – particularly a defensive tackle that will be a free agent in this offseason. Wilkerson and his defensive colleagues held the Titans to 24 yards rushing for the day; they recorded a total of 5 sacks; the Jets’ defense simply dominated the game. On offense, the Jets were in sync too; they racked up 439 yards of offense.

The Cards beat the Vikes 23-20 last week. [Aside: Three games finished with the same 23-20 score last week. That is not a common occurrence nor is that a common final score.] Teddy Bridgewater threw for 317 yards in the game and what became apparent as the game went on was that the Cards had more than a bit of difficulty getting any sort of pass rush on him without bringing at least one and often multiple blitzers.

The Games:

Last night the Rams beat the Bucs 31-23 in a game that was of marginal importance and was of marginal interest. The Rams scooted off to a 14-0 lead early and the game sort of coasted along after that. The loss eliminates the Bucs from the NFC playoffs but they do have 6 wins to this point in the season and considering that they only had 2 wins last year, the improvement has been significant

(Sat Nite) Jets – 3.5 at Dallas (41.5): The spread opened the week at 2.5 points and has been creeping up all week long. This game does not carry a lot of marquee value but there is something positive to day about the matchup. The Jets need a win to stay in the wild card race and the Cowboys need a win if you believe they still have a shot at the NFC East Championship (see above). Interestingly, both teams have a Top-10 defense in terms of yards allowed but no in points allowed. The Jets like to run the football; they average 29 rushes per game and 117 yards per game. The Cowboys give up 113 yards per game so I expect the Jets to be able to do what they like to do in this game. I’ll take the Jets to win and cover on the road.

Chicago at Minnesota – 6.5 (42.5): The spread opened at 5 points and has risen all week; this morning you can find it as high as 7 points at one of the Internet sportsbooks. The Vikes needs the game much more than the Bears do; the Vikes are solidly in the wild card race and are only 1 game behind the Packers in the NFC North. The Bears cannot croon Bing Crosby’s carol, I’ll Be Home for Christmas because the regular season goes until 3 January, but they will be home right after that. However, the Bears are not just going through the motions; they lost last week to the Skins but they played hard and played well. Just a hunch here; I like the Bears plus the points.

Atlanta at Jax – 3 (49): On Oct 11th, the Falcons were 5-0. If you had told owner Arthur Blank on Oct 12th that his team would be 3-point dogs to the Jags in this spot and/or that his team would be on a 6-game losing streak going into this game, he might have had you tested for recreational drug use. The Falcons’ defense has not been good for a good stretch of this season, but they still give up 5 points per game less than the Jags’ defense does. For whatever “momentum” means, it is heading in opposite directions for these teams. The Falcons have lost 6 in row and lost last week 38-0. The Jags are only a game behind in their division – somewhere no one would have predicted for this team even a month ago – and they won last week by 5 TDs. However, I cannot play “momentum” with teams that have losing records and inconsistent performances. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Falcons plus the points. Wow! Remember, these are Mythical Picks; in the real world I would not wager 11 cents to win a dime on this game…

Houston at Indy – 1 (41): The lines on this game did not go up until late on Thursday because there was uncertainty about who would play QB for both sides. Even though both teams show up here with losing records – and losses last week – this is as important a game as any on the card for the week. The winner will have a 1 game lead in the AFC South race; moreover, the winner here will be the only team in that division with only 1 loss within the division. I will not call this the Game of the Week because there are better ones below, but this is a game to watch. Think about these two facts in juxtaposition:

This is another Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

KC – 7 at Baltimore (41): The Chiefs need to keep winning; they have won 7 in a row and right now have the top wild card position in the AFC. This is their last road game; a win here and two good showings at home will put the Chiefs in the first wild card spot in the AFC playoffs. That did not look possible back in mid-October when the Chiefs were 1-5 and had lost 5 in a row. The Ravens have nothing to gain or to lose based on the outcome of this game. On defense, the Ravens give up 7 points per game more than the Chiefs do; look at that spread. On offense, the Chiefs score 4 points per game more than the Ravens do; look at that spread. Normally with two teams that play defense better than offense and a full TD as the spread, I would take the points. The problem I have here is that the Chiefs very good defense (4th in scoring defense and 8th in total defense) is going up against Jimmy Claussen at QB. I do not see the Chiefs lighting up the scoreboard in Baltimore, but I think the Ravens will be bottled up sufficiently for the Chiefs to cover here. I’ll take the Chiefs and lay the points.

Buffalo at Washington “pick ‘em” (44): This is a really even game; you can find the Bills as a 1-point favorite at a couple sportsbooks and you can find the skins as a 1-point favorite at a couple of other sportsbooks. Most places have it as a “pick ‘em” game. Neither team can afford to lose here but a loss for the Bills would be a disaster. The scoring defenses for these teams are the same; total defense differs by only 5 yards per game; the Bills about 20 yards per game better on offense; the Bills score 3 points per game more. As I said, this is a really even game. For folks who like the Bills, here is a cautionary note:

The Bucs and Rams have played 14 games this year (including last night’s game). The Bucs have committed more penalties than the Bills given that extra game but even those added penalties have cost the Bucs fewer yards than the Bills’ penalties have cost the Bills.

I think this game boils down to a simple question. Will the Bills self-destruct again or will they exploit their stat advantage to take away a win from this game? I think they will self-destruct one more time; I like the Skins to win the game.

Tennessee at New England – 14 (46.5): On Thursday morning, I checked the money line for this game and the highest one I could find was +960; this morning I checked again and that line had dropped to +875. The only reason I can think of for that large a move is that someone put a significant wager down on the Titans to win this game straight up. For the record, I am not the person who did that… I could think about taking the Titans with 2 TDs worth of points in a late-season game against the Pats except that the Pats still need wins to secure home field advantage throughout the playoff. The spread is not interesting here so I’ll take this game to go OVER.

(Sun Nite) Arizona – 3 at Philly (51): This is the “flexed game” for Sunday Night Football; it is an important game for both teams and it should be a good game. The Eagles will know how the Giants and Skins fared in their 1:00 PM games by kickoff time; if both the Giants and Skins win those games, this becomes all the more critical for the Eagles. Statistically, the Cards score 8 points per game more than the Eagles and allow 5 points per game fewer than the Eagles. That would make the spread here look awfully cheap – except that the Cards have a long trip to the East Coast for the game and that often provides a large advantage for the home squad. Since this game is a night game, that advantage should be minimized; the Cards will not be playing at a time when their bodies think is “before lunchtime”. The Cards sport a 6-1 road record this year so travel is not so deleterious to them. I like the game to go OVER and I like the Cards to win and cover here.

Carolina – 5 at Giants (48): This is a game to watch for multiple reasons. The Panthers have a reason to play hard in this game over and above their undefeated status. They have not yet wrapped up home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Two team stats point to a big Panthers’ win here:

However, the Giants will be playing “desperately” because they have a road game at Minnesota next week which will not be a walk in the park. A loss for the Giants will be most debilitating for their playoff hopes. For the “game within a game” think about seeing Odell Beckham, Jr. being covered all day long by Josh Norman. That alone could be worth the price of admission. A lot of pundits say this is where the Panthers’ win streak ends; I have to admit that with Jonathan Stewart probably out and Greg Olsen probably out, the Giants look attractive. What I cannot get past is the total lack of a pass rush by the Giants and that means Cam Newton should still have a big day. I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Cleveland at Seattle – 15 (43): The Seahawks are rolling; the Browns are – well, they are the Browns. After starting the season at 4-5, the Seahawks can guaranteed themselves a playoff spot with a win here. Yesterday the money line for the Browns was between +950 and +975 depending on which sportsbook you were looking at. Today, those numbers are as high as +995. I think the Seahawks’ defense will throttle the Browns here. On the other hand, the Browns’ defense has not throttled anyone this year; the Browns give up 27.5 points per game; only the Saints give up more. I do not like to do this, but I will take the Seahawks and lay that huge basket of points.

Green Bay – 3 at Oakland (47): This should be a good game and it is certainly an important game. The Packers have a 1-game lead in the NFC North and will know the outcome of the Vikes/Bears game earlier in the day. The Raiders are in deep yogurt with regard to the playoffs; their record is 6-7 and they can see 3 teams ahead of them with 8-5 records and only 3 games left to play. I think this will be the end of the line for the Raiders. I like the Packers to win and cover – even on the road in The Black Hole.

Miami at San Diego – 1.5 (45.5): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. The TV listings for this game should carry a notice that viewers are advised to avert their eyes. Both teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and they bring a combined record of 8-18 to the stadium. The temperature in San Diego at game time will only be in the low-60s so maybe some fans will actually show up to see this game and not go surfing. Bottom Line: I like Philip Rivers a lot better than I like Ryan Tannehill; I’ll take the Chargers and lay the points.

Denver at Pittsburgh – 6.5 (44.5): I think this is the Game of the Week because these are good teams playing well and the game is important. Here is the matchup that will be great to watch:

Steelers have not been held under 30 points in a game since Nov 1.

I think the Steelers can and will score here – maybe not the 36 points per game they have averaged since Nov 1, but they will score. I do think that the Steelers’ defense will be able to keep the Broncos offense under control simply because the Broncos offense is not that good no matter who plays QB for them. The Broncos score the same number of points per game as the Skins and no one thinks the Skins are an offensive juggernaut. The game means more to the Steelers than it does to the Broncos; I’ll take the Steelers at home to win and cover.

Cincy – 6 at SF (40.5): The spread for this game opened at 4 points and has been climbing slowly all week. If AJ McCarron is going to emulate Tom Brady’s career arc (see above), this is a great way for him to start his trek and gain some confidence. The Niners stink on offense and their defense is just as bad. The Niners give up 24.2 points per game and a whopping 401.7 yards per game. Even so, the Bengals under Marvin Lewis have tended to play very conservatively in big games and in games like this where they are not in their comfort zone. This is purely a hunch but I’ll take the Niners plus the points at home because I think this will be a low-scoring affair.

(Mon Nite) Detroit at New Orleans – 3 (50): This game was the clear runner-up in the minds of the Selection Committee for the Dog Breath Game of the Week. These teams bring a combined 9-17 record to the stadium and – quite frankly – outside of Detroit and New Orleans, no one gives a rat’s ass about either of these teams. ESPN pays a big price for MNF and you wonder why after you look at yet another “Monday Night Stinker”. I am one of those who do not care about either team here so let me turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol for the pick. The coin says to take the game to go OVER.

Finally, here is an NFL related item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Steelers Hall of Fame QB Terry Bradshaw has put his 12-acre Hawaiian estate on the market for $2.7 million.

“If you can just overlook the steel curtains on the home’s windows and the terrible towels in the bathroom, real-estate agents say, it’s the perfect site for an immaculate reception.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 12/13/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks were something between a tire fire and a sack of wet goat s[p]it. Last week’s record was a miserable 5-11-0 sinking the season record below .500 to 96-100-5. The Curmudgeon Coin Flip Protocol did even worse for the week; the coin picked four games and missed all four. That 0-4-0 performance leaves the coin at 14-16-1 for the year.

The “Best Pick” of the week was taking Seattle as a “pick ‘em” over Minnesota and seeing the Seahawks win in a walk.

The “Worst Pick” last week was taking New England and laying 10 points to the Eagles and seeing the Eagles win the game outright.

The “Most Frustrating Picks” last week were:

Jags +2.5 against Titans – the Jags scored 39 points and failed to cover by half-a-point

Undaunted, I shall go on. In light of last week’s record, it should be apparent that one would need to be monumentally stupid to take anything written here and use it as the basis for a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money. By “monumentally stupid”, I mean that stupidity has to be genetically imprinted upon you by your family lineage because no single person in a single generation could be that stupid. In fact,

Your family was dumb enough to fight for the East in the US Civil War.

General Comments:

Consider that after 13 weeks of this NFL season (12 games and a BYE Week for each team), Tom Brady has more yards receiving (35) than he does TD passes (31). Who saw that coming?

Even more outrageous, Tom Brady’s 35 yards as a pass receiver is more productive than Dwayne Bowe’s receiving stats with the Cleveland Browns. In this offseason, the Browns signed Bowe to a 2-year contract worth $12.5M with $9M of that money guaranteed. He has collected a signing bonus and his money for this year; that adds up to a bit over $6M and the rest is guaranteed to him next year. For all of that money here is what the Browns have gotten:

Bowe did not catch a single pass in 4 of those games.

In the other game, he caught 3 passes for 31 yards.

His last TD reception was on Dec. 8 2013 against the Skins while he was still a member of the KC Chiefs.

As the NFL season heads into the final quarter, here is my short-hand assessment of the 8 divisions:

AFC West:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC East:

NFC West: Arizona leads; Seattle surging; St. Louis folding
NFC North: Minnesota/Green Bay on top at 8-4.
NFC South: Carolina has clinched; Tampa surging; Atlanta collapsing
NFC East: Who the Hell knows?

Last week, the Packers beat the Lions at the end of the game. First there was a facemask penalty called that was – by rule – a correct call because the most minor contact occurred between a defender’s hand and an offensive player’s face mask. The official saw it and called it and he was right in doing so. Having said that, the contact made was about as violent as if someone had drawn a feather-duster across the face mask grill VERY slowly. After that, there was the Hail Mary throw to the end zone that won the game for the Packers. That gift from the football gods puts the Packers back in a tie for the NFC North lead because …

The Seahawks crushed the Vikings last week 38-7. People have heaped lots of praise on Russell Wilson all week long for his 3 TD passes and another running TD; he deserves plenty of praise. I would like to highlight here the Seahawks’ defense from last week’s game. They too had a dominating day:

Seahawks defense held Adrian Peterson to 18 yards rushing
Seahawks defense held the Vikes to 125 yards total offense

Kudos to the Seahawks’ defense and defensive game plan.

Going into last week’s games, the Bears still had an outside shot at the playoffs and could have been in the mix in the NFC North because it seemed as if the Packers and the Vikes were determined to self-immolate this season. They had a clearly winnable game on the docket with the lowly Niners coming to Soldier field for a visit. The Bears got off to a lead and held a 20-13 lead in the final 2 minutes of the game. Then, Blaine Gabbert ran through the Bears’ defense for a 44-yard TD to tie the game. If you watch the replay there, the Bears secondary never seemed to go after Gabbert at more than half-speed; had they gone at three-quarter speed they would have run him down well short of the goal line because – to be polite – Blaine Gabbert is not swift afoot.

Not to worry though, the Bears got the ball back and moved it down the field to set up Robbie Gold for a game winning 40 yard field goal – which he missed. Whatever … the Bears were still the home team going into OT against a sorry-assed Niners’ squad that was 0-5 on the road up to that point. Then the Bears’ defense seemed to go into a trance for one more play and Gabbert hit Torrey Smith for a 71-yard TD pass to give the Niners the win. Folks, the Bears choked this one away every way you want to look at it. Absent a miracle – equivalent to the return of Lazarus from the dead –, the Bears’ season died last Sunday.

The Broncos beat the Chargers 17-3 last week looking like the Broncos’ teams that started out the 2015 season. The defense shut down the Chargers and scored a TD itself; the offense did just enough good things to keep the defense rested and the offense did not commit any costly turnovers. Neither team scored in the second half of the game; here is how the Chargers second half possessions ended:

The other two AFC West teams – Chiefs and Raiders – played in Oakland last week; the Chiefs won their 6th game in a row with a 4th quarter surge. The Raiders led 20-14 as the 4th quarter began; then the Chiefs’ defense took over the game. The Chiefs’ intercepted Derek Carr three times in the fourth quarter – one of which was a Pick Six. Up to the start of the 4th quarter, the Raiders dominated the game and then they drowned in a barrel of mistakes. The final score was Chiefs 34 Raiders 20. From that score you would never guess that the Raiders had 128 more yards of offense than the Chiefs in the game.

The Panthers beat the Saints in another “Saints Shootout Game” 41-38. In so doing, the Panthers clinched the NFC South division title in the first week of December. Cam Newton threw 5 TD passes and the Panthers ran up 497 yards of offense in the game. Note that this is with the “new defensive coordinator” in charge of the Saint’s defense.

Look, I am no “Rob Ryan Fanboy” but the “defensive problems” in New Orleans have more to do with who is on the field than it does with who is calling the defensive alignments.

NFL history was made in the game when the Saints blocked an extra point attempt, scooped up the ball and returned it all the way to the end zone. The new rule in the NFL this year credits the defense with two points for such a return and this is the first time it has happened. For trivia buffs, Saints’ linebacker Stephone Anthony made that bit of NFL history.

The other two NFC South teams – Bucs and Falcons – played in Tampa last week. The Falcons led at the half; as has become their wont recently, they then lost the game in the second half by a score of 23-19. Surely, you have seen the replay of Jameis Winston’s amazing run in a 3rd and 19 situation where he was all but stopped and tackled 10 yards short of the first down but he managed to break free and get the first down. It was an amazing play indeed. However, its “amazingness” overshadows the fact that it was merely part of an 80-yard game-winning drive. The Bucs and the Falcons are now both 6-6 on the season; in the NFC, that means both of them are in wild card contention. However, it sure looks as if these two teams are headed in very different directions at the moment.

The Jets/Giants game went to OT and the Jets came out with a win. As has happened to the Giants more than once this season, they led by 10 points with about 4 minutes to play in the game; then they found a way to lose. At one point late in the 3rd quarter, the Giants had the ball with a 4th down inside the Jets’ 5-yardline and a 10-point lead. The Giants went for it and Eli Manning threw an INT. If you look on paper at the receiving corps for the Giants vis-à-vis the Jets, you give the edge to the Giants. If you compere starting QBs, you give the edge to the Giants. Nevertheless in this game here is how it played out:

The games are played on the field and not on paper…

The Bills inserted themselves into the playoff discussion last week with a 30-21 win over the Texans. Tyrod Taylor threw 3 TD passes and ran for another one. That is a good day for a QB under any circumstances but recall that this is what the Texans’ defense has done recently:

Moreover, the Bills’ OL kept JJ Watt from getting a sack and limited him to only 4 tackles in the game. This was a team-victory for the Bills; Sammy Watkins had 109 yards receiving; LeSean McCoy had 112 yards on the ground.

The Dolphins remained mathematically alive in the AFC wild card race beating the hapless Ravens 15-13. In the Ravens’ 12 games this season, they have won 4 of them by one score or less and they have lost 8 of them by one score or less. The Ravens had Javorious Allen rush for 63 yards and add another 107 yards plus a TD in the passing game. And they lost… A Pick Six in the middle of the 2nd quarter by the Dolphins gave them a 15-0 lead and they held on for the win. Dolphins’ QB, Ryan Tannehill, was 9-19 for 86 yards and 1 TD. That was enough for the Dolphins to come out with a win here…

The Steelers’ offense had another huge day last week against the Colts. The Steelers amassed 522 yards and 45 points for the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 364 yards; DeAngelo Williams ran for another 134 yards; at times it looked like a training camp session where the first string was going against a bunch of undrafted free agents that would make the team only if the only other choices at their positions were Pee Wee Herman and/or Urkel. Matt Hasselbeck played the way one ought to expect a 40-year old career backup QB to play against a real NFL team. He threw 2 INTs early in the game; the Steelers led 21-10 at the half and then shut out the Colts in the second half. It was a dominating performance…

The Bengals matched their AFC North rivals – the Steelers – last week in terms of routing their opponent. The Bengals beat the Browns 37-3; it could have been worse. In the last 3 games between the Browns and the Bengals, the Browns have lost by a cumulative score of 98-13. Ouch! AJ Green had 128 yards receiving putting him over the 1000-yard mark for receiving yards this year. That is big deal because it is the 5th time in his 5 year career he has done that. Here is the list of WRs in NFL history who have reached that mark in each of their first 5 years:

That’s it; that’s the list…

The more interesting outcome from this game is that the Browns started Austin Davis at QB with Johnny Manziel as the backup and Davis struggled – to put it mildly. Let me be clear about this:

If Austin Davis is the answer, the question was not “Who is the Browns’ franchise QB going forward from the 2015 season?”

Based on last week’s showing, Davis is going to be a career backup in the NFL and Josh McCown, who will be 37 by the time training camp starts next season, is not the QB-of-the-Future either. That leaves the following QBs – sort of – on the Browns’ roster:

That’s it; that’s the list…

So, naturally, the Browns announced on Monday that Manziel will be the starting QB this weekend. I said “naturally” in the last sentence because when push comes to shove, the Browns have no real choice; they really need to find out if Manziel is an NFL-level QB or not on the field. I think they and everyone else knows already that he is not yet nearly mature enough to be a “football star” in modern society. Here is how Mike Pettine described his thought process in terms of naming Manziel the starter for this week:

“[Manziel] has been solid in the building over the last couple weeks.”

Think about that statement for just a moment. Now take yourself back to your sophomore year in college in a situation where some friends are setting you up with a blind date. They tell you that she,

“is a really good dancer and has a great personality”.

At that moment, you know for sure that your blind date looks like the loser in an axe fight. Nevertheless, that is where Mike Pettine finds himself as he prepares the Browns for Week 14 of the NFL season. He has no REAL choice; this has to be his guy. And even if Manziel leads the Browns to a win by a margin of 4 TDs, Pettine will be holding his breath until Manziel shows up for the next week of preparation without another entry on his rap sheet or a half-empty growler in his hand.

Mark Whicker of the LA Examiner assessed Johnny Manziel this way:

“If this idiot Manziel wanted to be an NFL QB half as much as everybody else wants him to be, he’d be in the Pro Bowl by now.”

I do not know if Manziel is an “idiot” or if he is merely “self-destructive” and “enamored with entitlement”, but other than that, I agree completely with Professor Whicker.

The Cards beat the Rams 27-3 last week. The Cards played two unknown RBs in place of the injured Chris Johnson and got a total of 158 yards from the pair; Carson Palmer added 356 yards and 2 TDs through the air and this game was a laugher. The Rams have a good defense but even a good defense has to get tired and/or discouraged after a while. The Cards exploited the Rams’ good defense for 524 yards of total offense. On offense, the Rams are a mess. Their QB situation is mediocre on good days; when defenses load up to stop the run, even Todd Gurley cannot save the day. To give you an idea of the Rams’ ineptitude last week, they were 1-12 on third down situations.

The Titans beat the Jags 42-39. Probably the most noteworthy item to come from this game is that the Jags missed 3 extra points in the game. The kicker missed two of them and the team biffed on an attempted 2-point conversion. Look at the score; the Jags lost by 3…

In the shocker of the weekend, the Eagles beat the Pats. The Eagles had scored 5 TDS and here are how those hit the board:

Not many teams score 35 points in a game in that fashion; I think I am on firm ground with that assertion. The Eagles’ offense was better than it had been in recent games but that is damning by faint praise. The Eagles’ offense is still not very good. Nevertheless, it participated in the scoring-fest here enough for the team to come out of Foxboro with a 35-28 win.

Two weeks ago, it would have been unthinkable to suggest that the Pats might not have a BYE Week in the playoffs. Well, as of this morning, they are the #3 seed in the AFC Playoff Standings and would not have said “BYE Week”.

On MNF, the Cowboys beat the Skins 19-16 in one of the ugliest and most inept football games of the year. At least the game was close so that it held some of your attention but the execution on the field by both teams was execrable.

Jordan Reid (Washington TE) was called for offensive pass interference in the first half. That was his 10th penalty of the year – more than any other player in the NFL who is not an offensive lineman.

On one play, the Skins had TWO defensive linemen lined up in the neutral zone. Not one but TWO.

The Cowboys were 1-9 on third downs – and they won the game.

Cowboys’ total offense was 317 yards; Skins gained a total of 266.

If you like trends, the Skins are now 2-14 on MNF since 1997 and they are 2-9 on MNF since 2008. In spite of all that nonsense, here is why ESPN loved to carry that game:

Moreover, it was the highest rated program in the “coveted demographics” for Monday night.

The fact is that the Cowboys deliver TV ratings and when they play their “rivalry game” against the Skins, the ratings spike.

The NFC East race has the Giants, Skins and Eagles tied for first with 5-7 records and the Cowboys only a game out of first place with a 4-8 record. This is a goat rodeo…

The Games:

The Cardinals put themselves in the NFC playoffs by beating the Vikes on Thursday Night Football last night. Despite the fact that the play that sealed the win for the Cards was a “Strip-Sack-Recover” play, the Cards’ pass rush is suspect. They harassed Vikes’ QB, Teddy Bridgewater most of last night but almost always the pressure came thanks to blitzes that came from different directions on about every play. Whatever … The Cardinals will be playing in January and the Vikes are now in second place in the NFC North pending the outcome of Sunday’s contests.

Pittsburgh at Cincy – 3 (49): The Total Line for this game opened at 47 and jumped to this level very quickly. In fact, you can find it at 50 points at one Internet sportsbook this morning. The Steelers’ offense has been on fire for the last month; in their last four games, they have scored 30 or more points every time out including 30 points on the Seahawks’ defense. Moreover, the Steelers have gone north of 450 yards of total offense in those 4 games. Both teams have something to play for here.

Currently, the Steelers are in the first tranche of teams fighting for the two wild card slots. However both the Chiefs and the Jets have identical records and there are three other teams only a game behind.

The last time these teams met, they only put 26 points on the scoreboard because Roethlisberger and Dalton threw a total of 5 INTs in the game. I do not see that happening again – just as I am happy to see that the Steelers will not be wearing their bumblebee uniforms again – and I like this game to go OVER.

Buffalo at Philly “pick ‘em” (47): The spread in this game is all over the place. You can find the Bills as a 1-point favorite in a few places; you can find the Eagles as a 1-point favorite in a few places; you can find the game as “pick ‘em” in a few places and you can find the Bills as a 1.5-point favorite at one place. The opening number was Eagles – 1 point but it has bounced around all week long. Raise your hand if you have heard more than you need to hear about this being “The Chip Kelly vs LeSean McCoy Game”. I sort of had that figured out as soon as the schedule came out and this game was on the menu. This game has playoff implications – more toward the negative side for the loser than the positive side for the winner but nevertheless… It is difficult enough to pick games where one of the teams is up one week and down the next; here you have that condition applied to both teams. Since I said I would make a pick in every game, I’ll take the Bills to win the game and here is why:

The Bills’ defense is good enough to prevent the Eagles from “quick-strike scores” and the Bills’ offense is good enough at ball control to keep the Eagles’ defense on the field for much of the game. I think that will be to the Bills’ advantage late and they will win the game.

Atlanta at Carolina – 8 (47): The Falcons started the season with 5 straight wins; as of this morning, they are on a 5-game losing streak. Here is a stat for you:

OK, Falcons; the pressure is on…

The Panthers are the division champs and hold a 1.5-game lead over the Cards going into this contest for the best record in the NFC. Technically, the Falcons are still in the wild card race, but I doubt many folks feel confident in their chances. There will be an interesting match-up in this game. Josh Norman has established himself as a dominant CB this year; Julio Jones continues to be an outstanding WR; those two should make acquaintance on Sunday. I do not think the Falcons are going to win this game but that line does look fat. I’ll take the Falcons plus the points.

SF at Cleveland – 2 (41): I just could not pick one game this week as the worst game of the week and so this game is the Co-Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Last week, the Browns/Bengals game was the early game in the part of the country where I found myself; I saw that debacle. Make no mistake; the Browns are a bad team. Yet, they are 2-point favorites in this game likely due to the fact that the Niners are also a bad team and they have a 3 time zone change to deal with. Neither team runs the ball well; the QBs will be Johnny Manziel and Blaine Gabbert; therefore I am not expecting an aerial explosion. Just a hunch here, I like this game to stay UNDER.

Washington at Chicago – 3 (44): The Skins are still in the midst of the race to see which NFC East team will stumble home with the best record. The Bears’ loss last week in a perfectly winnable game was shameful. The Skins are winless on the road this season – and they are 1-12 on the road since Jay Gruden took over the coaching duties in Washington. How bad is that? The Skins are the only team in the NFL not to win a road game this year. Even the awful teams – Browns, Niners, Saints, and Rams etc. – have won a road game. Meanwhile, the Bears’ home-field advantage has not materialized this year; the Bears’ are 1-5 at home; that puts them in the company of the Cowboys, the Titans and the Browns with only 1 home win. I mentioned above that the Bears’ defense could not catch Blaine Gabbert last week in a 44-yard TD scamper; imagine what DeSean Jackson will do to that defense… Here is the bottom line:

Both QBs in this game can turn in sterling performances and both QBs in this game have a history of throwing a critical Pick Six to lose a game.

This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game if ever there was one. The coin says to take the Bears and lay the points.

Detroit at St. Louis “pick ‘em” (41): Here is the other Co-Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Let’s see here… The Rams have lost their last two games 58-10; the Lions just gave up a Hail Mary pass to come from ahead and lose a game. The Lions are not a good road team but at least this road game is still in a dome. The Rams’ have gotten miserable QB play so far this year and there is no relief in sight. I cannot make this a Coin Flip Game because the protocol does not allow for the coin to judge in a “pick ‘em situation”. Therefore, I will make this purely a venue call and take the Rams to win the game.

San Diego at KC – 11 (45): The first time these teams played this year, the score was 33-3 in favor of the Chiefs and that game was in San Diego. Neither team has shown a drastic reversal of form since that meeting; the Chargers have injury issues that exposed a lack of depth and they have an anemic running game. Philip Rivers is actually playing very well, but playing “one-on-eleven” is not a winning formula. I do not think the Chargers can win this game but I am not laying 11 points in a division game. I’ll take the game to go OVER – only because I need to make a pick in every game.

New Orleans at Tampa – 4 (51): The Bucs are in the playoff hunt; the Saints are under-whelming. Here are the pivotal questions about this game:

2. How big a clunker will the Saints’ defensive unit put out on the field this week?

The Saints have allowed 35 TD passes in 12 games this year. The NFL record for TD passes allowed is 40 and that record was set by the Denver Broncos in 1963. Yowza !!

I like the Bucs to win and cover at home.

Indy at Jax “pick ‘em” (46): There were no lines on this game until Wednesday night this week because Matt Hasselbeck is not fully healthy, Andrew Luck is not ready to play and the default option is Charlie Whitehurst. On the other sideline, there is a team that normally scores points sparingly but found a way to put 39 of them on the board last week – – and still lost the damned game to the Titans no less. Here is a totally irrelevant – yet interesting stat:

Colts have won their last 3 games in Jax by a combined score of 108-30.

Next week, the Colts will host the Texans; those two teams have identical records this week and that game could well decide the AFC South. The Colts must avoid looking past the mediocre Jags this week. If Chuck Pagano and staff cannot get the team to focus on the task at hand this week, the howls for his head on a stick will be heard as far away as Tahiti. I’ll take the Colts to win here – with little if any conviction.

Tennessee at Jets – 7.5 (43): The Jets’ record of 7-5 puts them in a tie with the Chiefs and the Steelers for the two wild card playoff slots. In three-way tie situations, the tiebreaker often comes down to “Conference Record” and here is where those three teams stand today:

This is a conference game for the Jets and they really cannot afford to lose it – especially since the opponent is a bottom-feeder. The Titans scored 42 points last week against the Jags; they will not score 42 points against the Jets this week. However, I can see them scoring 17 points and if they do, I think that will be sufficient for this to be a correct pick. I like this game to go OVER.

(Sun Nite) New England – 3.5 at Houston (44.5): Both teams need a win; the Texans are tied with the Colts atop the AFC South; the Pats have lost 2 in a row and stand 3rd in the AFC playoff seedings as of this morning. Not to minimize the vast array of injuries to the Pats’ WRs and RBs, but the Pats’ OL has played poorly in their last two games. Tom Brady is not going to be at his best if he has to scramble around to avoid sacks and big hits. JJ Watt should make life miserable for the Pats’ OL this week – even though he broke his hand in practice and will probably look like Jason Pierre-Paul with a club on his hand for the game. I like this game to go OVER.

Oakland at Denver – 7 (43): The Raiders have lost 4 of their last 5; the Broncos have won their last 3 games with Brock Osweiler in the drivers’ seat. It appeared for a while that the Raiders might have been contenders for a wild card slot in the playoffs; that did not end with last week’s loss to the Chiefs but a loss here will pretty much assure that the Raiders’ season will end on 3 January. The Raiders had problems with a good/opportunistic Chiefs’ defense last week; this week they face a defense that is better and even more opportunistic. I like this game to stay UNDER and I like the Raiders plus the points.

Dallas at Green Bay – 7 (43): The Cowboys are 4-8; they are also only 1 game behind the other three NFC East pretenders. Maybe their best chance to win this game lies in the fact that they are on the road; this year the Cowboys are 3-3 on the road while only 1-5 at home. The Packers lead the NFC North today because the Vikes lost last night; in normal years, playing the game in Lambeau Field would be a big plus for them, but the Packers have already lost twice at home in 2015 and two in a row to boot. I do not think either defense is going to be able to hold down the opposing offense well – even with Matt Cassel at QB for the Cowboys. I like this game to go OVER.

Seattle – 10 at Baltimore (42): Straight to the bottom line here… The Seahawks seem to be getting it together for a playoff run; both offense and defense seem to be surging. The Ravens have stayed close in all their games this year but not here. Even in Baltimore and even with my aversion to laying double-digit spreads, I like the Seahawks to win and cover.

(Mon Nite) Giants – 1 at Miami (46): This is an epic collision of two 5-7 teams… The only thing that makes it interesting is that the Giants’ 5-7 record has them tied for first place in the NFC East and they will know just how all of their rivals in that division fared on Sunday as they tee it up for this game. The fact that both teams have the same 5-7 record might obscure a significant difference here:

The Giants defense is a mess; their pass defense is brutal because they have no pass rush to speak of. I think both offenses can score on these defenses so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Finally, here is an over-arching comment on this year’s NFL season from Brad Dickson in the Omaha World-Herald:

“I saw an article about a presidential candidate referring to unskilled labor. He was talking about NFL referees.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 12/6/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks were ever so slightly “in the black” and pushed the season total over the .500 mark. Last week’s record was 9-7-0 bringing the season total to 91-89-5. The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games went 2-1-0 keeping the coin in positive territory for the season at 14-12-1.

The “Best Picks” from last week were taking the Vikings plus points and the Skins plus points and watching both teams win straight up.

The “Worst Picks” from last week were the ones in the Pats/Broncos game. I liked the Pats and gave points (They lost straight up.) and I liked the game OVER 44 (It stayed UNDER.).

No one should use any info herein as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this week – or any other week for that matter. If you are dumb enough to that, you probably also think that:

Nacho cheese is cheese that belongs to someone else.

General Comments:

Despite suffering his second collarbone injury for the season, the Cowboys have chosen not to put Tony Romo on the injured reserve list for the moment. Reportedly, the reason is that the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated from the NFC Playoffs and should they get in and should Romo’s shoulder be “healed”, they want him available for a playoff run. That thinking stretches the limits “wishful thinking” and threatens to edge over the line into the realm of “magical thinking”.

Wishful thinking is hoping against hope; in the rare situation where a bit of wishful thinking comes to pass, it makes for a huge feelgood moment. Magical thinking is different; magical thinking is accepting the concept that Santa Claus on a sleigh powered by flying reindeer can actually visit the home of every child in the world on a single night.

If my math is correct, the best record the Cowboys can attain is 8-8. To do that they will need to win all of their next 5 games and even if they do so, there is no guarantee that they will win the NFC East. Compounding their task is a stark fact:

Just as maintaining the Santa Claus Myth for young kids does no great harm, neither does keeping Tony Romo on the active roster do any great harm. Nevertheless, he and his wife need not worry about booking themselves on a vacation to Tahiti sometime in January 2016…

On Thanksgiving, the Lions beat the Eagles 45-14 meaning that the Eagles defense gave up a total of 90 points in a 5-day period. More than a few Eagles’ fans have been lighting up Philly sports radio for the last few months calling for Sam Bradford to be benched – or worse – meaning that Mark Sanchez would take over the QB duties. Well, now those fans have seen Sanchez for about 6 quarters of football and it is time to ask them if they still think Sam Bradford is the reason the Eagles have not done well this year. I am not saying that Bradford has had a good season; he has not. I am not even saying that Bradford is well-suited to chip Kelly’s offense; I think he is not. However, Sam Bradford is not the reason the Eagles have been unsuccessful and the reason I say that is that there are multiple reasons why the Eagles have been unsuccessful.

Against the Lions, the Eagles defense surrendered 3 TDs to Calvin Johnson and allowed Matthew Stafford to throw 5 TD passes in the game. The 90 points the defense has surrendered in the past two games have been against the Bucs and the Lions. I doubt that many folks would place those two opponents near the top of a list titled “Fearsome Offenses NFL 2015”.

Later on Thanksgiving, the Panthers pantsed the Cowboys 33-14. In addition to losing Tony Romo for the rest of the season, there had to be another disappointing aspect to the game:

Someone was wearing a Cowboys jersey in the game with the number 88 on it and was doing a miserable imitation of Dez Bryant.

The Panthers got a Pick Six on the Cowboys’ first possession of the game. Here is what followed in the first half:

Folks, that was BEFORE Tony Romo was injured; that was the offensive output with the varsity squad on the field. The score at the half was 23-3 and anyone watching the game who was not adorned in Cowboys’ paraphernalia had to know the outcome was not in doubt. For the game, the Cowboys managed only 209 yards of offense. From here forward, they will have Matt Cassel and/or Kellen Moore at QB. Good luck with a playoff run…

On Thanksgiving night, the Bears beat the Packers 17-13 in Lambeau Field on the night the Packers retired Brett Favre’s number. The game was not nearly as exciting as I would have wanted. After all, that is when the tryptophan from all the turkey tends to kick in and an exciting game on the TV would have made it much easier to stay conscious. Whatever… At kickoff, the Bears were 9.5-point underdogs and they won the game outright; that should get Bears’ fans pumped for at least a week.

The Skins beat the Giants 20-14 and based on tie-breakers the Skins are now the NFC East leaders with a 5-6 record. This game was not as close as the score would indicate; the Skins led 20-0 after 3 quarters and the Skins’ defense dominated. The Skins got 3 turnovers in the game and did not give the ball away one time. Here is what I mean by “dominated”:

Kirk Cousins continues to play well in the “Jay Gruden offense” and he topped the 300-yard mark once again. Cousins’ contract is up at the end of this season; I think he is in line for a nice payday…

The Broncos handed the Patriots their first loss of the year by a 30-24 score. People have properly paid lots of attention to the injuries that the Pats have encountered at the WR position this year. However, it should also be noted that at the end of the game on Sunday, the Pats were also without their two starting inside linebackers on defense. The Broncos’ defense had no such difficulties and played exceptionally well holding the Pats to only 301 yards of offense – the Pats’ lowest offensive output for the year. Virtually all of that offense came through the air; the Pats could only eke out 39 yards rushing for the night.

Brock Osweiler played well in this game showing poise in addition to physical skills. Like Kirk Cousins, his contract also expires at the end of this season. One or two more games like the one on Sunday night and he too will be in line for a nice payday…

The Raiders beat the Titans 24-21 limiting the Titans to only 44 yards rushing. Marcus Mariota played decently but Derek Carr played better. Carr threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs including a late game TD that marked a come-from-behind win.

The Bengals beat the Rams 31-7 and two stats from that game will let you know how discombobulated the Rams were:

The Chargers beat the Jags 31-25 last week. Philip Rivers had a field day against the Jags’ defense going 29-43 for 300 yards and 4 TDs. That had to make the 5 hour flight home pleasant. The Jags’ offensive ineptitude aided in the win. Note the margin was only 6 points and consider that the Jags had the ball inside the Chargers’ 30-yardline on 4 occasions in the game and scored ZERO TDs.

The Chiefs beat the Bills 30-22 and the Chiefs are en fuego. After a miserable start, the Chiefs have run off 5 straight wins and are in the thick of the AFC wild card picture. The Chiefs had a tough schedule at the start but from here to January, the schedule is not nearly as fearsome:

All five of those are “winnable games”; I doubt the Chiefs will run the table, but they should stay in the wild card chase to the end. The Chiefs have something in their favor as they make their wild card run. Three other AFC teams angling for those slots are the Steelers, Texans and Bills; the Chiefs have beaten all three of them giving them a significant advantage in tie-breaking situations.

The Cardinals beat the Niners 19-13 in a game that was so wacky that it got the officiating crew taken off this week’s nationally televised Sunday Night Game. The margin of victory came after two early mistakes by the Niners in the first quarter (an INT and a muffed punt recovered by the Cards) gave the Cards 2 field goals. Oh, and Carson Palmer ran for a TD on a bootleg. Honest, there is video to prove it…

The Colts beat the Bucs 25-12 and held the Bucs scoreless in the second half and to less than 100 yards of offense in the second half. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 3 TDs and 315 yards in the game – – not bad for a 40-year old backup QB. Nevertheless, when Andrew Luck is completely recovered from his lacerated kidney, I think the Colts would be dumber than donkey dung to keep Luck on the sidelines.

The Texans beat the Saints 24-6; the Saints did not score a TD in the game. That is the first time in Sean Payton’s tenure in New Orleans where that has happened. In case you have lost track, Payton took over in New Orleans at the start of the 2006 season. The Texans’ defense dominated the game holding the Saints to only 268 yards of total offense.

The Vikes beat the Falcons 20-10 and fans booed Matt Ryan during the game. Ryan did not have a stellar game; he threw 2 INTs in the Vikes’ half of the field – one of them inside the Vikes’ 5-yardline. This makes 4 straight losses for the Falcons; if their season is not in a freefall right now, it sure will be if they lose this weekend.

The Jets beat the Dolphins 38-20 but the game was not nearly this close. Early in the 4th quarter, the Jets led 35-7 and put it on cruise control. This loss makes the Dolphins’ record against AFC East foes a sorry-assed 0-5. As mentioned above, the Dolphins fired their offensive coordinator after the game. Here is a stat that might have tilted the scales in favor of jettisoning him:

The Dolphins ran the ball 9 times in the game for a total of 12 yards.

The Seahawks beat the Steelers 39-30 in a most entertaining game. Russell Wilson threw for 5 TDs and 345 yards in the game; there were loads of open Seahawks’ receivers running through the Steelers’ secondary. When the Steelers had the ball, Ben Roethlisberger was also carving up the Seahawks defense; he threw for 456 yards in the game on 55 pass attempts; the Steelers had 525 yards of total offense for the day.

And then there was the Monday night game where the Ravens won on the blocked field goal returned for a TD on the final play of the game. Here is all I have to say about that game and the Browns in 2015:

The Games:

(Thurs Nite) Green Bay – 3 at Detroit (46.5): The Packers have lost four of their last 5 games including a loss at home to these same Lions. What is even more disturbing to Packers’ fans is that Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offensive unit appears confused on more than a few plays. Meanwhile, the Lions have won 3 games in a row and I sure never saw that coming. I shall turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip protocol and the coin says to take the Lions plus the points.

SF at Chicago – 7 (43): The favorite has covered the last 4 times these teams have met. Of course, they do not play all that often so that stretch of 4 games goes all the way back to October 2006. Nothing interesting there… The Bears are coming off a win over the Packers at Lambeau field last week; the Niners start Blaine Gabbert at QB with rookie Dylan Thompson (South Carolina) as the backup. I know full well that Jay Cutler is capable of throwing 3 INTs against the Bournemouth Gynecologists (/Monty Python’s Flying Circus) but I still cannot bring myself to take the Niners on the road with Blaine Gabbert at QB. I’ll take the Bears and lay the points.

Cincy – 9.5 at Cleveland (43): The spread for this game opened the week at 7.5 points and has been rising all week. You can even find it as high as 10.5 points at one Internet sportsbook this morning. The Bengals have a comfortable lead in the AFC North but they are still involved in a race for a BYE Week in the playoffs and possibly home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bengals have something to play for; the Browns do not. The Browns are 26th in the NFL in yards gained per game and they are 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. It looks as if Austin Davis will be the Browns’ QB this week; how might that change the equation here. This is another Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

Jax at Tennessee – 2.5 (43): Woof! Woof! Without question this is the stone cold Dog-Breath Game of the Week. It is worth exactly no verbiage. I’ll take the Jags plus the points here.

Houston at Buffalo – 3 (42): The Texans have won 4 in a row and are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead at 6-5. That record puts them in a tie with Pittsburgh, KC and the Jets for wild card slots in the playoffs. The Bills are 5-6 and need a win here to avoid needing miracles at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. I am a bit concerned with Tyrod Taylor’s shoulder; the Bills have not played well on offense the last two weeks and if the Bills have to turn to EJ Manuel, this game could get out of hand quickly. I like this game to be dominated by defense so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Baltimore at Miami – 4 (43.5): Both teams are 4-7; the winners will delude themselves that they can make the playoffs and “do some damage” once they get there; the losers will fade from relevance. The Ravens are 11th in the NFL in offense while the Dolphins are 27th. The Ravens are 17th in the NFL in defense while the Dolphins are 28th. It is difficult to get any adrenaline flowing about a game involving a QB duel between Matt Schaub and Ryan Tannehill. I like the Ravens plus the points here in a blasé sort of way.

Carolina – 7 at New Orleans (50): The Saints cannot be as bad as they looked on offense last week, can they? The Saints cannot be as bad as they looked against the Skins a few weeks ago yielding almost 50 points there, can they? Well, if they can, this is not the team they want to face this week because the Panthers have an excellent defense (2nd in the NFL) and an adequate offense (17th in the NFL). Here is how I see the game unfolding.

To cover, the Panthers need 25 points; they can do that.

To take the game OVER 50, they need 34 points; they can do that too.

I like the Panthers to win and cover and I like the game to go OVER 50.

Seattle at Minnesota “pick ‘em” (41.5): Last week Ben Roethlisberger torched the Seahawks defense (see above). Whoa! I think he just completed another pass to a wide open receiver as I typed that last sentence. Teddy Bridgewater is playing well but he is not yet Ben Roethlisberger. If the oddsmaker wants me to pick the better team in this pick ‘em game, I’ll take the Seahawks as the winner.

Arizona – 6.5 at St. Louis (42.5): The Total Line opened the week at 44.5 and has been dropping steadily all week. The Rams have lost 4 games in a row but remember that they did beat the Cards in Arizona on October 4th. I do not know if the Rams have another upset they can pull out of a hat, but that line does look fat to me. I’ll take the Rams at home plus the points.

Atlanta at Tampa – 1.5 (46): The Falcons were once 5-0 for the season; this morning their record is 6-5. In October, they aspired to keep pace with the Panthers for the NFC South lead; In December, they are hoping to find ways to scratch out a win here or there. The Bucs have played well this season and Jameis Winston has had more good games than bad games. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Falcons plus the points.

Jets – 1.5 at Giants (45): The spread opened the week as a “pick ‘em” game but jumped to this level pretty quickly; you can find the spread as high as 2 points at two Internet sportsbooks this morning. These teams are hardly exciting ones this year; if the Giants happen to win, both teams will be 6-6 for the season. Ho-hum… The teams are dead even on offense; the Jets average 2 yards per game more than the Giants. On defense, that is a different story. The Jets are 3rd in the NFL giving up 323.9 yards per game while the Giants are dead last in the NFL giving up 419.6 yards per game. Yes, the Giants give up ever so slightly more yardage per game than the miserable Saints’ defense does. I’ll take the Jets and lay the points.

Denver – 4 at San Diego (43.5): Given that Brock Osweiler played as well as he did against the Patriots last week, this spread shows him no love. I think the Broncos’ defense will hold the Chargers well below the 31 points they put on the board against the Jags last week meaning that this game will not turn into a Brock Osweiler/Philip Rivers shoot-out. I like the Broncos to win and cover even on the road.

KC – 3 at Oakland (44): The Chiefs are smack dab in the middle of the AFC wild card race and the Raiders can insert themselves there with a win in this game. What we have here is a real throwback; we have a Chiefs/Raiders game that is important to both teams in terms of the playoffs. Looks as if Mr Peabody set the Wayback Machine for some time in the late 60s/early 70s. I think this will be a defensive game so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Philly at New England – 10 (49): The Pats lost last week and they justifiably can look at the game tapes and think that a few dubious officiating calls in the 4th quarter had something to with that. The Eagles do not have the defensive personnel to match up with the Pats’ offense. I like the Pats to win and cover at home.

(Sun Nite) Indy at Pittsburgh (no lines): No lines means no pick for the game. The reason there are no lines is that Ben Roethlisberger is in the process of clearing out of the NFL Concussion Protocol so his availability for this game may not be known until Saturday. If I have to explain to you that there is a significant difference between the Steelers with Roethlisberger at QB and Landry Jones at QB, then you should not have read this far into these Mythical Picks.

(Mon Nite) Dallas at Washington – 4.5 (42): If the Giants lose on Sunday as I think they will, then the Skins can open up a significant lead in the NFC East with a win here. A win would give then a 3-1 record in the division; everyone else in the NFC East has two division losses as of this morning and the Giants have 3 division losses already. Jerry Jones still thinks the NFC East can be won by the Cowboys – hence no IR for Tony Romo yet (see above) – but a loss here would be the 9th of the year for the Cowboys and that would put the nail in the icing to mix metaphors here. Once more, I shall turn to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Skins and lay the points.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 11/29/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks did quite well. The record for the week was 10-5-0 which was good enough to get the season record all the way back to .500 at 82-82-5. The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip games were also en fuego last week going 4-0-0. That performance actually put the coin back over .500 for the year at 12-11-1.

The “Best Pick” of the week was taking Indy + 6 points. The Colts won the game straight up.

The “Worst Pick” of the week was taking the Jets and laying 2.5 points. The Jets lost the game straight up.

Do not allow the success of the last two weeks’ worth of Mythical Picks to dull your senses. The fact that it took two weeks with a combined record of 19-11-0 to get back to .500 – which is not profitable should you be playing with a vig – should be sufficiently cautionary to prevent you from using any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real game involving real money. You would have to be mighty dumb to make such a mistake; in fact, here is what I would say to someone so dumb:

Enjoy your day job – alphabetizing that bag of M&Ms.

General Comments:

Last Thursday night, the Jags beat the Titans 17-13 in a game that was hard to watch. It was so full of mistakes and bungled plays it made my teeth itch. I actually found myself tuning into the Texas State/La-Monroe game on another channel during the timeouts/commercial breaks. That game was even more miserable – but at least those guys are not drawing down NFL level salaries to go out there and play football poorly. Let me give you a couple of “highlights” from the Jags/Titans event:

Delanie Walker caught 8 passes for 109 yards. On some of the patterns over the middle he was so open that it looked as if he had not showered for a month and the defenders were trying to stay away from him.

The Titans got 5 first downs on pass interference/defensive holding calls.

The Bucs went into Philly and simply torched the Eagles last week. Jameis Winston threw 5 TD passes in the game without throwing an INT. In so doing, he became only the second rookie QB in the history of the NFL to do that. If you refrain from a Google search, you will never guess the other QB to do that so I’ll share that tidbit with you. It was Ray Buivid of the Chicago Bears back in 1937.

In his career, he threw a total of 11 TD passes; 5 of them came in a single game.

Winston was not the only Buc to have a monster day on offense. Doug Martin ran the ball 27 times for 235 yards. In case the batteries in your calculator are dead, that is just a tad shy of 9 yards per carry. The Bucs generated 521 yards of offense for the day – a franchise record.

Those Eagles’ fans who had clamored for the team to bench Sam Bradford since about the third week of the season got a taste of what it is like to have Mark Sanchez under center for your squad. This was one of his “bad days”; he threw 2 TDs – – but he also threw 3 INTs. Look, when your defense gives up 521 yards and 45 points, the odds are that you are going to lose no matter what your QB does; no one can put the blame for this loss on the offense or the QB or the special teams or… This was simply a bad day for the Eagles’ defense.

In another rout, the Panthers extended their record to 10-0 with a 44-16 spanking of the Skins. Two weeks ago, the Skins and Saints were tied at 14 early in the second quarter; then the Skins ran off 33 straight points to win 47-14. Last week the Panthers and the Skins were tied at 14 as the second quarter began. This time, it was the Panthers who ran off 30 straight points before conceding a safety in the final seconds of the game.

Cam Newton threw 5 TD passes to 5 different receivers; Jonathan Stewart ran for 102 yards and the Panthers’ defense shut down the Skins’ offense like the lid on a coffin. Let me give you just a few numbers from the game:

Notwithstanding any of the data above, Skins’ DL, Jason Hatcher, said after the game that the league officials are against the Skins because of the team name. One penalty call that nullified a Skins’ TD seemingly engendered this eruption of stupidity. The charge of bias in officialdom here would seem also to be contradicted by the fact that 5 of the penalties called on the Skins last week were for having a defensive lineman jump offsides. Oh, and none of those calls was even remotely “borderline”.

Memo to Jason Hatcher:

In San Diego, there was another rout last week. The Chiefs traveled west and beat the Chargers 33-3. Other than for dedicated fans of the KC Chiefs, this was a difficult game to watch; the outcome was not in doubt for very long despite the fact that the score was only 12-3 at halftime. The Chiefs have won 4 straight games putting their record at 5-5 for the season and putting them squarely in the morass of teams seeking a wild-card slot in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, if the Chargers continue to play like this, there will not be a tsunami of tears shed in San Diego should the team get to move to LA.

The Packers beat the Vikes handily last week 30-13 and the game featured the reappearance of Eddie Lacy as an effective running back. The Packers gained 124 yards on the ground and Lacy had 100 of them. Aaron Rodgers did not have to throw the ball 61 times as he did the week before; in this game the Packers ran the ball 34 times and threw the ball 34 times. Defensively, the Packers recorded 5 sacks and held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards on 13 carries.

The Seahawks beat the Niners handily 29-13. Russell Wilson threw 3 TD passes and RB, Thomas Rawls, subbing for Marshawn Lynch ran for 209 yards; the Seahawks offense generated 505 yards of offense for the day. If there was a point of light for the Niners in the game it was this:

Blaine Gabbert played QB and he did not stink out the joint. He was 22-34 for 264 yards and 1 TD.

With Colin Kaepernick gone for the year on IR – and perhaps gone for good from SF – the fact that Gabbert did not stink in spades has to be a plus.

The rest of the games last week were much closer contests to the ones above. The Cowboys beat the Dolphins 24-14 with Tony Romo back at QB. That was not the only change in the script for the Cowboys last week. In this game they took a lead into the 4th quarter of the game and did not cough it up. They had seemingly turned that sort of game behavior into an art form this year. The Dolphins totaled 210 yards of offense for the game. The week after Dan Campbell debuted on the sidelines with his gung-ho team message I said it would be a challenge for him to keep that up with his team. I think we can say that the emotional hype has pretty much dissipated by now and that it is safe for the wives of the players on the 4-6 Dolphins (0-4 in the division and 2-5 in the conference) to book warm weather cruises for January 2016.

The Lions beat the Raiders 18-13. The Raiders had a meaningful playoff run on their racket and will likely look back on this loss as the game that killed off that goal. The Raiders are not out of the playoff chase but they do have 6 teams ahead of them in the AFC vying for 2 wild-card slots and they have now lost 3 games in a row. The Raiders forgot to pack their offensive playbook for their trip to Detroit; they only gained 214 yards in the game. The Lions have now won 2 in a row; not to worry, they too will miss the playoffs this year.

The Ravens beat the Rams 16-13 on a last second field goal after trailing 13-3 with about 10 minutes left in the game. You have seen the video of Case Keenum getting tossed to the ground and suffering a concussion a play or two before fumbling to set up that last second field goal try. It has to be clear from those events that the NFL’s “concussion protocols” and “player safety initiatives” still need work. The Rams are now 4-6 for the season and have lost 3 games in a row – just like the Raiders. The difference here is that the Rams are not looking up at 6 teams ahead of them in the playoff chase. The Rams’ problem is that even with a healthy Nick Foles and a healthy Case Keenum, they do not have a good QB.

Meanwhile, it is apparent that someone in the Ravens’ organization has pissed off the football gods. I have no idea what that someone did or said, but this year the Ravens have not only lost a lot of players to injuries but they have lost their best players at various positions to season ending injuries.

The Texans beat the Jets 24-17. It sure looks as if the Jets are imploding; they have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Not to put too fine a point on it, they lost this game to a team with a QB that was not on an NFL roster a month ago who threw for 229 yards and 2 TDs. The Texans recorded 3 sacks in the game and this is their third win in a row.

Brock Osweiler “led” the Broncos to a 17-15 win over the Bears last week. I use the quotation marks there because:

Osweiler did not make any costly mistakes in the game – no turnovers

That performance combined with the Broncos’ defense returning to form (5 sacks of Jay Cutler in the game) produced this win.

The Colts beat the Falcons 24-21 in a game that was anything but artistic. The Colts were outgained by 99 yards in the game AND the Colts turned the ball over 3 times AND they won despite all of that. The Falcons led 21-7 in the 3rd quarter and then coughed up a giant hairball; this is their 4th loss in 5 games like the Jets. The fact that the Falcons lost Devonta Freeman to a concussion did not help in this game and will not help them this week if he cannot play then. The Texans and the Colts are both at 5-5 and sit atop the AFC South. The Colts and Texans meet on December 20 in Indy; that could well be a play-in game for the AFC playoffs.

The Cards beat the Bengals 34-31 on Sunday night. This was NOT a case of Andy Dalton choking in prime time; ignore anyone who tries to sell you that nonsense. These are two good teams and when they meet, one of them is going to lose. If you must assess blame here, lay it on the Bengals defense that gave up 282 yards passing in the second half of the game.

On Monday night, the Pats continued their mastery over the Bills despite Rex Ryan’s best emotional efforts. The Patriots injury situation is different from the one befalling the Ravens. The Patriots seem to have a propensity to have WRs get hurt this year:

Nonetheless, the Pats are 10-0 and if they win this week, either the Jets or the Bills will have to win out to tie the Pats for the AFC East lead. Not only is it a real longshot that either team can win out, the likelihood that the Pats will win only one more game this season is also slim. There are not a ton of tough games left for the Pats:

The Games:

The Bye Weeks are over. It is time to separate the sheep from the goats…

Due to the compressed time this week to get this and the NCAA Mythical Picks written, these picks will tend to be short and sweet.

(Thurs Early Afternoon) Philly at Detroit “pick ‘em” (45): The Total Line here opened the week at 47 and dropped to this level almost immediately. Statistically, the Eagles are the better team (offense, defense, scoring, scoring defense). Nevertheless, they have played some bad football in recent weeks. This is purely a hunch. I am going to try to exploit “The Mark Sanchez Factor” here. I have no idea if he will go nuts and throw 4 TDs in this game of if he will turn the ball over 3 times and give the Lions a short field. Either way, I’ll take the game to go OVER figuring that scores can be at either end of the field and that is a plus.

(Thurs Late Afternoon) Carolina at Dallas “pick ‘em” (46): One of the people on sports Radio here in Washington said there are three undefeated teams left in the NFL:

One of the three will cease to be undefeated when the clock hits zero at the end of the fourth quarter here. I think the Panthers will prevail; I’ll take them to win the game.

(Thurs Nite) Chicago at Green Bay – 9 (46.5): The Packers will retire Brett Favre’s #4 at halftime of this game and Bart Starr will be in attendance too. That means that all 3 QBs who won Super Bowls for the Packers will be in the same stadium at the same time. That is a feelgood fact that has nothing to do with the game on the field. The Total Line here opened at 48 and has been dropping slowly. The last time these teams met, the total score was 54. I see no reason why it should drop by almost 10 points here. I like the game to go OVER.

New Orleans at Houston – 3 (48): The Saints had two weeks to try to mend their woeful defense and turn it into a unit that is merely sub-standard. The Saints have given up an average of 31.5 points per game; that is the worst in the NFL; moreover, it is 3.3 points per game worse than the Chargers who rank 31st in the league on that scale. The Texans are not an offensive juggernaut so there may be a “defensive mirage” after this game. This game means a whole lot more to the Texans than it does to the Saints. The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip protocol is in effect here and the coin says to take the Saints plus the points.

Minnesota at Atlanta – 2 (46): Very simple here. I think the Vikings are the better team and I think they are playing better football these days. I like the Vikes to win the game so I’ll take them plus the points here.

St Louis at Cincy – 9 (42): The Bengals need to win just to reverse the team momentum after two losses in a row. Who knows what level of mediocrity the Rams will get out of their QB situation? Even The Shadow doesn’t know… Make this a venue call; I’ll take the Bengals to win and cover.

Tampa at Indy – 3 (46.5): The Colts are tied with the Texans atop the AFC South. This is a game they need to win. The Bucs are 5-5 meaning they will not win their division (Carolina has that sewn up) but they are in the thick of the wild card race. They too need to win this game. I like the Bucs plus the points here.

Giants – 2.5 at Washington (47): This game opened as a “pick ‘em” game and the spread went to this number in less than 24 hours. This game is important to the NFC East standings. If the Skins win, they will be tied (essentially) with the Giants; they will have split the head-to-head games and they will have the same record. If the Giants win, their lead over the Skins will be 2.5 games because they will hold the tie-breaker having swept the head-to-head games. The Skins are a much better team at home than they are on the road; on the other hand, the Giants seem to have the Skins’ number over the past several seasons; the Giants have won and covered the last 5 times these teams have met. Statistically, the Giants have the edge in this game. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip game and the coin says to take the Skins plus the points.

Oakland – 1.5 at Tennessee (44): Here is the basic question for this game. Can the Raiders shake themselves out of the funk they have been in over recent weeks? If so, they should stomp a bad Titans’ team. It is another long trip for the Raiders to make it to kickoff; I do not like that at all. I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Buffalo at KC (no lines): Tyrod Taylor was clearly hurting in the final minutes of the Monday night game. Can he play here or will the Bills have to go to EJ Manuel? Until there is clarity around Taylor’s shoulder injury, there will be no lines here. Whenever the lines go up, do not be surprised if the Total Line is 41 or less…

Miami at Jets – 3 (42.5): It is awfully early in the season to say that the Jets face a “must win” situation. Rather what they face here is a “must wake up situation”. Venue call here; I’ll take the Jets and lay the points.

San Diego at Jax – 3.5 (46): The Committee of One that analyzes the worst games of the week could not make a unique choice this week and so this game is the co-Dog Breath Game of the Week. The Chargers are awful and out of it; the Jags are awful but are still theoretically in the running for the AFC South division lead. If you are forced to watch this game, do not focus on the players; nothing important is going to happen there. Instead, use your time and energy to try to count the house in Jax whenever there is a shot of the stands. Counting people is probably going to be easier than counting empty seats. Only because I said I would make a pick in every game where there were lines, I’ll take the Jags to win and cover.

Arizona – 10 at SF (45.5): I hate laying double-digit spreads. I also think the Cards are one of the really good teams this year and that the Niners are one of the really bad teams this year. I’ll take the Cards to win and cover even on the road.

Pittsburgh at Seattle – 4 (45): This is one of the best games on the slate for the week. Both teams need this game to stay in striking position in the wild card races in their respective conferences. I think the game will be higher scoring than the Total Line here would suggest. I like the game to go OVER.

(Sun Nite) New England – 3 at Denver (44): Lost in the discussion of the QBs for this game (Brady vs Osweiler) is the fact that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense (18.1 points per game) and the Broncos are second in the NFL in that category (18.2 points per game). Assuming that the Pats do not have to resort to playing a defensive tackle at wide receiver because they have simply run out of bodies at that position, I like the Pats to win and cover here. I also like the game to stay UNDER.

(Mon Nite) Baltimore at Cleveland – 2.5 (41): The Browns demoted Johnny Manziel to 3rd string – behind Josh McCown and Austin Davis – for this game and for who knows how long. Is that a football team or a second-rate circus in Cleveland? This is the co-Dog Breath Game of the Week featuring one team wracked with injury such that it is playing its JV team against another team that has not figured out how to get out of its own way. I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip protocol and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

Happy Thanksgiving all…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 11/22/15

Last week was a mythically profitable week of mythical picking. The record was 9-6-0 bringing the cumulative record to 72-77-5. While it is by no means certain to obtain, at least the .500 level is within sight. The Coin Flip Games did well too last week with a record of 2-1-0 bringing the coin’s record for the season to 8-11-1.

The “Best Pick” from last week was the Skins/Saints game. I took the Skins plus a point and they won by 33 points; I also took the game to go OVER 50 and the total was 61.

The “Worst Picks” from last week were taking the Packers giving 11.5 point (they lost straight up) and taking the Bengals giving 10.5 points (they too lost straight up).

Instead of a disclaimer this week, let me say this directly. Do not use any information here as the basis for deciding which side to take in a real bet involving real money on a real NFL game this weekend. There is no “inside information” here; these are done for fun. If you choose to ignore the directions above, here is all I have to say:

If stupidity were an Olympic event, you would be Mark Spitz.

General Comments:

In last week’s games, Kirk Cousins had a QB Rating of 158.3 which is the highest rating allowed on the scale that purports to measure “Quarterbacking”. On the same weekend, Peyton Manning had a QB Rating of 0.0 which is the lowest rating allowed on the scale that purports to measure “Quarterbacking”. Please raise your hand if you had that back in August…

There are reports out there that the Saints will allow Sean Payton to entertain offers to ply his coaching trade elsewhere once the season is over. Last week, Payton and the Saints parted company with defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan. Many commentators have interpreted that move as a natural reaction to the sorry-assed Saints defense this year. I think there is another potential message in that firing:

Perhaps, Sean Payton did that because he anticipates contact from other teams once the season is over; and he wants all of those other teams to understand clearly that if he takes their job, it is not a “package deal”. He can be their coach without having Rob Ryan tag along as the defensive coordinator.

In action from last week, the Dolphins beat the Eagles 20-19 and Eagles’ QB, Sam Bradford separated his left shoulder in the game and also suffered a concussion. At the time of his departure, he was 19-25 for 236 yards and 1 TD. His injury ushered in Mark Sanchez. Trailing by a point late in the 4th quarter, the Eagles had the ball deep in Dolphin territory; a field goal would probably win the game. It was at that instant that Mark Sanchez threw an interception in the end zone and the game ended.

Eagles’ fans – particularly the ones who have been screeching for Bradford to be benched in favor of Sanchez – need to recognize what they have in a backup QB. Sanchez has shown himself over the course of his career to be unpredictably inconsistent. There will be games – and large stretches of other games – where Sanchez is efficient and effective to the point where a viewer might say to himself,

“Hey, maybe this is the turning point for him; maybe the light just went on for him; he looks like a real NFL QB.”

And then there will be the games when he throws a deadly interception in the end zone when there is no reason on the planet to have thrown the ball to any receiver who was not open by 5 yards. Or worse yet, a butt-fumble… From here to the end of the season, Eagles’ games are going to be impossible to “handicap” because it is a flip of the coin as to what sort of quarterback play the team will get from week to week and even quarter to quarter. Back in August, I had the Eagles winning 10 games this season; they will be fortunate to win 8.

Elsewhere in the NFC East, the Cowboys lost to the Bucs last week 10-6. Matt Cassel had another mediocre game at QB and Dez Bryant caught 5 passes for a grand total of 45 yards. The Cowboys’ defense kept them in the game; they led 6-3 until the final moments when Jameis Winston ran a bootleg from the 1-yardline for a TD to win the game. Tony Romo returns this week. Unless he is so rusty that his performance is no better than throwing up on his shoes, he has to represent an advance for the Cowboys’ offense. Having lost 7 games in a row with Romo on the sidelines, the best the Cowboys can do is to go 9-7 for the season. Looking at their remaining schedule, I guess you can imagine them running the table; but it is not nearly an easy path:

Staying in the NFC East for the moment, the Giants lost to the Pats 27-26 on a last second field goal. This was an entertaining game to watch from start to finish. The Giants led by 2 points with about 1:45 left on the clock and the Pats with no timeouts and the ball on the Pats’ 20 yardline. That was just too much time to leave Tom Brady who took the ball down to field goal range and a 1-point win.

The only team in the NFC East to win last week was the Skins and they did so in the most emphatic win of the week. The Skins beat the Saints 47-14; at one point in the middle of the second quarter the score was 14-14 and it looked as if this game might resemble the game the Saints and Giants put on a couple of weeks ago where the final score was 52-49. The Saints stopped scoring but the Skins did not. I mentioned above that Kirk Cousins had a “perfect QB Rating” for the game. Cousins has been in the NFL since 2012, but he has not yet started 20 games; he is – in terms of experience – a rookie QB. If you watch him run the offense that Jay Gruden wants to run in Washington and look at him as a “rookie QB” and not a “4-year veteran”, you should be impressed. He can run that offense; and fortunately for him, his contract is up at the end of this season. He is in line for a significant payday…

Rather than extend the discussion of Cousins’ prowess at the QB position to outrageous levels, please recognize that last week he played against an inordinately inept Saints’ defense. The Saints do not merely lack “playmakers” on defense; they lack “competent players”. As mentioned above, the Saints did fire Rob Ryan after the game last week and I think this is a case where a firing or two on the defensive staff might be justified. The Saints’ defenders do not tackle people; they do not “wrap up”. Even when one or two of them are in position to stop a play, the offensive player gains plenty of yards after contact because the offensive player is bumped and not tackled. Some of that goes directly to coaching shortcomings.

Just to give you a flavor of how bad the Saints defense has been abused this year, consider how these QBs performed against that unit:

As you might imagine from those numbers, here is how the Saints’ defense stacks up as they head into their Bye Week “under new management” so to speak:

Don’t look now, but the Bears are on a 2-game winning streak and both wins were on the road. Last week, the Bears went to St. Louis and beat the Rams by 24 points. The Rams will bench Nick Foles this week and turn the QB duties over to Case Keenum. Foles was unimpressive last week going 17-36 for only 200 yards.

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 29-13 and led 19-0 at halftime. Peyton Manning threw 4 INTs in the first half and was benched for the second half; he will not start this week; Brock Osweiler will be under center for the Broncos. The report is that Manning has a partially torn plantar fascia; how long it might take for that to heal is a mystery to me. I have the idea that if Brock Osweiler lights it up this week and throws for 350 yards and 4 TDs, the injury will not be healed by next week…

The Bills beat the Jets 22-17 in a game that did not come close to living up to the hype that it generated. It did have one very annoying feature; neither team wore its usual uniforms; the Bills were all in red and the Jets were all in green. Unless you were color blind, it was easy to tell one team from the other but the numbers on the red jerseys did not stand out nearly as well as they should and it was difficult at times to identify Bills’ players. The NFL is going to have “special uniforms” for Thursday Night Games down the road; that is not welcome news.

My long-suffering wife happened to glance at the TV at one point during the game and asked about the Bills’ all-red uniforms. After I explained that this was a new idea from some marketing troll at the NFL, she had this observation:

Memo to the NFL Marketing Trolls: Do not take that suggestion seriously. Do not put snowflakes on red pants for future games.

The Bills won by 5 points in a game where they took the ball away from the Jets 4 times (2 INTs and 2 recovered fumbles). Le Sean McCoy ran very well; it appears as if he is recovered from whatever injury he sustained in training camp that carried over into the early parts of the season.

The Jags beat the Ravens on the final play of the game. Actually, it was on the play after the final play and it should not have happened because on the final play there was an offensive penalty that should have negated the final play – on which there was a defensive penalty. If that is confusing, it ought to be. The game should have been over with the Ravens in the lead; the officials botched the call; there was no booth review; the Ravens were jobbed. For the Ravens, it really does not matter; their record now stands at 2-7; it is not as if they would be Super Bowl contenders if their record was 3-6.

For the Jags, it might be a big deal. The AFC South is such a mess that it makes a tire fire look like a luau. The Colts and Texans lead the way in the division with 4-5 records; the Jags are one game behind at 3-6. The Jags are not any good, but if you look at their schedule, they do not face any top-shelf teams from here on out. If the cards fall their way, they might actually win that sorry-assed division. Here is the rest of the Jags schedule:

By the way, if the Jags were to win the AFC South, that would mean they would host a playoff game…

The Bengals played a listless MNF game and lost to the Texans 10-6. After suffering their first loss of the year, the Bengals travel to Arizona this week to play a good Cardinals’ team. That will be an interesting test for the resiliency of this Bengals’ squad.

The Steelers beat the Browns handily even though an injured Ben Roethlisberger had to play most of the game on a bad foot after Landry Jones left the sidelines on a cart. All Roethlisberger did was to go 22-33 for 379 yards and 3 TDs. That win maintains the Steelers stature in the AFC wild card race. They are 3 games behind the Bengals on the loss column so it will take a significant unraveling by the Bengals for the Steelers to win the division; their focus needs to be on a wild card slot.

The Browns say they will go with Johnny Manziel at QB for the rest of the season. Who knows if that will actually be the case? However, it is the logical thing for the Browns to do. At the moment, they are in line to have the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft; it would be nice for them to know if they are comfortable with Manziel as their QB for the next few years.

The Browns are a mess. In the game against the Steelers they committed 12 penalties for 188 yards and giving the Steelers 5 first downs; they ran the ball 14 times gaining 15 yards; they had the ball in “goal to go situations” 3 times and scored 0 TDs in those situations.

The Vikings beat the Raiders 30-14 last week to run the Vikes record to 7-2 and to put the Vikes in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Adrian Peterson ran for 203 yards in the game including an 80-yard TD run late in the game to seal the win. [Aside: That was Peterson’s 6th game with more than 200 yards rushing. The only other back to have done that in NFL history was OJ Simpson.] The Vikes’ defense held Latavius Murray to 48 yards rushing and Terry Bridgewater to 140 yards passing in the game. The Vikes’ schedule is almost the antithesis of the Jags’ schedule listed above; the Vikes have a bunch of tough games ahead – but as of now they lead the division. Here is what is in front of them:

The Vikings have won 5 games in a row; they are undefeated at home and are 3-2 on the road. Yes they have a tough schedule ahead but when you consider the current state of the Packers, things might not look as bleak. The Packers lost their third game in a row last week; they have not won a game since they had their Bye Week on October 25. The first two losses in that streak are “explainable”; they lost on the road to then-undefeated Denver and then they lost on the road to still-undefeated Carolina. Last week’s loss is much more difficult to explain – let alone understand. The Packers lost at home to the Lions; that is the first time the Lions have won a game in Lambeau Field since 1991.

Coming into the game, the Lions’ defense ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of yards per pass attempt. The Packers threw the ball 61 times in the game and only scored 16 points; at the end of the 3rd quarter, the Packers had only 3 points on the board. It seems as if the loss of Jordy Nelson as the lead receiver for the team has had its impact; Devonta Adams was the main target last week and while he may someday develop into a good receiver, he is not at Jordy Nelson’s level. James Jones was a major part of the pass offense earlier this year; last week he caught exactly 0 passes. Eddie Lacy was inactive for last week’s game and – truth be told – it looks as if Lacy is not nearly the reliable runner that he has been in the past. The Packers ran the ball 18 times against the Lions for only 47 yards. Here is a current assessment of the Packers:

They cannot run the ball.

The defense is good one week and horrid the next. (Recall that Philip Rivers threw for 500+ yards in a losing effort against the Packers.)

The Packers’ situation may best be described by recalling the way Michael Ray Richardson famously described the state of the NY Knicks back in the early 1980s:

“The ship be sinking…”

The Games:

Four teams will take this week off:

Browns:

Giants: They lead the NFC East by half a game as of now; so they will be prepping for a stretch run – and rooting against the Skins and the Eagles this week.

Saints: They will try to adjust to a new defensive “philosophy” and maintain the fiction that they can still make the playoffs if they make a few “adjustments”.

Steelers: They will use the week off to let Ben Roethlisberger’s foot heal some more and to find out if Landry Jones will be available as his backup down the line this year.

(Thurs Nite) Tennessee at Jax – 3 (41.5): I know this is a “division game” and I know that I said above that the Jags had an easy schedule in front of them that could put them in contention to win that division. Nonetheless, neither team is any good; and so, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week despite its being a national game. The Titans have a propensity to play down to the level of bad opponents – like the Jags:

I am not a “trend bettor”. I do think the Titans are not as good as the Jags – unless of course this is one of those games where Marcus Mariota is at the top of his biorhythm cycles. Jags are 22 yards per game better on offense and 36 yards per game better on defense. I will hold my nose and take the Jags to win and cover at home.

Washington at Carolina – 7 (45.5): While I have said for the last two seasons that Kirk Cousins is well-suited to Jay Gruden’s offense and said above that he looks now as if he is really “getting it”, I have no confidence that he can earn a “perfect QB Rating” this week against the Panthers’ defense. I think the Panthers’ power running game and their defense will dominate the game. One other thing here; the Skins are 4-5 overall but they are 0-4 on the road. I like the Panthers to win and cover.

Oakland – 1 at Detroit (48): I do not like taking the Raiders on a long road trip particularly if I have to lay points. I also do not like taking the Lions without getting a sackful of points. Therefore, I will look at the Total Line here… The Oakland defense is “suspect”; it yields 408.6 yards per game. The Lions’ offense has been mediocre this season but this is the defense that ought to give it a shot in the arm. The Raiders have not had too much difficulty scoring and the Lions’ defense is hardly “elite”. I’ll take the game to go OVER.

Dallas at Miami “pick ‘em” (47): Even if Tony Romo suffers a bit of “ring rust”, he ought to put some bounce into the step of the Cowboys’ offense. Just his presence in the huddle in place of Brandon Weeden and/or Matt Cassel and/or whomever might make Dez Bryant start to play like Dez Bryant and make Jason Witten start to look like the Jason Witten fans have come to expect. The oddsmaker wants me to pick the winner; OK, I’ll take the Cowboys to win the game.

Indy at Atlanta – 6 (47): The Colts are not very good and the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4 games. This game got fleeting consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week but the Falcons record of 6-3 made that label inappropriate. Statistically, this game is a mismatch. The Falcons are 49 yards per game better on offense and 52 yards per game better on defense. However, lots of those stats are left over from the hot 5-0 start the Falcons got this year; in the last 4 games the Falcons have scored 67 points (17 points per game). This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Colts plus the points. OK, then…

St Louis at Baltimore – 2.5 (41.5): This game also got serious consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week given the Ravens’ ugly season and the Rams’ inconsistency. However, the overall ineptitude of the Jags and Titans tilted the balance in that direction. This game has an interesting angle:

The Rams’ pass offense produces a measly 6.2 yards per attempt.

The Rams will start Case Keenum at QB.

So, will the inept Rams’ offense be able to flourish against the inept Ravens defense – – or vice versa? This is another Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to stay UNDER.

Jets – 2.5 at Houston (no Total Line): You have to go looking for a line on this game; most sportsbooks have it off the board for now until there is some clarity regarding who will be the Texans’ QB in the game. As of this morning, Brian Hoyer has not been cleared through the NFL concussion protocol putting TJ Yates under center. That could change by Sunday but… I am not thrilled by having to take the Jets here but I do not want the Texans if Yates has to play. Therefore, I will take the Jets – and an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick – and lay the points.

Green Bay at Minnesota – 1 (45): This may be the most important game of the week if not the best game of the week. A Vikes’ win here would give them a 2 game lead and a tiebreaker advantage over the Packers with 6 games to go. It would also mean that the Packers would be on a 4-game losing streak. The Vikings defense is good; they only give up 17 points per game. I like the Vikings here to win and cover.

Tampa at Philly – 5.5 (45): The line here opened the week at 4 points and has climbed steadily to this level. In fact, you can find it at 6 points at 2 Internet sportsbooks this morning. Both teams bring 4-5 records to the game. The difference is this:

The Eagles have a SLIM chance to win their division with the Giants atop the division at 5-5.

Give the motivation edge to the Eagles; give the venue edge to the Eagles. Now, which version of “Mark Sanchez the Quarterback” will show up? It is another Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

Denver at Chicago – 1 (41): The Broncos cannot expect Brock Osweiler to light up the scoreboard here even against a mediocre Bears’ defense. The Broncos’ defense will have to return to its “domination mode” from early this season for the Broncos to win this game. They get Aquib Talib back from his one game suspension for doing a credible imitation of a pro rassler poking his opponent in the eye. That will help. What would help even more would be for Demarcus Ware’s back injury to heal sufficiently that he could see action here; as of this morning, that looks unlikely. I think that Total Line is short; I’ll take the game to go OVER.

SF at Seattle – 12.5 (40): I hate laying double-digit spreads in NFL games. If I expect a low-scoring game, I prefer to take the points – particularly double-digit points. I will violate those principles here and take the Seahawks to win and cover. Here’s why:

The Niners did not have Anquan Boldin at practice on Wednesday (hamstring).

The Niners did not have Carlos Hyde at practice on Wednesday (foot).

The Niners did not have NaVorro Bowman at practice on Wednesday (shoulder).

The Niners will start Blaine Gabbert at QB.

Ka-beeesh?

KC – 3 at San Diego (44): The Chargers are not very good and they were battered and bruised going into their Bye Week last week. I do not trust the Chargers and I do not trust the Chiefs on the road as a favorite. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the game to stay UNDER. That is good enough for me…

(Sun Nite) Cincy at Arizona – 5 (48): This is the best game of the week; these are two good teams. The spread opened the week at 3 points; it jumped to 3.5 points almost immediately and has climbed steadily to this level as the week progressed. The Total Line opened at 47 points and has been steady at this level for several days now. Both teams need this game as both eye the potential for a Bye Week in the playoffs. I like the Cards to win and cover here and I like the game to go OVER.

(Mon Nite) Buffalo at New England – 7.5 (48.5): This is the second best game of the week and one that will have more hype tied to it than any other. The loss of Julian Edleman for 6-8 weeks is a significant loss. This is the 3rd straight division game for the Bills (they won the first two) and a win here puts them solidly in the AFC wild card picture. I think the line is fat; I’ll take the Bills plus the points.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend of 11/15/15

Last week’s Mythical Picks sank below mediocre and plummeted to just plain awful. The record for the week was 4-8-0 making the season record drop to 63-71-5. The Coin Flipping fared no better; the coin’s record last week was 0-1-0 bringing the nominally neutral coin’s record for the season down to 6-10-1.

The “Best Pick” from last week was taking the Panthers +2.5 points; the Panthers won the game straight up.

The “Worst Pick” last week was taking the Saints and giving 7.5 points; the Saints lost outright.

Obviously, you would have to be mightily stupid to take any information herein and use it as the basis for making a real wager involving real money on a real NFL game this weekend or any other weekend. Here is how dumb you would need to be:

You would try to kill a fish by drowning it.

General Comments:

Aqib Talib is not going to be playing this weekend for the Broncos. He is suspended for a game by the league for poking an opponent in the eye during last week’s game. Watching the replay, I thought Moe Howard had been resurrected, signed by the Broncos and inserted into the game as a CB. The NFL announced the suspension; Talib appealed the suspension; the league upheld the suspension; all that happened by Wednesday at noon.

I mention this because I hope it is a recognition by the NFL that they can – and they should – make these sorts of decisions quickly. Granted, there were not a lot of nuanced levels of evidence to collect via investigation in this matter. Nonetheless, recent history would suggest that it might take the NFL appeals process two weeks to decide between milk and half-and-half for the coffee served at the hearing.

Kudos to the NFL for their alacrity here.
Keep it up!

I do not know who it was at ESPN who came up with the Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) system nor do I know who maintains the database that generates the ratings. What I do know is that like many other forms of advanced analytics, some of the conclusions just do not pass the “Eyeball Test”. Here are some data on starting quarterbacks this year. Which of the following statements does not pass the “Eyeball Test”?

2. Carson Palmer has the highest ranking among starting QBs this year. He is having a fantastic season.

3. Andy Dalton has the second highest QBR among starting QBs this year. He too is having a fantastic season.

4. Ryan Fitzpatrick has the 3rd highest QBR this year; Aaron Rodgers has the 4th highest rating and Tom Brady has the 5th highest QBR.

Hold it right there; we have a winner; that last one makes me wonder about the value of the QBR itself. All that Tom Brady has managed to achieve this year is an 8-0 record while throwing more TD passes and fewer INTs than any other starting QB.

The Detroit Lions fired their GM (Martin Mayhew) and their team president (Tom Lewand) last week. It was only a couple of weeks ago that the team fired a couple of the offensive coaches to include the offensive coordinator. The Lions record as of this morning is 1-7 and that is the worst record in the NFL; the Lions are not merely losing games, they are losing some of them by a lot. The average score of a Lions game this year is:

In 2009, the US Government bailed out General Motors when the company was about to go belly-up. Well, the Lions are going paws-up this year and could use a bailout. Unfortunately, the Lions are owned by the Fords not the General Motors…

Last Thursday night, the Bengals handled the Browns with aplomb. Johnny Manziel got the start at QB for the Browns and played the entire game. To be sure, he did not throw up on his shoes but he also did not do anything to announce that he is the franchise QB of the future for a team that has not had a franchise QB since re-entering the NFL in 1999. At the end of the game, the announcers were asking rhetorically if Manziel had shown enough in that game to merit the starting job in future weeks. Here is my answer:

Go with Johnny Manziel

The only rational way to make that choice is to see a lot more of Manziel in real game action against the starters for the opposing teams. That does not happen nearly enough in the Exhibition Season, so the time is now…

Speaking of throwing up on one’s shoes, the Saints did that and more last week as they lost to the sorry-assed Titans. Yes, I know; the Titans looked like a new team now that they have a new coach. Pardon my skepticism there… A few weeks ago, it looked as if the Saints’ defense and the defensive coaching staff had figured out how to deploy those players in a way that made the opposing offenses have to work to score points. Recently, let me be polite and say the Saints have had a relapse on defense.

Last week, the Saints gave up 483 yards of offense to the Titans who entered the game with the 31st ranked offense in the NFL. Recall that two weeks ago, the Saints scored 52 points against the Giants and needed a last second field goal to win that game 52-49. You have heard of defenses that bend but do not break; the Saints defense bends AND breaks. Just to clarify, that is not a good thing…

In any event, the Titans’ new coach, Mike Mularkey, is now 1-0 in Tennessee. Before getting carried away, let me say that one win does not make an interim coach into a genius. If you doubt that, check out Dan Campbell in Miami.

Here is a question:

Is Dan Campbell still on the fast track for induction in Canton next summer?

After his Dolphins beat the Titans and Texans in his first two games, much of the media hailed him as coaching genius. Well, since beating those two less-than-fearsome opponents, here is what the Dolphins have done:

In that loss to the Bills, the Dolphins’ defense allowed both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy to gain more than 110 yards rushing (as a team the Bills gained 266 yards on the ground) and allowed Sammy Watkins to catch 8 passes for 168 yards. Three of the Bills’ scoring plays were 38 yards or longer. It sure looks as if the rah-rah/gung-ho/tough-guy stuff that Campbell was selling a month ago has reached its Sell By Date.

Those last two losses – both to AFC East opponents – gives the Dolphins an 0-4 record in the division. That is never attractive but it does get worse. In the 4 losses within the division here is the average score:

Greg Cote had this assessment in the Miami Herald:

“The Dan Campbell Bandwagon is now in a ditch and waiting on AAA.”

The Vikings beat the Rams 21-18 in OT. In the first quarter, the Rams got a TD and went for 2 points but failed to convert. That “missing point” turned out to be extremely important when the fourth quarter came around and the Rams kicked a field goal to tie the game and send it to OT. One more point would have obviated the need for OT and put a win on the board for the Rams.

There has been plenty of controversy related to this game and the hit on Terry Bridgewater that knocked him out of the game. Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer pointed the finger at Rams’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams saying he “had a history” and later various other analysts have said that Jeff Fisher’s teams play dirty defense. I do not read minds and I certainly do not have any inside info from the Rams’ defensive coaches but here is my conclusion having seen the replays:

AND

Was the defender “coached up” to play that way? I don’t know.

All of that drama has overshadowed the matchup of Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson in that game. Gurley gained 89 yards and scored a TD; Peterson gained 124 yards and scored a TD.

The Jets beat the Jags 28-23 despite Blake Bortles throwing for 381 yards in the game. The Jets recorded 6 sacks, 2 INTs and recovered one fumble in the game; the Saints ought to take notice here; that is a defense that bends but does not break. The Jags are a bad team and bad teams invent ways to lose games. Let me give you a condensed play sequence from late in this game:

Next play, Bortles is sacked; he fumbles and the Jets recover the ball at the Jets’ 34 yardline.

Jags hold on 4 downs and force a punt. The returner muffs the punt and the Jets recover at the Jags’ 25 yardline.

Three plays later the Jets score making it 28-16 with 2:41 to play.

Jags score on 3 plays with 2:14 to play making the score 28-23.

Jags hold again and force a punt they receive at their own 8 yardline with 0:54 to play.

First play is an interception by the Jets at the Jags 22. Game Over.

A strip sack; a muffed punt and an INT in the span of less than 6 minutes at the end of a game decided by less than a TD…

The Pats dominated the Skins 27-10. Trust me, it was not that close… All of the RG3 acolytes who climb all over Kirk Cousins for his propensity to throw INTs cannot hang this loss on Cousins. The Pats recorded one INT but that ball hit Pierre Garcon in the hands and on the helmet before bouncing about 15 feet into the air such that a defender could run under it and catch it. Skins’ “pass-catchers” were actually “pass-droppers” here; they have to have dropped at least a half dozen passes that hit them on both hands. Oh, and the “running game” was dormant amassing a total of 37 yards for the day. Meanwhile the Skins’ run defense yielded 167 yards for the game. The only “bright light” for the Skins was that they held Tom Brady to less than 300 yards for the game; he passed for 299 yards.

DeSean Jackson returned to action for the Skins giving them the “deep threat” they say they have needed so badly. He caught 3 passes for 15 yards; the long gain was 9 yards. I doubt that struck fear in the hearts of the Pats’ defensive coaches…

The Steelers beat the Raiders 38-35 in an entertaining game. This gives the Steelers a half-game lead over the Raiders in the AFC wild card chase. However the win came at a price; Ben Roethlisberger suffered a foot injury that will keep him out several weeks. The Steelers survived 4 weeks without Big Ben earlier this year but the Landry Jones’ showing against the Chiefs ought to make the Steelers faithful just a tad queasy.

The Steelers face the Browns this week and then they have a Bye Week. It is possible that Jones will only need to hold the fort for one game here and that is probably a good thing because the Steelers’ schedule after Thanksgiving is not trivial:

The Raiders have had some pretty bad teams over the last 12 years since losing in the Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Bucs after the 2002 season. In that span, they have never had a season over .500; and in 10 of the last 12 seasons, they have suffered double-digit losses. Nonetheless, last week’s defensive showing has to be a low-point even by the standards of the last 12 years.

Antonio Brown caught 17 passes for 284 yards.

DeAngelo Williams gained 170 yards on 27 carries with 2 TDs.

David Amerson was the defender chasing Antonio Brown for much of the game; it looked almost as if Amerson was playing flag-football as he lunged and groped just to make contact with Brown. Maybe the Raiders’ fans should not be too harsh on Amerson; after all, he was cut by the Skins just a few weeks ago meaning he could not make the field on that defense. There is no real reason to believe that a change in latitude was going to make Amerson into a Pro-Bowler.

The Giants beat the Bucs 32-18 but the final TD by the Giants with no time left came when they recovered a fumbled lateral and ran it into the end zone. The Bucs were in full-scramble mode on the play and it backfired. The Giants recovered 3 fumbles on the day and those fumble recoveries led to 17 points. Do the math and you will see that the fumbles had a profound effect on who won and who lost. The Giants exhibited bend-but do-not-break on defense. In the first half, the Bucs had the ball inside the Giant’s 10 yardline and came away with 0 TDs.

In another example of a team inventing a way to lose a game, the Falcons lost to the Niners 17-16. Here is what went down late in that game:

After two short completions and an incomplete pass, the Falcons have the ball 4th and goal at the 1 yardline with 3:00 to play. They are down 4 points.

The Falcons kick a field goal leaving them one point down at 17-16.

The Niners take possession at their 20 after the kickoff and proceed to run the ball 5 times to gain 2 first downs and then “kneel out the clock”. Falcons never saw the ball again.

In case you wonder why the Falcons did not just run the ball in from the 1 yardline, here is how the Falcons’ running game was working last week:

They ran the ball 14 times for a total of 17 yards…

Question:

Are the Falcons in full-collapse mode?

The Colts beat the Broncos 27-24. Basically, the Colts dominated the first half and the Broncos came back to make a game of it in the second half. I started off these comments with a note about Aqib Talib and his eye-poking incident. That was more than just an unsportsmanlike play; it generated a 15-yard penalty against the Broncos that kept a late Colts’ possession alive. The Broncos’ defense had an off game and the Colts played much better than they have played all season long. Now, the Colts will have to go at least several weeks without Andrew Luck who suffered an abdominal muscle injury and a lacerated kidney in the 4th quarter. Yes, I know that Matt Hasselbeck subbed for Luck earlier this year and won both games. Here is the more important thing; this is what is left for the Colts looking ahead:

That is a pillow-soft schedule… The Colts lead the miserable AFC South by a half game despite their 4-5 record.

The Panthers dominated the Packers for three quarters and led 30-14 when the fourth quarter started. The Packers rallied in the 4th quarter and it took a red zone INT by the Panthers to save a score that would have had the Packers only a 2-point conversion away from a tie. Cam Newton threw for 297 yards and ran for another 57 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers defense harassed Aaron Rodgers all game; the defense recorded 5 sacks during the game.

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 33-27 in OT. Matt Cassel played like a real NFL QB in this game; the reason the Cowboys lost this game is that their defense was dragging itself all over the field for the 4th quarter and the OT. Cassel did throw a Pick Six in the game but overall his stat line is commendable (25 of 38, 299 yards, 3 TD) despite the fact that the Eagles’ defense had him under pressure all game long (the defense recorded 4 sacks). The Cowboys are 2-6 – having lost 6 games in row since Tony Romo broke his clavicle – and they need a win badly. The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East when Romo is healthy and playing QB, but they may be too far behind to win out and still win the division if they lose all of the games that he cannot start.

Imagine a scenario where the Cowboys finish at 8-8 where all 8 wins are games that Tony Romo starts and all 8 losses are games where he is on the sidelines. That might make a powerful argument when it comes time to vote for MVP…

DeMarco Murray’s return to Dallas was a successful one for him and for the Eagles. Murray ran for 83 yards and caught passes for an additional 78 yards. Paired with Ryan Matthews – and using Darren Sproles randomly – the Eagles have a running attack that can control game tempo so long as the Eagles’ OL is in sync.

The Bears/Chargers game on MNF was close; other than that, the game had exactly nothing to recommend it. Alshon Jeffery caught 10 passes for 151 yards in the game.

The Games:

Here are the teams on a Bye Week:

Colts: They will be rooting for the Bengals to beat the Texans on MNF this week.

Falcons: They were 5-0 at one point; now they are 6-3 and look discombobulated; they have 2 weeks to correct that.

Niners: Blaine Gabbert won them a game last week; they now have 2 weeks to figure out who will be their QB for the next game.

(Thurs Nite) Buffalo at Jets – 2.5 (42.5): Forget all the storylines; this game is important because it has playoff implications. The Jets are 5-3; the Bills are 4-4; the winner of this game will have the lead in the wild card chase and second place in the AFC East. Yes, the teams will play again on the final weekend of the season; nevertheless this is a big game. The Jets hold slight statistical advantages on offense and on defense and they are at home. Make this a venue call in a game between two closely matched teams; I’ll take the Jets and lay the points.

Detroit at Green Bay – 11.5 (47.5): The Packers have lost 2 games in a row and fans in Green Bay think the sky is falling. The Lions are 1-7 and fans in Detroit wonder what’s new. I expect the Packers to be rejuvenated by their return home after two weeks on the road playing then-undefeated teams. I hate laying double-digits but I cannot take the Lions against a Packers’ team that needs a win and is playing at home. I’ll take the Packers to win and cover.

Dallas at Tampa – 1.5 (43.5): The Cowboys do need this game (see above). The Cowboys have 6 losses on the books already; still on the schedule are the Panthers (at home on Thanksgiving) and the Packers (in Green Bay in December). It is difficult to paint an early-November game as a “must-win” game, but this one comes close for the Cowboys. The Bucs and their rookie QB play well some of the time and play poorly some of the time; you would need a Ouija board to figure out what kind of game they will play. This is a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game. The coin says to take the Cowboys plus the points.

Carolina – 5 at Tennessee (44): The spread opened at 6.5 and has dropped slowly to this level; you can still find it at 5.5 at a couple of Internet sportsbooks. I understand the thinking that the Panthers may take the Titans lightly after the Panthers navigated a schedule that packed a bunch of good teams on after another against them; by comparison, the Titans look like a walk in the park. However, the Panthers’ defense should make life very difficult for the Titans’ rookie QB. I like the game to stay UNDER.

Chicago at St. Louis – 7.5 (42.5): The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in total offense; they gain an average of 312.6 yards per game. The Bears are better than that; they rank 22nd in the NFL in total offense gaining 347.1 yards per game. On defense the Rams are fifth in the league allowing only 323.8 yards per game while the Bears rank 9th giving up 342 yards per game. This should be a game dominated by defense. Therefore, I’ll take the Bears plus the points.

New Orleans – 1 at Washington (50): The dogs are barking here but upon further review, this game finishes second in the run to be labeled the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Both teams can still believe they might be playoff participants; both teams can still believe in the Tooth Fairy too. The Saints lead the NFL in total offense; the Saints rank 31st in the NFL in total defense. This is an outdoor game on grass; that is not the most favorable set of conditions for the Saints. I like the Skins plus the point here and I like this game to go OVER.

Miami at Philly – 6.5 (47.5): I have no idea how this game will play out so I am turning the game over the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol. The coin says to take the Dolphins plus the points. Let it be written; let it be done…

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 5 (41): The Steeler do need this game for wild card purposes and they are going to have to go with Landry Jones at the controls and without LeVeon Bell to run the ball. If the opponent here were competent, I would be poised to tell Steelers’ fans to prepare for the worst. But the opponent here will be the Browns and the Browns are not competent. The Steelers are 40 yards per game better on offense and 27 yards per game better on defense. Moreover, that offensive advantage includes 4 games without Ben Roethlisberger on the field. The only thing the Browns have going for them is that this is a big rivalry game but that knife cuts both ways. I like the Steelers here to win and cover at home.

Jax at Baltimore – 5.5 (48): The dogs are howling loudly here; this is indeed the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Both teams are 2-6; neither team is any good. Let me break out the coin once again and submit to Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol. The coin says to take the game to stay UNDER.

Minnesota at Oakland – 3 (44): These are not the sexiest teams in the NFL but this is clearly one of the best games of the week. The Vikes have won 4 games in a row and would be a playoff team if the season ended now. The Raiders lost last week but are right in the thick of the AFC wild card race. Both teams need to win this game. The Raiders enjoy a 55 yards per game advantage on offense; the Vikings enjoy a 79 yards per game advantage on defense. Make this a venue call; I like the Raiders to win and cover.

KC at Denver – 6 (42): With a 3-5 record, the Chiefs are not out of it with regard to the wild card race; however, they do not have a lot of slack in that line. The Broncos lost their first game of the year last week and now see themselves sitting at 7-1 but not being in position to have a Bye Week in the playoffs. I think there is plenty of motivation for the Broncos and that means the Chiefs will not have any edge at all in the game. I think the Bronco’s defense will be out to atone for last week’s performance. I’ll take the Broncos to win and cover at home.

New England – 7.5 at Giants (55): Here is another really good game on this week’s card. The last time the Pats beat the Giants was in 2007. The Giants need this game to stay in control of the NFC East; the Pats do not need the game in the standings but they need the game just because these are the Giants they are playing and the Giants have been their tormentors. I think the Pats will win here but I also think that line is fat – particularly with that hook on top of the TD’s worth of points. I’ll take the Giants at home plus the points.

(Sun Nite) Arizona at Seattle – 3 (45): This might be the best game of the week. If you want to understand what it means for a team to “need” a win in early November, look no further than the Seahawks here.

With a win here – and a win in Arizona on Jan 3 – they can catch the Cards.

With a loss here they are in a miasma with a bunch of other teams with losing records hoping against hope for a playoff spot.

Oh, don’t think that the Cards do not realize all of this and recognize the opportunity they have to open up a 3-game lead on the Seahawks with only 7 games left to play. Both teams took last week off to prep for this encounter. Richard Sherman will shut down one side of the field to the Cards’ passing game, but the Cards can throw the ball to a whole lot of receivers all over the field. I think the Cards will win straight up so I’ll take them plus the points – even in Seattle.

(Mon Nite) Houston at Cincy – 10.5 (47.5): The spread here opened at 12 and dropped almost immediately to this level. No, I do not understand why that happened. I do not like the matchup of the Texans’ offense against the Bengals’ defense. I’ll take the Bengals and lay the points.

Finally, now that Jason Pierre-Paul has returned to the field for the Giants after his 4th of July injury involving fireworks and the loss of parts of his hand, here are two comments from sportswriters related to that situation:

“Good to see Jason Pierre-Paul back in action with the Giants. Also good that he’s accepting responsibility for what happened, not pointing any fingers.” [Scott Ostler, SF Chronicle]

And …

“An employee at a chicken-processing plant that supplies KFC lost two fingertips while on the job.

“Even worse, he got blood all over his lucky Jason Pierre-Paul jersey.” [Dwight Perry, Seattle Times]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………