Category: Daily Rants

Being a fan of an NFL team ensures that the person adopting that status will experience stratospherically high emotions and abysmally low times as well.  Some of the low points are so dramatically deflating that they exist in the collective memory of a team’s fandom so fundamentally that they can be recalled with a simple phrase.  Consider:

1. Bears’ Fans can go decades on end without hearing anyone refer to a “Double
   Doink”.
2. Browns’ Fans all remember “The Drive”.  John Elway engineered a 98-yard drive with only a few minutes left in an AFC Championship Game with the Browns leading by a TD.  “The Drive” sent the game to OT and the Browns lost there.
3. Chiefs’ Fans are still embarrassed to be reminded of Abner Haynes winning the coin toss in an overtime playoff game and botching the choice by telling the referee “we’ll kick to the clock”.
4. Colts’ Fans remember well the “Second half onside kick” in the Super Bowl game against the Saints.
5. Cowboys’ Fans need only to hear the name “Leon Lett” before they bow their heads and shake their heads.
6. Dolphins’ Fans old enough to have witnessed the “Snowplow Game” are still frustrated by the result of the game and how it came to be known by that moniker.
7. Falcons’ Fans prefer never to recall leading in the third quarter of a Super Bowl game by the score of “28 to 3”.
8. Giants’ Fans vividly recall the botched handoff from Joe Pisarcik to Larry Czonka that led to the infamous “Miracle in the Meadowlands”.
9. Jets’ Fans all remember the “Butt Fumble”.  It may not have happened in a playoff context, but it was on national TV in prime time on Thanksgiving for all the world to see.
10. Pats’ Fans can be triggered by one of two phrases to recall their utter despair.  The two phrases refer to the same low-point; the phrases are “David Tyree” and/or “Helmet Catch”.  Those memories are all the more painful because they recall a Super bowl defeat.
11. Raiders’ Fans can debate which of two phrases is more galling.  Would it be “Immaculate Reception” or “Tuck Rule”?
12. Seahawks’ Fans feel a sharp pain every time the name “Malcom Butler” enters the conversation.

The above is not an exhaustive list; it is simply a compendium of the embarrassing and frustrating instances in the history of a dozen of the NFL franchises.  So, some of you are probably wondering why this is of any particular interest today.  After all, that Chiefs’ fans trigger point happened all the way back in 1962 when the team was still known as the Dallas Texans.

I bring it up today because one NFL fan base now has two disastrous moments etched in its collective memory and the same phrase will bring to the fore each and/or both of the two disasters.  As far as I can recall, this situation is not duplicated elsewhere; there was only one “Snowplow Game”; the “Tuck Rule” was only invoked once; there has only been one “Miracle in the Meadowlands”.  But as of this morning the following situation obtains:

• Bills’ Fans can be doubly haunted by two words – – “Wide right…”

In a Super Bowl game against the Giants in 1991, the Giants led the Bills 20-19 with about 10 seconds to go in the game.  The Bills set up to try a 47-yard field goal by Scott Norwood; the game was on the line.  Al Michaels was doing play-by-play for that game and when Norwood missed the field goal, Michaels’ call was “Wide right…”  It became a horrible memory for Bills’ fans all over western NY State.

• [Aside:  By missing that field goal, Norwood and the Bills created a record that cannot ever be broken – – although it may be equaled.  The eventual one-point margin of victory by the Giants in the game is the smallest possible margin of victory in a Super Bowl game because the final result cannot be that the game ends in a tie.]

And then there was the Bills/Chiefs playoff game last night.  With the Chiefs leading 27-24, the Bills set up to try a 44-yard field goal by Tyler Bass with less than two minutes left on the clock.  And the instant the ball left Bass’ foot, it started veering to the right and it too missed with plenty of distance, but it too was “Wide right…”  The only thing missing – – other than the field goal try itself of course – – was Al Michaels on the call.

Finally, since today has been all about despair, I’ll close with the definition of that word from the Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Despair:  An utter loss of hope; a feeling of uselessness.  Often brought about through contact with a greeter at Walmart.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Nelson Mandela said:

“If there is anything that would kill me, it is to wake up in the morning not knowing what to do.”

I have never had to confront that situation – – particularly on Fridays when I wake up knowing exactly what I am to do.  I need to compile a Football Friday.  And to get things rolling today, let me review last week’s ‘Betting Bundle”.

 

• College  =  0-0-0     Final Season total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  5-1-0      Season  =  26-27-0
• Money Line Parlays  1-1  Profit  = $93     Season  =  11-17   Profit  = $8

 

College Football Commentary:

 

There are no games or practices happening these days so reporting on college football has to rely on other events for content.  Let me give you a capsule summary of what is going on in three of the main sources of “news” related to college football:

1. Jim Harbaugh is interviewing for jobs outside of Ann Arbor and simultaneously negotiating with the University of Michigan for a contract extension there.  There are lots of moving parts here; but in the end, these events will likely produce more entropy than anything else.
2. Deion Sanders has gone silent for a couple of weeks.  When next he surfaces, he will need to make up for his public absence by saying something abjectly outrageous.
3. Some players have chosen to declare for the NFL Draft and other players have chosen to return to the college game next year – – as it has been in the past and as it shall be in the future.

There is one piece of interesting news related to small school college football.  Northwestern Oklahoma State is a Division II school in Alva, OK.  Yesterday, the head coach there – – Ronnie Jones – – announced that he has hired a new defensive coordinator.  That new addition to the football staff there is:

• Jerry Glanville.

Glanville is 82 years old and has been a head coach in the NFL, and at the Division 1-A college level.  Defense has always been his “specialty” along with his quirky habit of leaving tickets to games for Elvis at Will Call.  One of Glanville’s famous quotes was:

“I haven’t heard from Elvis since his daughter married Michael Jackson.  I think it killed him.”

 

NFL Commentary

 

Giants’ defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale, and Giants’ head coach, Brian Daboll are no longer colleagues.  There had been reports more than a month ago that the two men were not getting along; Daboll denied and dismissed those reports around Thanksgiving, but it now appears that there was plenty of truth in them.  In the last week, the NY Post reported that Martindale and Daboll had a “heated argument” and that Martindale “cursed out” Daboll as he stormed out of the Giants’ facility.  Interestingly, Martindale’s contract with the Giants has another year to go so there would appear to be a need for either rapprochement or legal intervention regarding contract details.

Last weekend, I was happy to hear Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge again as the voices for the Texans/Browns playoff game.  The last half hour or so of that telecast could not have been easy for those gentlemen; there was no mystery about the outcome.  And I think they did a very good job under less than riveting circumstances.

Last week, I said there was an irony in the fact that the Browns and the Texans would meet in the playoffs and that Deshaun Watson would not be the QB for either team.  Add to that the tidbit that Baker Mayfield – – run out of Cleveland by an owner who traded away a bunch of assets to acquire Watson from the Texans – – is now going on to the second round of the playoffs while the Browns are going on Caribbean cruises with their families.  Redemption stories like that one are usually found in Hollywood scripts…

This entire season has been one of redemption for Mayfield.  There was not a buzzing market for his services in the last offseason; he took the Bucs’ job on a 1-year deal at $4M with lots of incentives. It appears that he has already earned more than $2M in incentives with more possibly coming if the Bucs win this weekend.  In any event, there should be a lot more interest in his services this off-season than there was last year.  So, let’s pretend that you are an NFL GM, and your team is not one of the teams with a franchise QB.

• Where might Baker Mayfield fit into your vision for your team?

And while we are at it, add one other veteran QB to this thought experiment.

• Where might Joe Flacco fit into your vision for your team?

The only team I think that cannot even consider either Mayfield or Flacco for 2024 is the Cleveland Browns.  If Deshaun Watson is to be the starter there and if Deshaun Watson has a couple of bad games, it might be very disruptive having either Mayfield or Flacco in the locker room given their recent history with the Browns.  But you never know what jimmy Haslam will do next…

Last weekend we heard many, many times about the trade between the Lions and the Rams involving Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.  Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl Championship; Goff has led the Lions to their first division championship in 30 years and is one game removed from the NFC Championship Game.  But there was more to that trade, and I think I have tracked down the other draft choices accurately; in addition to the QB swap, the Lions got three early round draft picks that produced Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams.  I would say that trade helped both teams.

Here is an interesting stat I ran across:

• These are the first NFL playoffs since 1998 where there is no one named Manning or Brady as a QB on any roster.

Let me review the wildcard round games from last weekend.  There were lots of blowout games last week; only one game out of six was inside two scores.

Texans 45  Browns 14:  Even without two Pick Sixes by the Texans on two consecutive possessions by the Browns, this game was not in doubt.  The stats say it should have been closer, but watching the game never gave me the impression that the Browns were the better team on the field.  Here is a key stat from this game:

• Texans:  44 offensive plays, 8,1 yards per offensive play
• Browns:  70 offensive plays, 4.6 yards per offensive play

There was a sub headline on Sunday morning at CBSSports.com which said that CJ Stroud “added to his legacy” in this game.  Let’s not get too far ahead of reality here; CJ Stroud is in the process of building his reputation; anything resembling “his legacy” appears to be at least a decade into the future.

I pointed out last week that the Browns’ defense was not the same on the road as it was at home giving up 29.6 points per game on the road as opposed to 13.1 points per game at home.  That trend was carried on even accounting for the 14 points the Texans got on those two Pick Sixes.

Chiefs 26  Dolphins 7:   The stat sheet suggests that this game should have had a bigger margin.  Consider:

• Chiefs’ Time of Possession = 34:05  Dolphins’ Time of Possession = 25:55
• Chiefs on Third Down = 6 of 15   Dolphins on Third Down = 1 of 12
• Chiefs’ First Downs = 25   Dolphins’ First Downs = 13

The Dolphins’ only score was a 53-yard pass to Tyreek Hill with 14 minutes left in the second quarter.  At that point there were 44 minutes left in the game; here are the Dolphins’ possessions from that point on:

• 6 plays – – 21 yards – – 3:05 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 3 plays – – minus-10 yards – – 1:19 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – 17 yards – – 0:18 Time of Possession – – Halftime
• 3 plays – – 6 yards – – 1:39 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 9 yards – – 4:42 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 10 plays – – 53 yards – – 4:44 time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 12 plays – – 27 yards – — 1:36 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 4 plays – – 28 yards – – 1:08 time of Possession – – END OF GAME

So, in 44 minutes of playoff football, the Dolphins ran 47 plays gaining only 151 yards and they punted 3 times and turned the ball over on downs another 3 times.

The Dolphins’ accomplishments this year may have been overrated.  Against winning teams, the Dolphins were 1-5 in the regular season.  The high-powered Dolphins’ offense averaged 16.1 points per game against teams that made the playoffs and 35.6points per game against non-playoff teams.

Packers 48  Cowboys 32:  So much for the idea that 7^th seeds cannot beat 2^nd seeds …   If the Dolphins were shown to be a mirage (see above), then the Cowboys were exposed as a fraud.  Do not be fooled; this game was not nearly as close as a 16-point differential would lead you to believe; at one point in the 4^th quarter, the Packers led 48-16.  The Packers led 27-0 at the half and had the game on cruise control for the remainder.  For their first 6 possessions, the Packers scored 5 TDs and punted once.  Oh, and in that same stretch of the game they had a “Pick-Six”.  The Cowboys’ offensive stats this year were impressive, and they were wholly misleading:

• Cowboys led the league in scoring with 509 points – – but lots of those points came against the Giants (89 points) and the Commanders (83 points).
• Cowboys’ point differential of 194 points was second in the NFL but 135 of those “excess” points came against the Giants and the Commanders.
• Those stats are there and will remain there – – AND – – they are meaningless.

Dan Quinn, the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys was considered to be a “hot prospect” for the head coach openings this year.  He did himself no favors with the way his unit performed on the “big stage”.  On a day when the Cowboys’ offense generated over 500 yards on offense and converted 10 of 16 third-down tries, the Cowboys’ defense was a complete no-show for four quarters.  On the TD pass to Luke Musgrave at the end of the third quarter, there was no Cowboys’ defender in the same area code as the receiver.

Consider this:

• Packers’ Offensive Plays = 54 producing 41 points (Packers’ defense produced 7 points)
• Cowboys’ Offensive Plays = 89 producing 32 points

.  After the game, Mike McCarthy said the team was not ready to play on Sunday.  Serious question here:

• How can professional football players not be ready to play in a playoff game?

Packers’ RB, Aaron Jones was surely ready for the game.  He carried the ball 21 times for 118 yards and 3 TDs.  Just for fun, he also caught a pass for another 13 yards in the game.

Cowboys’ fans demonstrated what front-runners they are – – mirroring their favorite team – – by abandoning the stadium for about all of the fourth quarter here.  Late in the game, there were more “green and gold” colors in the crowd shots than there were “blue and silver”.

Lions 24  Rams 23:  If you are a fan or either team, you are either ecstatic (Lions’ fan) or you are disconsolate/tormented (Rams’ fan).  As a football fan, this was a great game for me because it was close from start to finish.  Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown put on a show here:

• Nacua:  9 receptions for 181 yards and 1 TD
• St. Brown:  7 receptions for 110 yards and 0 TDs

Bills 31  Steelers 17:  Josh Allen was Superman in this game; he threw for 3 TDs and rambled 52 yards on a broken play for another TD.  With RB, James Cook adding 85 yards from scrimmage and the Steelers’ defense producing no turnovers, the outcome was never seriously in doubt despite the stat sheet appearing to be balanced:

• Bills’ Total Offense = 368 yards   Steelers’ Total Offense = 324 yards
• Bills’ 3^rd Down Conversions = 5 of 12   Steelers’ 3^rd Down Conversions = 5 of 11
• Bills’ Offensive Plays = 66   Steelers’ Offensive Plays = 63

The Bills and Eagles played on November 26^th and the Bills lost that game in OT on a TD scamper by Jalen Hurts.  That loss left the Bills with a 6-6 record and raised the Eagles’ record to 10-1.  However, since that game the fortunes of the two teams have gone off on different vectors.  The Bills won their last 5 games in a row to make the playoffs and win their division; the Eagles lost 5 of their last 6 games, limped into the playoffs and made only a cameo appearance there due to this next result from last week.

Bucs 32  Eagles 9:  The collapse of the Eagles’ 2023/24 season was completed last Monday night.  The Eagles only ran the ball 15 times in the game and gained all of 42 yards; when these teams met in the regular season, the Eagles ran the ball for 200+ yards.  If that sort of game planning makes sense to you, I bow to your superior insights.  The Eagles’ secondary made Baker Mayfield look like the second coming of John Unitas; here is Mayfield’s stat line:

• 22 of 36 for 337 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs

But wait, there’s more …  The Eagles were 0 for 9 on 3^rd Down Conversions and 0 for 2 on 4^th Down Conversions.  It is a tossup in my mind which NFC team was the bigger embarrassment in last week’s playoff games – – the Eagles or the Cowboys.  Take your pick…

The Packers showing against the Cowboys has led some commentators to conclude that Jordan Love is the next Packers’ Hall of Fame QB in the footsteps of Brett Favre and then Aaron Rodgers.  I think that is a bit premature even as I acknowledge that Jordan Love has been nothing short of outstanding from the first week in November until now.  The following observation has no intent behind it regarding a shot at Jordan Love.  Nevertheless, in the midst of all the gushing enthusiasm over Jordan Loves’s performance recently, please keep this in mind:

• The Packers had Brett Favre as their QB for 17 seasons from 1992 through 2007.
• The Packers had Aaron Rodgers as their QB for full-time QB for 15 seasons from 2008 through 2022.
• Both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers deserve to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
• And yet, in that three-decade period with Hall of Fame leadership, the Packers took down only 2 – – as in TWO – – Super Bowl trophies.

I believe that jargon of the day calls for me to suggest to Packers’ fanboys to

• “Slow your roll …”

 

 

This Week’s Games:

 

This is the point in the NFL schedule where my rooting interest in outcomes of the games becomes more focused.  This is purely a personal opinion; I do not expect others to come at these games in a similar fashion.

From this vantage point in the season, I can assess the possible pairings for the Super Bowl game in 3 weeks.  For me, watching the Super Bowl is not about witnessing the football version of “The Little Engine That Could” or seeing some plucky group of underdogs/overachievers try for “the ultimate prize.  What I want to see is the two best teams possible meet in that game.  I say “two best teams possible” because it has happened that my perception of the “two best teams overall” have been in the same conference so they could not both take part in the Super Bowl.

So, notwithstanding any selections I am about to make against the spread or involving the Total Line, here are my “rooting preferences” for this week’s games:

1. Ravens over Texans
2. Niners over Packers
3. Lions over Bucs
4. Bills over Chiefs

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Texans at Ravens – 10 (43.5) :  The Texans have been nothing short of amazing this year after recording a 3-13-1 record a year ago.  Back in August/September, you could have gotten 200-to-1 odds on the Texans making it to the Super Bowl let alone winning it.  And here they are with that possibility still alive and well.  If CJ Stroud is not named the Offensive Rookie of the Year, he should demand a recount.  Last week, the Texans sliced and diced the normally stingy Browns’ defense; this week they take on the Ravens’ defense which allowed the fewest points of any team in the league in 2023 (16.5 points per game).  I think there are two key elements in this game:

1. Can the Texans protect CJ Stroud and avoid negative plays?
2. Can the Texans pressure Lamar Jackson and keep the Ravens’ passing game under a bit of control?

Lamar Jackson has been less-than-dominant in previous playoff games; his record has been 1-3 in the post-season.  And a major part of why he has been less than successful in the playoffs is that he has turned the ball over 7 times in playoff games.  The Ravens need to hope that does not happen this weekend.

Here is a trend to consider:

• The Texans have been underdogs in 8 games that Stroud has started this year.
• The Texans are 6-2 against the spread in those 8 underdog games”.
• Stroud is starting here, and the Texans are underdogs …

I like the Texans plus the points here and I like this game to go OVER; put those selections in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat 8 :15 PM ET) Packers at Niners – 9.5 (50):  Eight teams continue their seasons into this weekend; seven of the eight are playing QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft in whatever year those QBs were eligible.  The only exception is Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, taken with the final draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.  The Niners “philosophy” is to get a lead and then have their pass rushers torment the opposing QB.  The Packers faced a team with the same “philosophy” last week; that is how the Cowboys like to play.  So, what the Packers did was to get a lead by scoring a TD with a dominant opening drive that went 75 yards in 8 minutes.  If the Packers can replicate that sort of early success here, we will get to see if Brock Purdy can win from behind instead of always winning from the front.  The Niners’ offense this year has been solid; they average 28.9 points per game; so, getting a lead on the Niners may be easier said than done.  The Packers were slightly more than a full TD underdog last week against the Cowboys and won the game outright; might they do anything similar this week?  I do not have a strong feeling about the outcome of this game; I can talk myself into just about any outcome but in all of my ruminations, I like this game to OVER.  Put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 3:00 PM ET) Bucs at Lions – 6.5 (48.5):  This is the only game this weekend where the line has moved significantly.  The spread here opened at 4.5 points and has been hanging around at this level for the last couple of days.  I don’t have any confidence in trying to predict how the Bucs’ offense will play in this game.  Last week they were efficient and effective in beating the Eagles; two weeks ago, in a game they had to win to make the playoffs, the Bucs scored 9 points against the Panthers.  The Lions beat the Bucs in the regular season; if you think that is the key to this game, just remember that the Eagles also beat the Bucs in the regular season and the Eagles are not the ones advancing to this round of the playoffs.  I think this game will be exciting; both teams should be able to produce so-called “chunk plays”.  I think the line is fat; so, give me the Bucs plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 6:30 PM ET) Chiefs at Bills – 2.5 (45):  From a viewing standpoint, this has to be the Game of the Week simply because it will be Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes.  Mahomes will be starting in his 16^th playoff game, and this is his first road game in that sequence – – not counting of course neutral sites for Super Bowl games.  He leads the team to the field in their 6^th consecutive shot at the AFC Championship.  These teams met in the regular season and the game came down to Kaderius Toney lining up offsides and negating a TD on a trick play.  Both teams will have their excellent QBs facing excellent defenses on the other side of the ball.  The Chiefs’ undoing this year has been the ability of their WRs to catch passes that hit them in the hands.  Here is an interesting betting stat; make of it what you will:

• The Chiefs have been underdogs only 9 times with Patrick Mahomes at QB.
• The Chiefs are 8-1 against the spread in those 9 games.
• The only loss against the spread was when the Bills won and covered in 2022.

The Bills are banged up; five defenders did not practice this week and three more defenders were “limited” in practice.  The Chiefs have been their own worst enemy in lots of situations this season.  The weather forecast for Buffalo on Sunday calls for temperatures in the low 20s and only a slight chance of precipitation; hopefully Mother Nature will abide by that forecast.  No pick in this game; I just want to sit back and enjoy.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

1. Texans +10 against Ravens
2. Texans/Ravens OVER 43.5
3. Packers/Niners OVER 50
4. Bucs +6.5 against Lions

            No Money Line parlays this week; none of the odds are particularly appealing.

Finally, let me close today with these words from former Alabama coach, Nick Saban:

“If you want to make everyone happy, don’t be a leader.  Sell ice cream.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There has been a lot of reporting on “Long-COVID”.  According to the CDC:

“Long COVID is broadly defined as signs, symptoms, and conditions that continue or develop after acute COVID-19 infection. “

No one should come here for medical information but there may be a part of the sports world that is suffering from the economic consequences of “Long-COVID”.   Take yourself b ack to 2020 when the pandemic was running rampant in the US and many areas of the country were in “lockdown mode”; people were encouraged to stay at home and many public institutions simply closed down.  One such public institution that had to close was the Baseball Hall of Fame; it generated next to no revenue for 2020 and a significantly diminished amount in 2021.  Unfortunately, it seems that in our post-COVID that revenues for the Hall of Fame have not returned to previous levels

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a non-profit entity which means that its tax filings are publicly available.  According to a report at Sportico.com, here are some data from filings with the IRS:

• Prior to COVID, revenues were in the range of $13-14M per year
• In 2021, revenue was $9.4M
• In 2022, revenue was $2.4M

The 2021 revenue figure is inflated by money the Hall of Fame received from government funds aimed at keeping the economy afloat and from what are characterized as “generous donations” from private sources.  Those government funds are no longer applicable, and the private donations have seemingly returned to pre-COVID levels leaving the Hall of Fame in some financial straits.

Moreover, there is an ominous sign out there related to 2023.  When Mariano Rivera was inducted into the Hall of Fame in the summer of 2019 – – before anyone ever heard of COVID – – the attendance for that weekend ceremony was approximately 55,000 visitors.  When Scott Rolen and Fred McGriff were inducted in the summer of 2023, the attendance was about 10,000 folks.  This report at Sportico.com has more data and more information about the Hall of Fame’s financials.  Perhaps the underlying problem is a heretofore unrecognized economic dimension to “Long-COVID”?

Moving on …  The state of college athletics in the “revenue sports” is chaos.  The combination of the transfer portal with the explosion of money available for athletes via Name Image and Likeness rights (NIL) has produced significant changes in the athletic landscape – – and not all of those changes have been for the good.  The creation of NIL Collectives – – entities that allow college athletic boosters to pool their monies to use in the recruitment of players is one of those “not-purely-positive changes”.  However, their existence raises a question in my mind that I do not have an answer for.

Imagine an NIL Collective that seeks to advance the sporting fortunes for good old Whatsamatta U.  The folks who run the collective – in consultation with the head coach of course even though such consultations may not be recorded anywhere – go out and seek to find a top-shelf QB and a half dozen studs to play on the offensive and defensive lines because that seems to be all that the team needs to contend for next year’s CFP.  After a careful national search for such players and after negotiations, that NIL Collective secures the services of exactly what they and the coach believe are the necessary ingredients for gridiron success next season.

So … the athletes are not necessarily students at the college even if they take real courses and get real grades in those courses for work that they do on their own.  They are where they are doing what they do because the NIL Collective has paid them for those services.  And if that is even remotely the case, then why shouldn’t those athletes be considered employees of the NIL Collective such that the Collective must pay appropriate employment related taxes?

One last “business item” today …  There are reports that execs at Disney – – the owner of ESPN – – and the NFL are in negotiations that might give the NFL an equity stake in the Worldwide Leader in Sports.  According to those reports, ESPN would take over some if not all of the NFL’s media properties such as the NFL Network and Red Zone TV.  Such a transfer of media properties to ESPN makes a lot of sense from the perspective that it puts media-savvy folks in charge of those NFL properties potentially giving them more room to grow.

However, the idea that the NFL would have some equity stake in ESPN could prove a bit awkward when it comes time to negotiate the next media rights deals for NFL games.  The other networks may sense that all is not on the up-and-up when one of the competing bids comes from an entity partially owned by the seller of the media rights.  And, when the NFL sits down to negotiate directly with ESPN, it would be negotiating with itself.  Seems awkward to me…

Finally, here is an entry in The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Business, Big: An organization dedicated to grinding dreams into the dirt.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, people in the US celebrated the birthday of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.  and used that day to contemplate a better world for tomorrow.  Today is the birthday of another great American – – Benjamin Franklin.  To honor Benjamin Franklin, if anyone annoys you today, tell that person to:

• Go fly a kite!

I have seen several “Mock Drafts” and various reporting that indicates the possibility of QBs being taken in the overall #1, #2 and #3 slots this April.  If that were to happen, it would be the 25^th anniversary of the only time I can recall that such a sequence of draft picks took place.  And looking back at that previous happenstance might be a cautionary tale for NFL GMs this time around.

Let’s use Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine and set the date for 1999.  Based on the standings for the 1998 regular season, the Eagles should have had the overall #1 pick via tiebreakers; the Eagles were 3-13 in 1998.  However, that was the year that the NFL added “Cleveland Browns 2.0” to the league and part of the deal for that new franchise was that it would get the overall #1 pick in the draft in its first year of existence.  So, the top three draft slots in April 1999 went to:

1. “Cleveland Browns 2.0”
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Cincinnati Bengals

So, what did those teams do with their coveted high picks and how did it all turn out?

• Browns took Tim Couch (Kentucky).  He played in the NFL for 5 seasons and had an unremarkable career.
• Eagles took Donovan McNabb (Syracuse).  He played in the league for 13 seasons and made the Pro Bowl 6 times.  He was the QB for an Eagles’ team that made it to the Super Bowl but lost that game.  His was not a “Hall of Fame career” but the pick turned out to be quite productive.
• Bengals took Akili Smith (Oregon):  He appeared in 22 games over a 4 year career; in those 22 games he threw 5 TDs and 13 INTs.  Basically, that pick was a wasted asset.

I am not saying that the various QBs who may be selected at the top of this year’s NFL Draft will turn out to be analogous to the ones from 25 years ago, but in the euphoria that will accompany the high picks this year, perhaps fans and GMs should take a moment to exhale.

And since I am on the subject of QBs taken in the first round of the Draft, let me jump ahead in time to look at some more recent selections from the 2021 NFL Draft…

Trevor Lawrence was the overall #1 pick in 2021; he has been in the league for 3 years.  In a sense, his first year was “wasted” in that the Jaguars as a team were experiencing the futility of Urban Meyer’s mercifully brief NFL coaching career.  Lawrence made the Pro Bowl and led the Jags to a winning record and even a playoff win in his second year – – and then he may have regressed in 2023.  I say he “may have regressed” because it is not clear to me that he was completely healthy for the last month of the 2023 season but next year will be his fourth year on his “rookie contract” and the Jags will have an option for a fifth year.  I have no doubt that the team will exercise that option, but if his performance is as it was in 2023, I wonder what might be Trevor Lawrence’s contractual situation at the end of the 2025 season.

Mac Jones went in the middle of the first round of the same draft class that produced Trevor Lawrence.  In his rookie year, Jones made the Pro Bowl and led the Pats to a 10-7 record starting all 17 games in the regular season.  In year two, he only started 14 games and the Pats were 6-8 in those games; this year he started 11 games; the Pats were 2-9 in those games, and he was ultimately replaced by Bailey Zappe.  We can debate from not until next year the cause(s) of that regression in performance, but the fact of the regression is axiomatic.  Like Lawrence, Mac Jones will be in his fourth year on his “rookie contract” in 2024.  I am not sure that the Pats will exercise their fifth year option based on Jones’ career arc to date.

Justin Fields was another product of the 2021 NFL Draft as a first-round QB selection.  He has generated lots of content and commentary over his three years in the NFL; some folks say he is a bust; others think he may be the best QB the Bears have had since Sid Luckman in the 1940s.  As is usually the case, both extremes on that spectrum are just that – – extremes.  Fields is not a bust; and at the same time, Fields does not project to be a Hall of Fame QB as was Luckman.  We will learn in the coming months what various “football people” think about Justin Fields.  The Bears own the overall #1 pick in this year’s draft so:

• If the Bears are convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they could use that #1 pick to “add pieces around” Fields and go forward – – or the Bears could trade that pick for multiple assets in the future.
• If the Bears are not convinced that he is their long-term answer at QB, they can seek to trade Fields to another team.  And at that point, we might learn what assessment other teams have made about Justin Fields by assessing the trade offers that they put in front of the Bears’ braintrust.

The lesson to be learned from the NFL Draft 25 years ago and the one from 3 years ago is simple:

• Scouting college football players and projecting their performance in the NFL is not a science.

Finally, consider these definitions from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Science:  The study and investigation of phenomena based on rigorous study and experiment, conducted solely for the purpose of pissing off those who think God did it all.”

And …

“Scientist:  A person in a lab coat who appears at the beginning of science fiction films to explain how the collision of certain isotopes can result in a half-man-half-lemur.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

On January 11^th ESPN.com reported that the Pats and Bill Belichick had mutually agreed to part company.  On January 14^th, ESPN,com reported that the Pats had hired Jerod Mayo as their new head coach.  Virtually everything I have read or heard about that decision by Pats’ owner, Robert Kraft, has been positive, but there was a “loose end” to this story that seemed out of place:

• How did the Patriots find another minority coaching candidate to interview – – thereby conforming to the “Rooney Rule” in 3 days and why was there no reporting on such an interview?
• Does the fact that Jerod Mayo is a Black coach mean that a team deciding to hire a minority candidate need not interview a second minority candidate?

I am not trying to play “jailhouse lawyer” here; it just seemed odd that so many things fell into place so quickly particularly since former Pats’ assistant coach Brian Flores is suing the NFL and several specific teams in the NFL alleging racial discrimination and retaliation against him.  He is also trying to turn his lawsuit into a class action suit on behalf of all minority coaching candidates in the league.

A subsequent report at Yahoo sports by Michael McCann offered clarification:

“… Mayo’s hiring as Belichick’s successor was reportedly part of his most recent employment contract with the Patriots. The inclusion of that clause, as described by media reports, followed other teams seeking to interview him as a head coach. The NFL was aware of this clause and comfortable with it. The Patriots are therefore in compliance with the [Rooney] rule, a workplace policy designed to diversify coaching and front offices.”

[Aside: Michael McCann is an attorney and the Director of the Sports and Entertainment Law Institute at the University of New Hampshire Law School.  He also writes for Yahoo, Sports Illustrated and Sportico; he is a great source of information and clarification.]

Frankly, I am very happy to learn that the implementation of the “Rooney Rule” in the case favored substance over form.  The “Rule” is only in place as a mechanism to give minority candidates access to the hiring process and indeed it can be easily circumvented by what Brian Flores calls “sham and performative interviews” by team owners who never had any intention of hiring the minority candidate called in for an interview.  By having it a matter of Mayo’s current contract of employment, this hiring was in effect a promotion that was decided upon before there was a head coaching vacancy.  And since Mayo’s hiring completes the intent of the “Rooney Rule” there is no reason for the Pats to look any further.  Outside the world of sports, this process is called “Succession Planning’, and it is done in myriad other places.

Jerod Mayo’s success or failure as the head coach of the Pats obviously depends on lots of things that will become apparent over the next couple of seasons, but I think first and foremost on that list of things is finding a QB for the team.  Mac Jones was less competent this year than he was as a rookie two seasons ago and Bailey Zappe certainly did not “burst onto the scene” in any positive way…

And speaking of NFL owners making coaching decisions, readers here must realize by now that I usually do not pin blame for unsuccessful seasons on head coaches alone.  In many cases, I suspect that a losing coach has been saddled with an inferior roster and that the coach may only be a minor part of the lack of success.  There is an ongoing situation, however, that gives me pause:

• I am confused and conflicted about the competency of Nick Sirianni as the head coach of the Eagles in Philly.

Here is the source of the confusion and conflict:

1. Twelve months ago, Sirianni and his Eagles’ team were solidly on their way to the Super Bowl appearance and an overall 16-4 record.
2. Today, that same team/franchise is in disarray – – to be polite – – and was just eviscerated in a wildcard playoff game by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

It is not that the Eagles lost the game last night; it is how they have played ever since Thanksgiving Weekend when they beat the Bills in OT.  Since then, the Eagles have lost 6 of 7 games and have lost 4 of those games badly.  I cannot pretend to know what is going on within the team; but to an outside observer, the Eagles did not play with anything like the energy or urgency they showed just a year ago.

Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet:

“Something is rotten in the State of Denmark …”

I suggest that something is rotten within the Philadelphia Eagles’ organization.  I don’t know what that “something” is, but I am convinced of the  existence of a “rotting substance” by the foul odor it has produced.

Finally, perhaps my reaction to the Eagles’ current situation is tied up in an observation by Henry David Thoreau:

“There is no odor so bad as that which arises from goodness tainted.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In his tragedy, Macbeth, William Shakespeare wrote:

“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in creeps in this petty pace from day to day …”

Forget the pettiness of the pace; after seven “tomorrows”, it is once again time to produce a Football Friday and so – as is the custom in these parts – I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  1-1-0   =>   Final Season Total  =  21-10-0
• NFL  =  1-3-0   =>   Season  =  21-26-0
• Parlays = 0-1  Loss = $100   =>  Season  =   10-16  Loss  =  $85

[Aside:  My NFL selections have been rancid at best since Thanksgiving.  Back then, my NFL selections in the “Betting Bundle” were 14-11-0.  Since Thanksgiving, my NFL selections have gone 7-15-0.  Yuck!]

Notwithstanding that trend over the last 6 weeks or so, I will be making a selection in each of the six games this weekend – – even if some of the selections are not much more than a coin-flip in my mind.  There have been books written and songs titled:

• Devil Take the Hindmost

Let that be the focus of what shows up today as the “Betting Bundle”.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Michigan won the CFP Championship Game handily; they did not do any sign stealing last Monday night; all they did was to run the ball down Washington’s throat for more than 300 yards on the ground.  I think the bigger story relates to the popularity of the CFP itself.

Go back to the Michigan/Alabama game on New Year’s Eve.  The TV audience for that game was reported to be 27.2 million people.  That audience is only drawn by NFL games or truly unique events.  The CFP Championship game had an audience of 25.2 million folks.  The important thing here is not just the size of the audience but the reason for the size of the audience.

First, American football is the most popular sport in the US and whatever claims to be second is far behind.  If you are a “football hater”, that is perfectly OK; but it cannot cloud your thinking to the point that you think something like tennis or baseball or golf is similarly popular.  It just is not so.

So, it would be easy to conclude that more than 25 million folks tuned into either or both of those games simply because it was football played at a high level of competence.  And maybe that simple explanation is all that is needed … but maybe there is something else at work here.  Consider:

• The CFP as configured today combines two elements – – high level college football PLUS scarcity.  There are only 3 games in the whole of the CFP.
• So, is either of those elements the primary reason for the large audiences or do they just work in harmony with one another?

That is an interesting question because starting next year, there will be 11 CFP games.  The “scarcity element” will have been significantly diluted; it will be interesting to see how large the first and second round games’ audiences are, and it will be interesting to see if in the semi-finals and final round the audiences remain in the mid-20 million range.

My prediction is that the first-round games and the second-round games will not get anywhere near the audience size we saw this year.  The important question for me is how the “Football Final Four” games draw.  If the matchup next year is between two of the “Football Bluebloods”, the audience will be huge; if one or two teams in the semi-finals are “Upstarts”, I think the audience will be significantly smaller.  We shall see…

I wrote yesterday about Nick Saban’s announced retirement.  With 24 hours to ruminate on that announcement, I would offer these comments:

1. I believe Nick Saban surpassed Bear Bryant in terms of “Alabama Football” – – and I never thought I would come to such a conclusion.
2. I believe Nick Saban’s coaching accomplishments can be considered the football-equivalent of John Wooden’s coaching accomplishments in basketball.
3. I believe he would make a fantastic studio analyst for college football if he wanted to stay connected to the game.  His press conferences show him as a natural behind a microphone.
4. I believe the coach who replaces Nick Saban will last less than 4 years at Alabama.

Here is something I fervently hope is not in play:

• Some legendary coaches retired and then died soon after retirement.  Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno, Vince Lombardi and Pat Summitt are examples of top-shelf coaches who did not enjoy a long-term retirement.
• I would prefer not to add Nick Saban to that listing.

Michigan 34  Washington 13:  I mentioned above the dominance of the Michigan running game here.  In addition, let me present some other stats from the game to explain why – even though the score was still close in the second half – I felt as if the outcome was decided by the end of the second quarter:

• Michigan:  47 offensive plays  – –  7.8 yards per play
• Washington:  71 plays  – –  4.2 yards per play

And, here are the results of the Huskies’ possessions in the second half of the game:

• 1 play – – 0 yards – – 0:05 Time of Possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 7 plays – – 47 yards – – 2:57 Time of Possession – – FIELD GOAL
• 5 plays – – 11 yards – – 1:47 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 5 plays – – 18 yards – – 2:10 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 1 yard – – 2:08 Time of Possession – – PUNT
• 6 plays – – 45 yards – – 2:40 Time of possession – – INTERCEPTION
• 8 plays – – 14 yards – – 1:48 Time of Possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the second half of the game here is the summary of the Washington offensive output:

• 35 plays – – 136 yards – – 13:35 Time of Possession
• 1 Field Goal, 3 Punts, 2 Interceptions and 1 Turnover on Downs.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Let me go back to the topic of TV audience size for a moment here to put some perspective on the NFL’s popularity.  The good folks at Nielsen have been estimating TV audience sizes since I was a kid just a mankind exited the Bronze Age.  I have no idea how they do it, but lots of folks give significant credence to their numbers.  So, Neilsen published the list of the 100 most watched TV programs for the calendar year 2023.  Take a deep breath as you check out these numbers:

• 93 of the Top-100 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.
• 24 of the Top-25 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games [Aside:  That “other program” in the Top-25 was the Michigan/Alabama game mentioned above.]
• 47 of the Top-50 TV programs in terms of audience size were NFL games.  The “other programs” in the Top 50 list were the Michigan/Alabama game, the State of the Union Address and Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

As a punctuation mark here, the importance of things like Neilsen ratings and audience size are captured in these two quotations:

“The biases the media has are much bigger than conservative or liberal.  They’re about getting ratings, about making money, about doing stories that are easy to cover.”  Senator Al Franken (D-MN)

And …

“The democratic system is challenged by the failure in television because our evening news programs have gone for an attempt to entertain as much as to inform in the desperate fight for ratings.”  Walter Cronkite

Last week, the Browns had a playoff slot locked in; so, they wisely chose to give 38-year-old Joe Flacco a week off.  That meant the Browns started Jeff Driskell at QB and he was the 5^th starting QB for the Browns in the 2023 regular season:

1. Deshaun Watson
2. PJ Walker
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
4. Joe Flacco
5. Jeff Driskell

Even with that Keystone Kops situation at QB, the Browns made the playoffs with the best record of any of the wildcard teams in the AFC.  I doubt that anything like that has happened in the past.

Speaking of starting QBs, there will be 12 players filling that role this weekend and 5 of the 12 will have come from the Big-12 conference.  So, does that make the Big-12 the “Cradle of Playoff QBs”?  If you think I have counted incorrectly, here is my list:

1. Jalen Hurts – – Oklahoma
2. Patrick Mahomes – – Texas Tech
3. Baker Mayfield – – Oklahoma
4. Brock Purdy – – Iowa St.
5. Mason Rudolph – – Oklahoma St.

In the last couple of days, we have seen Mike Vrabel, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick lose their jobs.  It is not commonplace to see coaches in playoff games whose jobs might be “in the balance” but if Vrabel, Carroll and Belichick were “eighty-sixed” recently, we may be going through a Bizarro World space warp.  So, just in case we are going though such a space warp let me throw some stuff on the wall to see if any of it sticks:

• Cowboys:  IF the Cowboys get blown out by the Packers – – say by 3 TDs or more – – the notoriously impatient and hair-triggered owner of the Cowboys might do something rash.  5% chance of this happening…
• Chiefs:  There are Internet rumors that Andy Reid may hang it up after this year is done.  5% chance of this happening.
• Steelers:  There are even louder Internet rumors that Mike Tomlin might just be “stepping away” from his days in Pittsburgh.
• Eagles:  The team has collapsed from a 10-1 start finding ways to lose five of their last six games.  Complete harmony is not in existence in the locker room and on the coaching staff.  The team is virtually certain to be looking to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinators – – both of whom were hired by Nick Sirianni just last year.  If the Eagles lose big to the Bucs, there is a good chance that Sirianni will join the Eagles’ coordinators out there looking for jobs.

Since so many of last week’s games were moot, I am not going to go through a comment on each game.  Rather this week, I would prefer to take a brief look at some of the storylines for this week’s first round playoff matchups:

• Browns/Texans:  The irony here is that these two teams meet in the AFC playoffs and Deshaun Watson will not be the QB for either team.
• Dolphins/Chiefs:  Tyreek Hill returns to Arrowhead Stadium where he did lots of damage for the Chiefs; now he seeks to inflict damage on the Chiefs.
• Steelers/Bills:  Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin, and Bills’ coach, Sean McDermott, were teammates in college at William and Mary.
• Packers/Cowboys:  Cowboys’ coach, Mike McCarthy won a Super Bowl as the coach of the Packers.
• Rams/Lions:  Current Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford was traded for current Lions’ QB, Jared Goff.  Both were overall #1 picks in the NFL Draft in their year.
• Eagles/Bucs:  This will be the 6^th playoff meeting between these two teams.  The Eagles were the Bucs’ opponent in the Bucs’ first-ever playoff appearance in 1979.  In college, Eagles’ QB, Jalen Hurts, succeeded Bucs’ QB, Baker Mayfield, as the QB for the Oklahoma Sooners.

In NFL playoff games, experienced QBs have an edge on QBs in their first-ever playoff games.  I read a stat that said since the 2002 playoffs “Experienced QBs” lead “First time QBs” 36-17.  Of the six games this week, that sort of confrontation will happen four times:

1. Texans’ CJ Stroud versus Browns’ Joe Flacco
2. Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa versus Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes
3. Steelers’ Mason Rudolph versus Bills’ Josh Allen
4. Packers’ Jordan Love versus Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.

The Dolphins/Chiefs game will only be available on Peacock – – the streaming platform.  If you do not have Peacock, think carefully about signing up for it to see this game.  If streaming services see large sign-ups when they bid for individual games, that means they can offer top dollar to the NFL for that programming and the NFL is not one to turn down top-dollar.  The potential endgame here is that the NFL could put all of the playoffs on streaming services because those services will bid more for the product.  So, think about the long-term as well as the immediate term.  I do not have Peacock; I have no interest in signing up for Peacock; I will have to miss a live telecast of this game.

Let the games begin …

 

Super Wildcard Weekend Games:

 

(Sat 4:30 PM ET) Browns – 2 at Texans (44.5):  These teams played each other on Christmas Eve in Houston and the Browns prevailed then by a score of 36-22.  CJ Stroud did not play in that game for the Texans; Davis Mills was the QB then as Stroud was in concussion protocol.  Amari Cooper had a monster game that day with 11 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs.  I suspect that Messr. Cooper has been a focal point for the defensive unit and the defensive coaches during this week of preparation.  Here is a stat that I ran across that surprised me:

• The Browns’ defense is great at home but not on the road.  In road games this season the Browns’ defense ranks dead last in points per game given up (29.6 points per game.
• This game is in Houston…

I don’t know how he did it, but Joe Flacco turned 9 months of isolated workouts and weekends watching NFL games on TV into performing as one of the top QBs in the NFL.  If he has a “secret sauce” that facilitates this – – and it’s a legal substance – – he could market it for a fortune.  I love CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans for the long haul but for tomorrow, I like the Browns – – with the better defense – – and the Browns – – with the QB on a mystical roll – – to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

(Sat 8:15 PM ET) Dolphins at Chiefs – 4.5 (44.5):  These two teams faced each other in early November in Germany.  The Chiefs won that game 21-14 with the winning TD coming on a “Scoop and Score” by the Chiefs defense.  The Dolphins arrive at the kickoff having lost their last two games which knocked them out of the #2 seed and dropped them to the #6 seed.  The Weather forecast for this game calls for temperatures to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with gusting winds.  Perhaps, this is the latter day “Ice Bowl”?  The Chiefs have the better QB who is more experienced in playoff venues; the Chiefs have the better defense in this game.  The biggest unknowns are very simple:

• Can the Chiefs’ WRs get open? And …
• Can they catch the damned ball if Patrick Mahomes delivers it such that they get both hands on the ball?

I will believe the meteorologists here – – dangerous, I know – – and believe that really adverse weather conditions will keep the scoring down below what would be normal on a warn sunny day in October.  I’ll take the game to stay UNDER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

[Aside:  I make that selection fully realizing that the adverse weather could also result in a large number of turnovers with very short fields wherein the total score could easily be in the mid-60s.  Whatever …]

(Sun 1:00 PM ET) Steelers at Bills – 10 (35.5):  There have been tremendous line movements in this game.  The spread opened with the Bills as 7.5-point favorites which expanded quickly to this level.  Meanwhile the Total Line opened at 44.5 points and has dropped by 9 points during the week.  At one point this season, the bills were 6-6 and looked like roadkill; they then proceeded to win 5 games in a row to get to the playoffs as the #2 seed in the AFC.  Back in mid-December, the Steelers were similarly on the outside looking in for a playoff berth, but Mason Rudolph has led the team to 3 straight wins and the last playoff slot in the AFC.  If you like trends, consider this:

• Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 7 teams from each conference back in 2020, no 7^th seed has ever beaten a 2^nd seed.

Anyone who has been a reader here for any length of time and has been paying even a modicum of attention knows that I try to avoid any selections in NFL games with double-digit spreads. However, the mission this week is to make a pick in every game so here goes:

• I think the Bills have the better offense and the better QB here; I think both defenses are formidable; neither team will be disadvantaged by winter weather in the Northeast US; give me the Bills to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 4:30 PM ET) Packers at Cowboys – 7.5 (50):  Here is another case where a 7^th seed goes to play a 2^nd seed.  Let me add to the trend cited above:

• There have been 6 games involving 7^th seeds and 2^nd seeds.  The overall record is 6-0 for 2^nd seeds and the cumulative scores for those 6 games is 196-123.
• The average margin of victory for the 2^nd seeds is 12.2 points.

The Cowboys are far more formidable at home than they are on the road; they are undefeated (8-0) at home and only 4-5 on the road.  The Packers needed to win their last 3 games of the season to secure that final 7^th seed in the NFC playoffs, The Packers are playing with “house money”.  They might win the game outright by 2 TDs, or they might be blown out by 4 TDs; if you were to be able to read Packers’ QB Jordan Love’s mind, I doubt he has considered either or both of those possibilities.  This is a hunch only, but I’ll take the Packers with a full TD plus a hook; put that in the ”Betting Bundle”.

(Sun 8:15 PM ET) Rams at Lions – 3 (51.5):  Can Lions’ TE, Sam LaPorta play up to his normal level in this game?  He injured his knee last week against the Vikes.  More importantly, can the Lions’ defensive secondary break out of a terrible slump in this game.  Here are some numbers from the Lions’ last 3 games:

• Lions allowed 411 passing yards to Vikes in Minnesota yet won the game 30-24
• Lions allowed 345 passing yards to Cowboys in Dallas and lost 20-19
• Lions allowed 396 passing yards to Vikes in Detroit yet won the game 30-20.

If the Lions are going to advance, they will have to do better than they have been doing by a lot.  I love the Lions’ offense and I love the Lions’ “grit”, but that Lions’ secondary is ripe for the picking by Matthew Stafford throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  I think the wrong team is favored here; I’ll take the Rams plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon 8:15 PM ET) Eagles – 3 at Bucs (43.5):  The Bucs arrive here with a modest 9-8 record BUT the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games.  That stands as a mirror image to the Eagles’ record in their last 6 games where they have lost 5 of the 6.  The Eagles pass defense has been awful over the losing stretch and the Bucs have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for those defensive backs to deal with.  The Eagles’ offense has injuries to deal with:

• QB Jalen Hurts has a finger injury on his throwing hand.  He was ‘limited” in practice this week.
• WR AJ Brown hurt his knee last week and did not practice this week; he is listed as “questionable” and will be a “game-time decision”.
• WR Devonta Smith did not play last week but was a “full participant” in practice this week.

Having said all that, it is the Eagles’ defense that has collapsed over the last 6 games.  They have not stopped the run well; they have not been good on third down and the secondary has been torched.  While the Eagles are the more talented team from the top of the roster to the bottom, my sense is that this team is ready to fly apart at the seams.  Once again, I think the wrong team is favored so I’ll take the Bucs plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Browns – 2 over Texans
• Chiefs/Dolphins UNDER 44.5
• Bills – 10 over Steelers
• Packers + 7.5 against Cowboys
• Rams +3 against Lions
• Bucs +3 against Eagles

            Just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:

• Bucs @ +140
• Bills @ minus-460   $100 wager to win $193.

And …

• Rams @ +145
• Browns @ minus-130   $100 Wager to win $333.

Finally, at the start of the NFL playoffs, it is appropriate to close here with a remark by Tom Landry whose Cowboys teams went to the playoffs 18 times between 1966 and 1985:

“Setting a goal is not the main thing.  It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL coaching carousel took another spin around the NFL world when the lead owner of the Tennessee Titans announced that Mike Vrabel would no longer be the Titans’ head coach.  Granted, the Titans have not been particularly good for the last two years, but Vrabel’s complete record there was 54-45 with three playoff appearances over a 6-year tenure plus one trophy as the NFL Coach of the Year.  To be clear, those are not “Hall of Fame numbers” just as they are not “Get This Bum Outta Here numbers” either.  There had been reports that Vrabel “wanted out” from the Titans because of an internal power struggle there.  This part of the official statement released by Amy Adams Strunk – – controlling owner of the team – – says to me that there was some sort of internal turmoil in effect:

“As the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions.  Last year we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan.  As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from a fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff.”

Sounds to me like “office politics” was in play in Tennessee …

Looking at Vrabel’s résumé, I believe the other teams already out there looking for a new coach need to think about a reset in which they add Mike Vrabel to their interview list.  In addition, Vrabel’s ties to the Patriots from his playing days could be a factor in the decision making for Robert Kraft in New England as he ponders the future potential of the Patriots with or without Bill Belichick in charge.  In fact, I will go even further out on the speculation limb here and say that there are some rabid Ohio St. fans out there who are unhappy to see Michigan’s recent success at the expense of Ohio St. who might want to start a drumbeat to get Mike Vrabel to take over the job in Columbus OH.  [Aside:  In case you have forgotten, Vrabel was a star at Ohio St. and is already in the Ohio St. Athletic Hall of Fame.]

Now, if you REALLY want to get funky with speculation consider this:

• There is a “report” out this morning that Steelers’ coach, Mike Tomlin might be considering stepping aside as coach of the Steelers and taking a break from the NFL entirely.  I will believe that when I see that … but …
• Mike Vrabel was drafted originally by the Steelers – – not the Patriots – – and spent the first several years of his career in Pittsburgh.

The Titans are in the AFC South Division which is in an interesting situation.  Each team in that division used last year’s NFL Draft to select someone who they believe can be their QB of the Future:

• Colts – – Anthony Richardson
• Panthers – – Bryce Young
• Texans – – CJ Stroud
• Titans – – Will Levis

It is too early to make pronouncements on the value of those selections, but this is a comparison that cannot be ignored after the next year or two.

And speaking of the AFC South Division, the turnaround of the Houston Texans must be acknowledged and praised.  In the three seasons between 2020 and 2022, the Texans’ combined record was a miserable 11-38-1.  This year, with a rookie QB and a first-time head coach in DeMeco Ryans, the Texans’ record was 10-7 making them the Division Champions allowing them to host a playoff game this weekend.  In that three-year span of futility, the Texans had three different head coaches plus an interim head coach for three-quarters of the 2020 season.  I suspect the franchise will have a bit more stability as it transits this off-season than it has had in recent years.

There is another interesting outcome from the 2023 NFL season that has not gotten the proper level of attention.  The four teams in the AFC North Division all finished with records above .500 for the regular season; the Bengals finished last in the division with a 9-8 record.  Such a result – – all teams in a division finishing over .500 in a season – – has not happened in the NFL at any time since the merger with the AFL in the 1970s.  According to a posting by Dan Daly on Twitter – or whatever it is being called these days – such a circumstance did happen in 1935 when the Western Division of the NFL saw the following results at the end of the regular season:

• Packers   8-4-0
• Lions       7-3-2
• Bears      6-4-2
• Cards      6-4-2

One last NFL item today …  In an interview after the regular season, Aaron Rodgers told reporters that what the Jets needed to do in 2024 was to “flush the bullsh*t” from the building.  Just a thoughtlet here:

• Aaron Rodgers has been the source of lots of bullsh*t with the Packers and then with the Jets in 2023.  However, I doubt he is suggesting that the Jets flush him out of the building.

Finally, much of today has dealt with change and evolution and speculation about the future, so let me close with this observation by George Santayana:

“Why shouldn’t things be largely absurd, futile and transitory?  They are so, and we are so, and they and we go very well together.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Congratulations to the Michigan Wolverines as the College Football National Champions this season.  I said last week in my Football Friday rant that I thought the game would be a close one; it was not.  By the middle of the second quarter, it was clear that Washington could not stop Michigan’s running attack and that the only way Washington stood a chance in the game was for Michigan to make multiple errors that handed the game to Washington.  In addition to dominating on offense, the Michigan defense caused the normally accurate Michael Penix, Jr. to have a terrible game going 27 of 51 for 255 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.  Michigan won by three touchdowns last night, but the game was not nearly that close.

Frans Beckenbauer died last weekend at the age of 78.  He was one of the greatest footballers of all time; in Germany he was referred to as “Der Kaiser”.  As a player, he had the stature of a current day Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo; even though he was a defender for much of his career, he was a two-time winner of the Ballon d’Or given to the player deemed the best in Europe over the previous year.  After his playing days were over, he was an important figure in the off-field world of futbol.

• He was a team manager in the Bundesliga and for the West German National Team.
• He was the lead organizer for Germany’s hosting of the World Cup in 2006.

Rest in peace, Frans Beckenbauer.

And speaking of European soccer – obliquely – recall that there was an attempt several years ago by some of the top teams in various top leagues in Europe to form a “Super League” of top-shelf football clubs.  FIFA and UEFA were naturally opposed to such an idea and used the threat of banishment from any FIFA or UEFA competition for teams and players to seemingly put that idea on ice.  However, two clubs – – Barcelona and Real Madrid – – from the Spanish La Liga decided to take this to court in the European Union.

I have said here many times that I am not an attorney.  Usually, I make that statement when I am about to comment on or discuss something ongoing in a US court to make it clear that whatever I say must be taken with a grain of salt.  In this case, I am about to comment on a legal issue heard by the European Court of Justice which makes my level of ignorance all the greater.  In fact, until I read about this decision, I did not know there was such a thing as the European Court of Justice.  However, here is my understanding of what the Court decided:

• FIFA and UEFA specifically cannot ban teams or players from engaging in a European Super League should such an entity come into existence.
• The European Court of Justice decided that such banishment or the threat of banishment violated European Union laws concerning competition in various industries and commercial markets.

One part of the Court’s written decision seems unambiguous to me:

“The FIFA and UEFA rules making any new interclub football project subject to their prior approval, such as the Super League, and prohibiting clubs and players from playing in those competitions, are unlawful.”

I have no idea if this court’s rulings can be appealed or if this is the final word on the legality of a European Super League but the organizers of such an entity have not wasted any time.  Organizers have unveiled a plan for a 64-team entity to exist in three levels of play.

• The Star League and the Gold League would each have 16 teams.
• The Blue League would consist of 32 teams.
• Teams would play matches in a Group Stage and then in a knockout phase which would determine league champions with promotions and relegations as is common in various European soccer leagues.

Don’t hold me to this, but I believe that relegation from the lowest league – – the Blue League – – would allow teams not in the original 64 teams to become part of the European Super League structure.

The organizers of this enterprise cannot be accused of lack of imagination.  They suggest the creation of a major streaming platform that would be free to anyone with Internet access so that any soccer fan anywhere in the world could see each and every European Super League game.  The idea is that with such a broad reach for its potential audience, the streaming platform could generate revenues through a variety of mechanisms to include advertising, premium access subscriptions and sponsorships.

As I understand it, this ruling does not penalize FIFA or UEFA in the sense that it forbids either or both entities from creating competitions within their orbit that might compete with or even overshadow European Super League events.  So, there could still be opposition and impediments for the ESL over the next several years as the new league goes through a gestation period.  The ESL has not set a specific start date for its competition(s) or even a timeline that would have benchmarks for league viability except to say that the organizers believe that the ESL will be fully operational “well before 2030”.  Stay tuned …

Finally, to begin to understand the passion and devotion of European soccer fans, let me close here with these words from Bill Shankly the former manager of Liverpool Football Club:

“Some people believe football is a matter of life and death.  I’m very disappointed with that attitude.  I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

At this point in the Earth’s journey around the sun, lots of folks are wont to say:

“New year … new me.”

Such is not the case here in Curmudgeon Central; naturally, I recognize the reality of a new year; nonetheless, this is the same old me.  And on Fridays, the same old me turns out a Football Friday.  So, let me begin as I always do with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College:  1-0-0   =>   Season:  20-9-0
• NFL:  1-2-0   =>   Season:  20-23-0
• Parlays:  1-1   Profit:  $103   =>   Season:  10-15   Profit $15

 

College Football Commentary:

 

With the college football bowl season in the rear-view mirror, let me offer some comments on the 3 worst and the 6 best bowl games that I saw at least a quarter of.  Believe me, there were plenty of bowl games that I did not see even a nanosecond of.

Three Bad Games:

• Georgia 63  Florida St. 3:  Given the Seminoles’ injuries and optouts, this is a game that should not have been played.  They should have sent Florida St. home and substituted a random team from the MAC.  That could not have been much worse.
• USF 45  Syracuse 0:  Another mismatch due to injuries and opt-outs PLUS a coaching disconnect for Syracuse.
• Western Kentucky 38  Old Dominion 35 (OT):  How can an OT game be awful?  ODU led 28-0 in the first half and coughed up this game in an epic display of ineptitude throughout the second half.

Six Good/Interesting Games:

• Oregon 45  Liberty 6:  The game on the field stunk but the game was a good one because it demonstrated the importance of “strength of schedule”.  Liberty was 13-0 and was clearly in way over their heads here.
• Missouri 14  Ohio St. 3:  The Buckeyes’ first string QB went through the transfer portal and the second-stringer suffered a foot/ankle injury; so, the Ohio St. offense was pretty much non-existent.  But the defense kept this a close game into the mid-4^th quarter.
• Ga Tech 30  UCF 17:  I tuned in to see UCF leading 14-0 in the first quarter.  I was going to change the channel; but something came up – – don’t recall what – – and I stuck with the game.  Tech then proceeded to dominate the game on offense and on defense.  Now, I wonder how UCF got that 14-point lead in the first place.
• Ole Miss 38  Penn St. 25:  This game was not as close as the score looks; the Nittany Lions scored a late and totally meaningless TD.  The best part of this game was seeing underclassmen at Ole Miss who will presumably be back for the Rebels next year to play solid football.  Ole Miss could be an SEC sleeper team in 2024.
• Washington 37  Texas 31:  Both teams played well enough to win this game; there was ebb and flow.  Completely entertaining time spent here.
• Michigan 27  Alabama 20 (OT):  I know what the seedings for the CFP say but I thought these were the two best teams in the tournament and the game certainly did not disappoint.

Anyone who has been reading these rants for any period of time knows that I think there are far too many college football bowl games.  If I were the Dictator of the Universe – – not to worry, no one has offered me that position – – I would probably allow a dozen or so bowl games to exist and put the kibosh on all the rest.  I mention that as a way for you to evaluate what comes next here.

Some commentators are rightfully lamenting the large number of players who choose to opt out of many of the meaningless bowl games.  In the case of Florida State this year, 23 players did not play in the game against Georgia due to injury or opting out to prepare for the NFL Combine or to go through the transfer portal.  The result is that the game on the field was supposed to pair two very good college football teams but only one showed up.

All the above is factual.  However, none of the above matters.  One of the consequences of NIL money going to players these days is that they no longer need “exposure” in nationally telecast bowl games because they now have their own options.  Until and unless bowl games once again become meaningful, this situation will continue to obtain.  Bowl Committees will invite teams like Georgia and Florida State to play in their games because both teams were certainly among the 5 or 8 best teams in the country based on play in the Fall, but as happened this year one or both teams will have significant “defections” such that the teams on the field do not resemble the teams anyone saw in the Fall.

Moreover, the expansion of the College Football Playoff from 4 teams to 12 teams portends a situation that is worse in the future than it is now.  With 12 teams in the CFP, that means it will take 11 games – – bowl games if you will – – to crown a champion.  The media attention – – and fan attention – – will be focused on those 11 games and that will take minor bowl games and render them meaningless and even less interesting than they are now.  Some of this year’s matchups were:

• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Ohio vs. Ga Southern
• New Mexico Bowl:  Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St.
• Frisco Bowl:  Texas-San Antonio vs. Marshall

You get the idea …

Those bowl games were nothing but afterthoughts with only three CFP games on the docket; how much less important will events like that become with attention diverted to 11 CFP games?  There is an obvious and unpalatable solution here:

• Players in bowl games need to be paid to participate with players on winning teams getting more payment than players on losing teams.

Several staffers at NCAA HQs just got a sharp pain in their necks as I finished typing out that last sentence.  My solution would be the absolute last option for NCAA folks; it would deny the concept of the amateur scholar-athlete that the NCAA has tried to will into existence for the last 75 years.

And one last observation about the upcoming expanded CFP.

• College teams now play 12 regular season games and the two best teams in each conference play a 13^th game in the conference championship game.
• Teams seeded between 5 and 12 in the CFP would need to play 3 more games to make it to the Final Game.
• By playing in that Final Game, a team seeded 5 through 12 in the CFP would have to play 17 games in a season.
• Excuse me …  Didn’t more than a handful of NFL players say it was dangerous to play a 17-game schedule?

 

CFP Final Game This Week:

 

Washington vs. Michigan – 4.5 (56.5):  This should be an interesting pairing; it is the first final championship game in the “playoff era” without an SEC participant since 2015.  The Huskies have not played a team with an offensive and defensive line as “bullying” as Michigan’s.  The Wolverines’ secondary has not faced a QB and a cadre of receivers as good as Washington.  Michigan has the nation’s #1 defense; Washington has the nation’s #1 passing offense.  As Flounder said in Animal House:

“Oh boy, this is great!”

[Aside:  FYI, due to conference realignment starting in 2024, Michigan and Washington will both be in the Big-10 next year and will play each other as a regularly scheduled game in October.]  The spread and Total Line have been rock-solid all week long telling me that the money bet on all sides of the wagers is approximately even.  Because I think the game will stay close, I like Washington plus the points and because I think both defenses will be primed for the game, I like the Total to stay UNDER; put both of those in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

As the NFL heads into its final week of the regular season, several games will resemble college bowl games where star players will not be performing:

• Lamar Jackson will be a cheerleader in support of Tyler Huntley.
• Patrick Mahomes will watch Blaine Gabbert run the Chiefs’ offense.
• Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald get the day off.
• Brock Purdy will give way to Sam Darnold – and maybe Brandon Allen? – this week.
• Joe Flacco gets a game off; Jeff Driskell will take his place.

That is the “news” emerging from top teams whose final game has no effect on their playoff status for the season.  At the other end of the NFL spectrum the “news” just might be focused on which coach is about to get fired sometime next week.  So, what I want to do here is to project which teams will be looking for a new coach very soon and then which of those projected jobs are good ones and which ones are not.

In no particular order, here are the jobs I think will be open very soon:

• Panthers – – no reason to retain the interim-coach in Carolina.
• Raiders – – think they will go for a bigger splash than retaining Antonio Pierce
• Chargers – – could you pick Giff Smith (interim coach) out of a lineup with the Smurfs?
• Pats – – surprising development, but I suspect that it is coming.
• Titans – – lots of reporting saying that Vrabel wants out of Tennessee.
• Commanders – – a new broom sweeps clean?
• Bears – – I am on the fence about the opening happening here.
• “NFC South” – – in addition to the Panthers, at least one other NFC South coach will fall this season.

Let me clarify that “NFC South” entry above.  I believe the coach of the division winner will keep his job.  The teams that finish second and third in the division might or might not retain their coaches and for the sake of argument here I will put them in my rankings for the most and least desirable jobs available.

• Chargers:  This is the best job on the board.  No team on my list has a QB that is remotely as competent as Justin Herbert.  The challenge is to build up the defense and to exorcize the injury demons that have haunted this team for at least the last three seasons.  The downside is that the Chargers are now and seem destined forever to be the #2 team in LA.
• Commanders:  The roster needs to be rebuilt; it is the roster that is deficient not the coaching staff.  Josh Harris has shown patience with his other sports franchises so there will be no pressure to make it to the Super Bowl in two years or any other delusional scenarios.  The fanboys will not be patient, but so long as the owner is, who cares?  Having a Top 3 or 4 pick in the next draft is very attractive for a new coach so long as he has faith in his GM.
• Bears:  Maybe this is even better than the Commanders’ job?  If you believe Justin Fields is your QB of the future, you can use the overall #1 pick to take Marvin Harrison, Jr.  If you are not convinced about Justin Fields, you can find a market for him, amass some more draft capital, take a QB with overall #1 pick and add to your roster with the overall #10 pick.  [Aside:  I would opt to keep Justin Fields.]
• Raiders:  They need a QB, and they need to upgrade the OL but there are going to be some interesting free agent QBs available very soon.  I am not impressed by the owner’s ability to hire GMs or coaches.
• Pats:  It is never a good idea to be the first guy to follow a legend in a job.  Who succeeded Lombardi in Green Bay?  Who succeeded Bryant at Alabama?    Moreover, the team needs a significant upgrade just about everywhere on the offense.
• Titans:  If reports are accurate the incumbent coach wants out because of “friction” with the GM and/or the owners.  Add that less-than-attractive element to a team that needs to develop players for the OL and at the pass-catching positions and this would be a hard pass for me.
• Panthers:  Here is an equation that describes this job opening:
  • • A roster that needs restructuring + a QB who may or not make it + a meddlesome/impetuous owner = NOT a good opportunity.

Here is some unsolicited advice for job seekers being interviewed for the Panthers’ opening:

• Make sure your agent gets you as big a compensation guarantee in your contract as possible because this job is only attractive as a cash-grab.

Let me assess the “NFC South” situation as a separate section.  The team that wins the division and gets to host a playoff game will probably keep its coach unless that team plays its home playoff game and gets blown out by 5-6 TDs.  The Bucs, Saints and Falcons can all win the division based on this weekend’s results.  Since I cannot be certain as to the outcome of this weekend’s games, let me offer an opinion on all three jobs.

• Bucs:  Who will be the QB going forward?  Baker Mayfield has had a career year and is a free agent to be.  When he is good, he is very good; when he is bad, he is awful.  [Hat Tip to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.]  How much longer will Mike Evans be a dominant WR?  The Bucs’ defense ranks 25^th in the NFL in yards allowed per game; how much fixing does that need?
• Falcons:  They desperately need an upgrade at QB and an upgrade at WR but not nearly so desperately.  The defense is solid, ranking 11^th in the league in yards allowed per game.  Ownership seems to be “hands-off” for the most part; that is a plus.
• Saints:  They thought they had solved the QB issue by obtaining Derek Carr last year but that is not working out as expected.  The roster is aging; and according to reports by people who know more about the NFL salary cap shenanigans than I do, the Saints have little to no cap room available without releasing players.  Presumably, the ownership situation there has calmed down; at one point there were lawsuits filed by children of the former owner against the current owner regarding the mental competency of the then-owner, Tom Benson.

I think there will be three good job openings this year – – Chargers, Commanders and Bears – – along with two potentially good openings – – Raiders and Pats.  I don’t think any of the others listed here are particularly attractive.

And speaking of NFL coaching, coaches and coaching positions, let me present my thinking as to the Coach of the Year Award.  I think it comes down to two people:

• DeMeco Ryans:  His Texans enter Week 18 with a 9-7 record and what looks to me to be a 50/50 shot at making the AFC playoffs.  Considering that the Texans were 3-13-1 last year, I think he deserves serious consideration.
• Kevin Stefanski:  The Browns are 11-5 and have secured a playoff slot.  They achieved that status despite having to have started four different QBs this year.  ‘Nuff said …

Now, let me review last week’s games:

Cards 35  Eagles 31:  The Eagles – – particularly the defense – – are a team in free fall.  They will be in the playoffs but will need a major reversal of form to make it out of the first round.  The Eagles led this game 21-6 at halftime and gave up 29 points in the second half.

• Cards’ Total Offense = 449 yards
• Eagles’ Total Offense = 275 yards

Bears 37  Falcons 17:  It seems counter-intuitive but both teams have records of 7-9 and the Bears just handled the Falcons.  Yet, the Bears are eliminated from the NFC playoffs while the Falcons are still alive for a playoff slot.  The Bears started strong and finished strong and outgained the Falcons by 125 yards for the day.

Rams 26  Giants 25:  The Rams clinched a playoff slot with this win; it was the third win in a row for the Rams.  The scoreboard was close, and the stat sheet was just as close:

• Rams’ Total Offense = 391 yards   Giants’ Total Offense = 389 yards
• Rams’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards   Giants’ Rushing Offense = 105 yards

A missed PAT in the third quarter by the Giants’ Mason Crosby proved to be the difference in the game.

Jags 26  Panthers 0:  With Trevor Lawrence unable to play, the Jags’ defense took control of the game holding the Panthers’ offense to only 124 yards in the game and 7 first downs.  The Jags had lost 4 games in a row coming into this one, but they simply dominated from start to finish here.

Colts 23  Raiders 20:  This result keeps the Colts alive for the AFC playoffs and mathematically eliminates the Raiders from those same playoffs.  The margin of victory was a second-chance field goal attempt by the Colts.  The first try was no good, but the Raiders were offsides and gave the Colts another try which was good.  That attempt produced the 23^rd point for the Colts in the game.

Bills 27  Pats 21:  The Bills were all but dead and buried in November, but this was their fourth straight win, and they can win the AFC East if they beat the Dolphins – – in Miami – – this weekend.  The Pats outgained the Bills in the game and the Pats’ defense held Josh Allen to a meager 167 yards passing.  The big difference in the game is right here:

• Bills’ Turnovers = 1 (INT)
• Pats’ Turnovers = 4 (3 INTs including a Pick-Six)

Ravens 56  Dolphins 19:  The Dolphins led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, but at halftime the Dolphins trailed 28-13.  Then things got significantly worse for the Dolphins in the second half.  The AFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore MD.

Niners 27  Commanders 10:  The game was close at halftime with the Niners only leading 13-10.  However, the Commanders were shut out in the second half and the game was well in hand for the Niners all during the 4^th quarter.  This win gives the Niners the overall #1 seed in the NFC playoffs; the NFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Santa Clara, CA.  The Niners outgained the Commanders 408 yards to 225 yards in the game and controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes.

Saints 23  Bucs 13:  The NFC South race will go down to the final game of the season and if the Bucs and the Saints both lose this week, the NFC South champion will enter the NFC playoffs with an 8-9 record.  A late meaningless TD by the Bucs made this game seem more in doubt than it was; the Saints actually led 20-0 as the fourth quarter began.  Four turnovers by the Bucs sealed their fate here.

Texans 26  Titans 3:  The Titans only managed to gain 187 yards in the game and the Titans running game only produced 53 yards on 21 rushing attempts.  The Texans’ record is 9-7 and they are still potential AFC South division champions.  Remember that the Texans’ record last year was a miserable 3-13-1.

Chiefs 25  Bengals 17:  The Chiefs trailed 17-16 at the start of the 4^th quarter and it was the Chiefs’ defense late in the game that earned this victory.  Here are the Bengals’ possessions in the 4^th quarter of the game:

• 3 plays – – 2 yards – – 1:02 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-14 yards – – 1:45 time of possession – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 13 yards – – 1:52 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

So, in the fourth quarter the Bengals’ offense ran 15 plays for a net gain of 1 yard over a time span of 4 minutes and 39 seconds.  The Chiefs are the AFC West champs.

Steelers 30  Seahawks 23:  This win assures that Mike Tomlin will not suffer his first losing season as the coach of the Steelers.  It also keeps the Steelers’ playoff hopes alive – – albeit not an easy path for the team.  Speaking of “not easy” the stat sheet says the Steelers should have won this game more comfortably than they did:

• The Steelers gained 468 yards in the game – – 99 more yards than the Seahawks.
• The Steelers time of possession was 37:33.
• The Steelers converted 6 of 13 third-down tries and 2 of 3 fourth-down tries.
• The Steelers ran 71 plays, and the Seahawks ran 49 plays.
• The Steelers did not turn the ball over in the game; the Seahawks lost a fumble.

Why so close?  Well, the Steelers got into the Red Zone seven times in the game and came out with a TD only three times.

Broncos 16  Chargers 9:  Jarrett Stidham was the QB for the Broncos here and this is his first win as a starting QB in the NFL.  Other than that, not much else of any import happened in this game.

Packers 33  Vikes 10:  This was a rout; no way to sugar-coat it.  Check these stats:

• Packers’ Total Offense = 470 yards   Vikes’ Total Offense = 211 yards
• Packers’ Time of Possession = 37:32  Vikes’ Time of Possession = 22:28
• Packers’ First Downs = 28  Vikes’ First Downs = 13
• Packers’ 3^rd down conversion = 9 of 14   Vikes 3^rd down conversion = 3 of 10

Both teams are alive in the NFC playoff race – – but the Vikes’ chances are on life-support in the ICU…

Cowboys 20  Lions 19:  To say the end of this game was “controversial” is like saying that Hemmingway was a decent writer.  Both teams are in the playoffs and just might meet again in a loser-leaves-town match.

Browns 37  Jets 20:  The Joe Flacco Express rolls on.  The surprise is that the Jets’ offense rolled up 360 yards of offense on the Browns’ defense here.  Notwithstanding that accomplishment, this game was never really in doubt after the first quarter when the Browns led 20-7.  The Browns are in the AFC playoffs with their 11-5 record to date; this was their 4^th win in a row.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

There are a lot of lines this week that look odd given teams’ records in the 2023 regular season.  Some of the games here resemble minor bowl games for college teams; you cannot be sure of the level of motivation by either the players or the coaching staffs.  For those of you out there who really like to “have a little something down” on games you will be watching, be careful this week.  The NFL is difficult enough to bet on in the middle of the season; betting in Week 18 is more like buying a lottery ticket.

The other interesting feature for this week’s game is that all 16 games are division games.  Obviously, that was done with “malice aforethought” by the NFL schedule makers; it was not an accident.

Also, there has been lots of line movement this week as news dribbled out about who would be playing and who would not be playing for various teams (see above for a partial listing).

 

(Sat Late PM) Steelers – 4 at Ravens (35):  The spread opened with the Ravens as a 3-point favorite with a Total Line of 43 points.  With Tyler Huntley replacing Lamar Jackson at QB for the Ravens the line moved a full TD and the Total Line shrunk by 8 points.  The Steelers have an outside chance at the playoffs, but that chance demands a win in this game.  This game will have all the grace and artistic flavor of a boxing match in a telephone booth.  Mason Rudolph has jump started the Steelers’ offense in recent weeks by throwing the ball down the field occasionally.  That may not be a great strategy against the Ravens’ defense.  And Tyler Huntley may not be the equivalent of Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think he is significantly worse than Mason Rudolph.  This may be the last chance to get the Ravens plus points this season; so, I’ll take that opportunity here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat Nite) Texans – 1 at Colts (47):  I gave this game some consideration as the Game of the Week. The game opened with the Colts as 3-point favorites, but the line has moved steadily toward the Texans as the week went on.  Unlike many games this weekend, both teams need a win in this one; both teams are 9-7 in the AFC South and both teams trail the Jags in terms of tiebreakers.  That seems to be a lot of pressure for rookie CJ Stroud as the Texans’ QB, but do not consider Colts’ QB, Gardner Minshew, a grizzled vet in these circumstances either.

Cowboys – 14 at Commanders (46):  The Total Line opened at 50 points; the shrinkage may reflect the idea that the Cowboys might take their foot off the gas in the later stages of the game?  The Cowboys have not yet clinched the NFC East, but a win here would nail that down.  The Cowboys are only 3-5 on the road this year and this game is in Washington.  But the idea that the Commanders will win outright is a bit much to swallow.  The Commanders might play to show their new coach what they can do on tape next month – – or – – they might lie down and get themselves ready for a family vacation in the sun somewhere.  One temptation here is to take the points and hope the Cowboys rest some players in the second half allowing a back-door cover by the Commanders – – but I shall resist that temptation.  Another temptation is to take the game to go OVER on the thinking that if the Cowboys get on a roll, they might cover the 46 points all by themselves.  I will resist that temptation also.  I am behaving here contrary to Oscar Wilde who said:

“I can resist anything except temptation.”

Rams at Niners – 4 (41):  Neither team needs this game; they are both in the playoffs and they know where they stand.  See above for all the players who will not participate this week in preparation for the playoffs.  I thought about this game as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because it will essentially be a junior varsity contest, but I settled on another one for that label.  The QB pairing here will be Carson Wentz (Rams) versus Sam Darnold (Niners).  Does that give you a tingly feeling?

(Sun Nite) Bills – 3 at Dolphins (49):  This is the Game of the Week. The spread opened with the Dolphins at 1.5-point favorites, but the line shifted quickly in favor of the Bills.  The Dolphins are assured of a playoff slot; the Bills will be the AFC East champs with what would be their fifth straight win; the Bills are not assured a playoff slot with a loss.

Falcons at Saints – 3 (42):  Here is another game where both teams need to win, and it will be all hands on deck.  If the Panthers rise up and beat the Bucs in Carolina on Sunday, the Saints can claim the division title with a win.  I believe that the Falcons would also win that division with a Bucs’ loss and their win over the Saints via division record as the tiebreaker.  This is an important game – – but I doubt it will be entertaining.

Eagles – 5 at Giants (42):  This line opened with the Eagles as 7-point favorites and with the Total Line at 47 points.  Why there has been such a large movement in the spread and the Total Line is not obvious to me.  Neither team needs this game; the Eagles might harbor some fantasy of winning the NFC East if they win here and the Commanders beat the Cowboys.  [Aside:  The Money Line on the Commanders this morning sits at +600.  Just saying …]  Meanwhile the Giants have been playing out the string for several weeks now.  The Eagles’ secondary has been porous for the last 6 weeks or so; maybe someone should whisper in the offensive coordinator’s ear that running the ball and taking some time to move down the field will take some of the pressure off that defensive secondary.  Got that?

Browns at Bengals – 7.5 (37):  This line opened with the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites, and it jumped to this level once it was announced that Joe Flacco would be sitting this one out.  At the same time, the Total Line dropped from 41.5 points to this level very quickly.  This is another game where neither team needs the game because their playoff fates are already decided.  This line is fat; even with Flacco on the sidelines, do I want to lay a full TD with a hook on Jake Browning’s version of the Bengals’ offense against the Browns defense?  No, I’ll take the Browns even without heavy motivation other than a rivalry game plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bears at Packers – 3.5 (45):  I believe this is a “win-and-you’re-in” game for the Packers.  It is clearly going to be a pressure game for Jordan Love as the Packers QB in front of their home fans this week.  Do not sleep on the Bears; they have won 5 of their last 7 games and they are scoring about 25 points per game over that time period.  I think the Bears will play the game seriously because it is a rivalry game; give me the Bears plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Seahawks – 3 at Cards (48):  The Seahawks can still make the playoffs, but it requires a loss by the Packers and a win here over the Cards.  The Cards are 4-12 for the season but two of those four wins have come over teams with an 11-5 record this week (Cowboys and Eagles).  One interesting aspect of the game is that the Cards are vulnerable to a passing game and the Seahawks are vulnerable to a running game.  So, which offensive “strength” will carry the day?  Purely a hunch, but I’ll take the Cards with the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jets at Pats – 2 (30.5):  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  When the game kicks off, the combined records of the two teams will be 10-22; both teams have been playoff after-thoughts for about a month; neither team is viable at the QB position.  The Jets rank dead last in the AFC in Total Offense; the Pats are 14^th out of 16 teams in the AFC in that category.  This game could wind up as a 10-10.  If so, it would be a fitting end to the season for both teams.

Jags – 3.5 at Titans (39.5):  The Jags are in the playoffs with a win; the Titans have been eliminated for a couple of weeks now.  The Jags have played much better on the road this year than they have at home.  They are 5-2 on the road and only 4-5 at home.  The Titans have a more “normal” home and away record this year; they are 4-4 at home and 1-7 on the road.  Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder injury has him listed as “Questionable” which makes this a non-wagering proposition.

Broncos at Raiders – 3 (38):  This spread has a lot of variation this morning.  You can find it as low as 1-point and as high as 3.5 points at various sportsbooks.  No, I have no explanation for this.  The Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham at QB again; cynics might say that they do so to cement in their minds that they need to acquire a real QB for the 2024 season.  The Raiders will play Aiden O’Connell at QB – – probably having already decided that he is not their “QB of the future”.

Vikes at Lions – 3.5 (46):  For the Vikes to make the playoffs, I believe they must win here and then have the Packers, the Bucs and the Seahawks all to lose this week.  I am not sure why the Lions have not announced that they will be resting some starters, but that is the status as of this morning.

Bucs – 4 at Panthers (37.5):  The Bucs have a simple task at hand; win and you’re in the playoffs.  The Panthers have won only twice this year – – but both of those wins came at home.  I saw a report that Baker Mayfield can earn a significant bonus in his contract if the Bucs win the NFC South division; he can also enhance his value as a free agent QB with a playoff appearance.

Chiefs at Chargers – 3.5 (35):  Yet one more game where one team is in the playoffs as a division winner and another team that is on the outside looking in.  The QB confrontation here will be Blaine Gabbert (Chiefs) versus Easton Stick (Chargers).  Curb your enthusiasm …

So, let me review this week’s 6-element “Betting Bundle”:

• Washington + 4.5 against Michigan
• Washington/Michigan UNDER 56.5
• Browns +7.5 against Bengals
• Bears +3.5 against Packers
• Ravens +4 against Steelers
• Cards +3 against Seahawks

            And here is a Money Line parlay for fun:

• Bears @ +145
• Bucs @ minus-240   $100 wager to win $247.

Finally, I’ll close here with these words from Bear Bryant about an important aspect of college football:

“It’s kind of hard to rally around a math class.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I ran across a stat that was unusual enough that I went to check it out.  Lou Gehrig was part of the famous Yankees’ team in 1927; he set a record for consecutive games played at 2,130 that stood until Cal Ripken, Jr. broke it about 60 years later; he also hit 4 home runs in consecutive at bats in a single game in 1932 – – a feat that has not been duplicated.  Those are “highlight stats” that most baseball fans know by heart.  Here is another amazing Lou Gehrig stat:

• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig played in 1695 games.
• From 1927 to 1937, Gehrig had 1690 RBIs.

The math for that says he drove in .998 runs per game which is close enough to 1 RBI per game to generate this sort of mental musing:

• What sort of contract might a current player get if he had driven in 162 runs in 162 games over even a 3- or 4-year span?
• The last player to exceed 162 RBIs in a single season was in 1999 when Manny Ramirez drove in 165 runs.
• Over the last 10 years, the highest total for RBIs for a season in MLB was last year by Matt Olsen; he drove in 139 runs.
• The MLB record for most RBIs in a single season is held by Hack Wilson (Cubs) in 1930; Wilson drove in 191 runs that year.

Moving on …  The landscape for Spring Football in the US has changed.  The USFL and the XFL have figured out a way to merge into a single entity that will be called the UFL – – the United Football League.  Both the USFL and the XFL competed with 8 teams last year; because of the merger, the number of franchises will be halved; the UFL will consist of 8 teams.  Play will commence in March 2024 if all goes according to plan.

The 8 teams in the UFL are going to be located in an interesting array.  There will be two conferences – – the USFL Conference and the XFL Conference presumably to acknowledge the roots of the UFL.  Let me first list the teams here to make an observation:

XFL Conference:

• Arlington Renegades – – Arlington, TX
• DC Defenders – – Washington, DC
• San Antonio Brahmas – – San Antonio, TX
• St. Louis Battlehawks – – St. Louis, MO

USFL Conference:

• Birmingham Stallions – – Birmingham, AL
• Houston Roughnecks – – Houston, TX
• Memphis Showboats – – Memphis, TN
• Michigan Panthers – – Detroit, MI

Half of the teams in the new UFL are going to play in areas where there is an existing NFL franchise.  The other half will be in “virgin territory” for pro football.  The thing that I find interesting is that of the ten largest TV markets in the US, the UFL will only have a franchise in three of them:

• #5 – – Dallas/Fort Worth
• #6 – – Houston
• #9 – – Washington DC

The reason I find this interesting is that FOX and ESPN both have some sort of ownership stake in the merged UFL and that would have led me to think that the new league would have a team in either NY or LA or Chicago just to “plant the flag” in one or more of the Top 3 TV markets in the country.  But such is not the case …

On the other hand, if the new league is willing to make a go of it outside the big metropolitan areas in many of the franchise locations, I wonder why the new league chose to compete with the Cowboys, Texans, Commanders and Lions with four of the new franchises.  If I were looking for a place to put a Spring football franchise that would compete for local attention with an NFL team, I would think of Chicago where the Bears are looking to get out of town leaving a functional facility in the “downtown area” that could be readily available.  But I am not a TV mogul from either FOX or ESPN …

I have no reason to wish for the UFL to fail; its existence will potentially provide grist for these rants.  Nevertheless, I would lose “Curmudgeon Credibility” if I did not point out that one way to look at this merger is as a 50% contraction as compared to the two previous Spring football entities.  Normally, when commercial enterprises contract, it is an indication that they cannot sustain themselves within the bounds of their current and projected revenues.  From that viewpoint, it becomes a bit more difficult to take seriously the words from Daryl Johnson who will serve as the head of football operations for the UFL:

“As we come together to create the UFL, we can build something powerful, exciting and very cool for football fans — a spring league with lasting impact for all the players with a dream to play pro football and the ‘hardest workers in the room’ mentality to make their dreams come true.”

Finally, Spring football in the US has been an aspiration for more than 40 years now; leagues have come and go; when they are in the “coming stage” there is an abundance of hope in the air. So let me close today with these words from Nietzsche:

“Hope in reality is the worst of all evils, because it prolongs the torments of man.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………