Category: Daily Rants

Late last week – at about the eleventh hour – MLB and the MLBPA reached an agreement on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  There were only about 24 hours left on the old agreement when the bargaining concluded and now it needs to be ratified by the owners and by the players as a whole.  The term of the new CBA would be 5 years which would mean that there would be no threats or danger of strikes, work stoppages, lockouts and the like through 2021.  The last time there was a work stoppage in baseball was in 1995 so when this agreement is ratified, there will be a 26-year period of “labor peace”.

In 2016, the estimated revenue for all of MLB was $9B.  An off-handed interpretation of the new agreement would be that the folks representing the billionaire owners and the folks representing the millionaire players found a way to continue to bathe in the flow of $9B annually.  I am sure there was more to it than that; but when I read about the things that baseball writers and commentators consider noteworthy in the new agreement, I am not so sure that the off-handed interpretation is so wrong.  Let me dispense with a couple of terms in the new CBA that seem self-evident to me:

 

1. The use of chewing tobacco and other forms of smokeless tobacco is banned in MLB.  Current players who use these products are grandfathered but new players will not be users.  I hope it did not take long for both sides to agree that this was a good idea.
2. The All-Star Game will no longer determine the home-field advantage for the World Series.  The fact that it ever did was abjectly stupid from the moment it was first uttered aloud.  Home field advantage will now go to the team with the better regular season record which is as it should have been for about a century now.  This issue does not put or take a single penny in or out of either side’s pockets; I hope it did not take long for both sides to reach agreement here.  In algebra class in high school, we all learned that removing a negative number is a positive; therefore, I choose to call this CBA provision the World Series Algebraic Clause.

Missing from the new CBA is a provision to put a pitch clock in MLB games.  Too bad…  They use a pitch clock in minor league games and it seems to work just fine.

There are changes in the rules governing Qualifying Offers for potential free agents.  Briefly, under the old CBA, if a player turned down a Qualifying Offer and then signed with another team as a free agent, the signing team lost a draft pick and the money associated with that pick in the signing bonus pool and took a reduction in the amount it could spend on intentional players.  Now, the “costs” associated with signing such a free agent are scaled.  Teams who are over the luxury tax threshold will lose a second round and a fifth-round draft pick – plus associated money in signing pools – while teams under the luxury tax limit will only lose a third-round pick.  That is the abbreviated version of the changes; if you are interested in the “wherefores” and the “moreovers”, Google is your friend…

Since I mentioned the luxury tax threshold above, that number is going up over the 5 years of this agreement.  In 2016, it was $189M in total payroll per club.  Here is how it changes in the new agreement:

•             2017: $195M
•             2018: $197M
•             2019: $206M
•             2020: $209M
•             2021: $210M

Penalties for teams that exceed these new thresholds increase too.  First time “offenders will pay a 20% luxury tax; second time “offenders will pay a 30% tax and third time offenders will pay a 50% tax.  Moreover, there is a new “luxury surtax” for teams that are way over the threshold.

•             Over by $20M to 40M = 12% surtax
•             Over by $40M the first time = 40% surtax
•             Over by $40M the second time = 42.5% surtax.

Th last thing in the new CBA that I find interesting is that “Moneyball” is about to undergo a significant change.  The Oakland A’s have been recipients of the MLB version of revenue sharing based on their low attendance and revenue status.  That is going to change; the A’s are in a large metropolitan area and should not be considered a “small-market team” like Milwaukee or Tampa.  Some reports said that there are owners in MLB who do not think that the A’s have taken the revenue sharing money and plowed it back into “team improvement initiatives” and that those voices prevailed on the MLB side of the bargaining table.  Obviously, I do not know if that is the case or how all of this came about in the new CBA.  However, if those reports are correct, the Oakland A’s are a troubled franchise.

The A’s are clearly the “junior partner” in the Bay Area market.  The Giants drew 3.37M fans in 2016; the A’s drew 1.52M fans in 2016 – second lowest in MLB.  The A’s play in a stadium that would be paid a compliment if one were to call it an upholstered toilet.  They are going to be phased out of the revenue sharing money meaning they will likely be fielding teams for the foreseeable future comprised of young players who are auditioning to go to other teams.

Finally, I used to watch Sesame Street with my kids when they were of an appropriate age for that program.  Every day, the program would be “brought to you” by a letter of the alphabet – and a number – and they would feature words that began with that letter.  Well if you are a Sesame Street alum and an NFL fan, you might conclude that the 2016 season is not being brought to you by the letter “C”.  Four teams in the league are from cities that begin with “C” and here are their records:

•                         Carolina: 4-8-0
•                         Chicago: 3-9-0
•                         Cincy: 4-7-1
•                         Cleveland: 0-12-0
•                         TOTAL:  11-36-1

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

The US Men’s National soccer team (USMNT) has had two bad losses in international qualifying play in the past several weeks.  Naturally, the response to those losses (to Mexico and then to Costa Rica) was to fire the coach, Jurgen Klinsmann.  The soccer-adorers in the US would have their emotions somewhere between orgasmic and rapturous in the event that the US were to win something big like the World Cup or the Olympic Gold Medal in soccer.  Precisely because they can imagine such euphoria, they simultaneously imagine that such achievements are not just possible but are likely if only they could get the right guy to “coach ‘em up” properly.

The soccer-adorers are living in a delusional state; but when one is in such a state, reality and fantasy blur at the edges.  Moreover, they so fondly want the fantasy state to become the reality state that their mood is improved when the coach gets fired and a new victim/coach is put in charge.  Hope springs eternal … and all that stuff.

The new coach will be Bruce Arena.  He had the job once before and not surprisingly, he did not take the USMNT to the sorts of heights that the soccer-adorers envision for their national team heroes.  There was a time when the soccer-adorers were only happy to see Bruce Arena replaced at the helm for not getting the job done; today he is the maven that will kick down the barricades keeping the USMNT from its glory.

Let me be clear; I am not someone who roots against the USMNT.  I also admit that there are tons of people out there who recognize the subtleties of play in soccer games that totally escape my notice.  Having said all of that, here is something that is very clear to me when I watch international soccer games:

• There is an obvious difference in the way the players on other teams play the game of soccer as compared to the way the players on the USMNT play the game of soccer.  The difference is qualitative and not quantitative; nonetheless, it is real and it is not hard to see – – unless one prefers not to see it from the get-go.

That qualitative difference is why the USMNT is on a different plane of existence in the world of international soccer from the plane occupied by teams from Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and the rest of the usual suspects when it comes to top international competition.  I have a hypothesis – it is not even sufficiently established to call it a theory – as to why this is the case.

The US has 320 million residents; that is a large pool of potential soccer players from which to distill 20 or 25 guys who will represent the country in international competition.  By comparison, here are the rough populations of some countries that are far more accomplished in international soccer than the US:

1. Argentina has a population of about 42 million
2. Brazil has a population of about 200 million
3. England has a population of about 53 million
4. Germany has a population of about 60 million
5. Italy has a population of about 60 million

Costa Rica – the team that just beat the USMNT by a score of 4-0 – has a population of less than 5 million people.  So why would it appear that the US is mining such “low-grade ore” when it comes to finding about 25 guys to play consistently at the top levels of international competition?  I reject the argument that there are not enough natural athletes in the population here in the US or that all the really good athletes go into baseball or football or basketball because that is where the money is.  There are plenty of minor sports where American athletes consistently competitive and soccer is on a higher potential income level than many of those other minor sports.  [Aside:  As soon as I write this, I am certain that someone will form a National Luge League and start offering six figure contracts to lugers everywhere…]

My hypothesis is that the youth sports culture in the US is the problem.  I have read in several places that “Soccer Academies” are commonplace in much of the rest of the world.  These “Soccer Academies” take children – some as young as 6 years old – and begin to give them the skills necessary to be a top-shelf player.  The key word in that last sentence is “skills”.  These academies stress fundamentals and techniques and learning the game through drills and repetition and practice.  Here in the US, we take kids and have them practice and then put them into “game situations”.  If the “most promising” players here were taught skills more than given the opportunity to play games and spend hours en route to games for travel teams, I think the USMNT would be in a better place 10 years down the road.

One of those “qualitative differences” that I see when watching the USMNT play against an English or Spanish team is this:

• The foreign players seem to know what they are going to do with the ball as it is approaching them while the US players seem to be trying to control the ball first and then figure out what their next move shall be.

I think that particular “qualitative difference” can be explained by the constant repetition of skills exercises that foreign players undergo in their development; they do not need to do things sequentially and in finite quanta of play; they seem to know what to do – and how they are going to do it  – before they are in a position to do it.  Moreover, their teammates appear to be able to see what is happening and to recognize what the player about to receive the ball is going to do next even before he is in possession of the ball.

If I am even close to correct, the thing that is keeping the US from the pinnacle of international soccer competition is not the coach and it is not really the players themselves.  I think a large part of the “problem” is that we develop our young players in a less effective manner than the rest of the world does.  Players who grew up developing skills and anticipation will distill down to a better national team than players who grew up playing games whenever possible and letting the outcome of those games depend on superior natural athleticism.  In the US, our youth player system favors the offspring of young affluent parents; there are loads of kids who could not possibly afford to be part of a “travel team” and in the US, if you are not on that track, you are not likely to be recognized as a “high potential player” on school teams.  We have limited our pool of talent and we do not teach skills the way they do internationally.

Jurgen Klinsmann lost games because – and this is only a bit of an exaggeration – he took a knife to a gun fight.  That happened to Bruce Arena in the past prior to his firing as the coach of the USMNT and it is going to happen to him again sometime in the next 3-5 years.  Unless of course, Bruce Arena finds a lamp on a beach somewhere and rubs it and a genie appears and …

Finally, there was an “incident” involving a player on the South African National Soccer Team that drew commentary from two sportswriters:

“A player was kicked off South Africa’s national soccer team for passing gas in the direction of the coach.  You can’t help but feel the team chemistry may be slightly off.”  [Brad Dickson, Omaha World-Herald]

And …

“SowetanLive.co.za reported that striker Tokelo Rantie got booted from South Africa’s national soccer team for passing gas in the direction of manager Ephraim “Shakes” Mashaba.

“Somewhere, the late Margaret Mitchell is smiling.”  [Dwight Perry, Seattle Times]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Back before the NFL season began, I did my annual exercise in embarrassing myself by predicting every team’s record for the 2016 season before the kickoff for the first game.  Part of that exposition is always my list of “Coaches on the Hot Seat” and with the NFL season now 75% finished, I thought I would go back to see at how those predictions look.  I had 8 coaches on the hot seat and here is what I said then and what I think now.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Gus Bradley (Jags): I had him on this list last year but the Jags showed definite improvement in 2015. I think that the Jags are a team on the rise and that Bradley will in fact be back next year. However, if I am dead wrong on that and the Jags regress to something like a 3-13 record, he will be toast. So, I put him on the list for the sake of completeness.”

Today, I say the Jags have regressed significantly and Bradley is going to be toast in early January 2017.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Jim Caldwell (Lions): Last year, the team rallied to win 6 games in the second half of the season to finish 7-9. If you do the math there, that means the Lions were 1-7 in the first half of the season. Presumably, the Front Office saw the second half surge as a harbinger of good things for 2016. If that is the case and if the Lions do not build on that surge, I suspect that Jim Caldwell will be moving on at the end of the 2016 season.”

Today, I say that the Lions look as if they will make the playoffs and Jim Caldwell will not be moving on.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Jeff Fisher (Rams): The Rams underachieved last year and I thought that the Rams had not been “playoff relevant” for a while now, so I went and looked up Fisher’s record there. It is not pretty:

• He has been with the Rams for 4 seasons. The combined record is 27-36-1 and there have been no playoff appearances for the Rams.
• Moreover, his last winning season (with the Titans) was all the way back in 2008.

Fisher signed a 5-year contract in 2012; this is his “contract year”. The Rams now play in LA where teams that contend for titles draw plenty of attention and adulation and where bad/mediocre teams fade into obscurity very quickly. Fisher and the Rams had better win this year.”

Today, I say that despite rumors of a 3-year extension of Fisher’s contract about 2 months ago, the Rams have been disappointing at best this year and a good way to take the LA fans’ minds off that disappointment would be to hire a new coach.  I think he will be fired after the Rams finish out of the playoffs.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Jason Garrett (Cowboys): In no way, would he be responsible for a bad year by the Cowboys. In fact, you might argue that he enters the season in the situation where he has brought a knife to a gunfight. But expectations were really high for the Cowboys this year; Jerry Jones has been hyping the 2016 season ever since the 2015 season ended. So, if the Cowboys really tank this year, Jerry Jones may need to do something symbolic to show his fanbase that he is doing more about “winning” than talking about “winning”. So, put Garrett on a hot seat even if he does not deserve to be there.”

Today, I say that the Cowboys have certainly not tanked and Garrett is not on anything resembling a hot seat now.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Marvin Lewis (Bengals): I believe that Lewis is the coach – not named Belichick – with the longest tenure with his team in all of the NFL. Granted, he took over a dysfunctional team in a dysfunctional franchise and got everything headed in a positive direction. The Bengals owe him a lot for that.

• Some perspective here. Lewis has had the Bengals in the playoffs 7 times in 13 seasons. Prior to his arrival in Cincy, the Bengals had been in the playoffs a total of 7 times in 37 seasons.
• Before Lewis arrived, the team was not-so-affectionately known as “The Bungles” and they earned every morsel of that moniker.

Here is the problem; the Bengals have not won a playoff game in the 13 years that Marvin Lewis has been the coach there. The team is 0-7 in playoff games and have lost in the opening round in each of the last 5 seasons. Last year’s loss was due to a total loss of focus/control/discipline on the part of two defensive players. That sort of “loss” falls under the heading of “coaching”. I think Marvin Lewis needs a playoff win this year…”

Today, I say that the Bengals are not going to win a playoff game because they are not going to come close to making the playoffs.

In early September, this is what I said:

“Mike McCoy (Chargers): This is his 4th season in San Diego. In his first year, the team went 9-7 and made the playoffs (and won a playoff game too). In his second year, the team went 9-7 again but missed out on the playoffs. Last year – under a blizzard of injuries – the Chargers were 4-12. McCoy is on a hot seat if the team goes 4-12 again. He does not have to win his division – I do not think the Chargers can do that – but they have to be better than getting the overall #3 pick in the draft once again.”

Today, I say that the Chargers have indeed done better than last year but it looks as if the Chargers will be no better than 8-8 this year.  McCoy’s seat is hot but ownership in San Diego has to deal with bigger questions right now than coaching changes – – such as where might the Chargers call home in the future.

In early September, I this is what I said:

“Mike Mularkey (Titans): He took over in mid-season last year and went 2-7 in his 9 games then. Management gave him a shot to move things forward this year but his coaching record is not one that inspires a lot of confidence. He has been a head coach for 3.5 seasons. Back in 2004 (with the Bills) he had a 9-7 record. Since then, his cumulative record is 9-32. Add to that negativity the fact that the Titans’ roster is “talent-challenged”. I think this hot seat will be ”Habanero Hot” come January 2017.”

Today, I say that the Titans are challenging for first place in the AFC South and could well finish the season at 8-8.  That is not a great record but it is a huge step forward for a franchise that has exactly one winning season since 2009.  Mike Mularkey is sitting pretty about now…

In early September, this is what I said:

“Rex Ryan (Bills): Like Jason Garrett above, he may be looking at a season where a sterling record is highly improbable. Nonetheless, given the braggadocio and the setting of ultra-high expectations that is the hallmark of any Rex Ryan press conference, he might be out of a job come January if the team falls below .500. For the record, Ryan has an overall losing record as a head coach (54-58-0) and his last winning season was back in 2010.”

Today, I say that the Bills are still alive in the wild-card race in the AFC but they are indeed longshots there.  Looking at the schedule, finishing the season at 9-7 is an optimistic outlook from here to the end of the season.  I think Ryan’s seat is hot – but not en feugo – and that most of the heat comes from his continuing projection of his team as the best in the league, which they are not.

Teams doing badly this year who may have put their coaches in jeopardy include:

 

NY Jets:  Todd Bowles is not the reason the team is 3-8 but the fact is that the team is 3-8 and in NYC that is about as much fun as a splinter under your thumbnail.

Cleveland Browns:  Yes, they are 0-12 but with that roster, they would have needed incredible luck just to be 2-10.  In addition, owner Jimmy Haslem has hired and fired so many coaches and GMs in the past few years that he might not be able to get any top-shelf candidates even to take his phone calls come January.  Hue Jackson’s job is – and ought to be – safe.

Indy Colts:  Yes, Chuck Pagano got a contract extension last year.  However, someone should be responsible for that roster and the year-after-year demonstration of the same roster flaws.  Maybe he stays and the GM goes?  Maybe not…

Green Bay Packers:  If the Packers finish 6-10 …

Chicago Bears:  John Fox has shown that he can coach in the NFL but trying to win games with Matt Barkley at QB goes beyond the realm of “coaching  ‘em up”.   Probably, the best the team can achieve this year is 5-11 – and more likely 3-13 – so a coaching change in Chicago is certainly not out of the question.

Arizona Cardinals:  The Cards are 4-6-1 as of this morning and many folks thought they could be Super Bowl participants in February 2017.  If they finish 6-9-1, will the owners see this as a coaching failure or will they recognize that the team needs a roster overhaul – including an upgrade at QB?  Remember, the Bidwell’s own the Cardinals…

 

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times regarding coaching in another sport in another country:

“Former Czech Republic hockey coach Vladimir Ruzicka, accused of taking $20,750 from a player’s father who said he paid to let his son play, has been convicted of fraud.

“In other words, this Czech didn’t clear.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A few days ago, I noted that the LA Rams had won two games this year without scoring a TD in either game.  I suggested that this sort of thing may have happened for frequently “in the 30s and 40s” but that I could not recall it happening recently.  Even though I should have, I did not expect an e-mail response from the reader in Houston who is the repository for sports history and stats.  Here is what he provided;

“In the 1920’s, there were 77 games in which a team won without scoring a TD. There were also a load of 0-0 and 3-3 ties and some 6-6 games that no TD was scored during that period. Please note that in the 20s, the average number of games per year was less than 80.

“In the 1930’s, there were 37 such games won without scoring a TD and there were still ties, but not as many as the previous decades. Please note that in the 30s, the average number of games per year was less than 55.

“In the 1940’s, there were only 4 such games and that includes both the NFL and the four years of the AAFC.

“More recently, there were no NFL games from 2013 to 2015 in which the winning team scored fewer than 10 points, but there have been two this season: the two mentioned above. LA is the first team since the 1997 Bills to win two games in one season in which it scored fewer than 10 points. Buffalo did that in Marv Levy’s final season as its head coach, with victories against Indy and Miami, each by a 9-6 score on all field goals.”

A tip of the hat in the compass direction aimed at Houston, TX for that information…

There was a minor tempest in a teacup a few weeks ago when Dallas Mavericks’ owner, Mark Cuban, pulled the press credentials from two ESPN reporters because ESPN made a decision he did not like.  Evidently, ESPN decided that one of the two reporters would not cover the Mavs exclusively this year but would also cover the NBA “in general”.  Cuban took exception and refused to give the reporters press credentials which kept them away from the team and the locker rooms.

Since Cuban owns the team, he has every right to hand out press credentials however he sees fit.  Some people immediately screamed that this was a “First Amendment issue” which it most certainly is not.  Later as it became advantageous for both Cuban and ESPN to modify their positions without appearing to give in to the other side, the basis for Cuban’s actions somehow became associated with “robot reporting” of sports stories as a new trend in that field.  Both sides here could agree that “robo-reporting” was “bad”; ESPN could wave the banner of “quality in journalism” while Cuban could stake out a position as a “defender of jobs for journalists”.  In any event, everyone kissed and made up…

However, when I look at the NBA standings this morning, I note that the Dallas Mavericks’ record is 3-13 and that record is the worst in the NBA at the moment.  Indeed, the Mavs are trailing both the Sixers and the Nets in the standings – albeit not by much – as of this morning.  Perhaps, the Mavericks would be treated more kindly by a “robo-reporter” than a “quality journalist” given the product on the floor.  Just a thought…

Last week, the NCAA announced that Notre Dame would have to vacate its football victories from 2012 and 2013 because a student-trainer did academic work for some of the players on those teams which is a violation of NCAA rules and thereby made those players ineligible.  Ergo …

That sounds pretty cut and dried but when you look just a bit closer, you begin to see frayed edges on the fabric of this decision.  Consider:

1. Notre Dame discovered this on its own and suspended multiple players for academic violations on its own. The NCAA super-sleuths and the NCAA Committee on Infractions had no idea this was going on until Notre Dame informed them of the problem.
2. The “punishment” is feckless to the Nth degree. In 2012, Notre Dame played Alabama in the BCS Championship Game.  Vacating all the wins prior to that game does not take them out of that game and put a different team in there to play Alabama.  Is anyone to believe that the 12 teams that lost to Notre Dame prior to the BCS Championship game actually won those games?
3. More on the feckless punishment … From this point forward, Notre Dame will suffer exactly nothing for something that the Committee on Infractions thought was sufficiently heinous that it had to issue a punishment 4 years after the fact.  There is no loss of scholarships – nor should there be; there is no ban from post-season play – nor should there be.  The football program will proceed apace from here on save for the silliness of “vacated wins” in the past.
4. Hold on, here comes “the hammer” from the NCAA mavens … In addition to vacating those wins, Notre Dame must pay a fine of $5K and the school had to take the public reprimand from the NCAA.  To which I say:

Whoop-di-damned-doo!!

Finally, in the aftermath of Thanksgiving week, here is a comment from Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald regarding something we may not have realized we should be thankful for:

“Thanksgiving is a day to give thanks that none of the three NFL games featured the Cleveland Browns.”

But don’t get me wrong, love sports………

 

For about the last 6 or 8 weeks, one of the “go-to topics” for sports radio and/or studio analyst discussion on TV was this:

• Should Dak Prescott keep the Cowboys’ QB job once Tony Romo is healthy?

The two sides of that “debate” never really varied from some tried and true lines of “reasoning”:

1. A player should not lose his job due to an injury.
2. A winner on the field should stay on the field – the Tom Brady/Drew Bledsoe outcome.

All that was at least marginally interesting for the first half-dozen times I had to listen to it but it did start to wear thin quickly and then it became rather annoying for the next 500 times I heard it.  Now that the “fundamental question” has been resolved by the Cowboys, I believe there is a very real “existential” question that should be considered – and was not considered in any of the “debates” I heard previously:

• Given that the Cowboys will owe Tony Romo $14M as a base salary in 2017 and that his salary cap hit will be approximately $24-25M, can the Cowboys afford to pay that kind of money for a backup QB?

At first blush, the answer seems obvious; how can any team spend about 15% of its salary cap money on a backup player at any position?  Well, the Cowboys have enough young players that they were able to fit everyone in under this year’s cap with Tony Romo sucking down a similar percentage and what he has given the team so far is exactly what a backup QB would be expected to give to the team.  Rather than speculating on whether or how the capologists in Dallas will juggle the numbers, I prefer to ask a different question because it deals with football and not with bookkeeping:

 

If – I said IF – the Cowboys were to decide to release Tony Romo and suffer the consequences of the “dead money” that his release would engender, whither Tony Romo?

 

Obviously, he could choose to retire from the NFL.  I am not authoritative when it comes to unraveling the intricacies of NFL contracts and bonuses and cap hits and the like but my calculations say that Tony Romo will have earned somewhere in the neighborhood of $115M over the course of his career with the Cowboys at the end of the 2016 season.  Absent a terminal case of financial blockheadedness, that ought to mean that Tony Romo and his family should be financially secure for life; he should not be worrying a lot about how much his Social Security check will be about 30 years hence.

But suppose he wants to continue to play QB in the NFL and he is a free agent who can go wherever he wants.  I am now going to engage in mind-reading and as I have certified many times in the past, I have exactly no skills in that area.  In actuality, this is nothing more than a pro football version of omphaloskepsis.  I would not imagine that Tony Romo at age 36 would be interested in going to a team on the skids right now to be part of a 5-year program to rebuild a franchise.  Translation:  I do not see him in a Cleveland Browns’ uniform or a SF Niners’ uniform.  I also think you can strike a line through any team that has either a Pro Bowl QB as a starter now or a team that has committed to a young QB already.  Translation: I do not see him in a Detroit Lions’ uniform or an Atlanta Falcons’ uniform AND I do not see him in a Philadelphia Eagles’ uniform or an Oakland Raiders’ uniform.

I can imagine him playing for a team where as a starter he might represent an upgrade at QB for a team that has lots of strengths in areas of the game.  Who might those teams be?

 

Arizona Cardinals – I think Carson Palmer is going downhill rapidly.

Denver Broncos – Siemian is not the long-term answer.  Paxton Lynch is a question mark.

Houston Texans – might they have a giant case of buyer’s remorse already?

KC Chiefs – the longest shot of the teams on the board here

LA Rams – good defense, good running back, mediocre quarterbacks on the roster.

Minnesota Vikings – Bradford is signed only thru 2017

NY Jets – do not think I need explain any further here.

 

My point here is that if the Cowboys and Tony Romo decide to “go in different directions” come next Spring and if the Cowboys wish Tony Romo the “best of luck in his future endeavors”, there is about 20% of the NFL out there where he might fit in as a starting QB who could have a significantly positive impact on team fortunes.

Tony Romo lost his starting job in Dallas.  What might be next if he loses his clipboard holding job in Dallas?

Finally, here is a word from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“English golfer Ian Poulter, in fit of pique, took a club and whacked his bag a few times — shattering not only his cellphone, but his caddie’s, too.

“That was certainly uncalled for.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

In last week’s NCAA Mythical Picks, I said that if Texas lost to Kansas, I would not be surprised if Charlie Strong was fired on the spot and had to rent a car to make his way home to Texas.  Well, Texas indeed lost to Kansas in one of the more embarrassing performances of the 2016 season – – but Charlie Strong was not banned from the team transportation home.  However, if you believe the reports showing up via many of the very reputable sports media, Charlie Strong is not long for the job in Texas.

ESPN.com says that prominent boosters (note the use of the plural noun there) are putting “extreme pressure” on the administrators in charge of UT-Austin to fire Charlie Strong.  Make no mistake, Texas was one of the college football bluebloods from bygone days. However it could only hold onto the fantasy that it is still one of the elite college football programs in the US if it avoided losing to a team like Kansas who brought the following recent résumé to last Saturday’s game:

 

When Kansas beat Division 1-AA Rhode Island early this year at home, the student body stormed the field.  Rest assured, no college football program that pretends to be “upper echelon” would have students who thought that was a good idea.

It had been two full years since Kansas had beaten a Division 1-A opponent.  For most of the years of its existence, the Texas football program feasted on opponents like that.

Texas did not avoid that odious loss…

 

Also, according to the ESPN report, those same “prominent boosters” want Texas to hire Houston coach, Tom Herman and have him move about 150 miles to the northwest to put Texas back in the football spotlight that boosters remember from happier times in the past.  Look, there is no doubt that Tom Herman has done a wonderful job at Houston turning an ordinary team in the American Athletic Conference into a team that has earned national attention.  I am perfectly willing to stipulate that Tom Herman is a superb college football coach.  I also wish to put on the record that Charlie Strong did an outstanding job at Louisville before the Texas boosters who want him fired now pressured the school to go out and hire Charlie Strong.

The problem with the pressure that the boosters are putatively applying to the Texas administration is that the pressure is born of unrealistic expectations.  Many of the boosters recall the times when Darrell Royal ran the wishbone offense better than anyone could stop the wishbone offense and dominated college football year after year.  Those days are gone and many of the boosters who view those days as some sort of a birthright need to stop bleeding orange and recognize that Texas is no longer the dominant football force that it once was.  Big time boosters of collegiate athletic programs are not very good at looking at the world through “reality spectacles” and much prefer to don the “rose colored glasses”

Imagine if I were to make these two assumptions:

On top of those two assumptions fraught with optimism for a rapid resurrection of the Texas football fortunes, the fact remains that at Texas the head coach has to compete with the likes of Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. and TCU and Baylor and Kansas St. every year and those programs are better programs than what coaches in the American Athletic Conference  face annually:

1. Cincy
2. Carolina
3. Memphis
4. Navy
5. SMU
6. Temple
7. Tulane
8. Tulsa
9. UCF
10. UConn
11. USF

Texas can become bowl-eligible if they win this week against TCU.  If Texas is hell-bent to fire him and hire Tom Herman who will be a hot property in the coaching carousel this winter, it would not surprise me to see someone else coach the Longhorns in whatever bowl game they might participate.  I fully anticipate that the separation of Charlie Strong from the Texas football program will be a public and messy affair…

In the NFL, the Cowboys lost in Week 1 and the Niners won in Week  Since those balmy days of September, these two teams have headed in opposite directions.  This morning the Cowboys are 9-1 riding a 9-game win streak.  This morning the Niners are 1-9 bearing up under the strain of a 9-game losing streak.  However, the Niners’ plight is even worse than that:

• The Niners’ loss to the Pats this weekend was the 7^th time this year that they lost by double digits.  They are not losing “squeakers”; they are on the short end of significant losses.
• In 8 of their 9 straight losses, the Niners’ defense has allowed an opposing running back to go north of 100 yards in the game.  Just to be clear, that is not good…
• Fan support is rapidly eroding.  I only saw the game on replay but by the middle of the third quarter, if you added the number of people wearing Pats’ gear to the number of empty seats, I think you would have had at least 60% of the stadium capacity – and maybe 70%.

Finally, here is a comment from Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald reacting to LeBron James’ signing of a 3-year contract extension with the Cavaliers worth $100M:

“That will take him through the next six Cavaliers head coaches.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

At the beginning of the football season when Colin Kaepernick began his national anthem protest, I said that I defended his right to protest even though I would have chosen some other way to do so.  Even when other players in various sports chose to join him in those protests, I said that there needed to be some products of these protests over and above the act of taking a knee during the national anthem; symbolism and “awareness” are fine but they do not effect change by themselves.

Well, yesterday there was a report at espn.com saying that things have moved to the next level.  It seems that Lions’ WR, Anquan Boldin, has worked quietly behind the scenes to arrange for 5 NFL players (including Boldin of course) to go to Washington DC for meetings with members of Congress – possibly to include Speaker Paul Ryan – and perhaps members of the White House Staff.  All of this happened yesterday while news focus was elsewhere but ESPN reported that the topics of discussion were police/community relations and the level of mistrust that exists between the African-American community and the police in those communities.

I want to say congratulations to Anquan Boldin and to the folks mentioned in that report who helped arrange these meetings/discussions.  This is a logical next step in the protest landscape for this issue; there is more potential for constructive action to come from that sort of activity than there is for taking knee during the anthem.  Lawmakers at the national level are not going to resolve these issues; these are far more local problems than national ones.  Nevertheless, these national lawmakers have the stature and the ties to various local authorities and to various local community leaders to arrange for focused actions to ease tensions and anxieties on both sides.  What Anquan Boldin and these other 4 players accomplished was to take the protest and the issues beneath the protest from the sidelines of a football game and to put the issues before a set of folks who might – if they choose to act on the issues – begin to make things better.

Let me suggest here – and I admit this is easy for a commentator to do so long as the commentator does not have to do the dirty work – that another important step in the potential resolution of these issues will be to have people with community recognition and leadership to take these issues to the police departments in cities where there are significant tensions.  Ultimately, that is the venue for resolution of these tensions and anxieties but it is the existence of those tensions and anxieties that demands a diplomat/mediator to act to bring the parties together and to get a process of resolution started.  What happened yesterday is an important step even though it is not the final step.  Perhaps, yesterday was the time when people moved from “raising awareness” to “getting people with the power to do something to do something”.

Recently, there was a report in the Triangle Business Journal that said that the Hula Bowl will be relocating to Raleigh, NC starting in 2018.  I don’t know about you, but when I think of Raleigh, it takes me a while to fire enough synapses to get the image of “hula” in my brain.  Nevertheless…

The Hula Bowl is one of those college All-Star games that used to populate the calendar in December and January in the days when there were not about 2 dozen abjectly meaningless bowl games on the schedule.  The Hula Bowl has been dormant since 2008; it was nominally a casualty of the “Great Recession”; in actuality, the game had seen declining interest and attendance for several years prior to 2008.  To be sure, the financial woes in that year kicked the snowball over the cliff, but that snowball had been on the perch for a while by then.

The report linked above paints the picture of a rosy future for the Hula Bowl in Raleigh.  Time will tell if there is room enough for yet one more concocted college football game in the sports landscape.  Let me just say that I will not be considering investing my IRA funds in this venture…

I made a note that it was on 7 November 2015 when CBSSports.com published its first column on “Bracketology” for the 2015/16 college basketball season.  Prior to the playing of even a minute of actual intercollegiate basketball for the season, this sort of exposition represents a projection of how the men’s basketball tournament brackets will set up in the second week of March 2017.  Were the Bard of Baltimore – H. L. Mencken – still alive today, I am sure he would label that sort of speculation as:

“Buncombe !!”

I am a staunch supporter of the First Amendment; nevertheless, I would support any law or any action that would ban that sort of nonsense from the Internet or the airwaves prior to March 1 of the college basketball season.  [Aside:  I would similarly support a law or action that would ban Mock Drafts from the Internet or the airwaves until 2 weeks before the NFL Draft is scheduled.]  Bracketology articles – and Mock Drafts too – are space fillers and nothing more.  If I were to venture out into the orbit of political commentary and I were to produce for you my list of the candidates in the Presidential primaries for the election in 2028, you would be in a position to – quite properly – tell me to remove my head from my ass and to do something productive with my time and effort.  Each time you see an article headlined as Bracketology, just substitute “Presidential primaries 12 years hence” and then decide how eager you are to read on.

Finally, after the Eagles cut WR. Josh Huff after Huff’s arrest on a variety of charges, Scott Ostler had some advice for Huff in the SF Chronicle:

“The Eagles cut wide receiver Josh Huff after he was stopped by New Jersey police, who say Huff was speeding, drunk, carrying marijuana, driving with illegally tinted windows and packing a handgun with no permit, loaded with illegal hollow-point bullets.

“But his tires were properly inflated.

“Huff faces a marketing challenge. He says, ‘I have to do what’s best to rebrand my image.’ Like, work on being a model prisoner?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Reports yesterday said that Butch Davis will take over as head football coach at Florida International.  Previously, Davis had been the head coach at Miami for 6 years in the 90s where he was successful to the tune of a 51-20 overall record.  After that success, he took the job coaching the Cleveland Browns for 4 years and – let me just be polite here – he did not replicate the same level of success in Cleveland that he did in Miami. He did get the Browns in the playoffs one year with a 9-7 record, but overall his teams went 24-35.

After sitting out a couple of seasons, Davis became the head coach at UNC in 2007.  At the time of his arrival, the UNC program was in a bad way; the team had a winning record only once in the previous six seasons.  Davis turned that around; in his second season in Chapel Hill, UNC went to a bowl game.  Then came NCAA investigations.

In 2010, the NCAA began investigating the possibility that some UNC players had had improper contact with a sports agent in Miami and soon after that began, UNC started an internal investigation about some possible “academic fraud” issues involving one of the tutors in the team’s academic support mechanism.  Rather quickly, several players were suspended and a couple were permanently removed from the football program and one assistant coach resigned amid allegations that he was involved with things like improper benefits and contact with agents.  For a moment, it seemed as if the program had taken a hit but had righted itself and was ready to move on.

Channeling Lee Corso here for a moment:

“Not so fast, my friend …”

The NCAA conducted an investigation of its own and found that there were some improprieties but that the school had found them out on its own and had taken sufficient disciplinary action and sufficient action to avoid such problems in the future.  Just when things began to look as if everything was hunky-dory, the news broke about the phony courses and the guaranteed high grades in courses offered by the African American Studies Department.  The head of the department was implicated and had to step down from his position and the academic scandal spread like a pandemic.  The school actually hired a former governor of North Carolina to head up an investigation into that stink and what he found was not pretty.

All of this put Butch Davis on a hot seat and he was fired in 2011.  The entirety of the matter is still not resolved; the NCAA and UNC are at odds over several matters that came to light in the various investigations here.  Presumably, that will all sort itself out some day.

Getting back to yesterday’s reports, Florida International is several steps lower on the NCAA football ladder than either Miami or UNC.  FIU football history goes all the way back to 2002 when it was a Divison 1-AA program; it only became a Division 1-A program in 2005.  The school had early success going to bowl games in 2010 and 2011 but the team has regressed since then.  The team has not had a .500 season since 2011.

Coaching success in college begins with recruiting.  Butch Davis has shown that he can recruit good players – and coach them up competently – in the past.  The difference between his previous gigs and this one at FIU is stature.  Miami had a history as a football powerhouse in the 90’s; UNC is an easily recognized athletic program within the NCAA hierarchy; FIU is a johnny-come-lately football program that participates in C-USA which is a backwater of Division 1-A football.  I follow college football “overall” but I promise you that I could not name the teams that make up C-USA. All I do know off the top of my head is that this conference provides candidates for my fantastical SHOE Tournament every year; the presence of those teams on that list from year to year has taught me that Rice and UTEP and North Texas and – yes – FIU are members of C-USA.

This is an interesting hiring decision for the school.  Davis is 65 years old; so, actuarily, he is not someone that you think of when you are looking at a ten-year growth program that will lead FIU out of C-USA and into an expanded ACC or something like that.  At the same time, it is hard to argue that Davis’ record of success brings a lot of focus to the football program there.  Truth be told, I cannot name another head coach in C-USA at the schools I know are in that conference – and I doubt that if I went to the C-USA website to see all the other teams in the conference that I would be able to name more than one other head football coach.

I think this will be an interesting situation to watch…

The Canadian Football League is in the middle of its playoff structure.  This is a 9-team league where 6 of the teams make the playoffs; because it has an odd number of teams divided into an Eastern and Western Division, one of the Divisions is larger than the other.  In order to keep the season “competitive” and interesting as long as possible, the playoff structure for the league allows for a “crossover”.

If, for example the team that finished 4^th in the 5-team West Division has a better record than the 3^rd place team in the 4-team East Division, then that 4^th place West team crosses over and participates in the tournament as if it were the 3rd place team in the East.  That happened this year due to a fundamental imbalance between the East Division and the West Division.

In the West, four teams finished above .500 for the season; the 4^th place Edmonton Eskimos were 10-8-0.  In the East, things were not nearly so pretty; the East Division Champions were the Ottawa Redblacks who posted a season record of 8-9-1.  The fact that the East Division was won by a team with a sub-.500 record made it rather obvious that Edmonton would be the “crossover team” for the Grey Cup Playoffs this year.

This weekend will be the semi-finals for those playoffs.  Edmonton survived its first-round game and will play Ottawa this Sunday; in the West Division bracket, the BC Lions will visit the Calgary Stampeders.  The winners of those two games will play for the Grey Cup the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  Oddsmakers in Las Vegas favor Edmonton by 2.5 points and Calgary by 7.5 points in these games.

Finally, Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald captured the essence of fans’ frustrations with game delays in this comment:

“The Cubs needed 108 years, seven games, a rain delay and extra innings to win a World Series. This whole thing felt like a replay review in football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

I got an email over the weekend with a great offer.  If I wanted to buy “genuine” NBA gear at 50% off – or more – all I had to do was to click on a link and go to some website that I will not reproduce here for reasons that will become obvious in a moment.  One of the jerseys pictured in the email was #24 from the LA Lakers.  The email sender identified it as the jersey of “Colby Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakes”.  At that point, I figured there were two explanations:

I chose #2 and deleted the email.  When you get one in your inbox, I suggest you do the same…

In addition to the country electing a President last week, the good folks of San Diego spoke clearly with regard to public financing for a new stadium for the Chargers.  I do not pretend to understand what provision of law in either California or San Diego – or both – required a ballot initiative prior to the city fathers striking a deal with the team owner.  Nevertheless, I think that is a great provision of law and that other jurisdictions would do well to replicate it in other jurisdictions.  The deal was supposedly going to be financed by a rise in the hotel tax allowing proponents to say that out-of-towners would be paying for the stadium.  The people did not buy that.

The new stadium financing proposal only got 43% of the vote.  In electoral politics, a vote of 52% – 48% is considered a “landslide win”; I do not know if there is a word that makes “landslide win” seem like a trivial matter; if there is such a word, I think it might apply to the stadium funding initiative in San Diego.

So, where does this leave the Chargers and the NFL?  Here are some possible pathways to the future:

1. Stasis. The Chargers stay in San Diego and continue to play in Qualcomm Stadium even though ownership – and others – say it is outdated and sub-standard.  [Full disclosure:  I have never been to that stadium to see a game.  I have driven by it and seen it from the road.  That is the full extent of my personal expertise here.]  In such a circumstance, the Chargers would continue to make money year after year after year – albeit not as much as they might make in a new playpen.  For an NFL team actually to lose money these days, it would have to be operated by a lobotomized garden slug.
2. The Chargers have an option – I believe it expires next February – to move to LA and be a “junior partner” in the new stadium complex that Stan Kroenke and others are building there. I have to imagine that Kroenke would prefer not to have such a “partner” and will drive a hard bargain in whatever partnership agreement would be forthcoming.  However, as I understand it, his approval to move the Rams to LA last year by the NFL had that contingency in the approval.  I think the Chargers would be destined to exist as “junior partners” in this arrangement for eternity – – with particular emphasis on the word “junior”.
3. The Chargers might cast a loving glance in the direction of Las Vegas NV where the State money for a new stadium ($700M) has already been approved by the legislature and signed by the governor. [Aside:  Interestingly, Nevada will pay for the stadium bonds with an increased hotel tax levied in the city/county of Las Vegas.  No referendum was required.]  A team moving to Las Vegas will have to deal with Sheldon Adelson who is also putting up a reported $650M for the project; perhaps, the Chargers can get a better deal from Messr. Adelson than they can get from Messr. Kroenke?
4. Recall that the Chargers and the Raiders had a “partnership proposal” in front of the NFL owners last year where they would build a stadium in Carson, CA and both teams would move there. Is there another deal to be made between those two clubs?  I doubt that the NFL would approve of 2 teams moving to Las Vegas…
5. The NFL continues to say that they want a team in London…

I do not do a lot of commentary here on NHL happenings for the simple reason that I do not follow the NHL nearly as closely as I follow other sports – particularly in the regular season.  A friend who tracks the NHL much more closely told me to go and look at the following data and to think about an explanation.

• The Montreal Canadiens have played 16 games so far this year and have won 13 of them.
• At one point, they had an 8-game win streak going for them as they went to Columbus, OH to play the Columbus Blue Jackets.  As of this morning the Blue Jackets have won 7 of their 13 outings.
• In that game in Columbus, the Canadiens lost by a score of 10-0.  In their 16 games so far this season, the Canadiens have only allowed 34 goals.  Other than this debacle of a game, the team gives up an average of 1.6 goals per game; in that game, they gave up 10 goals.

I have thought about this; I have no explanation…

Finally, Brad Dickson of the Omaha World-Herald demonstrated great insight with this comment on college football:

“In Thailand, a tortoise raced a hare. This is the Thai version of Michigan playing Rutgers in college football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

At the conclusion of the 2002 season, the Oakland Raiders lost the Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  For the next 13 seasons – through 2015 – the Raiders have enjoyed little success.

• There have been no winning seasons since 2002.
• Only twice (2010 and 2011) did they have a .500 record.
• In 10 of those 13 seasons, they have had double-digit losses.

The 2016 Raiders are 7-2 and they lead the AFC West Division by half a game over the Chiefs and by a full game over the Broncos.  We are only in early November and the Raiders are guaranteed to have a winning record on the road for the season; they are currently undefeated on the road with a 5-0 record.  And so, the first conclusion one might draw is that things are looking up for the fans in Oakland – particularly the ones who inhabit the Black Hole on Sundays.

Maybe so – and maybe not…

If you are a Raiders’ fan with nothing but nostalgic ties to the city of Oakland, you are thrilled with the on-field results to date.  If, however, you are a Raiders’ fan who lives in Oakland or who has some fundamental feelings about the OAKLAND Raiders, you may be feeling apprehensive about the team leaving town.  A move to Las Vegas has been going through the traditional kabuki theater that precedes such franchise moves:

• Protracted negotiations with Oakland indicate no new stadium there.
• A plan to move to LA thwarted by other NFL owners.
• Negotiations with the city-fathers of Las Vegas.
• State money approved by the Nevada legislature and signed by the Governor.

And then, recently, the caravan leading the Raiders to Las Vegas hit a speed bump…  Part of the financing for the new stadium in Las Vegas would come via $650M thrown into the pot by Sheldon Adelson – CEO of Las Vegas Sands, a hotel/casino company.  According to financial estimates by people who purport to know about such things, Mr. Adelson’s net worth is close by the neighborhood of $29B.  This $650M commitment is a little more than 2% of his net worth.

Nevertheless, one would have to believe in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy – and maybe in some sort of interspecies liaison between those two fantastical creatures – to expect that Mr. Adelson’s $650M is a gratis contribution to the movement of the team.  Obviously, he wants a part of the Raiders for himself in exchange for his backing and his cash.  And in recent reports, it would seem that Mr. Adelson is not satisfied with whatever Mark Davis is offering him.  In one report, Adelson supposedly responded to a Davis proposal with a take-it-or-leave-it offer of his own.

I am skeptical about that report because that is hardly a way to get to a negotiated settlement but the fact that such a report is out there means that Adelson is not fully on board yet.  For Oakland fans who tie the team to Oakland, that could be a good thing because without Adelson’s ante into the pot, there is not enough money to build the sort of stadium that has been touted all through this process.  Moreover, I suspect that Mr. Adelson is shrewd enough to recognize that his inexorable ties to gambling casinos will get in the way of NFL owners’ approval of a move until the owners have time to acclimate themselves to having any ties to casino owners at all.

I would not be surprised at all to learn that Mr. Adelson really wants to own the Las Vegas Raiders at some point nor would I be surprised to learn that Mark Davis does not want that to happen.  What this deal needs is “a broker” or a “diplomatic interlocutor” to keep the parties from painting themselves into separate corners.  Moreover, that “broker” needs to be someone who can “chat up” a bunch of the NFL owners to make them positively disposed to the deal.  That person is:

 

Jerry Jones

 

The Cowboys’ owner has expressed his support for this move and for the benefit that the Raiders would bring to the NFL in this new facility.  He is a mover and shaker in the NFL owners’ community and he has the credibility and the capability to be the guy that both Adelson and Davis can turn to for advice and counsel here.  It has not happened yet, but I would not be shocked at all to hear that it is ongoing sometime very soon.

There is another NFL owners’ component to all of this and that involves the relocation fee that the league will assess to the Raiders just for the privilege of pulling up stakes and heading somewhere else.  When the Rams moved to LA last year, the fee was $550M; Rams’ owner Stan Kroenke could comfortably write a check for that.  According to reports, Mark Davis does not have that kind of liquidity meaning he would need to pay the fee out over time.  In addition, there might be an owner or two who could view this vote as a way to settle some sort of old score with Mark Davis’ father, Al Davis.  Obviously, I have no inside information here, but it is not a huge stretch of my imagination to think that some NFL owners might be venal and petty individuals.

Meanwhile, a private group in Oakland is trying to pull together enough money to buy the Oakland Coliseum so as to build a new stadium on that site and keep the Raiders in Oakland.  That group does not have a Sheldon Adelson on board so let’s just say that they have a rather significant Kickstarter campaign on their hands.

There are lots of moving pieces here; the momentum is clearly in the direction of a move to Las Vegas but there is not yet a document spelling out the terms of the deal to which anyone can affix one’s signature.  However, Mark Davis says he will begin the formal NFL process to relocate in January 2017.  That means there are about 8-12 weeks for folks to tie up all these loose ends into a pretty package.

Happy Holidays, everyone…

Finally, Brad Dickson of the Omaha-World Herald had this slant on the Las Vegas Raiders:

“There may soon be an NFL team called the Las Vegas Raiders. This is sort of like when Sodom annexed Gomorrah.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………