Category: Daily Rants

Last week’s Kentucky Derby provided a race with some historic happenings.  It also provided a historically high handle for wagering.

• The Derby itself attracted $148M in total bets.
• The entire card for Derby Day was $223.7M according to The Daily Racing Form which is an authoritative source on matters such as this.

The handle on US horse racing has increased this year and the common interpretation for this is that new tax rules reduce the number of winning wagers that are automatically reported to the IRS and for which a portion of the winnings will be withheld immediately.  I certainly cannot offer any informed opinion on that.  I would also point out that the number of races at tracks in the US has also declined meaning that there are possibly more races with more betting interest available to hose players.  Whatever the cause, it appears that the racing industry is experiencing an uptick in its fundamental economics.

The other datum about Derby Day that was interesting to me was that attendance at Churchill Downs was announced as 157,813.  That was the eighth largest attendance in Derby history and the weather had to be one of the eight worst in Derby history.

In another sport, there are reports of possible changes based on fundamental economics there.  Reuters reported on Monday that NASCAR may be up for sale and this potential decision by the France family – the folks who own NASCAR – may be in response to:

“… an aging fan base, stricter safety rules and a competitive media landscape that have weighed on its popularity and made it less attractive to advertisers and sponsors.”

Reuters also says that the France family has retained Goldman Sachs to look for deals here but that things are still in a very preliminary/exploratory stage.  The “aging fan base” has been a drag on NASCAR because younger fans – particularly millennials – have not shown a great affinity for NASCAR meaning that TV ratings have dropped significantly from previous high levels.  This has reduced revenues meaning that networks and media distributors are reluctant to continue to pay a lot for TV rights fees.  Here is a link to the Reuters report.

Every once in a while, I run across a story that makes me think to myself:

• There is dumb, and there is stupid … and then there is this.

A couple of weeks ago, Packers’ WR, Trevor Davis, got himself arrested.  He was not driving drunk or strung out on some sort of recreational drug; he was not involved in any sort of domestic violence; he was not brandishing a weapon.  Here is what allegedly happened.

• Trevor Davis and a female traveling companion were at Los Angeles International Airport evidently checking in for a flight on Hawaiian Airlines.
• When he was asked the standard suite of security questions at the baggage check counter, he turned to his traveling companion and allegedly asked her, “Did you remember to pack the explosives?”
• That is a stupid thing to do but his traveling companion took it to a new level when she allegedly answered, “Yes.”
• The attendant at the baggage check counter did not respond to this as light-hearted banter or anything of the sort; she called airport security.
• Airport security folks take nothing of this sort lightly; when they arrived, they arrested Trevor Davis.  He was booked and then released because in fact he did not have any explosives in his baggage.

Maybe this is the reason that NFL teams continue to administer the Wonderlic test to potential draftees/signees?  That was a monumentally stupid thing for Davis to have done.

Finally, here is a comment from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle about a recent nominee to President Trump’s new President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition:

“Bill Belichick. Because nothing screams healthy lifestyle like Bill Belichick.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I do not spend a lot of time talking about the NHL here for the simple reason that I do not believe that I understand any of the subtleties of ice hockey better than the average/casual viewer.  That is not to say that I do not enjoy watching ice hockey because, in particular, I very much enjoy watching the Stanley Cup playoffs.  This year there is a great storyline that has developed around the Las Vegas Golden Knights.

If ever there were a “Cinderella Hockey Team”, the Knights must fit that mold.  This is the first year of existence for the franchise; this is a team created from the culls of every other team in the league.  By expectation, this team should have been eliminated from playoff consideration sometime around Christmas; nevertheless, the Knights have just won the second round of the playoffs in the Western Conference and are poised to take a shot at being in the Stanley Cup Finals.

There have been plenty of Cinderella stories in sports, but none are quite like the Golden Knights:

• The Whiz Kids of 1950 were a shock to the baseball world.  A Phillies team that had been the doormat of the National League for the last 25-30 years suddenly stood up on its hind legs and won the NL pennant.  Nevertheless, the Phillies had been a franchise that was in existence for about 70 years at the time; there were not Johnny-come-latelies.
• The Miracle Mets of the late 60s won the World Series with a frantic rally at the end of the regular season and a continues run of inspired play in the post-season.  The Mets were close to an expansion team; they had been in existence for less than a decade.  However, unlike the golden Knights, the Mets’ inaugural season was a disaster.  In 1962, the Mets as a team posted a record of 40-120; it is a modern standard of futility.
• A couple of years ago, Leicester City shocked the English football world and won the English Premier League.  Prior to the start of the season, betting shops in England gave 5,000-1 odds that Leicester would not do that – – but they did.

Those three teams provided huge surprises in the sports world – – but I do not think that any of their exploits were as surprising as what the Golden Knights have done so far this year.

Speaking of sports in the playoffs, I feel compelled to say something about the TV coverage of the NBA Playoffs and it is a disturbing trend.  I think this began with the coverage of/fascination with Jack Nicholson sitting courtside at Laker games; he was a celebrity and took an interest in NBA games in LA and drew media attention.  Around the same time, the Knicks were the team that had Spike Lee at courtside for every one of their games.  Unlike Nicholson, he did not just watch the games; he was animated in his fandom in his courtside seat.  The TV directors loved to catch him in his exuberance.

This fascination has gotten out of hand.  Now we have far too much coverage of Drake at courtside during Raptors’ games and/or Kevin Hart during Sixers’ games and/or Rob Riggle at any game anywhere.  [Aside:  I have never found Rob Riggle to be funny; and to me, there is nothing more painful to endure than someone trying to be funny when he/she is absolutely not funny.]

• Memo to NBA Playoff TV Directors:  The product you are putting on the air to sell to the public involves athletes on the court and not celebrities – – or in some cases marginal celebs – – who show up courtside as much to be seen there as to watch the game itself.  Dial back that coverage more than just a little bit.

Now, if Queen Elizabeth were to show up at a game in a courtside seat, that would be newsworthy, and you should let us know about it – briefly.  Other than that …

If my following of the latest in NFL contract news is correct, the four highest players in the NFL for now are:

• Matthew Stafford – – $27M next year
• Jimmy Garoppolo – – $27.5M next year
• Kirk Cousins – – $28M next year
• Matt Ryan – – $30M next year.

I do not begrudge any of them even a single nickel of their contracts, but I do have to point out that none of them has won anything of any consequence in any of their careers.  Yes, I know that Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a Super Bowl, but I contend that the total collapse of the Falcons in that game surrendering the 28-3 lead they had in the second half of the game negated the fact that they were in the game in the first place.  Expectations for these four gentlemen are – and ought to be sky-high.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this comment in the Seattle Times regarding another instance where the world of sports intersected the world of politics:

“Texas Wesleyan baseball coach Mike Jeffcoat nixed a recruit from Colorado because that state’s ‘liberal politicians’ legalized marijuana use, so the school fired him.

“Or as eye-for-an-eye advocates prefer to frame it, he weeded himself out.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

One of the major stories from last week involved the cheerleaders for the Washington Skins.  According to several former cheerleaders as reported in the New York Times, there was a trip to Costa Rica in 2012 where the team invited some of its big-spending suite purchasers and other sponsors to come along as the cheerleaders were there to do a photoshoot for a calendar.  At least some of the posed shots were topless; at least one allegedly involved only body paint for clothing; the assertion is that the big-spenders and the sponsors – – all males – – were invited to look on and watch those proceedings.  Then there were social events in the evenings and the cheerleaders were asked to accompany/escort the men to those events although all agree that there was no sexual angle to any of this.

Obviously, there are counter-stories from others on this trip – – including the cheerleaders’ leader back then.  However, the official statement(s) from the team were unabashedly tone deaf – as if one could expect anything else from the folks who run that team.

• They started out on the right foot.  Team President, Bruce Allen, said that they were doing a full investigation.  However, he could not stop there; he had to add that, “We’ve heard very different first-hand accounts that directly contradict many of the details of the May 2 article [in the New York Times.”   Even if you have heard such things, why not keep your mouth shut until you are finished with your full investigation that you said was ongoing?
• The momentum today is clearly in favor of women speaking out about prior incidences where they were harassed – or worse – in the workplace.  How could the Skins’ communication folks not recognize that this was not the time to cast aspersions on the credibility of these team employees without an investigation?
• For the record, Bruce Allen is the president of an NFL franchise only because he is the son of a former great coach in the NFL.  Basically, he won the sperm lottery
• Given the “difficulties” that the NFL has had with cheerleaders for various other teams, the league needed this pimple to burst like New Orleans needs a return visit from Katrina.

I await the results of the “full investigation” that Bruce Allen asserted was ongoing.  I will be interested to see how “thorough” it is made to appear to be.  I will withhold comments until then.  However, you should read the column written by Jerry Brewer in the Washington Post last week as this story broke.  Here is the link; you should read it in its entirety.

I have said for years that the NFL Combine is the most over-hyped part of the NFL year.  I still cannot understand why anyone would watch this on TV as a bunch of players go though close-to-meaningless drills that are timed and measured.  Even worse, there are people who pay good money to sit and watch this stuff; it is less interesting than a track meet because at a track meet all the events actually involve real competition with winners and losers.

The point about over-hype was driven home to me when I read a report over the weekend saying that the NFL invited 334 players to participate in this year’s Combine.  There are 7 rounds and 32 teams, so there are only 224 picks to be made in the draft; when you throw in some compensatory picks and you wind up with 256 selections in this year’s draft.  So, even if every player taken this year had been one of the Combine invitees, there would have been 78 players on the outside looking in.  However, there were 117 Combine attendees who never “got the call” from an NFL team over the 3 days of the Draft.

That means that 35% of the guys that the league thought highly enough of to offer an invitation were of no interest to any of the teams in the league.  Even the so called “insiders” and “professionals” are not in the know on this kind of stuff.  Keep this in mind next year when you are tempted to tune in to see how high an offensive lineman can jump…

Finally, here is a comment from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot about the TV coverage of the Kentucky Derby:

“TV Timeout:  Because it is unavoidable, NBC’s five hours of Kentucky Derby coverage will again include fawning tableaus of the horsey set’s one-percenters.  That and also stupid hats.  You know, the stuff with which the masses can easily identify.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL Competition Committee has been at work trying to make kickoffs safer in NFL games.  There are myriad aspects to their suggested changes in what sort of blocking will be permissible and how formations for the kicking team will be regulated.  You can find descriptions of the proposed changes in this report by Mark Maske in the Washington Post.  It seems as if the Competition Committee recognizes that kickoffs are problematic regarding “player safety” but the Committee wants to try to legislate ways to keep kickoffs in the game.

There was a recent study cited by ESPN which concluded that kickoffs in the NFL were 5 times more dangerous to players in terms of concussions.  Moreover, the study also found that many of the concussions incurred on kickoffs that went out of the end zone or on kickoffs that were not returned by the receiving team.  If that is factual, that means that the collisions that create concussions happen even on plays that are seemingly benign because there is no runback.

[Aside:  I have not reviewed the study in question here or its methodology or its “counting rules”; therefore, I am in no position to comment on the confidence one should put in the results.  Nevertheless, it is indeed logical for a football fan to conclude that kickoffs create more violent collisions that most other plays and that those plays might be somewhat more dangerous to participating players.]

I will say that if indeed the probability of a concussion goes up 500% for every kickoff in a game, then there is at least sufficient reason to consider the possibility of removing the kickoff from the game.  I am not suggesting a move that will begin an inexorable march toward the “sissification” of pro football; this is not something that will lead to an inevitable situation where football players take the field wearing tutus.  Thinking about the possibility that football might continue to exist without the kickoff as part of the ritual may be the common-sense thing to do.

Presumably, the NFL kickoff rule(s) will change this year – along with the “what is a catch rule” – and we will see if the changes make an innately violent game just a tad safer.  I suspect that it will not take long for special teams’ coaches to figure out ways to get around these rule changes in order to try to pin opponents back in their territory on kickoff plays.  When they do that, big kickoff collisions will be back even if these rule changes make them drop on a temporary basis.

Thanks to CBSSports.com, we are aware of a very strange story involving a high school superintendent in New Jersey.  Here is the first paragraph of that report:

“A high school superintendent in New Jersey is in deep doo-doo after being caught pooping on another high school’s football field. This wasn’t a one-time occurrence, either.”

Here is link to that story where you can read all of the gory details.  I think the best part of the saga is that the pooping perpetrator has been charged with “lewdness” and “littering”.  I guess the “littering” charge is there because the area does not have an “anti-dumping” ordinance…

Over in England, Arsene Wenger has been the coach/manager of Arsenal in the English Premiere League for more than 20 years now.  However, he will be replaced at the end of this season; Arsenal has 3 games remaining in the 2018 season.  The Gunners are in 6^th place in the 20-team English Premier League and have only a mathematical chance to advance and finish in 5^th place for the season.  Notwithstanding that place in the EPL Table, Arsene Wenger has been an icon in EPL football for the last two decades.

Wenger is one of the coaches who took over for a “legendary figure” at Arsenal and managed to succeed and hang around for a while – 22 years to be more precise.  Feelings and loyalties regarding EPL teams are even more intense than similar circumstances for teams here in the States.  Arsenal’s rivals did not take kindly to Wenger due to his success and his candor regarding opposing players or managers.  Nevertheless, his was a successful time at the helm for Arsenal and his successor will have large shoes to fill.  As of today, his record at Arsenal is 705 wins, 280 draws and 247 losses.  Even counting draws as unacceptable as losses, his winning percentage at Arsenal is .572.  Arsene Wenger is retiring at the age of 68.

Finally, here is a comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“All 22 ESPN experts predicted that Portland would beat New Orleans in their NBA playoff series – only to have the Pelicans sweep the Blazers in four.

“Even Brandon Belt’s 21-pitch at-bat didn’t produce that many foul tips.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This Saturday, two cultural events collide.  It is the first Saturday in May and that means it will be the day that they will run the Kentucky Derby.  It is also May 5^th and that means that there will be Cinco de Mayo celebrations everywhere.  And before anyone dares to ask, that calendar confluence does NOT mean that you can make mint juleps with Dos Equis beer in place of good bourbon.  I assume that readers here are all adults and so I will not get into any moralizing about how one must consume alcohol responsibly at a Cinco de Mayo celebration.  I take it as axiomatic that adults reading these rants know about such admonishments.

However, these are sports-related rants and so I will take a moment here to pass along some advice regarding the Kentucky Derby.  I am doing this 3 days in advance of the race so that anyone interested in serious handicapping will have some time to make that happen.

Here is what we know about the Derby on Saturday.  It will be a mile-and-a-quarter race for 3-year olds and there will almost assuredly be 20 horses in the starting gates.  There is an Also Eligible named for the field just in case one of the currently entered horses succumbs to an early scratch.  Handicapping a 20-horse field is a royal pain in the posterior and so I will try here to give racegoers and race bettors a head start.

I have divided the 20-horse field into 3 categories.  Here in Category 1 are the horses that I do not think have a chance to win the race on Saturday.  I say this knowing that the Derby has produced more than its share of longshot winners; these horses just do not seem to measure up to several other entries and so I would throw them out and not waste any more time looking for arcane clues in their past performances.  Here they are in alphabetical order:

• Blended Citizen  Morning Line = 50-1 (He is the “Also Eligible” horse)
• Enticed  Morning Line = 30-1
• Firenze Fire  Morning Line = 50-1
• Flameaway  Morning Line = 30-1
• Hofburg  Morning Line = 20-1
• Instilled Regard  Morning Line = 50-1
• Lone Sailor  Morning Line = 50-1
• My Boy Jack  Morning Line = 30-1
• Noble indy  Morning Line = 30-1
• Promises Fulfilled  Morning Line = 30-1

That cuts the field in half meaning you need to focus your handicapping energy and reasoning on only half of the field.  But I’ll make it even simpler.  Here are 4 horses in Category 2 who are better than the 10 listed above but who do not give me much confidence that they can win the race.  Maybe they can finish in the money; maybe they can fill out a Superfecta; maybe they will run “up the track”.  In any event, here are my Category 2 horses – – ones that I cannot throw out but ones that I do not particularly like:

• Bravazo  Morning Line = 50-1
• Combatant  Morning Line = 50-1
• Free Drop Billy  Morning Line = 30-1
• Mendelssohn  Morning Line = 5-1

To my mind, if you have subtracted these horses from consideration in the winners’ circle, that should leave you with 7 contenders.  That is a manageable number of horses to deal with in terms of serious handicapping.  Here are my Category 3 horses – the serious contenders to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby:

1. Audible  Morning Line = 8-1
2. Bolt d’Oro  Morning Line = 8-1
3. Good Magic  Morning Line = 12-1
4. Justify  Morning Line = 3-1  (Likely the race favorite at about 8-5)
5. Magnum Moon  Morning Line = 6-1
6. Solomini  Morning Line = 30-1
7. Vin Rosso  Morning Line = 12-1

Just for the halibut, here is my superfecta box for the race.  At the $1 level, it risks $24.  The horses in the box are Free Drop Billy, Justify, Magnum Moon and Solomini.  Whatever…

The 2019 MLB schedule is still very much up in the air – – except for one fact that has been nailed down.  The Oakland A’s will open “at home” against the Seattle Mariners but the game will be played in Tokyo.  That will give the A’s the attendance equivalent of two “home openers” – – the one in Tokyo and then the one in Oakland.  Given the A’s attendance woes over the past several years, having two “Home openers” cannot possibly hurt.

Finally, here are two comments from Brad Dickson – formerly with the Omaha World-Herald – on the importance of spring football in Nebraska:

“In the rest of the world the big story is Kim Jong Un saying he’s gonna disable his nuclear weapons. In Nebraska, however, the big story is a third team linebacker being moved to second team for today’s spring game.”

And …

“In Lincoln Saturday Earth Day will be observed by releasing 80,000 environmentally damaging red balloons into the air after someone scores a touchdown at a football game that doesn’t count.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A recent column by Joel Sherman in the NY Post contained some interesting baseball stats.

• In April 2018, MLB had its first month ever where there were more strikeouts in all the games (7,335) than there were base hits in all the games (6,992).
• The collective MLB batting average for April 2018 was .244 and Sherman points out that this is the lowest since 1972 – the year before the American League introduced the designated hitter.
• For April 2018, walks per game and hit batters per game are also at historically high levels.

From this data, Sherman summarizes:

“April concluded with 35.6 percent of plays ending in a strikeout, walk, homer or hit by pitch — hence, not in the field of play creating consistent action.”

Now, one could look at that data and that conclusion and say that the lack of “consistent action” is the reason that baseball is a game that attracts a significantly older clientele.  I have a problem with that logic on two fronts:

1. If “consistent action” was the sine qua non for widespread fandom among millennials, then the NHL should be leading the pack in terms of sports interest in the US – – and it is not.
2. Baseball is a game of action – – and it is a game of strategy and tactics.  The four “outcomes” noted by Joel Sherman above – strikeout, walk, homer or hit by pitch – all create new strategic and tactical challenges for both the offense and the defense.  Excitement comes to baseball games in many different flavors; when the ball is hit into the field of play, that creates excitement; those other outcomes from an at-bat can also produce baseball excitement.

This was an interesting column from Joel Sherman who is a well known and highly respected writer on baseball.  Here is a link to this column.  I suggest you may want to read it in its entirety.

The winter of 2017/2018 was a disappointing one for many MLB free agents; that state of affairs was widely reported as Spring Training began with lots of hopeful free agents left hanging out to dry.  Some folks even used the “C-Word” in hushed tones; you know … collusion.

I would like to point out here how three different teams are currently suffering under stifling guaranteed contracts that they doled out to free agents who were deep enough into their careers at the time of the signing to assure that there would be bleak times ahead for the teams and the players:

1. Chicago Cubs:   They signed Jason Heyward in 2016 to an 8-year contract worth $184M.  He will make $21.5M this year and then another $106M in the years up to the end of the 2023 season.  Heyward has been a .261/.344/.412 hitter over his 8+ years in MLB and that is hardly an eye-popping stat line.  In his first two years in Chicago, he did not even live up to that career standard.  I guess Cubs’ fans can take solace that he is still a really good defensive outfielder and they can hope that aspect of his game continues to obtain through 2023.
2. Detroit Tigers:  They signed Miguel Cabrera in 2016 as the Cubs did with Jason Heyward.  Cabrera’s deal is also for 8 years through 2023 and it was for a whopping $248M with options in 2024 and 2025.  Cabrera will make $30M this year; he will make $31M from 2019 through 2021; then, he will make $32M in 2022 and 2023.  And if the Tigers want to drop him in 2024, it will cost them an additional $8M to do that.  Last year, Cabrera hit .249 which was his worst year at the plate in his 15-year MLB career.  He is 35 years old now and will be closing in on 41 years old when the Tigers buy out the 2024 season for $8M.
3. LA Angels:  They signed Albert Pujols in 2012 to a 10-year contract worth $240M.  Pujols makes $27M this year and will make $28M next year, $29 M the year after that and $30M in the 2020 season.  In addition, he will collect a $3M bonus sometime this year when he collects his 3000^th MLB hit.  It will take a catastrophic event to prevent him from reaching that milestone this year since he had 2996 hits as of May 1^st.  In 2 of the last 3 full seasons, Pujols has hit less than .250; in half of his 6 full seasons with the Angels, he has hit fewer than 30 home runs for the year.

Every dime of those three contracts – and every other MLB contract signed – is fully guaranteed and in these three cases it is fair to say that the players have not been living up to the lofty expectations the clubs had for them as the ink was drying on the contract.  That is not a reason to eschew signing free agents; it is a reason for the clubs to think twice about how long a deal – and how much guaranteed money – they will offer to a player who is near the age of 30 at the time of the free agency

Finally, here are some random observations from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle:

“Scientists studying the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, which is four times the size of California, were surprised to find it contains three Trump hotels.

“The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is larger than France, but the Patch’s wine region can’t carry France’s wine region’s Jacques.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am not going to pretend to know with any degree of certainty greater than homeopathic concentration levels about the future successes/failures of QBs taken in the 2018 NFL Draft.  Nonetheless:

• How do you think Tyrod Taylor feels today having signed a free agent deal with the Browns only to see the Browns spend the overall #1 pick on Baker Mayfield?
• Similarly, how do you think Sam Bradford feels today having signed a free agent deal with the Cards only to see the Cards trade up to acquire Josh Rosen?

Notwithstanding any and all of the stress and agita that might arouse from such draft circumstances, there may indeed be more pressure on the incumbent QB in Baltimore than there is elsewhere among established starting QBs.  Joe Flacco is the starter for the Ravens; that is a fact and that is not going to change over the next several months so long as Flacco is not involved in a traffic incident that leaves him as a multiple amputee.  Ravens’ fans can take opposing positions on the “question” posed above; but I think that question is settled and unworthy of appeal.  Here is what the Ravens and Joe Flacco have to look forward to in training camp the year:

• Recall that the Ravens signed RG3 to an incentive laden contract merely 2 weeks ago.  RG3 can run; no one can dispute that statement.
• In the first round of the draft, the Ravens traded up to take Lamar Jackson.  That means they have two “running QBs” on the team behind Joe Flacco who is more mobile than an elm tree – – but not much more.

Forget any “training cam controversies”.  The Ravens are set up to create shouting matches among their own fanbase after every loss and maybe after some of their wins too.  It should be “fun and games” in Crabtown…

With the Draft in the rearview mirror, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have posted the futures bets for the 2018 season.  According to them, 19 of the 32 NFL teams will win 8 or more games this year. That can happen of course, but it requires a few teams to win a lot less than 8 games and the oddsmakers do not have any teams lower than 5 wins for the season.

Fear not; the oddsmakers have not lost their minds.  Remember, they are not posting numbers that necessarily reflect reality; they are posting odds that – hopefully from their point of view – will balance their books.  Fans of teams tend to be overly optimistic at this point of the season; and so, the sportsbooks taking futures bets want the win totals for 2018 to reflect that optimism.

The person who I refer to as the “Chief Logistics Officer” for our annual Las Vegas sojourn thinks it might be a winning strategy to bet all 32 teams UNDER their posted win totals at this point of the year.  Here is the link to those totals.  I will check this out and report back in December.

Switching to baseball, I realize that the season is only one month old.  Nevertheless, the Miami Marlins do not have the worst record in MLB at this point of the season despite their team-gutting activities over the winter.  In fact, at the start of May, there are 5 teams that would fall below the Marlins if MLB had a single ranking of teams.

• Marlins  10-18  Win percentage = .357
• Padres  10-20  Win percentage = .333
• White Sox  8-18  Win percentage = .308
• Orioles  8-20  Win percentage = .286
• Royals  7-21  Win percentage = .250
• Reds  7-22  Win percentage = .241

Is this the start of a “grand race to the bottom”?  Or, are there really 6 teams in MLB that are fielding the moral equivalent of a AAA team for the year in hopes of getting the first pick in the MLB Draft next year?

The Marlins project today to win 58 games; that means they will lose more than 100 games.  By projection, 6 teams in MLB will lose more than 100 games this year; even worse, the Reds project to win only 39 games for the season meaning they would lose 123 games – – clearly a modern record for failure.

Finally, here is a comment from syndicated columnist, Norman Chad, describing a truly frightening scenario:

“I  woke up in a dead sweat the other night from a dream in which I was the sideline reporter at a pantomime competition.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to talk about the NFL Draft at the outset today – – but I promise that I am not going to pretend to be able to “grade” any team’s draft even before any one of their draft picks has reported to training camp.  I prefer to look back at the draft from a different perspective.

There was something new about the 2018 NFL Draft.  It was covered by ESPN and by FOX.  You had a choice this year regarding which football gurus you preferred to listen to as you were waiting for the next pick to be announced.  As I bounced back and forth between coverages, I noted these observations:

• None of the experts on either channel was particularly adept at forecasting the upcoming pick.
• On FOX, Joel Klatt and Troy Aikman were on-field quarterbacks.  I found their commentary about the plethora of QBs selected early in the first round to be more interesting than the commentary on ESPN at the same time.
• Once the “QB-wave” had crested, Troy Aikman’s observations were pretty superficial.
• According to all the “analysts”/”gurus” on these programs, every player picked is super-talented and could become an All-Pro player down the line.

It is that last observation that grinds my gears more than just a little bit.  History tells everyone who pays attention that somewhere between a third and a half of the players picked in the first two rounds of any draft do not amount to a drab of donkey dung in the NFL.  Just because they are picked high in the draft does not mean they will do anything meritorious in the NFL.  I would greatly prefer to hear the “analysts”/”gurus” be a tad more critical/discerning in their exultation of each and every pick.  The fact that all these guys say that every pick is a great one and that the guy taken is going to be really good is lazy and sycophantic.

I have another over-arching view of the draft as it pertains to the New England Patriots.  For at least the last month, all that I have heard about the Pats is that there is discord in the locker room and that they will have to find a way to draft Tom Brady’s replacement in this draft because Brady is the leader of the locker room rebellion.  Well, maybe Brady is and maybe he isn’t; in fact, maybe there is a locker room rebellion and maybe there isn’t.  Looking back however, here is what I see:

1. The Pats were AFC Champions last year and played in the Super Bowl.
2. They achieved that stature without much of a contribution from their draft picks last year.  They had no picks in the first two rounds and both of their third-round picks sat out the season on IR.  Both are expected back this year meaning that a team that was good enough to get to the Super Bowl is going to add two high draft picks from last year who contributed nothing to the team getting that far.  Derek Rivers is a DE – – a position identified as a team need this year – – and Antonio Garcia is an OT – – another position identified as a team need this year.
3. In this year’s draft, the Pats added an offensive lineman from Georgia, a running back to replace Dion Lewis (lost to free agency), a highly regarded CB and as a result of a trade with the Niners, they landed Trent Brown who might be a long-term starter at OT.

[Aside:  I really like the Pats’ 7^th round pick of Braxton Barrios from Miami.  I think he may be the next Julian Edelman/Wes Welker/Danny Amendola for the Pats.]

There are plenty of “ifs” and “maybes” and “projections” in the commentary above; nevertheless, for a team that is coming off a Super Bowl level of performance in 2017, I would say that the future is not nearly as foreboding as many pundits/rumor-mongers would have you believe.

The other story that relates to the NFL Draft only because of its timing is that Jason Witten will be leaving the Dallas Cowboys to take the job with ESPN as the color analyst for Monday Night Football.  Congratulations to ESPN for “breaking the mold” and putting someone behind the microphone who did something other than play QB in the league.  From listening to Witten speak in interview settings, he is articulate and bright; if he can find a way to work harmoniously with play-by-play guy, Joe Tessitore, he should be just fine on MNF.  And from my perspective, “just fine” will be a monumental improvement over the departed – but not lamented – Jon Gruden.

Finally, Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times interprets recent medical findings to the NFL here:

“Adults should average no more than one alcoholic drink per day according to a new international study.

“With the obvious exception, say, of Browns’ fans.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday, I wrote at length about the College Basketball Commission’s recommendations to the NCAA.  Obviously, there was a lot of commentary on that subject around the country yesterday and I am glad to see that most writers/analysts recognize the situation for what it is:

1. There is widespread violation of the extant NCAA rules.
2. The current enforcement mechanism is inadequate.
3. Schools/teams have assessed that the risk of “capture” is worth taking.
4. The NCAA as constructed cannot fix this by itself.

The reason I am glad to see this sort of widespread recognition is simple.  If there is a problem to be solved, one must first acknowledge that there is a problem and then one must identify the scope of the problem.  It seems as if we have done that with regard to many of the ills of college basketball; now, if there is to be progress toward some solutions, there are identified goals to be achieved.  Things may actually improve…

There was another “basketball related” bit of news from earlier this week.  Lavar Ball had been uncharacteristically quiet for several weeks but emerged from his cocoon in Lithuania to announce that he is pulling his two sons off their Lithuanian team with two games left in that team’s season.  Lavar Ball had gotten crosswise with the Lithuanian coach particularly about the playing time allotted to the youngest son, LaMelo, and said that the most important thing now was to get the middle son, LiAngelo, ready for the upcoming NBA Draft.

[Aside:  Please tell me you are not surprised that Lavar Ball got crosswise with the Lithuanian coach.  Anyone surprised by that circumstance would probably also be surprised to learn that you do not need a brain transplant to change your mind.]

There was, however, a small angle to this story that was buried in one of the middle paragraphs.  This Lithuanian team has two games left in its season and it is facing relegation.  Yes, in Lithuania, they have a tiered system of basketball leagues and teams can be relegated and promoted just as teams can in soccer in England.  So, the question that flashed into my mind here was this:

• How is it possible that this team – with two future NBA stars on it – is anywhere near relegation in a secondary level Lithuanian league?

Forgetting the snarky remark, here is a serious thought about the Ball Family Odyssey.  It appears as if LiAngelo and LaMelo could run out of places to play basketball.  By playing for a pro team in Lithuania, neither will be eligible for NCAA competition; LaMelo is still in high school – nominally home-schooled – and his professional exposure would make him ineligible at that level too.  Reports say that LiAngelo is not highly regarded as an NBA prospect meaning that his future would be in the G-League or in another overseas venue.  However, the recent rupture with the Lithuanian team/coach might constrain the demand for the services of the Ball Brothers.

You may recall that Cubs’ infielder, Anthony Rizzo, made news recently by saying that there are too many MLB games and that there should be a shorter season which would mean pay cuts for the players.  If you look at the weather conditions that have impinged on MLB so far this season, you would probably agree that things could be improved.  After Rizzo’s remarks and the initial flurry of comments about his remarks had calmed down a bit, there was a thoughtful column at espn.com written by Bradford Doolittle about cutting the MLB season back to 154 games.  Here is the link to that column; I suggest you read it in its entirety.

It would seem as if reducing the schedule by 8 games would not do a lot to shorten the season – and presumably play baseball in better weather conditions.  However, the idea here is to mix in double-headers with the 154-game season to reduce the time from Opening Day until the end of the World Series.  [Currently, the MLB season could be as long as 187 days.]  Here is one of the important suggestions in this column:

“By shortening the regular season, and mixing in at least one doubleheader per team per month — always in advance of an off day — we could easily avoid these ultra-early starts at the beginning, and kill the specter of November baseball at the end.”

I must admit that until I read this column, I did not know of Bradford Doolittle or his work.  I am going to be alert for his byline in the future; he seems to be a passionate baseball fan who is also very analytical.

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Professional bowling, an ESPN staple since the network’s founding in 1979, is moving to Fox for a ‘multi-year, multi-platform’ deal beginning in 2019.

“Things got so quiet around the ESPN studios when the news was announced that you could’ve heard . . . nah, too easy.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A couple of days ago, the NY Post reported that Mike Francessa – of Mike and the Mad Dog fame – wants “desperately” to return to the radio and that a return to WFAN in NY is possible.  I have exactly no reason to doubt this report or to put any faith in it; I take it for what it says.

Mike Francessa and his former radio co-host Chris “Mad Dog” Russo are significant cultural figures.  WFAN was the first 24-hour all-sports radio station in the country; it hit the airwaves in 1987.  Imus in the Morning got good ratings for the station but the show that solidified the sports-radio identity for the station began in 1989 when Mike and the Mad Dog took over the afternoon programming.  Their success led to the overall success of WFAN and that spawned the myriad sports-radio stations that now populate just about every major market in the US.

Francessa and Russo had a messy split several years ago and Francessa retired last year after hosting the afternoon show as a solo act for several years.  In place of Mike and the Mad Dog – and later Francessa’s solo act – WFAN has a trio of hosts for the afternoon drive slot.  I have not been to NYC recently, but I have taken some time to tune into that program over the Internet just because I was curious to see how the new hosts would follow this iconic act.

• Spoiler alert:  It is not pretty.

The new hosts are Chris Carlin, Maggie Gray and Bart Scott.  The best thing I can say about this trio is that they minimize the time that they talk over one another on the air.  Here is my assessment based on listening for a total of 7 or 8 hours in bits and pieces:

• Chris Carlin:  He is the adult in the room, but he does not seem to bring any personal passion to the program.  He is facile with stats and trends, but he does not come across as a guy who is on top of “sports stuff”.
• Maggie Gray:  She is obviously an accomplished broadcaster, but I have no idea why she is part of this program team.  Other than the fact that she possesses a doubled-X set of chromosomes …
• Bart Scott:  Let me channel the late Dick Enberg here; Oh my!  There is a style of radio known as “Easy Listening”; Bart Scott defines the genre of “Painful Listening”.  During one of my listening segments, I was starting to root for him to incur a virus that would bring on laryngitis.

Mike and the Mad Dog was vintage sports radio; it was appointment listening.  When Francessa went solo, the show was still good – – but not as good as when he and Russo were behind the microphone.  The current afternoon programming simply recalls the Biblical verse:

“How the mighty have fallen …”

The NFL Draft starts tomorrow night.  In this morning’s Washington Post, there is evidence that every story about the ramp-up to the draft has been written and there is no more to say.  On the front of the sports section, there is this headline:

“Redskins lay out plans as NFL draft approaches”

The sub-head for that article says:

“[Doug] Williams says selecting running back early, trading down on table”

I hope you agree that there is nothing in those headlines that would draw your interest at this late stage of draft prep.  Of course, the team is finalizing its plans; of course, the Skins would have to consider taking a running back; of course, they would consider trading down depending on the circumstances.  There is no indication of any “news” in this report.

Then, on page 3 of the sports section – after the jump – here is the next headline for that article:

“Williams says available players, other teams’ offers will dictate Redskins’ course”

And in an even semi-rational world, how might it be otherwise?

Fortunately, the draft is tomorrow night; and that means we can shift the focus from the now threadbare fabric of what teams will do in the future as the draft unfolds and begin the next meaningless exercise of giving grades to various teams’ draft hauls before any of the draftees ever sets foot on a practice field.

One quick note about the NBA Playoffs…  I watched most of the fourth game of the Jazz/Thunder series and have this to say:

1. The Jazz are fun to watch.  They move the ball on offense and they play aggressively on defense.
2. Donovan Mitchell has made the transition from college basketball to NBA basketball in his one-year in the league.
3. Ricky Rubio still can’t shoot – – but he controls the offensive flow of the game for the Jazz.

Finally, since I mentioned the Utah Jazz above, let me close with an item from Brad Rock’s column, Rock On! in the Deseret News:

“International soccer star Zlatan Ibrahimovic is now with the L.A. Galaxy — and he wants everyone to appreciate it.

“The Swedish striker bought a full-page ad in the Los Angeles Times that said: ‘Dear Los Angeles, You’re welcome.’

“LeBron James is thinking, ‘Rats! Stole my line’.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………