Category: Daily Rants

Chuck Knox passed away over the weekend.  He had very successful stints as the head coach of the Rams, Seahawks and Bills; in fact, he was named Coach of the Year while coaching each of those three teams and he is the only coach in NFL history to achieve that honor with three different franchises.  His “conservative”/ “smash-mouth” offensive philosophy earned him the nickname “Ground Chuck”.

Rest in peace, Chuck Knox…

The Stanley Cup playoffs and the NBA playoffs are in full swing.  Meanwhile, the MLB season is gathering momentum and there are some interesting things to note about MLB so far this year.

On the negative side:

• The Cleveland Indians were 20-19 as of yesterday; that record put them in first place in the AL Central.  If the Indians were in the AL East, they would be in 4^th place; if the Indians were in the AL West, they would be in 4^th place.  The deal here is that everyone else in the AL Central is below .500 – – going all the way down to the Royals and White Sox whose winning percentages are bordering on embarrassing.
• The LA Dodgers were 16-24 as of yesterday; that put them squarely in 4^th place in the NL West.  Yes, I know that the Dodgers have been wracked by a tsunami of injuries to their starting position players and to there starting pitchers.  Nevertheless, playing on a pace that would win only 65 games for the entire season is a shock for that franchise; and being swept in a series by the Reds – – probably the worst team in MLB in 2018 – – is embarrassing.  I fully expect the team to far surpass a 65-win total for 2018, but their record so far is both putrid and unexpected.

Sounding a nostalgic baseball moment:

• Rafael Palmiero is 53 years old and he said earlier this year that he wanted to come back from retirement and play in the majors.  That did not happen but Palmiero did achieve something interesting last week.  He signed on with the Cleburne Railroaders – an independent team in the American Association – and the team also signed Palmiero’s son, Patrick.  Raffy will play first base; Patrick will play third-base.  Having a father/son tandem on a single team does not happen every year.  Here is a link to more on this situation.

Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week.  I have wondered about this topic since the time as a kid when I saw the “Ted Williams Shift”:

“It’s disappointing – and should frustrate fans – that so few big-league hitters attempt to beat infield over-shifts by going the other way with the pitch. Is this stubbornness some sort of macho thing? I suspect so. But are managers strictly prohibited from instructing batters to take what the defense gives them? Whatever’s happening, the game isn’t the same.”

What ever happened to the simplistic – – but obviously effective – – hitting philosophy attributed to Wee Willie Keeler who managed to bat .341 over a 19-year career:

“I hit ‘em where they ain’t.”

Could it be that the success of modern analytics in baseball is dependent to some extent on player and managerial stubbornness?

Finally, here are comments from two different sources regarding college football recruits who are “large of size”:

“The Minnesota Golden Gophers football team got a commitment from 6-8, 395-pound Australian lineman Daniel Faalele. Minnesota has lakes that are smaller.”  [Brad Dickson, formerly of the Omaha World Herald]

And …

“Kiyaunta Goodwin of Louisville, KY. Is 6 feet seven, weighs 370 pounds, wears size-18 shoes, leg presses 1000 pounds, bench presses 315, displays uncanny agility, likes art music and robotics, and has a football offer from Georgia in his pocket according to Bleacher Report.

“Oh and did we mention that he’s only 14 years old and an eighth-grader?”  [Dwight Perry, Seattle Times]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Twenty-two years ago, Lions’ head coach, Matt Patricia, was still in college; he and a friend were on Spring Break in Texas.  Out of that excursion came an indictment against Patricia for sexual assault; he was never tried, and the charges were dropped.  Patricia has been in the coaching business since his college days at Rensselaer and this is seemingly the first time this fact has been brought to light.  In the current environment of the MeToo movement, this allegation cannot be ignored as something from the dim, dark past that has no relevance today.  At the same time, it is important to ask the right questions here and to focus on what to do now.

The Detroit Lions – and the New England Patriots before them – assert that they knew nothing of this indictment until this week.  If those assertions are truthful, it is difficult to assign any blame to either team for having Patricia as part of their organization.  I think it is more appropriate to ask at this time a different set of questions:

• Who does the background checks as part of the vetting process for the Lions and the Patriots?  Do other NFL teams also use the same folks to do background checks for them?
• How did these investigators miss this indictment – which is a matter of public record?  Or, did they find it and choose not to report it to the teams in question here?  If that is the case, why did they do that?

In 2018, there is no chance that this sort of situation will be ignored.  For that reason, I think it is important to figure out first if the Lions – and the Pats before them – were ever aware of this accusation. Here is why:

• If either – or both – knew about this and hired Patricia anyway, it is fair to ask the teams about their “personnel evaluation processes”.  What factors led the team(s) to believe that this blemish on Patricia’s record could be overlooked?
• If, however, neither team was made aware of the indictment, the focus of the questioning must be in the vetting processes themselves and the people/organizations that provide the vetting data to the Lions, Patriots and potentially to other NFL franchises.
• If Joe Flabeetz was the person responsible for doing the background investigation on Matt Patricia when he was up for the Lions’ head coaching job, it would be appropriate and important to find out what Joe Flabeetz did and did not do in that investigation.  For example, it may be standard practice for Joe Flabeetz and his organization to ignore arrests/indictments that never go to trial even when they find them.  That practice would resonate with the concept of “innocent until proven guilty” but it would not play so well with the idea of probing the true character of the potential employee.

I am not an attorney, so I have no idea if the alleged victim in this matter can re-activate these charges 22 years after the fact.  There are statutes of limitations in American jurisprudence, but I have no idea how “aggravated sexual assault” charges are covered by such statutes in the State of Texas.  I mention this not because I think breathing life back into this matter is a good idea; rather, I bring it up because without a trial, it will be next to impossible to ascertain the facts of the situation.  And without the facts, it will be difficult to figure out what questions need to be answered and by whom.

There is another NFL-related situation that could well wind up in the legal world.  Last week, the NFL issued a 4-game suspension to Saints’ RB, Mark Ingram, for violation of the league’s PED policy.  Ingram has categorically denied the situation saying that what he tested positive for is something that is permissible in the NFL with an exemption.  I do not know what the substance involved here is nor am I aware of the NFL’s “exemption rules” here.  I presume what Ingram is talking about here is that there are medical conditions that require as treatment the administration of a drug/medicine that will trigger a reaction in the standardized NFL drug test.  With prior notification from the doctor – and probably concurrence by someone in the league offices – a “failed test” for this player and that substance can be waived.

Regardless of how this situation works, Mark Ingram is pressing his case that he did not fail a PED test and that this suspension is unwarranted.  His explanation/excuse for the failed test is a lot more satisfying to me than the much more standard explanation that the failed test was due to a tainted supplement that was taken innocently and ignorantly.  Here is a statement from one of Mark Ingram’s representatives on the matter:

“At the end of the 2017 season, as a result of an NFL mandated drug test, Mark Ingram tested positive for a substance that was not a performance-enhancing substance, but a substance in fact permissible with the proper use exemption with the NFL. He has vigorously challenged the test results through the arbitration process. The arbitrator’s Opinion is due on or before Wednesday, May 16. Upon having the opportunity to review the arbitrator’s opinion, we will explore what further options are needed.”

The outcome of this matter could be very interesting…

Finally, here is a comment from syndicated columnist, Norman Chad, on the rebirth of the XFL:

“I can’t wait for the XFL to return – that’s another three hours a week I can go to Walden Pond with a bag of Fritos.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday, the NY Mets turned in a wrong batting order card to the umpires and batted out of turn leading to a player who actually hit a double in his “at-bat” being called out and sent to the dugout for batting out of order.  The MLB rules governing this sort of thing are explicit and clear; there was no misinterpretation by the umpires here.  I coached a Little League team for ONE season back when Dante’s Inferno was on the “New Releases List”.  Even then, I knew not to screw up that aspect of the game.  Here is a link to the CBSSports.com report on this matter.

As noted in that report, the Mets had started the season at a torrid 12-2 but have fallen on hard times since then.  After yesterday’s loss – the game involving the batting out of order incident – the Mets’ record stands at 18-16 which is a whole lot worse than 12-2.  The Mets have also lost Jacob deGrom to the IR list and have traded Matt Harvey after he refused a team decision to send him to the minor leagues.   Even for a team in NYC, the Mets have packed a season’s worth of drama into a single 5 week stretch of the season.

In other MLB news, Ichiro has left the active roster for the Mariners – presumably ending his MLB career as a player – and has taken up a job in the Mariners’ front office.  Ichiro is 44 years old and it appears as if Father Time has called him into a position off the field of play.

I have said several times in the past that Ichiro was one of the players in MLB that I would want to pay to see “live-and-in-person” when he came to my town to perform.  Here are a couple of his accomplishments:

• He amassed more than 3000 base hits in his MLB career and that feat is magnified because Ichiro did not play in MLB until age 27.
• He broke a long-standing record in MLB when he collected 262 hits in a single season.  Previously, the record was 256 hits by George Sisler.

In the last week, Albert Pujols collected his 3,000^th hit – and a $3M bonus for achieving that milestone.  In addition to being a member of the three-thousand-hit-club, here are some of Pujols’ other career achievements:

• He has hit 620 HRs in his career as of this morning.
• He has been on the All-Star team 10 times.
• He has been the MVP in 3 different seasons.

If you look at active players and ask who among them might be next to reach the 3000-hit club, the answer is Miguel Cabrera.  Here are Cabrera’s stats:

• He is 35 years old as of today.
• He has collected 2666 hits as of today.
• Last year was the worst year of his 16-year MLB career when he only managed to get 117 hits.
• If he were to continue at that slow pace at the plate, he would need less than three more years to reach 3000 hits.  It could happen in late 2019 if he returns to his earlier performance levels; barring major injury, it will happen sometime in the 2020 season.
• By the way, Cabrera is also likely to collect 500 HRs over his career.  AS of this morning he has hit 465 HRs.

In basketball news, I want you to juxtapose these two headlines from columns on the Internet yesterday:

“Dwayne Casey voted Coach of the Year by peers”

And…

“Report:  Raptors leaning toward head coaching change”

If that is not enough to cause you to shake your head in wonderment, consider that Brad Stevens did not get a single vote from among his peers in the NBA as the Coach of the Year.  Seriously…

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“The Metropolitan King County Council approved a ban on vaping and chewing tobacco in sports facilities — particularly the Mariners’ Safeco Field — effective May 19.

“In other words, Skoal’s out for the summer.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Last week’s Kentucky Derby provided a race with some historic happenings.  It also provided a historically high handle for wagering.

• The Derby itself attracted $148M in total bets.
• The entire card for Derby Day was $223.7M according to The Daily Racing Form which is an authoritative source on matters such as this.

The handle on US horse racing has increased this year and the common interpretation for this is that new tax rules reduce the number of winning wagers that are automatically reported to the IRS and for which a portion of the winnings will be withheld immediately.  I certainly cannot offer any informed opinion on that.  I would also point out that the number of races at tracks in the US has also declined meaning that there are possibly more races with more betting interest available to hose players.  Whatever the cause, it appears that the racing industry is experiencing an uptick in its fundamental economics.

The other datum about Derby Day that was interesting to me was that attendance at Churchill Downs was announced as 157,813.  That was the eighth largest attendance in Derby history and the weather had to be one of the eight worst in Derby history.

In another sport, there are reports of possible changes based on fundamental economics there.  Reuters reported on Monday that NASCAR may be up for sale and this potential decision by the France family – the folks who own NASCAR – may be in response to:

“… an aging fan base, stricter safety rules and a competitive media landscape that have weighed on its popularity and made it less attractive to advertisers and sponsors.”

Reuters also says that the France family has retained Goldman Sachs to look for deals here but that things are still in a very preliminary/exploratory stage.  The “aging fan base” has been a drag on NASCAR because younger fans – particularly millennials – have not shown a great affinity for NASCAR meaning that TV ratings have dropped significantly from previous high levels.  This has reduced revenues meaning that networks and media distributors are reluctant to continue to pay a lot for TV rights fees.  Here is a link to the Reuters report.

Every once in a while, I run across a story that makes me think to myself:

• There is dumb, and there is stupid … and then there is this.

A couple of weeks ago, Packers’ WR, Trevor Davis, got himself arrested.  He was not driving drunk or strung out on some sort of recreational drug; he was not involved in any sort of domestic violence; he was not brandishing a weapon.  Here is what allegedly happened.

• Trevor Davis and a female traveling companion were at Los Angeles International Airport evidently checking in for a flight on Hawaiian Airlines.
• When he was asked the standard suite of security questions at the baggage check counter, he turned to his traveling companion and allegedly asked her, “Did you remember to pack the explosives?”
• That is a stupid thing to do but his traveling companion took it to a new level when she allegedly answered, “Yes.”
• The attendant at the baggage check counter did not respond to this as light-hearted banter or anything of the sort; she called airport security.
• Airport security folks take nothing of this sort lightly; when they arrived, they arrested Trevor Davis.  He was booked and then released because in fact he did not have any explosives in his baggage.

Maybe this is the reason that NFL teams continue to administer the Wonderlic test to potential draftees/signees?  That was a monumentally stupid thing for Davis to have done.

Finally, here is a comment from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle about a recent nominee to President Trump’s new President’s Council on Sports, Fitness and Nutrition:

“Bill Belichick. Because nothing screams healthy lifestyle like Bill Belichick.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I do not spend a lot of time talking about the NHL here for the simple reason that I do not believe that I understand any of the subtleties of ice hockey better than the average/casual viewer.  That is not to say that I do not enjoy watching ice hockey because, in particular, I very much enjoy watching the Stanley Cup playoffs.  This year there is a great storyline that has developed around the Las Vegas Golden Knights.

If ever there were a “Cinderella Hockey Team”, the Knights must fit that mold.  This is the first year of existence for the franchise; this is a team created from the culls of every other team in the league.  By expectation, this team should have been eliminated from playoff consideration sometime around Christmas; nevertheless, the Knights have just won the second round of the playoffs in the Western Conference and are poised to take a shot at being in the Stanley Cup Finals.

There have been plenty of Cinderella stories in sports, but none are quite like the Golden Knights:

• The Whiz Kids of 1950 were a shock to the baseball world.  A Phillies team that had been the doormat of the National League for the last 25-30 years suddenly stood up on its hind legs and won the NL pennant.  Nevertheless, the Phillies had been a franchise that was in existence for about 70 years at the time; there were not Johnny-come-latelies.
• The Miracle Mets of the late 60s won the World Series with a frantic rally at the end of the regular season and a continues run of inspired play in the post-season.  The Mets were close to an expansion team; they had been in existence for less than a decade.  However, unlike the golden Knights, the Mets’ inaugural season was a disaster.  In 1962, the Mets as a team posted a record of 40-120; it is a modern standard of futility.
• A couple of years ago, Leicester City shocked the English football world and won the English Premier League.  Prior to the start of the season, betting shops in England gave 5,000-1 odds that Leicester would not do that – – but they did.

Those three teams provided huge surprises in the sports world – – but I do not think that any of their exploits were as surprising as what the Golden Knights have done so far this year.

Speaking of sports in the playoffs, I feel compelled to say something about the TV coverage of the NBA Playoffs and it is a disturbing trend.  I think this began with the coverage of/fascination with Jack Nicholson sitting courtside at Laker games; he was a celebrity and took an interest in NBA games in LA and drew media attention.  Around the same time, the Knicks were the team that had Spike Lee at courtside for every one of their games.  Unlike Nicholson, he did not just watch the games; he was animated in his fandom in his courtside seat.  The TV directors loved to catch him in his exuberance.

This fascination has gotten out of hand.  Now we have far too much coverage of Drake at courtside during Raptors’ games and/or Kevin Hart during Sixers’ games and/or Rob Riggle at any game anywhere.  [Aside:  I have never found Rob Riggle to be funny; and to me, there is nothing more painful to endure than someone trying to be funny when he/she is absolutely not funny.]

• Memo to NBA Playoff TV Directors:  The product you are putting on the air to sell to the public involves athletes on the court and not celebrities – – or in some cases marginal celebs – – who show up courtside as much to be seen there as to watch the game itself.  Dial back that coverage more than just a little bit.

Now, if Queen Elizabeth were to show up at a game in a courtside seat, that would be newsworthy, and you should let us know about it – briefly.  Other than that …

If my following of the latest in NFL contract news is correct, the four highest players in the NFL for now are:

• Matthew Stafford – – $27M next year
• Jimmy Garoppolo – – $27.5M next year
• Kirk Cousins – – $28M next year
• Matt Ryan – – $30M next year.

I do not begrudge any of them even a single nickel of their contracts, but I do have to point out that none of them has won anything of any consequence in any of their careers.  Yes, I know that Matt Ryan led the Falcons to a Super Bowl, but I contend that the total collapse of the Falcons in that game surrendering the 28-3 lead they had in the second half of the game negated the fact that they were in the game in the first place.  Expectations for these four gentlemen are – and ought to be sky-high.

Finally, Dwight Perry had this comment in the Seattle Times regarding another instance where the world of sports intersected the world of politics:

“Texas Wesleyan baseball coach Mike Jeffcoat nixed a recruit from Colorado because that state’s ‘liberal politicians’ legalized marijuana use, so the school fired him.

“Or as eye-for-an-eye advocates prefer to frame it, he weeded himself out.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

One of the major stories from last week involved the cheerleaders for the Washington Skins.  According to several former cheerleaders as reported in the New York Times, there was a trip to Costa Rica in 2012 where the team invited some of its big-spending suite purchasers and other sponsors to come along as the cheerleaders were there to do a photoshoot for a calendar.  At least some of the posed shots were topless; at least one allegedly involved only body paint for clothing; the assertion is that the big-spenders and the sponsors – – all males – – were invited to look on and watch those proceedings.  Then there were social events in the evenings and the cheerleaders were asked to accompany/escort the men to those events although all agree that there was no sexual angle to any of this.

Obviously, there are counter-stories from others on this trip – – including the cheerleaders’ leader back then.  However, the official statement(s) from the team were unabashedly tone deaf – as if one could expect anything else from the folks who run that team.

• They started out on the right foot.  Team President, Bruce Allen, said that they were doing a full investigation.  However, he could not stop there; he had to add that, “We’ve heard very different first-hand accounts that directly contradict many of the details of the May 2 article [in the New York Times.”   Even if you have heard such things, why not keep your mouth shut until you are finished with your full investigation that you said was ongoing?
• The momentum today is clearly in favor of women speaking out about prior incidences where they were harassed – or worse – in the workplace.  How could the Skins’ communication folks not recognize that this was not the time to cast aspersions on the credibility of these team employees without an investigation?
• For the record, Bruce Allen is the president of an NFL franchise only because he is the son of a former great coach in the NFL.  Basically, he won the sperm lottery
• Given the “difficulties” that the NFL has had with cheerleaders for various other teams, the league needed this pimple to burst like New Orleans needs a return visit from Katrina.

I await the results of the “full investigation” that Bruce Allen asserted was ongoing.  I will be interested to see how “thorough” it is made to appear to be.  I will withhold comments until then.  However, you should read the column written by Jerry Brewer in the Washington Post last week as this story broke.  Here is the link; you should read it in its entirety.

I have said for years that the NFL Combine is the most over-hyped part of the NFL year.  I still cannot understand why anyone would watch this on TV as a bunch of players go though close-to-meaningless drills that are timed and measured.  Even worse, there are people who pay good money to sit and watch this stuff; it is less interesting than a track meet because at a track meet all the events actually involve real competition with winners and losers.

The point about over-hype was driven home to me when I read a report over the weekend saying that the NFL invited 334 players to participate in this year’s Combine.  There are 7 rounds and 32 teams, so there are only 224 picks to be made in the draft; when you throw in some compensatory picks and you wind up with 256 selections in this year’s draft.  So, even if every player taken this year had been one of the Combine invitees, there would have been 78 players on the outside looking in.  However, there were 117 Combine attendees who never “got the call” from an NFL team over the 3 days of the Draft.

That means that 35% of the guys that the league thought highly enough of to offer an invitation were of no interest to any of the teams in the league.  Even the so called “insiders” and “professionals” are not in the know on this kind of stuff.  Keep this in mind next year when you are tempted to tune in to see how high an offensive lineman can jump…

Finally, here is a comment from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot about the TV coverage of the Kentucky Derby:

“TV Timeout:  Because it is unavoidable, NBC’s five hours of Kentucky Derby coverage will again include fawning tableaus of the horsey set’s one-percenters.  That and also stupid hats.  You know, the stuff with which the masses can easily identify.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL Competition Committee has been at work trying to make kickoffs safer in NFL games.  There are myriad aspects to their suggested changes in what sort of blocking will be permissible and how formations for the kicking team will be regulated.  You can find descriptions of the proposed changes in this report by Mark Maske in the Washington Post.  It seems as if the Competition Committee recognizes that kickoffs are problematic regarding “player safety” but the Committee wants to try to legislate ways to keep kickoffs in the game.

There was a recent study cited by ESPN which concluded that kickoffs in the NFL were 5 times more dangerous to players in terms of concussions.  Moreover, the study also found that many of the concussions incurred on kickoffs that went out of the end zone or on kickoffs that were not returned by the receiving team.  If that is factual, that means that the collisions that create concussions happen even on plays that are seemingly benign because there is no runback.

[Aside:  I have not reviewed the study in question here or its methodology or its “counting rules”; therefore, I am in no position to comment on the confidence one should put in the results.  Nevertheless, it is indeed logical for a football fan to conclude that kickoffs create more violent collisions that most other plays and that those plays might be somewhat more dangerous to participating players.]

I will say that if indeed the probability of a concussion goes up 500% for every kickoff in a game, then there is at least sufficient reason to consider the possibility of removing the kickoff from the game.  I am not suggesting a move that will begin an inexorable march toward the “sissification” of pro football; this is not something that will lead to an inevitable situation where football players take the field wearing tutus.  Thinking about the possibility that football might continue to exist without the kickoff as part of the ritual may be the common-sense thing to do.

Presumably, the NFL kickoff rule(s) will change this year – along with the “what is a catch rule” – and we will see if the changes make an innately violent game just a tad safer.  I suspect that it will not take long for special teams’ coaches to figure out ways to get around these rule changes in order to try to pin opponents back in their territory on kickoff plays.  When they do that, big kickoff collisions will be back even if these rule changes make them drop on a temporary basis.

Thanks to CBSSports.com, we are aware of a very strange story involving a high school superintendent in New Jersey.  Here is the first paragraph of that report:

“A high school superintendent in New Jersey is in deep doo-doo after being caught pooping on another high school’s football field. This wasn’t a one-time occurrence, either.”

Here is link to that story where you can read all of the gory details.  I think the best part of the saga is that the pooping perpetrator has been charged with “lewdness” and “littering”.  I guess the “littering” charge is there because the area does not have an “anti-dumping” ordinance…

Over in England, Arsene Wenger has been the coach/manager of Arsenal in the English Premiere League for more than 20 years now.  However, he will be replaced at the end of this season; Arsenal has 3 games remaining in the 2018 season.  The Gunners are in 6^th place in the 20-team English Premier League and have only a mathematical chance to advance and finish in 5^th place for the season.  Notwithstanding that place in the EPL Table, Arsene Wenger has been an icon in EPL football for the last two decades.

Wenger is one of the coaches who took over for a “legendary figure” at Arsenal and managed to succeed and hang around for a while – 22 years to be more precise.  Feelings and loyalties regarding EPL teams are even more intense than similar circumstances for teams here in the States.  Arsenal’s rivals did not take kindly to Wenger due to his success and his candor regarding opposing players or managers.  Nevertheless, his was a successful time at the helm for Arsenal and his successor will have large shoes to fill.  As of today, his record at Arsenal is 705 wins, 280 draws and 247 losses.  Even counting draws as unacceptable as losses, his winning percentage at Arsenal is .572.  Arsene Wenger is retiring at the age of 68.

Finally, here is a comment from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“All 22 ESPN experts predicted that Portland would beat New Orleans in their NBA playoff series – only to have the Pelicans sweep the Blazers in four.

“Even Brandon Belt’s 21-pitch at-bat didn’t produce that many foul tips.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This Saturday, two cultural events collide.  It is the first Saturday in May and that means it will be the day that they will run the Kentucky Derby.  It is also May 5^th and that means that there will be Cinco de Mayo celebrations everywhere.  And before anyone dares to ask, that calendar confluence does NOT mean that you can make mint juleps with Dos Equis beer in place of good bourbon.  I assume that readers here are all adults and so I will not get into any moralizing about how one must consume alcohol responsibly at a Cinco de Mayo celebration.  I take it as axiomatic that adults reading these rants know about such admonishments.

However, these are sports-related rants and so I will take a moment here to pass along some advice regarding the Kentucky Derby.  I am doing this 3 days in advance of the race so that anyone interested in serious handicapping will have some time to make that happen.

Here is what we know about the Derby on Saturday.  It will be a mile-and-a-quarter race for 3-year olds and there will almost assuredly be 20 horses in the starting gates.  There is an Also Eligible named for the field just in case one of the currently entered horses succumbs to an early scratch.  Handicapping a 20-horse field is a royal pain in the posterior and so I will try here to give racegoers and race bettors a head start.

I have divided the 20-horse field into 3 categories.  Here in Category 1 are the horses that I do not think have a chance to win the race on Saturday.  I say this knowing that the Derby has produced more than its share of longshot winners; these horses just do not seem to measure up to several other entries and so I would throw them out and not waste any more time looking for arcane clues in their past performances.  Here they are in alphabetical order:

• Blended Citizen  Morning Line = 50-1 (He is the “Also Eligible” horse)
• Enticed  Morning Line = 30-1
• Firenze Fire  Morning Line = 50-1
• Flameaway  Morning Line = 30-1
• Hofburg  Morning Line = 20-1
• Instilled Regard  Morning Line = 50-1
• Lone Sailor  Morning Line = 50-1
• My Boy Jack  Morning Line = 30-1
• Noble indy  Morning Line = 30-1
• Promises Fulfilled  Morning Line = 30-1

That cuts the field in half meaning you need to focus your handicapping energy and reasoning on only half of the field.  But I’ll make it even simpler.  Here are 4 horses in Category 2 who are better than the 10 listed above but who do not give me much confidence that they can win the race.  Maybe they can finish in the money; maybe they can fill out a Superfecta; maybe they will run “up the track”.  In any event, here are my Category 2 horses – – ones that I cannot throw out but ones that I do not particularly like:

• Bravazo  Morning Line = 50-1
• Combatant  Morning Line = 50-1
• Free Drop Billy  Morning Line = 30-1
• Mendelssohn  Morning Line = 5-1

To my mind, if you have subtracted these horses from consideration in the winners’ circle, that should leave you with 7 contenders.  That is a manageable number of horses to deal with in terms of serious handicapping.  Here are my Category 3 horses – the serious contenders to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby:

1. Audible  Morning Line = 8-1
2. Bolt d’Oro  Morning Line = 8-1
3. Good Magic  Morning Line = 12-1
4. Justify  Morning Line = 3-1  (Likely the race favorite at about 8-5)
5. Magnum Moon  Morning Line = 6-1
6. Solomini  Morning Line = 30-1
7. Vin Rosso  Morning Line = 12-1

Just for the halibut, here is my superfecta box for the race.  At the $1 level, it risks $24.  The horses in the box are Free Drop Billy, Justify, Magnum Moon and Solomini.  Whatever…

The 2019 MLB schedule is still very much up in the air – – except for one fact that has been nailed down.  The Oakland A’s will open “at home” against the Seattle Mariners but the game will be played in Tokyo.  That will give the A’s the attendance equivalent of two “home openers” – – the one in Tokyo and then the one in Oakland.  Given the A’s attendance woes over the past several years, having two “Home openers” cannot possibly hurt.

Finally, here are two comments from Brad Dickson – formerly with the Omaha World-Herald – on the importance of spring football in Nebraska:

“In the rest of the world the big story is Kim Jong Un saying he’s gonna disable his nuclear weapons. In Nebraska, however, the big story is a third team linebacker being moved to second team for today’s spring game.”

And …

“In Lincoln Saturday Earth Day will be observed by releasing 80,000 environmentally damaging red balloons into the air after someone scores a touchdown at a football game that doesn’t count.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A recent column by Joel Sherman in the NY Post contained some interesting baseball stats.

• In April 2018, MLB had its first month ever where there were more strikeouts in all the games (7,335) than there were base hits in all the games (6,992).
• The collective MLB batting average for April 2018 was .244 and Sherman points out that this is the lowest since 1972 – the year before the American League introduced the designated hitter.
• For April 2018, walks per game and hit batters per game are also at historically high levels.

From this data, Sherman summarizes:

“April concluded with 35.6 percent of plays ending in a strikeout, walk, homer or hit by pitch — hence, not in the field of play creating consistent action.”

Now, one could look at that data and that conclusion and say that the lack of “consistent action” is the reason that baseball is a game that attracts a significantly older clientele.  I have a problem with that logic on two fronts:

1. If “consistent action” was the sine qua non for widespread fandom among millennials, then the NHL should be leading the pack in terms of sports interest in the US – – and it is not.
2. Baseball is a game of action – – and it is a game of strategy and tactics.  The four “outcomes” noted by Joel Sherman above – strikeout, walk, homer or hit by pitch – all create new strategic and tactical challenges for both the offense and the defense.  Excitement comes to baseball games in many different flavors; when the ball is hit into the field of play, that creates excitement; those other outcomes from an at-bat can also produce baseball excitement.

This was an interesting column from Joel Sherman who is a well known and highly respected writer on baseball.  Here is a link to this column.  I suggest you may want to read it in its entirety.

The winter of 2017/2018 was a disappointing one for many MLB free agents; that state of affairs was widely reported as Spring Training began with lots of hopeful free agents left hanging out to dry.  Some folks even used the “C-Word” in hushed tones; you know … collusion.

I would like to point out here how three different teams are currently suffering under stifling guaranteed contracts that they doled out to free agents who were deep enough into their careers at the time of the signing to assure that there would be bleak times ahead for the teams and the players:

1. Chicago Cubs:   They signed Jason Heyward in 2016 to an 8-year contract worth $184M.  He will make $21.5M this year and then another $106M in the years up to the end of the 2023 season.  Heyward has been a .261/.344/.412 hitter over his 8+ years in MLB and that is hardly an eye-popping stat line.  In his first two years in Chicago, he did not even live up to that career standard.  I guess Cubs’ fans can take solace that he is still a really good defensive outfielder and they can hope that aspect of his game continues to obtain through 2023.
2. Detroit Tigers:  They signed Miguel Cabrera in 2016 as the Cubs did with Jason Heyward.  Cabrera’s deal is also for 8 years through 2023 and it was for a whopping $248M with options in 2024 and 2025.  Cabrera will make $30M this year; he will make $31M from 2019 through 2021; then, he will make $32M in 2022 and 2023.  And if the Tigers want to drop him in 2024, it will cost them an additional $8M to do that.  Last year, Cabrera hit .249 which was his worst year at the plate in his 15-year MLB career.  He is 35 years old now and will be closing in on 41 years old when the Tigers buy out the 2024 season for $8M.
3. LA Angels:  They signed Albert Pujols in 2012 to a 10-year contract worth $240M.  Pujols makes $27M this year and will make $28M next year, $29 M the year after that and $30M in the 2020 season.  In addition, he will collect a $3M bonus sometime this year when he collects his 3000^th MLB hit.  It will take a catastrophic event to prevent him from reaching that milestone this year since he had 2996 hits as of May 1^st.  In 2 of the last 3 full seasons, Pujols has hit less than .250; in half of his 6 full seasons with the Angels, he has hit fewer than 30 home runs for the year.

Every dime of those three contracts – and every other MLB contract signed – is fully guaranteed and in these three cases it is fair to say that the players have not been living up to the lofty expectations the clubs had for them as the ink was drying on the contract.  That is not a reason to eschew signing free agents; it is a reason for the clubs to think twice about how long a deal – and how much guaranteed money – they will offer to a player who is near the age of 30 at the time of the free agency

Finally, here are some random observations from Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle:

“Scientists studying the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, which is four times the size of California, were surprised to find it contains three Trump hotels.

“The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is larger than France, but the Patch’s wine region can’t carry France’s wine region’s Jacques.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am not going to pretend to know with any degree of certainty greater than homeopathic concentration levels about the future successes/failures of QBs taken in the 2018 NFL Draft.  Nonetheless:

• How do you think Tyrod Taylor feels today having signed a free agent deal with the Browns only to see the Browns spend the overall #1 pick on Baker Mayfield?
• Similarly, how do you think Sam Bradford feels today having signed a free agent deal with the Cards only to see the Cards trade up to acquire Josh Rosen?

Notwithstanding any and all of the stress and agita that might arouse from such draft circumstances, there may indeed be more pressure on the incumbent QB in Baltimore than there is elsewhere among established starting QBs.  Joe Flacco is the starter for the Ravens; that is a fact and that is not going to change over the next several months so long as Flacco is not involved in a traffic incident that leaves him as a multiple amputee.  Ravens’ fans can take opposing positions on the “question” posed above; but I think that question is settled and unworthy of appeal.  Here is what the Ravens and Joe Flacco have to look forward to in training camp the year:

• Recall that the Ravens signed RG3 to an incentive laden contract merely 2 weeks ago.  RG3 can run; no one can dispute that statement.
• In the first round of the draft, the Ravens traded up to take Lamar Jackson.  That means they have two “running QBs” on the team behind Joe Flacco who is more mobile than an elm tree – – but not much more.

Forget any “training cam controversies”.  The Ravens are set up to create shouting matches among their own fanbase after every loss and maybe after some of their wins too.  It should be “fun and games” in Crabtown…

With the Draft in the rearview mirror, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have posted the futures bets for the 2018 season.  According to them, 19 of the 32 NFL teams will win 8 or more games this year. That can happen of course, but it requires a few teams to win a lot less than 8 games and the oddsmakers do not have any teams lower than 5 wins for the season.

Fear not; the oddsmakers have not lost their minds.  Remember, they are not posting numbers that necessarily reflect reality; they are posting odds that – hopefully from their point of view – will balance their books.  Fans of teams tend to be overly optimistic at this point of the season; and so, the sportsbooks taking futures bets want the win totals for 2018 to reflect that optimism.

The person who I refer to as the “Chief Logistics Officer” for our annual Las Vegas sojourn thinks it might be a winning strategy to bet all 32 teams UNDER their posted win totals at this point of the year.  Here is the link to those totals.  I will check this out and report back in December.

Switching to baseball, I realize that the season is only one month old.  Nevertheless, the Miami Marlins do not have the worst record in MLB at this point of the season despite their team-gutting activities over the winter.  In fact, at the start of May, there are 5 teams that would fall below the Marlins if MLB had a single ranking of teams.

• Marlins  10-18  Win percentage = .357
• Padres  10-20  Win percentage = .333
• White Sox  8-18  Win percentage = .308
• Orioles  8-20  Win percentage = .286
• Royals  7-21  Win percentage = .250
• Reds  7-22  Win percentage = .241

Is this the start of a “grand race to the bottom”?  Or, are there really 6 teams in MLB that are fielding the moral equivalent of a AAA team for the year in hopes of getting the first pick in the MLB Draft next year?

The Marlins project today to win 58 games; that means they will lose more than 100 games.  By projection, 6 teams in MLB will lose more than 100 games this year; even worse, the Reds project to win only 39 games for the season meaning they would lose 123 games – – clearly a modern record for failure.

Finally, here is a comment from syndicated columnist, Norman Chad, describing a truly frightening scenario:

“I  woke up in a dead sweat the other night from a dream in which I was the sideline reporter at a pantomime competition.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………