Category: Daily Rants

Geoffrey Chaucer observed, “Time and tide wait for no man.”  And so, the passage of seven days’ time – – having failed to wait for anyone – – brings us to another Football Friday.

Before I review last week’s Six-Pack, I must take issue with Salvador Dali for a moment.  Dali said, “Have no fear of perfection – you’ll never reach it.”  Look back at last week’s Six-Pack and you will see perfection attained – albeit as a mirror image.  Here are the results:

• College:  0-3-0
• NFL:  0-3-0
• Combined:  0-6-0

That lowers the season totals to:

• College:  5-11-1
• NFL:  10- 9- 0
• Combined:  15-20-1

Having attained perfection – it is just as difficult to be wrong on every pick as it is to be right on every pick – you would think that I would simply retire on my laurels.  Not to worry; I live by a slight twist on Dali’s statement above:

• I do not fear shame; I seek out ways to demonstrate my inabilities.

And so it goes…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

This week marks the beginning of the Big 10 football season.  A few months ago, the Big 10 announced that it would not be playing football in the Fall of 2020 for public health reasons and for the protection of its students and “student-athletes”.  Any claim that the Big 10 schools may have tried to stake on the moral high ground related to those issues is rendered null and void as of kickoff time tomorrow.  The pandemic is not nearly under control – especially in some of the states where Big 10 schools reside – and yet, they will play football.  I have no problem with that decision except that it is nothing more than an inability on the part of the schools to keep their hands off the revenue spigot.  If only they would just admit that…

Kentucky beat Tennessee 34-7.  This is the first win for Kentucky on the road against Tennessee since 1984.  The stats appear to be even in the game; Kentucky’s offense was 297 yards and Tennessee’s offense was 287 yards.  Here is a big part of the difference; the Vols turned the ball over 4 times in the game and those 4 turnovers came on 4 consecutive possessions in the first half.  Two of those turnovers were Pick Sixes within 3 minutes of each other; OUCH!  I ran across this great stat:

• In the last two weeks, Kentucky has allowed a total of 9 points and intercepted 9 passes.
• That does not happen very often…

Arkansas beat Ole Miss 33-21.  Ole Miss scored 48 points on Alabama two weeks ago and scored zero points in the first half here against Arkansas.  Explain that one to me, please…  Ole Miss outgained Arkansas for the game by 48 yards, but they turned the ball over SEVEN times – –   six pass interceptions and a lost fumble.  Arkansas is now 2-2; that is one more win in the SEC than they have had in the last 3 seasons.  It is still early, but right now Arkansas is a great comeback story.

Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 28-14.  The story here is the offensive stats for Mississippi State.  They threw the ball 40 times for 219 yards – 5 yards per attempt and 7 yards per completion.  Those are “dink-and-dunk stats” not “Air Raid Offense stats”.  Moreover, the Bulldogs ran the ball 20 times accumulating a net yardage of minus-2 yards.

• Memo for Miss State Bulldogs:  Those offensive numbers “don’t feed the bulldog”…

I have to wonder if the Miss St. OL is up to the task here.  The Aggies recorded 6 sacks and another 8 tackles for a loss in this game.  In the last 3 games, the State offense has only scored a total of 30 points.

South Carolina beat Auburn 30-22.  This is not an important outcome, but it is interesting because the last time South Carolina beat Auburn was in 1933.  Here are six other things that happened in 1933 for perspective:

1. Construction of the Golden Gate Bridge in SF began.
2. The first broadcast episode of The Lone Ranger aired.
3. The first edition of Newsweek magazine hits the streets.
4. The board game, Monopoly, is released.
5. MLB stages its first All-Star Game.
6. The first NFL Championship Game took place.

Alabama beat Georgia 41-24.  Scoring 41 points on the Georgia defense is very impressive; racking up 564 yards of offense against that defense is beyond impressive.  Georgia led 24-17 with less than a minute to play in the first half and 24-20 at halftime.  Then the second half happened and here are the Georgia possessions:

• Punt, Punt, Interception, Missed FG.

That is correct; Georgia only had the ball four times in the second half and only one time in the 4^th quarter.

Miami beat Pitt 31-19.  The Hurricanes rebounded from the spanking they got from Clemson two weeks ago to win this game handily.  The stats for the game look relatively even; Miami outgained Pitt by only 31 yards in the game.  The difference was 10 penalties on the Panthers and a miserable 3 for 17 by Pitt on third down conversions.  The Pitt rushing offense did not show up here; the total rushing offense for the day was a meager 22 yards.

Clemson beat Georgia Tech 73-7.  I said above that Clemson put a spanking on Miami two weeks ago.  If that was a “spanking”, this was “aggravated battery”.

Notre Dame beat Louisville 12-7.  This was either a titanic defensive effort by both teams or significant offensive ineptitude on the part of both teams.  Louisville’s total offense was 219 yards; Noter Dame’s total offense was 338 yards.

Florida State beat UNC 31-28.  Major upset here; the Tar Heels went off as 13.5-point favorites and lost outright.  UNC outgained Florida State on the day 558 yards to 432 yards and UNC won the first down stats 27-16.  What happened?  UNC was 2-12 on third down conversions and 0-3 on 4^th down conversions.  Here are the results of the Tar Heels’ eight possessions in the first half:

1. Punt
2. Punt
3. Punt
4. Punt
5. Turnover on downs
6. Interception
7. TD
8. Halftime

Va Tech beat BC  40-14.  The stats here also indicate that this should be a close game.  The Hokies won the “offensive stats” by a slim 461-435 margin.  BC turned the ball over 5 times – – 3 lost fumbles and 2 INTs – – and that was the difference in the game.

BYU beat Houston 43-26.  [Aside:  Both teams are the Cougars so I guess you could call this game a cat fight.]  BYU is having a really good year and lots of people have not been noticing.  BYU is 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 30 points per game.  BYU is an independent so theirs is not the most difficult schedule in the country, but they have not feasted on Division 1-AA teams either.  They have beaten Navy, Troy, La-Tech, UTSA and Houston.  A road game against Boise St. on Nov 6 could be interesting…

UCF lost again last week – – this time to Memphis 50-49.  The interesting thing about UCF this year is not the clamor from its fanboys that it should be – at a minimum – in one of the New Years’ Day bowl games; that nonsense is for past seasons.  No, the story this year is the penalty flags thrown on UCF.  They were penalized 10 times against Memphis last week – – and that was a good game for the Golden Knights. (BTW Memphis was handed 7 first downs in because of penalties in the game.)  In their 4 games this year, UCF has incurred 55 penalties – – yes, they lead the nation in that statistic.    In the loss to Memphis last week, both teams had more than 700 yards of offense; UCF threw for 601 yards. UCF led 35-14 with 11 minutes to play in the 3^rd quarter and then gave up 36 points in 26 minutes.

Ga Southern beat UMass 41-0.  This is interesting because it was the first game of the year for UMass.  This is a school with a “less than rich football tradition” [I am trying to be polite here.] that canceled its season early on.  Now they are back on the field upholding the UMass football tradition – – such as it is…

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Nebraska at Ohio State – 26 (68):  Nebraska was one of the most vocal critics of the Big 10’s decision to cancel football back in the summer.  Now the Huskers get to open on the road at Ohio State.  This is almost like a modern version of the old TV show from the 1950s, You Asked For It.

Alabama – 21.5 at Tennessee (65.5):  The Vols were blown away by Kentucky last week (see above).  Just to add a bit more drama to the mix, Tennessee fired its defensive line coach this week – as if it were his fault that the Vols only scored 7 points last week.  Alabama can score as much as they want in this game; will the Vols’ offense put up the pretense of a fight?  I think the Vols are over their heads here; I’ll take Alabama to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

South Carolina at LSU – 6 (55):  South Carolina had a historic win over Auburn last week (see above).  LSU had a week off thanks to the coronavirus.  Do I trust either team to play to a script off past performances?  No, I do not…

Auburn at Ole Miss – 3.5 (72):  The Total Line for this game opened at 63 points and has risen steadily all week.  There is an interesting matchup here:

• The Auburn offense ranks 57^th in the country at 366.8 yards per game.  Being kind, let us call that “mediocre”.
• The Ole Miss defense ranks 76^th in the country yielding 579.5 yards per game.  Only 77 teams have played so far this year so there is no room for kindness here; that defense stinks.

Penn State – 5.5 at Indiana (62):  Indiana won 8 games last year.  Penn State will not have its best RB, Journey Brown, who is out for the year with a “medical condition”.  Could be interesting…

Syracuse at Clemson – 46.5 (62):  This is a conference game with a spread like that?  Highly unusual – – notwithstanding last week when Clemson defeated another conference foe by 66 points.

Iowa – 3 at Purdue (52):  Purdue coach Jeff Brohm tested COVID-19 positive and has asked the NCAA to allow him to coach the game from his “isolation chamber”.  That will require the NCAA to waive one of its many stupid rules.  The NCAA response to that petition for sanity is the reason this game might be interesting.

Cincy at SMU – 2.5 (56):  These are the two remaining undefeated teams in the AAC.  Cincy is 3-0; SMU is 5-0.

Middle Tennessee State at Rice – 3.5 (50):  This is interesting because Rice is favored.  That does not happen often…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Steelers beat the Browns 38-7.  This was as dominant as the score would indicate; Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times and intercepted twice – – one a Pick-Six.  Mayfield’s stats for the day were 10 of 18 for 119 yards and 1 TD and 2 INTs.  The Browns have won games this year by running the ball and controlling the pace of the game; the Steelers shut down the run game and won handily.

The Titans beat the Texans 42-36 (OT).  Maybe the Texans’ win two weeks ago was more than a “dead cat bounce”?  After all, they came from behind to force OT against an undefeated team here.  The two major problems facing the Texans are:

1. The defense gave up 600 yards of offense to the Titans here
2. The OL that is about as reliable as a deadbeat dad.  Deshaun Watson should sue for lack of support.

The Titans marched 82 yards in OT to score a TD and seal the game.  Derrick Henry scored the winning TD and – by the way – amassed 264 yards from scrimmage for the day.

The Falcons beat the Vikings 40-23.  The Falcons ran out to a 20-0 lead at halftime – – and did not blow such a lead for a change.  Matt Ryan threw 4 TDs in the game; Kirk Cousins threw 3 INTs in the game.  The Vikings are now 1-5.  That puts them in the following company – – all of whom are only 1 game ahead of the 0-6 NY Jets:

• Falcons
• Giants
• Jags
• Texans
• WTFs

Just to clarify … that is not a list one should seek to be on.  Moreover, the Vikes’ defense has allowed more points than any of the five teams on the list above (34 points per game).

The Colts beat the Bengals 31-27.  The Bengals led this game 21-0 in the first quarter but could not hold on.  [Aside:  Since the Falcons did not blow their huge early lead, another team needed to step up and do the deed.  Thanks to the Bengals here…]   Philip Rivers led the comeback with 3 TDs and 371 yards passing.  After the scoring eruption in the first quarter, the Colts’ defense smothered the Bengals’ offense.

The Lions beat the Jags 34-16.  Like the Falcons and the Bengals, the Lions amassed a big lead – – 21 points – – and followed the “Falcons’ Model” from last week and did not blow the lead.  Rookie RB, DeAndre Swift, scored 2 TDs and averaged 8 yards per carry on the day.  The Jags were just awful in this game – – but what’s new?

The Bears beat the Panthers 23-16.  The Bears are 5-1 for the year and lead the NFC North; the defense deserves most of the credit for this win.   The defense held the Panthers to 3-13 on third-down conversions and recorded 4 sacks along with 3 takeaways.

The Broncos beat the Pats 18-12.  The Pats lost a game where they did not surrender a TD; those 18 points came on 6 field goals.  The Pats slipped below .500 here and this is the latest in a season where they have been under .500 since 2002.  The Pats’ run game was anemic.  Cam Newton gained 76 yards on the ground – – half of that total coming on one play.  The running backs carried the ball 15 times among them and gained a combined total of 41 yards.

The Giants beat the WTFs 20-19.  The winning score came on a scoop-and-score in the 4^th quarter by the Giants’ defense.  The Giants offense was a no-show for most of the game.

• Giants total offense = 242 yards.
• Giants ran a total of 44 plays in the game.
• Giants had the ball in the Red Zone 3 times and got no TDs.
• Giants had the ball with “goal to go” twice and got no TDs.
• Giants won the game, nonetheless.
• These are two very flawed teams.

The Ravens beat the Eagles 30-28.  Early on, it looked as if this was going to be a game with a score something like 50-0; the Eagles’ offense was non-existent until someone flipped a switch and it started to click.  At one point in the 2^nd quarter, a screen graphic said the Eagles’ net offense was minus-7 yards.  The Ravens’ passing game was limited to dink-and-dunk stuff, but it was enough to get the job done.

The Dolphins beat the Jets 24-0.  The  Jets’ offensive futility was encapsulated in one play.  Joe Flacco dropped back to pass; got no protection; tried to scramble and kept retreating until he was sacked for a loss of 28 yards.  The Jets’ defensive futility is shown by the 24-point score.  Tua Tagovailoa saw the field for the first time with a little over 2 minutes to play in the game.  He has been named the starter for the Dolphins in their next game after a BYE week this week.  The Jets are the only winless team so far this year AND the Jets have not covered against the spread in any of their six losses.

The Bucs beat the Packers 38-10.  The Packers led 10-0 and seemed to be cruising until Aaron Rodgers threw a Pick-Six and everything went in favor of the Bucs for the rest of the game.  The Bucs dominated the second quarter 28-0.

The Niners beat the Rams 24-16.  Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff are QBs who are either very good or very bad depending on the phase of the moon or the closing price of soybeans.  Jimmy G played well here, and Jared Goff kept inventing ways to miss open receivers.

The Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 on a rainy night in Buffalo.  I’m not sure what happened to the Bills’ defense but it did not show up in this game; the Chiefs ran the ball excellently (245 yards on 46 attempts) and threw it when necessary.  Josh Allen had a bad night; until early in the 4^th quarter when he led a Bills’ TD drive.  Up until that point, he had a grand total of 66  yards passing.  The Chiefs held the ball for just over 37 minutes in the game and gained 466 yards of offense as opposed to 206 yards for the Bills.  This game was not as close as the score makes it look.

The Cards beat the Cowboys 38-10.  This game was also not as close as it looks; this was an organized and well-executed ass-kicking from start to finish.  Kyler Murray had a terrible game for him completing only 9 passes, but the Cards did not need him because they basically ran the ball whenever and wherever they pleased.  The Cards gained 261 yards rushing on only 35 carries; the Dallas defense was a mirage in the game.  Also, four turnovers by the Cowboys did not help their cause.

The Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread in 2020.  In addition to that ignominy, there was another embarrassing moment in the 4^th quarter of this game.  The Cowboys were down 25 points (28-3) and tried a 58-yard field goal (surprise, it was no good).  And even if it were good, that would have made it a 22-point game.  Seriously now, a 58-yard field goal in the 4^th quarter down 25 points …  What is that all about?

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The defense stinks; the offensive line that used to be the strength of the team now has 5 former piano movers starting.  Dak Prescott could move enough to handle pressure; Andy Dalton needs a clean pocket to be effective; that offensive line is not going to give him a season of clean pockets.

If I were Dak Prescott’s agent, I would take the tape from this game against the Cards in to show to Jerry Jones when I negotiate for Dak next year.  [Aside: Andy Dalton is only on a 1-year deal, so it is not as if Jones signed his “backup QB for the future”.]   The Cowboys have no QB controversy; they have a QB conundrum.

In addition, the Cowboys’ secondary is porous – and that is being exceedingly kind.  And still, there are no rumors of them talking to Earl Thomas to come in and play safety.  That fact says something to me about the NFL grapevine…

 

NFL Games:

 

 The four teams on a BYE Week this week are:

• Colts:  They need to get their defense playing the way they did in the early games this season.
• Dolphins:  They will spend the week getting Tua ready to start next week.
• Ravens:  They will be sitting at home and rooting for the Titans to knock off the Steelers on Sunday.
• Vikes:  They will be running computer simulations of the rest of the NFL season to find any ways things can unfold with the Vikes on top of the NFC North.

Cleveland – 3 at Cincy (50.5):  So many parallels in this game…  both teams are in Ohio; both have young QBs taken #1 in the Draft; both QBs won the Heisman; both teams have “struggled” in recent seasons.  I could go on…  The Browns succeed when they can run the ball, control the pace of the game and remove the need for Baker Mayfield to have to throw the ball 35 – 40 times.  The Bengals run defense ranks 27^th in the NFL giving up 142.3 yards per game.  I think that is the way the game will unfold; I like the Browns – even on the road here – to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Dallas – 1 at Washington (45):  The spread opened the week with the Cowboys as 3-point favorites; this morning the game is either a 1-point spread or a “pick ‘em” game.  There is a macabre aspect of this game worth watching:

• The Cowboys’ defense cannot stop the run.  They rank 31^st in the NFL this year giving up 173.3 yards per game.
• The Cowboys’ pass defense is middling ranking 17^th in the NFL.  However, the Cowboys do give up long pass plays more than you would expect for a pass defense ranked in the middle of the league.
• Here is the deal, though.  The WTFs do not run the ball well nor do they throw it deep.  So, what is going to happen there…?

I think it is far more likely that this game will be lost as opposed to won.  The team that makes the last mistake will be the loser.  If you are interested in trends, here are a few:

• Cowboys are 14-2 straight up against division opponents in their last `16 games.
• Cowboys are 13-3 against the spread in those same 16 division games.
• WTFs are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games against the Cowboys
• WTFs are 2-6 against the spread in those same 8 games against the Cowboys.

Your mileage may vary.  Only one thing is certain:

• This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Detroit at Atlanta – 2.5 (54.5):  Take a deep breath here; both teams will arrive at the kickoff coming off a win last week.  Do you believe the Falcons are rejuvenated under the guiding spirit of Raheem Morris?  Do you trust the Lions on the road against anyone other than the Altoona Asthma Attacks?

Carolina at New Orleans – 7 (51):  Teddy Bridgewater returns to the Superdome where he was Drew Brees’ understudy for 2 years.  The Saints had a BYE Week last week and Michael Thomas is about to return to action; that good news needs to be tempered by the fact that the Saint’s defense has not been good this year and that unit is not getting any sort of talent infusion.  The Panthers are playing surprisingly well so far this year – – but I am not yet ready to trust them on the road in a division game.

Buffalo – 12.5 at Jets (46):  The Jets are at home and playing a division rival.  And, they are  a double-digit underdog.  Talk about a slap in the face.  The Bills’ defense has not played up to its press clippings in the last couple of games.  Against the Jets’ OL, and against a slow-as-molasses Joe Flacco at QB, I think the Bills’ defense will look good in this game.  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games so I will not make a selection here.

Green Bay – 3.5 at Houston (57):  Have the Texans rejuvenated themselves with Bill O’Brien being somewhere else? Can the Texans’ defense – – worst in the NFL against the run – – stop Aaron Jones?  Will Deshaun Watson have a field day against a Packers’ defense that allows 27.2 points per game?  This could be an interesting game to watch. 

(Sun Nite) Seattle – 3 at Arizona (56):  Here is a stat that surprised me:

• In the 6 games played by the Cards so far this season, all 6 of them have gone UNDER.

The Seahawks had a BYE last week while the Cards had their laugher of a game against the Cowboys.  The Seahawks’ defense is last in the NFL giving up 471.2 yards per game – – and yet, they are 5-0.  Will this turn into a track meet?

SF at New England – 2 (44):  The spread here opened with the Pats as 5-point favorites, but that number has been eroding all week.  I would not be surprised to see this as a “pick ‘em game” by kickoff.  The Pats are definitely struggling this year on offense even with Cam Newton on the field; the Niners are a M*A*S*H unit.  There will be lots of gooey commentary here about Jimmy G returning to Foxboro.  Ho-hum…  I like the Niners in this spot; I’ll take them plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

KC – 9.5 at Denver (46):  The Broncos won last week without scoring a TD (see above).  That offensive productivity will not cut it this week.  I think the Chiefs will play better than they did last week in Buffalo and that the Broncos will not be able to keep up.  Here are some trend stats relative to this game:

• Since 2015, the Chiefs are 28-4 straight up against division rivals.
• The Chiefs are 21-10-1 against the spread in those 32 games with division rivals.
• The Chiefs have won 9 in a row over the Broncos
• The Chiefs are 8-1 against the spread in those 9 wins over the Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Las Vegas (no lines):  The Raiders had to send their offensive lineman home for isolation due to a coronavirus exposure.  This was supposed to be a Sunday night game, but it was “flexed” to Sunday afternoon because the NFL did not want to take the chance that there would be no Sunday Night Game this week.  The Raiders like to run the ball with Josh Jacobs as the main man in that attack.  I think the Bucs defense might be able to take that aspect of the Raiders’ game away.  In that circumstance, I think the Bucs can dominate this game.

Jax at Chargers – 7 (49):  I know both teams here have bad records; combined they are 2-9 for the season.  However, the Jags lose games by an average of 9.3 points per game and the Chargers only lose by an average of 3 points per game.  The Jags’ defense is an illusion; I think Justin Herbert and his pass catchers will have a field day.  I like the Chargers at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.  Here is a trend that boosts my confidence in this selection:

• The Jags are 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games in the Pacific Time Zone.
• The Jags are 2-8 against the spread in those same 10 Pacific Time Zone games.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee – 1.5 (50.5):  This is the Game of the Week featuring two teams that bring 5-0 records to the field.  The spread opened with the Steelers as a 1-point favorite and has eased over to the Titans’ side of the ledger.  I think the oddsmaker was right at the beginning of the week; I like the Steelers to win the game straight up, so I’ll take them plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.  In addition, I think that both teams are going to be able to score on the other guy’s defense.  So, in addition, I like the game to go OVER; put that in the six-Pack too.

(Mon Nite) Chicago at Rams – 6 (45):  Even a Ouija board cannot predict the arc of this game.  You have Aaron Donald and his buddies up against a less than dynamic Bears’ offense.  On the other hand, you have an erratic Jarod Goff going up against a dominant Bears’ defense.  My advice is simple; pour yourself a nice glass of Chianti and sit back and see what happens…

Let me review the Six-Pack and note for the record that I cannot do any worst than I did last week:

• Alabama – 21.5 over Tennessee
• Chargers – 7 over Jags
• Steelers +1.5 against Titans
• Steelers/Titans OVER 50.5
• Browns – 3 over Bengals
• Niners + 2 against Pats.

Finally, as a tip of the hat to the start of Big 10 Football this weekend, here is an observation regarding college football in general by H. L. Mencken:

“College football would be more interesting if the faculty played instead of the students – there would be a great increase in broken arms legs and necks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Based on a report that was out there last week, NFL fans may have dodged a bullet.  We have seen the need for the league to have scheduling flexibility in this COVID-19 influenced season; games have been moved around and postponed and the like.  According to the report last week, if the Lions/Jags game had to have been postponed, the only option left for the league would be to play that game in Week 18.  There was no way to put that game anywhere in the existing 17-week schedule.  The existence of a “Week 18” would necessitate a change in the playoff schedule and the Super Bowl; it would be disruptive.

Now, imagine for a moment that the NFL gets incredibly lucky with its schedule-juggling act for the rest of the year.  Would anyone want the Lions/Jags game to be the only game taking place in a “Week 18”?

That report, coming so early in the season, points to the likelihood of an extended regular season this year.  However, the only reason to play games in an extended season between teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs or involving a team whose playoff seeding is cast in concrete would be to ascertain the order in the 2021 NFL Draft.  That is pretty thin gruel in terms of motivation and meaning – – but once the extension has been scheduled and the playoff games moved and the Super Bowl moved, there is no real way to untangle that mess.

Fans dodged the bullet last week of seeing a Lions/Jags game in Week 18, but there are other riflemen on the firing squad.  Fans need to remain nimble – – and lucky.

While on the subject of the NFL and things that do not make a lot of sense, let me bring up the NY Jets once again.  After their loss to the Dolphins last week, the Jets traded DT, Steve McClendon to the Bucs.  McClendon is 34 years old; by the time the Jets rebuild and approach relevance, he will likely be out of the league.  Nonetheless, he is functional defensive lineman at this point in his career and the Bucs need a DT because of an injury to Vita Vea.  So, the trade made sense to me in that the Jets – seemingly – were trading away veteran assets to amass more draft picks.

However, as I looked at the details of the trade, things got a bit murkier:

• Bucs get McLendon plus the Jets’ 7th round pick in 2023
• Jets get the Bucs 6^th round pick in 2022.

Forget the timing of the two draft picks; that is really getting down into the weeds.  A 6^th round pick is marginally better than a 7^th round pick – with the emphasis on the word marginally.  So, the Jets sent off one of their starting defensive linemen for a marginal improvement in draft position in 2022.  That’s it?  That’s all there is?

The story continues…  In this morning’s Washington Post, there is a report according to “a person with direct knowledge of the deal” that the Jets have traded outside linebacker Jordan Willis to the Niners.  Willis is not the second coming of Lawrence Taylor, but he is a functional player and the Niners need defensive help due to injuries.  So, here is the reported deal:

• Niners get Jordan Willis plus the Jets’ 7th round pick in 2022
• Jets get Niners’ 6^th round pick in 2022.

Stop me if you have heard this before…

Take these trades and juxtapose them with the outright release of LeVeon Bell about a week ago; the Jets got nothing for Bell, a pittance for McClendon and a drop in the bucket for Willis.  Now, tell me that the Jets have not thrown in the towel on the 2020 season…

As I said, Steve McClendon is a competent DL and Willis is a functional LB, but they were simply marking time with the Jets.  There is no defensive lineman or linebacker in the history of the NFL who could make the 2020 Jets into a good team.  In fact, the 2020 Jets even prior to these player giveaways might be an historically bad team if they continue the path they are currently on.  Consider:

• After 6 games, the Jets have a point differential of minus-110.  That is an indictment of the Jets’ offense and the Jets’ defense.
• [Aside:  The next worst point differential this year after 6 games belongs to the miserable Jags – – but the Jags’ mark is only minus-56 points which is only half of the Jets’ margin of defeat.]
• If you project the Jets’ stat out to 16 games – I know, that is not likely to happen – the Jets’ point differential for the season would be minus-293.3 points.
• The worst point differential in NFL history was posted by the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs in 1976 at minus-287 points.

On track to be historically bad…

There was another report late last week that made me scratch my head.  The report at CBSSports.com said that the Lions coaches were working with Matthew Stafford on his footwork mechanics.  I recognize that no one is perfect; everyone has room for improvement.  Having said that, I wonder if it might be a bit late to make any significant changes to Matthew Stafford’s muscle memory.

• In his college career, Stafford dropped back and threw 987 passes completing 564 of those passes.  He had 51 TDs and 33 INTs and was the overall #1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft.
• In 12 seasons in the NFL, Stafford dropped back and threw 5,864 passes completing 3661 of those passes.  He had 265 TDs and 138 INTs.

It is about time someone corrected his footwork…

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Seahawks QB Russell Wilson says he taught speedy second-year wideout DK Metcalf to swim this summer.

“The 100-yard fly, we presume.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

For all baseball fans who have watched the Dodgers/Braves NLCS and Game 1 of this year’s World Series, I need your help.  Please explain to me why the folks who run the Boston Red Sox thought it was a good idea to trade Mookie Betts.  I am not criticizing the return the Red Sox got for Betts; I wonder why it was even an idea worth considering.

The other smidgen of baseball news today is that the Mets have a new owner.  Steve Cohen’s bid – reportedly $2.42B – to buy the NY Mets has been approved by the MLB owners according to a report at CBSSports.com.  Cohen made his fortune as a hedge-fund manager; but in doing so, gained some notoriety.  His firm pleaded guilty to insider trading and settled a civil action against it to the tune of $1.8B; as part of that settlement in the case, Cohen was barred from managing the money of other people for a period of two years.  All of that is water under the bridge but it did present the possibility that the MLB owners might not approve of him as “one of their club members”.  If the reports are correct, Cohen has just cleared that bar and will take ownership of the team.

Moving along …  According to this report in Forbes, the Ivy League may cancel its entire basketball season.  Back in March of this year, it was the Ivy League that was the first collegiate conference to cancel its conference tournament and that led to the cancellation of all college basketball including March Madness.  The issue now is the NCAA’s view of when to restart the college basketball season as opposed to Ivy League rules on when to start winter sports.

The Ivy League canceled its fall sports – and has not moved to reinstate them; in so doing, it also set January 1^st as the date for winter sports to begin – pending  proper public health conditions.  The NCAA has decreed that college basketball will commence play on November 25^th and some teams have already begun practicing in an organized way.  According to the report in Forbes, Harvard is in the lead with regard to canceling its basketball season; three of its basketball players have entered the NCAA’s transfer portal.

If Harvard is the only team to cancel its season, the Ivy League should be able to survive with the remaining seven teams.  If a few other teams follow suit, it would be difficult for the Ivy League to cobble together a schedule that made any sense.  Stand by for more news on this front…

Another development at the intersection of college athletics and the pandemic is reported by the Washington Post this morning.  Not surprisingly, it is a rather clear example of the tail wagging the dog.  According to the Post report, Michigan health officials have issued an emergency “stay-at-home order” for the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor.  The basis for this order is the recognition of hundreds of new COVID-19 cases in the county where contact tracing has revealed that students on campus are “ignoring coronavirus restrictions”.  The emergency order now restricts students on campus to their residence unless they are out and about to get food, go to class, go to the doctor, go out to vote or to work at an essential job.  You get the idea here…  That is sound public health policy implementation, you say.  Good for the health officials and the school administration for clamping down here…

Here is the rub:

• School athletics are exempt from the order; athletes – like the Michigan football team – can be out and about as they practice for their upcoming game against Michigan State.
• Fundamentally, that exemption is a de facto designation of Michigan football as an “essential job”.
• Football practice violates plenty of rules set in place for students on campus.  It does so by necessity; you cannot have football practice in “small groups”, and you cannot have football practice with mandatory masks and social distancing.  That is obvious.
• What is equally obvious is that football occupies an exalted status in the community and in the university structure.

I have suggested in the past that college athletics need to be separated from colleges and universities in an administrative sense because the goals and objectives of Athletic Departments do not mesh cleanly with the goals and objectives of a university.  [Along with that suggestion, I would make Athletic Departments taxable entities requiring full accounting reports and I would deny tax deductions for alumni contributions to Athletic Departments.]  Now we have one example where the goals and objectives of the Athletic Department – which already differs from the goals and objectives of the university – are also in conflict with the goals and objectives of the public health folks in Washtenaw County.

On Broadway, Rule Number One is that “The show must go on.”  It appears that directive extends to the NFL Super Bowl Halftime Show.  Pepsi is the sponsor/producer of that extravaganza and Pepsi announced recently that there will be a halftime show with or without fans in the stands.

• How can this be?
• How can these folks hope to put on a show without a horde of mouthbreathers jumping and flailing around like people with fire ants in their pants around the stage?
• How can the mouthbreathers possibly enjoy the performance wearing masks and socially distancing?
• But the show must go on…

Finally, here is an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Galileo:  Astronomer and physicist often called the father of modern science.  Although he was condemned and imprisoned by the Roman authority for his forward-thinking view of the structure of the universe, he did wind up many years later as part of a song lyric in Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen, so hopefully that makes up for it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The World Series will begin tonight.  Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw will get the call as the starting pitchers tonight around 8:00 PM EDT.  Even though all the games this year will take place in Arlington, TX, MLB has adopted the standard “travel day” scheduling for the Series.  There will be games tonight and tomorrow night; then, there will be an off day on Thursday; then, action resumes with games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday (if needed) followed by another day off…

In a normal year, this weekend would have been one of the “finalists” for the Annual Autumnal Pilgrimage to Las Vegas.  It could be overlooked if one of the pilgrims had a family commitment that obviated the choice; but absent something like that, the idea of having a weekend of college football, NFL football, English Premier League soccer AND the World Series to watch – – and to wager on – – is most enticing.  Not this year.  There will be no Autumnal Pilgrimage in 2020; the coronavirus saw to that.  Personally, I am looking forward to the return of this tradition in 2021 as a way to confirm a return to normalcy.

I believe there is a “hidden piece” of good news about the World Series this year.  Neither Joe West nor Angel Hernandez will be part of the umpiring crew.  Their absence does not guarantee that there will be no controversial or missed calls in the Series.  There absence does diminish the number of likely controversial moments in the Series.

The World Series has been an important part of the sports calendar for me even when I could only see the games on weekends because the games were played in the daytime and I had to be in school.  Kids today have the luxury of DVRs if they want to see the World Series; and although I have not tried this, I think there might be an interesting experiment to be done here.

• Baseball officials and pundits often decry the aging demographic of baseball fans and  worry about the attraction of the next generation of baseball fans.
• Lots of people who experience baseball games – me included – recognize that the game is not in tune with the short-attention-span culture of many of today’s children.
• So, perhaps watching a game that has been recorded on a DVR – allowing fast-forwarding through pitching changes, batting glove adjustments and replay conferences – might be an interesting way to see a game.

[Aside:  If I were the Baseball Czar of the Universe, I would at least mandate that the Saturday World Series Game take place during daytime in order that any young person who is a nascent baseball fan and who wants to see the game live can do so without having to stay up past midnight.]

I have enjoyed watching most of this year’s playoff games that got us to this point in the MLB calendar because many of the games were competitive.  I must admit that when one of the games ended the first inning with the score 11-0, I found something else to occupy my time, but I saw a lot of baseball over the last several weeks.  I like watching baseball and because I like watching baseball, I recognize some of the flaws in baseball as an entertainment product.

• Owners, players, broadcasters and fans need to remember that professional baseball only succeeds as a commercial entity because it is a form of entertainment.
• The lack of entertainment is the fundamental reason we do not have Major League Philosophy.

Too many innings in too many baseball games in the past several years present a sequence of walks, strikeouts, home runs (with a signature bat flip), and home runs (without a signature bat flip).  In later innings, that sequence might be interrupted with a pitching change – – always something to get the adrenaline level up to the next level.

Think about it …  In an inning where we have batters “working the count” and there is a walk plus three strikeouts, there might be 25-30 pitches where the ball is never in play.  That would be fine if it happened once a week; it happens far more frequently than that.  Even in an inning where you mix in a home run, the “excitement factor” tends to focus on the style of the bat flip and/or the pace of the “home-run-trot” after the ball lands in the seats.

One thing that detracts from “action” in baseball games is The Shift.  It does precisely what it is designed to do; it keeps pull hitters off the bases to a greater extent than in the days before The Shift.  The fact that players and managers are so blockheaded as to allow The Shift to be as efficient as it is makes me wonder why baseball analytics only seems to apply to the defensive aspects of the game.  Forget the lost art of bunting; just look at the defenders deployed in The Shift and apply the wisdom of Wee Willie Keeler from more than a century ago and …

• “Hit ‘em where they ain’t.”

Some folks have suggested banning or regulating The Shift to get more baserunners and more drama into the games.  I am totally against banning The Shift; I do not believe in saving someone from himself/herself.  If I ever heard of a “rule-based limitation” on The Shift that made sense, I might support it; so far, I have not heard such a thing.

But the fundamental problem for MLB remains; it only continues to exist and succeed as an entertainment product, and for far too many folks, having a bat flip after a home run be the most exciting thing to happen over about an hour of game time fails to cut the mustard.  In fact, it is much closer to cutting the cheese…

Notwithstanding any of the above, I shall be tuned in tonight to see Game 1 of the World Series.  The betting line for tonight’s game opened with the Dodgers favored at minus-160; it moved to minus-165 very quickly and has continued to slide in favor of the Dodgers.  This morning the money line for the Dodgers is either minus-172 or minus-175 depending on which sportsbook you are checking.  The run Total Line is 7.5.

Finally, here is an entry taken from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Fat:  What you don’t realize you are getting until you have to suck in your gut even when you are lying down.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Back in late July when MLB began its truncated season, there were no guarantees that we would get to a World Series at all in 2020 let alone a World Series that would take place as scheduled back then.  Well, here we are.  The Rays and the Dodgers will commence play in the Series tomorrow.  The Dodgers are favored in Game 1 at minus-165.

The Rays got to the Series beating the Astros in a Game 7 event over the weekend.  In doing that – and with the Dodgers on tap as the Rays’ Series opponents – the Rays have an opportunity to do something unexpected.  I believe the Rays began the season with the 27^th lowest Opening Day payroll in MLB; now consider:

1. They defeated the Yankees in the ALDS, and the Yankees had the highest Opening Day payroll in MLB.
2. They defeated the Astros in the ALCS, and the Astros had the third highest Opening Day payroll in MLB.
3. Now they get to play the Dodgers who – wait for it – had the second highest Opening Day payroll in MLB.

The Dodgers presented this opportunity by beating the Atlanta Braves last night after trailing in the NLCS 3 games to 1.  Cody Bellinger’s solo home run provided the margin of victory sending the Dodgers to the World Series for the third time in the last 4 years.  There was an unusual play earlier in the game that turned out to be particularly important.  The Braves had runners at second and third with no outs.  On a ground ball to the third baseman, the runner at third broke for the plate and that began a 5-2-5-6 double play erasing both of those baserunners and leaving the Braves with a man on first and two outs.  I do not recall ever seeing such a double play sequence.

An interesting situation is brewing in the NBA.  Daryl Morey is “stepping down” as the GM of the Houston Rockets after being in the job for 13 years and having the Rockets in the NBA playoffs in each of the last 8 seasons.  For the record, that is the longest active streak of playoff appearances for any NBA franchise.  Under “normal circumstances”, you would think that Daryl Morey would be a “hot property” for any team looking to take their Front office in a “different direction”.  However, there is an unusual circumstance here…

Recall it was a Tweet from Daryl Morey supporting the Hong Kong demonstrators that caused a rift between the NBA and the Chinese government – – and it cost the NBA lots of money (as much as $400M according to some reports).  The NBA and its players latched onto the Black Lives Matter social justice movement very quickly and made it a centerpiece of the viewing experience for the NBA playoffs; the league and the players studiously avoided any semblance of awareness of – let alone concern for – Hong Kong protesters or Uighurs in concentration camps.  That circumstance might be completely coincidental; if Daryl Morey does not get an NBA executive job offer, it will be a difficult job convincing me that it is coincidence.

• If that comes to pass, I will be convinced that the ultra-woke NBA and its altruistic players are far more adept at virtue signaling as a means to take in revenues than they are at seeing social injustice wherever it is and whenever it happens.

Sticking to basketball, the preparation for the college basketball season began last week as teams were allowed to begin organized practices.  Athletic Departments around the country are scrambling to fill out schedules that minimize travel and fit into venues that reside in jurisdictions that will allow for games to take place.  Rather than the season being cast in concrete, it seems as if the season is cast in vanilla pudding.

The early days of a normal college basketball season would find teams taking long trips to vacation spots to play in early season tournaments.  This year the “Maui Tournament” will take place in Ashville, NC; the “Virgin Islands Tournament” will move its operation to Washington DC and the “Bahamas Tournament” will happen in Sioux Falls, SD.  Lest there be any confusion, I have been to all of the venues mentioned above and I can assure you that none of the landing spots for these “Tournaments” bears the slightest resemblance to the original sites in the months of November and December.

This year, these tournaments are not a pleasant interlude for the players in the early stages of a season; this year, these events are happening because teams want – and need – to find opponents to play against before conference games commence.  In years past, some Ivy League basketball teams would take a swing around the “Sun Belt States” after final exams were over up north and play four or five games along the way.  A quick look at the schedules for all eight of the Ivy League schools this morning shows eight completely empty schedules.

At some of the powerhouse schools the schedules do not look significantly more certain:

• Duke will play in the Champions Classic and Appalachian State on a date listed as “TBA”.
• Indiana has 6 games scheduled – – but no games between Nov. 30^th and Dec 22^nd.
• Kentucky’s schedule as listed on the UK athletics website contains this information, “The 2020-21 men’s basketball schedule will be posted as information becomes available.”
• Kansas has lots of games scheduled – 13 by my count – but 10 of the 13 games have either the opponent as “TBD” or the venue as “TBD” – – or both.
• UNC has 3 games on its schedule this morning on from Nov 30 through December 2 in the relocated “Maui Tournament”.
• Washington has 1 game scheduled (on Dec 19^th) and three “placeholders” on the schedule with opponents and venues listed as “TBD”.

Finally, here is a baseball item from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times from back in the regular season:

“The Yankees — for the first time in their 120-year history — hit into five double plays and committed four errors in the same game in a 4-3, 10-inning loss to the Marlins.

“Or as the 1962 Mets used to call such an occurrence, Friday.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

It is a dreary, rainy day here in suburban DC; it is the kind of day that could tempt one to wake up, look out the window and then pull the covers back over one’s head to go back to sleep.  However, that is not the case in Curmudgeon Central – – because today is also Football Friday.

I shall begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack – – which had 7 selections in it:

• College:  1-2-0
• NFL:  3-1-0
• Combined:  4-3-0

Going back to the start of all this “Six-Packing” for the season, the records are:

• College:  5-8-1
• NFL:  10-6-0
• Combined:  15-14-1

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The coronavirus seemingly set its sights on SEC Football over the last week – – or perhaps the relatively lackadaisical approach to dealing with the virus in SEC Country for the last several months is beginning to show the consequences of such an approach.  Whatever.  Let me review the bidding:

• Vandy/Missouri game has been postponed.  This is not a big deal even giving a nod to Mizzou for its win over LSU.  The Tigers already have two losses in conference play and Vandy is probably one of the ten worst teams playing at the moment.
• LSU/Florida game has been postponed.  This might be a big deal because Florida is one game behind Georgia in the SEC East.  LSU has two losses in conference and its defense has been shredded twice this year.
• Alabama coach, Nick Saban, and Alabama AD, Greg Byrne both tested positive for the coronavirus.  Saban is at home in quarantine and will not be allowed to coach remotely in this week’s game between #2 ranked Alabama and #3 ranked Georgia.  Steve Sarkissian will be in charge on the sidelines for what is the best game on the weekend card.
• Ole Miss played Alabama last week and Rebels’ coach, Lane Kiffin, said this week that the team had “some positive tests” but there has been no shutdown at Ole Miss and the game against Arkansas this weekend is still on.

All that good stuff happened after last weekend’s eruption by Florida Coach, Dan Mullen who thought that there were too many students in the stadium at Texas A&M and that their presence gave the Aggies the boost they needed to beat the gators.  Mullen ranted that he wanted 80,000 people in the stands at The Swamp this week for the LSU game – – COVID-19 protocols be damned.  For the record, the attendance at College Statin was 24,000 in a stadium that holds well in excess of 100,000; it was not “jam-packed”…

• Memo to Florida Coach, Dan Mullen:  Not to worry coach; there will not be any fans in The Swamp this weekend and neither will you or your team be there.  The virus has intervened to cause the game to be postponed.
• Take the week off and cut back on the caffeine…

And speaking of the SEC, I presume you have noticed that there seems to be a tectonic shift in SEC football so far this year.  For the last decade or so, the signature element of SEC football has been the presence of big, strong, tough and stingy defenses.  That is not quite the story of 2020 SEC football:

• Florida has given up 495 yards per game and a total of 100 points in its three games.  Even so, the Gators’ record is 2-1.
• Alabama has given up 473 yards per game and a total of 100 points in its three games.  The Tide’s record is a perfect 3-0.
• LSU has given up 494.7 yards per game and a total of 96 points in its three games.  The Tigers’ record is 1-2.
• You get the idea…

The SEC team that appears to be following the “old-school SEC script” in 2020 is Georgia.  So far, the Bulldogs are only allowing 236.7 yards per game and 12.3 points per game; that is the sort of football I have come to expect from a top-shelf SEC team.

Texas A&M beat Florida 41-38.  Florida was ranked #4 in the country at kickoff.  The Gators led 38-31 with 6 minutes left in the game but that porous Florida defense mentioned above could not seal the deal.  An 81-yard TD pass tied the game with 4:30 left on the clock and then the Aggies won it with a 26-yard field goal with 2 seconds left on the clock.  Florida may need to beat Georgia and then win out to be the SEC East champion this year.

Georgia beat Tennessee 44-21.  Tennessee led 21-17 at the half and then never moved the scoreboard again.  The Vols had been running the ball for 200+ yards per game  coming to the kickoff here.  I said last week that it would be interesting to see if they might be able to sustain that against an excellent Georgia defense.  In short, they could not.  Tennessee’s running game for the day was 27 carries for minus-I yards.  That stat may be a tad misleading since sacks count as negative rushing yards in college football.  In terms of real running plays where an actual running back is handed the ball on a designed play, the Vols ran the ball 16 times and gained 36 yards.  I guess that is a better stat line – – but it is still miserable.

Missouri beat LSU 45-41.  The LSU defense – something that has been  a source of pride in Baton Rouge for the last decade or so – simply collapsed once again.  Mizzou had 586 yards on offense and the LSU defense could not hold the 41-38 lead that it had at the end of the 3^rd quarter.

Auburn beat Arkansas 30-28.  Maybe I need to begin to take Arkansas more seriously than has been the case for the last 3 years when they were outclassed by SEC competition.  Or … maybe … Auburn is not all that good and the glory that was Bo Nix may be nothing more than a phantasm.  Moreover, there was a controversial and critically important officiating call in the final 20 seconds that went Auburn’s way and that allowed the Tigers to connect on a 39-yard field goal on the next play to win the game.

Kentucky beat Mississippi State 24-2.  The Air Raid Offense was clearly grounded last week.  Two Bulldog QBs threw the ball a total of 70 times in the game; Kentucky intercepted 6 of those throws.  Do not get the idea that Kentucky was dominant here, however. The Wildcats’ offense was a meager 157 yards for the day and only managed to make 10 first downs.

Alabama beat Ole Miss 63-48.  I said last week that Ole Miss would not be able to stop Alabama on offense with what was the worst ranked defense in college football at the time.  Sixty-three points allowed would seem to validate that analysis.  That Ole Miss defense that ranked dead last in the nation as of last week gave up 723 yards to Alabama and 306 of those yards came on the ground.  Alabama recorded 37 first downs in the game.  At the same time, there was a meltdown by the Alabama defense which allowed 48 points and 647 yards for the game.  Let me do some math for you here; the total offense by both teams in this game was 1370 yards; that is the most ever in a regulation SEC game.

Oklahoma beat Texas 53-45 – – and it took four OTs to get to that ending.  Texas was down by 14 points going into the 4^th quarter but managed to find a way to get the game to OT, but that was all she wrote for the Longhorns.  Both the Sooners and the Longhorns now have 2 conference losses opening the door for one of the other Big-12 teams to be the conference champ in 2020.

K-State beat TCU  21-14.  This was not a spectacular game in terms of scoring or eye-popping stats – – but – – K-State is undefeated in Big-12 games putting them 2 full games ahead of Texas and Oklahoma in that race.  This win is the second time this year that K-state has won a road game where they were underdogs.  For the record, Iowa State and Oklahoma State are also undefeated in conference play so far this year…

Clemson beat Miami 42-17.  The Clemson defense put the clamps on for the second half.  Miami only managed 210 yards of offense for the entire game; but in 8 possessions in the second half, the Miami offense produced these results:

1. Punt
2. Interception
3. Punt
4. Turnover on downs
5. Interception
6. Punt
7. TD – – getting the score to 35-17
8. Interception.

Meanwhile the Clemson offense was balanced and methodical gaining 292 yards in the air and 258 more yards on the ground.  Miami is a good team, but it is not quite ready for “Prime Time” as defined by Clemson and other CFP contenders.

Notre Dame beat Fla State 42-26.  The story for this game can be summarized simply and succinctly.  The Irish ran the ball for 353 yards in this game, more than 9 yards per attempt.  End of message…

 

College Games of Interest:

 

UNC – 12.5 at Florida State (64):  The spread opened at 8 points and has been expanding all week long.  One sportsbook has it at 13.5 points this morning and indeed this line could go higher before kickoff.  Rankings do not mean much in 2020 but UNC is ranked as high as #5 in the country in the AP poll this week and Florida State is a mess.  I am tempted to take the game to go OVER, but I will resist that temptation.  However, I do like the Tar Heels to win and cover even on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Pitt at Miami – 12.5 (47.5):  The Panthers have lost two games in a row when they were favored.  Miami is coming off a spanking by Clemson (see above).  It will be =interesting to see which team – if any – suffers from a “hangover” in this game.

Ole Miss – 1.5 at Arkansas (75):  Ole Miss cannot seem to stop anyone on offense, and no one has shut down the Ole Miss offense so far this year.  This could be an exciting game to watch.  Arkansas’ defense has been decent so far this year, but if Ole Miss can put up 48 points on Alabama, I wonder if the Hogs can keep pace.  I’ll take Ole Miss and lay the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Texas A&M – 4.5 at Mississippi St. (54):  Which version of the Mississippi St. offense will show up here?

Georgia at Alabama – 4.5 (56.5):  I cited some Georgia defensive stats above that are impressive; here is another one:

• In three games so far this year, the Dawgs have not surrendered a TD when the opponent has gotten to the Red Zone.

Meanwhile, Alabama is averaging 560.3 yards of offense per game and 51 points per game.  This is clearly the Game of the Week and it is on in prime-time tomorrow night…

BC at Va Tech – 13 (62):  Both teams are 2-1 on the season; both teams have outscored opponents by a total of 17 points for the season; BC does this by keeping scores low; Tech does this by scoring a lot and allowing lots of scores.  Given those similarities, I think that spread is very fat; I’ll take BC plus the points here; put it in the Six-Pack.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32.  The Raiders were an 11.5-point underdog in the game and hung in with the Chiefs in a high scoring affair; most teams cannot do that.  Derek Carr played up to and equal to Patrick Mahomes in the game.  The Chiefs’ defense was spotty here letting the Raiders have the ball for more than 35 minutes in the game.  Also, the Raiders were 7-14 on 3^rd down conversions and 2-2 on fourth down conversions.  This is a signature win for the Jon Gruden Raiders.

The Panthers beat the Falcons 23-16.  That result got both the coach, Dan Quinn, and the GM, Thomas Dimitroff fired in mid-season.  This was an “unusual” loss for the Falcons because it was not the defense that failed to perform; here it was the offense that underwhelmed.  Terry Bridgewater continued to excel as the Panthers’ QB throwing for 313 yards for the game.

The Texans beat the Jags 30-14.  I said last week I expected a “dead cat bounce” from the Texans in this game and they did indeed “bounce” to get their first win of the season over a miserable opponent.  Deshaun Watson threw for 359 yards and the Texans amassed 486 yards offense in the game.  Now, can they sustain that sort of play…?  The Jags just stink; there is no deep insight to be sought there.

The Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29.  In last year’s NFL Draft Analysis, I said that Chase Claypool did not look like a TE to me but looked as if he could be a WR in the NFL.  Well, that is what the Steelers have done with him and he merely caught 4 TD passes in Sunday’s game.   The Steelers’ defense gave up a lot of points here, but they did have 5 sacks and 2 INTs in the game.  The Eagles unveiled Travis Fulgham as a starting WR.  Fulgham was picked up off the waiver wire; he had been in camp with the Lions but did not make the team.  Remember, he is also the guy who caught the game winning TD against the Niners two weeks ago and here is what he did against a very good Steelers’ defense last week:

• 10 receptions for 151 yards and 1 TD

So, here is a question:

• Who did the Lions keep on their roster and their practice squad ahead of Travis Fulgham and when can we expect to see those guys unleashed on Lions’ opponents?

The Rams beat the WTFs 30-10.  Alex Smith not only got on the field; he played a bit more than half the game.  His stats would lead you to believe that he was awful – and he was surely not particularly good – but consider that he got nothing in terms of protection from his OL.  Smith’s stat line was 9 for 17 for 37 yards.  Last week, I said that Aaron Donald versus the WTFs’ OL would be something to watch.  Well here is what Aaron Donald did – and what the Rams defense did last week:

• Donald:  4 solo tackles, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble
• Rams defense:  8 sacks and total yardage allowed of 108 yards.  Held the WTFs to 2-13 on third downs and 0-1 on fourth downs

The Cowboys beat the Giants 27-24.  The question going into this game was easy;  Would the miserable Giants’ offense be able to do any business against the miserable Cowboys’ defense?  The answer is that it could, and it did – – but not enough.  The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury, but Andy Dalton came in and played well enough to get the Cowboys a win that they needed to take over as the NFC East division leader at 2-3-0.

The Cards beat the Jets 30-10.  The Jets led the game 7-3 in the first half, then reality set in.  Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins continued to work like a charm here; the pair combined for 131 yards and a TD.  The question that comes out of this game is simple:

• Just how bad are the NY Jets?
• Are they 2-14 bad?  Or 1-15 bad?  Or …

The Ravens beat the Bengals 27-3.  The score pretty much tells you how this game unfolded; it was domination by the Ravens’ defense from start to finish.  The Ravens’ offense looked lethargic most of the day, but it really did not matter; the Bengals were never a real threat to get to double digits on the scoreboard.  Joe Burrow was sacked 7 times and the Bengals ran up a total of 208 yards of offense in the game.

The Dolphins beat the Niners 43-17.  If you just look at the score, you would figure that Ryan Fitzpatrick had a monster day and the Niners could not keep up.  Well, you would be half right; Fitzpatrick was 22-28 for 350 yards and 3 TDs; that is a rather good stat line for a game.  However, the real story here is the Dolphins’ defense which shut down the Niners’ offense to the point that Jimmy Garoppolo was benched in the second half for inefficiency; he was held to a miserable day:

• 7 for 17 for 77 yards with zero TDs and 2 INTs

However, his replacement, CJ Beathard, did not do all that much better with a stat line of:

• 9 for 18 for 94 yards with 1 TD and zero INTs

The Browns beat the Colts 32-23.  The Browns are not 4-1; this is not the same sort of team that we have seen fielded by the Browns’ organization over the last 5 years or so; these guys can run the ball and throw the ball and play defense.  This is a competent football team – – and that has not been the case in Cleveland recently.  The Colts are good on defense, but I thought they would be much better on offense with Philip Rivers at QB than they have shown so far in 2020.

The Seahawks beat the Vikings 27-26.  Leading 26-21, the Vikes had the ball at the Seattle 6 yardline 4^th and 1.  The Seahawks had only 1 timeout and there were 2 minutes to go in the game.  The Vikes went for the first down that would seal the win; they did not get it and Russell Wilson took the Seahawks 94 yards in a minute and 42 seconds to win the game with a TD  pass to DK Metcalf.  I cannot fault Vikes for that decision; I have to give massive kudos to the Seahawks’ offense for that final drive.

The Saints beat the Chargers  30-27.  This one took OT and the Saints had to rally from a 20-3 deficit in the second quarter to get the win.  Drew Brees was effective when he had to be; Emmanuel Sanders caught 12 passes for 122 yards in the game.  Justin Herbert still has lots to learn about being an NFL QB, but all the tools are at his disposal.  He got the Chargers in position to kick a game winning field goal from 50 yards with no time left in regulation time – – but it doinked off the upright and the Chargers lost in OT.

The Titans beat the Bills 42-16.  To call this win “convincing” would be an understatement; the Titans answered any and all questions about their readiness after their COVID-19 engagement.  The Bills sealed their fate in this game with 3 turnovers.  Ryan Tannehill was not spectacular, but he was efficient going 21-28 for 195 yards and 3 TDs and no picks.

 

NFL Games:

 

There are two postponed games this weekend.  The Jets will not fly to LA to play the Chargers and the Dolphins will not visit the Broncos in Denver because the Broncos will be in New England to play the Pats as a result of a previous scheduling gyration.  Such is the 2020 NFL schedule.  So, to keep things interesting, the Jets will fly to Miami to play the Dolphins since both teams had a postponement this week.

There are 4 teams on Bye Weeks:

1. The Chargers need to regroup after their OT loss last week.
2. The Raiders can bask in the glory of last week’s upset over the Chiefs.
3. The Saints are 2-2 and need to string some wins together.
4. The Seahawks have things going their way – – and want to keep things that way.

There are two games this weekend where the lines have moved significantly as the week progressed; they will be noted below…

Chicago at Carolina – 1.5 (44.5):  Here are two trend stats that make me wonder how – and why – folks track this sort of stuff:

1. Teddy Bridgewater is 30-9 against the spread as a starting QB
2. Teddy Bridgewater is 17-4 against the spread as a starter after a win in the previous game.

I liked the Panthers in this game before I found those trend stats.  I like the way the Panthers’ defense is playing and I am not sold on the Bears’ offense regardless of who the QB might be.  Yes, the Bears’ defense is good, but it is not the Steel Curtain.  I like the Panthers at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Detroit – 3 at Jax (55):  For the first time, I am declaring a dead-heat in the race to be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week and this game is part of that dead-heat.  If this is the game in the Sunday afternoon early slot broadcast in your viewing area, I feel your pain.

Atlanta at Minnesota – 4 (54.5):  The Total Line opened the week at 57 points and has been slowly dropping all week long; one sportsbook has it at 54 points this morning.  This is the second game in the dead-heat for Dog-Breath Game of the Week; after all, the teams bring a combined record of 1-9 to the field.  Will the Falcons exhibit a “dead-cat bounce” here as did the Texans last week after jettisoning their coach and GM?   Does it matter? 

Houston at Tennessee – 3.5 (53):  Speaking of a “dead-cat bounce”, the problem is that the cat is actually dead [Forget Erwin Schrodinger here…] and it does not bounce twice.  This is a short week for the Titans having played on Tuesday night.

Washington at Giants – 3 (43):  Here we have the third game in the dead-heat as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  You almost have to root for a tie game here because neither team gives any indication that it deserves to win one.  It is another game where the combined records of the teams is 1-9 and they have been outscored by a combined 105 points.  Feel sad for me, please; this is the game in the early Sunday afternoon slot that I will get to watch…

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 3 (51):  This is my runner-up for Game of the Week.  In addition to pairing two teams that are playing well, there is the interesting storyline of Myles Garrett renewing acquaintances with folks on the Steelers’ offensive line – – and presumably with Mason Rudolph during the warm-ups.  The Browns are at their best when they run the ball and control time and tempo; the Steelers play tough run defense.  This should be a great game to watch.  Here is a trend stat for you:

• The last time the Browns beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh was in 2003.

Baltimore – 7.5 at Philly (48):  You can find the spread on this game as high as 9 points as of this morning; I suspect the line will trend up between now and game time.  The Eagles’ DL leads the NFL in sacks – – but they look to struggle here against the highly mobile Lamar Jackson.  Speaking of struggling, everybody’s offense struggles against the Ravens’ defense.

Cincy at Indy – 8 (46):  The Bengals had to contend with the Ravens’ defense last week and now they go on the road to play the Colts’ defense.  Joe Burrow will not quit, but he and his running buddies are over-matched here.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay “pick ‘em” (55.5):  This is my Game of the Week.  Two Hall of Fame QBs have at each other.  The Bucs bring the statistically superior defense to the party yielding 55 fewer yards per game than the Packers.  On the other hand, the Packers bring the statistically superior offense to the party averaging 80.5 more yards per game than the Bucs.

(Sun Nite) Rams – 3 at SF (51.5):  Here is one of the games with an unusually large line movement.  The spread opened with the Niners as 3-point favorites and it has flipped; the line has moved a full 6 points.  The Niners played poorly last week and may be suffering from “Super Bowl Hangover”.  The Rams’ defense was dominant last week against the WTFs, but they will not have it nearly as easy this week – – right?  I like the  Rams to win and cover here on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jets at Miami – 10 (47):  The spread in this game presents two interesting twists:

1. This is the 22^nd game for Brian Flores as the head coach of the Dolphins.  AND it is the 1^st time in his tenure there when his team has been favored.  And by 10 points nonetheless…!
2. In fact, the last time the Dolphins were favored in a game predates Flores arrival in Miami.  It was back in Week 16 of the 2018 season when the Dolphins lost outright to the Jags as a 3-point favorite.  The coach of that Dolphins’ team was Adam Gase.

There is not a lot of reason to want to see this game unless you think the Dolphins at 2-3 can rally and threaten in the AFC East.

Denver at New England – 9 (45):  The Broncos have a win this year; that is good news.  The fact that their win came over the Jets mitigates the value a bit.  As of now, the word is that both Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore will be ready to play; hence the 9-point spread…

(Mon Nite 5:00 PM ET) KC – 4.5 at Buffalo (57):  The Bills played last Tuesday and here they are playing on a Monday.  Keep this up, and they will think they are back in college playing a MAC schedule.  Both teams suffered their first loss of the season last week and neither one wants to make it two in a row.  The two young QBs here are both playing very well this year.  I smell a shoot-out here; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack. 

(Mon Nite 8:15 PM ET) Arizona – 1 at Dallas (55) :  Here is the other game this week with major spread movement.  The line opened with the Cowboys as 3-point favorites, so the line moved 4 points and flipped the favorite.  The Cowboys will have Andy Dalton at QB; the Cards will be without Chandler Jones as their premier edge rusher.  I expect a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott in this game and a lot of playmaking out of Kyler Murray.

Let me summarize the Six-Pack:

1. UNC – 12.5 over Florida State
2. Ole Miss – 1.5 over Arkansas
3. BC +13 against Va Tech
4. Panthers – 1.5 over Bears
5. Rams – 3 over Niners
6. Chiefs/Bills OVER 57

            Finally, here is a cogent NFL observation from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Wishing: It’s a terrible thing the NFL did canceling the Pro Bowl game for this season. The league should get rid of it forever.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I do not have any voodoo dolls here in Curmudgeon Central; I would not even know where to begin if I wanted to put a hex on someone of something; my depth of understanding of witchcraft pretty much begins and ends with the opening scene of Macbeth.  It is pure coincidence that I spoke highly just yesterday about the Atlanta Braves’ pitching staff and the Braves’ undefeated status in the MLB playoffs this year … and then watched to see the Dodgers score 11 runs in the first inning and go on to win yesterday’s playoff game 15-3.  Earl Weaver defined “momentum” in baseball in the following way:

“Momentum?  Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.”

Far be it from me to set aside a baseball observation from Earl Weaver, but yesterday’s first inning and final result has to make the Braves wonder if anyone got the license plate of the truck that just ran them over.  Oh, and by the way, the Dodgers’ “next day’s starting pitcher” is slated to be Clayton Kershaw whose back spasms have reportedly subsided…

In the other playoff series, the Astros survived a “win-or-go-home game” against the Rays, but they still trail in that series 3-1.  There is no NFL game tonight; this week’s Thursday game has been rescheduled as part of the NFL’s schedule gymnastics in these “times of COVID-19”.  Ergo, the Rays/Astros game that starts at 5:00 PM EDT this evening should be the viewing focus for sports fans in the US.

Moving on …  The Houston Texans won their first game of the season last weekend under interim coach, Romeo Crennel.  Absent a Hollywood-like trajectory for the rest of the season where the Texans never lose another game and go on to win the Super Bowl, Crennel at a current age of 73 is not going to be the next permanent head coach for the Texans.  And, even if that Hollywood scripted ending to the season comes to pass, Crennel would not get a 10-year contract as the next head coach of the Texans.

Last weekend also saw another owner decide to “go in a different direction”.  Arthur Blank owns the Atlanta Falcons and he decided after last week’s loss that put the team at 0-5 to start the 2020 season that it was time for a change.  Blank fired head coach, Dan Quinn; and then, he “took it up a notch”  [Hat Tip to Emeril Lagasse…] and also cut ties with GM Thomas Dimitroff.  Those actions make sense in the following way:

• The Falcons are 0-5 this year; they were 7-9 in each of the last two seasons.
• [Aside:  To me, it seemed as if the Falcons never rebounded from that stunning loss to the Pats in the Super Bowl in February 2017.]
• However, if one believes that the team has been somehow “deficient” since that NFC Championship season, then there is plenty of “blame” to be shared by the coach and the GM.

[Aside:  For the record, my prediction in the NFL Pre-Season Analysis back on September 3^rd was that Dan Quinn would make it through the 2020 season “without great jeopardy”.  So much for that prognostication…]

Note that both NFL teams that have made coaching changes this year have also made GM changes too because in Houston Bill O’Brien was the coach and the GM.  Might this be the dawning of a new era of accountability for GMs in the NFL?  If so, I would say that it is high time.

As the coaching searches in Houston and Atlanta gather steam, you will certainly hear the standard litany of names of every “hot” assistant coach or college coach or “temporarily unemployed” NFL head coach as being “on the list” or “in the mix”.  At some point or another, expect to hear and read about the following as the next head coach of the Houston Texans and/or the Atlanta Falcons:

• Eric Bieniemy
• James Franklin
• Richie Kotite   [Just seeing if you are paying attention…]
• Josh McDaniels
• Urban Meyer
• Lincoln Riley
• Nick Saban
• Dabo Swinney

I think there are two men who deserve consideration for head coaching jobs because of the way they have molded effective defenses in these “days of offense” in the NFL.  They are:

1. Matt Eberflus – Defensive Coordinator for the Indy Colts:  He has been with the Colts for 2-plus seasons; he took over a defense that was not very good and through the first 4 games of the 2020 season was only allowing 14 points per game.  He is only 50 years old meaning he could well be around to sustain a rebuilding of an NFL franchise.
2. Robert Saleh – Defensive Coordinator for the SF 49ers:  He was part of the defensive staff in Seattle that produced the Legion of Boom and a Super Bowl victory.  Kyle Shanahan hired him in SF and the Niners’ defense has been an important element in the team’s success over the past couple of years.  Saleh is only 41 years old; he seems to have an awfully long career ahead of him in the coaching business.

We shall see if either man emerges as a candidate for a chance to be an NFL head coach in the next spin of the NFL coaching wheel…

Finally, here is a Tweet from humorist, Brad Dickson:

“On the news tonight all they talked about were boycotts, protests, riots, violence, dissension, disease, lawsuits and court cases.  And that was just the sportscast.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Joe Morgan passed away earlier this week.  He was a worthy Hall of Fame player winning the NL MVP Award in consecutive seasons – a feat accomplished by less than a dozen players in baseball history.  He was the best second baseman that I ever saw in person.  After his playing days, Morgan became a baseball color analyst for baseball games on NBC and ESPN.

Rest in peace, Joe Morgan.

[Aside:  The last several months has been a difficult period for members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.  In about 3 months’ time, Lou Brock, Whitey Ford, Bob Gibson, Joe Morgan and Tom Seaver have all died.]

Sticking with baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays have taken a commanding 3-0 lead over the Houston Astros in the ALCS behind timely hitting and excellent defense.  The only time in MLB history when a team down 3-0 in a post-season series came back to win four straight games was when the Red Sox did that to the Yankees in 2004.  The Astros are not rolling over and playing dead; the Rays lead the series because they are playing better baseball.

In the NLCS, the Atlanta Braves maintained their undefeated status in the 2020 post-season last night beating the LA Dodgers 8-7 taking a 2-0 lead in the series.  Yesterday afternoon, Clayton Kershaw had to be scratched as the starting pitcher for the Dodgers due to back spasms; the team is hopeful that he can pitch again in Game 4.  The Braves have been nothing short of dominant in this year’s playoff games.

• The Braves’ record is 7-0
• The combined score in those 7 games is 37-13.
• The team ERA in those 7 games is 1.60.

In NFL news, The LeVeon Bell Era in NY has come to an end.  The Jets released the clearly disgruntled RB, and he will become a free agent as soon as he clears waivers.  When Bell signed a long-term $52M deal with the team, it was prior to the hiring of Adam Gase and the coach/player relationship never developed.  Bell was dogged by injuries during his time with the Jets and his productivity declined significantly as compared to his days with the Steelers.  [Aside:  Some in NY might say that Bell “was dogging it” for at least some of his time there; I prefer not to engage in mind-reading.]

Bell appeared in 17 games for the Jets and never gained 100 yards in any of those games.  I ran across a stat related to that problematic productivity that I found interesting:

• No Jets’ RB has rushed for 100 yards or more in a game since October 2018.
• In that last game where a Jets’ RB ran for 100 yards, Isaiah Crowell set the Jets’ team record for yards in a game at 219 yards.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys signed QB, Garrett Gilbert, off the Browns’ practice squad.  With the gruesome injury to Dak Prescott last week and the elevation of Andy Dalton to the starting position, the Cowboys needed to augment their depth at QB.  The only other QB on the roster is rookie 7^th round pick, Ben DiNucci.  Gilbert played college football at Texas; his NFL “career” is rather limited; he has only attempted 6 passes in the NFL despite being drafted in 2014.  Gilbert did lead the defunct AAF in passing while that league was still solvent  throwing for 2154 yards and 13 TDs with the Orlando Apollos.  DiNucci played his college football at Pitt and then at Division 1-AA, James Madison University.

Let me make an observation about the telecasts of NFL games this year.  Early on, I was watching when one of the Packers scored a TD and did a “Lambeau Leap” into the empty stands.  I thought that was clever as a one-off celebration.  However, the NFL is a copycat league and seems to live by the motto, “Nothing exceeds like excess”.  Now we have players holding their fingers over their lips to quiet crowds that are not there and/or players blowing kisses to “cardboard cutout fans” in the seats.  How stale have those sorts of things become?

The Washington WTFs demoted Dwayne Haskins from starting QB to #3 QB who would not be active for last Sunday’s game against the Rams.  Rather than be with the team, Haskins stayed home with an upset stomach.  According to the team’s new Director of Communications, Julie Donaldson, he had a bout of intestinal flu and that his absence had nothing to do with COVID-19.  I totally believe her about COVID-19; if the team were to try to be coy about a test result for the coronavirus, I think the league would land on the team like a ton of bricks.  Having said that, the WTF franchise is hardly a model of transparency, honesty and candor.  And so, the world will never know – or care for that matter – if Dwayne Haskins’ upset stomach would have been nearly as severe if he were still slated to start last Sunday’s game.

And by the way, it has been about 3 months now since the revelations of sexual harassment in the Washington front office and business office.  The team and the league began in investigation into those matters with lots of fanfare and posturing.  This investigative task is not the equivalent of the Warren Commission or the muddled mess facing the Senate Watergate Committee. So:

• Question for the NFL and the WTFs:  How long might it be before we can expect to hear the findings of the investigation and the corrective actions taken by the team and the league?  Three months?  Six months?  The Twelfth of Never?

Finally, Dwight Perry had this item in his Seattle Times column last weekend:

“Q: What did SMU — whose entire student section got ejected from the Mustangs’ Oct. 3 game against Memphis for refusing to follow coronavirus protocols — and John McKay’s legendary USC football teams have in common?

“A: The student body left.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Some folks find themselves in tedious and/or dead-end jobs which makes the typical work week a slogging and repetitive quest to make it to Friday.  For some of these people, just getting to Friday without committing mayhem in the workplace is an accomplishment.  Fortunately, no such milieu exists here in Curmudgeon Central because every day allows for critical commentary on some aspects of the world of sports.

Nonetheless, there is general exuberance in the air here on Fridays in the autumn because those Fridays are reserved for Football Friday.  Even the necessity to record the disastrous results of last week’s Six-Pack cannot kill the joy here in the room.  Here are the results from last week:

• College:  1-3-0
• NFL:  0-2-0
• Combined:  1-5-0

That reduces the previously positive record for Six Packs to:

• College:  4-6-1
• NFL:  7-5-0
• Combined:  11-11-1

Before proceeding to commentary, there is a betting issue or lesson from last week’s Six-Pack.  Last Friday morning, I picked the Pats +7.5 against the Chiefs; either last Friday evening or early Saturday morning, I learned that Cam Newton would not play in that game due to a positive COVID-19 test.  Had I known that on Friday morning …

The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away.  Those folks who took the Chiefs on Friday – or earlier in the week – got themselves a bargain as the spread went up as high as 10.5 points early on Sunday.  Folks such as I who took the Pats early in the week  were not so fortunate.

This is the reason they call it gambling.  It is not banking; it is gambling.  Such are the ways of the gambling world…

 

NCAA Commentary:

 

Eight ranked teams lost last weekend.  Granted there were three games that paired one ranked team against another ranked team; and since there are not ties in college football, that guaranteed at least three ranked teams would take it in the ear.  Nevertheless, there were still five other ranked teams that lost last week.

• That is not a usual outcome
• In this year where only about 60% of the teams are playing so far, the number of “ranked teams” is concentrated in the active conferences meaning the “ranked teams” represent mid-tier teams from the active conferences.
• Rather than try to analyze or rationalize this sort of thing, I suggest that we simply acknowledge that 2020 is and will be a “Black Swan season” and just take it as it comes.

There was one loss by a “ranked team” that stood out to me.  It stood out because there was an awful lot of chitter-chatter about this team being “really good” and possibly a sleeper for the CFP.  I am referring to the University of Central Florida (UCF).  Last week, the Golden Knights lost at home to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane 34-26.  Going into the week, there were some people who were floating the idea that UCF was the best college football team in the State of Florida conjuring up rationales as to why they were better than Miami or Florida or even hapless Florida State.  Here is some of what happened in that game:

• UCF was penalized 18 times in the game for 124 yards.
• Both teams recorded a safety in the game – not a commonplace occurrence.
• UCF led – at home where they had won 21 games in a row – 23-5 with a minute-and-a-half to play in the first half.
• UCF led 26-29 with 11 minutes left in the third quarter meaning they were held scoreless for the final 26 minutes of the game.

Not only did UCF crash and burn at home last week; it did so against a mid-level opponent.  I have perused the various rankings for college teams this week after Tulsa’s victory at UCF and cannot find them in any of the Top 25 listings.  Recalling that only about 70 teams are playing now, that pretty much defines Tulsa as a mid-level team.

I do not mean to imply here that UCF is a bad team; they are not.  I do mean to imply that some of the fanboys who write about and comment on college football were in some sort of erratic orbit when they hinted at UCF being the best team in Florida or a sleeper for the CFP.  Regarding UCF and the CFP, the seemingly most appropriate thing to say now is the refrain often heard on the old TV show, Match Game:

“What lovely parting gifts do we have for UCF, Johnny…?”

It is difficult for me to point to the most embarrassing loss for a ranked team last weekend because both are embarrassing:

1. TCU 33  Texas  31:  No miracle comeback for Texas this week; this was a  home loss to an unranked opponent.  TCU ran 80 plays and had 25 first downs; Texas ran only 60 plays and had only 16 first downs.  The score makes it look closer than it really was.
2. Iowa St. 37  Oklahoma  30:  That is the second loss in a row for the Sooners who led by a TD with 8 minutes to play.  On the kickoff after the TD that gave them that lead, the Cyclones got an 85-yard return that set up a tying score.  Then Iowa St. got the ball again and won the game with another TD.  Here is a mini-fact coming out of this game:  The last time Oklahoma lost to Iowa St. in Ames IA was in 1960.

Texas and Oklahoma will meet in the usually highly anticipated “Red River Showdown” this week.  This year the teams will arrive this year with a mediocre combined record of 3-3.  Oklahoma has been the Big-12 Conference Champion for the last 5 years, but they now have 2 losses in conference and that will be difficult to overcome.  The Texas defense has been embarrassingly bad so far this year, so maybe the Big-12 race is wide open for 2020.  I will go out on a limb here and declare early in the season that:

• Kansas will NOT win the Big-12!

I do not know who will win that conference, perhaps Oklahoma State?  The Cowboys demolished the aforementioned Kansas last week 47-7.  In that game, Oklahoma State gained 593 yards on offense as opposed to 193 for Kansas.  The Cowboys were 9-18 on third down conversions and the Jayhawks were 1-14.  This was a butt-stomping…

If you ignore that opening week loss by K-State to Arkansas State, perhaps Kansas State could make noise in the Big-12 race?  It should be wide open in the heartland…

Air Force put a whipping on Navy last week 40-7.  Air Force gained 410 yards on offense and held Navy to only 241 yards.  Navy actually led 7-3 early in the second quarter and then the roof caved in.

UNC beat BC 26-22.  There was an unusual play at the end of this game.  The Tar Heels led 24-22 but BC had just scored a TD and was going for a 2-point conversion to tie the game and send it to OT because there was less than a minute left on the clock.  The pass attempt for that 2-point conversion was intercepted and returned 99 yards the other way giving UNC 2 points and creating that final score.

Alabama beat Texas A&M  52-24.  Alabama ran up 542 yards offense which was 9.9 yards per offensive snap.  Given the Alabama defense and the amount of raw talent on that defensive unit, college opponents are in deep yogurt if they allow the Alabama offense to operate with that level of efficiency.

In other SEC action, Georgia beat Auburn 27-6:  This was a dominant performance by the Georgia defense.  Auburn had only 177 yards passing and 39 yards on the ground.  That defense just might be good enough to get the Dawgs to the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee beat Missouri 35-12 last week.  Tennessee has looked good so far this year and last week they ran the ball for 232 yards and 4 TDs in that win over Missouri.  This week they go to Athens to play Georgia.  Can they run the ball on that defense?  That will be an interesting stat to look for…

Arkansas beat Mississippi State last week 21-14.  In one sense, this is a shocking result given that the Bulldogs beat LSU two weeks ago and racked up 600 yards passing on the LSU defense.  In another sense this is “business as usual” for a Mike Leach team; his Air Raid offense is known for fireworks and stats – – but not for consistency.  After beating the defending national champions, Mississippi State turned around and lost at home to a team that had lost 20 consecutive conference games over a nearly 3-year time span.  The Air Raid offense can be a ton of fun to watch; it can also drive one to drink – – heavy drink.

Because I mentioned UCF and its purported status as the best football team in the State of Florida, I feel that I should point out that Florida State recorded a win last week – albeit one over Jacksonville State which is a Division 1-AA team.  The score was 41-24 but a program with the history of Florida State was really punching down in this matchup.  Jacksonville State is part of the Ohio Valley conference which is the home of football programs such as Austin Peay, Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech.  Nonetheless, Jacksonville state led this game 21-7 with about 4 minutes to play in the second quarter.  It was a win; it was not a dominant win.

Before moving into the Games of Interest this week, let me offer up an observation about this year’s “Red River Showdown”.  Either Texas or Oklahoma will lose that game and the rabid fans aligned with both schools will not take kindly to the result.  I fully suspect the losing coach will become a piñata for the fanboys on various social media platforms.  I think the most measured commentary about the losing coach will be that he ought to be fired and bought out of his contract; many of the comments will go much further and involve illegal or physically impossible acts.  Here is a hunch:

• I suspect that next week will be the first week of the college football season where someone speculates on what it will take to get Urban Meyer back into college coaching – – and it will be by the fans of the school that loses the Texas/Oklahoma game.

 

College Games of Interest:

 

Tennessee at Georgia – 12.5 (43):  As mentioned above, this game will be interesting from a statistical standpoint.  Tennessee is 2-0 for the year and has scored 66 points in those two wins.  The Georgia defense has looked really good so far this year.  So, how will this one play out?  The spread for the game opened at 14 points and clearly there was enough “Tennessee money” coming in to drop that line by 1.5 points.

Alabama – 23 at Ole Miss (69):  Nick Saban’s defense will be tested by Lane Kiffin’s offense here.  I believe that the outcome of that test will determine the winner of this game against the spread.  The Ole Miss defense is not going to shut down the Bama offense.  In two games this year, the Ole Miss defense has allowed a total of 1201 yards – – 600.5 yards per game.  Of the 74 Division 1-A schools playing to date, Ole Miss ranks 74^th.

Arkansas at Auburn – 13.5 (47.5):  Can Arkansas win 2 SEC games in a row?  I doubt it.  At the same time, what did Auburn show anyone last week that might indicate it should be a 2 TD favorite over a conference opponent?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky – 2 (58):  Which Bulldog team will make the trip to Lexington?  The one that smoked LSU or the one that wet the bed against Arkansas?  Kentucky has two ingredients to keep the Air Raid offense in check; the Wildcats like to run the football (276.5 yards per game so far this year) thus keeping the Bulldogs’ offense on the sidelines and the Wildcats have a respectable pass defense too.  Should be an interesting game…

Florida – 6 at Texas A&M (57):  The Aggies were over their heads last week against Alabama; Florida may well be the best SEC East team if Georgia is not.  The Gators’ defense is uncharacteristically porous this year giving up 471 yards per game so far this year – – but I do not trust the Aggies offense to be dominant there.  I like Florida to win and cover here; put it in the Six Pack.

Miami at Clemson – 14 (62.5):  This is the College Game of the Week.  Lots of people have focused on the offenses for these two teams and their ability to score with big plays and gaudy stats.  I think the proper focus is on the defensive units here.  Clemson is allowing only 303 yards per game; Miami is allowing only 377 yards per game.  Unless one of the teams jumps out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter, I think both coaches will opt to let their defenses keep things under control and play for a winning score late in the game.  I like this game to stay UNDER 62.5; put it in the Six-Pack.

Duke – 2.5 at Syracuse (51):  Duke is 0-4; Duke leads the ACC in turning the ball over; Duke is on the road against a team that always plays better at home than anywhere else; on defense Duke gives up 440 yards per game and 32.3 points per game..  Those are facts; why is Duke favored?  I like Syracuse at home to win outright so I’ll take them plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Oklahoma – 2 vs Texas (72):  This game could unfold in so many different ways that I would only venture a pick if I already had time-traveled on to Sunday morning so I could look at the final score to get it right.  The only thing I am confident in here is that there will be scoring; this will not be a 17-10 game unless it is played in a monsoon.

K-State at TCU – 8 (51):  K-State has racked up two upsets; TCU has had one upset.  Do I trust either team to emerge as a “player” in any sort of national discussion?  No, I do not…

Temple – 3.5 at Navy (50.5):  Here is another mysterious game.  Navy has been blown out twice and made a miracle comeback to eke out a win over Tulane.  Temple is playing its first game of the year.  The only thing that is certain here is that the Owls will not be traveling very far to reach the game venue.

Florida State at Notre Dame – 21 (51):  Do not be fooled by the Seminoles’ “offensive explosion” last week putting 41 points on the scoreboard; that was against Jacksonville State; the Notre Dame defense will be just a tad better.  In fact, Notre Dame’s defense ranks 11^th in the nation giving up only 282.5 yards per game.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Let me begin this week by posing a rhetorical question that has come up before:

• Which of the two NYC teams – which never play in NYC itself – will be the first to win a game this year?

Both the Giants and the Jets have been lousy this year.  The Jets have been outscored by 66 points so far – – worst in the NFL.  Meanwhile the Giants have been outscored by 49 points so far this year – – next-to-worst in the NFL.  The Jets have a quarterback who regressed last year and certainly has not markedly improved from that regression in 2020.  The Giants have a quarter back who is in the midst of a regression year.  The Giants have a first-year head coach; it is too early to declare that he is not made from the right stuff, but he surely has not “exploded onto the scene”.  The Jets have a coach who seems to want to find new ways to piss off his players and/or the folks who cover the team.

• The Giants and the Jets both reside in Dysfunction Junction.

Let me look ahead at the schedules for both teams.  Games highlighted here are ones where the NYC team has a real chance to come away with a win.

• October 11:  Giants at Dallas    Jets vs Arizona
• October 18:  Giants vs. Washington    Jets at Chargers
• October 22:  Giants at Philly
• October 25:  Jets vs Buffalo
• November 1:  Jets at KC
• November 2:  Giants vs Tampa Bay
• November 8:  Giants at Washington
• November 9:  Jets vs. New England
• November 15:  Giants vs Philly    Jets at Miami
• November 22:  Giants BYE WEEK    Jets BYE WEEK
• November 29:  Giants at Cincy    Jets vs. Miami
• December 6:  Giants at Seattle    Jets vs. Las Vegas
• December 13:  Giants vs Arizona    Jets at Seattle
• December 20:  Giants vs. Cleveland    Jets at Rams
• December 27:  Giants at Baltimore    Jets vs. Cleveland
• January 3:  Giants vs. Dallas    Jets at New England

Forget the highlighted games there for a moment and simply reflect on the reality that the 2020 NFL season looks grim for fans in NYC, Northern NJ and downstate Connecticut.

Changing topics, the NFC East is a certified mess and it is interesting to note that after 25% of the 2020 NFL season is in the books, all four teams in that division have been outscored by opponents by at least 20 points.  The Cowboys have scored 126 points in 4 games (31.5 points per game) and are still negative in point differential.

Meanwhile, all four teams in the NFC West have a positive scoring differential after 4 games of the season.  Interestingly, the Niners who are “last in the division” at the moment thanks to tiebreakers have the biggest point differential in that division at +36 points.

And one final bit of NFL commentary if I may…  You have certainly heard about or read about the WTFs decision to bench QB Dwayne Haskins.  Lots of folks have opined that this is too hasty a decision and that elevating Kyle Allen to the starting role is not akin to sitting Haskins but replacing him with a luminous backstop.  Make of that what you will; time will tell if Dwayne Haskins has an NFL career worthy of remembering or if he is simply a latter-day version of JaMarcus Russell and/or Akili Smith.  Here is what I find interesting in this matter:

• Danny Boy Snyder has – since the time he bought the team in the late 1990s – fancied himself as part of the football talent evaluation team in the organization.
• According to reports, he has “advocated for” 4 QBs to be the team starter in the last 20 years.
• All 4 of those QBs turned out to be “mediocre at best”.
• The first was Jeff George signed as the swan song to his career.  When Marty Schottenheimer benched George in 2001, that pretty much sealed the deal that Schottenheimer was not going to last long in DC.  He was fired after 1 season.
• Next was Patrick Ramsey drafted by the team in 2002.  Danny Boy bragged to reporters covering the team that it was he who “discovered” Ramsey and his cannon for an arm.  New coach Steve Spurrier acceded to pressure and started Ramsey 5 times as a rookie with marginal results.  Ramsey’s NFL career spanned 7 seasons; however, after he left Washington in 2005, he never started another game in the league.
• The third one was RG3.  Reports said that it was the owner who traded up to get the opportunity to draft RG3 with the #2 overall pick in 2012.  [Aside:  Andrew Luck was the #1 pick that year.]  Reports at the time indicated that RG3 had the ability to take issues to Danny Boy directly bypassing the coaching staff.  That led eventually to a rift between Mike Shanahan and Danny Boy and it had the secondary effect of having Kyle Shanahan take his coaching talents elsewhere.
• And now we have the saga of Dwayne Haskins who was a “local kid” who happened to go to school with Danny Boy’s son and presented Danny Boy with another opportunity to “take over the first round of the draft” to assure that Haskins became one of the WTFs.  When Coach Jay Gruden would not play Haskins last year despite starting the season with an 0-5 record, that intransigence greased the skids for Gruden to be sent packing.

While it may be that the Giants and the Jets both reside in Dysfunction Junction, the WTFs – under whatever name they operate under – have existed in a 20-year environment of Meddlesome Ignorance.  You make the call as to which situation is worse…

Last week, the sorry-assed Jets lost by 11 points to the previously winless Broncos.  The Broncos gave Brett Rypien – an undrafted free agent – his first NFL start, and he managed to score 37 points on the Jets’ defense.  That number of points is bad enough for the defensive stalwarts in NY to deal with but consider that Rypien also threw 3 INTs that terminated possessions that could have put even more points on the scoreboard.  Another black mark for the Jets’ defense is that they led 28-27 with 6 minutes to play and then proceeded to surrender 10 points with the game on the line to a first-time starter.  And on top of all that, the Jets gave the Broncos 7 first downs on penalties.

The Saints beat the Lions 35-29  The Lions blew another double-digit lead here; they led 14-0 in the first quarter and then reverted to being “The Lions”; the score at the half was 28-14 and when the Saints scored on their first possession of the second half, it meant that the Lions’ defense had given up TDs on 5 consecutive drives.  The Saints were 10 for 14 on third down tries and held the ball for 36 minutes.

The Bengals beat the Jags 33-25.  Did the Bengals offense mature after their dismal showing in that tie game against the Eagles or is the Jags’ defense really that bad.  The Bengals had 508 yards of offense.  Joe Mixon did a “Jim Brown imitation” here running for 151 yards 2 TDs and 30 yards worth of pass receptions and Joe Burrow went north of 300 yards again.

The Vikes beat the Texans 31-23.  The Vikes got big games on offense from Kirk Cousins, Adam Theilen Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.  That is  good news for them; the Vikes offense has been mediocre at best prior to last week’s eruption.  Meanwhile, they won the game by only a one-score margin even with those four offensive players doing very well.  In fact, a 4^th quarter TD pass by Deshaun Watson was overruled on replay or the game would have been even closer.  That is not so good news for the Vikes.  Meanwhile, you have to look very hard to find good news of any kind for the Texans who fall to 0-4 now.  The Texans offense sure looks as if it could use DeAndre Hopkins more than it can David Johnson; the caretaker regime of Romeo Crennel begins this week…

The Ravens beat the WTFs 31-17.  Here is a list of the good news items for the WTFs:

• Dwayne Haskins did not throw up on his shoes this week as he had done the week before.
• That’s it; that’s the list.

Notwithstanding that performance by Haskins, it was insufficient for him to keep his job as the starting QB for the WTFs going forward.  Several of the WTF players had positive stats that were meaningless because anyone watching that game knows that the Ravens were never in the slightest danger of losing.  In fact, the score is much closer than the game was; the WTFs got a meaningless TD with 2 minutes left in the game that makes it look “respectable”.

The Bucs beat the Chargers 38-31.  I think Justin Herbert is going to be “the real deal” in the NFL; he still must learn his craft, but he looks promising to me.  Meanwhile, Tom Brady had a more-than-workmanlike game here with 369 yards passing and 5 TDs.  Ho hum …  Oh, by the way, those 5 TD passes went to 5 different receivers.  Not bad at all.

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins 31-23.  The Dolphins moved the ball well – – until it came time to put it in the end zone.  Dolphins had 415 yards of offense for the day.  The Dolphins’ only TD in the game came in the final 2 minutes of the game.  Up until then all the scoring drives ended in field goals but the drives were impressive until the end:

• 41-yard field goal after 9 plays and 64 yards consuming 4:02
• 29-yard field goal after 8 plays and 64 yards consuming 3:43
• 45-yard field goal after 10 plays and 48 yards consuming 4:21
• 43-yard field goal after 10 plays and 55 yards consuming 5:49
• 29-yard field goal after 17 plays and 73 yards consuming 7:59

[Aside:  There were only 3 penalties called in the game – – all 3 were against the Dolphins.  That is an oddity…]

The Browns beat the Cowboys 49- 38.  The Cowboys’ offense is gold-plated; the Cowboys’ defense is putrid; that defense gave up 508 yards to the Browns here.  At one point, the Browns scored 30 unanswered points in this fiasco.  The bad news for Browns is that Nick Chubb left the game in the first half and could not return.  Here are two stats I ran across earlier this week relative to the Cowboys and the Browns:

1. The last two teams to score 49 or more points on the Cowboys in Dallas both made it to the Super Bowl later that season.  The Eagles did it in 2004 and the Broncos did it in 2013.
2. Dak Prescott has had to throw the ball a ton this year playing catch-up or keep-up due to the lack of a Cowboys’ defense.  Prescott is on pace to throw for 6,760 yards this year.  For perspective, the NFL single season record for passing yards is held by Peyton Manning at a mere 5,477 yards.

The Rams beat the Giants 17- 9.  The Giants’ defense played very well here; the Rams could only generate 240 yards total offense for the game.  Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense was pathetic; they got to the Red Zone 4 times and came away with 3 chip-shot field goals and nothing else.  This is the second straight game where the Giants have not scored a TD.

The Panthers beat the Cards 31-21.  I have two questions here:

1. When are the Arizona Cardinals going to learn how to beat the teams they are supposed to beat?
2. Is the Panthers’ defense REALLY that good?

The Cards only managed to produce 262 yards on offense for the day as compared to 444 yards for the Panthers.  The Panthers ran the ball for 168 yards averaging almost 5 yards per carry – – without Christian McCaffrey.  That rushing game allowed the Panthers to control the ball for 37 minutes.  The Panthers have won 2 in a row with McCaffrey on the sidelines.

The Colts beat the Bears 19-11.  With this victory, the Colts extend their record to 3-1 even though they are only scoring 14 points per game.  Much of the game coverage focused on the fact that Nick Foles was “less than fully successful” as a starting QB once again in this game.  Overlooked was that this Colts’ defense is very good.  In this game, the Colts’ defense held the Bears to 28 yards rushing; talk about making an offense one-dimensional…  The Colts’ offense needs to wake up; it is hard to win in the NFL in 2020 if you cannot score.

The Bills beat the Raiders 30-23:  Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have found “their chemistry”; this was another game where Diggs had more than 100 yards receiving.  The Bills’ defense was better in this game than it has been earlier in the season.  Two fourth quarter fumbles lost by the Raiders sealed the deal here.   Do not ignore Josh Allen and his performance for the Bills to date this year; has a 122.7 QB Rating for the first 4 games this year.  Forget the number itself and how it is calculated; focus on this:

• Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB Rating for the first four games of 2020.

The Chiefs beat the Pats 26-10.  The game was close until a Pick-Six in the second half by Chiefs put it out of reach.  The Pats’ defense kept them in the game; the Chiefs had all of 6 points at halftime.  Brian Hoyer played poorly here making mental and physical errors until he was pulled in favor of Jarret Stidham in the second half.

The Eagles beat the Niners 25-20.  The Eagles lead the NFC East at 1-2-1.  They are a hot mess; the Cowboys are a simmering mess; the WTFs and the Giants are a mess at a rolling boil.  The Eagles won despite fielding a receiving corps made up of Manny Moe and Jack.  [If you are too young to relate to that trio, Google is your friend…]  The Niners were also in a state worse than decimation regarding injuries – –  and it showed.  The Niners’ Brandon Aiyuk looks as if he going to be a really good WR.

The Packers beat the Falcons 30-16.  This was another game that was never in doubt.  The Falcons are 0-4 and face a crucial part of their schedule:

• Vs Panthers
• At Vikes
• Vs Lions
• At Panthers
• Vs Broncos

Those are 5 winnable games in a row for the Falcons.  They need to win at least 4 of those games.  Meanwhile, the Packers are 4-0 for two years in a row – – the first time that has happened on “the frozen tundra” since some guy named Lombardi was their coach.  The Falcons never led last week; so, there was no possibility of them blowing a lead to lose yet another game.  Packers’ TE, Robert Tonyan, caught 6 passes for 98 yards and 3 TDs here.  Raise your hand if you know where he played college football.  That would be at Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Football Conference facing opponents such as N. Dak. State,  S. Dak. State,  Illinois State, and Missouri State.

One last thing before getting to this week’s games…  The Broncos now have 4 QBs on their roster who are between the ages of 23-28.  I feel confident in saying that none of them have yet proven conclusively that they are “the franchise QB for the Broncos over the next five years”.  That means the Broncos need to develop one of these four – – or start over in a QB search that seems never to end in Denver.  Here are the incumbents in alphabetical order:

• Blake Bortles – age 28
• Jeff Driskel – age 27
• Drew Lock – age 23
• Brett Rypien – age 24

 

NFL Games:

 

            The Lions and the Packers are on their BYE Weeks.  The Lions need to figure out how to hold onto leads; the Packers need to keep doing what they have been doing because it has resulted in a 4-0 record and an average of 38 points per game on the scoreboard.

Carolina at Atlanta – 1 (54):  The spread for this game is all over the place.  It opened the week at 3.5 points and has been dropping all week.  This morning you can find it at 2 points, and you can find the game as a “pick ‘em game”.  The Panthers have been a positive surprise for their fans; nothing remotely similar can be said of the Falcons so far this year.  As noted above, this begins a critical 5-game stretch for the Falcons; winning this game at home might be a turning point for the Falcons’ season; losing this game at home might render the season moot.  The temptation is strong to take this game to stay UNDER 54 points – – but I shall resist that temptation.

Las Vegas at KC – 11 (55):  The Chiefs offense sputtered last week against the Pats’; a late game Pick-Six made it look as if the Chiefs figured things out in the second half.  The Raiders’ defense is a bit more porous; the Raiders’ defense has allowed 30 points per game so far this year – – and – – the Raiders have not yet faced an offense quite as explosive as the one it will face here.  I really hate double-digit spreads in the NFL so I will avoid making a selection here but there are two “trend stats” that are interesting:

1. Chiefs are 11-1-1 in covering the spread in their last 13 games
2. Andy Reid is 10-4 covering the spread against the Raiders since he took over in KC.

Denver at New England (no lines):  If this game is played this weekend, I suspect the Broncos’ offense will not score 37 points as it did last weekend.  If Cam Newton is cleared to play, I think the Pats win comfortably; if the Pats need to play Brian Hoyer and/or Jarret Stidham, I think the Pats will win but it will be close.

Rams – 7.5 at Washington (45):  The good news for the Rams is that the WTFs are not a good team.  The bad news for the Rams is that this is their 3^rd trip to the East Coast in 5 weeks and that has to take a toll; the offense was lethargic against the Giants last week.  Much of the focus will be on Kyle Allen starting in place of Dwayne Haskins this week.  If you are sentenced to watching this game by your local TV coverage, do not focus on Allen at QB; focus on Aaron Donald playing against the OL of the WTFs.

Jax at Houston – 5 (54.5):  On Wall Street, when a company is in desperate straits and their stock drops 50 % in a day or two, the traders look for what the call a “Dead Cat Bounce”.  That means at some point the stock will show a sharp small rise in price because it sold off so quickly much the way a dead cat’s carcass would “bounce” if you threw it out of a 10-story window.  The Houston Texans are due for the NFL analog of the “Dead Cat Bounce” this week.  They have a new head man on the sidelines; there are probably a few players who now realize that ownership might consider certain players’ jobs “expendable” just as it did with the recently departed coach.  Add to that situation this simple and unavoidable fact:

• The Jags stink!

I think the Texans get their first win of the season here and I think they do it in style; I’ll take the Texans to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Buffalo at Tennessee (no lines):  Take away all the drama surrounding the Titans and their COVID-19 outbreak, and this would be a VERY interesting game – – in fact,  the Game of the Week.  But I suspect the drama will win out here.  Too bad…

Arizona – 7.5 at Jets (46.5):  Joe Flacco takes over for Sam Darnold this week.  Other than that, I cannot find anything abut this game that is interesting.  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Philly at Pittsburgh – 7 (44):  This is  a battle between two division-leading teams.  Yes, the Steelers are 3-0 and have shown a really good defense thus far in 2020.  Meanwhile, the Eagles are merely the least worst team in the NFC East.  I think the Steelers’ defense will dominate here; I like the Steelers at home to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Cincy at Baltimore – 13 (51):  Lamar Jackson sat out a practice earlier this week to rest a sore knee; the next day they said he had an “illness”.  The line for the game did not move even a half-point with either announcement.  Joe Burrow got his first NFL win last week throwing for 300 yards against the Jags.  Lamar Jackson or no Lamar Jackson, the Ravens’ defense is quite a different animal than the Jags’ defense.

Miami at SF – 9 (52):  The Total Line for this game opened the week at 48.5 points and has been climbing all week; it is even at 52.5 at two sportsbooks now.  As of this morning, it is not certain if Jimmy Garoppolo can play this weekend; that 9-point spread says – or at least assumes – he will be in the starting lineup.  But who knows?  The Dolphins are not a good team but the Niners are the football equivalent of a field hospital.  I like the Dolphins to keep it closer than a TD; so, I’ll take then plus the points.  AND, since the concept of a Six-Pack is generic and not literal, I will ALSO take this game to stay UNDER.

Giants at Dallas – 9 (54):  This game got serious consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Here we have an inept offense for the Giants that has not produced a single TD in two full games against a Cowboys’ defense that gives up 36.5 points per game.  Best thing I can say about the game is that it is a “division rivalry”.

Indy – 1 at Cleveland (46.5):  The Colts have only given up 56 points this year in 4 games.  That is the lowest total in the NFL even though the Steelers and their excellent defense has only played 3 games.  I think this will be a low scoring game that never is outside a one-score contest.

(Sun Nite) Minnesota at Seattle – 7 (56.5):  The Vikes got an important win last week in that it took some of the heat off Mike Zimmer and the coaching staff.  The bad news for this week is that the Vikes’ defense has given up 31 points per game and the Seahawks have the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL at 35.5 points per game.  This should be a high-scoring affair and I do not think the Vikes can keep pace.

(Mon Nite) Chargers at New Orleans – 8 (50):  The Saints are 2-2 – – but the eyeball test says they are “better than that”.  The Chargers are 1-3 – – but the eyeball test says they might be “better than that”.  Here is a trend you might find interesting:

• The Saints have covered the spread in their last 13 games played in the month of October.

Finally, since I mentioned directly the sorry state of the NY Jets at this time, let me present you with a quotation from former Jets’ QB, Geno Smith as a way to remind you that the Jets have been “problematic” for a while now:

“It’s almost exciting to think about all the room for improvement that we have.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The novel coronavirus – the one that causes folks to come down with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) – is a center of attention for many categories of folks in the US.  Scientists and physicians work to try to understand the virus to find ways to “eradicate it”.  Politicians focus on actions they have taken – or would take if they had the chance – to mitigate the spread of the virus and the number of citizens who become infected.  Ordinary citizens choose the amount of caution they will accept in their normal lives to avoid contracting the disease while still being able to survive financially.  You get the idea…

Another category of folks focused on the coronavirus is the group of people who are trying to run business enterprises while everything else is going on.  One such entity in the middle of all this is the National Football League.  Looking at the arc of the NFL’s attempts to deal with the virus while still trying to maintain revenue streams, here is what I see:

• Early on, the NFL shut everything down – no workouts, no OTAs, no people in team facilities.
• To keep the league alive, it began to adapt by doing things virtually – including the NFL Draft.
• However, there is no way to play the games virtually …
• Faced with the economic necessity of “re-opening” the league spent time working to come up with mitigating strategies to add health and safety protocols to their extant team rules and regulations.  [Aside:  Some might say the NFL squandered some of the time it had to do this by trying to wish the virus away.  I think worrying about answers on that dimension is not a fruitful way to spend my own time and energy.]

And now the NFL must deal with the behaviors exhibited and the choices made by the 3000 or so folks who get the product on the field and on TV which is where the revenue comes from.  The NFL protocols were never going to be as draconian or as effective as those imposed by the NBA in its “Orlando Bubble”.  Nonetheless, the NFL got to a stage where the number of positive tests was exceptionally low meaning that the positivity rate for that subset of the general population was something the scientists and politicians would hope to achieve everywhere.   Now with a tip of the hat to King Louis XIV of France and a minor modification of his declaration:

Après cela, le déluge.

For the first three weeks of the season, the virus appeared to be held at bay.  There were positive tests here or there, but nothing that might be seen as the virus having breached the defenses erected by the league.  There were some “poor choices” and “improper behaviors” demonstrated by coaches who chose not to wear masks/PPE on the sidelines during games; the league dealt with that the way it deals with most things by fining the coaches and the teams.  I believe – but certainly cannot prove – that some of the NFL execs figured out that fines were not going to be sufficient to get the attention of millionaire players and coaches or billionaire owners so the league floated the idea that fines might be escalated to suspensions and or loss of draft picks in the event of future flaunting of the rules.  Amazingly, those coaches began immediately to “make better choices”…

Even with all the precautions and the protocols and the rapid assessments of penalties for violation the protocols, the NFL now faces an outbreak.  The Tennessee Titans have about 2 dozen players, coaches and team personnel who have tested positive.  The Titans’ game against the Steelers last week had to be postponed and the NFL schedule for several teams had to be juggled to accommodate the time when the titans/Steelers game could be replayed.  The Titans went into lockdown; things appeared to be on the mend – – and then there were several new positive tests “in the building”.  [Aside:  The NFL should be thankful that the Vikings, who played the Titans just days before the rash of positive tests among the Titans, did not experience any wave of positive tests among their players/coaches.]

There are reports that the NFL is investigating how this outbreak may have begun and one report said that the Titans may not have followed the prescribed rules for bringing in a new player for the roster.  If that is the case and it can be shown that the current problems can be linked directly to that evasion of the protocol standards, I am not sure there are sufficiently severe punishments available to the Commish.  The largest fine he can impose on a team is $5M; that would be pocket change to an NFL owner…

There are more examples of “bad choices” exhibited by NFL folks.  Reports say that the Raiders’ tight end, Darren Waller was fined $30K – and about a dozen of his teammates including Derek Carr were fined $15K – for participating in a charity event.  Say what?  It turns out that the players raised $300K for Waller’s foundation that helps people with drug and alcohol addiction and did so in public without wearing masks.  The NFL protocol – negotiated with the NFLPA – says that players will wear masks in public so long as these protocols are in effect.  There is plenty of photographic evidence that the players chose not to follow those rules and hence the fines.

Somewhere in the cosmos, Al Davis has a smile on his face.  The Raiders have racked up the most fines as a team for violation of these protocols which would not have been welcome elements to Davis’ credo of “Just win, Baby.”  Coach Jon Gruden was one of those coaches fined for not wearing masks in Week 1 drawing a $100K fine for setting a bad example.  [Aside:  Raise your hand if you believe that fine might be “reimbursed” to Coach Gruden somehow, someway.]

Keep an eye on this developing situation.  The NFL is out to protect a business entity that takes in $15B a year without any intervention from the novel coronavirus.  The teams and coaches are comprised of young men who see themselves as invincible and who – in many cases – have never had to worry about things like maturity and accountability for their actions.  The season is only 25% in the books and  the behaviors of coaches and players could take several courses from this point on:

1. Very positive course:  Players, coaches and others see what has happened with the Titans and the Raiders and commit themselves to adherence to the protocols in a way where they even might go over and above the strictures contained in those protocols exhibiting in reality “an abundance of caution”.
2. Not so positive course:  The protocol restrictions become more and more annoying and the sense of “invincibility” and the attitude that the rules don’t apply to me may set in leading to more outbreaks among more teams down the line.

Finally, since I mentioned King Louis XIV of France above in a snarky sort of way, let me close with one of his very cogent observations – which would be deemed politically incorrect in 2020:

“I could sooner reconcile all Europe than two women.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………