Category: Daily Rants

According to a report in today’s Washington Post, NBA Commissioner, Adam Silver, will explore “every possible remedy” to rid the NBA of blatant tanking.  Let me take this moment to welcome Commissioner Silver to Planet Earth where this blight on the sport he is entrusted to preserve and grow has been evident to every life form here in a higher state of advance than antediluvian pond slime.  And since he is looking for possible remedies, let me toss out a few for him to consider.  [Aside: Yeah, right!]

• Remedy One:  No draft picks can be traded.  Once a draft order for a season is determined, all teams will draft in that order, and draftees will stay with the “parent club” for some period of time – – say 3 years.
• Remedy Two:  If Remedy One is too drastic, then eliminate draft pick protection when picks for future drafts are traded.
• Remedy Three:  No team may draft in the Top 5 more than once every three or four years.
• Remedy Four:  Eliminate the lottery advantage for posting a bad record by giving each team one ping pong ball in the lottery and determining the draft order for the whole league with that lottery.
• Remedy Five:  Eliminate the draft.  Put the name of 60 players on ping pong balls in one hopper and two balls each for every NBA team in another hopper.  Draw a ball from each hopper and that team gets that player no matter the record of the team or the needs of that team.  And then, Remedy One would apply to that player staying with that team for a specific period of time.
• Remedy Six:  Eliminate the lottery entirely.  Give the picks to the teams in the reverse order of their record – – but not just the record from the current year.  Make it the cumulative record for the last three or four years.  That will not eliminate tanking in the current year, but it should reduce it.  Combine Remedy Six with either Remedy One or Remedy Two above and tanking should be further minimized.

And while I am at it, let me offer up a “Remedy” that should not be considered under any circumstances.  The college football and basketball championships are determined at the outset to include only certain teams, and both use a Selection Committee to pick the potential champions.  The NBA might consider this as a possible remedy, but it is a bad idea.  I know that people like Mark Cuban think that anytime people are talking about the NBA, it is a good thing for the NBA.  And Selection Committees produce lots of debate and focus on their actions.  [Aside: If you are tempted to subscribe to the theory that all publicity and attention is a good thing, ask yourself how that worked out for the Archdiocese of Boston.]

Nonetheless, there are too many fountains of conspiracy theories in such a system.  Imagine for a moment that the NY Knicks and the New Orleans Pelicans have the same lousy record at the end of a season – – say 12-70 for example.  And if the Selection Committee chose to give the higher draft pick to the Knicks, imagine the outcry about “fixing” that would emerge.  References to the “frozen envelope” would inundate the Internet.  The justification for any and all conspiracy theories in that area would be money; the Knicks will draw more eyeballs when they are good than the Pelicans will and more eyeballs means more TV ratings which means more revenues which means …

• Memo To Commissioner Silver:  No “Selection Committees” please!

This is a serious problem, and it is not going to go away on its own.  It is bad enough when the players show pure disdain for the fans who pay their freight by being “healthy scratches” in games just because they played the night before.  There are no rules that are going to cure that problem; until and unless there is a mass “attitude adjustment” among players that minimizes their own sense of entitlement to their “load management”, the NBA will just have to deal with it.  However, there must be some sort of sanction in place to prevent teams from refusing to try to win games by sitting out starters for half a game or by playing the guys at the end of the bench for 40 minutes each in a game.

It is that second pimple on the NBA’s butt that needs addressing because certain teams are currently incentivized to lose games in the current environment instead of trying to win them.  If a player were to perform intentionally below his capability in order to cash a bet or have his second-cousin cash a bet, the fans and the league would do anything to put a stop to that behavior.  Meanwhile, that is exactly what teams are doing when they are tanking – – except the bet they hope to cash is in that upcoming draft lottery.  That is why the current system needs to disincentivize the way the NBA Draft order is determined.

A former colleague used to say that things had to get “real broken” before there was any real energy around making changes for the better.  In my opinion, the NBA tanking situation has reached the point of being “real broken”.

Finally, here is some advice for Commissioner Silver from author Margaret Wheatley:

“Too many problem-solving sessions become battlegrounds where decisions are made based on power rather than intelligence.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Today is one of those “almost-but-not-quite” days on the sports calendar:

• MLB Spring Training games have not quite started yet.
• The NBA is not quite to the part of the season that is interesting.
• The NHL is on hiatus while the Winter Olympics plod along.
• College basketball is not quite ready for the excitement of March Madness.
• And …
• The NFL Free Agency season is not quite open for business.

However, there are some NFL players who are slated to be free agents this year who should attract interest among several teams and among NFL observers.  Rarely is a kicker in that set of NFL players but that is not the case this year; Brandon Aubrey will be a restricted free agent this year and Brandon Aubrey’s combination of range and accuracy could be transformative for a team’s offense and its offensive strategy.

As a restricted free agent, the Cowboys always have the final say about keeping Aubrey because they can choose to match any deal that his agent might forge with any of the other 31 teams in the league, but that could become difficult for the Cowboys if Jerry Jones treats his roster building in the same way that he has done it recently.  Jones has a very expensive QB on the team; CeeDee Lamb has a big deal on the books; George Pickens is also a Cowboys free agent and an unrestricted one at that.  If Jones does not act first – – something he has not done recently regarding free agents or potential free agents – – he could find himself in a bind to pay Brandon Aubrey what another team might offer.  That could be an interesting wrinkle for the upcoming NFL free agency hootenanny.

I am not going to pretend to know the entirety of the free agent list for 2026, but there are eight more impending free agents who will either get a nice deal with their current team before the feeding frenzy begins or they could be in demand.  Here is my list:

1. Nakobe Dean – LB:  It seemed to me that he was wherever the ball was on more than half the plays for the Eagles last season.
2. Romeo Doubs – WR:  The Packers got plenty of clutch plays from Doubs in games that I saw last year.  He will be 26 years old at the start of next season.
3. Breece Hall – RB:  He is possibly the best offensive player on the Jets.  However, the Jets unloaded their two best defensive players in the middle of last season; so, do they have a plan for Breece Hall?
4. Trey Hendrickson – DE:  Yes, he is 31 years old; and yes, he missed 10 games last year.  Also, he has been to the Pro Bowl 4 times and has had double-digit sacks in 4 different seasons.
5. Daniel Jones – QB:  Did he demonstrate that – like Sam Darnold – he is a late-bloomer?  How might that torn Achilles tendon factor into the negotiations?
6. Aaron Rodgers – QB:  He will find a way to have his name in the narrative at least for a while.
7. Bobby Wagner – LB:  Father Time is catching up with him, but he still made 143 tackles last year and has made 2000 tackles in his 14-year career.  Also, he has missed only 9 games in 14 seasons.
8. Kenneth Walker III – RB:  At the ripe old age of 25, he is the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

One other NFL note is out there during this “almost-but-not-quite” sports season.  The Seattle Seahawks are officially for sale.  Those stories circulated in the days leading up to the Super Bowl but were denied by the team.  That had to be nonsense and rhetorical legerdemain because when owner Paul Allen died almost 10 years ago, his estate had the team put in a trust with specific orders to sell the team and liquidate assets for the trust.  It had to happen; the question was not if but when.

Now we know that “when” is as soon as someone steps forward and makes a bid that the trustees will accept in exchange for the team.  The last franchise drew $6.1B as its selling price; that was the Washington Commanders deal which ushered out Danny Boy Snyder from the roster of NFL owners.  There is an interesting aspect to the inevitable “sales price” for the Seahawks:

• Paul Allen’s sister, Jody Allen, is the executrix for the trust.  As such, she has a fiduciary duty to maximize the value of the asset that the trust puts up for sale.
• Danny Boy Snyder had an incentive to get as much for the Commanders as he possibly could, but he did not have a legal responsibility to do so.  Jody Allen does.

So, suppose I set up a prop bet here.

• OVER/UNDER the sales price for the Seahawks at $7.7B

I’ll take the OVER…

Finally, this from George Carlin:

“Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am not a big fan of most sports in the Winter Olympics, but I watched some of the skiing and some of the luge runs over the last couple of days.  In the course of that viewing, my mind somehow flashed back to football games and one of the announcing idioms that I find “less than informative”; I thought to myself that any football color analyst who says that a running back “runs downhill” should be banned from NFL games and forced to do announcing for ski runs or luge events.  Now that is what one means when talking about “running downhill”.

Moving on …  I saw an announcement yesterday that Sacramento State will join the MAC – – the Mid-American Conference – – as a “football only member”.  There is no reason to point out the geographical contradiction created there; after all, the Atlantic Coast Conference now embraces Stanford and Cal as bona fide conference members.  However, that union of Sacramento State and the MAC does make me wonder about something else.

Let me be polite and say that MAC football is a lower-echelon entity in the cosmos of college football.  Late in the season, MAC games move to weeknights to provide programming filler for ESPN; and if bother to tune in to one of those broadcasts, you will often see a game where every crowd shot – – and there are few of them to be sure – – reveals that virtually no one is there watching the game live.  There are no home fans to speak of, and you can probably count the number of visiting fans without exhausting the double digits.

Now, into that cauldron of nonchalance, Sacramento State and the MAC will create a situation where:

• Every conference game for Sac State will require a flight of more than 2000 miles for one team.
• When Sac State and UMass play, the flight will be more than 2500 miles.

So, why might this happen?  Well, the MAC is losing a football member starting next year when Northern Illinois joins the Mountain West Conference.  [Aside: Yes, I know; another example of the lack of geographical awareness at the college level in the US.].  And Sacramento State is moving up from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A in football and needs a conference to join.  Given this decision to hook up with the MAC, I can only assume that the newly reconstituted PAC-12 and/or the Mountain West politely told Sac State to take their business elsewhere.

Another football program moving up to Division 1-A football next season will be North Dakota St.  The Bison have been a powerhouse at the Division 1-AA level for at least the last decade and have been the Division 1-AA national champions ten times with the last title coming in 2024.   North Dakota St. will join the Mountain West conference which needs new blood because several of its teams are leaving to join the reincarnated PAC-12.  Last year, Delaware and Missouri St. jumped up to Division 1-A and both had winning seasons and a bowl appearance after a season of C-USA football.  The Mountain West is probably a tad stronger than C-USA, and it will be interesting to see how North Dakota St fares at that level.

One of the big rivalries in Division 1-AA football has been North Dakota St versus South Dakota State – – the Bison versus the Jackrabbits.  I have not been able to find a link to the schedule for either school this morning; so, I don’t know if that rivalry will be discontinued based on the Bison leveling up to the Mountain West.  In many of the conference realignment situations over the past 5 years or so, lots of schools have found ways to carry on their big rivalry games; however, not many of them involved an opponent down at the Division 1-AA level.  We shall see …

And speaking of college football for next season, let me comment on reports related to a Texas high school QB named Miles Teodecki.  He was on a State high school championship team in 2024 and was recruited by teams including K-State, BYU, James Madison and USF.  According to a report in The Athletic last week, Miles Teodecki chose to go to the University of Pennsylvania.  For the record, that is NOT Penn St.; the University of Pennsylvania is an Ivy League school not a Division 1-A Power 5 Conference.  I am sure that Miles Teodecki is not the first high school football player to choose the Ivy League over a Power 5 school, but I do suspect that if such players held a reunion, they would not need to rent out Madison Square Garden for the event.

Finally, this from Dorothy Parker:

“I don’t know much about being a millionaire, but I’ll bet I’d be darling at it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Earlier this week, I wrote about NBA teams in “tanking-mode”.  I said then that the situation was bleak but as I looked into team status a bit more, I think this can get even uglier this year.  Two of the “bad teams” that are not trying to win at all costs are the Jazz and the Wizards.  Both of those teams owe draft picks to other teams to fill out trades, and both teams have their outgoing picks “top eight protected”.  Come March/April, both teams will be motivated to lose enough games to assure that they are in the “top eight” of the Draft order for 2026 and that could lead to some outrageous on-court actions and decisions.

Circle March 5^th and March 25^th on your calendar.  The Jazz visit the Wizards on March 5^th, and the Wizards visit the Jazz on March 25^th.  Make a note to do anything short of self-immolation in place of watching those upcoming tank-a-palooza games.

Moving on …  Recall that Cleveland Guardians’ pitcher Emmanual Classe stands accused of rigging pitches in games to allow gamblers to collect on in-game bets.  In the original set of charges, Classe was accused of doing that on 9 specific pitch instances in MLB games.  Well, it might be worse than that.  In recently unsealed court records in this case, prosecutors say the investigation is ongoing and Classe’s attorney said there may be “at least or in excess of 250 pitches in which bets were placed.”

Player props and in-game bets make these sorts of scandals far more likely, and I am not sure how they can be avoided because they are so profitable for the sportsbooks even accounting for manipulated results.

Switching gears …  Just about every observer seems to think that MLB and the MLBPA are on a collision course for a rancorous set of circumstances.  In a recent article in The Athletic Evan Drellich wonders if President Trump might seek to intervene.  The President has buzzed into and out of the sports world during his time in office and specifically in the MLB world where he championed the idea of reinstating Pete Rose so that there might be a vote up or down for Rose to be in the Hall of Fame.  There are thousands of permutations on the opinions people hold for or against President Trump and/or Pete Rose; I have no interest in getting into the weeds on all of them.  But this might be an interesting venue for a self-described dealmaker to help forge a deal between two combatants.

There is also an interesting historical angle here.  In 1994, the MLBPA went on strike on August 12^th and that resulted in the World Series being canceled.  The President at the time was Bill Clinton and he could have invoked the Taft Hartley Act which would have provided an 80-day “cooling off period” where the players would go back to work while negotiations and mediations happened in parallel.  Eight days starting on August 12^th would have yielded a World Series in 1994.  This might get interesting…

Here is a link to an interesting piece in The Athletic on all this …

Next up …  Rumors related to Maxx Crosby and AJ Brown continue to circulate and it depends on the day of the week as to whether the rumors have either player being traded or staying with their team.  Here is a thought:

• Why not Maxx Crosby for AJ Brown even up?
• The Eagles can use an edge rusher and – – Lord knows – – the Raiders can use a top-shelf wide receiver.

Why not …?  Justin Verlander will be 43 years old next week; he was drafted into the Tigers’ organization in 2004 and joined the major league squad in 2006.  Now for his 21^st season in MLB he has signed a 1-year contract with the Tigers for $13M.  Verlander has not been the dominant Cy Young candidate over the past several seasons, but his career ERA is 3.32 having pitched almost 3600 innings.

This must be a “labor of love” for Verlander because it is hard to imagine that he needs the money.  According to Spotrac.com, Justin Verlander has earned $409,254,888 in career earnings.  Thomas Wolfe wrote, “You can’t go home again”; Justin Verlander is out to try to prove Wolfe wrong.

Finally, since I mentioned President Clinton above, let me close with one of his observations about the presidency:

“Being president is like running a cemetery: you’ve got a lot of people under you and nobody’s listening.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

With the NFL in the background for a moment or two, MLB and the NBA can step forward into the sports spotlight for a while.  And the two sports arrive at this opening in the fans’ attention with bad news.  For baseball, there has been an ongoing trial of Yasiel Puig related to gambling violations; that trial ended last week, and Puig was found guilty and could face as much as 20 years in prison.

The charges in the case include obstruction of justice and lying to Federal investigators in matters dealing with a gambling ring.  The case has been ongoing for quite a while; Puig is alleged to have begun his gambling activities as far back as 2019 and in 2022, Puig initially agreed to a plea deal where he would have been fined more than $50K and given probation in exchange for a guilty plea; but he revoked that agreement before it went in front of a judge – – so here we are.  The evidence presented at trial points to Puig betting on sports but not on baseball; so that is why he has not been banned by MLB.  According to evidence presented at trial, Puig placed around 900 bets – – and ran up a gambling debt of $300K – – with a bookie who was involved with an illegal betting ring.

A key element of Puig’s defense was that English is not Puig’s native language and that his lack of understanding of English made him confused as he answered the investigators’ questions.  That sort of argument held up in MLB’s consideration of the Shohei Ohtani gambling matter; his interpreter was able to hide all those gambling losses from Ohtani due to language barriers.  Obviously, that argument did not carry the day for Yasiel Puig.  His attorney said they planned to “file post-trial motions” which I guess means they think the defense was wronged somehow in the trial.  The actions involved here go back six of seven years so what’s another year or two added on now?

Meanwhile, over in the NBA, the sport can step out of the shadow of the NFL which has prevented much fan focus since the NBA season began in late October 2025.  However, as it does so, it presents fans with about a half-dozen teams that are clearly tanking and not trying to win games.

• The Utah Jazz lost a game where none of the Jazz starters played in the fourth quarter.
• The Washington Wizards traded for Trae Young and Anthony Davis in the last couple of weeks and have shut down both players for the season.
• The Sacramento Kings have lost 13 games in a row.

And tonight, the Kings will play the Jazz in Utah in what might be hugely entertaining just to see who can tank better.

The obvious prize for tanking in the NBA is to get as good a representation in the draft lottery as possible because basketball is the sport where a single star player can make the greatest impact on team fortunes.  And until and unless the NBA comes to grip with that reality, this situation will come about next year as it has this year and in the past.  It is bad enough watching NBA games where the players on the floor are not giving 100% effort on every play; it is worse to see the subs on those teams on the court while the starters – – nominally the players the league wants to market to the fans – – sitting on the bench twiddling their thumbs.

How might the NBA resolve this recurring pustule on its visage?

• No team can be in the draft lottery two years in a row – – or maybe three years in a row?
• Have the 10 teams that are not in the playoffs set up in a bracket where the winner of that “bracket tournament” gets the #1 pick despite the regular season record?  [Aside: If this happens, watch players like Trae Young and Anthony Davis have miraculous healing events take place in April.]
• It’s a shame there is no easy way to set up relegation out of the NBA and into something like the G-League because that would solve the problem very quickly.

Notwithstanding all the above, there is hope.  Pitchers and catchers have been making their way to Florida and Arizona and Spring Training games will begin in about 2 weeks.  Yes, I know that there will be loads of formulaic coverage of Training Camps and that much of the reporting from there is of no consequence, but Spring Training leads to Opening Day and that is always a welcome occurrence on the US sports calendar.  Just a heads-up there:

• March 25:  Opening Night.  One standalone game Yankees at Giants
• March 26:  Opening Day.  Fourteen games that day as the other 28 teams get rolling.

Finally, here is an observation by Samuel L. Jackson:

“Anybody who tells you money can’t buy happiness never had any.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

            The lyrics from Willie Nelson’s song back in the 1970s seem relevant to today’s Football Friday:

“Oh, the days dwindle down
To a precious few
September, November
And these few precious days
I’ll spend with you
These precious days
I’ll spend with you.”

            This collection of Football Fridays ends today; it is a precious day; I shall spend it with you.  The football season that began in the last week of August ends on Sunday; news from and about the NFL will not stop, but there will be no reason for a Football Friday for six months.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            There really wasn’t any groundbreaking news on the college football front in the last week; so, let me take some oblique items about the NFL which have a “college flavor” to them and include them under this heading…

            This information came to me in an email from a reader – – and a frequent commenter – – about two weeks ago.  Currently there are 5 colleges/universities in the US that have graduated both a Super Bowl winning QB AND a US President:

• Delaware:  Joe Flacco and Joe Biden
• Michigan:  Tom Brady and Gerald Ford
• Navy:  Roger Staubach and Jimmy Carter
• Stanford:  Jim Plunkett/John Elway and Herbert Hoover
• Miami (OH):  Ben Roethlisberger and Benjamin Harrison

            And so, you ask, why does this belong in this particular Football Friday.  Here is the deal:

• If the Pats win on Sunday, the University of North Carolina will join that list with Drake Maye as its Super Bowl winning QB and James K. Polk as its US President.

            Now, I would not want anyone to think that I am biased toward Drake Maye in Sunday’s game for that collegiate tie-in to the game; therefore, I shall include one more college-flavored item about this year’s Super Bowl game featuring Sam Darnold.  Unless he gets run over by a bus between now and game time, Sam Darnold will be the first QB out of USC to start a Super Bowl game.  When I read about that status, I was surprised because USC has produced a lot of highly regarded QBs who were high draftees by NFL teams since the Super Bowl came into being.  Consider:

• Matt Cassel
• Pat Haden
• Rob Johnson
• Matt Leinart
• Carson Palmer
• Rodney Peete
• Mark Sanchez
• Caleb Williams

            There are probably others that did not come to mind as I pondered Sam Darnold’s stature as the first Trojan QB to start a Super Bowl game.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            Over the last two weeks, I got two emails from the “reader in Houston”.  He is an acquaintance of “Mattress Mack” – – the Houston entrepreneur who owns furniture stores in the area and who offers promotions in those stores related to “Mack’s” gambling on sporting events.  “Mack” often wagers on Houston teams, and I was surprised that he did not have a bet on the Texans at the start of the playoffs.  Nonetheless, here is his promotion for this year:

• “Mack” has bet $2M on the Pats to win the game straight up at +200 odds.
• Any customer who bought a mattress for $4000 or more in a time window prior to the game will be fully reimbursed if the Pats win. 
• If the Pats lose, sleep tight…

            That third entry on the list above is mine; “Mack” would know better than to be that snarky.

            Evidently, “Mack” has not been faring all that well with his large wagers recently; presumably he has ameliorated some of those losses with increased sales in his stores.  The reason I say that is the closing line in one of the emails from the “reader in Houston”:

“Based on Mack’s recent history, bet the house, ranch, and kitchen sink on Seattle SU.”  [SU = Straight Up]

            Speaking of wagering, back in August 2025, the odds on the Pats making it to the Super Bowl were +8000 and the odds on the Seahawks making it to the Super Bowl were +6000.  If you had parlayed those two futures wagers and put $100 on the wager, you would now be looking to collect $494,000.00.  Nope, I did not have that one either…

            Looking back on the NFL season, there were some significant events in the 2025 season; some will be “historic” in the sense that they were a first – – like Sam Darnold’s start in the Super Bowl on Sunday; others will have consequences in future seasons.  Here is my retrospective on some big happenings in no particular order:

• Mike Vrabel turned around the fortunes of the Pats
• Ben Johnson turned around the fortunes of the Bears
• Liam Coen turned around the fortunes of the Jags
• John Harbaugh was fired in Baltimore
• Mike Tomlin stepped down in Pittsburgh
• Tomlin – – with Aaron Rodgers – – produced another winning season in Pittsburgh
• Both coaches of the two NY teams had very bad seasons
• Raiders hired and fired Pete Carroll in the same season.
• Bill Belichick was not elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame
• The Chiefs missed the playoffs this year
• The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons away to the Packers
• Philip Rivers made a cameo appearance as a QB after about 5 years in retirement
• Myles Garrett set a new single-season record for sacks.

            The Pro Bowl as an institution exposed itself once again as a fraud.  There were 3 QBs on each team; here are the three QBs that showed up for the AFC:

1. Joe Burrow – – No problem
2. Joe Flacco – – He was traded in mid-season and then benched around Thanksgiving
3. Shedeur Sanders – – He threw 7 TDs and 10 INTs in 2025.

            And if that list is not sufficiently embarrassing, consider that the Cleveland Browns had two of those three “Pro Bowl QBs” on their roster at the start of the season and posted a record of 5-12-0.

 

The Game:

 

(Sun 6:30 PM ET) Seahawks – 4.5 vs. Pats (45):  The game will take place in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA – – the home field for the Niners.  The spread for the game has been virtually unchanged for the last two weeks; occasionally, the spread jumped up to 5 points for a short time and this morning there is still one of the sportsbooks that I check offering the game at 5 points. 

The same situation applies to the Total Line; the oddsmakers and the betting public are looking for a low scoring event.

The Money Lines for the game as of this morning are

• Seahawks at minus-230 to minus-245 depending on which sportsbook you use.
• Pats at +195 to +205 depending on which sportsbook you use.
• Again, these numbers have seen only minor fluctuations for the last two weeks.

I will be interested to see how Mike Vrabel and his staff have chosen to work on defense here.  I think Vrabel is a “Belichick disciple” in that he wants to take away from the Seahawks that element of the Seahawks’ offense that is most threatening.  And therein lies the choice:

• Do you try to “take away” Jaxon Smith-Njigba?  Or …
• Do you try to “take away” Kenneth Walker III?

If I were making the choice there, I would “take away” Kenneth Walker III because if the Seahawks cannot run the ball effectively, that will allow the Pats’ Front 7 to pressure Sam Darnold and that is the vulnerability in Darnold’s game – – under pressure he sometimes makes “bad decisions”.  However, Walker is not nearly the big-play threat that Smith-Njigba is and that is why I have a hunch the Pats will try to take him out of the game with Christian Gonzales and some safety assistance.  That could very well work – – but it will give the Seahawks a less predictable offense and some greater comfort for Darnold.

I think both defenses are excellent and that is why I think it is important for each team to get into a situation where their offenses are not predictable.  For the Seahawks, it is the ability to run the football effectively; for the Pats it means keeping the game as a one-score contest all along. 

The Super Bowl is the only time in the season where I predict the exact score of a game and a key element of the contest:

• Final Score:  Seahawks 27  Pats 17
• Key Element:  Seahawks sack Drake Maye 4 – 5 times in the game

            Finally, Vince Lombardi was the winning coach in the first two Super Bowl games back in the mid-60s; I will close out these Football Fridays with some of his thoughts:

“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”

And …

“We didn’t lose the game, we just ran out of time.”

And …

“If it doesn’t matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score.”

And here is Lombardi’s view of college football …

“A school without football is in danger of deteriorating into a medieval study hall.”

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to draft Fernando Mendoza with the overall #1 pick in the NFL Draft in April – – or they might trade the pick to another QB-needy team, and the Raiders will try to fill out a badly constructed roster with the bounty from that trade.  The point here is that Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza is destined to be the overall #1 pick.  That Draft is still almost 3 months into the future and so, a lot can change; but the idea that Mendoza will go off the board first seems reasonable to me.

I agree that he is the best QB prospect this year – – and the emphasis there is on the word “prospect”.  The NFL is resplendent with examples of great college players – – QBs particularly – – who just cannot translate their excellence to the NFL level.  And to that end, allow me to present the NCAA QBs who had the most TD passes in a single season.  For some of these players, I suspect that many folks here will not recognize the name – – let alone where the QB went to college.  Moreover, only one of these players has had a successful – – albeit still incomplete – – NFL career:

1. Bailey Zappe – – 62 TD passes in a single season – – W. Kentucky
2. Joe Burrow – – 60 TD passes in a single season – – LSU
3. Colt Brennan – – 58 TD passes in a single season – – Hawaii
4. David Klingler – – 54 TD passes in a single season – – Houston
5. B.J. Symons – – 52 TD passes in a single season – – Texas Tech
6. Dwayne Haskins – – 50 TD passes in a single season – – Ohio St.
7. David Carr – – 50 TD passes in single season – – Fresno St.
8. Sam Bradford – – 50 TD passes in a single season – – Oklahoma
9. Brandon Doughty – – 49 TD passes in a single season – – W. Kentucky
10. Anthony Gordon – – 48 TD passes in a single season – – Washington St.
11. Derek Carr – – 48 TD passes in a single season – – Fresno St.
12. Case Keenum – – 48 TD passes in a single season – – Houston

            College football and NFL football are two different games and projecting success at the college level onto the NFL level is not an easy thing to do – – particularly at the QB position.  On that list of 12 highly competent QBs in college, I would argue that only one – – Joe Burrow – – is rightfully compared to the top NFL QBs as he was compared to top college QB.  In addition to Burrow:

• The Carr brothers – – David and Derek – – were starters in the NFL for several years but neither ever really ascended to “star status”.
• Sam Bradford made a lot of money off NFL owners and GMs who signed him to big contracts, but he never “lit it up” at the pro level.
• Maybe – – MAYBE – – some day Dwayne Haskins might have become a competent QB in the NFL but the Grim Reaper saw to it that we will never know if that might have happened.

The NFL and NCAA football are different games particularly for QBs.  When a college QB who has innate/God-given talent breaks the huddle and “surveys the opposing defense”, the chances are that he might be playing against one or maybe two defenders who are of NFL caliber.  Most college QBs in most of their games have a couple of opposing defenders who are – – to be polite – – easy pickins.

Now take that same QB to the NFL and when he breaks the huddle and “surveys the opposing defense” he is going to see 11 NFL caliber defenders staring at him fully anticipating making his life miserable at best.  Sure, some defenders are better than others; and indeed, the QB’s coaches will try to exploit the weaker defenders on the other side of the ball.  However, that “weak sister” on an NFL defense is still a mile-and-a-half better than what the new NFL QB was used to facing in his college days just a year ago.

This is not a knock on Fernando Mendoza; I think he fully deserved to win the Heisman Trophy; I will in my Pre-Draft Analysis come April call him out as the best QB in the Draft.  And, frankly, I hope he works out positively for the Raiders or for whichever team trades with the Raiders to acquire Mendoza.  But it is not a layup …

I think the overriding way of looking at this Draft-and-Hope Scenario is the sports version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.  In quantum physics, you cannot know the position and the velocity of a particle exactly at the same time; the more precise you are in measuring one of those variables, the less precise will be your measurement of the other.  Here, the more you know about college football stats does not diminish the uncertainty of projecting a player into the NFL at a competent level, but it is still not an exact science.

Finally, the only person who can logically close today’s rant is Werner Heisenberg:

“Certainly, in the course of time, the splendid things will separate from the hateful.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Late last week, government regulators approved a deal between ESPN and the NFL wherein the NFL gets a 10% stake in ESPN and ESPN gets a couple more games to televise and control of NFL Network and the Red Zone Channel.  Various reports have called this a “blockbuster” and a “multi-billion dollar deal”; normally, I would associate those sorts of labels to deals that would have a positive effect on my life; in this case, I sense there could be more negative than positive effects.

ESPN is a far cry from what it used to be.  I know that the “E” in ESPN stands for “Entertainment”; but in the beginning, it was mostly sports.  Now ESPN shows us some sports but most of its time on the air is filled up with talking heads talking about sports.  And because the NFL has brilliantly devised an information space that fills up the entire calendar, much of what ESPN talks about is NFL football.  Don’t get me wrong, most of that the NFL does is good stuff and the league does it quite well; but they are not perfect.

So, in the circumstances where the NFL “screwed up” on something, how am I supposed to hear ESPN’s take on the issue when the “offending party” so to speak is a 10% owner of the reporting entity?  The terms “journalism” and “journalist” get tossed around prodigiously these days adorning lots of people that I do not consider performing anything resembling “reporting” or “investigating” or “enlightening”.  So, if I now have to consider that the person on my screen talking to me is also and employee of the entity being “reported upon”, should I believe much of what they are saying?

One item in the reports of this agreement is not yet clear to me.  According to the report in The Athletic,

“The NFL and ESPN will do away with the “Monday Night Football” doubleheaders, shifting four of its overall games to NFL Network.

“ESPN will broadcast 28 games per season, including NFL Network’s seven. NFL Network retained three games it already had. ESPN previously had 25 games. The NFL took back four games that it is expected to sell, potentially to one of the streamers.”

It is not clear to me where those four “MNF doubleheader games” will sit on the NFL schedule next season.  Clearly, they will not be on Monday nights, but where might they be going?

Moving on …  There was a report in the Washington Post last weekend under the headline:

• NFL may not be done adjusting its kickoffs

Two years ago, the NFL got rid of the “old-fashioned kickoff” opting to try what was basically a UFL version of the play.  The intent at the time placed a large focus on trying to minimize player-injuries on kickoffs – – a goal that most people should find agreeable.  In Year One, there was a dramatic decrease in injuries attributed to kickoffs despite a greater number of attempted returns; however, in Year Two, the number of concussions was increased as compared to Year One.  Therefore, the league’s Competition Committee is going to take a look at the current situation and see if there are ways to make it better.

Personally, I think the rules need to be tweaked.  Absent the injury dimension, I greatly prefer the “old-fashioned” kickoffs – – the ones still in use in college football.  Yes, there are more returns now that the NFL “penalizes” kickers who simply put the ball into the stands beyond the end line eliminating the possibility of any return.  However, the greater number of kickoff returns have begun to look formulaic.

• Kicker pins the receiver near one sideline around the 5 yardline
• Defenders hem the receiver in on that side of the field.
• Tackle occurs somewhere between the 25 and 32 yardline.
• First and ten…

I do not want to see more injuries; if the NFL’s numbers say that the new rules show an increasing number of concussions, they need to change something.

Switching gears …  If I have followed this story sufficiently closely, the NY Jets have fired just about everyone on the coaching staff save for the Strength Coach and the Special Teams Coordinator.  A season record of 3-14-0 with a point differential of minus-207 points will do that to a coaching staff.  However, allow me two observations there:

1. Those guys who were fired were hired about a year ago by Aaron Glenn and Aaron Glenn is going to select the folks who will be the Jets’ coaching staff next year.
2. Should the Jets stink again in 2026, there might not be a large number of others for Aaron Glenn to blame for poor performance; the records may show some sort of consistency but in the coaching staff there is very little that would be constant year over year.

Finally, I’ll close today with this from Margaret Mead:

“Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This is the next-to-last Football Friday for the season; my long-suffering wife suggested that I would be happy to see all of that “deadline pressure” finished until late next summer.  She doesn’t understand the rhythm and the focus that Football Friday brings to the table.  I will actually miss doing these after next week.

As usual, I shall begin here with the results from last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals:              2-0-0
• Season to Date:                     42-43-2

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             0-1                   Loss = $100
• Season to Date:                     17-26               Profit = $357

  

College Football Commentary:

The TV numbers are in for the CFP Championship Game between Indiana and Miami, and the numbers are most impressive.  I have no idea how the Nielsen folks make their determinations of audience size, but here are the data:

• Average viewing audience = 30.1million viewers
• Peak viewing audience = 33.2 million viewers

Even if those numbers are inflated somehow by 25%, that is still a huge TV audience for a game involving one team that is the antitheses of a “college football blueblood.”  According to one report I read, this was the largest TV audience for something other than an NFL telecast since Game 7 of the 2016 MLB World Series.  In case you don’t immediately recall that watershed event, it was the Chicago Cubs that won that Game 7 over the Cleveland Guardians giving the Cubbies their first World Championship since 1908  Oh, by the way, that baseball game went into “OT” or extra innings as they call it in baseball.

NFL Commentary: 

The Baltimore Ravens hired Jesse Minter to be the successor to John Harbaugh in “Charm City”.  I am not going to pretend to know a lot about Jesse Minter other than to say that he was the Defensive Coordinator for the Chargers in the 2024 and 2025 seasons.  It would be difficult to suggest that he was a failure in that role.  One thing is certain in that hiring decision; the Ravens’ coach should bring a much younger perspective to the job than did John Hartbaugh:

• John Harbaugh will be 64 years old in September 2026
• Jesse Minter will be 43 years old in May 2026

Meanwhile, the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy as their new head coach.  That decision represents two major deviations for the Steelers franchise:

1. Steelers’ coaches have been on the job for 15 years or more since the late 1960s.  Mike McCarthy will be 63 years old in November 2026; I would not be penciling him in as the Steelers’ head coach come 2040.
2. Mike McCarthy is basically an “offensive guy”.  The last two Steelers’ coaches – – Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher – – have been “defensive guys” who have set up the image and the narrative of Steelers’ teams since 1992.

The Cleveland Browns hired Todd Monken as their head coach.  His calling card is as an offensive coordinator; some if not all of his recent success in Baltimore has to be attributed to Lamar Jackson playing the QB position.  I am not a Shedeur Sanders’ hater, but I cannot bring myself to think that Monken will have the same talent level at QB in Cleveland that he did in Baltimore for the last few years.  Then again, Monken is 60 years old and this is his first NFL head coaching gig; it’s not like he is looking at this job as a stepping stone leading to another 25 years in the league.

The Buffalo Bills promoted from within and have hired Joe Brady as their new head coach; Brady has been the offensive coordinator in Buffalo for the last two years.  His ascension to the top job can be seen as organizational stability if that is what you want to see.  However, something about that decision makes little sense to me:

• In explaining why ownership fired Sean McDermott, one of the major points made was that the owner sensed a hugely negative vibe in the losing locker room after the Bills lost to the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the playoffs this year.
• Let me assume that the owner(s) indeed sensed all that and that the owner(s) concluded that something had to change and then decided that it was the coach that had to change and not the players or the GM or any other factotum in the organization.
• OK, so riddle me this…?  Joe Brady was part of the coaching staff in Buffalo in a variety of roles since 2022.  How does he represent an organizational reset to change the vibe in the locker room?

Unless I missed something recently, there are still two open jobs as the head coaches of NFL teams.  The Cards and the Raiders are still prowling about looking for a new leader.  Those are two BAD jobs.

• Neither team has a bona fide QB.  I think the Kyler Murray Era in Arizona is over and even if the Raiders draft Fernando Mendoza, it will be a while until he possibly leads them to respectability as measured these days by a 9-8-0 record.
• The Cards spent a lot of money on their defense in the last offseason and it led to nothing formidable on the field.
• The Raiders have – in my opinion – 4 players on their roster who could be considered “difference makers” if they were not the only players on the roster who were competent pro players.
• Any coach taking either of those jobs needs to be sure that his agent has an iron-clad clause in there to assure full payment of the deal when – not if – this new coach gets shown the door.

Just for fun, please consider these two coaching records:

• Coach A:  Nine years with the same team; five times in the playoffs; regular season record = 82-67-0; playoff record = 9-5.
• Coach B:  Nine years with the same team; eight times in the playoffs; regular season record = 98-50-0; playoff record = 8-8.

            Those two résumés are comparable.

• Coach B is Sean McDermott who was just fired after losing a playoff game by a field goal.
• Coach A is Kyle Shanahan whose team was clocked in this year’s playoffs by 5 TDs.
• Hmmm …

The Pro Bowl Games will happen this weekend and I will miss every moment of the “action”.  However, there is a comment that needs to be made here:

• It is finally time to apply euthanasia to the Pro Bowl and any of its variants such as a flag football game.
• Shedeur Sanders was just “elevated” to Pro Bowl status because Drake Maye is otherwise occupied by preparing for a Super Bowl game.
• Shedeur Sanders threw 7 TDs this year and 10 INTs.
• Shedeur Sanders is in the Pro Bowl over the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and/or Trevor Lawrence.  Don’t bother comparing those QB stats with Sanders’ stats.  Oh, and if some NFL “official” says that the likes of Burrow, Jackson and Lawrence were invited to be in the pro Bowl but declined, consider that those players are sending the same message to the league that I will send here – – only in not nearly so subtle terms:
  • • If such is the honor of “Pro Bowl Status” as of February 2026, the time has come to – – as George Burns used to say – – “say goodnight Gracie”.

Last week’s Games:

Pats 10  Broncos 7:  I said it at the time and I will say it again here; the game changed completely when the Broncos led 7-0 and had the ball 4^th and 1 at about the Pats’ 10-yardline – – and they went for it and failed instead of taking the chip shot field goal.  I don’t know what the analytics say in that situation and I don’t care what the analytics say in that situation, failing to take a two-score lead at that point in the game was a blunder.  For the last decade, the narrative has been that Sean Payton is an offensive genius and a play-caller extraordinaire.  Well not last week…

The Pats’ defense gave up one long completion to Jarrett Stidham in the first quarter and it led to the only score for the Broncos with 10:19 left in the first quarter.  From that point on, the Pats’ defense looked almost like the Steel Curtain Defense; the Broncos gained 59 yards on that early TD drive; for the game the Broncos gained a total of only 181 yards for the day.   Or maybe it was just that Jarrett Stidham demonstrated on a national stage just why he has been a career backup QB since coming to the league in 2019.

Having said all that, let me be clear that the Pats’ offense was not exactly humming along; the Pats Total Offense was a measly 206 yards in the game; that unit will need to do a lot better than that next week.

If you like punts and punt returns, this was a game for you; the teams combined to punt the ball 14 times.

 

Seahawks 31  Rams 27:  There was another play-calling blunder in this game too.  With about 5 minutes left in the game, the Rams had the ball at the Seahawks 6 yardline with a fourth-and-four trailing by 4 points.  Instead of taking the field goal and making it a ”field-goal game” as opposed to a “touchdown game”, the Rams went for it and failed.  [Anyone else see any parallelism here?].

Sam Darnold put to rest the critics for his stinker of a game in the playoffs last year with the Vikes; consider these stats:

• Darnold: 25 of 36 for 346 yards with 3 TDs and a passer rating of  127.8
• Stafford: 22 of 35 for 374 yards with 3 TDs and a passer rating of 127.6

Matthew Stafford might just be the league’s MVP this season and Sam Darnold was his equal on this day.  Moreover, in clutch situations, Darnold outplayed Stafford:

• Seahawks converted 7 of 13 third-down situations
• Rams converted 1 of 8 third-down situations.

There are no games this week.  Ergo, there is no “Betting Bundle” and the look-ahead to the Super Bowl – – nine days from now – – will have to wait until next Friday.

So let me close this next-to-last Football Friday with these words of wisdom from Bill Parcells:

“I think confrontation is healthy, because it clears the air very quickly.”

And …

“I can’t live my life worrying about something that might never happen.”

And …

“There are two things in New York, euphoria and disaster.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

The new inductees to the Pro Football Hall of Fame will not be officially announced until February 5^th; however, there are reports all over the Internet saying that the voters did not elect Bill Belichick in his first year of eligibility.  The backlash to that news – – I am assuming that it is correct – – has been wide-ranging from sports commentators (Ryan Clark) to Hall of Fame football players (JJ Watt/Tom Brady) to NBA stars (LeBron James).  I have not seen any mention of a US Senator taking the floor to speak on this matter yet; but do not rule it out.

I am of two minds on this:

1. Clearly, Bill Belichick’s coaching record is Hall of Fame worthy; if his record is deemed to be insufficient, then most coaches inducted into the Hall to date need to be expelled.  If this “omission” is corrected in the next year or two, then the voters who “blocked” his election this year can claim to have made a point regarding some of the scandals that tracked his career in New England.  And at that point, all will be well.
2. Alternatively, if this turns out to be nothing but pettiness on the part of media folks who covered the Pats during Belichick’s time there and who were “offended” by his conduct and demeanor in those required press conferences, then it is they who should be sanctioned or shunned.  Maybe – – I said maybe – – there is a case to be made for considering “scandals” in the voting process for the Hall of Fame but there is not room for pettiness or score-settling.

Moving on …  The Commissioners of five major professional sports were supposed to meet with President Trump earlier this week, but the meeting was postponed by the snow and ice event that crippled the DC area.  The agenda for the meeting was reported to be about sports events related to the celebration of the 250^th “birthday” of the United States in 2026.  We already know about two planned events:

1. There will be a UFC program held on the White House lawn on Flag Day.  The weigh-in for the fights will take place at the Lincoln Memorial [Please do not ask me to explain the reason for that.] and the fighters will make their way to the ring from the Oval Office [Why not?].
2. There will be a four-day event called “Patriot Games” featuring one boy and one girl from every state.  I have not seen any details as to what sort of competition(s) will happen at the Patriot Games so far.

Presumably, the President and the Commissioners will discuss any celebrations or festivities related to “America’s Birthday” that the leagues or the teams have planned.  The NFL has already announced some plans to have an “America 250” logo emblazoned on sidelines and coins for tossing and things of that nature.  I assume the other commissioners will arrive with ideas and pledges to do commemorative things during their seasons and at their high-profile events.

Switching gears …  Late last week, there were reports that the FBI had opened an investigation into the death of Indy Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay.  According to reports in the Washington Post, the investigation may also include Dr. Harry Haroutinian, an addiction specialist in California, who may have prescribed meds for Irsay prior to his passing.  No autopsy was done after Irsay’s death; that circumstance could lead investigators to seek an exhumation and a chemical analysis.  When Jim Irsay died, I said that he should rest in peace; an exhumation would interrupt that peace.

Finally, since I opened today with news about Bill Belichick, let me close with this from Coach Belichick:

“It’s not all about talent. It’s about dependability, consistency, and being able to improve. If you work hard and you’re coachable, and you understand what you need to do, you can improve.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………