Fading Fame

Over the past week or so, I have seen a variety of reports with headlines that follow this line of thinking:

  • Ben Simmons demands a trade … Ben Simmons will not report to training camp … Superstar wants out of Philly

After the way the Sixers exited the playoffs a couple of months ago and given the way the fans and sports media in Philly have “dealt with” that debacle, I am sure that Ben Simmons has gotten the message that the fans do not want him back on the team.  I am not the least bit surprised that he wants to be traded nor would I be surprised to learn that the Sixers will be looking to move him.  What confuses me is that some folks who report on the NBA consider Ben Simmons to be a “superstar”.  I do not.

Simmons is an excellent passer, and he is as good a defender as there is in the NBA these days.  However, basketball is a game that requires players to be able to put the ball in the basket on a more than occasional basis; NBA games do not end with scores of 21-18.  Ben Simmons lack of scoring ability keeps him from being a “superstar” because of the seriousness of that hole in his game.

Certainly, the Sixers’ front office will try to maintain a narrative that Simmons is a superstar and that the Sixers will demand a heavy ransom from any team that wants to take on his services.  If GM Daryl Morey can pull that off, he has a great retirement gig waiting for him as a used car salesman.

Speaking of retirement, a strange sequence of events over the past couple of days has placed former UConn football coach, Randy Edsall in retirement.  Eleven days ago, UConn was pantsed by Fresno State to the tune of 45-0; last Saturday was even worse.  At least Fresno State is a Division 1-A team and they showed well in their second game of the year losing to Oregon by only a TD.  UConn was not nearly so competitive in their second outing of the season.

Last week was supposed to be a cupcake game for the Huskies as they took on Division 1-AA Holy Cross.  The final tally had the Huskies on the short end of a 38-28 score.  Moreover, this was not a fluke win by the Crusaders on some sort of lucky bounce of the football.  Holy Cross gained 100 more yards on offense than UConn did.

On Monday morning, Randy Edsall said that he was going to retire at the end of the 2021 season – presumably to spend more time with his family.  I remember thinking at the time that he might have come to that decision as a means of avoiding being separated from the school before the end of the season, but that did not matter all that much.

Then yesterday came the news that Randy Edsall had retired and that the defensive coordinator would be the acting head coach for the rest of 2021.  The irony in that situation from my perspective is that the defensive coordinator is the guy in charge of the team unit that yielded 38 points to Holy Cross.  For that, he gets a “promotion”?

Here is the PR statement regarding this retirement situation from the UConn Athletic Director:

“Upon further reflection by both Randy and I (sic), and after having the opportunity to visit with Randy today, we are both in agreement that it is in the best interest of our student-athletes to have a new voice leading UConn football,”

Here is what I think is the best outcome for UConn:

  • Either drop back down to Division 1-AA … or …
  • Eliminate football entirely.

There is no great tradition of UConn football; college football as an activity is not important in Connecticut or in New England – possibly apart from the campus of Boston College.  I am sure there is a rich alum of UConn or two who dream of big things for UConn football; even if they bankroll the program to keep it in Division 1-A, it will be decades before anyone utters the phrase:

  • UConn is the Alabama of New England.

I want to take a moment here to make two quick statements:

  1. Randy Edsall was one of my College Coaches on a Hot Seat just two weeks ago.
  2. Randy Edsall will probably enjoy retirement more than he would have enjoyed being on the UConn sidelines for the rest of 2021.

Moving on…  About a month ago, I mentioned here that Clinton Portis was facing some serious legal issues.  He owed a woman about $150K in child support and had defied a court order related to that matter; that got the judge in Florida to issue an arrest warrant for Portis.  Simultaneously, Portis and a half dozen other defendants were indicted in Federal court for insurance fraud.  That trial ended in a hung jury and Portis’ lawyers must have gotten a reasonable deal from the prosecutors because Portis subsequently pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit health care fraud.

These charges carry a maximum sentence of 10 years and a fine of not more than $250,000 or twice the gross financial gain from the fraud. He will make restitution of $99,264 to the Gene Upshaw NFL Players Health Reimbursement Account Plan.  Portis admitted that he took part in a scheme to defraud the plan through “false pretenses, representations, and promises.” Basically, he admitted that he made false claims for benefits under the health plan for retired NFL players.

Finally, the three protagonists of stories related today can see their fame fading just a bit.  So, I will close here with Mark Twain’s view of “fame”:

“Fame is a vapor; popularity an accident; the only earthly certainty is oblivion.”

But don’t get me wrong ,I love sports………

 

 

NFL Predictions Team By Team For 2021

Last week saw the start of the college football season; this week, the NFL makes its entry onto the US sporting scene.  As has been customary in these parts, I try to do a bunch of predictions before things get underway for real just to demonstrate the wisdom in the adage:

  • Prediction is very difficult – – particularly when it involves the future.

But I am not one who is ashamed of being wrong, so I shall continue to “give it a go” again in 2021.  In the process of forecasting the future, it is inevitable that I will be wrong about many team performances.  When I underestimate the success of a team, there are two things you must keep in mind:

  1. I do not hate that team, its coach, its fans and/or the city it represents.
  2. I do not owe that team, its coach, its fans and/or the city it represents an apology because all that took place is that I made an error which I will readily acknowledge after it happens.

I begin these predictive pieces with my list of eight NFL Coaches on a Hot Seat.  I do not expect all of them to be canned at the end of the year, but I do think all will come in for some pointed critiques along the way in 2021.   I will present them here in alphabetical order:

  1. David Cully (Texans):  Yes, I know this will be his first season in Houston and I also know that the Texans are going to be awful this year through no fault of Coach Cully.  Nevertheless, I doubt that he will be a fan favorite there and while he will likely survive into the 2022 season, his seat starts out warm and will only increase in temperature as the season progresses.
  2. Vic Fangio (Broncos):  The Broncos are 12-20 over the past two seasons with Fangio in charge.  I think a winning record and serious contention for a playoff spot – if not the playoffs themselves – will be necessary for him to be the coach in Denver in 2022.
  3. Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals):  The Cards are 13-18-1 over the past two seasons with Kingsbury in charge.  His offense led by Kyler Murray has been splashy and exciting – – at times.  However, overall success has not happened.  I think he will need a playoff appearance to survive into 2022.
  4. Matt LeFleur (Packers):  I put him here not because of his record in Green Bay; it is a good one.  His problem is Aaron Rodgers and Rodgers’ “happiness” with the team.  If that relationship becomes strained – or goes in the dumper entirely – LeFleur might find his job in jeopardy.
  5. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys):  The Cowboys were 6-10 last year – McCarthy’s first year in Dallas.  The team is highly regarded this year; they have plenty of offensive weapons – enough to win shoot-out games.  Can McCarthy and his staff piece together enough defense to be a playoff team?  I think that is what Jerry Jones expects…
  6. Matt Nagy (Bears):  In his first season in Chicago, he led the Bears to a 12-4 record and the NFC North title.  In the next two seasons, the Bears have been 8-8.  Nagy’s seat is not nearly as hot as some others on this list – – unless things come apart at the seams and the Bears finish at something like 6-11.
  7. Zac Taylor (Bengals):  I put him here even though I am confident he will be the coach in Cincy next  year.  The basis for his position here is that reports lead me to conclude that expectations for the Bengals are sky-high with the return of Joe Burrow and the maturing of the young roster – – notwithstanding a Bengals’ record of 6-25-1 over the past 2 seasons.  But the Bengals play in a very difficult division and are not going to meet sky-high expectations.  The reason Taylor will be back in Cincy in 2022 is that he has time and money left on his contract there and the Bengals notoriously do not like to pay coaches not to coach.
  8. Mike Zimmer (Vikings):  He has been the Vikes’ head coach for 7 seasons now; he has been in the playoffs 3 times; his coaching record in Minnesota is 64-47-1.  I put him here because there is no positive trend to his teams’ performances, and it may be that fans and ownership in Minnesota may want to “go in a different direction.

Before getting into specifics about the upcoming 2021 season, let me present an observation from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot from several months ago:

Looking back: The next NFL schedule won’t have more than three exhibition games per team. It’s incredible that before the league moved to 16 games in 1978, teams played six preseason dates. Six!”

Given the injury-phobia that is clearly exhibited by many teams/coaches around the league, try to imagine who would be on the field in six Exhibition Games in 2021.  But Molinaro is absolutely correct; there used to be 6 of those meaningless games prior to every season.  When – not if but when – the NFL and the NFLPA come to an agreement on how much more of a percentage of revenue needs to go to players to accept an 18th regular season game with 2 Bye Weeks in the regular season schedule for each team, I hope they cut the Exhibition Game schedule to one or two games at the most.

NFL players have an adage:

  • Father Time has never missed a tackle.

Before anyone leaps to inform me that Tom Brady is 44 years old and is still “going strong”, that adage is something fans and coaches need to keep in mind.   So, let me list here six players who just might feel Father Time’s presence as the season wears on.  Please note, all the players I have here are ones who have had laudatory careers; they are ones who I think might be coming close to entering the “next phase” of their lives:

  1. Calais Campbell: He is 35 years old and that is pushing it for a defensive lineman and pass rusher.
  2. Ezekiel Elliott:  He is not old – 26 years old to be specific.  However, he has had almost 1700 touches in his career to date; that is a lot of pounding on his body.
  3. Derrick Henry:  He is not old – 27 years old to be specific.  However, he has led the NFL in rushing attempts for each of the past two seasons carrying the ball a total of 681 times in those two seasons; that is a lot of pounding on his body too.
  4. AJ Green:  He is 33 years old and entering his 10th NFL season.  He may have lost a step because in 2020 he caught 47 passes for 523 yards in 16 games.  Just two seasons ago in 2019, he caught 46 passes for 694 yards in only 9 games.
  5. Ben Roethlisberger:  He is entering his 18th NFL season at age 39.  He appeared in 15 games last year, but his yards-per-completion  were the lowest of his career by a significant margin save for an injury season in 2019.
  6. Andrew Whitworth:  He will be 40 years old in early December when he and the Rams hope to be playing meaningful games.  Go to Google Images and check out a recent photo of Whitworth and you will understand why the term “gray-beard” is appropriate…

Before I leave the “Father Time” portion of this piece entirely, here is another item I found in a column by Bob Molinaro:

“Tidbit: Tom Brady is only the second quarterback to start an NFL conference championship game in three decades. The other: Johnny Unitas of the Baltimore Colts.”

Now it is time for my predictions team-by-team in the 8 NFL Divisions.  I shall start in the AFC East:

  • Bills: I think they win this division handily with a 13-4 record.  As far as I can see, the only weakness I see is a mediocre running game.  Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs by themselves make for a potent pass offense; adding Emmanuel Sanders to the roster makes it even better.  The Bills’ defense played well in the final months of last season and should be strong again this year.  One cautionary note I would point out is that the Bills have an outspoken and hard-over contingent of ant-vax players.  Should that cause game difficulties, that problem might become a serious locker room issue.
  • Patriots:  I think the Pats finish second in this division at 10-7.  I am not ready to anoint Mac Jones as a star QB at the NFL level – and truth be told he does not have an outstanding set of pass-catchers with him – but I do believe that he can operate in the Josh McDaniel offensive milieu.
  • Dolphins:  I think the Fins come third here with a 9-8 record.  I know that others are much higher on the team than I am.  I worry about their QB situation.  The proclamation has been that Tua is their guy; then there have been persistent rumors that the team is talking with the Texans about trading for Deshaun Watson – should he ever be allowed on an NFL field again.  Those two things just do not go together, and I think the Dolphins will underperform the high expectations many folks have for this team in 2021.

[Aside:  Personally, I think Tua is not the answer at QB for an NFL team that aspires to serious playoff participation.  He just does not give me confidence when he drops back to pass.]

  • Jets:  I think the Jets will finish last in the division at 3-14.  The team has had a bunch of training camp injuries and the effect of those injuries on a thin roster to begin with will prevent the Jets from showing much improvement.  Zach Wilson shows a lot of promise, and many folks think he will be a star in the NFL for a decade or so.  Even if that is completely correct, it is not going to matter much in 2021; he will see lots of pressure behind an offensive line that was damaged by an injury to Mekhi Becton.

Moving on to the AFC North – this is going to be a very strong division in 2021 and the strength of the division opponents could make some of the strong teams appear to be less successful:

  • Ravens: I like the Ravens to win this division at 12-5.  The loss of RB, JK Dobbins for the season is a challenge for the Ravens’ offense, but I still think the rest of the roster is strong.  Lamar Jackson took a half-step back last year; I think he takes a full step ahead this year.  The Ravens are a balanced team being strong on offense, defense and special teams.
  • Browns:  I like the Browns to finish second in the division on a tiebreaker; the Browns will also go 12-5.  The schedule-maker has an interesting angle for the Browns and Ravens in late November and early December.  The Browns play at Baltimore, then get a BYE Week, then host Baltimore.  Over the same three weeks, the Ravens host the Browns, play at the Steelers and then at the Browns.  The Browns’ defense should be improved with the return of Greedy Williams to the defensive backfield.  The Browns also acquired Jadeveon Clowney; that may or may not be a blessing.  What the Browns need most is for that defensive unit to improve from last year; the offense was fine, but the defense was just okay.  The RB tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is as good as any in the league.
  • Steelers:  I think the Steelers go 9-8.  That prediction is based on the soundness of Ben Roethlisberger’s arm/elbow.  I said above that he may be on the precipice of his career but if his arm is healthy enough to make defenses worry about a pass more than 8 or 9 yards downfield, the Steelers can be a tough out because of the Steelers’ defense.  However, if Roethlisberger is ineffective or injured again and the Steelers have to turn to Mason Rudolph and/or Dwayne Haskins, my prediction of a 9-8 record should be wildly optimistic.  Remember, the Steelers started last year with an 11-0 record and finished at 12-4 when it became obvious in December that they could not stretch the field.  The Steelers running game should be better with the addition of first round pick, Najee Harris.
  • Bengals:  I think the Bengals finish at 5-12 which shows improvement but not excellence.  The schedule-maker was not kind to the Bengals back-loading the team schedule with a difficult final six weeks.  Over that stretch the Bengals host the Chargers, host the Niners, at the Broncos, host the Ravens, host the Chiefs, at the Browns.

Next up is the AFC South.  There are two good teams in this division and two pretty miserable teams too:

  • Titans:  I like the Titans to win the division at 11-6.  The Titans have a tough stretch on the schedule in October/November.  In that time, the Titans play home against the Bills, home against the Chiefs, at the Colts, at the Rams, home against the Saints.  Ryan Tannehill can now seek out Julio Jones AND AJ Brown on pass plays; presumably, that will offset the free-agency losses of Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis.  If the Titans improve their passing game, it will take some of the load – and the wear and tear – off Derrick Henry.
  • Colts:  I think the Colts finish second here at 9-8.  When the Colts acquired Carson Wentz to replace the retired Philip Rivers, I thought the Colts might take over this division but Wentz’ foot injury and his COVID quarantine make me wonder about his availability over a 17-game schedule.  The Colts’ defense is good; the team needs to be able to score points and to do that they need their QB to be ready and able.  The early part of the 2021 season could be “make or break” for the Colts.  Here are the first 5 weeks: host Seahawks, host Rams, at Titans, at Dolphins, at Ravens.  Ouch!
  • Jags:  I think the Jags finish third in the division at 3-14.  Don’t sneer, that is three times as many games as the Jags won in 2020.  I think Trevor Lawrence will play well – so long as he can stay uninjured behind a sub-standard offensive line; he may need to run for his life to stay healthy.  I do not expect miracles from Urban Meyer, but I also did not anticipate the screw-ups that have happened already under his regime – – the Tim Tebow distraction and the outrageous hiring of the strength coach just to name a couple.  The day after Christmas, NFL fans in NYC will get the scheduling equivalent of a lump of coal in their stockings.  On the 26th of December, the Jags travel to NYC to play the Jets.  At stake will likely be draft position for next April.
  • Texans:  I think the Texans will finish dead last in the division – and in the NFL – with a record of 2-15.  I think the Texans will split with the Jags in divisional games and will win a home game against the Jets in last November.  That prediction is based on my guess that Deshaun Watson never sees the field in 2021 as his criminal and civil actions related to sexual assault wend their way through the US legal system.  Without Watson, the Texans could challenge the Jags and/or Lions for the worst offense in the league.  The defensive unit is nothing to write home about either…

[Aside:  The legal issues surrounding Deshaun Watson are not of the Texans’ doing but the new regime there did not cover itself in glory during the offseason.  This is a team that needs to overcome the giving away of DeAndre Hopkins for a bag of donut holes and the defection of JJ Watt.  So, there is how the new guys approached their roster rebuild.  They traded to acquire Shaq Lawson from the Dolphins in exchange for linebacker Bernardrick McKinney.  They revamped Lawson’s contract converting salary to signing bonus to the tune of $7M.  That was in the Spring; in the past two weeks, they sent Lawson off to the Jets in exchange for a 6th round pick next year.  Is that how you rebuild a devastated roster?  The Texans’ Front Office reminds me of those glorious days when Danny Boy Snyder was a hands-on owner and he had Vinny Cerrato as his “consigliere”…]

Finally for the AFC, here is the AFC West:

  • Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs win this division comfortably at 14-3.  The schedule starts out rough for the Chiefs.  For the first 7 weeks they host the Browns, at the Ravens, host the Chargers, at the Eagles, host the Bills, at the Football Team, at the Titans.  I think the Chiefs will be 5-2 at that part of the season and then assert themselves in the mid-season and down the stretch.  The Chiefs are potent on offense because they are fast; they have a great QB and TE and they can run the football.  The offensive line is revamped with acquisitions via trade and free agency plus the return of a lineman who opted out of the 2020 season.
  • Chargers:  I think the Chargers will finish second here with a record of 10-7.  Justin Herbert is for real; it will be fun to see him go against Patrick Mahomes twice a year for the foreseeable future.  Free safety, Derwin James, was an All-Pro first team selection in his rookie year in 2018; he played 5 games in 2019 and missed all of the 2020 season.  If he is healthy, the Chargers’ defense just gets better.
  • Raiders:  I see the Raiders finishing in third place here with a 7-10 record.  There is just too much drama associated with this team and with the coach and with the GM and with the owner.  The final 7 games on their schedule are not easy.  They play at the Cowboys, host the Football Team, at the Chiefs, at the Browns, host the Broncos, at the Colts host the Chargers to end the season.
  • Broncos:  I think the Broncos finish last in the division with a 5-12 record.  That is going to get their coach fired.  In their continuing search for a quality starting QB – something they have been doing ever since Peyton Manning retired in 2015 – the Broncos acquired Teddy Bridgewater.  That is an improvement over the days when they were trotting folks like Paxton Lynch and/or Brock Osweiler out onto the field.  However, Teddy Bridgewater is not a franchise QB now or ever.

[Aside:  I ran across this stat somewhere but did not note where I got it.  According to whomever, the Broncos’ Teddy Bridgewater will be the 11th starting QB they have used since Manning’s retirement.  I think that is correctly referred to as a revolving door situation.]

So, here are the AFC playoff teams:

  • Chiefs – #1 seed, BYE week in the playoffs, home field in the playoffs
  • Bills – #2 seed
  • Ravens – #3 seed
  • Titans – #4 seed
  • Browns – first wildcard
  • Chargers – second wildcard
  • Patriots – final wildcard

            And now over the NFC, where I will begin in with the NFC West.  Top to bottom, this is the best division in the NFL; the team that finishes last here would likely win the NFC East.

  • Seahawks:  I think they will win the division with a 13-4 record.  The schedule-maker was kind to the Seahawks in December/January giving Seattle games against the Texans, Bears and Lions in the last five weeks.  There was far too much hyperbole and drama in the offseason abut Russell Wilson demanding to be traded.  That did not happen; I seriously doubt it was ever close to happening; he is back with the Seahawks and will lead them to the playoffs.
  • Niners:  I think they finish second in the division at 10-7.  They were injury-riddled in 2020 and the “return” of players like Nick Bosa and Dee Ford should improve the defense significantly.  Deebo Samuel only played 7 games for the Niners last year and his return will be a plus for the offense.  Jimmy Garoppolo and/or Trey Lance should be good enough to provide a winning season for the team.
  • Rams:  I think the Rams finish third in the division with a 10-7 record losing out on a tiebreaker to the Niners.  Matthew Stafford is a significant upgrade for the Rams at QB, but the team lost its defensive coordinator to a head coaching offer in the offseason.
  • Cardinals:  I think the Cardinals finish last in this division with a 9-8 record.  The Cardinals are a good team, but they are scheduled into the toughest division in the league.  As I mentioned above, I think this season will be one where people are looking for the Cards’ offense to take a big step forward with Kyler Murray at the controls.

Moving along to the NFC South:

  • Bucs:  I think the Bucs will win this division with a 14-3 record.  Somehow, the Bucs managed to win the Super Bowl last year and also to “keep the band together”. In fact, the Buds’ defense may be even better this year because they will get Vita Vey back from the injured list to play nose tackle.
  • Saints:  I think the Saints will take a stop back this year with the retirement of Drew Brees but there seems to be enough residual talent for the team to have a winning season at 10-7. Jameis Winston won the starting job in New Orleans; he has weapons around him, and he has Sean Payton as the offensive guru there.  This is a time for Winston to show that he can lead a team efficiently and minimize his abundant turnovers.
  • Panthers:  I see the Panthers climbing out of the division basement to finish third with a record of 6-11.  Matt Ruhle has had a couple of years to acquire “his guys” on the roster and I think that will start to pay off this year.  I am not nearly as sour on Sam Darnold as many other commentators seem to be; I think he was saddled with a mediocre roster and a goofy coaching staff in NYC.  The end of the schedule for the Panthers is not kind and gentle.  In their last 4 games they get a trip to play the Bills, home against the Bucs, away at the Saints and away at the Bucs.  Ouch!
  • Falcons:  I think the Falcons finish last here with a 5-12 record.  I know Julio Jones is “old” for a WR and that he had a burdensome contract but losing him from the offense will not help the Falcons’ cause at all.  I do have a cautionary sense here, however.  Last year, the Falcons were 4-12 but their point differential for the entire season was only minus-18 points.  There were 8-8 teams with comparable or worse point differentials.  If there is going to be a surprise team in the NFC, it just might be the Falcons.

Moving onto the NFC North:

  • Packers:  I like the Packers to win the division with a 13-4 record.  The Packers have won 13 games in each of the last two years; why not keep going on that sort of streak?  There was far too much offseason drama surrounding the team, its front office and Aaron Rodgers, but I think Rodgers can and will put that aside and lead the team to the division title.  An important game on the schedule is November 14 when the Seahawks come to Green Bay to play the Packers.  I think that game will have specific playoff tie-breaker significance.
  • Vikes:  I think the Vikes will finish a distant second in this division at 8-9.  From Halloween through the end of November, the Vikes’ schedule is difficult.  They are home against the Cowboys, at the Ravens, at the Chargers, home against the Packers and at the Niners.
  • Bears:  I think the Bears will finish third in the division at 6-11.  Then, the Bears will be looking for a new head coach in the offseason.  Maybe Justin Fields is their QB of the future, but Andy Dalton is their QB of the present and with what is around Dalton that is a ticket to mediocrity.
  • Lions:  I see the Lions trailing everyone in the division – – and in the NFC – – finishing with a 3-14 record.  When I look at the Lions’ roster, I find myself not looking for stars at various position; I am looking for people who I think are average players at their position.  Dan Campbell got a 6-year contract to sign on with the Lions; he may need that long – if he survives that long – to purge this roster and build a new one from scratch.

And the final division to consider is the NFC East.  I think there are some potentially good teams here, but none are outstanding.  All four teams have serious question marks going into the season; my selection as to the order of finish represents the teams with the fewest significant question marks attached to it.

  • Football Team:  I like the Football Team to win the division with a 10-7 record.  Ron Rivera has completely revamped the roster with young players who are fast and who seem to play intelligently.  That was never the case for this team more than 2 years ago.  The question mark here is the quarterback.  Is Ryan Fitzpatrick good enough at age 38 to play an entire season under center effectively?  He need not be a star; he needs only to be steady and effective.  I think he can get it done.  The Washington defense will keep them in almost any game; this is a defensive unit that could be one of the four or five best in the league this year.
  • Cowboys:  I think they finish second here with a 9-8 record.  There are 2 question marks attached to the Cowboys.  Is Dak Prescott ready to resume his level of competency after a major ankle injury last year and a mysterious sore shoulder that kept him out of all the Exhibition Games?  Is the Cowboys’ defense going to be able to keep opponents out of the end zone this year?  The team has a new defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn, and he has a good track record as a defensive coach…

[Aside:  I have NO inside information here, but I do have a hunch.  I think the Cowboys had a plan all along not to play Dak Prescott in any Exhibition Games and that Prescott went along with that plan.  Then, to keep reporters from harping on his “recovery status” they manufactured the “shoulder injury” as a distraction. I will be watching for his first 50-yard pass attempt to Cee Dee Lamb on Thursday night.   As I said, just a hunch…]

  • Giants:  I think the Giants finish third here with a 7-10 record.  The question marks surrounding this team involve the recovery status of Saquon Barkley, the effectiveness of the offensive line and whether Daniel Jones takes another positive step in terms of his development as a QB.  There were too many stories regarding fights among the Giants’ players at training camp.  This situation just could blow into smithereens.
  • Eagles:  I think the Eagles will trail the field here and finish at 5-12.  There are plenty of question marks here including who their QB is, the game management skills of their new head coach, the corps of wide receivers and the corps of linebackers.  I am not a “Jalen Hurts-hater”, but I am not sold on his ability to be a #1 QB in the NFL.  Joe Flacco’s days as the QB of a contending NFL team are in the past.  Gardner Minshew is Jalen Hurts with a better arm and worse legs.

So, here is my projected NFC playoff structure:

  • Bucs – #1 seed, BYE Week in the playoffs, home field in the playoffs
  • Seahawks/Packers – #2 seed, goes to the winner of the Nov 14 game
  • Seahawks/Packers – #3 seed, goes to the loser of the Nov 14 game
  • Football Team – #4 seed
  • Saints – first wildcard
  • Niners – second wildcard
  • Rams – final wildcard

            Finally, since I have foretold the outcome of the upcoming NFL season, I feel like refreshing myself with an adult beverage.  And that feeling leads me to close here with an observation by the legendary dipsomaniac, W. C. Fields:

“My illness is due to my doctor’s insistence that I drink milk, a whitish fluid they force down helpless babies.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Ruminations On A Labor Day Weekend…

Happy Labor Day to all.  The plan for today in and around Curmudgeon Central is to attend a good ol’ All-American cook-out later in the day.  However, before setting off for that event, I want to take a moment to review happenings in a sport that is far more important elsewhere in the world than in the US.  That would be soccer – or futbol in some other locales.

I have no interest in starting an argument here about the greatest living soccer player, so let me assert that both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo can be considered to be in the Top Five should that discussion begin anywhere on the planet.  Both players are on new teams for this year for very different reasons.

I mentioned before that FC Barcelona somehow got themselves in a financial situation where they could not re-sign Lionel Messi based on the salary rules in place for La Liga.  How they allowed themselves to get into that situation is certainly not clear to me.  They had to have known what the rules were, and they surely knew years in advance when Messi’s contract would expire and be in need of renewal.  No matter: Messi wound up being signed by a team in the French League, Paris-Saint Germain

Ronaldo was a different story from all reports.  He had been playing for Juventus in Serie-A in Italy since 2018; after appearing in one game for Juventus this year, he reportedly told the coach/manager that he had no intention of staying with the club.  Juventus reached a deal with Manchester United in the English Premier League and Ronaldo thus returned to the place where he began his rise in the world of international soccer back in 2003.  The EPL season has just begun; Manchester United has won two of the first three games of the year.

Normally, I like looking at the bottoms of leagues to see how the downtrodden are doing.  Unfortunately, in the early stages of this year’s EPL table, there is a minor discontinuity for me.  I have a grandson who lives in Dublin, Ireland; I have previously referred to him here as The FOG – – the First and Only Grandson.  His adopted English Premier League team is Arsenal and the Gunners – – as they are called – – are not doing well at all this year.  Arsenal have played 3 games; they have yet to score a goal in any game; they have yielded 9 goals to opponents.  Not to put too fine a point on it, but Arsenal has “stunk out the joint” so far in 2021.  Not good for The Fog…

Switching gears…  Three MLB teams have been eliminated from playoff participation with a month left in the season.  You can look for lots of empty seats when the Orioles, Rangers and/or D-Backs play home games.

  • The Orioles are 42 games out of first place in the AL East.  They have the worst record in MLB (43-92) and happen to be in the same division with the team in possession of the best record in the AL – – the Tampa Bay Rays at 86-51.  Against the other four teams in the AL East, the Orioles record is a miserable 15-44.  They also have the worst run differential in MLB at minus-234.
  • The D-Backs are similarly situated in the NL; they are 42.5 games out of first place in the NL West.  They have the worst record in the NL (45-93) and happen to be in the same division with the team in possession of the best record in the MLB – – the SF Giants at 87-50.

It appears as if the folks who make programming decisions at ESPN have chosen the new direction for First Take and the show’s mainstay, Stephen A. Smith.  Max Kellerman is out, and Smith will now “debate” a rotating cast of ESPN talking heads on the program.  Two names stand out from what is a lackluster list:

  1. On Mondays, former Cowboys WR, Michael Irvin will join Stephen A. for debates about NFL football.  Irvin will be there for the entire 2 hours of the program and according to ESPN hype, “He and Smith will debate the week’s key on-the-field moments and under-the-radar stories, while also providing fans with insider news and can’t-miss analysis heading into that week’s Monday Night Football matchup and week ahead.”  If you are someone who has run low on hyperbole and/or someone who needs to hear even the most mundane point blasted at you at deafening decibels, these Monday programs are for you.
  2. On Fridays, Tim Tebow will join Stephen A. for debates about college football.  If you told me to take a week and come up with a pair of “guest debaters” who are more different from one another as are Tebow and Irvin, I am not sure I could do so.  Irvin is all bombast; he might start ventilating in the course of telling you what month of the year we are in.  Tebow is generally low-key except when he is talking about or experiencing something exciting.

I doubt that I will be able to endure two solid hours of Smith and Irvin yelling at each other on Mondays.  I shall try it out one of these weeks; I set the OVER/UNDER at 35 minutes before I move on to something else.  At the other end of the spectrum, I am genuinely interested to see how Smith and Tebow work together.  I may or may not be able to hang in there for an entire two-hour show, but I am intrigued by the possibilities there.

Some of the rotating guest debaters that ESPN would have you believe are all “A-List sports personalities” include:

  • Paul Finebaum – He has forgotten more about college football than Stephan A. Smith ever knew.
  • Keyshawn Johnson – Another bloviator from the Michael Irvin school of broadcasting.
  • Mina Kimes – I have enjoyed seeing her on much lower-key programs on ESPN.
  • Kimberley A. Martin – Meh…
  • Monica McNutt – Meh…
  • Jessica Mendoza – Between her and Stephen A. Smith, there is not even the possibility of “dead air”.
  • Chiney Ogwumike – I like her on ESPN Radio
  • Dan Orlovsky – Meh…
  • Kendrick Perkins – Sometimes I think he is provocative for the sake of being provocative.
  • Marcus Spears – I have liked him on various NFL studio shows.
  • Brian Windhorst – I can take him or leave him.
  • Damien Woody – I like him.

Finally, I’ll close with an observation by satirist Karl Kraus:

“Journalists write because they have nothing to say and have something to say because they write.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday 9/3/21

Forget the false start to the college football season from last weekend; the real season begins this week.  There will be an unimportant game on Wednesday followed by a half dozen games on Thursday and then a handful of games on Friday.  All that will lead up to a grand crescendo of games next Saturday.  When you have lots of college football on Saturdays in the Fall, all is right with the universe.

With the arrival of football season, I need to decide what to do in terms of a writing schedule.  For the last couple of years, I have done “Football Friday” rants blending college and professional football commentary and “analysis”.  Having thought about it, I think I prefer to maintain that format rather than returning to separate rants on college football and NFL football on different days from several years ago.  So, that will be my focus until and unless I get a better conceptual idea.

Having said all that, I do need to make some overview comments about college football in general leading up to the real beginning of the season.  So, let me begin by suggesting a few college head coaches who are – or ought to be – on a hot seat in 2021.

  1. Randy Edsall – – UConn.  Yes, he is still the head coach of the Huskies.  How that continues to obtain is mysterious — – but it does.  He is 6-30 since his return to UConn.  The team was miserable last year and they opened the season last week against Fresno State and were blown out 45 – 0.
  2. Herm Edwards – – Arizona State.  The NCAA super-sleuths are all over the Sun Devils’ records chasing down allegations of improper recruiting during the COVID-19 shutdown last year.
  3. Scott Frost – – Nebraska.  It’s been a few years since he arrived at his alma mater as a savior after doing a good job at UCF.  However, his Huskers have been mediocre at best while he has been in charge; the cumulative record is 12-21 and the Big-10 record is 9-18.  I think the bloom is off the rose in Lincoln.  If Frost does not get the team to a bowl game that boosters can go to and enjoy themselves, I think he is done.  The fact that the NCAA is investigating “irregularities” and possible violations will not help Coach Frost’s cause.  Losing the opening game 30 – 22 to Illinois last week when Nebraska was a 7-point favorite will not help Coach Frost’s cause either.
  4. Justin Fuente – – Va Tech.  The Hokies were 5-6 last year; that is not acceptable; it is first time the team has been under .500 since 1992.  Significant improvement is needed here if he is to keep his job.
  5. Ed Orgeron – – LSU.  He is on this list because he won a national championship two years ago and then his team wet the bed with a 5-5 record last year.  Another year with 5 losses and he will be history in Baton Rouge.

I probably would have put Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) on this list had not the Wolverines given him a 4-year contract extension during the offseason.  Last year, his team was 2-4 and given how long he has been at the helm in Ann Arbor, it is fair to ask if he is ever going to beat Ohio State.  But he has a new contract that runs through the end of 2025, so his seat is not particularly warm let alone hot.

There is one coach at a school where coaching changes happen more frequently than at other schools who is plenty safe for now.  That would be Greg Schiano (Rutgers).  This is Schiano’s second tour of duty at Rutgers and in his first season last year, his team was 3 – 6.  That may not sound all that good but consider:

  • For the two years prior to Schiano’s return, the Rutgers’ team record was 3 – 21.
  • Moreover, 3 of the 6 losses were by one-score; Rutgers was competitive.
  • The only way Schiano leaves Rutgers is if he is hired away by a bigger program.

And the mention of Greg Schiano reminds me to comment on another coaching situation – – the one at Tennessee.  There is a new guy in charge again this year; the Vols hired Josh Heupel away from UCF where his teams had gone 28 – 8 over the last 3 seasons with bowl game appearances every season.  Heupel takes over the Vols from Jeremy Pruitt who was fired ostensibly because of NCAA violations.  The fact that Pruitt’s teams went 16-19 over his three season in Knoxville did not help his cause since Tennessee fans seem to think they should be competing for national championships in most seasons.  Self-delusion is very powerful…

Recall how Puritt got the job in 2017.  Butch Jones was fired for not winning enough and the AD offered the job to Greg Schiano.  This caused agita in Knoxville because Greg Schiano had been on the Penn State staff with convicted pedophile, Jerry Sandusky and some folks felt that “guilt by association” was appropriate notwithstanding the fact that Schiano had never been implicated in any sort of wrongdoing.  I said that self-delusion is a powerful force, and it seems to run rampant among Vols’ fans and boosters.  Here is how things went down to get to the point where Jeremy Pruitt became the choice to lead Tennessee once Schiano had been dismissed out of hand:

  • In 2008, Tennessee fired Philip Fulmer for going 5-7.  Forget that Fulmer had won a national championship and had been the coach in Knoxville for 16 seasons.
  • That led to hiring Lane Kiffin who stayed there for exactly 1 season before taking another job in college football.  I am convinced that Kiffin realized the unattainable goals the fans had there, and he left town as soon as he had another offer.
  • That led to the hiring of Derek Dooley for the 2010-2012 seasons – – all of which yielded sub-.500 records.
  • Enter Butch Jones for the next 5 seasons where the Vols go 34 – 29.  As I said, he had a winning record, but it was not “winning enough”.
  • When the AD at Tennessee offered the job to Schiano and the agita caused it to be rescinded, that also led to a palace revolt where Philip Fulmer ousted the AD and took the job himself.  So, Fulmer was involved at the start and the end of this reign of mediocrity at Tennessee.  Now Fulmer and Pruitt are gone and the mantle falls on Coach Heupel.  Mazel-tov, Coach…

l do not want to pretend that I have looked for and analyzed all the out-of-conference scheduling choices by every school in Division 1 because I did not.  However, I have looked at a few and I have categorized some of them as Bold and others as Shameful.  Let me start with the Bold ones:

  • Georgia:   Will play Clemson, UAB, Charleston Southern, Ga Tech
  • Ga Tech:  Will play N. Illinois, Kennesaw State, Notre Dame, Georgia
  • Kent State:  Will play Texas A&M, Iowa, Maryland, VMI

Now for some Shameful out of conference scheduling choices:

  • Tennessee:  Wii play Bowling Green, Pitt, Tennessee Tech,  South Alabama
  • Rutgers:  Will play Temple, Syracuse, Delaware
  • Syracuse:  Will play Ohio, Rutgers, Albany, Liberty
  • Oklahoma:  Will play Tulane, W. Carolina, Nebraska
  • Oregon State:  Will play Purdue, Hawaii, Idaho
  • Houston:  Will play Texas Tech, Rice, Grambling State, UConn

Next, I would like to consider three teams that can – and should – have much better season in 2021 than they did in 2020:

  1. Boston College:  The Eagles changed coaches last year and won 6 games in Coach Jeff Hafley’s first season.  Unless that was a complete mirage, I would expect the team to be better with another year of immersion in that system.
  2. LSU: Not only did the Tigers finish at .500 last year, they were embarrassed on the field.  The pass defense was the worst in Division 1 and it allowed an SEC record of 623 yards passing in a single game to Mississippi State’s Air Raid offense.  That is atypical performance from a team in Baton Rouge.  The immediate fallout is that defensive coordinator Bo Pellini was fired along with all his defensive staff.  I have to think that the new staff and the current players will have to be better than that in 2021.
  3. Penn State:  After starting 0-5 last year, Penn State won its final 4 games.  That gave them a losing record for the year and that is the first time Penn State alums and fans had to endure such an ignominy since the 2004 season.  The Nittany Lions had a lot of players who opted out of the COVID-19 dominated season last year; that should not be the case again this year.  If Penn State can resume its long-standing identity as a team that runs the ball effectively, they should do better this year than they did last year.

The oddsmakers at sportsbooks have made their assessments about which teams will be “really good” and which ones are going to be “really awful” in 2021.  Here are the preseason win total proposition bets for top teams and then for bottom teams.

Top teams:

  • Alabama – – 11.5 wins
  • Clemson – – 11.5 wins
  • Georgia – – 10.5 wins
  • Ohio State – – 11 wins
  • Oklahoma – – 11 wins

Bottom teams:

  • Arizona – – 2.5 wins
  • Bowling Green – – 1.5 wins
  • Kansas – – 1 win
  • La-Monroe – – 1.5 wins
  • New Mexico State – – 2 wins
  • Temple – – 2.5 wins
  • UConn – – 2.5 wins
  • UMass – – 1.5 wins
  • UNLV – – 1.5 wins

The oddsmakers have spoken regarding the nine teams listed above who should be awful in 2021.  Anyone who has followed these rants for a while knows that I like to focus on the worst teams in a season and I think there are other teams that – perhaps – should have been on this list of under-performers:

  • Akron:  These guys allowed more than 41 points per game last year wining only 1 game.  Moreover, they have only won one game in the last two seasons.
  • Duke:  If you look at their final four game last season, the Blue Devils gave up an average of 54 points per game.  In that stretch, a 48-0 loss to Miami was the best defensive performance.
  • Old Dominion:  This team was 1-11 in 2019 and did not play at all in 2020.  It is hard to imagine that a  “year off” is a benefit for a team that was 1-11…
  • UTEP:  The Miners won 3 games last  year and two losses came by a total of 8 points.  That’s the good news.  The Minors also lost by double-digits to Rice, UNC-Charlotte and Texas-San Antonio.  This is a team with a losing tradition.  They play in C-USA – – not nearly a top-shelf conference – – and in conference games in the last 4 seasons, UTEP is outrageously 1 – 27.

I will be tracking as the season progresses what I call The Brothel Defense – – that is the defensive unit in the country that allows anyone to score as often as it likes.  Last year, The Brothel Defense was Kansas; the Jayhawks gave up 46 points per game.  No team wants to top that in 2021…

And as usual, I am looking forward to following the football fortunes of Linfield College (McMinnville, OR).  The last time the Linfield Wildcats had a losing season in football was in 1955. That is a year before Dwight Eisenhower ran for a second term as President and two years before Sputnik became a news story.  The wildcats did not play in the COVID-19 environment of 2020; so, I consider that winning season streak to be intact at 64 consecutive seasons.

Linfield does not play its first game until September 11 at home against Simon Fraser University.  Linfield is a Division III school and its regular season schedule is only 9 games long but there is the possibility of Division III national tournament participation as a post-season event.  Go Wildcats!

 

Games of Interest:

 

Before I get to games for this weekend, let me do a very quick look back at four games from the so-called “Week-Zero” for college football last weekend.

  1. I already noted that Illinois beat Nebraska 30 – 22 despite Nebraska being a touchdown favorite.  Remember, that is Illinois the Huskers lost to; it has been a long time before anyone confused Illinois with a football powerhouse.  Next up for Nebraska is a visit by Fordham – a Division 1AA team.  The Huskers are 42.5-point favorites; I suggest that they better cover if they like their coach…
  2. UCLA beat Hawaii by a score of 44 – 10.  Was that a statement game indicating that Chip Kelly – now in his 4th year at UCLA – finally has a team that might play the way his teams at Oregon used to play?  We shall see quickly because this week LSU comes calling – – and LSU is a significant step up in competition as compared to Hawaii.
  3. UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3.  The Aggies next game is against San Diego State and the Aggies are 31-point underdogs.  Looks like another long season in Las Cruces.
  4. Fresno State beat UConn 45- 0.  The last time the Huskies had a winning season was in 2010.  Things are not looking promising after a first game like that one.  This week, UConn plays Division 1-AA, Holy Cross and they are only 2-point favorites in that game!  Remember, UConn took last year off to avoid COVID-19 problems with the idea of using the year as a way to reset the program.

Here are three teams that could steal the spotlight early-on in the 2021 season with a strong performance this week.

  1. Miami:  They get to open against Alabama – the consensus #1 team in the country.  As of now they are almost 3 TD underdogs, but strange things happen in college football.  A win for the Hurricanes would be a seismic event; a nail-biting loss would insert Miami into discussions about the CFP and/or New Years’ Day bowl games.
  2. La-Lafayette:  Ten years ago, no one associated with this program would have thought a season-opener against Texas was anything more than a “squash match”.  The Cajuns are only a one-score underdog.
  3. Florida State:  They open at home against Notre Dame ranked in the Top Ten.  An upset here could be transformational.

(Fri) UNC – 5.5 at Va Tech (64):  A win for the Hokies here could give Coach Justin Fuentes a lot of breathing room…

(Fri) Duke – 7 at UNC-Charlotte (60):  The Blue Devils need to win here AND need to keep the 49ers offense under some semblance of control…

(Sat) Penn State at Wisconsin – 4.5 (50):  An early test for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions …

(Sat) Indiana at Iowa – 3 (46):  Indiana is ranked in the Top 25 pre-season polls this year; it’s been a while since that happened…

(Sat) Fresno State at Oregon – 19.5 (62):  Remember, Fresno State won last week 45-0 over UConn.  Given the respect shown here for Fresno State, you can appreciate how bad UConn might be…

(Sat) Alabama – 18.5 vs. Miami (FL) (62) [Game is in Atlanta]:  Just how good is the Crimson Tide this year…???

(Sat) La-Lafayette at Texas – 8 (58):  The Ragin’ Cajuns are ranked 23rd in the pre-season polls this year; Texas is ranked 21st

(Sat) Georgia at Clemson – 3 (51.5):  This has to be the Game of the Week; if you only make time to see one game start-to-finish, this should be the one.  Both teams think they should be national champion caliber teams.  This will be the first showing by DJ Uiagalelei as the successor to Trevor Lawrence at Clemson.  Good luck with that …

(Sun) Notre Dame – 7.5 at Florida State (56):  Twenty-five years ago, this might have been the Game of the Year; in 2021, the Seminoles need a good showing just to get folks believing that they have turned the program around…

(Mon) Louisville at Ole Miss – 9.5 (75.5) [Game is in Atlanta]:  If history is any guide, this one should light up the scoreboard…

Once the season is in motion and I can begin to see trends, I will try to offer up a Six-Pack of wagering selections for college and NFL games.  Last year’s performance for the Six-Pack was awful; I will try to do better.

At the end of the season, I will look to identify the 8 worst college football teams and put them into an imaginary “tournament” where the winning team gets to go home and the losers play on to determine the worst team in the country.  I call that the SHOE Tournament because it identifies the SHOE team of the year where that is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.

Looking forward to a fun season.  Glad to have folks aboard…

Finally, let me remind you of H. L Mencken’s views on college football as an institution:

“College football would be more interesting if the faculty played instead of the students – there would be a great increase in broken arms, legs and necks.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Big-10, PAC-12, ACC Alliance…

A few weeks ago, when the ACC, Big-10 and PAC-12 proclaimed their Alliance, I said I would wait until I had more information before commenting.  The announcement at the time referenced a “verbal agreement” so there was nothing to read/judge/interpret.  I assumed such a document would emerge soon after so that there could be meaningful analysis and questioning.  That has yet to happen.

So, let me spend some time commenting on the Alliance as I understand it now.  Clearly, this Alliance – whatever form it takes down the road – is a response to the SEC absorbing Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big-12.  Texas is a big money program; Oklahoma is a powerhouse program; what remains of the Big-12 is a shambles.  [Aside:  It is horrendously politically incorrect to make anything resembling a positive reference to former President Trump’s comment about “shithole countries,” but the football remains of the Big-12 comes close to qualifying as such.]  I think it speaks loudly and clearly that the Big-12 will fade to irrelevancy as soon as Texas and Oklahoma depart when you note that the three conferences forming the Alliance did not invite the remaining Big-12 teams to join their Alliance.

So, what might the remnants of the Big-12 do on their own.  Here is what is left of the Big-12 – in alphabetical order lest anyone think I am ranking the relevance of any of these programs:

  1. Baylor
  2. Iowa State
  3. Kansas
  4. Kansas State
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. TCU
  7. Texas Tech
  8. West Virginia

Yes, I know.  Two schools are leaving the conference and only 8 remain; yet they called themselves the Big-12.  Clearly, the conference organizers need a bit more focus on STEM.  Whatever…

If that cadre of teams is to “stick together” with any hope of football relevancy – and that is where the big money is in 2021 – they need to poach teams from other conferences.  That will not be easy because if you look at the lineup here, it is not an overly enticing group to join.  So, here are 4 possible schools the remnants of the Big-12 might court:

  1. Boise State:  It seems to me that Boise State has outgrown the Mountain West Conference.  Thanks to its iconic “Smurf Turf” field, Boise State has become recognizable far beyond the borders of Idaho.
  2. BYU:  They have been playing an independent schedule and may just have tired of trying to find a dozen meaningful games for every year on the calendar.
  3. Cincinnati:  This has been a program on the rise in recent years, but it has been overlooked because lots of folks think they “don’t play anybody”.  The 8 teams left in the Big-12 may not be Murderer’s Row, but it is a more prestigious group than the median level of the American Athletic Conference where Cincy resides now.
  4. UCF:  This may be a stretch, but UCF is a big school with a big following.  [Student body is more than 60,000 students.]  They have had about 5 years of very successful football in the American Athletic Conference and – like Cincinnati – may be looking to play a slightly more prestigious slate of opponents.

If the “Big-Remaining-8” could pull off these annexations, it can probably survive as a stand-alone group.  If the “Big-Remaining-8” fail to do that or something nearly equivalent to that, I think they are doomed.

Back to the Alliance announcement…  It seems to me that if the three conferences are serious about doing whatever it is they perceive they need to do to “counter the SEC,” they need to figure out how they are going to do mutual out-of-conference scheduling to the point where SEC teams will not be able to find attractive games outside their conference.  There were no implications along those lines from the announcement of the Alliance nor have there been rumblings about such a thing in the intervening days.  Normally, one thinks about “alliances” as groups that work together on mutual interests, and it seems to me that the only expressed mutual interest here is this one:

  • We are not the SEC and we do not like the SEC because they are going to make a lot more money than we are.

Is that enough to hold together a group of about 40 universities?  According to the Big-10 Commissioner, Kevin Warren:

“Hopefully this will bring some much-needed stability in college athletics. I also think what it will do is allow people to understand where everyone else stands.  Some of the events over the last couple of months have shaken the foundations of college athletics.”

If that sort of rhetoric brings clarity to you, I tip my hat to you.  Here are my reactions to that sort of statement:

  • Two schools choosing to change conferences – – effective about 5 years from now – – “shakes the foundations of college athletics?”  Really?
  • Meanwhile, three conferences of about 40 schools banding together does not shake any foundations?  Can you explain any of that?
  • I have no idea where the 40 schools in the alliance stand on anything, yet you say this allows “people to understand where everyone stands.”  WTF?

One thread of analysis that runs through all this cloudiness is that somehow the Alliance will halt – or at least slow down considerably – the momentum to expand the CFP from 4 teams at present to 12 teams as has been proposed for the future.  Since I think twelve are too many teams, I hope the Alliance can achieve that end, but their logic escapes me.  The logical thread goes like this:

  • If there are 12 CFP teams, the SEC might wind up with 6 of the 12 slots and other conferences would feel “left out” and/or “disrespected”.

So, explain to me how all the teams in the ACC feel when there are 4 slots currently in the CFP and the only fully-committed ACC team within hailing distance of an invitation is Clemson.  Same with the Big-10 schools other than Ohio State.  And the PAC-12 is usually left out of the picture entirely’ so, how do they benefit from keeping the number of teams at four?

At this point, I am wont to say that we need to stay tuned because there must be more information forthcoming – – but it has been a while since the conference commissioners held their rhetorical gabfest and nothing has happened yet.  About 50 years ago, Peggy Lee had a #1 hit record entitled, Is That All There Is?  Maybe someone needs to play that song for these commissioners the next time they stand in the same zip code with a microphone…

Finally, let me close with a slightly modified version of a common adage that seems appropriate here:

  • If something is not worth doing, it is not worth doing it well.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Tale Of Three QBs…

As has been the custom this season, when the first of a month rolls around, I look at the cumulative numbers associated with MLB’s Injured List.  The season began on April 1st and has been ongoing for 5 months; here are some data:

  • 756 players have spent time on the Injured List
  • 445 of those players are pitchers
  • Those players spent a total of 38,691 days on the Injured List
  • Those players collected a total of $688,245,968 while on the Injured List.
  • Four players – – Mike Trout, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander – – have earned more than $20M each while on the Injured List.

Earlier this week, I said that the NFL had proposed to the NFLPA that COVID-19 vaccinations be made mandatory.  I also said I could not see the union agreeing to that proposal and with the start of the season fast approaching, there was a need for clarity on such a question of eligibility for players.  The league and the union have come to an agreement on the testing elements of a COVID-19 protocol for the 2021 season:

  • Vaccinated players will be tested weekly – that is an accelerated testing schedule as compared to the biweekly tests administered to vaccinated players during training camp.
  • Vaccinated players are exempt from contact-tracing quarantines
  • Unvaccinated players will be tested daily.
  • Unvaccinated players are subject to five-day contact-tracing quarantine if they are identified as “high-risk close contacts” of someone who tested positive.

These protocols apply to coaches and team staff members as well as players.

Moving on… I am beginning to believe that someone somewhere has a Voodoo doll in the likeness of Carson Wentz.  Let me give you a thumbnail sketch of his NFL career:

  • He was having a great  year – attracting comments that he might be the MVP – until he tore up his knee in December.  Nick Foles replaced him and led the team to a Super Bowl victory.
  • His game fell apart in 2020; he was benched; reports say he and his coach were not even speaking; the coach was fired, and Wentz was traded.
  • On the first day of training camp with his new team, Wentz injured his foot.  The team did not know if he would be out 5 weeks or 12 weeks; maybe surgery was needed and maybe not…
  • Wentz recovered and resumed practice and looked to be the starting QB for the Colts next week in Week 1.
  • Early this week Carson Wentz was put on the 5-day quarantine list because of high-risk close contacts with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.

Speaking about surprising events related to an NFL QB, the Patriots released Cam Newton.  As a veteran, that release immediately makes him a free agent; he need not clear waivers before negotiating for a new position.  However, as someone who gives every indication that he is not vaccinated, he would have to wait for a 5-day period before he joined his new club once he signs on.  I look at this situation in three ways:

  1. Mac Jones may have legitimately beaten out Newton for the starting job in the eyes of Coach Belichick.  He is the coach with about 3 lbs. of Super Bowl rings, not I.  But did Jarrett Stidham beat out Newton for the back-up job too?
  2. Newton had to miss 5 days of training camp over a “misunderstood rule” regarding COVID-19 protocols.  Is that the entire story there?  Did those 5 days provide Jones and Stidham the time needed to earn their ascendence past Newton?  [Aside:  This does not smell like a “cap cut”.  Newton got a $2M bonus to sign back in the offseason and only has $1.5M guaranteed for 2021.  That is not a significant cap burden.]
  3. The Cowboys have Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush on their roster as QBs this morning.  Prescott has not played at all this year after a severe injury last year.  Cooper Rush is – well – Cooper Rush.  If the Cowboys do not make a serious run at Cam Newton, I will be shocked.

The Houston Texans still have Deshaun Watson on their roster for 2021.  Watson has “demanded” a trade; he said he would not play for the Texans again; he is also the subject of a criminal investigation for sexual assault and the defendant in 22 civil actions alleging sexual assault.  He has not been part of any OTAs or minicamps, but he has reported to training camp and has done some on-field drills.  I guess he is still the Texans’ starting QB based on demonstrated on-field ability over Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and Ryan Finley.  At the same time, I cannot imagine that the league will allow him to play given the extent of his legal issues at the moment particularly considering the social focus on sexual assault today.

It seems to me that the Texans and the NFL Front Office are playing “Alphonse and Gaston” with Watson’s situation each seemingly waiting on the other to announce some sort of suspension that would clarify when, if and how Watson might be eligible to play again in the NFL – for the Texans or anyone else.  The NFL season starts a week from tomorrow; the Texans open on September 12 against the Jags.  Here is what I was able to find regarding the NFL Personal Conduct Policy that appears to be applicable here.  A player may be put on paid leave if charged with a felony or:

“… a crime of violence … of having engaged in sexual assault by force or against a person who was incapable of giving consent.  The formal charges may be in the form of an indictment by a grand jury, the filing of charges by a prosecutor or an arraignment in a criminal court.”

Reports say that there is a grand jury in Texas reviewing evidence regarding 10 folks who have filed criminal complaints against Watson.  The start of the NFL season has great importance to the NFL and to the Houston Texans – – but I doubt that the grand jury members or the prosecutors presenting to that grand jury give any great significance to that impending date.

Finally, I shall close today with an observation by the novelist, Joseph Heller:

“Success and failure are both difficult to endure.  Along with success come drugs, divorce, fornication, bullying, travel, medication, depression, neurosis and suicide.  With failure comes failure.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Sunday Nights For The Rest Of The Year

Those readers who know me in real life also know that I love my long-suffering wife without limit.  Notwithstanding that sentiment and standing, she has – over the next 6 weeks or so – managed to create a family schedule that incorporates physical therapy sessions for me, travel to and from our vacation home in central PA, social engagements, visitors and daytrips to a variety of destinations such that it will be a challenge for me to maintain my normal writing schedule for this time of the year.  Even considering my need for physical therapy – rotator cuff problems in my right shoulder – I maintain that I will be able to stay the course in terms of writing.  If there is a glitch and if I miss a day or two here and there, you have been forewarned.

On Sunday night, the Falcons played the Browns in a final meaningless Exhibition Game.  My choices for spending that evening boiled down to two things:

  1. Watch the Falcons/Browns on TV.
  2. Rearrange my sock drawer.

I chose to watch – not particularly closely – the game on TV.  In doing so, I came to a realization about how my TV sports experience was about to get a lot better as the calendar flips to September.

  • I know that there are Internet trolls who think Al Michaels is bordering on senile and who think that Cris Collinsworth hates their team specifically.  The Internet is alive with hate for that announcing duo.
  • FORGET ALL THAT!  Michaels and Collinsworth are excellent announcers, and they add value to the telecast for much of the time that they are speaking.
  • That is NOT the case with the Sunday Night Baseball presentation on ESPN with Matt Vasgersian, Alex Rodriguez and Buster Olney.  Vasgersian – and to a much greater extent A-Rod – simply will not shut up.  There is a lot of dead time in a baseball game and announcers need to do a bit of fill-in there but there are other times when the action on the field is self-explanatory to any viewer who is awake and sentient – – and it is those times when Sunday Night Baseball announcers will not STFU!
  • When the producers “go to Buster Olney” the result is either a pabulum interview done live or a feelgood piece that he has prepared prior to the game.  ESPN should recognize by now that Buster Olney has plenty of insight into baseball and great sources inside the game – – but they do not give him time and space to exhibit those areas of expertise with the airtime assignments given to him.
  • Football announcing is different.  Indeed, there are interludes in the game where nothing is happening, and the “dead air” needs to be filled.  But there is plenty of time during action where the best thing an announcing team can do is to be quiet or to be emotionally present in the moment depending on if the play was a positive one or a negative one.  Michaels and Collinsworth do that really well; they are a plus to the telecast.  My Sunday night sports viewing events are going to be better from September through December if only for the significant increase in the competence and enjoyability of the broadcasters on the air for my games of choice.

Moving on …  There appears to be a new baseball argot these days.  I read somewhere that a pitcher for the Atlanta Braves had “thrown a 90-pitch Maddux.”  Thanks to Google, it did not take me long to learn that “a Maddux” – named after first-ballot Hall of Fame pitcher Greg Maddux – is a complete game shutout with 100 or fewer pitches.

Greg Maddux’s career in MLB spanned 23 seasons.  During those years, he threw 35 shutouts in 744 game appearances. He also had 109 complete games over the course of his career.  I have not found an easy way to find out how many of his 35 shutouts were “Madduxes”, but my guess is that the total is more than a mere handful, or the label would not exist today.  I did run across a game he pitched in 1997 against the Chicago Cubs:

  • It was a complete game.
  • He threw only 77 pitches.
  • He won the game – – but it was not a shutout.  The score was 4-1.

The way baseball is played and managed in 2021, it seems unlikely that we will see any players compiling 109 complete games over a career; We may get to see “a Maddux” here and there over the course of a season, but most starting pitchers will have a pitch count in the 90s by the seventh inning even if they are pitching efficiently.  The game has changed significantly…

I have refrained from comment on the new name image and likeness (NIL) rules regarding college athletes because I have this queasy feeling that at least some of those deals are akin to the under-the-table payoffs that happened with college athletes in previous times.  Instead of a ”no-show summer job” at a glorious hourly wage, athletes now can take money from the same source if they agree to put their image on a coffee mug along with the company logo.  Forget my cynicism for a moment and listen to something I have to say to all the athletes who are now cashing in on the opening wave of this revenue source:

  • This income is almost assuredly not going to last for a long time.  For those that make it to the NFL or NBA or WNBA, it will continue; for the rest of the “student-athletes” it is important that you be students now.
  • Take courses in business administration – particularly marketing/advertising – and treat those courses as important lessons for your life.  Learn something; do the work; study; ask questions.  Working smartly with the money you are now earning will be important for your retirement years down the road.
  • This is NOT the time to have your parents take care of things for you.  Get yourself an agent and/or a lawyer with whom you are comfortable and BE SURE to file all necessary tax documents and returns with the IRS.  You probably have never dealt with those folks before – – but you must do so now.

Finally, here is a thought about money from the poet and satirist, Dorothy Parker:

“Money cannot buy health, but I’d settle for a diamond-studded wheelchair.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

From Rational Thought to Silliness Today…

Late last week, the NFL proposed that COVID-19 vaccinations be made mandatory.  Reports say that they presented this new policy initiative to the NFLPA for its consideration/acquiescence/whatever.  According to other reports I have read, the NFL has more than 90% of its players vaccinated – one report had the percentage at 93% – but holdouts remain.  The union position here is a rational one:

  • The union acknowledges the effectiveness and the safety of the vaccines.
  • The union points to the strict COVID-19 protocols from last year and to the effectiveness of those protocols when strictly enforced.

The protocols currently in force call for vaccinated folks – players, coaches, staff members – to be tested biweekly and for unvaccinated folks to be tested daily.  It is difficult to “take sides” on this issue because both sides have a rational basis for their positions.  My guess is that the current proposal for mandatory vaccinations – as with previous requests of a similar nature – will not get NFLPA approval.

A few months ago, I mentioned that Louisville assistant coach, Dino Gaudio, had been indicted on extortion charges.  Last week, Gaudio pleaded guilty to those charges in Federal court and – per a plea agreement – he will spend a year on probation and pay a $10K fine.  [Aside:  According to one report, the maximum penalty here could be a fine of $250K plus 2 years in prison plus 3 years on probation.]  According to the court documents, here is what happened:

  • Gaudio and another assistant coach at Louisville were fired at the end of last season by head coach Chris Mack.  The team missed the NCAA tournament last year and posted a 13-7 record.
  • Proximal to the time of his dismissal, Gaudio told “Louisville officials” that he was going to report violation of NCAA rules by the team unless Louisville paid him for the rest of his contract – – $425K.
  • The rules he alleged were broken involved the production of “recruiting videos for prospective student-athletes” and the use of graduate assistants in practices.  [Aside: I have no specifics here but that sounds awfully minor to me.  What do I know?]
  • Gaudio also sent a text with one of the allegedly improper videos to various folks associated with the university.  That text message traveled outside the State of Kentucky on its way from Gaudio to the university officials and that is how the Feds became involved.

It sounds to me as if Gaudio simply lost his grip on life for a moment when he was fired by Mack because the two men have a long and positive relationship.  The two coaches were on the same NC State staff as assistants from 2001 through 2004; Gaudio had been a basketball broadcaster for ESPN when Mack hired him as Mack’s assistant at Louisville.  It is not as if these two guys did not know each other or that they had a longstanding beef with each other. And there is one more thing about this story that makes me shake my head:

  • Louisville is going to suspend Chris Mack for 6 games this season for “failing to follow procedures in handling this matter”.

The university did not elaborate on what procedures were not followed but given the outcome here – a guilty plea and the university not having to pay the extortion amount – I have to wonder just how important those “procedures” are.

Switching gears … Bob Molinaro had this to say in one of his recent columns in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“According to a survey by some entity nobody’s heard of, Notre Dame’s Fighting Irish leprechaun is the fourth-most offensive college mascot, trailing only schools with Native American mascots.

“The difference, of course, between Native American mascots and Notre Dame’s is that leprechauns aren’t real. And never have been. Or are some people still a little vague about that? Nobody of Irish descent — or any other descent — is bothered by Notre Dame’s nickname and mascot. Don’t people ever tire of attempts at manufacturing nonsense?”

My response to those statements – and I agree with both entirely – has two thrusts:

  1. Indeed, people will continue to “get bent out of shape” over fringe issues because the environment in 2021 is to shower such folks with attention.  If someone were to organize a march to protest the leprechaun, someone would make that into a serious report and give the organizer an Andy Warhol prescribed fifteen minutes of fame.
  2. Moreover, we have set the bar far too low.  It has gotten to the point where a single person who takes offense at something – anything – means that there needs to be attention paid to that issue and for the issue to be debated and resolved in some way.  That is nonsense because it sets up a cottage industry for “taking offense”.  Today I can be offended by the NY Jets because we are coming up on the 20th anniversary of 9/11.  Tomorrow I can be offended by the NY Giants because the name is a form of “body-shaming”.  The day after that, I can be offended by the New England Patriots because the name is an affront to anarchists everywhere.  And none – as in not even one – of my nonsensical outrages should garner any attention.

Finally, I will close today with a brief statement from W. C. Fields:

“I am free of all prejudices.  I hate everyone equally.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

From Rachael Nichols to Voltaire Today…

The curtain appears to have come down on the kerfuffle at ESPN between Maria Taylor and Rachel Nichols.  If you do not recall the details, do not bother Googling to learn them; it is not worth the time or the energy it would take to execute the mouse clicks.  In the end, ESPN is probably the winner because yesterday they announced that Rachel Nichols will no longer be on the ESPN airwaves as the host of The Jump and Nichols announced that she is not going to make a scene over this – – at least for now.  Also, as part of the end stage, Maria Taylor shuffled off to NBC with a new contract there.  So, why do I think ESPN is the winner here?

  • Neither Nichols nor Taylor is anywhere near “irreplaceable.”
  • In fact, I find Maria Taylor vapid and Rachel Nichols “meh.”
  • ESPN can do better…

Switching gears …  In the world of bureaucracy, there is something known as Miles’ Law:

  • “Where you stand on any issue depends on where you sit.”

What that means is that one can have different “perspectives” on a given issue depending on the job one has at the moment the issue needs to be addressed.  More cynically, Miles’ Law is a justification for hypocritical behavior as one’s career path advances or declines.  Here we are in 2021 and we can see the NFL wrapping itself in the banner of Miles’ Law.

For decades, the NFL asserted unequivocally that betting on NFL games was evil and that it threatened the integrity of the sport itself.

  • The NFL supported the passage of PASPA to outlaw as much sports betting as was possible at the Federal level.
  • The NFL forbade its “broadcast partners” to include wagering information as part of the game presentation or in studio shows.
  • The NFL would not allow the “broadcast partners” to air commercials for legal betting establishments.
  • The NFL forced Tony Romo and other NFL players to renege on appearance promises for a fantasy football convention because it was in Las Vegas at a casino.
  • The NFL Commissioner told a court that the spread of legalized gambling “threatened to damage irreparably the integrity of and public confidence in NFL football.”
  • The NFL filed amicus curiae with the Supreme Court when PASPA was challenged there seeking to convince the Court to uphold PASPA.

It has been a little over 3 years since the Supreme Court declared PASPA to be unconstitutional.  One might think that the NFL would be four-square behind a strong and bipartisan effort in the Congress to fashion a new bill that would limit gambling on NFL games AND pass legal muster with the Supreme Court.  And this is where Miles’ Law enters the picture.

Rather than reminding everyone that the existence of professional football is now in mortal danger thanks to widespread gambling opportunities on those games as it had asserted for decades, the NFL has “pivoted;” it has “evolved its thinking;” it has “come to grips with the new reality.”  Actually, this is what it has done:

  • The NFL realized that more people will now be able to wager legally on NFL games and that provides the NFL with the opportunity to tap into another revenue stream.
  • The NFL is all about tapping revenue streams.  With money to be made, the NFL behavior devolved to its basic strategy, and it will now live by the motto, “Money talks and bullsh*t walks.”

As far as I can tell, the NFL has three official sports betting partners in Fan Duel, Draft Kings and Caesars Entertainment.  According to one report I read, the NFL could take in up to $300M this season for its role in those partnerships.  If the history of the NFL is any guide, that $300M in a year is just the starting point for this new revenue source.  It is likely that betting partnerships will never reach the same level of cash flow as the TV network deals, but look at this from an ownership perspective:

  • At $300M per year, if the NFL Front Office skims 5% to fund whatever it is that it does here, that leaves about $9M per team.  That is almost like found money on the sidewalk for owners.
  • So, imagine if someday the NFL revenue from its “betting partners” triples – or even quadruples.

There you have the motivation behind the league’s “evolved thinking.”  It has not evolved at all; it simply found a way to monetize for itself the sort of thing that it opposed in the past because they had not yet figured out how to monetize it.  And yet, the league still must walk carefully in this area lest it throw up betting activity into the face of those viewers – live and on TV – who are not so hot on that sort of thing.  There are people who do not like gambling and the NFL does not want to drive them away from its product,

So, here is where the NFL has drawn the line for 2021:

  • The NFL will allow no more than six sportsbook TV ads per game.

There you have the evolution of thought…

Finally, the French philosopher, Voltaire, summarized the NFL’s behavior regarding sports betting very well about 250 years ago:

“When it is a question of money, everybody is of the same religion.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Sports World Amuse-Bouche

Often when you go to a top-shelf restaurant, the waiter will bring you a small bite of something created in the kitchen for the day; it is free of charge; it – presumably – gives you an idea of the quality of the food  you will be ordering from the menu.  In French restaurants, this token is called an amuse-bouche – – something that amuses  your mouth.

The sports world is poised to present us with a sporting version of an amuse-bouche this weekend.  Before college football begins in earnest, there is a small sampling of games to be played this weekend.  There is a fundamental difference between the restaurant offering and this weekend’s offering, however:

  • A restaurant’s amuse-bouche is always tasty and enjoyable.
  • This week’s offering of college football games is as appealing as a muddy boot at best.

There will be seven games on Saturday; five of them involve at least one Division I team.  That is the best thing one can say about the card.  The “biggest game” is Nebraska at Illinois and here is my sense of the gravitas associated with that game:

  • The loser of this game will likely finish last in the Western Division of the Big-10.

Here in Curmudgeon Central there is a proclivity for looking at things through the other end of the telescope and the games on Saturday provide a perfect opportunity to do that.  Instead of focusing on Nebraska/Illinois as a meaningless contest, I prefer to focus on a game between UTEP and New Mexico State.  Both these teams have been horrible for quite a while:

  • Since 2005, UTEP has had exactly one winning season.
  • Since the 2016 season, the combined UTEP record is 5 – 39.
  • Since 2002, New Mexico State has had exactly one winning season.
  • Since the 2017 season, the combined New Mexico State record is 6-20.

The loser of this game will be highlighting a later game on its schedule against a Division 1-AA opponent as a “must win game”.

The offering of this amuse-bouche may not spike my interest level in college football for 2021, but it does remind me to take the time over the next few days to compile a pre-season look at college football because the real games – the ones that actually matter – will start a week from Saturday.  Among the folks who cover college football, the games this Saturday are referred to as “Week Zero” on the schedule.  Looking at the games, I think they should be labeled “Weak Zero.”

In MLB, it appears that things are getting serious regarding the Oakland a’s getting a new stadium.  A report earlier this week said that the team is carrying on parallel negotiations with officials in both Oakland and Las Vegas.  The A’s team president had this to say recently:

“I think it’s important that we recognize that we’re still having conversations [with officials in Oakland]. It’s also really important to understand the parties are still working towards a mutually agreeable solution. But we’re also going to work on a parallel path in Las Vegas, because it’s important that we have multiple options. We’re really running out of time here at the Coliseum.”

“Running out of time here at the Coliseum” has two meanings:

  1. The facility is decrepit; it has been decrepit for more than a few years now; it needs to be razed.
  2. The lease between the stadium officials and the A’s will expire at the end of the 2024 season.  The team would have to go brain dead to sign another long-term lease there, so – as Snuffy Smith would often say in the comic strips – “Time’s a-wasting!”

A recent report said that the State of California may have almost $300M available in its General Fund to contribute to the proposed stadium plan in Oakland.  If you want to read about that latest report, you can do so here.  Moreover, in that linked report there are other links to earlier reporting on all these negotiations if you are interested in the various twists and turns that they have taken over the past several years.

The tactic of playing one city off another is a standard gambit for sports franchises in the US.  However, the fact remains that baseball franchises do not move very often.  Normally, the Commissioner and other MLB execs do not take a public position regarding negotiations with cities and prefer to work in the background.  This time, there is a difference.  Back in May here are two statements that make me think things are different this time around:

“The Athletics need a new ballpark to remain competitive, so it is now in our best interest to also consider other markets.”  [Official statement from MLB]

And …

 “The time is here for a decision on our future, and it is unclear to us and MLB whether there is a path to success for the A’s in Oakland.”  [Statement by A’s team president concurrent with the MLB statement]

Finally, having spoken on matters related to Oakland in California, let me close with this observation by anthropologist, Ashley Montagu:

“[California] is the land of perpetual pubescence, where cultural lag is mistaken for renaissance.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………