Author: Jack

Friday the Thirteenth fell on a Wednesday this month.  Funny how that happens sometimes …

The NBA regular season is underway.  I feel the need to remind folks about this because almost no one cares about the NBA while the NFL is still in operation even though the NBA has just begun its in-season NBA Cup competition that was intended to grab everyone’s attention.  Now you know – – at least – – that the NBA Cup games have begun, meaning that you can ignore them instead of merely being oblivious to their existence.

There is one thing about the NBA that might be interesting to think about having nothing to do with the slog of games being presented.  The NBA should be poised for expansion.  The Commish said that a new CBA and a new media rights deal were more important than expansion and that any thought of expansion would have to wait until those bigger things were done.  Well, they are done – – and that means expansion should be under consideration.

The NBA has 30 teams; mathematically, a league with 32 teams is more balanced.  So, if the NBA were to expand, the logical thinking would be to find two new cities – – or at least one new city in Year 1 and then another new city in Year 2.  So, where might the NBA find new homes?

• Las Vegas:  The success of the NHL franchise and the off-field success of the NFL franchise there have made Las Vegas the top attraction for expansion by the NBA.  The city would have to come up with a new arena and in a site that is considered “posh” by the league and the prospective owners and real estate along the Strip and in the downtown area is not plentiful.
• Kansas City:  They have an arena, and they have other pro franchises that have survived there for a long time.
• Seattle:  They had a team there in the past that drew well until it needed a new arena to maintain competitiveness.  When that was not forthcoming, the team was sold and moved to Oklahoma City.  That hurdle has been crossed with the construction of a new arena that is home to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken.
• Vancouver:  They too used to have a team.  Maybe like Seattle it is worth a try for a new franchise?  The NBA seeks to have an “international image” so adding a Canadian team would assist the league on that dimension.

            As I look at that list, it is “unbalanced” to the western portion of the North American continent.  Certainly, Las Vegas, Seattle and Vancouver would have to be added to the NBA’s Western Conference and Kansas City is a more “western” venue than it is an “eastern” venue.  Such additions would mean that one current team in the Western Conference would have to be shuffled to the Eastern Conference to have 16 teams in both conferences.  Should that become necessary here are the candidates for “Conference Relocation”

• Minnesota:  The Wolves are close enough to Chicago, Detroit and Milwaukee to have natural rivalries develop.
• Memphis:  The Grizzlies are in a “no-man’s land” regarding close by rivalry cities in the West as well as in the East.

Some folks may be thinking that the NBA would not be best served by diluting the talent in the league any more than it is now; it seems as if there are at least a half-dozen – – and maybe ten – – teams that are talent-deficient to the point that they have no realistic chance to do anything more than make a cameo appearance in the playoffs six months from now.  And that thinking would be far closer to correct than to mistaken.

HOW-EVAH, here is why expansion is going to happen one of these days soon – –  geography and talent availability be damned:

• The last NBA franchise that was sold went for $4B.  That was the asking price for the Phoenix Suns and that was the purchase price.
• So, let me assume that the absolute smallest buy-in fee for two new owners would be $3.5B apiece.  More likely it will be $4B, but just to make a point let me pretend that the NBA owners would exhibit generosity to the new “fraternity members”.
• That gives the league $7B to divvy up.  Assume the NBA Front Office takes 5% off the top.  That leaves 6.65B to go to the existing owners and that comes out to be $221.7M each.
• Money talks and bullsh*t walks …

Having gone through the reasons why the league will want to expand, how would the NBPA respond to such a proposal by the league.  My guess is that the NBPA would take the suggestion under advisement because that is the professional thing that a union does to any management proposal and would do everything in its power to pretend to study the proposal before agreeing that it is a good idea because it would give the union more members.  Those sorts of ideas that increase membership are near and dear to the hearts of labor unions everywhere.

Finally, since today had been about money – – and lot of it – – let me close with these observations about money:

“When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is.”  [Oscar Wilde]

And …

“Money can’t buy love, but it improves your bargaining position.”  [Christopher Marlowe]

And …

“I’ve got all the money I’ll ever need, if I die by four o’clock.”  [Henny Youngman]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Trust me, I know.  This is supposed to be a Football Friday but because this weekend is a reunion of the core of the “Las Vegas Crowd”, most of this is being written on Thursday.  If you will allow for a breaking story or two that is not accounted for here, I will do my best to make this interesting.

• Last week’s Betting Bundle had 4 picks and the record was 3-1-0.  Not bad.
• Last week’s Money Line Parlays went 1-2 for a net loss of a supposed $100.  Not good.

Time to check in on the Linfield University Wildcats football season.  Last week Linfield was on the road against Pacific University for a Northwest Conference game; Linfield won that game 68-28 stretching their record for 2024 to 7-1.  Linfield remains undefeated in Northwest Conference competition, and they are at home this week for another conference game against Pacific Lutheran.  The Lutes are 6-2 over the course of the 2024 season and are 4-1 in Northwest Conference games.  This is an important game because the conference winner will get an invitation to the Division III national playoffs.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2024 was identified as the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Last week Nebraska lost at home to UCLA keeping the team one win away from bowl-eligibility in 2024.    Nebraska is now 5-4 on the season having lost their last three games in a row.  Here is the upcoming schedule where the Huskers need to find one more win to get themselves to a minor bowl game:

• At USC (next weekend)
• Vs. Wisconsin
• At Iowa

None of those games looks to be a “gimmee”; Nebraska will have to earn its trip to a bowl game if indeed they qualify for one …

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If I have counted correctly, there are only 5 undefeated teams left in Division 1-A ranks as of this morning:

• Army is 8-0
• BYU is 8-0
• Indiana is 9-0
• Miami is 9-0
• Oregon is 9-0

For the record, the last time Army went undefeated for the season was in 1958; the last time Oregon went undefeated for the season was in 1916 and the last time Indiana went undefeated for the season was in 1945.  Stay tuned; this could get interesting …

The Cornhuskers may need to manufacture a win as an underdog to get to a bowl game this year; such is not the case for the UConn Huskies who – – more years than not – – are SHOE Tournament candidates.  The Huskies have won their sixth game already and will find themselves invited to one of the myriad minor bowl games – – perhaps the WGARA Bowl where WGARA is the acronym for

• Who Gives A Rat’s Ass.

Vandy continues to try to lay claim to the most surprising college football team for 2024; last week they beat Auburn 17-7 on the road at Auburn and shut out Auburn in the second half of the game.  If you think that is a minor point, consider that this is the first time ever that Vandy has ever won on the road against Auburn and that Vandy has been playing intercollegiate football – – albeit not against Auburn every year – – since 1890.

The Auburn loss in this game gives the Tigers a record of 3-6 with an SEC record of 1-5.  Here is why that is bad news:

• Auburn hired Coach Huge Freeze to “right the ship” after Auburn suffered 2 consecutive losing seasons.
• Auburn was 6-7 under Freeze last season which was below .500 but it was an improvement.
• The remaining schedule for 2024 includes Texan A&M (7-2 overall) and Alabama (7-2 overall) along with La-Monroe after a BYE this weekend.
• Auburn needs to run the table to make it to a bowl game …
• Oh, just for giggles, the Vandy win in this game makes Vandy bowl-eligible more than two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, S. Carolina beat Texas A&M   44- 20.  I said last week that this might well be a let-down game for the Aggies – – and it was.  Nevertheless, the Aggies are still one of 5 teams in the SEC with only 1 conference loss as of today.  The rest of the SEC football season should be interesting.

In other SEC action, Ole Miss came back to life and demolished Arkansas 63-31.  The Rebels’ QB, Jaxon Dart, had himself a feast.  He threw for 500 yards and 6 TDs against the Razorbacks who seemed to be playing the game in slo-mo.  Ole Miss is 7-2 overall in 2024 and they have 2 conference losses.  However, they have an upcoming game against Georgia this week; Georgia is one of the SEC teams with only 1 conference loss; so, Ole Miss is not out of it just yet.

UAB was 1-6 going into last week’s scheduled game against Tulsa.  UAB was almost assuredly going to be on my “watch list” for the SHOE Tournament.  At halftime of the game against Tulsa, UAB was on top by a score of 45-7 and they “held on” to win 59-21.  Absent some sort of cataclysmic collapse, UAB probably escaped SHOE Tournament consideration for the year.

Indiana ran its record to 9-0 for the season on the road against Michigan State.  It was another blowout for the Hoosiers winning by a score of 47-10.  Here is a great stat from that game:

• Indiana held Michigan State to 12 yards rushing on 31 attempts.
• That works out to be 4.6 INCHES per rush attempt.

Penn State came up short against Ohio State at home again 20-13.  The Buckeyes have now won 8 games in a row over the Nittany Lions.  Penn St. had the ball inside the Ohio St. 5-yardline twice and scored zero points on those two possessions. There’s no way to pretend that was a positive set of circumstances; this extends James Franklin’s record against Ohio St. to 1-10.  Oof …

In ACC action, UNC spanked Florida St. 35-11; it may not have been that close.  UNC outgained Florida St. 500 yards on offense to 201 yards on offense.  The Seminoles record has cratered to 1-8 as of today …

SMU beat previously undefeated Pitt by a score of 48-25.  SMU is 8-1 overall and is 5-0 in conference games; the Mustangs are tied with the Miami Hurricanes atop the ACC with a 5-0 record in conference.  Just so you know, SMU and Miami are not scheduled to meet in the regular season – – but there is the ACC Championship Game and then the CFP to consider.

Louisville beat Clemson 33-21 last week making the Mustangs one of only two teams with no losses in ACC games this year.  Miami and Louisville lead the conference this morning, but Clemson and Pitt have only one conference loss each.  That race should be interesting …

Things did not go “according to plan” in the Big 12 last week.  Iowa St. was undefeated and ranked #11 last week.  The Cyclones lost outright to UCF 23-22.  That leaves BYU as the only team in the Big 12 with an unblemished record in conference games.  BYU has 4 games left on their dance card:

• At Utah – – HUGE rivalry game
• Vs Kansas – – Jayhawks have underperformed expectations this year but are still dangerous
• At Arizona St. – – The Sun Devils are 6-2 overall this morning
•  Vs Houston – – The Cougars are 4-5 for the season

Checking in on the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award for 2024:

• New Mexico (3-6 overall) gives up 40.8 points per game
• Utah State (2-6 overall) gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kent State  (0-8 overall) gives up 46.6 points per game.

And now it is time to begin a serious look at the teams who deserve – – nay, demand – – an invitation to the imaginary SHOE Tournament.  I have 12 teams on my “Watch List” this week and I will present them in alphabetical order lest anyone think I have made up my mind on any of these bad teams:

1. Air Force – – 1-7
2. Akron – – 2-7  The Zips seem to be appropriately named.
3. Florida St – – 1-8
4. Kennesaw St, – – 1-7
5. Kent State – – 0-9
6. New Mexico St – – 2-7   Aggies close out the season at home against UTEP.
7. Southern Mississippi – – 1-7
8. Purdue – – 1-7
9. Temple – – 3-6
10. Tulsa – – 3-6  Forget 3 wins, they lost to a 2-win UAB team by 38 points last week
11. UMass – – 2-7
12. UTEP – – 1-8 Plays Kennesaw St. this week.  Oh joy!

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) Iowa – 6 at UCLA (45):  For the 4^th time this year, Iowa scored 40 points or more in a game.  Should not happen again here…

Virginia at Pitt – 7 (57):  The Panthers’ offense could run roughshod in this contest because the Cavaliers’ defense allows just a tad under 28 points per game.

Iowa St. – 3 at Kansas (50):  The Cyclones laid an egg last week against UCF (see above).   Was that the start of a decline or were they looking ahead to this game?

Miami – 10.5 at Georgia Tech (64.5):  Miami is still undefeated; Ga. Tech is one of those teams that is not good enough to be in the Top 10 but just good enough to be a tough out for teams that are in the Top 10.

Navy – 3 at USF (58):  Navy has lost two in a row after starting out the season with six straight wins.

Purdue at Ohio St. – 38 (54):  A CFP team hosts a SHOE candidate.  Oh my …

Nevada at Boise St. – 24 (61):  Nevada gives up 156.4 yards per game on the ground.  Boise St. averages 267.9 yards per game on the ground.  I wonder what the game plan here might be …

Colorado – 3.5 at Texas Tech (63):  Colorado has 1 conference loss; Texas Tech has 2 conference losses; this is a big game.

Georgia – 2.5 at Ole Miss (53):  The Rebels rank 2^nd in the nation in Total Offense per game (555.4 yards per game).  The Dawgs rank 12^th in the nation in Total Defense (295.3 yards per game).  A loss for Ole Miss might eliminate them from CFP consideration.  I’ll side with the Georgia defense here and take the Dawgs on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

South Carolina – 3.5 at Vandy (45):  Both teams rely on their defenses …

Army – 5 at North Texas (64):  Army seeks to remain undefeated in 2024 …

Maryland at Oregon – 25 (58):  The Terps take a long airplane ride for the purpose of taking a tail-kicking …

Michigan at Indiana – 14.5 (50):  If I had written that line back in August, you would have thought I was onto some new hallucinogen here in Curmudgeon Central …

Washington at Penn St. – 13.5 (46):  An important game for Penn St.  They need to rebound from last week’s loss to Ohio St.

Kennesaw St. at UTEP – 4 (42.5):  SHOE candidate versus SHOE candidate.  The epitome of ugliness for the week …

Florida St. at Notre Dame – 26 (42.5):  A CFP aspirant hosts a team seeking to avoid the SHOE Tournament.

Alabama – 2.5 at LSU (57):  LSU has 1 conference loss; Alabama has 2 conference losses.  Playing in Baton Rouge at night is never easy.  This is the College Game of the Week.  The loser here will probably not make it to the CFP.

BYU – 3.5 at Utah (40.5):  This is the biggest rivalry game on tap for this week.  BYU is undefeated and ranked such that they would get a CFP bid as of this morning.  Utah is a tough defensive squad dealing with plenty of injuries.  I think BYU stays unbeaten here and covers in a low scoring affair; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

My comments this week will focus on some of the less-than-positive situations surrounding some NFL QBs.  Let me start with Derek Carr of the Saints.  In Week 17, Carr and the Saints will host the Las Vegas Raiders in what appears today to be a meaningless game; both teams are 2-7 as of this morning.  Nonetheless, circle that game on your calendar – – not for watching but for following.  Here’s why:

• Derek Carr has now played in games where he has lost to 31 of the 32 NFL teams.
• Derek Carr has never lost to the Raiders – – because he used to play for the Raiders, and one cannot lose to oneself in football.
• No QB has ever achieved that level of frustration.  It could happen on December 29, 2024.

But wait … If Derek Carr manages to dodge that infamy, there is another NFL QB who might be in the crosshairs of such a status.

• Joe Flacco has lost to 30 of the 32 NFL teams.
• One of the teams never to have lost to a Flacco-quarterbacked team is the Lions.
• The Lions will play the Colts on Nov. 24^th this year.  If Flacco is still starting for the Colts there, the Lions will be favored in the game…
• That would mean that Joe Flacco might lose to all 32 teams should he ever face the Bucs and lose.

Having mentioned these potential accomplishments related to losing, let me inject here a thought from Morgan Wooten:

“You learn more from losing than winning.  You learn how to keep going.”

Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston was pressed into service as the starting QB for the Browns after Deshaun Watson injured his leg.  The Browns won that game, and Winston was the hero with a game-closing TD pass capping a 300+ yard passing performance.  Well, last week, Jameis Winston reverted to the mean; he threw three INTs, and the Browns lost to the Chargers 27-10.

The Giants’ QB situation is similarly yo-yo-like; Daniel Jones can be very good one week and mystifyingly awful the next.  Consider his stat line from the first half of last week’s game where the Giants lost to the Commanders 27-22:

• 4 of 6 for ZERO yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs

Meanwhile, Jags’ QB, Trevor Lawrence, looks at Jones’ first half stats and smiles because those stats are so bizarre that they obfuscate how poorly he played in the first half last week against the Eagles.  Here is the story:

• 4 of 10 for 23 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

Leaving QB issues aside for a moment, there was another bit of strangeness in the NFL last week.  The Cowboys not only benched RB, Ezekiel Elliott, but they left him home and did not have him accompany the team on the road in Atlanta.  That situation was explained by saying it was a “disciplinary issue”; after the game, there has been reporting that Elliott had been late to several meetings and then simply blew off a scheduled meeting and never showed up at all.

It isn’t strange for teams to discipline players for missing meetings; that happens every season.  What is strange here is who was punished.  Remember, after the Cowboys lost RB Tony Pollard to free agency, GM Jerry Jones brought Elliott back to Dallas with a goodly amount of fanfare; the vibe was super-positive; Zeke had come home where he belonged.  And now this …?

Speaking of the Cowboys, I wonder if it might make more long-range sense for the team to start Trey Lance at QB for the next several weeks.  Yes, when Dak Prescott is back from his hamstring injury, the team will have to start the guy they are paying $60M per year, but Dak will be on the shelf for about a month and that might be an opportunity in this sense:

• The Cowboys are a long shot to make the playoffs in 2024.
• They know what they have and what they can expect from Cooper Rush as their backup QB.  He is a model backup; he can be inserted into a game on the fly, and he can play a few games when needed without embarrassing himself or the team.
• They do not know what they have and what they might expect from Trey Lance.  So, maybe they should try and find out because if Lance also shows as a model backup QB, that might give the team a trade asset because teams normally do not keep 2 backups on the same roster.

The problem with that sort of reasoning is that it rests on a foundation that the Cowboys recognize that the 2024 NFL Playoffs are going to happen without Cowboys’ participation.  And I suspect that is not a thought that has entered the mind of Jerry Jones.

Now that the NFL season is around the half-way mark, let me pose a question for everyone here.  So far, who is the “Comeback Player of the Year”?  I think there are four candidates:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Nick Chubb
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Sam Darnold

Yes, I know that Darnold is not coming back from an injury or illness, but he is coming back to a level of prominence that has evaded him since he left USC and came to the NFL.  At the moment, my “vote” would go to Cousins – – but there are still games to be played.

The Washington Commanders are beginning to get some positive attention outside the DC area; the team is fun to watch, and they are quite good.  It has been at least 25 years since that team has been either fun to watch or quite good; the rest of the country needs to “rediscover” this franchise.

Head coach, Dan Quinn, and GM, Adam Peters have changed the roster and changed the entire environment for the team.  Jayden Daniels gets loads of positive coverage, and he deserves every bit of it – – but the rest of the roster is solid particularly now that GM Peters acquired Marshon Lattimore in a trade at the deadline.  Lattimore is a top-shelf CB, and the main vulnerability of the Commanders was their pass defense.  Peters got Lattimore for a third-round pick; I doubt there will be a CB of Lattimore’s ability available in next year’s third round of the draft.

The NFC West could not be a tighter race; here is the table as of this morning:

1. Cards   5-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
2. Rams  4-4   Won the last 3 games in a row
3. Niners  4-4  Won their last game and had a BYE last week
4. Seahawks  4-5  Lost their last 2 games

The Cards look good this year; the Rams have broken even despite injuries to both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua; the Niners have yet to see Christian McCaffrey in uniform; the Seahawks will be a tough out if their defense ever comes around.  There are plenty of division games still to be played in 2024 and they should be worth watching.

Let me comment on a few of last week’s NFL contests:

Lions 24  Packers 14:  Not only did this give the Lions sole possession of first placed in the AFC North, but it also gave them their second division win on the road.  The Lions hold tiebreakers head-to-head at this point over both the Vikes and the Packers with rematches going to be played in Detroit.  That was a big win for the Lions.

Chargers 27  Browns 10:  The Chargers’ defense needs to take a bow here.  For the season the Chargers only give up an average of 12.5 points per game; in this game the Chargers’ defense recorded 6 sacks and 3 INTs.  Not a bad day at the office …

Cards 29  Bears 9:  The Bears’ OL needs a lot of help.  Caleb Williams was sacked 6 times in this game by a defense that makes no one think of the Steel Curtain.

Rams 26  Seahawks 20 (OT):  The Rams’ defense had 7 sacks and 3 INTs in this game and needed OT to get the win.  [Aside:  One of those INTs turned into a “Pick-Six”] Normally, that sort of defensive performance produces a comfy win in regulation time.

Jets 21  Texans 13:  The Texans’ offense is not very good without Stefon Diggs (out for the year) and Nico Collins (on IR) to play WR.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams will be on their BYE Week this weekend:

1. Browns:  At 2-7, the Browns’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Fantastical”.
2. Packers:  At 6-3, the Packers need to regroup and prepare for a run at the Vikes and Lions who are ahead of them in the NFC North.  The fact that the Packers are 0-2 in division games is not helpful.
3. Raiders:  At 2-7, the Raiders’ aspirations for the playoffs should be filed under “Delusional”.
4. Seahawks:  At 4-5 they are in a tight race in the NFC West (see above) and if they are going to be in the race there to the end, they must fix their defense and they have a BYE Week to work on that.

            Last night, the Ravens came back to beat the Bengals 35-34.  The game was fun to watch, and the outcome was decided by the fact that the team making the last bad decision lost the game.  If you did not see the game, go find any of a hundred reports that will break the game down in detail; the Bengals’ coaching staff made several risky choices in the 4^th quarter and all of them went against the Bengals.

Giants – 6.5 vs Panthers (40.5) Game is in Munich, Germany:  This is without question the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  It is a sell-out in Munich; if this were played in the US, they might only be able to sell out a high school venue.  Both teams stink; the outcome here is only important with regard to the draft order next April.  As you find something – – ANYTHING – – else to do early on Sunday morning try to answer this philosophical conundrum:

• What is worse
  • • Watching the Giants play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play ineptly in an NFL game?
    • Watching the Panthers play the Giants in an inept NFL game?

You make the call …

Bills – 4 at Colts (47):  Teams have been able to do business on the ground against the Bills’ defense so far this year and the Colts are a run-focused team because they do not pass the ball very well.  Can Jonathan Taylor and his running buddies keep this game close?

Vikes – 7 at Jags (44):  This spread opened at 4 points and has jumped to this level as the week wore on.  The Vikes are 12^th in the NFL in passing offense in 2024 averaging 222.1 yards per game.  The Jags are 31^st in the NFL in passing defense giving up 264.3 yards per game.  Sam Darnold pads his stats here…

Steelers at Commanders – 3 (45.5):  This is my Game of the Week.  The spread opened at 1.5 points and has been climbing steadily all week long indicating there is an abundance of “Commanders’ money” coming through the windows.  The Commanders are 7-2 at the time of the kickoff; that is the best 9-game start to a season by that franchise since 1996; as I said above, these guys are good.  Having said that, they have not yet faced a defense quite as stingy as the Steelers’ defense – – which only got better with the addition of Preston Smith at the trade deadline.  The Steelers are coming off their BYE Week and have a slim lead in the AFC North to protect here given that the Ravens won last night.  I’ll take the Steelers plus the points on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Falcons – 4 at Saints (46):  The only reason I will pay attention to this game is to see if the Saints find temporary inspiration under their interim head coach, Darren Rizzi.  Perhaps some inspiration will come if players recognize that a new regime in New Orleans might decide to clean out the roster meaning they might need to find work on the free agent market coming to that status from a team that stunk out the joint in 2024.

Broncos at Chiefs – 8 (41.5):  The Chiefs will eventually lose a game – – however, I do not think Bo Nix and the Broncos are going to be the instruments of such an outcome.

Niners – 6.5 at Bucs (50):  The Bucs lost in OT on Monday night last week; the Niners had the week off.  Maybe Christian McCaffrey is back for this game – – or not?  The Niners’ defense ranks 10^th in the league in Total Defense and they are rested; the Bucs’ offense is depleted by injuries particularly at the WR position.  This game has the potential to be a rout …

Pats at Bears – 6 (39):  This game got a fleeting thought regarding its “Dog-Breath Potential”; the Pats are not very good, and the Bears have lost two in a row.  The most interesting feature of the game is #1 pick Caleb Williams going up against #3 pick Drake Maye.  Other than that, …

Titans at Chargers – 7 (39):  I think this game is a mismatch.  The Chargers are a good team playing good football under Jim Harbaugh; the Titans are not a good team.  I think the Chargers win this game in a walk; I’ll take the Chargers to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Eagles – 7 at Cowboys (43.5):  I toyed with this game as the Game of the Week because it is a division game and because a loss for the Cowboys would be devastating to their playoff hopes.  But that was not enough …  The spread here opened at 3 points and exploded to 7 points presumably as it became clear that Dak Prescott’s injury will have him out of action for several weeks; the total line also plummeted on that news from 48.5 points to 43.5 points.  The Eagles’ offense ranks 6^th in the league at 377.1 yards per game; the Cowboys defense ranks 27^th in the league giving up 364.8 yards per game.  I think that is the key match-up in the game.

Jets – 2 at Cards (46.5):  Both teams give up 133 yards per game on the ground.  The Cards average 149.7 yards per game rushing and the Jets average 87.7 yards per game on the ground.  I think that is the biggest statistical match-up to watch for as the game evolves.

(Sun Nite) Lions – 3.5 at Texans (49.5):  This game also got Game of the Week consideration; the Lions arrive at the kickoff riding a 6-game winning streak; only the undefeated Chiefs have a longer one.  The Lions are averaging 31 points per game; the Texans only give up 22 points per game.  This game will be a nice way to cap off a full day of NFL entertainment.

(Mon Nite) Dolphins at Rams – 1 (50):  The Rams need this game to stay in the mix in the NFC West (see above).  The Dolphins need this game to avoid the calamity of seeing their record fall to 2-7 making their already slim playoff probability vanishingly small.

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Georgia – 2.5 over Ole Miss
• BYU – 3.5 over Utah
• Steelers +3 against Commanders
• Chargers – 7 over Titans

And here are three Money Line Parlays for your entertainment:

• BYU @ minus-150
• Miami @ minus-380   $100 wager to win $111.

 

• Army @ minus-190
• Navy @ minus-160
• Chiefs @ minus-390   $100 wager to win $212

 

• Vikes @ minus-290
• Chargers @ minus-350
• Steelers @ +130     $100 wager to win $298.

Finally, some words from Vince Lombardi:

“The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The New Orleans Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen earlier this week.  The Saints opened the season with two dominant wins and then proceeded to lose seven games in a row.  The last loss had to be considered “rock bottom” because the woebegone Panthers were the winners.  So, the team will move on under new supervision.

Dennis Allen was in his second iteration as a head coach in the NFL.  From 2012 through the first four games of the 2014 season, Allen led the Raiders to a record of 8-28-0.  His calling card in the NFL had been on the defensive side of the ball, and he returned to his specialty after his firing in Oakland.  He was on the Saints’ staff as defensive coordinator when Sean Payton announced that he was going to “step aside” as the Saints’ head coach.  With Payton’s future personal plans in doubt, the Saints simply promoted Allen to the top job probably anticipating a Sean Payton return.  Ooops …

From 2022 through the first nine games of the 2024 season, Allen’s record in New Orleans was a less than stellar 18-25-0 – – but it was an improvement over his time in Oakland.  We shall see if the team reverts to the juggernaut status it flashed at the start of the season; odds are that won’t happen.

But the fact that two coaches have already been shown the door in the NFL this year – – Robert Saleh late of the Jets along with Dennis Allen – – makes me wonder who else might not see the end of the 2024 season wearing the same team gear on the sidelines on Sunday afternoons.  And as I let my mind wander around the league, one of the first stops I made was with the Raiders.

Antonio Pierce took over in the middle of last year and the Raiders responded well.  Mark Davis bestowed a three-year contract on Davis, but the terms have never been reported.  And the Raiders are a mess.

Just this week, Pierce fired his Offensive Coordinator, Luke Getsy along with the Raiders’ OL coach and the Raiders’ QB coach.  Here are stats that suggest that might be a good idea:

• Raiders rank 29^th in the league in Total Offense
• The three teams below the Raiders are the Panthers, Browns and Pats.  Ugh …
• Raiders’ defense is no prize either ranking 29^th in the league in points allowed.
• Raiders are losing by an average of 9 points per game.  Oof …

Two points about Pierce’s decisions here:

1. He said these were 100% his decisions.
2. Isn’t he the guy who hired those assistants less than a year ago?

Might Antonio Pierce be the next one out the door?

If not Pierce, let me suggest that time may be running out on Doug Pederson in Jax.  His reputation is that he works well with QBs and in Jax he was supposed to turn the raw generational talent of Trevor Lawrence into a polished crystal that might make people forget about players like Peyton Manning and John Elway.  Let me simply assert that nothing of the sort has come from the duo of Pederson and Lawrence over the past two-and-a-half seasons.  In Year 1 in Jax, Pederson’s Jags won the division and made the playoffs.  In Year 2 in Jax, the Jags finished second in the division and missed the playoffs.  In Year 3, the Jags find themselves dead last in the division with a 2-7 record.  That is not exactly the sort of trajectory that head coaches seek …

Maybe I am reaching here, but perhaps Brian Daboll is on thin ice with the Giants.  In his first year with the Giants, he was named Coach of the Year, and the Giants were 9-7-1.  Last year the Giants faded to 6-11 but there were plenty of injuries that could take some of the blame for that regression.  So far this year, the Giants are also 2-7 and they occupy last place in their division.  Here is why I think Daboll might be in danger:

• This week the Giants play the woebegone Panthers in Munich Germany.
• If – – I said IF – – the Giants lose by double digits to a team with a point differential of minus-146 so far in 2024, he might have to buy a ticket on a commercial flight home.

These are not predictions; I am not rooting for any of these folks to be fired and humiliated.  I simply suggest here that if changing out head coaches catches fire in the NFL over the next several weeks, these are three potential candidates for a pink slip.

Finally, since today has been about coaches getting fired, let me close with this observation by Leo Durocher:

“If you don’t win, you’re going to be fired. If you do win, you’ve only put off the day you’re going to be fired.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

When teams go through seasons that are “hugely disappointing” and/or “brutally incompetent”, there is often a coach-firing event during the season or a nanosecond after the final whistle of the final game.  In most cases, my position is that the problem might reside in the construction of the roster and not the shortcomings of the coaching staff.  Indeed, it is far more common for in-season coaching changes to produce what Wall Street commentators call the “dead cat bounce”.  On Wall Street that means the price of the stock of a company about to go belly-up plummets toward zero but along the way it has some upticks – – if you drop a dead cat, it will bounce a bit when it hits bottom but that is not going to save the company.

The Dallas Cowboys’ record in 2024 is 3-5-0; considering that the Cowboys’ leadership labeled the season as “all in” back around Labor Day, that is worse than “underachieving” or “disappointing”; that is simply “unacceptably bad”.  There will be no surprise here when the Cowboys make major changes once this season is in the books and try to move on to next year as another “all in season.”

There is an additional level of housecleaning necessary in Dallas; in fact, it has parallels to Greek mythology.  Recall one of Hercules’ twelve labors was to clean the Augean stables.  According to the myth, King Augeas’ stables had not been cleaned for 30 years even though it was home to thousands of oxen; Hercules achieved the cleaning by tearing holes in the walls and then diverting the flow of a nearby river through trenches he had dug for that purpose.  It is not clear from the myth how the people living downstream of the diverted river flow enjoyed their newfound riparian rights; I guess that is left to the readers’ imaginations.

The Dallas Cowboys need a similar cleansing; there are significant and obvious flaws in the construction of the roster in 2024; there just isn’t a lot of room to pretend that is not the case.  So, changing the coaching staff is cosmetic in the case of the Cowboys because the underlying problem is that the GM (Jerry Jones) is also the owner (Jerry Jones), and the owner is not going to fire the GM which would be the first step to charting a new course for the team.  To return to the Hercules myth, King Augeas did not tell Hercules how he had to clean those stables because if he constrained the problem sufficiently, Herc would not have been able to work his mythical powers.

Let me be very careful here to point out that there are boundaries on what I am going to say next:

• Jerry Jones suffers from a “syndrome” that was a hallmark of Danny Boy Snyder’s behavior whilst Snyder owned the Washington franchise.

I do NOT mean that Jones has engaged in the kinds of sleazy behaviors that have been alleged and reported on during the “Snyder Era” in Washington. What I mean here is that Danny Boy thought he knew a lot about football and what it took to build a champion; Snyder was an ”active participant” in the Draft and he once fired a coach because the coach chose not to start the QB that Snyder wanted him to.  For all the protests of thirsting to being a winner to DC, it was always clear to me that such an accomplishment would not be enough for Danny Boy; his team needed to win a Super Bowl in such a way that it was an accomplishment made possible directly through Snyder’s “football acumen”.  And the fact that kept getting in the way there was that Snyder’s “football acumen” was a mere drop in the river that Herc used to wash away all that bovine excrement in the Greek myth.

• Sound familiar to Cowboys’ fans yet?

The problem in Dallas is that it seems to be the only way to chart a new heading for the team must involve Owner Jones replacing GM Jones.  And that is not going to happen without GM Jones taking significant punishment to his ego for the shortage of his “football acumen”.  Remember, Jones had a falling out with Jimmy Johnson after Johnson won the Super Bowl twice with the Cowboys because, in part, Johnson was seen to be the architect of that accomplishment and not Jones.  That happened in 1994, which was 30 years ago, and which was the timespan over which the Augean Stables had not been cleaned.

• Coincidence?  You make the call …

Moving on …  Gregg Popovich is absent from the San Antonion Spurs’ bench at the moment with an “undisclosed health issue”.  Popovich is 75 years old and has had to miss some time on the bench; there was a similar circumstance where Popovich had to miss some time as the team coach due to health concerns a couple of years ago but the reports surrounding this “health issue” have a significantly darker tone than I recall from the previous incident.

ESPN’s Shams Charania said that there is “a great level of concern” related to the current situation and that the current issue is a “serious health issue”.  The only reporting on this subject that seems a bit encouraging to me is that Popovich is supposedly “at home and in good spirits” and that he has been in touch with his assistant coaches in addition to whatever medical folks are involved in his treatment.

Popovich has been the coach in San Antonio since 1996; his regular season record is 1388 – 821 for a win percentage of .628.

• Memo to Gregg Popovich:  Get well soon.  Then stay well.

Finally, let me close with this quote from Jerry Jones to suggest that he may not have as much “football acumen” as he thinks he does:

“This quarterback [Brandon] Weeden can drive the ball down field. He’s a thing of beauty on throwing a football. His passing motion and his arm, frankly, you won’t see a more gifted passer, power, accuracy, the entire aspect of it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The time has come for my quadrennial interlude.  Today is Election Day and it is important that every intelligent and informed citizen carries out their responsibility to vote.  My long-suffering wife and I voted last week in person at our local polling place to avoid any long lines at the polls; if you are registered and have not voted, please make time today to go and do so.

• I do not care for whom you vote; that is none of my business; you can choose vote for “my candidate” or “another candidate”; the important thing is that you vote.

And now back to our regularly scheduled ranting…

I want to focus today on a sports issue that relates to voting albeit not in any way similar in consequence to the Presidential election underway here.  I want to present to you some data and then ask a question about “voting” for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  Here is a list of 8 coaches who are in the Hall of Fame for their accomplishments.  I will list them alphabetically with their win/loss record and win percentage appended.  Before I begin the list, let me note that these are not all the coaches in the Hall of Fame but that I do not believe that anyone would think that these guys slithered in through the cracks; I submit that all eight of these coaches are rightfully enshrined in Canton, OH:

1. Bill Cowher:   149 – 90 – 1    .623
2. Joe Gibbs:   154 – 94 – 0    .623
3. Sid Gillman:   122 – 99 – 7   .552
4. Bud Grant:   158 – 96 – 5   .621
5. Tom Landry:   250 – 152 – 6   .607
6. Chuck Noll:   193 – 148 – 1   .566
7. Hank Stram:   131 – 97 – 10   .574
8. Bill Walsh:   92 – 59 – 1   .603

            Before I present a candidate for the Hall of Fame and his coaching record, can we all agree that every coach on my list here belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame?

Now let me offer up Candidate X for Hall of Fame consideration:

• Coach X was a head coach in the NFL for 4 different teams over a span of 21 seasons.
• Coach X posted a record of 200 – 126 – 1  winning percentage = .613
• Coach X never won a Super Bowl trophy – – but neither did Bud Grant or Sid Gillman on the list above.
• Coach X is not in the Pro Football Hall of Fame despite his record fitting very comfortably in the range of records for those eight fully deserving coaches.

            So, who is this mystery coach who has been “denied his due”?  That is the coaching record of Marty Shottenheimer who was the head coach in Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington and San Diego.  [Aside:  He is also the one and only head coach of the Washington franchise during the Daniel Snyder Era to come out of that experience without a losing record.  Joe Gibbs on the list of Hall of Fame coaches above could not do that.]

The only knock on Shottenheimer’s record that jumps out at me is his failure in the playoffs and his failure to win a Super Bowl.  However, his teams did make the playoffs 13 times in his 21 seasons at the helm and those were times before the playoffs expanded to 12 and 14 teams each year.  So, what’s the deal here?

• No, I do not believe that there is a mysterious cabal of Hall of Fame voters that has conspired to keep Marty Shottenheimer out of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
• No, I do not think there is some measure of “secret sordid circumstances” in his career or his life.
• I simply think he has been overlooked.

Finally, the motto of the Pro Football Hall of Fame is:

• Honor the Greatest of the Game.

The “numbers” here tell me that one of the “Greatest of the Game” has slipped into a crack.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Over the weekend, I ran across an image posted on Facebook – – as I recall – – of Randy Johnson about to release a pitch with the caption that this was one of his 413 strikeouts in a previous MLB season.  I thought to myself, “I don’t recall anyone ever striking out more than 400 batters in a season; if he did that there would have been a humongous hullabaloo and I would remember that.”  Thank you, Google.  It was not difficult to find a list of the MLB strikeout leaders by season and if you only consider the modern era – – post 1900 – – no pitcher ever struck out 400 batters in a season.  Nolan Ryan struck out 383 batters in the 1973 season and that is the modern era record for strikeouts in a season.

However, that search and the verification that the image I saw was “fake news” did produce something I did not know and something I find interesting; the top 12 season leading totals for strikeouts in a season has the following entries:

• Randy Johnson is on the list 5 times
• Nolan Ryan is on the list 4 times.
• The other three pitchers on the list are Sandy Koufax (1965), Bob Feller (1946) and Rube Waddell (1904).
• Gerritt Cole is the only active pitcher who comes close to this “Top 12”.  He is 14^th on the list having struck out 326 batters in 2019.

Sticking with MLB stuff for the moment, Bob Costas announced that he will end his career of broadcasting MLB games after four-plus decades behind the microphone.  His final game was the last one in the ALCS this year on TNT Sports.  Costas is 72 years old, and his “retirement” only applies to play-by-play broadcasting.  Costas will continue to be part of MLB network and will contribute to various studio programs on that network.  I have always enjoyed Costas on the radio and on TV going all the way back to his time with Tony Kubek about 35 years ago.

I am sorry to know he will not be doing play-by-play anymore because I always thought he was outstanding in that endeavor.  [Aside:  I know it is bordering on blasphemy to say so, but I preferred to hear Costas than Scully doing a game.]  However, I am glad to hear that he will still be involved with baseball communications on MLB Network and with some writing opportunities.

Have a great retirement, Good Sir.  You have earned it and thank you for good works…

One more historical baseball note today …  If you had a time machine – – like Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine – – you could set the date for July 2, 1963.  A baseball game that day between the San Francisco Giants and the Milwaukee Braves provided a spectacle that has not been seen since then.

• The starting pitchers were Juan Marichal and Warren Spahn.
• At the end of the 15^th inning, the score was tied 0-0 and both starting pitchers were still in the game.
• Marichal continued his shutout in the top of the 16^th inning.
• With one out in the bottom of the 16tth inning, Spahn gave up a home run to Willie Mays to end the game 1-0.
• Warren Spahn threw 201 pitches in this game.
• Juan Marichal threw 227 pitches in this game.

In current baseball, managers get the vapors when a starting pitcher approaches 100 pitches in a game and/or must go through the batting order for a third time.  According to the box score for that game, both pitchers went through the batting order 6 times and started on a seventh sojourn.  Those were different times…

And speaking of “different times” let me close today with a quote from President Teddy Roosevelt.  No US President would dare say this today:

“The reason fat men are so good natured is they can neither fight nor run.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

It has been an unusual end-of-summer/start-of-autumn here in Curmudgeon Central with travel commitments ranging from Namibia/South Africa to Hawaii to New York to Philly and healthcare situations involving my long-suffering wife making me a “caregiver” – – a role I am not accustomed to at all.  All of that has precluded my having the time to follow football nearly as closely as I have done in previous years; that is the reason for the lack of Football Fridays to date.  Looking at the rest of the football season, there will be one weekend spent at sportsbooks with the “Las Vegas Crowd” and there will be a visit from the Dublin part of the family at Christmas.  I should be able to work around those events at least to some extent meaning:

• Football Fridays are back!

So, let me begin by catching up on the Linfield University Wildcats and their pursuit of another football season with a record above .500; they have done that every season since 1956 save for 2020 when their football season was cancelled due to COVID.  I am happy to announce:

• The Wildcats’ record in 2024 is 6-1 and since they play a 10-game schedule, they have indeed achieved a record above .500 for yet another year.

Linfield plays in the Northwest Conference; the champion of that conference gets an invitation to the Division III playoffs.  Linfield is 4-0 in Northwest conference games and has dominated those 4 opponents to the tune of 230 points to 34 points.  This week the Wildcats are on the road to play Pacific University in Forest Grove, OR.  The Boxers bring a 3-4 record to the contest.  Go Wildcats!

I shall also check on my previously identified “sleeper team” in Division 1-A college football – – the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  As of this morning the Huskers ate 5-3 with two of those losses coming at the hands of perennial powerhouse Ohio State and the team that is probably the biggest surprise in college football, Indiana.  To achieve bowl-eligibility, Nebraska needs to find a win in one of their last four games which are:

• Vs. UCLA
• At USC
• Vs. Wisconsin
• At Iowa.

Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Having mentioned Indiana above, let me say why they are probably the most surprising team in college football this year.  [Aside:  I know Vandy fans will claim this label for their team; their arguments are valid; hence, my label for Indiana as “probably the most surprising” …]  The Hoosiers’ recent role in Big-10 football has been to be a punching bag; the last time Indiana won the Big-10 was in 1967.  So far in 2024:

• Indiana is 8-0
• Indiana has outscored opponents 382 – 113.
• Indiana is second in the country in scoring offense
• Indiana is seventh in the country in scoring defense

The next three weeks will be challenging for Indiana:

• At Michigan State – – Sparty is 3-1 at home this year
• Vs. Michigan
• At Ohio State – – The Buckeyes are 5-0 at home this year.

If I have counted correctly, there are 8 undefeated teams left in Division 1-A:

1. Army – – Ranked 21^st with a 7-0 record
2. BYU – – Ranked 9^th with a record of 8-0
3. Indiana – – Ranked 13^th with a record of 8-0
4. Iowa St. – – Ranked 11^th with a record of 7-0
5. Miami – – Ranked 5^th with a record of 8-0
6. Oregon – – Ranked 1^st with a record of 8-0
7. Penn St. – – Ranked 3^rd with a record of 7-0
8. Pitt – – Ranked 18^th with a record of 7-0

I know that Deion Sanders is a controversy magnet, and I recognize that he is at least part huckster in his dealings with the public.  But you have to give him his due; he has been able to assemble and coach up a competent football team that was embarrassingly bad only two seasons ago.  The Buffaloes are 6-2 this year (bowl-eligible before Halloween) and they are 3-1 on the road.  Colorado has 4 games left and only one opponent (Texas Tech) has a winning record as of today.  It is possible – not likely but possible – that Colorado could finish with a 10-2 record after going 1-11 just two years ago.

When I said Indiana – – or maybe Vandy – – was the biggest surprise team in the country this year, I was focused on “positive surprises”.  Since that is not the norm here in Curmudgeon Central, let me take a moment and identify the biggest negative surprise for 2024 to date:

• The Florida State Seminoles

This is a blueblood program going back to the days of Bobby Bowden.  In the two seasons leading up to this one, the Seminoles’ combined record was 23-4.  As of this morning, Florida State carries a 1-7 record, and the one victory was over Cal by the score of 14-9.

• The Seminoles rank 131^st in the country in Total Offense
• The Seminoles rank 81^st in the country in Total Defense
• The Seminoles rank 112^th in the country in Sacks Allowed
• The Seminoles rank 81^st in the country in Penalties Assessed

Here are the last 4 games of the season for Florida State:

• Vs. UNC – – Tar Heels are 4-4 on the season – – a winnable game?
• At Notre Dame – – Irish are ranked #8 in the country
• Vs. Charleston Southern – – Lose this home game and beware of torches and pitchforks
• Vs. Florida – – Call this one the Underachievement Bowl

Here is an observation by Bobby Bowden that might apply to this year’s Seminoles’ team:

“To have the kind of year you want to have, something has to happen that you can’t explain why it happened. Something has to happen that you can’t coach.”

Let me review some of last week’s games:

Texas A&M 38  LSU 23:  The Aggies rallied in the second half to get this win.  The Aggies are undefeated in SEC games and lead the conference as of today.  They have a clear shot to the SEC Championship Game and a slot in the expanded CFP.  The Aggies’ final game of the season is on Nov 30^th when they host the Texas Longhorns.  Circle that game on your calendar…

Iowa 40  Northwestern 14:  That is the third time this year that Iowa has scored exactly 40 points in a game.  In recent years, it might have taken Iowa 12 quarters of football to amass 40 points.

Ohio St. 21  Nebraska 17:  The Buckeyes had to come from behind to win this one over my “sleeper team” for 2024…

Pitt 41  Syracuse 13:  Undefeated Pitt was a measly 3-9 last year so this is quite the turnaround.  An oddity in this game is that the Panthers had three Pick-Sixes; you don’t see that very often.

Alabama 34  Missouri 0:  This game was never close.  What started out as a promising season for Mizzou came up short last week.  That is their second conference loss putting 5 teams ahead of them in the SEC with fewer losses plus Alabama which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Texas 27  Vandy 24:  Back in August, this looked almost like a BYE Week for the Longhorns, but they had to fight to win this battle.  I had not seen Vandy QB, Diego Pavia, play before last week; he has an unusual style that is very effective; if you get the chance to see Vandy play, he is worth watching.

Baylor 38  Oklahoma St. 28:  Believe it or not, Oklahoma St, is 0-5 in conference games.  Back in August there were folks who thought they were in the upper echelon of the conference teams.  As of today, the Cowboys are the only team in the Big 12 without a conference win.

Looking at the contenders for the Brothel Defense Award for 2024 – – the college defense that gets scored upon most easily – – here are the “Top 3”:

• Ball State gives up 40.4 points per game
• Utah State gives up 41.5 points per game
• Kent State gives up 46.6 points per game

That list is a sad “State” of affairs…  Sorry!

Next week, I will begin to winnow the list for my imaginary SHOE Tournament which – if ever implemented – would determine the worst team of the year by play on the field.  This week I only have a few preliminary observations:

• Kent State is the nation’s last winless team and is “leading” the pack for the Brothel Defense Award.  They are a heavy favorite to make the Tournament.
• Southern Miss not only loses; they lose big time.  If you only look at games against Division 1-A opponents, they lose by an average of 26 points per game.
• Kennesaw St. won its first game of the year last week beating previously unbeaten Liberty.  But they are still in “Tournament contention”.  That is the first time Kennesaw St. beat a Division 1-A team in school history.

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri Nite) San Diego St at Boise St – 23.5 (57):  Boise St. looks as if it will be the Group of 5 entry into the CFP this year – – but they need to run the table…

Vandy at Auburn – 7 (48):  Let me be sure I understand this.  Vandy beat Alabama on the road and Vandy lost to Texas by a field goal last week.  And now Auburn is a full touchdown favorite this week …

Indiana – 8 at Michigan St (52):  The Hoosier Express keeps on keeping on …

UNC – 2 at Florida St. (48):  With a loss here, the Seminoles will be 1-8 and will be on the watch list for the SHOE Tournament.

Florida vs. Georgia – 16 (52.2):  The Gators need to find two more wins to become bowl-eligible.  This is not one of them.

Pitt at SMU – 7 (58):  The Panthers are undefeated so far in 2024 and are a full touchdown underdog here.

Navy – 11 at Rice (50):  Navy lost its first game of the year last week to Notre Dame.  Rice is 2-6 on the season and just fired their coach.  Hi ho …

UCLA at Nebraska – 6.5 (40):  My “sleeper team” is favored at home.  Go Huskers!

Oregon – 14 at Michigan (46):  The Ducks are ranked #1 in the country.  The Wolverines are 5-1 at home.  I gave this game consideration as the College Game of the Week.

Texas A&M – 3 at South Carolina (44):  A let-down game for the Aggies after beating LSU …?

Ohio St. – 3.5 at Penn St (45):  This is the College Game of the Week.  Ohio St is ranked #4 in the country and Penn St is ranked #3.

Wisconsin at Iowa – 3 (40):  This is not your father’s Iowa football team; Iowa has scored 40 points in three games so far this year (see above).  I have to take this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

As the NFL trade deadline approaches, there is some movement where playoff-hopeful teams try to add a piece or two to their rosters for a final push.  Bottom-dwellers hope to extract draft capital from those top teams in order to rebuild.  And then, there is this trade:

• Ravens get WR Diontae Johnson plus a 6tt round pick from Panthers
• Panthers get a 5^th round pick.

The Panthers are a bad team; their 6^th round pick is going to be at or near the top of Round 6.  Meanwhile, the Ravens are a top team and their 5^th round pick is going to be near the bottom of Round 5.  Just focus on that part of the trade; it is pretty much a “pick swap” that may only be separated by 3-5 picks deep into the third day of the draft.  From that perspective, why did the Panthers also give up their best WR in the deal?

I don’t know who the architect of the roster is in Carolina and who is pulling the strings, but that trade is a total mystery unless Johnson was such a humongous pain in the ass that it will be a benefit to the Panthers to have him reporting to work somewhere else.

The Panthers say they are going to start Bryce Young again this week and they plan to continue to develop him as their QB.  Good for them; I wish them well; Bryce Young seems like a nice person.  But someone must be there to catch the passes he throws and with Adam Thielen still on IR, here are the WRs on the Panthers’ roster:

1. Jalen Coker – – Rookie – – Holy Cross
2. Xavier Legette – – Rookie – – South Carolina
3. Jonathan Mingo – – Second year – – Ole Miss
4. David Moore – – Sixth year – – East Central (OK)

Surely you have seen the miraculous Hail Mary pass that ended the Commanders/Bears game last week.  I have four things to say about that play and that game outcome:

1. The play never should have happened.  The Bears gave away about 15 yards worth of real estate with 6 seconds on the clock on the previous snap allowing the Hail Mary play to be called in the first place.  Instead of guarding the sidelines to keep the clock running, the Bears dropped in coverage.  Bad defensive play calling!
2. The Commanders have had just about everything go right for them this year.  They are a good team and are seemingly in the good graces of the football gods.  Do NOT underestimate the power of such a combination.
3. I believe the Commanders will win the NFC East.
4. If anyone still believes that Jayden Daniels is a “work in progress” they need to rethink that position.

Nick Chubb returned for the Browns and gained 52 yards on 16 carries.  Not eye-popping numbers but given the severity of the knee injury that has kept him off the field for about a year, that was a good showing.  The Ravens lost to the Browns last week and their defensive secondary played terribly.  Far too many Browns’ receivers were running free with 5 yards of separation; in those situations where the defenders were around the ball, they tended to get both hands on it and then drop it.

The Cowboys lost to the Niners.  I think the important message there – – in addition to the fact that the Cowboys’ defense was once again not up to the job – – is that the Cowboys’ offense is almost a singularity.  Dak Prescott targeted CeeCee Lamb 17 times in the game; talk about one-dimensional…

The Eagles’ defense showed up en masse again this week.  In the last three games, the team has given up a total of 36 points and 7 of those came on a Pick Six.  With the loss here, the Bengals are now 3 full games behind the Steelers in the AFC North.

The Packers beat the Jags on a last-second field goal.  The Jags gave up 30 points in the game bringing their season total to 224 points.  Only the Panthers are more generous on defense.

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 27-20.  The game turned in the third quarter when Patrick Mahomes threw an interception that was returned to the Chiefs’ 3-yardline.  The Raiders got nothing – – as in nada – – from that possession.  Later when the Chiefs secured a turnover from Raiders’ QB, Gardner Minshew, they promptly scored a TD.  End of message …

The Falcons beat the Bucs last week.  The two teams had been tied atop the NFC South; now the Falcons are in sole possession of first place there.

The Colts stayed within a field goal of the Texans but in the end, it was the Texans that prevailed.  That outcome gives the Texans a 2-game lead in the Division over the Colts with tiebreaker in hand.  Anthony Richardson suffered 5 sacks in the game.

Tua Tagovailoa returned to action last week after sitting out a month to get over his latest concussion.  With him at the helm, the Dolphins kept it close but lost 28-27 after the Cards held the ball for the last five-and-a-half minutes to set up a chip shot field goal to win as time expired.

The Chargers beat the Saints last week.  That win puts the Chargers above .500 and within striking distance of the Broncos for second place in the AFC West.  That loss – – the sixth in a row for the Saints – – leaves them with a 2-6 record which is only one game better than the woebegone Panthers.

Speaking of the Panthers, they lost to the Broncos by 2 TDs last week and saw their defense get pantsed repeatedly by Bo Nix who just may work out as the Broncos’ starter for a long time to come.

The Pats beat the Jets on a late TD that came on a 4^th and goal situation.  Aaron Rodgers and the Jets got the ball back with less than 30 seconds left in the game and never got close to field goal range on the possession.  Here are two important take-aways from the game:

• Both teams are 2-6.
• Both teams are bad enough that 2-6 is representative of their play in 2024

 

Games this Week:

 

There are two teams with BYE Weeks this week:

1. Niners:  They are in a three-way tie for the lead in the NFC West at 4-4 along with the Cards and the Seahawks.  The best news that the Niners can hope for is that with another week of rehab, Christian McCaffrey might be back and ready to go next week.
2. Steelers:  Mike Tomlin’s charges are a surprising 6-2 at this point in the season; only the most rabid fans would have seen that as a realistic target back around Labor Day.

The Jets beat the Texans last night.  I wondered why the Jets were short favorites at home in the game until I saw/heard that the Texans’ top two WRs were out and two of their offensive linemen were either out or doubtful.  The Jets tried their best to hand the game to the Texans but did not succeed.  The Jets committed a roughing the kicker penalty which is a rare occurrence in the NFL AND committed a roughing the long-snapper penalty on a field goal attempt.  But they won so “Fireman Ed” can strut around and pretend that he had something to do with the victory.

 

Pats at Titans – 3 (38):  When I looked at the slate of games and saw this one at the top of the list, I immediately saw “Dog-Breath potential” in the pairing.  However, that designation will go elsewhere notwithstanding these two bad teams who bring a combined record of 3-12 to the kickoff.  The oddsmakers see a low scoring affair which makes sense since neither team excels on offense and both teams have a respectable defense.  Tune in here if you are a fan of punting; there should be plenty of that.

Chargers at Browns – 1 (42):  Jameis Winston is a better QB than DeShaun Watson in 2024 and somehow it took the Browns’ braintrust 7 games to figure that out.  Oh wait; they didn’t figure that out; Watson suffered a season ending injury forcing them to put Winston on the field.  Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers like to run the football; the Browns’ defense is going to make that difficult.  FYI, the Chargers have only allowed 13 points per game to this point in 2024…

Saints – 7 at Panthers (43.5):  Here you are, ladies and gentlemen; this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Check out the “Tale of the Tape”:

• Saints are 2-6 and Panthers are 1-7.
• Saints have lost 6 games in a row and Panthers have lost 5 games in a row.
• Panthers are 29^th in the NFL in Total Offense
• Saints are 32^nd in the NFL in Total Defense

Fans in New Orleans and Charlotte viewing areas will have to see this contest on their local stations.  For everyone else who watches NFL football this Sunday, this is an Avert Your Eyes Game.

Dolphins at Bills – 6 (49):  The Dolphins have their QB back in action, but it may be too little too late in 2024.  The Dolphins – – and the Jets – – trail the Bills by 3.5 games in the AFC East.

Cowboys at the Falcons – 3 (50.5):  If you like offenses that move up and down the field with only minor resistance from defenses, this is the game for you.  The Falcons give up 348 yards per game and the Cowboys give up 372 yards per game.  There could be moments in this game where viewers may think they are watching an NBA game…  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Broncos at Ravens – 8 (46.5):  The Ravens lost to the Browns last week and that game exposed the inability of the Ravens’ defense to limit the so-called “chunk-plays”. Here is a statistical oddity:

• The Ravens rank first in the NFL in Rush Defense today.
• The Ravens rank last in the NFL in Pass Defense today

Overall, the Ravens rank 25^th in the NFL in Total Defense this morning, only one slot ahead of the Cowboys’ defense which is certifiably mediocre-at-best.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 5-3 riding a stingy defense that is 3^rd in the NFL as of now.

Raiders at Bengals – 7 (46):  Yes, I also considered this game as a “Dog-Breath” candidate for a moment or two, but the presence of talent such as Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase along with the comedic stylings of Gardner Minshew keeps this game from such a lowly status.  The Bengals are 3-5 but their point differential for the year is only minus-8.

(Sun Nite) Colts at Vikings – 5 (46.5):  With the Texans’ loss last night, the Colts can narrow the Texans’ lead in the AFC South to a half-game if they win here.  The Vikes have lost two games in a row; they sit third in the NFC North and one of the two teams ahead of them must win this weekend.  Big game for both teams…

Commanders – 4 at Giants (44):  The Commanders are on a roll; the Giants are one step away from being a hot mess.  However, historically over the past three of four decades, the Washington team plays poorly in Met Life Stadium no matter what they are calling the venue at the time of the kickoff.  I think the Commanders will break that jinx this week; I like the Commanders to win this one comfortably; I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”,

Bears at Cards – 1 (44.5):  The spread here opened the week as “Bears – 2”.  Obviously, there had to be a lot of money on the Cards at that number to flip the favorite.  In fact, there is one Internet sportsbook that has the game with the Cards as 2-point favorites this morning.  The Cards’ record is 4-4 but that has them tied for the lead in the NFC West with the Niners and the Seahawks.  In fact, every team in the NFC West has exactly 4 losses as of today so every game means a lot to all the teams there.

Rams – 1 at Seahawks (48):  Here is another game where the favorite has flipped.  The line opened as “Seahawks – 3” and now the Rams are favored.  Just because this game means a lot to both teams, I thought about it as the Game of the Week for a moment or two but then…

Lions – 3 at Packers (47.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-1; the Packers are right behind them at 6-2.  The winner will lead the division on Monday morning.  Here is a situation that might be interesting if not important:

• Here we are in November, and this will be the first time the Lions have played a game outdoors.

Both defenses here rank in the middle of the pack as of today.  The two offenses rank 5^th and 6^th in the NFL as of today but the Packers’ QB, Jordan Love, has a groin injury that might make the Packers have to play Malik Willis.  Should be a good one; I like the Lions to win and cover here unless there is a “weather event” in Green Bay around game time; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Jags at Eagles – 7.5 (45):  The Eagles trail the Commanders by half a game this morning and I think the Commanders are going to win big on Sunday.  That means the Eagles need to win this game.  The Jags are 2-6 and their defense ranks 29^th in the league in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense.  Jags’ coach, Doug Pederson, led the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over the Pats.  If the Jags get blown out here, the Eagles might be responsible for him becoming unemployed.  As the world turns …

(Mon Nite) Bucs at Chiefs – 9 (46):  The Chiefs are cruising; the Bucs find themselves trailing the Falcons by a game in the NFC South.  For the Chiefs, this is a big game because it continues their 7-game winning streak; no matter the outcome, the Chiefs will still be in first place in the Division on Monday morning.  For the Bucs, this game is a bigger deal because they will know the outcome of the Falcons/Cowboys game on Sunday and this game will either be an opportunity to catch up in the standings or an important game to keep pace with their division rival.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Wisconsin/Iowa OVER 40
• Cowboys Falcons OVER 50.2
• Commanders – 4 over Giants
• Lions – 3 over Packers

And here are three Money Line Parlays just for fun:

• Texas A&M @ minus-145
• Georgia @ minus-600     Bet $100 to win $98.

 

• Nebraska @ minus-250
• Navy @ minus-420
• Indiana @ minus-300     Bet $100 to win $131

 

• Commanders @ minus-200
• Eagles @ minus-300     Bet $100 to win $100

Finally, these words from Vince Lombardi:

“I firmly believe that any man’s finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle – victorious.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

No.  I shall not do a celebratory rant about Halloween today wherein I label various sports figures as ghouls or goblins or some other such nonsense.  There are far more interesting – – nay even more important – – things to rant about today.  For instance, the Dodgers won the World Series in 5 games winning last night by a score of 7-6.  The Yankees led 5-0 until a disastrous fifth inning put the Dodgers back in the game; here is how it unfolded:

• Single
• Yankees’ error
• Yankees’ error (bases loaded)
• Strike out
• Strike out (things are looking up for the Yankees here)
• Grounder to first but pitcher does not cover the bag.  One run in.
• Double scoring 2 runs
• Double scoring 2 more runs (score is now tied at 5-5).

Getting three outs in an inning is a challenge; getting six outs is asking far more from a defensive team than is reasonable.  Congratulations to the Dodgers; they outplayed the Yankees significantly in the World Series; they earned their status as World Champs.

Moving on …  One of the things I do on a random basis is to check on the box scores for various teams/players to see if there is anything interesting in “the numbers”.  I know that the NBA season is only about a week old, but there is something to keep an eye on regarding the Memphis Grizzlies and their rookie center Zach Edey.  In his first NBA game about a week ago, Edey fouled out (6 fouls) after playing all of 14 minutes and 44 seconds of action.  If you run the numbers, he committed a foul every 90 seconds of playing time while he was on the court.  If I may be so bold, let me assert that such performance is not sustainable in the NBA …

So, of course I had to see if that sort of bed-wetting was going to be the expectation for Zach Edey in the NBA.  Using admittedly small samples for both pro and con, the trend seems to be an improving one.

• In his next three games, Edey committed 9 personal fouls in 49 minutes of “floor time”.
• That devolves to one foul every 5.9 minutes which is significantly better than in the first game of his career.
• Nevertheless, that is not an acceptable performance level for NBA play.

In 4 games in the 2024/25 NBA regular season, Edey is averaging 10.2 points per game and 5 rebounds per game.  Those numbers for a rookie are reasonable – – so long as the fouling proclivity is not part of the evaluation.

Continuing on with comments on the NBA, there is an early season trend that needs to reverse itself as the season unfolds.  Remember, NBA basketball is a television series that provides entertainment to the people who watch it.  So, with that front and center in your mind, consider these two stats:

1. The Boston Celtics average more than 50 three-point shot attempts per game so far this year.  That is more than one long-range shot per minute of play.
2. Two other NBA teams average more than 40 three-point shot attempts per game so far this year.

The three-point shooting competition during All-Star week is interesting, but it is not compelling TV from October through April which is the time span of the NBA regular season.

Switching gears and sports …  The Indy Colts announced that they will bench QB Anthony Richardson and start Joe Flacco this week against the Vikes.  Richardson has been mediocre at best when he was on the field for the Colts this year and one of his actions last week might have been a superbly bad look for him and his career.  At one point in last week’s loss to the Texans, Richardson came to the sidelines to seek a substitution because he said he was “tired”.  Really?  That is your explanation for asking to be subbed for?  Let me say carefully here that a QB is the last team member who should show up “tired” in a huddle; the QB may indeed have to spend more mental activity on executing his play responsibilities but on the physical side, the QB has the cushiest job in the stadium.  Hell, the beer vendors walking up and down the stadium steps could cry “tired” as easily as an NFL QB.

When Anthony Richardson came out of Florida in the NFL Draft, I said then that he was a prospect but that his passing accuracy and his passing “touch” left a lot to be desired and that he would need tutoring at the NFL level.  Yes, Anthony Richardson has had some injury issues, and those issues have limited his time on the field.  Nevertheless, Anthony Richardson has been a part of the NFL for 2 years now and these stat lines are well below expectation for a guy taken with the overall #4 pick in the Daft:

• Oct 20, 2024 vs Miami:  10 of 24 for 129 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs
• Oct 27, 2024 at Houston:  10 of 32 for 175 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

            In his last two starts, Richardson has completed 35.7% of his pass attempts and has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass attempt.   Taken as an overview, this benching is a bad sign for Richardson as a young NFL QB who was taken with the hope he would be the “face of the franchise” for a decade or so.

The Colts are not turning the reins of the offense over to a similarly young QB who might become the new face of the franchise.  Rather they are giving the ball to Joe Flacco.  Whenever the Colts’ braintrust convenes to ponder the “five-year plan” for the franchise, I suspect that Joe Flacco as the QB is not a foundation piece of such a plan.  The Colts in 2024 are in contention for a wild-card entry to the playoffs in January; the team is making this change because they believe it gives the Colts a better chance to make the playoffs this year.  To me, that means that Anthony Richardson is unlikely to be part of the team 5 years from now – – or even 3 years from now.  This move by the Colts’ coaching staff is significant.

The Colts are facing a tough schedule between now and November 24:

• At Vikes – – underdogs
• Vs. Bills – – will be underdogs
• At Jets – – will probably be a short favorite
• Vs. Lions – – will be underdogs

The good news for the Colts is what the schedulers did for them after Thanksgiving:

• At Pats – – should be the favorite even on the road
• At Broncos – – should be a short underdog
• Vs. Titans – – should be the favorite
• At Giants – – should be the favorite even on the road
• Vs. Jags – – should be the favorite.

The Colts are 4-4 this morning.  Looking at that schedule, a final record of 9-8 looks to be easily within reach.  With another year of “Flacco-magic” as a substitute QB, they could wind up 10-7 and that should get the Colts into the playoffs.  And if that happens, it will be another nail in Anthony Richardson’s NFL coffin.

Finally, Alexander Pope said:

“To err is human; to forgive is divine.”

I wonder if Yankee fans will show any tendencies toward divinity over the next few days…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………