Author: Jack

Since there will be no Football Fridays for the next two weeks, let me take a moment today to review football stuff from last weekend.  I’ll start in college football…

The Linfield College Wildcats won their first-round game in the Division III college football playoffs beating Pomona-Pitzer 51-24.  This week the Wildcats welcome Bethel to McMinnville, OR for a “Sweet-16 level” game.  Go Wildcats!

Vandy beat Florida 31-24.  Maybe Vandy’s upset of Kentucky two weeks ago was not as big a surprise as it seemed at the time.  Vandy needs one more win to get to a bowl game – – but that last game is against Tennessee and the Vols should be up for that game because…

Tennessee lost badly to a mediocre South Carolina team 63-38.  Tennessee had been ranked #6 in the nation going into that game.  No longer…

Arkansas beat Ole Miss 42-27.  Ole Miss will get a bowl bid – – but the quality of the bid they will get went down as of the conclusion of that game.

Michigan beat Illinois 19-17.  This was a lot closer than the oddsmakers thought it would be.  Illinois led 17-10 at the start of the 4^th quarter but could not hold on for an upset win.

TCU beat Baylor 29-28.  TCU remains undefeated and in the conversation as a CFP participant.  This was not a pretty win for the Horned Frogs – – but a win is a win.

K-State beat W. Virginia 48-31 to maintain its shot at playing TCU in the big-12 Championship Game.  There was an oddity in this game:

• K-State led 28-19 at the end of the first quarter.

USC beat UCLA 48-45 in a game devoid of defense.  The Trojans are now ranked #5 in the country.

Oregon beat Utah 20-17 ending any hopes the Utes may have had for competing in the CFP.

Texas A&M managed to beat UMass 20-3 which is an embarrassingly close game for the Aggies.  So, here is a quick quiz:

• What was the more disastrous investment?
  • Putting your money in crypto on FTX – – or – –
  • Hiring Jimbo Fisher for $105M?

Moving on to some quick looks at NFL results …

The Cowboys beat the Vikes 40-3.  What to make of that game?  My thought is that the Vikes are not that bad, and the Cowboys are not that good.  Both teams will make the NFC Playoffs and if they meet again the game will not be decided by more than 5 TDs.

The Pats beat the Jets 10-3; the game was decided on an 84-yard punt return with 5 seconds left in the game.  Up to that point this game was nothing more than ugly.  Consider just a couple stats from that game:

• 11 “drives” started by both teams ended up as three-and-out
• 19 total first downs in the game – – both teams combined
• 10 QB sacks recorded in the game

Just an observation but Zach Wilson throws a lot of passes off his back foot – even when he does not have to as a way to avoid being hit in the throwing process.  Yes, I know that Aaron Rodgers does this, and Patrick Mahomes does this too – – but the much more effective way to throw a football for most human beings is to step into the throw and not to throw off the back foot.  Perhaps someone might want to work with Wilson on those mechanics?

The Eagles rallied in the 4^th quarter to beat the Colts 17-16.  It was the defense that won this game for the Eagles keeping it close until the offense decided to wake up in the final 10 minutes of the game.

The Commanders beat the Texans 23-10.  As the teams left the field at halftime, the Texans Total Offense for the first half of the game was 5 yards – – or 180 inches.

I said last week that I thought the Giants were shoo-ins for the playoffs unless they got hit with a rash of injuries.  Maybe I jinxed the Giants.  Last week, they lost to the Lions 31-18 and lost 6 players during the game to injuries – – on top of having 4 other starters out for the game.

The Ravens beat the Panthers 13-3 scoring late in the game to provide the margin of victory.  Actually, Baker Mayfield threw 2 INTs in the 4^th quarter of the game to assure defeat for the Panthers.

The Chiefs rallied in the final two minutes to score a TD and beat the Chargers 30-27.  As usual, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert put on an entertaining show for fans.

The Niners dominated the Cards in Mexico City 38-10 – – and it was not that close.  Right now, I think the Niners are playing the best football in the NFC.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close with this remark by Fred Allen:

“Hollywood is a place where people from Iowa mistake each other for movie stars.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

One of the oldest con games around is the old “bait and switch”.  Today an example of that con is on display at the World Cup games in Qatar.  After pretending that fans who came to Qatar to see the tournament games would be allowed to drink beer under controlled circumstances even though public consumption of alcohol is illegal in Qatar, the government announced late last week that there will be no beer sales or beer drinking in public for the games.  Many commentators have labeled this an “abrupt about face” by the Qatari officials; please, call it what it is, it is bait and switch.

The timing of the announcement was perfect; it became known just as lots of fans traveling to see the games were in the boarding process for their flights to Doha.  It seems to me this was not “accidental” or “coincidental”.

FIFA has over the last couple of decades done some virtue-signaling expressly trying to hold the World Cup Tournament in “less developed places” such as South Africa (Who can ever forget the vuvuzelas?) and now in a fabulously wealthy – but tiny – country like Qatar.  [Aside:  Not to worry, palms were greased to get those Tournaments to those virtuous sites.]  But this set of events might make the FIFA folks think twice about “doing business” with a theocratic state.  According to reports, Budweiser is a FIFA sponsor and coughs up $75M per year for that sponsorship opportunity.  The corporate overlords for Budweiser cannot be happy with this turn of events.

Two games have happened in the Tournament as of this morning.  Ecuador beat Qatar 2-0 in the opening game and England beat Iran 3-0 in Group B competition.  Group B is where the US Men’s Team will be competing.

Switching gears …  The Toronto Argonauts beat the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 24-23 in the CFL Grey Cup game last evening.  The game was held in Regina, Saskatchewan at the home field of the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  The Blue Bombers had won the last two Grey Cup championships and were favored in this game.  The Argonauts were down 23-14 in the fourth quarter and rallied to take the lead with less than 5 minutes to play.  The Blue Bombers got within field goal range but had the field goal attempt to win the game blocked with under a minute left on the clock.

My TV remote got a workout last night going back and forth between the Grey Cup game and the Bengals/Steelers game first and then for the early part of the Chiefs/Chargers game.  CFL games are quite different from NFL games or even college football games.  It takes a moment for me to adjust my thinking about the game and the strategic decisions within the game, but once I do, I find CFL games to be quite entertaining.

Next up …  Perhaps you have followed to some degree the collapse of FTX – the cryptocurrency trading exchange.  One bit of fallout for the sports world – – other than the decline of cryptocurrency values and the effect that has had on athletes who chose to take all or part of their contract money in cryptocurrency – – is that the folks in Miami have a basketball arena named by FTX.  The agreement between FTX and Miami began in the Spring of 2021 and was supposed to run for 19 years at a cost to FTX of $135M.  Well, FTX is not in any position to live up to that agreement now and the folks in Miami are out and about seeking a new naming rights sponsor for the venue where the Miami Heat play their home games.

Just a guess, but I don’t think the Miami folks will be contacting anyone from Enron about this sponsorship opportunity…

Moving on …  Subsequent to the World Series, MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred, was asked about the status of two franchises with attendance issues – – the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A’s.  Manfred was optimistic about the Rays being able to stay in the Tampa area but was less sanguine about the situation in Oakland.  The resolution of the issues in these two cities is important for MLB and its fans because Manfred said that baseball would look to expand and add two new teams once the stadium issues in Tampa and in Oakland are resolved.  Here is what the Commish had to say about the two situations:

“I’ve got a lot of faith in Stu Sternberg (owner of the Tampa Bay Rays). I think they will find a place to get a ballpark built. I think baseball can thrive in Tampa.”

And …

“I think the mayor in Oakland has made a huge effort to try to get it done in Oakland; it just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.”

[Aside:  The Oakland mayor is leaving office this year so any negotiations that may have been ongoing will surely need to take a moment to reset starting next year.]

Manfred also said that the A’s cannot continue to play in whatever the Oakland Coliseum calls itself this month.  The lease on that stadium by the A’s runs through the end of 2024.  It seems clear to me that there will not be a new stadium ready for business in the Spring of 2025 since there is not deal in place now that will allow for groundbreaking in the next 48-72 hours.  I t will be interesting to see how the focus of negotiations might change as the end of the current lease gets closer and closer.

Regarding the situation in Tampa, I wonder why the Commissioner is as optimistic as he seems to be.  The idea of putting a new stadium in “downtown Tampa” was put to rest; so, it would seem as if there has been no real progress in that part of the world.  Did Manfred just tip his hand…?

Finally, Dwight Perry will retire in two weeks.  He announced that in his column, Sideline Chatter, in the Seattle Times last weekend.  Currently, that column runs every Sunday in the paper – – but there were times when it ran 5 days a week.  I wonder if the column has become an institution in the Seattle area such that it needs to be carried on.  If that turns out to be the case, let me say before the fact that Dwight Perry will be a tough act to follow.  Here is his “retirement announcement”:

“I will retire Dec. 3 after 23½ years at The Seattle Times and 51-plus in the newspaper industry, so my final column will appear Sunday, Dec. 4.

“Now we rejoin Sideline Chatter, already in progress …”

Bonne chance, Dwight Perry…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I feel as if Football Friday went through a time warp back to the 1920s.  No, I have not been visited by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, but check the analogy here:

• 1920s:  WW I just ended; there was a “return to normalcy” per President Harding; and then the Great Depression and WW II followed.
• Football Fridays:  Disrupted last week to yield a Football Friday-Lite; this week is going to be a normal Football Friday;  there will be no Football Friday at all next week and if there is one on December 2, it will be another “Lite one”.

So, let me begin as usual with a review of last week’s Six-Pack and Money Line Parlays:

College = 2-1-0                                                          Season Total = 19-10-0

NFL = 0-3-0                                                                Season Total = 14-17-3

Money Line Parlays = 1-3                                         Season Total = 6-17

Profit/Loss = +$484                                                   Season Profit = $106

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            The Linfield College Wildcats beat Lewis and Clark 70-7 to wrap up a 9-0 regular season.  Division III college football has a bracketed tournament to determine its national champion; normally, the Northwest Conference champion gets an invite to that event and with a 9-0 record, I expected Linfield to participate.  Indeed, this week Linfield will host Pomona-Pitzer in a first-round game of a 32-team bracketed field.  The Sage Hens bring an 8-2 record to this game.  Interestingly, the two losses on their schedule are both against teams that Linfield defeated earlier this season.  Go Wildcats!

The Big Ten West appeared to belong to Illinois 2 weeks ago as the Illini had a comfortable lead in the division with a winnable schedule ahead of them. However, after following up a miserable loss to Michigan State two weeks ago with a lackluster performance and another loss to Purdue last week, the race in the Big 10 West is now wide open.

Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa are currently tied in the Big Ten West standings with a 4-3 conference record. The Illini play No. 3 Michigan this week and they are a 17.5-point underdog; so, they are likely to fall out of the race. That situation elevates the importance of the Iowa/Purdue game upcoming in Week 12. And Minnesota is hanging in there to see if anyone falters so that they might swoop in and pick up the shards…

I want to take a minute this week to talk about three college coaches in their first year on their current job who have produced significant turnaround results.  I am sure there are others out there who have done similarly laudatory work but these three are the ones that came to my mind as I was putting this stuff together.  Listed alphabetically:

1. Kalen DeBoer – Washington:  He spent 5 seasons as the coach at the University of Sioux Falls – – an NAIA school.  In those 5 seasons he won 3 NAIA National Championships and lost in the Championship Game one other time.  After time as an assistant coach in various places, he took over Fresno State in 2020 and was hired by Washington last year after the Huskies went 4-8 in 2021.  As of this morning DeBoer’s Huskies have an 8-2 record and last week they upset Oregon which had been ranked #6 in the country at the time.
2. Sonny Dykes – TCU:  He came to TCU from nearby rival SMU, and he has the so far undefeated Horned Frogs ranked in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings as of this morning.  Hard to find a lot of fault there…
3. Jim Mora – UConn:  The Huskies had been a doormat – and a perennial contender for my imaginary SHOE Tournament – for years.  When Mora took the job, it seemed like such a huge step down for him that I wondered if he was serious.  A coaching career arc that goes from the Atlanta Falcons to the Seattle Seahawks to UCLA to UConn is more than a bit unusual.  He took over a program that went 10-50 in the last 5 years and now has the Huskies bowl-eligible before Thanksgiving.

In Big-10 action last week …

Michigan 34  Nebraska 3:   This game was never in doubt; the Wolverines almost tripled the Huskers in total offense 411 yards to 146 yards.  Brad Dickson had this Tweet as the kickoff approached:

“Michigan is favored by 31 points over the Huskers. Right now, the team feels like a Democrat running for office in Nebraska.”

Purdue 31  Illinois 24:  As noted above, the Big 10 West race is a scramble and Illinois is no longer the big dog there.  Illinois has a date with Michigan this week where they are 17.5-point underdogs.

Minnesota 31  Northwestern 3:  The Gophers are still in the race for the Big 10 West.  Like Illinois, Iowa and Purdue, the Gophers have 3 conference losses.  Iowa and Purdue play each other soon, Illinois must deal with Michigan this week.  Here is the rest of the Minnesota schedule:

• Vs. Iowa this week – – huge game for both teams
• At Wisconsin next week

Iowa 24  Wisconsin 10:  This victory means that Iowa remains in the Big 10 West picture despite miserable offensive stats for the Hawkeyes:

• Total Offense = 251.1 yards per game – – ranked 130^th in the country
• Scoring Offense = 17.9 points per game – – ranked 124^th in the country

Ohio St. 56  Indiana 14:  It was indeed that ugly; the Buckeyes generated 662 yards on offense compared to 269 for the Hoosiers.  CJ Stroud threw 5 TD passes in the game.  By the way, Indiana has now lost to Penn St and Ohio St in consecutive weekends by the combined score of 101-28.  The Hoosiers started the season with three straight wins; now their record is 3-7 …

Penn St. 30  Maryland 0:  The Penn St. defense had its way with the Terps in this one:

• Maryland Total Offense = 134 yards
• Maryland Rushing Offense = 60 yards on 38 carries
• Maryland First Downs = 11
• Maryland Punts = 9

Moving on to SEC games…

Georgia 45  Mississippi St. 19:  Georgia only led 17-12 at the half, but the second half was dominated by the Georgia defense.  This win puts Georgia in the SEC Championship Game against LSU.

Auburn 13  Texas A&M 10:  I suggested this game could be called the Agony Bowl last week and it seems to have lived down to that label.  If you ever wanted proof that pre-season polls are nothing more than wild guesses, remember that the Aggies were ranked #6 in the country back in August.  They are now #7 – – in the SEC West.  With this loss, the Aggies will not be bowl eligible and will have a losing record for the 2022 season.

Alabama 30  Ole Miss 24:  The Rebels ran out to a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter and led 17-14 at halftime.  The Tide rallied in the third quarter and the score was tied at 24 as the fourth quarter began.  Then the Alabama defense pitched a shutout in the 4^th quarter; here are the results of the 3 possessions for Ole Miss in the 4^th quarter:

• 3 plays  minus-4 yards  1:47 time of possession  PUNT
• 8 plays  36 yards  1:47 time of possession  TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 8 plays  55 yards  1:37 time of possession  TURNOVER ON DOWNS

LSU 13  Arkansas 10:  The win guarantees LSU the SEC West slot in the SEC Championship Game.  This was a defensive struggle from kickoff to final gun.  Neither team generated 300 yards on offense; there were a total of 13 punts in the game.  LSU freshman LB, Harold Perkins, Jr. had 4 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in the game.

Tennessee 66  Missouri 24:  That is quite a reversal of form for the Vols after scoring one meaningless TD two weeks ago against Georgia.

Vandy 24  Kentucky 21:  The Commodores came to the game having lost their last 26 consecutive conference games; that losing streak is over.  Trailing 21-17, Vandy went on a fourth quarter offensive drive that covered 80 yards – – including two fourth-down conversions – – and scored with about 30 seconds left in the game on a short pass.  For the record, Kentucky was a 17.5-point favorite in the game.

Let me interject something here about Vandy football in the SEC.  In general, Vandy is over-matched in the SEC.  Since 2000, the Commodores have posted exactly 3 winning seasons; since joining the SEC in 1933, Vandy has never had double-digit wins in a given season.  Prior to their win over Kentucky last week, their 3 wins this year had been against Hawaii, Elon and Northern Illinois.  In two games against Alabama and Georgia this year, Vandy has been outscored by a combined 110-3.  Now lest you leap to the conclusion that Vandy is the worst SEC team ever, let me lay some history on you:

• Sewanee: The University of the South  was a charter member of the SEC when it formed in 1932.  The Sewanee Tigers were in the SEC for 8 seasons and never won a single football game against an SEC opponent.
• Against SEC opponents, Sewanee was shut out 26 times.
• By comparison, Vanderbilt looks like a powerhouse…

Now on the results from the Big-12 …

K-State 31  Baylor 3:  The Wildcats remain in the Big-12 Championship Game picture, but this loss likely eliminates Baylor for any chance to get there.

TCU 17  Texas 10:  Ignoring the fact that TCU was a 7.5-point underdog in the game, the Horned Frogs remain undefeated for 2022 and this victory guarantees them a place in the Big-12 Championship Game.  Credit the TCU defense here; the only Texas TD came on a scoop and score by the Longhorns’ defense.  Consider this pair of stats for the game:

• Texas Rushing Offense = 28 yards on 22 carries
• Texas RB, Bijan Robinson, Rushing Offense = 29 yards on 12 carries

TCU defense held Texas to 1 of 13 on third-down conversions.

West Virginia 23  Oklahoma 20:  This is only the second conference win for W Va.  The loss sets Oklahoma’s record at 5-5 for the season and all 5 losses for the sooners have been in conference.  The Mountaineers need to win both remaining games to be bowl eligible; the remaining opponents are K-State and Oklahoma St.  The Sooners need to find a win in their last two games for bowl eligibility.  Their opponents will be Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech.

Pitt 37  Virginia 7:  The score was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter and the way that happened was a bit strange.

• Pitt scored on a Pick-Six on the first play of the game. 
• Pitt scored on a Pick-Six on the next Virginia possession
• Pitt added 2 offensive TDs on the next possessions of the quarter to lead 28-0.

Some ACC results from last week …

BC 21  NC St. 20:  NC State had won 17 straight home games and was an 18-point favorite at kickoff.  One interesting stat from the game concerning BC – – the winner here:

• Net Yards Rushing = minus-1 yard on 22 rushing attempts

UNC 36  Wake Forest 34:  The teams combined to produce 1079 yards of offense in the game – – 786 of those yards coming via the passing games.  This win puts UNC in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St.  38  Syracuse 3:  That is 4 losses in a row for the Orange after a 6-0 start to the season.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles’ offense has been on fire the last two weeks – – they beat Miami by 42 points two weeks ago – – and the Seminoles have quietly accumulated a 7-3 record for the year.

And out west in the PAC-12 …

Washington 37 Oregon 34:  Oregon might still make it to the PAC-12 Championship Game but with its second loss of the year, the Ducks can kiss any CFP participation goodbye.  Oregon had a slight advantage on the stat sheet, but it was the Oregon defense that was the weak link here allowing the Huskies to gain 552 yards on offense for the day.  By the way, Oregon was a 13-point favorite at kickoff time.

Utah 42  Stanford 7:  The Utes remain in good position to be part of the PAC-12 Championship Game but their two losses so far in 2022 makes it highly unlikely that they will be part of the CFP.

Arizona 34  UCLA 28:  This is the second loss of the year for the Bruins, and it surely hurts their chances for a chance in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  Until last week, the Bruins had wins over Utah and Washington; their only blemish was a loss to Oregon.  Were they looking past a mediocre Arizona team to a game against USC?

USC 55  Colorado 17:  This was a walkover for USC even though Colorado led 3-2 at the end of the first quarter.  Some bad news for Trojan fans is that RB Travis Dye suffered an injury that will keep him out for the rest of the season – – even if the season extends into January 2023.

And in random games of interest from last week …

UConn 36  Liberty 33:  This was a big let-down game for Liberty and the win makes UConn bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015.  This represents a major turnaround accomplishment for Huskies’ coach Jim Mora in his first year at UConn (see above).

Notre Dame 35  Navy 32:  Navy outgained Notre Dame on offense by 33 yards for the day and held the Irish to only 68 yards rushing.  The Irish led 35-13 in the second half and held on for the narrow win here.

Western Kentucky 45  Rice 10:  Rice still needs another win to be bowl eligible.  This game was never close.

Arkansas St. 35  UMass 33:  Two SHOE Tournament candidates faced off here …

 

The SHOE Teams:

 

Let me pose a conundrum here.  Florida International is 4-6 this year.  Normally teams with 4 wins are easily eliminated from consideration for my SHOE Tournament.  But FIU is a special case.  Consider:

• One of the four wins was in OT against a Division 1-A opponent (Bryant)
• FIU has lost 73-0 to W. Kentucky, 52-14 to North Texas, 41-12 to Texas St. and 52-7 against Florida Atlantic.

I am going to list them as “on the radar” this week just because those losses are so bad.

• Akron  1-9
• Colorado  1-9
• Colorado St.  2-8
• Florida International  4-6
• Hawaii  2-9
• Indiana  3-7
• New Mexico  2-8
• Northwestern  1-9
• UMass  1-9
• UNC-Charlotte  2-9
• USF  1-9
• Va Tech  2-8

And before I leave the college commentary for the week, here are the three teams contending for the Brothel Defense Award for 2022:

• USF gives up 40.0 points per game
• UNC-Charlotte gives up 41.1 points per game
• Colorado gives up 41.7 points per game

It looks as if that “race to the bottom” will go down to the wire.  Also please note that the 3 teams in contention here are all on the SHOE Tournament watch-list…

 

College Football Games of Interest This Week:

 

K-State – 7.5 at W. Virginia (54.5):  K-State needs a win to stay in line for a shot at TCU in the Big-12 Championship Game; W. Virginia needs a win to keep alive the possibility of a bowl game appearance this year.  An important game…

NC St. at Louisville – 4 (45):  Both teams are wildly inconsistent this year.  Betting on this game is like playing the lottery…

Va Tech at Liberty – 10 (47):  My guess is that Liberty coach, Hugh Freeze, had some candid remarks to make to the team after they lost to UConn last week as 2 TD favorites.

Miami at Clemson – 18 (48):  Earlier in the season, some were touting this game as a confrontation between “the establishment” (Clemson) and the “resurrected powerhouse” (Miami).  However, the Hurricanes show up here with a 5-5 record hoping to find one more win so they can go to a bowl game.

Ohio St. – 27 at Maryland (62.5):  About once a year, the Terps play a game about a mile over their heads and win a game no one thought they had a shot at winning – – or maybe losing such a game by a late field goal.  Is this that game?

Illinois at Michigan – 17.5 (41):  Both teams need this win; one team is a lot better than the other one…

Northwestern at Purdue – 18 (44):  The Boilermakers cannot afford a loss given the state of events in the Big-10 West; Northwestern has lost 9 games in a row after winning the opening game against Nebraska in Dublin Ireland.

Georgia – 22 at Kentucky (48.5):  Maybe Kentucky was looking ahead to this game as it lost to Vandy last week?

UConn at Army – 10 (44):  It will be interesting to see if UConn can deal with the Army triple option offense…

Texas – 10 at Kansas (63.5):  Both teams lost last week; both teams are already bowl eligible; both teams are eliminated from the Big-12 Championship Game.  Hi ho…

Iowa at Minnesota – 3 (31.5):  That Total Line is not a typo; it opened the week at 33 points and has slowly eased on down the line.  If you still like the UNDER, you can still find this at 32 points at some Internet sports books.  This is a Big Game in the Big-10 West and because of the implications for the winner and loser here, this is my College Game of the Week.  I know Minnesota has won 3 in a row – – but those three opponents were Rutgers, Nebraska and Northwestern.  Iowa wins by shutting down opposing offenses and Minnesota’s offense is nothing special to begin with.  I think Iowa is the better team so getting points with the better team sounds like a good idea; I’ll take the Hawkeyes plus the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

UMass at Texas A&M – 33.5 (47.5):  I have two comments about this game and this spread:

1. The Aggies have never scored more than 28 points in any game this season and they are 33.5-point favorites here.  What does that tell you about how the oddsmakers think of the UMass defense?
2. I read that Jimbo Fisher’s buyout clause for this year is $85M.  If the Aggies lose to this opponent at home, I think some of the big-money-boys there will start passing the hat…

By the way, UMass is +7500 on the Money Line.

I fully expect the Aggies to break their 6-game losing streak here but there is no way I would wager even a farthing on the game…

BC at Notre Dame – 20.5 (42.5):  The Total Line opened at 46.5 points and has been dropping steadily all week.  This is another interesting spread in that Notre dame only scores 29.7 points per game.

Stanford at Cal – 4.5 (47.5):  This is a huge rivalry game…

USC – 2.5 at UCLA (76.5):  the Trojans need the win to stay on track for the PAC-12 Championship Game and it would love to win big to impress the CFP Selectors.

Utah – 2 at Oregon (60):  The other important PAC-12 game this week.  One of these teams will have a third loss for the season on Saturday night…

TCU – 2.5 at Baylor (56.5):  TCU is locked into the Big-12 Championship Game and would be in the CFP bracket if it were announced today.  They will drop out of the Top-4 with a loss here and will probably not get back in between now and the announcement of the 4 teams in the CFP field.  Big game for the Horned Frogs…

Ole Miss – 2.5 at Arkansas (64):  The Total Line here opened at 59 points and has been monotonically increasing as the week went on.  The Razorbacks need a win to get to bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is already bowl-eligible and is looking to get a quality invitation – – not a pre-Christmas game.  Ole Miss can and will run the football here because Arkansas’ run defense gives up 146.3 yards per game (ranked 65^th in the country).  I like Ole Miss to win and cover even on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Oklahoma St. at Oklahoma – 7.5 (66):  They call this rivalry game, “Bedlam”.  The Cowboys can still maneuver themselves into the Big-12 Championship Game, but a loss here will likely doom those chances.  The Sooners have not been impressive at all this year; that hook on top of a full TD is enticing; I’ll take the Cowboys with the points; put it in the Six-Pack.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

D.C. Attorney General, Karl Racine, filed a lawsuit against the NFL, the Washington Commanders, Daniel Snyder and Roger Goodell alleging they colluded to deceive residents and fans about an NFL probe into the team’s toxic workplace culture and claims of sexual misconduct.  While I hope this matter proceeds because it will shed light on all the findings in the toxic workplace investigation and possibly on those hundreds of thousands of emails involving former team President, Bruce Allen, I have to say that it is a bit of stretch for me to see this as a violation of a consumer protection law.  But good luck to AG, Racine here; nothing ventured; nothing gained – – or lost.

I want to comment on two specific teams here this week.  I’ll start with a team that is surprisingly good this year and looks as if it is playoff bound; I speak of the NY Giants.  The Giants are 7-2 with a point differential of only 14 points.  Their wins have not been artistic in any sense, but their record has them in second place in the NFC East one game behind the Eagles and one game ahead of the Cowboys.  It looks as if 10 wins will assure an NFC team of a playoff slot and all the Giants need to do is to win 3 of their final 8 games to get to 10 wins.

Here is their remaining schedule:

• Vs. Lions (this week)
• At Cowboys (Thanksgiving)
• Vs Commanders
• Vs. Eagles
• At Commanders
• At Vikes
• Vs Colts
• At Eagles

I do not have a problem seeing 3 wins on that menu unless a large number of debilitating injuries afflict the Giants.

The other team I want to look at is having a surprisingly bad season; they are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs just yet but if those playoff chances were in human form, they would be in an ICU somewhere.  I speak of the Las Vegas Raiders.  Just as the Giants find ways to win close games despite a minuscule point differential, the Raiders never seem to win close games.  The Raiders are 2-7 in 2022 and their point differential is only minus-23 points.  But look at this another way and focus on the last 3 games for the Raiders:

• They were shut out by the Saints
• Then they lost to the Jags after leading by 17 points in the game
• Last week they lost to the Colts in Jeff Saturday’s first game ever as a head coach.

That is not a good trend line by any definition of “good” …

The Raiders made the playoffs in 2021 and added two players that appeared to be quality additions in Chandler Jones and Davante Adams.  I did not think that was sufficient for the Raiders to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West, but I thought they would be right in the middle of the wild card chase – – and they are not.  Chandler Jones has been almost invisible this year; Adams has lived up to his billing, but he cannot do it alone.

The Raiders’ defense has been miserable; it has yet to hold an opponent under 20 points for a game.  There are rumors of wholesale changes coming to the Raiders’ roster come the offseason including perhaps trading/releasing Derek Carr.  Mark Davis has said that first year head coach Josh McDaniels will be back next year; the jury is still out on McDaniels’ capabilities as an NFL head coach notwithstanding his successes as an offensive coordinator.  In this job plus his previous time as the head coach in Denver, McDaniels‘record is a less-than-stellar 13-24.

I want to throw something out there for cogitation:

• Perhaps it is going to take a cadre of players who are super-dedicated to their craft and their performance to survive in Las Vegas where there are outside activities/distractions that are significantly greater than in most other NFL cities.

The temptations present in “Sin City” may be one part of the deteriorated state of the Raiders in 2022.  Just a thought…  As Mae West said about temptations:

“When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I haven’t tried before.”

Bucs 21  Seahawks 16:  The Bucs improve their record to 5-5 and lead the feeble NFC South by a full game.  That win snapped the Seahawks 4-game win streak and puts the Seahawks in a virtual tie with the Niners in the NFC West – – both teams have 4 losses.  The Seahawks preferred way to play is to run the football and control the clock.  That didn’t work:

• Bucs Time of Possession = 36:55   Seahawks Time of Possession = 23:05
• Seahawks Rushing Offense = 39 yards on 22 attempts

Another big difference here was the Bucs converting on 10 of 15 third down tries while the Seahawks were 1 for 9 in those situations.  And yet, this was a one-score game…

Tom Brady now holds another “NFL Record”; he has the most passing yards in games outside the US with 1210 yards in 4 games.  So, whose record did he break last week?  That would be – – wait for it – – Blake Bortles.

Dolphins 39  Browns 17:  Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins are alone in first place in the AFC East.  This was simply an old fashioned beatdown.  The Browns now have 6 losses and still have the Bills and the Bucs to play before Deshaun Watson becomes eligible to play.

Titans 17  Broncos 10:  The Broncos led 10-0 with 2 minutes to play in the first half but their offense in the second half was “unproductive” in its 6 possessions:

• 3 plays  5 yards  PUNT
• 6 plays  32 yards  PUNT
• 9 plays  14 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  1 yard  PUNT
• 3 plays  4 yards  PUNT
• 10 plays  50 yards  INTERCEPTION

The Titans have a 2-game lead in the loss column over the Colts in the AFC South.

Lions 31  Bears 30:  The Chicago Bears are going through Groundhog Day – – the movie.  For the third week in a row, the Bears have scored 29 points or more – – AND they have lost all three games.  For the record, the Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games despite scoring 29 points or more in each game. In this one, the Bears dominated the stat sheet and led by 14 points at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Then they let the Lions – – I said the Detroit Lions!  – – score 3 TDs in the 4^th quarter and the Bears missed an extra point to assure the defeat.  The win for the Lions moves them out of the basement in the NFC North by half-a-game.  Yuck!

Giants 24  Texans 16:  Saquon Barkley was the story of this game carrying the ball 35 times for 152 yards and a TD.  The Giants are now in sole possession of second place in the NFC East.  The Texans have some good young talent, and they play hard; maybe in a year or two, they will be contenders in the AFC South…?

Chiefs 27  Jags 17:  It was just a typical day at the office for Patrick Mahomes:

• 26 of 35 for 331 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT

The Chiefs ran off to a 20-0 lead in the first half and never looked back.

Vikes 33  Bills 30 (OT):  This was the “early game” selected for my viewing area and it was a great choice.  There were huge momentum swings in the game; both QBs were hot and cold in the game; Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson both made highlight reel catches; and the game went to OT for a decision.  The loss drops the Bills a half-game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East.   The Bills played QB Josh Allen last week despite an elbow injury and that decision did not bear fruit. Allen made several mistakes in the loss, including a fumbled snap with under one minute to play that the Vikings recovered for a TD.  Allen also threw 2 INTs in the game.

Steelers 20  Saints 10:  The stat sheet says this game should have been a blowout:

• Steelers Total Offense = 379 yards               Saints Total Offense = 186 yards
• Steelers Time of Possession = 38:56   Saints Time of Possession = 21:04
• Steelers Penalties = 3 for 40 yards               Saints Penalties = 10 for 74 yards
• Steelers Third Downs = 9 of 17                        Saints Third Downs = 3 of 12

The return of TJ Watt to the lineup helps to explain the Saints offensive difficulties but with numbers like that the question is:

• How did the Steelers only win by 10 points?

Colts 25  Raiders 20:  As if there was not enough “strangeness” surrounding the Colts over the past couple of weeks, Jeff Saturday sat Sam Ehlinger on the bench and played Matt Ryan at QB.  It was not that long ago that the owner wanted Ryan on the sidelines when Frank Reich was the coach.  That team simply needs to put “WTF” decals on their helmets for the rest of this season.  Meanwhile the Raiders fall to 2-7 losing yet another one-score game.  I said above that the Raiders’ defense has been lacking; in this game they yielded 415 yards to a Colts’ offense that has not been dominant all year long.  Do not let the Raiders’ offense off the hook here; consider the results of the Raiders’ first four possessions:

• 3 plays  5 yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  minus-19 yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  4 yards  PUNT
• 8 plays  28 yards  TURNOVER ON DOWNS

That is 17 plays for 18 yards to start the game.  Outrageous.

Cards 27  Rams 17:  It’s all but official; the Rams are not going to make the playoffs as the reigning Super Bowl Champions.  As of this morning, they are in last place in the NFC West and already have 6 losses on the books.  The Rams cannot run the ball and Cooper Kupp needs ankle surgery which severely limits the passing offense.  The Cards also have 6 losses on the season, but they appear to be a better team than the Rams at this point of the season.  Colt McCoy was the Cards’ QB in this game and John Wolford was the Rams’ QB.  Here is a stat that I ran across earlier this week:

• The Rams have been outscored 81-17 in fourth quarters thus far in 2022.

Packers 31  Cowboys 28 (OT):  Mike McCarthy’s return to Green Bay looked promising early in the second half of last week’s game.  The Cowboys led 28-14 at the start of the 4^th quarter but the Packers scored twice to force OT and then won the game in OT with a chip shot field goal.  Christian Watson – – the guy who dropped the perfectly thrown bomb on the Packers’ first play in Game 1 – – was the hero last week.  Watson caught 3 TD passes from Aaron Rodgers and had 107 yards receiving.  Dallas’ WR, Cee Dee Lamb, caught 11 passes for 150 yards and 2 TDs.  The win snaps a 5-game losing streak for the Packers; the loss drops the Cowboys into third place in the NFC East.  Here is a bit of perspective about this defeat for the Cowboys:

• The Cowboys had never lost a game where they led by 14 points or more in the fourth quarter.
• Prior to this game, the Cowboys’ record in games where they led by 14 points or more in the fourth quarter was 195-0.

Niners 22  Chargers 16:  The Niners outgained the Chargers by 149 yards in this game and held the ball for 36:59 in the game.  The key was the Niners’ exploitation of the Chargers’ run defense; the Niners ran the ball 41 times for 157 yards and 2 TDs.  The Niners are now a half-game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West while the Chargers are now 2 full games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Panthers 25  Falcons 15:  Two mediocre teams put on a mediocre show last Thursday night.  The bright light from the stat sheet was the Panthers running game; they ran the ball 47 times for 232 yards and 2 TDs.  Other than that …

Commanders 32  Eagles 21:  The Commanders dominated time of possession with their run game.

• Commanders Time of Possession = 40:24
• Commanders Offensive Plays = 81                    Eagles Offensive Plays = 47

It was a total team effort for the Commanders.  The offense converted 12 third-down situations; the defense forced 4 turnovers and the special teams contributed a 58-yard field goal.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

            Four teams are on their BYE Week this week:

1. Bucs:  They lead the NFC South by a full game despite a mediocre 5-5 record.  This gives Tom Brady a chance to have Thanksgiving dinner with the wife and kids … scrap that.
2. Dolphins:  They get to luxuriate for a week as the division leader in the AFC East.  Only the Chiefs have scored more points than the Dolphins to this point in the 2022 season.
3. Jags:  The Jags get some rest and some time to try to learn how to win close games.  The Jags’ record is 3-7 and yet the point differential is +11 points.
4. Seahawks:  They too get a week off as a division leader with a half-game lead over the Niners.

Please note that the NFL arranged for all of its three “Florida teams” to be on a BYE Week together.  Is this a test of a State’s ability to deal with withdrawal from NFL game action for a weekend?

In last night’s game, the Titans played workmanlike football in defeating the Packers 27-17.  The Packers seemed to have some momentum after last week’s OT win over the Cowboys, but any remnants of that energetic finish were well hidden in this game.  The Titans scored on the game’s opening possession and never looked back.  The Packers’ game plan was to stop Derrick Henry – – and for the most part they did just that.  The problem is that sort of defense opened the passing game for Ryan Tannehill who looked like a Hall of Fame QB in the game with this stat line:

• 22 of 27 for 333 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Panthers at Ravens – 13.5 (41.5):  The Total Line opened at 45 and has fallen to this level pretty much coinciding with news that Baker Mayfield will be at QB for the Panthers.  The Ravens are coming off their BYE Week; this game has the potential to get UGLY.

Browns vs. Bills – 8 (42.5) [Game moved to Detroit due to weather]:  Does the neutral site really matter here?  The Bills are the better team even with Josh Allen having a “compromised” throwing arm.  I read one weather report that said Buffalo could get up to 6 feet of snow this weekend from a lake-effect storm.  However, another weather source was more optimistic calling for only 4 feet of snow over the weekend.

Eagles – 8 at Colts (45):  The Eagles’ weakness is run defense; the Colts have Jonathan Taylor healthy and ready to play.  I think the Eagles are the better team, but I am not willing to play the game with a spread that is more than a TD.

Commanders – 3 at Texans (40):  This is the second week in a row the Commanders are on the road and that is not a good thing for a young team.  However, here is the good news.  The Texans’ run defense is awful, and the Commanders showed last week that they can use their run game to control the entire game.  Assuming – – I know the danger here – – that Taylor Heinicke does not go way off script and turn the ball over multiple times. I like the Commanders to handle this game very calmly.  I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Jets at Pats – 3 (39):  I thought about this as the Game of the Week because this game has lots of playoff implications down the road.   I see this as a game dominated by the two defenses; Zach Wilson must avoid any dumb turnovers in this game for the Jets to have a chance to win here.

Lions at Giants – 3 (46.5):  The Giants are 7-2; they are at home; they are playing the horribly inconsistent Lions whose record is 3-6.  And the Giants are only favored by a field goal?  The Lions are a feisty team, but that defense is going to be severely challenged here by Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones.  I know the Giants play close games with everyone, but I like them to win by more than a field goal here; I’ll take the home Giants to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

Rams at Saints – 3 (39):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The combined record for these teams is 5-14; the only reason to think the Saints are relevant in 2022 is because they are in a division where the division leader is 5-5.  Matthew Stafford is supposed to be ready to go for the Rams this week; the Saints will stick with Andy Dalton.  Two teams heading to the same place – – oblivion.

Bears at Falcons – 3 (49):  The only reason I am not taking this game to go OVER is that both teams will run the ball successfully and shorten the game/minimize possessions.  The Falcons are still alive in the NFC South race despite a 4-5 record; the Bears are not a factor in the NFC North race.

Raiders at Broncos – 2.5 (41):  This game is not quite “Dog-Breath”, but it is certainly not pretty.  You have heard of the immovable object and the overwhelming force?  Well consider this situation:

• The Broncos’ offense cannot or does not score.
• The Raiders’ defense has yet to hold an opponent under 20 points in a game.

So, the game probably comes down to which underwhelming trend predominates here…

(Sun Nite) Chiefs at Chargers – 5 (52): The spread opened at 7 points and has shrunk by 2 points; meanwhile, the Total Line opened at 50 and has expanded by 2 points.  Go figure…  This is my Game of the Week because it has a major effect on the AFC West standings and potentially on the Playoff BYE Week situation in the AFC.  If the Chiefs win, they will have a 3-game lead on the second place Chargers with 7 games left on the schedule.  That pretty much means that the Chiefs can put a stranglehold on the AFC West division race with a win here.  The game will feature Patrick Mahomes against Justin Herbert; that alone makes this a game you want to watch on Sunday Night Football.

Cowboys – 2 at Vikes (47):  I came within a whisker of calling this one the Game of the Week.  The Vikes have won 7 games in a row; they may not have all been pretty wins, but they have been wins.  The Cowboys need a win here lest they fall significantly behind in a surprisingly tough NFC East race.  The Cowboys’ defense has had problems against the run and last week showed some vulnerability to the pass.  The Vikes have a strong runner in Dalvin Cook and a freakishly good WR in Justin Jefferson.  I like the Vikes to prevail at home so let me have the Vikes plus those two points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Bengals – 4 at Steelers (41):  TJ Watt is back on the field and that elevates a solid Steelers’ defense up to the level of strong.  The Bengals’ offense will be challenged here.  The Steelers’ issue remains their offense’s ability to score; the Steelers have scored only 140 points in 9 games (15.5 points per game); only the Broncos have scored fewer points so far in 2022.

(Mon Nite) Niners – 8 vs. Cards (43.5) [Game is in Mexico City]:  Will Kyler Murray’s hamstring allow him to play?  That is the major question hanging around this matchup in terms of the spread projected here.  I do not think it matters who the Cards play at QB regarding the winner of the game; the Niners seem to be poised to go on a run and take over the NFC West.

Let me review the Six-Pack:

1. Oklahoma St. +7.5 against Oklahoma
2. Iowa +3 against Minnesota
3. Ole Miss – 2.5 over Arkansas
4. Commanders – 3 over Texans
5. Giants – 3 over Lions
6. Vikes +2 against Cowboys

            And here are some Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Bills @ minus-350
• Chiefs @ minus-230
• Niners @ minus-360                                     To win $136.

And …

• Michigan St. @ minus-335
• Liberty @ minus-340
• James Madison @ minus-320                        To win $121

Finally, coaches often talk about their team’s focus on a common goal.  So, let me close this week’s Football Friday with Lou Holtz’ observation about a team’s common goal:

“On this team, we are all united in a common goal; to keep my job.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Nine days ago, the US had its mid-term elections.  If you have tuned into any of the cable news networks between then and now, you have been inundated with commentary, punditry and analysis of who voted how and why.  Not to worry; I am not going to give you any added information along those lines here, but I do want to mention something that was on a ballot last week that has drawn no coverage that I have seen or heard on the cable news outlets:

• Voters in California rejected two ballot initiatives that would have made sports betting legal in California.

Ever since the Supreme Court ruled that each state could choose to have or not to have sports betting within its borders, 33 of the 50 states have instituted legalized sports betting.  Voters in California had two options to establish sports betting there and they rejected both by overwhelming numbers.

1. Proposition 26 would have legalized sports betting at racetracks and at casinos on tribal lands.  It was voted down 70% – 30%.
2. Proposition 27 would have legalized mobile sports betting within the state.  It was voted down 83%-17%.

As you might imagine, these initiatives were supported by sports gambling companies like FanDuel and DraftKings and there was a lot of political advertising in support of the initiatives in the weeks leading up to the election.  Nevertheless, the will of the people in California came through loudly and clearly with those voting margins.

If you have followed any of these rants for any period of time, you know that I am in favor of legalized sports betting for purely pragmatic reasons.  The fact is that those overwhelming rejections of ballot initiatives last week will not stop the citizenry of California from betting on sporting events such as NFL games.  People reporting on those election results never seem to point out that local bookies in every major population center in California remain in business affording someone there who wants “to get down” on “Niners – 7 points against the Cardinals this week” the means to do so.

Gambling is a part of human nature – for better or worse.  People will bet on games legally or illegally.  So, my position is that states should make it legal and then tax the companies’ profits for the states’ general funds.  Voters in California see it differently and so I guess bettors there will continue to have to make the trek to Las Vegas to “get down” on sports action.

[Aside:  One report I read said that pro-gambling interests could still get legalized sports betting in California if the Legislature and Governor enact enabling legislation.  Good luck with that.  The politicians in the Legislature and the Governor himself will not act considering the overwhelming vote just a week ago.  Chances of that happening are Fat, No and Slim.]

Speaking of betting on sports, let me go off on a slight detour here and pose this question:

• Has the NFL’s pursuit of parity overachieved?

The mantra of the league has long been, “On any given Sunday…”  And this year the parity in the league is significant.

• Seven of the 32 teams are within one game of .500
• Eleven of the 32 teams are within two games of .500.

There is no dynasty in the league and the two teams that have been the targets of scorn in recent years (Jags and Lions) have both escaped the basement of their divisions as of this morning.  Instead of the league breaking into three general categories of “The Haves”, “The Have Nots” and “The Question Marks”, it appears as if the NFL in 2022 consists of:

• “The Better Than Averages”
• “The Great Unwashed Middle”
• “The Needs Work”

I suggest here that fans everywhere want “great teams”/”dynasty teams” so that fans of the “great teams” can revel in reflected glory and fans of “other teams” can hate on the successes of the great teams.  When an underdog beats a leviathan that was favored by 14 points, there is a lot of emotion spilling out on both sides of that outcome.  When Team A with a record of 7-6 beats Team B with a record of 6-7, the fans of Team A are happy – – but nowhere near ecstatic.

Let me be clear; the NFL has no reason to worry about this in 2022 or for the foreseeable future.  One can extrapolate the situation that exists now to a point where the best teams finish the season at 11-6 and the worst teams finish at 6-11 and fans become less enthusiastic and turn to other diversions.  If that is ever going to happen, it will be decades from now.  Today, the NFL enjoys the interest and the attention of millions of people who play fantasy football and fantasy players do not focus on team successes and failures; fantasy players only care about individual stats.  Those millions of fans do not and will not care if “The Great Unwashed Middle” expands to cover as many as 25 teams in some future season.

Finally, since some of today’s essay dealt with mediocrity, let me close with this observation on the subject:

“Radio is a bag of mediocrity where little men with carbon minds wallow in sluice of their own making.”  Fred Allen

[Aside:  And remember that Fred Allen never had to listen to sports talk radio…]

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL season is “half-over”; so, there is a sufficient sample size available to look at how the NFL is doing on TV in 2022.  There is a two-part answer to that question:

1. The average audience for an NFL game is down 4% as compared to last year.
2. Since the start of the 2022 NFL season on September 8^th, NFL telecasts have drawn the 38 largest audiences and 47 of the “Top 50” television programs.

Many reports see the presence of Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime Video as the explanation for that 4% decline.  Last year, those games were available on NFL Network – – which is available in about 72 million homes in the US – – and on FOX and on Prime Video which provided a greater “reach” for those Thursday games than exists this year with the streaming service alone.  Even with that “reduced availability” the average audience for a regular season NFL game in 2022 has been 16.2 million viewers.

Thursday games last season drew an average of 12.6 million viewers; this year Thursday games average only 10.0 million viewers.  But even considering that significant decline, there is good news for the NFL in the numbers.  Surveys say that the presence of the games via streaming has attracted a much younger audience; that is good news for advertisers and therefore good news for the NFL in the long run.  Surveys say that the average age for a Thursday night viewer is 46 years old and the average age for a viewer of a game on network TV is 54 years old.

Folks on “the business side” of the NFL understandably have a bounce in their step about now; their product is broadly consumed, and they are engaging their “audience of the future”.  Such is not quite the atmosphere surrounding folks on “the business side” of MLB.  The TV ratings for the recently completed World Series were bad when you look at the numbers with internal comparisons.

• This year was the second worst TV ratings ever for the World Series.  Only the pandemic-shortened 202 season had a World Series with a smaller audience.

[Aside:  The World Series has been on TV since 1947; obviously there were not that many TV sets available in 1947 so I do not know how far back in history one goes to make modern numbers comparisons here.]

• Game 6 – – the deciding game this year – – drew a smaller audience than the college football game between Georgia and Tennessee.
• The last three World Series account for the three lowest audience totals and this year’s average audience for the World Series was smaller than the average audience for the NBA Finals.

There is a nugget of good TV audience news for MLB execs about now.  It may not have carried over into the World Series, but the divisional rounds of the MLB playoffs this year drew the largest audiences in the past five seasons.  If someone has determined how or why that was the case, I have not found it.

Those television numbers probably give energy to the folks in MLB who want to change a few rules to energize the product.  Next year there will be a few changes:

• A pitch clock will be in effect.  That has been the case in minor league baseball for several years now and it does keep the game moving.
• Larger bases – theoretically – will increase base stealing attempts.  If that actually happens, that means more action in the game.
• “The shift” will be reined in a bit.  Presumably, that will cut down on home run swings which will cut down on strikeouts which will put the ball in play more often.

I hope all those initiatives achieve their desired results; I am glad to see that MLB is willing to depart from tradition just a bit to try to spice things up a bit.  I have four more suggestions for MLB to consider:

1. Ditch the “ghost runner” in extra inning games.  Yes, the “ghost runner” has reduced the number of marathon games (14 innings and longer) but those are games that should have an audience on the edge of its seat.  I think the “ghost runner” does at least as much harm as it does good.
2. Reduce the number of teams in the playoffs from 12 (this year) to 8 in future years.  Yes, I know that would have eliminated the Phillies from the playoffs this year and they made it to the World Series.  The problem is that the 12-team field extends the playoff schedule to a month; that is too long a period to maintain interest and there are too many playoff games making each playoff game more like an ”occurrence” than an ”event”.
3. If cutting back on the number of teams in the playoffs is unacceptable, then cut back the number of games in the regular season.  I think a 144-game schedule would allow for plenty of time to sort out the playoff teams while providing a few more off-days for teams in the middle of the season and a way to avoid ridiculous baseball weather games in early April and/or early November.
4. To try to reach a broader audience, have a Game of the Week on TV on Saturday afternoons at least from June to September if not longer.

Finally, let me tie a ribbon around my suggestions for MLB above by citing this observation by Thomas Edison:

“I have not failed.  I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Here in the DC area, there is one major sports franchise that is clearly up for sale and another major sports franchise that everyone in the area hopes is truly up for sale.  The MLB Washington Nationals is the first franchise looking for a new owner; the Washington Commanders is the other franchise that almost every sports fan in the area hopes will be sold ASAP.  I have no dogs in either of those fights; it matters not a whit to me who owns either franchise but having thought about the “franchise marketplace” a bit, it seems to me as if there are a lot of opportunities for billionaires around the world to “buy in” if that is what they want to do.

Here is a compilation off the top of my head of the sports teams/franchises that are reported to be up for sale at the moment.  I am not talking about pickleball teams in pickleball leagues that have no established relevance in the sports world.  I am not talking about National Women’s Soccer League franchises that may some day get TV deals that allow their “Game of the Week” to attract more than a million viewers.  I am talking here about big name and big-time franchises:

• Washington Commanders – NFL:  Forbes says this club is worth $6.5B so bids in the neighborhood of $7B are not out of the question.  There is plenty of reported interest in buying the whole club; from what I read there is little to no interest in anyone buying into a minority interest in the team with Danny Boy Snyder still in charge of the whole shooting match.  This story has at least a half-dozen twists ant turns to go before it gets into the home stretch regarding a team sale.  I’ll believe it when the ink has dried on the contract…
• Washington Nationals – MLB:  The current owners took a fiscal hit during the COVID pandemic because their major source of wealth was commercial real estate.  Do not feel too sorry for them; the franchise is valued at $2.5B and will likely go to a bidder that goes slightly north of that figure.
• Liverpool Football Club – EPL:  The Liverpool team is currently owned by the same folks who own the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Penguins and a few other sporting endeavors.  Liverpool is in no imminent danger of relegation in English football; in fact, as of today they are a full 9 points clear of the relegation zone.  I have read reports that say the club could be worth $4.1 – 4.5B and that such a bid would be sufficient to take control of the team.  Please do not take anything I said above as authoritative about the value of EPL franchises.
• Inter Milan – Italian Serie A:  Reports say this franchise is worth $1.2B and other reports say that the club hopes only to sell a minority interest in the team.  My “knowledge” regarding Italian soccer football cannot be understated, but Inter Milan is one of the most recognized teams in the top Italian league along with clubs such as Juventus, Roma, and Lazio.
• LA Angels – MLB:  Here is another way for someone to self-identify as one of only 30 people who own a franchise in MLB.  The price tag is reported to be in the $2.5-2.8B range.  As compared to the Washington Nationals franchise that has a similar valuation, the Angels are in a much larger market than the Nationals will ever experience.  However, the Angels have been the “poor relatives” as compared to the Dodgers for at least the last 30 years.  Indeed, the Nationals face some competition for interest from the Baltimore Orioles only about 50 miles away, but that is nothing as compared to the domination exercised by the Dodgers in SoCal.  [Aside:  Some folks say that the Orioles might also be up for sale if/when Peter Angelos passes on.  That could put a third MLB franchise on the market.]
• Phoenix Suns – NBA:  The league forced the sale of the team based on a lot of “sleazy reports” about the current owner and the workplace of the team’s front office.  Forbes says the franchise is worth $2B; the NBA wants/needs the sale price to be higher than that because when Steve Balmer bought the Clippers at a forced sale about 8-10 years ago, he paid $2B for that franchise.  The NBA surely hopes the value of one of its franchises on the open market does not sell for less than the last one that was up for sale.
• Ottawa Senators – NHL:  Last I saw, this franchise was valued at $700M – – which is pocket change for the folks who are trying to pick up the Washington Commanders’ franchise in the NFL.    One thing that might keep a lid of some sort on the price tag here is a condition of the sale that the team remain in Ottawa.  Without the threat to move from Ottawa to somewhere else on the globe – – Sioux Falls, SD, USA? – – a new owner here would be missing out on one of his/her more valuable negotiating postures to get concessions from local politicians.

Notwithstanding the valuations placed on some of these properties and/or the prices they could bring, there is added value in scarcity.  It seems that there are an unusual number of sports franchises available at one time and I wonder if that suggests that there will be a downward pressure on the bids from prospective buyers.  It is not as if there are hundreds of “customers” out there searching for these commodities.  Could be interesting…

Finally, today’s rant has focused on an upper level of professional sports; so, let me close with this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm about a more minor level of sports:

“Little League:  A youth sporting event that provides a socially acceptable way for adults to scar their children with the burden of their parents’ shattered, unfulfilled dreams.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday was the first time the NFL played a regular season game in Germany; the Bucs and Seahawks met in Munich and played in front of a crowd of 69,811 folks.  Back in the days when the NFL was trying to cultivate interest in Europe with the WLAF and NFL Europe, Germany was a place where fan interest seemed strong.  Yesterday’s game drew great interest as measured by the fact that the NFL created an electronic queue for those who wanted tickets for this inaugural “Germany Game”.  When that queue opened, the league says that 800,000 people tried for spots in that queue.  [Aside:  Of course, there were individuals who tried to sign up multiple times so that figure is inflated, but it does indicate ”fan interest” in the NFL product in Germany.]  Yesterday’s game provided a sample of one event, but that attendance figure tells me that “Germany” is now on the NFL’s list of “places to play regular season games” with a check mark next to it.

The NFL is serious about extending its fanbase beyond the US borders.  I read a report several months ago that said the league has assigned international marketing rights to 19 of the 32 teams in the league.  Germany, Mexico and the UK have now hosted regular season games; those three countries are targeted by specific teams for marketing opportunities.  However, the league’s “reach” is much more ambitious; for example, the LA Rams have been assigned the task of marketing the NFL to Australia and China.  In addition, when the NFL expanded its season to 17 games, it also slipped in a rule that every team must play at least one regular season game at an international venue every 8 seasons.

Commissioner Goodell is on record saying that he thinks London could support one and possibly two NFL teams on a permanent basis and that if the idea is to expand with two teams in London – or Europe – then maybe the idea should encompass a European Division which would minimize the number of trans-Atlantic crossings for the teams based there.  That makes intuitive sense, and it also makes for a complete realignment of the existing divisions within the league.  For example, you cannot just expand to 4 European cities and label them as the “European Division” because the current structure has 4 divisions per conference and adding “fifth one” to either conference would be awkward at best.

For the time being at least, the NFL is probably happy to stage a half dozen or so of its 272 regular season games outside the US.  There are revenue streams to be tapped “over there” …

Next up is an unusual happenstance in MLB…  The Houston Astros won this year’s World Series and were in last year’s World Series as the AL champs.  In 2021, the Astros drew 25,537 fans per home game; and in 2022, that number increased significantly to 33,198 fans per game.  In case your cell phone is not handy, the 2022 attendance for the Astros was a bit over 2.6M patrons.  So, the team was successful on the field and at the box office.

It turns out that both manager, Dusty Baker, and GM, James Click, had expiring contracts at the end of the season.  About a week ago, the team announced that Dusty Baker would be back in the dugout next year on a one-year contract.  After two World Series appearances in a row, he gets a one-year deal?

Thinking about that situation a bit more provides a possible explanation:

• Dusty Baker will be 74 years old in the middle of the 2023 MOB season.
• MAYBE Dusty Baker only wants to commit to managing a team for a year at a time?

However, the oddity of the story does not end there.  The Astros announced late last week that they will not give GM, James Click, a new contract.  According to reports, he too was offered a one-year contract, but he wanted a longer deal and the owner, Jim Crane, was not willing to do that.  Given the team success in the past two seasons on the field and at the box office, I have to wonder why the owner and the GM could not come to terms there.  The GM had to have been a significant part of the effort to construct the rosters of the last two Astros’ teams that played in the World Series; and even if he had nothing to do with marketing the team to the fans, the success of the team had to be part of the gate attraction that drew 2.6M fans last season.

There just has to be more to this story and I suspect it will come out in dribs and drabs.  Click is only 44 years old, so he is likely to be in and around MLB for a long time.  His “GM credentials” are well-polished.  Unless he is a royal pain in the ass and impossible to work with, James Click will get another shot at building a team.

Finally, here is a note from Dwight Perry’s weekend column in the Seattle Times that you should keep in mind as the FIFA World Cup gets underway:

“At Fark.com: ‘Former FIFA boss says giving the World Cup to Qatar was a mistake. It sure took a long time for that check to clear.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The New York Times says it has:

“All the news that’s fit to print”

A small 8-page local newspaper might say:

“All the news that fits, we print”

For today’s Football Friday-Lite, the word here in Curmudgeon Central is:

“All the stuff I had time to research fits just fine”

As usual, I begin with a review of last week’s Six-Pack:

• College = 2-1-0                                                          Season Total = 17-9-0
• NFL = 2-1-0                                                                Season Total = 14-14-3
• Money Line Parlays = 1-1                                        Season Total = 5-14
• Profit/Loss = +$28                                                     Season Total = minus-$378

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats ran their record for 2022 to 8-0 last week with a 65-0 beatdown of Willamette University. The Bearcats took the opening kickoff and had to punt the ball 2 minutes later.  That punt was blocked and returned for a TD, and it only got worse after that.  This weekend, Linfield completes its regular season schedule with a trip to Portland, OR to take on Lewis and Clark – – the college footb all team and not the corpses of the two famous 19^th century explorers.  Go Wildcats!

Some happenings in the SEC from last week …

Georgia 27  Tennessee 13:  Tennessee was averaging 49.6 points per game – and then it met up with Georgia’s defense which did not allow the Vols a TD until the 4^th quarter.  Tennessee QB, Hendon Hooker was sacked 6 times in the game.  It was not as close as the score might indicate.

LSU 32  Alabama 31:  Alabama’s second loss of the season pretty much assures they will not be part of the CFP this season.  That will be the second time in nine years that has happened.  LSU won on a 2-point conversion at the end of the game; lost in the noise over that bold move is that Alabama tried for 2-point conversions twice earlier in the game and failed on both attempts.

Liberty 21  Arkansas 19:  This was a game in Arkansas and the Razorbacks were a 14.5-point favorite.  Huge Freeze has Liberty playing serious football in 2022…

In ACC action …

Notre Dame 35  Clemson 14:  Clemson was ranked 4^th in the first – – and most meaningless – – CFP poll.  Then they went out and lost to Notre Dame by 3 TDs.  By the way, that is the same Notre Dame team that lost at home to Marshall earlier this year.

• [Aside:  If I wanted to make a wager back in August that both Alabama and Clemson would be virtually eliminated from CFP participation after the first week in November, what sort of odds do you think I might have gotten?]

Florida St. 45  Miami 3:  Back in the summer training camp times, people were salivating over the transfers and the recruits at Miami under new coach Mario Cristobal.  Well, maybe those new players were not as good as they were touted to be – – or maybe there is a coaching deficiency at Miami.  Something is wrong…

Duke 38  BC 31:  The futures bet for “Total Wins” by Duke this year was 3.  The Blue Devils became bowl eligible with this win and there are still games to play.  I said in my college football preview rant that I loved that OVER wager…

Moving along to the Big -12…

TCU 34  Texas Tech 24:  TCU just keeps on winning and is now 9-0.    But the remaining schedule for TCU is hardly a walkover:

• At Texas (this weekend)
• At Baylor
• Vs. Iowa St.
• Big-12 Championship Game???

Kansas 37  Oklahoma St. 16:    The Cowboys looked like the best team to challenge TCU in the Big-12 but they have laid an egg for two weeks in a row now.  Yes, the Cowboys have their starting QB on the sidelines but what happened to their defense?  They have given up 75 points in the last two games – – not surprisingly, both losses.   By the way, Kansas now has a shot at a winning season in 2022 and if that happens it will be their first winning season in 14 years.  Since that last winning season in 2008:

• The Jayhawks have had 7 head coaches (counting one interim head coach)
• Produced a cumulative record of 34-128-0 (counting this year’s 6-3 record)

Baylor 38  Oklahoma 35:  Baylor remains an outsider for the Big-12 Championship Game with this win.  The Sooners’ record falls to 5-4.

            In the Big-10 last week …

Ohio St. 21  Northwestern 7:    Ohio State won – – but did not come close to covering – – over Northwestern in a game dominated by bad weather.

Michigan 52  Rutgers 17:  Michigan struggled early against Rutgers but dominated in the end 52-17.  What do I mean by “dominated”?  Consider:

• Rutgers total offense = 180 yards
• Rutgers rushing offense = 14 yards (on 23 carries)
• Rutgers first downs = 5
• Rutgers offensive plays = 48  (Michigan ran 80 offensive plays)

Michigan St. 23  Illinois 15:  Looks as if the Illini could not stand prosperity.  Their loss leaves the Big-10 West as up for grabs.  Illinois has 2 conference losses and a game against Michigan still to come.  Four teams in the Big-10 West have 3 conference losses (Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota).

In the PAC-12 …

Oregon 49  Colorado 10:  Oregon continued to dominate the lower tier of the PAC-12.  Washington comes to visit Oregon this week and then Utah arrives next week before the Ducks close out the season on the road at Oregon St. in the “Civil War” rivalry game.

USC 41  Cal 35:  USC beat Cal by a TD, but the USC defense is almost painful to watch.   I don’t even want to think about what the Total Line for USC vs. Oregon might be if they were to meet in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  It could easily be in the mid-80s.

In other games of interest:

Air Force 13  Army 7:  The Falcons take possession of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy for 2022 having beaten both Army and Navy this season.

UConn 27  UMass 10:  That is 5 wins this year for UConn; they might be bowl eligible.  They have two games left to find a 6^th win for the season:

• Vs. Liberty – – Liberty beat Arkansas last week; this looks bad for the Huskies
• At Army – – UConn’s chance for an invite to the “Poulin Weed-Eater Bowl”

Rice 37  UTEP 30:  That is Rice’s 5^th win for the year as they look for a chance to go to a bowl game.  Here is what is left for the Owls:

• At W. Kentucky
• Vs. Texas-San Antonio
• At North Texas

Here are the teams on my SHOE Tournament radar this week – – presented by their records so far:

• Akron, Colorado Northwestern UMass and USF are all 1-8 so far in 2022
• Hawaii and UNC-Charlotte are both 2-8 so far in 2022
• Arkansas St., BC, Colorado St., New Mexico and Northern Illinois are all 2-7 so far in 2022.

Here is the “race” for the Brothel Defense Award for 2022 as of this week:

• USF allows 39.6 points per game
• Colorado allows 40.2 points per game
• UNC-Charlotte allows 42.8 points per game

[Aside:  Please note that the 3 leading contenders for the Brothel Defense Award are also potential participants in the SHOE Tournament…]

 

College Football Games of Interest This Week:

 

            There are a handful of important games on the card this week that I have highlighted here as “big games”.

UNC at Wake Forest – 4 (77):  The Tar Heels are undefeated in ACC games and have a two-game lead in the loss column in the ACC Coastal Division; Wake Forest has 3 conference losses and is pretty much out of it in the ACC Atlantic Division.  The interesting thing here is the Total Line; both teams have good offenses and neither team has anything nearly resembling a “shut-down defense”.

Miami at Ga Tech – 2.5 (44):  After last week’s shellacking at the hands of Florida St., the oddsmakers seem to have abandoned Miami.

Kansas at Texas Tech – 3.5 (64):  Kansas is already bowl-eligible at 6-3 but is pretty much out of it regarding the Big-12 race because all the losses are in conference games.  Texas Tech is 4-5 overall and needs to find 2 wins to play in a bowl game.

Purdue at Illinois – 6.5 (45):  The Illini have a one-game lead in the loss column in the Big-10 West and Purdue is one of the teams chasing Illinois.  As noted above, Illinois has a date with Michigan still to weather so Illinois cannot afford a loss here.  This is a big game.

K-State at Baylor – 3 (52):  This is a big game in the Big-12.  Both teams are 4-2 in conference games, and both hope to be part of the Big-12 Championship Game.

Washington at Oregon – 12.5 (73):  The Total Line opened at 70 points and jumped up to near this level almost immediately.  Oregon must win out to have a shot at the CFP; Washington is under no such pressure.

TCU at Texas – 7.5 (65.5):  Texas (along with K-State and Baylor) has a 4-2 record in Big-12 games; TCU is undefeated for the season.  A win for Texas here could produce a huge disruption in the Big-12 dynamic regarding the CFP.  This is a big game; in fact, this is my College Football Game of the Week.

That line looks fat to me – – particularly with that hook on top of a full TD in the spread; give me undefeated TCU plus the points on the road; put it in the Six-Pack.

Texas A&M at Auburn – 2.5 (48.5):  The Aggies continue to find ways to disappoint; Auburn was sufficiently disappointing for the 2022 season that they got their coach fired.  Call this one the Agony Bowl?

Alabama – 11.5 at Ole Miss (65.5):  The Total Line opened at 62.5 and has been trending upward all week.  Ole Miss and LSU each have 1 conference loss; Alabama has 2 conference losses; all three teams are in the SEC West.  This is a big game.  Ole Miss likes to run the ball; Ole Miss has trouble stopping the run so Alabama should run the ball here too.  That makes for the potential of a low scoring game; so, give me the UNDER here; put it in the Six-Pack.

Wisconsin at Iowa – 1 (35):  Both Wisconsin and Iowa are 3-3 in conference games in the Big-10 West; at the moment, they trail Illinois by only 1 game.  The loser here will be virtually eliminated from the Big-10 West race.  This is a big game.

I know that both teams rely on defense and that neither team has an offense that would scare an Ivy League defensive coordinator, but that Total Line is too low; I like the game to go OVER; put it in the Six-Pack.

LSU – 4 at Arkansas (61.5):  this game has a lot more meaning to LSU than it does to Arkansas.  I wonder if that small spread reflects a suspicion by the oddsmakers that LSU could suffer a let-down after the heroic win over Alabama last week …???

Georgia – 16.5 at Mississippi St. (53.5):  The Georgia Bulldogs are ranked #1 in this week’s CFP ranking and want to keep that situation intact.  I doubt that the Mississippi St. Bulldogs will be able to keep pace here.

 

NFL Commentary

 

The NFL season is about at the halfway point – – with an odd number of games and BYE weeks for teams spread out over the course of two months it is hard to identify an exact mid-point – – so maybe it is time to look at some playoff extrapolations.  There are 7 slots in each conference so let me look at the NFC first:

• I am ready to concede the NFC North title to the Vikes.
• I like the Eagles and Cowboys to come out of the NFC East
• Someone has to win the NFC South and make the playoffs – – Bucs or Saints?
• The “eyeball test” tells me that the Niners are the best team in the NFC West.

So that accounts for 5 NFC teams leaving two open slots:

• I don’t like anyone else in the NFC North to make the playoffs.  In fact, maybe the second-best team there is the Bears and not the Packers.
• Can the Giants continue to play relatively error-free football?  If so, they can sneak in too.  The Commanders are not out of it but cannot afford to give games away as they did last week against the Vikes.
• Only one NFC South team will get in – – Bucs or Saints?
• The Seahawks have a nice lead in the NFC West and even though I think the Niners will catch them, I doubt that either the Rams or the Cards pose much of a threat.
• So, the NFC playoff question is which two teams of the Giants, Commanders and Seahawks get the nod.

The AFC is more up in the air.

• I am ready to concede the AFC South title to the Titans.
• I like the Chiefs to win the AFC West – – but I am not nearly as confident here as I am about the Titans.  I like the Chiefs to get in the playoffs even if they do not win this division.
• In the AFC North, I like the Ravens to continue their strong play and win that division.
• In the AFC East, the Bills will win – – IF Josh Allen’s elbow does not derail the train.

So, who might be the other three playoff teams…?

• As of this morning, give me the Dolphins, Jets and Chargers.
• Other threats for those playoff positions are the Bengals, Pats – – and the Browns if they can stay close until Deshaun Watson is eligible to play come December and assuming he can play at 80-90% of his capability after about a two-year layoff.
• And remember – – IF Josh Allen’s elbow has him on the shelf for a while …

Here are some general comments from last week’s NFL results:

Four games last Sunday finished with a 20-17 score.

Vikes beat Commanders 20-17 moving the Vikes to 7-1 for the season – – the only loss was to the Eagles who are 8-0.  The Commanders led 17-10 in the fourth quarter and squandered the lead when QB Taylor Heinicke threw a brutally ugly INT that led to a Vikings’ TD.

Jets beat Buffalo 20-17 moving the Jets to half a game behind the Bills in the AFC East race.  Josh Allen was sacked 5 times in the game.

Chargers beat Falcons 20-17 demoting the Falcons to second place in the NFC South.

Chiefs beat Titans 20-17 in OT in a battle of division leaders.  The Chiefs were 13-point favorites in the game, but it took heroic measures by Patrick Mahomes late in the 4^th quarter and then again in OT to pull out this win.

Dolphins beat the Bears 35-32.  The Bears have scored a total of 61 points in their last two games – – and lost both.  Over the last two weeks, the Bears traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith from their defense…

Jags beat Raiders 27-20 after the Raiders ran out to a 17-0 lead in the first half.  Scoring 20 points will not get it done for the Raiders in 2022 because that defense has yet to hold a team under 20 in a game.  Trevor Lawrence was 25 of 31 for 235 yards and 1 TD in the game.

The Lions beat the Packers 15-9.  The Packers outgained the Lions by 135 yards and held the ball for 34:42 in the game.  Normally, that translates to a win, but 3 Packers’ turnovers (all INTs by Aaron Rodgers) gave the Lions their second win of the season and may have doomed the Packers to non-playoff status for 2022.  So, is it now fair to ask:

• Did Rodgers’ “ayahuasca event” in Peru have another effect beyond giving Rodgers the ability to love his teammates unconditionally?

The Packers are now 3-6 and the rest of their November schedule looks tough:

• Vs. Cowboys (this week)
• Vs. Titans
• At Eagles
• Packers might be 3-9 when December starts…

The Bucs beat the Rams 16-13 in a snoozer of a game.  Cam Akers was let out of the coaches’ doghouse for this game; he might be returning there after carrying the ball 5 times for 3 yards.  The Rams managed to make only 9 first downs in the entire game.  Absent a miracle, the Rams are toast – – and they had to put QB Matthew Stafford in the concussion protocol this week.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

            There are 4 teams on their BYE Week this week:

1. Bengals:  They must hope that another week off will get Jamarr Chase back near full capacity.  He is a significant weapon for the Bengals’ offense.
2. Jets:  I think the Jets’ defense can carry them to the playoffs this year – – but they need to use this time off to coach up Zack Wilson on how to avoid boneheaded plays that produce backbreaking results.
3. Ravens:  They have a one-game lead in the AFC North and just need to keep on grinding.
4. Pats:  Their defense is good – – but not good enough to carry a really vanilla offense.  They need to use this week to infuse some life in that offense.

(Sun Morning) Seahawks vs Bucs – 2.5 (44)  [Game is in Munich Germany]:  The Seahawks have won 4 games in a row; the Bucs have looked truly mediocre for the last month despite a win last week over the Rams.  I do not understand this line at all, but I do not want to back Geno Smith against Tom Brady either.  I think the game comes down to something simple:

• Seahawks like to run the ball to set up their pass game
• One thing the Bucs do well is stop the run.
• Ergo …

Jags at Chiefs – 9.5 (51):  This could be a sandwich game for the Chiefs after beating division leading Titans last week and facing their closest AFC West rival – – Chargers – – next week.  The Jags’ record this year is 3-6 but consider:

• They are +21 in points differential
• All 6 losses have been by one-score

I do not think there is an upset brewing here, but I do think that line is fat; give me the Jags plus those points; put it in the Six-Pack.

Texans at Giants – 4 (41):  The Total Line opened at 38 and has climbed to this level for no known reason.  The Giants’ offense starts with Saquon Barkley running the football; the Texans have given up 100+ yards in 7 of their 8 games this year.  The Texans’ offense also starts with the run game and the Giants’ run defense is not super-good.  That is why the Total Line opened as low as 38 points and it does not seem to me that much has happened in the last week to add a field goal to the original estimate.

Saints – 1.5 at Steelers (40):  The spread opened as a “pick ‘em game”.  The Saints can still win their division because no one else in their division is particularly good.  That should give them a slight motivational edge over the Steelers who are not going to win their division and should be looking forward to 2023 pretty soon.  When Andy Dalton was with the Bengals, he played the Steelers 16 times and won only 3 of those games.  I gave this game consideration for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

Lions at Bears – 2.5 (48):  Had you shown me this week’s schedule in August, I would have predicted this game to be the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but it will have to take a back seat to one that comes later.  The Bears’ offense has come to life in the last two weeks as Justin Field has been running and passing with great efficiency; they have scored 61 points in the last two games and lost both.  The Lions’ defense gives up almost 30 points per game.  I am so tempted to take the OVER here …

Browns at Dolphins – 3.5 (49.5):  This is an important game for both teams.  The Browns are still within hailing distance of a playoff spot, and they do have Deshaun Watson on tap starting in early December.  They have 5 losses to date and need to avoid another one here.  Meanwhile the Dolphins are tied with the Jets at 6-3 in the AFC East and that puts them only a half-game behind the Bills in that race – – and the Bills might have a QB with a bum elbow.  The Dolphins need to avoid a loss here too.

Vikes at Bills – 3 (43):  This Total Line opened the week at 46 points.  The Josh Allen elbow situation likely drove the number down to this level.   The spread opened at 6 points and has collapsed to this level likely for the same reason.  I cannot make a selection in the game with that level of uncertainty surrounding the key player for the Bills’ offense.

Broncos at Titans – 3 (39):  The Broncos had a BYE Week last week; the Titans hope to have Ryan Tannehill back from injury this week.  Let me be clear; Ryan Tannehill is not a great QB – – but as of this date, he is far more capable than Malik Willis; Tannehill would be a major upgrade here.

Colts at Raiders – 4.5 (41.5):  The spread opened at 6 points and has shrunk as the week progressed.  This is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week for so many reasons:

• This is Jeff Saturday’s coaching debut at something over the high school level.
• “Reports say” that some of the Colts’ players are upset with that selection
• Can the Raiders’ defensive staff get hold of game tape from Hebron Christian Academy games from a few years ago?
• Rookie QB Sam Ehlinger will have a play-caller who has never called plays before
• And then – – there is the clown show known as the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense…

I would not trust either team any further than I can throw a piano with my left hand.

Cards at Rams – 1.5 (40.5):  Both teams are stinking out the joint in 2022.  The Rams are a mess; they cannot – – or will not – – run the football and Cooper Kupp is their only pass catcher who gets open more than occasionally.  And – – Matthew Stafford was in concussion protocol this week.  On the other sideline are the Cards whose record is 3-6 and whose defense gives up 27 points per game.  Not a pretty picture here…

Cowboys – 4 at Packers (44.5):  Last night on the Amazon streamcast, Al Michaels was hyping this one as the late afternoon national game and said the question was:

• Can the Packers save their season here?

The Cowboys are tied with the Giants in the NFC East two games behind the Eagles.  If the Packers lose, they can just “pack it in” so to speak; if the Cowboys lose, they put a playoff slot in jeopardy.

• Motivation Edge = Cowboys

The Cowboys’ defense ought to be fired up for this game after watching last week’s tape where the Packers scored all of 9 points against the Lions.  I said against the LIONS!

I think this is a blowout game; I’ll take the Cowboys to win and cover on the road as Mike McCarthy wins a revenge game in Green Bay; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Sun Nite) Chargers at Niners – 7 (45):  This is the Game of the Week.  These are both good teams in second place in their division who need to win this game on this date.  I think there are two factors to consider here:

• The Chargers are on the road for the second straight week while the Niners had a BYE last week.
• The Niners like to run the ball and they run it well; the Chargers’ defensive weakness is defending the run.

This should be an exciting game where both teams leave everything on the field; I think the Niners prevail here; give me the Niners to win and cover; put it in the Six-Pack.

(Mon Nite) Commanders at Eagles – 11 (44):  The Commanders can still see a path to the playoffs, but a loss here would blur their vision.  Their defense has played well for the last 3 or 4 games and that will have to continue against the Eagles who come to the game with a “mini-BYE” since they played on Thursday last week and on Monday Night this week.  If you like the Commanders to win outright here, they are the longest shot on the board this week on the Money Line at +425.  I’ll pass…

Let me review the Six-Pack here:

• TCU +7.5 against Texas
• Alabama/Ole Miss UNDER 65.5
• Wisconsin/Iowa OVER 35
• Jags +9.5 against Chiefs
• Cowboys – 4.5 over Packers
• Niners – 7 over Chargers

            Here are four Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Cowboys @ minus-215
• Dolphins @ minus-175                     To win $130

And …

• Bears @ minus-145
• Giants @ minus-225                         To win $144

And …

• Cowboys
• Dolphins
• Bears
• Giants  Money Lines as above             To win $462

And just for fun…

• TCU @ +240
• UNC @+160                                       To win $784

            Finally, let me close today with this item from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Kafka, Franz:  Czech-born author of the early twentieth century whose nightmarish novels feature tormented souls plagued by personal demons and kept in a suffocating state of repression by an uncaring and dominant government.  ‘The Feel-Good Writer of the Year’ (Prague Morning Herald, 1921)”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In a normal college football season, the first week of November is about the time that the carnival workers take the cover off and start lubricating the annual coaching carousel as rumors of firings and backroom dealings begin to fly.  But this has hardly been a normal season in terms of coaching stability.  The firings began in September; Scott Frost was the first to part company with Nebraska and there have been plenty of other schools that followed suit to date.  Here is a list seven firings off the top of my head – – so there must be others:

1. Scott Frost – – Nebraska
2. Herm Edwards – – Arizona St.
3. Karl Dorrell – – Colorado
4. Bryan Harsin – – Auburn
5. Geoff Collins – – Ga Tech
6. Jeff Scott – – USF
7. Paul Chryst – – Wisconsin

On that list, only the job at USF is outside the so-called Power-5 Conferences; that means there should be plenty of eager aspirants for ADs to pursue.  There are several “Candidate Categories” where ADs and/or search committees do business; surely, these will be fertile hunting grounds in this season of wide-open coaching positions.

Athletic Directors like to find a coach at a “small program” who has been incredibly successful and hire him to being his energy and his “culture” to a bigger program.  Sometimes that works out very well, but sometimes it does not.  Bryan Harsin came to Auburn after plenty of success at Boise St.; Geoff Collins came to Ga Tech after success at Temple.; Scott Frost had an undefeated season at UCF. I think folks will go fishing in this pool again this year and there are several names that come to my mind:

• Hugh Freeze (Liberty).  He has been the head coach at Liberty since 2019.  This year, the Flames are 8-1 and have been ranked in the Top 25.  His overall record as of today is 34-12.
• Deion Sanders (Jackson St.).  He has used his celebrity status to recruit talent to play for a team in the SWAC.  Conventional thinking is that he could be even more successful in recruiting with a more prominent program to sell to athletes.  Jackson St. is 9-0 this year and in Sanders’ tenure there, his record is 19-1.
• Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina):  He has been on the job since 2019 and after a 5-7 record in his first year there, the Chanticleers have gone 19-2.

Another candidate category are former college coaches who have been on the sidelines for a year or so.  Five candidates of this type come to mind:

1. Tom Herman – – had success at Houston and Texas
2. Bronco Mendenhall – – had success at BYU and UVa
3. Dan Mullen – – had success at Mississippi St. and Florida
4. Urban Meyer – – of course
5. Chris Petersen – – had success at Boise St. and Washington

Naturally, anyone who had been a head coach in the NFL can be considered a target for these jog searches so maybe these guys will get a call or two:

• Bill O’Brien
• Matt Rhule
• Frank Reich

And of course, there are always the “hot coordinators” who have been guiding parts of very successful team who are seen as being able to bring that level of excellence with them.  This year, I went to look up the names of coordinators that fit that description because I rarely can identify college coordinators if asked to do so directly.

• Jim Chaney – – Offensive coordinator at Tennessee
• Kenny Dillingham – – Offensive coordinator at Oregon.
• Phil Longo – – Offensive coordinator at UNC
• Glenn Schumann – – Defensive coordinator at Georgia
• Ryan Walters – – Defensive coordinator at Illinois

And of course, there is always the “tug at the heartstrings” candidate – – the guy who returns to his alma mater to right the ship.  This year, the opening at Colorado is a perfect fit for Eric Bienemy the offensive coordinator for the KC Chiefs.  Please note that sort of hiring does not always equate with success; Scott Frost returned to Nebraska as a knight in shining armor and he was the first coach fired this year.

Normally, this sort of thinking would happen after Thanksgiving and into the first week of December, but this has not been a normal college football season in lots of ways.  In addition to the coach firings to date consider:

• The CFP will happen without the presence of either Alabama or Clemson.

I did not see that coming back in August.

Finally, when a coach is fired, that means there has been a significant failure at one of the national collegiate institutions.  So, let me close with this observation by Groucho Marx that just might fit the mood in the coaching ranks today:

“No one is completely unhappy at the failure of his best friend.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Early in the MLB playoffs, I mentioned a Houston entrepreneur – – known as Mattress Mack – – who bet $10M on the Astros to win the World Series sometime before the end of the baseball regular season.  That winning bet will pay him a reported $75M and the Wall Street Journal says that is the largest legal wagering payoff on record.  The winner runs a furniture store in Houston and most of his payout will go to customers because he used his wager as a sales promotion:

• Customers who bought $3000 or more worth of furniture/mattresses/etc. from his store during a specified time will get all their money back now that the Astros won the Series.  In essence, those customers were betting on the Astros too.
• More than 18,000 people qualified for the refund so Mattress Mack is going to use most of his winnings paying out the refunds that were promised.

I have often mentioned here the “reader in Houston” who is a fountain of sports historical information and – – truth be told – – who is someone who has been known to place a wager now and then on a sporting event.  No, the “reader in Houston” is not Mattress Mack; but it came as no surprise at all to me when the “reader in Houston” told me that he and Mattress Mack were friends.

Next up … the FIFA World Cup is less than two weeks from its start and there is more news to report.  Recall that the authorities there have already warned people coming to Qatar for the games that public consumption or possession of alcohol is illegal in Qatar but that there will be “designated drinking areas” during the tournament.  Officials have warned fans coming for the games that they will be looking for people trying to smuggle alcohol into the country.

• Memo to World Cup fans:  Do not poke the bear; my sense is that these folks are very serious about this issue.  Does the name Brittney Griner mean anything to you?

But there is more.  Qatar has been sharply criticized by various human rights organizations over issues such as:

• Laws that discriminate against LGBTQ folks [Aside:  People who are in the LGBTQ community should read the Memo to World Cup fans above…]
• Dangerous and exploitative conditions for foreign workers who constructed tournament venues

Now, there are reports that the officials in Qatar are going to “compensate” certain fans to disseminate positive news and messages pertaining to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.  I have not found any reporting that states definitively how many fans will be “compensated” nor how much “compensation” they might receive for their positive postings, but reports do say that some of the fans who will be part of this effort come from European countries such as Belgium, France and Holland.  I did read one report that said the “compensation” would be in the form of reimbursed travel and lodging costs but did not find that level of specificity anywhere else.

There is an English word for painting a positive rosy picture by paying “reporters” to promulgate said positive rosy picture.  I believe that word is “propaganda”.  I am not saying here that one should automatically disbelieve any sort of “happy news” that comes from the FIFA World Cup games in Qatar, but I do think these reports should be an alert not to overreact to “positive news” and/or “negative news” that may originate from protest groups who may not be “compensated” for their “reporting” but who do have an axe to grind.

There is another soccer-related incident in motion this morning.  A former women’s soccer coach at Loyola-Marymount University has filed a wrongful termination suit against the school.  The coach alleges that she “encountered a split loyalty” from the players and the athletic staff from the time she was hired and that someone on the Athletic Department staff told the coach that he (the staff member) did not care if the women’s soccer team was successful or unsuccessful.  The lawsuit contains all the elements of suits of this genre including:

• Breach of contract
• Defamation
• Infliction of emotional distress
• Retaliation.

So, why is this matter interesting?  I was ready to send this report to the Recycle Bin until I read about the program at Loyola Marymount.  The coach was hired at the end of 2019.  In the abbreviated 2020 season the Lady Lions had a 1-7-1 record and the overall record for the team under the coach’s direction until she was fired in October 2021 was 1-26-1.  Do the math here…

Obviously, I have zero insight regarding the actions that resulted in the alleged injuries inflicted on the plaintiff here, but I am confident that I would not survive the voir dire process to be seated on the jury in this matter…

The other “coach firing” story of the moment is the Indy Colts firing Frank Reich after the Colts’ most recent loss.  Reich’s regular season record in Indy is 40-33-1 and it certainly seems to me that the reason fir his firing is that he has been unable to find wining ways with retread QBs.  Since taking over the job in 2018, Reich had Andrew Luck at QB for one season, but Luck retired at age 29 just before the 2019 season.  Since then, the Colts’ front office has been in a frenzy to replace Luck and here are the starting QBs they gave Reich to work with:

• Jacoby Brisset and Brian Hoyer in 2019
• Philip Rivers in 2020
• Carson Wentz in 2021
• Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger in 2022.

In addition to QB woes this year, the Colts have not had Jonathan Taylor at 100% for the whole season.  So, yes; the Colts are struggling, and their offense is woeful at best.  Nevertheless, I do not think that is entirely Frank Reich’s fault.  The Colts hand the job to Jeff Saturday as the interim coach.  Saturday was a Pro Bowl caliber player for the Colts; no one can deny his on-the-field credentials.  However, his coaching experience includes one entry; he was the head coach for Hebron Christian Academy.  I may not have NFL coaching credentials, but I am confident in saying that it is a big step up in complexity from Hebron Christian Academy to the NFL.

Bonne chance, Jeff Saturday.

Finally, since much of today’s rant dealt with the sport of soccer – – obliquely – – let me close with this definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Football:  An English sport in which the fans could kick the ass of just any of the players.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………