Author: Jack

When I was a kid, there was a nightly TV news program called the Camel News Caravan because it was sponsored by Camel cigarettes.  The host/reporter was John Cameron Swayze and every once in a while he would announce that he was “hopscotching the world for headlines”.  That was his lead-in to a bunch of reports on totally unrelated events where the reports were about two sentences in length.  This morning, I will go “hopscotching the sports world for headlines” with a tip of the hat to John Cameron Swayze instead of doing what I normally call “cleaning my clipboard”.

First, the NBA regular season has gotten to the point where teams are getting serious about every game; the sprint to the finish for playoff seeding has begun.  Moreover, there are new faces at or near the top of the standings in both conferences; and to me that presents two coaches who ought to finish at the top of the voting for Coach of the Year.

1. In the East, the NY Knicks are 39-28 this morning with 15 games left to play.  They have a chance to win 50 games this year – a longshot to be sure – but they have not been close to that level of achievement for the last decade.  In fact, the Knicks have had a losing record in 8 of the last 9 seasons.  Tom Thibodeau has the team playing hard and playing defense.
2. In the West, the Sacramento Kings are in second place this morning with a record of 38-26 with 18 games left on the schedule.  For perspective, the last time the Kings won more than 40 games was in the 2005-2006 season.  Mike Brown has the Kings playing disciplined basketball and team basketball.

Next up …  When Derek Carr signed with the Saints yesterday, it prompted me to look at the other three teams in the NFC South to assess their “QB situation”.  As of yesterday afternoon, those situations represented three levels of “bleak”.

• Atlanta Falcons:  Marcus Mariota is a free agent; they have two QBs on their roster this morning, Desmond Ridder and Logan Woodside.
• Carolina Panthers:  The Panthers have three QBs on their roster this morning, Matt Corral, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker.
• Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Bucs have three QBs on their roster this morning, Tom Brady (retired?), Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask.

So, I went to look at cap room for those teams and their draft positions.

• Atlanta Falcons:  They draft 7^th in the first round so they are within striking distance of a trade-up into the “QB Zone” if they want to do that.  And, the Falcons have about $62M in cap room according to Spotrac.com.  The Falcons have some flexibility here.
• Carolina Panthers:  They draft 8^th in the first round so they too are within striking distance of a trade-up into the “QB Zone” if they want to do that.  However, the Panthers are already slightly over the cap limit as of this morning meaning they would have to do a lot of juggling to play in the QB free agent market.
• Tampa Bay Bucs:  Assuming Tom Brady remains “retired”, the Bucs have a big problem.  They do not draft until 19^th; they are unlikely to be able to get anywhere near the “QB Zone” in this year’s draft.  Moreover, Spotrac.com says the Bucs are over the cap by almost $49M this morning meaning it may take more than juggling for them even to think about talking with a major free agent QB.

Switching gears … The Chicago Bears exercised their purchase option and closed on the purchase of what used to be Arlington International Racecourse in Arlington Heights, IL – – a northwest suburb of Chicago.  The Bears’ announced intention is to build a stadium on the land formerly occupied by the racetrack and also to develop the area with residential, commercial and hotel properties on site.  I can understand the team’s desire to play somewhere other than Soldier Field; that facility has already been “upgraded” once and yet it is outmoded and it is the smallest capacity stadium of any NFL team.  There are at least three significant questions facing the team:

1. Will the financing of the construction/development effort come together?  This is not something that will be done for “three easy payments of only $39.95”.  (Hat Tip to half the infomercials on TV at 3:00 AM.)
2. Given the nether world in which Chicago and Illinois politics exist, can this project jump through all the hoops that will be confronting it?
3. Will Bears’ fans follow the team to the new site?  Google Maps says it is close to 40 miles from Soldier Field to the old racetrack and it lists the driving time as anywhere between 45 minutes and 1 hour 20 minutes depending on traffic.

One more tidbit …  Recall that the members of the Angelos family – – owners of the Baltimore Orioles – – were suing each other over team control and purported draining of $65M from a family account.  Well, magically, all those problems resolved themselves without the need for any judicial intervention.  All the litigants withdrew their lawsuits – – with prejudice no less meaning they cannot be re-instituted later – – and there is once again peace and harmony in the valley.  Of course, that does make me wonder about the alleged “missing” $65M because that is not something that just magically appears and disappears.  Whatever …  Just sit back and enjoy all these folks singing Kumbaya in 3-part harmony.

Finally, since today began with a reference to the Camel News Caravan sponsored by Camel cigarettes, let me close with this observation:

“A camel can work all week without drinking … a man can drink all week without working.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There was plenty of “action” over the weekend in the world of NFL contracts and signings.  The deadline for applying “franchise tags” and “transition tags” is almost upon us but two QB signings over the weekend should have interesting repercussions around the league.  Yes, I know that QBs get too much credit for winning games and that they attract more attention than makes sense given that football is the ultimate team game.  Nevertheless, success in the NFL is far more tied to “having a good QB” than it is to “having a bad QB”.

The two signings I am referring to are:

1. Geno Smith re-signs with the Seahawks for 3 years and $105M
2. Derek Carr signs with the Saints for 4 years and $150M

Smith’s situation tells me that the “marketplace” for QBs in 2023 is what economists might call “rational”.  In 2022, Geno Smith had – by far – the best season of his career.; he was voted Comeback Player of the Year..  Smith came into the NFL in 2013 and in the ten years since then, he earned approximately $18M total as a backup/stopgap QB.  Starting in 2023, he will make an average of $35M per year or almost twice in one season what he made in the previous 10 years – – and I said that was “rational”.  Here’s why:

• Smith will be 33 years old in October.  This contract is only 3 years long; there is flexibility for both sides.  If 2022 was a huge anomaly in Smith’s career, the Seahawks are not going to be severely burdened by this contract for the long haul.  And if Smith is truly a “late-bloomer” who really has 7 or 8 top-shelf years ahead of him, he gets another shot at free agency at the end of the 2025 season.
• I have not found any report with the contract details as yet, so I do not know what the guaranteed money is or any of those nuances.  But in terms of the average salary in the deal, Geno Smith will make a little more than Kirk Cousins and a little less than Derek Carr on an annualized basis.  Looking only at last year, that may be a bargain for the Seahawks; looking his 10-year career, that is a bonanza for Geno Smith.
• And as a bonus for the decision makers in Seattle, re-signing Geno Smith means they do not have to go on a frantic QB search over the next 10 weeks.  They have a guy signed to the roster who “knows the system” and who “fits the system” in Seattle.
• Both sides win = “rational marketplace”.

The Darek Carr/New Orleans Saints deal is also “rational”.  Carr was released by the Raiders about a month ago; and as a free agent, he had the ability to pick the team he wanted to join at something less than a frenetic pace.  There were – – and still are – – QB-needy teams out there but Carr and his agent had the time to make their own decision(s) absent pressures and time deadlines.  Derek Carr will take an average annual pay cut in this deal; with the Raiders he was making just over $40M per year; with the Saints he will make $37.5M per year.  [Aside:  Cry me a river…]

• This is a good deal for the Saints because Derek Carr is a better QB in 2023 than the other guys on the Saints roster (Andy Dalton, Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston).  The team is not paying a top-shelf price for Carr and the length of the deal makes it such that the deal is done when Carr is about to turn 37 years old.
• Given the players currently signed to the rosters of the other NFC South teams, Derek Carr is clearly the best QB in the division.  That means this deal makes sense for the Saints and for Carr.
• Both sides win = “rational marketplace”.

The Derek Carr signing does, however, put the spotlight on the Las Vegas Raiders’ braintrust.  They need to get themselves a QB who will perform for them in 2023 at a level above the way Derek Carr plays for the Saints.  They need to accomplish that acquisition for more than just the obvious reason that they want to improve the team.  Consider:

• A year ago, they signed Carr to a contract extension.  They chose to do that; he was not a free agent.  In that deal that they negotiated, they gave Carr a full no-trade clause and they timed a huge roster bonus in the deal to mid-February of 2023.
• Once they decided that Carr was not “their guy” for the long-term, they had no choice but to release him once he made it clear that he would not waive his no-trade clause.
• Raiders’ fans may have a dim view of Derek Carr, but the reality is that the team will get a compensatory pick – possibly in the late 4^th round – for Carr this year and that is prima facie evidence that the Raiders’ braintrust wasted an asset.

And since I am on the subject of “signing QBs” today, let me throw a bizarre thought out there.  The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have been at a contract impasse for about a year now.  Some commentators say that the Ravens lack some leverage in those talks because they have built an offense that is designed around Jackson’s specific skill set as a “running QB” and would need to do major overhaul work were they to try to – or have to – replace him with a “pocket passer”.  Let me assume that those commentators have drawn a reasonable conclusion there.

The Bears need help in just about every part of the team; they have the overall #1 pick this year but there is no single player that is going to yank the Bears out of the situation they find themselves in today.  [Aside:  I checked; Bruce Banner has not entered the NFL Draft list.]  Moreover, the Bears reportedly have “about $100M in cap space” this year.  So … if the Bears would be amenable to meeting Lamar Jackson’s contract demands might it be a good idea to trade Lamar Jackson to the Bears for Justin Fields even up.

• The Ravens get a “running QB” to work into their system that is geared to that skill set.
• The Bears get the best QB they have had on their roster for at least the last 35 years and perhaps for the last 70 years – – AND – – then the Bears could trade back that overall #1 pick more than once to acquire players that can patch some glaring holes in the team roster.

OK, now that I have that out there, let me go and adjust my medication levels…

Finally, since I have spent today on rational marketplaces and economics in football, let me close with this observation from Stan Kroenke – – owner of the LA Rams:

“Economics is about creating win-win situations.  But in sports, someone loses.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

George Orwell portrayed a dystopian future in the novel, 1984.  As part of their daily routine, the people of Oceania spent two minutes every day proclaiming their hate for their perceived enemy of the state; they called it “The Two Minutes Hate.”  We don’t have anything nearly so frequent here in the cozy confines of Curmudgeon Central, but we do have an annual ritual that will be taken up today.

This is the day when I present myself for public scorn as I do a post-mortem on my NFL predictions prior to the recently concluded 2022 season.  It will probably take you about 5 minutes to read this so maybe we should consider it “The Five Minutes Scorn”.

I plan to go through the multiple sets of predictions from September 6, 2022 and grade myself the way grades used to be handed out when I was in college having to use reeds to take notes on papyrus.  At the end, I’ll calculate my “NFL-GPA” for the 2022 season.

The predictions began with 6 coaches on a hot seat:

1. Kliff Kingsbury (Cards):  He was fired.
2. Mike McCarthy (Cowboys):  I said it might take an appearance in the NFC Championship Game for him to keep his job.  The team made the playoffs and lost in the first round – – but McCarthy is still the coach in Dallas.  Call this a mistake; I over-estimated Jerry Jones’ itchy trigger finger.
3. Frank Reich (Colts):  He was fired in mid-season.
4. Ron Rivera (Commanders):  I said that I did not think he would be fired but that you never knew what could happen with Danny Boy in charge.  Well, Danny Boy chose in November to explore the option to sell the team, so there was no way he could fire Rivera after that because no coach would take the job not knowing who the next owner might be.  Call this one a “push”.
5. Matt Rhule (Panthers):  He was fired early on.
6. Robert Saleh (Jets):  I said he should not be fired but – like Rivera – he works for an organization that has a history of making bad decisions.  Fortunately, the Jets did well enough that any urge to move on from him was thwarted and he will be back in 2023.  Call this one a “push” too.

The only big error here was Mike McCarthy; the other two “predictions” were not really dependent on a major turn-around by the team.  I totally missed the Texans firing Lovie Smith; I am still amazed that the Texans’ “braintrust” thought it was “good optics” to fire two Black head coaches in two consecutive seasons.  I also totally whiffed on Nathanial Hackett’s melt-down in Denver with the Broncos.  I do not recall anyone predicting how over his head he appeared to be in the head coaching role.  He truly earned the moniker:

• Nathanial “Can’t” Hackett.

I give myself a grade of B + for the “Coaches on a Hot Seat.”

The second set of predictions involved six players that I thought would have to fight off Father Time in 2022.  I thought they would not live up to their previous levels of play as their careers were on a downward arc.

1. Calais Campbell:  His sack total in 2022 was significantly higher than it was in 2021 but his total number of tackles (36) in 14 games is significantly lower than back in the salad days of his career.  He fought Father Time to a stalemate.
2. Fletcher Cox:  I whiffed on that one; Cox increased his sack total and his total tackles in 2022 as compared to 2021.  He forced Father Time to back off.
3. Brandon Graham:  This was a totally bad prediction; Graham got votes as the Comeback Player of the Year and as an All-Pro.  The only word for my thinking in this case is “Fail”!
4. AJ Green:  His production dropped off and he announced his retirement in January 2023.
5. Alvin Kamara:  His rushing and receiving stats did not fall off a cliff, but they did not measure up to those of his “Pro Bowl” years in the past.  Also, he only scored 2 TDs in 15 games in 2022 while he had averaged about 9 TDs per season for the balance of his career.  He too fought Father Time to a stalemate.
6. JJ Watt:  He announced his retirement at the end of the 2022 season.

I totally missed on the two predictions about Eagles’ defensive linemen; I totally called AJ Green and JJ Watt; Campbell and Kamara were toss-ups relative to the predictions.

I give myself a C for “Players Versus Father Time.”

The next predictions involved teams that finished last in their division in 2021 and their chances to win that same division in 2022.  It was the “Worst-to-First” section of soothsaying.  I thought the Ravens had the best chance of going “Worst-to-First” if the Bengals had a “Super Bowl Hangover”.  Well, the Bengals did not have such a condition, but the Ravens did finish second to the Bengals in the AFC North.

There were two egregious errors in the commentary in that section, however.  Here is what I wrote then:

“Jaguars:  No way they win the AFC South”.  Well, the Jags did in fact win the AFC South in 2022.

And …

“Broncos:  The offense will certainly be better with Russell Wilson in place of Drew Lock and the defense is very good.  The AFC West is awfully tough, but the Broncos have a glimmer of hope there.”  Well, the Broncos’ offense was awful for most of 2022 and any “glimmer of hope” was extinguished by Thanksgiving when the team was 3-8-0.

I give myself an F for “Worst-to-First” predictions.

Before getting to the meat of these evaluations, I included some commentary on 3 teams that I thought would “be less than mediocre because I do not think they have any plan on how to get better.”   Those three teams were:

1. Bears:  They were “less than mediocre” and are picking first in the Draft in April.
2. Falcons:  They were 7-10 for the season but finished last in the miserable NFC South.  I said they had a bad situation at QB and that certainly turned out to be the case.
3. Panthers:  They too were 7-10 for the season in the miserable NFC South.  They fired their coach early in the season and traded away their best offensive player looking to “start over” in 2023.

I suggest that I called those three situations correctly – – albeit none of the situations were very opaque.

I give myself a B+ for these predictions on these three teams.

Now we get to the specific team predictions and I will start in the AFC West:

• Chargers:  I had the Chargers at 12-5 for the season on top of the division; they finished 10-7 and second in the division.  I thought their defense was going to be better in 2022 but it was still the part of the team that was a weak link.  Even with their 10-7 record, their point differential for the year was a measly 7 points.
• Chiefs:  I had the Chiefs’ record as 11-6 for the season and second in the division.  I thought that the loss of 3 members of the Chiefs’ WR corps would hurt the offense more than it obviously did; the Chiefs finished at 14-3 and proceeded to win the Super Bowl in February.
• Broncos:  Here was a real blunder; I thought the trade for Russell Wilson was going to make the Broncos into a formidable opponent because the defense was so good.  I said they would finish 10-7 which is not even close to their actual record of 5-12.
• Raiders:  I had the Raiders at 9-8 for the season and they finished 6-11.  I did cite, however, that the Raiders’ defense would be a team weakness and that certainly was the case in 2022.

I give myself a D for the AFC West predictions.  If you think I deserve an “F”, I will not argue too strenuously against your assertion.

Next, we shall move to the AFC North:

• Ravens:  I had the Ravens at 11-6 and winning the division; the actual record was 10-7 and the Ravens finished second.  Having Lamar Jackson miss 5 games late in the season did not help the Ravens’ cause at all.
• Bengals:  I had the Bengals at 10-7 for the season finishing second in the division and suffering from “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome”.  Actually, the Bengals finished 12-4 – – the “missing game” being the one involving the Bills and Damar Hamlin.
• Steelers:  I had the Steelers finishing 9-8 and third in the division.  That is exactly what happened…
• Browns:  I had the Browns finishing 7-10 and last in the division.  That is exactly what happened.

I give myself an A for the AFC North predictions.  I got two of the teams’ records and position in the race correct and missed on the Ravens record by only one game,

Moving along to the AFC South: 

• Colts:  I said the Colts would win the division with a 10-7 record and that Matt Ryan would be a significant upgrade at QB from Carson Wentz.  Actually, the Colts finished the season at 4-12-1; they fired their coach early on; Matt Ryan was benched for a couple of games to give Sam Ehlinger a shot at the job.
• Titans:  I thought they would go 8-9 and finish second in the division; they had a 7-10 record and indeed finished second.  Even a blind squirrel …
• Jags:  I had the Jags going 6-11 for the season and finishing third in the AFC South.  That would have been a significant improvement over 2021 and the “Urban Meyer Era” in Jax, but the team really over-achieved and finished 9-8 to win the division and go to the playoffs.
• Texans:  I had the Texans record at 4-13 putting them last in the division.  Their record was 3-13-1 which is close.  I can pretend that calling the Texans to finish 4^th in the division was a “good call”; frankly, it was never really in doubt.

I give myself a D for the AFC South.  The predictions for the Titans and the Texans were close – – but the other two predictions were too far off-base to allow for anything more than such a grade.

The last AFC division is the AFC East:

• Bills:  I had the Bills winning the division with a 14-3 record.  They won the division with a 13-3 record – – the missing game is the “Damar Hamlin Game”.
• Dolphins:  I had the Dolphins in second place in the division at 9-8.  That is exactly how things turned out.
• Pats:  I had the Pats tied for second pace with the Dolphins at 9-8.  The Pats finished third in the division with an 8-9 record.
• Jets:  I had the Jets finishing last in the division at 6-11.  The Jets finished last in the division at 7-10.

I give myself an A for the AFC East.  The crystal ball was in working order for that part of the predictions.

It is time to move along to the NFC predictions and I will begin with a review of some bad predictions in the NFC West:

• Rams:  Yes, I had the Rams winning this division with a record of 11-6.  Actually, they finished third with a 5-12 record.  In my defense, I did say that Matthew Stafford’s elbow tendinitis could be a significant problem for the Rams and I said that the Rams’ OL would not be as good in 2022 as it had been in 2021.  Both problems surfaced and produced disastrous results – – along with an early season injury to Cooper Kupp.
• Niners:  I had the Niners in a tie with the Rams in the division at 11-6; the Niners won the division in a cakewalk with a record of 13-4.  My prediction was close for all the wrong reasons.  I assumed that Trey Lance would perform the way an overall #3 pick should perform once he was deemed “Sunday-ready” by the coaches.  Trey Lance lasted less than a game; Jimmy G and Brock Purdy led the charge for the Niners, and I never had that sort of situation in mind for the team.
• Cards:  I had the Cards at 9-8 in third place in the division.  The Cards finished last and had a record of 4-13.  Yes, they lost Kyler Murray for part of the season, but even with him on the field, they never really looked like a team that was going to finish above .500.
• Seahawks:  I thought the Seahawks would go 5-12 and finish way behind everyone else in the division.  Actually, the Seahawks finished 9-8 in second place in the division and made the playoffs.

I give myself an F for the NFC West.  The only prediction what was close to correct was the record for the Niners and that prediction came to pass for all the wrong reasons.  Yuck …!

Next, we shall move to the NFC North:

• Packers:  I thought they would go 12-5 and win the division because I thought Aaron Rodgers would play the way Aaron Rodgers had been playing over the past couple of years.  That was not even close to the case until it was too late for the Packers to make a playoff run; they finished third in the division with an 8-9 record despite winning 4 of their last 5 games in the regular season.
• Vikes:  I had the Vikes with a 10-7 record in second place in the division.  The Vikes went 13-4 and ran away with the division.
• Lions:  I had the Lions going 5-12 and finishing third in the division; they went 9-8 and finished second ahead of the Packers.  In my defense, I did say that they would be improved over 2021 and that they had an impressive young receiving corps and that Aiden Hutchinson would be a stud.  All of that came to pass but I underestimated how significant those improvements would be.
• Bears:  I had the Bears going 4-13 for the season and they actually went 3-14.  That was the best prediction for the division back in September.  Not good …

I give myself an F for the NFC North.

Moving along to the NFC South:

• Bucs:  I had the Bucs winning the division with a 12-5 record.  They did win the division but with a record of only 8-9.  The Bucs were merely the least worst team in the NFC South.
• Saints:  I had the Saints in second place with a 9-8 record.  The Saints had the same record as the other three teams in the division at 7-10.
• Panthers:  I had the Panthers finishing third with an 8-9 record.  The Panthers also finished at 7-10.  I thought the addition of Baker Mayfield would be a lot more positive for the team than the acquisition turned out to be.
• Falcons:  I had the Falcons finishing last in the division at 4-13.  The Falcons finished at 7-10.  I did, however, say that the team counting on Marcus Mariota to be “the guy” at QB was not a way to plan for success.  I was right about that, but I overestimated how marginal the Falcons’ offense would be.

I give myself a D for the NFC South.

And finally, we move to the NFC East:

• Eagles:  I had them winning the division with a 10-7 record.  Obviously, they flew past that record and posted a conference best record at 14-3.  However, my team analysis had accurate points.  I said the additions of AJ Brown and Hassan Reddick were major pluses for the team.  Here is a quote from last September:

“The OL is excellent; the DL has the potential to be very good.  The question mark is Jalen Hurts.  He showed plenty of improvement as the season progressed last year but there is no way one might consider him a Top-15 QB in the league as this season begins.  But if he plays to that sort of level, the Eagles will be hosting a playoff game in January 2023.”

Jalen Hurts played well into the ranks of a “Top 15 QB” and indeed that led to the Eagles hosting two games in the NFC playoffs and a spot in the Super Bowl.

• Cowboys:  I had the Cowboys in second place in the division with a 9-8 record.  The Cowboys were indeed in second place but their record was 12-5.  I said then that the Cowboys’ OL would be a team weakness – – and it was.
• Commanders:  I had the Commanders in third place in the division with a 7-10 record.  Actually, they finished last in the division at 8-8-1.  I said in September that losing Brandon Scherff to the Jags in free agency was a bad thing for the team; and indeed, the Commanders’ OL was a significant weakness all season long.
• Giants:  I had the Giants finishing last in the division with a 6-10 record; they finished third at 9-7-1.

I give myself an A for the NFC East.

So, I have given out 12 grades today.  Using the old system of 4-points for an A and 3-points for a B and 3.5 points for a B + and so on, my “NFL-GPA” = 2.0.  Hey, if I were an NCAA athlete, I would retain eligibility with that GPA.

Finally, since everything here relates to NFL football, let me close today with this observation about football by George F. Will:

“Football defines the two worst features of American life.  It is violence punctuated by committee meetings.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I am back from a great visit with old friends in the Phoenix AZ area and the opportunity to see 3 Spring Training baseball games.  It was an enjoyable time all around and I got a chance to do some “research”.  When a reader knew of my plans for earlier this week, he sent a note wishing me safe travels and said he would “look forward to reading what you think of new baseball rules.”  This is not a disc-jockey show; nevertheless, I am open to requests from the audience; so, I took that as a reason to take some notes during the games.

The goal of the new MLB rule changes is two-fold:

1. Shorten the total time from first pitch to final out.
2. Pack more “baseball action” into the time of the game.

So, here is the methodology of my “research”:

• I broke each game into “thirds” and timed the start of each third and the final out of the game.
• I also recorded the gross results of each third – – and by extension for the entire game.
• I tracked things that can slow down the game such as pitcher changes within an inning.
• I recorded any violations of the new pitch clock.
• I recorded any base stealing attempts – – and successes – – because the larger bases are supposed to encourage that “action-creating strategy.”

Now, let me be sure to lay out clearly the limitations of my “research”:

• Clearly this is a small sample size.
• These are Spring Training games not critical games in a playoff run.

The “Bottom Line” for my “research” is that the games move faster than before and there is more action packed into the compressed playing time.  For the 3 games I saw, that is clear and obvious to me; here are my data:

Guardians 12 Cubs 4: 

• Total elapsed time for the game was 2 hours and 46 minutes.
• The combined run line for the two teams was 16 runs, 21 hits, 5 errors
• There were 3 pitching changes within an inning and 1 mound conference
• The teams combined to attempt 6 stolen bases and were successful 3 times.
• There were no “clock violations” in the game.
• The Guardians attempted a hit-and-run once.
• [Aside:  Roman Quinn hit 2 home runs in this game.]

Padres 7 Giants 5:

• Total elapsed time for the game was 2 hours and 24 minutes
• The combined run line for the two teams was 12 runs, 15 hits, no errors.
• There were no pitching changes within an inning and no mound conferences.
• The teams combined to attempt 3 stolen bases and all three were successful.
• There was 1 “clock violation” on the pitcher in the game.
• [Aside:  There were 3 wild pitches in the game including 2 wild pitches in the same half-inning.]

Royals 8 Rockies 6:

• Total elapsed time for the game was 2 hours and 54 minutes.
• The combined run line for the two teams was 14 runs, 21 hits, 3 errors.
• There were 3 pitching changes within an inning and 3 mound conferences.  Moreover, one pitching change happened due to an injury to the pitcher so the reliever called in was not timed for his warm-ups.
• The teams combined to attempt 8 stolen bases and all 8 were successful including a steal of home.
• The Royals attempted 1 hit-and-run.
• There was 1 “clock violation” on the pitcher in the game.
• [Kris Bryant hit a home run that probably did not come down for 3 days.]

Here are the two “activities” that seem to have been minimized so far as my 3-game sample indicates:

1. Hitters either avoid adjusting their batting gloves entirely or they do it much more quickly than they did in the past.
2. Pitchers spend a lot less time either walking around on or near the mound with the ball in their hand and/or staring menacingly at the hitter/catcher.

The rule change about reducing the extreme shift – – requiring two infielders to be on either side of second base and for infielders to be on the infield dirt when the pitcher starts his motion – – did not seem odious and there were a couple of singles through the infield that would likely have been ground outs had the extreme shift been deployed.  Even though I run the risk of being labeled a “revisionist” by those who resist changes to the rules of baseball, I think these new rule changes are good for the game.

Finally, let me close today with this view of baseball from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Baseball:   A spectator sport known as ‘the great American pastime’ largely because so much time passes while waiting for each game to end.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There is an ongoing mess in Las Cruces, NM these days and it has nothing to do with “problems at the southern border”.  New Mexico State University first suspended its new head basketball coach, Greg Heiar, and subsequently fired him and then the school has cancelled the remaining the games scheduled for its men’s basketball team for the rest of the season.  The Aggies will forfeit all of their remaining games.  Obviously, something rather drastic happened in and around that basketball team.

The current problem involves “hazing incidents”.  Press reports – – based on police reports – – say that three players on the basketball team may have been involved in activities that could be:

1. False imprisonment
2. Harassment
3. Criminal sexual contact

The alleged victim in this matter is a teammate of the three players who may have hit that trifecta of potential offenses.  According to the police report the three alleged aggressors

” … held [the victim] down with him facing down, removed his clothing exposing his buttocks and began to ‘slap his ass.’ [The victim] also went on to state that they also touched his scrotum.”

This is not the lone outrageous event involving this year’s New Mexico State basketball team.  In November 2022, the Aggies were in Albuquerque to play New Mexico; one of the players was out and about after curfew and was attacked by 4 students from New Mexico.  That player had or came into possession of a gun and in the melee he shot and killed a freshman student at New Mexico.  The police considered that this was a case of self-defense but there was one interesting loose thread to that story:

• The gun was eventually found in the hotel room of one of the Aggies assistant basketball coaches.

If River City Iowa thought it had “Trouble – with a capital T” in the movie the Music Man, then I guess Las Cruces has “TROUBLE – all in caps” these days…

In college football news, there is still some speculation that the PAC-12 Conference may implode.  Certainly, the conference was severely damaged by the loss of USC and UCLA to the Big 10; those schools were nationally recognized to a greater extent than the other schools and those two schools presence in Los Angeles brought a lot of media desirability to PAC-12 athletic broadcast rights.  Now, according to various reports, the PAC-12 is having difficulty selling its broadcast rights for what it considers to be the minimum it can take for those rights to keep the conference afloat.

According to one report I read, the Big-12 is interested in poaching the “Four Corners Schools” (Arizona, Arizona St. Colorado and Utah) from the PAC-12 to expand the Big-12 to 16 teams.  If that were to happen, the six teams of the PAC-12 North  would be in a bad situation.  Perhaps Washington and Oregon might find a perch in a conference of consequence but Washington St., Oregon St., Stanford and Cal would be left to try to cobble some sort of meaningful relationship out west with the likes of:

• Boise St.
• Fresno St.
• San Diego St. (rumored to be a PAC-12 recruit already)
• SMU (rumored to be a PAC-12 recruit already)

That would be an 8-team conference with very few intriguing pieces beyond the annual Cal/Stanford game.  And even if Washington and Oregon remained in some sort of 10-team conference, it would be clearly last on the pecking order of the “Power 5”.  [Aside:  You would not have difficulty in convincing me that the “Power 5” had devolved into the “Power 4”.]

The PAC-12 is not in good shape; were it a person, it would not be quite ready for admission to the ICU, but it would have already been admitted to a hospital.  If the rumors come to pass that the quartet of “Four Corner Schools” split and head elsewhere, then the conference that used to like to call itself “The Conference of Champions”, will fade into memory.

Finally, a friend forwarded me an excerpt from a letter written by Ernest Hemmingway in 1952 to an art historian, Bernard Berenson.  This has to do with symbolism in Hemmingway’s novel, The Old Man and the Sea.  I wish I had known about this letter when I was in 12^th grade English class:

“There isn’t any symbolism.  The sea is the sea.  The old man is an old man.  The boy is a boy and the fish is a fish.  The sharks are all sharks no better and no worse.  All the symbolism that people say is shit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A report at CBSSports.com said that there should be a lively discussion at the annual meeting of the NCAA Football Rules Committee meeting starting next Monday in Indy.  Supposedly, an item on the table is to allow the clock to continue running when a team makes a first down instead of stopping the clock until the linesman sets the chains and the ball for the next play.  Letting the clock run has been the rule in the NFL all along; the college rule to stop the clock was instituted in 1968.

Based on some calculations, stopping the clock on first down plays could reduce the average number of plays in a game by 8-10 plays per game and one of the arguments for taking on that reduction is an appeal to “player safety”.  Of course, the likelihood of serious injury to any player remains unchanged for any specific play that is run, but by running fewer plays per game over the thousands of college football games played in a season, the injury risk is lowered.

The fact is that limiting injuries – – or at least trying to minimize them with rule changes/improvements – – can also limit the liability of teams, conferences and the NCAA itself given the litigious nature of US society in 2023.  I am sure that advocates for this rule change will wrap themselves in that cloak of righteousness during the upcoming “lively discussion”.

I was unaware that a similar rule change was considered by this Committee last  year and it was rejected.  On balance, I prefer the NFL way of keeping time and I would vote for the rule change not only in the hopes of limiting liability exposure but also to keep a lid on the length of games.  Many critics of MLB complain that games are too long – – and indeed nine inning games that take 3 hours and 45 minutes or even 4 hours are in fact too long.  However, major college football games always run 3 hours and 30 minutes and sometimes can run for more than 4 hours.  Both sports can use a little more giddy-up.

Among the college football power brokers, there is a sense that college football should not always emulate the NFL in terms of rules and regulations; there are some who want to maintain this kind of distinction between the two games simply to maintain a distinction.  Personally, I think that sort of reasoning is shallow; but I understand that it is an important position for some folks.

Kirby Smart is currently the only coach from a “Power 5 Conference” on the rules committee which seems awfully unbalanced to me.  Here is what he has had to say about the issue of “shrinking the college game” in the past:

“Our big brother in this world of football is the NFL.  So much of what we do is modeled off what they do. They spend a lot, a lot, a lot of money to get it right. They’ve shrunk their game into a time frame that is probably a little bit tighter window than ours.

“They’re also trying to limit exposures as well, although they have a longer season, and they have added games to that season. It’s a big decision. We are dealing with student-athletes. I think it starts with that. I wouldn’t sit up here and say I’m favor of shrinking the game. I do think our game has gotten long and there are a lot of plays.”

That sounds to me like a person who has not made up his mind on the issue before hearing the proponents present their case; and if I am correct in that assessment, then Kirby Smart is living up to his surname.

One other aspect of the college game needs to be considered if in fact the safety/liability issues are paramount here.  Maybe someone needs to think about rules to limit hurry-up offenses in the college game at the Division 1-A level.  Consider these data from the CBSSports.com report on this issue:

• Last year, the Tampa Bay Bucs led the NFL in average number of plays per game (68.8 plays per game).
• That average would have put the Bucs 85^th on the list of 131 Division 1-A college football teams in terms of plays per game.
• Texas Tech had the highest number of plays per game last year in college football (89.2 plays per game).

If the rules committee can find a way to thread the needle here to reduce the number of plays in a game along with keeping the games in a reliable three-and-a-half hour time window for TV, they will have earned whatever stipend they get for serving on this body.  I don’t pretend to have all the answers here, but I do appreciate that this is a thorny problem.

Finally, let me close today with one of my dwindling inventory of comments by Dwight Perry from his days with the Seattle Times:

“Mike Tyson and Evander Holyfield have teamed up to form an unlikely cannabis partnership to sell ear-shaped edibles called ‘Holy Ears.’

“So what’s next, Tonya Harding and Nancy Kerrigan teaming up to pitch billyclubs called ‘Knee Cappers’”?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

After writing yesterday about the Raiders’ dealings with Darek Carr, I read a report in the NY Post that said the Jets and Carr met over the weekend and that the meeting was “positive”.  As I noted yesterday, because the Raiders released him, Carr is currently a free agent and can sign with any team that makes him an offer as opposed to other QBs whose contracts are expiring.  Carr would be a definite upgrade at QB for a team that:

• Has not been in the playoffs since 2010.
• Has a good defense
• Seriously needs an upgrade at QB.

I have said before that the last top-shelf QB the Jets had was Joe Namath; Carr is not a mortal lock to make the Hall of Fame as was Namath, but if I were a Jets’ fan, here is how I might look at the situation as of this morning:

• In 2010, the Jets made the playoffs, won 2 games and lost in the AFC Championship Game to the Steelers.  Mark Sanchez was the QB in 2010.
• Sanchez was still the Jets’ starting QB for all of 2011 but the Jets missed the playoffs.
• In 2012, there was the infamous “Butt-Fumble Incident”, and Sanchez was pretty much run out of town.  He started 15 games; Greg McElroy started the other one that year.

So, as the 2013 season began, the Jets were two seasons removed from an appearance in the AFC Championship Game but they were in search of a new starting QB to lead the offense.  That search continues until this day; the starting QB position for the Jets since the start of 2013 has looked like the clown car in the circus.  In alphabetical order, here are the eleven Jets’ starting QBs over the last 10 seasons:

1. Sam Darnold  (38 games)
2. Luke Falk  (2 games)
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick  (27 games)
4. Joe Flacco  (9 games)
5. Josh McCown  (16 games)
6. Bruce Petty  (7 games)
7. Trevor Siemian  (1 game)
8. Geno Smith  (30 games)
9. Michael Vick  (3 games)
10. Mike White  (7 games)
11. Zack Wilson  (22 games)

I assert that a Jets’ fan should look at that list and recognize that Derek Carr is an upgrade over the mélange of starting QBs the Jets have trotted out for the last decade…

Enough about Derek Carr already …  Deion Sanders – – Coach Prime if you will – – remains in the news.  Last week, he appeared on The Rich Eisen Show and obviously spoke about the Colorado football program that he just took over in language that is not common among football coaches.  What does he look for in players for the O-Line and at QB?

“Smart, tough, fast, disciplined with character. We want mother, father. Dual parent. We want that kid to be 3.5 [GPA] and up. Because he has to be smart. Not bad decisions off the field, at all. Because he has to be a leader of men.”

Now, how about recruits for the D-Line:

“Defensive lineman is totally opposite. Single mama, trying to get it, he’s on free lunch; I’m talking about just trying to make it. He’s trying to rescue mama. Like mama barely made the flight. And I want him to just go get it.”

A few commentors on reports about these statements have suggested that Sanders’ remarks were prejudicial similar to ones made by Al Campanis and/or Jimmy the Greek and that those folks lost their jobs and their credibility based on their remarks.  I do not see it that way although I will admit that the metaphor Sanders chose to use could be a sensitive one for some in the African-American community.

Deion Sanders has always said things in ways that most other folks do not going back to his days as a player.  I do not think he is a bigot and I do not think he meant some backhanded slap at the family situations for some of his recruits at Colorado.  To demonstrate what I mean by Sanders’ proclivity to say things “differently”, compare his statements about what the Colorado team will be like next year as compared to what someone like Nick Saban might say about next year’s Alabama squad:

“It’s a whole different attribute that you look for in different positions. And we have that stuff just chronicled. We know what we want, and we go get it … We’re not recruiting just no ordinary Tom, Dick and Harry.  We recruited some guys that can light up the scoreboard and prevent touchdowns from occurring. We’re coming. We’re serious about that.  Hope is in the house. Hope is in the air. Hope is in the city. Hope is in the community.”

Beat reporters for Colorado football in Denver and in Boulder will not lack for raw material over the next few years no matter the team’s record.

Finally, let me close today with an entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Longfellow, Henry Wadsworth:  Nineteenth-century American poet most famous for Paul Revere’s Ride, which set its author the challenge of how to make glaring historical inaccuracies rhyme.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I got to see a few minutes of two XFL games over the weekend and I did see a couple of recognizable players on the field.  The two games I tuned into were close ones so if I had had the time, I would have stayed to see more game action even though the level of play was “spotty”.  I did a little digging this morning into teams and rosters and have this observation:

• Even though you may say to yourself, “Who’s he?” when  you look at the players on the roster, you will easily recognize many coaches in the XFL.  Obviously, most XFL players hope to use the league as a means to “graduate” into the NFL; those players have coaches who know what it takes to play top-quality football.

I did not do an exhaustive search, but here are some of the XFL coaches:

• Terrell Buckley
• Jim Haslett
• Wade Phillips
• Bob Stoops
• Hines Ward
• Rod Woodson

I will need to adapt my thinking about game strategy for XFL games because of a significant rule difference in that league as compared to college or NFL football.  In college or the NFL, a 17-point lead is a 3-posession game for the training team; in the XFL, there is an option for a 3-point conversion meaning that a 17-point lead can be overcome in 2 possessions not three.  [Aside:  A 3-point conversion attempt is a single play from the 10-yardline.]  It’s not something that is going to happen frequently, but it might alter some in-game strategy decisions.

I have no idea if this third incarnation of the XFL will succeed or even if it will survive to play again in 2024.  However, 2023 is going to be an interesting test of the American appetite for football because just as the XFL exits the scene in late April, the USFL will kick off its resurrection season and carry on to some playoffs that will bring their brand of football into early July.  Here are the events that will confront both leagues as they seek to capture a fanbase during their active seasons:

• XFL 3.0:  Opens in the shadow of the Super Bowl; MLB Spring Training;  NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments; NFL free-agency rumors and signings; March Madness; MLB Opening Day; The Masters.
• USFL 2.0:  The NFL Draft; Triple Crown races, NBA Playoffs; Stanley Cup Playoffs; the CFL regular season.

And then, after the USFL bows out for 2023, there will be about 3 weeks of “downtime” before the NFL teams report to training camp.  I don’t know how all of this will shake out but I will be surprised if this “football menu” is sustainable in terms of fan interest.

Moving on …  The Las Vegas Raiders released QB, Derek Carr last week making him a free agent.  There has been a lot of vocal praise for that move among Raiders’ fanboys on social media and it may turn out to be a move that benefits the team somewhere down the road.  But let me add a cautionary note here:

• Three key players in the Raiders’ braintrust are Mark Davis, Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels.
• Ten months ago, that triumvirate gave Derek Carr a contract extension AND they included a no-trade clause in that contract extension.
• That no-trade clause – along with the timing of bonus payments to Carr – allowed Carr to decide on his own if he wanted to be traded or released.  He chose to be released and to become a free agent meaning the Raiders will only get a compensatory draft pick in exchange for a starting QB in the NFL
• Those same three people are going to “fix” the Raiders’ “QB problem” …

I will not even remotely suggest that Derek Carr is great QB but I will also not pay any attention to any disgruntled Raiders’ fanboy who asserts that Carr is not competent to play QB in the NFL for anyone.  Derek Carr has been selected to the Pro Bowl 4 times in his career; if you want to see QB play that is clearly below the NFL level, please tune into some XFL games next weekend.  Just for giggles, I checked out the QB situations for the other 31 NFL teams this morning and asked myself a simple question:

• Is Derek Carr better than what those other guys have at the QB position this morning?

Here are the results of my “poll”:

• I think Derek Carr is better than whoever is the starter for 14 teams.
• I think Derek Carr is worse than whoever is the starter for 14 teams.
• I think Derek Carr and whoever is the starter for 4 teams would be a toss-up.

So, the bottom line is that Derek Carr is an average NFL QB and the Raiders’ braintrust managed the situation – – the one that they created – – such that they get bupkes in return for an asset.

Obviously, I have no insight as to where Derek Carr will be playing next season but reports say that he has already visited the Saints and has a visit with the Jets on tap for this week.  I think he would represent a significant upgrade at that position for either of those teams.

What do the Raiders do for a QB next season?  There is lots of speculation that the Raiders will try to acquire Aaron Rodgers – – once Rodgers emerges from his sensory deprivation chamber with newly acquired hallucinogenic insights into who he is and what he is on Earth to accomplish.  If the Raiders can pull that off without having to pay too high a price to the Packers in exchange for Rodgers, then the Raiders will come out of this turmoil in good shape.  But that outcome is nowhere near the status of a “lead pipe cinch” …

Finally, since Raiders’ fans will need to trust their team execs and owner to get things right this time, let me close with this thought from Alfred, Lord Tennyson:

“Oh yet we trust that somehow good

Will be the final goal of ill.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

 

Tim McCarver died yesterday at the age of 81.  McCarver had a 21-year career in the major leagues from 1959 through 1980.  After that playing career he became a broadcaster/color analyst for MLB games that saw him cover 23 World Series and that second career earned him enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame as a broadcaster.  He was  very good at what he did – – and he had a self-deprecating sense of humor.

I think he was a guest on David Letterman’s late night show when he told this story about himself.  It was in the mid-60s and he was catching Bob Gibson in a game where Gibson was not having a good outing; batters were hitting him hard and Gibson’s fierce competitiveness was showing .  McCarver said he went out to the mound to try to get Gibson to calm down and get back into his groove but Gibson was having none of that.  Gibson told McCarver to get back where he belongs because the only thing McCarver knew about good pitching was that he (McCarver) could not hit it.  McCarver said he trotted back to home plate so that everyone in the stands would think that he and Gibson had had a constructive exchange and that Gibson was going to settle down.

Rest in peace, Tim McCarver

Earlier this week, I wrote about the start of Spring Training as my tried-and-true harbinger of Spring.  I enjoy baseball and I particularly enjoy spending a warm summer evening in the stands at a baseball game.  However, I also am a bit apprehensive about the future of the game.  I read a report that said that in 2022 the average age of a person watching baseball on TV approached 60 years old.  And therein lies the source of my apprehension.

Sports in the 2020s – and presumably in the 2030s too – survive and grow based on TV audiences.  The Super Bowl had 113 million viewers; that is THE reason why advertisers paid FOX enough money for ad slots last Sunday that FOX could expect to clear $500M for the day.  MLB cannot come close to that and that fact shows up in other places.

Six months ago, there were two MLB franchises openly up for sale (Angels and Nats) and given the ownership tension that existed in Baltimore six months ago, the O’s might have been available for the right price.  Today, the Angels are off the market.  You may believe if you will that the reason is the owner there considers that he has unfinished business with the team and the city – – winning a World Series – – or perhaps after a year on the market the owner learned that none of the bids was going to come close to his asking price.  Maybe it is a little of both, but I suspect that “insufficient bids” is a real issue there.

The Nats remain on the market but let us just say that there has not been a stampede of billionaires to the Nats’ offices seeking to pour over the team’s business records.  If Forbes is correct, the Lerner family will make a tidy profit selling the team for $2B.  However, in the same designated marketing area of DC/Maryland/Virginia, the Washington Commanders will likely sell for something between $6B and $7B.  Moreover, there are indeed billionaires lining up to see the team’s books and records.

I believe there were two factors at work in the last 40 years or so that put baseball in the situation that exists today:

1. Complacency:  I think that the owners and the execs who ran the game of baseball convinced themselves that the historical significance of baseball as a part of American culture would never be seriously challenged.  They were very wrong.  As American culture tilted toward activities that involved shorter attention spans, MLB games lasting three-and-a-half hours or more fell out of favor quickly.  [Aside:  Ironically the games were too slow and the popularity dropped very fast.]
2. Labor/Management Power Imbalance:  Unions and management are always going to be at odds; that is axiomatic.  When either side is “too dominant” things get out of hand and the dominance of the MLBPA did not benefit baseball as an industry.  I know that anything is possible but can you imagine a situation where in mid-December with a few regular season games to play and with the playoffs and Super Bowl in plain sight, the NFL players would walk out and refuse to finish the season?  The MLBPA did the equivalent of just that in 1994; that did not help “the game”.

Finally, in 2022, MLB will use the pitch clock.  This has been “an experiment” in minor league baseball for at least the last 5 seasons and last year it shortened the average minor league game by about 20 minutes.  It is a fair question to ask the folks who run MLB and the MLBPA the following simple question:

• What took so long?

It is not as if slow pace of play and the tedium of 4-hour games in mid-season were unknown hinderances to the games.  There has been ample commentary on those sorts of issues for at least the last 20 years and maybe 25 years.  And it is that last point that makes me worry the most about the future of baseball as something other than a niche sport.  There will be a half-dozen or so new rules in effect for 2022 with the intent to increase the pace and the action of the games.  Odds are that these rules will not be perfect such that they can be written in stone and left alone for the next hundred years; odds are they will need modification and change.  And if I am right about that, then baseball as a game cannot wait for these folks to take forever to make said modifications/changes.  Yet, the same folks are in charge in MLB and the MLBPA who took forever to bring us the new rules in 2022.

Future behavior is best predicted by past behavior…

Finally, almost 70 years ago – when baseball was king – the historian Jacque Barzun wrote:

“Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball, the rules and realities of the game – and do it by watching first some high school or small-town teams.”

Would anyone write that in 2022?

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………