Author: Jack

Lots of people have reacted negatively to the revelations of sign stealing by Connor Stallions on behalf of University of Michigan football.  A few folks – – like Coach Prime – – have minimized what happened; Sanders said even if you know what play is coming, you have to stop it.  Now another “prominent voice” has been added to the “minimizing choir”; OJ Simpson said:

“All the talk of stealing of signs at Michigan. You know, I looked at Michigan play. They’re so good they don’t really need to steal signs,”

Well, there you have it.  Case closed.  Move along … nothing to see here.

For those other folks who might still think there is more investigating to do, let me suggest that the remedy to this sort of nefarious activity can be summarized in two words:

• Wearable technology.

If coaches used transmitters and players wore receivers, play calling on offense and defense could be accomplished without the need for any overt signaling.  Even a minor level of encryption on the signals would make the process secure.  The equipment need not be nearly as sophisticated as an Apple watch; it does not need Internet connectivity or picture taking capabilities; all it must do is receive a transmission and alert the player who receives the signal as to his assignment on the next play.

Moving on …  I read yesterday that ten different rookie QBs have started games in the NFL so far in 2023 and that is an all-time record.  The first thing that came to mind was:

• This stat probably contributes to the decline in offense around the league in 2023 both in scoring and yardage gained categories.

Then as I let my mind wander around the league thinking about QBs and rookie QBs, it settled on 5 teams whose QB situation seems dire to me.  So, let me explain:

• Bears:  The Bears have had a “QB situation” for about the last 70 years – – save for those years when Jay Cutler was the QB and fans in Chicago shifted their focus to wondering how a player with such talent could be as ineffective as he was.  This was to be the year the team learned if Justin Fields was “the guy”; we are halfway through the 2023 season and the Bears have no more of an inkling as to the answer there than they did back in August.  The kneejerk solution according to fans is to “Draft another QB in April”.  Well, the Bears have done that 4 times in the last 25 years and come up with this quartet of QBs:
  • • • Cade McNown
      • Rex Grossman
      • Mitchell Trubisky’
      • Justin Fields
• Sometimes the answer is not so simple…
• Cards:  The team needs to know the answer to two questions.  First, is Kyler Murray’s knee “good”?  He should be back on the field soon for live action assessment.  Second, Is Kyler Murray as committed to winning NFL games as he is to winning computer games?  During his year of rehab, has he been studying game film or playing Madden football?
• Giants:  The team overpaid Daniel Jones.  He is signed through the end of the 2026 season with a buyout clause that could kick in at the end of 2024.  However, exercising that clause would cost the Giants over $22M in “dead cap money”.  The current backup is Tyrod Taylor and his contract “voids” three days after the Super Bowl next February.  So far, undrafted rookie, Tommy DeVito, has been unspectacular at best.
• Pats:  Mac Jones signed a standard rookie contract in 2021; the Pats have him signed through 2024 with an option for a fifth year in 2025.  With two-and-a-half years of evidence gained through observation on the field, Mac Jones could have a long career ahead of him as a perennial backup QB in various venues around the league.  It does not seem to me that he has the potential to be a “franchise QB”.  Behind Jones on the Pats’ depth chart today are Bailey Zappe and Will Grier.  The Pats need a significant upgrade at the position.
• Raiders:  Simply put, is Aidan O’Connell for real?  Because at age 32, it is not likely that Jimmy G. is the main man going forward for the team; and certainly, at age 38, Brian Hoyer is not the “QB of the future”.

Lots of people – – me included – – think that this year’s Draft has a handful of very interesting prospects at the QB position.  I suspect that at least four of these five teams will be in the market for a QB next year and there are surely other teams who might consider “adding a QB” as an element of their long-range planning.  It could be a very interesting Draft coming up next April …

Finally, here is an observation by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Suicide is belated acquiescence in the opinion of one’s wife’s relatives.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I want to circle back to a couple of my previous comments to provide an update.  Earlier this week, I mentioned that the Prosper, TX Independent School Distract had a referendum item on the ballot yesterday.  Folks there sought voter approval to issue about $104M worth of bonds and to use $94M of that total to build a new football stadium for the high school team there.  Well, the people of Prosper, TX have spoken; there were four bond items on the ballot and the stadium proposal was “Proposition C”:

• Proposition C was voted down yesterday – – 5,533 voted NO and 4,767 voted YES.
• The other three propositions all passed handily – – to upgrade school technology, to build new school buildings and to build a performing arts center.

It seems that sanity prevailed yesterday in Prosper, TX …

Next, I said recently in one of my Football Friday rants that James Madison University was not eligible to play in a bowl game this year for reasons that I did not understand at the time.  Well, as of this morning, there are seven Division 1-A teams that are undefeated in 2023.  Five of those seven are the ones ranked in various orders between #1 and #5 in the various national polls we all glance at.  The other two are:

• Liberty (9-0)
• James Madison (9-0)

I think it is a bit snobbish – – yet understandable – – for the college football overlords to declare that neither of these two schools has played a sufficiently vigorous schedule to grant them access to a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.

•  Liberty has dominated Conference-USA which has 9 teams – – four of which have lost 7 or more games so far in 2023.  Liberty’s out of conference games have mainly been MAC teams.  Liberty is clearly the best of that lot and should earn Liberty a bowl bid outside the major games on New Year’s Day.
• James Madison is dominating the Sun Belt Conference which is not nearly a Power-5 conference but seems to me to be a step up from Conference-USA in “difficulty”.  JMU is not bowl-eligible in 2023 because of an obscure NCAA rule.

Supposedly as a deterrent to schools seeking to move up from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A (tougher competition and bigger revenues), the NCAA has in its massive rulebook that any team that “moves up” shall be ineligible for bowl games in its first two years at the Division 1-A level.  In most cases, that rule never needs to be invoked because as results for this year demonstrate, teams that step up in the first year or two never come close to winning 6 games to make themselves bowl eligible.  This year, the only school “stepping up” so to speak is Sam Houston St. as of this morning Sam Houston St. has a record of 1-8 playing in Conference-USA.

James Madison left Division 1-AA and joined Division 1-A last year in 2022.  In its first year of tougher competition, JMU finished with a record of 8-3 and sat out the bowl game season while other teams with records of 6-6 played on.  So, it would seem to me as if JMU has already paid some penance for exhibiting the audacity of trying to compete with the “big boys”.  And now in 2023, they need to do more penance?  To what end?

This inequity seems so simple to resolve; the new NCAA president, Charlie Baker, could simply declare that he was issuing a one-time waiver for that rule and that he declares JMU eligible for bowl invitations from any bowl that might want them to participate.  I am not a consumer of minor bowl games on TV – – but I would find a way to watch JMU play one of the “middle-of-the-pack Power-5 teams” just to see how good these upstarts are with their 9-0 record.  How about:

• JMU (9-0) versus West Virginia (6-3) in the Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit. MI) on Dec. 26^th.
• The two schools are less than 200 miles apart.
• Fans of both teams can get to Detroit on short-hop flights.

So let it be written … so let it be done!

One last circle-back today …  I mentioned that Michigan St. basketball got off to an unexpectedly rocky start earlier this week losing to James Madison in OT.  Well, just to assure you that much of the rest of the early-season college basketball world is functioning normally, consider this result from out west:

• St. Mary’s CA  107
• Stanislaw St.  28

St Mary’s made the NCAA Tournament last March, won its first-round game and was eliminated in the second round by the eventual National Champion UConn Huskies.

Stanislaw St. – – more fully, California State University – Stanislaw – – is a Division 2 basketball team that plays in the CCAA – – more fully, the California Collegiate Athletic Association.  Stanislaw St. has a schedule with entries such as:

• Cal State – Dominguez Hills
• Sonoma State
• Chico State
• Cal Poly – Humboldt

In that 79-point debacle against St. Mary’s, Stanislaw St. shot 9 for 58 from the field (that is 15.5% in case your calculator is not handy) and were outrebounded by St. Mary’s 58-16.  Why was this “game” allowed to happen?

Finally, the JMU situation as described here is an injustice as was that basketball game on the St. Mary’s schedule; so, let me close today with the definition if “injustice” from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Injustice:  A wrong characterized by a lack of fairness or equity.  For example, the fact that a person named Kevin Federline was ever famous for one single day is an injustice of the highest order.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The college basketball season has begun, and fans will not have to wait a moment longer to see the first upset of a Pre-Season Top Ten team.  Tom Izzo and Michigan State were ranked #4 in the pre-season polls; they invited James Madison to come to East Lansing for an early season contest.  Sparty was favored by 16.5 points with Money Line odds of minus-1600 but JMU took the game to OT and won outright 79-76.  Yes, this was an upset that had to surprise Michigan St. fans and those who backed them at the betting window.  But I remembered that JMU was a good team last year, so I went to check the record:

• Last year was the first year that James Madison played Sun Belt Conference basketball.
• Their record in conference was 12-6 and their overall record was 22-11.
• The Sun Belt Conference is not the Big-10 but a team that wins 22 games is pretty good no matter what conference they are in.

Here are three telling stats that reveal how Michigan St. managed to lose this game:

• The five starters for the Spartans shot 0 for 17 from three-point range.
• Overall, Michigan St. shot 1 for 20 from three-point range and only 26 for 72 from the field (36.1%).
• From the foul line, Michigan St. was a measly 23 of 37 (62.2%).

Moving on …  Another sporting event began last weekend.  The first round of the Canadian Football League (CFL) playoffs took place.  In this first round, the results were pure chalk:

• In the East, Montreal (12-6 in regular season games) hosted Hamilton (8-10).  The Alouettes were 4.5-point favorites and easily won and covered by a score of 27-12.
• In the West, BC (12-6) was an 8-point favorite to beat Calgary (6-12) and managed to cover with a score of 41-30.
• Two teams had a BYE for the first round.  Those teams were Toronto in the East and Winnipeg in the West.

On Saturday afternoon, November 11^th, the Montreal Alouettes will visit the Toronto Argonauts to determine the Eastern Division representative in the Gray Cup game to be held in Hamilton on Sunday November 19^th.  Here are a couple things to know about this matchup:

• Toronto’s regular season home record this year was 9-0.  The Argonauts were 16-2 overall.
• These two teams have played 3 times in 2023 and Toronto has won all three games by a cumulative score of 97-57.
• Toronto is a 9.5-point favorite here with a Total Line at 50.5 points.

Later in the evening on November 11^th, the BC Lions will travel to Winnipeg to take on the Blue Bombers; the winner will be the Western Division representative in the Gray Cup game.  Hers are a couple things to know about this game:

• Winnipeg’s regular season home record this year was 8-1.  The Blue Bombers were 14-4 overall.
• Winnipeg is the highest scoring team in the CFL averaging 33 points per game.
• These teams met twice in 2023 and Winnipeg won both games by a combined score of 84-40.
• The Blue Bombers are a 4.5-point favorite in the game with a Total Line set at 49.5 points.

Switching gears …  Bayern Munich is a team in the German Bundesliga – – the top level of soccer in Germany.  As of this morning, they are in second place in that league only two points behind the current leader, Leverkusen.  I mention this because I ran across a report that said that Bayern Munich chose not to renew a “sleeve sponsorship deal” with Qatar Airways.

• [Aside:  The first thing I had to do was to find out what a “sleeve sponsorship deal” was.  Turns out that Qatar Airways pays Bayern Munich 20-million euros a year for the right to have the name “Qatar Airways” printed on the tops of the sleeves of the players’ jerseys.]

The next thing that caught my attention in the report of this decision – – after I got past the idea that such a sponsorship could possibly be worth that much cash to the sponsor – – was that the report said this was a “victory for the fans”.  It did not make sense to me that fans would want the team to have less money to throw around on players and facilities, so I kept reading.  This decision by the club was in response to protests by fans who are also activists for international human rights and those fan-activists do not appreciate Qatar’s record along that dimension.

When/if I ever find a Bayern Munich game on TV, I will try to remember to look for the blank spot on the sleeves of the players’ jerseys – – or to look for what new sponsor the team acquired for that now-available real estate.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close here with two views of the opera:

“The opera … is to music what a bawdy house is to a cathedral.”  [H. L. Mencken}

And …

“People are wrong when they say that opera isn’t what it used to be.  It is what it used to be.  That’s what’s wrong with it.”  [Noel Coward]

            But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Shakespeare told us that the quality of mercy “droppeth like the gentle rain from Heaven.”

Football Friday droppeth from the sky like a lead brick simply because it is Friday.  So, let me get things cooking here with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

College:  2-0-0  =>    Season:  11-6-0

NFL:  0-3-0  =>   Season:  10-8-0

Parlays:  0-2  =>  Loss =  $200   ==>  Season:  6-7   Profit = $213

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats beat Pacific University 42-27 last weekend extending their record to 7-0 this year.  The Wildcats have won the Northwest Conference Championship in 12 of the last 13 seasons and the final game of this year is at home against Whitworth.  Assuming both Linfield and Whitworth win their games this weekend, they will arrive at the field undefeated in conference games making it a winner-take-all game.

To set that up, Linfield must beat Pacific Lutheran this week; the Lutes are 4-4 to this point in the season.  And Whitworth will need to prevail over George Fox University; the Bruins record this morning stands at 3-5.

Go Wildcats!

There are still 8 Division 1-A football teams who are undefeated in 2023:

1. Air Force
2. Florida St.
3. Georgia
4. James Madison
5. Liberty
6. Michigan
7. Ohio St.
8. Washington

For reasons that are not clear to me, James Madison may or may not be bowl-eligible due to the timing of their “graduation” to Division 1-A from Division 1-AA.  Seven of these eight teams are currently ranked in the Top-25; Liberty University is 8-0 and is in the lead in C-USA but is unranked.

Clemson was the pre-season favorite to win the ACC; with their loss last week, the Tigers are 4-4 on the season.  The last time Clemson had four regular-season losses was in 2010.  In 2023, Clemson has been eliminated from the ACC Championship race.

Big things were considered for SMU entering the season after a mediocre 7-6 campaign in 2022. SMU lost to two Big 12 opponents early on this year but have reeled off four straight wins in AAC play. In those four games, SMU has outscored its conference opponents by a combined 189-36.

There were two really surprising upsets last week:

1. UNC lost 46-42 to Georgia Tech – – a team that entered Saturday with a 3-4 record. It was the Tar Heels’ second-straight conference loss to a team with a losing record – – they fell to Virginia two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, UNC was undefeated and was a longshot to make the CFP; today, they need help just to make it to the ACC Championship Game.
2. The bigger of the two upsets last week was Kansas beating Oklahoma.  This was the Sooners’ first loss to Kansas since 1997. The Big-12 title race is now open to all conference teams with one conference loss and the results of this game guarantee that the Big-12 champion will not present an undefeated record to the CFP Selection Committee.  Two weeks ago, Oklahoma needed a late rally to beat UCF – – an opponent that can only be called “mediocre”.

Speaking of the Big-12, the conference moved aggressively compensate for the imminent loss of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC.  Four new teams accepted invitations to join the Big-12 – – bringing the conference membership to 14 schools but who’s counting?  The four new members are not exactly “lighting it up” this year:

• BYU is 5-3 overall and 2-3 in conference games.
• Cincinnati is 2-6 overall and 0-5 in conference games.
• Houston is 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference games.
• UCF is 3-5 overall and 0-5 in conference games.

These four newcomers have some growing-up/catching-up to do as compared to their conference comrades.  As of today, the cumulative conference record for these newcomers is a shabby 3-17.

One of the slots in the New Year’s Day Bowl Games is set aside for a conference winner outside the Power-5.  Even though Liberty is undefeated and leading its conference, it gets rather little attention as a contender for that slot.  The two teams that get mentioned more often are:

1. Air Force (8-0).  They lead the Mountain West Conference and have games with Army, Hawaii, UNLV and Boise St. remaining.  The Falcons should be favored in all four of those games.
2. Tulane (7-1).  They are tied atop the American Athletic Conference with no losses in conference games.  Their only loss was to Ole Miss back in Week 2; it is not a huge embarrassment for an AAC team to lose to an SEC team.  Every other team in the AAC already has 2 or more losses on the books; so from the AAC it would have to be Tulane or bust.  The rest of the schedule for the Green Wave is E. Carolina, Tulsa, Florida Atlantic and UT-San Antonio.

Some games from last week in the ACC:

Florida St. 41  Wake Forest 16:  The Seminoles remain unbeaten and in the hunt for a CFP invitation.  This game was never in doubt:

• Florida St. Total Offense = 508 yards
• Wake Forest Total Offense = 210 yards

NC State 24  Clemson 17:  As noted above, Clemson is only 4-4 this season and all four losses have been to ACC opponents.  Here is the rest of the Clemson schedule:

• Vs. Notre Dame
• At Georgia Tech
• Vs. UNC
• At South Carolina

Louisville 23  Duke 0:  Louisville has only 1 conference loss and is a contender for the ACC Championship Game; this was Duke’s second conference loss.  Duke’s offense was a no-show for the game gaining only 51 yards rushing and 202 yards of total offense.  The Blue Devils were forced to punt 10 times in the game.

Notre Dame 58  Pitt 7:  With 2 losses, Notre Dame is not in the CFP mix, but this was a statement win by the Irish telling the New Year’s Day Bowl Committees to remember the Fighting Irish.

Miami 29  UVa 26 (OT):  The Hurricanes were 18.5-point favorites in the game. UVa won the stat sheet handily:

• Virginia Total Offense = 377 yards
• Miami Total Offense – 276 yards

And …

• Virginia 23 first downs
• Miami 16 first downs

Virginia had a double-digit lead in the game and coughed it up.

Ga Tech 46  UNC 42:  This makes it two losses in a row for UNC and the Heels are the second “big dog” in the ACC to fall to Georgia Tech this year.  Tech outscored UNC 22-7 in the 4^th quarter to come away with the win.  The two teams combined for 1212 yards of offense in the game.

Va Tech 38  Syracuse 10.  Tech is 4-4 on the season but they only have 1 loss against ACC opponents.  If Tech wins out and either Louisville or Florida State stumbles, the Hokies might end up in the ACC Championship Game despite four losses for the year.

In Big-12 action:

K-State 41  Houston 0:  The Cougars put a scare into Texas two weeks ago but none of that sort of play carried over here.  Five teams in the Big-12 have only one conference loss and K-State is on that list.

Kansas 38  Oklahoma 33:  The stat sheet was as even as the scoreboard:

• Kansas Total Offense = 443 yards
• Oklahoma Total Offense = 436 yards

Kansas trailed 33-32 in the game which was decided in the final minute when Devin Neal ran nine yards for a TD.  (A two-point conversion try failed.)  That TD broke an 18-game losing streak to Oklahoma for the Jayhawks.  It was Homecoming Weekend for Kansas; the alums got a special treat here.  With this win, Kansas is now bowl-eligible; Oklahoma – – even if it wins the Big-12 Championship Game – – is probably out of CFP consideration with this loss to a previously unranked team.

Texas 35  BYU 6:  Mallik Murphy filled in for injured Texas QB Quinn Ewers and played an excellent game:

• 16 of 25 for 170 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

Texas is another of the “one-loss teams” in the Big-12 as of this morning.

Iowa St. 30  Baylor 18:  The Cyclones are in the middle of the Big 12 race now that Oklahoma has a conference loss.

Oklahoma St.  45  Cincy 13:  This game was simply a beatdown.  There is no other way to describe it.

Moving on to games in the Big-10:

Penn St. 33  Indiana 24:  Penn St. was a 32-point favorite here and had to scratch and scramble to win the game; covering was never in question.  Perhaps, this was a letdown game for the Nittany Lions after losing a week ago to Ohio St.?  If that were the case, the team had better not take this week’s opponent lightly as it looks ahead to a game at home against Michigan.

Northwestern 33  Maryland 27:  That evens up Northwestern’s record for the year at 4-4 and pretty much eliminates them from a SHOE Tournament invitation.

Nebraska 31  Purdue 14:  After some early-season missteps, Nebraska is only 1 win away from being bowl eligible.  It looks like Coach Rhule has this program headed in a positive direction.  Four teams in the Big-10 West have conference records of 3-2; Nebraska is one of the four.

Ohio St.  24  Wisconsin 10:  Wisconsin is another of the Big-10 West teams with a 3-2 conference record.   The Buckeyes dominated the stat sheet but turned the ball over 3 times in the game keeping it relatively close.

Here are a few SEC games from last week:

Texas A&M 30  South Carolina 17:  The Aggies’ defense held S Carolina’s running game to 33 yards on 28 carries in the game.  Wow!

Auburn 27  Mississippi St. 13:  Both teams need two more wins for bowl eligibility.  That is the ceiling for both squads this season.

Georgia 43  Florida 20:  Last week, I wondered aloud here how the Georgia offense might perform without Brock Bowers in the lineup. In case any doubt remains, Georgia outgained Florida by 176 yards in this game.  Florida scored a TD in the first 4 minutes of the game and also scored a TD in the final 2 minutes.  In between, it was all Georgia…

Tennessee 33  Kentucky 27:  Neither team has a realistic shot at the SEC Championship Game, but this win does make Tennessee bowl-eligible and leaves Kentucky needing one more win to achieve that status.  Here is the rest of the Kentucky schedule:

• At Mississippi St.
• Vs. Alabama
• At South Carolina
• At Louisville

Out west in the PAC-12 …

Oregon 35  Utah 6:  Here is the telling stat from this game:

• Oregon averaged 6.7 yards per offensive play.
• Utah averaged 3.7 yards per offensive play.

This was a “statement game” for Oregon.  They needed a good showing to make the case that they too belong in the CFP discussion despite losing to Washington earlier this season.  It is very possible that the Ducks and the Huskies will meet again in the PAC-12 Championship Game and Oregon wants to have a tidy résumé to put before the Selection Committee if it can win that game.

USC 50  Cal 49:  The two teams combined for 1024 yards of offense; it was a “Tackling Optional Game”.    USC trailed by 11 points at halftime and needed a 21-point outburst in the 4^th quarter to secure this victory.  Cal may not be the worst team in the PAC-12, but they are hardly a powerhouse.

Washington 42  Stanford 33:  The Huskies remain unbeaten and are properly part of the CFP discussion as of today.

UCLA 28  Colorado 16:  The Bruins are now bowl eligible; the Buffaloes still need to find two wins to make it to a bowl game Here is the rest of Colorado’s schedule; it is not an easy one:

• Vs. Oregon St.
• Vs. Arizona
• At Washington St.
• At Utah

UCLA recorded 7 sacks in this game; the Colorado OL needs a lot of help from the transfer portal in the off-season if Coach Prime hopes to make Colorado relevant on the gridiron once again.

Arizona St. 38  Washington St 27:  This is only the second win of the year for Arizona St.   Wash St. needs two more wins for bowl eligibility

Arizona 27  Oregon St. 24:  Arizona struggled earlier this year but seems to have gotten things together.  One more win and they go to a bowl game…

In miscellaneous games:

SMU 69  Tulsa 10:  Two weeks ago, SMU scored 55 points on Temple.  Now they put a beat down on Tulsa.  Do the Mustangs have some sort of vendetta against school names that begin with the letter “T”?  The Sesame Street characters want to know …

BC 21  UConn 14:  SHOE Tournament implications here…

UMass 21  Army 14:  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Appalachian St. 48   So Miss 38:  SHOE Tournament implications here …

Tulane 30  Rice 28:  As noted above, Tulane is 7-1 and would like to be the Group of 5 team that gets invited to a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  A 2-point win over Rice is not much of a calling card …

Liberty 42  W. Kentucky 29:  Liberty is one of the undefeated teams in the country.  They may not play the world’s toughest schedule, but they only can beat the team that takes the field against them…

The possibilities for the SHOE Tournament field are beginning to crystallize.  Here are a dozen teams on my watch list:

1. Akron  (1-7)
2. Army  (2-6)
3. Ball St.  (2-6)
4. Cincinnati  (2-6)
5. East Carolina (1-7)
6. Kent St.  (1-7)
7. La-Monroe  (2-6)
8. Michigan St.  (2-6)
9. Southern Mississippi  (1-7)
10. Stanford  (2-6)
11. Temple (2-6)
12. UConn  (1-7)

And just a brief update on the teams in contention for the Brothel Defense Award for 2023:

• Southern Mississippi gives up 39.4 points per game.
• UMass gives up 39.2 points per game.
• Temple gives up 38.0 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

I don’t care if you get tired of hearing from and about SEC teams.  For this weekend, much of the focus for folks who like and follow college football will be on two SEC games:

• LSU at Alabama – – and – –
• Missouri at Georgia.

I don’t say this to minimize the rest of the games on the schedule for this weekend.  In fact, neither of those two games is my College Game of the Week.  But in terms of real and potential impact on the college football season, this is “where the action is” this weekend.

Miami – 6 at NC St. (44):  The spread opened the week at 3.5 points and has climbed steadily during the week; one sportsbook has it at 7 points this morning.  No, I don’t know why …

Wisconsin – 9 at Indiana (45):  The Badgers are tied for the lead with 3 other teams in the Big-10 West; they need this game.  Indiana is playing because that is what the schedule tells them they are supposed to do.

UCF – 4 at Cincy (59.5):  Two of the new teams in the Big-12 who have not impressed so far this year.  Maybe the rallying cry for this game should be:

• Conference bottom-feeders – – Unite!!!

Ohio St. – 19 at Rutgers (42):  Ohio St. has not been blowing opponents away this year the way they have in the past.  Is this the game where the offense clicks and hangs something like 70 points on Rutgers?

Florida St. – 21 at Pitt (50.5):  This looks like a big mismatch to me …

Penn St. – 8 at Maryland (51):  The spread opened at 10 points and has been dropping slowly all week long.  The Lions did not impress last week, and they could easily be looking past the Terps toward their meeting with Michigan next week.

Tulane – 17 over E. Carolina (47):  Tulane wants and needs to impress the New Year’s Day Bowl mavens; they got a shot at a big bowl game last year and won the game; they would like to do that again.  E. Carolina is on the SHOE Tournament watch list…

Nebraska – 3 at Michigan St. (35):  The Huskers will get a bowl game with a win here.  The Spartans’ football program is in disarray.

Va Tech at Louisville – 9.5 (49):  Both teams have only 1 conference loss and they are looking up at Florida St. in the standings.  The winner here is in a good place.

Navy – 6.5 at Temple (46):  Temple gives up 38 points per game all by themselves.  The Total Line here reflects the fact that Navy will predominantly run the football and keep the clock running thereby limiting the number of possessions and the number of scoring opportunities.

Iowa – 5 at Northwestern (30.5):  Iowa is one of four teams tied atop the Big-10 West; they need a win more than does Northwestern.  Absent defensive scores or special teams’ scores, the first offense to put 15 points up should win this game.

Illinois at Minnesota – 2 (43):  Minnesota is in that mix atop the Big-10 West race.  Illinois is not…

Kentucky – 3 at Mississippi St. (46):  Kentucky has lost three games in a row – – but those losses have come at the hands of Georgia, Mizzou and Tennessee.  Those are top teams in the SEC and Mississippi St. is definitively not a top team in the SEC.  Yes, Mississippi St. is much tougher at home than on the road, but I think Kentucky is the significantly better team here; I like Kentucky to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Oregon St. – 13.5 at Colorado (63):  I suspect that Colorado’s quest for bowl-eligibility will take a big hit in this one…

Army at Air Force – 19 (31.5):  Wow, that is a huge spread for a game between two service academies.  Air Force is undefeated and is eyeing a possible New Year’s Day Bowl Game; Army is on the SHOE Tournament watch list.

Cal at Oregon – 24.5 (59):  Cal scored 49 points on USC last week; they won’t do that again here.  Oregon has plenty of incentive to keep its foot on the gas in this one; it could get very ugly.

UCLA – 3.5 at Arizona (51.5):  Arizona would become bowl eligible with a win here.  Last week, I liked Arizona as a home underdog with the better defense.  Arizona won that game outright.  I think the same situation obtains here PLUS UCLA arrives with a seemingly gaudy 6-2 record, but the Bruins have not beaten anyone of note all season long.  I’ll take Arizona plus the points again this week; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Washington – 3 at USC (76):  This is my College Game of the Week.  Washington needs the game to remain unbeaten knowing that one of the teams ranked ahead of them today must lose when Michigan and Ohio St. play later.  It also features two serious Heisman candidates in Caleb Willliams and Michael Penix Jr.

Kansas at Iowa St. – 3 (53):  Iowa St. is one of 5 conference teams with only 1 conference loss; Kansas already has 2 conference losses; the game means more to Iowa St.  However, the same was true last week when Kansas rose up and beat Oklahoma (see above).  Can the Jayhawks replicate that kind of game?

LSU at Alabama – 3 (60): This was my runner-up for the College Game of the Week.  Alabama leads the SEC West with a 5-0 record; LSU – – along with Ole Miss – – is in second place at 4-1.  If LSU wins the game, the SEC West will become highly interesting because Alabama has beaten Ole Miss and Ole Miss has beaten LSU and now …  The LSU defense has played well the last two weeks, but it will be missing two starters in this game; can the Tigers make up for those absences?  Alabama’s defensive prowess is not in question, but Alabama’s offense has been a bit of “hit-or-miss” in 2023.  I think the Alabama offense can get well against the “spotty” LSU defense AND I think the LSU offense is plenty good enough to challenge the ‘Bama defense.  I like this game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  This is the Saturday night game in Prime Time for Eastern Time Zone viewers.  I’ll be watching…

Oklahoma – 6 at Oklahoma St. (60.5):  The Total Line opened the week at 70 points and has plummeted more than 9 points during the week.  Both teams bring 4-1 conference records to the field; the loser could be eliminated from contention for the Big-12 Championship.

Missouri at Georgia – 15 (56):  Georgia is undefeated in 2023; Missouri is the only SEC East team with only 1 loss.  An upset for Mizzou here could easily vault them into the SEC Championship Game because they would own a tiebreaker over Georgia and the teams could each finish with 1 loss.  Missouri QB, Brady Cook, has thrown for 300+ yards in Mizzou’s last 4 games; can he do that to the Georgia defense?  Georgia QB, Carson Beck, has had three straight games with 300+ yards passing; can he keep that up in this game?  This is a great game to watch because Georgia could win by more than 4 TDs – – OR – – Mizzou could win outright at Money Line odds of +520.

• I am not making a pick in this game, but I suspect that Georgia has put the pieces together for the season as shown in last week’s demolition of Florida.  If I am right, they will cover 15 points with ease, but I only suspect that to be the case …

Texas A&M at Ole Miss -3 (54):  Mississippi needs a win to remain part of the conversation in the SEC East should LSU prevail this weekend.

K-State at Texas – 4 (49):  Both teams have only one conference loss in Big-12 play.  This is virtually an elimination game for the loser.

Hawaii at Nevada – 3.5 (50.5):   SHOE Tournament implications here…

Notre Dame – 3 at Clemson (44):  The Irish will not be part of the CFP but would love to get a New Year’s Day Bowl bid…

 

NFL Commentary

 

Let me begin this section with an “update issue”:

• The Eagles only sacked Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell, once in last week’s game.  That means Howell has been sacked 41 times in 8 games putting him on pace to be sacked 87 times for the season.  The NFL record is 76 sacks in a season.

That update could possibly indicate that the Commanders have figured out how to protect Sam Howell more effectively.  However, I wonder if the team is “protecting” him properly in a larger sense.  Consider:

• The Commanders ran 69 offensive plays against the Eagles last week and 53 of those plays were passes or attempted passes.
• The score was tied, or the Commanders were in the lead until the final 7 minutes of the game; it is not as if the Commanders had to play “catch-up” until then.

Remember when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon in Week 1 and there was such an outcry about the evils of artificial turf?  Well, there really was such a weeping and gnashing of teeth; go check it out for yourself.  The NFLPA even got to the point where it “demanded” that all NFL stadiums convert to natural grass.  [Aside:  Growing and maintaining natural grass in a domed stadium is tricky business…]

Well, last week on the natural grass of Lambeau Field, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon.  Did you hear any outcry about the playing surface?  Did you hear any apologies from the shriekers who accused the turf of harming Aaron Rodgers?  I didn’t …

Jaren Hall, a rookie from BYU, replaced Cousins last week.  At the time, the QBs on the Vikes’ roster were Hall, Sean Mannion and Nick Mullens.  The Vikes are 4-4 and have to decide on how to proceed for the rest of 2023; they are in the hunt for a playoff slot; or they could bag the season and try to figure out what to do at QB for next year – – because Cousins is an unrestricted free agent come next March.  I think what the Vikes did was to kick the can down the road.  They traded with the Cards to acquire Josh Dobbs to play QB – – for now.

The Vikes’ schedule is relatively soft for the next few weeks; they could build up some wins in that stretch to enhance their playoff possibilities:

• At Falcons
• Vs. Saints
• At Broncos
• Vs. Bears
• BYE WEEK
• At Raiders

After that soft spot in the schedule with winnable games stacked one upon another, the sledding gets a bit more difficult for the Vikes down the home stretch:

• At Bengals
• Vs. Lions
• Vs. Packers
• At Lions

And for the record, that trade means the Cards will go with rookie, Clayton “Name That” Tune as their QB until Kyler Murray is ready to take over those duties.  Murray practiced with the team last week and is expected back before Thanksgiving.

From the games last weekend …

Seahawks 24  Browns 20:  The Seahawks ran off to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but the Browns’ defense kept the score in check such that the Browns had the lead 20-17 as the 4^th quarter began.  The Seahawks took possession at their own 43 yardline with 1:20 left to play in the game and drove 57 yards in 5 plays to score the winning TD.  PJ Walker committed 3 turnovers in the game (2 INTs and a lost fumble) and that was more than the Browns’ defense could cover for.

Broncos 24  Chiefs 9:  The Broncos hadn’t beaten the Chiefs since 2015, and they had never beaten Patrick Mahomes.  They say that Patrick Mahomes had the flu all week and was not fully recovered for the game.  That might explain his zero TDs and 2 INTs in the game.  That does not explain how:

• The Chiefs’ running game amassed only 62 yards in the game – – or – –
• The Chiefs’ defense held Russel Wilson to 86 yards passing but allowed 3 TD passes in the game.

I chalk this result up to the adage, “On any given Sunday…”

Ravens 31  Cards 24:  The Cards slightly outgained the Ravens in the game; the Cards had one more first down than the Ravens.  That is the good news for the Cards.  The bad news is that the Cards turned the ball over twice and the Ravens never turned the ball over.  Those two Cards’ turnovers were INTs, and both led to TDs by the Ravens

Bengals 31  Niners 17:  That is 3 losses in a row for the Niners dropping them a half-game behind the Seahawks in the NFC West standings. In each of those 3 losses, the niners’ offense only produced 17 points.  The Niners moved the ball well producing 460 yards on offense but that only translated into 17 points.  Brock Purdy had a good day throwing for 365 yards in the game – – but he also threw 2 INTs that were harmful; I believe that makes 6 turnovers for Purdy in the last 3 games.  Christian McCaffrey broke Lenny Moore’s record for touchdowns in consecutive games (17), set in 1963-64.  With the win, the Bengals kept pace behind the Ravens who also won last week.  Every team in the AFC North is above .500 this week.

Titans 28  Falcons 23:  This was the first start for Titans’ rookie QB, Will Levis and it was most impressive:

• 19 of 29 for 238 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs

DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those four touchdown passes.  That stat line suggests to me that Levis should be the starter going forward even if Ryan Tannehill is fully recovered for this weekend.  Meanwhile, the Falcons benched Desmond Ridder at halftime; the Falcons offense in the first half totaled only 89 yards and Ridder had taken 5 sacks.  He was replaced by Taylor Heinicke who rallied the team in the second half but still fell short.

Bills 24  Bucs 18:  The Bills are in second place in the AFC East – – one game behind the Dolphins.  The Bucs’ loss drops their record to 3-4 and puts them a game behind both the Saints and the Falcons in the NFC South. The Bills outgained the Bucs by 125 yards in the game and yet only won by 6 points.  It is very difficult to anticipate how either of these teams will play from game to game.

Chargers 30  Bears 13:  Tyler Bagent started his first NFL game and played the whole way.  Frankly, he played better than several other “backup QBs” played last week and he did not look confused or intimidated by the experience at all.  The difference here is that the Chargers played a complete game with solid execution in all phases of the game.  That was too much for the Bears last week – – and it would have been no matter who was playing QB for the Bears last week.

Panthers 15  Texans 13:  This gets the Panthers off the schneid; now, there are no winless teams in the NFL in 2023.  It was a defensive game:

• Panthers’ Total Offense = 224 yards
• Texans’ Total Offense = 229 yards

The Panthers won on a 23-yard field goal with 3 seconds left in the game.

Jags 20  Steelers 10:  The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to a rib injury at the end of the first half and turned to Mitchell Trubisky for the second half.  That didn’t work well; Trubisky did throw a TD pass, but he also threw 2 INTs in the second half.  The Jags committed 3 turnovers in the game which is usually a formula for losing – – but not with the Steelers’ offense in sputtering mode here.

Cowboys 43  Rams 20:  This game was out of hand by the middle of the second quarter; the Cowboys led at halftime 33-9.  Making things even worse for the Rams, Matthew Stafford had to sit out the 4^th quarter with a thumb injury on his throwing hand; Brett Rypien was his ineffective replacement.  The Cowboys’ offense, defense and special teams were firing on all cylinders in the game:

• Offense produced 387 yards total offense
• Defense produced a Pick-Six
• Special teams blocked a punt resulting in a safety

The Rams need Stafford to be able to throw effectively ASAP if they hope to remain relevant in the NFC playoff conversation.  The Rams are 3-5 and have a winnable game coming up against the Packers – – if Stafford can play near his normal level of competence.

Vikes 24  Packers 10:  This may have been a Pyrrhic victory; Kirk Cousins had to leave the game on a cart with a torn Achilles tendon which means “out for the season”.  The backup QB was Jaren Hall – – a rookie QB out of BYU taken in the fifth round in last April’s Draft.  The Vikes led 10-3 at the half but broke it open with 2 TDs in the first 9 minutes of the third quarter.   The Packers had the ball in the Red Zone twice in the 4^th quarter and scored 0 points on both incursions.

Dolphins 31  Pats 17:  After a competent showing two weeks ago against the Bills, the Pats’ offense reverted to its more customary stature – – plodding incompetence.  The Pats’ defense is good, but it needs some production from the offense to be competitive:

• Pats’ Total Offense = 218 yards
• Pats’ Time of Possession = 24:05
• Pats had 3 “drives” of “three-and-out” and another “drive” of “four-and-out.”

Meanwhile, Tua had a big day producing this stat line:

• 30 of 45 for 324 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT

Saints 38  Colts 27:  Until this game, the Saints’ offense had been mundane in 2023; it sprang to life in this game generating 511 yards total offense.  In the 7 games leading up to this one, the Saints had only scored more than 20 points twice this season.  Derek Carr threw for 350 yards and 2 TDs in the game.  The Colts kept it close for half the game; the Saints only led 21-20 at halftime.  The Colts’ defense is problematic; this is the third game in a row that it has given up 37 or more points.

Jets 13  Giants 10 (OT):  This game was like watching a mudslide slowly advancing and, in the process, demolishing a housing community.  You don’t see it often – – and you are glad that is the case.

• There were 23 points scored in this contest.  There were 24 punts in the game.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.
• The Giants’ passing offense was minus-9 yards for the game.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.
• The teams combined to go 4 of 34 on third-down conversions.  You don’t see that sort of thing very often.

Tyrod Taylor started the game in place of Daniel Jones at QB for the Giants.  Taylor had to leave the game in the first half with a rib injury that sent him to the hospital at least overnight.  His replacement was Tommy DeVito a rookie from Syracuse who scored a running TD in the second half but whose passing stats were:

• 2 of 7 for minus-1 yard with 0 TDs and 0 INTs.

Eagles 38  Commanders 31:  I said last week, this was a “sandwich game” for the Eagles and they played that way for 3 quarters of the game.  The score was tied 17-17 starting the 4^th quarter.  AJ Brown had another monster game with 8 receptions for 130 yards and 2 TDs.  He set an all-time NFL record by having more than 125 yards receiving in 6 consecutive games.  If you are discussing who is the best WR in the league in 2023, Brown must be in the discussion.  The Commanders actually outgained the Eagles for the day by almost 100 yards and the Eagles turned the ball over twice inside the Commanders’ 5 yardline.  And still the Eagles won the game…

Lions 26  Raiders 14:  Looking at the score, you might think the outcome of this game was in doubt for more than the first 10 minutes or so.  Not so; the Lions completely dominated the play.  The Lions outgained Raiders by 389 yards in the game and registered 6 sacks. Consider:

• Lion’s time of possession = 39:33
• Lions’ first downs = 29   Raiders’ first downs = 12
• Lions’ total offense = 486 yards   Raiders’ total offense = 157 yards.
• [Aside:  The Lions’ offense was more than triple the Raiders’ offense here.]
• And for good measure, the Raiders turned the ball over 3 times in the game.  Lions’ rookie RB, Jahmyr Gibbs, made it look easy while logging these stats:
• 26 carries for 152 yards and 1 TD
• 5 pass receptions for 37 yards

The Lions are 6-2; they lead the NFC North by 2 games over the Vikes who must navigate the rest of the year with Josh Dobbs at QB in place of Kirk Cousins.  Absent injury woes of their own, the Lions’ path to the NFC North title seems like a smooth one.

 

Games This Week:

 

“BYE Weeks” took a BYE Week last weekend; all 16 teams were in action.  Not so this week, four teams have the week off:

1. Broncos:  They have an extra week to enjoy their upset of the Chiefs and to celebrate the first time the Broncos have ever beaten Patrick Mahomes.
2. Jags:  The Jags are 6-2 and both losses were at home.  They get an extra week to figure out why that is the case.
3. Lions:  They are also 6-2 and can use the week off to heal injuries and figure out ways to keep this momentum going.
4. Niners:  They have lost 3 in a row.  Other than getting Deebo Samuel back from injury, what do they need to do to get back to winning ways?

            In last night’s game, the Steelers beat the Titans 20-16.  In case there was any ambiguity how and why the Steelers advance their record to 5-3, let me offer up some facts for our consideration:

1. In their 3 losses, the Steelers have scored 7 points, 6 points and 10 points.  It’s hard to win in the NFL when one’s offense plays like that.
2. In their 5 wins, the Steelers have scored an average of 20 points per game.  It takes an awfully stingy defense to live on the edge like that.

The Steelers’ offense generated 326 yards on offense meaning they have been above the 300-yard mark for only the second time in 2023.  At the same time, this was the 42^nd consecutive week for the Steelers’ offense to fail to gain 400 yards in a game.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs – 2 (51) Game is in Germany:  For its first-ever regular season game in Germany, the NFL provides fans with two teams leading their divisions.  This is a yardstick game for the Dolphins; their record is 6-2 but none of the 6 teams they beat has a winning record in 2023.  They have played two teams with winning records (Bills and Eagles) and have lost both of those games badly.  The Chiefs are a good team with a winning record; the Dolphins’ credibility is on the line here.  This game is good enough to set an alarm to assure you are up and ready to watch, starting at 9:30 AM on Sunday.  You like trends for NFL games?  Here’s one:

• Patrick Mahomes has won his last 8 starts after a loss.
• The Chiefs lost last week.

Vikes at Falcons – 4 (37):  It looks as if Jaren Hall will be the Vikes’ QB as the team gives Josh Dobbs a week to “learn the system”.  The Falcons may or may not start Desmond Ridder; if not, they will go with Taylor Heinicke who will either light up the Vikes or find a way to lose a turnover at the most critical moment of the game.  This game was a contender for Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Don’t watch it; don’t wager on it.

Seahawks at Ravens – 6 (44):  Both teams lead their division; both teams are good.  I think the Ravens are the better team but not by much.  Lamar Jackson is 17-1 against NFC opponents in his career; he even won last week against the Cards when he only offered up his “C+ game”.

Cards at Browns – 7 (37):  The spread for this game is all over the place this morning.  I found it as low as 6.5-points and as high as 9 points at one sportsbook today.  Who will be the Browns’ QB?  That is a “game-time decision”.  Deshaun Watson is “Questionable” – – in just about every sense of the word – – with PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the wings.  The Cards will start rookie Clayton Tune.  And some folks will actually bet cash money on this game…  Amazing.

Rams at Packers – 3 (38):  The spread opened the week with the Rams as 2-point favorites.  The Rams were dominated by the Cowboys last week and Matthew Stafford may or may not be over his thumb injury.  If he can’t go, Brett Rypien will be the Rams’ QB in a game the Rams need to win to maintain relevance.  The spread movement tells me that most folks do not anticipate Matthew Stafford in the game.  Meanwhile, the Packers stunk out the joint last week also.  A loss for the Packers here would put them four full games behind the Lions in the NFC North.  This is a game that one team will lose and the other will win by default.

Bucs at Texans – 3 (40):  The Bucs are on a three-game losing streak; the Texans lost last week to the previously winless Panthers.  Neither team is riding a wave coming into this one.  This is not nearly the worst game of the weekend, but it is one to avoid if possible.

Commanders at Pats – 3 (41):  The Commanders defense has given up 228 points so far this year (28.5 points per game); that is the worst in the NFC and second in the NFL only to the Colts who have given up 229 points so far this year.  On the other side of the ball, the Pats’ offense only produces 14.8 points per game.  The Commanders’ defensive backfield has been regularly torched this season; the Pats’ WRs are substandard at best.  I will have to watch this game because of my geolocation on Sunday; if you have other choices, exercise those choices.

Bears at Saints – 9 (41):  The Saints have a good defense; sometimes they have a decent offense too.  The Bears will still start Tyson Bagent in the game, and I don’t think he is up to going toe-to-toe with the Saints’ defensive unit.  But do I trust Derek Carr to have two big games in a row?

Colts – 2 at Panthers (44):  Both teams are in the cellar in their division.  Both teams might realistically aspire to mediocrity this year.  I am a bit surprised at the Total Line being as low as it is.  The Colts give up points galore; if Colts’ QB Gardner Minshew has one of his “magical games” this total could be near 60 points.

Giants at Raiders – 1.5 (37):  These are two bad teams; this is my Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Raiders’ defense was torched for almost 500 yards last week (see above).  The Giants’ offense only averages 11.9 points per game.  The Raiders come to the game with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator and a new QBs coach and they plan to start rookie Aiden O’Connell at QB.  Those sorts of changes can produce great highs or mass confusion.  The constant in this equation is the Giants; they will play solid if not spectacular defense and will be miserable on offense.

Cowboys at Eagles – 3 (47):  This is my Game of the Week.  This is a big game for both teams.  The Eagles lead the NFC East by 1.5 games; if they win here, that becomes a commanding lead equivalent to 3 games given they would hold the tiebreaker at least until the rematch in Dallas later this year.  The last three times Dak Prescott has faced the Eagles, the Cowboys have won all 3 games.  I have seen the Eagles play 3 times this year and I believe that Jalen Hurts is not at “full strength”.  I like the Cowboys plus the points in this game – – even on the road in Philly; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun Nite) Bills at Bengals – 2 (49.5):  The spread opened the week with the Bills as a 1-point favorite but that did not last long.  Josh Allen versus Joe Burrow will be most entertaining to watch, and the Bengals seem to have steadied the ship in recent weeks.  When things go right for the Bills, they can beat anyone; but they have had too many games in 2023 where everything seems to be a half-note off key.  I like the Bengals at home in this game laying less than a field goal; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Chargers – 3 at Jets (40):  The Chargers beat the Bears handily last week; does that mean they have found the keys to success?  The Jets will field a much better defense than did the Bears last week and it’s a long trip from LA to the Meadowlands for the Chargers.  I am tempted to take the points here – – but I will resist.

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Kentucky – 3 over Mississippi St.
• LSU/Alabama OVER 60
• Arizona +3 against UCLA
• Cowboys +3 against Eagles
• Bengals – 2 over Bills

And here are two Money Line Parlays – – one college and one NFL – – just for fun:

• Browns @ minus-350
• Saints @ minus-380
• Ravens @ minus-260   $100 wager to win $125.

And …

• Wisconsin @ minus-340
• Oregon St. @ minus-460
• SMU @ minus-400     $100 wager to win $97.

Finally, let me close with these words from Alabama head coach, Nick Saban:

“Mediocre people don’t like high achievers, and high achievers don’t like mediocre people.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Bob Knight died yesterday at the age of 83.  He was the coach of three Indiana basketball teams that won the National Championship, and he was a member of the Ohio State basketball team that won the National Championship in 1960 with a win over Cal in the final game.  Two of his teammates on that Ohio State team were Jerry Lucas and John Havlicek.

To say that Coach Knight was controversial in his demands of his players would be like saying Michaelangelo was good at painting ceilings.  He demanded effort and specific technique from his players; and when they did not deliver either, Coach Knight did not react in a warm and fuzzy manner.  Here is a quote from Coach Knight that might illustrate his thinking on player motivation:

“The greatest motivator in the world is your ass on the bench. Ass meets bench, bench retains ass, ass transmits signals to the brain, brain transmits signals to the body, body gets ass off bench and plays better. It’s a hell of a sequence.”

Knight began his coaching career at Army where one of his point guards was a kid named Mike Krzyzewski – – who went on to have a pretty good coaching career himself.  In fact, Knight was instrumental in getting Krzyzewski the job at Duke because when the job became open, the AD at Duke sought a recommendation from Knight who was at Indiana at the time and Knight suggested Krzyzewski for the job.

For all his less-than-polished edges and his famous tantrums, Bob Knight’s players generally went on in their lives as good citizens and productive members of society.  Maybe it was an admiration within the “Curmudgeon Community” that fostered it, but I was always an admirer of Robert Montgomery Knight.

Rest in peace, Coach Knight.

Since Bob Knight was a pillar in the edifice of college basketball, let me stay with that sport for a while.  There were reports late last week that the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) declared that they were going to change the way they managed and offered up “invitations” to their event.

Starting at the end of this college basketball season in March 2024, the NIT will no longer offer automatic invitations to teams that were regular-season conference champions but who did not win their conference tournament and who did not get a slot in the NCAA Tournament.  Rather, the folks who run the NIT said:

1. The NIT will guarantee two teams from each of six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big-10, Big-12, Pac-12, and SEC).
2. The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected. Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT.

[Aside: “NET rankings” are mathematical constructs that replaced the wildly unpopular Ratings Power Index.  Both exercises purport to be able to identify an ordinal ranking of teams even if they have never played one another or comparable stables of opponents.]

I have no problem with Item #1 above.  The NIT is in existence to generate revenue for its owner who just happens to be the NCAA.  The fact of the matter is that second tier schools from the major conferences will attract greater attention than teams from minor conferences whose champs are in the ”Big Dance” mostly as cannon fodder for the dozen or so teams who have a real shot at winning it all.  Think about it:

• If Princeton wins the Ivy League and goes to the NCAA Tournament, how much interest will be generated by inviting Brown to the NIT?
• If Texas A&M-Corpus Christi wins the Southland conference and goes to the NCAA Tournament, how much interest will be generated by inviting McNeese State?
• Ditto for the Horizon Conference and the Summit Conference etc.

At the same time, one can argue that such a move by the NIT to put 12 automatic teams from the “Big Conferences” regardless of won-lost records means that when the NCAA Tournament mavens invite 5 teams from one conference (say the ACC), that means the NIT will guarantee an invitation to -at best- the sixth and seventh best teams in the conference even with losing records for the season.  So, how appealing is that?

I have suggested this format in the past and I offer it up once again as a way to populate the NCAA Tournament and the NIT:

1. The NCAA Selection Committee should choose 96 teams and seed them as best it can from #1 to #96.  There will surely be errors and misjudgments in those seedings, but such errors can be corrected on the court.
2. The Top-32 teams would get a BYE.  Teams 64 seeded #33 through #96 would engage in a play-in tournament round.
3. The 32 winners of the play-in round would be part of the NCAA Tournament and seeded there in the order they were seeded prior to the play-in round.
4. The 32 losers of the play-in round would make up the field for the NIT.

If the Selection Committee is actually doing the job that it was constituted to do, it will be able to recognize an outstanding team from a minor conference that might be overshadowed for a 68-team tournament field and place that team in a seeding between #68 and #96.  If the Committee is not up to that task, then I submit that it is equally not up to the task of selecting and seeding the top 68 teams to make up the NCAA Tournament field.

And of course, congratulations to the Texas Rangers – – winners of the 2023 World Series in 5 games.  This is the first World Series title in franchise history for the Rangers.  Corey Seager was voted the MVP of the Series in what had to be the most obvious selection process of the year.  This marks the second time Seager has been the MVPO of a World Series; only three other players have repeated as Series MVPs:

• Bob Gibson
• Reggie Jackson
• Sandy Koufax

Not a bad list to add one’s name to …

Finally, Bob Knight was an avid fly fisherman and enjoyed fishing trips with one of his childhood heroes, Ted Williams.  So, let me close today with this view of fishing by the American humorist, Don Marquis:

“Fishing is a delusion entirely surrounded by liars in old clothes.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

About a month ago, a friend suggested that Matt Eberflus would be the first NFL head coach to be fired and he predicted it would come at the end of October.  I thought Brandon Staley might be first to go and agreed that the end of October might be the timing of the event.  We had the time right; the first NFL head coach to be fired this year happened yesterday – – which was unambiguously the “end of October”.  However, we both got it wrong as to the name; it was Josh McDaniels (Raiders) who got the axe yesterday.

There had been reports that there was “disharmony” in the Raiders’ locker room and that communications between coaches and players were not always constructive.  Such is often the case with losing teams – – especially teams that underachieve expectations.  In such cases, it is far easier to “fire the coach” than to “fire the players”.

McDaniels’ record (9-16) as the head coach of the Raiders is hardly exemplary but allow a glimmer of reality into the picture here:

• Josh McDaniels was not the reason that the Raiders generated a total of 157 yards on offense against the Lions last weekend.
• Josh McDaniels was not out there trying to block the Lions’ defenders as they inflicted 6 sacks on Jimmy G.
• Josh McDaniels was not out there flutily trying to tackle the Lions with the ball to the tune of allowing 486 yards on offense to the Lions.

I must give Mark Davis a bit of credit here.  In addition to firing McDaniels, he also fired the GM who – in concert with McDaniels presumably – constructed the roster that produced that bed-wetting performance last weekend.

Having given him credit for that decision, now let me offer a cautionary note for all Raider fans:

• Mark Davis is the guy who hired GM Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels – – and Mark Davis will hire the next person/people to fill those roles.
• Before the newly fired management regime, Davis installed the regime of Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden to lead the team to glory.  How did that work out?
• So, Raiders’ fans had best begin to root for “the blind squirrel finding an acorn” because the track record in the owner’s suite is not a good one.

The Raiders’ interim head coach is Antonio Pierce who had been the Raiders’ linebackers’ coach.  He is a former linebacker with the Skins and the Giants; his playing career spanned nine seasons where he made the Pro Bowl once.  Mazel tov, Antonio Pierce.

Moving on …  In the latest AP poll for college football, Oklahoma dropped to #10 in the rankings after losing to unranked Kansas last week.  Meanwhile, Texas is ranked #7.  Except … Oklahoma beat Texas only 3 weeks before that in a head-to-head matchup.  [Aside:  And just to add to the jumble here, Texas beat Kansas 4 weeks ago by 4 TDs.]

In case you think I am cherry-picking here, consider that Louisville is ranked #15 this week while Notre Dame is ranked #12.  Except … Louisville beat Notre Dame by 13 points 3 weeks ago AND Louisville has one fewer loss for the season than Notre Dame.

So, just in case any college football fans think that the expansion of the CFP from 4 teams to 12 teams will “avoid” any controversies about rankings, take a moment and think about this week’s presentation of the Top 25…

Switching gears …  Let me do a reset here.  Recall in the Spring of 2023, two men were jailed after cheating in a fishing tournament in Lake Erie.  To increase the weight of their catch, they stuffed lead fishing weights into the stomachs of some of the fish and would have won the prize money for the tournament had the cheating not been exposed.

Well, one of the two men who served 10 days in jail for all that now stands accused of poaching deer in Pennsylvania.  His charges include:

“Two counts of unlawful killing or taking of big game.

“Three counts of unlawful taking or possession of game or wildlife.

“Two counts of unlawful acts concerning licenses – – and – –

“One count of violation in tagging and reporting big game kills.”

Reports say that the “unlawful killing” charge involves hunting without a license, hunting after hours and hunting out of season.  This guy is clearly an outdoorsman; however, if convicted of all this he will be spending a bit of time “indoors”, don’t you know…

Finally, apropos of nothing, I will close today with this comment from comedian Fred Allen:

“You can take all the sincerity in Hollywood, place it in the navel of a fruit fly and still have room enough for three caraway seeds and a producer’s heart.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Big news from last night; the Sixers found a way to rid themselves of that thorn they had under their fingernail – – James Harden.  Daryl Morey – – Sixers’ GM – – may or may not be a man of his word when you hear Harden tell the tale, but he got “value received” in the swap PLUS he added to the team harmony by moving Harden three time zones to the west.  If you have not read about the intricacies of this deal, here is how ESPN.com explained it:

“The 76ers traded Harden, P.J. Tucker and Filip Petrusev to the Clippers for Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, Nic Batum, KJ Martin, a 2028 unprotected first-round pick, two second-round picks, a 2029 pick swap and an additional first-round pick that will be routed from a third team, sources told ESPN.”

Got that?  I don’t know if the Sixers “won the trade” because Harden – when he is in the mood to play his best game – is far and away the best player involved here.  And the Sixers will also have to be without the services of PJ Tucker as a result of the trade and Tucker is a “for real” NBA player.  Having said all that, this trade might be all that is needed to name Daryl Morey as the NBA Executive of the Year.

Harden was not going to be a constructive member of the Sixers; he was in “get me outta here mode”, which is a role he has perfected having used it to exit Houston and Brooklyn in recent years.  When the Nets unloaded Harden – – to the Sixers – – all the Nets got in return was the headcase known as Ben Simmons who has added precious little to the Nets fortunes.  In this deal, Morey has actually acquired some NBA assets.  None will surpass a happy James Harden, but Marcus Morris and Robert Covington will play hard and play well every night for the Sixers and that haul of draft picks has trade value should Morey choose to use it that way.

The Clippers got a third “Top-Shelf Player” in Harden to go with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George; that makes for a potent offensive trio, but Harden adds nothing in terms of defense either individually or as a team.  Leonard is still a quality defender and George is better than average, but the Clippers might be vulnerable in terms of 3-point defense on the wings.

For the Clippers, this trade puts them squarely in “Win Now Mode”.

• James Harden is 34 years old.
• Paul George is 33 years old.
• Kawhi Leonard is 32 years old.

And do not forget that the Clippers also have Russell Westbrook on the roster which might be extremely interesting to watch.  Westbrook is another offensive asset; there is no denying that.  Westbrook and Harden used to be teammates and then they weren’t.  The two of them did not pair well on the court and by some reporting, the same situation obtained in the locker room.  This story is far from over.

Switching gears …  Yesterday, I said that I assumed things were percolating in the background to finalize the move of the Oakland A’s to Las Vegas.  Then, I got a note from a reader who lives in Arizona telling me there is a potential roadblock for the deal which I was totally unaware of.  Here is the substance of his note to me:

“… the State Education Association created a petition that got enough signatures so that the money approved by the Nevada Legislature for the stadium will be on the ballot next week as a referendum.  If the voters support the State Education Association position, the money for the stadium will not be available.”

The Legislature approved spending $380M on the new ballpark; just as the stadium for the NFL’s Raiders has been a plus for the economy in Las Vegas, voters in places like Reno could easily ask themselves, “How does another stadium ‘down there’ make my life any better?”  This referendum – should it be successful for the State Education Association – could be important for two reasons:

1. It could thwart – at least in the immediate term – a move of the A’s from Oakland to Las Vegas.
2. It could provide a new way for stadium opponents to fight against public money appropriations for such things.

Democracy in action at the ballot box next week…

Moving on …  After the Spanish Women’s National Soccer Team won the Women’s World Cup in August, the head of the Royal Spanish Football federation, Luis Rubiales, kissed one of the Spanish players, Jennifer Hermoso.  She said it was uninvited and unwanted and filed a grievance; Rubiales was adamantly unrepentant.  Yesterday, FIFA barred Luis Rubiales “from all football-related activities for three years.”

Rubiales has declared that he will appeal this punishment – – meaning this story is not over yet.  From his perspective, the appeal will assure “that justice is served and the truth shines.”  Here is my position on this matter:

What Rubiales did was wrong.  Period.

1. On a 1-to-10 scale of “wrong behaviors” where “1” is farting in an oxygen tent and “10” is genocide, what Rubiales did is a “1”.  I am sorry; but given the emotion of the moment and the nature of the wrong behavior, this is not something that has societal implications for the ages.
2. He should have apologized – – sincerely – – at the time of the incident and then again about 30 seconds after Ms. Hermoso filed her grievance.  That time has passed…
3. Three years seems like an overly harsh penalty here; it seems to me there is a measure of “virtue signaling” included in the penalty.

Finally, since I mentioned what may become the “Kiss Heard Round the World”, let me close with this observation by my favorite curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“When women kiss, it always reminds one of prize fighters shaking hands.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Tonight there is a double scoop of sports on TV.  At 8:03 PM EDT, the World Series Game 3 starts; at 8:20 PM EDT, the NFL Monday Night Football game kicks off.  Thomas Paine labeled the social situation of his age as “the times that try men’s souls.”  Here in Curmudgeon Central, it is times like these that make us glad that God invented the DVR and the TV remote.

Game 1 of the World Series was as interesting and dramatic as could be wished for.  A game-tying two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth inning sent the game to extra innings which produced a walk-off home run.  Game 2 of the World Series was interesting for a while, but the game turned into a rout in the later innings.  Yesterday was a travel day for the Rangers and D-Backs; action tonight and for the next couple of days moves to Arizona.

I have no personal links to either the Rangers or the D-Backs; I have never lived or worked in “Dallas” or in “Phoenix”; I have friends who live in both cities; so, there is no tipping of the scales for me on that dimension.  In situations such as this, the rule here in Curmudgeon Central is to adhere to the “Hedonism Principle”.  I will root for the team that is behind in the Series to even things up such that the World Series goes to 7 games.

• More games to watch and enjoy = the “Hedonism Principle”.

One last item to clean up before moving away from this year’s World Series …  I mentioned last week that I did not foresee these two teams duking it out in the World Series in 2023 nor did I recall any other prognosticators doing so.  But I did run across this item at one of the sports gambling sites on the Internet giving you an idea how many – if any – folks called this pairing in advance:

“In March [of this year] the odds on a D-backs/Rangers World Series were 1,750 to 1.”

Let me stay on the subject of baseball here and present to you a stat that came to me from a reader who obviously loves mining baseball data for oddities.  I used to try to “fact check” his communications but have come to take them at face value.  So, here is his latest missive:

• In 13 post-season games this year, the Phillies struck out 120 times.
• In the entire decade of the 1990s, Tony Gwynn only struck out 188 times.

There has been no real news recently about the intended move of the Oakland A’s to Las Vegas but if I am to believe a report on a travel/tourism site, there must be things happening in the background.  The proposed site for the stadium that will be needed to house the A’s will require the demolition of the Tropicana Hotel and Casino.  According to the travel site, they have had access to an “internal memo” which says that the Tropicana will close sometime between late 2024 and mid-2025.  The structure will need to be imploded and removed to create space for the stadium and a new hotel/casino that will go up adjacent to the stadium.

Assuming that information is accurate, I would draw a couple of conclusions:

1. The time frame is right.  The A’s lease in Oakland runs out soon.  The team – and MLB presumably – have targeted 2028 as the year the team will move into the as yet to be constructed stadium in Las Vegas.  Ergo, the demolition of the existing hotel at the stadium site by mid-2025 makes sense.
2. There has been no announcement of a formal vote of the MLB owners approving the movement of the franchise from Oakland to Las Vegas.  However, if this level of detail is afoot in the planning processes, I would have to think that Commissioner Manfred has “read the room” and is confident that there are 23 votes out there in favor of this franchise relocation.  Any such move needs a 75% vote of the owners; that means there needs to be 23 of the 30 owners in favor of such an action.

Three venues have been floated as trial balloons about where the A’s might play until the new facility is ready.  Obviously, one is to extend the lease in Oakland and hope there are no more sewage backups into locker rooms and dugouts.  Two other ideas seem more aesthetically pleasing but less practical:

1. Play “some” home games at Oracle Park – – home of the SF Giants.  The problem with that idea is where to play “the other games” that are not held at Oracle Park.  There needs to be a solution for all the A’s home games not “some” of them.
2. Play at least “some” home games at Las Vegas Ballpark which is the home field for the Las Vegas Aviators of the Pacific Coast League – – a AAA farm team affiliated with the A’s.  The stadium has seating for 8,196 and can hold 10,000 fans including standing room.  Moreover, it has no dome to allow “climate mitigation”.

I suspect that the MLBPA will not be happy to accede to a situation where some of its members will get to play outdoor baseball in Las Vegas in the summer in front of 8,196 fans in a sellout.  This is why I am convinced that things are going on in the background on this whole situation.

Finally, since I mentioned hedonism above, let me close with this observation by Woody Allen related to that concept:

“You’ll live to be a hundred if you give up all the things that make you want to.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The calendar says today is Friday – – and that means that we have all survived yet one more week on this planet as it careens around the sun.  It also means that we need to strap ourselves in for another Football Friday experience.  As is customary, I shall begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

College:  3-0-0   =>   Season:   9-6-0

NFL:   1-2-0   =>   Season:   10-5-0

Parlays:   0-2   Loss:   $200    Season:   6-5   Profit:   $413

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            The Linfield College Wildcats extended their 2023 record to 6-0 by thrashing the Lumberjacks of the University of Puget Sound 55-6.  Both teams scored touchdowns and then failed to covert the PAT in the first quarter, so the score was tied 6-6 going into the second quarter.  From that point, Linfield scored 49 unanswered points.  Linfield lived on big plays in the game; Puget Sound actually held the ball for more than half the game (31:25) but Linfield gained 203 more yards of offense in the game.  This week, the Wildcats are at home to take on the Boxers of Pacific College who arrive at the kickoff with a record of 1-5.  Go Wildcats!

Last week was not a great showing by several of the top-ranked teams in the country as I will point out as we go along in today’s rant.  But Michigan had no real difficulty in steamrollering hapless Michigan State 49-0.  The Wolverines are 8-0 and have won each of those games by 24 points or more.  Even if – – and I said IF – – they are stealing opponents’ signs improperly, that is an impressive display.  Look, Michigan has yet to play any team that is within hailing distance of being a “top team”; their conference schedule is back-loaded in terms of difficulty and their out of conference schedule should be greeted with utter scorn.  Nevertheless, 8-0 and winning every game by 24 or more points is noteworthy.

Also noteworthy is the observation that the bottom has fallen out on the football program at Michigan State as it meanders along toward the end of this season.  As of this morning, the season stands at 2-5 with the two wins coming at the expense of Division 1-AA Richmond and MAC powerhouse Central Michigan.  There are 4 games left on Sparty’s schedule and two of them are against Ohio State and Penn State.  It is going to be a long winter in East Lansing…

A former colleague and a reader of these rants back before the days when they appeared on the Internet is an alum of Florida State.  He has a simple formula for figuring out the amount his annual donation to his alma mater:

• He gives the school a base amount of “X dollars”.  If the Seminoles beat the Gators in football that year, he doubles his donation.

While I do not have any similar way to gauge any of my charitable contributions for the year, I do admire the simplicity of his generosity.  And from that simplicity, you will probably not be surprised to learn that he hopes that Florida loses every football game that it ever plays.  Knowing that, I was not overly surprised to get an email from him earlier this week telling me to check out Florida’s remaining schedule to see if – – maybe – – the Gators might lose every one of their remaining games.  So here is the Florida football schedule for the rest of 2023:

• Vs. Georgia in Jax – – undefeated and ranked #1 in the country as of this morning
• Vs. Arkansas
• At LSU – – ranked #15 in the country as of this morning
• At Missouri – – ranked #16in the country as of this morning
• Vs. Florida St. – – ranked #4 in the country as of this morning.

The Gators should be underdogs in all of those games save for the one at home against Arkansas.  Moreover, if the Gators were to lose all of their remaining games, they would not be bowl eligible.  So, of course, I asked my former colleague if he might consider adding a “sweetener” to his contribution this year if his Seminoles not only win that final game of the season but if that victory would also keep Florida out of a bowl game.  I have not heard back from him as of this morning…

Here are some comments on games from last week; I’ll start in the SEC:

Mississippi St. 7  Arkansas 3:  Arkansas fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos in the wake of a 7-3 loss at home to Mississippi State. Frankly, I’m a little surprised Enos was the only one out on the streets. The Hogs have a bye week and a 2-6 overall record this year (0-5 in the SEC); so, I would have thought that head coach, Sam Pittman. would also be getting a pink slip.

Missouri 34 S. Carolina 12:  Hear me out.  Missouri could become the 2023 version of 2022’s TCU.  The Tigers could follow that model of a completely out-of-the-box dark horse team that gets on a run and makes it to the CFP.  Missouri is 7-1 for this season and they are tied with Alabama for the second-best overall record in the SEC.  Moreover, Mizzou gets to go head to head with Georgia two weeks from now in a game that is going to be far more important than I ever thought possible at the start of the season.  Am I going to bet on this happening?  Hell, no!   But I didn’t have TCU making the final game in the CFP last year either…

Alabama 34 Tennessee 20:   Alabama trailed Tennessee 20-7at the half and were outplayed in the first half.  Bama rallied in the second half pitching a shutout to win the game.  Whatever Nick Saban said to his team at halftime needs to be bottled, trademarked and sold as a motivational tonic.

Ole Miss 28 Auburn 21:  The stat sheet says this game should not have been this close.  Ole Miss produced 475 yards on offense; Auburn only managed 275 yards.  But that is the result in the books …

In Big-10 action:

Ohio St. 20 Penn St. 12: Ohio St. beat Penn St. in a defensive struggle.  Actually, it was only because of a very good defensive effort by Penn St that made a game of it because the Penn St. offense was barely existent.

Rutgers 31 Indiana 14:  UNLV and Rutgers both achieved bowl eligibility last week.  For UNLV that is only their second bowl eligibility year since 2000.  Rutgers won this game despite having only 39 yards of passing offense in the game.  Woody Hayes would approve …

Minnesota 12 Iowa 10:  The total offense generated by BOTH teams in this game was 363 yards.  If you want to label the game, call it the Ineptitude Bowl.  Iowa’s total rushing output for the game was 11 yards.

Nebraska 17 Northwestern 9:  Call this the Battle of the “N-logos”.  You have to find something interesting about this game because it had all the drama and heart-stopping ambience of a Gregorian chant concert.

Michigan 49 Michigan St.  0:  So, what is the next embarrassment for Sparty football that might be more embarrassing than what the team has shown over the past several weeks?  Maybe one of the starters caught on video in flagrante delicto with a barnyard animal?  Michigan still has yet to play an opponent that anyone thinks is a real opponent – – but they keep mauling lesser opponents.

In ACC action …

Virginia 31 UNC 27:  This is the first loss for UNC, and it comes in a game where the Cavaliers were 24-point underdogs on the road in Chapel Hill.  UNC lost to a team that was 1-5 entering the game and that lone win had been over a Division 1-AA opponent.  Nonetheless, the Cavaliers struck first and hung on to win this game.   North Carolina – – now 6-1 for the season – – led 24-14 early in the third quarter but Uva quarterback Tony Muskett, had a great game going 20 of 30 including a game winning 14-yard TD pass in the closing moments.

Florida St. 32 Duke 20:  Duke led 17-7 early in the second quarter but that lead would not be nearly enough because the Blue Devils would only manage a field goal from that point forward.   The Seminoles gained 420 yards on offense as opposed to only 273 for the Blue Devils.  Add to that the fact that Florida St. was 7 for 12 on third-down conversions and the result here is understandable.   Duke’s record now stands s at 5-2; they are mathematically alive in the ACC race to crown a conference champion but the more realistic outcome for the Blue Devils is an upper level bowl game.  Florida State remains unbeaten and should be given lots of consideration for inclusion in the CFP.

Miami 28 Clemson 20 (OT):  Miami rallied from 10 points down at the start of the 4^th quarter to force OT and ultimately to come away as the winner in this game.

In Big-12 games …

Oklahoma St.  48 West Virginia 34:  West Virginia led 24-20 at the start of the 4^th quarter – – then the teams combined to score 38 points in the 4^th quarter.  The Total Line for the game was 48 points; the oddsmakers did not think Oklahoma St. would reach that total all by themselves.  Total offense in the game by both teams was 966 yards.

K-State 41 TCU 3:  This TCU team is not nearly of the caliber of last year’s TCU team that went to the National Championship Game – – only to be slaughtered by Georgia.  This makes 4 losses for the Horned Frogs on the season – – one each to Colorado, West Virginia, Iowa St. and K-State.  Meanwhile, K-State is 5-2 for the season with the following schedule in front of them:

• Vs Houston’
• At Texas
• Vs Baylor
• At Kansas
• Vs Iowa St.

Texas 31 Houston 24:  Texas took a big lead 21-0 in the first half and then saw Houston rally to make a game of it.  The Cougars actually outgained the Longhorns 392 yards to 360 yards for the day.  The Longhorns (6-1) had two weeks to overcome their loss to Oklahoma and came out revved up and ready to go; but after halftime, Houston tied the game and had a chance to create overtime at the end. The Texas defense held in the Red Zone in the final 2 minutes to secure the victory.

Out west in PAC-12 games …

Utah 34 USC 32:  People have been “skeptical” or “critical of USC’s defense all season long.  Well let me give you a picture of why fans of USC cannot be happy.  The Trojans lost to Utah last week, but it is how they lost that is frustrating.

• Utah was without their starting QB yet again; that meant they would be relying on their running game more than they would if Cam Rising had been at 100% and ready to play.
• Even knowing that, the Trojans allowed the Utes to gain 247 yards on the ground in the game.  Utah just pushed them around.
• Utah’s backup QB, Bryson Barnes, added 245 yards passing with 3 TDs and he also ran the ball for 57 yards in the game.

The coaches at USC who are assigned recruiting duties had better get some defensive studs signed up for next year because if not, there are going to be Big-10 teams that will embarrass USC.  Having said all that negative stuff about USC, one also needs to recognize that Utah is a good team that is very well coached by Kyle Wittingham.

Washington 15 Arizona St. 7:  The Huskies were 28-point favorites in this game and never began to threaten to cover that spread.  The Total Line was 59.5 points.  If you bet the OVER, you had to be tearing your hair out all through this one.  Arizona St had the advantage in terms of offense generated by 61 yards on the game, but Washington turned the ball over 4 times in the game as compared to Arizona St. who only turned it over once.  I said this could be a letdown game for Washington; it sure seems that way.

In miscellaneous other games:

SMU 55 Temple 0:  There are SHOE Tournament implications for Temple – – and this is the 5^th straight week Temple has given up 40 or more points to opponents.

South Alabama 55 So. Mississippi 3:  Clearly some SHOE Tournament stuff here too for So. Mississippi …

Nevada 6 San Diego St. 0:  Nevada won its first game of the year over San Diego St.  That leaves only one winless team – – Sam Houston St. which can be forgiven for that record somewhat because it is the first year in Division 1-A football.  However, this outcome does not assure Nevada elimination from the SHOE Tournament seeding later this year.

UNLV 25 Colorado St. 23:  As noted above, UNLV and Rutgers both achieved bowl eligibility last week.  For UNLV that is only their second bowl eligibility year since 2000.  UNLV is 6-1 for the season; the last time UNLV started a season like this was in 1984 when their offensive backfield included Randall Cunningham and Ickey Woods…

New Mexico 42 Hawaii 21:  There are SHOE Tournament implications here…

 

The SHOE Tournament Watch:

 

Over the years, several readers have chastised me for focusing SHOE Tournament scorn on the “little guys” in college football and ignoring Power 5 teams that are not good at all.  Let me assure any and all folks who are interested in MAC football or AAC football that I am not consciously picking on schools in those conferences.  So, this week, let me break down the SHOE Tournament Watch List as follows:

• Power 5 Teams:  Arizona St. Indiana, Michigan St. Stanford, Vandy
• AAC Teams:  East Carolina, Temple, UNC-Charlotte
• Independents:  Army, UConn, UMass
• MAC Teams:  Akron, Ball St. Kent St. W. Michigan
• MWC Teams:  Hawaii, Nevada
• Sun Belt Teams:  La-Monroe, So Mississippi

And to keep you up to date on teams in contention for the Brothel Defense Award in 2023, here is the data as of this morning:

• Temple gives up 38.0 points per game
• So. Mississippi gives up 38.1 points per game
• UMass gives up 42.4 points per game

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Michigan St. at Minnesota – 7 (40.5):  Of course, you should not wager on this game; but you should also structure your weekend such that you will not have to watch this game unless you are kidnapped and tortured by domestic terrorists.

UMass at Army – 9 (51):  Major SHOE Tournament implications here …

Tennessee – 3.5 at Kentucky (51):  Both teams are 5-2 overall and both teams have 2 conference losses.  The winner of this game remains mathematically alive in the SEC East race, but they will be on life support.  The Vols are 0-2 on the road this year if you are looking for a trend in the game.

Florida St. – 20 at Wake Forest (51):  The Total Line opened the week at 53 points and has inched down to this level.  The Seminoles are 7-0 for the season and aspire to a CFP invitation; the Demon Deacons are 4-3 for the season (all 3 losses are in conference games) and aspire to bowl-eligibility.

Virginia at Miami – 18.5 (47.5):  Clearly, the oddsmakers were only slightly impressed with Virginia’s upset win last week over previously unbeaten UNC …

Duke at Louisville – 5 (46):  Florida St. is undefeated in ACC games this year.  Four teams have only one loss in ACC games to date; both of these teams are among the four with only s single loss.  This is an important game; the loser can forget being a part of the ACC Championship Game.

La Monroe – 1 at Arkansas St. (58):  A team on the SHOE Tournament Watch List is a favorite on the road.  That does not happen often …

UNC – 12 at Georgia Tech (64):  The Tar Heels should be smarting from that loss last week to an inferior Virginia squad.

Oklahoma – 9 at Kansas (66):  The Sooners own an 18-game wining streak over the Jayhawks.  Oklahoma is the only team without a loss in the Big-12; Kansas has lost 2 conference games so a loss here would all but eliminate them from a shot at the Big-12 Championship Game.

Indiana at Penn St. – 32 (46):  Given the ineptitude shown by the Penn St. offense last week against Ohio St. (see above), that spread is a testament to the porosity of the Indiana defensive unit.  Indiana gave up 31 points to Rutgers last week; this game will be one of the ugliest games of the day.  No way would I play a game with a spread like this – – but I would not be surprised if Penn St. were to win by 40 or more points.  For the record, the Money Line for Penn St. in this game is minus-15,000.

• If you took Penn St. on the Money Line at those odds and wagered $100, you stand to win $0.67 if the Nittany Lions prevail.
• Be still my heart …

Wyoming at Boise St. – 5 (49):  Both teams have one loss in MWC games.  Wyoming is 5-2 for the season while Boise St is 3-4.  However, Wyoming has lost both of its games on the road in 2023.  This line set by the oddsmakers looks like a “venue call” to me.

Oregon – 6 at Utah (47.5):  Both teams are 6-1 overall and both teams are 3-1 in PAC-12 games.  Consider this an “elimination game” for the loser when it comes to the PAC-12 Championship Game.  Here is an amazing stat to consider:

• In 7 games so far in 2023, Oregon has only turned the ball over 1 time.

This is my College Game of the Week.  It beats out Georgia/Florida because of its “elimination game” status

UNLV at Fresno St. – 9 (58):  With bowl-eligibility assured, is this a letdown game for UNLV?  Or will they show up invigorated to defend their unbeaten status in MWC games?  Fresno St. is 6-1 for the season and its loss was a conference game to Wyoming three weeks ago.

Colorado at UCLA – 16.5 (61.5):  Colorado has 3 conference losses; it will not be part of the PAC-12 Championship picture in 2023.  The Buffaloes’ overall record is 4-3 meaning they need 2 more wins for bowl-eligibility a year after finishing the season at 1-11.  They have 5 games left to play including this one; none of them are walk-overs for Colorado but a couple of them should be competitive games.  Meanwhile, UCLA with 2 conference losses might still sneak into the PAC-12 Championship picture but it would be a longshot at best.

Oregon St. – 3.5 at Arizona (56.5):  Yes, I know that Oregon St. is 6-1 for the season but Arizona has been playing very well over the last several weeks.  Oregon St. is tough at home but not nearly as good on the road.  Their loss was a road game against Washington St and their two road wins were over San Jose St. and Cal (not exactly the Bruise Brothers).  Arizona is a home underdog with the better defense; I like that betting angle here; give me Arizona plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

New Mexico at Nevada – 1 (50):  Another team on the SHOE Tournament Watch List is a favorite this weekend…  Note that New Mexico waxed another SHOE Tournament Watch List team last week (see above)

Georgia – 14.5 at Florida (49):  I will be interested to see how Georgia’s offense looks in the absence of Brock Bowers who I think should be considered for the Heisman Trophy if the voters ever look beyond the QB position to cast their ballots.

Houston at K-State – 17.5 (60):  The oddsmakers are clearly unimpressed by the game Houston gave Texas last week (see above).  I know that K-State is always tough at home, but the size of the spread does surprise me here.

Iowa St. – 2.5 at Baylor (47.5):  The Cyclones are one of four Big-12 teams with only one conference loss chasing undefeated Oklahoma for a slot in the Big-12 Championship Game.  Baylor already has 2 conference losses.  You may think Baylor has home-field advantage in the game, but Baylor is only 1-4 in home games this year.  I think Iowa St. is the better team with positive momentum; I’ll take them to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ohio St. – 14.5 at Wisconsin (45):  The Buckeyes must avoid a letdown after beating Penn St. in the football equivalent of an axe fight last week.

Mississippi St. at Auburn – 6.5 (41):  Auburn has been disappointing and sluggish on offense all year; Mississippi State won last week despite scoring only 7 points.  This game has the earmarks of an UGLY game…

South Carolina at Texas A&M – 16 (52.5):  The Gamecocks are 2-5 on the season and 0-3 on the road.  Having said that, the Aggies’ offense has been so sporadic this year that backing them and giving 16 points to any team not confined to an ICU somewhere is risky.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The 2023 iteration of the Buffalo Bills is inscrutable.  They looked like strong Super Bowl contenders in August; they have an elite talent at QB; they have a highly regarded head coach.  Nevertheless, it is difficult to know how they are going to play “on any given Sunday” – – or Thursday night either.  The Bills record is 5-3; that puts them a half-game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East and the Bills have played one more game than the Dolphins.  By the way, the Bills beat the Dolphins four weeks ago by 4 TDs.  That is in line with their “projection” as a top team.  And then …

• The Bills have lost to the Jets and the Pats – – both teams below them in their division standings.
• The Bills have also lost to the Jaguars in a London game which can be acceptable due to the Jags’ competence and jet lag
• But the Bills only beat the woeful Giants by only 5 points and needed 2 TDs in the 4^th quarter to do so.
• Last night as a double-digit favorite at home over the Bucs, the Bills dominated the stat sheet and won by only 6 points.

When you figure out what is going on with the Bills, please drop me a line and clue me in…  The Bills seem to fit this description by the author Jack London:

“At once he became an enigma.  One side or the other of his nature was perfectly comprehensible; but both sides together were bewildering.”

Let me also comment this week on the Washington Commanders.  If you want an example of how a team can play up to or down to the level of its opponent, just check out the Commanders.

• In Weeks 1-4, the Commanders beat two bad teams in very close games.  (Cards by 4 points and Broncos by 2 points).  Also, they lost to the Eagles by 3 points.
• In Weeks 5-7, the Commanders have beaten the Falcons but have also lost two games to the Bears (by 20 points) and then lost to Giants in a game where the Commanders only scored 7 points.  Those 7 points only came after the Commanders recovered a muffed punt that set up a TD drive of 21 yards.

The Commanders OL is embarrassing – – and what makes it more embarrassing is that at least three guys the Commanders had on their team are now elsewhere in the NFL and playing well.  I refer here to Morgan Moses (Ravens), Brandon Scherff (Jags) and Trent Williams (Niners).

In the first half of last week’s game against the Giants, the Commanders had net offense of 46 yards.  For the game, the Commanders were 1 of 15 on third down conversions.

So … the Commanders can play the Eagles – – a legit playoff team with a chance to go back to the Super Bowl in February 2024 – – to a game decided by a field goal where the Commanders scored 31 points AND they can lose to the Bears by 20 and then wet the bed against a bad Giants’ team starting its backup QB.  That goes beyond “inscrutable” and into “WTF” territory.

A most pleasant surprise for its fans so far this year, the Houston Texans are 3-3 and in second place in the AFC South.  The Texans were less than good just last year posting a season record of 3-13-1 and earning the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.  They used that pick to take CJ Stroud (Ohio St.) who has been an important part of what appears to be a major turnaround.  In addition to the play of the rookie QB, the Texans’ defense has played well too, ranking 8^th in the NFL in points allowed per game (18.8).  I suspect that some of the credit here belongs to new head coach, DeMeco Ryans, and GN Nick Caserio.

Deshaun Watson will be out again this week for the Browns.  The fully guaranteed $230M contract the Browns lavished on Watson was a bad move by the Browns in the first place – – notwithstanding the fact that they had to part with multiple first round picks just to be able to negotiate with Watson.  However, if Watson rarely if ever plays, it makes that deal into one of the worst personnel moves ever.  When he has played in 2023 – – all or part of 4 games – – his QB Rating is 80.9 which is nothing to write home about.

The Bears are not a good football team in 2023.  Neither are the Raiders and the game last week between the two of them was embarrassing.  (I’ll get to details on that later.)  So, what have the scheduling mavens of the NFL done?

• Both the Bears and the Raiders are on the air in Prime Time this week.  Oh joy!

Here’s a quick review of last week’s NFL action:

Vikes 22 Niners 17:  Kirk Cousins put on a show even though it was a “Prine Time Game” where Cousins has not shown well in the past.  Here is his stat line:

• 35 of 45 for 378 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT

Justin Jefferson was not on the field, but Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson combined to catch 18 passes for 209 yards and 2 TDs.  The Niners offense was pedestrian.  Brock Purdy threw two INTs in the 4^th quarter and that did not help the Niners’ cause at all.  The Niners’ defense was neither solid nor smothering; they gave up over 450 yards to the Vikes and did not sack Kirk Cousins even once on those 45 pass attempts.  This makes 2 losses in a row for the Niners narrowing their lead in the NFC Wesst to a half-game over the Seahawks.  Meanwhile, this win by the Vikes puts them in second place in the NFC North, two games behind the Lions.  Maybe an interesting race is developing in the NFC North?

Ravens 38 Lions 6:  The Ravens were as dominant as the scoreboard would indicate.  The Ravens generated 504 yards on offense in the game (355 yards on offense in the first half) and had the Lions shut out 35-0 to start the 4^th quarter.  The Ravens simply disemboweled the Lions.  There is no other way to put it.  Lamar Jackson was unstoppable in this game with this stat line:

• 21 of 27 for 357 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs plus a rushing TD

I also read somewhere – – but did not record where – – that Lamar Jackson has started 16 games against NFC teams and his record in those games is 15-1.  Wow!

Falcons 16 Bucs 13:  For the first 59 minutes and 56 seconds, the Falcons had generated 401 yards on offense and produced only 13 points.  In the final four seconds, the Falcons kicked a 51-yard field goal to win the game.  Desmond Ridder tried to hand the game to the Bucs losing 3 fumbles in the Red Zone.  So far in 2023 when the Bucs win, they score 20+ points; in their 4 losses this year, the Bucs have averaged 12 points per game.

Pats 29 Bills 25:  I am not sure what was more surprising – – the Pats winning this game in the first place or the fact that Mac Jones’ stat line was significantly better than Josh Allen’s stat line.

• Allen:  27 of 41 for 265 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT
• Jones:  25 of 30 for 272 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT

The Bills record after this game was 4-3; with their win last night, they stand at 5-3 this season.  Josh Allen is fifth in the AFC in passer rating, but he threw in a fumble on top of an interception against the Pats. The Bills’ defense only sacked Mac Jones once in this game.

Bears 30 Raiders 12: The Ls Vegas Raiders should be embarrassed.  The last time Tyson Bagent started a football game, it was in the Division 2 tournament semi-finals and his team (Shepherd U) lost that day to the Colorado Schol of Mines.  Bagent only managed to produce 13 points in that college loss; so, you have to have figured that the Raiders’ defense would confound the rookie and hold the Bears to something near single-digits.  Cue Lee Corso here:

“Not so fast, my friend!”.

Not only did Raiders lose the game, they lost by 18 points to the Bears.  Given that the Raiders chose to start geriatric backup QB, Brian Hoyer, you would think their game plan would have included a heavy leaning on Josh Jacobs in the running game.  Jacobs rushed 11 times for 35 yards which was not a good showing.  Making it even worse, one of his carries was for 11 yards; so, his other 10 carries gained all of 24 yards.  Meanwhile, the Bears running game produced 173 yards for the game on 38 carries.   The Bears intercepted three passes and converted 8 of 13 third-down situations.

Giants 14 Commanders 7:  The Giants had not scored a TD in the first half of any game this year; they got two of them in this game and that was enough to win.  Going into this game, the Giants defense had recorded a total of 5 sacks for the season; they sacked Sam Howell 6 times in this game.  See above for some of the other gory details of this game.  The Commanders are 3-4 on the season with a point differential of minus-50 points.  There are three other teams in the NFC with 3-4 records; here are their point differentials:

• Rams  +14 points
• Saints  +6 points
• Vikes  minus-1 point.

Here is another indication of how sloppy and inept the teams were in this game.  There were 18 punts and 14 assessed penalties in the game.

Browns 39 Colts 38:  The Colts dominated the stat sheet gaining 456 yards and yielding only 316 yards.  The Colts’ defense also created 5 turnovers in the game – – and somehow the Colts managed to lose.  Myles Garrett has to be the Player of the Week.  He had two strip sacks, and he blocked a field goal attempt in this game.  Gardner Minshew had a Jekyll and Hyde type of game.  He threw for more than 300 yards and produced 4 TDs in the game; he also created 4 turnovers in the game.

Chiefs 31 Chargers 17:  The Chiefs posted 483 yards of offense (413 yards through the air) and won this game handily.  The Chiefs only led by 7 at the half and the Chargers’ defense was efficient in the second half allowing only one TD on 6 Chiefs’ possessions.  However, the Chargers’ offense in the second half produced this mess:

• INT
• PUNT
• PUNT
• PUNT
• INT

The Chiefs now lead the AFC West by a whopping three full games over the Raiders who have not looked “menacing” so far in 2023.    Patrick Mahomes had a signature game here; he threw for 324 yards and 4 TDs in the game.

Steelers 24 Rams 17:  The Rams outgained the Steelers by 54 yards in the game and converted 9 of 16 third down attempts.  Usually, that leads to a win; last weekend it did not.  The Rams did commit one turnover and it led to a short-field TD drive of 7 yards for the Steelers.  The Rams led 17-10 at the start of the 4^th quarter and managed to lose the game.

Broncos 19 Packers 17:  The Packers had a BYE Week before this game and put forth this clunker of a game.  The Broncos led 9-0 at the half; I guess you could say that the Packers “rallied” in the second half, but that would be very generous.  The Packers led by a point with 8 minutes to play in the game; after a Broncos’ field goal putting the Packers behind the eight ball, the Packers had the ball in the final two minutes.  But an INT by Jordan Love cemented the loss. Feh on both teams here …

Seahawks 20 Cards 10:  The Seahawks led 14-10 at the half and then shut the Cards out in the second half to win a lackluster game.  In the first half of the game, there was a scrum that would up with two players swinging at each other.  Both “made contact” with an official but only one was ejected on the basis that the officials determined that he was the instigator.  Frankly, if that is how it went down – – I did not see this game live – – then that is the best use of replay so far this season.  The Cardinals, after playing close/competitive games in September, now look like the bottom-feeder team I expected all along. Since they beat Dallas at the end of September, they have lost four consecutive games, all by 10 points or more.  The Cards were 0 for 3 on fourth down in this game.

Eagles 31 Dolphins 17:  I was in the stadium to watch this game.  The Dolphins’ high octane offense was held to 244 yards with only 45 yards coming on the ground.  When Tua tried to pass, he was under pressure at least 75% of the time.  Nevertheless, the Eagles only led 24-17 at the start of the 4^th quarter and the Dolphins had put together a nice drive to get the ball deep in Eagles’ territory when Darius Slay intercepted Tua at the 2 yard line with about 11 minutes left in the game.  From there, the Eagles put together a scoring drive that covered 83 yards in 13 plays and consumed 6 minutes and 35 seconds.  The final defensive series for the Eagles had them regaining possession after 4 plays that netted the Dolphins zero yards.  AJ Brown had another big game catching 10 passes for 137 yards.   Brown has been impossible to stifle. He has caught at least six passes for at least 131 yards in each of the Eagles’ last five games.

Before getting to this week’s contests, let me keep you up to date on two trending issues in the NFL:

1. The Steelers gained 300 yards on offense last week.  That means they have been at or below 300 yards in 5 of their 6 games this week.  Also, it has now been 40 consecutive games for Steelers OC, Matt Canada, where he has failed to put together a game plan that could gain 400 or more yards in a game.
2. Sam Howell was sacked 6 times by the Giants last week.  He has now been sacked 40 times in the Commanders’ seven games to date.  That projects to 97 sacks for the season.  The NFL record is 76 sacks in one season.

 

Games This Week:

 

For reasons known only to the NFL scheduling mavens, all the teams are in action this week.  It is as if the “Bye Weeks” have taken a BYE Week after 6 teams took off last week and 4 teams will sit out next week.

One other interesting note before getting to the individual games this week.  The road team is favored in 9 of the 15 games left on the card for this weekend.  Whatever happened to home-field advantage?

Saints – 1 at Colts (44):  The Saints have had a long week to prepare since they last played on Thursday night a week ago – – losing to the Jags.  The Saints have been unimpressive this year posting a 3-4 record, but in the homogenized NFC South, that puts the Saints in second place one game behind the less-than-fearsome Falcons in the division.  This is an important game for the Saints.  Meanwhile the Colts are 2 games behind the Jags in the AFC South and a loss here would but the team squarely behind the eight ball.  The QB comparison in the game is stark:

• Derek Carr:  Never spectacular, never abjectly awful.  Steady as she goes…
• Gardner Minshew:  Sometimes 4 TDs; sometimes 4 INTs; sometimes both in the same game.  Full speed in one direction or the other …

Jags – 3 at Steelers (41):  The Steelers are 4-2 this year and are only a half game behind the Ravens in the AFC North.  Amazingly, with that winning record, the Steelers’ point differential so far in 2023 is minus-24 points. The Jags have won 4 games in a row; that is the second longest winning streak in the league.  Statistically, the two teams are about even; Trevor Lawrence is the better QB.  Is that enough for me to take the Jags and lay points on the road in Pittsburgh?  No.

Texans – 3 at Panthers (43.5): Obviously, the storyline here is the first NFL confrontation between Bryce Young (Overall #1 pick in April’s draft) and CJ Stroud (Overall #2 pick in April’s draft).  So far, Stroud has the better record and the better stats, but it is way too soon to write off Young as a bust.  The Panthers are winless this year.  Their defense has been decent ranking 19^th in the NFL in yards allowed per game; the offense has been less effective ranking 24^th in the league in yards gained per game.  On the scoreboard, the Panthers are losing by 12.5 points per game.  Given that this game means a lot to the Texans in terms of the standings, I like them to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Eagles – 7.5 at Commanders (43.5):  Simply stated, this is a classic “sandwich game” for the Eagles.  Last week, they had to prep for the high-flying Dolphins; next week, they face their closest rival in the NFC East, the Cowboys; the week after that they go on the road to take on the Chiefs.  And here in the middle of all that are the plain vanilla Washington Commanders.  No way do I take the Eagles to cover here; if you think that hook on top of a full TD in the spread makes you comfortable taking the underdog here, be my guest.

Rams at Cowboys – 6 (45):  The Cowboys have the better overall roster.  The Rams have the better QB and the better head coach.  If you want to make a pick here, flip a coin…

Pats at Dolphins – 9.5 (47):  Both teams surprised last week.  The Pats were a pleasant surprise playing well and winning over the Bills.  The Dolphins were pushed around by the Eagles and lost by 2 TDs.  There is an unknown here:

• Tyreek Hill did not practice on Wednesday with a “hip injury”.

If he does not play, that changes a lot because it would allow the Pats to focus on Jaylen Waddle making the explosive Miami passing game less lethal.  So, is Hill in or out?  Without knowing that, this game is a pass…

Jets – 3 at Giants (37):  Look for a defense-dominated game here.  The offensive unit that makes the biggest mistake will lose this game.  If you want to make a prediction as to which team’s offense will do that, have at it…

Falcons – 2.5 at Titans (35.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Titans are a mess; the only thing offensive about their offense is their body odor.  Ryan Tannehill has a sprained ankle and is not expected to play; even if he does, he should not be at peak performance which is what Ryan Tannehill has to put out for the Titans to win.  So, the Titans could start Malik Willis or Will Levis.  At least if Levis starts his first game in the NFL, it might make the game watchable simply to see what the kid can do.  For the Falcons, I trust Desmond Ridder about as much as the dealer in a 3-card Monte game…

Vikes – 1.5 at Packers (42):  The Vikes played very well last week beating the Niners, but the Vikes traditionally do not play well in Green Bay.  The counter to that statement is that the Packers have looked awful over the last several weeks,

Browns at Seahawks – 3.5 (38):  The spread opened the week at 1 point and slowly rose to this level over the week.  The Total Line opened the week at 41 points and dropped to this level pretty quickly.  It looks as if the Browns will start PJ Walker again this week; he got the job done last week so the team should not lack confidence in him making plays.  Make no mistake, it is the Browns’ defense that stands out for the team.  I know this is a long ride for the Browns to get to the kickoff, but I really do like that defense to dig in and limit the Seahawks offense.  I’ll take the Browns plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Chiefs – 7 at Broncos (47):  If you like trends, here are two for you:

• Patrick Mahomes has started 12 games against the Broncos.
• In those games the Chiefs’ record is 12-0.

And …

• Patrick Mahomes has started 16 games on the road against AFC West teams.
• In those games, the Chiefs’ record is 16-0.

Give me the Chiefs to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bengals at Niners – 4 (43.5):  The spread opened at 6.5 points and has been inching down over the course of the week; the Total Line opened at 45.5 points and dropped rather quickly to this level.  This is my Game of the Week.  The Niners have lost two in a row and need to right the ship; the Bengals continue to dig out of the early season hole they dug for themselves.  These are two very good teams, and both need this game.  The Niners will be without Deebo Samuel again and they really do need to give Christian McCaffrey a little breather at some point in this game; McCaffrey was on the field for all the offensive snaps last week.

Ravens – 9 at Cards (44.5):  The spread opened at 7.5 points and has been expanding slowly all week.  The Ravens look like a team with an eye on the AFC Championship Game; the Cards look like a team with an eye on a Top-5 Draft Pick next April.

(Sun Nite) Bears at Chargers – 9 (46):  This game came within a millimeter of being the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  If you have followed the Bears’ fortunes this year, you know they can be awful or they can win by 3 scores depending on the phase of the moon.  If you have followed the Chargers’ fortunes this year, you know that their defense can keep any opponent in any game.  The two best things about this game as a nationally televised game are:

1. Folks can see Tyson Bagent (rhymes with “agent”) play and root for a narrative like the one in the horrendous movie, Rudy.
2. Folks can see Justin Herbert demonstrate to Bears’ fans how a QB named “Justin” should play QB in the NFL.

(Mon Nite) Raiders at Lions – 9 (46):  The Total Line opened the week at 44 points.  Both teams wet the bed last week (see above).  The Lions have the better roster and the better coach and the better QB – – even if Jimmy G. can start and finish this game.  I am tempted to take the Lions here but will resist that temptation.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Arizona +3.5 against Oregon St.
• Iowa St – 2.5 over Baylor
• Texans – 3 over Panthers
• Browns +3.5 against Seahawks
• Chiefs – 7 over Broncos.

Also here are two Money Line parlays – – one for college games and one for the NFL…

• Tulane @ minus-400 (over Rice)
• Air Force @ minus-425 (over Colorado St.)
• Oklahoma @ minus-300 (over Kansas)
• $100 wager to win $106

And …

• Ravens @ minus-450
• Chiefs @ minus-350
• Texans @ minus-170
• $100 wager to win $150

            Finally, let me close this out with these words of wisdom from UNC coach, Mack Brown:

“Most players don’t mind drug testing once they realize they don’t have to study for it.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………