Author: Jack

I live in the nearby suburbs of Washington DC.  Obviously, the sports media in this area are focused on coverage of the Washington Commanders; that is their job.  What I have never come to understand is the inability of the fanboys in this area to see glaring weaknesses on the team even if those weaknesses are fully on display week after week after month.  Those folks universally think that the team is one player or one new coach away from a Super Bowl dynasty.  Let me assure anyone reading this and any Commanders’ fanboy who can purge the adrenaline in his/her system for a moment:

• Such is not nearly the case!

Twelve days ago, the Commanders lost embarrassingly to the Giants 31-19.  Yesterday, the Commanders were given the football equivalent of an atomic wedgie on national TV losing to the Cowboys 45-10.  The cries for head coach Ron Rivera’s and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s heads on plates awee loud and persistent last night – – and that is not a huge surprise.  A report earlier this morning said that Del Rio has been “relieved of his duties” as the defensive coordinator and the immediate reaction among the fanboys is that the team is poised to “make a run”.  Just to be clear:

• Such is not going to happen!

The shortcoming facing the Commanders as a team is an overall talent deficiency.  Said deficiency does not go away when you change a coach or a coordinator.  Yes, it might energize a few players for a game or two, but just as you cannot make a high school student smarter with an “IQ-points injection”, you cannot give adult football players more talent than they have gotten through genetics and practice.

The fundamental problem staring the Commanders in the face is the Commanders’ roster.  Once one recognizes that as the fundamental problem, it should become clear that if there is to be a firing, it should be Ron Rivera as the team’s GM and not necessarily Ron Rivera as the head coach.  I believe the team needs new talent-evaluators – – probably from the most junior person in the scouting department all the way through Ron Rivera as the GM and master of the drafting process.  Consider:

• Rivera got both jobs with the franchise in January 2020.  He has overseen four NFL Drafts for the franchise.
• In those 4 drafts, Rivera & Co. have selected 33 players.  Here is how those 33 draftees worked out:

28 players are still with the Commanders either on the roster or the practice squad.

4 players are still in the NFL on other teams.

1 player is no longer in the NFL.

            Rivera & Co. have drafted 40% of the players on the team and what everyone has seen this season – – and most glaringly in the last two weeks – – is that these players are simply not as good as the players on the opposing squads.  The flaw is in the player selection/retention process.

Back at the trading deadline, the Commanders chose to trade both of their starting defensive ends in order to amass “draft capital”.  So, riddle me this:

• What good is “draft capital” wielded by the same folks that produced the draft results above?
• Memo to Josh Harris and investment partners:  Let really smart “football people” advise you regarding the retention or firing of “Ron Rivera as your head coach” but consider the issue of “Ron Rivera as your GM” a done deal.
• You – – need – – a – – new – – GM.

Moving on …  Later today, the NFL will present its first-ever game on Black Friday.  The game will be the Dolphins at the Jets and it will be available on Amazon Prime Video as a free streaming telecast meaning that fans need not subscribe permanently to Prime Video to see the game.  If this initial foray into “Black Friday Football” is deemed to be a success by Amazon and by the NFL, one should expect that “Black Friday Football” would become a recurring thing.

The basis for this new presentation is – – of course – – money.  Amazon paid the NFL $1B for the rights to stream Thursday Night Football but Amazon would stand to lose one Thursday out of the season because of the traditional Thanksgiving Day telecasts which were negotiated and parceled out to other broadcasters.  So, how to make it up to Amazon?

• Create one each “Black Friday Football” game and sell it to Amazon so that Amazon can link the game to potential new subscribers for Prime Video plus to all the expected online shoppers for the day.

Problem solved.

NFL games on Fridays are rare events but they have been around for a while.  I remember that the old AFL – – prior to the merger with the NFL – – used to have a “Friday game” occasionally.  In recent times, “Friday NFL Football” would only happen to accommodate the calendar around Christmas or New Year’s.  I strongly suspect that we are about to witness the birth of a new “tradition” in the US – – Black Friday Football.

Finally, I will close today with this comment from former NFL defensive tackle, Alex Karras:

“I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms – Truman’s and Eisenhower’s.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

A Happy Thanksgiving to one and all …

Let me begin today with a description of Thanksgiving Day by Johnny Carson:

“Thanksgiving is an emotional holiday. People travel thousands of miles to be with people they only see once a year. And then discover once a year is way too much.”

And now down to business …

In a deviation from the norm, Football Friday will take place on Thursday this week.  The reason I am doing that is because I have the time to get the stuff together and put this on the street before today’s football and food orgy and tomorrow’s semi-comatose condition.  So, I shall begin with the usual review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College  =  2-0-0  =>  Season  =  16-8-0
• NFL  =  2-1-0  =>  Season  = 14-11-0
• No Parlays Last Week  =>  Season  = 7-9  =>  Profit = $153

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Syracuse fired Dino Babers as head football coach.  He had one great year winning 10 games but overall has a losing record (41-55) and a losing record in conference games.  Long ago, Syracuse produced players like Jim Brown, Larry Czonka and Ernie Davis.  Over the last 30 years or so, Syracuse is just not a “football school”.  I doubt that is going to change with a new coach there.

Last week, New Mexico State got paid to come to Auburn for an ass-kicking in front of alums there; one report said the payment was $1.8M.  Well NM State was a rude houseguest; the Aggies dominated the game and won 31-10.  Auburn was a 25-point favorite in the game; the Money Line posted for New Mexico St. closed at +1450.  I said the Aggies dominated; here is what I mean:

• NM St Total Offense = 414 yards
• Auburn Total Offense = 209 yards

The Aggies will play Liberty for the C-USA championship next week.

Rumors swirled last week that Chip Kelly was on a hot seat that was approaching solar levels of heat.  Well, last week, the Bruins beat archrival USC 38-20 which may have given pause to those rumors.  We shall see…   That makes 5 losses in the last 6 games for USC and the idea that USC QB, Caleb Williams was the one and only possibility for the Heisman Trophy has gathered a lot of dust.  Question:

• If Kelly was on a hot seat shouldn’t Lincoln Riley be on one now?

The AAC has an interesting situation.  Three teams have conference records of 7-0 – – Texas -San Antonio, Tulane and SMU.  UTSA plays Tulane on Friday; SMU plays Navy on Saturday.  Assuming an SMU victory – – the Mustangs are an 18-point favorite – -, the conference championship will be SMU versus the winner of the UTSA/Tulane game.

The CFP will expand from 4 teams to 12 teams next year.  I am afraid that there could be some very lopsided results from the first-round games in such an expanded tournament, but the revenue that will be generated from the extra 8 games will assure the survival of such an expansion. This year’s four-team field is currently overcrowded with 6 undefeated teams (remember, Liberty has not lost a game yet) trying to squeeze into a four-team field.  One of those unbeaten teams will go down this week in the Ohio St./Michigan game probably clearing the way for the Selection Committee to gather itself before making its final decision on the 2023 participants.

But allow me a flight of fancy for a moment here.  Suppose the football gods sent down a lightening bolt to the earthly football mavens directing them to do a 12-team tournament this year and not to wait until 2024.  What might a 12-team field look like?   Here are nine teams I think would be consensus picks:

1. Alabama
2. Florida St.
3. Georgia
4. Michigan
5. Missouri
6. Ohio St.
7. Oregon
8. Texas
9. Washington

If the football gods demand a team from outside the Power-5 conferences, the Selection Committee can take its pick between:

• AAC champion (could be SMU, Tulane or UTSA) – – or – –
• Liberty – – or – –
• UNLV

And now reality sets in.  One of the things that proponents of an expanded field have said was that more slots would avoid arguments about which team got left out of the short field.  Well, if my field this year now has 10 teams in it, I have to pick two more from a list that has more than two teams on it with a claim to one of the remaining slots.  Pick two from here:

• K-State
• Louisville
• LSU
• Oklahoma
• Oklahoma St.
• Oregon St.
• Penn St.

In a 12-team field, I would expect the Top 8 teams to be rather obvious and sometimes the Top 10.  But the representative from outside the Power-5 and the final team or two in the field will always be controversial.  And no, expanding to 16 teams will not solve the problem; all that will do is push the controversy down the line a bit.

Let me do a review of the important games from last week differently here:

James Madison lost its first game of the year last week in OT to App State.  JMU cannot play for the conference championship for the same dumb reason it cannot be in a bowl game for 2 years after jumping up from Division 1-AA.  However, it can still get a bowl game IF and only IF there are not enough 6-win teams in the country to fill the 82 bowl slots out there.

Louisville beat Miami 38-31and that result guarantees that the ACC Championship Game will be Louisville versus Florida State.

Florida State remained unbeaten last week beating a cupcake in North Alabama by 45 points – – but the Seminoles saw their starting QB, Jordan Travis, carted off the field with a leg injury.  Travis’ season is over; his collegiate career may also be over if he declares for the NFL Draft next spring.

Texas beat Iowa State 26-16 taking one step more toward clinching a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins the Big-12 championship, that gives the Big-12 a shot at being in the CFP as a Power-5 conference champion with only one loss.  No other Big-12 team could do that.

Northwestern became bowl eligible by beating Purdue 23-15.  Given all the turmoil surrounding that program, that is quite an accomplishment.

Iowa beat Illinois and guaranteed the Hawkeyes will be in the Big-10 Championship Game as the West Division representative.  Only once this season has Iowa allowed an opponent to score more than 16 points in a game.  In their last 7 games, the Hawkeyes have yielded a total of only 68 points.

Navy pitched a shutout last week.  That is the third shutout of the season for the Navy defense.  Iowa has ridden its stout defense to the Big-10 West Championship; Navy – – on the other hand – – now has a record of 5-5 and will not be part of the AAC championship picture (see above).     The Army/Navy game could be even more interesting than usual in two weeks.  Army is currently 5-6; Navy is 5-5 and should lose this weekend.  Therefore, when Army and Navy meet:

• It could mean a bowl eligibility for the winner – – PLUS – –
• The Commander in Chief Trophy for Army if it wins the game.

UNLV beat Air Force 31-27 to take possession of the MWC lead.  The Rebels play at home this week against San Jose St who sit one game behind UNLV in the Mountain West standings.

Shedeur Sanders was sacked four times in Colorado’s first 10 plays and was eventually forced out of the game against Washington State.  Things then came apart quickly and Washington State dominated by a score of 56-14.  Colorado is now 4-7 on the season; all 7 losses are conference losses.  If the Buffaloes are going to be “rejuvenated” next year under Coach Prime, they are going to have to bring in some quality talent on both the offensive line and the defensive line.  Colorado’s team speed at the skill positions is impressive – – but games are won and lost in the trenches and Colorado is deficient there.

Arizona beat Utah in a rout and kept alive the possibility of facing Washington in the PAC-12 Championship Game.  Arizona built a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter and put it on cruise control for the rest of the day.

Washington guaranteed itself a place in the PAC-12 Championship game by beating Oregon St.  Next week is the Apple Bowl game for the Huskies against Washington St.  The PAC-12 Championship Game will be Washington versus either Oregon or Arizona.

Here are the teams on my watchlist for the SHOE Tournament as of this morning:

1. Akron  2-9
2. Arizona St.  3-8
3. Baylor  3-8
4. East Carolina  2-9
5. Indiana  3-8
6. Kent St.  1-10
7. La-Monroe  2-9
8. Nevada  2-9
9. Stanford  3-8
10. UConn  2-9
11. UMass  3-8  [Aside:  UMass and UConn play this week.  Oh joy!]
12. Vandy  2-9

One last item of business here is to present the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award:

• UMass gives up 38.5 points per game.
• USF gives up 36.8 points per game.
• North Texas gives up 36.6 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Four quick points before listing the games:

1. I totally missed an important game last week – – Washington/Oregon St.  It was a boneheaded error on my part; I shall seek not to repeat such behavior.
2. There are loads of rivalry games this week.
3. These are early week lines which will probably change – – sometimes significantly – – before game time.
4. There are too many longstanding and heated rivalry games this week to pick one of them as the College Game of the Week – – so I won’t try to do that.

(Fri afternoon) Iowa at Nebraska – 2.5 (26):  I know what you are thinking; that must be a typo for the Total Line; surely it must be higher than 26 points.  Nope.  The Total Line opened at 27.5 points and has been bet down to this level.  Nebraska ranks 121^st in the country in scoring offense; there is no way against the Iowa defense that I could take the Huskers and give points away; but I can take Iowa plus points and so I will; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) TCU at Oklahoma – 10 (63):  The Sooners still have a shot at the Big-12 Championship Game.

(Fri afternoon) Missouri – 7.5 at Arkansas (55):  Missouri has its eye on a New Year’s Day Bowl invitation, and it is the better team.  Even on the road, I like the Tigers to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) Air Force at Boise St. – 6.5 (46):  Air Force started the year 8-0, but they have lost their last 3 games in a row.

(Fri Nite) Oregon St. at Oregon – 14 (62):  Huge rivalry game known as “The Civil War”.

(Fri Nite) UTSA at Tulane – 3 (52):  The winner will play for the AAC Championship.

Ohio St. at Michigan – 3.5 (45):  Huge rivalry game here …  The winner plays for the Big-10 Championship and should be invited to the CFP.

Georgia – 24 at Georgia Tech (60):  This will be the 115^th meeting between the schools.  Georgia leads the series 70-39 with 5 tie games.  The Bulldogs are clearly the better team, but Tech has upset better teams twice this year.  That line just looks ripe for a meaningless late TD to produce a backdoor cover.

Kentucky at Louisville – 7 (50):  The Governor’s Cup is awarded to the winner of this game.  Kentucky has won the last four meetings.

UMass at UConn – 2.5 (50.5):  The loser of this game is definitely in the SHOE Tournament.  The winner might be there too…

Florida St. – 6.5 at Florida (49.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  Both teams will play minus their starting QB.  Florida becomes bowl eligible with a win here.

Va Tech – 2.5 at Virginia (51):  Huge rivalry game here …  Neither team is particularly good this year, but the game will be played with vigor.

Clemson – 7 at South Carolina (51.5):  Huge rivalry game here…  The Gamecocks have won three in a row and are 5-1 at home this year.

UNC – 2.5 at NC State (55):  Both teams bring records of 8-3 to the kickoff.  State has won four games in a row.

Vandy at Tennessee – 27 (56):  This is a rivalry game even though the two teams are rarely of similar caliber.  The first game in the series was in 1892; Tennessee leads the series 77-33 with 5 tie games.

Arizona – `10.5 at Arizona St. (49.5):  Since October 1^st, Arizona is 5-1 and has scored more than 30 points in a game 4 times.  Arizona St. has a 3-8 record this year and was demolished by Oregon last week.

San Jose St. at UNLV – 2.5 (59.5):  The winner plays for the Mountain West championship.

Notre Dame – 25 at Stanford (51.5):  Stanford won this rivalry game last year in South Bend, but Notre Dame leads in the series 21-14.

Washington St. at Washington – 16 (66.5):  Huge rivalry game here …  They call it “The Apple Bowl”.  Since the Huskies are guaranteed to be in the PAC-12 Championship Game, there may be an element of “looking ahead” here.  Washington St. can salvage its season with an upset here…

Alabama – 14.5 at Auburn (48):  Huge rivalry game here…  They call this “The Iron Bowl”.  Alabama leads this series 49-37 with 1 tie game.  Was Auburn “looking ahead” to this game when it lost badly to New Mexico St. last week?  Maybe so – – but it won’t really matter; Alabama is the better team.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers did something unusual this week.  They fired one of their coaches in the middle of the season.  The fan outcry added onto the lack of offensive production for the team over the past couple of seasons convinced Mike Tomlin to jettison offensive coordinator, Matt Canada.  He had been the OC in Pittsburgh for more than 2 seasons and the Steelers’ offense had never produced a 400-yard game in that time.  This year, the Steelers were under 300 yards seven times in ten games.

One of the bloggers who focuses on the Steelers has floated Ben Roethlisberger’s name as a potential replacement next season.  As for the rest of the season, Tomlin chose to name one of his assistants as the new offensive coordinator and another of his assistants as the play-caller.  Interesting …

Having seen a lot of the Steelers so far this year, let me offer – – free of charge of course – – two pieces of advice to the new offensive coordinator and the new play-caller:

1. The featured running back should be Jaylen Warren and not Najee Harris.
2. Teams are “stacking the box” against the Steelers; the offense must attack downfield just to get the linebackers and safeties to back off a bit.

The Colts released Shaq Leonard after their BYE Week.  Leonard was the NFL defensive rookie of the year in 2018 and is hardly a retread even if he is not in the conversation for any significant defensive award in 2023.  Yes, he had a back injury that required surgery, but unless that surgery has been a failure, he still has abilities that NFL teams can use.  I suspect that something is going on behind the scenes here – – especially if no one picks him up quickly.

The Jets announced a change at QB for next week. This is their second change of the season; the first one was involuntary when Aaron Rodgers was injured in Game 1.  Now Zach Wilson will go to the bench after a disappointing season for the Jets.  Wilson was pulled from the game against the Bills last week and replaced there by Tim Boyle whose performance in relief was hardly inspiring.  Here was Boyle’s stat line:

• 7 of 14 for 33 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Nonetheless, coach Robert Saleh is making the change possibly because the Jets under Wilson have only scored 9 offensive TDs in 10 games.  If you are not familiar with the career exploits of Tim Boyle, here is a thumbnail sketch:

• Boyle is 29 years old; he played college football at UConn and E. Kentucky.
• Boyle was an undrafted free agent originally signed by the Packers in 2018.
• Boyle has appeared in 18 games and started 3 times (for the Lions) since 2019.
• For his career he has thrown 3 TDs and 9 INTs.
• He has averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt and 8.2 yards per completion.

I am going to practice mind-reading here – – something I have admitted many times I am incapable of doing.  Nevertheless, when I see Zach Wilson sitting on the bench after throwing an INT or failing to convert a third-down try, I see someone who is not passionate about the game.  What I see is a guy sitting by himself on the bench staring off into the crowd; what I don’t see is a guy huddled with his coach going over images on the laptop computers on the sidelines that led to whatever failure put Wilson on the bench.  He makes me conclude that he really does not give much of a damn about the game in front of him.   Remember, this is mind-reading on my part, and I cannot read minds.  But that is the vibe I get…

The Bengals have lost Joe Burrow to wrist surgery for the rest of the year.  The Bengals are 5-5 and are in last place in the AFC North.  I think the Bengals are toast without Burrow because in addition to losing a star QB, the Bengals’ schedule is daunting indeed:

• Vs. Steelers – – current record is 6-4
• At Jags – – current record is 7-3
• Vs. Colts – – current record is 5-5
• Vs. Vikes – – current record is 6-5
• At Steelers – – current record is 6-5
• At Chiefs – – current record is 7-3
• Vs. Browns – – current record is 7-3.

The Bengals will not face a team that has a losing record as of this morning.  As a matter of fact, their opponents’ combined record as of today is 44 – 28 or a winning percentage of .611.

Just an update on Sam Howell and his sack rate.  The Giants got him 4 times last week, so he has now been sacked 50 times in 11 games.  That projects to 77 sacks for the season which keeps him on track to set a new NFL record.

So, here are comments on last week’s games:

Eagles 21  Chiefs 17:  The Chiefs dominated the stat sheet in many ways:

• Chiefs’ offense = 336 yards   Eagles’ offense = 238 yards
• Chiefs’ third down conversions = 8 of 17    Eagles’ conversions = 3 of 11
• Chiefs ran 74 plays   Eagles ran 54 plays

Add to those disparities the fact that the Chiefs held AJ Brown to 1 catch for 8 yards in the game and it is amazing that the Eagles kept the game close let alone came out with a win.  The Chiefs were shut out in the second half; here are their possessions in the second half:

• 4 plays – – 22 yards – – 2:36 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – 3 yards – – 2:01 time of possession – – PUNT
• 12 plays – – 65 yards – – 5:50 time of possession – – FUMBLE
• 6 plays – – 24 yards – – 2:02 time of possession – – PUNT
• 3 plays – – minus-2 yards – – 0:52 time of possession – – PUNT
• 9 plays – – 25 yards – – 1:21 time of possession – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Texans 21  Cards 16:  The Cards’ defense pitched a shutout in the second half, but the Cards’ offense only managed 6 points in the second half, so the Texans held on for the win.  As of this morning, the Texans’ 6-4 record would have them in the AFC Playoffs as the seventh seed.  Remember, this team won only 3 games last year.  CJ Stroud has been incredible all season but had problems in the red zone last week. The Texans were only 1 of 4 in the red zone, and two of those failed drives were interceptions thrown by Stroud. He threw three interceptions in the game, and all came inside the Arizona 30-yard line.

Lions 31  Bears 26:  The Bears led this game 26-14 with only 4:15 left in the game.  Not to worry, the Lions scored a TD in a little over a minute cutting the lead to 26-21.  The Bears went three-and-out taking only 26 seconds off the clock leaving the Lions time to drive 73 yards in 11 plays to get a winning TD with less than 30 seconds left.  The Bears held the ball for more than 40 minutes in the game and still lost.  Giving a game like that away at the end is something the Lions have been famous for over the years …

Packers 23  Chargers 20:  The Chargers have five losses by three or fewer points this season.  Jordan Love out-played Justin Herbert here.

• 27 of 40 for 322 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs (Love)
• 21 of 36 for 260 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs (Herbert)

Dolphins 20  Raiders 13:  The Dolphins do not use “defense” as their calling card, but in this game the Miami defense held the Raiders scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins’ offense outgained the Raiders by 124 yards in the game; Tyreek Hill caught 10 passes for 146 yards and 1 TD.  Nonetheless, the Raiders hung with the Dolphins until Jalen Ramsey intercepted a pass in the end zone to seal the deal for the Dolphins.  Josh Jacobs had begun to look and play like the defending NFL rushing champ in the previous couple of weeks; not so here; he carried the ball 14 times for only 39 yards.

Cowboys 33  Panthers 10:  This is a typical Cowboys’ performance against a bad team; the Cowboys punish those sorts of teams.  The Cowboys’ defense held the Panthers and Bryce Young to 77 net yards passing for the game.  The Panthers turned the ball over twice and they also gifted the Cowboys 5 first downs on penalties for the day.  This outcome was never in doubt.   The Panthers had minus-3 yards in the fourth quarter on 10 plays.

Giants 31  Commanders 19:  I said last week that the Commanders have a propensity to play down to the level of bad teams.  Well, the Giants were – – and still are – – a bad team; so’ how did the Commanders manage to lose this game?  Let me count the ways:

1. Giants came to the game averaging 11.8 points per game; the Commanders allowed 31 points.
2. Giants came to the game giving up 26.6 points per game on average; the Commanders scored only 17 points.
3. Giants allowed 9 sacks in the game and still won the game.
4. Giants defense gave up 403 yards and still won the game.
5. Commanders ran 77 plays; Giants ran 54 plays; Giants still won the game.
6. Commanders committed 6 turnovers in the game.
7. Commanders had almost 36 minutes time of possession – – and lost.
8. Commanders averaged 6.2 yards per rush attempt – – and lost.

Oh, did I mention that the Giants played their third string QB – – Tommy DeVito – – who had looked overwhelmed in his previous game appearances but who threw 3 TD passes in this game and zero INTs?  This game by the Commanders is the leader in the clubhouse for The NFL Bedwetting of the Year!

Browns 13  Steelers 10:  Totally a defense dominated game on both sides.  The teams combined to go 7 for 31 on third-down conversions.  There were 17 punts in the game.  The Browns only averaged 3.7 yards per pass which is awful until you notice that the Steelers only averaged 2.5 yards per pass attempt.  As noted above, the Steelers fired OC Matt Canada after this game was over.

Jags 34  Titans 14:  The Jags led 27-0 when the Titans finally got on the scoreboard with 5 seconds left to play in the third quarter.  Trevor Lawrence threw 2 TD passes and ran for 2 more TDs in the game.  The Titans are toast.

Niners 27  Bucs 14:  During the Niners’ 3-game losing streak, Brock Purdy played poorly.  Not so here against a good Bucs’ defense:

• 21 of 25 for 333 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

Brandon Aiyuk had a spectacular game catching 5 passes for 156 yards and 1 TD.  This win puts the Niners back in control in the NFC West.

Bills 32  Jets 6:  This game was not as close as the score looks; it was a game where the Bills could do just about anything they wanted to do.

• Bills’ offense = 393 yards
• Jets’ offense = 155 yards

This is the first game the Bills have played with their new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, who got the job when the Bills fired Ken Dorsey about a week ago.

Broncos 21  Vikes 20:  Last year the Vikes were 11-0 in one-score games; this year they have already lost 5 one-score games.   The football gods giveth and the football gods taketh away.  The fact that the Vikes turned the ball over 3 times in the game did not help their cause even a little bit.  The Broncos’ problems in the red zone continued to be on display here; they got to the red zone 5 times and scored only 1 TD.  Nevertheless, the Broncos have now won 4 in a row with is the longest winning streak in the league as of this morning.

 

Games This Week:

 

There are no teams on a BYE Week; from Thursday through Monday, there will be a full slate of 16 NFL games.

Be sure to notice the Total Lines for games this week.  There are four games this week where the Total Line is less than 36.5 points and none of the games is above 48.5 points.

(Thurs early PM) Packers at Lions – 7.5 (46.5):  The Lions have a strong running attack and the Packers’ run defense is not very good.  I like the Lions to win the game, but I do not trust them enough to lay a full TD plus the half-point hook.  A Packers’ loss here would put them 5 games behind the Lions in the NFC North race with only 6 games left to play which translates to “out of it”.

(Thurs late PM) Commanders at Cowboys – 12.5 (48):  The spread opened with the Cowboys only a 9.5-point favorite, but the line has been climbing quickly early in the week.  One Internet sportsbook has the line at 13.5 points indicating to me that there is not a lot of “Commanders money” coming in.  This game will go one of two ways:

1. The Commanders are not good and the Cowboys feast on bad teams and punish them.  The Cowboys have been routing teams at home this year; they are 4-0 at Jerry-world and have won all 4 of those games by 20 points or more.  Outcome #1 would be a Cowboys’ victory by about 30 points.
2. The Commanders play better against good teams than bad teams and the Cowboys are a good team.  The Commanders’ coaches and players have been savaged for a week about the loss to the Giants last week and could come out of the locker room “on a mission”.  Outcome #2 would be a game decided by a field goal by either team as time expires.

You make the call …

(Thurs Nite) Niners – 6.5 at Seahawks (43.5):  This spread opened at 3.5 points.  Geno Smith took a shot to his throwing arm in last week’s game against the Rams; that jump in the spread makes me think the result of that blow is more than a bruise.  If Smith is ineffective or cannot go at all, the Seahawks will trot out Drew Lock for this game.  Good luck with that.  I like the Niners here on the road to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri afternoon) Dolphins – 9 at Jets (41):  The spread opened at 6 points and jumped as soon as Tim Boyle was named as the Jets’ starting QB.  One sportsbook already has the line at 10.5 points meaning that number is much more likely to go up than down.  There is no way I would make a real wager on a team like Jets in the condition they are in, but before you pile on the Dolphins remember that the Jets’ defense is very good, and they were embarrassed last week by the Bills.  Moreover, the Dolphins are much better at home than they are on the road.  This is a game to avoid at the betting window.

Jags – 1 at Texans (47.5):  The Texans beat the Jags in Jax earlier this year; a season sweep would assure the Texans of any tiebreaker that might come into play regarding the playoffs.  Moreover, a Texans’ win here would put them in first place thanks to that tiebreaker in the AFC South Division.  In terms of trends, Trevor Lawrence is only 1-4 against the Texans in his career.

Bucs at Colts – 2.5 (43.5):  The Colts had a BYE Week last week and this is a second straight road game for the Bucs.  Both teams need this game to keep pace in their Division races.

Pats – 3 at Giants (34):  This game was my runner-up as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The teams arrive at the kickoff with a combined record of 5-16.  Neither team scores points; the Pats average 14.1 points per game; the Giants – – despite their outburst last week against the Commanders – – average 13.5 points per game.  No wonder the Total Line is 34 points,

Panthers at Titans – 3.5 (36.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Panthers are awful; the Titans are not quite as bad.  Here is how bad the Titans’ OL is this year:

• Derrick Henry is only averaging 66.3 yards per game rushing.
• Last year was considered a ‘down-year” for Henry when he averaged 96.1 yards per game.

Give thanks if you are in a part of the country where this game will not be shown in your viewing area.

Steelers – 1 at Bengals (34.5):  The Bengals were 3-point favorites until the news that Joe Burrow is done for the year hit the streets.  At the moment, you can find this line anywhere from “pick ‘em” to Steelers minus-2.5.  The Bengals will play a question mark at QB; the Steelers will have question marks at offensive coordinator and at play-caller (see above).  You think I am going to make a pick in a game like that?

Saints at Falcons “pick ‘em” (42): Hard to believe, but this game actually is an important one because the Saints lead the NFC South with a 5-5 record and the Falcons are only 1 game back.  That being said, I am really not that interested in seeing these two teams go at it…

Rams at Cards – 1 (44.5):  The spread started out at Rams minus-2 points but shifted to this number early in the week.  Kyler Murray has played well in his two starts after injury rehab and the Rams’ defense is not what it was a couple of years ago.  I am tempted to take the Cards but will resist …

Browns at Broncos – 1.5 (35):  The spread opened with the Browns as 2-point favorites, but money flows have changed the favorite.  Dorian Thompson-Robinson played very well last week in his first start; this will be his first road start and Denver is not an easy place for a rookie QB to play.  Buti think the Browns’ defense will be the deciding factor here and it will be motivated because as of now the Browns would be in the playoffs – – and that is something they want to have continue to be the case.  I expect a low scoring game but rather than take the game to stay UNDER, I will take the Browns plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bills at Eagles – 3 (48.5):  This is clearly the Game of the Week.  The Bills are only 1-3 on the road this year and the Eagles are 4-0 at home.  Clearly, that favors the Eagles in this game.  By the same token, the Eagles could be in for a significant letdown after beating the Chiefs last week and then looking ahead to games against the Niners and Cowboys in the next two weeks.  This is a must-win for the Bills because a loss here would be their 6^th loss of the season already with the next two games on the schedule being the Chiefs and Cowboys.

Chiefs – 9 at Raiders (42):  The Chiefs need to figure out how to get their offense back on track; the Raiders have played better since their coaching change.

(Sun Nite) Ravens – 3.5 at Chargers (48):  I know the Chargers keep games close (see above), but I think they are overmatched here against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ defense.  I like the Ravens to win comfortably here; I’ll take them and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Bears at Vikes – 3 (43):  The Vikes need this game to keep their playoff march in stride.  The Bears are basically playing out the string to see what sort of draft pick they will get come April.  The Vikes are clearly the better team top-to-bottom – – but I am not quite fully on-board the Josh Dobbs bandwagon…

Let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Missouri – 7.5 over Arkansas
• Iowa +2.5 against Nebraska
• Niners – 6.5 over Seahawks
• Browns +1.5 against Broncos
• Ravens – 3.5 over Chargers.

            And for fun, here is a Money Line Parlay:

• Lions @ moinus-300
• Niners @ minus-310
• Dolphins @ minus-420   $100 wager to win $118.

Finally, some words from Erk Russell – – former head football coach at Georgia Southern:

“At Georgia Southern, we don’t cheat.  That costs money, and we don’t have any.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The tempest in a teapot from late last week seems to be quieting down for now.  Charissa Thompson dared to reveal that at times in her days as a sideline reporter, she sometimes made up quotes from coaches who did not or would not talk to her going into or out of halftime.  The reactions to such revelations were predictably over the top.

Journalists immediately recoiled in horror at the word “fabrication”. What most real sports journalists failed to take into consideration is the simple fact that sideline reporters are no more “journalists” than they are “unicyclists”.  Sideline reporters are entertainers; the only “news they break” involves on-field injuries.  None of their on-air interviews before/during/after the games amounts to a dram of doggy dooty.

• Interview just before opening kickoff = “Coach, what do you need to do today to come away with a win?”  Response should = “Score more points than they do.”
• Interview as teams leave the field for halftime = “Coach, you gave up 225 yards rushing in the first half, what do you need to do to rectify that?”  Response should = “We have to tackle the guy with the ball sooner.”
• Interview as teams come back from halftime = “Coach, what was your message to your team in the locker room?””  Response should = “Well, I can’t really say that on the air, but I told them they need to play a lot better?”
• Interview after the game = “Coach, so how does it feel to come out of here with a win?”  Response should = “Lots better than if we had lost, but a win is a win, and we’ll have to put this behind us and get ready for next week starting tomorrow morning.”

How’s that for hard-hitting reporting …?

• [Aside:  I will exclude from the above condemnation of sideline reporting the work done by the folks who were on the field reporting during the Damar Hamlin event last year.  Those folks provided real information and real reporting.  If you cannot tell the difference between what those reporters did and what is generally the content of sideline reporting “on any given Sunday”, I will never have the time and space to explain it to you.]

Other sideline reporters took great umbrage at such a revelation saying over and over again that they had never done anything of the sort, nor would they ever do so even to save the life of their firstborn.  This is purely a personal reaction to such weeping and wailing but methinks those other reporters do protest too much.  I have maintained for years that networks could save money by eliminating the position of “sideline reporter” and not lose a single audience participant.  I have been watching NFL football on television for about 70 years now and I can say with certainty that I have never tuned into or out of a telecast based on who the sideline reporter was or was not.

In this era of hyper-political correctness in speech, it is not de rigueur to suggest that more than a few sideline reporters are there as much for their eye-candy value as for anything else.  For those who take offense here just let me say that a guilty conscience needs no accusations…

And speaking of political incorrectness, a high school football coach in Georgia has been terminated from his coaching job for reasons that do not relate to his won/lost record and there are no allegations that he had any sort of illicit relationship with any of his players.  What he did was simply out of phase with societal norms in the US in 2023.

• After a practice one day, the coach held a Christian baptism session for some of the players on the team.

Not surprisingly, that event drew protest from outside the school district and the powers that be there decided to fire the coach – – and at the same time covering a flank by declaring that the firing had to do with matters other than the baptism event.

Let me be clear; what this coach did was not some sort of heinous behavior that endangered his community.  What he did was so unbelievably tone deaf regarding the way people react to such things in the US in 2023.  It is hard to imagine that the coach intended any harm to anyone participating in the ceremony, but it is equally difficult to imagine that he did not anticipate the reaction that followed from the ceremony.

Moving on …  Congratulations to the Montreal Alouettes as the CFL Gray Cup Champion for 2023; they beat the Winipeg Blue Bombers 28-24 last weekend.  Montreal was a big underdog in the game with the line closing at Winnipeg – 9 points.  The Bombers led 24-21 late in the 4^th quarter but the Alouettes scored a TD on a final drive with less than two minutes left in the game to secure the win.  This is the first Gray Cup victory for Montreal since 2010; this is the fourth season in a row where the Blue Bombers have been the Western division representative in the Gray Cup Game.

Finally, apropos of nothing, I will close with this entry from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Materialism:  A belief that gaining more and more possessions will eventually provide one with happiness.  Of all personal belief systems, this one is the most fun to try and prove wrong.”

But don t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I saw a meme on the Internet that said:

• “Friday is my second favorite ‘F-word’.  Food is the first.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central, it would be a three-way dead heat between “
Friday, Food, and Football.  Nirvana would be sitting down on a Friday morning with a slice of cold pizza within reach as I hit the keyboard to turn out another Football Friday.

As is customary, let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• College  =  0-2-0  =>  Season  =  14-8-0
• NFL  = 1-1-0   =>   Season  =  12-10-0
• Parlays  =  0-1  =>  Loss  =  $100   =>   Season  =  7-9   Profit  = $153

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats lost last week to Whitworth University 28-24 to finish the season with a record of 8-1.  The loss was a conference game and that makes Whitworth the Northwest Conference Champion for 2023.  That is only the second time in 13 years that Linfield has not been Northwest Conference champion.  Congrats to the Whitworth Pirates on their championship season and congrats to the Linfield Wildcats for their 67^th consecutive winning season in football.

If you go looking for a College Football Coach of the Year, please be sure to look at the job done by David Braun in 2023.  If you are asking yourself, “Who is David Braun?”, do not be embarrassed.  Last year he was at North Dakota State and over the winter he took a new job as a defensive coordinator at a Power-5 school.  That school was Northwestern, and he was named interim-head coach at Northwestern about an hour before the season started when the school fired Pat Fitzgerald over hazing incidents there.  One of the Important attributes Braun brought to that selection process for an interim coach was that he was not part of the Northwestern football program when the hazing happened.

Well, if you check the Big-10 West standings this morning, you will see that Northwestern’s record is 5-5 which is probably about three games better than anyone would have predicted back in August.  Moreover, three of those wins are over Big-10 opponents.  Northwestern has two games left on the schedule and can make it to a bowl game by winning either one.  Their opponents:

• Purdue – – record today is 3-7
• Illinois – – record today is 5-5

Folks at Northwestern have taken note of all this; and earlier this week, they named David Braun as the permanent head coach there.  That seems like a good move to me.

The fans at Northwestern should feel unmitigated joy at the results of their 2023 football season.  For the fans at Texas A&M, there are probably mixed feelings.

• Yet again, the team with the loftiest of expectations is a distant also-ran in their division in their conference.  Bummer!
• However, the coach has been fired and everyone expects the Aggies to go and get a top-shelf coach to replace him.  Hope springs eternal!

I said before that the job at Texas A&M is one to take because the pay will be outstanding, but the odds are that the new coach will never live up to expectations there which are now and will continue to be occasional national championships and perennial contenders for national championships.  I think those aspirations are ridiculous, but they exist.  Having no emotional attachment to Texas A&M, let me offer a couple of data points to explain why I think those aspirations are ridiculous:

• The last – – and only – – time Texas A&M won a national championship in football was in 1939.  Ted Williams was a rookie outfielder for the Boston Red Sox in 1939.
• In 2011, Texas A&M left the Big-12 Conference where they were dominated by Texas and Oklahoma and moved to the SEC West where they have been dominated by Alabama and LSU.

Almost immediately after Jimbo Fisher’s firing had been announced and as the shock over the size of his buyout abated, names were floated as to his replacement.  What I find interesting is that as soon as some names were mentioned, the individuals dismissed the rumor saying they were not interested.

Money talks when it comes to football coaches and the Aggies’ boosters have Texas oil money in their pockets.  So, until the athletic department there begins to money-whip coaching candidates [Hat tip to Dan Jenkins for “money-whip”] we do not know if any of the current job-deniers might change their mind.  A of this morning however:

• Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions) – – not interested.
• Dan Lanning (Oregon) – – not interested.
• Deion Sanders (Colorado) – – not interested.

Related to the coaching search about to happen at Texas A&M, I ran across a tidbit that made me shake my head.  An alum at Texas A&M has volunteered to be part of the process to identify the new coach and to add whatever he can to make sure the right guy gets the job.  Sounds like an offer the Athletic Director should jump at, no?  Well, that former Aggie is none other than Johnny Manziel.

• So, if you were the AD at Texas A&M, do you return Manziel’s phone call?

It is time to review games from last weekend; I’ll start with the ACC:

Louisville 31  Virginia 24:  Louisville is 9-1 for the season and UVA is 2-8.  You might have expected a far larger of margin of victory here.

Clemson 42  Ga Tech 21:  I said last week that this was not the place for Ga Tech to go looking for that one more win it needs to become bowl eligible…

Florida State 27  Miami 20:  The Seminoles remain unbeaten at 10-0 and are squarely in the CFP picture.    The Hurricanes kept pace in the game producing a very even stat sheet – – but Florida State takes home the win.

UNC 47  Duke 45 (2OT):  UNC outgained Duke by 157 yards in the game; normally, that does not translate into “double overtime”.  The Tar Heels are a game behind Louisville for second place in the ACC.  The ACC Championship Game will match the first and second place teams.

In SEC action …

Alabama 49  Kentucky 21:  Kentucky scored first; then the score was 28-7 at the half.  Alabama outgained Kentucky by almost 200 yards.  The game was as lopsided as the score would indicate…

South Carolina 47  Vandy 6:  This game was “close” at the half; the Gamecocks only led 13-0.  Then came the deluge ….

Missouri 36  Tennessee 7:  Tennessee was dominated here.  The Vols’ only TD came on a 46-yard pass completion.  But in terms of other possessions, Tennessee had 8 possessions of less than 2 minutes and 30 seconds on the clock.

Auburn 38  Arkansas 10:  Two weeks ago, Arkansas beat Florida in Gainesville – – so where was that Arkansas team last week?

Georgia 52  Ole Miss 17:  The Bulldogs seem to have cured their offensive ills from earlier this year; the Dawgs have scored 30 or more points in their last 5 games.  Georgia amassed 611 yards in this game against a team that had only lost once this year.  Georgia only had to punt once in the game and scored TDs on their first 4 possessions.  This was an old-fashioned ass-kicking.

LSU 52  Florida 35:  Florida is 5-5 for the season and needs a win in the next two games to be bowl eligible.  That could be a tall task:

• This week – – at Missouri whose current record is 8-2
• Next week – – home against Florida St. whose current record is 10-0.

LSU is now 7-3 with the losses coming against Florida St., Alabama and Ole Miss.  LSU QB Jayden Daniels did something no one has ever done in college football.  He passed for 372 yards AND he ran for 234 yards in one game.

Texas A&M 51  Mississippi St. 10:  Both coaches were fired after this game.  I don’t recall that happening before.  The job coaching the Aggies is a great way to “get paid”.  The job coaching the Bulldogs is the modern equivalent of Sisyphus pushing his rock up the hill.

Moving along to the Big-10 …

Michigan 24  Penn St. 15:  Penn State posted a late TD to make the score seem more respectable than it was.  Michigan dominated play leaving no doubt they are the better team.

Iowa 22 Rutgers 0:  This was an offensive explosion for Iowa scoring 22 points and producing 402 yards of offense in a single game.  Nevertheless, it was the Iowa defense that stood out holding Rutgers to 127 yards of total offense for the game.  Rutgers tried to run the ball 23 times in the game and gained a total of 34 yards on those attempts.  Iowa now leads the Big-10 West by two full games.

Northwestern 24  Wisconsin 10:  Both teams are 5-5 this season; both teams are 3-4 in conference games this season. I doubt that many – if any – folks at either school saw that coming.

Ohio St. 38  Michigan St. 3:  All you need to know about this game is right here:

• Ohio St. Total Offense = 530 yards
• Michigan St. Total Offense = 182 yards

Last week in the Big-12 …

K-State 59  Baylor 25:  In addition to dominating the game offensively, K-State scored touchdowns on a Scoop-and-Score plus a Pick-Six.

Texas Tech 16  Kansas 13:  The Jayhawks rallied to tie the game at 13 apiece with 26 seconds left in the game.  The Red Raiders took the kickoff and in 4 plays they had gained 63 yards which was enough for them to kick a 30-yard field goal to win the game.

UCF 45  Oklahoma St. 3:  I took the Cowboys to win and cover in this game in last week’s “Betting Bundle”.  I did worry about a letdown for Oklahoma St. after a big win over Oklahoma two weeks ago – – but this was way more than a letdown:

• UCF Total Offense = 592 yards
• Oklahoma St. total Offense – 277 yards

And …

• UCF yards per pass attempt = 13.9 yards per attempt
• Oklahoma St. yards per pass attempt = 5.4 yards per attempt

Oklahoma St. is tied with Iowa State and Oklahoma for second place in the Big-12 today; all three teams are a game behind Texas. Iowa State plays Texas this week.  An Iowa St. upset would give 4 teams 2 conference losses each and take everyone deep into Tiebreaker Territory to sort out which two teams would play for the conference championship.

Oklahoma 59  W. Virginia 20:  This game was never in doubt …

Texas 29  TCU 26:  Texas led 26-6 at the start of the 4^th quarter and held on for an important win that keeps them atop the Big-12 standings this morning.

Some PAC-12 games …

Washington 35  Utah 28:  Washington continues undefeated in 2023.  Utah led 28-24 at halftime but never found a score in the second half.  Here are the Utah possessions in the second half:

• 3 plays – – 3 yards – – PUNT
• 3 plays – minus-3 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 56 yards – – INT
• 1 play – – minuis-1 yard – – SAFETY
• 3 plays – – 3 yards – – PUNT
• 4 plays – – 0 yards – – INT

Cal 42  Washington St. 39:  Washington St outgained Cal by 156 yards in the game.  Normally, that wins a game.  Here the Cougars turned the ball over 4 times and Cal only turned it over twice.

Oregon St. 62  Stanford 17:  The Beavers generated 598 yards of offense in the game.  Stanford turned the ball over 4 times in the game.  Hence the result …

Oregon 36  USC 27:  Bo Nix outplayed Caleb Williams on this day:

• 23 of 31 for 412 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INT (Nix)
• 19 of 34 for 291 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT (Williams)

Arizona 34  Colorado 31:  The Buffaloes led 31-24 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Colorado had a shot to tie the game but missed a 42-yard field goal with 2 minutes left on the clock.

In miscellaneous games last week …

La-Monroe 34  La-Lafeyette 31:  This is the third win of the year for ULM probably taking them out of consideration for the SHOE Tournament.

  SMU 45  North Texas 21:    SMU is 8-2 over the season.  The two losses were to Oklahoma and TCU.  Ignoring SMU’s demolition of a Division 1-AA opponent, here is the Mustangs performance against the rest of their schedule:

• SMU  316
• Opponents  102

In my neighborhood, that was called “domination”.

Tulane 24  Tulsa 22:  Tulane is now 9-1.  In their last 3 games they have beaten Rice by 2 points, E. Carolina by 3 points and Tulsa by 2 points.  And they are likely to get a New Year’s Day Bowl bid…  For the record, none of those last three victims are any good…

Hawaii 27  Air Force 13:  That is a second loss for the Falcons and their first loss in conference making the Mountain West race interesting.

UNLV 34  Wyoming 14:  Here is why the Mountain West race is interesting:  As of this morning:

• Air Force and UNLV have conference records of 5-1
• Fresno St., Boise St. and San Jose St. have conference records of 4-2
• This week, UNLV plays Air Force in Colorado Springs and air force finishes the season at Boise St.
• UNLV will play San Jose St after this week’s game against Air force.
• Fresno St. will be favored in its last two games (New Mexico and San Diego St.

You get the idea…

So, which teams are on the watchlist for the SHOE Tournament as of today?

1. Akron – – 2-8
2. Ball St. – – 3-7
3. East Carolina – – 2-8
4. Kent St. – – 1-9
5. Nevada – – 2-8
6. Pitt – – 2-8
7. Southern Mississippi – – 3-7
8. Stanford – – 3-7
9. UConn – – 1-9
10. UMass – – 3-7
11. Vandy – – 2-9
12. Virginia – – 2-8

Here is a quick update on the teams contending for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award:

• UAB gives up 37.4 points per game.
• UMass gives up 37.4 points per game.
• North Texas gives up 37.5 points per game.

This race to the bottom could go down to the wire…

 

Games Of Interest This Week:

 

Appalachian St. at James Madison – 9 (55.5):  Just so you remember, James Madison is undefeated in 2023 with a record of 10-0.

Michigan St. at Indiana – 3.5 (47):  These two teams have conference records of 1-6; every other team in the Big-10 has won at least 2 conference games.

Georgia – 10 at Tennessee (59):  The Dawgs are locked in as the SEC East representative for the SEC Conference Championship Game.  Could that take some of the edge off the team here?

Louisville – 1 at Miami (46):  Louisville is 9-1 for the season and 6-1 in conference games.  Miami is 6-4 for the season and 2-4 in conference games.  The oddsmakers seem not to have paid much attention to those records.

Florida at Missouri – 11 (56.5):  In its last 4 games, Florida has given up 170 points.  Missouri averages 32.8 points per game.  I think this game turns into a shoot-out, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle.”

Kentucky – 1 at South Carolina (54):  The Gamecocks have won two in a row and are 4-1 at home this year…

NC State at Va Tech – 3 (43.5):  State is 3-1 on the road this year; Tech is 4-1 at home this year.

UNC at Clemson – 7 (59):  The Tar Heels cannot afford another conference loss; Clemson is out of the picture for the ACC Championship Game.  Interestingly, this is only the third road game for UNC om 2023; they have split the first two road games.

East Carolina at Navy – 3 (32):  E. Carolina averages 18.1 points per game; Navy averages 19.7 points per game – – in case you are wondering why the Total Line is so low.

Purdue – 3 at Northwestern (47):  Northwestern needs this win to earn a bowl bid and they are 4-1 at home this year.  Do not mistake Purdue for a good team; their record in 2023 is 3-7.  For the most part in 2023, Purdue has been more like Purr-don’t.

Kent St. at Ball St. – 13 (41):  Both teams on the SHOE Tournament watchlist this week…

Illinois at Iowa – 3 (31): Iowa averages 18.8 points per game and gives up an average of 12.3 points per game.  Illinois averages 23.8 points per game and gives up an average of 29.3 points per game.  Given those stats, I am surprised the spread is as low as it is.

K-State – 7 at Kansas (56.5):  K-State is 1-3 on the road this year; Kansas is 5-1 at home this year.

UMass at Liberty – 27.5 (63):  Just so you remember, Liberty is undefeated in 2023 with a record of 10-0.  UMass is in the running for the Brothel Defense Award this year; should be an ugly result…

Oregon – 24 at Arizona St. (54.5):  Oregon needs to keep winning if it is to face off against Washington (again) for the PAC-12 Championship.

UCLA at USC – 7 (65.5):  Rumors say that Chip Kelly may be on his way out at UCLA.  An upset here would quiet those rumors.

Cal – 7 at Stanford (55): They call this “The Game”.  Neither team is particularly good this year but the intensity in this game will be high.

SMU – 8 at Memphis (65):  Memphis gives up 28.9 points per game; SMU scores 40.9 points per game.  By the way, Memphis can score too; they average 39.7 points per game.  That Total Line looks low to me; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Texas – 7.5 at Iowa St. (46.5):  Texas leads the Big-12 with only one conference loss; Iowa St. is one of four teams with 2 conference losses.  A win for Iowa St here is a win for chaos.

UNLV at Air Force – 3 (47):  The winner here will be the leader in the Mountain West Conference on Sunday morning.  Air Force has lost two games in a row; UNLV has won two games in a row.  Air Force is undefeated at home this year; UNLV is 3-2 on the road this year.

Nebraska at Wisconsin – 5 (37):  Both teams are 5-5 overall this year and 3-4 in Big 10 conference games.  Nebraska has lost two games in a row; Wisconsin has lost three games in a row.

Harvard at Yale – 1.5 (56.5):  On the East Coast, they call this “The Game”.  The first time these teams played one another was in 1875; for the record, Ulysses S. Grant was President of the US in 1875.  Yale leads in the series 69-61-8.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The NFL loves parity so the league execs must have been cheery last week when five games ended on a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation time and a total of eight games were decided by four or fewer points.  And recall, there was not a full slate of games last week; those eight games won by 4 points or fewer were out of a total of 14 games not 16 games.

The Steelers won again last weekend raising their record to 6-3.  The amazing thing about that record is that the Steelers have been outgained by their opponents in all nine games.  It is too much work to try to find out if that has ever happened before, but I would wager that it has not happened twice before.

Here is another oddity from the standings and the stats.  The Bills record is 5-5.  Their point differential for the season is +78.  Compare those numbers with:

• Colts same record at 5-5 but point differential is minus-6
• Raiders same record at 5-5 but point differential is minus-33
• Saints same record at 5-5 but point differential is +16
• Bengals better record at 5-4 but point differential is minus-10
• Steelers better record at 6-3 but point differential is minus-26
• Jags better record at 6-3 but point differential is +6
• Seahawks better record at 6-3 but point differential is minus-1.

I was killing some time earlier this week and was flipping through a Mock Draft for next April.  I happened to notice that the creator had the 7^th overall pick going to the LA Rams.  Given the way the Rams have traded away high draft picks over the past several years, I wondered how long it has been since the Rams participated in the first round of an NFL Draft.  It turns out that was back in 2016 when they took Jared Goff with the overall #1 pick.

The NFL and the NFLPA have reached an agreement as to what to do with the Pro Bowl at the end of this season.  Like last year, there will be a “skills competition” followed by a 7-on-7 flag football game to end the weekend festivities.  That is what happened last year but since the existing CBA still has 7 years to go and the Pro Bowl was part of the negotiations that led to that CBA, the league and the union must negotiate every year on what to do with the Pro Bowl.  Ho-hum …

Keeping pace with some ongoing stats:

• The Steelers gained more than 300 yards in last week’s game – – not enough to outgain the opponent but more than 300 yards.  That is only the third time in nine games the Steelers have gone over 300 yards.
• The Steelers have now gone 43 consecutive games without gaining 400 yards on offense in a game.
• Sam Howell was sacked 3 times last week raising his total for 2023 to 46 sacks taken.  That projects to 78 sacks for the season which is only two sacks more than the all-time NFL record.

Here are comments on last week’s games:

Colts 10  Pats 6:  This game was played in Germany where “futbol” is a low-scoring endeavor.  I wonder if the fans think this is a normal amount of scoring in a “football”: game?  The Pats outgained the Colts by 76 yards in the game.  The Pats are 2-8 for the season and have scored a total of 30 points in their past three games.  Not surprisingly, those last three games were all losses.

Browns 33  Ravens 31:  The Ravens led 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and led 24-9 with three minutes to play in the third quarter – – and then choked the game away.  The Ravens still lead the AFC North, but things have tightened up significantly there; all four teams have records above .500.   Deshaun Watson went 14 for 14 in the second half; Greg Newsome had a Pick-Six in the second half and the Browns won on a field goal as time expired.  That was the good news for Cleveland…

Deshun Watson broke a bone in his shoulder in the second half of the game and had season-ending surgery earlier this week.  Back at the end of Training Camp, the Browns released Josh Dobbs and kept PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the backup QBs.  Thompson-Robinson is the announced starter for this week; he has started one game earlier this season and the results were not so good:

• 17 of 30 for 130 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs

Vikes 27  Saints 19:  Speaking of Josh Dobbs, he had another excellent game for the Vikes:

• 23 of 34 for 268 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT

Derek Carr had to leave the game with a concussion meaning the Saints turned to Jameis Winston at QB.  As is often the case with Winston, it was feast or famine.  In less than a half of action he threw 2 TD passes and 2 INTs.   The Saints lead the NFC South with a 5-5 record.  However, none of the 5 wins have been against teams that are over.500.

Steelers 23  Packers 19:  The Steelers were outgained yet again in this game, and they won because of their defense and turnovers. The Steelers’ running game was firing on all cylinders here gaining 205 yards on 35 carries.  Patrick Peterson blocked a Packers’ PAT which proved important because it forced the Packers to score a TD on the final drive instead of merely getting into field goal position.

Texans 30  Bengals 27:  The Texans led 20-7 midway through the third quarter, but the Bengals rallied to tie the score at 27 with a minute and a half left in the game.  The Texans proceeded to take the kickoff and gain 55 yards on 6 plays setting up a game winning field goal of 38 yards.

Niners 34  Jags 3:  I only need to present two sets of stats from this game to give you a sense of how things went down:

• Niners’ Total Offense = 437 yards
• Jags’ Total Offense = 221 yards

And …

• Niners’ Turnovers = 0
• Jags’ Turnovers = 4

Deebo Sameul and Trent Williams returned to action for the Niners in this game.  The defense was very good too sacking Trevor Lawrence 5 times and intercepting him twice.

Cards 25  Falcons 23:  Kyler Murray returned to action for the Cards; he threw for 249 yards and ran for a TD in the game.  The Falcons led 23-22 with 2:39 left in the game but the Cards drove 70 yards in 11 plays to set up the game winning field goal (23 yards) with two seconds on the clock.

Bucs 20  Titans 6:  Will Levis played like a rookie QB in this one.

• 19 of 39 for 199 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT

The Titans’ running game was not particularly helpful to the rookie QB gaining all of 42 yards in the game on 16 carries.

Lions 41  Chargers 38:  The teams combined for 954 yards of offense in the game. With less than two minutes left in the game and the score tied at 38, the Lions had the ball at the Chargers 26 yardline. Dan Campbell went for it on fourth and two.  His reasoning was that he did not want to give Justin Herbert and the Chargers the ball with that much time left on the clock.  The Lions gained 6 yards on the fourth down attempt; they then knelt three times to take the clock down to 3 seconds and the Lions won the game on a last-second field goal of 41 yards.  Coach Campbell was probably cognizant of this fact as he made his decision to go for it on fourth down:

• The Chargers had scored a TD the last five times that they had the ball.
  

Cowboys 49  Giants 17:  The highlight of the game for the Giants was stopping the Cowboys at the goal line on the Cowboys’ first possession.  After that, it was all downhill.  The Cowboys had 640 yards of offense; the Giants only produced 172 yards of offense.  The Giants scored 10 meaningless points in the 4^th quarter making this debacle seem less awful than it was.  In their two meetings this year, the combined score is Cowboys 89 Giants 17.

Seahawks 29  Commanders 26:  Geno Smith and Sam Howell both had big days here:

• 31 of 47 for 369 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT (Smith)
• 29 of 44 for 312 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INT (Howell)

The Seahawks took the lead with a TD at the 3:47 mark of the 4^th quarter but Howell drove the Commanders for a TD to tie the game at 26 with 52 seconds left in the game.  Smith connected with DK Metcalf twice for a total of 45 yards in a final drive to set up a 42-yard game winning field goal with no time remaining.

Raiders 16  Jets 12:  The Jets uncharacteristically outgained an opponent by almost 100 yards in the game, but they did stay in character and found a way to lose.   Once again, Zach Wilson couldn’t get the Jets into the end zone. He threw an interception at the Raiders 15 yardline with 1:14 left to assure the loss.

Broncos 24  Bills 22:  This was purely a self-inflicted wound for the Bills.  RB, James Cook fumbled the ball on the Bills’ first play from scrimmage and then the Bills proceeded to turn the ball over three more times in the game. On the Broncos’ winning drive, Will Lutz appeared to lose the game by missing a 41-yard field goal, but the Bills had 12 men on the field. Lutz then made the do-over.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams will have their BYE Week this week.  Interestingly, none of the four teams has a record north of .500.

1. Colts:  Minshew-Magic happens just about every game.  However, sometimes it is Black Magic.  Maybe the Colts should be looking for an exorcist this week?
2. Falcons:  The only way the Faqlcons make the playoffs is to win their division; an 8-9 record just might do that.
3. Pats:  They are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs – – but they are not going to get in this year.
4. Saints:  They lead the NFC South now, but they need Derek Carr back from any concussion-related injuries if they are going to win the division in the end.

A word about last night’s game.  Had it been on the Sunday schedule, I might have called it the Game of the Week because of the divisional importance of the game.  And as it began, the game looked as if it would live up to that standard.  And then, Joe Burrow’s sprained wrist gave out and the mystery about who might win the game evaporated.  The situation for the Bengals now is dire:

• Their record is 5-5, putting them 2.5 games behind the Ravens.
• They have 5 losses already; all the other AFC North teams only have 3.
• They have now lost 3 division games.
• As of today, every Bengals’ opponent for the rest of the year is at or over .500.

If Joe Burrow’s wrist injury persists for even a few weeks, I think the Bengals may find themselves outside the playoffs looking in.

There is an overabundance of huge spreads on the board for this week’s NFL games.  Four games this morning are carrying double-digit spreads and another game opened the week at 10 points before sliding down a bit.  C’est la guerre …

Steelers at Browns – 1 (33):  Two very good defenses here take the field against two mediocre QBs.  If the Steelers can run the ball, they might be able to win the game but if they are forced to move the ball through the air, I think they are doomed.  For the Browns, they have to hope that Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays a whole lot better than he did in his first NFL start earlier this year (see above).  If you like offensive fireworks, watch some other game…

Cards at Texans – 5 (49):  This game is a complete toss-up for me – – not just involving the spread but on the Money Line too.  If you can rationally figure out how this game will unfold, let me know.

Chargers – 3 at Packers (44):  As is always the case once November rolls around, the big question for NFL bettors is:  Which Chargers team will show up this week?

• Against the Dolphins and Lions, the Chargers scored 34 points or more – – and lost.
• The Chargers’ defense held the Chiefs to 31 points and the Cowboys to 20 points – – and lost both games.

I expect both teams to be up for this game because both teams need a win badly.  I think both defenses will show vulnerability, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Giants at Commanders – 10 (37):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Giants are 2-8 and have a point differential of minus-148 points for the season.  Calling their offense “pedestrian” is an insult to every pedestrian in every city on Earth.  On the other hand, the Commanders have a 20-year history of playing down to the level of bad opponents.  Earlier this year the Commanders lost to the then winless Bears allowing the Bears to score 40 points in the game.

Titans at Jags – 7 (40):  This will be the third straight road game for the Titans; what did they do to piss off the NFL schedule mavens?  The Jags should arrive in a bad mood after being stomped last week by the Niners.

Bears at Lions – 7.5 (47):  The spread opened at 10 points this week but dropped quickly to 8 points and is now shaved to 7.5 points.  Is this the week Justin Fields returns to action?

Raiders at Dolphins – 13 (46.5):  The key to this game is Maxx Crosby and his defensive compatriots.  If they can hassle Tua Tagovailoa, they can win this game; if they give Tua time in the pocket, the Raiders’ secondary will be torched.  The Dolphins had their BYE Week last week and are unbeaten at home in 2023.

Cowboys – 10 at Panthers (42):  You know I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games.  Nevertheless, this game sets up as one that will play according to form.  The Cowboys feast on bottom-feeders.  This year they have beaten the Giants twice outscoring them 89-17.  They beat the Jets by 20 points, the Pats by 35 points, the Rams by 23 points.  The Panthers are a mess mainly because their offense is stuck in low gear.  I smell another blowout, so I’ll take the Cowboys and lay the points – – even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bucs at Niners – 11.5 (42):  The Niners seem to have put the pieces back together; after a BYE Week two weeks ago, the Niners were hitting on all cylinders in beating the Jags last week by more than 4 TDs.  This is going to be a long plane ride for the Bucs to get to the game and an even longer one flying home after a beatdown.  Give me the Niners at home and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Seahawks – 1 at Rams (47):  Matthew Stafford will be back under center for the Rams this week.  Sam Howell showed last week that you can throw on the Seahawks defense; Matthew Stafford could have a huge day here.

Jets at Bills – 7 (40): Plain and simple here; I do not trust either of these two teams to play predictably.

(Sun Nite) Vikes at Broncos – 2 (43):  The Broncos’ offense is clearly improving; the Broncos defense still has plenty of room for improvement.

• Broncos rank 32^nd in the NFL in yards allowed rushing per game (158.3)
• Broncos rank 32^nd in the NFL in total defense (401.1 yards per game).

However, the reason the Broncos won last week was based on a strong defensive performance.  Meanwhile, the Vikes have quietly won 5 games in a row with is the longest current winning streak in the NFL.

(Mon Nite) Eagles at Chiefs – 2.5 (45):  This is clearly the Game of the Week; it is a rematch of last February’s Super Bowl; both teams come to the kickoff have had a BYE Week last week.  Coming off a BYE Week is something Andy Reid seems to have perfected; his record in such games is 27-4.  Yes, I know; Nick Siriani is undefeated coming off a BYE Week, but that record is only 2-0.   I think this will be a defensive game; the Eagles have the best run defense in the league and the Chiefs have the second-best scoring defense.

Let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle.”

• SMU/Memphis OVER 65
• Florida/Missouri OVER 56.5
• Cowboys – 10 over Panthers
• Chargers/Packers OVER 44
• Niners – 11.5 over Bucs

            No Money Line parlays this week; I just don’t like the numbers posted for the games.

Finally, I’ll close with these words of football wisdom from former Auburn football coach, Shug Jordan:

“Always remember … Goliath was a 40-point favorite over David.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Nothing more about Michigan football and sign-stealing today …  I promise.

The semi-final round of the CFL playoffs took place last weekend.  The first round was pure chalk; the favorites won and covered comfortably.  The Western semi-final game was chalk as well.  The Winnipeg Blue Bombers beat the BC Lions 24-13.  These teams met twice in the regular season and split those two games.  Now the Blue Bombers will travel to Hamilton this weekend for the Grey Cup Game.

Their opponent this weekend is a surprise.  In the Eastern semi-final, the Montreal Alouettes beat the Toronto Argonauts 38-17.  The Argonauts were 10.5-point favorites in the game.  These teams had met 3 times in the regular season and the Argonauts had won all three times.  Here are some stats from the game last weekend that might explain the turn of fortunes for the Alouettes last weekend:

• The Alouettes intercepted 4 passes in the game.
• Two of those interceptions were “Pick-Sixes”.
• The Alouettes also recovered a fumble in the game.
• The Argonauts turned the ball over on downs 4 times in the game.

During the CFL regular season, Toronto’s record was 16-2; that ties the record for the best regular season record in the history of the CFL which goes back to the 1950s.  The Argonauts were undefeated at home in 2023 – – until last weekend.  Over the course of the regular season the Argonauts had outscored opponents by 195 points (10.8 points per game).

Here are the data for this year’s Grey Cup Game on Sunday evening:

• Winnipeg is a 9-point favorite and minus-330 on the Money Line.
• Winnipeg has been in the Grey Cup Game in each of the last 3 seasons.
• Montreal’s last appearance in the Grey Cup game was in 2010.
• The teams met twice in the regular season; Winnipeg won both games handily.

Moving on …  On October 28^th, the Colorado Buffaloes went to Pasadena.CA to play UCLA; Colorado lost the game 28-16 but that is not all they lost.  It turns out that while the team was on the field someone – – or some ones – – went to the visitor’s locker room at the Rose Bowl and stole stuff belonging to the Colorado players.  According to reports, cash and items of jewelry were stolen.

The Pasadena Police Department has been on the case for a while and it has been reported that the gendarmes now have identified suspects in the heist.  There is a wrinkle in the case, however.  The suspects are described as “prospective recruits to the UCLA football team from a high school in Riverside County”.  UCLA issued a statement saying that the suspects were not on an official recruiting visit; the high school district involved expressed sorrow for the incident and said it was “fully cooperating” with the Pasadena police investigation.  Looking for something positive to say about this matter, at least some of the stolen property has been recovered and returned to the victim(s).

The events here do raise a couple of questions:

1. If the suspects were not “on an official visit”, how did they have access to the visitor’s locker room which is usually off-limits to ordinary spectators?
2. The school district said the students were not at the Rose Bowl that day “on a school-sponsored event.”  So, was this a premeditated heist since no one seems to be responsible for their presence at the game or near the locker room?
3. How lax is the security at the Rose Bowl – – or at UCLA football games?

One more football-related item today …  CBS will telecast the Super Bowl game in February 2024.  The network has been selling ad slots for the day since back in the summer and according to The Hollywood Reporter, the network says its inventory for the in-game ads “is virtually sold out” already.  Prime 30-second time slots are commanding between $6.5M and $7M each.

Given that situation, the expectation is that CBS will do even better than FOX did last year when it took in just over $600M for ads on Super Bowl Sunday.  The justification for all that spending is simple; the number of viewers for the game in February 2023 was 115 million folks.

Finally, apropos of nothing, let me close here with these words from Sir Arthur Conan Doyle:

“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Yesterday afternoon, I got an email from a friend; he is a graduate of the University of Michigan and the recipient of a graduate degree there.  I lead off this rant with that information because it is important to recognize that he is an intelligent person.  At the same time, he is a huge fan of Michigan Wolverine sports – – and this being early November, Michigan football is his passion.

The email had a lengthy exposition about how the Big 10 and the NCAA and the Illuminati and the Elders of Zion and the United Nations were all in cahoots to “take down Michigan football and Jim Harbaugh specifically”.  That was the easy stuff to deal with.  After about 250 words on that topic, the email veered into orbit.  He said that he had been reading on some Michigan fanboy sites the idea that Michigan should resign from the Big-10 and join the Big-12 where it would dominate even more than it now dominates in the Big 10.  My response to him was that I would use that idea as the topic for today’s rant – – so here goes …

There have been bad decisions made in human history:

• Napoleon invading Russia with winter impending
• Shelly Long leaving Cheers to take her career into other venues
• The Raiders drafting JaMarcus Russell with the overall #1 pick.

I think the idea of Michigan bolting from the Big-10 would be a decision that would be a worthy addition to the list above.  Let me explain.

First, there must be some sort of agreement among all the schools in the Big-10 which creates the conference in the first place, and which spells out things like how a new school might be admitted to the conference and what the penalty would be for a team to leave the conference.  I am not privy to such a document, but it must exist – – AND – – it cannot allow any school to leave the conference simply by saying “three, six, nine, I resign.”  A quick Google search did not give me an answer to the Big-10 exit fee, but it did tell me that the exit fee from the SEC is $45M.

That being the case, I would assume the Big-10 exit fee is of similar magnitude – – meaning that Michigan would have to pay that money to leave the conference with no guarantee that the Big-12 – – or any other conference – – would admit them immediately.  Michigan’s endowment is in the neighborhood of $18B, so it can afford the exit fee almost out of “petty cash” but in addition Michigan would be giving away its share of more than $1B annually in broadcast rights for football alone.

Moreover, I happen to think that college football in general and Big-10 football in specific are going to increase in value significantly over the next 5-10 years:

• First, the CFP will expand from 4 teams to 12 teams.  The rights fees for those additional 8 playoff games will be huge.  Plus, that addition will increase interest in games played in the regular season because teams with two and possibly three losses could still be in the running for a slot in the CFP.  So, that expansion will provide a new pool of media money to divide up as well as adding interest in the regular season games which would imply a bigger deal next time they all go to the negotiating table with the networks.
• And on top of that …  The Big-10 expansion puts them in a unique position.  The conference has teams from coast to coast – – as does the Big-12 – – and the Big-10 footprint is squarely in the biggest TV markets in its time zones.  The Big-10 will have a team in or near, NY, Philly, DC, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago, LA, Seattle and Portland.  That list is 10 of the 23 largest TV markets in the US.  Big-10 football has loads of room to grow its brand and its value.

So, even if I were to believe that this sign-stealing affair is being used as a wedge to get Jim Harbaugh out of Ann Arbor – – and for the record, I do not believe that at all – – it would be in Michigan’s financial interest to stay in the Big-10 and suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune while continuing to enjoy the conferences’ financial fruits.

There is an ad campaign ongoing for Capital One bank where the spokesthing says that deciding to open an account at Capital One is the easiest decision in the history of decisions.  In my opinion, any decision by Michigan to resign from the Big-10 would merit consideration as the dumbest decision in the history of decisions.  But that’s just me.

Finally, today’s rant centers on the stupidity of one overreaction to the ongoing situation involving Michigan football and Jim Harbaugh.  So, let me close with this remark from satirist, Karl Kraus:

“Stupidity is an elemental force for which no earthquake is a match.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In case you had not noticed, the NBA regular season is about 10-games old; at the moment the Sixers, Celtics, Nuggets and Mavs have the best records with 8 wins; the Grizzlies, Pistons and Wizards have the worst records with only two wins.  The inaugural NBA Cup – – the in-season tournament concept the league is trying out to give some meaning to these early season games – – is also underway and the 10 games on the NBA calendar for tonight are “Tournament Games”.

I have said here for years that it is difficult to get excited about early season NBA basketball games simply because the players do not exude excitement about those games.  If you watch NBA playoff games, you can see and feel the intensity of the game and the energy expended by the players in those games.  Those elements are missing from most NBA games in November and the absence makes the November games less compelling.

It is easy to tell when you are watching an in-season tournament game this year – – but not because there has been an injection of intensity and energy.  Those elements remain the same.  It is easy to tell a tournament game because someone had the dumb idea to play the games on “specially designed courts”.  Here is the translation for “specially designed courts”:

• Bold/loud color schemes painted onto the court so that none of the traditional wood grain is showing.
• A large swath of color runs lengthwise on the court from baseline to baseline and at the center jump circle, there is an image of the NBA Cup which will be presented to the tournament winner.
• It is as if the league wasn’t sure viewers would know they were watching a tournament game, so they effected an assault on viewers’ optic nerves.

Two other items related to the NBA regular season so far in 2023:

1. Victor Wembnyama has been “as advertised”.  With all the focus on Wemby, there may not have been sufficient attention paid to Chet Holmgren’ s play so far.  Like Wemby, he is “long and lean” and in the Thunder’s 10 games to date, Holmgren has shot 55% from the field, 50% from e-point range and 90% from the free throw line.
2. Ever since James Harden whined his way out of Philly and into LA, the Clippers have played 5 games and lost every one of them.

Moving on …  Here in Pennsylvania, lots of folks are getting ready for deer hunting season; the season is set by law (it starts the Saturday after Thanksgiving) and people plan significant portions of their life around it.  Much more subtlely, there is another “hunting season” that starts in November – – but it has no fixed starting date, and it happens – – because it happens.  I refer here to football teams hunting for new head coaches.  The season is open at the NFL level with one coach having been already fired and it is now open at the major college level with the firing of Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) and Zach Arnett (Mississippi St.).

There are too many college coaches who are on a short leash at this point in the season to enumerate/analyze, but in the NFL, there is a much smaller universe to consider.  So, here are two NFL head coaches who might need to be concerned about their job security – – in addition to the ones I mentioned back in early September as predictions for the NFL 2023 season:

1. Brian Daboll (Giants):  Yes, the Giants have been hammered by injuries – – particularly at QB – – but the team has been non-competitive too many times so far this season.  And yes, I do recall that Daboll was Coach of the Year just last year.  I still think he needs to find a way to change the vector heading the team seems to be on.
2. Arthur Smith (Falcons):  The Falcons are a mediocre team at best no matter who the coach is.  But I think there is reason for Smith to be wary when CBSSports.com has an article today with a headline that says, “Falcons not firing Arthur Smith anytime soon.”

Switching gears …  There seems to be a lot of sniping and complaining on the Internet about Al Michaels’ performance doing play-by-play for Thursday Night Football.  Some fans say he is low energy and that he is just mailing it in to collect his “fee” for doing the games and that he no longer cares about broadcasting.  I would accuse those folks of “mind reading without a license”.  I will not pretend to be able to know what is going on in Al Michaels’ head, but I can tell you what I observe when I listen to him and Kirk Herbstreit call a game on Thursday night.

• I hear the two of them present the game on the field without hysteria.  And frankly, that is a positive turn of events from my perspective.  Far too many other play-by-play guys turn up the volume for anything more than a four-yard gain in the first quarter.
• From my perspective, the Michaels/Herbstreit duo seem to have defined their combined role as presenting the game in a measured environment rather than a hyperventilated environment.

Finally, John Simon was the drama critic for New York Magazine where he earned the moniker “the Vicar of Vitriol”.  He often presented scathing descriptions of actresses in his reviews; here is one about Barbra Streisand:

“Miss Streisand looks like a cross between an aardvark and an albino rat surmounted by a platinum-colored horse bun.  Though she has good eyes and a nice complexion, the rest of her is a veritable anthology of disaster areas.  Her speaking voice seems to have graduated from the Brooklyn Conservatory of Yentaism and her acting consists entirely of fishily thrusting out her lips, sounding like a cabbie bellyaching at breakneck speed, and throwing her weight around.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In last week’s Football Friday, I had this to say about the Texas A&M/Mississippi St. game:

“The Aggies need one more win for bowl eligibility.  If they lose this game at home in front of already disgruntled alums, I would suggest that Jimbo Fisher hire a food taster… “

Well, the situation in College Station was even worse than I thought.  The Aggies won the game handily by a score of 51-10; nonetheless, Jimbo Fisher was fired the next day.  According to ESPN.com, the school will buy out Fisher’s contract to the tune of $76M.

“According to the terms of the contract, Texas A&M will owe Fisher $19.2 million within 60 days and then pay him $7.2 annually through 2031. There is no offset or mitigation on those payments, and the annual payments start 120 days after termination.”

So, Fisher will get a lump sum payment by January and then get $7.2M annually for 8 years in exchange for not coaching football at Texas A&M.  This turn of events should be informative for anyone on the list of coaches to take the job at Texas A&M:

• The administrators and the alums have VERY deep pockets.
• The administrators and the alums want championships not just wins.
• The next coach should expect to be paid very well – – and to fail to live up to expectations.

Let me move on to another topic involving a highly visible college football coach – – Jim Harbaugh.  Michigan beat Penn St. on Saturday to remain unbeaten in 2023 and is likely to remain in the Top-4 when the CFP Selection Committee announces its rankings later this week.  The team did this without Harbaugh prowling the sidelines because he has been suspended for 3 games related to an investigation of sign stealing by a person related to Michigan football.  I am conflicted on this matter; let me try to explain.

I have read about the allegations and read a compilation of evidence gathered to date.  From that reading, I am fully convinced that sign-stealing was ongoing and that it was planned and intentional.  Nowhere in my reading have I come across evidence that Jim Harbaugh was deeply involved.  It seems to me that he is being punished/suspended on the basis that the head coach is always responsible for improper activities that go on in the program.

I recognize that sort of “job jeopardy” exists in football, but it certainly is not commonplace in jurisprudence.  If a police officer commits a crime and is convicted of that crime, the city mayor is not thrown out of office because one of the people who “worked for him” ran afoul of the law.  So, I would prefer to know the depth of Jim Harbaugh’s involvement in this endeavor before punishing him.

It seems to me there are four levels of involvement here – – sort of like the circles of Hell in Dante’s Inferno.  Let me start with the worst and go to the least bad:

• Level 1:  This was all Harbaugh’s idea; he assigned this as a task to one of his underlings.  If that is shown to be the case, throw the book at him; suspend him from coaching college football for a long enough time that he goes and gets an NFL job and ceases to pollute the sport of college football.  And Michigan should fire him for cause and not buy out his contract because he brought shame to the University of Michigan as an institution.
• Level 2:  Harbaugh knew this was going on; and because he and the team benefited from it, he accepted the information and in doing so, he condoned what is a rules violation.  If that is shown to be the case, Michigan need not fire him, but he should be suspended for a significant period of time – – say 6 months – – and the team should lose a significant number of scholarships that it can issue for several years.
• Level 3:  Harbaugh – and his assistant coaches – welcomed the input from the “sign stealers” because it was valuable, but they did not know how the “sign stealers” got so smart.  Maybe the “sign stealers” had developed their own AI algorithms to scope out opposition tendencies and choices.  Whatever …  At this level, Harbaugh, the assistant coaches and the players are passive beneficiaries of someone else’s transgressions.
• Level 4:  Jim Harbaugh knew nothing of this sign stealing activity until stories about it broke in the newspapers and on ESPN.

Many people say that the idea of denying Michigan a spot in the CFP and or an invitation to a bowl game this year punishes the players who pretty clearly had nothing to do with the rule violation.  So, that seems less than fair.  At the same time, lots of people think it is OK to punish Jim Harbaugh before it is clearly shown where he belongs on the spectrum I outlined above.  The important words in that previous sentence are “clearly shown”.  It is easy to come up with logic chains about what must have been the case, but that is not sufficient.  There needs to be evidence to place Jim Harbaugh – – and maybe some of his assistants? – – on that spectrum so that innocent folks are protected, and guilty folks are punished.

One more important thing to keep in mind as this matter continues to evolve.  We all need to be aware of – and resist as best we can – the condition of “confirmation bias” wherein we selectively pick out nuggets of information that align with our previously held thoughts and conclusions and ignore information that contradicts those beliefs.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The German philosopher, G.W.F. Hegel, said:

“Napoleon was twice defeated, and the Bourbons twice expelled.  By repetition that which at first appeared merely a matter of chance and contingency, becomes a real and ratified existence.”

And even in these times of technological change, there are things we should rely on based on repetitive experience.

• The sun rises – – and then it sets.
• The tide comes in – – and then it goes out.
• Adam Sandler makes a movie – – and then he does not get an Oscar.

Around here, when Friday rolls around in November, it is time for Football Friday.  Deal with it…

Let me begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

College:  3-0-0  =>  Season:  14-6-0

NFL:  1-1-0  =>  Season:  11-9-0

Parlays: 1-1  => “Profit” = $25  =>  Season:  7-8  =>  “Season Profit” = $253

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The Linfield College Wildcats are now 8-0 for the season after beating Pacific Lutheran last weekend by a score of 42-19.  Similarly, the Pirates of Whitworth University are 8-0 this year having beaten George Fox University last weekend 24-13.  Obviously, both schools are undefeated in conference games and the two teams will meet this weekend in McMinnville, OR to determine the Northwest Conference Champion and a probable invitation to the Division 3 football playoff tournament.  To give you an idea of the way these two teams have dominated conference opponents in 2023, here are the cumulative scores for both teams against the other teams in the Northwest Conference:

• Whitworth:  293 – 95
• Linfield:  307 – 92

Go Wildcats!

People reacted to last week’s meeting between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. as the end of “Bedlam” – as the game is known – because Oklahoma is moving from the Big-12 to the SEC next season.  Frankly, I don’t think that conference switch needs to be definitive regarding the two teams playing each other in football.  Here is why I do not consider this an insurmountable obstacle:

• Florida and Florida St. are in different conferences and play each other annually.
• Kentucky and Louisville are in different conferences and play each other annually.
• Clemson and South Carolina are in different conferences and …
• Georgia and Georgia Tech are in different conferences …
• Notre Dame and USC are …
• Army/Navy/AirForce …

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. want to continue the tradition of “Bedlam” it can be arranged…

In 1920, Warren G. Harding ran successfully for the US Presidency promising the country a “return to normalcy”.  Well, it would appear that the SEC has “returned to normalcy” after last weekend’s results:

• Alabama is in the driver’s seat in the SEC West after beating LSU by 2 TDs last week.  If Alabama wins either of its remaining conference games (Kentucky or Auburn). The Tide will play in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
• Georgia beat a good Missouri team last week 30-21 securing their spot in the SEC Championship Game.
• Both Alabama and Georgia gave their fans some anxieties earlier in this season, but it appears as if “normalcy” has prevailed.

The PAC-12 race still has potential drama.  Washington leads the parade for now with an overall 9 -0 record and a 6-0 conference record.  Oregon’s only conference loss was to Washington.  Four teams are mathematically alive as of this morning with 2 conference losses.

• Washington:  Has to play Utah, Oregon St. and Washington St.  The Oregon St. game is a road game.
• Oregon:  Has to play USC, Arizona St. and Oregon St.  The Arizona St. game is on the road.

Both the Huskies and the Ducks should be solid favorites to win out even granting that each team finishes the season against a traditional rival.  If it were to happen that the teams finish one-two in the conference, they would meet again for the PAC-12 Championship…

If you are looking for a large – – and surprising – – turnaround of football fortunes in 2023, check out UNLV.  Since the turn of the century, UNLV has had two winning seasons and six different head coaches.  Their last winning season was in 2013; in the five years leading up to 2023, the Rebels’ combined record was 15-39.

To date in 2023, UNLV’s record is 7-2.  One loss was to Michigan so we can accept the fact that UNLV is still not part of the top echelon of college football.  But the Rebels are bowl-eligible with three games to play in the season.  That is a large and a surprising turnaround of football fortunes…

Here are some comments about games from last week starting in the SEC:

Arkansas 39  Florida 36 (OT):  The Gators still need a win for bowl-eligibility.  Where will that win come from?  In their final 3 games of the season, Florida will be an underdog to LSU (on the road), Missouri (on the road) and Florida St. (at home).  Arkansas was 2-6 coming into the game and has struggled on offense for most if not all of 2023.  Last week, the Razorbacks outgained the Gators by more than 100 yards.  If the Gators lose their last 3 games – – a serious possibility – – that would mean three years in a row for Florida with an overall losing record two of those losing records coming in Billy Napier’s tenure as head coach.  For the record, Florida replaced its last three head coaches with only one losing season on their tab.

Ole Miss 38  Texas A&M 35:  These two teams combined to produce 975 yards and a total of 56 first downs in the game.  The Aggies have now lost 9 consecutive road games and the Aggies are now 5-4.  Finding that sixth win to go to a bowl game should not be difficult since the remaining three opponents are Mississippi St. (at home), Abilene Christian (at home) and LSU (on the road).  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is now 8-1 and has a huge game coming up this weekend at Georgia.

Georgia 30  Missouri 21:  This was a very close game on the stat sheet.  The biggest disparity was in turnovers; Missouri threw 2 INTs in the game and Georgia did not turn the ball over at all.

Kentucky 24  Mississippi St. 3:  The Wildcats are now bowl eligible.

Alabama 42  LSU 28:  The rumors of Alabama’s demise are a bit exaggerated.  The score was tied at halftime; but here are the results of LSU’s possessions in the second half:

• 9 plays – – 75 yards – – TD
• 6 plays – – 10 yards – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – 2 yards – – INT
• 3 plays – – 9 yards – – PUNT
• 7 plays – – 48 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Shifting to ACC games …

UNC 59  Campbell 7:  What better cure for a two-game losing streak than a cupcake opponent?    The Tar Heels amassed 594 yards on offense.

Clemson 31  Notre Dame 23:  That is the third loss for the Irish; if they make a New Year’s Day Bowl Game with 3 losses it will be solely on account of their ability to draw TV ratings.  Clemson improved to 5-4 with this win.

Ga Tech 45  Viriginia 17:  Tech improved its record to 5-4; can it make it to a bowl game?  It won’t be a trivial undertaking; here is the remaining schedule for Tech:

• At Clemson (and the Tigers need a win for bowl eligibility too)
• Vs. Syracuse
• At Georgia

Florida St. 24  Pitt 7:  The Seminoles remain unbeaten in 2023; Pitt falls to 2-7 this year.  Florida St. outgained Pitt by 168 yards in the game; usually, that results in a bigger margin of victory.  Pitt was 0 for 11 on third down conversions here.

Louisville 34  Va Tech 3:  Louisville is alone in second place in the ACC standings behind only Florida St. with this dominating win.

NC State 20  Miami 6:  State became bowl-eligible with this win.  The Wolfpack defense pitched a shutout in the second half of the game to seal the win even though Miami outgained State for the game.  A big problem for the Hurricanes was turning the ball over 4 times in the game.

Duke 24  Wake Forest 21:  The Blue Devils are now bowl eligible.  They won this game despite being outgained on offense by 133 yards.  The margin of victory was a 26-yard field goal as time expired.

And for some Big-12 contests …

Texas 33  K-State 30 (OT):  Texas led 17-0 early in the second period and 27-7 late in the third period, but K-Stata forced OT with a serious comeback.   The Big-12 standings underwent big changes last week; Texas now shares the lead in the conference with a record of 5-1 in conference games.

Oklahoma St. 27  Oklahoma 24:  Oklahoma St. lost at home to South Alabama 33-7 on September 16^th.  Since then, the Cowboys are 5-1.  This makes two losses in a row for the Sooners – – both in conference games.  Oklahoma led 21-17 at the start of the 4^th quarter.  Here are the OU possessions in the 4^th quarter:

• 4 plays – – 16 yards – – PUNT
• 1 play – – minus-1 yard – – FUMBLE
• 6 plays – – 57 yards – – FIELD GOAL
• 5 plays – – 21 yards – – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

With this win, Oklahoma St. joins Texas as the only teams in the Big-12 with only one conference loss.

Kansas 28  Iowa St. 21:  This was a significant loss for Iowa St with regard to Big-12 race.  It was their second conference loss putting them in a mélange of 5 teams with two such losses.

And now for Big-10 action …

Michigan St. 20  Nebraska 17:  The Big 10 West race is inscrutable.  Last week, there were four teams there with 2 conference losses; three of those four teams lost last week; Nebraska was one of them.  Neither team managed to generate 300 yards on offense here.  Nebraska turned the ball over 3 times in the game.

Ohio St. 35  Rutgers 16:  Rutgers led 9-7 at halftime; then Ohio St. woke up.  A Pick-Six early in the third quarter seems to have been the Buckeyes’ wake-up call.  Rutgers outgained Ohio St. for the game on the strength of 232 yards rushing on 44 attempts.

Indiana 20  Wisconsin 14:  Does anyone want to win the Big-10 West?  Wisconsin was more than a TD favorite here and lost outright to a team that had only 2 wins at kickoff time.  For the record, those two victories for Indiana were over Division 1-AA Indiana St. and SHOE Tournament probable, Akron.  Wisconsin won the stat sheet but turned the ball over twice in the game.  The Badgers have lost three of their last four games.

Illinois 27  Minnesota 26:  Illinois lost the turnover battle 3-1 and still won the game.  Minnesota is another Big-10 West team that lost its third conference battle last week.

Iowa 10  Northwestern 7:  This was a rock fight game:

• Iowa Total Offense = 169 yards
• Northwestern Total Offense 170 yards

And …

• Iowa average gain per play = 3.0 yards
• Northwestern average gain per play = 2.8 yards.

Iowa now leads the Big-10 West because the three teams previously tied with them in that division lost last Saturday.

And out west in the PAC-12 …

Utah 55  Arizona St. 3:  Conference games are not often this lopsided – – especially with teams like Utah that win games with their defense.  Check these stats:

• Utah Total Offense = 522 yards
• Arizona St. Total Offense = 83 yards

And …

• Utah third down conversions = 10 of 17
• Arizona St. third down conversions = 2 of 15

Oregon 63  Cal 19:  Oregon continues to try to impress the CFP selectors of its worthiness even with a loss on its record.

Washington 52  USC 42:  That makes three losses for the Trojans in 2023 meaning their hopes for a prime bowl game invitation are dwindling.   As usual the USC defense was miserable; the Huskies ran the ball for 316 yards on 40 attempts.  Huskies’ running back, Dillon Johnson, ran for 256 yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries.

Stanford 10  Washington St. 7:  Stanford kicked a chip shot field goal late in the 4^th quarter here to avoid OT.  That had to be a blessing for the folks in attendance….

Oregon St. 26  Colorado 19:  Colorado needs to win two out of three of its remaining games to be bowl-eligible; that will be a tall task:  The next three games for the Buffaloes are Arizona (at home), Washington St. (on the road) and Utah (on the road).   The Beavers outgained the Buffaloes here 418 yards to 238 yards.

Arizona 27  UCLA 10:  Two weeks in a row, I have taken Arizona with points in the “Betting Bundle” and both times Arizona has won outright.  With this win, they are bowl eligible.  UCLA’s defense is sound; and yet, Arizona produced 415 yards of offense in the game.

And finally, in random games of interest …

Temple 32  Navy 18:  This is win #3 for Temple – – probably taking them off the SHOE Tournament watch list.

Army 23  Air Force 3: A shocking result here!  Air Force was 7-0 coming to the game and was a serious contender for a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.  With this win, Army is now 3-6 for the season’ the win snapped a 5-game losing streak for the Cadets.  Air Force turned the ball over 6 times in this game.

UAB 45  FAU 42:  I mention this only because the teams combined for 1098 yards on offense.  Just so you know, that is just about five-eighths of a mile…

Memphis 59  USF 50:  I mention this only because the teams combined for 1163 yards on offense.  Just so you know, that is almost two-thirds of a mile…

Tulane 13  E. Carolina 10:  Tulane is 8-1 and is widely touted to be the most likely Group of 5 conference winner to make a New Yar’s Day Bowl Game.  However, two weeks ago they beat Rice by only 2 points and last weekend they squeaked out a 3-point win over a team on the SHOE Tournament watch list.  Tulane needs a signature win to maintain their status as the media favorite for a New Year’s Day slot.  Here is the remaining schedule for Tulane and I don’t see any opponents that make me sit up and take notice:

• Vs. Tulsa
• At Florida Atlantic
• Vs. Texas – San Antonio

Meh!

Liberty 56  La-Tech 30:  Liberty remains undefeated at 9-0.  Here is their remaining schedule:

• Vs. Old Dominion
• Vs. UMass
• At UTEP

Meh-squared!!

Here are the teams on my SHOE Tournament watch list this week.  Call it the “Dirty Dozen”:

1. Akron (2-7)
2. Arizona St. (2-7)
3. Ball St. (2-7)
4. Cincy (2-7)
5. East Carolina (1-8)
6. Kent St. (1-8)
7. La-Monroe (2-7)
8. Nevada (2-7)
9. Southern Mississippi (2-7)
10. UConn (1-8)
11. Vandy (2-8)
12. Virginia (2-7)

And a quick update on the contenders for the 2023 Brothel Defense Award:

• USF gives up 37.0 points per game.
• UMass gives up 37.4 points per game.
• UAB gives up 38.1 points per game.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Alabama – 11 at Kentucky (47):  A win for Alabama in this game puts them in the SEC Championship Game in December.

Miami at Florida St. – 14.5 (50.5):  The Seminoles are an integral part of the CFP conversation but will drop out with a loss here.  Miami is just erratic enough in its performances to give pause regarding this game.

Duke at UNC – 14.5 (51.5):  That is a large spread for such an intense rivalry game…

Va Tech – 1 at BC (49):  Very quietly, BC has won 5 games in a row and is bowl-eligible in 2023.  Tech still needs two wins to make it to a bowl game…

Ga Tech at Clemson – 14 (55.5):  This is not where the Ramblin’ Wreck finds its sixth win for the season …

Oklahoma St. – 2 at UCF (65):  This is potentially a BIG letdown game for the Cowboys after beating Oklahoma last week.  On the other hand, a win here for the Cowboys assures that they will maintain a piece of the Big-12 conference lead.  UCF is 1-5 in conference games, and I think they are over-matched here.  I’ll take Oklahoma St. to win and cover on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ole Miss at Georgia – 10,5 (58):  There are two College Games of the Week this week and this game is one of them.  The teams arrive at the kickoff with a combined record of 17-1.  If you are a trend watcher, consider this:

• Ole Miss is 5-2-1 against the spread playing Division 1-A opponents.
• Georgia is 2-5-1 against the spread playing Division 1-A opponents.

Minnesota at Purdue – 1 (47):  More than likely, this game will be lost and not won.

Michigan – 4 at Penn St. (45):  This is the other College Game of the Week.  Michigan leads the nation in scoring defense allowing only 6.7 points per game.  Penn St. is no slouch when it comes to scoring defense either; the Nittany Lions are third in the country allowing only 11.8 points per game.  This will be Michigan’s first game against an opponent that belongs on the same field as the Wolverines.  I trust the Penn St. defense to make Michigan sweat a bit, but I am not sanguine about the Penn St. offense doing much business against the Michigan defense.  I am tempted to play the UNDER here – – but will resist that temptation.

Northwestern at Wisconsin – 10 (41.5):  First team to 20 points wins …  I am so tempted to take the UNDER but will not.

Rutgers at Iowa – 1 (28.5):  I cannot remember ever seeing a Total Line as low as 28.5 points in a college football game.  The Total Line opened at 32 points and has been dropping all week long.  That would indicate that the sportsbooks are finding it difficult to attract bettors to the OVER side of this wager.

Arizona – 10 at Colorado (54.5):  I rode Arizona to two wins in the last two “Betting Bundles” – – but not this week laying 10 points on the road…

Utah at Washington – 9 (50):  An upset win by the Utes would make the rest of the PAC-12 schedule even more interesting than it shapes up to be.

USC at Oregon – 15 (74):  The Total Line opened at 81 points, dropped quickly to 76 points, and has slowly eroded to this level.  Losing a full TD from an opening Total Line is not a common occurrence.

Indiana at Illinois – 6 (44):  This is a “border war” game.  Do you think anyone in either state thinks of this game in that way?

Tennessee – 2.5 at Missouri (58):  Mizzou spent a lot of emotional capital getting up to play Georgia.  Is this a letdown game for the Tigers?  Both teams are 7-2 on the season and the winner here should get very serious consideration for a New Year’s Day Bowl Game.

Florida at LSU – 14 (64):  This looks like the third loss in a row for the Gators.  However, LSU’s QB, Jayden Daniels, spent the week in concussion protocol so there is some ambiguity as to his availability and his abilities this week.

Mississippi St. at Texas A&M – 19 (42.5):  The Aggies need one more win for bowl eligibility.  If they lose this game at home in front of already disgruntled alums, I would suggest that Jimbo Fisher hire a food taster…  I know that Mississippi St. is not a good offensive team (104^th in the country in Total Offense per game) but the Aggies are not an offensive juggernaut either.  I think that line is fat, so I’ll take the Bulldogs on the road plus all those points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Maryland – 2 at Nebraska (44):  The Huskers lost last week in a game they needed to win and should have won; the Terps have lost 4 games in a row.  Race to the bottom here …?

Michigan St. at Ohio St. – 31 (45):  The spread here is interesting because Ohio St. only averages 32.8 points per game in 2023.

Air Force – 19 at Hawaii (47):  Despite last week’s loss to Army, Air Force remains unbeaten in Mountain West Conference games.  They aim to maintain the status quo here.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There is a standard joke when a bad team has a BYE Week to say that the bad team did not lose to the BYE Week.  Well, there might be a variant on that from last week.  The Niners are a good team.  They had their BYE Week last week.  I assert that the Niners won their BYE Week because:

• The Seahawks – also in the NFC West – scored 3 points and lost to the Ravens.
• The Rams – also in the NFC West – scored 3 points and lost to the Packers.
• The Cards – also in the NFC West – scored 0 points and lost to the Browns.
• The Niners did not lose last week; hence they won their BYE Week.

Antonio Pierce won his first game as the interim head coach of the Raiders.  Before the euphoria carries Raider Nation away, might I remind them to take a deep breath and recall that Jeff Saturday stepped in to take over the Colt’s job last year and won his first outing – – and then proceeded to lose the rest of the games on the schedule.  There are similarities between Saturday and Pierce:

• Both had long careers as players in the NFL.
• Both had zero experience as head coaches anywhere.
• Both won their first games on the job with their new charges.

Raider fans can look more fondly at another comparison between Antonio Pierce and Rich Bisaccia.  Like Pierce, Bisaccia had no head coaching experience when he was inserted into the Raiders’ season as an interim head coach a couple years ago.  Like Pierce, he won his first game with the big headset on.  And then Bisaccia took the team on a run to the playoffs – – but was not retained by Mark Davis who decided that Josh McDaniels was the guy he wanted as head man with the Raiders.

So, let me suggest that Raider Nation hopes to see Pierce emulate Rich Bisaccia and not Jeff Saturday for the balance of the 2023 season.  And then, Raider Nation needs to hope that Mark Davis makes a far better choice for his next head football coach out there in the desert…

The Atlanta Falcons have a QB controversy but not the usual kind.  They are currently in a situation where they need to choose the least worst of their options, not the best choice.

• Memo to Arthur Blank and the Falcons’ Braintrust:  Neither Taylor Heinicke nor Desmond Ridder is the future” face of that franchise”.

The Houston Texans just might wiggle their way into the 7^th playoff spot in the AFC.  CJ Stroud is playing excellently and the Texans’ defense – – under DeMeco Ryans – – is playing well too.

The LA Rams are on their BYE Week this week.  They need to send Matthew Stafford to Lourdes to heal his thumb because Brett Rypien is not the answer to any pertinent football question.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ record this morning is 5-3.  In those 8 games, the Steelers have been outgained by their opponents every time and even with that winning percentage of .652, the Steelers have a minus-30 point differential for 2023.  That is not a recipe for playoff success.

The NY Giants are just awful.  Their two wins this year are over the Commanders and the Cards.  Other than a home game against the similarly miserable Pats on November 26^th, the Giants will be underdogs – – and significant underdogs most of the time – – from now through early January.

Amazon is paying the NFL $1B a year for the rights to Thursday Night Football.  This week, the NFL has saddled Amazon with the Panthers at the Bears.  It would be difficult for the Bears to lose here since they own the Panthers’ first round pick next year.

• Bears win => Panthers’ pick gets more valuable
• Panthers win => Bears’ pick gets more valuable

So, who is psyched to tune into this game?

Just to keep you updated on three running items:

1. The Pats sacked Commanders’ QB, Sam Howell twice last week bringing his sack total to 43 for the season.  That projects to 81 sacks for the full season which would set an all-time NFL record.
2. The Steelers gained 326 yards last week meaning they have gone over 300 yards of offense twice in their eight games in 2023.
3. The Steelers have now gone 43 consecutive games with Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator where the offense failed to gain 400 yards or more.

Some comments on last week’s games …

Chiefs 21  Dolphins 14:  When you hold Patrick Mahomes to 174 yards passing and the Chiefs to 267 yards on offense, you are supposed to win the game.  The Dolphins were only 3 of 12 on third-down conversions and that did not aid them in such an endeavor.

Browns 27  Cards 0:  The Cards were an embarrassment to pro football here:

• Total offense for the day = 58 yards
• Net passing yards = 17 yards
• Third-down conversions = 1 of 12
• Average gain per play = 1.2 yards
• Turnovers = 3
• Punts = 9
• Deepest penetration = Browns 40 yardline
• Sacks allowed = 7

Vikes 31  Falcons 28:  You must have heard about Josh Dobbs and his miraculous debut for the Vikes.  Having arrived two days before the game, he threw for 2 TDs – one being on a game winning drive – – and ran for another.  All that came AFTER he lost two fumbles and was sacked for a safety.  That was a Hollywood screenplay performance.  Taylor Heinicke played QB for the Falcons in place of Desmond Ridder and did what Heinicke often does – – plays just well enough to keep the game on edge to the end so the other guys can find a way to win at the end.

Saints 24  Bears 17:  The Bears – led by Tyson Bagent – actually outgained the Saints in the game 368 yards to 301 yards.  The problem is that Bagent threw 3 INTs; he also lost a fumble; and the Bears turned the ball over a total of 5 times in the game.  Nevertheless, the score was tied at 17 each at the start of the 4^th quarter; but here are the Bears’ possessions in the 4^th quarter:

• 2 plays – – 0 yards – – INT (leads to Saint’s winning TD)
• 6 plays – – 12 yads – – INT
• 3 plays – – 6 yards – – PUNT
• 2 plays – – minus-14 yards – – FUMBLE

Packers 20  Rams 3:  Jordan Love had a decent game, but it was more than the Packers needed here because the Rams’ backup QB, Brett Rypien, had a miserable game:

• 13 of 28 for 130 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Ravens 37  Seahawks 3:  This was another total domination effort by the Ravens.

• Ravens Total Offense = 515 yards
• Seahawks Total Offense = 151 yards

There are plenty of other disastrous stat comparisons I could make here, but I think you get the idea …

Colts 27  Panthers 13:  The Colts never turned the ball over in this game – – kudos to Gardner Minshew on that.  The Panthers turned the ball over 4 times in this game including two Pick-Sixes in the game.

Texans 39  Bucs 37:  This was CJ Stroud’s coming out party.  The Texans’ QB produced this tat line:

• 30 of 42 for 490 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs

The Bucs scored a go-ahead TD with 46 seconds left to go in the game.  Stroud led the Texans back on 6 plays covering 75 yards to score the winning TD with 6 seconds left on the clock.  The Bucs have now lost 4 in a row after starting the season 3-1; the Texans’ record stands at 4-4.

Commanders 20  Pats 17:  This makes two games in a row where Sam Howell has played excellently. Here is his stat line:

• 29 of 45 for 325 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Pats had 107 yards rushing which seems good until you recognize that 64 yards came on one TD run in the first half.  For the rest of the day, the Pats gained 43 yards rushing on 18 carries.  Bleah!

Eagles 28  Cowboys 23:  The Cowboys outgained the Eagles 406 yards to 292 yards – – and lost the game.  In the fourth quarter alone, the Cowboys outgained the Eagles 163 yards to 14 yards – – and the Cowboys lost the game.  With the Cowboys trailing by 5 points, they got the ball on their own 14 yardline with 46 seconds left in the game and no timeouts.  No problem, the Eagles gifted the Cowboys 55 yards in penalties – – that stop the clock – – to set up a sack by Josh Sweat and a failed Hail Mary pass as time expired.

Raiders 30  Giants 6:  Daniel Jones returned from a neck injury that had kept him out of the last 2 games; he lasted until the second quarter when he injured his knee – – and it was later shown to be a torn ACL meaning he is out for the rest of the year.  The Giants were going nowhere with Jones; they are cooked without him.  This was a big win for the Raiders under interim head coach Antonio Pierce (see above).  The Raiders’ defense recorded 8 sacks in the game.

Bengals 24  Bills 18:  Joe Burrow’s calf is healed; he is back to being Joe Burrow.  This was a seriously entertaining game to watch between two of the better teams in the league.

Chargers 27  Jets 6:  The Chargers recorded 8 sacks in the game; the Jets’ OL was like an unhinged swinging gate.  The Jets dominated the stat sheet:

• Jets’ Time of Possession = 34:27
• Jets outgained Chargers 270 yards to 191 yards

The difference in the game was a punt return for a TD by the Chargers and three lost fumbles by the Jets.

 

Games This Week:

 

Four teams have their BYE Week now:

• Chiefs:  It had to have been a LONG flight home from Germany to KC – – but at least they won the game in Germany.
• Dolphins:  Their flight home from Germany was even longer than the Chiefs’ flight – – and they lost the game in Germany.
• Eagles:  They get a breather before embarking on a very difficult stretch of 5 games:

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. At Chiefs
            2. Vs. Bills
            3. Vs. Niners
            4. At Cowboys
            5. At Seahawks

• Rams:  The Rams are 3-6 to this point in the season and really need a week off to let some key players get healthy – – Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua to name a pair.

One other note before getting to the slate of games.  I will be identifying a Dog-Breath Game of the Week from the list of games on Sunday and Monday, notwithstanding that none of those games look nearly as unattractive as last night’s Panthers/Bears clash of the Titans.

And speaking of last night’s game …

Bears 16  Panthers 13:  There are two ways in which an NFL game can end with neither team able to generate 300 yards of offense:

• Two really good defenses stifling two competent offenses.
• Two offenses slogging through mud facing two competent defenses.

If you watched last night, you saw Option 2.  The two teams combined to face third-down situations a total of 30 times; the longest running play in the game was a 16-yard jet sweep; the longest pass completion for the victorious Bears was also 16 yards.  Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit tried to keep the game interesting for viewers; it was a Herculean task.

And now for the rest of this week’s NFL action …

(Sun Morning) Colts at Pats – 2 (43) Game is in Germany:  The spread opened with the Pats as 1-point favorites but that did not last long.  The Pats’ season is virtually over already; the Colts’ season is merely in the ICU taking intravenous nourishment.  Even with that comment, this game was never part of my consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week; I really don’t care much about this game.

Browns at Ravens – 6.5 (38):  The Total Line opened at 41 points and obviously attracted a lot of “UNDER” action; these are two excellent defensive teams.  This is my Game of the Week.  A win by the Browns will put them only a half-game behind the Ravens in the AFC North race.  The Ravens have the best point differential in the league to date at +115 points in 9 games.  Just as a point of reference the second-best point differential belongs to the Bills at +80 in 9 games.  Six weeks ago, the Ravens went to Cleveland and torched the Browns 28-3; there could be an element of “revenge” at work here.

Texans at Bengals – 6.5 (37):  The spread opened with the Bengals as 9-point favorites, but the line has been moving down slowly all week.  I like the Texans (see comments above), but it may be asking a bit much for them to matchup against the Bengals in Cincy.

Niners – 3 at Jags (45):  This was my runner-up choice for the Game of the Week.  The Jags have an inverted record so far this year:

• Jags’ record at home = 2-2
• Jags’ record on the road = 4-0

The Niners have lost three in a row and that has dropped them into a tie for first place in the NFC West with the Seahawks.  Niners’ fans surely hope last week’s time off gave the team and the coaches the opportunity to get their act back together.  Another factor here is that this is a so called “body-clock game” for the Niners.  They are traveling east over 3 time zones and kickoff is at 1:00 PM – – which for their body clocks is 10:00 AM.  Purely a hunch but I’ll take the Jags at home plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Saints – 3 at Vikes (41):  One more performance from Josh Dobbs akin to last week’s showing (see above) and he will be cast as Jack Armstrong – – All-American Boy – – in a movie rendition of that radio program from about 75 years ago.

Packers at Steelers – 3 (39):  The Steelers win with defense and their defense should be able to confound Jordan Love.  But it is tough to back the Steelers giving away points because of their blasé offense.  I like the Steelers to win and cover at home – – even though I might hyperventilate watching the Steelers’ offense try to move the ball; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans at Bucs – 1 (39.5): This is my runner-up game as the Dog-Breath Game of the week.  Both teams sport 3-5 records; neither team is particularly good at any specific area of the game.  The reason it did not achieve “Dog-Breath status” is that it might be interesting to watch Will Levis play QB for the Titans in his second start.

Falcons – 2 at Cards (42):  This here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Falcons ae 4-5 meaning they are still “a potential division winner” in the marginally acceptable NFC South.  The Cards are a semi-pro level team until and unless Kyler Murray returns to action and plays like Kyler Murray can play when he is interested.  Murray is slated to start this game “if he suffers no setbacks” in the late week practices; maybe that makes the game worth following – – but not watching.

Lions – 3 at Chargers (48.5):  The spread opened with the Chargers favored by a point.  That did not last long at all.  This was my runner-up for Game of the Week.  The Lions had their BYE last week; the Chargers played on Monday night in NY and then had a cross country flight home making it a short week for the Chargers.  I am tempted to take the Chargers at home – – but will not.

Giants at Cowboys – 17 (39):  The spread opened at 10 points and the Total Line opened at 41.5 points.  Both numbers have moved around during the week.  Earlier this year, the Cards beat the Cowboys in a game where the Cowboys clearly just mailed it in.  If that happens here to the point that the woebegone Giants win this game, Jerry Jones just might pop a cerebral aneurism as his blood pressure goes to something like 375/255.  Just so you know:

• Money Line odds on Giants = +1040
• Money Line odds on Cowboys = minus-1700

Therefore, a $100 wager on the Cowboys on the Money Line would result in a profit of $5.88 if the Cowboys were to win the game.

Commanders at Seahawks – 6.5 (44.5):  I will not be in the DC area for the Sunday games this week.  If I were going to be here, this game would be the one telecast in the late afternoon slot meaning there is no chance I would be burdened by seeing the Giants/Cowboys game in that time slot.  I shall have to take my chances with the television gods in the Central Pennsylvania viewing area.

(Sun Nite) Jets at Raiders “pick ‘em” (37):  The spread for this game is all over the place.  I can find Jets – 1 and I can find Raiders – 1.5 and I can find “pick ’em”.  What I cannot find is any reason to believe that this game will be an offensive shoot-out.

(Mon Nite) Broncos at Bills – 7.5 (46.5):  The spread opened the week with the Bills as 9-point favorites, but the number has slowly shrunk to this level during the week.  The Bills need this game more than the Broncos do.  The Bills are a game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East; a loss here would put them two-games down in the loss column.  The Broncos have won two games in a row raising their record to 3-5.  Clearly that shows improvement but for perspective they are looking up at the chiefs in the AFC West and the Chiefs are 7-2.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle” – sparse as it is this week:

• Oklahoma St. – 2 over UCF
• Mississippi St. +19 against Texas A&M
• Steelers – 3 over Packers
• Jags +3 against Niners

And here is a two-element Money Line Parlay for this week:

• Steelers @ minus-170
• Bills @ minus-330     $100 wager to win $107.

Finally, here are words of wisdom from Rutgers head football coach, Greg Schiano:

“There are two things every man in America thinks he can do: work a grill and coach football.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………