Author: Jack

Last week was mythically profitable for the NFL Picks.  I made 14 selections and the record for the week was 9-4-1.  Since the start of the NFL season, the combined weekly results lead to a record of 91-55-4.

Two games last week were relegated to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin’s record was 1-0-1.  So far this season, the coin has been more successful that one should expect from a flipped coin; the cumulative record is 11-8-2.

The Best Picks from last week were:

• Bucs +7.5 against Chiefs.  Bucs won straight up.
• Steelers – 7.5 against Browns.  Steelers won by 15 points.

The Worst Picks from last week were:

• Bills/Bengals OVER 47.  Total score was only 28 points.
• Cards over Vikes “pick ‘em”.  Vikes won by 6 points.

Notwithstanding last week’s mythical profitability, I must remind everyone that there is no inside information nor any unique insight contained in these Mythical Picks; they are not and should not be taken as authoritative.  No one should use anything written here as the basis for making a real wager on areal NFL game this weekend if the wager involves real money.  Here is how stupid you would have to be to do something like that:

If I told you that Christmas fell on Friday this year, you would hope it was not a Friday the 13^th.

General Comments:

For reasons of Thanksgiving Holiday social commitments, these comments will be significantly curtailed this week.  Last week, the Cleveland Browns gave up 8 sacks in their loss to the Steelers.  As you might imagine, teams that give up 8 sacks in a game are highly likely to come out on the short end of the stick.  The Browns have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and Thanksgiving Day is not yet upon us.  That is something else that happens to teams that yield 8 sacks in a game…

That loss set the Browns record for the 2016 season at 0-11 meaning they must now be watched carefully in terms of becoming only the second team in the NFL ever to go winless in a 16-game season.  The Lions sank to those depths in 2008.

Let me project for a moment that the 2016 Browns will match that level of incompetence and fail to win a game this year.  If that is the case, you know that people will try to compare the two levels of ignominy to identify which team was more inept.  Let me offer some data here for your cogitation:

1. In 2008, the Detroit Lions were 4-0 in the Exhibition Season and then lost every game in the regular season.  One could argue that this demonstrates the abject meaninglessness of the Exhibition Season games; or one could argue that this record demonstrated that the 2008 Lions had a small kernel of talent/competency at the core.
2. In 2016, the Cleveland Browns were 0-4 in the Exhibition Season and – if my surmise here were to come to pass – they would then have lost every game in the regular season too.  They would have lost 20 games in the 2016 season when on the same field with professional competition.

Think about it for a while because come January 2017, I believe this will be a topic of discussion in sports commentaries…

With the Steelers win over the Browns last week and with the Ravens loss to the Cowboys, the Steelers and Ravens are tied atop the AFC North division.  The two teams have gotten there in opposite ways.  The Ravens win on defense and have prevailed in a lot of really close games; the Steelers go out and outscore opponents.  The Ravens’ defense did a good job in containing Ezekiel Elliott until a final long run from scrimmage added significantly to his yardage total for the game.  Not to worry though if you are a Cowboys’ fan; Dak Prescott stepped up and delivered 301 yards and 3 TD passes for the day to win the game comfortably.

For the past several seasons, the Bengals have joined the Steelers and Ravens in dominating the AFC North and finding ways to get more than one team from that division into the playoffs.  That is not looking to be likely this year.  As of this morning the Bengals record is 3-6-1 and the future looks grim.  In the Bengals’ loss last week to the Bills, the Bengals appear to have lost the services of AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard for the rest of the year.  That takes a big chunk out of a Bengals’ offense that has only produced 20 points per game this year.

I wonder if this downturn in success by the Bengals will put Marvin Lewis’ job in jeopardy.  Going into the season, Lewis had made the playoffs for 5 straight years and had lost in the first playoff game each time.  Some speculated that he would need to win a playoff game or wind up looking for a new gig.  At least one columnist in Cincy is turning up the heat already.  Stay tuned …

The Seahawks beat the Eagles by 11 points behind a very good game from Russell Wilson.  It was not a spectacular win but it was very workmanlike.  As of this morning, I think the Cowboys and the Seahawks are the two best teams in the NFC by a significant margin.  They do not meet in the regular season; I suspect they will meet in January 2017…

In the NFC North, the Lions and Vikes have the same 6-4 record.  The Lions own the tiebreaker here based on a win over the Vikes a couple of weeks ago.  The teams meet in the early game on Thanksgiving Day and I have to say that it has been a while since the “early game” on Thanksgiving Day had inherent significance for both participants.  Both of these teams won last week.

The Vikes cracked a 4-game losing streak with a 30-24 win over the Cards.  The Lions beat the Jags 26-19.  There was an eerie similarity in the way these two teams won:

• Both teams had a Pick Six last week.  The Vikes was a 100-yard return.
• The Lions returned a punt for a TD.
• The Vikes returned a kickoff for a TD.

Could be an interesting time on Thursday afternoon …

In their loss to the Lions last week, the Jags gave up that punt return for a TD and that Pick Six and threw in yet another INT.  The Jags are 2-8 so far this year.  Are you surprised?

In the Cards’ loss to the Vikes – giving the Cards a 4-5-1 record for the year – it sure looked to me as if Carson Palmer’s career arc was on a steep downward slope.  We saw what happened last year when the team had to play backups at QB and it was not pretty.  Perhaps the Cards are in for a “tear-down/rebuild” project?

The Chiefs loss to the Bucs in KC was a surprise and it may be a loss that comes back to haunt the Chiefs somewhere down the road.  It was the Chiefs’ first loss at home this year.

The Rams led the dolphins 10-0 with 5 minutes to play in the game.  Up to then, the Rams’ defense had dominated the game; the Dolphins gained a total of 88 yards on offense in the first 55 minutes of the game.  Then the Rams gave up 2 TDs in the final 5 minutes to allow the Dolphins to win their 5^th game in a row.  The first 11 possessions for the Dolphins ended as such:

• 10 punts
• 1 INT

Then came the deluge…  Jared Goff made his first start for the Rams; he was 17 for 31 for 134 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs.  Let me label that as “less than fully satisfactory” and leave it at that…

The Games:

All 32 teams are in action this week.  The final teams with BYE Weeks for the 2016 season will take them next week.

(Thurs Early Afternoon) Minnesota at Detroit – 2.5 (43): This game means a ton to the Lions.  If they win, they will be one game ahead of the Vikes in the NFC North standings on the basis of wins and losses and will be two games ahead in reality because they will have won both head-to-head games this season.  I know, by inversion, that means the game means a lot to the Vikes too.  I have a hunch that last week’s win – ugly as it was – over the Cards gave the Vikes a new lease on life in the NFC North and that they will carry that forward here.  I’ll take the Vikes plus the points.

(Thurs Late Afternoon) Washington at Dallas – 7 (51):  This is not the Game of the Week – – but it is indeed the Game of Thanksgiving Day.  Why the NFL scheduled the Skins to play on Sunday night last week and then had to go on the road to play on Thursday afternoon this week for their subsequent game is something known only to the folks on mahogany row in NFL HQs.  The Skins are playing very well and Kirk Cousins is playing to prove that his $20M salary this year is a baseline for this upcoming long-term contract negotiations.  Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are playing on rookie contracts that cannot see as high as $20M annually without a 100-inch telescope.  I said above that I think the Cowboys and the Seahawks are the class of the NFC; this is the time for class to show itself.  I’ll take the Cowboys and lay the points.

(Thurs Nite) Pittsburgh – 3 at Indy (54):  Short and sweet here…  I think the Steelers are the better team and I think that they are poised to make a late season run to assure themselves the AFC North title.  I like the Steelers to win and cover – even on the road.

San Diego at Houston – 2 (46.5):  The Texans hold a 1-game lead over the Colts and a 1.5 game lead over the Titans in the AFC South.  This game means a lot to them regarding the AFC playoffs.  The Chargers are not going to make even a slight noise – not even a whimper – in the AFC West but that is because the three teams above them are really good – – much better than the Texans.  I like the Chargers plus the points here because I think the Texans are nothing more than the best of a sorry lot – so far this year – in the AFC South.

Tennessee – 3 at Chicago (42.5):  I know that I took the Bears last week and that they covered last week.  Nonetheless, the Bears lost last week.  I think the Titans are the better team here and I think the Titans would love to take this opportunity to win a game on the road as a favorite just to get some of the “disbelieving media” to shut up.  I like the Titans to win and cover.

Jax at Buffalo – 7.5 (45.5):  This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  At 5-5, the Bills are not out of the wild-card race; they are not in good shape in that race, but they can still play to achieve that objective.  The Bills’ problem is that they are anything but consistent.  The Jags are an underachieving hot puddle of pig puke.  I am turning this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the game to stay UNDER.

Cincy at Baltimore – 4 (40.5):  Both teams will know the outcome of the Steelers/Colts game from Thursday nite.  Both teams will see that outcome and recognize that a Steelers’ loss will give them a huge opportunity here and that a Steelers’ win will put the loser of this game in a disadvantageous position.  In fact, in the latter case, if the Steelers win and Bengals lose, the Bengals are probably toast.  I think the two injuries cited above (AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard) will doom the Bengals on the scoreboard.  My hesitation here is that the Ravens do not know how to put teams away; they always seem to find a way to make a game come down to the final two or three plays.  With trepidation, I’ll take the Ravens and lay the points.

Arizona at Atlanta – 4 (50):  Arizona needs this win if it is going to continue to consider the playoffs as anything more than a fairy tale.  As of this morning, the Cards trail the Seahawks in the NFC West by 3 full games; after this contest, there will be only 5 more games in the regular season.  The Falcons are still living off the huge cushion they created with their fast start to the regular season; the Falcons are a game ahead of the Bucs in the NFC South.  I think the Falcons will be able to throw the ball and score on the Cards’ defense despite the statistical advantage the Cards enjoy on defense in this game.  On the other hand, the Falcons’ secondary is nothing to write home about (28^th in the NFL giving up 283 yards per game) and if the Cards cannot throw and score on it, then the Cards are finito.  I agree with the oddsmaker here; this game will be a shoot-out and will not be decided until the final few minutes of the game.  I will make this a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Falcons to win and cover.

SF at Miami – 8 (45.5):  I am trying to think of some sort of “advantage” that the Niners might enjoy in this contest.  Given the venue, the distance they have to travel, the talent deficit they suffer and the motivation factor on the side of their opponents, it is hard to like anything about the Niners here.  I’ll take the Dolphins to win and cover at home giving them their 6^th straight win.

LA at New Orleans – 7.5 (46):  Short and sweet here …  I was underwhelmed by Jared Goff’s opening act last week at home.  On the road in a raucous atmosphere like the Superdome, I think he will have difficulty – – even against the Saints defense (28^th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 14^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game).  I’ll take the Saints and lay the points.

Giants – 7 at Cleveland (44.5):  The Browns yielded 8 sacks last week; the Giants defense can rush the passer.  The Browns’ running game is meek (25^th in the NFL).  I do not see the Browns lighting up the scoreboard here.  On the flip side, the Giants are primarily a passing team.  The Browns’ secondary has given up more TD passes than any other defense in the NFL – 25 so far this year.  I like the Giants to win and cover on the road.

Seattle – 6 at Tampa (45):  I do think the Seahawks are the better team here.  However, that transcontinental trip to the game does not make me anxious to lay 6 points.  I sense a defensive game here so I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Carolina at Oakland – 3.5 (48):  Under normal circumstances, I would think that this is one of the less meaningful games on both team’s schedules.  It is not a division game; it is not even a conference game.  However, the Raiders are alone in first place in the AFC West and enjoy the same overall record as the Patriots.  They are motivated to hold their playoff positioning.  Meanwhile the Panthers are in last place in the NFC South but they are only 2 games out of first place there; they are actually in better shape to win their division at the moment than they are to be a wild card team.  They too are motivated for this game if they still harbor playoff dreams.  The Raiders prevailed last week over the Texans but gave up 243 yards to Brock Osweiler in the process; Cam Newton is better than that.  I like the Panthers plus the points here.

New England – 7.5 at Jets (46.5):  This spread opened at 9 points but quickly dropped to 8 points and is now at this level at most of the sportsbooks as of this morning.  I assume that the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB again this week; I cannot see them going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick again this year absent a dire emergency circumstance and the fact that they put Petty out there instead of Christian Hackenberg tells me that they think Petty is the “more advanced student” at this time.  If I am right, then the Jets will enter the game with an over-matched QB who is not ready for the sorts of subtleties that the Pats’ defense can show him.  I think this could be a rout – even though the Jets’ defense is solid (11^th in the NFL in total defense).  I’ll take the Pats and lay the points – even in the Big Apple.

(Sun Nite) KC at Denver – 3.5 (39):  This is the Game of the Week.  These teams are tied for second place – and for the two wild card slots in the AFC – each with a record of 7-3.  The loser here should find itself tied with the dolphins for the second wild card slot in the AFC while the winner would either be in the driver’s seat for the first slot or might be tied with the Raiders for the division lead.  This is a big game but it is not the only time these squads will see each other this year; they will meet again in KC on Christmas Night.  I think this will be a defense-dominated game where points will be at a premium.  In games like this, I like to take the points so I’ll take the Chiefs plus the points here.

(Mon Nite) Green Bay at Philly – 4 (47.5):  The Packers are 1-4 on the road; they have lost 4 games in a row; they have a ton of injuries; there is not much to recommend them here except that they have Aaron Rodgers at QB and even if this is indeed a down year for him compared to other seasons, he is still a great QB.  The Eagles are 4-0 at home; they lost last week to a better team but more importantly they lost 2 RBs in the game to injuries; Carson Wentz may indeed be their QB of the future, but he is not yet anything close to Aaron Rodgers.  I can make a case against both squads here so I’ll turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol.  The coin says to take the Packers plus the points.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Last week was a “cha-cha week” for Mythical Picks – – two steps forward and then two steps back.  I made 14 picks and the record was 7-7-0.  That makes the cumulative record for the season 82-51-3.

The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol was far more successful.  I flipped the coin twice and the record was 2-0-0.  For the season the coin is now in positive/mythically profitable territory at 10-8-0.

The Best Picks of the week were:

• Cowboys +2.5 against Steelers.  Cowboys won straight up.
• Titans +3 against Packers.  Titans won by 22 points.

The Worst Picks of the week were:

• Bears “pick ‘em” against Bucs.  Bears lost by 26 points.
• Jets -2 against Rams.  Jets lost despite not giving up a TD in the game.

Time for the weekly reminder…  No one should use any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money.  Only a dumbass would do that and here is how dumb that dumbass would have to be:

He thinks Velcro is nothing but a rip off.

General Comments:

In last week’s Thursday Night Football offering, you kinda knew that the game was going to suck from the get-go.  On the first play of the game, the Browns kicked off to the Ravens and nothing of import happened there.  Then, before the Ravens could run the first play of the game from scrimmage, the Browns had to call timeout because someone on the sidelines counted 12 players on defense.  Only, there weren’t 12 players on the field; there were 11.  The game went downhill from there.  As has happened several times this year, the Browns got off to a lead and actually led at halftime 7-6.  Even though rookie QB, Cody Kessler led the Browns to the TD in the first half that gave them the lead there, the Browns pulled him in the 3^rd quarter in favor of Josh McCown.  I have no explanation for that decision.

The Ravens’ defense held the Browns to 144 yards’ total offense on 48 offensive plays.  That is exactly 3 yards per play; Woody Hayes was looking down on this game and wondering where the cloud of dust had gone.  The Ravens collected 3 turnovers in the game and managed 4 QB sacks.  How all of that translated to a lead for the Browns at halftime is mysterious even though I watched it unfold.  The final score was 28-7; it was not that close.

The Ravens’ record is 5-4 – which is not particularly noteworthy except for the fact that they now lead the AFC North Division by a game over the Steelers.  This week, the Ravens take on the Cowboys and if they want to be certain to maintain that lead, they are going to have to play a lot better this week than they did last week.

The Steelers lost to those same Cowboys last week 35-30 in what was an immensely entertaining game.  Ezekiel Elliott had 114 yards rushing and another 95 yards receiving and he scored 3 TDs in the game.  Other than that, he was pretty much invisible…  Fellow-rookie Dak Prescott threw for 319 yards.  Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger had one of his 400+ yards passing days in a losing effort; he also managed 3 TD passes.  Perhaps Roethlisberger’s “fake-spike/TD pass to Antonio Brown” was the best play of the year so far?

Staying in the AFC North, the Bengals lost to the Giants 21-20 on MNF.  The Giants dominated the stat sheet but only eked out a win on the scoreboard. Consider:

• Giants 23 first downs             Bengals 12 first downs
• Giants 351 yards’ offense       Bengals 264 yards’ offense
• Giants 2 penalties for 15 yards           Bengals 9 penalties for 60 yards
• Giants recorded 3 sacks         Bengals recorded 1 sack.

The Giants are now 6-3 and are in a good spot with regard to the NFC Wild Card race.  The Bengals are now 3-5-1 and need to pass both the Steelers and Ravens to get to the top of the AFC North.  While that is not impossible, it is important for the Bengals – the other teams in the AFC North to keep in mind because the way the races are shaping up, it would appear as if only one team from that division is going to make the AFC playoffs this year.

The “legend” of Andy Dalton not being able to win “night games” got another piece of supporting evidence last week.  When the kickoff is at nighttime, Dalton’s record as a starting QB is 5-10.  Last week his passing stats were 16 for 29 for 204 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  While those stats are by no means “Hall of Fame quality” numbers, they are actually inflated and make his performance look better than it was.  In the first quarter – coming from what Jon Gruden called a “goofy formation” – Dalton connected on a 71-yard pass and run to Tyler Eifert.  Therefore, for the rest of the game here is Dalton’s stat line:

• 15 for 25 for 133 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT

Not good…

The Oakland Raiders had their BYE Week last week but their two main rivals in the AFC West were on the card and they both won.  The Chiefs trailed the Panthers 17-0 at halftime and trailed 17-3 in the 4^th quarter.  The Panthers managed to invent ways to lose and the Chiefs found ways to take advantage of every Panthers’ blunder late in the game leading to the Chiefs winning 20-17.  Cam Newton threw a very poor ball that resulted in a Pick Six for the Chiefs and then in the final minute with the score tied, WR Kelvin Benjamin caught a pass and allowed a Chiefs’ defender to steal the ball from him to set up a Chiefs’ field goal that would win the game.  The Chiefs held the ball for less than 25 minutes in the game; the Chiefs were only 2 for 12 on third down conversions; the Chiefs lost the total offense stat by 87 yards; the Chiefs only averaged 4.3 yards per pass.  Nonetheless the Chiefs won.  That puts the Chiefs in first place in the AFC West with a 7-2 record (same as the Raiders) based on a tiebreaker situation.  The Panthers are looking up at the rest of the NFC South with a 3-6 record.  The Panthers are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but unless they find a magic lamp with a genie in it, they are pretty much cooked at this point in the season.

The other AFC West contender, the Broncos, also had a miracle comeback to win last week beating the Saints in New Orleans 25-23.  The margin of victory here was a blocked PAT with about a minute-and-a-half left in the game that was recovered by the defense and returned to the end zone earning 2 points for the Broncos.  This was an “inversion game” for the Saints; their defense played well sacking Broncos’ QB, Trevor Siemian, 6 times; meanwhile, the offense lost 2 fumbles in the 4^th quarter giving the Broncos the opportunity to get to the point where that blocked PAT was a difference maker.  The Broncos are 7-3 in the AFC West; their BYE Week comes up this week.  Meanwhile, the Saints at 4-5 – and tied with the Bucs – have ground to make up on the Falcons in the AFC South.

The Falcons gave the other teams in the division a bit of a breather last week when the Falcons lost to the Eagles 24-15.  What happened here is that the Eagles’ defense totally constipated the Falcons offense and shut the system down.  When they kicked off this game, the Falcons had averaged 33.9 points per game as a team; they managed only 15 points last week.  In the previous 9 games, the lowest offensive output for the Falcons had been 363 yards; they managed only 303 yards last week.  The Falcons only ran the ball for 48 yards in the game and were only 2 for 11 on third down situations.  The Eagles held the ball for just over 38 minutes in the game running the ball almost at will for big chunks of yardage.  Led by Ryan Matthews 109 yards and 2 TDs, the Eagles gained 207 yards on 38 carries (5.4 yards per carry).  That Eagles’ victory did not do much for the team regarding the NFC East standings because every team in that division won last week; I mentioned the Cowboys and Giants above so …

The Skins beat the Vikes last week 26-20.  The Vikes got all 20 of their points in the second quarter; other than that, the Vikes’ offense was dormant.  In the second half of the game – if my reading of the Gametracker is correct – the Vikes had the ball for 4 possessions and gained a total of 94 yards on those 4 possessions.  Were it not for the fact that the Vikes’ offense has been pathetic for the entire season, I would call that a dominating defensive performance by the Skins.  The Vikes won their first 5 games of the year and now have lost the next 4.  I am sure that has been done at some point in NFL history but I am far too lazy to go and see when it happened and/or how many times it has happened.  My sense is that it does not happen often…  The Vikes and Lions have the same 5-4 record in the NFC North and the Lions lead the division for the moment thanks to a tiebreaker.

INTERLUDE:  Kirk Cousins stat line last week was 22 for 33 for 262 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  For the 2016 season, Cousins had completed 66.9% of his throws; he is averaging 302 yards per game; he has thrown 14 TDs and 7 INTs; he has led 3 fourth quarter comebacks for wins in 9 games.  I mention this because Cousins is playing this year on a franchise tag contract worth $20M in round numbers.  At the end of last year, the Skins did not make him a long-term offer that suited him and put the franchise tag on him.  Reports say the Skins were unwilling to make any offer that was higher than an average of $16M per season over the life of the deal.

• Memo To Skins’ Braintrust:  Be prepared to go FAR north of those numbers this February.

The Skins have 3 realistic options with Cousins for the years to come.  Underlying all of those options is a simple fact.  Kirk Cousins is their single – and maybe only – best option as a franchise QB for the foreseeable future.  By putting him on the $20M deal for this season the Skins have accomplished the following:

If they franchise him again exclusively, they have to offer him another 1-year deal with a 20% raise.  That means they have to pay him $24M for next year – guaranteed and counting fully toward the Skins salary cap in 2017 – the minute the ink is dry on the contract.

If they offer him a non-exclusive franchise tag, they can let Cousins’ agent seek a long-term deal elsewhere but it would cost the signing team 2 first round picks in addition to what they pay for Cousins. Since that is not a likely scenario, I will ignore it for the moment.

They can reach a long term-deal with Cousins who had great leverage here for two reasons:

If there is no good long-term offer, he can always play next year for $24M.  That is well above the poverty line…

The Skins really do not have a better option to go out and get.  On their roster, they have Colt McCoy who is an excellent back-up/stopgap and Nate Sudfeld who is a rookie QB from Indiana that people speak highly of – but he has never taken a snap in anger in the NFL.  Who are the veteran QBs that will become available this year?  Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colin Kaepernick probably lead the list; there are always the McNown brothers; if a team wanted to trade for Jay Cutler, the Bears might be happy to make such a deal.  If the idea is to draft a franchise QB, then the Skins’ scouts must have uncovered someone that I have not seen in any of the college football games I have watched this year.

Kirk Cousins is the Skins’ best option and he – and his agent – will be using this year’s $20M figure and next year’s default value of $24M as the starting points in the negotiations.  END OF INTERLUDE.

The Green Bay Packers are a team in trouble.  Last week they lost to the Titans 47-25 and it was a real beatdown not a fluke.  The Packers threw the ball 51 times in the game and surrendered 5 sacks; they were penalized 12 times for 107 yards in the game; they converted only 4 of 15 third down attempts and they gave up 5 passing TDs in the game (1 by Titans’ RB, Demarco Murray).  This was a stone-cold bedwetting by the Packers.  At the start of the game, the Packers had the #2 rushing defense in the NFL; the Titans ran for 162 yards in the game.  I understand that the Packers have had significant injuries all over their roster, but in this game, they fell behind 21-0 – and later trailed 35-10 – and seemingly just tossed in the jockstrap early in the game.

The Titans are 5-5 for the year and trail the Texans in the AFC South by only 1.5 games.  At the start of the year, the Titans’ offense was a mirage; in their first 5 games, they managed to score only 79 points; that was 15.8 points per game.  In their last 3 games, the Titans have scored 118 points; that is 39.3 points per game.  Big difference there …

The Bucs beat the Bears 36-10 and the game was not as close as it looks; the Bears’ TD came on Hail Mary with time expiring in the first half.  Other than that, this game was dominated by the Bucs.  The Bears turned the ball over 4 times in this game; that is a bad situation but it was actually worse than that; the Bears committed all 4 of those turnovers in the first half.  When you add 4 sacks given up plus 9 penalties and 2 for 11 on third downs, you can see how the Bears took gas last week.

There is a wagering angle to this game that should be mentioned here.  When I made this Mythical Pick on Thursday morning last week, the line was “pick ‘em” everywhere but 1 sportsbook that had the Bears as a 1-point favorite.  According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, the spread at kickoff time was Bears – 3.  That means there was a lot of money that came in late in the week – lines do not move when people bet tens or hundreds of dollars – and the clear majority of the late money was on the Bears – hence the line movement to entice people to take the Bucs and sort of balance the book.  Given the outcome, the books probably cleaned up on that game last week; all of that “Bears’ money” quickly turned into “house money” …

The Rams beat the Jets 9-6.  This was the totally awaited QB showdown between Case Keenum and Bryce Petty.  Neither QB let the fans down; neither one managed to exceed the truly low expectations anyone had for them.  Here are the stat lines; please do not get your hopes up:

• Case Keenum: 17 for 30 for 165 yards with 0 TDs and 0 INTs
• Bryce Petty:  19 for 32 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.

Be still my heart …

This is the second time this year that the Rams have won a game without scoring a TD; in Week 2, they beat the Seahawks 9-3.  I am sure that teams would win games without scoring a TD more frequently in the 30s and 40s than they do these days but I cannot recall that sort of thing happening any time recently.  The Jets did score a TD; it came on a hook-and-lateral style play from inside the 10 yardline.  That was their only productive possession of the game; other than the TD drive, the Jets had the ball 9 other times; they punted 8 of those times and had the clock expire for halftime on the other possession.  The Rams have scored 2 TDs in their last 3 games; the Rams’ defense is what has kept those games close.  In those 3 games the total scoring by BOTH teams is 65 points.

The Dolphins beat the Chargers 31-24.  Ryan Tannehill threw for 240 yards and 2 TDs in this game; those are not spectacular numbers but they do show that the Dolphins won this game without having to rely on Jay Ajayi to run for 200 yards and dominate the offense.  The Dolphins have now won 4 in a row and are alone in second place in the AFC East.  However, even with the Pats’ loss last week (to be discussed next), the Dolphins remain 2 full game behind the Pats.

Philip Rivers is having a good season but he threw up on his shoes in the fourth quarter last week.  Rivers threw 4 INTs IN THE 4^th QUARTER alone.  Nevertheless, the score was tied with a minute to play with the Chargers in possession on the Dolphins side of the field when Rivers threw a Pick Six to LB, Kiko Alonzo.  Ball game…  The Chargers record now stands at 4-6 and they are pretty much out of the playoff picture.  Interestingly, the Chargers have to pay a visit to Cleveland on the next-to-last week of the season (Christmas Eve).  By then the Chargers will be “playing for pride” and they will be in a very “un-San Diego” weather situation.  Might that be where the Browns can find a win for the 2016 season?

The Seahawks beat the Pats 31-24.  The Seahawks won this game in the same way that the Pats won their Super Bowl confrontation – with a goal line stand in the final minute of the game.  The Pats had 4 plays from the 2 yardline and did not score.  The Seahawks also intercepted a pass in the game which is news only because it was the first INT thrown by any Pats’ QB this year; it came in the 9^th game of the Pats’ season.  Russell Wilson threw for 348 yards and 3 TDs in the game and rookie RB, CJ Prosise contributed 153 yards from scrimmage in the game.  The Pats still control the AFC East; the Seahawks control the NFC West.  If that game is any indicator, I would not mind seeing a re-match come February in the Super Bowl…

The Texans beat the Jags 24-21.  This is the third highest scoring total for the Texans this year so you might think that this was some kind of offensive breakout.  No, it was not…  The Texans got one TD on a Pick Six; the Texans total passing offense was 92 yards.  Once again, the Jags scored a late TD – just over 2 minutes to go in the game – and made a 2-point conversion to make the score appear as if the game was in doubt for much of the 4^th quarter.  It was not…

The Cards beat the Niners 23-20.  Form a wagering perspective, this is the first time since Week 1 when the Niners shut out the Rams that the Niners have covered against the spread.  The Cards were 13-point favorites when I did Mythical Picks on Thursday; they were 14-point favorites in Las Vegas and 14.5-point favorites at Internet wagering sites at kickoff.  The Niners covering tells me that the books cleaned up on that game as they did on the Bears/Bucs game (see above).  The story of the game was that the Cards kept turning the ball over (Niners got 4 turnovers) and the Cards just could not score once they got in the Red Zone (Cards were in Red Zone 5 times and got 2 TDs, 2 field goals and lost a fumble on the 5^th visit there).

Chip Kelly’s offense relies on being able to run the football more than a little bit.  Last week, the Niners’ run offense was anemic; featured RB, Carlos Hyde ran the ball 13 times for 14 yards.  That stat is best expressed as:

38.77 inches per carry

Before getting to this week’s games, consider these three stats:

1. The highest scoring team in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers (293 points in 10 games).  The Chargers are in last place in the AFC West.
2. The second highest scoring team in the AFC is the Tennessee Titans (264 points in 10 games).  At the start of the season they went 5 games until they scored more than 20 points in a single game.
3. The Vikings’ offense is dead last in the NFL in terms of yards gained per game.  That’s right; they rank below the Rams, Niners and Browns all of whom are certifiably awful on offense.

The Games:

The Broncos have the week off and might just be considering how short a leash Trevor Siemian needs to have.  If Paxton Lynch is showing anything positive in practice …

The Chargers have the week off and players might begin speculating where the team will play next year to get a jump on the real estate market wherever…

The Falcons have the week off and they need to relocate their running game and to get the front 7 on defense back to tackling opposing running backs…

The Jets get an extra week to look at the film and wonder what the hell they were thinking when they drafted Bryce Petty in the 4^th round back in 2015…

(Thurs Nite) New Orleans at Carolina – 3.5 (52):  This has happened before; the NFL offers up the Dog-Breath Game of the Week on Thursday Night and gets that stink out of the way before the main presentation on Sunday.  Both teams come to the kickoff with records below .500; no other game this week can make that claim.  To its credit, this is a division game and that might add a smidgen of spark to the contest, but finding lots of nice things to say here is like digging through a mountain of horsesh*t looking for a pony.  Both teams lost horrible heartbreakers last week (see above); perhaps it will be interesting to see which team cones back from that situation better?  I doubt it.  If the Panthers lose this one, their division record will be 0-4 meaning they will not do well in any tiebreaker situations further meaning they will have to win the division to make the playoffs. The Saints are in a similar – but slightly less dire – situation.  Make this purely a venue call; I’ll take the Panthers to win and cover.

Tennessee at Indy – 3 (53):  The Titans are on a roll; they are scoring points by the barrel (see above).  The Colts’ defense is 30^th in the NFL in yards per game allowed (402.8) and they are 29^th in the NFL in points allowed per game (28.4).  So, I have to stop and take a look at that spread and wonder what other factor(s) I must be ignoring.  Well, the Colts had their BYE Week last week to recuperate a bit and to have some extra time to plan for this matchup and the game is in Indy where the Colts are historically much better than they are on the road.  A win for the Colts would give them a sweep over the Titans assuring the Colts the head-to-head tiebreaker if needed in January 2017.  Oh, and Andrew Luck sliced and diced the Titans’ defense for 353 yards in that encounter a month ago.  I have not talked myself into taking the Titans here but I have talked myself into subjecting this game to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol; the coin says to take the Titans plus the points.  That brings everything full circle because that is what I thought I wanted to do in the first place…

Jax at Detroit – 6.5 (47):  How nice was last weekend to the Lions?  They got to sit home and rest and watch the Vikes, Packers and Bears all lose their games putting the idle Lions in first place in the NFC North.  This week, they get to stay home and welcome the Jags who bring their 2-7 record to the kickoff.  I’ll take the Lions and lay the points here.  However, let me also say that I will not be shocked to see the Jags score a meaningless TD in the final 2 minutes to cover here.  The Jags have been known to do that more than occasionally.

Tampa at KC – 7.5 (45):  The Chiefs are hot; they are in first place in the AFC West (thanks to a tiebreaker); they have won 5 in a row; they are undefeated at home.  The Bucs had a big win last week albeit over the decrepit Bears; the Bucs need this game to maintain relevance in their division; the Bucs are better on the road (3-1) than they are at home this year (1-4).  I think this will be a low scoring game and I am tempted to take the UNDER here.  However, in that kind of game, I will choose to take the Bucs plus the generous helping of points.

Chicago at Giants – 7.5 (45.5):  Before I go any further, the Bears stink; let me get that out of the way.  Here is the issue at hand with the line on this game.  The Giants are 6-3 on the season.  They beat the Rams by 7 points; that was the Giants’ largest margin of victory for the season.  The Giants do not score points; they only average 20.2 points per game.  Yes, I know, the Bears do not score either (15.7 points per game) but I find it hard to take the Giants (better team to be sure) and to lay more than a TD’s worth of points.  Purely a hunch, I’ll take the Bears plus the points on the road.  I said at the beginning that the Bears stink so I am holding my nose as I make this pick…

Arizona at Minnesota “pick ‘em” (41):  If you consider the expectations for these teams back in August, you would have to say they are both “grossly underachieving”.  Cards’ WR, Larry Fitzgerald missed practice on Wednesday following a knee injury last week that required an MRI after the game; the team says he is “day-to-day” as if that were not the case for everyone on the planet.  The oddsmaker wants me to pick a winner here so I will take the Cards to win the game because I think they are in a much better place as a team than the Vikes are as of today.

Buffalo at Cincy – 2.5 (47):  With a record of 3-5-1, you would expect that this was a do-or-die game for the Bengals but it really isn’t.  In the AFC North, the Ravens are in the lead at 5-4 and the Ravens face a tough game this week.  The Bills would never say this out loud, but they are out of the AFC East race with 5 losses on the books already.  The Bills represent an interesting public misconception that is based on image and reputation instead of reality.  Folks think of the Bills as a “defensive team”.  Even though the Bills have a sub-.500 record this year at 4-5, they have outscored opponents this year 237-202; in their 9 games, the Bills have scored only 4 fewer points than the Pats have scored – and everyone knows the Pats are an “offensive team”.  I like this game to go OVER.

Baltimore at Dallas – 7 (45):  I think this is the Game of the Week.  After all, it pits two teams that are in sole possession of first place in their divisions against one another.  The Cowboys rush for 161 yards per game – best in the NFL.  Ravens allow 71.3 yards per game rushing – best in the NFL.  In terms of points per game allowed, the Ravens are slightly better allowing 1.2 fewer points per game.  The teams are very similar in passing yards per game.  The big difference is in scoring offense.  The Cowboys are 4^th in the NFL scoring 28.7 points per game while the Ravens are tied for 24th in the league scoring 20.2 points per game.  I like the Cowboys at home to win and cover here.

Pittsburgh – 7.5 at Cleveland (47.5):  This spread opened the week at 10 points; it dropped to 9 points almost immediately and has been inching downward for the balance of the week.  People like to talk about “stability” in various sports franchises.  Here is a stat related to “stability” you should keep in mind regarding these teams:

• Since 1969, the Steelers have had 3 head coaches.
• Since 2013, the Browns have had 3 head coaches.

When you think of teams with big losing streaks this year, the Browns and Niners leap to mind.  Check carefully, and you will see that the Steelers have lost 4 in a row as have the Vikes.  The difference between the Steelers’ situation and the Vikes’ situation is that the Steelers get to play the JV squad this week.  I think the Steelers will blow up the Browns here; I’ll take the Steelers and lay the points even on the road.

Miami – 1 at LA (40):  This spread opened with the Rams as a 1-point favorite but that did not last long at all.  You can still find this game as a “pick ‘em” game at 2 sportsbooks this morning, but the rest of the books have the game at this number.  The Dolphins are hot; they are in second place in the AFC East and if/when one of the top AFC West teams trips up, the Dolphins are the team in a position to get right in the middle of a race for a wild card slot.  They are not a great road team (1-3 this season) but they are playing the Rams who are not a great home team (1-3 this season).  In terms of scoring defense, the teams are similar; Rams allow 19.2 points per game and Dolphins allow 22.9 points per game.  On offense, however, the Dolphins score 22.7 points per game while the Rams score only 15.7 points per game – lowest in the NFL.  I like the Dolphins to win and cover here.

New England – 13 at SF (51):  I hate double-digit spreads in NFL games.  Here we have a very good team (Pats) coming off a last-minute home loss last week traveling across 3 time zones to play an absolutely horrid team (Niners) that has been outscored by just over 10 points per game this season.  On paper, this is a nightmare game for the Niners, but it is also a relatively inconsequential game for the Pats.  It is not a division game; it is not a conference game; it is a road game; the Pats have a comfortable lead in the AFC East.  I will make this a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Niners plus the points.  YOWZA!

Philly at Seattle – 6 (44):  This is not the Game of the Week but it is certainly one of the most interesting games of the week.  The Eagles’ rookie QB gets to play against the stingy Seahawks’ defense in Seattle against the “12^th man”.  When Carson Wentz played the against the Vikes’ defense in Philly, he played well and the Eagles won the game; this is a game against a similarly stingy defense but in a far less cozy environment.  This game has layers of interest beyond the final score.  The Seahawks are undefeated at home; the Eagles are 1-4 on the road.  I like the Seahawks to win and cover here.

(Sun Nite) Green Bay at Washington – 2.5 (50):  I mentioned above Andy Dalton’s “inability” to win night games.  Well, apply that criterion to this game and here is what you find:

In the past 6 weeks, the Packers are 2-0 playing at night and 0-4 playing in the daytime.  That makes them a “Count Dracula Team”, right?

The Skins are more like Andy Dalton and the Bengals here.  In their last 12 night games, the Skins’ record is 2-10.

I have no feel for this game at all.  I can see ways for either team to wax the other one and have no idea which team will show up ready to be efficient and effective.  It is not as if either team is “reliable”.  I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol, and the coin says to take the game to go OVER.

(Mon Nite) Houston vs. Oakland – 5.5 (46) [Game is in Mexico City]:  This game is the obverse of the traditional argument about the irresistible force versus the immovable object.  This game pairs the worst passing offense in the NFL so far in 2016 (Texans at 187 yards per game) against a very porous pass defense, 30^th in the NFL, so far in 2016 (Raiders at 283.2 yards per game).  Which team’s level of “suckitude” will prevail in this confrontation?  I like the Raiders’ offense to take charge here.  I’ll take the Raiders and lay the points in what is actually a road game for both squads.

Finally, here is an item from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times from earlier this week:

“And in the latest protest news, Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans took a knee during the national anthem Sunday, saying he’ll never stand as long as Donald Trump is president.  Monday, it was revealed he didn’t even vote, and Tuesday he said he’ll be back to standing again.

“In other words, this receiver didn’t go long.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

Last week was a bland week for Mythical Picking.  I made 13 selections and the record for the week was 6-6-1.  That is about as exciting as a tofu on white-bread sandwich.  The season record for NFL Mythical Picks now stands at 81-50-4.

The Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol had a less-than-successful week.  There were 2 Coin Flip Games and the record was 0-1-1.  About halfway through the NFL season, the coins’ record stands at 8-8-1.  That is about what one ought to expect from flipping a coin…

The Best Picks from last week were:

• Lions +6 against Vikes.  Lions won straight up by 6 points.
• Cowboys -7 against Browns.  Cowboys covered easily.

The Worst Picks from last week were:

• Packers – 7.5 against Colts.  Colts won the game outright.
• Broncos “pick ’em” against Raiders.  Raiders won handily.

Notwithstanding the positive season record for NFL Mythical Picks, no one should think of using any information here as the basis for making a real wager on a real NL game this weekend involving real money.  You would have to be this stupid to do something like that:

You think pasteurize means out of sight.

General Comments:

The Miami Dolphins look to be on a roll having won 3 games in a row.  Their record now stands at 4-4 which may not look like an outstanding record, but it is sufficient to put the Dolphins in second place in the AFC East a half-game ahead of the Buffalo Bills who have now lost 3 games in a row.  If the playoffs were to start today, they would be in the playoffs as the #2 wild-card team in the AFC; their win over the Steelers a couple of weeks ago would be the tiebreaker that put them there.

In case you did not know, the last time the Dolphins were in the playoffs was all the way back in 2008.  Last week, the Dolphins beat the Jets 27-23.  The Jets are now 3-6 for the season and I know that it is not de rigueur for an NFL team to toss in the towel in November, but it is pretty much over for the Jets as of this moment.  Yes, they might win out and wind up 10-6 and sneak into the playoffs; yes, they might also plant some magic beans that grow into a beanstalk and …  What the Jets need to do is to start one of their raw rookie QBs to find out if he can even pretend to be an NFL QB somewhere down the line.  The current offensive “system” for the Jets is not working; they got into the red zone 5 times last week and scored only 1 TD; note they lost by only 4 points …

Oh, one more thing about the Jets …  It may be time for them to think about moving Darelle Revis from CB to Safety.  “Revis Island” is no longer inaccessible; someone has built a four-lane causeway out to the island.

Last week, Jay Ajayi ran for 111 yards against the Jets’ defense.  If there is any good news for the Jets in that number, it is that the Jets’ defense held Ajayi under 200 yards – a mark he surpassed in his previous 2 games.

The Bills were the other AFC East team in action last week and they lost to the Seahawks 31-25.  There were some “controversial calls” by the officials in the game and there were some totally botched calls by the official in the game.  In several of Dan Jenkins’ novels about football and the NFL, he has as characters in the books NFL referees who have bet on the games on the side and use their calls to assure that they cash their bets.  That is fiction and I doubt that any NFL official does anything close to that.  But if you wanted to make a made-for-TV-movie with that sort of thing as a plot element, there is NFL game footage from this year that can be used in the made-for-TV-movie to lend full credibility to the plot element.

The Seahawks’ OL continues to “struggle” – to put it politely.  Against the Bills the Seahawks ran the ball 12 times for 33 yards.  Their leading “rusher” was WR, Tyler Lockett who ran for 13 yards on a reverse; the second leading rusher was Russell Wilson who gained 10 yards on 3 carries.  Notwithstanding this sort of OL play, the Seahawks lead the NFC West by 2 full games as of today.

In other NFC West action, the Panthers beat the Rams 13-10. Which of these two situations obtained in this game:

• The Panthers ‘defense got back on track and played the way they did last year
• This was the Rams’ offense showing that it is – well – offensive.

You make the call…

Like the Seahawks, the Panthers’ OL needs to step up its game significantly.  The Rams sacked Cam Newton 5 times in this game and most of those sacks came in situations where the Panthers’ OL was overrun.

The Rams’ fans were not happy with the performance of Case Keenum at QB; after all, the Rams were still scoreless at the end of the 3^rd quarter.  The fans began chanting for rookie, Jared Goff, to come into the game; after those chants went unanswered some of the fans began chanting for Tim Tebow.

Memo for Rams’ Fans:  Just be aware that both Bob Waterfield and Norm Van Brocklin are not available to enter a game at QB because they are both – – dead.

By the way, the recipe for beating the Rams now seems pretty apparent.  If you can put the squeeze on RB, Todd Gurley, and make the Rams try to beat you through the air, you stand a good chance of winning the game.  The Panthers did just that and came away with the win – in the week after Cam Newton went to talk to the Commish about him not getting calls for roughing the passer.  Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle had this to say about that meeting:

“Cam Newton going to the NFL commissioner to plead for more protection — isn’t that odd for a guy who claims to be Superman?”

The Saints beat the Niners 41-23.  So, just how bad is the Niners’ defense?  The Saints – a team known for its dominant passing attack – ran the ball for 248 yards (Mark Ingram had 158 of those yards by himself.).  Lest you think that running game put Drew Brees on ice for the week, it did not.  Brees threw for 323 yards and 3 TDs.

The Chargers beat the Titans 45-33. Titans’ QB, Marcus Mariota, handed the Chargers 2 TDs in the game losing a fumble that turned into a Scoop-and-Score and then throwing a Pick Six.  There you have 14 points for the Chargers and the margin of victory was 12 points.  The Chargers rode RB, Melvyn Gordon’s, big day; Gordon ran for 196 yards and a TD on 32 carries.

The Raiders beat the Broncos in a nationally televised game 30-20.  Latavius Murray was dominant in this game rushing for 114 yards and a TD.  It is not often that the Broncos allow an opponent running back to gain 100 yards in a game.  On the flip side, the Raiders’ defense came to play shutting down the Broncos’ run game.  The Broncos tried to run the ball 12 times and gained a total of 33 yards.  The Raiders had the ball for 41:28 in the game.  The Raiders are in first place in the AFC West by half-a-game over the KC Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs beat the Jags 19-14 last week.  Chiefs’ TE, Travis Kelce, was ejected from the game after getting an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty from the official for his objection to a non-call in the end zone.  That is no big deal; every pass receiver worth his salt in the league does something like that on a weekly basis.  Kelce’s protest was a bit more melodramatic than usual and he got a flag.  What he did next was pure meatheadedness:

He reached into the pocket of his pants and took out a towel that was there and threw it at the official.  At that point the official gave Kelce a foreign language lesson by bidding him Sayonara!

The Jags outgained the Chiefs in this game 449 yards to 231 yards and they gained more than 200 yards on the ground.  Normally, those stats result in a victory; not here.  The Jags also turned the ball over 4 times leading to 13 of the Chiefs’ 19 points.  In another statistical anomaly, the Chiefs were 1 for 13 on third down – – and still won the game.

The Falcons beat the Bucs 43-28 last Thursday night to get the week off to an interesting start.  This was an entertaining game – not something that you could say about most of the Thursday Night Games that have preceded it this year.  Matt Ryan threw for 344 yards and 4 TDs while Jameis Winston threw for 261 yards and 3 TDs.

The Cowboys beat the Browns 35-10.  The Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott Show carried on.  Prescott was 21 for 27 for 247 yards and 3 TDs; Elliott averaged just over 5 yards per carry and scored 2 TDs.  The Browns trailed 21-10 at the half which means that the Browns were within hailing distance of the lead.  Then in the second half the Browns amassed a total of 28 yards offense.  YIKES!

With a record standing at 0-9, the Browns are now just a bit more than halfway to a winless season.  Here is the rest of their schedule:

At Ravens (tonight):  Browns are a double-digit underdog

Vs Steelers:  Browns will be a big underdog here

Vs Giants:  Giants will be in the middle of a playoff race

BYE Week:  Browns will not lose here…

Vs Bengals:  Bengals have won the last 4 meetings

At Bills:  Bills might be vulnerable this late in the season – but it is in Buffalo

Vs Chargers:  May be a meaningless game for the Chargers.

At Steelers:  Last win for Browns at Heinz Field was in October 2003.

The Ravens beat the Steelers 21-14 to take the lead in the AFC North after the Ravens had lost 4 games in a row.  Basically, the Ravens’ defense dominated the game; a meaningless score in “garbage time” makes the game look a lot closer than it was.  Consider:

• Steelers did not score a point in the first 3 quarters of the game
• Steelers had a total of 68 yards offense in the first half.
• Steelers were penalized 70, yards in the first half.
• Steelers’ RB, LeVeon Bell was held to 32 yards on 14 carries.

The AFC North looks as if it is going to be an interesting race down to the wire on Jan 1 2017…

The Giants beat the Eagles 28-23.  Note the difference here is 5 points and realize that the Eagles eschewed 2 very makeable field goals to go for it on 4^th down – unsuccessfully both times – in the game.  Eli Manning threw for 257 yards and 4 TDS to win the game in the Meadowlands.  The Giants lost WR Victor Cruz and OG Justin Pugh to injuries in that game.  If both are out for an extended period of time, that could be problematic for the Giants.

The Colts beat the Packers 31-26.  Andrew Luck played like a $100M QB in this game; the Colts went into the red zone 4 times and got 3 TDs on those ventures.  The Colts also scored a TD on a kickoff return.  After the game, Aaron Rodgers called out teammates with regard to “insufficient effort”.  That is never a good sign…  The Packers are in third place in the NFC North a game behind the Vikes and half a game behind the Lions.

The Lions beat the Vikes last week 22-16 in OT.  That is the 3^rd straight loss for the Vikes whose offense continues to “sputter” – to be polite about it.    Let me be clear about something here; the Vikes were never going to ride their offense into the playoffs; if they were to get there this year, it was going to be defense and special teams that carried the day.  Well the defense was good-but-not-great here; there were special teams’ hiccoughs and the offense stunk.

• Since their BYE Week, the Vikes offense has averaged 292 yards per game.
• Last week, the defense allowed the Lions to get in field goal position to force OT.
• Then the defense allowed the Lions to drive 87 yards for a winning TD in OT.
• Place kicker, Blair Walsh missed a PAT and had a field goal blocked in the game.

The NFC North race sees the Packers on the ropes and the Vikes stalled while the Lions are en fuego.  The Lions are 5-4 and in every win, they trailed in the final 2 minutes of regulation time.  Might the Lions be a “Team of Destiny” in 2016?

The Games:

There are 4 teams on their BYE Week this week:

• Buffalo needs to regroup; they have lost 3 games in a row.
• Detroit gets a week off to prepare for Jax next week and then the Vikes on Thanksgiving.
• Indy gets a week off hoping for a Houston loss on Sunday.
• Oakland gets a week off basking in the glory of first place in the AFC West.

One more thing before I get to the games and the lines for the week…  There are a couple of games that may be important in terms of the standings and the playoffs and that sort of thing this week.  However, there are no lines that jump out at me as luscious wagering options.  Sometimes, you get a week like that.  Hi-Ho!

(Thurs Nite) Cleveland at Baltimore – 10 (45):  This spread has wandered during the week.  It opened at 9.5 points; it went up to 10 points and stayed there for a day or so; then it came down to 9 points and is sitting at 8.5 points this morning with one sportsbook quoting8 points.  The Ravens beat the Browns by 5 points in Week 2 in Cleveland.  At this moment, the Ravens lead the AFC North and the Browns are winless.  I think this will be a low scoring game so I am torn between taking the Browns plus the points or taking the game to stay UNDER.  Decision made; I’ll take the game to stay UNDER.

Houston – 1.5 at Jax (42):  This game was a strong contender for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week even though the Texans are in first place in the AFC South.  The Texans have yet to win a game on the road this season but the Jags are hardly fearsome at home going 1-3 in their own playpen.  Both QBs in this game have shown a propensity to turn the ball over – usually at the worst possible times.  I am going to predict that Blake Bortles will be the more egregious turnover machine here.  I’ll take the Texans to win and cover even on the road.  Here is a meaningless trend that supports the pick I just made:

• Road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these teams.

KC at Carolina – 3 (44):  The Chiefs are on a roll – and they are on the road.  The Panthers have their backs to the wall in terms of making the playoffs this year – and they are at home.  Purely a venue call here, I like the Panthers to win and cover.

Denver at New Orleans – 2.5 (49):  That line is not a typo; Denver is a road underdog here.  Last week against the Raiders, the Broncos showed that their defensive backfield injuries leave that part of the defense vulnerable and the Broncos also showed that opponents can run on their D-Line this year.  [The loss of Derek Wolfe last week to a stress fracture of the elbow will not help with run defense at all.]  The Saints are not a running team – – but last week they ran the ball really well – albeit against the Niners – so this game could hinge on the ability of the Saints to run the ball a bit in order to make Drew Brees even more difficult to defend.  The Saints’ defense is not a good unit by any means, but the Broncos’ offense with injuries at RB and no long passing game to speak of will not test that unit much.  Hunch call here; I like the Saints to win and cover.

LA at Jets – 2 (40):  This game just missed out on the label “Dog-Breath Game of the Week”.  The Rams are not interesting nor are they any good; the Jets are not interesting nor are they any good.  Imagine the excitement leading up to kickoff for this showdown between Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  My body is breaking out in hives just thinking about that one.  Venue call here; I’ll take the Jets at home and lay the points.

Atlanta at Philly “pick ‘em”  (50):  Let me be concise; the Falcons are the better team here and they are 4-1 on the road.  I’ll take the Falcons to win the game here.

Minnesota at Washington – 2.5 (42):  The Skins will be without Pro Bowl LT, Trent Williams for 4 games starting here.  If the Vikes DL can exploit that absence and pummel Skins’ QB, Kirk Cousins, this could be a big win for the Vikes.  The problem is that the Vikes offense is the worst in the NFL by a decent margin.  If the Vikes’ defense does not score, turning the ball over and assuring good field position may not be sufficient.  I will call this a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Skins to win and cover at home.  This call by the coin flies in the face of the following trend:

• Vikes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
  

Green Bay – 3 at Tennessee (49.5):  The Titans like to run the ball; the Packers only allow 75.8 yards per game running.  The Packers might be able to show some balance on offense if they had an actual RB on the roster who was healthy enough to play.  Maybe James Starks can return there?  I like the Titans’ defense in this game and I like the fact that they are at home.  I’ll take the Titans plus the points.

Chicago at Tampa “pick ‘em” (46): Here we have the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Bears are 0-4 on the road this year; meanwhile the Bucs are 0-4 at home this year.  The oddsmaker wants me to “pick” the winner.  Even though I’d rather pick my nose, I’ll take the Bears to win the game.

Miami at San Diego – 3.5 (48.5):  Are the Dolphins for real?  They are riding a 3-game win streak and the running of Jay Ajayi to second place in the AFC East.  The Chargers are 4-5 but in the AFC West, that is nowhere near what the team record needs to be to command “relevancy”.  The Chargers’ defense is strongest against the run so this game will be very interesting.  I am calling this a Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Game and the coin says to take the Dolphins plus the points.  This time, there is a meaningless trend that agrees with the coin’s selection:

• Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games between these two teams.

SF at Arizona – 13 (48):  The Cards should be able to run the ball at will against the Niners’ defense.  In their last 3 games, the Niners have lost by 18 points, 17 points and 29 points.  I hate laying double-digit points in NFL games, but the Niners lose by those margins frequently.  I’ll take the Cards and lay the points – reluctantly.

Dallas at Pittsburgh – 2.5 (49.5):  This would have been the Game of the Week had not the Sunday Night matchup been on the card.  The way to beat the Cowboys is to stop the run and force Dak Prescott to beat you when he does not have that running game to collapse the defense inside.  I do not think that the Steelers have that sort of defense.  I think Dallas has a legitimate shot to win the game outright so I’ll take them plus the points here.

(Sun Nite) Seattle at New England – 7.5 (48.5):  Here we have the Game of the Week – – and it just might be a Super Bowl foreshadowing.  We do know that these two teams met in the Super Bowl recently in the famous game where Malcom Butler intercepted a pass on the 1 yardline to preserve a win for the Pats.  I think there will be plenty of scoring in this game so I’ll take the game to go OVER.

(Mon Nite) Cincy at Giants – 1.5 (47):  Neither team can afford a loss here but the odds are that one of them will wake up Tuesday morning with another game in the loss column; remember, it is possible for the game to end in a tie  The Bengals are 1-3 on the road this year; the Giants are 3-1 at home this year.  Venue call’ I’ll take the Giants to win and cover.

Finally, here is a comment from Brad Dickson in the Omaha World-Herald:

“NFL TV ratings are down. I pondered why on Thursday night as I switched from something like the 25th televised football game of the week to a rerun of ‘Hogan’s Heroes.’”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………