Author: Jack

NFL Season Predictions – 2018

A quick reset, if I may.  This is one of my annual exercises where I set out to embarrass myself.  I am going on the record here to predict the final regular season record for each and every NFL team and to predict the playoff pairings that will begin in January 2019.  [Aside:  I probably have a better chance of bringing peace to the Middle East by January 2019 than I do of getting all of this right.  But what the hey …]

These predictions will stay on the website as long as the website continues to exist as a monument to my ineptitude as a prognosticator.  I take solace in an old adage:

  • Prediction is difficult – – particularly when it deals with the future.

One more background item before getting down to business…  None of these predictions are made with any sort of malice or animus.  There will surely be teams who will have much better records in January than the ones I predicted for them in this piece.  I did not do that to disrespect the teams, the players, the coaches or the fans of that team; what I did was to make a mistake.  Under those circumstances, I do not owe anyone an apology; what I have to do is to admit that I was wrong.

With the administrative stuff out of the way, let me begin with an added feature of these annual things.  I want to make a list of the NFL Coaches on a Hot Seat – – before the season starts.  I will list them alphabetically lest anyone misinterpret and think that I have prioritized the heat on their seat:

  1. Jason Garrett (Cowboys):  He has been the full-time head coach of the Cowboys since 2011; the team’s cumulative record over that period is 62-50 with 2 playoff appearances and 1 playoff victory.  From all outward appearances, he and Jerry Jones have a relationship that is as close as one could have with someone who is not a blood relative.  Or, perhaps, Jason Garrett survives as the Cowboys’ coach because he does not push back against Jerry Jones’ “intrusions” into the football aspects of the Cowboys?  I dunno; I’m just tossing that out there for consideration…  However, at some point, this is nominally “America’s Team” and mediocrity is not going to cut it forever – unless Jerry Jones is happy cashing all the revenue checks he takes in and does not really give a rat’s ass about Super Bowl rings anymore.
  2. Adam Gase (Miami):  Yes, he had the Dolphins in the playoffs in 2016 and then had to try to navigate the 2017 season without his starting QB and with Jay Cutler on the field.  Call that whatever you wish; those were far-less-than-ideal circumstances.  However, the Dolphins let a bunch of their talented players take a hike.  Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh left in the off-season; Jay Ajayi was shipped out of town in the middle of last season amidst rumors of “friction” with the coaching staff.  Boy they sure punished him by trading him to the Super Bowl champion Eagles!  Adam Gase cannot survive another 6-10 season in Miami.
  3. Jay Gruden (Washington):  He has lasted longer than any coach in the Dan Snyder Era and is the only Skins’ coach in that Era ever to get a contract extension.  Nevertheless, his overall record on the job is sub-.500 and the organization/fanbase has higher expectations for this year’s team than in recent seasons.  The QB situation is no longer a weekly soap opera; the Skins have a solid player at that position and his contractual status is settled.  I think the Skins need to be 8-8 or better this year for Gruden to be on the job next year.  Looking at the Skins’ schedule, there could be a big trap early on.  The Skins open at Arizona then host the Colts and Packers before getting the early BYE Week.  If the Skins lose to the Cards and Colts and then get blown away by the Packers leading to that BYE Week …
  4. John Harbaugh (Ravens):  I had him on this list last year.  He led the Ravens to the Super Bowl championship in 2012.  Since then in 5 seasons the Ravens have a cumulative record of 40-40 with one playoff appearance.  Last year, the Ravens would have been in the playoffs had they beaten a mediocre Bengals’ team in the final game – – but they didn’t.  I think the Ravens need to win enough games to make the playoffs this year or they will be finding a new coach next winter.
  5. Hue Jackson (Browns):  With a coaching record in Cleveland of 1-32 over the past two seasons, I am surprised that he is back on the sidelines for another go-round.  There is nowhere to go but up from an 0-16 season and some folks are already talking about the Browns winning 8 games this year and even challenging for the AFC North title.  If ownership has those expectations, Jackson is cooked.  If he wins 5 games with that roster he ought to be given another season at the helm; if he wins the AFC North, the folks in Canton, OH should fit him for a yellow blazer.
  6. Vance Joseph (Denver):  The problem with the Broncos last year was more than just their 5-11 record; in addition, the team did not make a game of it far too often.  Yes, the Broncos were limited by their QB position but 5-11 and looking dispirited on the field is hard to take.  The Broncos have a new QB who will never be a Hall of Fame candidate but who is a step up from what they had last year.  The team must win more games this year and must be competitive in their losses or Vance Joseph will be out of a job after only 2 seasons.
  7. Dirk Koetter (Bucs):  It was not that long ago that the Bucs fired Lovie Smith to promote Koetter to the top job because of the great work he was nominally doing with Jameis Winston.  So, how’s that working out?  Well, the Bucs are 14-18 in Koetter’s two years in the head coaching position and Winston will be sitting out the first 3 games of the season on a suspension for violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy.  The schedule-maker did Koetter no favorites; the Bucs opponents in those 3 games without Winston will be Saints, Eagles and Steelers.  Ouch!
  8. Marvin Lewis (Bengals):  It seems as if I put him here every year, so I’ll do it again this year.  Actually, I think Lewis is relatively safe for this year unless the Bengals go 2-14 or something like that.  The reason is that he got a contract extension that runs through the end of the 2019 season and Mike Brown does not like to pay coaches not to coach.

I went back a forth about whether to put Todd Bowles on this list.  The Jets’ roster is not a good one and the Jets will start a QB who is 21 years old and only played in 27 games in college.  By all reason, the Jets should not be very good this year – and they were only 5-11 last year.  However, the reason I left him off the list is that the Jets were in the same situation as the 2017 season began; some folks thought that the Jets – not the Browns – would have a shot to go 0-16 for the season and Bowles somehow squeezed 5 wins out of that roster.  I think that overachievement from last season will get him a pass from 2018 and into 2019.

Now to the business at hand; I shall start in the AFC West.  My prediction is that this division will produce a cumulative record of 32-32 at the end of the season.  They may represent the “Left Coast”, but their record is pretty much “middle of the road”.

  1. LA Chargers (10-6):  That’s right; I am picking the Chargers to win the division this year.  I think the other teams in the division have come back to the Chargers and the best QB in the division is Philip Rivers.  They will need some other WR besides Keenan Allen to play well.  I think their weakness from last year was run defense and they seemingly have tried to improve that in the off-season.
  2. KC Chiefs (9-7):  The Chiefs’ D-line and run defense must improve; they got decent pass rush some weeks last year and not-so-good pressure on other weeks.  I think Andy Reid will have a good offense even with a new QB; the defense is “the issue”.  I am not sold on Sammy Watkins and the big money the Chiefs bestowed on him.  Watkins is 24 and this is his 3rd NFL team already.  He is not some journeyman roaming around looking for a place to hang his hat; he was a first-round pick and already 2 teams have “gone in a different direction”.
  3. Denver Broncos (8-8):  Last year, the Broncos’ pathetic offense kept them out of the playoff hunt; the defense was solid.  Case Keenum is not a Hall of Fame candidate anywhere in the future, but he is a significant step up from what the Broncos put on the field at QB last year – – and that assumes that Keenum does not improve even a little from last year to this year.  The Broncos will improve but not enough to win the division or make the playoffs.
  4. Oakland Raiders (5-11):  Their OL took a step back last year and their DL was just plain poor.  Football games are won and lost “in the trenches” and the Raiders paid dearly for those line failures.  The Raiders addressed the OL in the draft; I do not see how the DL is supposed to make a quantum leap this year over last year.  The Raiders’ WR corps will be interesting to watch.  Jordy Nelson is 33 – but he played well in Green Bay last year.  Amari Cooper pulled a disappearing act last year for the Raiders; will he find his way back this year?  Martavis Bryant seemed always to be 48-hours away from another suspension for something or other and that is rumored to be on the horizon for 2018 – – but the Raiders will dodge that bullet because they cut him from the roster in the final camp trimmings.  Those first round draft picks that the Raiders got in exchange for Khalil Mack will be of zero value in 2018 – – and they are going to be heavily scrutinized in the next several years.  The Raiders acquired AJ McCarron from the Bills to be the backup QB.

Moving to the AFC South, my prediction is that the division’s cumulative record will be 34-30 – making it the strongest division in the AFC.

  1. Houston Texans (11-5):  Even if there is a football god on Mount Canton who delights in torturing Bill O’Brien, that god has to take a breather this year.  Forget any draft picks that might make this team or any free agents who might contribute this season, the Texans will be significantly better simply to regain the services of Whitney Mercilus, JJ Watt and DeShaun Watson – – all of whom missed plenty of games last year.  Bill O’Brien has toiled in Houston without a competent QB who is healthy all the time and without the services of key defensive players for the last couple of years.  He – and the Texans – catch a break this year and win the division.
  2. Jax Jaguars (9-7):  The Jags will take a step back this season for a couple of reasons.  They will play a “first place schedule” this year and they are just not likely to repeat the good fortune they had to play teams with injured QBs as often as they did last year.  Unless I counted wrong, they faced 6 mediocre QBs last year [Jacoby Brisset, Blaine Gabbert, DeShone Kizer, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage and TJ Yates].  The Jags are a good team with a good defense, but I think this is a regression to the mean season for them.  Face the facts here; if Colts’ QB Andrew Luck is even able to play at 80% of his previously shown capacity, the Jags have the worst QB in the division by a mile-and-three-quarters.
  3. Tennessee Titans (9-7):  In terms of team needs, the Titans need an upgraded pass rush and they need to be sure Marcus Mariota says healthy all year.  The Titans signed two free agents from the Patriots in the off season – – Malcom Butler and Dion Lewis.  The new coach in Tennessee is Mike Vrabel.  Hmmm…  Where did he play his football?  Something to watch here is that Patriot players who go elsewhere do not always perform the way they did in New England.
  4. Indy Colts (5-11):  Yes, Andrew Luck is back, and everyone says he is throwing naturally and without pain.  Honestly, I hope that is the case now and the case going forward.  The fact is that he has not played in a real NFL game in about 20 months.  The Colts took 2 offensive linemen high in the draft signaling that they have finally realized that keeping Andrew Luck vertical is critical to their success.  We shall see how all that works out…  Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense looks as if will be a sieve once again.

The AFC North will produce a cumulative division record of 29-35 at season’s end, if my prognostications are correct.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5):  I think the Steelers win the division by default; none of the other three teams there present a credible challenge unless Ben Roethlisberger goes down and LeVeon Bell does not show up ready to play football.  This Steelers’ defense will not carry this team; it is a far cry from the Steel Curtain of old.  The Steelers drafted an “heir apparent” to Ben Roethlisberger in this draft; what they really needed was to draft an “heir apparent” to Ryan Shazier.
  2. Baltimore Ravens (8-8):  The Ravens need help at WR; they offered Dez Bryant a 3-year contract ($21M) and caught a break when he turned them down.  They added Michael Crabtree who is OK, but not someone who will keep defensive coordinators awake at night wondering what to do with him.  Pressure will mount on Joe Flacco as the season goes along because he has a sub-.500 record as a starter over the last two years and because flashy first-round pick Lamar Jackson is on the squad.  As I noted above, John Harbaugh may be coaching for his job this season.  For once, you can believe him when he says he is playing the guys that he believes give the Ravens the best chance to win.
  3. Cincy Bengals (5-11):  Here is a shocker; the Bengals will start the season with Vontaze Burfict serving a suspension.  Who woulda thunk it…?  The offensive line was miserable last year; I am not sure where the improvement will come from this year unless Cordy Glenn (acquired in a trade) and Billy Daniels (drafted early) play really well.  The Bengals are also single-threaded at QB; AJ McCarron left in free agency.  When they headed into mini-camp the guys on the depth chart behind Andy Dalton were Matt Barkley, Jeff Driskel and Logan Whiteside.  Ruminate on that as you realize that every other team in the AFC North took a QB relatively early in the 2018 NFL Draft – but the Bengals did not…
  4. Cleveland Browns (5-11):  Coming off an 0-16 record, this record would be an infinite improvement – mathematically speaking.  I know it is chic at the moment to talk about the Browns going 8-8 for this season but I just don’t see that happening.  Here is a big plus for the team.  Last year, the Browns soiled themselves so regularly that you might have thought they all ate prunes and All-Bran for breakfast daily.  Whoever played QB on any given series was a turnover waiting to happen.  With Tyrod Taylor at QB, those turnovers are going to go down significantly; he is not a great QB, but he knows how to protect the ball.

The AFC East – similar to the AFC North – is top-heavy.  I predict that the division will produce a cumulative record of 29-35 at season’s end.

  1. New England Patriots (12-4):  Ho-hum…  Another day at the office; another year making predictions about the AFC East champs.  Getting to double digit wins in a season is a lot easier when a team like the Pats can look at the schedule and pencil in at least 5 wins in their division – – and sometimes 6.  This could be one of those years.  The only real “football questions” surrounding the team involve Julian Edelman’s suspension and the deal that Tom Brady has made with Father Time.  To make things interesting, people have flogged to death the story about potential friction among Brady, Belichick and Kraft.  I do not doubt for a moment that there is some unease in that troika, but unless Brady breaks a leg and/or Belichick decides to go yak wrangling/yeti hunting for the balance of the season, the Pats will be just fine.
  2. NY Jets (7-9):  Yes, even with a rookie QB who only played in 27 college games at USC, I think the Jets will improve on their 5-11 record from last year.  I am not sure who is going to catch whatever Sam Darnold delivers in the passing game and I don’t think there are any All-Pro running backs on the roster.  Nevertheless, I was most impressed by the job that Todd Bowles did last year with a terrible roster.  By the way, safety, Jamal Adams, was a really positive addition to the Jets’ defense last year and should only get better this year.
  3. Miami Dolphins (7-9):  The good news is that Ryan Tannehill is back to play QB; the bad news is that Ryan Tannehill is the starting QB.  Fans in Miami have to hope for Tannehill to return to form and improve as the season goes on; he has missed 19 consecutive games so that is not a certainty.  The reason fans have to hope he is back permanently and competently is simple; Brock Osweiler is the back-up and we pretty much have figured out by now that he is not the answer to any question anyone might want to ask.
  4. Buffalo Bills (4-12):  I do not understand the thought processes in Buffalo.  The Bills made the playoffs – via the back door to be sure – in 2017 so they “built on that showing” by blowing up the team.  What I mean by the Bills getting into the playoffs by the back door is simple; they were outscored by 57 points in their 16 regular season games and made the playoffs as the last wildcard.  That does not happen often.  So, their starting QB – Tyrod Taylor – shuffled off out of Buffalo to Cleveland and the Bills replaced him with the triumvirate of Josh Allen, AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman.  Yowza!  Here are the cumulative stats for those three QB candidates:  5 starts, 8 TDs, 7 INTs.  Yowza – squared!!  And then the Bills traded AJ McCarron away to the Raiders for a 5th round pick and named Nathan Peterman as their Game 1 starter.  But it gets worse…  if I am not sure who will “do the catching of passes” for the Jets, I am even more in the dark when considering the Bills.  Last year, RB, Le Sean McCoy was the leading receiver on the team.  The most productive wideouts on the roster would appear to be Kelvin Benjamin (good but not a game changer) and Zay Jones (he caught 27 passes for 316 yards last year).  I will not be shocked to see a snowy Bills’ home game in December with three inebriated Bills’ fans in the stands with their shirts off and the letters W, T and F painted on their bare chests.  My answer would have to be along the line of “I don’t get it either, bro.”  I project that the Bills will be part of a coin flip to see who gets the overall #1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

The AFC playoff picture will look like this:

  • #1 seed:  Patriots
  • #2 seed: Steelers
  • #3 seed: Texans
  • #4 seed:  Chargers
  • #5 seed:  Jags
  • #6 seed:  Chiefs

And so, having taken a deep breath and refilled my coffee mug for the fourth time this AM, I shall move on to the NFC and like the progression in the AFC, I shall begin with the NFC West.  Should my predictions pan out, this division will be the weakest one in the NFC generating a cumulative record of 29-35.

  1. LA Rams (10-6):  With the recent signing of Aaron Donald to the richest contract ever given to aa defensive player, there seem to be no holes in this roster.  [Aside:  Donald’s contract enjoyed that status for less than 48 hours when it was eclipsed by Khalil Mack’s new deal in Chicago.]  About the only apparent challenge for the team will be the schedule – – not particularly easy outside the division – – and maintaining order in the locker room with some salty characters having been acquired in the off-season.  If things with Marcus Peters, Ndamukong Suh and Aqib Talib start to get out of hand at any point, maybe the coaches will need whips and chairs to keep things under control.  Another question mark for me is the acquisition of Brandin Cooks who is about to turn 25 years old and on his 3rd team already.
  2. SF Niners (8-8):  I hate to be the bearer of ill tidings to the Bay Area fans, but Jimmy Garoppolo is going to lose a game sometime this season.  Now that we are over that speed bump, RB, Jerick McKinnon was supposed to replace Carlos Hyde as the featured RB in Kyle Shanahan’s offense – but now it appears that he will miss 2018 with an ACL injury.  Linebacker, Reuben Foster will serve an early-season suspension; Foster is very important to the Niners’ defense; he is a difference maker.  Foster needs to get a grip on his life and recognize – hopefully during his suspended time – that if he does not get his off-the-field life in better control, he will not be part of the NFL for very long.  Another question mark for the defense is the level of play the Niners will get from Richard Sherman who is coming beck from an Achilles tendon injury last year and a “Grade 1 hamstring strain” suffered in this year’s Exhibition Season.
  3. Seattle Seahawks (7-9):  The turnover within the Seahawks organization is almost as complete as the turnover that occurred here in DC when President Trump took over from President Obama.  About half of the coaching staff is new; the defensive backfield is totally new – unless Earl Thomas relents and shows up to play.  The OL was awful last year and only a true Seattle fanboy would look at this group and say they are going to be world beaters this year.  Russell Wilson made some amazing plays out of nothing last year with his scrambling and throws on the run.  But magicians can only pull rabbits out of a hat if they have previously stuffed rabbits in there.  That OL has to be sure to keep Wilson in a position to keep finding those rabbits to stuff in those hats in order to …
  4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12):  If indeed this is Larry Fitzgerald’s last year in the NFL, this is a sad way for a great receiver – – and by all accounts a very good person – – to exit stage right.  I have this bleak prediction even though the Cards’ QB situation has improved from last year except Sam Bradford is a “China doll” (Bradford has been in the NFL 9 years and has made it through a complete season exactly twice.) and Josh Rosen is awfully green to be wearing Cardinal red.  Word is that the team will carry 3 QBs and include Mike Glennon in the QB discussions.  If Bradford suffers so much as a thumb blister, the Cards could be in deep water.

The NFC South will be a difficult division.  When the dust settles, I predict that the division combined record will be 35-29.

  1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4):  Falcons’ fans need not worry about where the yards and the points will come from as long as Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohammed Sanu orchestrate the passing attack and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman handle the running chores.  I am not sold on the Falcons’ DL, but the rest of the defense appears to be plenty good enough.
  2. New Orleans Saints (12-4):  There are no glaring holes on this roster either; the Saints’ defense came to life last year after being AWOL for several seasons and the Saints will also put points on the board against anyone.  The Saints gave up next year’s first round pick to move up in the draft to take an edge rusher from UT-San Antonio, Marcus Davenport.  That took a huge set of onions.  I wonder if Drew Brees – at age 39 – has made the same deal with Father Time that Tom Brady has…  Mark Ingram will serve a 4-game suspension at the start of the season.  That is not exactly the toughest part of the schedule for the Saints except for the 3rd game when the Saints go to Atlanta to play the Falcons.
  3. Carolina Panthers (6-10): The O-line was a significant problem for the Panthers last year and I don’t see that they took any significant or bold steps to improve it during the off-season.
  4. Tampa Bay Bucs (4-12):  Jameis Winston took a giant step backwards last year and will start this year with a 3-game suspension.  When he comes back, he needs to be a lot better than he was last year.  The same must be said about WR DeSean Jackson who can be a real difference maker but just blended into the woodwork last season.  The Bucs did try to shore up their D-line and it does look good on paper.  They signed veterans Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry; they drafted Vita Vea out of Washington and they have Gerald McCoy coming back from an injury.  If my record prediction is correct, the Bucs will be in the market for a new coach in January 2019.  [Aside:  The NFL is anally retentive about what players can put on the nameplate on the backs of their jerseys.  Imagine if Vita Vea wanted his full name there – – Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau “Vita” Vea]  The Bucs will be coin flipping with the Bills to see who gets the overall #1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Moving to the NFC North – or the Norris Division as Chris Berman used to call it – I think this will be the toughest division in the league this year.  I project a combined division record here of 36-28.

  1. Green Bay Packers (11-5):  The Aaron Rodgers’ contract issue is resolved, and it ought to be interesting to see how he and Jimmy Graham work to create offensive nightmares for opponents.  Davonte Adams returns also, but I wonder how much the Packers will miss Jordy Nelson.  The Packers added help in their secondary via the draft and they signed Muhammed Wilkerson from the Jets as a run stopper.  The question for the Packers’ defense is their pass rush; it was anemic last year, and it looks as if it will be the same personnel this year.
  2. Minnesota Vikings (11-5):  The team is solid on offense and on defense.  They made it to the NFC Championship Game last year and upgraded themselves at QB in the offseason signing Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum.  Moreover, they will get RB, Dalvin Cook back from a season ending injury last year and he looked like a really good player while he was playing.  Of course, there is a question as to how much the O-line will miss coach Tony Sparano who passed away in the off-season…
  3. Chicago Bears (9-7):  Their offense looks to be improved this year as Mitchell Trubisky starts his second year with plenty of experience under his belt.  Remember how Carson Wentz blossomed in his second season with a similar background last year.  The Bears added pass catchers in free agency for Trubisky to throw to – – Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson.  The Bears also have two RBs, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen who can take some pressure off Trubisky.  The Bears’ defense is not the worst in the league – – and it improved significantly with the trade last weekend to acquire Khalil Mack from the Raiders..  The defensive backfield seems to be Kyle Fuller and “three or four other guys”.
  4. Detroit Lions (6-10):  Two years ago, LeGarrette Blount got a Super Bowl ring with the Pats.  Last year, LeGarrette Blount got a Super Bowl ring with the Eagles.  This year, the Lions signed LeGarrette Blount… Is this an omen?  I don’t think so.

Finally, I come to the NFC East which will not be a fearsome division at the end of the season.  I prognosticate a cumulative record here of 31-33.

  1. Philly Eagles (10-6):  The Eagles may have sneaked up on an opponent or two last year; that will not happen again in 2018.  The two question marks for the Eagles in 2018 are pretty direct.  When will Carson Wentz be ready to play at something near the level he demonstrated in 2017?  Will Jason Peters be able to play at anything near the form that people have become accustomed to seeing from him as he returns from a major ACL and MCL knee injury last year?  If you believe in trends, the last time an NFC East champion repeated in the following season was back in 2004.  Sydney Jones was a high draft pick of the Eagles in 2017 who missed the entire season with an injury; his addition to the defensive backfield is as if the team had an extra draft pick this year to add to their Super Bowl winning roster.
  2. NY Giants (8-8):  The Giants are going to be better simply because they will have Odell Beckham, Jr. and Sterling Shepard on the field to catch the ball and they will have Saquon Barkley in the backfield to run the ball.  The reason the Giants will break even on the season is that the defense – – which struggled last year to be polite – – is going to continue to struggle this year.  Another “issue” for the Giants is that there is precious little offensive depth – particularly on the offensive line.  The Giants won 11 games in 2016; they were probably not that good that year; the Giants won 3 games in 2017; they were not that bad last year.  Given the roster available, 8 wins seems about right…
  3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8):  Whether you think Dez Bryant is a top-shelf receiver or not, the fact is that the Cowboys of 2018 are missing Bryant AND Jason Witten from their pass-catching corps.  That is lot of “chemistry” with Dak Prescott that needs replacing and as importantly, it is a lot of “pass catching” that is missing from the Cowboys’ roster.  Fortunately, Ezekiel Elliott is there to carry the ball; unfortunately, two of the Cowboys’ very good offensive linemen – Travis Fredrick and Zach Martin – will begin the season on the shelf.  In a surprising cutdown move, the Cowboys cut kicker Dan Bailey and will enter the season with a kicker who has never attempted a kick in a real NFL game.  Earl Thomas is holding out from the Seahawks and has said specifically that he wants to play for the Cowboys … a team that could use help in the secondary.  Somehow, Jerry Jones & Co. have not made that happen.  Strangely, I still see the Cowboys breaking even for the season.
  4. Washington Skins (5-11):  I will make no friends in the DC area with that prognostication; expectations are higher this year than they have been in the last 5 years in the DC/Maryland/Virginia area.  Alex Smith is here to be the QB without any drama about his contract; they already have him signed for 3 seasons.  The problem is that he cannot do it all by himself.  He needs a lot more production from the WRs on the team and somehow Jordan Reed has to find a way to play more than a half-dozen games or so.  I said above that Sam Bradford was a “China Doll”; so is Jordan Reed. They really need a ‘bell cow running back” [Hat tip to Keith Jackson] and Darius Guice was supposed to be that guy; he is out for the year with an ACL tear.  Now it will fall to Adrian Peterson at age 33 to be the workhorse at RB.  Good luck to him with that assignment.  The Skins’ defense was miserable last year and if you think it will be significantly better this year, I am anxious to hear your rationale for that.  The back end of the Skins’ schedule in 2018 is brutal.  Starting on Thanksgiving, they are AT Dallas, AT Philly, HOME vs Giants, AT Jax, AT Tennessee, HOME vs Eagles.  Ouch!

The NFC playoff picture will look like this:

  • #1 seed: Falcons
  • #2 seed: Packers
  • #3 seed: Eagles
  • #4 seed: Rams
  • #5 seed: Saints
  • #6 seed: Vikings

Please note that I have picked the LA Rams and the LA Chargers to win their respective divisions and participate in the playoffs.  I am not, however, anywhere near ready to think about a “LA/LA Super Bowl Game”.  If that is your deal, you can try to parlay the Rams and the Chargers as the two conference champions.  If you make the bet and cash it, you will make a tidy sum.  The Chargers are 10-1 to win the AFC Championship and the Rams are 6-1 to win the NFC Championship.  So, a parlay of those two events on a $100 wager should yield $7000.

I do believe that the Atlanta Falcons have an honest chance to be the first team to play in a Super Bowl game in their home stadium in February 2019…

So, just in case you decide to join Bill Belichick on his yak wrangling/yeti hunting expedition and miss the entirety of the 2018 season, you can take this definition of the future along with you and know exactly how things turned out.  Sort of…

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The Last Month Of MLB – 2018

When I was a kid, Labor Day meant that school would start later that week and that meant summer was over.  The calendar said summer wasn’t over and there was a big part of summer that wasn’t over yet – – the baseball season.  I have long since ceased to be concerned with the start of a new school year, but Labor Day remains a good point in the baseball season to see how things stack up for the homestretch.

  • The AL East:  As expected, the Yankees and the Red Sox have dominated this division from the start.  The Red Sox have a comfortable 7.5 game lead this morning.  More interestingly, if the Red Sox were to lose every game from here on out, I think they would still be the second wild card team in the AL playoffs.  The Red Sox have won 94 games so far; to miss out on the second wild card slot, the Mariners would have to finish the season 19-6.  I suspect that neither condition will be met…
  • The AL Central:  Such a yawn…  The Indians lead the Twins by 14 games as of this morning and the Twins are a less-than-impressive 10 games under .500.  On the tension/drama scale, this “race” is comparable to a prune smoothie.
  • The AL West:  The Astros lead the A’s by 2.5 games this morning and the A’s are as hot as any team in MLB.  Meanwhile, if the A’s were to “regress to the mean” sharply in September, the Mariners are still within shouting distance.  AL fans should focus their attention here…
  • The NL East:  The Atlanta Braves are on top and they look like the best team in the division – but their lead is only 4 games over a Phillies’ team that continues to win with smoke and mirrors.  The “big story” here is the dreadful showing by the Nationals for 2018
  • The NL Central:  The Cubs are on top today with the Brewers 5 games behind and the Cardinals 5.5 games behind.  The Cubs and Brewers play 6 times in September and the Cubs play the Cardinals 3 times between now and the end of the season.
  • The NL West:  In terms of a division race, this is where the excitement is.  As of this morning, the Dodgers lead the Rockies by half-a-game and lead the Diamondbacks by 1 game.  The Dodgers play the Rockies 6 times this month and they play the Diamondbacks 3 times.  Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and Rockies will face off 7 times in September and the D-Backs also have to play the Cubs and the Astros this month.  Stay tuned …

But wait; there’s more …  The wild card race in the NL is indeed wild.  For the sake of simplicity, I will assume here that the Cubs go on to win their division and that the Braves are the NL East winners.  Even eliminating those two teams from any participation in the wild card chase, here is how it looks today:

  1. Brewers  77 – 61
  2. Cardinals  76 – 61  0.5 GB
  3. Dodgers  75 – 62  1.5 GB
  4. Rockies  74 – 62  2.0 GB
  5. D-Backs  74 – 63  2.5 GB
  6. Phillies  72 – 64  4.0  GB

I know the football season is underway – at the college level – and that NFL games start this week.  Nonetheless, keep paying attention to the baseball box scores because there is the potential for some interesting fireworks there.  With the ascension of advanced analytics in baseball, however, there is one sort of “fireworks” we are not likely to see so long as the computers dictate strategy.  In 2018, managers view a stolen base attempt with the sort of disdain shown for someone trying to play Beethoven’s Ode to Joy on a kazoo.  The MLB leader in stolen bases in 2018 is Trea Turner; he has 35 steals.  Only 3 players – – Turner, Dee Gordon and Starling Marte – – have attempted to steal 40 or more times in the season.

Granted, none of these guys is Rickey Henderson on the bases but just for comparison, consider Henderson’s stats.  In 1982, he led MLB in steals with 130 and he attempted 172 steals.  Henderson played in 149 games that year, so he attempted 1.15 steals per game.  For his career, Henderson attempted 1741 steals and was successful 1406 times.  Modern day managers would be horrified with those numbers – – but Henderson scored more runs in his career than anyone else in baseball history (He crossed the plate 2295 times.) and the last time I checked, that was the object of the game.

Bob Molinaro had this item in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot last week regarding another modern baseball stratagem dictated by analytics:

“One and only: Ted Williams, who would have turned 100 on Friday, batted against infield shifts that were used just for him and still hit better than .300. Today, many of the shifts are employed to stop .200 hitters. I think the Splendid Splinter might have found that funny.”

Finally, let me close with a baseball-themed comment from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Blue Jays pitcher Aaron Sanchez says he injured his finger by getting it caught in a suitcase.

“That’s what he gets for not bringing in a closer.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Football Friday – Weekend Of 8/31/18

Football is about to begin for real.  There have been a few college games so far, but the meat of the college season starts this weekend.  The NFL pretend games have mercifully ended with kickoff for the games that matter scheduled for 6 September at 8:20 PM EDT.  With the arrival of football season, I will commence Football Friday which is not to be taken literally.  Here is what I hope to do with Football Friday:

  • Starting with the week of Sept.29, follow the progress of the Division 3 Linfield College Wildcats as they seek yet another winning football season.  They have done that every year since 1956.
  • Present some general comments related to college football and the NFL pertinent – hopefully – to some of the upcoming games on the weekend.
  • Comment on wagering opportunities for games of interest in college and NFL football.
  • Present two “Six-Packs” … six college games and six NFL games worthy of a “sporting investment”.  That is likely going to be a stretch for me since I rarely think there are 6 NFL games worth betting – – but I’ll give it a shot here.

The reason I said above not to take Football Friday literally is because I already know that life events are going to intervene to force schedule changes.  Sometimes, these offerings will be out on a Thursday; sometimes, they will not happen at all as I will be about 6 time zones away from Curmudgeon Central on a trip with my long-suffering wife.  I’ll just take them a week at a time – – the same way that football coaches always take things one game at a time.

It is fair to say that there are more than a few folks out there who believe that Urban Meyer dodged a bullet when all he got was a 3-game suspension from Ohio State.  One of the university trustees has resigned that position in protest.  If you care to read the case for why Urban Meyer should have been fired from his job, here is a link to Sally Jenkins’ column today in the Washington Post.  As is her wont, Jenkins pulls no punches in this column; here is her lead sentence:

“Read the public documents Ohio State collected in its investigation of Urban Meyer and you will never again be able to view him as anything but boneless.”

And that is the nice part of her column…

Tomorrow on FOX, the game between Oklahoma and Florida Atlantic should be entertaining – unless of course you like defense dominated games where field position dictates the action.  Lane Kiffin and Lincoln Riley are generally regarded as offensive innovators.  Kiffin has most of his offensive starters back from last year’s team that won its final 10 games of the season and scored 40 or more points in a game 8 times last year.  Riley’s offense was piloted by Baker Mayfield last year; to say it was prolific would be to soft-pedal the praise.  Mayfield is gone now – the first overall pick in the NFL Draft – and he is replaced by Kyler Murray.  Normally, that would signal caution on the part of coaches and fans, but Murray brings an interesting résumé to the field:

  • Two years ago, he began the season as the backup QB at Texas A&M but won the starting job in mid-season.
  • He transferred to Oklahoma at the end of the 2015 season and was Baker Mayfield’s backup last year.
  • He is also a baseball player who was drafted #9 overall by the Oakland A’s and he has signed a contract with the A’s that gave him a $4.5M signing bonus.  After this season, he plans to forego his senior season of eligibility for football and report to Spring Training with the A’s.

The Oklahoma/FAU game opened with a Total Line of 65.5; this morning the Total Line is 72.  People are expecting offensive fireworks here despite the fact that is the first game of the year for both teams.

There is a game this weekend that might qualify as the Game of the Week if it were on the card sometime in late October or early November.  Both Michigan and Notre Dame have lofty aspirations for the 2018 season.  They play each other tomorrow at Notre Dame; the losing side here will be very disappointed. The oddsmakers see a close game and a defensive game.  Notre Dame is favored by 1.5 points and the Total Line is a very modest 46.5.

Louisville visits Alabama tomorrow night.  In a press conference a couple of weeks ago, Louisville coach, Bobby Petrino said flat out that Louisville was going to beat Alabama in Game 1 of this season.  Tomorrow is Game 1.  The oddsmakers have a different view of this game.  As of this morning, Alabama is a 24-point favorite and if you want to take Petrino at his word and bet Louisville to win the game outright, the Money Line is at a cozy +1425.

[Aside:  If you like trends, the last time Alabama lost its opening game of the season, it was 2001.  The game took place 10 days before the hijacked aircraft took down the twin towers in NYC.]

I understand why some schools take on games where the team is overmatched to generate revenue for the athletic department.  However, I think that New Mexico State has taken that tactic and raised it to an art form.  The Aggies are one of the Independents in Division 1-A football after they were invited to leave the Sun Belt Conference at the end of last year.  Filling a schedule for an Independent school is not a trivial undertaking – unless the school is Notre Dame – but here is what New Mexico State did for this season:

  • Last Saturday, August 25th, the Aggies played Wyoming and lost 29-7.  Looking at the stats for the game, it was probably not that close – but I did not see the game, so I cannot be certain of that.
  • Last night, August 30th, the Aggies traveled about 1500 miles to play Minnesota in the Twin Cities.  Not surprisingly, they got hammered 48-10.

It is one thing to take on bigger opponents for a payday and another to schedule your team to play 2 games in 5 days in August with 1500 miles of one-way travel involved…

For the NFL, this is “Cutdown Weekend”; lots of roster movement and player movement will happen in the next 24-36 hours as teams must be down to the 53-man roster by 4:00PM EDT tomorrow.  There were trades this week involving backup QBs in advance of the free-agent scrum that will happen as soon as the cuts are announced.

  • The Packers sent backup QB, Brent Hundley to the Seahawks where he will carry a clipboard for Russell Wilson instead of Aaron Rodgers.  Hundley showed last season that he might someday become a journeyman QB who will not throw up on his shoes.  The scary thing about this trade is that the Packers chose to keep DeShone Kizer over Hundley.  Hundley was hugely unimpressive, but Kizer looked even worse.
  • The Jets sent Teddy Bridgewater to the Saints.  With Sam Darnold named as the starter for the Jets and with Josh McCown uninjured in the exhibition season, there was no need for the Jets to keep Bridgewater and by trading him – vice releasing him tomorrow – they scored a 3rd round draft pick next year.  The Jets need draft picks; that roster is anything but “loaded”.  The Saints’ decision here tells me that the braintrust in New Orleans thinks they have a shot to go deep in the playoffs this year and are willing to spend a draft pick to buy some insurance.

From reading various “camp reports”, there are several players who could be free agents as of tomorrow and who ought to be able to find homes somewhere in the NFL.  Here are five of them:

  1. Ameer Abdullah – RB:  He came to the Lions in the second round of the 2015 draft.  He has been with the Lions for 3 seasons and has never rushed for 100 yards in a game.  [Aside:  The last Lion to rush for 100 yards in a game was Reggie Bush and he did that in 2013.]  The team signed LeGarrette Blount in the off-season to be the “big back” and they drafted Kerryon Johnson too.
  2. Josh Dobbs – QB:  The Steelers are not likely to keep 4 QBs on the roster.  Ben Roethlisberger is the starter and the team just drafted Mason Rudolph 4 months ago.  The other two QBs on the roster are Dobbs and Landry Jones.  I doubt that teams would want to give up anything to get Jones, but Dobbs might attract offers because he is only 23 years old.  If Dobbs is cut, I suspect he finds a job somewhere in the league.
  3. Mike Gillislee – RB:  The Pats signed him to be their “big back” last year after LeGarrette Blount signed with the Eagles.  Somehow, Gillislee worked his way lower and lower on the Pats’ totem pole to the point that he was not even dressed for about a half-dozen games at the end of the season.  He is only 27 years old, so he should find a home somewhere.
  4. Robert Griffin III – QB:  The question for the Ravens is simple.  Do they carry 3 QBs or only 2?  Joe Flacco is the starter; Lamar Jackson is a first-round pick from this year’s draft for whom the Ravens traded up to get.  They are making the team.  RG3 played well in the exhibition games so maybe his career gets extended somewhere?
  5. Paxton Lynch – QB:  The Broncos only have 3 QBs on the roster and Lynch appears to be the odd-man out.  While his performances to date have been tepid-at-best, he is only 24 years old and he fits the mold of a “developmental asset” that many teams use for their backup QBs.

College Football Games of Interest: 

(Friday Nite) San Diego St. at Stanford – 13.5 (48.5):  This is a revenge game for Stanford; last year they visited San Diego St. and lost 20-17.  The Aztecs had the nation’s leading rusher last year in Rashaad Penny; he is gone.  The Cardinal still have Bryce Love carrying the football for them.  I think the Aztecs are in for a long evening of football…

Ole Miss at Texas Tech – 3 (67):  Ole Miss is still on probation and cannot go to a bowl game this year; they are “playing for pride” in Oxford, MS this year.  Texas Tech has been disappointing the last several seasons and more than a few commentators think that Kliff Kingsbury could be out of a job without significant improvement this year.  The game could be interesting…

Texas – 13.5 at Maryland (53):  This is a revenge game for Texas; they lost in Austin last year to Maryland 51-41.  The Maryland program is in turmoil with the coach suspended and an investigation ongoing into an alleged “toxic culture” in the football program that may have played a part in the death of a young athlete during a practice.

Army at Duke – 13.5 (46):  Army won 10 games last year; this is a game of interest specifically to see if they are on track to do that again.

 

 College Football Six-Pack:

  • [Make no mistake, these picks do not derive on the basis of any inside information or hours of research.  No one should risk any real money on any of these picks solely on the fact that they are here.  Anyone who did that would also think that “fast food” is what you get when you run over a deer at 75 mph.]

West Virginia – 9 at Tennessee (63):  Tennessee cleaned house after last season and then went through the most bizarre coaching search ever leading to student protests over the announced hire leading to the withdrawal of the offer to hire.  The new coach is Jeremy Pruitt and he comes from the Nick Saban coaching tree; that is the good news.  The bad news is that Tennessee does not have the same level of talent that Alabama does.  Meanwhile, West Virginia is led by QB, Will Grier who is an early contender for the Heisman Trophy and who averaged 300+ yards per game passing last year.  I like West Virginia to win and cover.

Washington vs. Auburn – 2.5 (48) [Game is in Atlanta]:  If the Michigan/Notre Dame game is not the best game of the week, then this one surely is.  The Huskies look to be the class of the PAC-12; they have experienced leaders on offense and a very good defense.  Auburn is a top-shelf SEC school and will win plenty of games this year.  Interestingly, Auburn played 2 games in Atlanta last year and lost both of them.  I like Washington plus the points here.

Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma – 21 (72):  I mentioned this game above.   Call this a “Chris Christie Line” – – it looks fat to me.  I’ll take FAU plus the points.

(Monday Nite) VA Tech at Florida State – 7.5 (54.5):  Florida State has a new coaching staff and a new system while VA Tech brings one of the top-rated defenses to the field.  I like Tech plus the points here. 

Miami – 3 at LSU (46.5) [Game is in Arlington, TX]:  If this game were in Baton Rouge as the opening game of the season, I would jump on LSU immediately.  However, on a neutral field, I like the Miami defense to throttle the typically bland LSU offense.  I’ll take Miami and lay the points. 

Appalachian St. at Penn St. – 24 (54):  Saquon Barkley is not in Happy Valley anymore.  I do not expect Penn State to lose this game, but I do think that is a boatload of points to give to one of the better teams outside of the Power 5 Conferences.  I’ll take App St and the points.

Finally, Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times was clearly looking ahead into the college football season with this comment:

“The Cactus Bowl has been rebranded the Cheez-its Bowl.

“You’ve got to like Wisconsin’s chances of getting the first invite.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Who Will Lose 100 Games This Year?

At the end of April, six teams in MLB were on track to lose 100 games this year.  At the end of June, that list had narrowed to three teams.  By the end of July, the list of 100-game losers was back up to four teams.  And so, we are now at the end of August …

  • The Orioles project to lose 114 games this year.  They have the worst record so far in MLB and they are in the same division with the Red Sox who have the best record in MLB.  As of this morning the Orioles are 52 games out of first place in the AL East.
  • The Royals project to lose 111 games this year.

That’s it.  That’s the list – – with an asterisk…

  • The Padres project to lose 99 games this year.  By the end of September – when all the precincts have reported in so to speak – the Padres might sink into that abysmal category.

As I looked at the standings for the various teams in order to do the calculations cited above, I noticed something interesting.  I said above that the Red Sox had the best record in MLB and they have a comfortable lead over the Yankees who have the second-best record in MLB.  Moreover, the Red Sox winning percentage in road games this year is .647 and that is better than the overall record for every other team in MLB.  In fact, as of this morning, only the Yankees home record is better than the Red Sox road record.

Bob Molinaro lamented last week in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Stat stuff: The Red Sox had their 37th win by the end of May. The Orioles won their 37th last week.”

Somewhere in the cosmos, Earl Weaver weeps…

The FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, was here in the US earlier this week and presented his rosy vision for soccer in the US.  He sees the 8-year period between now and 2026 when the World Cup will come to North America as a vehicle to elevate soccer in the US to a much higher plane of existence.  Yes, I know; the World Cup has been here before and had little to no lasting impact on soccer in the US.  The odds are that will happen again once the 2026 tournament is in the rear-view mirror; I am not suggesting that the US is going to be one of the “futbol blue-bloods” because of the 2026 tournament.

However, if the folks who oversee/promote soccer in the US do some positive things during these 8 years of anticipation and preparation for the World Cup, it could raise interest in soccer and it might produce a more competitive US Men’s National Team for that tournament and ones going forward.  The opportunity is there; the problem is that the opportunity has been there before, and the US soccer gurus have done nothing to exploit those opportunities.  If soccer is to become a big deal in the US and thereby elevate the USMNT’s stature/ranking in the world, here are a few of the things that need to happen.  They cannot happen overnight; but at some point, they have to happen.  Is this the springboard to start the process to make them happen?

  • The US does not have equivalent “soccer academies” to the ones abroad.  Young players in the US do not learn skills to the extent that their foreign counterparts do; young players in the US spend lots of time traveling around to play games; the shortage of time spent on fundamentals and game instincts shows when the US plays one of the “futbol blue-bloods”.
  • Somehow there needs to be a relegation/promotion system for MLS and soccer leagues/associations below MLS in the country.
  • College soccer needs to throw off the trappings of “conferences” that were constructed to benefit football and the top soccer programs in the country need to coalesce into some sort of association of their own.

Just a note about the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament.  It will be the first one that has 48 teams in the groups instead of the current 32 teams.  That means there will be a total of 80 games in the tournament; 60 will be played in the US and 10 will be played in Canada and 10 in Mexico.

FIFA recently took another action that was noteworthy.  It suspended the president of the Palestinian Football Association for 12 months and fined him approximately $20K for violating Article 53 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code.  That article deals with individuals who might “incite hatred and violence”.

Here is what happened:

  • The Argentinian National Team was scheduled to play the Israeli National Team in a “friendly” in early June.  The game was to be in Jerusalem.
  • The president of the Palestinian Football Association called on people to “target the Argentinian Football Association” (whatever that means) and for them to burn jerseys and pictures of Argentinian star, Lionel Messi.
  • Evidently, those exhortations must have gained some traction because the “friendly” was canceled.
  • FIFA determined that it was those remarks that precipitated the hatred and violence that caused the match to be canceled.  Hence a 12-month banishment from anything associated with a futbol match other than his buying a ticket and sitting in the stands with the rest of the spectators.

When I read about this, I was surprised because:

  • I was totally unaware that there was anything like a Palestinian Football Association – – let alone that it had a president.

Finally, here is an observation from Dwight Perry in the Seattle Times:

“Giants first baseman Brandon Belt named his newborn son August, in honor of his college coach at Texas, the late Augie Garrido.

“Just be thankful the Longhorns hired Garrido instead of Oil Can Boyd.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

More Sports Media? Again?

Yesterday, I spent a little over a thousand words chastising the widely available sports media – The WASM – for blowing stories out of proportion.  Naturally, one might expect that I would be avoiding any more mention of sports media for a while.  After all, if their behavior(s) annoy me, it would be logical for me to focus attention elsewhere.

Well, here in Curmudgeon Central, logic is not a permanent resident.  And so, I want to look at sports media events again today – but from a different angle.

Programming changes are coming to ESPN.  Probably the most dramatic change will be to Get Up! – the new sports roundtable discussion vehicle that ESPN designed around Mike Greenburg.  The show is currently a 3-hour snooze-fest which is hugely ironic given its name; the show is going to be cut to 2 hours.  In addition, Michelle Beadle will be leaving the show in a maelstrom of contrived controversy and her replacement has not been identified.  Perhaps the suits at ESPN know who they will put in Beadle’s chair but think that keeping an air or mystery around the announcement will generate interest in the show.  [Aside:  If that is indeed their thinking the show is doomed because there are more fundamental flaws in the concept.]

If I were quizzed by the suits at ESPN about my perception of the intent of the program they created, I would be at a loss.  It does not fit with any of the other ESPN programming models and yet its variance from those other models does not identify it.  Consider:

  • SportsCenter programming:  This is “sports news round-up” programming.
  • Inside the NFL/The Jump programming:  This is “deep dive into a single sport” programming.
  • First Take/Around the Horn programming:  This is “contrived controversy” programming.

Get Up! Is nothing like any of those programs and yet it does not stake out a path or a territory for itself.  I began to wonder if the folks who “designed” the program conceptually had anything in mind for the program direction other than to throw three interesting folks on a set just to see what happened.

I am not a regular viewer of Get Up! But I have made it a point to tune in aperiodically to see how the show has evolved.  The opening days of the show were painful to watch, and I expected time to provide a measure of pace and purpose to the discussions there.  For the most part, I was wrong in that expectation.  I have watched enough of the program now that it has been on the air for about 3 or 4 months to say that I just do not like it.  The funny thing is that I do like all three of the hosts of the program individually.

  • Mike Greenburg is solid.  He is a sports fan in his core and that comes across in his TV persona.
  • Michelle Beadle has energy and very pointed opinions that she presents in unequivocal terms.
  • Jalen Rose has a great sense of humor.

For some reason, the three of them together add up to a dish that just does not work.  It would be like making an ice cream sundae using vanilla ice cream, tuna fish and mustard.  All three ingredients are very good but in combination it just does not work.

In another ESPN move, the good folks in Bristol seek to achieve a major warp in the space-time continuum.  According to reports, they are going to move High Noon to 4:00 PM ET.  While that may not be easily done with an atomic clock, it is very easy with the High Noon program featuring Bomani Jones and Pablo S. Torre.  Now, there is a relatively new ESPN program that works.  I think it is too long in its current incarnation going from 12:00 to 1:00 ET, but that will be remedied with the time change because it will then be a 30-minute show.

The aura that comes across on High Noon – ESPN is going to change that name, right? – is that these are two friends who are sitting around and talking about sports topics that both of them enjoy.  This is the same vibe that emanates from Pardon the Interruption where – in fact – Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon are indeed good friends off camera.  If Jones and Torre are not friends off the air, they are damned good actors on the air!

Just as I gave up on Get Up!, I have been drawn to High Noon even though noontime is not normally TV viewing time here in Curmudgeon Central.  With the time change, I will probably watch more of it.

Switching gears – and networks – I read a report in the NY Post that NBC and Bob Costas may part company.  Say what?  Those two entities have been conjoined twins for as long as I can remember.  In “sports media world” folks jump around from place to place and network to network but there are a few folks who identify with a singular media outlet;

  • Howard Cosell and ABC Sports
  • Chris Berman and ESPN
  • Jim Nantz and CBS Sports

Put Bob Costas on that list with NBC Sports and you will understand why I was very surprised by the NY Post reporting.  I guess I should not have been as surprised as I was after NBC decided to make Mike Tirico the studio honcho for the Olympics in place of Costas.  Meaning no disrespect to Mike Tirico who is a very competent member of The WASM, but he is not Bob Costas.  I will not pretend to know any of the backstory(ies) here, but I have to believe that there have been backstage incidents in the past year or so that have led to all of this.

Let me go on a flight of fancy here for a moment.  Bob Costas’ first love in sports is baseball; he is an articulate analyst of the game.  I can say the same thing about Keith Olbermann.  Imagine if the two of them came to your town in one of the large auditorium venues to sit down for about 3 hours to talk baseball with one another – – and with the audience.  I would pay money to be in that audience.  And they could take the show on the road and reprise the concept in different cities say once a quarter.  That would give them lots of fresh material to discuss and it would keep the idea fresh enough to continue to draw audiences in cities that are deeply into baseball.

Obviously, I think this is a great idea, so I will now invoke the words of Captain Jean-Luc Picard:

“Make it so.”

Finally, consider this observation from Bob Molinaro in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot relative to TV media:

“Tuning out: TV viewership of the MTV Video Music Awards dropped off sharply for the second year in a row. What happened? Did Madonna take a knee?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The WASM

I am in search of a label this morning and one is not coming to me.  I hesitate to refer to “mainstream sports media” because of the current negative connotation of “mainstream” when it comes to “media”.  At the same time, I do not want to trivialize by using the label “everyday sports media”.  So, let me settle for an admittedly imperfect label, “Widely Available Sports Media”, or The WASM – – rhymes with possum.

I really wish that The WASM would forego inflating stories beyond their worth.  There are plenty of stories to tell regarding sports and the role that sports – and athletes – play in society without taking a mouse turd and turning it into a mountain range.  That sort of “artificial inflation” was totally unnecessary when The WASM exposed Dr. Larry Nasser for what he is or when they reported on the raucous city-wide celebrations in the aftermath of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl last February.  There are tons of other examples I could cite where the stories told by The WASM had meat on the bones, not air in a balloon.  There are three “inflated stories” making the rounds about now and none of them matter.

The first story involves the “ambush-like” interview question tossed at Tiger Woods after he finished his final round at last week’s PGA tournament.  Someone wanted to know what Woods thought of President Trump.  Notwithstanding the fact that it is none of anyone’s business what anyone else’s political views are unless those political views are openly stated by the party of the first part, there were follow-up questions after Woods politely – and artfully – deflected the original question.

The media in general like to say when they break a story that is unflattering to the subject of the story that “the public has a right to know” whatever was in the story that was unflattering.  More often than not, the media is correct in that assertion.  In this case, they would be horribly wrong.

  • Tiger Woods is free to express his political views on any topic or any person in the political cosmos at any time and in any form that he so chooses.
  • Tiger Woods is ALSO free to keep those opinions to himself; and since he is not an elected official, he is entitled to the same right of privacy that is accorded to the reporters who asked those questions.

That is the generic complaint that I have with the story as it has been blown out of proportion but there are specifics that make it worse.  Two of the follow-up questions dealt with Woods’ thoughts on people – “especially people of color, immigrants” – being threatened by President Trump’s policies and another asked him about the state of race relations in the US today.  While there is nothing wrong with either question per se it is incredibly presumptuous of the questioner to seek an answer from a golfer who just finished a tournament.  And, may I point out, that the questioner engaged in just a tad of racial profiling by posing the question to the “Cablinasian golfer” and none of the other golfers who participated in the tournament.

The events leading to this story should never have happened.  Once they did happen, they should not have been given time and attention.  If The WASM has nothing better to report, then maybe shrinking sports sections in newspapers and cutbacks in TV network staffs are appropriate.The second inflated story has to do with the officials at the French Open deciding that Serena Williams will not be able to wear her “cat suit” in the French Open next year; they have changed their dress code.

In this case, The WASM has not only made a mouse turd into a mountain range, they have sought to pole vault over that mouse turd.  Why is this a non-story?

  • First of all, it applies to every player in the French Open next year not just to Serena Williams.
  • Serena Williams says she is fine with the new rule.  She wore the suit designed to protect her from blood clots that she experienced after her pregnancy and she says she no longer needs the suit.  She also said that she was confident that if she needed the suit again in the future, the French Open folks would consider a medical exemption.
  • Wimbledon has a dress code that would preclude Williams’ cat suit too.
  • The Australian Open has a dress code that would preclude Williams’ cat suit too.

The third inflated story is about NBC Sports using something they call “The Green Zone” for the Sunday Night Football telecasts.  If you have not seen “The Green Zone” yet, here is the deal:

  • On third downs, NBC will visually emphasize the line to gain for a first down by making the grass between the line of scrimmage and the line to gain a darker/more vivid shade of green.
  • That’s it folks; that is what the whole “discussion” is about…

I happen to believe that this is totally unnecessary since we have now – and have had for at least a decade – the infamous “yellow line” that unofficially marks the line to gain for a first down.  Simultaneously, I also believe that adding The Green Zone to the area of the field that leads up to the infamous yellow line is abjectly harmless.

  • It is neither an addition to the telecast nor is it a negative to the broadcast.
  • Being neither positive nor negative, it is a ZERO – a smidgen of mathematical deduction this morning.
  • The discussion/argument here is over ZERO which is NOTHING.

Once again, The WASM needs to find//uncover things that are more relevant that NOTHING to report on/create controversy over.

OK, I’ll go and up the dosage on my meds now…

Finally, let me close with a comment from Greg Cote of the Miami Herald.  It sounds as if he and I agree on the story about Serena Williams’ cat suit:

“The French Open instituted a new dress code pretty much specifically designed to prevent Serena Williams from again wearing her skin-tight “cat suit.” Some saw it as an affront to women’s rights. Um, let’s save our outrage for causes that are actually important, shall we?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Time Marches On …

As the furor over the Urban Meyer Saga comes down from the boil to a mere simmer, and as the powers that be at Maryland await the results of a Blue-Ribbon Commission investigation of the “toxic culture” that exists in the football program there, it is still possible to find voices of sanity in the room.  Jerry Brewer wrote a column in the Washington Post over the weekend about a former basketball coach, John Oldham, who taught a course in Basketball Coaching at W. Kentucky.  Brewer took that course to quell a case of “senioritis” and came away with some life lessons.  Here is a key paragraph from that column:

“No matter the frequency of scandal, no matter the cautionary tales of misplaced perspective and selective leadership that have ruined legacies of former coaching giants such as Joe Paterno and Rick Pitino, no matter how often history ties absolute authority to treachery, colleges continue to make gods out of men whose only mandate is to win. And as long as the mercenary has power without effective oversight, he will go too far eventually and bring shame to the institution he intends to uplift.”

Here is a link to Jerry Brewer’s column.  I think you should read it in its entirety.

By the way, please take a moment and circle November 17, 2018 on your calendars.  That is the day when Ohio State and Maryland will play football against one another in College Park, MD – – home of the alleged “toxic culture”.  This may come to be known as college football’s “date which will live in infamy” – with apologies to FDR.

[Aside:  If the Maryland allegations are found to be true – or even “sorta true” – would I be wrong to wish that both teams lose this game?]

I mentioned above that Maryland has appointed a Blue-Ribbon Commission to look into the happenings in its football program and its athletic department.  The Board of Regents just added a couple of recognizable names to the Commission to give it more cachet; what it needs is more ability to compel people to speak the truth to them and then enough backbone to call it like they see it.  If you get the feeling that I am not optimistic that there will be monumental findings and changes that come from the Blue-Ribbon Commission, you would be absolutely on point.

Switching gears …  Dwight Perry had a summary of a sporting event in his Sideline Chatter column last weekend in the Seattle Times that sent me to Google to find out what it was.  Here is his comment:

“Talk about running low on fuel.

“Corey Bellemore, winner of this year’s Beer Mile World Classic in Vancouver, B.C., was disqualified when race officials ruled he didn’t consume enough beer during the race’s four mandatory brew stops.

“It’s believed to be the first time in sports history in which a runner was stripped of his title for failing to fail a drug test.”

What I learned is that there is indeed a sport/competition known as Beer Mile.  The rules are not complex:

  • Runners run a mile separated into four quarters.  Each runner consumes a 12-oz can or bottle of beer before each lap is begun.  At the finish, the runner with the fastest time for running and chugging is the winner.
  • Here is a direct quote from the Beer Mile Rules: “Competitors who vomit before they finish the race must complete one penalty lap at the end of the race (immediately after completion of their 4th lap.)

I think the folks who are the overseers of Beer Mile need to consult with the grand poohbahs who run Philadelphia’s Wing Bowl.  In the Wing Bowl, there is a very different way they deal with vomiting:

  • You heave; you leave.

Todd Gurley said last week that it is “everyone’s dream” not to have to play in the NFL exhibition games.   More and more teams are giving more and more top-shelf players access to that dream.  Lots of players are now sitting out those meaningless exercises.  I want to be clear on one thing here:

  • The continued existence of NFL pre-season games is completely economic.  Teams can – and do – charge season ticket holders regular season prices for two of those meaningless games.  For teams that sell 50,000 season tickets at an average price of $75 a ticket, well, you do the math.

The continued existence of NFL pre-season games has little to nothing to do with getting players in football shape or giving coaches a necessary yardstick by which they decide on their final rosters for the regular season.  Those arguments are offered up as a smoke-screen to hide the purely monetary basis of the meaningless pre-season games.  Consider college football for a moment.  Those teams manage to find a way to get to the opening game of the regular season without any pre-season contests.  Coaches figure out who will play and who will sit, and the opening day games are not a gigantic exhibition of penalties, fumbles and misrun plays.  College players figure out how to play football on Day One without 4 stupid rehearsals; you mean to tell me that pro players – – who are the cream of the crop from college players – – suddenly forgot how to get ready for Came One?

Finally, here is a Tweet from humor writer Brad Dickson in Omaha, NE:

“Man, it’s already hot and humid. When I was outside this morning I was sweating like Urban Meyer being strapped into a lie detector.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Shades Of Lying…

I was reading an Internet message board yesterday and a “debate” was raging about the severity – or lack thereof – regarding the punishment meted out to Urban Meyer.  That sort of debate is futile and feckless; no amount of Internet gnashing of teeth is going to change it.  However, there was an interesting eddy current in that “debate” wherein proponents of the punishment as it stands and opponents squared off.

  • A key element of this “eddy current” had to do with the less-than-truthful statements Urban Meyer made to the folks at Big 10 media day and then to investigators.
  • Meyer’s proponents argued that he did not “deliberately lie” in these situations.

Since I do not have a dog in that fight – and I recognize that none of my spleen-venting would change even an iota of the outcome there – I read the arguments and counter-arguments for what they were and took them to be what the writer intended.  And then I asked myself this question:

  • Is there really a difference between “lying” and “deliberately lying”?
  • Can one lie about something “accidentally” or is an “accidental lie” just giving the wrong answer to a question or making an incorrect statement?

Brad Dickson, formerly with the Omaha World-Herald had this Tweet regarding the bottom line for the Urban Meyer Saga:

“Breaking news: Urban Meyer has been suspended for almost as long as the average booth review takes.”

Enough of that stuff for the day; the weekend is coming; no one needs to encumber one’s cerebral cortex with that kind of nonsense.  So, let me turn now to something far sillier.  Last night, there was a headline on an article at CBSSports.com that read:

  • Terrell Owens is still ripped and can outsprint P.K. Subban

For those who are not of a hockey persuasion, P.K. Subban is a very good NHL player.  And that headline is about content-free as this one might be if any headline writer were dumb enough to write it:

  • 70-year old Bobby Orr can still skate backward faster than Terrell Owens

[Aside: And I’ll bet 60-year old Jerry Bailey can ride a thoroughbred better than T.O. too…]

The Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson winner-take-all match play contest will happen on Thanksgiving weekend.   I have already stated that I have no interest in watching two fading stars go at one another to see which of them is the “least-worst” on a given day and that the “winner take all aspect” of this match would be a lot more meaningful if each of them were putting up the millions of dollars in the kitty out of their own funds.  It should not be news to anyone that the funding for this event will not be as I just described…

There is something more going on here.  This is going to be a pay-per-view event.  So, the golf-goofs who want to see this nonsense are going to have to fork over their own money to watch it.  And I doubt that any of them are going to give this consideration as they decide if they are going to pay whatever the cost of the pay-per-view is:

  • TNT is putting up $9M plus production costs for this event.  If TNT makes money on this, they will be motivated to find other “golf properties” to put out there as pay-per-view events.
  • Once they exhaust all the match-play pairings that even the golf-goofs would care about, why not put the US Open on TV in pay-per-view mode?
  • Don’t tell me this can’t happen.  That is exactly what happened with boxing.  First, only heavyweight championship bouts were pay-per-view; then Marvin Hagler, Tommy Hearns, Sugar Ray Leonard and Roberto Duran came along…

The folks who pay to watch this are playing with fire…

The NCAA has ditched the RPI – the Rating Percentage Index – as a tool for deciding which college basketball teams get seeded into March Madness.  The RPI was created about 40 years ago and it has drawn fire from many quadrants over the years; now it is history. The NCAA has replaced it with NET – the NCAA Evaluation Tool.  Components of the NET scoring include:

  • Game results (straight up wins and losses)
  • Game location
  • Strength of schedule
  • Quality of both wins and losses
  • Net offensive and defensive efficiency – – AND – –
  • Scoring margin.

Hold on there, Hoss…  Is the NCAA going to incentivize teams to run up the score in cupcake games to enhance their NET scoring?  Fortunately, when you look a tad closer to the details here, scoring margin will count – – up to score differentials of 10 points.  So, it will not matter if One-And-Done University beats Disco Tech by 45 points or 55 points in a December game.  In the end, the NCAA Selection Committee will also take these factors into account when making the final decisions on inclusion or exclusion from March Madness;

  • Player/coach availability – – Did the most dominant player break an ankle a week before the regular season ended?
  • Teams’ road records – – Remember, March Madness games are supposedly not home games…
  • Head-to-head results when available and common opponent results when available.
  • Conference records

All of this sounds like a major step up in terms of the quality of the selections that will emanate from the Selection Committee next March.  Call me a skeptic, but even if all of this data were presented openly and the full deliberations of the Committee were broadcast in real time, there will still be screams on the Monday after Selection Sunday over “who got snubbed”.

Finally, Brad Rock has this comment in the Deseret News recently about former college basketball hero, Jimmer Fredette – now plying his trade in the Chinese Basketball Association:

“Jimmermaniacs are demanding Fredette get another shot at the NBA, despite the fact he’s 29.

“But don’t plan on it. Chinese officials are threatening a 25 percent tariff if he returns to the United States.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The End Of The Urban Meyer Saga?

Obviously, the sports “issue of the moment” is the resolution of the Urban Meyer Saga at Ohio State.  Meyer will not lose his job as many suggested he would; Ohio State will suspend him for 3 games.  While this decision and action should bring closure to the issue, I suspect it will not.  There are folks who have looked at the summary report presented to the powers that be at THE Ohio State University and wonder two things:

  1. Since the report says that Urban Meyer issued reprimands and warnings [Note the plural nouns there.] to Zach Smith for a laundry list of improper and potentially illegal actions, how did Coach Meyer get off so lightly?
  2. If this sort of smarmy behavior can go on inside the Athletic Department for years without coming to light, what sort of oversight exists there to assure that behaviors in that department rise to the level of “human”?

The answer to the first question is either cynical or realistic – – depending on how intensely you want to see Urban Meyer fired for all of this.  He got off “so easy” because he is an elite football coach who wins lots of games and brings lots of money into THE Ohio State University.  No one will convince me that if Urban Meyer had a sub-.500 record over the past 3 seasons there, he would still be on the job today.

The answer to the second question is saddening.  There is no adult supervision within the Athletic Department if you include in the definition of “adult supervision” the recognition of common decent behavior that must be exhibited by anyone who is in the Athletic Department and wishes to remain in the Athletic Department.

Even the 3-game suspension is nuanced.  Coach Meyer cannot be with the team at all until after the first game – – against Oregon St.  Then, he can “coach ‘em up” during the weeks leading up to Games 2 and 3 – – Rutgers and TCU – – but cannot be on the sidelines on Saturday afternoon.  Let’s just say it is something short of a 3-week banishment from the team.

Let me go on the record here with a statement:

  • Lest anyone think that I am picking on THE Ohio State University here, I am not.  I would not be surprised to learn that similar sub-human behaviors exist in other Athletic Departments and that they have gone unchecked and been hidden away in those other Athletic Departments.

Oh, and one final question comes to my mind today:

  • Given what the pooh-bahs at THE Ohio State University know now, why did they not also announce that they have turned all of their findings over to the gendarmes so that there can be a criminal investigation of their findings?  Without that action, how have they discharged their obligations?

Enough of that nonsense; let me get down to some REAL nonsense.  Richie Incognito is back in the news; and not surprisingly, there is fundamental weirdness to the story.  Just for giggles, let me hit a few of the high notes of previous instances where Richie Incognito has been in the headlines:

  • Back in college, Incognito demonstrated “anger management issues” including fights with teammates and spitting on opponents.
  • He was identified by ESPN as a major actor in the bullying of teammate Jonathan Martin with the Dolphins.  Even after an NFL-sponsored investigation into that matter, there are still plenty of loose ends there.
  • Several months ago, Incognito was involved in an incident at a health club in Florida where he allegedly threw a dumbbell at someone in the gym.  Police categorized him as being in an “altered paranoid state” and held him on an “involuntary psychiatric hold”.

This week, Richie Incognito was arrested yet again.  This time he was arrested at a funeral home in Arizona where his recently deceased father was about to be cremated.  In the midst of an altercation, he allegedly threatened people at the funeral home and told them he had a truck full of guns outside.  Truth be told, he did have a bunch of guns in his truck and they were legally his and he had permits to carry them.  There was not a “weapons offense” involved here, but I think it is fair to say that mortuaries are not normally places where those sorts of behaviors manifest themselves.  Here is a link to the ESPN story of the most recent arrest; trust me, I have only hit the highlights here; there was a lot more “weirdness on display”.

Yesterday, I ran across an article that said the Washington Nationals’ hugely disappointing season this year was a “vindication for Dusty Baker”.  Look, I get it; the baseball media loves Dusty Baker and I have no reason to believe that he is any kind of “bad guy”.  But the fact that the Nats have so hugely underachieved in 2018 does not “vindicate” Baker for the Nats’ playoff collapses in previous years.

Since 2011, the Nationals have had 4 managers – Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, Dusty Baker and Dave Martinez.  Those four managers have all had top shelf rosters with the likes of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Gio Gonzales, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner – – just off the top of my head.  None of those four managers could win a playoff series with those players.  The fact that the current manager – Dave Martinez – is doing worse in the regular season than others did before him does not “vindicate him”.  It does lead one to suspect that there may be organizational problems with the Nats that go beyond the roster – – but even if that were proven conclusively that would not “vindicate Dusty Baker”.

Finally, here is a comment on baseball and hygiene from Brad Rock in the Deseret News:

“Two Major League pitchers have reportedly come down with hand, foot and mouth disease.

“You just knew all that tugging and scratching in baseball was eventually going to turn into something bad.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Justice Is Served

Today is “Justice Day” here in Curmudgeon Central.  This is a day where bad behavior and poor judgement get what they deserve, and that situation exists in – of all places – the WNBA Playoffs.  [Yes, I know; I had to look it up too.  The WNBA regular season ended.]  The rendition of justice there is this:

  • The Las Vegas Aces – – known in these parts as the Las Vegas Asses – – missed the playoffs by a single game.  Recall that the players chose to pull a no-show for a game here in DC because they had a terrible 24-hour travel experience to get here for the game.  They arrived about 5 hours before game time but chose to “sleep in” instead of playing that night.  The league office declared the game a forfeit – after several days of deliberation.  [Duh!]

Maybe the Asses would have lost that game to the Washington Mystics – – but just maybe they could have won that game; and in that circumstance, they would have earned a “play-in game” for the WNBA Playoffs.  The epitaph for the Las Vegas Asses’ 2018 season ought to be one of Vince Lombardi’s famous quotes:

“Winners never quit, and quitters never win.”

ESPN will have a totally reconstructed 3-man announcing team for Monday Night Football this year.  Joe Tessitore takes over the play-by-play duties from Sean McDonough.  While these two guys have very different styles when it comes to calling a game, I think both of them are solid pros.  Tessitore will sometimes take his call a bit over the top but substituting one for the other here is neither a great leap forward nor a step backward.  Call this move a lateral arabesque…

The departure of Jon Gruden from the ESPN airwaves brought smiles and serenity into Curmudgeon Central.  My first reaction was that the suits at ESPN had to take a step up the announcing ladder when naming his replacement and that I would probably never have to hit the mute button while watching MNF again.  As we move toward the season – and with a VERY small sample size to go on – I think the ESPN suits have succeeded here.

Jason Witten will be one of the game analysts.  Like his pal and former teammate, Tony Romo, Witten will make the jump from NFL player to high level network analyst with no stops in between.  That model worked very well for Tony Romo at CBS last season; I heard Witten in his first game live on the air and he was good enough for a “debut performance”.  [Aside:  He needed this Exhibition Game in the booth far more than he needed any Exhibition Game on the field in prior years.]

The “third man in the booth” is sort of a misnomer.  Booger McFarland will be that “third voice you hear” but he will not be in the booth.  Rather, he will be riding the sidelines in what ESPN calls “The Booger Mobile” which is a motorized cart that can amble up and down the sidelines to give Booger a field-level/close-up view of the action.  Take the cart away and this is reminiscent of the way Tony Siragusa used to work NFL games for Fox.  I’ll reserve judgment on “The Booger Mobile” as an asset to the telecast or just a gimmick for a while but I will say this:

  • After listening to Booger McFarland on ESPN Radio programs and on studio shows related to college football on ESPN and ESPN2, I think he has a chance to be the star of this team.  He is articulate and he has a quick wit – two important traits for a football color analyst.  Most importantly, he seems not to be full of himself which means he will not likely grate on viewers’ nerves.

I think NFL fans can look forward to MNF this year.  Checking out the new announcing team will be an interesting undertaking plus the NFL seems to have upgraded the schedule of games played on Monday night.  I will grant you that the first game of the year on MNF is not particularly appetizing – – Jets and Lions – – but late game for Week 1 on MNF will be the Rams and the Raiders and that game should be interesting from several angles.  Here is a link to the full Monday Night Football schedule for 2018.

I cannot possibly claim to be a serious follower of professional golf, so I will present here a stat sent to me by a former colleague who is a serious follower of professional golf and “golf history”:

“When Brooks Koepka won the US Open and the PGA Championship this year, he earned more prize money there than Arnold Palmer plus Gary Player earned in their careers combined.”

There you have a clear demonstration of the growth of sporting enterprises over the last 50 years and the amounts of money that sponsors are willing to put into sporting enterprises in terms of advertising and promotion.

Recently, I wrote here that the Washington Nationals’ season of underachievement was due in part to a coddling atmosphere surrounding the team.  Yesterday, the Nats traded away two of their players for nothing more than money to offset some of the luxury tax they will pay for the 2018 season.  Various commentators have concluded that the Nats are throwing in the towel on this season and have begun their roster strategizing for 2019.   As of this morning, the Nats are 63-63 which is mediocre by any standard and which is seriously short of expectations for a team that is well into the luxury tax zone in terms of its payroll.  More importantly, the Nats have only the 9th best record in the National League.

The players the Nats traded away – Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams – are not prime offenders in terms of lackadaisical play and both wound up with teams well ahead of the Nats in the standings.  (Murphy to the Cubs and Adams to the Cardinals) What the Nats need to do is to ask themselves why they found themselves in this situation given the talent on this year’s roster – especially as compared to the talent on the rosters of a few of the teams above them in the standings.  Once the team braintrust focuses on that aspect of the 2018 debacle, they might be able to figure out how to avoid another season like this one after they go out and spend plenty of money to assemble a new cast of characters.

Finally, speaking of baseball teams having disastrous seasons in 2018, consider this comment from Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times:

“Smithfield Foods has been ordered to pay $470 million to neighbors for the smell from a hog farm.

“Don’t go getting any ideas there, Oriole fans!”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………