Author: Jack

All to often, press interviews with people in sports – and in politics to be sure – devolve into clichés and polite-speak.  I know that I prefer candid and honest answers to questions as opposed to the pabulum that normally emanates from the focal point of a “presser” and it is in that context that I want to offer nothing but praise for XFL Commissioner, Oliver Luck.  After the XFL held its draft, folks noticed that neither Johnny Manziel nor Trent Richardson had been drafted by any of the 8 teams in the league.  Someone asked Luck about that and here is what he had to say:

“I would argue that the players we have are better than those guys, to be honest with you.  Johnny has his own history and we have coaches from the CFL who have seen him close-up.  I watched Trent when he was with the Colts, and I watched him when he was with the AAF.  He was in the draft pool.  Coaches and scouts looked at him and didn’t think he was going to help their team.  I think the guys we have on our teams are the best 560 that aren’t playing in the National Football League.”

Just in case anyone needs me to point it out, that is candor on display.

A couple of months ago, Sports Illustrated was sold; it is no longer part of the Time Magazine family.  That family of magazines was sold in 2018 and SI just did not fit with the sort of publications offered by the new owners.  So, SI was sold separately to a company whose main business is to license rights to celebrities.  That was nowhere near a good fit and that led to the sale to the current owners.  The new ownership is a company called Maven about which I knew nothing at the time of the sale and still no next to nothing about.  However, here is what I know from various published reports:

• Four other publications produced by Maven are Ski Magazine, History, Maxim and Yoga Journal.  [It is not clear to me how Sports Illustrated fits in there.]
• As the deal closed, Maven laid off about one-third of the Sports Illustrated staff.
• The intent of the new owners was to cover sports nationally with an “army of credentialed journalists” – evidently the majority of them working part-time.

The Maven view here is that Sports Illustrated as it has existed from its birth in the 1950s and 60s misses out on what sports fans want from a sports publication – – the latest breaking news on the teams they love.  On that point, the Maven vision is correct; Sports Illustrated never did that kind of journalism and a weekly or bi-weekly magazine can never hope to do that.  It seems to me that the Maven vision for SI is seen as an either/or proposition:

• Either it does “latest breaking news” or it does “long-form and analytical essays”.

I agree that it would be difficult satisfy both of those objectives in the same publication but there is value in being different and occupying a space where there are fewer competitors.  There are multiple online sources of “latest breaking news” each of them seeking to beat the other guys to the punch by an hour here or 20 minutes there and the tone of many such sites is not unlike a herd of braying donkeys.

The Sports Illustrated that I recall from my youth – to which I subscribed for about 30 years – offered me things that my daily newspaper did not.  That made it special; that turned it into an iconic brand.  If you check out SI.com online, the entries there are not “latest breaking news” sorts of things, and it is online where that kind of journalism must reside if it is going to survive.  I do not understand what Maven has in mind for Sports Illustrated but I doubt that the latest incarnation of the magazine will bear much resemblance to the one I used to have delivered to my home.

For more detailed information, here is a link to an article about Maven and its CEO and various folks who were part of the Sports Illustrated business.

Meanwhile, CBSSports.com had a report last week saying that the Colorado Rockies might consider trading Nolan Arenado.  You can bet that caught my attention; they may consider doing what?  Just a year ago, the Rockies signed Arenado to a contract extension for 7 years at a total of $260M.  That is a lot of money; but Arenado is, in my opinion, the best third baseman in MLB, and he is only 28 years old.  Here are some data:

• Arenado has been in the majors for 8 years; he has been an All-Star 5 times and he has won a Gold Glove in each of those 7 seasons.
• His career slash line is .295/.351/.897.  In the first year of his fat contract extension, he beat those career averages with .315/.379/.962.

With that sort of news out there, you can find plenty of speculation pieces about where he might wind up in a trade and what the Rockies might get in return.  The column I would love to read is why the folks who run the Rockies franchise have changed their minds about the path to take to build a contending team.  After all, that contract extension is less than a year old as of this morning…

Finally, I mentioned previously that the Lingerie Football League has ceased to exist.  Brad Dickson commented on that happening in two Tweets:

“The Legends League, AKA the Lingerie Football League, has folded. At least it went out with a bang after the San Antonio Teddies defeated Rutgers, 24-20.”

And …

“The Legends League, AKA the Lingerie League, has folded. Great, now who are Southeastern Conference teams going to play in the non-conference season?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I don’t even know where to begin with the first topic of the day.  It involves two abjectly odious institutions – the NCAA and the Congress of the United States.  Putting those two organizations into any story makes the story about as appealing as curdled milk.

According to a report in the LA Times, two members of the House of Representatives have introduced bipartisan legislation to create something called the Congressional Advisory Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics (CACIA).  These two Congressthings want more oversight on Intercollegiate Athletics that pays attention to the academics of the schools and to the well-being of the student-athletes.  I have no problem with that, but you are going to need the oratorical skills of Clarence Darrow and Cicero merged with the literary prowess of William Shakespeare to convince me that the US Congress is the entity to provide such constructive oversight.

The CACIA would consist of appointees by the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House and the Senate plus one member appointed by the Secretary of Education.  The purpose of CACIA is to study issues outlined in the legislation and to prepare a report which would include recommendations to the Congress for needed change.

Folks, what this means is that intercollegiate athletics would then be overseen by the Congress and the DoJ.  As lothesome as I find the NCAA, I am hard-pressed to convince myself that having the Congress and DoJ in charge is even marginally better.  About the only way to make this idea even worse would be to have CACIA coordinate its reporting with the US Olympic Committee and broaden the scope to “nominally amateur” athletics before the Congress gets the report and uses it to do something that will certainly have adverse unintended consequences.

Moving on …

The Jags fired Tom Coughlin as their VP of Football – or whatever his title was – last week.  This came on the heels of an arbitrators ruling against the club and an NFLPA statement that 25% of player grievances filed against the league for arbitration involved the Jags.  The union went on to say that players should keep that in mind when deciding where they may want to play when they have that decision to make.

Tom Coughlin – by all reporting – is a no-nonsense tight ass, and he has been that for decades.  I believe that in modern parlance he would be labeled as a “control freak”.  Anyone seeking to establish a warm and fuzzy work environment with employee involvement in decision making should not hire Tom Coughlin to oversee that organization.  Nonetheless:

• Tom Coughlin has coached 2 Super Bowl winning teams in NY.
• Tom Coughlin beat Bill Belichick and the Patriots in both of those Super Bowls.
• He coached the Jags for the first 8 years of their existence with a record of 68-60.
• His 20-year regular season coaching record was 170-150 with a playoff record of 12-7.

I think it would be fair to say that in the world of coaching NFL football, Tom Coughlin was a successful no-nonsense tight ass.  In his role as VP of Football in Jax, Coughlin made some serious mistakes and two of the big ones involved QBs:

1. He retained the services of Blake Bortles at least one year too long – – and maybe 2 years too long.
2. He signed Nick Foles to a contract for 4 years and $88M with $45M guaranteed at signing.

Bortles can’t play; Foles can play but can’t play worth $88M.  Those decisions were bad, and the team will need time to extricate itself from the consequences of those decisions.

Some players like traded-away Jalen Ramsey and still on the job Leonard Fournette are being smug about “outliving” Tom Coughlin.  That’s okay – – and at the same time, until such time when either or both Ramsey and Fournette get their third Super Bowl ring, Tom Coughlin will be happy with his two.

Thinking about this situation suggests to me that great coaches from the past would not succeed in today’s NFL.  Anyone who thinks Coughlin is overbearing would likely curl up into the fetal position if they had to live under Vince Lombardi.

As the NFL regular season comes to an end next week, we can look forward to the announcement of various awards – many of which look pretty obvious to me.

• Lamar Jackson is the MVP
• John Harbaugh is the Coach of the Year – – with Kyle Shanahan getting votes too.
• Nick Bosa is Defensive Rookie of the Year
• Josh Jacobs is the Offensive Rookie of the Year

And etc.

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to hand out other sorts of “Awards” and here are 4 for this NFL season:

1. Worst Innovation:  Challenging pass interference calls.
2. Biggest Underachievement (Team Category):  Cleveland Browns – – thought by some to be a dark-horse for the Super Bowl – – with the LA Chargers going from 12-4 last year to 5-10 as of this morning getting votes too.
3. Biggest Underachievement (Player Category):  Odell Beckham, Jr.
4. Biggest Underachievement (Coaching Category):  Matt Patricia – – with Sean McVey getting votes too.

Finally, Bob Molinaro had this comment in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot a couple of weeks ago regarding a disappointing season by an NFL star player:

“Foot loose: Improbably, the Colts are sticking with Adam Vinatieri during a brutal season that would result in a less-celebrated kicker being kicked to the curb. The 46-year-old future Hall of Famer has missed 11 kicks — including six extra-point attempts — costing Indy two or three games. I suppose the loyalty to Vinatieri reflects well on Indy’s brass and how the kicker is regarded in the locker room. But it begs the question — is his next miss his last?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Former White House Chief of Staff, John Sununu once said of Fridays:

“For most Americans, Friday afternoons are filled with positive anticipation of the weekend. In Washington, it’s where government officials dump stories they want to bury.”

I am not a government official – you can rest easy on that score – but I am in Washington; so, let me assure you that I am not here to bury this edition of Football Friday.

Now, you could talk me into trying to bury last week’s edition since the Truncated Six-Pack last week was horrifically incorrect at 0-3-1.  I shall try to do better this week with another Six-Pack containing fewer than 6 elements.  Here is how we stand for the season to date:

• Overall:  35-26-3
• College:  19-7-1
• NFL:  16-19-2

Since last week’s Football Friday coincided with Friday the Thirteenth, perhaps that explains the dismal record.  Or not…

 

College Football Commentary:

 

Nothing worth discussing this week …

 

College Football Games This Week:

 

This is the silly end of the college football bowl schedule.  There are nine games today and tomorrow involving Division 1-A teams.  Only one of those nine games is even marginally interesting.

Washington – 3 vs Boise St (50):  If you live west of Montana and north of Oregon, this game might be interesting to you.  For the rest of the world, here is the only “interesting bit” that I could find:

• Washington ranks 23^rd in the country in scoring defense for 2019.
• Boise St. ranks 24^th in the country in scoring defense for 2019

 

NFL Commentary:

 

I made it a point to watch a replay of last week’s Raiders/Jags game because of the way the game ended and because I hoped to see at least some of the kerfuffle between fans and security folks at the end.  The game was uninspiring; I am not sure the most ardent fan of either team would take umbrage at that assessment.  The Jags won the game at the end with a TD drive in the final 2 minutes.  They were aided in that final drive by a bad decision on the part of the Raiders’ coaching staff.  Let me explain:

• The Raiders led 16-13 and had the ball in their own territory with 1:47 left in the game.  It was 3^rd down and 11.
• The Raiders called a pass play that was incomplete stopping the clock.  After the ensuing punt, the Jags had the ball at about their 35 yardline with 1:31 to play.
• That incomplete pass was a “free timeout” for the Jags.  A running play would have taken about and then another 40 seconds would have run off the clock followed by the 8 or 9 seconds that the punt play would consume.
• Instead of having 1:31 to drive the field, the Jags would have had only about 53 seconds on the clock.

Time management is an important part of game strategy; too many coaching staffs demonstrate their lack of strategic thinking when it comes to playing with or against the clock.  A former colleague was once describing a third individual’s inability to think strategically this way:

• A chess player is a strategic thinker.  Joe Flabeetz plays tic-tac-toe.

I was sorry to see a bit of and read a lot about the way the Oakland fans behaved at the end of that game.  The Raiders are an iconic franchise; read Going Long by Jeff Miller and/or Football’s Blackest Hole by Craig Parker to get an appreciation of what I mean by an “iconic franchise”.  I understand that the last two decades of Raider football has been dismal; the team record since its last Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 2002 season is 91-179-0 – – with one more game to play in 2019; as a close approximation, the Raiders have lost two games for every one they have won in the last 17 seasons.

Nonetheless, there was something wrong with the fans booing the team as they left the field for what is probably the last time in Oakland – – unless of course the team moves back there one more time for the 2040 NFL season.  It could not have been a joyous occasion for those fans, but their behavior was low rent as far as I am concerned.

At the other end of the spectrum of fan behavior were the fans of the NY Giants who gave Eli Manning a standing ovation when he was taken out of the game with a victory in the bag against the Dolphins.  That was probably his last home appearance for the Giants; Manning has been a polarizing figure in NY for a while now, but I thought the Giants’ fans showed a lot of class in the way they sent him off.

There were two interesting signings off the waiver wire this week:

• Janoris Jenkins signed with the Saints after the Giants released him.  Jenkins had used the word “retard” in one of his social media postings; people took offense; Jenkins defended his use of the word; people who were offended became enraged; the Giants cut Jenkins.  So, let me get this straight…  Jenkins suffered some kind of “punishment/sanction” in getting released by a team with a 3-11 record so that he could join the Saints with a record of 11-3 and assured participation in the playoffs.  As Br’er Rabbit begged Br’er Fox, “Please don’t throw me in that briar patch.”
• Terrell Suggs signed with the Chiefs after the Cards released him.  Suggs is clearly in the final phase of his career; he is 37 years old and has been in the NFL for 17 seasons.  The Cards’ defense is not a sterling unit; it ranks 31^st in the NFL giving up 413.1 yards per game.  Suggs’ stats include:

4 forced fumbles  5.5 sacks  7 QB hits  8 tackles for a loss

• And the Cards didn’t want to keep him around for the final two games of the 2019 season?

In the offense-minded NFL that exists in 2019, I think the Pats and the Packers are teams that need to worry in the playoffs – – unless one or both get home field for a couple of those playoff games.  Both offenses are somewhere between “anemic” and “lackluster” these days.

There were some Highlights from last week’s games:

• The Cowboys disemboweled the Rams 44-21 – – it wasn’t even that close.  Ezekiel Elliott ran for 117 yards and 2 TDs; Tony Pollard also ran for 131 and a TD; the Cowboys ran for 263 yards in the game.  Meanwhile, Todd Gurley was held to 20 yards rushing on 11 carries.
• Jameis Winston threw for 458 yards 3 TDs and 1 INT in a dominating win over the Lions.
• The Pats’ defense forced 5 turnovers against Bengals and the defensive unit won the game even though it looks like an offensive explosion on the scoreboard.
• Dwayne Haskins had – by far – his best game as a QB for the Skins despite losing to the Eagles.
• The Texans beat the Titans and now their path to the playoffs is clear.  Win out and the Texans are in as the AFC South Champ.  Of course, the same two teams meet again next week in the final regular season game…
• As noted above, Eli Manning won what is almost certain to have been his last start in NY.  Beating the Dolphins in that final start diminishes the accomplishment just a tad.  Hi ho!
• The Bills are in the playoffs after a win on the road over the Steelers.
• Drew Brees broke Peyton Manning’s career record for most TD passes in the Saints’ 34-7 dismantling of the Colts.
• The most shocking result of the week had to be Falcons 29 Niners 22.  The Falcons trailed 19-10 in the 4^th quarter and came back to win.

There were some Lowlights from last week’s games:

• Kyle Allen threw 3 more INTs for the Panthers.  The bloom seems to have fallen off that rose; the Panthers will start Will Grier this week.
• Not to be outdone, “Duck” Hodges threw 4 INTs and lost a fumble against the Bills.  The Steelers will stick with Hodges again this week.
• The Broncos were held to 1 FG in a snowy 23-3 loss to Chiefs.  Here’s the deal: when you hold the Chiefs to 23 points – snow or no snow – you should have a realistic chance to win the game.  The Broncos were never a threat to win this game.
• The Chargers turned the ball over 7 times to the Vikes leading to a humiliating loss by a score of 39-10.
• As mentioned above, the Raiders defense allowed Gardner Minshew to conduct two LONG TD drives in the 4^th quarter to turn a 16-3 lead into a 20-16 loss against the woebegone Jags.
• The Browns’ run defense allowed the Cards to amass 226 yards on the ground.  Not surprisingly, the Cards won the game 38-24.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

There was no Thursday Night Football last evening; instead, the NFL will present a Saturday triple header this week on NFL Network.  If you watch the 3 games on Saturday plus all or parts of the 3 games on Sunday afternoon plus the 2 night games on Sunday and Monday, you will have seen 16 of the NFL’s 32 teams.  If you indeed watch all that football this weekend, you may also be seeing a marriage counselor or a divorce lawyer very soon…

 

(Sat Nite) Rams at SF – 6 (44):  Neither team played well last week.  The Niners’ defense has been burned two weeks in a row.  Question: Will the Rams wake up here after a somnambulant showing in Dallas?  Last week, the Rams’ rushing yardage was 22 yards; Jared Goff completed less than 50% of his pass attempts; the defense was gashed by Cowboys’ run game.

(Late Sat Afternoon) Buffalo at New England – 6.5 (36.5): The Bills have won 2 of their last 18 games in Foxboro.  Both teams are in the playoffs.  This is the first season with double-digit wins by the Bills since Y2K.  Points will be at a premium in this game.  I think the line is fat, so I’ll put the Bills plus the points in this week’s Abbreviated Six-Pack.  To demonstrate what I mean by “points will be at a premium” here, consider:

• In 2019, 9 of the Pats 14 games have gone UNDER.
• In 2019, 11 of the Bills 14 games have gone UNDER.

(Early Sat Afternoon) Houston – 3.5 at Tampa (50.5):  This game opened as “pick ‘em” but that did not last long.  The Bucs have won 4 games in a row and they have scored an average of 34.75 points per game over that run.  The Bucs’ secondary is the weak link for the team – – and Watson/Hopkins/Stills should be able to exploit that weakness.  Consider these 2019 stats for Jameis Winston:

• Leads the NFL in pass attempts (554) and passing yardage (4573) and yards per game (326.6).
• Stands second in the league in TDs and in yards per completion.
• Also leads the NFL in INTs (24).

I am tempted to take the game to go OVER, but I cannot resist the temptation to fade the Texans here.  This is a “sandwich game” for them between two games against the Titans plus the Texans have not been reliable week over week this season.  I will put the Bucs plus the points in this week’s Condensed Six-Pack.

Detroit at Denver – 7 (48):  This game got some consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week but did not make it to that depth.  There is no way to make a pick here because I cannot trust the Broncos and I will not take the Lions on the road.  Both teams will use their third starting QB of the season in this game.  The Lions started 2019 with a record of 2-0-1; since then, the Lions are 1-10.  If it were any team other than the Lions, people would say “WTF?”  Since these are the Lions people are saying “Ho-hum.”  Here is something more to demonstrate how the Lions remain the Lions:

• The Lions went 36-28 from 2014-2017, with a couple of playoff appearances.
• Then they fired Jim Caldwell after back-to-back 9-7 seasons in order to hire Matt Patricia to “change the culture” and “take the team to the next level”.  Matt Patricia is 9-20-1 in his tenure in Detroit.

Oakland at Chargers – 7 (45):  Both teams are sinking so fast you’d think someone tossed them a life preserver made of cement.  Question:

• If Gruden ran off Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, might he also jettison Derek Carr who has not played well at all down the stretch?

The free agent market is not populated with a lot of desirable choices so that would mean the Raiders would start their time in Las Vegas with a rookie QB.  Stay tuned…

Jax at Atlanta – 7 (46):  This is another game that was considered as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Amazingly, both teams come to the game on a “winning streak”.  Question:

• Can the Falcons finish strong enough to save Dan Quinn’s job?

If you find that question uninteresting, just ignore this game.

New Orleans – 2.5 at Tennessee (50):  The spread on this game ranges from 1 point – where it opened the week – to 3 points at one Internet sportsbook.  The most common spread values are 2 points and 2.5 points.  The Titans need this game to stay within striking distance of the Texans in the AFC South.  The Saints need this game for seeding in the NFC Playoffs.    I was tempted to take the Titans plus the points at home – – but I still cannot bring myself to believe in the Titans as a consistent team. Also, this is a “sandwich game” for Titans as it is for the Texans.

Giants at Washington – 2 (41):  With all the stinky games on the card this weekend – and with the Dolphins/Bengals game placed in a unique category of its own (see below) – this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Notwithstanding that status, this is the game that will be force-fed to NFL fans in the DC area on Sunday.

Pittsburgh – 3 at Jets (37):  The Steelers will make the playoffs with a win here and a win next week.  The Jets will make the playoffs one of these years.  The Jets have best run defense in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt.  Question 1:

• Can they force “Duck” Devlin to throw it 38 times as he did last week in a 4 INT performance against the Bills?

Question 2:

• Will Le’Veon Bell see this as some sort of “vindication game” against his old mates – some of whom abandoned him in his holdout back in 2018?

Cincy – 1 at Miami (46):  The spread opened the week with the Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite.  So much for that stuff…  Let me call this one the Essence of Excrement Game of the Year.  This game goes beyond any label involving “dog-breath”; this game stretches the meaning of “fetid”.  The only way for the Bengals to lose the #1 pick in the Draft is for them to win out.  A Dolphins win here ends the Dolphins hopes for acquiring that pick.  Hmmm…   Both teams will be shopping for a QB starting in January.

Carolina at Indy – 6.5 (46.5):  This game looked like it would be a good one back in August; but now, it is bleak.  The Panthers will bench Kyle Allen to start Will Grier here.  Rookie QBs in their first start have done surprisingly well so far this year.  Grier was picked in 3^rd round out of WVa last year.  My guess is that he will be a bit surprised by the very big difference in pass defense as it is played in the NFL as opposed to pass defense as it is played in the Big 12.

Baltimore – 9.5 at Cleveland (49.5):  The spread opened at 7 points and has climbed during the week.  I found it at 10 points at an Internet sportsbook this morning.  Somehow the Browns won the first meeting between these two teams back in late September and won that game by 15 points.  I think the Ravens get revenge this week.  Here are two questions involving this game:

1. Baker Mayfield has 17 TD passes and 17 INTs this year.  Can he finish the season with more TDs than INTs?
2. Can Browns finish with a non-losing record for the 3rd time since their rebirth in 1999?  If they win out, the Browns will be 8-8 this year.

I’ll put the Ravens in this week’s Shrunken Six-Pack to win and cover.

Dallas – 2 at Philly (46):  The Cowboys’ situation is this: “Win and you’re in”.  The Eagles must win out to be sure of a playoff slot.  Imagine the reaction in Philly to this scenario:

• The Eagles beat Cowboys on Sunday.  Elation in Philly.
• Then the Eagles lose to Giants in Week 17 and miss the playoffs.

Put the city on suicide watch.

Arizona at Seattle – 10 (50):  The Seahawks have home field advantage in the NFC Playoffs as of this morning so winning out is important to them.  This game features Russell Wilson at home against a not-very-good defense.  Seahawks have 11 wins this year however, they only won 1 of those games by more than one score – 8 points.  That one comfortable win was in Week 4 and it came against the Cards in Arizona.

(Sun Nite) KC – 6 at Chicago (44.5):  The Bears cannot make playoffs; the Chiefs are definitely in the playoffs and would like to get a higher seeding.  Let’s see … Patrick Mahomes or Mitchell Trubisky?  Hmmm…  Last week, the Bears had Trubisky throwing the ball 53 times.

• Memo to coach Nagy:  That is NOT a winning formula.

(Mon Nite) Green Bay at Minnesota – 5.5 (46):  The Packers’ offense has been dormant recently.  Since November 10^th, the Packers have only scored more than 24 points once and that was against the Giants’ pitiful defense.  Here the Packers are up against a Vikes’ defense that is a good one.  The Packers have won 3 in a row over lesser competition and the Vikes are indeed at home where they are undefeated in 2019.  The outcome here has direct bearing on NFC North race.  Dalvin Cook is likely out of the game with a shoulder injury.  I’ll put the Packers plus the points in this week’s Excerpted Six-Pack.

Let me summarize this week’s Six-Pack:

• Bills + 6.5 versus Pats
• Bucs + 3.5 versus Texans
• Ravens – 9.5 over Browns
• Packers +5.5 versus Vikes

Finally, Dwight Perry had this comment in the Seattle Times last week which marries well NFL football and the Holiday Season:

“The best place in America to experience New Year’s Eve, according to a WalletHub.com study, is New York City.

“Except now there’s bickering over whether it’s a Jets or Giants receiver who gets to drop the ball at midnight.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Former NBA Commissioner, David Stern, is in serious condition after surgery was required to alleviate a “brain hemorrhage”.  I often had less than totally positive things to say about his “Commissioner-ship”, but I certainly do not wish this sort of thing on anyone.  Notwithstanding previous contrary views to his, I do wish him a full recovery.

As of this morning, we are 97% of the way through the Calendar Year and I would like to pose a question for comment:

• Who/What in the sports world was the biggest disappointment in 2019?

An alternative way to put the question could be:

• What sports figure had the biggest “crash and burn” event of 2019?

I will offer three nominees here; I am certain there are others:

• Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles:  In 2015, Davis led the major leagues in home runs with 47 and he drove in 117 runs.  The O’s recognized that performance with a monster contract – 7 years and $161M.  His performance in 2016 – 2018 was more than disappointing but as the 2019 season dawned folks were talking about his having lost weight and his “re-engineered swing”.  Those are standard stories from MLB Spring Training sites, but there was a momentum to the multiple stories of that type.  Here are the stats from 2019:

BA = .179   OPS = .601   SO = 139   HR = 12   RBI = 36

• There are 3 years left on that monster contract he signed with the Orioles – at $23M per year.  It looks as if this career is over.

 

• Antonio Brown – Free Agent WR:  As 2019 dawned, Antonio Brown was considered to be one of the top 3 WRs in the NFL – and many folks would have argued he was THE best WR in the NFL.  Like some of his WR brethren, he was a diva and was the source of those dreaded distractions in the locker room.  The Steelers decided they could live without him and he signed on with Jon Gruden and the Raiders.  Training camp with the Raiders was a circus – remember his blistered feet and his arrival in a hot air balloon?  His career with the Raiders lasted exactly ZERO games whereupon he signed with the Pats where he lasted exactly ONE game.  Intertwined with all those events are allegations of sexual assault.
• Brown is too talented to have his career ended by that.  However, his career is in tatters; and he now brings so much baggage with him that his diva behaviors will need to be toned down a bit to accommodate the “optics” involving whichever team signs him next.

 

• The Alliance of American Football – Defunct professional football league:  When 2019 began, the AAF was on the launching pad ready to satisfy the national hunger for football starting the week after the Super Bowl.  It had recognizable names on the league’s letterhead; seven of its eight head coaches had been in that position in the NFL or at major college programs; the league had a TV deal with CBS Sports and the NFL Network was going to carry AAF games too.  There was reason for optimism; after all, professional spring football had succeeded as the USFL up to the time when that league chose to try to go head-to-head with the NFL.  The AAF could not even finish its first season and could not pay off all the contracts that were liabilities to the league.
• All of the optimism that permeated the news involving the AAF juxtaposed with its rapid dissolution calls to mind an observation by Voltaire:

“Optimism is the madness of maintaining that everything is right when it is wrong.”

Other nominations are welcome in the “Comments” section below.  And of course, we must leave open the possibility of a yet unidentified “crash and burn” in the remaining 3% of Calendar Year 2019…

There was a report last week about the ad sales for next summer’s Olympic Games in Tokyo.  The report said that NBC has already sold more than $1B of time slots for those games.  To put that in perspective, the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro generated $1.2B in ad revenues; that was the highest ad revenue for the Olympics in history; the games will not start for another 7 months so it would appear that NBC will set another new record in 2020.

NBC announced that the “span” of advertising partners reaches from financial services firms through pharmaceutical companies all the way to fast food establishments.  If you are planning to watch the Summer Olympics, you will find on all the NBC platforms a bit more than 7000 hours of programming.  If that sounds like an awful lot of programming time, you are correct; consider that there are 8760 hours in a year…

Finally, since I cited Voltaire above with his comment on optimism, let me close with a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Optimist:  One who sees the glass half full, even when it is half full of urine.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

This has never happened before.  Yesterday, I got two e-mails from readers with questions.  I believe that allows me today to do my first “Mailbox Rant” ever…

Let me introduce the first e-mail correspondent.  He and I met as college freshmen.  He went on to a career as a sportswriter who then left that sort of journalism to become a features writer for various papers and magazines.  Here are the salient portions of his missive from yesterday.

The subject line on the e-mail was “Why I hate stats!”:

Did you … see this stat line for Drew Brees?

C/ATT  YDS     AVG    TD       INT      SACKS            QBR    RTG

29/30    307     10.2      4          0          0-0                  97.0     148.9

First, I have no idea what QBR is; am I not correct that everybody talks about the RTG?

The perfect score is 158.3, right?

Brees, after one of the finest games in history, did not achieve that. What does he have to do, run back kickoffs to get a perfect score?

I demand some action from you …!

Let me take the easy questions first:

• QBR is a rating system developed by ESPN that grades a QB’s performance on a scale where 100 is the “perfect score”.  I suppose the thinking there is that people can relate to “Perfection” and “100” easily from their days in school.  As natural as it is, most folks still deal with the QB Rating.
• I do not know who developed the QB Rating System in the first place, but it was around before the QBR system emerged.  Indeed, the perfect rating in that context is 158.3.

Now for the more complicated answer – – and don’t shoot the messenger because I am just reporting this.  Here is how you calculate the QB Rating:

• There are 4 elements to be measured.  Each is given an evaluation that must fall between zero and 2.375.
• Element 1 is Completion Percentage.  Be prepared; this may make your head explode.  To calculate Element 1, you take Drew Brees’ completion percentage (96.67) and subtract 30; then multiply that result by .05.
• Element 1 = (96.67 – 30) x 0.05 = 3.335.  However, each element is “capped” at 2.375…
• Element 2 is Yards per Attempt.  To calculate Element 2, you take Drew Brees’ yards per attempt (10.23) and subtract 3.0 and then multiply by 0.25.
• Element 2 = (10.23 – 3.0) x 0.25 =  1.808
• Element 3 is Touchdown Percentage.  To calculate Element 3, you take Drew Brees’ touchdown percentage (13.33) and multiply that by 0.20.
• Element 3 = 13.33 x 0.20 = 2.666
• Element 4 is Interception Percentage.  To calculate Element 4, you take Drew Brees’ INT Percentage (0.00) and multiply that by 0.25 and then subtract that result from 2.375.
• Element 4 = 2.375 – (0.00 x 0.25) = 2.375 – 0.00 = 2.375.

Calm down; take a sip of your coffee – or some other adult beverage if you so choose; I know that the calculations here are arbitrary and capricious; I know that one could never derive this “formula” from the essential elements of Earth, Air, Fire and Water.  Now, that you have reached a more peaceful state, let’s proceed to the next level of arbitrary and capricious:

• To get the QB Rating, you take the 4 Elements calculated above and add them together.  Then you divide by 6 and multiply by 100.
• So, for Drew Brees the QB Rating would be 169.7 – – if you were to allow Element 1 to exceed 2.375.  However, when Element 1 is capped at 2.375, then his QB Rating is 153.7.

He need not have returned kickoffs to improve his rating simply because that is not part of the 4 Elements that enter into the calculation.  Had he thrown another TD in and among those 30 attempts, it would have increased his QB Rating.  Had his yards per pass attempt been higher, it would have increased his QB rating.

That is the basis of QB Rating – – and it is why I think the system is “severely limited”.  Now that you know “the rest of the story” [Hat Tip to Paul Harvey here…] you probably hate stats even more than you did as you sent that e-mail to me.

The other e-mail came from a former colleague who has been reading my rants since before the time that they hit the Internet.  Here is the question:

“You like to bang on Dan Snyder and James Dolan as bad owners.  So, who are their counterparts in baseball and the NHL?”

1.  It is not a trivial matter to answer this question – – but I will not take you into the realm of mathematics and mysticism as I answer.  Now that the Wilpons have chosen to sell off their majority interest in the Mets, they have taken themselves out of the running – but they would have been formidable contenders prior to that sales agreement. The ownership group in Miami fronted by Derek Jeter has not been around nearly long enough to qualify here.  Marge Schott is dead.  So, I think this “honor” would go to Peter Angelos for his meddling and micromanagement of the Orioles’ team over the past couple of decades.
2. I will not pretend to know enough about hockey or the NHL to offer a cogent choice here. I will point out, however, that the Toronto Maple Leafs have not won the Stanley Cup since 1967 …

Finally, since there is an air of cynicism in today’s rant, let me provide you with H. L. Mencken’s definition of a cynic:

“A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

In one of my recent rants, I wondered aloud why Josh Gordon was released by the Patriots and allowed to sign on with the Seahawks.  The Pats are bereft of WRs who threaten the defense except for Julian Edelman who is not a “stretch the field” sort of threat.  Perhaps the answer to that wonderment is contained in news today from CBSSports.com.  Here is the headline:

• Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely for violating NFL’s policy against performance-enhancing drugs

The suspension is “indefinite”; this is Gordon’s 5^th NFL suspension dating back to 2013.  He has been suspended for entire seasons; and also, he has been suspended “indefinitely” in the past.  Since the penalties for repeat offenders of such NFL policies are supposed to escalate, I wonder what this suspension will morph into.  Josh Gordon will turn 29 years old next Spring; physically, he still has the possibility of an NFL career at WR ahead of him.  Whether that physical potential manifests itself in actual appearances in future NFL games rests in the hands of Roger Goodell.

Over the course of his oft-interrupted career, Josh Gordon has averaged 17.2 yards per catch.  That stat is the reason he will likely be given a shot with an NFL team should he ever be reinstated.  There are about a dozen WRs in the Hall of Fame whose career yards per catch are less than 17.2.  Notable among them are:

• Tommy McDonald  17.0 yards per catch
• Lenny Moore  16.6
• Lynn Swann  16.3
• John Stallworth  16.2
• Steve Largent  16.0
• Calvin Johnson  15.9  [A sure-fire future inductee]
• Michael Irvin  15.9
• Randy Moss  15.6

Josh Gordon’s return to the NFL has Roger Goodell as a gatekeeper.  However, there are several other players familiar to every NFL fan who may choose to leave the game at the end of this season.  All of them are QBs and so in alphabetical order:

• Tom Brady:  This has been his ”worst” season from a statistical standpoint; he will be 43 years old before next season starts; his contract is structured such that it can be voided at the end of this season.  Could he leave New England for another team?  Could he leave the NFL?
• Drew Brees:  He will be 41 in the middle of this year’s NFL playoff schedule; he is a free agent at the end of this year; he just set the all-time career record for TD passes.
• Eli Manning:  He will be 39 a couple of days after this regular season ends; he is a free agent at the end of the year; he has said he does not want to be a back-up QB anywhere
• Philip Rivers:  He just turned 38 years old; he is the youngster in this group; he likes living in the San Diego area so much that he commutes daily from there to the LA Chargers facilities in Carson CA; he is a free agent at the end of this year.

Interestingly Brees, Manning and Rivers have careers that have intertwined.  Manning and Rivers were traded for each other on Draft Day and Rivers is the QB who replaced Brees in San Diego.

I mentioned above that the Pats are “wide receiver deficient” this season.  The fact that the “deficiency” is masked by the Pats’ record and scoring stats is due to the generosity of the NFL schedule-maker.  The Pats have played the following teams this year:

• Jets and Dolphins twice each
• The entire mediocrity that is the NFC East
• Cleveland and Cincy from the AFC North

There are 10 games against what must be called “less than stiff competition”.  However, there is another team in the NFL whose WR situation pales in comparison to the Pats.  That would be the Philly Eagles who are probably about one hangnail short of calling up Vince Papale to find out if he can give them a game or two this December.  Here are the 3 WRs the Eagles had in uniform last week against the Skins:

• JJ Arcega-Whiteside  [You are forgiven if you do not know him from Adam.]
• Greg Ward Jr. [A college QB whose last gig was in the Alliance of American Football.]
• Robert Davis  [Career stats: 1 catch for 11 yards.  That’s all, folks.]

Missing from last week’s game are these folks who have played a bit of WR in the NFL but were unable to play due to injury:

• Nelson Agohlor
• Alshon Jeffrey
• DeSean Jackson

Total receptions for the 3 guys who can suit up would be 27 catches.  Total receptions for the 3 guys who are out with injuries would be 1291 catches.  That the Eagles have even a glimmer of hope to win the NFC East says all you need to know about that division in 2019.

Finally, Bob Molinaro mused about a potential sports conjunction in the Hampton Roads Virginian-Pilot:

“Bedfellows: I’m waiting for the story that accuses the Patriots of stealing signs for the Astros.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Sadly, we learned over the weekend that the Legends Football League – born as the Lingerie Football League of the same acronym – has ceased to exist.  The simple thing to announce would have been that the league can no longer sustain operating losses and has liquidated.  In 2019, such is not the style or the vocabulary of the times.  Instead, this is what the press announcement said:

• The Legends Football League “will not be producing a 2020 season.”

Here is what the league’s founder, Michael Mortaza had to say about the demise:

“We have enjoyed an incredible journey since our debut game on September 4, 2009, which has included unprecedented television coverage for a women’s sport, sold-out arenas and stadiums around the world and the league-play in the United States, Canada and Australia.

“We want to thank everyone that has been part of this amazing ten years from our broadcast partners to our sponsors as well as our tireless behind-the-scenes support staff, our thousands of athletes, hundreds of coaches and millions of fans.  We will cherish our memories, while leaving a legacy of attaining heights that no one anticipated.  Thank you all for being part of our history.”

Instead of putting me in a somber state of mind, here is what that statement made me think:

• You had “unprecedented TV coverage” thanks to your “broadcast partners” and your “sponsors”.  You played to “sell-out crowds” for games in the “United States, Canada and Australia”.  You had “millions of fans”.
• And you went bankrupt?

Rest in peace, Lingerie/Legends Football League…

After the Skins lost to the Eagles yesterday, one of the post-game talking heads declared that the “fight” and the “grit” shown by the Skins – despite the season being a total loss – meant that this game was a “moral victory” for the Skins.  I have heard about “moral victories” many times in the past; but yesterday’s label made me wonder:

• Is there such a thing as a “moral defeat”?
• If there is such a thing, are “moral defeats” paired with “moral victories”.  Or can “moral defeats” exist on their own?
• If they are paired entities, should the Eagles chalk up yesterday’s win as a “moral defeat”?

Dwight Perry had an interesting item in the Seattle Times last week.  He suggested that certain players should consider changing their numbers to bring their numbers more in line with their names e.g.:

Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler:  18

Ravens QB: Lamar Jackson:  5

Pistons forward Louis King:  XIV

Following that lead, perhaps Missouri DB, Mason Pack should wear the number “6”?  Or should that suggestion be reserved for a player in the future named “Motel”?

People often speak of a person’s “career arc”.  If you look at Willie Taggert’s coaching career from a geographical perspective, it seems to be an expanding ellipse:

• He began his career as a head coach at Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, KY which is north of Nashville, TN.
• From there, he went to USF in Tampa FL which is southeast by about 700 miles.
• Next, he went to Oregon in Eugene, OR which is about 3,000 miles to the northeast.
• Then he went on to Florida State in Tallahassee FL which is about 2800. Miles back to the southeast.
• From there, he was just hired at Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton, FL which is about 450 miles further to the southeast.

If I had to guess where his next job might be, I would put places like Boise State, Washington State and Washington on my “watch list” …

Finally, since I cited a Dwight Perry observation above, let me close with another of his musings in the Seattle Times:

“Utah broke the NCAA record for largest winning margin in a D-I men’s basketball game when the Utes clobbered Mississippi Valley State, 143-49.

“What, the Washington Generals weren’t available?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

As happened in September, Football Friday and Friday the Thirteenth must co-exist.  Not being superstitious, I feel no need to toss a pinch of salt over my shoulder as I set out on today’s rant nor do I think I should go around and look for a rabbit’s foot for good luck.  After all, it wasn’t such good luck for the rabbit…

Demonstrating that I do not always think ahead in sufficient detail, I now realize that with the college football season all but over in terms of picking games, that means I would have to make a serious selection in 6 NFL games to fill out a weekly Six-Pack for the rest of the month.  Simply put, that is not going to happen and so as of today, the weekly Six-Pack will masquerade itself with a smaller number of selections in the package.

Last week, the Six-Pack did well; the record was 4-2 overall and the college football portion of the Six-Pack remained en fuego.  Here is the current status of the Six-Pack selections to date:

• Overall:  35-23-2
• College:  19-6-1
• NFL:  16-17-1

 

College Football Commentary:

 

As everyone knows, I like to have fun with the names of players and here are some that I ran across looking for “stuff” to put in rants during this college football season:

• Lawrence Cager (WR- Georgia):  How come he isn’t on the basketball team…?
• Fa’Avae Fa’Avae (LB – Wash State):  Obviously, his nickname should be “Echo” …
• Jeremaine Johnson (WR- UMass):  His nickname is “OC”; there must be a story there…
• Andrew Parchment (WR- Kansas):  Guess what he uses when he turns in a term paper…
• Camerun Peoples (RB-Appalachian State):  Naturally, Camerun is a running back…

Dwight Perry of the Seattle Times ran across a player name that I did not; here is his comment from his Sideline Chatter column:

“Just wondering…  Does Arkansas linebacker Bumper Pool have a brother named Gene?”

I recall a nickname from the past that has always given me pause.  Cory “Poop” Johnson was a linebacker at Kentucky and spent some time in the CFL.  On one hand, I would like to know how he acquired that moniker; then again …

 

College Game this Week:

 

Army vs. Navy – 10.5 (40.5) [Game is in Philly]:  These lines are interesting.  The Total Line opened at 44 and has dropped steadily to this level; the preponderance of the betting money expects a low scoring game.  Nonetheless, Navy has been a 10.5-point favorite for the entire week.  That is a large spread for what is expected to be a low-scoring game.  And why would people expect this to be a low-scoring game with the following stats:

• Army:  Scores 30.8 points per game.  Allows 22.3 points per game.
• Navy:  Scores 39.3 points per game.  Allows 24.2 points per game.

I think the reason here is that both teams run the triple option offense and most of their opponents only see that offense once a year meaning it is a “novelty” for the opposing defense.  In this game, both defenses will have seen this offense every day in practice.  Hence the thought that this will be a low scoring affair.  Take another look at those stats for Army.  On average, they are 8 points better than their opponents and yet their record is only 5-7.

I am definitely going to tune into this game tomorrow; it is always one of the more enjoyable games of the year.  As the last college football entry in a Reduced Quantity Six-Pack, give me Army plus the points.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

            Earlier this week, I was on the subject of sub-.500 teams making the NFL playoffs and said that I remembered the Seahawks making the playoffs in that state about 15 years ago and that I did not recall another instance of that happening.  Soon after that statement was posted, I got an email from the long-term reader in Houston who is a Sports Historian Extraordinaire.  Here is the entirety of his communique:

“Carolina won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record about 5 years ago.”

Actually, it was not “about 5 years ago”; it was “exactly 5 years ago” in 2014.  Thank you for the addendum here…

At the end of last season, the NY Jets fired Todd Bowles.  Some commentators found justification for that move in the fact that Bowles is a “defense guy” and what the Jets needed now was an “offense guy” to jump start the development of Sam Darnold as their franchise QB.  That makes a modicum of sense unless you remember that some “defense guys” such as Bill Parcells, Marv Levy, Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick found assistant coaches who could develop young QBs…

In any event, the Jets fired Bowles and hired Adam Gase who was offensive coordinator for the Broncos in the 2013 season when Peyton Manning set a bunch of offensive records.  [Manning was 37 in that season and it was his 14^th year of NFL action; somehow, I don’t think he needed much “development” in 2013.]  Gase also spent a year with the Bears as their offensive coordinator and – surprise – without Peyton Manning setting passing records, the Bears finished with an “average offense”.  Nonetheless, Gase got the head coaching job in Miami after a year with the Bears.  In 3 years with the Dolphins he posted a record of 23-25.

So … how has Sam Darnold “developed”?  It is a mixed bag comparing his rookie year to this year.  Darnold’s completion percentage is up slightly and his interception percentage is also up slightly.  His yards per attempt are up slightly and his yards per catch are down slightly.  His passing yards per game are up slightly and his QB Rating is down slightly.  Just as it would be wrong to say that Adam Gase has had a deleterious effect on Sam Darnold, it is equally wrong to conclude that Adam Gase has “jump-started” Darnold’s development.

[Aside:  Adam Gase’s QB in Miami was Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins were a .500 team then.  This year – separated from Adam Gase – Tannehill leads the NFL in QB Rating at 118.5.  If you don’t believe that stat, Google is your friend…]

Here are a few Highlights from last week’s NFL action:

• The Titans beat the Raiders 42-21 after the game had been tied 21-21 at the half.  The Titans have gone 6-1 since inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB and now are tied with the Texans in the AFC South.
• Jameis Winston threw for 456 yards and 4 TDs as the Bucs beat the Colts 38-35.  (However, see below …)
• Devlin “Duck” Hodges led the Steelers to a road win in Arizona.  That win kept the Steelers in the #2 wildcard slot in the AFC.  If “Duck” gets them to the playoffs, he may start a “Duck Dynasty” in Pittsburgh.
• The Rams’ defense made Russell Wilson look mortal and the Rams’ offense suddenly looked like the Rams’ offense from a year ago.  They beat Seahawks handily 28-12.

Here are a few Lowlights from last week’s NFL action:

• The Raiders got their doors blown off by the Titans.  About month ago, the Raiders were 6-4 and one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West with a game against the Chiefs upcoming.  Since then, they have lost 3 in a row by a combined score of 116-33.
• Jameis Winston threw 3 INTs but the Bucs overcame that in beating the Colts.  (However, see above …)
• The Dolphins scored 21 points – – on 7 field goals and no TDs.  They lost the game to Jets 22-21 and coach Brian Flores was mad because he thought an officiating call cost him the game.  Excuse me – – 7 field goals and no TDs and it was the officials who cost you the game?
• The Texans lost to Broncos and fell into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans.  How can you lose that game at home to a rookie QB leading a mediocre-at-best team?
• The Jags lost to the Chargers 45-10.   So … maybe Gardner Minshew is not the answer at QB in Jax…
• The Pats’ offense was AWOL yet again.  The problem there is simple…they do not have enough good receivers to make their short passing game work because no one is a real deep threat.  Far be it from me to second guess Bill Belichick when it comes to personnel moves, but why is Josh Gordon on the Seahawks’ roster and not the Patriots’ roster?
• The Cowboys’ offense drove 75 yards on the opening drive for a TD – – then went into hibernation.  Meanwhile the Dallas defense gave up 24 unanswered points to the Bears and the Cowboys lost 31-24.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

With the Ravens’ win over the Jets last night, the Ravens have clinched a playoff slot as the AFC North champions.  With their 12-2 record to date, the Ravens are also in the lead to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Tampa Bay – 3.5 at Detroit (45.5):  I do believe that the Bucs are the better team top to bottom here; the Bucs are mediocre, and the Lions are bad.  My problem is that I have no idea which incarnation of Jameis Winston will get off the team bus in Ford Field on Sunday. What I do know is that Matt Stafford will be in street clothes on the sidelines for this game.  Since Stafford went down, the Lions are 0-5 and are averaging less than 17 points per game.

Philly – 4.5 at Washington (39):  This spread opened at 6 points and has been slowly receding all week long.  If you watched the first half of the Eagles/Giants game on Monday, you would have to wonder how the Eagles could possibly be favored over any other pro team by 6 points.  If you watched the second half – and the OT – you would have to wonder why the opening spread was only 6 points.  Just in case you were wondering, Eagles’ RB, Boston Scott, was born in Baton Rouge, LA.  This could be a ‘trap game” for the Eagles because next week they play the Cowboys and it could be for all the marbles in the NFC East.

Chicago at Green Bay – 4 (40):  The spread here opened at 6.5 points and has been sagging all week.  The Packers are 10-3 on the season but the Packers’ offense has been lethargic – to be polite about it – since late October when they put up 42 points on the Raiders.  The Bears’ defense in 2019 is not nearly as ferocious as it was in 2018, but the Bears only yield 17.8 points per game.  I don’t know if Mitchell Trubisky is up to the task of winning a game in Lambeau Field, but I would not be shocked by a win for the Bears here.

New England – 10 at Cincy (41.5):  There is a modicum of “intrigue” here even though the Pats are 10-3 and the Bengals are 1-12.  However, not enough “intrigue” to get me to watch this one…

Houston at Tennessee – 3 (51.5):  The Total Line opened at 47.5 and shot up to this level rather quickly.  This is my Game of the Week.  The Titans are hot; the Texans are coming off a loss at home to the Broncos who started a rookie QB on the road for the first-time last week.  The Texans’ pass defense ranks 31^st in the NFL this morning and Ryan Tannehill could have a huge game here.  My only real concern is that the Titans historically play up to or down to the level of their opponent.  The winner here will lead the AFC South division race and these two teams will meet again in two weeks to close out the season.  I’ll put the Titans in this week’s Diminished Six-Pack and lay the points.

Seattle – 6 at Carolina (49):  Seattle is coming off a big loss to the Rams; the Panthers are in free-fall.  This is a “body-clock game” for the Seahawks but here is why they are favored by 6.5 points on the road:

• The Seahawks love to run the ball with a power running game.
• The Panthers give up 5.5 yards per rushing attempt.

The Seahawks have been uncharacteristically good on the road this year with a 6-1 record in those games.  I’ll put the Seahawks in this week’s Short Six-Pack to win and cover.

Denver at KC – 10 (45):  The spread opened at 13 points and dropped to this level quickly.  The Broncos have won 2 in a row with rookie QB, Drew Lock under center.  Is he ready to win a game in Arrowhead Stadium against Patrick Mahomes and Company?  I doubt it.  The often-maligned Chiefs’ defensive unit has held their last 3 opponents (Chargers, Raiders and Pats) to an average of 14 points per game.

Miami at Giants – 3.5 (46.5):  Clearly this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Maybe you can find some interest here if you call this the Geriatric Bowl:

• Eli Manning will start at QB for the Giants at age 38.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB for the Dolphins at age 37.

If you can come up with something about this game more interesting than that, let me know…

(Sun Nite) Buffalo at Pittsburgh “pick ‘em” (37):  This game was flexed into the Sunday Night Football slot for this week.  If you want to call this one your Game of the Week, I will put up only the mildest of protests.  As of this morning, these are the two AFC wildcard teams; the Bills can still catch the Pats in the AFC East but the only path to the playoffs for the Steelers is via the wildcard.  It is a big game for both teams here; I have a social commitment on Sunday evening, so I am grateful for the inventor of the DVR…

• The last time the Bills beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a regular season game, the leading rusher in the game was OJ Simpson.  He gained 227 yards and the year was 1975…

Steelers’ WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster had to leave practice with an undisclosed injury earlier this week and has been “downgraded” to questionable for this game.  Not good news for Steelers’ fans…

Jax at Oakland – 6.5 (46.5): The spread opened at 4 points and the Total Line opened at 44.5 points.  The adjustment to this level happened gradually over the week.  Barring a construction workers’ strike or an earthquake in Las Vegas, this will be the final game for the Raiders in Oakland – – unless of course they return there in the 2039 NFL season.  [Somewhere in the cosmos, Al Davis is smiling at that thought.]

Raiders’ RB Josh Jacobs missed last week’s game with a “shoulder injury” but now we know it is a “shoulder fracture” and yet, he is reportedly taking pain killers to see if he can play in this game.  The Raiders are not making the playoffs this year; risking further serious injury to their stud running back in this game against a miserable Jags’ team would be monumentally stupid.  Since October 27 – when the Jags beat the Jets 29-15 – the Jags have not scored more than 20 points in a game.  Their record since then is 0-5 and they are averaging only 11.4 points per game in those 5 losses.

Cleveland – 3 at Arizona (49):  No nonsense here.  This is the So-What Game of the Week.

Atlanta at SF – 10.5 (48):  The spread opened the week at 12 points and the Total Line was at 45.5 points.  There has been plenty of line movement here.  It is a big game for the Niners relative to their playoff seeding; it is a big game for Falcons’ coach Dan Quinn relative to his continued employment as the Falcons’ head coach in 2020.

Rams at Dallas – 1.5 (48.5):  The spread for this game is all over the map this morning.  The spread opened with the Cowboys as 3-point favorites; that lasted less than a couple of hours but as of this morning I can find the game as “pick ‘em” at one of the offshore sportsbooks and with the Cowboys favored by 1 point, 1.5 points and 2 points in other places.  Here is a trend to consider:

• The Rams have a winning record at 8-5 as of this morning.
• The Cowboys have 7 losses this year and 6 of those losses have come against teams with winning records as of this morning.
• In 2019, the Cowboys have zero wins against teams with a winning record as of this morning.

If my calculations are correct, the Rams would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss here.  The Cowboys’ offense has sputtered the last 3 weeks against top-shelf defenses (Pats, Bills, Bears) and now face a better-than-average Rams’ defense.  I think the wrong team is favored.  I’ll put the Rams plus the points in this week’s Abbreviated Six-Pack.

Minnesota – 1.5 at Chargers (45):  The spread for this game is also all over the map.  The opening spread was 3 points; and this morning, you can find it everywhere from “pick ‘em” to 2 points.  This was originally the Sunday Night game until the flexing decision put the Bills/Steelers game in that slot.

(Mon Nite):  Indy at New Orleans – 9 (46.5): The Total Line here opened at 44 points.  Colts’ WR, T.Y. Hilton could be back for this game; the Colts have struggled with him on the sidelines.  The Saints have a playoff slot secured; I believe the Colts will be eliminated if they lose here – which I fully expect them to do.

Let me recall this week’s Four-Pack Masquerading as a Six-Pack:

• Army + 10.5 vs Navy
• Titans – 3 over Texans
• Seahawks – 6 over Panthers
• Rams +1.5 against Cowboys

Finally, since I used a Dwight Perry comment earlier today, let me close with another of his musings in the Seattle Times:

“A Las Vegas hospital billed the parents $2659 to pull a tiny doll’s shoe from their child’s nostril.

“Imagine what it would cost to remove Antonio Brown’s foot from his mouth.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Anthony Rendon signed on with the LA Angels for 7 years and $245M.  That is in line with Nolan Arenado’s contract (8 years and $260M) because Arenado, Rendon and Kris Bryant are the three best third basemen in MLB.  [Bryant may be a free agent later this offseason if he wins a grievance he has filed; if not he will be a free agent next year.]  Here are a couple of things that come to mind about this signing:

1. The Angels already had a good offensive lineup; adding Rendon should make it a very good lineup.  Now folks will turn their attention to the Angles pitching and ask if it is well staffed.
2. The Nats lost an important part of their infield and a big bat in the middle of the lineup.  The Nats’ philosophy appears to be to invest the big bucks in starting pitchers (Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin) and not in position players.  In two off seasons, the Nats have lost Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper from their lineup while spending big on a starting pitcher.
3. I wonder why none of the baseball poets have called out Scott Boras today.  It was less than a month ago that Boras lashed out at baseball owners for failing to spend on free agents and accusing them of colluding to keep prices down.  The baseball press covered that story and commented on it.  Now Boras has signed 3 of his free agents to humongous deals in 3 days.  Why not at least ask him now if – just maybe – he was full of excrement when last he pontificated?

Since I am writing about huge sums of money, consider the current trend in franchise values in the major sports.  Sports franchise values have always been on an uptrend, but that uptrend has become a steep climb in recent years.  The Dallas Cowboys in the NFL are valued at $5B by Forbes and that same publication also says that every NFL franchise, MLB franchise and NBA franchise is worth more than $1B.  Naturally, this means that guys rich enough to have purchased those franchises in the past are sitting on a huge potential profit should they wish to sell – along with a tidy revenue stream so long as they continue ownership.

To say there is a “dark side” to all that expanding wealth and value would be an overstatement; but there is a shady spot.  If someone like Jerry Jones decided to sell the Dallas Cowboys, he would have to find someone who could pony up something in the neighborhood of $5B – and you could easily expect Jones to seek a purchase price higher than that.  The fact is that there are not a lot of people on the planet who can do that; and if you then throw out all the folks who can afford such a thing but do not give a rat’s patootie about the NFL or US sports, the universe of potential buyers is small.

I have no intention of getting you to cry crocodile tears for franchise owners here, but lest you dismiss this as a trivial matter, consider that the NFL is considering a rule change to expand the number of potential buyers for franchises.  Currently, NFL bylaws set the debt limit for an NFL owner – the amount of money he can borrow against the team as an asset – at $350M.  That is not the total debt he/she is allowed; it is the debt limit against the team.  That number was set back when franchises were much less valuable.

In my outrageous example where Jerry Jones tries to sell the Cowboys and his asking price is a modest $5.5B (merely 10% over the Forbes valuation), it would mean that a potential buyer would have to come up with $5.15B of his own capital – along with only $350M of borrowed money – to close the deal.  The league is considering a change that would raise the debt limit to $1B in situations where the larger debt burden would exist for the purpose of buying an existing franchise.  As I understand it, this increased debt limit would not apply to current owners; those owners would not be permitted to increase their debt pledged against the franchise; the NFL is not looking to give owners a way to “pull money off the table” by this mechanism.

The NFL is not alone in this sort of thinking.  The NBA raised its debt limit from $250M to $325M about a year ago recognizing the explosion of franchise values in that league.  Recall when the NBA “forced” the sale of the LA Clippers, the valuation was set at $750M – $800M and Steve Balmer came in with a bid of $2B to acquire the team.

As I said, I don’t want you to pity the poor people who own sports franchises that they want to sell because they cannot find a buyer.  I merely want to point out that in this case, an old adage needs to be seen from a different perspective:

• Every silver lining has a cloud around it…

Regarding the latest Patriots’ controversy involving a film crew taking pics of the Bengals’ sideline during a game, I think that some of the folks writing and commenting on this matter need to clean up their language.  I have read and heard multiple folks call this action “illegal”.  Take a deep breath folks; the investigation here is not being conducted by the FBI or the local police; if and when wrongdoing is uncovered, the perpetrators will not go to trial and hence to jail if convicted.  This is a violation of NFL rules and it is the NFL doing the gumshoe work; if and when wrongdoing is uncovered, the Pats will pay a fine to the league at a minimum and perhaps lose a draft pick at the most.  Clean up the language here…

Finally, Scott Ostler of the SF Chronicle is clearly not sanguine about the direction of the SF Giants:

“Are the Giants a jinx ship, sailing into the Bermuda Triangle, a Flying Dutchman with the Titanic skipper at the helm? Quick look at the box score for the last year: Lose beloved skipper Bruce Bochy, who grows more beloved by the day … Jump into analytics with Farhan Zaidi … Hire manager Gabe Kapler, a man with a tan and baggage.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

If you watched any of the Giants/Eagles game on Monday Night Football this week, you had to notice the repeated references to the fact that the winner of the NFC East this year might not have a winning record for the season.  That same fact has been the repeated subject of more than a few segments on sports-gab shows in TV and – at least here in the DC area – on sports radio.

I recall the Seahawks making the playoffs with a 7-9 record about 15 years ago; I do not recall any other “sub-.500 teams” ever since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 12 teams in the 90s.  However, the tut-tutting about the possibility of that happening again this year needs to be put into perspective.  Consider these two facts:

1. This year’s NFC Champion must win a minimum of 7 games – unless the Eagles and Cowboys tie each other on December 22, and both lose their other remaining games.  So, the “worst record” for an NFC East team could be 6-9-1.
2. It is possible – although the chances are vanishingly small – for a team with a 3-13 record to make the NFL playoffs as a division winner and host a playoff game.

Let me explain how a 3-13 team can win a division:

• Suppose all four teams in a division lose every game they play outside the division.  Every team plays 10 games out of the division, so all the teams have an 0-10 record in those games
• Suppose also that all four teams in a division split those division games such that each team has a 3-3 record there.
• Now, all four teams will end the season at 3-13 and the NFL tiebreaker system will crown one of them as the Division Champion.
• That winner will host a playoff game; and if they miraculously go on to win their next 4 games in the playoffs, they would be Super Bowl Champions with a season record of 7-13.

Suddenly, having an NFC East champ at 7-9 doesn’t look nearly as awful as one might portray it…

Some of the colleges that recently fired their head coaches have announced replacements.  Mike Norvill goes from Memphis to Florida State; Lane Kiffin goes from FAU to Ole Miss; Sam Pittman will take over in Arkansas.  Alums at those schools are brimming with enthusiasm today; thing are surely going to change for the better.  So, I decided to take a look at how last year’s “new hires” did in their first year on the job.  I do not have an exhaustive list of every college coaching change, but these are ones that I found quickly and easily.  In alphabetical order:

• Gary Andersen – – Utah State:  His record was 7-5 this year.  Andersen is returning to Utah State after stints at “more visible programs” such as Wisconsin.  This season was not a great start but there is no embarrassment here.
• Tom Arth – – Akron:  His record was 0-12 this year – – the only Division 1-A team not to win a game this year.  There is no spin-meister alive who can make that look good.
• Walt Bell – – UMass:  His record was 1-11 this year and UMass had the worst scoring defense in the country by a wide margin.  Bell took over for Mark Whipple who had been at UMass for 5 years and had gone 4-8 in the previous 2 seasons.  This year is a giant step backwards.
• Mack Brown – – UNC:  His record was 6-6 this season but that is a significant improvement over the previous two seasons where UNC won a total of only 5 games.  Moreover, the Tar Heels were competitive in every game; only twice did they lose by as many as 7 points.  This is a significant improvement.
• Geoff Collins – – Ga Tech:  His record was 3-9 this season but he needs a longer leash than a year because he tried to run his offense with players recruited for and trained in the triple option offense favored by his predecessor, Paul Johnson.
• Ryan Day – – Ohio State:  His record was 12-0 this season.  What more is there to say here…?
• Manny Diaz – – Miami:  His record was 6-6 this season but that is a bit deceiving.  Two of those losses were to Ga Tech (see above) and then to Florida International.  I doubt that Miami alums and boosters saw 2019 as a “positive experience”.
• Chris Klieman – – Kansas State:  His record was 8-4 this season which is plenty good.  He must live with the fact that he has replaced the Godfather of Football in Manhattan KS and it will take years for the K-State faithful to let Bill Snyder’s memory even begin to fade.
• Mike Locksley – – Maryland:  His record was 3-9 this season.  After winning the first two games by a combined score of 142-20, reality set in.  After that, the only other win came at the expense of Rutgers.  Against ranked teams, Maryland was 0-4 losing by a combined score of 222-31.  If that is considered “progress” …
• Jim McElwein – – C. Michigan:  His record was 8-4 this season.  He came to C. Michigan from Florida and showed here that he can coach a bit.  Last year, C. Michigan was a SHOE Tournament team that won only 1 game.  This year, they played for the MAC Championship.  He provided a huge turnaround there.
• Les Miles – – Kansas:  His record was 3-9 this season; nonetheless, that is a small step forward from where Kansas football has been recently.  Their win over BC was a plus – – but there is still a looong way to go for the Jayhawks if they want to regain a semblance of respectability in the Big 12.
• Scott Satterfield – – Louisville:  His record was 7-5 this season.  The previous year was a disaster for the Cardinals; the record was 2-10 and they fired Bobby Petrino in November.  Satterfield came to Louisville from Appalachian State where he had winning records for 5 consecutive years.  It would be hard to argue that this was a bad hire…

Finally, here is an entry in The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm that seems appropriate for this Holiday Season:

“Dickens, Charles:  The man responsible for every lousy community-theater production of ‘A Christmas Carol’ that you ever had to sit through because your wife had a friend from work who was playing Bob Cratchit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………