Author: Jack

Friday rolled around quickly this week – – or so it seems.  So, I have fastened my seatbelt and am ready to launch another Football Friday.  I’ll start as usual with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• Spreads and Totals:              3-2-0
• Season to Date:                     24-37-2

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             1-1                   Profit = $175
• Season to Date:                     13-18               Profit = $402

Here is the final regular season result for Georgia Tech – – my “sleeper team” identified back in August before the season began.

Georgia 19  Georgia Tech 9:  The Tech defense showed up here and held the Bulldogs to only 70 yards passing in the game.  Unfortunately, the Georgia defense showed up too and held Tech to only 9 points in the game.  Tech finishes the season with a 9-3 record; Georgia is 11-1.  Tech will not play in the ACC Championship Game this week nor will it play in the CFP; however, they should get a nice bowl invitation and should be happy with a 9-win season.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

            I mentioned the ACC Championship Game above; it bears a larger mention here.  The game will involve Virginia (10-2 overall and 7-1 in conference games – – sort of) and not too many folks would have a problem with the Cavaliers participating there.  Some nitpickers might point out that a loss to NC State (also in the ACC) did not count against the Cavs’ conference record because the game took place “outside the schedule range” for conference games.  Don’t get me started on professional rule makers…!

The other team in that Championship game is Duke.  The Blue Devils finished with a conference record of 6-2 – – and so did four other ACC teams including my “sleeper team” and Miami who is the highest ranked ACC team by the CFP Selectors.  All 5 of those ACC teams have the same conference record but here are the overall records to consider:

• Miami             10-2
• Georgia Tech 9-3
• Pittsburgh      8-4
• SMU                8-4
• Duke               7-5

If you are wondering how that came to be the pairing for the ACC Championship Game let me just say that the “rule makers” in the ACC – – the same ones that did not count that loss by Virginia to NC State because of the date the game took place – – also came up with a set of rules for tiebreakers at the end of the season.

I am not a “Duke Hater”; in fact, #2 son is a Duke alum.  Notwithstanding that family tie to Duke, those tiebreaking rules make no damned sense.  Period.

Considering the CFP situation – – which of course can be modified significantly by the results of the conference championship games this weekend – – I want to offer a way to look at the selection process.

• If a coach or an AD or a University President feels the need to make a statement intended for national attention about the righteousness of that particular school’s worthiness for a CFP slot, then that team does not really belong in the tournament.
• Supreme Court Justice, Potter Stewart, famously said that he could not precisely define hard-core pornography, but that “I know it when I see it.”  Same goes for teams that truly belong in the CFP; they don’t need PR campaigns; they just belong there.

[Aside:  Here is Justice Stewart’s full statement on the matter: “I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [‘hard‑core pornography’], and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that.”]

Over in the SEC, the Championship Game pairs Alabama and Georgia via a different set of tiebreakers in use by that conference.  The matchup is strange – – but not nearly as outrageous as the one in the ACC – – so take a look:

• Georgia          7-1 in conference                    11-1 overall
• Ole Miss         7-1 in conference                    11-1 overall
• Texas A&M     7-1 in conference                    11-1 overall
• Alabama         7-1 in conference                    10-2 overall

One more confusing conference championship matchup will take place in the Mountain West with UNLV playing Boise St. for the title.  Here is how the leaders in that conference finished the season:

• UNLV                6-2 in conference                    10-2 overall
• New Mexico   6-2 in conference                    9-3 overall
• San Diego St  6-2 in conference                    9-3 overall
• Boise St           6-2 in conference                    8-4 overall

The Big-10 and the Big-12 have clear-cut participants in their Championship Game.  Indiana and Ohio State are the only two unbeaten teams in the country and they will square off probably to determine the overall #1 seed in the CFP.  BYU and Texas Tech have the best conference records and the best overall records in the Big-12 and will play for the championship there.

Looking at the conference standings in general for this season popped an ominous thought into my head regarding the future of college football.

• With the expansion of conferences to their bloated sizes of today and with the demonstrated potential for congestion at the top of the standings to cause confusion/consternation, might one of the conferences think about having a 4-team Conference Tournament to determine its champion instead of a single Championship Game?
• Do not dismiss this too quickly; there is money to be made in such a situation.

Here are comments about some of last week’s games starting in the SEC:

Ole Miss 38  Miss St. 19:  Cannot see any way that Ole Miss misses out on a CFP invitation with an 11-1 record.

Texas 27  Texas A&M 17:  One of the three unbeaten teams going into last week’s games bit the dust here.  Somehow, that loss will keep the Aggies out of the SEC Championship Game.  Will that win by the Longhorns be enough to get Texas with an overall 9-3 record a place in the CFP?

Oklahoma 17  LSU 13:  The Sooners will be hoping for a CFP invitation with their 10-2 record; LSU will prefer not to recall this season’s record of 7-5.

Vandy 45  Tennessee 24:  Vandy finishes the year at 10-2 while Tennessee finishes at 8-4.  This is the first time in school history Vandy has double-digit wins in a football season which is a big deal considering that Vandy first began playing intercollegiate football in 1890.

• Quick Quiz:  Who was the President of the United States in 1890?
• Answer Below

Alabama 27  Auburn 20:  The win gives “Bama a final record of 10-2 and participation in the SEC Championship Game – –  and the win prevents rival Auburn from becoming bowl-eligible.  Happy times in Tuscaloosa!

And in the Big-12 …

K-State 24  Colorado 14:  The Buffaloes finish at 3-9 overall and at 1-8 in conference games.   Coach Prime needs to work the Transfer Portal more effectively this year.

Iowa St. 20  Oklahoma St. 13:  The Cowboys finish at 1-11.  Oklahoma St. has not won a conference game or a game against a Division 1-A opponent since 2023.

Texas Tech 49  West Virginia 0:   Tech finishes the regular season at 11-1.

• Tech had 572 yards on offense.
• West Virginia had 180 yards.
• ‘Nuff said.

BYU 41  UCF 21:  BYU also finishes regular season at 11-1.  Their single loss was to Texas Tech by 22 points in early November.  This week is an opportunity for the Cougars to avenge that loss.

As for action in the Big-10:

Iowa 40  Nebraska 16:  Iowa scored 40 points in one game?

USC 29  UCLA 10:  There was a time when this rivalry game was also nationally interesting.  Not this year …

Oregon 26  Washington 14:  Oregon finishes 11-1 and that loss was by 10 points to undefeated Indiana.  The Huskies are 8-4 and should get a decent bowl invitation.

Penn St. 40  Rutgers 36:  Penn St. became bowl eligible with this win; Rutgers failed to become bowl-eligible with this loss.

Ohio St. 27  Michigan 9:  The Buckeyes finish at 12-0. The officiating in this game was less competent than the players in this game.

In ACC action:

Miami 38  Pitt 7:  Will that be enough for a CFP invitation to the Hurricanes?  Miami has 2 losses – – to Louisville and SMU by a total of 9 points.  In terms of “signature wins”, Miami beat Notre Dame by a field goal back in September.

BC 34  Syracuse 12:  That is only the second win of the year for BC.  Syracuse finishes at 3-9.

Duke 49  Wake Forest 32:  Both teams will go to bowl games this year.  Duke will play in the ACC Championship Game.

Virginia 27  Va Tech 7:  A big rivalry win for the Cavaliers and a final record of 10-2 overall.   Next up is the ACC Championship Game.

Cal 38  SMU 35:  If SMU had won here, they would have been in the ACC Championship Game.  SMU led 35-32 with 2 minutes left in the game – – but could not hold on.

NC State 42  UNC 19:  The “Bill Belichick Experience” was not a positive experience in Chapel Hill this year.

In the Mountain West …

UNLV 42  Nevada 17:  UNLV quietly finished the season with a 10-2 record.

Boise St. 25  Utah St. 24:  Boise St. barely eked out a win here, but it was all it needed to assure a berth in the MWC title game.

New Mexico 23  San Diego St. 17:  The  Aztecs lost 2 of their last 3 games when I looked as if they had a stranglehold on the conference standings.  That’s why you play the games …

And in games of interest to me …

North Texas 52  Temple 25:  North Texas will play for the AAC Championship next week.  North Texas has a freshman RB who has been on fire this season; in this game, Caleb Hawkins ran for 186 yards and 4 TDs.

James Madison 59  Coastal Carolina 10:  Too bad JMU and North Texas cannot play off for that CFP slot assigned to teams outside the Power-4.

Delaware 61  UTEP 31:  Delaware finishes at 6-6, which is a very good record for a team in its first season at the Division 1-A level.  Congratulations to Delaware.

La Tech 42  Missouri St. 20:  Even with a loss here, Missouri St. is bowl-eligible in their first year as a Division 1-A team with a 7-5 record.  Congratulations to Missouri St.

Middle Tenn 31  New Mexico St. 24:  This is the third win of the season for Middle Tennessee St. and it saves them from the SHOE Tournament.

Florida 40  Florida St. 21:  Both teams finish under .500 for the season and will not be involved in any bowl games.

Washington St. 32  Oregon St. 8:  Washington St. finishes the season at 6-6 and will represent the “PAC-2” in a bowl game somewhere.

• Quick Quiz Answer:  Benjamin Harrison was President of the United States in 1890

Now with the regular season at an end, it is time to award the Brothel Defense Award for 2025.  Drum roll please:

• UMass wins the award giving up 38.6 points per game in 2025.

            The Brothel Defense Award came into being in 2020; so, this is the 6^th time it has been given to a college football team.  Of those 6 times, UMass has been the “winner” of the award 3 times now (2021, 2023 and now again in 2025).  Amazing …

Next on the agenda is the seeding for the SHOE Tournament.  Remember the format here; it is an eight-team field.  The teams play one another, and the losing team must play on until there is an ultimate loser which is the SHOE Team of the season.  [SHOE is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.]

• #1 Seed:         UMass             0-12
• #2 Seed:          Charlotte         1-11
• #3 Seed:          Georgia St.      1-11
• #4 Seed:          Sam Houston  2-10
• #5 Seed           Colorado St.    2-10
• #6 Seed           BC                   2-10
• #7 Seed:          Purdue            2-10
• #8 Seed:          Oregon St.      2-10

Let the games begin …

 

NCAA Games of Interest this Week:

 

UNLV at Boise St. – 4.5 (58):  Boise St. is leaving the Mountain West for the reconstituted PAC-12; UNLV would probably like inherit the mantle as the big dog in the conference.  A win here would be a way to stake such a claim.

BYU at Texas Tech – 12.5 (50.5):  On November 8^th, Tech beat BYU 29-7 on this same field…  Both teams have strong defenses and neither team is an offensive juggernaut.  I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Georgia – 2.5 at Alabama (48):  On September 27^th, “Bama beat Georgia 24-21 at Georgia …  This is the fifth time these two teams have met in the SEC Championship Game and Alabama has won all the previous encounters.  If you believe in trends …  I am going to buck that trend and take Georgia to win and cover even in Tuscaloosa; put that in the ‘Betting Bundle”.

Duke at Virginia – 4.5 (56.5):  On November 15^th, Virginia beat Duke 34-17 at Duke …  In that game, the Cavs led by 4 TDs and took their foot off the gas.  If Duke stays in the game into the third quarter, that will mean the game is going to light up the scoreboard.  I think Duke can do that and so I’ll take this game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Indiana at Ohio St. – 3.5 (48.5):  Meaning no disrespect to any of the other conference Championship games, this is the College Game of the Week.  The winner will be the overall #1 seed in the CFP.  Ohio St. brings a defense to this game which has not given up more than 16 points in any game this season.  Indiana has posted some big numbers against lesser competition, but I wonder if they can get to 20 on this defense.  I like Ohio St. to win and cover, and I like the game to stay UNDER; put those two selections in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

 

NFL Commentary:

 

There is still a month’s worth of NFL football in the 2025 regular season, and you will need to pay close attention because playoff standings and playoff races are likely to change week by week.  Particularly in the NFC:

• In the NFC Central the Bears lead the Packers by half a game
• In the NFC South, the Bucs lead the Panthers by half a game
• In the NFC West, the Rams/Seahawks are tied with the Niners half a game behind.

By comparison, the AFC is buttoned down – – but not really:

• In the AFC North the Ravens and Steelers are tied for the lead.
• In the AFC South, the Colts/Jags are tied for the lead with the Texans 1 game behind.

In the race to the bottom, five teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs this season:

1. Cards                3-9-0
2. Giants              2-11-0
3. Raiders            2-10-0
4. Titans               1-11-0
5. Saints               2-10-0

[Aside: Is it a “race to the bottom” or a “freefall to the bottom?  Just wondering …]

Two years ago, the Eagles ran off to a 10-1 record and then the wheels came off as they lost 5 of their last 6 regular season games and made an early playoff exit.  Eagles’ fans will not be happy about this, but I get the same sort of feeling about this year’s team; there is no energy and there is no emotion surrounding the 2025 team.  As of today, the Eagles are 8-4-0; they are a short favorite on the road this week against the Chargers and should be about a touchdown favorite next week against the Raiders.  They have two games against the Commanders – – usually hard-fought affairs – – and a game against the Bills.  Theoretically, the Eagles could go 13-4-0 for the season; I will not be shocked if they go 10-7-0.

Here are comments on some of last week’s games:

Pats 33  Giants 15:  The symmetry of the universe was conserved in this matchup.  The Pats were 10-2-0 going in and the Giants were 2-10-0 going in.  The mirror image of those two team records was preserved in this game.

Bucs 20  Cards 17:  How many more one-score games can the Cards lose this year?  If I have counted correctly, they have lost seven one-score games so far with five games left to play.

Jets 27  Falcons 24:  The Jets are 3-9-0 which is not a good record by any measure – – but even after they traded away two of their best defensive players – – Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner – – the team defense keeps them in most games.  Can it be that the Jets are poised to ”emerge” as a solid football organization/team?  The Falcons just stink…

Texans 20  Colts 16:  Do not sleep on the Texans.  If that offense can just find ways not to blow games into oblivion, this team can get it done.  The Texans’ defense is absolutely for real.

Jags 25  Titans 3:  The Jags aspire to be a playoff team.  Playoff teams dispatch inferior teams handily – – just as the Jags did here.

Panthers 31  Rams 28:  This result made the races in the AFC South and in the NFC West much more interesting.

Niners 26  Browns 8:  Shedeur Sanders got a win in his first NFL start two weeks ago.  The message to him in this game was “Welcome to the NFL, Shedeur!”

Dolphins 21  Saints 17:  This was the third straight win for the Dolphins.  The Saints have the worst point differential in the NFC at minus-113 points.

Seahawks 26  Vikes 0:  Here is the Bottom Line:

• The Vikes have a serious QB problem.  JJ McCarthy is nowhere near ready to be a starting QB in the NFL and his backups are UFL-level QBs.
• The Vikes won 14 regular season games last year.  The Vikes will struggle to win even half of that number in 2025.

Bills 26  Steelers 7:  The Steelers too have a major QB problem.  Aaron Rodgers has broken bones in his left hand/arm that limits the sorts of things he can do on handoffs and pitchouts.  Mason Rudolph cannot be counted on to make the offense ambulatory let alone efficient and effective.

Broncos 27  Commanders 26:  The football gods have smiled on the Broncos from the outset this season.  The Commanders are experiencing what it was like to be an opponent of the Commanders in 2024 when the Commanders pulled rabbits out of hats to win games week after week.

Chargers 31  Raiders 14:  The Chargers keep their playoff hopes alive with wins like this.  The Raiders are simply on a lower level of existence for now.

Bears 24  Eagles 15:  If someone described the Eagles’ offense in this game as “somnambulant”, that would be heaping undeserved praise on that unit.  The Bears now have the overall #1 spot in the NFC and I certainly did not have that on my 2025 NFL BINGO Card back in August 2025.

Packers 31  Lions 24:  The Lions’ record in 2025 is not nearly what the Lions’ record was in 2024.  The reason is that the Lions’ OL is not nearly what the Lions’ OL was in 2024 in terms of offensive dominance.

Cowboys 31  Chiefs 28:  To be sure of a playoff slot in the AFC, the Chiefs need to win out – – and that is not likely to happen.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won 3 games in a row and much of the reason for that is their upgraded defense.

Bengals 32  Ravens 14:  The Ravens look almost as out-of-sync/ discombobulated as do the Eagles.  They should win the AFC North but keep finding ways to thwart that outcome. Oh, and just for the record, the Bengals are not yet eliminated from the AFC playoffs as the division winner or as a wildcard.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

This will be the final weekend with teams on BYE Weeks for the 2025 NFL season:

• Giants 2-11-0:  Fans in NYC are probably coming up with scenarios where the Giants manage to lose while on a BYE Week.
• Niners 9-4-0:  Despite injuries galore – – particularly on the defense – – the Niners continue to hang in the NFC West race where they trail the Rams and the Seahawks by only half a game.
• Panthers 7-6-0:  The Panthers can do two things that winning football teams tend to do:
  • • They run the ball well
    • They stop the run well.
• Pats 11-2-0:  Undoubtedly, this is the biggest surprise team of the year; the Pats are likely to win their division and might be the overall #1 seed in the playoffs after winning exactly 4 games in 2024 and being outscored then by a total of 128 points.

            In last night’s game, the Lions shredded the Cowboys’ defense and cruised to a two-touchdown win.  That loss significantly damages the Cowboys’ momentum toward a playoff slot this season; the Cowboys had been playing well behind a much-improved defense – – until last night.  Jahmyr Gibbs scored 3TDs and Jared Goff threw for more than 300 yards against that defense and made it look easy while doing it.  That game was not a “playoff game” in the sense that the Cowboys can go home and plan for next season, but it was an important result for both teams.

Just a foreshadowing here; this will be the largest “Betting Bundle” of the season to date.

Commanders at Vikes – 2 (42.5):  I thought about this as the Dog-Breath Game for just a moment.  How can the Vikes be favored over another pro team after scoring zero TDs in the last 8 quarters?  The Commanders are a hollow shell, but they are better than a JJ McCarthy led offense; the wrong team is favored here.  I like the Commanders to win straight up here so I’ll take them plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins – 3.5 at Jets (41.5):  This game also attracted some Dog-Breath thinking.  I don’t know if the Dolphins’ 3 game win streak here is enough to save Coach Mike McDaniel’s job and I also doubt that a minor uptick in interest for either franchise here is materially important.  Historically, the Dolphins do not play well in cold weather games; the forecast for the weekend in NYC is for temps around 40 degrees which is on the cusp of “cold weather”.

Titans at Browns – 3.5 (34):  This one here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  I doubt that I need to explain that label any further.  Just look at that Total Line …

Steelers at Ravens – 5.5 (43.5):  The Steelers have been up and down all season; the Ravens likewise.  What surprises me the most is the sloppiness of the Ravens; that is not the hallmark of John Harbaugh-coached teams.  I think this will be a game of mistakes; the team that makes the fewest will win.  Because I think that is the way the game will unfold, I chose not to call this the Game of the Week even though the two teams are tied for the lead in the AFC North.  The Ravens stunk out the joint at home last week; are they going to do that two weeks in a row?

Seahawks – 7 at Falcons (44.5):  The Falcons are a mess; the Seahawks can be very good or they can be mediocre.  I think the Falcons’ offense will have significant difficulty moving the ball and scoring on the Seahawks’ defense – – even though this is a body-clock game for the Seahawks.

Colts – 1.5 at Jags (47):  This was a candidate for Game of the Week; the two teams are tied atop the AFC South.  Here are some stats to consider if you are thinking about a wager here:

• Colts have lost 3 of their last 4 games.
• Colts have not won in Jax since 2014.  [Really!]
• Jags lead the NFL in rushing defense; Colts are 6^th in the NFL in rushing offense
• Colts score 29.8 points per game; Jags allow 21.1 points per game.

Bears at Packers – 6.5 (44.5):  This is the Game of the Week.  The Bears have the best NFC record as of this morning and have won 5 in a row.  The Packers are a half-game behind the Bears and have won 3 in a row.  Hope this game is on in your viewing area; it should be a good one.

Saints at Bucs – 8.5 (42):  The Bucs are in a race for a playoff spot; suffice it to say that the Saints have no similar motivation here.

Broncos – 7.5 at Raiders (40.5):  The Broncos have a stranglehold on the AFC West race; the only “stranglehold” Raiders’ fans might be interested in would be one applied to the roster constructors for this year’s squad.  The Broncos’ front seven on defense against the Raiders’ OL are a mismatch.

Rams – 7.5 at Cards (48):  Here is yet another game between a team pushing for the playoffs and a team whose playoff hopes vanished about a month ago.  As noted above, the Cards have lost 7 one-score games this year; I suspect this will be a two-score game or worse; give me the Rams to win and cover; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bengals at Bills – 5.5 (53.5):  The Bengals are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, and the Bills have not played well for about a month now.

(Sun Nite) Texans at Chiefs – 3.5 (42):  This could be the coup de grace for the Chiefs in 2025.  A loss for the Texans would be similarly disastrous.  I think the Texans are on a roll, so I’ll take them here plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Eagles – 2 at Chargers (41):  On the assumption that the Broncos take care of business against the Raiders on Sunday, this game is important to the Chargers because they would trail those Broncos by 3 games with a loss here.  This is a big game for the Eagles too as they try to find a way to rid themselves of a malaise that has settled over the team.

So, let me review this week’s eight-item “Betting Bundle”:

1. Ohio St. – 3.5 over Indiana
2. Ohio St./Indiana UNDER 48.5
3. Georgia – 2.5 over Alabama
4. BYU/Texas Tech UNDER 50.5
5. Duke/Virginia OVER 57.5
6. Commanders +2 against Vikes
7. Rams – 7.5 over Cards
8. Texans +3.5 against Chiefs

            As if that were not enough, here are two Money Line Parlays:

• Browns @ minus-200
• Seahawks @ minus-330
• Rams @ minus-410                           $100 wager to win $143

And …

• Texans @ +165
• Broncos @ minus-400                      $100 wager to win $231

Finally, let’s hear from Bill Parcells:

“Never discount stupidity as being a factor, because it’s always in there somewhere.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Finally, after weeks of backing-and-forthing and rumors/counter-rumors and various declarations of inside intrigue, Lane Kiffin will become the head football coach at LSU.  Fans in the SEC can now sit back and resume their focus on their favorite team and leave the coaching intrigues alone until sometime next year when it will blossom one more time.

Lane Kiffin is – to say the least – a polarizing figure.  He has been a successful coach but not all of his relationships with the organizations that had hired him were harmonious.  He has been referred to as a diva coach and as having a “scratchy” personality/nature.  After Kiffin and USC “chose to go in different directions” in 2013, Kiffin was not highly sought after for head coaching vacancies; he took the job as offensive coordinator for Nick Saban at Alabama and had to wait four years before he got a head coaching offer – – at Florida Atlantic which is a step down from the likes of the SEC and/or USC.  But he did well at FAU and got the job at Ole Miss in 2020.

Ole Miss was not an SEC powerhouse, but Kiffin made them more than merely respectable; they were competitive with the rest of the conference on a routine basis.  He went to Oxford, MS with a rehabbed reputation and delivered on field success there.  That made him a desirable commodity for a school that aspired to national attention/prominence and LSU fits that description to a tee.  Some folks think Kiffin’s departure now with his Ole Miss team sure to be in the CFP and with an outside shot at a national championship just proves that he is a flawed human being with no loyalty in his core.

Maybe that is the case; I don’t have any way to know that.  However, I do recognize that he did for Ole Miss what they wanted him to do and made Ole Miss relevant in college football.  Having delivered on that aspect of his employment there, what is wrong with him seeking an opportunity that he considers more beneficial for him and his family?  It seems to me that too many people looked at the LSU/Ole Miss/Florida coaching triangle and thought with their glands instead of their brains.  Take the emotion out of the situation and it would not have been more than a bit of nothing instead of a month-long soap opera situation.

Moving on … but staying with college football coaching.  James Franklin was hired by Va Tech after he was fired by Penn State and according to reports yesterday and today, he has taken with him a dozen of the top recruits he had lured to Penn State with him on a journey to Blacksburg, VA.  One report I read said that “Penn State is in a free fall,” and that they will not be able to recruit well because they don’t have a coach and just got turned down by one they were pursuing.

Here is another glandular thinking situation.  The sky is not falling; in fact, what Penn State fans need to do is to inoculate themselves to irrational exuberance when the new coach arrives and sets sail for the 2026 college football season.  The Penn St. schedule next year is not a killer by any means; the new coach might show up and win 9 games and be thought of as a “football genius”.  Take a look at that schedule and assess its degree of difficulty:

• Out of conference games are Marshall, Temple and Buffalo – – all in “Happy Valley”.
• Big-10 games do NOT include Ohio St., Indiana or Oregon.
• Big-10 road games are at Northwestern Maryland, Michigan and Washington.
• Big-10 home games are against Minnesota, Purdue, Rutgers, USC and Wisconsin.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is horrendously difficult, I would put that schedule on the scale at 2.0.  In fact, if all the handwringing and gnashing of teeth continue to expand, I might make Penn State my “sleeper team” for 2026.

Finally, here is a line I heard from a stand-up comedienne over the weekend:

“I am still trying to get my head around the fact that ‘Take Out’ can mean food, dating, – – or murder.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

Back in the early days of Saturday Night Live, Chevy Chase was part of the mock news segment of the show.  After the real news media had been reporting for months that Generalissimo Francisco Franco of Spain was on his deathbed, Franco actually died.  Chevy Case for weeks after that event “reported” that “Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.”

We may have had the obverse of that situation over the weekend.  The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the one of the Hall members – – Lem Barney – – had died.  Then there were reports from Barney’s family that Lem Barney was still alive and the Hall of Fame retracted its announcement.  Perhaps on the mock news segment next week for Saturday Night Live they can report that “Lem Barney is still alive.”

And if they want to take it up a notch [Hat Tip to Emeril Lagasse], they can have the band playing the Bee Gees old hit, Stayin’ Alive in the background.

Moving on …  Recall those arrests and charges against two NBA players and NBA coach Chauncy Billups regarding gambling and rigged poker games to fleece wealthy gamblers, those actions have been moving along quietly:

• Damon Jones has pleaded not guilty to the charges against him.  Jones stands accused of giving insider information to a “co-conspirator” who then used that information to place winning bets on NBA games.  Jones is also accused of luring victims to the alleged fixed poker games.
• Terry Rozier has not yet had a court date to enter his plea, but I suspect he too will enter a plea of not guilty.  Rozier is charged with participating in a scheme to cash proposition bets on his performance in game against the New Orleans Pelicans in 2023 where he took himself out of the game early on with a supposed foot injury.
• Chauncey Billups entered his not guilty plea last week; he is accused of luring people to the rigged poker games run by organized crime, and he might also be involved in the business of sharing inside information with bettors as a coach in the league and not as a player.

It is to be expected that Billups’ lawyer would assert that the charges against his client are ridiculous and unfounded; I suspect that criminal defense attorneys have an encyclopedia full of such statements that they draw on when needed.  Here is the one used by Billups’ representative:

“To believe that Chauncey Billups did what the federal government is accusing him of is to believe that he would risk his hall-of-fame legacy, his reputation, and his freedom.  He would not jeopardize those things for anything, let alone a card game.

“Furthermore, Chauncey Billups has never and would never gamble on basketball games, provide insider information, or sacrifice the trust of his team and the League, as it would tarnish the game he has devoted his entire life to.”

In terms of “reputation” and “legacy”, these three men have already placed those things in jeopardy in the court of public opinion.  The Feds are not nearly perfect in terms of charging people with crimes and then proving that they committed those crimes – – but where there is smoke there is fire and this case has already involved more than 30 arrests and charges.  It is difficult to believe that so many allegations against so many people are nothing more than happenstance or some sort of humongous misunderstanding of a set of events.

Switching gears but staying with the NBA …  Did you realize that the regular season is almost 25% over?  Teams have played about 20 games for the 25/26 regular season.  There are some positive and negative findings in the standings this morning.  Here are some of the positive ones:

1. The Pistons have the best record in the East at 16-4.
2. The rebuilding Celtics are 11-9.
3. The Thunder lead in the West at 20-1 – – having won 12 games in a row.
4. The Lakers are 15-4 – despite only having Lebron James play in 4 games.

And here are some of the negative ones:

1. The Clippers are 5-15 – – despite having Kawai Leonard for half of their games
2. The injured Pacers are only 4-16.
3. The Wizards are 2-16 – – how did they win twice already?

Finally, this from H. L. Mencken:

“One smart reader is worth a thousand boneheads.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

            The rhythm of Football Friday becomes highly internalized by this point in the football season; so, it feels very strange to do a Football Friday on a Wednesday.  All the data are not in; I have not made up my mind on what to do or say about football matters; I want more time.  But time is not going to be available this week so mark this down as Football Friday on a Wednesday.

[Aside: With just a quick glance at the calendar, I note that both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day will fall on Thursdays this year and that means there will be more Wednesday offerings of this type.  C’est la vie …]

Starting off on a positive note, last week’s “Betting Bundle” turned out well:

• Spreads and Totals:              4-1-0                Good!
• Season to Date:                     21-35-2            Not Good!

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             2-1                   Profit = $258                Good
• Season to Date:                     12-17               Profit = $227                Okay

            The Linfield University Wildcats did not receive an at-large invitation to the Division III college football playoffs this year; they finished second in the Northwest Conference and only the conference winner is guaranteed a playoff slot.  Nonetheless, the Wildcats finished the season with a record of 7-2 which keep alive the school’s streak of winning seasons in football that began in 1956.  Congratulations, Wildcats!

My college football “sleeper team” did not do well last week; Georgia Tech took on Pitt in an important ACC game; Here is the result:

Pitt 42  Ga Tech 28:  Early in the second quarter of this one, Pitt led 28-0; there are no moral victories in top-shelf college football, but at least the Yellowjackets did not curl up in a ball and take a beating.  This was the second conference loss for Tech this year and it leaves them behind Virginia, Pitt and SMU all of which only have 1 conference loss in 2025.  It looks as if Tech will not be part of the ACC Championship Game and/or the CFP, but their record so far in 2025 is 9-2 and they should get an upscale bowl invitation.

 

College Football Commentary:

 

The TV show, Cops, had a theme song that ran:

“Bad boys, bad boys…

Whatcha want, whatcha want”

Whatcha gonna do

When Sheriff John Brown come for you?

Well, “Sheriff John Brown” was busy with the college football world over the past several days.  Let me start with the Georgia Bulldogs where offensive lineman Nyier Daniels was dismissed from the team after he was arrested last Sunday on “multiple felony and misdemeanor charges” related to an incident where he fled from the authorities.  Adding to the excitement here, Daniels’ mother was also arrested, and she was charged with one felony and five misdemeanors related to the same incident.  According to the police report on this “incident” obtained by ESPN:

“… an officer stopped [Daniels’ mother] for running a stop sign and that Daniels then passed the officer at more than 100 mph in a 25-mph zone. The officer left [Daniels’ mother] to pursue Daniels, and [Daniels’ mother] allegedly used her vehicle to block the officer’s supervisor from joining in the chase.”

And that “incident” is the mild one from last weekend …  UAB was to take on USF last weekend; it would be a game for UAB in a frustrating season that had them with a record of 3-7 with no hope of bowl eligibility.  Not to worry, the Blazers found themselves a way to inject excitement into the certainty of a down season of football.  From a report at The Athletic:

“UAB defensive lineman Daniel Mincey faces two criminal complaints after being arrested Saturday on suspicion of stabbing two teammates, according to court records.

“Mincey, 20, is accused of stabbing fellow defensive linemen JaSire Peterson and Joshua Underwood with a knife, according to complaints filed Sunday in the district court of Jefferson County, Ala. He faces one complaint of attempted murder and another of first-degree assault. His bond was set at $90,000.”

The school had no comment on the matter except to say that the two victims were in stable condition in a hospital.  Most of the UAB players voted to play the game which was to honor the graduating seniors in the program; as expected, UAB was not of the same caliber of USF and lost the game 48-18.

• Bad boys, bad boys,
• Whatcha gonna do
• When they come for you?

There was another college football incident over the weekend that did not involve the police in any way but sure seems to indicate that frustration with a losing season can certainly manifest itself in despicable behaviors.  Here is a headline from CBSSports.com over the weekend:

“Colorado State suspends quarterback, lineman for spitting on Boise State players”

Colorado St. is 2-9 this year and has been on my radar screen for the SHOE Tournament.  The Rams played Boise St. last Saturday and lost 49-21.  Their freshman QB and a senior offensive guard have been removed from the team after both spit on opposing players during that shellacking.  Colorado St. has one game left to play this season this weekend against Air Force; it is a rivalry game with the schools about an hour’s drive from each other on I-25.

On a much more positive/optimistic note, I went through the conference standings looking for notable college football teams that have 5 wins on the books for the season and 1 game left to play.  Those teams have a chance to make it to a minor bowl game with a win and there is only one straw left to grasp.  If I have counted correctly there are 11 teams that fit my description:

1. Auburn
2. Baylor
3. Florida St.
4. Kansas
5. Kansas St.
6. Kentucky
7. Mississippi St.
8. Penn St.
9. Rutgers
10. UCF
11. Washington St.

And just to add some spice to the schedule, Penn St. visits Rutgers for the final game of this season for both teams.  The winner will be bowl eligible; the loser will not; that is the finality of the regular season schedule for those two Big-10 teams.

Here are comments on some of last week’s games starting in the Big-10:

Northwestern 38  Minnesota 35:  Northwestern is bowl eligible.

Oregon 42  USC 27:  The Ducks are 10-1 and should be guaranteed a CFP slot; USC had an outside shot at the CFP had they won this game, but this is the Trojans’ third loss of the year…

Penn St. 37  Nebraska 10:  As noted above, the Nittany Lions are now 5-6 and could get a bowl invite with one more win.

Here are some ACC contests:

NC St. 21  Florida St. 11:  The Seminoles need to win this week to get a bowl invitation.  The Wolfpack is now bowl eligible with this win.  For those of you who are into numerology, this final score – – 21-11 – – happened on 11/21.

Stanford 31  Cal 10:  At least the Cardinal won “The Game” …

Duke 32 UNC 25:  No bowl game this year for the Tar Heels; however, this win made the Blue Devils bowl eligible.  The margin of victory came about on a trick play.   With Duke trailing 25-24, Duke lined up a 45-yard field goal to take the lead – except the holder took the snap and flipped it to the kicker who ran the ball all the way to the UNC 1 yardline.  That led to the deciding TD and a 2-point conversion for the Blue Devils in the game.

Notre Dame 70  Syracuse 7:  The score was 49-0 at halftime …

Now for the SEC …

Oklahoma 17  Mizzou 6:  Mizzou outgained the Sooners slightly here, but this was a defensive game from the start.  Oklahoma punted 9 times in the game; Mizzou punted 7 times and ended two other drives by throwing an INT.  Oh yeah, Oklahoma blocked a field goal try too.

Texas 52  Arkansas 37:  The good news for Arkansas here is they didn’t lose a heartbreaker of a game; Texas dominated this one from start to finish.

Tennessee 31  Florida 11:  Florida is 3-8 this year and is hoping to find a savior as its new head football coach.  This was the first win for Tennessee in Gainesville since 2003; that was in the first term of George W. Bush.

Vandy 45  Kentucky 17:  Vandy is now 9-2 for the season.  The last time Vandy won 9 games in a season was in … wait for it … 1915.  Woodrow Wilson was in his first term as US President in 1915.

Moving to the Big-12:

Utah 51  K-State 47:  The Utes are lurking in the conference standings with 2 conference losses; BYU and Texas Tech lead the conference with one conference loss each.  K-State rushed for 472 yards in the game and still lost.  The two teams combined for 764 yards rushing in the game.

UCF 17  Oklahoma St. 14:  The Cowboys led 14-0 at halftime; it looked as if they would actually get a win over a Division 1-A team for the first time since 2023.  Not happening …

Arizona St. 42  Colorado 17:  The Sun Devils gained 588 yards on offense in this game.  Coach Prime needs to focus on getting some defenders from the portal next season.

BYU 26  Cincy 14:  This win keeps BYU in contention for the Big-12 Championship Game and this loss by Cincy takes them out of consideration for that game.

And in random games that interested me:

Old Dominion 45  Georgia Southern 10:  ODU is now 8-3 and has a big win over VA Tech this season.  They should get a nice bowl invitation.

James Madison 24  Washington St.:  JMU is now 9-1 and I think they should get more attention from the CFP Selectors.

San Diego St. 25  San Jose St. 3:  The Aztecs are the only Mountain West team with only 1 conference loss

Boise St. 49  Colorado St. 21:  Over and above the “spitting incidents” here (see above), this win keeps Boise St with only 2 conference losses in MWC play.

UNLV 38  Hawaii 10:  UNLV is also a team with only 2 conference losses in the MWC – – and this loss dropped Hawaii from championship possibilities since it was their third conference loss.

UConn 48  FAU 45:  The Huskies led 24-3 at the end of the first quarter and held on to win their 9^th game of the year.

Nevada 13  Wyoming 7:  With this win, Nevada avoids the SHOE Tournament.

New Mexico St. 34  UTEP 31:  This was a strange game.  UTEP led 21-0 at the end of the first quarter.  At halftime the score was tied 21-21.  UTEP led 31-27 with less than a minute to play – – and lost the game.  The two teams combined for almost 900 yards on offense.

Middle Tennessee 31  Sam Houston 17:  Might this be a SHOE Tournament preview?

Ohio 42  UMass 14:  UMass is still winless at 0-11 for the 2025 season.  The Minutemen were outgained in this game 391 yards to 215 yards.  Of Ohio’s 391 yards on offense, 363 of those yards came running the football 57 times for an average of 6.4 yards per carry.  In addition, three UMass turnovers did not help at all…

Here is the penultimate listing of teams in danger of being named to the SHOE Tournament:

• Air Force                     3-8
• Boston College           1-10
• Colorado St.                2-9
• Georgia St.                  1-10
• La-Monroe                   3-8
• Middle Tennessee       2-9
• Oklahoma St.              1-10
• Oregon St.                  2-9
• Sam Houston              2-9
• San Jose St.               3-8
• UNC Charlotte            1-10
• UMass                         0-11
• UTEP                          2-9

Note:  Air Force and Colorado St. play each other this weekend.  Could it be a “Lose-in Game” for the SHOE Tournament?

The race to avoid winning the Brothel Defense Award is in the deep stretch:

• UMass gives up 38.0 points per game
• Georgia St. gives up 38.8 points per game
• UAB gives up 39.5 points per game.

 

Games of Interest this Week:

 

(Fri) Ole Miss – 7 at Mississippi St. (62):  This rivalry game is known as the Egg Bowl and presumably after the game we will learn where Lane Kiffin will coach next year.  Will he stay at Ole Miss or will he go – – wherever?  I think there will be points aplenty in this one, so I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Fri) Iowa – 6 at Nebraska (38.5):  I suspect that this game will have all the artistry of the Visigoths sieging a castle fortress into starvation.  Points will be at a premium here …

(Fri) Utah – 12 at Kansas (60):  The Utes need a win here to maintain lurking status in the Big-12 standings; the Jayhawks need a win here to become bowl-eligible.

(Fri) Arizona – 1.5 at Arizona St. (48):  Both teams are 8-3 but Arizona St, has only 2 conference losses in the Big-12 while Arizona has 3 conference losses.  On top of that, this is a big rivalry game…

(Fri) Georgia – 13.5 at Georgia Tech (60):  Another big rivalry game here and the Bulldogs want to be sure that the CFP Selectors continue to view them favorably.  My “sleeper team” may be up against it this week.

(Fri) San Diego St. – 1.5 at New Mexico (41):  San Diego St. is 6-1 in conference and New Mexico is 5-2.  Lots at stake here …

(Fri) Texas A&M – 2 at Texas (51.5):  The Aggies are still undefeated in 2025; the Longhorns have lost 3 times this season after being ranked #1 in the pre-season polls.

Florida St. at Florida – 1 (50.5):  The Seminoles need to win to “go bowling”; that will not be happening for the Gators this year.

Texas Tech – 24 at West Virginia (54):  Tech is tied with BYU atop the Big-12 standings. They need to take care of business on the road here to assure themselves of a chance to be the Big-12 champions for 2025.

Vandy at Tennessee – 3 (63.5):  It wasn’t all that long ago when Tennessee would have been a 33-point favorite in this season-ending rivalry game…  I see both offenses dominating here so give me the OVER in the game; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Ohio St. – 10 at Michigan (44):  The Wolverines have won 5 in a row and would leapfrog Ohio St. in the Big-10 standings with a win here.  The Ohio St. defense is as good as any I have seen this year, and they only allow 7.6 points per game.  I think that line is too fat; I’ll take Michigan plus the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Miami – 7 at Pitt (50.5):  They do not have Miami eliminated from the ACC Championship Game, but I don’t see how the Hurricanes get there.  Pitt is still in the running but will be knocked out of that running with a loss here.

Penn St. – 12.5 at Rutgers (56):  The winner goes to a bowl game and the loser goes home…

BC – 3 at Syracuse (52):  BC has won only once this season and that win was a blowout over Division 1-AA Fordham.  As a reference, Fordham’s record in second-tier football this year is 1-11.  Nonetheless, in this game, BC is a road favorite.  Wow …

Va Tech at Virginia – 10 (53):  Big rivalry game here and an important one in ACC football since Virginia is one of the teams with only 1 conference loss in 2025.

Alabama – 5.5 at Auburn (46.5):  This is the annual Iron Bowl and Auburn needs a win to be bowl-eligible.  Auburn is only 1-6 in SEC games but will consider this a “good season” if they pull off a win here.

Oregon – 6.5 at Washington (51):  This is another huge rivalry game, and it could have meaning in the Big-10 standings should Ohio St. or Indiana stumble this week.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

The New York Football Giants achieved something last week in losing.  They are the first – – and currently the only – – team in the NFL that has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in 2025.  The Giants’ record is 2-10-0; they cannot possibly go better than 7-10-0 for the season.  Already in the NFC, there are 5 teams with 8 wins on the books and two teams with 7 wins will play each other this weekend.

Over in the AFC, the Titans’ record is even worse at 1-10-0.  However, in the AFC, there are only 3 teams with 8 wins or more meaning that there is still the mathematical possibility of a fairy-tale ending to the 2025 regular season for the Titans.  Don’t hold your breath …

The Giants seem to evade the scorn that some other bad NFL teams attract – – specifically the Giants’ crosstown rival Jets.  The Browns and the Raiders also get dismissive comments from many commentators on the league, but the Giants … not so much. In fact, the Giants have had double-digit losses in eight of the last nine seasons; I had not realized that until I went looking to find the Giant’s recent draft picks looking for busts there that might explain some of this.  In fact, the Giants first round picks have generally been good players and have stayed with the team over the past decade.  In any event, the Giants should be thankful that the Jets give them cover for ineptitude because the Giants have not been a successful franchise for quite a while now.

I ran across this statement relative to the Giants’ recent firing of their Defensive Coordinator, Shane Bowen:

“The 2025 Giants are the first team in NFL history to allow over 4,000 total yards and 300 points with six or fewer takeaways through the first 11 games of the season.”

In case those numbers – – which I have not and will not pretend that I have verified – – are confusing, let me do some math for you:

• 4000 yards in 11 games is 363.6 yards per game.  The Giants are over that number.
• 300 points in 11 games is 27.3 points per game.  The Giants are over that number.
• 6 takeaways in 11 games are one every 1.83 games.  The Giants are under that number.

That is quite the defensive trifecta …

Here is another historical fact about the NFL that is relative to this time of the year.  William Clay Ford Sr. bought a minority interest in the Detroit Lions in 1956; and he became the team president in 1961.  In 1963, Ford purchased the other outstanding shares in the team to become the sole owner and the closing date for that purchase was November 22, 1963 – – the date that President Kennedy was shot and killed in Dallas.  He retained control of the Lions until his death in 2014.

Normally when discussing NFL owners and their loyalty to coaches or GMs, the first name to come up are the Rooneys – – the guys who have only had three head coaches in more than 50 years of NFL football.  Well, Ford Sr. deserves a seat at that “table of patience and loyalty” too.  In 1967, Ford hired Russ Thomas as the Lions’ GM and Thomas served in that role until 1989.  What emphasizes the degree of Ford’s patience and loyalty there is that during Thomas’ tenure in the job, the Lions only made it to the playoffs 3 times and won 0 playoff games.  In 15 of those 21 seasons, the Lions posted records of .500 or lower.

Here are comments on games from last week:

Chiefs 23  Colts 20 (OT):  The Colts led 20-9 as that fourth quarter began.  Here is a telling stat from the game; in the 4^th quarter plus overtime, the Chiefs created 236 yards of offense, and the Colts managed only 18 yards.  That is why the Chiefs came from behind to win a one-score game for the first time this year.

Pats 26  Bengals 20:  The Pats are the first team to “double-digit wins” in 2025.  The Bengals are now assured of a losing season in 2025.

Packers 23  Vikings 6:  Yes, the Packers’ defense played very well; and also yes, JJ McCarthy played very poorly.  McCarthy was 12-of-19 for 87 yards and two interceptions while also losing 35 yards on five sacks. The Vikes had only 52 yards in net passing offense; hence, the measly 6 points for the Vikes.

Lions 34  Giants 27 (OT):  The Giants lost yet another game where they led in the 4^th quarter.  The winning score on the first play of OT was 65-yard run by Jahmyr Gibbs where he was untouched by any defender.  After the game, the Giants fired their Defensive Coordinator, Shane Bowen.  If you think that will fix everything, please see stats cited above.

Bears 31  Steelers 28:  Caleb Williams led the way here with these stats for the day:

• 19 of 35 for 239 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs
• 4 rushes for 21 yards

Ravens 23  Jets 10:  The Jets led at the half – – so, there’s that…  Remember, when the Ravens were 3-5-0, I said they would win the AFC North.  I think they are on track to do exactly that. The Jets managed to keep their “streak” alive; this will be a 10^th year in a row with a losing record for the Jets.

Seahawks 30  Titans 24:  This game was surprisingly close on the stat sheet too.  The Titans possessed the ball for 37:25 in the game and ran 21 more offensive plays than the Seahawks – – and lost the game.

Browns 24  Raiders 10:  Geno Smith was sacked 10 times in this game – – three times by Myles Garrett who now has 18 sacks for the season.  [Aside: The all-time record for sacks in a season – – since the stat was made official in 1982- – is 23 (co-held by Michael Strahan and TJ Watt).]  The Raiders held the ball for 36:26 and ran 27 more offensive plays in the game  – – and still lost by 2 TDs.  Pete Carroll has now fired two of his coordinators – – people he hired within the last 12 months.  This was the 9^th loss of the year for the Raiders assuring them of a 4^th consecutive losing season and the 18th losing season for the franchise since 2002 when they won the Super Bowl.

Jags 27  Cards 24 (OT):  Jacoby Brisset had another really good game for the Cards despite losing both games.  Here is his stat line for the day:

• 33 of 49 for 317 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs.

Since Week 3 of this season the Cards have been in 6 one-score games and lost them all.  I wonder if the Cards would start Kyler Murray if he came back from his injury given the way Brissett has played the last couple of weeks …

Cowboys 24  Eagles 21:  The Eagles dominated the first half 21-0; the Cowboys dominated the second half 24-0.  Simple as that …

Texans 23  Bills 19:  The Bills are a mess right now.  The defense is porous and the offensive line is not holding up.  They need a reboot – – quickly.  If the Texans’ defense can play that way in every game, they are going to be a handful for any and all opponents from here on out.

Rams 34  Bucs 7:  With Baker Mayfield on the sideline in the second half with his left arm in a sling, this was no contest.  The Rams are a complete team; the defense is very good; they passing game is surgical and they can run the ball well.

Falcons 24  Saints 10:  Welcome back to the winners’ circle, Kirk Cousins.  The Saints’ only TD for the day came on a Pick Six; let’s just say that the Saints’ offense was “less than efficient” managing only a field goal despite 293 yards on offense and running 23 more offensive plays than the Falcons.  Once they made it to the Red Zone, the Saints’ ineptitude emerged:

• The Saints ran 13 plays inside the Red Zone and lost 10 yards net.
• The Saints did not run well in the Red Zone, amassing only 11 yards on 9 carries.
• The Saints did not pass well in the Red Zone either.  In addition to an intentional grounding penalty, the Saints allowed two sacks on Red Zone pass attempts.

 

This Week’s Games:

 

None of the NFL teams have a BYE Week over this holiday weekend but there will be 4 BYEs next week to conclude that portion of the NFL schedule for 2025.

(Thurs 1:00 PM ET) Packers at Lions – 2 (48.5):   Right out of the gate, we have the Game of the Week.  Both teams are hot on the heels of the Bears for the top spot in the NFC North and both have their eyes on playoff games in January.  Neither team has been consistently sharp this season but neither team has played poorly.  Often, the early Thanksgiving Day game has been a yawner; not this year…  The Packers’ defense came to life last week; was that an actual awakening or merely a game against JJ McCarthy?  I think it was the opponent.  On the other hand, the Lions’ secondary is banged up and questionable.  I like this game to go OVER; put it in the “betting Bundle”.

(Thurs 4:30 PM ET) Chiefs – 3 at Cowboys (52):  The Chiefs’ playoff aspirations should be focused on the wildcard slots because they trail the Broncos by 3 games with only 6 games still to play.  The Cowboys can still make the playoffs this year, but a loss here will seriously damage those chances.  Both teams won important and impressive games last week.  It should be a great game…

(Thurs 8:20 PM ET) Bengals at Ravens – 7 (52):  As the turkey’s tryptophan settles in and your eyelids get heavy, realize that the NFL understands.  This is the least interesting game of the day; so, grab a few winks as your interest wanes.  Joe Burrow is supposed to play in this game meaning the Bengals’ offense should be better than in recent weeks.  The question here is really about the Ravens and their offense; even with Lamar Jackson back on the field, the Ravens’ offense has not been in sync.

(Fri 3:00 PM ET) Bears at Eagles – 7 (44): Yes, I know that this game pits two division leaders against each other.  Yes, I thought about this as the Game of the Week for a couple of moments and decided not to go there.  Given the way the Eagles’ offense has played for the last three weeks, I am not sure I would be confident laying 7 points against any team other than a complete bottom-feeder.  It will be interesting to see if the Eagles’ defense can fluster Caleb Williams here.

Texans at Colts – 4 (44):  This game also might be a Game of the Week candidate.  In the AFC South, the Colts lead the Texans by 2 games, and the two teams will meet twice over the rest of the regular season.  This is a must win for the Texans and an important win for the Colts.  Here is a potential angle on the game:

• Colts are 6-0-0 at home in 2025
• Texans are 2-3-0 on the road in 2025.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week particularly their defense; give me the Texans plus the points here; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Cards at Bucs – 3 (44.5):  This should be a Battle of the Backup QBs – – Jacoby Brissett versus Teddy Bridgewater.  Baker Mayfield’s injury status has him as “Questionable” today.  Really?  The Bucs need this game to stay ahead of the Panthers in the NFC South; the Cards’ season has been a tire fire since the beginning of October.

Jags – 6.5 at Titans (42):  The Jags still can map out a route to a playoff game; the Titans will need Divine intervention to make the playoffs.  This is a potential trap game for the Jags; they play the Colts next week in a game that could have significant AFC South importance and this week they draw the lowly Titans …

Rams – 10 at Panthers (45):  I think the Rams are playing the best football at this point.  If they stay healthy, I see them being favored in the NFC Championship Game.  The Panthers see a door open in front of them if the Bucs have to play without Baker Mayfield at least for this week.  Reports on his injury status are unclear as of this morning.

Saints at Dolphins – 6 (42): I actually flipped a coin to determine this week’s Dog-Breath Game of the Week, and this game lost the coin flip; so, it is merely going to be labeled as a game to avoid if possible.  Neither team is good and neither team is interesting.

Falcons – 2.5 at Jets (37):  Here we have the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The teams bring a combined record of 6-16-0 to the kickoff and both will be using backup QBs limiting any anticipation of an artistic game.  In fact, this game may not be nearly as entertaining as a rock fight.  Will either team score 20 points?

Niners – 5 at Browns (36.5):  The Browns have won only 3 games this year, but 2 of those wins are at home; the Niners have yet to win a game this season against an AFC opponent.  The Browns are not going to make the playoffs; the Niners are seriously in contention there but a loss this week would be very damaging.  Browns’ fans should be boisterous here because this is Shedeur Sanders’ first home start and the fans there have been clamoring for that over the last month or so.

Vikes at Seahawks – 11.5 (41):  This spread is as high as 13.5 points at one sportsbook and as low as 10.5 points at another sportsbook.  Look for those lines to converge somewhere between today and Sunday morning.  Call this a “revenge game” for Sam Darnold if you want; I prefer to think of this QB pairing as a mistaken choice by the Vikes’ braintrust.

Bills – 3.5 at Steelers (47.5):  Both teams need this game badly.  The Bills have lost 3 of their last 5 games; they trail the Pats by 2.5 games today.  The Steelers have lost 4 of their last 6 games and are tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North.  Here are some key questions for this game:

• Can Aaron Rodgers play?  Mason Rudolph is a decent backup, but he is not Aaron Rodgers even in Rodgers’ end-of-career state.
• Can the Bills’ defense stop the Steelers on the ground?  The Bills give up 148.9 yards per game rushing ranking 30^th in the NFL.
• Can the Steelers’ defense stop the Bills passing game?  The Steelers give up 258.7 yards per game through the air ranking 31^st in the NFL

Raiders at Chargers – 9.5 (41):  The Chargers are injury-riddled resulting in very inconsistent endeavors from week to week.  The Raiders are consistently bad because their roster is sub-standard even if completely healthy.  The Chargers need the game to fend off the Chiefs in the AFC wildcard race.

(Sun Nite) Broncos – 6.5 at Commanders (43.5):  The Broncos are in control of the AFC West; the Commanders are in command of nothing.  Jayden Daniels is not supposed to play, and the Broncos’ defense should be suffocating for a mediocre Commanders’ offense.

(Mon Nite) Giants at Pats – 7 (46.5):  This might be a real test for Mike Vrabel and his staff in terms of motivation for the Pats.  They are comfortably in first place in the AFC East – – especially if the Bills lose to the Steelers on Sunday afternoon.  The Giants are in disarray – – again.  The game is at home in Foxboro.  The next two opponents are the Bills and the Ravens.  This is a classic letdown game…

So, let me review the “Betting Bundle” for this week:

• Michigan +10 against Ohio St.
• Ole Miss/Mississippi St. OVER 62
• Vandy/Tennessee OVER 63.5
• Lions/Packers OVER 48.5
• Texans +4 against Colts

And here are two Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Texans at +175
• Broncos @ minus-275                      $100 wager to win $275

And …

• Penn St. @ minus-505
• SMU @ minus-500
• Texas A&M at minus-130                  $100 wager to win $154

Finally, this from Red Blaik:

“The champion makes his own luck”.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I must have missed the memo.  I did not realize that last week in the NFL was “Accountability Week “and as a result two NFL teams stepped up and demonstrated their commitment to “Accountability” by firing a coordinator.  The Giants decided it was necessary to fire Shane Bowen – their Defensive Coordinator – after losing in OT to the Lions on Sunday.  Ironically, the person announcing the firing is an interim head coach, Mike Kafka, who is only in a position to have to do that because the Giants already fired their head coach this season.  Here is what Kafka had to say about the firing:

“These decisions aren’t easy, Shane’s a good person. He’s a good man; he’s a good coach. Just the results weren’t what we wanted them to be.”

Maybe there is a basis for thinking the Giants’ record of 2-10-0 might be pinned on the defensive coaching staff.  After all, the Giants have lost 5 games this year when the team had a double-digit lead at some point in the contest. However, if that is a defensive failure, why is it not a defensive accomplishment that it played well enough to create the opportunities for those double-digit leads?  Here is more from interim coach Mike Kafka about the now interim Defensive Coordinator, Charlie Bullen:

“I got a lot of faith in Charlie.  He’s going to step up for us and rally the group. The defensive staff will rally around Charlie and put together a great plan.”

• Memo to interim Head Coach Mike Kafka:
  • • Putting together a great plan is necessary but not sufficient.
    • The players need to carry out that “great plan” effectively.

But that’s not all.  As Sonny and Cher once sang, “And the beat goes on …”  The Raiders fired their Offensive Coordinator, Chip Kelly, this week too.  He is the second coordinator fired by the Raiders in the last two weeks; Tom McMahon was fired as the Special Teams Coordinator previously.  The Raiders’ record is 2-9-0 this season; and, in this case, the announcement of the firing comes from the incumbent head Coach, Pete Carroll:

“I spoke with Chip Kelly earlier this evening and informed him of his release as offensive coordinator of the Raiders.  I would like to thank Chip for his service and wish him all the best in the future.”

There is something missing from that statement.  It was only 9 months ago – – in February 2025 – – that Chip Kelly was hired as the Raiders’ Offensive Coordinator and was paid a record $6M per year to do that job by someone named Pete Carroll.  The Raiders’ offense has been a hot mess all season long, but before anyone jumps to the conclusion that it was the offensive play calling and offensive game plan that is the basis for that hot mess status, just look at one statistic from last week’s Raiders/Browns game:

• The Browns sacked QB Geno Smith 10 times in the game.

OK, so maybe the Offensive Coordinator should realize that his OL is overwhelmed by the DL, and he should stop calling pass plays; after all, you can’t sack a QB if he isn’t trying to throw the ball.  That logical conclusion leads to yet another blind alley; the Raiders can’t run the ball effectively because the OL gets beaten and the backs are hit behind the line of scrimmage far too often.

The Raiders’ offensive stats for 2025 are awful; there can be no debate on that:

1. Raiders rank 30^th in the NFL in Total Offense
2. Raiders rank 31^st in points scored for the 2025 season.
3. Raiders have given up 41 sacks in 2025 – – second most in the league.
4. Raiders’ QB, Geno Smith, is tied for most INTs thrown in 2025 with Tua Tagovailoa (13 INTs in 11 games).

To my eyes, the Raiders’ offensive problems begin and end with the OL; it is simply not on a par with opposing defenders week in and week out.  The Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty at RB last Spring after Jeanty ran for more than 2500 yards at Boise St. last season.  Jeanty is averaging 3.6 yards per carry for the Raiders not because he is a sub-standard RB but because he is being hit at or behind the line of scrimmage far too often; the OL is opening no holes for him and is being pushed back into the offensive backfield far too often.  There is not much a play-caller can do about that reality; you can put all the make-up you want on a pig, but it is still a pig at the end of the day.

Here is a question for the Raiders’ Front Office and ownership team:

• When you folks hired Pete Carroll, you proclaimed that he would bring/create a “winning culture” to your organization.  Now, twelve weeks into the season, you and he have fired two coordinators and have a 2-9-0 record.
• Is that a “winning culture” and have you folks had any discussions with Pete Carroll on that topic?

Finally, somehow this morning I feel a resonance with this thought from Kurt Vonnegut:

“Of course it is exhausting, having to reason all the time in a universe which wasn’t meant to be reasonable.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

I am at our weekend home in South Central Pennsylvania; we drove here on Tuesday in totally cloudy weather.  Since arrival, we have not come close to seeing the sun; this morning it is foggy and drizzly and – – well, yucky.  If I were prone to Seasonal Affect Disorder, I would curl up in a ball under some blankets and go to sleep for 12 more hours.  However, I have never had that particular malady, so I guess I need to get started on this week’s Football Friday.

As usual, I will begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals:              2-2-0
• Season To Date:                    17-34-2

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             2-1       Profit = $123
• Season To Date:                    10-16   Loss = $31

The Linfield University Wildcats closed out their regular season in football with a resounding 65-19 win over the Willamette Bearcats.  The Wildcats did not win the Northwest Conference this year, so they do not get an automatic berth in the Division III Championship Tournament.  A look this morning at NCAA.com reveals that there are seven open slots that will be announced on Sunday.  The Wildcats’ offense came to life in the final two games of the regular season, scoring a total of 142 points in those two games.  I hope that convinces the selectors to allow the Wildcats to give it a go in the Championship Tournament.  Go Wildcats!

My “sleeper team” for 2025 – – Georgia Tech – – eked out a conference victory over Boston College last week by a 36-34 score.  BC has won only one game this year; and yet, it took a field goal with 11 seconds left in the game by Tech to pull this one out.  Perhaps you can attribute this performance to a “lookahead game”?  Tech was coming off a BYE Week; BC has not done well at all this year and after BC, Tech has Pitt and Georgia left to play.  Both Pitt and Tech have only one conference loss in the ACC; the loser of that game will probably be out of the picture for the ACC Championship Game.  After that, the game against Georgia is Tech’s biggest rivalry game every year.  May be that explains the lethargic performance last week …

 

College Football Commentary

 

            I mentioned in a previous rant the opposing positions taken by the SEC and the Big 10 when it comes to expanding the CFP and how slots would be allocated in the expanded version.  The SEC wants the champs of the Power 4 conferences as the only guaranteed entrants; the Big-10 wants four slots for itself, four slots for the SEC and a formulaic structure with only 3 at large entries.  I said I liked the SEC model better.

The CFP rankings for this week point out why I prefer the SEC model.

• There are 6 SEC schools in the Top 16 and 9 SEC schools in the Top 25.
• There are 4 Big-10 schools in the Top 16 and 6 Big-10 schools in the Top 25.

For this year, there is greater depth in the SEC than in the Big-10; that is not something that will be the case every year, but in those years where one conference is perceived to be deeper in quality teams, why should a formula be applied to the playoff entrants?

There are still 3 unbeaten college football teams out there – – Ohio St., Indiana and Texas A&M.  There is – – potentially – – an interesting trend that might develop related to those three teams:

• Two weeks ago, Indiana was a huge favorite over Penn St., and it took a miraculous catch by Omar Cooper in the back of the end zone to with no time left to win the game 27-24.  The Hoosiers never came close to covering…
• Last week, Texas A&M was a “three-score favorite” over South Carolina and the Aggies trailed at halftime 30-3.  Those Aggies rallied in the second half and pulled out a win 31-30.  Again, Texas A&M never came close to covering …
• This week, Ohio St. is a 33-point favorite over Rutgers …

As I was grazing around earlier this week looking for college football “items”, I ran across a note in the Deseret News that Weber St had fired its head football coach.  I don’t devote a lot of time to Weber St. football or the Big Sky Conference so I cannot tell you why I clicked on that link and learned that the coach who was fired was named Mickey Mental.  And obviously, if he and his wife ever have triplets, they should name them:

1. Funda
2. Instru – – and – –
3. Monu

BaDaBing!  BaDaBoom!!!

Here are comments on some of last week’s games starting in the Big-12:

BYU 44  TCU 13:  BYU is 9-1 this year; the Cougars’ only loss is a conference loss to Texas Tech.  The Big-12 Championship Game might be a rematch between those two teams.

K-State 14  Oklahoma St. 9:  The Cowboys are 1-9 this year and have not won a Big-12 conference game since 2023.

Moving to the SEC …

Texas A&M 31  S. Carolina 30:  The Gamecocks led 30-3 at halftime and lost.  The Aggies are looking like a team of destiny this year.

LSU 23  Arkansas 22:  LSU broke a 4-game losing streak here.  Arkansas has lost 6 games this year by 6 points or less.

Oklahoma 23  Alabama 21:  This certainly shook up the SEC standings and the CFP rankings.  Alabama now joins Georgia and Ole Miss as 1-loss teams in SEC Conference standings, and it dropped ‘Bama from #4 to #10 in the latest CFP rankings.  The Sooners are 8-2 overall (both losses are in conference games) but they finish the season with two home games against Mizzou and LSU.  They might squeeze into the CFP even as a “two-loss team”.

Ole Miss 34  Florida 24:  The Rebels are 10-1 and should be in the CFP.  The only game left on their schedule is next Friday at Mississippi St. in the annual Egg Bowl Game.  Yes, it is a rivalry game; but Ole Miss should be a solid favorite and a win there would virtually guarantee Ole Miss a CFP invitation.

Georgia 35  Texas 10:  Looks like the Longhorns will be in a minor bowl game this year; this result gives Texas their third loss of the year.  Recall back in August, Texas was the pre-season #1 team and Penn St. was #2.  How’s that working out …???

And in the ACC …

Florida St. 34  Va Tech 14:  The score at halftime was 10-7 favor of the Seminoles.  Then Florida St. posted 14 points in the third quarter to win going away.

Notre Dame 37  Pitt 15:  That is the third overall loss for Pitt this year.  However, with only one conference loss, the Panthers still have an avenue to the CFP by getting into the ACC Championship Game and then winning that game.

Virginia 34  Duke 17:  That is Duke’s second ACC loss and it all but eliminates the Blue Devils from the ACC Championship Game.  Meanwhile, Virginia continues to roll and has only one conference loss on its dance card.

Wake Forest 28  UNC 12:   The Tar Heels are 4-6 this year and need to win out against Duke and NC St. to become bowl eligible.

And in the Big-10:

Indiana 31  Wisconsin 7:  The Badgers’ offense registered only 168 yards on offense in this game.  At least, they were not shut out again.

Penn St. 28  Michigan St. 10:  Finally, one of these teams managed to win a conference game in 2025.

Washington 49  Purdue 13:  The Huskies posted 506 yards of offense in this game.  Freshman RB, Jordan Washington ran the ball 5 times for 108 yards and 1 TD in the game.

Ohio St. 48  UCLA 10:  The Buckeyes remain unbeaten and dominated this from the start.  The score was 27-0 at halftime.

And in a couple of other games …

UConn 26  Air Force 16:  That makes it 8 wins for UConn this year.

Nevada 55 San Jose St. 10:  Nevada had only won 1 game this year and then came out and demolished San Jose St. How did that happen?   The Spartans committed 5 turnovers in the game including a Pick Six and the Spartans’ special teams yielded a kickoff return for a TD.

Sam Houston 26  Delaware 23:  This was the second win in a row for Sam Houston.  Their record is now 2-8.

San Diego St. 17  Boise St. 7:  San Diego St. leads the Mountain West Conference with a 5-1 conference record.  Boise St. and four other MWC teams have two conference losses.  The race to see which teams will meet for the MWC Championship in December has chaos written all over it.

Northern Illinois 45  UMass 10:  UMass remains the only winless Division 1-A team for 2025.  This is only the third win of the year for Northern Illinois lest you think it is a powerhouse team just by looking at the score there.

I saved that last game score for last because the next item of business here is to identify the teams still in contention for the SHOE Tournament.  Obviously, UMass will get an embossed invitation.  I did get an email from the “reader in Houston” as a result of last week’s Football Friday with a SHOE Tournament suggestion; here is his note to me:

“UMass should get a SHOE Lifetime Achievement Award and an automatic entry into your SHOE Tournament each year, regardless of record/performance.

“Have a good weekend.”

I am of two minds on this one.  On one hand, I think each season presents us with 8-10 truly bad teams who need some sort of categorization identifying their ineptitude.  Should it ever happen that UMass presents a “bowl-eligible record” for a season, it would be wrong to deny some other fetid team the ignominy of being in the SHOE Tournament.

On the other hand, there is something essentially curmudgeonly about a “Lifetime Achievement Award” that recognizes a longstanding record of failure.

• I shall keep this suggestion on my clipboard for further evaluation should UMass rise out of the muck and mire at the bottom of the football hierarchy one of these years – – or on the Twelfth of Never – – whichever comes first.

And with that as prelude, here is the Dirty Dozen – – the 12 teams still on the radar for the Shoe Tournament in 2025:

1. BC                   1-10     That win was over Fordham back in August
2. Charlotte         1-9       That win was over Monmouth by one score
3. Georgia St.      1-9       They are in the running for the Brothel Defense Award
4. Middle Tenn     1-9       They play Sam Houston this week
5. Nevada            2-8       They lost to Middle Tenn
6. New Mexico St 3-7   They play UTEP and then Middle Tenn – – don’t lose…
7. No Illinois 3-8           Two wins over Holy Cross and UMass
8. Oklahoma St.  1-9       That win was over Tenn-Martin
9. Oregon St.      2-9       They lost to Sam Houston
10. Sam Houston  2-8       They play Middle Tenn this week
11. UMass             0-10     No comment necessary
12. UTEP              2-8       Wins are over Tenn-Martin and Sam Houston

And just to keep you up to date in the race for the Brothel Defense Award:

• UMass gives up 38.0 points per game
• UAB gives up 38.7 points per game
• Georgia St. gives up 39.6 points per game

 

Games of Interest This Week

 

There are two outrageous spreads – – greater than 5 TDs – – on the card this week:

• Charlotte at Georgia – 43.5 (53.5)
• Syracuse at Notre Dame – 37 (51.5):

 

Florida St. – 6 at NC St. (59):  Both teams are 5-5; the winner will be bowl-eligible.

Hawaii at UNLV – 3 (64):  Both teams have 2 conference losses in the MWC; the loser will be eliminated from contention for the Championship Game.

Tulane – 9 at Temple (55):  As of this week, Tulane is the only team outside the Power 4 listed by the CFP selectors in the Top 25.

BYU – 2.5 at Cincy (55.5):  An important game for the Big-12 standings.

Tennessee – 4 at Florida (57):  The Gators have only won 3 games this year but all of them have been at home.

Pitt at Ga Tech – 2.5 (61.5):  Both teams have only one conference loss this year…

Duke – 7 at UNC (52):  This is a huge rivalry game and Duke can eliminate Carolina’s bowl aspirations with a win here.

Mizzou at Oklahoma – 6.5 (43):  The Sooners should be in the CFP if they win out; and if the win out, it will be due to the Sooners’ defense more than anything else.  I have no faith in the Oklahoma offense and Mizzou’s defense is not shabby at all; I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Arizona St. – 7 at Colorado (47):  Colorado is 3-7 overall this year and 1-6 in conference.  Is the bloom off the rose in Boulder for Coach Prime?  I like the Sun Devils to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Nevada at Wyoming – 7 (40):  It’s a border war game …

Cal – 3.5 at Stanford (47):  This is the Northern California version of “The Game”.  Cal is bowl eligible; Stanford will be home for the Holidays.

New Mexico St at UTEP – 3 (45):  Two SHOE Tournament possibilities here …

Sam Houston at Middle Tenn – 6.5 (53.5):  This is almost like a “play-out game” for the SHOE Tournament; the winner need not participate.

USC at Oregon – 9 (59):  This is my Game of the Week.  Oregon is solidly in place for a CFP invitation and USC is just on the periphery, but the Trojans have been playing well since losing to Notre Dame a month ago.  I think Oregon is the better team and I think they can control the game by running the ball against an average USC defense.  I’ll take Oregon to win and cover here; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

Joe Burrow began practicing with the Bengals last week as he continues to rehab from toe surgery earlier this season.  The team opened the 21-day window for Burrow meaning that he could become eligible to come off the injured list in December.  If the Bengals are to have any chance at the playoffs, it would seem that a healthy and effective Joe Burrow is a critical element there.  Here is the problem:

• The Bengals record today is 3-7-0.
• If it takes 10 wins to get a wild card slot in the playoffs – – or possibly 10 wins to be the AFC North champion – – the Bengals will have to win out.
• This week, the Bengals will have to play the surging Pats without Ja/Mar chase who was suspended for a game by the league for spitting on Jalen Ramsey last week.
• After that, the Bengals draw the Ravens, Bills and Ravens again…

Burrow should be ready by the Bills game – – but should he be on the field in a relatively recently repaired toe when his efforts will likely be welcomed but late?  Joe Burrow is an extraordinarily valuable asset that may need some protection from himself because if he thinks he can play, he is going to want to play.  Zac Taylor may need a 5-gallon drum of Maalox pondering that one.

Look, the Bengals record since Burrow had to leave the game in Week 3 is 1-7-0, but the losses cannot be hung around the neck of the offensive unit.  Consider:

• The Bengals are last in the NFL in Total Defense allowing 418.2 yards per game
• The Bengals are 31^st in the NFL in Pass Defense allowing 257.3 yards per game
• The Bengals are last in the NFL in Run Defense allowing 160.9 yards per game
• The Bengals are last in the NFL in Scoring Defense allowing 33.4 points per game
• Joe Burrow does not play defense …

The league announced that it has flexed two games for Week 14 of the season.  Originally, the Packers/Bears game was scheduled to be in the 1:00 PM (ET) time slot but the Bears are leading the division as of today and the Packers are in second place there.  So, the league has decided to move that game to a 4:30 start to give it greater visibility nationally.  And to make room for that move, the Bengals/Bills game originally scheduled for the later time slot will be moved back to a 1:00 PM kickoff time.

Let me do some projecting for the playoffs at the end of this season.  I will take the 7 teams in each conference who would be in the playoffs if the regular season were over now and project them into January.  I’ll start in the AFC:

• Broncos:  They have 9 wins on the books and should be solid favorites in their next two games even though they are on the road (Commanders and Raiders).  The last 4 games will be much tougher but 3 of them are in Denver.  I think the Broncos will win 13 games and be in the playoffs.
• Pats:  They have 9 wins on the books with 6 games to play.  All 6 are winnable but only two should see the Pats as solid favorites.  I think the Pats will also win 13 games and be in the playoffs.
• Colts:  They have 8 wins in the bank with 7 games left to play.  There are zero soft spots left for the Colts with the rest of the schedule looking like:
  • • At Chiefs,
    • Vs. Texans,
    • At Jaguars,
    • At Seahawks,
    • Vs. 49ers,
    • Vs. Jaguars,
    • At Texans
• I’ll project the Colts to win 11 games and make the playoffs
• Steelers:  They only have 6 wins, but they lead the AFC North this morning.  Aaron Rodgers has a wrist injury that may or may not see him limited or out of games for the rest of the season.  In their final 7 games only the Dolphins and Browns look like surefire “Ws”.  I think the Steelers will wind up 9-8 and miss the playoffs because the Ravens will be the AFC North champs.
• Bills:  They have 7 wins in the bank, but they have not been playing well for the last month.  They have 3 games they should win (Bengals, Browns, Jets) but the other three games will be difficult.  I think the Bills win 11 games and get a wild card slot in the playoffs.
• Chargers:  They have 7 wins, and they are very injured.  Looking at their final 6 opponents, I don’t see any games where the Chargers will be solid favorites to win the game.  I think the Chargers will win 9 games this season and miss the playoffs
• Jags:  They only have 6 wins, but they are winning with a strong and opportunistic defense and that sort of play sticks around.  Tey have the Cards, the Jets and the Titans twice in the remaining schedule.  They also get the Colts twice.  I think the Jags will win 10 games and make the playoffs this year.

And over in the NFC:

• Eagles:  They have 8 wins so far this season and their schedule ahead is still difficult including three division games still to go.  I think the Eagles will have 12 wins at the end of the regular season and will be in the NFC playoffs.
• Rams:  They also have 8 wins to date.  Their schedule from here on is a bit softer than the one for the Eagles.  The Rams should be solid favorites over the Cards (twice) and the Falcons.  I think the Rams win 13 games when all is done and will own home field for the NFC playoffs.
• Bears:  They have 7 wins in this regular season.  Their #3 playoff position at this stage of the season is certainly a surprise to most prognosticators and even though their record is 7-3-0, the Bears sport a point differential of minus-6 points. The Bears have six remaining games; five of those games are against potential playoff teams (Eagles, Packers, Packers again, Niners, Lions).  I think the Bears wind up with 10 wins in 2025 and make the playoffs as a wild card.
• Bucs:  They only have 6 wins on the books, but they lead their division.  Their remaining schedule looks pretty soft as of today and the Bucs should win 11 or 12 games and win their division thereby making the playoffs.
• Seahawks:  They have 7 wins as of this morning.  Their defense will keep them in just about every game; what the team needs to avoid is a Sam Darnold melt-down.  I suspect the Seahawks will be solid favorites in three of their remaining seven games and wind up winning 12 games making them the top seeded wild card team in the playoffs.
• Packers:  They have 6 wins – – and 1 tie – – on their ledger.  Their offense has not been a smooth operation of late, and the Packers need to fix that promptly.  The remaining schedule has the Packers playing 5 division games plus the Ravens and the Broncos.  They will need to win 4 of the last 7 to make the playoffs and I don’t think they are going to do that.
• Niners:  They have 7 wins in 2025.  The next 3 opponents are Panthers, Browns, Titans; those are games the Niners cannot afford to lose because the final three games are Colts, Bears, Seahawks.  I think the Niners win 11 games and make the playoffs

So, look over that foreshadowing and check it out come January to see if I was akin to Nostradamus here  – – or – – Nostra-dumbass.

Here are some comments on games from last weekend:

Dolphins 16  Commanders 13:  Lots of errors in this game.  Both teams were stopped after reaching the opponent’s 1 yardline in the game.  The Commanders lost because they turned the ball over twice in the game and because they scored no TDs in three trips to the Red Zone.  The Commanders absolutely shut down the Dolphins in the red zone, holding them to just one TD on five trips inside the 20-yard line. Washington had two crucial goal line stands, including one in the final minute that forced overtime – – to no avail.

Panthers 30  Falcons 27 (OT):  The Falcons’ defense was supposed to be a cornerstone of the team.  Bryce Young had been in a whole bunch of games recently where he struggled and could not amass 200 yards passing.  So, here is Young’s stat line against the nominally stout Falcons’ defense:

• 31 of 45 for 448 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs

Say what?  Michael Penix, Jr. suffered a knee injury here and the Falcons put him on IR, and he will miss the remaining games in 2025.  The Falcons defense went AWOL in the second half giving up 345 yards of offense to the Panthers in those 30 minutes of play.

Bears 19  Vikes 17:  This win puts the Bears in first place in the NFC North by half a game over the Packers and a full game over the Lions.  Raise your hand if you saw that happening around Thanksgiving.  JJ McCarthy threw 2 INTs in this game.  Here is a stat I ran across relative to this game:

• The Bears are 5-3 this season when trailing in the final two minutes.

Texans 16  Titans 13:   The Texans prevailed by converting a last second field goal in this game.  The win keeps the Texans’ hopes for a division title alive and puts them squarely in the wild card chase in the AFC..  The Titans are 1-9 and currently have the inside track on the overall #1 pick in the Draft next Spring – – it would be for the second year in a row.

Jags 35 Chargers 6:  The Chargers managed only 135 yards on offense for the day including only 42 yards rushing on 16 carries.  The Chargers scored their last points about half-way through the second quarter.  Here are their possessions after that:

• 6 plays             33 yards          PUNT
• 3 plays             2 yards            PUNT
• 1 play                0 yards            INT
• 4 plays             2 yards            TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 9 plays             31 yards          SACKED – TURNOVER ON DOWNS

The Jags are now 6-4 and can see THEIR way to the playoffs; the Chargers are now 7-4 and they are two full games behind the Broncos in the AFC West.   The Jags’ defense dominated here by sacking Justin Herbert 3 times and tacking him for a loss 5 times and intercepting him once.

Steelers 34  Bengals 12:  The score was 20-12 midway through the 4^th quarter of this game and then the Steelers got two TDs – – one a scoop and score – – to make it look like a blowout.

Packers 27  Giants 20:  The Packers’ offense has been stagnant for the last several weeks; they were outgained by the Giants in this game by 40 yards even with Jameis Winston under center for the Giants.  Christian Watson caught two TD passes for the Packers here.

Bills 44  Bucs 32:  Josh Allen put on his super-hero costume for this game:

• 19 of 30 for 317 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs
• 6 rushes for 40 yards with 3 TDs.

That’s right; Allen accounted for 6 TDs in the game.     It was just the third time in NFL history that a player had three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in a game Allen in 2024 vs. Rams and Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL Championship Game were the two previous instances.

Rams 21  Seahawks 19:  The Seahawks outgained the Rams significantly, 414 yards to 249 yards.  Four turnovers by the Seahawks and scoring only 1 TD in four Red Zone incursions let the Rams win this one and take sole possession of first place in the NFC West.  These two teams will meet again next month in Seattle.    Sam Darnold threw 4 INTs here; those are the “four turnovers above”.  And yet, this was a 2-point game where the Seahawks could have won had a last second 60-yard field goal been good…

Niners 41  Cards 22:  Brock Purdy returned to the field for the Niners, but the team’s offensive performance was meager – – only 281 yards on offense.  The Cards Jacoby Brissett had an amazing stat line for this game:

• 47 of 57 for 452 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs

Those two INTs along with another turnover by the Cards provided a lot of scoring opportunities for the Niners.   The 47 completed passes by Jacoby Brissett set an all-time NFL record.  Previously, the most passes completed in a game was 45 and that was held by Jared Goff and Drew Bladsoe; Brissett’s possession of that record will make a great trivia question in about 10 years.    The Cardinals got called for a franchise-record 17 penalties for 130 yards in the game and the Cards’ special teams surrendered a 98-yard kick return for a TD to start the game.

Ravens 23  Browns 16:  Be careful what you wish for.  Browns’ fans were booing QB, Dillon Garbriel for every play that was not a first down; lots of them had signs begging for Shedeur Sanders to play QB.  And they got their wish in the entire second half as Gabriel was being evaluated for a concussion.  Here is Sanders’ stat line:

• 4 of 16 for 47 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT.

Oh, yes; he was sacked twice in addition to completing 25% of his pass attempts.  Maybe Kevin Stefanski knew what he was doing playing Gabriel ahead of Sanders?  The bright spot for the Browns in the game was Myles Garrett who sacked Lamar Jackson 4 times.

Eagles 16  Lions 9:  Another win for the Eagles’ defense here – – and for an offense that did not turn the ball over in the game.  The Eagles controlled the clock with a solid running game that gave the Eagles 35:48 in time of possession.  The Lions went for it on 4^th down 5 times and the game and failed each time.

• Question:  Did Coach Dan Campbell forget that football should involve punting where one’s foot contacts the ball?

Here is a stat I ran across – – and one that I have not even tried to verify:

• The Eagles are the second NFL team since 2000 to hold their opponent to zero conversions on five or more 4th down attempts.

Pats 27  Jets 14:  The Jets opened the game with an 8-minute drive covering 72 yards in 14 plays and resulting in a TD.  After that there were 4 straight punts.  At the start of the 4^th quarter, the score was 21-14 in favor of the Pats; here are the Jets’ possessions in the 4^th quarter:

• 6 plays            8 yards                        PUNT
• 1 play              – 4 yards                      FUMBLE
• 12 plays           50 yards                      TURNOVER ON DOWNS

Broncos 22 Chiefs 19:  The Broncos have a 2-game lead over the Chargers and a 3.5-game lead over the Chiefs this morning.  This was yet another last second win by the Broncos this season; this one split the uprights as time expired.  That is 8 wins in a row for the Broncos.

Cowboys 33  Raiders 16:  This game was not nearly this close.  After a three-and-out on their first possession of the game, the Cowboys’ offense did what it needed to do for the balance of the game.  The Cowboys’ OL dominated, and the Cowboys’ DL dominated; this outcome was never really in doubt.

 

Games This Week:

 

We have four teams on their BYE Week:

1. Broncos:  With 8 straight wins in their pocket, the Broncos probably wish they did not have to take a week off so they could just keep rolling.
2. Chargers:  This team is dealing with loads of injuries and needs the time off.
3. Commanders:  Yes, this team has injuries too – – but what they really need more than anything else would be practice at tackling ball carriers.  They do that very poorly.
4. Dolphins:  Believe it or not, they are on a 2-game winning streak.

            Last night, the Texans simply dominated the Bills.  The score was 23-19, but the game was not nearly that close.  The Texans’ defense created 3 turnovers and sacked Josh Allen 8 times in the game.  If the Texans’ defense can play like that week after week, they will be in the playoffs and will be a tough out.

Steelers at Bears – 2.5 (46):  Here are two division leaders playing each other; that made me think about this as the Game of the Week for a while.  The effectiveness at the QB position is in doubt this week with Aaron Rodgers having a wrist injury and the backup being Mason Rudolph.

Jets at Ravens – 14 (44.5):  This is one of three double-digit spreads on the card for this weekend.  The Ravens sure did not look like world-beaters last week against the Browns.

Giants at Lions – 13 (52):  This is another of the double-digit spreads for this week.  The Lions would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today; they need a win and just might stomp on the gas pedal and never let up.

Pats – 7 at Bengals (51):  The Pats have won 8 games in a row and the Pats are 5-0-0 on the road this season.

Seahawks – 13 at Titans (40.5):  These are two good defensive teams.  The Seahawks are usually a good offensive team, but the Titans are not.

Vikes at Packers – 6.5 (41):  Both teams need this divisional game badly.  The Vikes are 3 games behind the Bears with 7 to play; the Packers are still second in the division but have not played well for the last several weeks.

Colts at Chiefs – 3.5 (48):  This is the start of a difficult schedule span for the Colts – – and the Chiefs are desperate for a win to stay playoff relevant.

Jags – 2.5 at Cards (47.5):  The Jags’ defense needs to show up big here; they cannot allow another offensive outburst like the one the Cards laid on the Niners last week.

Browns at Raiders – 4 (36):  I will call this the Dog-Breath Game of the Week, but only by a very slim margin.  Shedeur Sanders has to do better this week than he did last week, no?  The Raiders could not handle the Cowboys’ defense last week; so, how are they supposed to deal with the Browns’ defense?  I rarely make a selection in a game this bad but getting more than a field goal is too tempting to pass up here; I’ll take the Browns plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

Falcons at Saints – 2 (40):  This is the other contender for the Dog-Breath label.  Any time this year’s Saints are favored in a game is reason to think that will be a stinkeroo.

Eagles – 3 at Cowboys (47):  This is an important division game.  A win for the Eagles just about eliminates the Cowboys from the division title race.  That made me think about this as the Game of the Week for a few moments.

(Sun Nite) Bucs at Rams – 7 (49):  This is the Game of the Week.  Both teams are leading their divisions and both teams are playing well.  I think this game stays close so I’ll take the Bucs plus the points here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Mon Nite) Panthers at Niners – 7 (49):  The Niners trail the Seahawks by half a game, and it looks like the Seahawks have a very winnable game on Sunday.  So, this becomes a big game for the Niners.  Meanwhile the Panthers trail the Bucs by half a game, and the Bucs look like they have their hands full on Sunday.  So, this becomes a big game for the Panthers too.

Now, let me review the “Betting Bundle”

• Mizzou/Oklahoma UNDER 43
• Oregon – 9 over USC
• Arizona St. – 7 over Colorado
• Browns +4 against Raiders
• Bucs +7 against Rams

And just for fun, here are three Money Line parlays:

• Pats @ minus-340
• Browns @ +170                     $100 wager to win $249

And …

• Tulane @ minus-340
• JMU @ minus-550
• Arizona St. @ minus-275      $100 wager to win $109

And ,,,

• Colts @ +155
• Packers @ minus-280           $100 wager to win $246

Finally let’s hear from Hank Stram:

“I’ve lived a charmed life. I married the only girl I ever loved and did the only job I ever loved.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Last week, one of the rants had me go looking at the first round of the 1948 NFL Draft.  In so doing, I learned that two Hall of Fame QBs came out of that Draft – – Bobby Layne and Y.A. Tittle – – except that neither one of those QBs won a championship with the team that selected them.   Tittle never did win a championship even though he led the Giants to the NFL Championship game three straight years in the 1960s.  Layne was on three NFL championship teams with the Lions in the 1950s; he started at QB for two of those teams but missed the third championship game due to injury.

That rant led to me receiving an email from a frequent reader and commenter on various posts; he uses the screen name “TenaciousP”.  Here is the text of his email:

“Bobby Layne and YA Tittle. Neither won a championship with the team that drafted them. Which raises the data question: how many quarterbacks, 1948 – 2025, were drafted by the team that won a Super Bowl with them at the helm? I’m an idea person.”

I am not a DJ; I don’t take requests; that would damage my street cred as a Certified Curmudgeon.  However, the question intrigued me and I went looking.  I restricted my search to the Super Bowl era which began with the Packers and Chiefs playing in January 1967 at the LA Memorial Coliseum.  If I have counted correctly, there have been 21 Super Bowl winning QBs who started and won the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them originally.  Here is my list chronologically:

1. Bart Starr – – Packers
2. Joe Namath – – Jets
3. Roger Staubach – – Cowboys
4. Bob Greise – – Dolphins
5. Terry Bradshaw – – Steelers
6. Ken Stabler – – Raiders
7. Joe Montana – – Niners
8. Jim McMahon – – Bears
9. Phil Simms – – Giants
10. Jeff Hostetler – – Giants
11. Mark Rypien – – Skins
12. Troy Aikman – – Cowboys
13. Tom Brady – – Pats
14. Ben Roethlisberger – – Steelers
15. Peyton Manning – – Colts
16. Aaron Rodgers – – Packers
17. Joe Flacco – – Ravens
18. Russell Wilson – – Seahawks
19. Nick Foles – – Eagles
20. Patrick Mahomes – – Chiefs
21. Jalen Hurts – – Eagles

Note that John Elway and Eli Manning are not on this list.  Technically, Elway was drafted by the Colts and traded “immediately” to the Broncos; similarly, Manning was drafted by the Chargers and sent directly to the Giants.  Elway won Super Bowls with the Broncos and Manning won Super Bowls with the Giants – – but they are not on this list.

There have been 59 Super Bowls to date.  This list of 21 QBs who won Super Bowls for the team that drafted them represents well more than half of the Super Bowl games played.  Nine of these twenty-one QBs won multiple Super Bowl games including seven wins for Tom Brady and four wins each for Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana.

So, now you know …

Finally, to be sure that I remain a Curmudgeon in Good Stead after taking a request, let me close with these pronouncements by a Hall of Fame Level Curmudgeon, H. L. Mencken:

“Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.”

And …

“It is not materialism that is the chief curse of the world, as pastors teach, but idealism. Men get into trouble by taking their visions and hallucinations too seriously.”

And …

“It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Virginia Tech finished its search for a new head football coach this week.  James Franklin was asked to leave State College, PA earlier this season by the less-than-happy denizens of “Happy Valley”; so, now he will move south to Blacksburg, VA and assume the mantle of head coach for the Hokies.  On the surface, this seems like a great hiring decision by the school and a smart acceptance by Coach Franklin.

After a long career as a position coach and as a coordinator, Frankin took over the head coaching job at Vandy in 2011.  When he took the job, Vandy had produced records of 2-10 in each of the previous two seasons and was basically seen as a doormat in the SEC.  Franklin was there for three seasons, and the Commodores went to a bowl game in each of those three seasons.  His overall record in those three seasons was 24-15; that is a whole lot of winning for a team that was a doormat when he arrived.

James Franklin’s tenure at Vandy earned him the label of “program builder”; indeed, the turnaround at Vandy – – the only private school in the SEC – – was eye-catching.  At the end of the 2013 season, the folks at Penn State were looking at a different situation.  Two years earlier the school fired Joe Paterno who had been there since 1966 amid a particularly nauseating sexual assault scandal.  Bill O’Brien had been the coach in 2012 and 2013, and the Nittany Lions had posted winning records in both seasons, but fans felt the vibe was wrong.  O’Brien had saved the football program at Penn State from disintegrating, but some fans and boosters felt that the program needed a boost to get back to where it was in Paterno’s glory years.  That person turned out to be James Franklin.

In eleven seasons at Penn State from 2011 through 2024, Franklin’s teams were above .500 ten times; the one losing season was the foreshortened 2020 COVID season.  But fans and boosters did not like the fact that Franklin’s teams never “broke through” and beat one of the other big dogs in the Big-10.  Under Franklin, Penn State’s record was 3-7 against Michigan and 1-10 against Ohio State.  Earlier this season after three consecutive losses to Oregon, Northwestern and UCLA, Franklin was fired at Penn State.

With that as prologue, I think this is a great hiring decision by Virginia Tech and another opportunity for James Franklin to do what he has shown he can do.  Tech was successful for years under Frank Beamer but since his retirement in 2015, things have not been nearly as positive for the Hokies.  In the last three seasons Tech has amassed a cumulative record of 16-21.  Tech needed to find a “program builder” and they found one in James Franklin.

From Franklin’s perspective, this is a good landing spot for him too.  After sub-.500 records in four of the last five seasons, he will be seen as successful with an invitation to a minor bowl game in mid-December.  And, as he builds out a program in Blacksburg, the route to something more than passing national recognition is relatively easy in the ACC.  Clemson and Florida State had dominated the ACC for years, but neither program is currently seen as unassailable; Miami is on the ascent but none of the other schools are “fearsome”.

If Franklin can attract recruits even close to the caliber of the players he got at Penn State – – not at the Saquon Barkley or Abdul Carter level – – who were evaluated as reasonable prospects for NFL football, the Hokies could become a contender for top positions in the ACC.  There are other job openings in college football this year but landing one in the ACC just might be the “sweet spot” for a coach looking to get his new team into the periphery of the national spotlight.

Oh, and also, neither Michigan nor Ohio State will show up on the Va Tech schedule…

Finally, this note from Knute Rockne:

“I’ve found that prayers work best when you have big players.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………