Author: Jack

Don Rickles said:

“I like to think I’m like the guy who goes to the office Christmas party Friday night, insults some people, but still has his job Monday morning.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central, I like to think I am the guy who produces Football Fridays and still has a readership left on Monday morning.  It’s tough job [not really] and someone has to do it [again, not really].  So, on with the show …

Here is a quick review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spread and Total wagers were 2-2-0 – – Meh!
• Money Line Parlays were 1-2 for a “Loss” of $57 – – Not good!

Undaunted, I press on…

 

College Football Commentary

 

            The Heisman Award went to Travis Hunter this year.  I am glad it did not go to one of the QBs on the ballot because I think both Hunter and Ashton Jeanty were better college football players in 2024 than any of the college QBs in this year’s crop.  Congratulations to Travis Hunter – – and I wonder where the NFL team that drafts him will choose to play him on Sunday afternoons.

I don’t know whether to be happy or outraged by the news that Marshall University chose to pull out of its bowl game against Army because more than two dozen of its players chose to enter the transfer portal and would not have played in that bowl game to avoid injury.

• On one hand, it has been clear for many years that there are too many minor bowl games and perhaps this is a signal to call some of them off – – permanently.
• On another hand, this entire scheduling fiasco is an unintended consequence of unregulated NIL money along with the universal presence of the transfer portal.

None of the advocates for “pay the college athletes” and/or “free movement for college athletes” envisioned this as one of the outcomes.  Those advocates thought they had “the answers”; where are they now with more “answers”?

Speaking of college football bowl games, there has been a shift in bowl names over the years.  Long ago, bowl games were named after plants – – or plant products – – grown in warm weather such as:

• Cactus Bowl
• Camillia Bowl
• Citrus Bowl
• Cotton Bowl
• Orange Bowl
• Peach Bowl
• Poinsettia Bowl
• Rose Bowl
• Sugar Bowl

Currently, the trend seems to be to name bowl games after people in uniform or the objectives of people in uniform:

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
• Go Bowling Military Bowl
• Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
• Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
• Salute to Veterans Bowl
• ServPro First Responder Bowl
• Valero Alamo Bowl

One of the lyrics in the old Bob Dylan song goes like this:

“Come mothers and fathers throughout the land
And don’t criticize what you can’t understand.
Your sons and your daughters are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin’.  Please get out of the new one
If you can’t lend your hand for the times, they are a-changin’ “

Another college football example of changing times happened last week.  Starting in 2025, the Ivy League will take part in the Division 1-AA football playoffs.  The Ivy League has been in existence for 70 years now and has over that time period refused any sort of participation in bowl games or playoff structures when it comes to football.  The Ivies do participate in other collegiate championships – – March Madness being the most obvious example – – but football outside of the regular season was never seriously considered “proper”.

One of the consequences of this decision to participate in next year’s football championship tournament is that the league will need to develop tie-breakers for the league.  For the last 70 years, if two or more teams had the same record against Ivy League opponents, the League simply named them as co-champions.  This year, there was a three-way tie at the top of the league:

• Dartmouth was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Harvard was 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games
• Columbia was 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Ivy League games

 

CFP Games This Week

 

Think about the old saying, “Defense wins championships,” while you ponder this stat for the 2024 college football regular season.

• There are twelve teams in the field.
• Seven of the twelve teams are ranked in the Top Ten in Total Defense for the year.
  • • Ohio St. – – ranked #1
    • Indiana – – ranked #2
    • Texas – – ranked #3
    • Tennessee – – ranked #4
    • Penn St. – – ranked #6
    • Notre Dame – – ranked #9
    • Oregon – – ranked #10

Interestingly, Georgia is a team known for its defensive prowess under Kriby Smart ranks down at #35 in the country in Total Defense.  By comparison, the Bulldogs give up 95 more yards per game than top-ranked Ohio St.  Now you know …

(Fri Nite) Indiana at Notre Dame – 7 (52.5):  The in-state distance between these two schools is only about 200 miles but they have not met on a football field for the last 33 years; the last time Indiana beat Notre Dame in football was all the way back in the 1950 season.  This year, Indiana ranked first in the nation in scoring differential (28.7 points per game) and Notre Dame ranked second in the nation in scoring differential (26.1 points per game).  Neither team played a difficult schedule so this game could play out in a myriad of ways.  One thing is for sure; Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman will be back as the head coach of the Irish next year; he just signed a long-term extension.  The Irish have lost their last 10 bowl games in a row; the oddsmakers have them installed as a solid favorite here at minus-290 on the Money Line.  People have questioned Indiana’s “worthiness” for CFP participation because of their soft schedule; here is a chance for the Hoosiers to demonstrate their “worthiness”.  I like the game to stay UNDER because I think the two highly regarded defenses in the game will dominate the play; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

SMU at Penn St. – 8 (54):  Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions exploded for more than 500 yards of offense against Oregon in the Big-10 Championship Game; Oregon has a Top-Ten defense and SMU does not.  Where SMU has is an edge is in team speed.  I think the Penn St. defense can keep SMU from running wild, so I’ll take the Nittany Lions at home to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Clemson at Texas – 12.5 (51.5):  I think Clemson is overmatched here; simply put, playing an ACC schedule in 2024 is not the same thing as playing an SEC schedule in 2024 even when you consider that Texas did not have to face the top SEC teams week after week.  Having said that, I think that line is fat; give me Clemson plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.  Now for those Clemson fans who think I am being harsh in calling the Tigers “overmatched”, let me refer you to the Money Line this morning where Clemson can be had at odds of +360.

Tennessee at Ohio St. – 7.5 (46):  I think this is the best game of the first round in the CFP this year.  Presumably, the Vols’ defensive coaches and players took notes while watching what Michigan’s defense did to the Buckeyes.  Tennessee has plenty of defensive talent and should keep this game close all day long.  I think the key to the game is Tennessee RB, Dylan Simpson; if he can grind out offense and keep the clock moving, this could go down to the wire.  The Vols are at +240 on the Money Line which is tempting, but I shall resist.  I will take Tennessee plus the points in the game, however; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary

 

I have said here before that I will not be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers drag out his “decision” regarding his “play or retire” decision for 2025 along with any “decision” related to his remaining with the NY Jets in 2025.  The latest pronouncement from Rodgers is that he is “open to everything”.  I think that story has gotten sufficient attention and so I want to pose a rhetorical question here:

• Regardless of Rodgers’ decision to play or not play for the Jets next year, the Jets will need to acquire another QB in the near future to lead the team.
• At the same time, the Jets also need to hire a new GM and a new head coach because both positions have been vacated in the middle of the 2024 season.
• So, which is the more important hiring decision – – a new GM or a new QB?

I pose that question fully recognizing that the QB is the pivotal figure for most NFL teams.  Not meaning to contradict that logic, the Jets as a franchise have been ”at sea” (to be polite) for at least a decade now primarily because of poor roster construction.  To make that point, since the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jets have had 7 first round picks:

• Zack Wilson, QB
• Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG
• Sauce Gardner, DB
• Garrett Wilson, WR
• Jermaine Johnson, DE
• Will McDonald IV, DE
• Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT

By my eyeball test, there are two bona fide “anywhere in the NFL starters” on that list; two out of seven is less than 30%; when your first round pick “success rate” is less than 30%, perhaps there is a problem beyond the lack of a star QB.

Along similar lines, one of the narratives for this NFL season has been the confluence of the Dallas Cowboys underachieving expectations along with the fact that coach Mike McCarthy’s contract is up at the end of this season.  Lots of commentators have simply assumed that McCarthy will not be back on the sidelines for the Cowboys next year.  But let me ask if you think he deserves to be fired.  The Cowboys’ failures seem to me to rest on three pillars:

1. Their starting QB suffered a season-ending injury; the backup QB has played “uninspiringly”.
2. Their defense gives up over 27 points per game because it gets pushed around.
3. Their running game is anemic; it ranks 27^th in the league as of today.

I submit that the Cowboys’ underachievement is partly based on unrealistically high expectations in the first place and on poor roster construction once again.  The issue for Cowboys’ fans is that the “roster constructor” is the team owner and the team owner has not even hinted that he might relinquish any of those roster construction duties to someone else.

The Lions have a record of 12-2-0 as of this morning.  The Lions lead the NFL in points scored (459 points in 14 games = 32.8 points per game).  The Lions’ defense was very stingy early in the season but not so much recently.  In their last 3 games, the Lions have given up 99 points (33 points per game).  The reason is pretty simple – – injuries to starters on defense.  Every team has injuries, but it seems as if Lions’ defenders have been targeted by the football gods.  Here is a partial list of quality defenders on IR for the Lions:

• Alex Anzalone  LB
• Carlton Davis  DB
• Khalil Dorsey  DB
• Aiden Hutchinson  DE
• Alim McNeil  DT
• Malcom Rodriguez  LB

The Tampa Bay Bucs have quietly asserted themselves with a 4-game winning streak that allowed them to overtake the Falcons for the lead in the NFC South and the Bucs have done it with offense.  Baker Mayfield and company have scored 124 points in those 4 consecutive wins (31 points per game).  The Bucs have a one-game lead in the division and the remaining schedule is not a killer; none of the final three opponents has even a .500 record in 2024:

• Cowboys are 6-8-0
• Panthers are 3-11-0
• Saints are 5-9-0

Winning the division – – and thereby making the playoffs – – is totally in the hands of the Bucs; if they take care of business against those three teams with losing records, they will be in the playoffs.

Now before you shrug your shoulders and wave the Bucs off as a stepping stone for some other NFC team on the way to the Super Bowl, please consider this:

• The Bucs have beaten both the Eagles and the Lions this year.  They beat the Eagles by 17 points and the Lions by 4 points back in September.
• The Bucs lost to the Chiefs – – but took the Chiefs to OT in early November.
• Do not sleep on the Bucs.

The Browns announced this week that they will bench Jameis Winston at QB and replace him with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  This may look like “tanking”, but I will try to suggest here that this move makes sense for the Browns’ franchise.  It begins with this mastery of the obvious statement:

• The Browns’ record of 3-11-0 guarantees that the players and coaches will taking Caribbean cruises with their families in January in lieu of prepping for a playoff game.

The Browns have a “QB Situation” that has defied resolution for some time now:

• They have an injured Deshaun Watson who is signed through the end of the 2026 season.
• They have Jameis Winston who will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season – – and they pretty much know what they have in Winston.  This is his 9^th season in the NFL; there aren’t a lot of mysteries associated with Jameis Winston.
• They have Dorian Thompson-Robinson on a rookie contract that runs through the end of the 2026 season.

I will go out on a limb here and say that the Browns are not going to extend Deshaun Watson’s contract and that they would like to know how Thompson-Robinson has progressed in this his second season in the NFL.  That assessment could clarify for the Browns’ brass how aggressively they attack the QB market in the offseason and/or in the 2025 NFL draft.  Watching Thompson-Robinson in practice is one thing but it does not replace seeing him play against real NFL defenders going at full speed.  The last three games for the Browns are against the Bengals, Dolphins and Ravens; maybe the Ravens will have “something to play for” in Week 18 but the other two games are meaningless contests.  So, taking advantage of misfortune seems to make sense here; find out if the kid can play or not.

Here are some comments on some of last week’s games.

Commanders 20  Saints 19:   Jayden Daniels was sacked 8 times by Saints and the Commanders still won the game.  That does not happen often   Jake Haener quickly proved he wasn’t the answer for the Saints at quarterback, but the Saints scrambled back with Spencer Rattler at the helm.

Chiefs 21  Browns 7:  The Browns turned the ball over six times and did not snap the ball at all in the red zone.  Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury x-rays were negative; the official pronouncement was a high ankle sprain.  He practiced on Wednesday of this week and is listed as “Questionable” for this week’s game.

Texans 20  Dolphins 12:    The Texans did not gain 200 yards on offense but won the game because the Dolphins turned the ball over 4 times – – three of which were INTs thrown by Tua Tagovailoa.

Eagles 27  Steelers 13: This game was not nearly as close as the score indicates.  The Eagles outgained the Steelers by 238 yards and racked up 26 first downs to the Steelers’ 10.

Bucs 40  Chargers 17:  The Chargers led this game 17-10 at one point; then the Bucs scored the last 30 points in a row. Baker Mayfield was 22 for 27 with four TDs.   The Chargers’ record is now 8-6-0 and this loss makes them the seventh seed in the projected AFC playoffs. The most surprising stat to me is that a Jim Harbaugh coached team was outgained on the ground here 223 yards to 32 yards.

Ravens 35  Giants 14:   The Giant’s defense could not get off the field efficiently in the game; the Ravens converted 9 of 11 third down situations.   By comparison, the Giants converted only 2 of 12 third down opportunities.  The Giants have lost 9 in a row; that ties a franchise record for a franchise that dates back to1925.  Tommy DeVito started for the Giants, Tim Boyle finished up when DeVito suffered a concussion.

Falcons 15  Raiders 9:   The Raiders’ special teams got two punts blocked, an extra point blocked, and fair caught a punt at the 3-yard line – – all in one game.  Raiders’ coach, Antonio Pierce was not pleased; asked about his team’s special teams miscues after the game, Pierce acknowledged they were “ugly”.

 

Games This week:

 

Last night’s game between the Chargers and the Broncos was a tale of two halves.  In the first half, the Broncos dominated the stat sheet, the eyeball test and the scoreboard; the halftime score had the Broncos up by 8 points, but no one would have believed the score was that close.  Then things changed on a dime; the second half was dominated by the Chargers who took the lead and never relinquished it running away with a 34-27 win.

Both teams are still in good position to make the playoffs in the AFC.  For either team to miss this year’s playoffs, they would have to lose their two remaining games and one or more of the Dolphins, Bengals or Colts would have to win out.  Strange things happen every week in the NFL but the scenarios I just described go beyond “strange”.

(Sat Early PM) Texans at Chiefs – 3.5 (42):  With two division leaders going at it, this game got serious consideration as the Game of the Week. Can Patrick Mahomes play this week?  Not knowing if he can makes this game a pass for me.  The line seems to indicate to me that most folks think he will sit it out and let Carson Wentz take the field.  Andy Reid says Mahomes “will most likely end up playing.”

(Sat Late PM) Steelers at Ravens – 6.5 (44.5):  If the Ravens win, they will tie the Steelers at 10-5-0 on top of the AFC North; if the Steelers win, they will be assured of the division championship because they will own the tiebreaker with the Ravens.  Other than that, just an ordinary game on the schedule.  The status of TJ Watt’s availability for the Steelers is important here and the spread seems to suggest that he will not play – – or not play at nearly full strength.  Watt says he is “hopeful” that he can play.

Browns at Bengals – 9 (47):  The spread opened the week at 6 points; the jump up to this level seems related to the announcement that Dorian Thompson-Robinson would be the Browns QB this week (see above).  The Bengals are still alive mathematically for the playoffs but will be eliminated with a loss here.  The Bengals are winning because their offense has been scoring points recently; the Bengals’ defense is a sieve – – and maybe that is another reason why the Browns picked this game to see what Thompson-Robinson can do…?

Lions – 6.5 at Bears (48): The Bears have lost 8 games in a row ever since giving up the Hail Mary TD to the Commanders a couple of months ago.  That losing streak has gone under the radar because of the Giants’ losing streak at franchise record levels and the Raiders’ record of 10 losses in a row.  As noted above, the Lions are forced to play their JV on defense here.  This will be only the second “outdoor game” for the Lions this year and the weather in Chicago is forecast to be about 30 degrees with winds at 14 mph.  The Bears are only at +235 on the Money Line which is a surprise given the records of the two teams.

Cards – 4 at Panthers (47.5):  This line for the spread is all over the place.  I found it as low as 3 points and as high as 5 points; if you like this game, be advised to shop around for the line.  The Total Line is far more consistent, varying by only a half point at all the books I check.  I think this is going to be a defensive game; neither offense seems scary to me.  So, I’ll take the game to stay UNDER the total here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Pats at Bills – 14 (47):  This is a squash game; the Bills are hitting on all cylinders and the Pats are not playing well at all.  Here is how the oddsmakers view the outcome of this game:

• Pats on the Money Line = +700
• Bills on the Money Line = minus-1100

For reasons I do not understand, the local CBS affiliate chose this game as the one to air in the late Sunday afternoon time slot.  I guess that means they could not get the rights to a couple of reruns from My Mother the Car.

Eagles – 3.5 at Commanders (45.5):  This too got a passing thought as the Game of the Week.  The Total Line for this game opened at 48 points and has been dropping during the week.  No, I don’t know why.  If the Eagles win, they are NFC East champs; if the Commanders win, they can still win the division theoretically.  A loss for the Commanders (that would be their sixth) would bring the Rams and/or the Seahawks into contention for what is now the Commanders’ playoff position.  I am tempted to take the Commanders plus the points here but will resist.

• Get thee behind me, Satan.

Giants at Falcons – 8.5 (41.5):  The Falcons beat the Raiders last week and they get the Giants this week.  What’s next, a game against the JV team from an Ivy League also-ran?  The Falcons can still make the playoffs but really need to win out.  I think they will dominate here; I think Michael Penix will show very well against that defense; give me the Falcons to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Titans at Colts – 3.5 (42.5):  Even at 6-8-0, the Colts can still make the playoffs; not so for the Titans.  For now, the Colts, Bengals and Dolphins have the same record; I believe a loss for any of them eliminates them from any hope of sneaking in.

Rams – 3 at Jets (46):  The Rams have looked really good the last several weeks; the Jets have played better in their last two games.  The Rams need the game; they are tied with the Seahawks at the top of the NFC West and the two teams still have a head-to-head matchup on the schedule.  The Jets are going nowhere so this is a “pride game” for them.  At the same time, this is a “body clock game” for the Rams playing in the early afternoon time slot 3 time zones east of home.

Vikes – 3 at Seahawks (42.5):  I anoint this as the Game of the Week because of its playoff implications and the questions surrounding the game.  The Vikes are 12-2-0 – – the same record as the Lions and the Eagles in the NFC.  The Seahawks are tied with the Rams for the lead in the NFC West.  The five games involving those five teams this week are all pivotal, but this one could see the Vikes slip into the lead for the NFC playoff BYE Week.  And with all that stuff to consider here is something else;

• Geno Smith has a sprained ankle.
• Can he play at all?  If so, how limited might he be?
• If he can’t go, can backup Sam Howell deal with the swarming Vikes’ defense?

I think the Vikes are primed for a big game here even on the road and I don’t like the Seahawks’ chances with either a hobbled Smith or a healthy Howell; I’ll take the Vikes and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Niners at Dolphins – 1 (45):  Both teams have underachieved expectations for 2024; neither team is playing particularly well now.  Betting on this game is akin to buying a scratch-off lottery ticket.

Jags at Raiders – 2 (40):  I called this the Dog-Breath Game of the Week last week.  I neither know who will win this game nor do I care; these teams are awful.  Their combined record as of the kickoff is 5-23-0.  Oh joy …!

(Sun Nite) Bucs – 4 at Cowboys (48):  The Cowboys record at home this year is 1-6-0; that lone win was over the Giants so maybe it shouldn’t even count.  The Cowboys defense looked good last week against the Panthers but as noted above the Bucs’ offense has been en fuego recently.

(Mon Nite) Saints at Packers – 14 (42):  This is another squash game.  The Saints are playing hard under interim head coach, Darren Rizzi, but that will not be nearly enough to stay with the Packers.  Hopefully, the Saints saw enough of Jake Haener last week; and hopefully, they will not need to turn to him save for garbage time minutes this week.

So let me review the “Betting Bundle” for this week:

• Indiana/Notre Dame UNDER 52.5
• Penn St. – 8 over SMU
• Clemson +12.5 against Texas
• Tennessee + 7.5 against Ohio St.
• Cards/Panthers UNDER 47.5
• Vikes – 3 over Seahawks
• Falcons – 8.5 over Giants

And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays for this week:

• Falcons @ minis-430
• Vikes @ minus-150
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $208

And …

• Bengals @ minus-420
• Falcons @-430
• Vikes @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $154

And …

• Commanders @ +165
• Bucs @ minus-200     $100 wager to win $298

Finally, words from Vince Lombardi:

“Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

During last year’s NFL offseason, both Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson were free agents whose reputations were “tarnished” at best.  Darnold was seen as a classical underachiever who had been taken in the Top-5 of his draft class and who never played as if he was worth that status.  Wilson was thought to be on the downward arc of his career – – if not washed up.  Both QBs proved the skeptics wrong.

Sam Darnold has led the Vikes to a 12-2-0 record equaling the Lions’ record for the lead in the NFC North Division.  The Vikes average 26.4 points per game this year; in 14 games to date in 2024, Darnold has already thrown for 500 more yards than he has ever posted in a full season previously.  Darnold is 27 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

Russell Wilson did not start the season at QB for the Steelers due to injury, but he has been the starter for the last 8 Steelers’ games and the team has gone 6-2-0 under his leadership.  So far in 2024, Wilson has thrown 13 TD passes and only 3 INTs.  Wilson is 36 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent once again at the end of this season.

One might think that the Vikes and Steelers would be scurrying around already making overtures to the agents for those two QBs, but each team has a wrinkle to iron out:

• The Vikes drafted JJ McCarthy in the first round of the Draft last April.  McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury at the end of training camp which led to Sam Darnold becoming the starter in Minnesota.  All indications are that McCarthy will be fully recovered for next year – – so what will the Vikes commit themselves to in signing Darnold once again?
• The Steelers’ situation is even more intriguing.  In addition to Wilson’s expiring contract this year, the Steelers acquired Justin Fields last Spring and like Wilson and Darnold, Justin Fields will be an unrestricted free agent once this NFL season comes to a close.  Fields started the season for the Steelers while Wilson was on the shelf and the Steelers were 4-2-0 with Fields under center.  So, what might the Steelers be doing with their two quarterbacking possibilities?

It seems to me that the Vikes can try to resign Darnold fairly aggressively since McCarthy is on a rookie contract allowing the team to have two players at the position without overloading the cap at the QB position.  McCarthy is not eligible to shop around and find himself a “better deal” so the Vikes can negotiate with Darnold knowing what their “other guy” is going to cost them in 2025 and beyond.

The Steelers are not nearly in such a position of certainty because both QBs will be able to have their agents “shop around” in an attempt to create a marketplace for the QB talents and maybe even a “bidding war”.  If it appears that both QBs are looking at getting contracts where the sum of the two is too rich for the Steelers’ cap space, the team will have to make an early decision regarding which QB to cast their lot with.

At least one of these three QBs is likely to be playing elsewhere next year – – and potentially all three of them.  Given the success all three of them had in 2024 – – far beyond what had been projected for them in 2024 – – some other teams in the league may be very interested acquiring their services for 2025 and beyond.

And just in case you think those three QBs will monopolize the spotlight in the NFL offseason, do not forget that Brock Purdy’s rookie contract is over at the end of this season too.  Purdy has been far more successful early in his career than either Darnold or Fields.  He is young (25 years old) with a record of 23-11-0 as a starting QB.  Nonetheless, there are some who call him a “system QB” – – a guy who is successful because of the offensive system he plays in rather than a guy who can be successful because of his talents in just about any competent system.  How do the Niners see Purdy as a QB going forward?  The answer to that question will become more apparent once the Niners’ season is over.

There are plenty of QB-needy teams in the NFL – – I count six of them – – and if the Steelers were to lose out on signing both Wilson and Fields in this offseason, the Steelers would quickly join that QB-needy list.  Last year’s draft class had lots of hot QB prospects; frankly, I think this year’s draft class is very thin at the QB position and if the majority of NFL scouts hold the same view, this year’s competition might be for the four QBs discussed here based on 2024 performance.

This offseason might be entertaining indeed.

Moving on – – but sticking with NFL QBs …  The Falcons announced that Michael Penix, Jr. will start this week against the woebegone NY Giants and Kirk Cousins will watch from the sidelines.  We could debate that move and wonder about its implications, but rather than that I think there is an interesting side light to that move:

• When it was assumed that Cousins would still be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game was Atlanta – 9.
• Now that Penix is known to be the QB for the Falcons, the line for the game is Atlanta – 9.
• The oddsmakers and the betting public have not moved the line at all.  Will that stability last until game time?
• What about the Total Line?  Before the announcement of the change, the Total Line was 41.5 points; now about 48 hours after the announcement of the change, the Total Line is 40.5 points.  Not much of a movement there either.

Finally, a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Precious:  Code word meaning ‘intolerable’.  Used when referring to such things as a small child’s attempt at ballet or any human-interest story airing on National Public Radio.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NBA in-season tournament for the NBA Cup is in the books.  The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder last night to win the cup; Giannis Antetokounmpo was voted the MVP of the tournament.  And don’t you feel better now that you know that?

And that is not the only inane news from the NBA this morning.  Commissioner Adam Silver announced yet another “new format” for the NBA All-Star Game.  The simple fact that the game has required “reinvention” several times over the past decade or so ought to indicate to any “critical thinker” that the exhibition itself is the problem.  But the Commish continues to tinker around the edges to make the game anything more than “not unpalatable” to a TV audience.

The fundamental problem with the game is simple:

• The players do not care about it; they do not play hard, and it is obvious to anyone watching it.
• The players cannot be “incentivized” to care about it; they are rich enough.

Just to give you an example, here are some stats from last year’s NBA All-Star Game:

• East 211   West 186
• The two teams combined to attempt 168 three-point shots (approximately one attempt per 17 seconds of game time)
• The two teams combined to commit a total of 3 personal fouls in the game.

And now, Adam Silver has another idea to inject interest into this muck and mire.  The solution is to expand the event thereby diluting whatever marginal interest there might be.  Here’s the deal:

• There will be a one-night tournament involving four teams and three games.
• Instead of 48-minute regulation NBA games, these All-Star tournament games will be decided on the basis of which team posts 40 points first.  [Aside:  At least there won’t be another game with 200+ points by one team to endure.]
• Three of the four teams will consist of 8 NBA players selected for the All-Star team.
• The fourth team will be the winning team from the “Rising Stars Game” which will continue to exist, and which will pit NBA rookies against second-year NBA players.

Fans will vote for NBA All-Stars and coaches will fill out the 24-players needed for the three All-Star teams in the tournament.  The individual teams will be selected/drafted by NBA studio analysts, Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith.  Candace Parker will serve as the “GM” of the fourth team of either rookies or second-year players.

You can stand back and assess this new thinking in several ways:

1. This is bold, new thinking about the game demonstrating that the NBA is committed to finding a way to make its All-Star Game into something fans want to see.
2. This is another example of the NBA grasping at straws to save this annual event from further embarrassment.
3. Why is this interesting?  I permanently lost interest in the NBA All-Star Game about 20 years ago.

There are a couple other ways to react to this news which are less polite:

1. You can put lipstick on a pig – – but it is still a pig.
2. You can polish a turd – – but the shine doesn’t last long.

Moving on …  There was another “announcement” recently in the sports world that seems to have flown under the radar.  In 2028, one of the new sports in the Summer Olympics will be Flag Football.  The NFL has used Flag Football for its Pro Bowl Game; the new format is not great, but it is better than what the Pro Bowl had devolved into with little to no contact in the game.  The announcement that drew little attention said that the NFL and the NFLPA and the Olympic organizers are “working on the logistics” to enable NFL players to participate.  Is that a “good thing” or not?

Finally, the fundamental problem with the NBA All-Star Game and the Pro Bowl is the lack of any defense played by the teams.  John Madden had a great observation about defense in football that will serve as today’s closing remark:

“If you see a defense team with dirt and mud on their backs, they’ve had a bad day.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

There have been lots of rumblings that the Atlanta Falcons were going to bench Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix, Jr. since the Falcons had lost four games in a row entering last night’s game against the less-than-formidable Raiders.  Not so; Kirk Cousins started the game and finished the game, and the Falcons won a slog of a game by the score of 15-9.  No, this was not a titanic defensive struggle; this game was a demonstration of offensive ineptitude.

However, the Falcons won the game and advanced their record to 7-7-0 positioning them one game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South race and two games behind the Commanders for the final playoff slot in the NFC.  That positioning vis-à-vis the Commanders is important because the Falcons and Commanders will meet in Week 17 of this season.  That game could have significant playoff consequences – – if the Falcons now go on a winning streak.

So, the Falcons’ coaches are highly motivated to put the best squad on the field in order to try to “win out”.  The fact that they went with Cousins last night and stuck with him despite the anemic offensive showing tells me that the Falcons’ coaching staff believes that Cousins is the better QB in December 2024.  Those coaches see both guys every day in practice; those guys get paid in part for their ability to spot talent and then exploit it.  Those guys also know very clearly that their jobs and their reputations depend on the outcomes of their decisions in terms of wins and losses and playoff appearances.  The Falcons’ coaches saw Cousins perform in a significant performance trough for four weeks – – and they still went with him and not Penix.

After the game, Falcons head coach, Raheem Morris was asked what he thought of Cousins’ performance.  His answer was vintage coach-speak; he left each and every path forward open:

“He’s got to play better, and, you know, obviously, you’ve got to go back, you’ve got to be able to look at everything. But, you know, he wants to play better. He’s got to play better. We’ve got to find a way to get him to play better. And, obviously, we’ll get to work tomorrow, and that’s part of our process, right? You go and look at the tape, you review with the people it needs to be reviewed with, you know, we get all the coordinators in the room, we’ll talk with everybody, and we’ve got to play better at the quarterback position.”

If I were a sadistic high school English teacher, I would make you parse that paragraph, but we are not into sadism here in Curmudgeon Central.  So, let me just leave the QB situation in Atlanta with this assessment:

• Cousins was the choice last night and the Falcons won.  Having said that, the commentary from the head coach after the game allows for – – and even invites – – more rumblings and rumors about the QB position going forward.
• By the way, the Falcons game next week is against an opponent even more woebegone than the Raiders – – the NY Giants who are 2-12-0 for the year and who have lost 9 games in a row.

Moving on – – and staying on the subject of which QB should start for a team – – let me say something that will sound outrageous at first until you read why I said it:

• I hope that Patrick Mahomes will be unable to play QB for the Chiefs next week against the Texans.

I am not rooting against the Chiefs or for the Texans with that statement.  I am not hating on Patrick Mahomes.  Here is why I think that would be an interesting happenstance:

• The Chiefs’ backup QB is Carson Wentz.  His career started off on a rocket-like trajectory and has since crumbled not quite to dust but certainly to cinders.
• With most of a season under Andy Reid’s system in KC and now with a week’s worth of practice with the first-string players, I would want to see Wentz perform in something other than “mop-up duty”.
• Can Andy Reid and his “KC-Offense” squeeze competency out of Carson Wentz in 2024?
• The Chiefs are already guaranteed to be in the playoffs so this “side quest” for the team would be interesting to observe.

Switching gears …  The Chiefs are in the AFC playoffs this year but at the other end of the AFC spectrum, you can see the New England Patriots with a 3-11-0 record.  That is pretty miserable; and if you are a Pats’ fan, you might not be thrilled to see the remaining schedule for your heroes:

• 12/22/24:  At the Bills
• 12/29/24:  Vs. the Chargers
• 1/5/25:  Vs. the Bills again

Maybe in that final game of the season, the Bills will be starting Mitchell Trubisky at QB to give Josh Allen a rest?  That is the only bright spot I see …

Finally, here is a definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

“Juice:  Something children won’t drink unless it comes in a square box with its own straw; something adults won’t drink unless it costs as much as their mocha latte and has been repackaged by corporate spin to include pomegranate, spirulina, and antioxidants.  Like anybody knows what antioxidants are anyway.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Jim Tunney died over the weekend at the age of 95.  He was a referee in the NFL from 1960 to 1990; he was an official just as the NFL was beginning to become a top TV attraction.  Tunney officiated three Super Bowl games – – Super Bowl VI, XI and XII.

Rest in peace, Jim Tunney.

I mentioned last week that LB, De’Vondre Campbell had refused to go into a game for the Niners and instead went to the locker room.  A friend sent an email comparing that situation to Antonio Brown who behaved similarly except that Brown made a show of his “retreat to the locker room” by removing his pads and walking slowly off the field without half of his uniform.  My friend’s point was that Brown never got “another chance” with an NFL team and since Brown was more of a standout at his position than Campbell is at his position, it might be very difficult for De’Vondre Campbell to find future NFL employment.

I think my friend is correct; Campbell is 31 years old, and this is his 9^th season as a linebacker in the league.  He was voted as an All-Pro in 2021 but over those 9 seasons he has only recorded 9.5 sacks.  Until last week, he was rather durable for a linebacker playing in 13 or more games in 6 of his 9 seasons.  As a defender you could describe him as “solid” and “productive”, but I doubt if you would climb to the level of “outstanding” or “great”.  And I think a player would have to be considered at least “outstanding” to be considered by another team after what has been described as Campbell’s behavior last Thursday night.

Google is really amazing.  In the recesses of my memory, I thought there had been another player who “retired” at halftime and just rode off into the sunset – – but I could not put a name or a situation to that memory.  So, I entered into Google:

• “NFL player retires halftime”

Indeed, my dim memory was correct; it happened.  In 2018, Vontae Davis was a CB with the Bills; he had signed a 1-year deal with the team in the offseason.  After giving up a TD pass in the first half of a game that season, Davis took himself out of the game, told coach Sean McDermott that he was “done” and then just disappeared from football.  Davis never tried to come back to the NFL and there is no indication that any teams reached out to him about a return.  So, there is another incident where a player left the game in medias res never to see the field again.  I suspect De’Vondre Campbell’s NFL career has come to a conclusion.

Moving on – – but staying on the general topic of “withdrawing” …  The Independence Bowl game was scheduled to be Marshall University versus Army.  The NCAA transfer portal managed to attract at least 25 players from the Marshall roster and those players were not going to play in that minor bowl game and risk injury there which would negatively impact on their attractiveness in that portal.  No problem, all the bowl organizers have to do is to invite another team and stage the game.  Except there is one little glitch; when Marshall recused itself from the game, there were no other “six-win teams” – – i.e. bowl eligible teams – – waiting for an invitation to the game.

So, the NCAA got to dig into its arcane rulebook to identify the team that had won 5 games in the season and among all the “5-win teams” it had the best record of having team members make academic progress toward a degree from the school.  Yes, the fantasy of the “student-athlete” lives on in 2024 alongside all the NIL money and the transfer portal which translates into universal free agency among players.

The replacement for Marshall will be La-Tech which finished the season with a 5-7 record.  It is good to know that the players on that team are making academic progress toward their degrees because the La-Tech schedule from last year is unimpressive at best.

• La Tech finished 4-4 in CUSA games.  The fifth win was against a Division 1-AA opponent.
• La Tech played 5 games against teams that were on my SHOE watch list at some point last season.  Their record in those 5 games was 3-2.
• Unimpressive …

Finally, for no obvious reason, I want to close today with this pronouncement from Sigmund Freud:

“The first human who hurled an insult instead of a stone was the founder of civilization.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Country music performer, Garth Brooks said:

“That smell of freshly cut grass makes me think of Friday night football in high school. The smell of popcorn and cigar smoke reminds me of the stadium.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central all I need is to check the calendar to make me think of Friday and the need to create another Football Friday, and so as Jackie Gleason would say, “And away we go…”

I shall begin with last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College spreads and totals were 3-0 – – Excellent!
• College Money Line Parlays were 2-0 for “Profit” of $575 – – Excellent!
• NFL spreads and totals were 1-1 – – Not good!
• NFL Money Line Parlays were 0-2 for “Loss” of $200 – – Bad!

The Linfield University Wildcats saw their season come to an end last week when they lost their Division III Playoff Game to Mary Hardin-Baylor by a score of 18-13.  Linfield finished the season with a 10-2 record and were undefeated in their Northwest Conference games.  Until next season …

 

College Football Commentary

 

You may recall that when Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to take the head coaching job at LSU, he said that he wanted a chance to win the national championship and that he might get to do that at LSU but not at Notre Dame.  Don’t look now but Notre Dame is in the CFP and LSU will be taking on Baylor on New Year’s Eve in something called the “Kinder’s Texas Bowl”.

And speaking of random bowl games, let me make a couple of comments about some of the minor ones:

• Salute to Veterans Bowl:  W. Michigan plays South Alabama.  Both teams are 6-6 this year meaning one of these bowl participants will end the year with a losing record.  Quite the Salute to Veterans …
• Boca Raton Bowl:  James Madison versus W. Kentucky.  These are both Sun Belt Conference teams [Yawn!] – – but at least they both have winning records…
• Cure Bowl:  Ohio takes on Jacksonville State; it’s the MAC versus CUSA.  Just what is that supposed to “Cure” … ?
• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers versus UTSA Roadrunners.  This should be the Avian Bowl, right …?
• Famous Idaho Potato bowl:  Northern Illinois Huskies play the Fresno State Bulldogs.  This should be the Canine Bowl, right … ?
• GameAbove Sports Bowl:  Pitt takes on Toledo from the MAC.  Pitt arrives at the game having lost 5 games in a row.
• First Responder Bowl:  North Texas versus Texas State.   Why isn’t this game being played in Texas?

And here are a couple of the bowl games not involved in the CFP that should be worth the trouble to tune in for:

• Birmingham Bowl 12/27/24:  Vandy versus Georgia Tech.  Both teams were surprisingly good in 2024.
• PopTarts Bowl 12/28/24:  Miami versus Iowa State.  Both teams had realistic shots at the CFP; this could be a very good game.
• Alamo Bowl 12/28/24:  Colorado versus BYU.  Both teams are in the Big 12 and both finished the season with winning records.
• ReliaQuest Bowl 12/31/24:  Michigan versus Alabama.  ‘Nuff said.

A couple of weeks ago, I touted RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.) here and suggested you check him out.  He is a Heisman finalist this year and has a realistic shot at breaking the college record for yards gained rushing in a season held by a guy you have probably heard of – – Barry Sanders.  I stand by my recommendation to watch Jeanty play and by my assessment that he is a significant talent.  Jeanty will next be on TV on New Year’s Eve playing against the winner of the Penn St./SMU CFP game.

With that as a basis, let me also call to your attention another college RB this year – – Cam Skattebo from Arizona St.  This guy is also very good and an exciting runner; against Iowa St. in the Big-12 championship game, he carried the ball 16 times for 170 yards and 2 TDs.  The next time Skattebo will take the field is on New Year’s Day against the winner of the Texas/Clemson CFP game.

UMass joined Division 1-A football competition in 2012; since that “elevation” the Minutemen have never won more than four games in a season and they have gone through four head coaches in those last 12 seasons.  Next up will be Joe Harasymiak who will lead UMass into the MAC starting in 2025. Goodluck to Coach Harasymiak and to the team in MAC competition next year.  I know I can’t wait for a showdown between UMass and Kent State on a random Tuesday night in November of next year …

Another college coaching move involves Dan Mullen whose career arc seems to be inverted:

• Mullen was head coach at Florida; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was head coach at Mississippi St.; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was just hired as head coach at UNLV.
• Connect the dots and the next job for Dan Mullen is …?  UMass?

In college games from last week:

Georgia 22  Texas 19 (OT):  It took Georgia more than the allotted 60 minutes of football to win the SEC Championship Game and they did it with their starting QB on the sidelines for the second half, but the Bulldogs pulled a rabbit out of a hat and won this game.  The Longhorns have lost twice in 2024 and both losses were to Georgia.

Clemson 34  SMU 31:  Clemson led this game 31-14 at the start of the fourth quarter and held off a big rally by SMU to become the ACC Champion for 2024.  SMU outgained Clemson by 125 yards for the game – – to no avail.

Oregon 45  Penn St. 37:  The Nittany Lions outgained Oregon for the game, but two INTs by the Ducks gave them just enough edge to post a victory here as Oregon is the Big-10 champion in its first year of Big-10 competition.

 Boise St. 21  UNLV 7:  Ashton Jeanty carried 32 times and gained 209 yards plus a TD in the game assuring Boise St. a slot in the CFP.  As it turns out, they also got a BYE week out of the deal.  The Boise St. defense was on display in the game; here are the drives by UNLV for the first three quarters of the game:

• 5 plays  11  yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  6 yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  minus-8 yards  PUNT
• 9 plays  50 yards  MISSED FIELD GOAL
• 3 plays  4  yards  PUNT
• 2 plays  0 yards  INT
• 7 plays  12 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  81 yards  TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 3 plays  2 yards  PUNT

Army 35  Tulane 14:  Tulane had – – supposedly – – the high-octane offense here and Army was more of a “ground and pound” sort of team.  Tulane gained 210 yards passing as compared to Army’s 17 yards passing (on 2 for 2 attempts by the way).  But the Cadets also managed to rush the ball for 335 yards in the game and forced 2 turnovers to win the game going away.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Navy vs. Army – 6.5 (39):  The two teams combined to produce a record of 19-4 this season.  I have seen large parts of 3 Navy games this year and 2 Army games this year.  Army is the better team.  Would I lay points in a rivalry game like this? No thank you, but I must admit I am tempted to take the game to stay UNDER.  Nonetheless, I’ll just watch Army/Navy and enjoy the all-out effort by everyone on every play.

 

NFL Commentary

 

The NY Jets have been mathematically eliminated from the AFC Playoffs as a result of their loss to the Dolphins last week.  Given the return to availability of Aaron Rodgers and given the performance of the Jet’s defense in 2023, I did not foresee this state of affairs.  I did not expect the Jets to make a run to the Super Bowl this year, but I also did not expect them to be mathematically eliminated with 4 games left on the schedule and a record of 3-10-0.

Perhaps I should have let recent history be my guide to expectations for the Jets.  The last time the Jets made the AFC playoffs was in 2010.  Here are some milestones from that year to refresh your memory:

• The iPad was first offered to the public.
• The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico happened.
• Rex Ryan was the head coach of the NY Jets
• Instagram launched
• “Arab Spring” was a big thing
• Mark Sanchez was the starting QB for the NY Jets.
• This was two years BEFORE the Butt-Fumble.

It has been a long and frustrating time for Jets’ fans, and it does not look as if there is a bright light ahead in their tunnel.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well over the next four games because I do believe he wants to play again in 2025 – – but not for the Jets.  Therefore, he needs to put “good performance” on tape for other offensive coaches to see and evaluate – – and then hopefully lead them to offer him a contract.

My conclusion that Rodgers wants to play in 2025 derives from me practicing psychoanalysis without a license and at a distance – – never really particularly reliable.  In the vernacular, I think Aaron Rodgers is an “attention whore”; I think he derives great satisfaction from being the center of attention whereby he can offer up some of his well-beyond normal viewpoints on everything from vaccine effectiveness to ayahuasca value.  Now because I think that is the case, I think that Aaron Rodgers is smart enough to realize that unless he is a starting NFL QB, his purchase on that outré limb of the social tree is not very secure.  When he is merely “Aaron Rodgers – – Very Wealthy Former Athlete with Weirdo Views”, he is going to have far fewer opportunities to be a center of attention, and I think he does not relish that situation in his future.

So, as of today, the Jets have the 7^th pick in the Draft next year.  I think Rodgers can win the Jets one game and maybe two games in the remaining four games and that will not give the Jets nearly as valuable a Draft pick as they have now.  But Rodgers does not plan or want to be with the Jets in 2025 or beyond, so do not be surprised if he ups his game and “leads” the Jets to at least a 4-13-0 record if not a 5-12-0 record.

Maybe there is something in the water supply in NYC that makes football players prone to ineptitude.  As bad as a 3-10-0 record by the Jets may be, the other NY team – – the Giants – – are worse at 2-11-0 and the Giants do not have a QB on their roster who might – – potentially – – carry the team to a couple of wins.  Aaron Rodgers may be having the worst year of his career, but if you had to pick a NYC QB to win a key game, you would surely take Rodgers over Drew Lock or “Tommy Cutlets”.

I was looking ahead in the NFL schedule to decide what to say about the Jets for the rest of the year and ran across the fact that the Raiders and the Jags will face off in Las Vegas next week in a 4:30 PM time slot.  I want to go on record now without having spent the time and energy to look at the complete NFL card for next weekend and say that the Jags/Raiders game on December 22^nd 2024 will be the pre-emptive Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

One more note from my looking ahead at the rest of the NFL schedule …  The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently 10-3-0 and lead the AFC North.  The Steelers are a very good team, and they are benefiting from the reincarnation of Russell Wilson as their QB.  Having said all that positive stuff, the Steelers’ schedule from here to the end of the regular season is brutal; the schedule maker did the Steelers no favors down the stretch with this parade of opponents:

• 12/15/24  @ Philly   Eagles are 11-2-0 as of today.
• 12/21/24  @ Baltimore  Ravens are 8-5-0 as of today.
• 12/25/24  Vs. KC  Chiefs are 12-1-0 as of today.
• 1/5/25  Vs. Cincy  Bengals are 5-8-0 as of today.
• Combined, the next 4 Steelers’ opponents are 36-16-0.  Wow!

Here is an interesting stat I ran across; it says that the Cards and Kyler Murray are far more formidable early in the season than late in the season.  Make of this what you will:

• Cards are 22-16-1 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 8 or earlier.
• Cards are 12-28-0 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 9 or later.

The Miami Dolphins and Odell Beckham, Jr. have come to a mutual agreement and a parting of the ways; OBJ has been released.  This has not been a good season for the WR; he has appeared in 9 games this year with 9 receptions for 55 yards.

Here is a look at some of last week’s NFL games.

Bengals 27  Cowboys 20:  If you have been an NFL fan for a long enough period of time, you will understand that the Bengals won this game because of a second “Leon Lett Incident” in the late stages of the game.  If that reference does not mean anything to you, Google is your friend.

Vikes 42  Falcons 21:  At one point in this game, the score was tied 21-21.  Kirk Cousins’ “revenge game” did not play out well for the Falcons’ QB.

Jags 10  Titans 6:  The Titans turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Jags’ 10-yardline.  The Jags did not really “win” this game; they merely “avoided losing” this game.

Saints 14  Giants 11: A blocked field goas at the end of the game by the Saints prevented OT.  For those fans who were forced to watch this game as a “local game”, that must have been a blessing; no one would have wanted this game to go on beyond 60 minutes of regulation time.

Seahawks 30  Cards 18:  The Cards had a hot streak in mid-season but that appears to be over and done with.  The Seahawks and Rams look to be the class of the NFC West.

Rams 44  Bills 42:  The score does not indicate it, but both teams played decent defense in this game; the score reflects that both offenses were on fire all night long.  All Bills’ QB Josh Allen did was to throw for 3 TDs and rush for 3 more.  Not a bad day at the office …  And yet, it was not enough.  The Bills scored 6 TDs in the game and did not turn the ball over.  That leads to this statistical oddity:

• Since the NFL/AFL merger, teams scoring 6 TDs and managing never to turn the ball over in a game were 245-0.
• Now they are 245-1 …

Chiefs 19  Chargers 17:  This time, the Chiefs’ miracle ending was a chip shot field goal that “doinked” off the upright and dropped behind the crossbar as time expired.  Why not?

Lions 34  Packers 31:  The Lions were 7 for 15 in third-down conversions and 4 for 5 in fourth down conversions.  One of those fourth down conversions was in the final two minutes that set up the winning field goal in the game.

 

NFL Games This Week

 

            There are no more BYE Weeks in the NFL regular season; there will be a full slate of 16 games each weekend from here to the end of the season.  Many of the games will be in non-traditional time slots, but there will be sixteen of them every weekend.

Interestingly, “home field advantage” seems to have taken a week off in the NFL this week.  Seven of the fifteen remaining games for this weekend have the visiting team favored by 2.5 points (Packers) to 16 points (Ravens).

In last night’s action the Rams beat the Niners 12-6.  Yes, all the scores were field goals; neither endzone lost its virginity for the entirety of the game.  The Total Line for the game closed at 48.5 points; yes, there was bad weather in the first half, but people playing the UNDER were never worried.  The Rams’ hopes for the playoffs – – and even for the division championship of the NFC West – – remain alive.  The Niners are not mathematically eliminated but it would take an intervention by someone’s Fairy Godmother to get the Niners into this year’s playoffs.

According to Niner’s coach, Kyle Shanahan, LB, De’Vondre Campbell refused to into the game in the second half last night.  Instead of going onto the field as instructed, Campbell decided to take his game to the locker room.  According to Spotrac.com, Campbell signed a 1-year contract with the Niners last year; that contract may have reached termination last night.  This will not end well; Campbell also left the Packers with a bit of drama in the past.

Commanders – 7.5 at Saints (43.5):  The spread opened at 3.5 points and the Total Line opened at 47.5.  When folks began to realize that the Saints would be starting either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener at QB for the game, both lines moved significantly.  Some local sports radio shows here have tried to play this up as a “Chase Young Revenge Game” for the Saints’ DE.  Any port in a storm is my reaction there.  The Commanders had their BYE Week last week, so they are “rested” and “ready to go”.  I would greatly prefer to play this game without that hook on top of the full TD spread, but as of this morning such is not the case.  Nonetheless, I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Texans – 2.5 (47):  The Texans have a comfy 2-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South; the Dolphins cannot win the AFC East, but they still have a low-probability of being part of the AFC Playoffs.  The motivation edge here is clearly with the Dolphins.

Jets – 3.5 at Jags (40):  This game was ever so close to getting the Dog-Breath label for this week.  This is one of the games the Jets can/should win and when/if they do, it will hurt their Draft position come April 2025.  The Jags are a complete mess.  If QB is “the most important position”, then this game boils down to Aaron Rodgers versus Mac Jones.  Normally, I stay far away from games involving two bad teams, but I really do think the Jets have the edge here; so, I’ll take the Jets on the road and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bengals – 5 at Titans (46):  The Bengals finally found an opponent last week who could make a bigger blunder at a critical time than the Bengals had been doing for the season.  Was that a turning point for the Bengals?  The Titans faced a mediocre defense last week (Jags) and scored the grand total of 6 points; this is another severely flawed defense opposing the Titans’ offense.  Does that Titans’ unit have sufficient pride and sufficient talent to take advantage here?

Ravens – 16 at Giants (42.5): The spread opened at 12.5 points and then it was revealed that Drew Lock was in a “walking boot” and that “Tommy Cutlets” was getting the reps with the starting team during the week.  The Ravens are in a comfortable position with regard to making the playoffs; they still have a chance to win their division if for no other reason than the Steelers (current AFC North leader) has a very difficult schedule between now and January 5^th (see above).  I do not play NFL games with double-digit spreads; so, this one is off the board for me.  But I do think the Ravens will coast to a victory here.  For your information, the Ravens are mnus-1600 on the Money Line.

Chiefs – 4 at Browns (43):  The Chiefs are 12-1-0; the Browns are 3-10-0.  This short-priced spread reflects the reality that the Chiefs are 12-1-0 but they only have a point differential of 56 points.  By comparison, the Lions also are 12-1-0 but the Lions have a point differential of 183 points.  Given the way things have played out this year, expect the Browns’ QB, Jameis Winston to throw for at least 350 yards and also to throw a couple of really hurtful INTs allowing the Chiefs to prevail.  But by more than 4 points … ?  Here is a trend for those of you who follow such things:

• In their last 7 games, the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread.

Cowboys at Panthers – 2.5 (43):  Can you believe that a team that went 2-15 last year is the favorite over “America’s Team” this week?  In terms of a battle between gigantic owners’ egos, this game has to be monumental.  The Panthers’ record is 3-10-0 but they have played some good teams very tough in the last several weeks.  I think the Panthers extinguish the Cowboys’ playoff hopes with a win in this game; I’ll take the Panthers to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Eagles – 5.5 (43):  I read somewhere that the Steelers have not won over the Eagles in Philly since 1965.  The Steelers were not very good in 1965; their record for the year was 2-12-0.  The 2025 iteration of the Steelers is much better than that.  Here is a betting stat to keep in mind for this game:

• The Steelers have been underdogs 5 times this season.
• The Steelers won all 5 of those games outright.

Bills at Lions – 2 (53.5):  This is the Game of the Week; it just might be a Super Bowl preview game.  As important as the Steelers/Eagles game is to both teams, this one is the standout game this week; the two teams combine to bring a record of 22-4-0 to the kickoff.  Both teams aspire to the BYE Week in the playoffs in their conference; for the Lions, it means winning to maintain the lead they have; for the Bills it means win or fall way behind the Chiefs with not a lot of time remaining.  The Total Line for this game opened at 51.5 points and has been inching upward all week long; I think this will be a shootout where two very good offenses exploit two good but not great defenses; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Colts at Broncos – 4 (44):  As of now, the Broncos are a wild card team in the AFC Playoffs and the Colts are chasing them for that final playoff slot.  This game is must-win for the Colts, but I think that the Broncos’ defense is good enough to keep Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson in check.  So, can Colts’ RB, Jonathan Taylor win the day for Indy?  More importantly, can Anthony Richardson avoid doing something that assures a loss for the Colts?

Bucs at Chargers – 3 (45):  The Bucs have clawed their way back to the top of the NFC South and hold a 1-game lead over the Falcons who are road favorites this week.  The Chargers lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs last week (see above) and really do not want to lose another and get deep into the muck and mire of wildcard playoff tiebreakers.

Pats at Cards – 6 (46.5):  This game – – like the Jets/Jags game got some thought as a Dog-Breath game – – but the Cards are still viable as division champs of the NFC West.  So, let it be sufficient to say that the Cards must win this game and should win it comfortably.  But do I trust Kyler Murray …?  The Pats had last week off to get ready for the season’s “home stretch”; the Cards lost their third game in a row last week.

(Sun Nite) Packers – 2.5 at Seahawks (45.5):  As of this morning, both teams are “in the playoffs”.  The Seahawks’ position is slightly more precarious; as of today, they are a half-game ahead of the Rams in their division; meanwhile, the Packers are comfortably positioned in the wildcard chase.  Motivation edge goes to the Seahawks at home.  Offensive firepower edge goes to the Packers on the road.

(Mon Nite early) Bears at Vikes – 7 (44):  I am sure the ESPN execs were happy to get MNF double headers during the regular season and they paid top-dollar for them.  So in this particular double header, this game is the better of the two by a lot – – even though the Bears have lost 7 games in a row after losing to the Commanders on that Hail Mary Miracle.

(Mon Nite late) Falcons – 4 at Raiders (44.5):  Here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Falcons bring a 4-game losing streak to the game; the Raiders see that losing streak and raise it by an added 5 games.  It’s a shame there is no way for both teams to lose here to maintain the “tradition” they have created for themselves.  If the Falcons fall behind, is this where they turn to Michael Penix, Jr.?  Who will be the Raiders’ QB?  Aiden O’Connell with his bone bruise or Desmond Ridder who would seek to resurrect his career with a win here?

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Commanders – 7.5 over Saints
• Jets – 3.5 over Jags
• Panthers – 2.5 over Cowboys
• Bills/Lions OVER 53.5

And here are three Money Line Parlays

• Army @ minus-200
• Panthers @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $150

And …

• Bengals @ minus-230
• Commanders @ minus-370
• Vikes 2 minus-300     $100 wager to win $143

And a Money Line Parlay with “plus-money” on all three legs …

• Dolphins @ +135
• Steelers @ +200
• Bills @ +125     $100 wager to win $1,486

Finally, let me close with this from Vince Lombardi:

“If it doesn’t matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Obviously, the biggest sports news overnight is that Bill Belichick and UNC have reached an agreement for him to be the head football coach in Chapel Hill.  Reports say that the contract is for 5 years at $10M per year.  Clearly, there are at least several million reasons why that job interested him.

Bill Belichick’s experience regarding collegiate football is limited to his comments made as this contract was announced:

“I am excited for the opportunity at UNC-Chapel Hill.  I grew up around college football with my Dad and treasured those times.  I have always wanted to coach in college and now I look forward to building the football program in Chapel Hill.”

Lots of folks have weighed in with their beliefs as to how this will all turn out.  I believe that this is the sort of social experiment that has no real precedent; therefore, I will admit from the outset that I have no idea how it will all turn out.  But I am going to be very interested to see how it progresses because:

• Bill Belichick is 72 years old.
• His NFL experience should translate to the practice field and the sidelines.
• His NFL experience does not include a heavy emphasis on recruiting.
• His fistful of Super Bowl rings might be a powerful player recruiting tool.
• His fistful of Super Bowl rings guarantees that he will have a great set of assistant coaches.
• His “dour disposition” might be a negative player recruiting tool.
• His age may be a negative recruiting tool with “teenage players”.
• His NFL experience does not involve every player on his team achieving free agency every year which is what the NCAA transfer portal provides.
• His NFL experience involved keeping one very wealthy man (Robert Kraft) happy; at UNC he will have to keep lots of very wealthy donors happy.

You get the idea here.  The best thing to do here is to sit back and pour yourself some coffee – – or an adult beverage if you prefer – – and see how all of this plays out.  I can think of only one situation that might be similar to this one.  In the 1990s, Bill Walsh had retired as the head coach of the Niners.  He took that job after a stint as the head coach at Stanford’ and after his retirement from the NFL, he returned to Stanford as the head coach for three seasons.

In Walsh’s first year back at Stanford, the Cardinal tied for first place in the PAC-10 conference and finished the year ranked #9 in the country.  The next two seasons were not nearly as successful; the combined record for those two seasons was 7-14-1.  That is awfully unstable footing from which to project the “fate” of the “UNC/Belichick Experiment”, but I don’t have anything better to offer.

Moving on …  This next item is a good news/bad news situation.

• The good news for the NBA is that they have a new media rights deal in place that will bring $76B to the league over an 11-year time span.
• The bad news – – for the networks – – is that NBA ratings are in the dumpster at the moment.

The NBA is currently in the midst of the NBA Cup tournament – – in case you had not noticed – – and the entire NBA Cup charade was created to generate interest in early-season NBA games.   Even so, ratings are down, and they are down significantly.  Consider:

• TV ratings for NBA Cup games are down 10% from last year’s NBA Cup games.
• TV ratings for NBA games on ESPN are down 28% as compared to 2023.  Moreover, those 2023 ratings were down almost 10% from the same time period in 2022.

When I saw those numbers reported, I wondered if they represented a decline in sports viewing generally in 2024.  They do not.

• NFL ratings are up this year over last year.
• MLB’s playoffs and World Series rating were up this year over last year.
• March Madness ratings were up in 2024 – – albeit only slightly.
• WNBA ratings – – riding the Caitlin Clark/Angel Reese wave – – almost doubled in 2024 as compared to 2023.

I don’t think the NBA ratings drop can be attributed to any tectonic shift in America’s consumption of sports on TV.  I think the NBA’s “problems” come down to four issues:

1. The regular season is too long, and it lacks suspense.
2. Too often as I watch an NBA game, it is painfully obvious that some of the players on the court do not care about the game they are taking part in.  The lack of “hustle” or “effort” or “intensity” is really off-putting.
3. There are not nearly enough “stars” for fans to attach themselves to; that is why you will rarely see a national telecast of Pistons/Trailblazers or Hornets/Jazz in 2024 or 2025.
4. Far too often, NBA games on TV devolve into 3-point shooting contests except there are more people on the court than in the original 3-point shooting contests invented for NBA All-Star week.

[Aside:  I went to last night’s NBA box scores.  Hawks/Knicks tried 73 3-point shots; Warriors/Rockets tried 65 3-point shots.  In a combined 96 minutes of basketball, those games involved 138 3-point shots.  From a viewing perspective that deserves a hearty “Ho-hum!”]

Finally, I alluded above to the possibility that Bill Belichick might have some difficulty “relating to” young recruits; so, let me close with these two quotes from Coach Belichick that illustrate that concern:

“I think it’s important for us, as a team, to know each other. Know our teammates and our coaches. To interact with them is more important than to be ‘liked’ by whoever on Chatrun.”

And …

“As you know, I’m not on SnapFace and all that, so I don’t really get those. I’m really just worried about getting our team ready to go.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

I have lived in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington DC for almost 55 years.  I grew up reading newspapers – – morning and evening editions – – and that tradition continues to this day except that there do not seem to be any evening newspapers any more.  Obviously, I have been a reader of the Washington Post for a long time now.   Back in the 1980s, the Post hired Thomas Boswell as a sports columnist and he plied his trade with the paper until his retirement in 2021.  Let me give you a synoptic view of Thomas Boswell:

• When he writes about any sport or any subject related to sports, he is merely “Very Good”.
• When he writes about baseball, you need to sit down, put your phone on silent, and block out any distractions while you read.  One does not merely read a Boswell on baseball piece, one experiences it.

I learned this morning – – by reading the Washington Post naturally – – that Thomas Boswell will be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame this summer for his writings over the years.  It is an honor well-deserved.  Every once in a while, Boswell “comes out of retirement” for a cameo appearance in the Sports Section and coincidentally, he has a column in today’s Post concurrent with the announcement of his election to the Hall of Fame.  Here is a link to Boswell’s column today; I commend it to your reading.

Moving on …  When the NY Jets lost to the Miami Dolphins last weekend, it did two things:

1. It kept the Dolphins’ playoff hopes alive – – and on life support in the “NFL’s ICU”
2. It dropped the Jets’ record to 3-10 and eliminated them from the playoffs.

This year marks the 14^th consecutive season where the Jets will be watching the playoffs from the comfort of their living rooms, and it opened up speculation that the Jets might – – or even should – – tank the rest of the season to get the best possible draft position.   As of this morning, the Jets would draft 7^th next April.  If you roam around the sports websites this morning, you can find more than a few headlines with variants on the Jets saying “No tank you” to any such suggestions.

While it is easy to conclude that tanking a current season guaranteed to be a bad one at best is a good idea, I do not think tanking makes much sense and I do not think tanking as an intentional act can be done effectively.  For a team to tank a season – – lose on purpose to get a better draft slot – – requires several conscious choices:

• The losing must be done with a patina of effort on the surface.  If defenses use matador-like techniques instead of tackling, it will diminish the product itself and could bring down the “Wrath of the Commish” as the guardian of the “Integrity of the Game”.
• Players need to look like they are trying – – but not to play as well as they possibly can.
• Coaches must create game plans that are doomed as soon as the ink dries on the play sheets.
• GMs would need to appear to be laser-focused on drafting and scouting and nothing else.
• Owners need to be on board too.
• Team shills must be willing and able tools in the plan going forth on local sports radio programs and feeding positive notes to local writers to keep fans from turning away permanently.

Other than all that, tanking should be a piece of cake.  Except … what is in it for the various actors there to do what needs to be done?

Most contracts in the NFL are not guaranteed so players who do not play as well as they can will put “on film” a few games of diminished performance.  If/when they get cut from the team that is now “tanking” as the team “goes in a different direction”, those “bad games” will not make them valuable commodities to other teams.  Participating in a “tanking scheme” does not enhance individual player value; for them, it is a bad economic choice.

Coaches on a team that is bad enough even to consider tanking are surely on a hot seat if not odds-on favorites to be fired at the end of the “tanking season”.  Unless those coaches have decided that this miserable season is the end of their coaching careers – – hanging up the whistle so to speak – – they too have an economic motivation to stay away from a tanking endeavor.

GMs for a team bad enough to think about tanking will be asked about how such a roster came to be and with such questioning will come some jeopardy for their jobs.

The owner of a tanking team would need to have sufficient ego-strength to withstand the scorn and the invectives that would come his/her way.  In general, NFL owners have large egos but not necessarily ones that are robust in times of derision.

It seems to me that the only individuals who would take to their task(s) enthusiastically and effectively are the team shills.  Putting lipstick on a pig is the ultimate challenge for a group of folks in the PR and Communications Departments; so, making a “tanking team” seem like loveable losers and valiant warriors struggling against all odds would be an ultimate opportunity.

Clearly teams that look at the calendar in early December and see their record at 3-10 – – or even worse if you are on the Raiders or the Giants this year – – will approach each game with a diminished sense of urgency as compared to teams “on the bubble” for the playoffs.  But tanking is much more than diminished urgency; tanking involves intent to fail.  And I don’t see where many of the participants in such an action have a motivation to take part.

Finally, apropos of nothing, I will close with this thought from Hunter S. Thompson:

“I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they’ve always worked for me.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………

 

 

Let me take you back in time to about 2021.  The KC Chiefs were dominating the AFC standings averaging more than 28 points per game.  The Offensive Coordinator was Eric Bienemy and when he was interviewed for some head coaching vacancies and did not get any of them, lots of sports pundits suggested racism was at play.  Bienemy returned to the Chiefs for the 2022 season for another dominant season where the team averaged over 29 points per game.  Once again, no head coaching offers came his way and he left the Chiefs – – ostensibly to get out from under the shadow of Andy Reid there – – and became the Commanders’ Offensive Coordinator in 2023.

Once again, columnists and TV talking heads danced around the “racism flagpole” asserting that such a lateral move to prove oneself would not happen to a white Offensive Coordinator.  Let me insert here for the sake of clarity:

• Racism exists in the United States in 2024.  Notwithstanding the twice-elected Barrack Obama as President of the United States, this is not a “post-racial society” that we live in today.  Eric Bienemy may indeed have been given higher hurdles to cross than white coaching candidates were given.  And, until we know the inner workings of the minds of the people conducting the interviews and making the hiring decisions, that can only be a conjecture.

Picking up the story … Eric Bienemy came to the Washington Commanders with great fanfare; all through the offseason and in training camp he was portrayed as a tough-love coach who held everyone accountable for every assignment – – whatever that means specifically.  And then the 2023 season began.

• In 2022, the Commanders were 8-8-1 and scored a total of 321 points (18.9 points per game).  It was the Commanders’ stingy defense in 2022 that produced that even record not the offense.
• In 2023 with Eric Bienemy directing the offense – – basically the same personnel as in 2022 – – the Commanders were 4-13-0 and scored a total of 329 points (19.4 points per game).  The Commanders’ defense fell apart and the defense was mainly responsible for the collapse in the record.

However, look at the offensive production.  The addition of Eric Bienemy and his “coach ‘em up” abilities increased point production by all of 8 points in 17 games.  The existence of racism in the United States has no bearing on those numbers.  The sports pundit class was silent at the end of the Commanders’ 2023 season on the subject of the mediocre team offense; the pundits were far more focused on the new team ownership group needing to clean house and get a new coach to create a new culture for the team – – and I do not recall any of them beating a drum for Eric Bienemy to be that new coach.

They say that a new broom sweeps clean, and Eric Bienemy lost his job in Washington with the arrival of new owners.  But he landed the job as the Offensive Coordinator at UCLA which was moving into the Big-10 Conference for 2024.  So how did that work out?

• In 2023 – – while Eric Bienemy toiled with the Commanders – – the UCLA Bruins averaged 26.5 points per game.  They ranked 70^th in the country in scoring in 2023; that is certainly not impressive.
• In 2024 – – with Eric Bienemy in charge – – the UCLA Bruins averaged 18.4 points per game.  They ranked 126^th in the country in scoring in 2024; that is certainly even less impressive than the 2023 performance.

Once again, the existence of racism in the United States has no bearing on those numbers.  And late last week, Eric Bienemy was fired by UCLA as their Offensive Coordinator.  His agent said that this was the plan all along and that Eric Bienemy had always expected to return to the NFL for the 2025 season.  We shall see; my guess is that he will do so and will likely do so as an Offensive Coordinator once again.

I have no quarrel with Eric Bienemy; my “issues” are with the sports punditry class which is now dead silent about how he has been held back by obvious racial motivations.  Might they not even suggest that perhaps – – just maybe – – they were wrong in alleging racism over the past several years?  Is there no room to suggest that perhaps Eric Bienemy’s laudable performances in KC with the Chiefs had a to do with the presence of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce – – not to mention Andy Reid.

Like sports columnists and TV talking heads, I too am in the business of offering opinions on things related to sports.   And one of the guarantees that comes with being in the business of offering opinions is this:

• If you have not yet been wrong in any of your opinions, you soon will be.

For example, I offered my opinion that Tom Brady would not be a good color analyst because I did not think he ever looked comfortable behind a microphone.  I believe I was wrong in that assessment; Tom Brady has obviously worked on “learning the ropes” of sports broadcasting; he is significantly better now than he was back in September.  He is not John Madden as a color analyst – – and may never become that good – – but he has improved well beyond what I would have expected.  I was wrong.

Prior to the start of NFL seasons, I predict – – offer my opinion – – on how the regular season will turn out.  And then, in January or February, I go back and point out where I was right and where I was wrong.  It is usually slightly embarrassing to do so, but the fact that I continue to do so proves conclusively that it is not fatal to offer a wrong opinion.

I do not know why Eric Bienemy never got the call to be a head coach.  If indeed any hiring official denied him a chance as a head coach based even in a small part by his skin color, I would need to consult a Thesaurus to come up with a list of unflattering adjectives to describe that hiring official.  But I can never know that to be the case, and it is exactly that inability to know that to be the case which makes it improper to assert that it is or has been the case.

Sports organizations in the US have shown that they have a way of dealing with racism when it is known and proven to exist.  Marge Schott was forced to sell the Cincinnati Reds; Donald Sterling was forced to sell the Los Angeles Clippers; George Preston Marshall was forced to integrate his team and organization.  Obvious racism existed in those cases and the sports world reacted to correct those situations.  If similarly obvious racism comes to exist related to Eric Bienemy’s coaching career, precedent says that the sports world will not allow it to continue to exist.  There is no benefit to be derived from sports pundits emulating “The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf”.

Finally, let me close today with these words from Professor Alan Dershowitz:

“I think that lawyers are terrible at admitting that they’re wrong. And not just admitting it; also realizing it. Most lawyers are very successful, and they think that because they’re making money and people think well of them, they must be doing everything right.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Where to start today …?  Contrary to normal behavior, Scott Boras had his premier free agent sign before Christmas this year making a big news splash but keeping the “drama” to a minimum length.  Juan Soto will be a Met for 15 years and a reported $765M.  There is an opt out clause in there and there are supposedly incentives that could kick up the total value so take that $765M figure with a grain of salt.  Soto is only 26 years old; he has been in the major leagues since he was 19 and his batting stats have been prodigious.

• At the age of 21, he led the National League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging.
• At the age of 21 he led MLB in OPS posting a figure of 1.185.
• Normalized to a 162-game schedule, he projects to have an OPS of .953 with 32 HRs and 102 RBIs.

Two things about this signing stand out for me:

1. Soto was a Yankee last year and will be a Met next year – – and the year after that and …  I have trouble imagining that sort of situation obtaining during the George Steinbrenner Era; I doubt he would have been outbid for someone like Soto and I doubly doubt that he would have been outbid by the Mets.
2. This signing is another indicator that MLB would be well served by a salary cap and salary floor.  By that I do not mean that the Mets are now prohibitive favorites to win the World Series a half-dozen times in the next decade; what I mean is that this signing demonstrates why a bunch of teams either in “smaller markets” or with owners whose pockets are not nearly as deep as the Mets’ owner’s are have little to no chance to win even one World Series.

The NFL’s mantra about “On any given Sunday …” is more than a marketing slogan.  The NFL system allows for well-managed teams to win championships even if they are not in New York or Los Angeles or Chicago.  In fact, only two of the last sixteen Super Bowl winners came from those three population centers.

Moving on – – but staying with baseball …  The Baseball Hall of Fame Eras Committee voted to induct Dick Allen and Dave Parker into the Hall of Fame righting a wrong that has existed for about 30 years.  Allen and Parker were hitters that demanded attention every time they came to the plate because both players hit more than a couple of moonshots than may have taken a day or two to come down out of the sky.  Allen died in 2020 so he never got to see his plaque in the Hall of Fame; Parker is still alive and will experience that joy.

Next up …  The field for the first of the expanded CFPs has been set; the Selection Committee has spoken.  Remember, I said that the Committee was not charged with identifying the 12 best teams in the country; they were given parameters regarding conference champions and seeding rules that they had to follow.  And, in fact, I do not believe that they came up with the 12 best teams for the CFP field.

I do NOT think any team was “snubbed” nor do I think that there were any backroom shenanigans that shaped the field.  In my opinion, the Committee had to minimize the problems created by those constraints, but they also made a mistake or two.

• Looking at the four teams receiving BYEs for the first round of the tournament, I have no problem with either Oregon or Georgia on that list.  I do have a problem with both Boise St. and Arizona St. when I try to square “best teams” with “first-round BYEs”.
• I do not think that both Clemson and SMU belong in the field.  Clemson is the conference champ – – having beaten SMU in the Championship Game – – so they must be in the field by rule.
• Now, even if the Committee wants to have both Clemson and SMU in the field, how can they rank SMU ahead of Clemson when Clemson beat SMU about 24 hours before the CFP field was announced?

My opinions here have nothing to do with stats; I am applying strength of schedule and “the eyeball test” to form my rankings and using those two metrics, I believe:

• Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina are more worthy of being in the CFP than SMU or Indiana.
• Based on my “eyeball test”, I do not think either SMU or Indiana could have posted the records that they did had they played the same rigorous schedule that the three SEC teams did.

This expanded CFP will play its first game on December 20^th when Notre Dame and Indiana square off.  The final game will be on January 20, 2025.  The good news is that the National Champion will be decided on the field.

Finally, since today was about mistakes (by the CFP Selection Committee) and correcting a longstanding mistake (Dick Allen and Dave Parker getting into the Hall of Fame), let me close with these words from Cicero:

“Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………