The NBA is going to “explore” the possibility of expanding by two teams as early as 2028/2029. It has been a while since the league expanded (the Hornets entered the league in 2004) and save for the merger of the NBA and the ABA, expansion has usually been one-at-a-time. The last time two teams entered together was in the 1990s when the Raptors and the Spurs came into existence. The cities being targeted now are Seattle and Las Vegas.
The motivation here is crystal clear; each new franchise will cost the new owner several billions of dollars which will be divided up among the existing owners. That might mean a “direct deposit” of something like $300M for each existing owner in the next couple of years; I don’t anticipate that any of those owners are likely to view that as a negative incentive. Unless …
The NBA owners are successful in the world of business; that is how they got the money to buy the franchises they now own. The NBA has in place a long-tern lucrative TV deal which is currently being shared by 30 teams; expansion would divide that revenue stream by 32 teams. So, maybe the calculation gets a tad “trickier”.
The expansion draft might not be as clean as it would be for only one team entering the league. When the Hornets drafted existing NBA players, no team stood to lose more than one player. Well, if that holds true here and each new franchise gets 15 players in the Expansion Draft, every team will lose one player, and the two expansion teams would be required to take someone from the bottom-feeding teams which cannot possibly be an attractive thought.
There is also a decision to be made regarding the new teams’ position in the NBA Draft. Previous expansion teams were not given top picks; I read one report that said the Timberwolves and the Magic had to wait until #10 and #11 in the collegiate draft in their expansion year. Obviously, granting a higher slot in the draft will make a good negotiation point for the league in setting the price for the two new franchises – – but that means two existing teams will get lower lottery picks and that is not fully exciting.
And there is one more issue for the league to deal with – – Geography. It should not be difficult to conclude that both Las Vegas and Seattle should be in the Western Conference. If the league is to remain balanced that would mean sending a current Western team to the Eastern Conference. The two teams currently in the West that are the furthest east are the Memphis Grizzlies and/or the New Orleans Pelicans. I have no idea what the owners there might think about being “uprooted” within the league nor do I have any sense that owners of Eastern teams would be welcoming.
The bottom line here is that the big fat payday that results from expansion brings some uncertainties with it. That is why the league is only “exploring” the possibility of expansion. But with that tidbit tossed into the public domain, it required Adam Silver to “meet the press” and discuss a variety of issues including:
- Tanking: The league has tried to stamp out tanking for decades and has been singularly unsuccessful. The Commissioner has said it was high on his priority list and this week he said that changes will be coming to reduce the incentives for tanking teams. We have heard that before and the reason it never seems to work is a feature specific to the game of basketball. One great player can alter the direction and the fortune of a basketball team far greater than is likely in either baseball or football. Here is Silver’s comment after meeting with all the NBA owners:
“I will say it seemed unanimous in the room that we needed to make a change, and we needed to make a change for next season. Exactly what that change is, we’re continuing to work on. No votes were taken today. I think there’s also unanimous agreement that we need to make this change in advance of the draft and free agency this year, so all the teams understand the rules of the road going into next year. That means we will most likely have a special board meeting in May, in which, at that point, we will vote on whatever modification we come up with.”
Good luck, Commish …
- “The 65-game rule”: Currently, for a player to be eligible for major awards like MVP, they must play in 65 games or more. Cade Cunningham has a collapsed lung and may not make it to 65 games this season, but he should get a lot of consideration as MVP. The rule was intended to limit “load management”; Cade Cunningham is not “load managing”; a collapsed lung is nothing but serious. The union wants the rule changed/modified/waived; the league has taken that under advisement.
Finally, these words from George Washington seem appropriate today:
“Few men have virtue to withstand the highest bidder.”
Burt don’t get me wrong, I love sports………