Football Friday 1/16/26

I can count the number of Football Fridays left in this season on one hand – – with some fingers to spare.  So, let me get right to the subject at hand by reviewing last week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Spreads and Totals:              2-1-0
• Season to Date:                     37-41-2

And …

• Money Line Parlays:             0-1                   Loss = $100
• Season to Date:                     17-24               Profit = $557

 

College Football Commentary:

 

When you were a kid, you probably played the game of musical chairs at least once; and as an adult, you probably recognize that the game has a relationship with the Law of Supply and Demand in Economics.  The only reason that a seat on a chair is valuable is because there are not enough seats to go around; demand exceeds supply; there are more fannies than chairs.  Well, I ran across a datum last week that tells me there should be some college football players who will feel like outcasts from the game of musical chairs soon.  Here is the datum:

• There are 180 QBs in the college football portal.

There are also, only 136 Division 1-A college football teams as of January 2026 and there is only one starting QB per team.  Recognizing the mathematical outcome here is not nearly equivalent to proving The Poincaré Conjecture [Google is your friend.]; there are going to be some unhappy would-be QBs.

Moreover, after observing that mathematical imbalance, Dante Moore announced that he will not declare for the NFL Draft but will return to Oregon for next year.  Given that he led the Ducks to the CFP semifinals this year, I would imagine that he will get the start for Oregon in 2026 meaning there are only 135 potential starting jobs up for grabs.[Foreshadowing Alert:  I will have more to say about Moore’s decision later on.]

I commented on Miami’s victory over Georgia last week; here is a thumbnail on the Indiana win over Oregon last week:

Indiana 56  Oregon 22:  That score is an accurate reflection of the game on the field.  Indiana outplayed Oregon on offense, defense and special teams.  Oregon lost 3 turnovers (one was a Pick Six) and had a punt blocked.  I think – – I am not sure – – that I saw a bit of a smile hit Curt Cignetti’s face before the final whistle went off.  Could that be right?

 

The CFP Championship Game: 

 

(Mon Nite 7:30 PM ET) Miami vs. Indiana – 8 (47):  The spread opened at 6.5 points; it rose as high as 9 points in mid-week and now sits at this level in most places.  There are a couple of sportsbooks where the spread is 8.5 points this morning.  The Total Line for the game opened at 45.5 points.  That number jumped very quickly to 48.5 points and then backed off to this level by mid-week, and it has been relatively stable since then.  The money has flowed to the Indiana side and to more scoring than originally posted by the oddsmakers.  This is essentially a home game for Miami, but I fully expect there to be a large contingent of Indiana fans in the house loudly supporting their Hoosiers.  Fernando Mendoza gives Indiana a surgically accurate passing attack; Reuben Bain, Jr. gives Miami an effective pass rush.  I think the game will come down to Indiana’s ability to protect Mendoza and enable that passing attack to do its job.  I like Indiana to win the game but I do not like having to lay more than a TD’s worth of points; so, I’ll pass on the spread and take the game to go OVER; put that in the ‘Betting Bundle”.

 

NFL Commentary:

 

With the Niners advancing to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, I would like to post an off-the-wall comment here:

• One might make a case for Mac Jones as the NFL MVP

The Niners made the playoffs with a record of 12-5-0.  They did that with Brock Purdy missing 8 starts due to injuries; Mac Jones had a record of 5-3-0 in those 8 games and the Niners would not have made the playoffs had they gone 3-5-0 instead.  I am using here the concept of “value” to his team and not the concept of “best player on the field for the season” with my assertion.

And, for the record, I do not expect anyone to agree with me on this matter…

I want to take a moment here to say a few more things about Mike Tomlin, his tenure with the Steelers and his decision to “step down” as the coach of the Steelers.  I read that his tenure in Pittsburgh was the seventh longest tenure in NFL history.  The most recent coaching tenure that was longer than Tomlin’s time with the Steelers was Bill Belichick with the Pats; other than that, all the folks on the “longest-tenure list” got their jobs more than 50 years ago.  Here is the list:

1. Tom Landry – Cowboys – 29 years
2. Curley Lambeau – Packers – 29 years
3. Don Shula – Dolphins – 26 years
4. Bill Belichick – Pats – 24 years
5. Chuck Noll – Steelers – 23 years
6. Steve Owen – Giants – 23 years
7. Mike Tomlin – Steelers – 19 years

The presence of both Chuck Noll and Mike Tomlin on that list above reminds me that the Steelers have had 3 head coaches since 1969.  It has been 56 years since then and in that time frame, here are some historical facts:

• There have been 21 head coaches of the Cleveland Browns since 1969
• There have been 13 leap years since 1969.
• There have been 11 presidencies in the US since 1969.
• There have been 8 chairs of the Federal Reserve since 1969.
• There have been 7 Secretaries General of the United Nations since 1969.
• There have been 6 Popes since 1969.
• There have been 5 horses that won the Triple Crown since 1969.

And …

• There have been 3 head coaches of the Pittsburgh Steelers since 1969.

I wonder about the desirability of the Steelers’ job as of now.  If Aaron Rodgers chooses to retire or to go elsewhere, the Steelers need a QB unless they believe that Mason Rudolph is a late-bloomer who can lead the team to the playoffs.  Over and above that, the team needs to upgrade the OL, and it needs help with its receiving corps.  The defense has some aging vets but is in less need of upgrade than other areas of the team.

The Steelers’ QB situation is under appreciated because the Steelers have not had a losing record in next to forever.  However, since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger after the 2021 season, the Steelers have had a less-than-impressive array of starting QBs:

• Justin Fields
• Kenny Pickett
• Aaron Rodgers – – the 41-year-old version not the HoF version
• Mason Rudolph
• Mitch Trubisky
• Russell Wilson

And in addition to the possibility of needing to reboot much of the team, there is an intangible debit.  Some in the fanbase may perceive that “they” got Tomlin fired; he did not step down; he was asked to step down.  Remember those signs and those chants of “Fire Tomlin” about a month ago…  Well, just how happy might those self-empowered fans be to a season where the Steelers’ record is 5-12-0 instead of 10-7-0 and no playoff participation.

I said above that I would comment here on Dante Moore’s decision to go back to Oregon instead of entering the NFL Draft.  Here is the situation:

• The Raiders need a QB and have the first pick.  The consensus pick is Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.  I will be surprised if the Raiders take anyone else.
• As of today, the second pick in the April Draft belongs to the NY Jets.  That team needs a QB even more than the Raiders need a QB; that team has been the elephants’ graveyard for QBs for the last 50 years or so.

So, the question now comes down to this:

• Did Dante Moore make his decision based on a desire to avoid following in the footsteps of Zach Wilson, Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold as first round picks by the NY Jets?

Here are some comments about last week’s wildcard games.  There were 6 games over last weekend; there were five-and-a-half exciting games until the Texans ran away from the Steelers in the second half of the last game of the weekend.

Rams 34  Panthers 31:  The Rams were 10-point favorites here and eked out a win such that backers of the Panthers did not need to sweat it out in the final moments of the game.  The Rams had a tidy advantage in terms of Total Offense, but 9 untimely penalties gave the Panthers ways to stay within hailing distance on the scoreboard.

Bears 31  Packers 27:  The Packers led 21-6 at the start of the 4^th quarter and managed to lose the game.  Jordan Love threw for 323 yards and 4 TDs, and the Packers managed to lose the game.  The Bears had 4 possessions in the 4^th quarter of the game and scored 3 TDs, made a two-point conversion and kicked a field goal with those four possessions.

Niners 23  Eagles 19:  The Eagles’ defense did its job limiting Christian McCaffrey to 48 yards rushing in the game on 15 carries.  On offense, the Eagles dropped passes at critical points and gave the Niners too many offensive opportunities.

Pats 16  Chargers 3:  There is no way that Jim Harbaugh foresaw his offense producing a meager 207 yards in this game; it was a dominant performance by the Pats’ defense.  Not only was the Chargers’ offensive output low, but the Pats’ defense also held the Chargers to 1 of 10 on third-down conversions.

Bills 27  Jags 24:  The Jags held James Cook to 45 yards on 15 carries but that was not enough.  Josh Allen ran for 2 TDs and threw for another; the Bills’ defense showed up and recorded 2 INTs allowing the Bills to score the winning TD with about a minute left in the game.

Texans 30  Steelers 6:  At halftime the Texans led by only 7-6; then came the deluge orchestrated by the defense.  Here are the Steelers’ possessions in the second half of the game:

• 8 plays             23 yards          PUNT
• 4 plays             6 yards            PUNT
• 4 plays             35 yards          STRIP SACK – – Texans TD
• 6 plays             19 yards          PUNT
• 4 plays             5 yards            INT
• 6 plays             21 yards          GAME OVER

 

Games This Week:

 

(Sat. 8:00 PM ET) Niners at Seahawks – 7.5 (45):  Everyone points to the Niners’ list of injuries to top-shelf players, but the team has dealt with those shortcomings for months now; I have to believe that the team had made its adjustments.  I think the game will turn on the performance of Sam Darnold.  As he did last year, Darnold had a great regular season making only a few debilitating mistakes.  Looking back as last year however, this is the time when his game unraveled against the Lions in the playoffs.  So, what does this iteration of the playoffs have in store for Messr. Darnold?  I love the way the Seahawks play defense, but I am drawn to that generous helping of points with the Niners; give me the Niners and the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sat. 4:30 PM ET) Bills at Broncos – 1.5 (46):  This game opened as a “Pick ‘Em game”; it moved quickly to this level early in the week and has stayed there all week long.  There are two fundamental questions here; the two answers should decide the game:

1. Will the Bills’ defense – – particularly the run defense – – play as well as it did last week?
2. Will Bo Nix have an efficient game or an inefficient game this week?

As is the case with every game involving the Buffalo Bills, there is the potential for Josh Allen to take over the contest and make things happen the way he wants them to happen.  The Broncos’ defense is a good unit and is well aware of that potential.  I’ll take the Bills plus the points here and cross my fingers in hopes of a significant defensive effort by the Bills; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun. 3:00 PM ET) Texans at Pats – 3 (40.5):  I think this game will turn on the two defenses.

• Can the Texans’ defense overwhelm the Pats’ OL and minimize the Pats’ passing game?
• Can the Pats’ defense force fumbles and INTs out of the Texans’ offense?

The Texans lost two fumbles and threw an INT last week — and still won; however, that is not generally a recipe for success.  I like the Pats to win and cover here; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

(Sun. 6:30 PM ET) Rams – 4 at Bears (48): My pick here is purely from the gut; I think the Bears’ comebacks in the final minutes of a half-dozen games this year indicates that they are serious contenders for the Super Bowl.  I know that when it does “come undone” for the Bears, they are likely to lose a game by 3 scores – – but not this week.  I like the Bears plus the points at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:

• Indiana/Miami OVER 47
• Niners +7.5
• Bills +1.5
• Pats – 3
• Bears +4

And just for giggles, here is a Money Line Parlay:

• Bears @ +170
• Bills @ +105               $100 wager to win $454

Finally, this observation from Frank Leahy:

“Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………