Football Friday will happen on Wednesday this week for calendar and travel reasons. If there are any selections in the “Betting Bundle” for this week realize that they are based on VERY early lines on the games. I am very happy to review last week’s “Betting Bundle” because it was on the mark:
- Spreads and Totals: 4-0-0
- Season to Date: 35-40-2
And …
- Money Line Parlays: 1-1 Profit = $32
- Season to Date: 17-21 Profit = $857
My “sleeper team” for 2025 has been Georgia Tech; the Yellowjackets will play BYU this weekend in the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando. The loser in this game will likely be said to have been “toasted” – – but I’ll just leave that one to others.
College Football Commentary:
This is the weekend of the year when college football fanboys react in high dudgeon to the first round games of the CFP. In 2025, the CFP Selectors had the audacity to include not one but two teams from outside the Power-4. And as we have become accustomed, those teams were blown out in Round 1. I have asserted here for years that college football playoffs are an entertainment feature that is sold to the public to raise lots of money for the CFP itself. So, to start the argument here, let me pose a couple of questions:
- What would be more entertaining – – Ole Miss/Tulane or Ole Miss/Notre Dame?
- What would be more entertaining – – Oregon/JMU or Oregon/ Notre Dame?
Stop right there; even if you hate Notre Dame, you have to admit that inserting the Fighting Irish into the CFP would have made one of those games more entertaining as a TV product. That is one reality – – and here is another one:
- The CFP must continue to include non-Power-4 teams whenever possible lest it be considered to be a “combination in restraint of trade” which would violate both the Sherman Anti-Trust Act and the Clayton Anti-Trust Act.
Given the taxonomy of college football in 2025, that legal imperative guarantees that at least one of the first round games in the CFP is most likely to be a mismatch. The problem that I see there is speed.
James Madison is a good college football team outside the Power-4, but when they lined up against Oregon, they were a full step slower at just about every position. And it is difficult to beat a football team if you cannot reliably catch up to them so that you can hit them. The Power-4 teams have the NIL money to obtain the fastest and biggest players and in football, which is a combination that only loses with the intervention of the football gods.
This is reality, folks. College football fans need to take a deep breath and come to terms with the reality.
Here are comments from last week’s games:
Miami 10 Texas A&M 3: Could the Aggies have made any more mistakes in one game? How did Miami manage to score only 10 points here? Let me summarize:
- First Downs: Aggies = 21 ‘Canes = 12
- Turnovers: Aggies = 3 ‘Canes = 1
- Sacks Allowed: Aggies = 7 ‘Canes = 2
- Offensive Plays: Aggies = 75 ‘Canes = 49
The Aggies had a field goal attempt blocked; the ‘Canes missed three field goal tries. And indeed, the team that made the last mistake of the day lost the game; the Aggies threw an INT with under two minutes left in the game. The game was exciting because it was always a one-score game – – but it was not particularly entertaining.
Ole Miss 41 Tulane 10: This game was a first-round mismatch in the CFP which we should come to expect so long as teams from outside the Power 4 conferences are mandated to be in the field. Ole Miss forced 3 turnovers in the game and stopped Tulane 4 times on 4th down attempts. It was only 17-3 at halftime; but the second half belonged to the Rebels.
Oregon 51 James Madison 34: The Total Line for this game closed at 46 points; the teams were one TD short of doubling that “expected output”. The two teams combined to create 1024 yards of offense in the game. The outcome was never really in doubt; Oregon led 34-6 at halftime but at least JMU did not just roll over and play dead in the second half. You got the sense that this was going to be an “unusual game” at the start. Oregon took the opening kickoff and scored on 4 plays with 13:17 showing on the clock in the first quarter. Naturally, Oregon went for a two-point conversion at that point, and it failed. Say what?
Alabama 34 Oklahoma 24: With 10:51 left in the second quarter, the Sooners led 17-0. By halftime, Alabama had tied the game at 17 apiece thanks to a blocked punt and an INT that led to points. Alabama led by 10 points starting the fourth quarter at which point the Sooners’ offense imploded; here are the Oklahoma possessions in the fourth quarter of the game:
- 3 plays 1 yard PUNT Possession = 1:37
- 3 plays neg-6 yards PUNT Possession = 1:29
- 8 plays 44 yards MISS FG Possession = 2:07
- 5 plays 18 yards MISS FG Possession = 0:34
As expected, the Oklahoma defense shut down any semblance of an Alabama running game; the Tide ran the ball 23 times for a net gain of 28 yards. Nevertheless, Alabama moves on in the CFP …
Arkansas St. 34 Missouri St. 28: Missouri St. made it to a bowl game in its first year as a Division 1-AA football team which is noteworthy by itself; the fact that they lost this game should not detract from the Missouri St. overall record of 7-6 in their inaugural year as a member of C-USA.
Games of Interest This Week:
(Sat. Noon ET) Penn St. vs. Clemson – 3 (48.5): Both teams were ranked in the Top 5 in those meaningless pre-season polls. Now here they are in a minor bowl game hoping to come away with a season record of more than .500.
(Sat 3:30 PM ET) Georgia Tech vs BYU – 5 (56): Tech is my “sleeper team”; of course, this is a game of interest.
(Sat 9:15 ET) LSU vs Houston – 3 (41): Not only is LSU consigned to a minor bowl game, but they find themselves underdogs to a team outside the SEC. How embarrassing …
NFL Commentary:
I want to take this opportunity to thank both CBS and FOX for making what I think is a significant upgrade to their NFL telecasts this season. They have eliminated the distracting crawl at the bottom of the screen giving scores of other games and running through individual players’ stats with “fantasy points”. Anyone who is focused on fantasy points can take his/her phone and follow along to their hearts’ content; those of us who have tuned in to see which team scores the most “real points” need not be kept abreast of anything fantastical.
CBS now keeps viewers informed about other games that are ongoing or that just finished with a small and unobtrusive graphic in the upper left corner of the screen. It shows the score of that other game, the time left in whatever quarter and which team has the ball. That is plenty of information; if I feel the need to track some other game play by play, I can take my phone and do that with ease.
I find those changes from the past several seasons as a significant improvement and both networks are to be commended for the changes.
This week, there is a game on the schedule that is purely a race to the bottom. The Raiders and Giants will meet in Las Vegas on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET for a game that is simultaneously meaningless and important. Both teams arrive at the kickoff with identical records of 2-13-0; all reports say that the Giants own the tiebreaker here so they would have the first pick in the draft next Spring as of this morning. The intrusion of that tiebreaker can only remain pertinent in the case of tie this weekend and then for both teams to have the same outcome for games next weekend.
This is the NFL’s version of the final game of my imaginary SHOE Tournament for college football. It certainly appears to determine on the field if the Raiders or the Giants are the worst team in the league for 2025. Let yourself revel in the splendor of that situation and give thanks that you will not watch that game on Sunday unless you live in the NYC area or somewhere in Nevada. And for those fans who choose to watch NFL Red Zone instead of whatever game is on in your viewing area, you will probably have your eyeballs polluted with some content from this game – – assuming of course that one of the teams at least one time makes it to the Red Zone or scores a TD some other way. Those viewers should be rooting for a tie-score at 0-0 to maintain the purity of their viewing experiences.
Let me do some stat comparisons for those squads:
- Point Differential: Raiders = minus-169 Giants = minus-99
- Total Offense Ranking: Raiders = 32nd Giants = 17th
- Scoring Offense Ranking; Raiders = 32nd Giants = 23rd
- Total Defense Ranking: Raiders = 15th Giants = 29th
- Scoring Defense Ranking; Raiders = 25th Giants = 28th
Basically, when it comes to statistics that demonstrate efficiency and effectiveness, neither team finds itself in the top half of the league very often. It will come as no surprise below when this game is labeled as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because in reality, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Year!
Here are comments from some of last week’s games:
Eagles 29 Commanders 18: The Eagles are in the playoffs as the NFC East champions as a result of this win; the Commanders maintained their position to get a high draft pick in the April NFL Draft. Jalen Hurts only threw for 185 yards in this game – – but that was all he needed to do because the Eagles ran the ball for 207 yards against a Commanders’ defense that does not know how to tackle. In terms of tackling form, there are lots of high school teams that are more proficient at tackling than the Washington Commanders are. The Eagles’ defense showed up as well in this game holding the Commanders to 220 yards of Total Offense.
Bears 22 Packers 16 (OT): Are the Bears a Team of Destiny in 2025? They tied the game to produce OT by recovering an onside kick in the final two minutes of the game leading to a game-tying TD. The Packers lost a fumble on the opening possession of overtime leading to the Bears winning the game. That good fortune combined with good talent can win Super Bowls; at the same time, if that good fortune runs out in a playoff game leading to a Super Bowl …
Bills 23 Browns 20: The Browns outgained the Bills on offense and Shedeur Sanders had more net passing yards than Josh Allen; the Browns had an 11-minute advantage in time of possession too. And yet, the Bills won the game and are still playoff relevant even if they have not clinched a playoff slot mathematically. The Browns averaged 5.2 yards per rushing attempt; the Bills’ run defense is their Achilles heel.
Bengals 45 Dolphins 21: Well, benching Tua in favor of Quinn Ewers wasn’t the answer here. Here are two stats that will give you an idea as to how the game unfolded:
- Turnovers: Dolphins = 3 Bengals = 0
- Third downs Dolphins = 6 of 12 Bengals = 2 of 10
This was an opportunity for Quinn Ewers to stir up some enthusiasm for him as a developmental QB prospect. His overall stats look OK, but in the second half he threw 2 INTs and only completed about half his pass attempts. It was 17-14 at halftime; the game was still undecided and Ewers spit the bit.
Titans 26 Chiefs 9: The Chiefs got down to their #3 QB after Gardner Minshew suffered an ACL injury in this game. The total offense for the Chiefs was 133 yards; as has been the case for most of the season, the Chiefs just cannot run the football. In this game, the Chiefs ran the ball 15 times for 51 yards.
Chargers 34 Cowboys 17: Once again, the Cowboys were shut out in the second half of the game; it was tight at halftime with the Chargers leading 21-17. The Cowboys’ defense was hardly stout here; the Chargers gained 452 yards on offense.
Vikes 16 Giants 13: JJ McCarthy hurt his hand and could not play in the second half. Enter Max Brosmer for the second half. He led a 4th quarter drive that broke a 13-13 tie and produced the winning field goal. The Giants’ offense was non-existent; their total offense was 141 yards including net passing yardage of 13 yards. Tell me if any of this makes sense to you from a play-calling perspective:
- Jaxson Dart attempted only 5 passes in the first half and completed only 1 of them for net passing yardage of 2 yards.
- Jaxson Dart attempted only 8 passes in the second half and completed 5 of them for a total passing yardage of 33 yards.
[Aside: one of those pass attempts in the second half was an interception.]
Saints 29 Jets 6: Maybe Tyler Shough is the answer at QB for the Saints; they have won 3 games in a row with him in charge of the offense. The Jets are getting an extended look at Brady Cook, and it should have convinced them that he is not their “QB of the future”.
Panthers 23 Bucs 20: The Panthers now lead the NFC South by a game over the Bucs who have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The stat sheet here was pretty even; the Bucs won time of possession by 9 minutes, but the Bucs turned the ball over in the final minute while driving for either a win or a game-tying field goal try.
Falcons 25 Cards 19: The Cards scored 10 points in the first 8 minutes of the game and then scored only 9 more points in the final 50 minutes of the game. In those final 50 minutes, the Cards missed two field goal attempts and threw an INT. The Cards are 3-12-0 after starting the year with 2 wins in a row.
Jags 34 Broncos 20: The Broncos 11-game winning streak is over, and the Jags accomplished that on the road in Denver. The Jags have not clinched a playoff slot yet, but they are on the verge, and they could be a tough out once they are there. The Jags’ defense is solid, and Trevor Lawrence threw 3 TD passes and ran for another TD in this game to seal the victory. Rhetorical question:
- Does this win over the Broncos in Denver make the Jags the favorites as the AFC Super Bowl representative?
Texans 23 Raiders 21: The Raiders gave the Texans the lead in the first quarter with a Pick Six by Geno Smith. Rather than just folding, the Raiders continued to compete and actually led the game 14-13 in the middle of the third quarter. The Raiders outgained the Texans for the day but that Pick Six provided more than just the margin of victory. Texans were 14-point favorites here and they played as if they were already looking ahead to the Chargers game next week.
Steelers 29 Lions 24: Please do not ask me to explain the last play of that game. That is a level of depth in the rule book that is reserved for referees as they take their written test on the rules each year. The win here – – combined with the Ravens losing this week – – gives the Steelers a 2-game lead in the NFC North with only 2 games left to play. The loss leaves the Lions with a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. The Steelers produced a rushing attack that went off for 230 yards. Jaylen Warren averaged 10.2 yards per carry gaining 143 yards on the ground. Here is a stat for you to ponder about the Lions:
- In 2025, Lions are 0-7-0 when they do not rush for 100 yards or more.
Pats 28 Ravens 24: The Pats are in the playoffs and still lead the AFC East. The Pats outgained the Ravens by 123 yards in the game; nonetheless, the Ravens led 24-13 early in the 4th quarter. But the Ravens’ defense – – which has been uncharacteristically porous this year – – gave up 2 TDs in the final 12 minutes to lose the game. In the final 11 minutes of the game with the Ravens in the lead, they did not hand the ball to Derrick Henry even one time. That is misconduct on the part of the offensive play caller. Lamar Jackson had to leave the game in the first half with a back injury; that did not help the Ravens call even a little bit. The Ravens are not out of the playoffs but to get in, this is the scenario:
- Ravens win this week against the Packers and then beat the Steelers in the final game.
- Steelers lose to Browns this week and to the Ravens in the final game.
Games this Week:
The Pats and the Broncos are both 12-3-0; that is the best record in the AFC and Denver owns the tiebreaker over the Pats for the overall #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs. Both teams are double-digit favorites early in the week so the race for that top AFC Playoff slot will come down to next week’s contests.
The Bills and the Chargers are both 11-4-0; they can slip into the mix for that top slot if they win out and the Pats and Broncos falter.
- This week, the Pats visit the Jets and next week the Pats host the Dolphins.
- This week, the Chargers host the Texans and next week the Chargers visit the Broncos
- Clearly, the Chargers have the tougher row to hoe here…
The Steelers need a win to guarantee an AFC North championship and a playoff slot; the absence of DK Metcalf from their offense will make that task a bit more difficult.
- This week, the Steelers visit the Browns and next week the Steelers host the Ravens.
- If the Ravens win this week (at the Packers) and the Steelers lose to the Browns, the final game between the Ravens and the Steelers will be an elimination game.
In that important Ravens/Packers game, both teams will deal with banged up starting QBs. Both left the game last week and the official injury reports will not be out for another day or so. Will this be Lamar Jackson against Jordan Love or Tyler Huntley against Malik Willis or Cooper Rush …?
Before getting to the sixteen games for this week, remember that these are very early lines on the games; there is sure to be line movement based on money flow and that money flow will be affected by injury announcements between now and game time.
Also, there is another unusual factor at play this week. In the 16 games on the card for the weekend the visitors are favored in 11 of the games.
(Thurs. 1:00 PM ET) Cowboys – 7 at Commanders (51): Commanders’ fans will be pulling for a loss here to maintain position in next year’s Draft and the Cowboys’ offense should provide those fans with the desired outcome. The Cowboys can score and the Commanders’ defense is pathetic. Will the commanders start Josh Johnson or the recently signed off the living room couch, Jeff Driskell? Enquiring minds – – and all that stuff…
(Thurs. 4:30 PM ET) Lions – 7.5 at Vikes (43): The Lions are out of the playoffs with a loss here and the Vikes are out no matter what. JJ McCarthy has a fracture in his throwing hand; so, Max Brosmer will be under center for the Vikes.
(Thurs. 8:15 PM ET) Broncos – 13.5 at Chiefs (36.5): Back in August, this looked as if it would be an important game. Now it is the last of three really mediocre matchups for Christmas Day NFL Football.
(Sat. 4:30 PM ET) Texans at Chargers – 2.5 (39.5): Count this as the Game of the Week. I believe the Texans will clinch a playoff slot with a win; the Chargers need this game to stay within hailing distance of the Broncos (see above). The Texans’ offense needs to come to life about now; they only score 23.1 points per game. The Texans’ defense is what got them to this turning point in the season but it’s time for the Texans’ offense to share the burden.
(Sat. 8:15 PM ET) Ravens at Packers – 3 (40.5): As noted above, the only way for the Ravens to make the playoffs is for them to win out. The Packers need a win here just as badly because they are still outside the playoffs looking in. Can Lamar Jackson go? Will Jordan Love clear concussion protocol? By the way, if the Ravens lose here, they will finish the season with a record below .500. Wow…
Cards at Bengals – 7 (53): The Cards are 3-12-0 and could possibly be relevant for that overall #1 pick in next year’s Draft if they lose out. Other than that, this game means nothing.
Seahawks – 7 at Panthers (42): Both teams need wins here for their playoff possibilities. For the Panthers, the real action will be head-to-head next week against the Bucs.
Giants at Raiders – 2 (42): Clearly, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. In addition to their miserable records of 2-13-0, both teams have lost their last 9 games. Question:
- Will fans of either team be rooting for a victory here or will they root for a loss to get a higher Draft Pick in April?
My guess is that both fanbases would prefer a loss and one of these teams will disappoint many of their fans by winning this game.
Steelers – 3 at Browns (34): The Steelers have assured another winning season under Mike Tomlin; now, can they seal the deal with a playoff slot (see above)? The Browns are 3-12-0 and might be involved in the jumble to determine the overall #1 pick next year if they lose out.
Saints – 2.5 at Titans (39.5): These two bad teams have both been playing a lot better over the last three weeks or so. In fact, the Saints are on a three-game winning streak and boast a record of 5-12-0. The Titans are another team sitting at 3-12-0 and looking at draft positioning.
Bucs – 6 at Dolphins (46): The Bucs need this game and the Dolphins don’t. It’s that simple.
Jags – 7 at Colts (48.5): The Jags are hot right now and the Colts are as cold as a corpse. The Jags have won 6 in a row, and the Colts have lost 5 in a row.
Pats – 13.5 at Jets (43): The Pats are in the playoffs and have the inside track to the division championship. The Jets sport a record of 3-12-0.
Eagles at Bills – 1 (44): If you looked at the schedule back in August, you might have circled this game as a potential preview of the Super Bowl. The Eagles will be in the NFC playoffs, and the Bills are still very much in the picture for the playoffs in the AFC. The Eagles do not need this game nearly to the extent that the Bills need the game. I mentioned above that the Bills’ run defense is a liability; it will be interesting to see how the Eagles play that angle; the Eagles’ running game has been much more productive in the last couple of weeks.
(Sun Nite) Bears at Niners – 3.5 (52.5): Both teams have clinched playoff slots, but the Niners seem to have an added incentive here. I read a report that said if the Niners win out (Bears this week and Seahawks next week), the Niners would win the NFC West AND the Niners would have the overall #1 seed in the NFC Playoffs. I did not bother to try and verify that report by going through the tiebreaker system, so I hope it is correct since I cited it here. Remember, the Bears may just be this year’s “Team of Destiny” …
(Mon Nite) Rams – 8 at Falcons (49,5): The Rams are in the playoffs and the Falcons are not. Not a lot more to say about this one …
I have no selections for a “Betting Bundle” or for Money Line parlays this early in a week where some teams care a lot about the outcomes and others do not. Just sit back and enjoy lots of games with family and friends.
Finally, these words from Jimmy Johnson:
“Football rewards the guys that are in great condition.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………
It’s fun to be an NFL fan rather than focusing on one team.
TenaciousP:
Agree. Same goes for college football too.