The WNBA players and owners are negotiating a new CBA; the old one expired on Halloween but the two sides agreed to live under the old one for 30 more days meaning they have kicked the can down the road until November 30th which is 3 days after Thanksgiving. Back in 2020, the league and the players union reached a deal to put the current deal into effect and it was supposed to last through the 2027 season; however, both sides had an “opt-out clause” after the 2024 season and the players chose to “opt out” in order to get a better deal.
The WNBA is at its highest level of popularity/recognition/economic viability now. The current deal shortchanges the players based on that increased level of revenue; that statement is not open to contradiction. At the same time, the increased level of revenues flowing into the league are not equivalent to the revenues flowing into the NBA; there are issues of scale involved there.
So, what is likely to happen here:
- If there is no deal by November 30th, there could be another extension of the existing CBA allowing for more negotiations. Or, there could be a work stoppage.
That sounds simple, but nothing is ever simple. It turns out that most of the top WNBA players maneuvered their contracts to expire this winter; the majority of players will be free agents once the new deal is in place. The players clearly outflanked the owners on that move because many teams reportedly have no guaranteed money on their books because they don’t have any players signed beyond the year that just ended.
And if that is not chaotic enough for you to enjoy, remember that the WNBA is going to add 2 new franchises this winter (Portland and Toronto) which means there will need to be a “dispersal draft” to populate those teams – – unless the new CBA just makes the new teams fend for themselves in the upcoming free agent feeding frenzy.
And remember that a “work stoppage” comes in two flavors:
- The league can lock out the players – – OR – –
- The players can go on strike.
A lockout requires “all league business ceases” – – which is something I have never understood since continued negotiations on a new CBA seems like “league business” to me and that is obviously permitted and even encouraged. Whatever … Lockouts do not have an expiration date as do CBA extensions and deadlines tend to spark activities that lead to deals; so a lockout is probably not good news for WNBA fans who probably just want this matter to be settled so they can get back to watching their teams play.
As is always the case, there are myriad issues that need settlement in these negotiations, but the core issue is both simple and basic:
- The revenue sharing and the pay scale that was agreed to in 2020 was proper for a league that was not so popular and needed money from the NBA to stay solvent. Such is not the case today; the WNBA is probably poised to be self-sustaining and even profitable across the board as of today; so, the players want a bigger share of the new and improved revenue streams.
Neither side has specified the details of their proposals and the counter-proposals on that issue, so let me make up a negotiating scenario here:
- Owners offer revenue sharing – – 30% of revenues go to player salaries that define a salary cap and a salary floor for all teams.
- Players offer revenue sharing – – 50% of revenues go to player salaries that define a salary cap and a salary floor for all teams.
In my admittedly simplistic formulation here, the final answer is either a percentage somewhere between 30% and 50% or there is a work stoppage that erases games from the WNBA schedule in 2026. And, erased games means a reduction in revenues which will certainly not improve the desire of either the players or the owners to sit in a circle, join hands and sing kumbaya.
At some point, both sides will conclude that there is enough revenue coming into the WNBA that compromises to get some of what is most desirable is better than nothing. It will probably take another extension of the CBA to make that happen, but it is the most likely outcome. The worst outcome is intransigence and both sides of this faceoff need to take the time to contemplate history here:
- MLB lost a World Series to intransigence
- The NHL lost an entire season to intransigence.
The owners and the players need to realize that the reason they are at the table negotiating now is because of the increased popularity of the product they put on the court and on the air. The way to kill the goose that is laying all those golden eggs is to make the product – – and/or the players – – less popular tomorrow than they are today. A work stoppage might do exactly that.
Finally, since the league and players are in a standoff for now, let me close with this:
“I have concocted a new cocktail; I call it the Mexican Standoff; it is equal parts tequila, Kaopectate and prune juice.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………