Well, the calendar has flipped over the requisite number of times, making it appropriate for another Football Friday. So let me begin with an unpleasant review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Spreads and Totals: 1-4-0 Ugly
- Season to Date: 4-11-0 Even worse
- Money Line Parlays: 1-2 Loss = $70
- Season to Date: 4-6 Profit = $114
The Linfield University Wildcats had the week off and will commence their Northwest Conference season this week at George Fox University. Go Wildcats!
My “Sleeper team” for 2025 barely continued to succeed last week:
Ga Tech 30 Wake Foret 29 (OT): My sleeper team was sleepwalking here; they were a 12.5-point favorite and were minus-550 on the Money Line. Wake outgained Tech by 50 yards in the game and Tech won the game when Wake opted for a 2-point conversion in OT, but Tech foiled the try with an end zone INT. Wake led the game 20-3 early in the second half, so it was a significant rally by Tech that got the game into OT in the first place. However, a win is a win – – but I would prefer for my “sleeper team” to do a bit less sleep-walking this week.
College Football Commentary:
It may sound like a Hollywood screenplay, but Bobby Petrino is back at Arkansas as the head football coach. After Arkansas was drubbed at home last week (see below), the school fired Sam Pitman and elevated Petrino to the job. Recall that he had this same job in the past and was forced to resign after a motorcycle accident where it was discovered that he was in the presence of a young female volleyball player. Now he is back as the head coach after about a 15-year absence.
Ole Miss has started the season at 5-0. The Rebels beat LSU last week (see below). The rest of the schedule for Ole Miss seems favorable. They have only two ranked teams on their schedule over the final seven games – – at Georgia and at Oklahoma. The rest of the schedule includes home games against South Carolina and Florida, plus a rivalry game with Mississippi State in the final game of the year. If they can avoid tripping over themselves, Ole Miss could easily end up with a 10-2 record – – or better – – and be part of the discussion for a CFP slot.
Here are some comments on college games from lasts week:
Notre Dame 56 Arkansas 13: This was a home game for the Razorbacks, but they were embarrassed by the Irish who gained 641 yards on offense in the game. They have a new head coach in Bobby Petrino who summarily fired the defensive coordinator and is in the process of shuffling the football staff.
Ole Miss 24 LSU 19: In addition to being 5-0 overall, the Rebels are 3-0 in SEC games this year. Ole Miss outgained LSU 480 yards to 254 yards; normally, that results in more than a 5-point differential. Fourteen penalties and two turnovers by the Rebels kept the game closer than one would expect.
North Texas 36 South Alabama 22: North Texas is 5-0 for the season.
Vandy 55 Utah St. 35: Vandy is 5-0 for the season.
Memphis 55 FAU 26: Memphis is 5-0 for the season.
Navy 21 Rice 13: Navy is 4-0 for the season and Navy leads the nation in rushing offense.
BYU 24 Colorado 21: BYU is 4-0 for the season.
Houston 27 Oregon St. 24. Houston is 4-0 for the season. AND Oregon St. is 0-4 for the season.
Northwestern 17 UCLA 14: UCLA is winless at 0-4 for the season.
Texas A&M 16 Auburn 10: Aggies’ head coach Mike Elko is a defensive guy, and his defense did the job here. The Aggies held the Tigers to 0 for 15 on third and fourth down tries. The defense also recorded six sacks in the game. Texas A&M is 4-0 for the season; Auburn dropped to 3-2 with this loss and both losses are in conference games.
Tennessee 41 Mississippi St. 34 (OT): The Vols did it through the air in this game; Tennessee QB, Joey Aguilar, posted this stat line:
- 22 of 40 for 335 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
It was those 2 INTs that kept the game this close as Tennessee outgained Miss St. by almost 100 yards which usually does not suggest an OT contest.
Alabama 24 Georgia 21: There was no scoring in the final 22 minutes of this game. There were no turnovers in those 22 minutes; both defenses just shut down the opposition. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson had a great day, throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns. This is a big win for the Crimson Tide.
Indiana 20 Iowa 15: The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the season but the Iowa defense took some of the shine off the image of “unstoppable offense” that had been created for Indiana. In their three games prior to the Iowa game, Indiana scored a total of 192 points.
Ohio St. 24 Washington 6: There were no TDs by Washington’s offense, but the Huskies’ defense kept the game from turning into a rout. Actually, the Ohio St. defense dominated the game. The Buckeyes recorded six sacks and nine tackles for losses and held the Huskies to 2 for 14 on third and/or fourth-down conversions.
Oregon 30 Penn St. 24 (2OT): Oregon dominated the stat sheet gaining 424 yards to Penn St.’s 276. Oregon led 17-3 early in the 4th quarter but the Nittany Lions rallied to tie the game at 17 and force OT.
Illinois 34 USC 32: The Illini were able to shrug off the beat down they took two weeks ago at the hands of Indiana. It was the first loss of the year for the Trojans, but it was a conference loss. They are now looking up at 6 conference rivals who are undefeated in conference games. The Trojans’ schedule is a tough one with games against Michigan, Notre Dame, Iowa and Oregon still on tap.
Baylor 45 Oklahoma St. 27: The first game in the post-Mike Guncy Era was not pretty for the Cowboys. But they did cover the spread which was 21 points…
Va Tech 23 NC St. 21: Tech fired its coach after losing to Old Dominion by 19 points. So, is the new interim coach in Blacksburg a miracle worker or is NC St. nothing more than mediocre?
UVa 46 Fla St. 38 (2 OT): The Seminoles won the stat sheet by 75 yards but lost the scoreboard when they could not match a TD and a two-point conversion in the second OT. Florida St. has a win over Alabama this year; so, while this loss will sting, I would not write the Seminoles off just yet.
Hawaii 44 Air Force 35: The Total Offense by the two teams here was 1029 yards.
NCAA Games of Interest This Week:
There is only one outrageous spread in the college games this week:
- Kent St at Oklahoma – 45.5 (53)
Air Force at Navy – 12 (52): Navy leads the nation in rushing and Ari force’s defense has been porous this season. Nonetheless, a 12-point spread in a game involving two service academies is very large …
Kentucky at Georgia – 21 (48.5): The Bulldogs look to atone for last week’s loss …
UVa at Louisville – 6.5 (61.5): The oddsmakers are not overly impressed with the Cavaliers’ win over Florida State last week …
Washington – 6 at Maryland (54): Maryland is undefeated this year and at home – – and a significant underdog …
Clemson – 14 at UNC (46): The Bill Belichick Era in Chapel Hill is not going smoothly …
Penn St. – 25 at UCLA (49): The Lions look to atone for last week’s home loss to Oregon, and a winless Bruins team could be the perfect foil …
Miami – 4 at Florida St. (54): This is my College Game of the Week. Both teams are ranked; this is an intrastate rivalry game. What’s to dislike here?
Vandy at Alabama – 10.5 (55): Vandy beat Alabama last year and Vandy is undefeated so far in 2025. I suspect that Kalen DeBoer has reminded the ‘Bama players of those two things more than once this week …
NFL Commentary:
Just a few random observations based on stats to date in 2025:
- The Bengals have been outscored 76-13 in the two games where Jake Browning has had to step in for Joe Burrow.
- Puka Nacua has been targeted 50 times this season and has caught 42 of those pass attempts for 503 yards. Wow!
- Joe is Flacco out and Dillon Gabriel is in at QB for the Browns this week against the Vikes in another international game for the Vikes. Flacco remains as the backup and Shedeur Sanders is still #3 on the Browns’ depth chart.
- The Jags’ defense has intercepted 9 passes in 4 games so far in 2025.
- The Jets’ defense has created no takeaways in 4 games so far in 2025.
Since I mentioned above that there is another international game this week, here is what Roger Goodell had to say on that subject last week:
“We have our eyes set on being 16 games internationally every year. We think we can do it.”
He also opined that a European city could have an NFL franchise and that he loved the possibility of a team in London, England. Regarding the 16-game international schedule, I believe that international games are an element of the CBA so this might need negotiation with the NFLPA to happen. I suspect that players would prefer to “stay home” for regular season games.
Then, later in the week, the NFL announced a deal with the city of Rio de Janeiro to host at least three regular-season games in the city over the next five years, with the first one set to take place in 2026.
Here are comments on last week’s games:
Steelers 24 Vikes 21: This was the first international game loss for Vikes. Minnesota scored 15 points in the final 8 minutes of the game to make the score respectable. The Steelers improved to 3-1 to lead the AFC North that looks winnable for the Steelers with QB injuries in Baltimore and Cincy. Carson Wentz played QB for the Vikes and threw for 300 yards and 2 TDs – – and also threw 2 INTs. Carson Wentz was sacked six times.
Pats 42 Panthers 13: The Panthers actually outgained the Pats 326 yards to 307 yards. The Panthers held the ball for more than 35 minutes; they had fewer penalties for fewer yards and did not turn the ball over. The Pats scored on an 87-yard punt return and had another punt returned for 65 yards setting up another TD. After scoring a TD on their first drive, here is how the rest of the game unfolded for the Panthers:
- PUNT
- PUNT
- MISSED FIELD GOAL
- PUNT
- PUNT
- PUNT
- TURNOVER ON DOWNS
- PUNT
- TURNOVER ON DOWNS
- TD – – MEANINGLESS
Giants 21 Chargers 18: Jaxson Dart did not shock and amaze in his first NFL game, but he did rush for a TD and throw for another one. The Chargers outgained the Giants by 88 yards and still lost the game. The Giants’ defense created 2 turnovers that were instrumental in this victory. Tuli Tuipulotu had four sacks for the Chargers.
Lions 34 Browns 10: The Browns’ defense did its job here; it held the Lions to 277 yards on offense. But the Lions got a punt returned for a TD and created 3 turnovers that gave the Lions scoring opportunities that they cashed in. That is 3 wins in a row for the Lions.
Bills 31 Saints 19: The Bills are undefeated in 2025; the Saints are winless in 2025. The Bills have scored 30+ points in all four of their wins so far this season.
Eagles 31 Bucs 25: The Eagles did not complete a pass in the entire second half of this game and still won. The Eagles were outgained 376 yards to 200 yards on offense and still won. A blocked punt returned for a TD and two turnovers by the Bucs were just enough for the Eagles to stay unbeaten in 2025.
Texans 26 Titans 0: The Titans were held to 175 yards of Total Offense in this game. The outcome was never really in doubt despite the score being 6-0 at the start of the fourth quarter. I said back in April that I was not sold on Cam Ward as a franchise QB in the NFL. Well, after a quarter of a season, he has not changed my mind…
Falcons 34 Commanders 27: Watching this game, it did not appear to be this close. The Falcons outgained the Commanders by 141 yards for the day. Bijan Robinson had a total of 186 yards from scrimmage and a TD in the game
Rams 27 Colts 20: This was the first loss of the year for the Colts. Puka Nacua had 13 receptions for 170 yards and a TD in the game, but it was an 88-yard TD pass from Matthew Stafford to Tutu Atwell that provided the difference on the scoreboard. Here is Matthew Stafford’s stat line for the day:
- 29 of 41 for 375 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs
Jags 26 Niners 21: The Jags returned a punt for a TD and the Jags’ defense created 4 turnovers in this game. Travis Etienne had a 48-yard TD run in the game.
Chiefs 37 Ravens 20: The Ravens finished the game without the services of 7 defensive starters – – 4 were not even active for the game. Also, Lamar Jackson exited in the third quarter and Cooper Rush had to finish the game for him; Jackson was limping after the game with a hamstring injury. The Ravens are now 1-3 and could be in deep trouble if they don’t get well quickly. The Chiefs seem to be on the mend. Xavier Worthy played last week and was instrumental in the Chiefs getting back to their “chunk plays” down the field. If this “offensive outburst” is indicative of the Chiefs’ returning to their offensive explosion roots, the AFC should prepare to be amazed. From the Ravens’ perspective, their defense must find ways to stop the “other guys”.
Bears 25 Raiders 24: The Raiders had a field goal attempt blocked at the end of the game to find another way to lose a football game. The Raiders got the best of the stat sheet; Ashton Jeanty showed his potential as an RB with 21 carries for 138 yards and a TD. The Raiders turned the ball over 4 times in the game; three of those were INTs thrown by Geno Smith.
Packers 40 Cowboys 40 (OT): This was a great game to watch; at the same time, it probably was sufficiently anti-climatic for all the players and coaches involved. The teams combined for 925 yards on offense and a total of 275 yards on returns. I read a report that the Packers provided the sportsbooks with another windfall here; 77% of the wagers on this game took the Packers and laid between 6 and 7 points. Two weeks ago, the Packers had about $1B bet on them in their game against the Bowns and the books cleaned up on that too.
Seahawks 23 Cards 20: A field goal as time expired saved this game from going to OT. The Cards rallied from a 20-6 deficit in the 4th quarter to tie the game with 30 seconds on the clock – – but it still was not a compelling game. The Seahawks got into field goal range in the final 30 seconds and kicked a 52-yard field goal to send the Cards’ fans home with a bitter taste in their mouths and to allow TV viewers to go find something more exciting to watch.
Dolphins 27 Jets 21: Two bad teams here; one of them had to win the game. The Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill for the season – – forever? – – so it may have been a Pyrrhic victory. The Jets committed way too many offensive pre-snap penalties. That is a lack of discipline and is one thing that can/should be attributed to coaching. Coaches don’t make plays but here are stats from this game that ought to make Aaron Glenn and his staff wary:
- The Jets turned the ball over three times.
- The Jets committed 13 penalties for 101 yards.
- The Jets went 0-for-2 in the red zone.
Broncos 28 Bengals 3: The Bengals took the opening kickoff and marched down the field methodically inside the 5 yardline and had to settle for a field goal. After that drive, the Bengals never snapped the ball in Broncos’ territory for the rest of the game. The Bengals have been blown out twice in a row without Joe Burrow under center; it could be a LONG season in Cincy…
NFL Games This Week:
There is another international game this week plus there are 4 teams working on their BYE Week:
- Bears: Their 2-2 record is about as good as should have been hoped for. The next game is against the Commanders and the last-second Hail Mary pass by Jayden Daniels to win the game with no time left sent both teams on a totally different vector heading for the season. Does history repeat …?
- Falcons: After a stinker of a game against the Panthers, the Falcons rallied to beat the Commanders more solidly than the score would indicate.
- Packers: This is a very good team that has played below their ability for the last two weeks.
- Steelers: They sit atop the AFC North as of this week. They are probably best equipped to suffer a significant injury their starting QB than any other team in the division.
Vikes – 3 vs. Browns (36): Two games in a row for the Vikes overseas.
Dolphins – 1 at Panthers (44): This is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Neither team matters even a little bit.
Cowboys – 2.5 at Jets (47.5): Clearly, the oddsmakers think the Cowboys are not nearly accurate as was shown by the nomadic wanderers during the daytime. The Jets seem to be zombie like,
Raiders at Colts – 7 (47.5): The Colts need a win to right the ship after last week. The Raiders are beyond hope.
Broncos at Eagles – 3.5 (42): This is the Game of the Week. The only time the Broncos won in Philly was in 1986 and their QB on that day was John Elway. Here are two more interesting stats related to this series:
- Overall, the Eagles lead the series 9-5.
- However, Broncos have outscored the Eagles 332-331.
Giants at Saints – 2 (42): This would have been the Dog-Breath game had it not been for the focus on Jaxson Dart as the QB savior of the Giants.
Texans – 2 at Ravens (41): The Ravens; defense has been lousy at best this year. The Texans’ offense has not been much better. Which unit will out stink the other?
Titans at Cards – 7.5 (42): Cards need this win badly. The Titans are merely bad.
Bucs at Seahawks – 3.5 (45): Both teams are 3-1; the Bucs leas their division and the Seahawks share that record with two other NFC West squads. This is an important game for both teams.
Lions – 10 at Bengals (49.5): If the Bengals’ defense cannot play better than it has shown so far in 2025, the Lions might score 49.5 points all by themselves.
Commanders at Chargers – 3 (47): This is a prove-it game for both teams. The Commanders’ defense has been awful; the Chargers will play without the services of both starting offensive tackles.
(Sun Nite): Pats at Bills – 8 (49): The Pats are much improved over last season, but the Bills are still too good for the Pats to win in Buffalo.
(Mon Nite) Chiefs – 3.5 at Jags (46): Did the sleeping giant that is the KC Chiefs’ offense regain consciousness last week? If so, the NFL needs to be very careful.
So, here is this week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Alabama – 10.5 over Vandy
- Washington – 6 over Maryland
- Bills – 8 over Pats
- Giants +2 against Saints
- Colts – 7 over Raiders
And here are some Money Line Parlays for the week:
- Texas @ minus-240
- Baylor @ minus-220
- Illinois @ minus-330 $100 wager to win $169
And …
- Colts @minus-290
- Giants @ +115 $100 wager to win $189
Finally, let’s hear from Woody Hayes:
“I am not very smart, but I recognize that I am not very smart.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………