Football Friday is a week overdue; so, let me get straight to it. The “Betting Bundle” from two weeks ago was positive:
- Spreads and Totals: 2-2-0
- Season Results: 3-4-0
And …
- Money Line Parlays: 2-1 Profit = $149
- Season Results: 3-3 Profit = $77
The Linfield Wildcats had a disappointing start to their 2025 football season losing at home in a non-conference game to Wisconsin-Oshkosh by a score of 31-14. This week, Linfield is hosting a feline showdown; it will be the Wildcats against the Panthers of Chapman University. Chapman also lost its opening game this year 37-30 at home against Hardin-Simmons University. Go Wildcats!
As of this morning, my “sleeper team” is looking like a “sleeping beauty”. Georgia Tech’s record stands at 3-0; last weekend they beat Clemson 24-21. That upset win had several positive results for Tech:
- It vaulted them into the Top 25 rankings; they sit at #18 this week.
- It was a conference win over Clemson.
- Should there be a need for a tiebreaker with Clemson down the road, Tech has the head-to-head victory in hand.
College Football Commentary:
When I was noting the results of the Georgia Tech/Clemson game last week, I used the word, “Upset”. I think that word is overused when it comes to college football. I consider Tech’s victory to be an upset because at the kickoff the college football pundits had Clemson solidly in the Top 20 at #12 in the country and Georgia Tech on the outside looking in. Moreover, the oddsmakers had Clemson as a full touchdown favorite in the game. So, whether you were considering the pundits or the oddsmakers, the result of the game was a surprise and thus should be called an “Upset”.
However, some would use that word to describe a game where the #15 ranked team beat the #12 ranked team by two points. I prefer not to use that label in that circumstance because what the pundits would be saying for such a game is that it ought to be a close matchup – – and a two-point differential would validate that expectation. I try to reserve the use of “Upset” to situations such as when Stanford beat USC in a game about 20 years ago when USC was ranked in the Top 5 and unranked Stanford was a 40-point underdog. That is an extreme example of an “Upset”.
In Week 1 of this season, Texas was ranked #1 by the pundits even though no one had seen any on-field performance by the Longhorns. Their opening game was on the road at Ohio State who was ranked #3 under similar punditry circumstances and the betting line closed with Ohio State as a 1-point favorite at home as the defending national champion. Some folks called that win by the Buckeyes an “Upset”; I think that is a serious misuse of the word.
Two schools have already fired their head football coaches in 2025, and we have not even arrived at the autumnal equinox.
- At UCLA, head coach DeShaun Foster was “relieved of his duties”. In addition, the team fired defensive coordinator, Ikaika Malloe. The Bruins have lost all three games so far this year. An opening loss to Utah was not a huge surprise; losing at UNLV might be acceptable because the Rebels’ program is on an upward trajectory. However, last week the Bruins lost at home to New Mexico by 25 points. That calls for the coach to exit – – stage left.
- At Va Tech, the school and head coach Brent Pry parted company after the Hokies opened the season at 0-3. The first two losses were both double-digit losses but both opponents were SEC teams; perhaps that could be tolerated. Then last week the Hokies lost at home to Old Dominion by19 points. Sayonara …
The new interim head coach at Va Tech has an interesting situation for tomorrow. The Hokies are at home again facing another opponent they are “supposed to beat”. The Division 1-AA Wofford Terriers coming out of the Southern Conference will take the field at the kickoff. Normally, Wofford squares off with the likes of The Citadel or Mercer or Furman. Moreover, Wofford arrives at the stadium with a similar record of 0-3 in 2025.
- Memo For Interim Head Coach: Do not lose this game by three scores…
There is another team where the coach must be feeling the heat despite his long tenure at the school. I am referring to Mike Gundy at Oklahoma St.; Gundy has been on the sidelines there for more than 20 years and he elevated the program from “middling status” to a team that was usually taken as a serious opponent in most seasons. Last year, lots of folks thought that the Cowboys would be the Big-12 champions – – but the team lost every single conference game.
In 2025, the Cowboys opened against a cupcake opponent, Tennessee-Martin and the Cowboys came away with a 27-7 win at home. The second game was always going to be a tall order; the Cowboys played highly ranked Oregon in Eugene, OR. The score of that game from two weeks ago was not just a loss; it was a humiliation; Oregon won 69-3 and the stat sheet said that was about what the scoreboard should have been. Oklahoma St. has now lost its last 10 games in a row against Division 1-A opponents. Tonight, Tulsa visits Stillwater, OK; the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites …
NCAA Games of Interest:
As usual, there are a few outrageous spreads on the board for this week:
- Kent St. at Florida St. – 45.5
- UAB at Tennessee – 40
- Sam Houston St. at Texas – 39.5
- Oregon St. at Oregon – 35.5
Florida at Miami – 8 (51.5): Miami is very good; they are 3-0 on the season with a win over Notre Dame and a blowout win over USF who were “upset darlings” coming into that game. QB, Carson Beck, may wind up collecting Social Security when he runs out of NCAA eligibility. The Gators lost last week the LSU; this week, they draw the Hurricanes and then next week, Texas comes to town. Yikes! …
Illinois at Indiana – 6 (53.5): Indiana is off to another blazing start against three middling-at-best opponents outscoring opponents 156-23. Indiana is ranked 19th in the country this week and Illinois is ranked 9th. Yet, the oddsmakers have Indiana as a solid favorite at home.
Auburn at Oklahoma – 7 (47): Both teams are 3-0; both teams are ranked in the Top 25; both teams struggled in the SEC last season. Auburn QB, Jackson Arnold, was the Oklahoma QB last season so this is either a homecoming for him or a revenge game depending on how you look at it. In three games, Auburn is averaging almost 6 yards per rushing attempt; Oklahoma’s defensive strength is its defensive line. Given all the angles and edges involved in this game, I call it the College Game of the Week.
Tulane at Ole Miss – 13.5 (62): Tulane aspires to the CFP slot set aside for a team outside the Power 4 conferences. A win on the road against Ole Miss would be an important element in their resume; the Green Wave has already recorded two wins over “Power 4” teams beating Duke and Northwestern… Purely a hunch, but I like Tulane with that handful of points; put that underdog and those points in the “Betting Bundle”.
Washington – 20 at Washington St. (52): Back before the PAC-12 implosion, this was the final game of the year for these two teams, and it was called the “Apple Cup”; this is the 117th game between these two teams; Washington holds a commanding lead of 76-34-6 in the series.
NFL Commentary:
The NFL teams have all played two games so far and that means it is time for fans around the country to over-react both positively and negatively to small data sets. Let me give you some examples:
- Packers’ Defense: It looked awfully good against the Lions in the opening game and then it looked even better stifling the Commanders last week. But may I suggest that we pump the brakes on comparisons to the 1985 Bears’ defense for the moment?
- Russell Wilson’s Ability: He stunk out the joint in Week 1 against the Commanders putting only 6 points on the board. Clearly, he is washed up and should be benched immediately – – and then he throws for 450 yards and puts 37 points up on the Cowboys.
- Jets’ Offense: They could not average 20 points a game last year; in Week 1 they scored 32 points on the Steelers. Not bad … Then in Week 2 the Jets scored only 10 points against the Bills and the final TD was a meaningless score.
- Commanders’ Defense: They looked like world beaters while dominating the Giants and then they were gashed by the Packers in Week 2.
Here are a few comments on games last week:
Lions 52 Bears 21: So far, the pairing of Caleb Williams with Ben Johnson has resulted in little difference as compared to last year.
Chargers 20 Raiders 9: The Chargers’ defense is for real after seeing them against the Chiefs and now the Raiders. The Raiders’ OL remains a “work in progress” to be as kind as I can.
Ravens 41 Browns 17: I don’t want to hang the Browns’ 0-2 start on Joe Flacco; that roster is deficient. However, Flacco is not the future QB of that team so why not let one or both rookies on the roster get some game experience to find out if one or both are going to become a starting NFL QB?
Bengals 31 Jags 27: The Bengals are 2-0; that’s the good news. The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow and with Jake Browning until at least December – – and maybe longer; that is the bad news. Why can’t the Bengals find five aspiring piano movers to create a functional OL to protect their QBs?
Pats 33 Dolphins 27: With their loss last night to the Bills the Dolphins are now 0-3 and they do not look like they have any great strength to build upon.
Seahawks 31 Steelers 17: The Steelers’ defense has now given up 30+ points two weeks in a row. That is very “un-Steeler-like”.
Cards 27 Panthers 22: The Cards are 2-0 but they have played two bad teams, and each game was a one-score affair.
Games this Week:
As I mentioned above, the Dolphins lost to the Bills last night and did not look to me like a team that merely needed to “work out a few wrinkles”. I know the Bills are a good team and were favored in the game, but it never seemed to me that the Dolphins were threatening to win that contest even though the final score was only a 10-point difference.
Colts – 4 at Titans (43): Here is a bit of trivia for you:
- The Indy Colts are the first team in the history of the NFL to score on all of their first ten possessions in a season.
The Titans and Cam Ward are still “figuring things out”. But can the Colts and Daniel Jones really continue to keep up that sort of offensive efficiency? I am tempted to take the Colts but will resist that temptation for now…
Falcons – 4.5 at Panthers (44): I liked what I saw from the Falcons last week as they beat the Vikes in Minnesota. The Falcons’ pass rush was impressive; that is not something that I would have said about the Falcons over the past year or two. I think the Falcons can control this game, so I’ll take the Falcons and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Raiders at Commanders – 4 (44): Jayden Daniels will not play here; Marcus Mariota will be the QB for the Commanders. The Raiders’ defense kept last week’s game close, but the Raiders’ offense was just plain bad. Geno Smith looked lost; Ashton Jenty looked ordinary. And now, the Raiders get to traverse 3 time zones for an early east coast start. This would have been a difficult game to pick even with Daniels in there; now, this is a game to watch and not wager on.
Packers – 7.5 at Browns (41.5): It’s hard to see how the Browns might win this game, but the Browns’ defense is good enough to make me afraid of that hook on top of a full TD in the spread.
Bengals at Vikes – 3 (42): The Bengals have won two ugly games; the Vikes have played 7 ugly quarters out of eight quarters for the season. Both teams will start backup QBs. Call this one the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.
Rams at Eagles – 3 (43.5): This was my runner up as the Game of the Week; it pairs two playoff teams from last year who both started out 2-0 this season. Both teams have yet to show much offensive power in 2025 and the Total Line for this game indicates that the oddsmakers do not think this is the week when an offensive outburst is likely.
Steelers – 2 at Pats (44.5): The Steelers’ defense is an enigma; Aaron Rodgers played one great game and one pedestrian game. The Pats are still figuring it all out. Just watch this one if it is on in your viewing area…
Jets at Bucs – 6 (43.5): Justin Fields is still in concussion protocol as of this morning; so, the starting QB for the Jets is still up in the air. I think the Bucs will make life difficult for any and all Jets’ QBs here. I like the way the Bucs are playing with the mix of running and passing; give me the Bucs at home to win and cover; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Texans at Jags – 1 (44): The Texans are 0-2 and they arrive here on a short week after losing on Monday last week. I know it’s early in the season, but this feels like a division game that the Texans can ill afford to lose.
Broncos at Chargers – 3.5 (45.5): This will be the third division game in a row for the Chargers; it seems to me that is not a typical way for a team to start their season. These are two good teams, and this game got a fleeting thought as the Game of the Week. The Cowboys/Bears game will be the national game in the late Sunday afternoon time slot; I would prefer to watch this game.
Saints at Seahawks – 7.5 (41.5): The Saints are not very good – – but I am not so sure the Seahawks are that much better.
Cowboys – 1 at Bears (50): This is just me talking here, but I think this game is a referendum on Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. The Cowboys’ defense has been nothing better than BAD so far this year; this is a wake-up call for the “Offensive Genius” and the “Generational Talent”. The Bears’ defense may give up 40+ points again here, but the key is the Bears’ offense. If the Bears cannot get some business done against the Cowboys’ defense, it is going to be a LONG season in Chicago.
Cards at Niners – 3 (45.5): This is a division game. Both teams are 2-0. Both teams have won close games to get their record to where it is. So, why does this game excite me about the same way as a hard-boiled egg excites me?
(Sun Nite) Chiefs – 5.5 at Giants (45): Both teams are 0-2; the Chiefs probably figure that a win here will set their course for playoff contention down the line; if the Giants think that way, they are delusional.
(Mon Nite) Lions at Ravens – 5 (53): This is the Game of the Week. The Lions’ offense erupted last week for 50+ points’ the Ravens’ offense has been on fire for both games this year. This could well be one of those games where the team that has the ball last will win the game.
So, let me review the three-element “Betting Bundle”:
- Tulsa +13.5 versus Ole Miss
- Falcons – 4.5 over Panthers
- Bucs – 6 over Jets
And just for fun, here are three Money Line Parlays:
- Falcons @ minus-230
- Chiefs @ minus-285 $100 wager to win $91
And …
- Colts @ minus-210
- Bucs @ minus-270 $100 wager to win $102
And …
- BYU @ minus-230
- Oklahoma @ minus-235 $100 wager to win $105
Finally, this from former Vikes’ coach, Bud Grant:
“You have to remember one thing: Football is entertainment; it’s not life or death. Once the game is over, you’re already talking about next year and the draft. It’s just entertainment.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………