Football Friday 12/13/24

Country music performer, Garth Brooks said:

“That smell of freshly cut grass makes me think of Friday night football in high school. The smell of popcorn and cigar smoke reminds me of the stadium.”

Here in Curmudgeon Central all I need is to check the calendar to make me think of Friday and the need to create another Football Friday, and so as Jackie Gleason would say, “And away we go…”

I shall begin with last week’s “Betting Bundle”.

• College spreads and totals were 3-0 – – Excellent!
• College Money Line Parlays were 2-0 for “Profit” of $575 – – Excellent!
• NFL spreads and totals were 1-1 – – Not good!
• NFL Money Line Parlays were 0-2 for “Loss” of $200 – – Bad!

The Linfield University Wildcats saw their season come to an end last week when they lost their Division III Playoff Game to Mary Hardin-Baylor by a score of 18-13.  Linfield finished the season with a 10-2 record and were undefeated in their Northwest Conference games.  Until next season …

 

College Football Commentary

 

You may recall that when Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to take the head coaching job at LSU, he said that he wanted a chance to win the national championship and that he might get to do that at LSU but not at Notre Dame.  Don’t look now but Notre Dame is in the CFP and LSU will be taking on Baylor on New Year’s Eve in something called the “Kinder’s Texas Bowl”.

And speaking of random bowl games, let me make a couple of comments about some of the minor ones:

• Salute to Veterans Bowl:  W. Michigan plays South Alabama.  Both teams are 6-6 this year meaning one of these bowl participants will end the year with a losing record.  Quite the Salute to Veterans …
• Boca Raton Bowl:  James Madison versus W. Kentucky.  These are both Sun Belt Conference teams [Yawn!] – – but at least they both have winning records…
• Cure Bowl:  Ohio takes on Jacksonville State; it’s the MAC versus CUSA.  Just what is that supposed to “Cure” … ?
• Myrtle Beach Bowl:  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers versus UTSA Roadrunners.  This should be the Avian Bowl, right …?
• Famous Idaho Potato bowl:  Northern Illinois Huskies play the Fresno State Bulldogs.  This should be the Canine Bowl, right … ?
• GameAbove Sports Bowl:  Pitt takes on Toledo from the MAC.  Pitt arrives at the game having lost 5 games in a row.
• First Responder Bowl:  North Texas versus Texas State.   Why isn’t this game being played in Texas?

And here are a couple of the bowl games not involved in the CFP that should be worth the trouble to tune in for:

• Birmingham Bowl 12/27/24:  Vandy versus Georgia Tech.  Both teams were surprisingly good in 2024.
• PopTarts Bowl 12/28/24:  Miami versus Iowa State.  Both teams had realistic shots at the CFP; this could be a very good game.
• Alamo Bowl 12/28/24:  Colorado versus BYU.  Both teams are in the Big 12 and both finished the season with winning records.
• ReliaQuest Bowl 12/31/24:  Michigan versus Alabama.  ‘Nuff said.

A couple of weeks ago, I touted RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.) here and suggested you check him out.  He is a Heisman finalist this year and has a realistic shot at breaking the college record for yards gained rushing in a season held by a guy you have probably heard of – – Barry Sanders.  I stand by my recommendation to watch Jeanty play and by my assessment that he is a significant talent.  Jeanty will next be on TV on New Year’s Eve playing against the winner of the Penn St./SMU CFP game.

With that as a basis, let me also call to your attention another college RB this year – – Cam Skattebo from Arizona St.  This guy is also very good and an exciting runner; against Iowa St. in the Big-12 championship game, he carried the ball 16 times for 170 yards and 2 TDs.  The next time Skattebo will take the field is on New Year’s Day against the winner of the Texas/Clemson CFP game.

UMass joined Division 1-A football competition in 2012; since that “elevation” the Minutemen have never won more than four games in a season and they have gone through four head coaches in those last 12 seasons.  Next up will be Joe Harasymiak who will lead UMass into the MAC starting in 2025. Goodluck to Coach Harasymiak and to the team in MAC competition next year.  I know I can’t wait for a showdown between UMass and Kent State on a random Tuesday night in November of next year …

Another college coaching move involves Dan Mullen whose career arc seems to be inverted:

• Mullen was head coach at Florida; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was head coach at Mississippi St.; that did not work out well.
• Mullen was just hired as head coach at UNLV.
• Connect the dots and the next job for Dan Mullen is …?  UMass?

In college games from last week:

Georgia 22  Texas 19 (OT):  It took Georgia more than the allotted 60 minutes of football to win the SEC Championship Game and they did it with their starting QB on the sidelines for the second half, but the Bulldogs pulled a rabbit out of a hat and won this game.  The Longhorns have lost twice in 2024 and both losses were to Georgia.

Clemson 34  SMU 31:  Clemson led this game 31-14 at the start of the fourth quarter and held off a big rally by SMU to become the ACC Champion for 2024.  SMU outgained Clemson by 125 yards for the game – – to no avail.

Oregon 45  Penn St. 37:  The Nittany Lions outgained Oregon for the game, but two INTs by the Ducks gave them just enough edge to post a victory here as Oregon is the Big-10 champion in its first year of Big-10 competition.

 Boise St. 21  UNLV 7:  Ashton Jeanty carried 32 times and gained 209 yards plus a TD in the game assuring Boise St. a slot in the CFP.  As it turns out, they also got a BYE week out of the deal.  The Boise St. defense was on display in the game; here are the drives by UNLV for the first three quarters of the game:

• 5 plays  11  yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  6 yards  PUNT
• 3 plays  minus-8 yards  PUNT
• 9 plays  50 yards  MISSED FIELD GOAL
• 3 plays  4  yards  PUNT
• 2 plays  0 yards  INT
• 7 plays  12 yards  PUNT
• 5 plays  81 yards  TURNOVER ON DOWNS
• 3 plays  2 yards  PUNT

Army 35  Tulane 14:  Tulane had – – supposedly – – the high-octane offense here and Army was more of a “ground and pound” sort of team.  Tulane gained 210 yards passing as compared to Army’s 17 yards passing (on 2 for 2 attempts by the way).  But the Cadets also managed to rush the ball for 335 yards in the game and forced 2 turnovers to win the game going away.

 

Games of Interest This Week:

 

Navy vs. Army – 6.5 (39):  The two teams combined to produce a record of 19-4 this season.  I have seen large parts of 3 Navy games this year and 2 Army games this year.  Army is the better team.  Would I lay points in a rivalry game like this? No thank you, but I must admit I am tempted to take the game to stay UNDER.  Nonetheless, I’ll just watch Army/Navy and enjoy the all-out effort by everyone on every play.

 

NFL Commentary

 

The NY Jets have been mathematically eliminated from the AFC Playoffs as a result of their loss to the Dolphins last week.  Given the return to availability of Aaron Rodgers and given the performance of the Jet’s defense in 2023, I did not foresee this state of affairs.  I did not expect the Jets to make a run to the Super Bowl this year, but I also did not expect them to be mathematically eliminated with 4 games left on the schedule and a record of 3-10-0.

Perhaps I should have let recent history be my guide to expectations for the Jets.  The last time the Jets made the AFC playoffs was in 2010.  Here are some milestones from that year to refresh your memory:

• The iPad was first offered to the public.
• The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico happened.
• Rex Ryan was the head coach of the NY Jets
• Instagram launched
• “Arab Spring” was a big thing
• Mark Sanchez was the starting QB for the NY Jets.
• This was two years BEFORE the Butt-Fumble.

It has been a long and frustrating time for Jets’ fans, and it does not look as if there is a bright light ahead in their tunnel.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well over the next four games because I do believe he wants to play again in 2025 – – but not for the Jets.  Therefore, he needs to put “good performance” on tape for other offensive coaches to see and evaluate – – and then hopefully lead them to offer him a contract.

My conclusion that Rodgers wants to play in 2025 derives from me practicing psychoanalysis without a license and at a distance – – never really particularly reliable.  In the vernacular, I think Aaron Rodgers is an “attention whore”; I think he derives great satisfaction from being the center of attention whereby he can offer up some of his well-beyond normal viewpoints on everything from vaccine effectiveness to ayahuasca value.  Now because I think that is the case, I think that Aaron Rodgers is smart enough to realize that unless he is a starting NFL QB, his purchase on that outré limb of the social tree is not very secure.  When he is merely “Aaron Rodgers – – Very Wealthy Former Athlete with Weirdo Views”, he is going to have far fewer opportunities to be a center of attention, and I think he does not relish that situation in his future.

So, as of today, the Jets have the 7^th pick in the Draft next year.  I think Rodgers can win the Jets one game and maybe two games in the remaining four games and that will not give the Jets nearly as valuable a Draft pick as they have now.  But Rodgers does not plan or want to be with the Jets in 2025 or beyond, so do not be surprised if he ups his game and “leads” the Jets to at least a 4-13-0 record if not a 5-12-0 record.

Maybe there is something in the water supply in NYC that makes football players prone to ineptitude.  As bad as a 3-10-0 record by the Jets may be, the other NY team – – the Giants – – are worse at 2-11-0 and the Giants do not have a QB on their roster who might – – potentially – – carry the team to a couple of wins.  Aaron Rodgers may be having the worst year of his career, but if you had to pick a NYC QB to win a key game, you would surely take Rodgers over Drew Lock or “Tommy Cutlets”.

I was looking ahead in the NFL schedule to decide what to say about the Jets for the rest of the year and ran across the fact that the Raiders and the Jags will face off in Las Vegas next week in a 4:30 PM time slot.  I want to go on record now without having spent the time and energy to look at the complete NFL card for next weekend and say that the Jags/Raiders game on December 22^nd 2024 will be the pre-emptive Dog-Breath Game of the Week.

One more note from my looking ahead at the rest of the NFL schedule …  The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently 10-3-0 and lead the AFC North.  The Steelers are a very good team, and they are benefiting from the reincarnation of Russell Wilson as their QB.  Having said all that positive stuff, the Steelers’ schedule from here to the end of the regular season is brutal; the schedule maker did the Steelers no favors down the stretch with this parade of opponents:

• 12/15/24  @ Philly   Eagles are 11-2-0 as of today.
• 12/21/24  @ Baltimore  Ravens are 8-5-0 as of today.
• 12/25/24  Vs. KC  Chiefs are 12-1-0 as of today.
• 1/5/25  Vs. Cincy  Bengals are 5-8-0 as of today.
• Combined, the next 4 Steelers’ opponents are 36-16-0.  Wow!

Here is an interesting stat I ran across; it says that the Cards and Kyler Murray are far more formidable early in the season than late in the season.  Make of this what you will:

• Cards are 22-16-1 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 8 or earlier.
• Cards are 12-28-0 when Murray starts a game for them in Week 9 or later.

The Miami Dolphins and Odell Beckham, Jr. have come to a mutual agreement and a parting of the ways; OBJ has been released.  This has not been a good season for the WR; he has appeared in 9 games this year with 9 receptions for 55 yards.

Here is a look at some of last week’s NFL games.

Bengals 27  Cowboys 20:  If you have been an NFL fan for a long enough period of time, you will understand that the Bengals won this game because of a second “Leon Lett Incident” in the late stages of the game.  If that reference does not mean anything to you, Google is your friend.

Vikes 42  Falcons 21:  At one point in this game, the score was tied 21-21.  Kirk Cousins’ “revenge game” did not play out well for the Falcons’ QB.

Jags 10  Titans 6:  The Titans turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Jags’ 10-yardline.  The Jags did not really “win” this game; they merely “avoided losing” this game.

Saints 14  Giants 11: A blocked field goas at the end of the game by the Saints prevented OT.  For those fans who were forced to watch this game as a “local game”, that must have been a blessing; no one would have wanted this game to go on beyond 60 minutes of regulation time.

Seahawks 30  Cards 18:  The Cards had a hot streak in mid-season but that appears to be over and done with.  The Seahawks and Rams look to be the class of the NFC West.

Rams 44  Bills 42:  The score does not indicate it, but both teams played decent defense in this game; the score reflects that both offenses were on fire all night long.  All Bills’ QB Josh Allen did was to throw for 3 TDs and rush for 3 more.  Not a bad day at the office …  And yet, it was not enough.  The Bills scored 6 TDs in the game and did not turn the ball over.  That leads to this statistical oddity:

• Since the NFL/AFL merger, teams scoring 6 TDs and managing never to turn the ball over in a game were 245-0.
• Now they are 245-1 …

Chiefs 19  Chargers 17:  This time, the Chiefs’ miracle ending was a chip shot field goal that “doinked” off the upright and dropped behind the crossbar as time expired.  Why not?

Lions 34  Packers 31:  The Lions were 7 for 15 in third-down conversions and 4 for 5 in fourth down conversions.  One of those fourth down conversions was in the final two minutes that set up the winning field goal in the game.

 

NFL Games This Week

 

            There are no more BYE Weeks in the NFL regular season; there will be a full slate of 16 games each weekend from here to the end of the season.  Many of the games will be in non-traditional time slots, but there will be sixteen of them every weekend.

Interestingly, “home field advantage” seems to have taken a week off in the NFL this week.  Seven of the fifteen remaining games for this weekend have the visiting team favored by 2.5 points (Packers) to 16 points (Ravens).

In last night’s action the Rams beat the Niners 12-6.  Yes, all the scores were field goals; neither endzone lost its virginity for the entirety of the game.  The Total Line for the game closed at 48.5 points; yes, there was bad weather in the first half, but people playing the UNDER were never worried.  The Rams’ hopes for the playoffs – – and even for the division championship of the NFC West – – remain alive.  The Niners are not mathematically eliminated but it would take an intervention by someone’s Fairy Godmother to get the Niners into this year’s playoffs.

According to Niner’s coach, Kyle Shanahan, LB, De’Vondre Campbell refused to into the game in the second half last night.  Instead of going onto the field as instructed, Campbell decided to take his game to the locker room.  According to Spotrac.com, Campbell signed a 1-year contract with the Niners last year; that contract may have reached termination last night.  This will not end well; Campbell also left the Packers with a bit of drama in the past.

Commanders – 7.5 at Saints (43.5):  The spread opened at 3.5 points and the Total Line opened at 47.5.  When folks began to realize that the Saints would be starting either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener at QB for the game, both lines moved significantly.  Some local sports radio shows here have tried to play this up as a “Chase Young Revenge Game” for the Saints’ DE.  Any port in a storm is my reaction there.  The Commanders had their BYE Week last week, so they are “rested” and “ready to go”.  I would greatly prefer to play this game without that hook on top of the full TD spread, but as of this morning such is not the case.  Nonetheless, I’ll take the Commanders to win and cover even on the road; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Dolphins at Texans – 2.5 (47):  The Texans have a comfy 2-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South; the Dolphins cannot win the AFC East, but they still have a low-probability of being part of the AFC Playoffs.  The motivation edge here is clearly with the Dolphins.

Jets – 3.5 at Jags (40):  This game was ever so close to getting the Dog-Breath label for this week.  This is one of the games the Jets can/should win and when/if they do, it will hurt their Draft position come April 2025.  The Jags are a complete mess.  If QB is “the most important position”, then this game boils down to Aaron Rodgers versus Mac Jones.  Normally, I stay far away from games involving two bad teams, but I really do think the Jets have the edge here; so, I’ll take the Jets on the road and lay the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Bengals – 5 at Titans (46):  The Bengals finally found an opponent last week who could make a bigger blunder at a critical time than the Bengals had been doing for the season.  Was that a turning point for the Bengals?  The Titans faced a mediocre defense last week (Jags) and scored the grand total of 6 points; this is another severely flawed defense opposing the Titans’ offense.  Does that Titans’ unit have sufficient pride and sufficient talent to take advantage here?

Ravens – 16 at Giants (42.5): The spread opened at 12.5 points and then it was revealed that Drew Lock was in a “walking boot” and that “Tommy Cutlets” was getting the reps with the starting team during the week.  The Ravens are in a comfortable position with regard to making the playoffs; they still have a chance to win their division if for no other reason than the Steelers (current AFC North leader) has a very difficult schedule between now and January 5^th (see above).  I do not play NFL games with double-digit spreads; so, this one is off the board for me.  But I do think the Ravens will coast to a victory here.  For your information, the Ravens are mnus-1600 on the Money Line.

Chiefs – 4 at Browns (43):  The Chiefs are 12-1-0; the Browns are 3-10-0.  This short-priced spread reflects the reality that the Chiefs are 12-1-0 but they only have a point differential of 56 points.  By comparison, the Lions also are 12-1-0 but the Lions have a point differential of 183 points.  Given the way things have played out this year, expect the Browns’ QB, Jameis Winston to throw for at least 350 yards and also to throw a couple of really hurtful INTs allowing the Chiefs to prevail.  But by more than 4 points … ?  Here is a trend for those of you who follow such things:

• In their last 7 games, the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread.

Cowboys at Panthers – 2.5 (43):  Can you believe that a team that went 2-15 last year is the favorite over “America’s Team” this week?  In terms of a battle between gigantic owners’ egos, this game has to be monumental.  The Panthers’ record is 3-10-0 but they have played some good teams very tough in the last several weeks.  I think the Panthers extinguish the Cowboys’ playoff hopes with a win in this game; I’ll take the Panthers to win and cover at home; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Steelers at Eagles – 5.5 (43):  I read somewhere that the Steelers have not won over the Eagles in Philly since 1965.  The Steelers were not very good in 1965; their record for the year was 2-12-0.  The 2025 iteration of the Steelers is much better than that.  Here is a betting stat to keep in mind for this game:

• The Steelers have been underdogs 5 times this season.
• The Steelers won all 5 of those games outright.

Bills at Lions – 2 (53.5):  This is the Game of the Week; it just might be a Super Bowl preview game.  As important as the Steelers/Eagles game is to both teams, this one is the standout game this week; the two teams combine to bring a record of 22-4-0 to the kickoff.  Both teams aspire to the BYE Week in the playoffs in their conference; for the Lions, it means winning to maintain the lead they have; for the Bills it means win or fall way behind the Chiefs with not a lot of time remaining.  The Total Line for this game opened at 51.5 points and has been inching upward all week long; I think this will be a shootout where two very good offenses exploit two good but not great defenses; I’ll take the game to go OVER; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.

Colts at Broncos – 4 (44):  As of now, the Broncos are a wild card team in the AFC Playoffs and the Colts are chasing them for that final playoff slot.  This game is must-win for the Colts, but I think that the Broncos’ defense is good enough to keep Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson in check.  So, can Colts’ RB, Jonathan Taylor win the day for Indy?  More importantly, can Anthony Richardson avoid doing something that assures a loss for the Colts?

Bucs at Chargers – 3 (45):  The Bucs have clawed their way back to the top of the NFC South and hold a 1-game lead over the Falcons who are road favorites this week.  The Chargers lost a heartbreaker to the Chiefs last week (see above) and really do not want to lose another and get deep into the muck and mire of wildcard playoff tiebreakers.

Pats at Cards – 6 (46.5):  This game – – like the Jets/Jags game got some thought as a Dog-Breath game – – but the Cards are still viable as division champs of the NFC West.  So, let it be sufficient to say that the Cards must win this game and should win it comfortably.  But do I trust Kyler Murray …?  The Pats had last week off to get ready for the season’s “home stretch”; the Cards lost their third game in a row last week.

(Sun Nite) Packers – 2.5 at Seahawks (45.5):  As of this morning, both teams are “in the playoffs”.  The Seahawks’ position is slightly more precarious; as of today, they are a half-game ahead of the Rams in their division; meanwhile, the Packers are comfortably positioned in the wildcard chase.  Motivation edge goes to the Seahawks at home.  Offensive firepower edge goes to the Packers on the road.

(Mon Nite early) Bears at Vikes – 7 (44):  I am sure the ESPN execs were happy to get MNF double headers during the regular season and they paid top-dollar for them.  So in this particular double header, this game is the better of the two by a lot – – even though the Bears have lost 7 games in a row after losing to the Commanders on that Hail Mary Miracle.

(Mon Nite late) Falcons – 4 at Raiders (44.5):  Here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  The Falcons bring a 4-game losing streak to the game; the Raiders see that losing streak and raise it by an added 5 games.  It’s a shame there is no way for both teams to lose here to maintain the “tradition” they have created for themselves.  If the Falcons fall behind, is this where they turn to Michael Penix, Jr.?  Who will be the Raiders’ QB?  Aiden O’Connell with his bone bruise or Desmond Ridder who would seek to resurrect his career with a win here?

So let me review the “Betting Bundle”:

• Commanders – 7.5 over Saints
• Jets – 3.5 over Jags
• Panthers – 2.5 over Cowboys
• Bills/Lions OVER 53.5

And here are three Money Line Parlays

• Army @ minus-200
• Panthers @ minus-150     $100 wager to win $150

And …

• Bengals @ minus-230
• Commanders @ minus-370
• Vikes 2 minus-300     $100 wager to win $143

And a Money Line Parlay with “plus-money” on all three legs …

• Dolphins @ +135
• Steelers @ +200
• Bills @ +125     $100 wager to win $1,486

Finally, let me close with this from Vince Lombardi:

“If it doesn’t matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………