Football Friday – – On Thursday – – 10/17/24

Today will be a marginal attempt at a Football Friday presented a day early and without sufficient information gathering.  It’s the best I have to offer at this time …

I’ll begin by catching up with the fortunes of the Linfield University Wildcats in their pursuit of yet one more winning season in football.  Since last we checked, Linfield has won two Northwest conference games by a combined score of 117-14; their record for the season stands at 4-1 and this week they take to the road to play George Fox University.  The Bruins bring a 3-2 season record to the kickoff; this is another Northwest Conference game.  Go Wildcats!

Let me also catch up with the fortunes of my previously identified “sleeper team” for 2024 – – the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  So far this year, Nebraska is 5-1 losing to Illinois in overtime 3 weeks ago.  This week, they are on the road at Indiana to take on one of the most surprising stories in college football for the year.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 on the season; the combined score of those 6 wins is 273-89.  As surprising as that may be for Indiana football accomplishments, the game this week in Bloomington is a sell-out and tickets are going on the secondary markets for as much as 50% over face value.  This should be an interesting game from several perspectives.  Go Huskers!

 

College Football Commentary:

 

If Indiana’s football fortunes are “surprising” to date in the 2024 season, Vandy has been equally surprising.  The Commodores are 4-2 which has not been the way the team has opened the last several seasons.  Moreover, they lost an overtime game by only 3 points to Missouri when the Tigers were ranked #7 in the nation.  Even more surprising was Vandy beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago.  The Commodores have a tune-up game this week hosting Ball State before taking on #1 ranked Texas at home next week.

With the expanded CFP, at least one school outside the so-called Power-4 conferences is guaranteed a slot in the playoffs.  At this point, there seems to be 4 teams in the “other conferences” that are in contention for that tournament berth:

1. Boise St:  Yes, the Broncos have one loss this year – – but that loss was by 3 points to Oregon which is ranked #2 in the country at the moment.
2. James Madison:  The Dukes’ record is 5-1 and the wins include a drubbing of UNC by a score of 70-50.
3. Liberty:  The Flames are undefeated at 5-0 on the season.  While they have played a particularly weak schedule to date, they can only play the teams on their schedule; they have done that and won all their games …
4. UNLV:  The Rebels are 5-1 for the year posting wins over Kansas and Houston.  The loss was at home against Syracuse.

Next week, Boise St. will venture south to Las Vegas to take on UNLV in what will probably be an elimination game for the loser.  Circle that game on your calendar …

There are reports that the SEC and the Big-10 are having “preliminary discussions” about a scheduling agreement whereby the two conferences would schedule games against each other as non-conference games.  The humongous TV ratings for the Texas/Michigan game earlier this year probably got the attention of the financial folks in both conferences and could have been the motivating force for this sort of thinking.

If this comes to pass, some of the “scheduled cupcakes” will need to be replaced or “bought out” but the potential for TV revenue in place of one or two of those sacrificial lamb games should more than pay the freight.  I know these are “preliminary discussions” and that implementation might be several years in the future even if there is a meeting of the minds resulting from these talks.  Nevertheless:

• If big money – – I mean really big money – – shows itself for this sort of scheduling, do not be surprised if SEC and Big-10 Conference mavens think about the next step.
• The conferences could “merge” and then split into two divisions within the merged conference.  The teams would play one another exclusively and might go through a prometon and relegation process each year to maintain interest in games to the end of the season.
• That could be good news for fans who watch college games on TV but it will deny some of the “cupcake schools” of hefty payments from the big schools who pay millions of dollars to the cupcakes to come and take a beating by the big guys – – often at Homecoming Weekend.

I said before that I do not think the realignment/restructuring of college football ended with the collapse of the PAC-12 and the expansion of the SEC, the Big-10 and the Big-12.  These “preliminary discussions” between the two biggest conferences might be a start to even more change and consolidation.

Each year, I keep track of scoring defense for college teams.  At the end of the year, I identify the Brothel Defense of the Year – – so named because it is easy to score on that defense.  With 5 or 6 games in the books, it is time to look at the contenders for this annual “award”:

• Utah St. gives up 42.8 points per game
• Ball St. gives up 46.0 points per game
• Kent St. gives up 49.0 points per game.

For the record, UMass is a two-time winner of this “award”.  Lasts year, the Minutemen won it by allowing 37.8 points per game.  Looking at this year’s stats, it looks as if the “winner” in 2024 will be even more generous.

It is still too early to have clarity on teams for my imaginary SHOE Tournament at the end of the season.  Nevertheless, there are some comments to be thrown out today regarding some bottom-feeding teams.

• If I have counted correctly, there are still 3 winless teams for the 2024 season; they are Kennesaw St. (0-5), Kent St. (0-6) and UTEP (0-6).
• There are lots of teams with only 1 win in 2024.  Some are often seen as contenders for the SHOE Tournament such as Akron, New Mexico St. and UMass.
• This year, there are some surprising teams with only 1 win this late in October such as Florida St. and UCLA.

#5 Georgia at #1Texas is clearly the game of the week in college football this weekend.  Here is an interesting tidbit for that game:

• Georgia is 50-0 in its last 50 games against schools not named Alabama.

 

NCAA Games of Interest This Week:

 

Kentucky – 2 at Florida (43):  Not a good time to be a Gator fan…  The good news for Florida is that Kentucky ranks 114^th in the country in scoring – – only 20.5 points per game.

Alabama – 3 at Tennessee (54):  Alabama has allowed 25 or more points in its last 3 games.  Tennessee has failed to score 25 points in any of its last 3 games.  Something has to give here…

Notre Dame – 12 at Georgia Tech (48):  That seems like a lot of points to give to a Tech team at home that scores an average of 33 points per game.

Georgia at Texas – 4.5 (56):  No question this is the Game of the Week.

Nebraska at Indiana – 5.5 (50.5):  Indiana is bowl-eligible two weeks before Halloween.  If you had that back in August, raise your hand.  I surely did not…

Miami – 5 at Louisville (60):  The Hurricanes are 6-0 after eking out a 1-point win over Cal two weeks ago.

UCLA at Rutgers – 5 (41):  Looks like Chip Kelly got out of UCLA at the right time…

 

NFL Commentary:

 

Earlier this week, I was commenting on NFL QB movement in the off season and mentioned in passing that every once in a while, a team will win the Super Bowl with a less-than-HoF-caliber QB.  I used Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien as examples there.  Soon after posting I got an email from a former colleague; here is the meat of that message:

“Dr. Curmudgeon.  Old age must be catching up with you because your (sic) slipping.  You call out Trent Dilfer as a surprising winner in the Super Bowl, but you don’t remind everyone that was the worst [bleeping] pair of QBs in any Super Bowl game.  Go look it up.”

So, I went and looked it up.

• In Super Bowl XXXV, the Ravens beat the Giants.  Trent Dilfer was the winning QB; Kerry Collins was the losing QB.

My former colleague is correct; I am slipping; my curmudgeon street-cred took a serious hit with that omission.  I did not recall Kerry Collins ever participating in a Super Bowl game.  For shame…

Last week there as a report that Deshaun Watson has settled the outstanding civil suit against him for sexual harassment/abuse.  I believe that is the 23^rd such civil suit that has been settled prior to any trial activities that might have exposed some of the evidence behind all those allegations and lawsuits.  Nevertheless, that sordid saga may not be over just yet because Commissioner Goodell announced that the league is in the process of seeing if actions in the latest settlement put Watson in violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.  Remember that Watson was suspended for 11 games in 2022; so, that statement by the Commissioner is puzzling.

I know that the NFL is not the same thing as the US penal code, but I would think that the concept of “double jeopardy” would apply in the NFL.  Ergo, since Watson had already been punished for this sort of behavior, I wonder what new information might make him subject to additional punishment now.

In a morbid sense, any added punishment for Watson by the NFL might be a blessing to the Cleveland Browns.  Forget the very large and fully guaranteed contract the Browns lavished on Watson and the myriad “distractions” he brought to the locker room; the Browns might be better off with a different QB on the field.  I suspect that Watson is the starter in Cleveland simply because of that contract and the embarrassment that would accrue to the owner that gave him that contract because Deshaun Watson has stunk out the joint in Cleveland.

I realize that the backup in Cleveland is Jameis Winston who has shown over 9 years in the NFL that he is a journeyman QB at best.  Having said that, Watson has been worse.  Consider:

• The Browns have scored 16 points per game in 2024 and have averaged 240 yards per game on offense.  A good-not-great game for a QB involves passing for 250 yards without adding in any offensive contribution from the running game.
• In his last 36 third-down situations, Watson has failed to convert a single one.
• I know that the ESPN-derived QB Rating is a flawed measuring stick but at the extremes it has some value.  The scale is zero to 100 and in 2024 Deshaun Watson’s QB Rating is 21.5.

When asked specifically and directly if the team would stick with Watson as the QB, coach Kevin Stefanski simply said, “Yes.”  I have no way to know what is going on behind the curtain in Cleveland, but it is not difficult for me to imagine that Stefanski understands that benching Watson for poor performance is a decision to be made at a higher pay level…

There may be a ray of hope in Cleveland; Nick Chubb is back from his latest severe leg injury and could play starting this week.  Chubb’s rehab from a gruesome leg injury in college was inspiring and the injury he suffered last year was similarly ghastly.  He put that college injury behind him to become one of the best RBs in the NFL until the injury last year.  If he can regain that form, he will take some of the pressure off Deshaun Watson and goose the Browns’ offense to a higher level.

The Steelers reportedly are ready to change QBs despite sporting a 4-2 record with Justin Fields under center.  It appears that Russell Wilson’s calf injury has healed, and the Steelers intend to insert him into the lineup.  I find that unusual because more than once in the past, Steeler’s coach, Mike Tomlin, has said that winning is the only thing that matters and that there are no bad wins or good losses.  If the reports are correct and he is making the change, that seems to me to be a change in philosophy.  That is a situation clearly worth watching…

The Lions lost their best DL, Aiden Hutchinson, last week to a broken leg; he underwent surgery this week and is out for the season.  The odds on the Lions to win the Super Bowl doubled overnight in Las Vegas with that news.  The Lions have talent all through their roster; even so, Hutchinson might have been their best player; this loss could be devastating.  The fact that the Lions are in the uber-competitive NFC North means their strength of schedule for the rest of the year is daunting.  Two weeks ago, I would have said that the Lions were odds-on to make the playoffs; with Hutchinson gone, make those odds 7 to 5 for the Lions to make the playoffs let alone win the Super Bowl.

In the game where Hutchinson was injured, the opponent was the Cowboys and despite the loss of Hutchinson, the Cowboys were steamrollered by a score of 47-9 and it may not have been that close.  The Cowboys’ defense was simply pushed around and bullied from start to finish giving up 492 yards of total offense including 184 yards rushing.  The Lions gained 7.5 yards per offensive play in the game.  The Cowboys are 3-0 on the road which is as good as a team could hope to be.  At home, it is a different story; at home, the Cowboys have given up 119 points in 3 home games.  One need not be a math whiz or a football seer to recognize that giving up about 40 points per game is not a recipe for success.  Indeed, the Cowboys are 0-3 in home games in 2024.  The Cowboys have this week off; they need it.

 

NFL Games This Week:

 

            Two teams have their BYE Week now:

1. Bears:  They are 4-2 in 2024 which has them tied for last place with the Packers in the highly competitive NFC North.
2. Cowboys:  They are 3-3 which has them in third place in the eminently winnable NFC East.

(Thurs Nite) Broncos – 3 at Saints (37):  I suggest that the coaching angle is the only interesting part of this game.

• Sean Payton returns to New Orleans with his Broncos squad.
• Dennis Allen’s team was embarrassed by the Bucs last week giving up 51 points.
• Ho-hum …

Pats vs Jags – 6 (42.5)  Game is in London:  This is without question the Dog-Breath Game of the Week.  Neither team is any good.  The Pats’ anemic offense gets to play against the very porous Jags’ defense; that might be fun to watch.  But not enough “fun” for me to get up and be ready to watch football at 9:00 AM on Sunday.  This game might set back NFL popularity in Europe significantly.

Seahawks at Falcons – 3 (51):  The Seahawks won their first three games this year; then they lost three in a row.  This is a “body-clock game” for the Seahawks after a flight of about 2800 miles to reach the venue.  The Falcons lead their division – – via a preliminary tiebreaker – – having won their last three games in a row.

Titans at Bills – 9 (41):  If this game plays to form, you can watch to see what sort of magical plays Josh Allen will put on display AND you can watch to see what sort of boneheaded plays Will Levis will make.

Bengals – 6 at Browns (42):  The Bengals’ defense has been bad so far in 2024.  Can the equally bad Browns’ offense exploit that?

Texans – 3 at Packers (48):  I thought about this as the Game of the week for a moment.  The two teams have a combined record of 9-3 at the kickoff and both teams need a win:

• The Texans need a win to maintain their lead in the AFC South
• The Packers need a win because at least one of the NFC North teams ahead of them today is going to lose on Sunday.

Dolphins at Colts – 3 (43.5):  At least the Broncos/Saints game had a coaching angle to give it a patina of “interesting”.  This game is a snoozer…

Lions at Vikes – 1.5 (51): Here is my Game of the Week.  The Vikes lead the NFC North at 5-0.  The Lions are second in the Division at 4-1.  The Vikes have a point differential of +63.  The Lions have a point differential of +60.  Too bad the NFL did not flex this game to a late afternoon time slot.

Eagles – 3 at Giants (42.5):  The NFC East is winnable; all four teams have enough flaws to make you think they cannot possibly win the division – – but someone will come January 2025.  Therefore, every division game is an important one.

Raiders at Rams – 7 (43.5):  This match got fleeting consideration as the Dog-Breath Game of the Week because the Rams are injury riddled and the Raiders are a hot mess.  Both teams are last in their division.  Move on; there is nothing to see here…

Panthers at Commanders – 8 (51): The Commanders lead the winnable NFC East at this point despite their defense which gives up more than 24 points per game.  The reason is Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense which puts 29,7 points per game on the scoreboard.  The Panthers’ defense gives up 33.8 points per game.  This should be a romp.

Chiefs at Niners – 1 (47):  The Niners need this game badly; they are 3-3 so far in 2024 and are tied for the lead in the NFC West.  The Chiefs are undefeated so far at 5-0 but their margins of victory have been small.  Even after winning all 5 games, the Chiefs have a point differential of only +33.

(Sun Nite) Jets – 2 at Steelers (38):  Tune in to see how Davante Adams’ hamstring injury has miraculously healed on his flight from Las Vegas to NYC.  Tune in to see the Pittsburgh soap opera, As the Quarterback Turns.  The Jets are 2.5 games behind the Bills in the AFC East and the Bills have an eminently winnable game this week against the Titans (see above).  Thus, the Jets need this game badly.  Meanwhile the Steelers are tied for the lead with the Ravens in the AFC North and similarly need a win here.  It should be a fun game to watch.

(Mon Nite Early) Ravens – 3.5 at Bucs (48):  This one got Game of the Week consideration too.  Both teams are tied for the lead in their respective divisions making it an important game for both teams.  The stats say it should be a close game:

• Bucs have scored 178 points this year; Ravens have scored 177 points.
• Bucs have given up 141 points this year; Ravens have given up 149 points.

(Mon Nite Late) Chargers – 2 at Cards (44):  The Cards’ 2-4 record has them only 1 game away from the lead in the disappointing NFC West.  Having seen the Cards twice this year, it is hard to imagine them as a “division leader”.  Meanwhile the Chargers find themselves in second place in the AFC West with a 3-2 record.  I will be watching the Ravens/Bucs game on Monday night, but during breaks in that game, I will peek in to be sure that Jim Harbaugh is still on the Chargers’ sideline.

I have not had time to pay nearly close enough attention to make serious picks for a “Betting Bundle”, so take these picks with a grain of salt:

• I like Oregon St. +7.5 against UNLV
• I like Georgia tech +12 against Notre Dame
• I like the Texans/Packers game OVER 48
• I like the Panthers/Commanders game OVER 51
•  I like the Chargers – 2 over the Cards
• I like the Giants +3 against the Eagles – – followed by a Nick Siriani meltdown.

And if you like Money Line parlays, think about these:

• LSU @ minus-125 with James Madison @ minus-350.  Bet $100 to win $131
• Giants @ +145 with Commanders @ minus-380.  Bet $100 to win $209.

Finally, a thought from Vince Lombardi:

“Winning is not a sometime thing; it’s an all the time thing. You don’t win once in a while… you don’t do things right once in a while… you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………