NFL Win Totals For 2024

Due to family and travel events over the next eight weeks, my football analyses will come in dribs and drabs instead of in long-format rants.  Today, I want to start with NFL Win Total Lines with some picks against the numbers.  Win total bets are very simple; the oddsmaker sets a number representing the number of wins an NFL team will have at the end of the regular season; the bettor selects OVER or UNDER.  This has all the complexity of a PB&J sandwich.

Each sportsbook wants to have a “balanced book” meaning they have the same amount bet OVER as is bet UNDER; that would lead one to believe that there could be different lines at different sportsbooks.  In fact, the betting market for Win Totals is particularly efficient; this weekend and this morning as I was checking around at different sportsbooks, I only found a handful of different numbers to play and the difference from book to book was never greater than half-a-game.

Let me start with my four OVERs:

1. Vikes OVER 6.5 wins:  The Vikes were playoff eligible in Week 18 last year despite losing their starting QB in Week 8.  They will start Sam Darnold at QB this season and – – believe it or not – – he is an upgrade over what finished out the season for the Viles in 2023.
2. Commanders OVER 6.5 wins:  They have an easy schedule in 2024 combined with a new coaching staff, a new starting QB and a solid but not spectacular defense.
3. Texans OVER 10.5 wins:  The Texans won 10 games last year; unless CJ Stroud suffers a severe sophomore slump, the Texans should be better in 2024.
4. Bears OVER 8.5 wins:  The Bears won 7 games last year and added Caleb Williams.  Unless he is a bust, he should be worth 2 wins this season…

These are “temptations” as OVERs but I will not make them as “official picks”:

• Broncos OVER 5.5 wins:  With Russell Wilson gone, the drama coefficient facing the team is reduced significantly.
• Jets OVER 9.5 wins:  With Aaron Rodgers in the building the drama coefficient facing the team is increased – – but so is the offensive potential for a team that won 7 games in 2023.

Now for two UNDERs:

1. Cards UNDER 7.5 wins:  They are in a difficult division and have a difficult schedule against teams outside the division.
2. Giants UNDER 6.5 wins:  I think the Giants could go 0-6 in their division…

Here are some “temptations” as UNDERs:

• Pats UNDER 4.5 wins:  The Pats will be bad in 2024; can they be that bad?
• Titans UNDER 6.5 wins:  If Will Levis is healthy and for real, they might win 7 games against an easy schedule – – but if not…
• Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins:  The Raiders’ schedule is brutal…
• Bills UNDER 10.5 wins:  The Bills’ schedule is as tough as the Raiders’ schedule.  The Bills won 11 games last year, but their division has improved overall from last year.

Let me stay with NFL stuff for the rest of today…  I now want to make a strong suggestion to the sports writers and commentators who touch on NFL matters:

• It is time to give the Brandon Aiyuk storyline a rest.  Until he is either traded somewhere, given an extension by the Niners or simply reports to Niners camp ready to play in the 2024 regular season, there is no more “news” to be gleaned here.

Please, no more breathless reporting by beat reporters or by “insiders” who have “sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations” about anything other than the events outlined above.  Those “sources” are either the player, his agent(s), or a team functionary who is leaking something they want “out there” for the public to see.  We have seen enough to know what the problem is:

• Brandon Aiyuk has staked out his claim on some territory in “Wide Receiver Diva-Land”.
• He thinks – – correctly by the way – – that he would be underpaid for the 2024 season with his current deal.
• He wants a hefty contract extension or a trade; the Niners have yet to agree to either condition.
• Aiyuk”s “Diva-ness” compels him to keep his name in the news at least three times a week.
• The public only cares about the end-state now; this storyline is well past its “sell-by date”.

Finally, I’ll close today with this from Cooper Kupp about playing the WR position:

“When the ball’s in the air, as a receiver, it’s just you want to be a Frisbee-catching dog out there.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………