The NFL Draft – – A Cautionary Tale

I was scrolling through the sports channels yesterday looking to find the most interesting thing to watch when I happened across NFL Network and its coverage of the Combine.  A QB prospect from W. Kentucky named Bailey Zappe had just completed his 40-yard dash and the screen graphic said it was 4.88 and at that point I realized a couple of things:

• I had never heard the name Bailey Zappe; so, I was surprised to learn that he was a Combine invitee.
• I know that CBs and WRs normally record times for the 40-yard dash around 4.3 seconds, but I did not know what was a “normal time” for a QB off the top of my head.
• The standard evaluation of this year’s QB crop is that it does not have a sure-fire star or two at the top of the class or even a lot of depth in the class.

That convinced me to go and find out what sort of impressions folks took away from the entirety of the workouts from yesterday’s Combine performances.  From the reporting, here is what I learned:

• QBs had their hands measured and people surprised to see that one of the top prospects – – Kenny Pickett from Pitt – – has a “very small hand.”  His hand measures 8 ½ inches and only one other QB measured below 9 inches with one QB having a 10-inch hand.  [For the record, my hand measures at 9 ¼ inches to give you a “real world” perspective.]
• The fastest 40-yard dash time for one of the QBs  yesterday was 4.52 seconds by Desmond Ridder from Cincy.  That is the same fastest 40-yard dash time recorded for all the tight end prospects this year recorded by Chigoziem Okonkwo from Maryland.
• There are 15 QBs performing at the Combine this year.  A quick glance through my notes from watching college football games last year does not reveal a surfeit of praise for the folks on that list.

And that last item led me to start thinking this morning about lean years for teams that are looking to find a QB in the Draft.  [Aside:  In case you were wondering how and why I get mired in Google searches for sports stuff, this meander into NFL Draft history might provide an example.]  So, I started looking back at NFL Drafts to see when the last “lean year for QBs” occurred.

It took a while before I got back to the 2013 NFL Draft.  I wasn’t looking just for the presence of future Hall of Fame prospects in these drafts, I was looking to see if there were a handful of reliable starters in the batches.  Here is what I came up with for 2013:

• Matt Barkley
• Mike Glennon
• Landry Jones
• EJ Manuel
• Geno Smith

EJ Manuel was the first QB taken in that Draft at pick #16 in the first round; he was the only QB taken in the first round that year.  Geno Smith was the next one off the board early in the second round; of all the QBs taken in 2013, Geno Smith is at the head of the class.  Meaning no disrespect to Geno Smith, that means the QB in that Draft who achieved the most in the NFL barely made it to the journeyman level.

But I did not stop there because there was a draft class that had the potential to be worse because I knew that the overall #1 pick in that draft was a QB and that he was a total bust.  I reasoned that unless there was a “Tom Brady Sleeper” in that draft, it could be even less impressive.  It took me another 20-30 minutes to get to the 2007 NFL Draft.  [Aside:  What I really needed was Mr. Peabody and his Wayback Machine…]

            Here are the QBs from the 2007 Draft who became starters in the NFL:

• John Beck  (2^nd round)
• Trent Edwards  (3^rd round)
• Kevin Kolb (2^nd round)
• Brady Quinn (second QB taken in the draft with pick #22 in the 1^st round)
• JaMarcus Russell (taken first overall in the 2013 Draft)
• Drew Stanton  (2^nd round)
• Tyler Thigpen  (7^th round)

Here is the scary thing about those two lists.  Geno Smith is the best pro QB if you combine the two lists.  This could be a cautionary tale for NFL coaches and GMs looking for a QB in this year’s Draft.  Sure, it is possible to find a Tom Brady in the 6^th round and it is possible to find a Russell Wilson in the 3^rd round and/or a Dak Prescott in the 4^th round, but it is also possible that there are no “top prospects” AND there are also no “hidden gems” in the QB pool.

Finally, for no good reason at all, let me close today with the definition from The Official Dictionary of Sarcasm:

Incoherent:  What you claim your girlfriend is being when you are not yet ready to admit she is right.

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………