Mythical Picks – NFL – Weekend Of 10/9/16

Last week was slightly “profitable” for Mythical Picks; I made 16 picks and the record for the week was 9-7-0. That makes the cumulative season record 38-27-0. That is certainly a better outcome for the first four weeks than many of the NFL teams have experienced.

There were 2 Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Games on the card last weekend and the coin did what you would expect a coin to do. The record for the week was 1-1-0 making the season record for the coin 4-2-0.

The Best Picks of the Week were:

The Worst Picks of the Week were:

As I get myself psyched to present another menu of potentially awesome Mythical Picks, I must remind everyone that no one should use anything contained herein as the basis for making a real wager on a real NFL game involving real money this weekend – or any other weekend. Here is how dumb you would have to be to do so something like that:

You think “13 Shades of Grey” is the edited-for-TV version of the movie.

General Comments:

To start with, I want to pose a couple of general/philosophical questions here:

2. At what point do Giants’ fans – and the coaches in NY – start to worry about Odell Beckham’s ability to focus on football as opposed to whatever it is that gets under his skin during a game? Beckham lost his focus – and his self-control – once again on Monday nite against the Vikings. It does not help the Giants when the defensive coordinator for the other team cobbles together a defensive strategy that minimizes Beckham’s impact on the game. It is a whole other thing when Beckham minimizes his potential impact on the game all by himself.

The San Diego Chargers are 1-3 this year. In all of their losses, they have had the lead in the 4th quarter and then have coughed up a hairball. Twice that 4th quarter lead was 13 points – as it was last week against the Saints. Here is how they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in that game in a home game in San Diego:

Now leading 34-28 points with 4:50 remaining in the game, after a five-yard gain, wideout Travis Benjamin fumbled on the Chargers’ own 31 and the Saints recovered once again. The Saints scored another TD to take the lead 35-34

San Diego never reclaimed any momentum and lost the game 35-34.

I guess you can find a way to attribute fumbling to poor coaching if you want to do so. In the case of Mike McCoy whose record in San Diego now stands at 23-29 coming off a season of 4-12, my guess is that lots of folks will be amenable to that sort of reasoning and “accountability”.

There is a small bit of irony in that 35-34 final score in the Saints/Chargers game. In Week 1, the Saints lost to the Raiders by a score of 35-34; that was the game where Raiders coach, Jack Del Rio, went for 2 points instead of a tie in the final minutes of the game and the Raiders made the conversion. Then last week, the Saints came out on the winning end of a 35-34 game with a dramatic score in the final minute or so.

Last week’s game between the Broncos and the Bucs was delayed for a little more than an hour due to lightning strikes to the land surface in the vicinity of the stadium in Tampa. This is the second week in a row where there has been a “severe weather delay” in Tampa. Two weeks ago, fans returned to see a down-to-the-wire game where the Rams prevailed 37-32. Last week, fans in Tampa pretty much realized what the game outcome was going to be and the vast majority took the opportunity of the “weather-delay” to find their cars in the parking areas and hightail it on home. The Broncos beat the Bucs 27-7; the game was not in doubt as the players, officials and fans waited out the lightning bolts…

Let me add a third general/philosophical question here:

3. Am I the only one who does not understand what is “taunting” and what is “unsportsmanlike conduct” for “excessive celebration” in 2016? Look, I am not a fan of any sort of celebration on the field by players for doing what they are paid to do – such as score TDs or tackle an opposing player for a loss. I would not care if the league outlawed them with ultra-severe penalties to include suspensions and the like. That will not happen and so we have the situation that obtains today. I believe that if I showed you the “excessive celebrations” that have drawn flags this year intermingled with the “acceptable celebrations” that have not drawn penalties, you would be hard-pressed to identify each celebration in its proper category.

Here are data I ran across related to taunting/excessive celebration/unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in 2016:

Dean Blandino – director for the NFL officials – had this explanation with regard to the interpretation of these sorts of rules in 2016:

“ … the key is that if it’s a gesture that either mimics a violent act – that’s something with a firearm or a bow-and-arrow – or a sexually suggestive act, those are unsportsmanlike conduct. That’s … something officials will flag. That’s direct from the Competition Committee and something we are going to try to be as consistent as possible.”

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 22-7 last week. The game was not really that close; the Bengals defense was dominant. The Dolphins gained a total of 222 yards on offense; the Dolphins were 2-11 on third down conversions; the Dolphins amassed a measly 8 first downs in the game; the Dolphins surrendered 5 QB sacks in the game; the Dolphins possessed the ball for just under 22 minutes in the game. The Dolphins’ lone score came on a first quarter pass that covered 73 yards; after that, their total offense was 149 yards. Here is the Dolphins drive chart for this game:

Bengals’ QB, Andy Dalton, was efficient but not spectacular in the game going 22-31 for 296 yards and 1 TD with O INTs. The fact that the Bengals had to settle for 5 field goals in the game was not a huge plus for the Bengals’ offense…

The Jags beat the Colts in the first NFL London Game last week; that win allows Jags’ coach, Gus Bradley, to keep his job at least for now. A glance at the AFC South standings will give you a clue as to how bad that division is.

The Jags sacked Andrew Luck 5 times in the game and were in his face on the vast majority of pass plays; the Colts’ OL is awful.

Memo to Colts’ Front Office:

If Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay, were fully sentient and engaged at this point, he might start to wonder how it can be that his $140M investment in a franchise QB can be left alone out there to be pummeled around like a speed bag. Too bad the Colts’ Front Office still seems to be patting itself on the back for hanging deflated footballs around Tom Brady’s neck…

The crowd in Wembley Stadium for the Colts/Jags game was a sellout of more than 83,000 souls. Since the NFL can sell out games of this caliber, there is no need for the league to consider sending two good teams to London to play – or to send a major rivalry game there.

The Bills beat the Pats 16-0. It is impossible to find a phase of the game where the Pats played well; they played as if they were sleepwalking. Just as it was an over-reaction after 2 opening season losses to think that Rex Ryan should be fired at that point of the season, it is also an over-reaction to think that he and the Bills have turned the corner now and are on their way to Super Bowl contention if not outright victory.

The Seahawks beat the Jets 27-17 last week. Russell Wilson played on a bad ankle and on a sprained MCL and he played very well indeed. At the end of the first half he was 10 for 11 for 192 yards and 2 TDs. That is a good half of football on two good appendages below the waist. Jets’ QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, struggled again last week finding the opponents with his passes on 3 occasions – all in the second half of the game. Over the last two games, Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 INTs; the Jets are 1-3 including 2 losses at home and the Jets are in danger of falling into oblivion when you look at their upcoming schedule:

I am not saying they are going to do this, but the Jets could be 1-6 as of October 24 with two games against the Patriots still on the schedule. Ouch!

The Falcons beat the Panthers 48-33 last week. With one-quarter of the season behind them, the Falcons are 3-1 and the Panthers are 1-3. Raise your hand if you predicted that back in August; I did not! Matt Ryan is coming off a passing game for 504 yards (300 of them to Julio Jones) and if you extrapolate from these 4 games through 16 games, Ryan will pass for just under 5900 yards this season. As a point of reference, that would break the all-time NFL record for passing yards in a season by about 500 yards.

Here is why I doubt that such an extrapolation is a good idea:

I am not throwing shade on Matt Ryan here. After all, he went to high school about 10 miles as the crow flies from where my parents once lived. I just think it is a tad early to make such projections…

Julio Jones had 300 yards receiving in that game. Only 6 players in the history of the NFL have reached that milestone and only 4 have done it since the merger. Here is a Trivia Question:

A: Flipper Anderson with the LA Rams in the 1980s with 336 yards.

In the game against the Panthers, Jones had catches of 32, 43, 53 and 75 yards. I wonder if the Panthers’ braintrust wished they still had Josh Norman playing DB for them? Even more concerning to the Panthers’ braintrust has to be the fact that Cam Newton is in the NFL’s concussion protocol and that LB Thomas Davis left the game with the Falcons with a “hamstring injury” and could not return to the field. The Panthers cannot afford to lose those two guys for any significant period of time.

The Rams beat the Cards 17-13 last week dropping the Cards to 1-3 – the same record as the Panthers; those were the two teams that faced each other last year in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams improved to 3-1 for the season after a Week 1 loss to the Niners that can best be described as throwing up on their shoes. Unlike the Panthers who have lost only 1 home game, this loss was the second for the Cards at home. For the season, Carson Palmer now has thrown 6 TDs and 5 INTs; that is not the way the Cards’ vertical offense succeeds. The Cards’ offense is not hitting the deep ball at all this year; for the last 2 seasons, that has been the explosive element of the entire offense. Carson Palmer is in the NFL’s concussion protocol as a result of a hit in the second half of this game; the Cards cannot afford to have him out of action or performing at 70% of capacity for very long this year if they intend to play meaningful games in January 2017.

The Rams won this game despite the fact that the Cards’ defense held Todd Gurley to a pedestrian 33 yards rushing. Clearly, the Cards’ game plan was to make the Rams throw the ball to win the game; were I devising a game plan against the Rams, I would probably do the same thing. The problem for the Cards is that Case Keenum threw for 2 TDs – one late in the 4th quarter – and that was enough to win the game.

The Rams have not been a factor in the NFC West for a while now. However, it is interesting to note that the Rams have been competitive within their division in the Jeff Fisher Era. Since Fisher took over the Rams – in St. Louis – the team has gone 13-13-1 against NFC West opponents. The Rams do not do nearly as well outside the division…

The Texans beat the Titans 27-20. Brock Osweiler threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs for the Texans in this game. The 2 TD passes were things of beauty; the 2 INTs were head-slapping, what-in-the -world-were-you-thinking throws. The other young QB on the field in this game, Marcus Mariota, was an unimpressive 13 for 29 for 202 yards and 1 INT. Pretty soon, I may be forced to conclude that Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth offense” is not compatible with the development of a young NFL QB…

The Broncos beat the Bucs 27-7 last week. For the second week in a row, the game in Tampa was delayed for an extended period of time due to air-to-ground lightning strikes in the stadium area. Not surprisingly, the Broncos won on defense:

Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had to leave the game with an injured shoulder in the first half. Paxton Lynch came in and played error-free football to seal the victory. Perhaps the fans in Tampa have learned already what to do in weather-delays. Looking at the replays, I would guess that only about 10,000 fans waited it out and came back to watch the end of this game. The vast majority used the delay to go and find their cars in the parking lots and headed on home.

There was an “interesting” coaching decision in the fourth quarter of this game. Trailing 27-7 with 7:30 to go in the game, the Bucs had the ball 4th and 5 at the Broncos’ 45 yardline. They were down three TDs at that point – – and they punted the football. Seemed to me as I watched the replay that this decision was tantamount to “throwing in the towel”. Even if the Bucs could have forced a 3-and-out, what they could look forward to was to get the ball back with about 6:00 left to play. That would have meant they would have had to score a TD and then get the ball back two more times in order to have a chance to win the game. At 4th and 5 on the other guys’ side of the field with that score, I am going for the first down. If I don’t get it, I will lose the game; if I make it, I will still probably lose the game. But, I am not punting…

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14. This was the 3rd loss in a row for the Lions; this was the Bears’ first win of the year. Neither team is any good. Brian Hoyer threw for 302 yards and 2 TDs; that speaks to the Lions’ defense. All of the Lions’ points here came on special teams (2 field goals, a punt return and a 2-point conversion); that speaks to the Lions’ offense.

The Skins beat the Browns 31-20. Surely, you have seen the “phantom fumble recovery” awarded to the Skins in the second half of this game. It was the officiating blunder of the year and here is how the NFL sought to explain it to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com:

“The on-field ruling was a fumble, recovered by Washington. It was confirmed as a fumble in instant replay without the need to stop the game. As to the recovery, several different angles were looked at, but with nothing definitive shown, there was no need to stop the game because the on-field ruling that awarded possession to Washington would have stood.”

The fact that a Cleveland Brown was holding the ball aloft in his hand as the officials peered into the pile – where there was no football – and decided that it was “Washington ball” had no impact or standing in the decision on the field or in the decision to describe how such a blunder might have occurred. Let me summarize it for you without any spin-doctoring:

The officials blew this call. They should all be named “Monica” after this game.

[Aside: I am not positive about this, but I believe that the referee in charge of this crew is the same one who got the coin toss call wrong in an overtime game involving the Steelers 6 or 7 years ago.]

The NFL – protecting the integrity of the game no doubt – chose not to censure those officials because the game relative to the spread was still well in doubt at the time of the botched call.

The Skins took a 14-0 lead here. The Browns rallied and led 20-17 in the second half and then the Browns morphed into THE BROWNS. They turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions in the second half leading to 14 points and the 11-point margin of defeat.

The Raiders traveled across 3 time zones and beat the Ravens 28-27 in Baltimore. The game was sort of slow early on; at the end of 3 quarters the score was 14-12 in favor of the Raiders. Then the 4th quarter exploded. Michael Crabtree and Derek Carr hooked up for 3 TDs in the game including the game winner. Here are some observations from that game:

The Cowboys beat the Niners 24-17; it really wasn’t that close. The Niners scored TDs on both of their first two possessions; after that the offense was pretty much AWOL. The Cowboys’ rookies won this game for them. Dak Prescott threw for 245 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs while Ezekiel Elliott ran for 138 yards and another TD.

I told you how the Saints rallied to beat the Chargers 35-34 above. Moving on …

The Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 and it was not a game that was in doubt after the first 10 minutes of the first quarter. This was an old-fashioned butt-stomping. The Steelers did just about everything right from the start and the Chiefs did little if anything right from the start. At the end of the first quarter, the Steelers were in command 22-0. I may appear as if the Chiefs played more competitively after the first quarter if all you look at is the score; when you saw the game on TV, that was not the case. Le’Veon Bell returned from his suspension and ran for 144 yards; there was little evidence of any “rust” there.

A significant difference in the offensive philosophies of the Steelers and Chiefs was starkly evident in this game. The Chiefs run a “dink-and-dunk”/rely on run after the catch West Coast offense. That system works; I am not saying it does not. The Steelers run a vertical/throw the ball 35-yards down the field on a routine basis offense. That system also works; I am not saying it does not. On Sunday night, the Steelers’ offense was hitting on all 8 cylinders; the Chiefs’ offense was misfiring much of the time.

The Vikings dominated the Giants 24-10 on MNF last week. I mentioned above how Odell Beckham. Jr. virtually took himself out of the game with his loss of focus/poise during the game. His inability to get open had something to do with Eli Manning’s sub-standard performance of 25-43 for 261 yards in the game. Meanwhile, Sam Bradford gave a workmanlike performance and completed his 3rd full game at QB for the Vikings without committing any sort of turnover. Given the Vikes’ defense, that lack of turnovers is a huge plus for Bradford. Let me put the Vikes’ defense in 2016 in some sort of perspective here. Mike Zimmer arrived in Minnesota in 2014; he inherited a team with a defense that ranked 31st in the NFL in yards allowed and 32nd in the NFL in points allowed during the 2013 season. Just to clarify; those stats STINK. Here we are in 2016 and the Vikes’ defense is allowing 12.5 points per game and looks good enough to carry the team into the playoffs where anything can happen.

The Giants spent a lot of money on their defense in this off-season and for the first two games is certainly seemed as if those investments were going to pay off. Then the Giants gave 31 points to the Skins two weeks ago and gave 24 to the Vikes here. Perhaps, the Giants’ defense remains a work-in-progress…

The Games:

There are 4 teams on BYE Weeks this time around:

KC gets an extra week to forget about the drubbing they took last week.

New Orleans gets an extra week to practice on defense.

Seattle gets an extra week to get Russell Wilson healthy.

(Thurs Nite) Arizona – 3.5 at SF (43): Carson Palmer left Sunday’s game to enter the concussion protocol; this game will start 4 days after that event. He could not be cleared by the meidics and the team announced on Twitter that Palmer will not make the trip to SF. That means the Cards will have a QB tandem of Drew Stanton and Zac Dysert. As noted above, Palmer has not played well so far this season; nonetheless, he is the starting QB on that team for a reason and that reason is that he is a better QB in 2016 than Drew Stanton or Zac Dysert. The Niners also had a potential injury issue from last weekend. Linebacker, NaVarro Bowman, left the field with a leg injury and did not return. The line here tells me that the oddsmakers foresaw that Palmer would not play. That means a Drew Stanton/Blaine Gabbert game and that looks like a hot mess to me. I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the game to stay UNDER.

Houston at Minnesota – 6 (40): Brock Osweiler is still a work-in-progress and he is still prone to throwing the ball to the other team. The Vikes defense is most adept at taking the ball away from the other side and this is potentially an Achilles’ Heel for the Texans. The Vikes are giving up 12.5 points per game; Houston’s offense is certainly not scary good. I like the Vikes to win and cover here at home.

Tennessee at Miami – 3.5 (44): It was another close call this week, but this one here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. Neither team is any good. Both teams have offenses that scare no one. Let me give you some trends that will demonstrate that these teams are not very good:

I will prognosticate that neither offense will do much of anything in this game and so I will take the game to stay UNDER.

New England – 10 at Cleveland (47): I do not expect Tom Brady to be at peak form here – but I do not expect him to trip over his shoelaces either. The Pats stunk it up last week against the Bills and there are too many vets on that team to allow that sort of performance to show up 2 weeks in a row. I like the Pats to win and cover here – even on the road and laying double-digit points.

Jets at Pittsburgh – 7 (48): The Jets are up against it (see above); last week, the Steelers demonstrated that they laid an egg against the Eagles two weeks ago but that they were not going to lay eggs every week. Against the Seahawks last week, the Jets saw lots of free-running Seattle WRs in the secondary. The Seahawks’ WRs are good, but none of them are at the level of Antonio Brown. I think the Steelers will win and cover at home.

Washington at Baltimore – 3.5 (44.5): The Total Line opened at 47; it dropped quickly to 45 and has inched down from there. The Ravens are 3-1 but they are not blowing people out; their biggest margin of victory is 5 points (over the hapless Browns) and their loss last week was by a point. The Ravens played the Browns, Jags and Raiders in the last 3 games and could not demonstrate a consistent offense against that sort of opposition. The Skins’ defense is not great by any means, but it is not stumblebum awful either. I think the oddsmaker was closer to correct setting the Total Line at 47 to begin with; I like this game to go OVER.

Philly – 3 at Detroit (46): Is this the week that Carson Wentz demonstrates his “rookieness”? Is this the week that Matthew Stafford starts to play like a QB that has thrown for more than 5000 yards in a season? Is this the week the Eagles’ defense gives up more than 14 points in a game? Is this the week the Lions’ defense holds a winning opponent under 30 points? If you knew the answer to just about any one of those questions, this game would be an easy pick. The last time the Eagles played in Detroit was on a Thanksgiving Day and they simply stunk out the joint. I smell upset potential here so I’ll take the Lions plus the points.

Chicago at Indy – 4.5 (48): This game was briefly considered for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week but it finished third in that sweepstakes. The NFL Schedule Maven needs to explain why the Colts do not have a BYE week here having just played a game in London. Whatever… Neither team is any good but Andrew Luck is going to be the better QB on the field playing against a not-so-great defense. I’ll take the Colts – ignoring the jet-lag factor – to win and cover at home. Here is a trend that makes me feel comfy with that Mythical Pick:

So there …!

Atlanta at Denver – 6 (47): This is the best game of the week. The Falcons offense has been unreal for the last 3 games scoring 128 points in those 3 wins. Granted, two of the defenses they lit up – Raiders and Saints – are not among the elite defensive units. However, last week they torched the Panthers (see above) and the Panthers’ defense is pretty good. The Broncos’ defense is even better. In no way do I see the Falcons putting 40 points on the board here nor do I see Julio Jones catching 150 yards of passes – half of his output last week – against Aqib Talib in the secondary. However, Matt Ryan is hot and he is a veteran. The Broncos’ QB situation is in doubt until game time when we will find out if Trevor Siemian can go at all in the game. I think the line is fat; I’ll take the Falcons on the road plus the points.

Buffalo at LA – 2 (40): The key question here is a simple one:

After an emotional win against a division rival on the road last week, can the Bills fly 2500 miles or so and play a game without a big letdown?

Last week the Bills were clearly up to play the Pats. This is a non-conference road game after a long flight. So, how will they react? I think the Bills are human and will not play nearly as hard this week. Meanwhile, the Rams won a division game too last week and as noted above, the Rams play much better inside the NFC West than they do outside the division. Will Case Keenum be an efficient game manager here or will he implode? I will turn this game over to the Curmudgeon Central Coin Flip Protocol and the coin says to take the Rams and lay the points. Remember, these are Mythical Picks …

San Diego at Oakland – 3.5 (50): I think the Raiders are a much-improved team this year and that the Chargers are – – the Chargers. Before the year started when I was looking at the Raiders’ schedule with 3 “Eastern Games” (Saints, Titans, Ravens) in September, I thought that a 2-2 split was a reach for the team. Well, they came out of that at 3-1 and now can go home to take on the bottom-feeder in the AFC West. Yes, the Chargers have led in the 4th quarter of every game this year – including the three losses on their schedule (see above). But this is not a heavy line for the Raiders to carry. I like the Raiders at home to win and cover. By the way, here is an interesting stat for the Raiders in 2016:

In all 4 games despite their 3-1 record, the Raiders have been the team with less offense than their opponent. Last week for example, the Raiders won the game by 1 point but lost the “Total Offense battle” by 151 yards.

Cincy – 1.5 at Dallas (45): The spread for this game opened with Dallas as a 1-point favorite but it has flipped favorites as the week progressed. The Bengals’ defense is better than what the Cowboys have faced so far this year (Giants, Skins, Bears, Niners). By the same token, the Cowboys can run the ball and control the pace of the game better than teams the Bengals have faced so far this year – the Dolphins for example last week. I expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a good game and I expect AJ Green to give the Cowboys’ secondary fits. I’ll take the Cowboys at home plus the points.

(Sun Nite) Giants at Green Bay – 7 (48): I think the Packers are the better team. The Packers are at home. The Giants are playing on a short week (Monday to Sunday) and had to travel to this game. The Packers had their BYE Week last week. I’ll take the Packers to win and cover at home.

(Mon Nite) Tampa at Carolina (no lines): This game was the runner-up for the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. There are no lines here because we do not yet know who will play QB for the Panthers or if Thomas Davis can play. Jameis Winston can be brilliant and/or he can be an interception waiting to happen. This will not be an artistic game. I obviously cannot make a pick on a game where there are no lines but here is what I think will happen:

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………