NFL PreSeason Analysis – Post Mortem

Bum Phillips was the head coach of the Houston Oilers and in addition to coaching success, he was known for his quick wit and his responses to questions.  He always took his wife with him on road trips and when a reporter asked him why he did that, Bum Phillips said, “She’s too ugly to kiss goodbye.”  I mention that not to demean that attractiveness of Phillips’ wife but to present an omen of “ugly” today.  The plan is for me to go back to August 2025 and dig up my predictions for what was then the upcoming NFL season and present them for examination.  I fear it will be as ugly as a pimple on prom night.

Back in August, I broke my NFL predictions into 3 parts.

• Part One was “Coaches on a Hot Seat”.  Here is a link to that rant.
• Part Two was a synoptic view of the NFL upcoming season.  Here is a link to that rant.
• Part Three predicted the regular season records for all 32 NFL teams.  Here is a link to that rant.

Instead of simply naming six of seven coaches that I thought might get fired during or after the 2025 NFL season, I divided the 32 coaches up into 4 general categories.  Here is the aftermath:

• I had 10 coaches on a list I labeled “No Way They Get Fired”.  Well, two of them got fired – – John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.  I am still surprised that those actions were taken.
• I had 7 coaches on a list I labeled “First Year on the Job” coaches and I figured all of them would be in safe jobs.  Pete Carroll’s job was one-and-done with the Raiders.  For the record, here is what I said about Carroll in Las Vegas:
  • • “Even Mark Davis is not dumb enough to fire someone of Carroll’s stature after one season on the job.  The Raiders were a significantly flawed roster last year; if Carroll can make the team into a “break-even proposition” this year he would be a first-class hero.”
• I had 7 coaches on a list I labeled “Don’t Expect Vulnerability Here But I Would Not Be Shocked Either”.   Raheem Morris was on that list; I thought he would be safe unless the Falcons record cratered; it did not and he did not survive.  Mike Tomlin was on that list too.  Here is what I said about Tomlin back then:
  • • “No, I have not ingested any hallucinogens today.  Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ organization are bedrock stability in the NFL structure and Mike Tomlin’s teams have never had a losing season over the last 18 seasons.  Looking at that record of success, one is probably surprised to learn that the Steelers last won a playoff game in 2016 and that the Steelers are 3-9 in the playoffs since the year they won the Super Bowl.”
• I had 8 coaches on a list I labeled “Coaches On A Hot Seat”.  Out of the eight coaches on the list, six were fired and the two that survived – – Shane Steichen and Zac Taylor are highly likely to be carried over to the same sort of list next August.

The firings of John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott were huge misses for me; even if I were rewriting that rant today, I might miss that sort of “postdiction”.  Regarding the Raiders and Pete Carroll, all I can say is that I probably underestimated the stupidity of Mark Davis.  And technically, Mike Tomlin was not fired by the Steelers; he “stepped down”.  I will not try to hide behind that labeling to claim I was correct back in August, but I did sense the issues that caused some in the Steelers’ fanbase to push for Tomlin’s departure.

In the synoptic view of the upcoming NFL season, the predictions were not as black-and-white as were predictions for coaches who would be fired or for the final records of all 32 teams.  Some of the comments therein, however, can be viewed as judgments as to how the season should unfold.

• I said 2025 would be an acid test for the Giants.  It was; their coach did not make it to Thanksgiving.  Moreover, I wondered:
  • • “Now imagine if you will the agita that would prevail in the Giants’ fanbase if Daniel Jones shows up in Indy and produces a Pro Bowl season that leads the Colts to the playoffs.  There might not be enough Pepto Bismol east of the Mississippi to cure that burning sensation…”
• I thought the Dolphins’ signing of Tua Tagovailoa to a nine-figure deal was risky.  It was and still is.
• I thought the Bills, Lions and Bengals were being overrated by pundits back in August. Many had the Bills as the favorites for the AFC Super Bowl slot; same for the Lions in the NFC.
• I thought the Cowboys and the Chargers were being underrated.  The Cowboys were not; the Chargers performed as well in 2025 as they had in 2024.
• I did not foresee the Pats going worst-to-first in their division last year.  Same goes for the Bears and the Panthers.  In my defense, I did call the Pats and the Bears to be significantly improved in 2025 and here is what I said about the Panthers:
  • • “The Panthers could be an interesting “Worst-To First” candidate if they find a way to shore up their defense which gave up 31.4 points per game in 2024.”
• I said that no team would go “first-to-worst” in 2025 – – and that was the case.  I said that the Chiefs, Eagles and Lions would regress in 2025 but not to the bottom of their divisions.

The synoptic view “predictions” were OK; looking back I could not find any monumental insights that I can point to positively nor can I find glaring omissions.  It was a fun way to think about the league and the upcoming season.  Last year was the first time I did anything like that; I will probably do it again in August – – Lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

And then of course, I exposed myself to significant ridicule by trying to predict the exact regular season record for every team in the NFL.  You think I would have learned by now to avoid such future embarrassment, but I seem to be addicted to that undertaking.  There are certainly worse addictions; the only damage done to me by these predictions is to my self-esteem.

I’ll start in the AFC West.  I said the Composite Division Record would be 40-28-0.  It was only 34-34-0.

• Chargers 12-5-0.  They finished 11-6-0.  I had them winning the division and they finished second.
• Chiefs 11-6-0.  I said they would regress and suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome”.  They were 15-2-0 in 2024 and did indeed regress all the way down to 6-11-0.  I had the Chiefs in the playoffs; they were not there.
• Broncos 10-7-0:  They finished 14-3-0 and won the division.
• Raiders 7-10-0.  They finished 3-14-0 and looked every bit as bad as that record might indicate.

            For the AFC South, I said the Composite Division Record would be a meager 31-37-0. It was 36-32-0.

• Texans 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0 and they won their last 9 games in a row.
• Colts 8-9-0.  They finished exactly 8-9-0 but did so in a most unusual way by losing their last 7 games in a row after Daniel Jones was injured.
• Jags 8-9-0.  They finished 13-4-0, won the division and made the playoffs.  And they achieved their playoff status by winning their last 8 games in a row.
• Titans 6-11-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  I said there the Titans needed to start well of they might have a coaching change in their BYE Week in Week 10.  That coaching change came earlier than that.

            In the AFC North, I had the Composite Division Record set at 34-34-0.  It was 29-39-0.

• Ravens 11-6-0.  They finished 8-9-0 and missed the playoffs.  Lamar Jackson’s injury status contributed to that “underachievement” but so did the Ravens’ miserable defense that gave up 23.5 points per game.
• Bengals 10-7-0.  They finished 6-11-0.  Joe Burrow could only play in 8 games in 2025; that did not benefit the Bengals’ fortunes even a little bit.
• Steelers 8-9-0.  They finished 10-7-0 and won the division on the final day of the season.
• Browns 5-12-0.  They finished exactly 5-12-0.

And in the AFC East, I had the Composite Division record set at 32-36-0.  It was 36-32-0.

• Bills 11-6-0.  They finished 12-5-0, which was not good enough to win the division.
• Dolphins 8-9-0.  They finished 7-10-0.
• Pats 7-10-0.  They finished 14-3-0 – – won the division and will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  I said they would improve and I said “…I expect Mike Vrabel to field a different sort of team in New England from what fans saw last season.”  However, I did not expect the “difference” and the “improvement” to be that dramatic.
• Jets 6-11-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  In mid-season they traded away their two best defenders to set up for a major restocking of the roster with draft picks come April; the Jets draft #2 overall and have lots of picks stored away.

            In the NFC, I’ll start with the NFC West where I had the Composite Division Record at 36-32-0.  It was 41-27-0.  [Aside: Get set for some belly-laughs when you see these predictions.]

• Cards 10-7-0.  They finished 3-14-0.  Yes, I actually thought they would win the division …
• Rams 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0.  I “marked them down” because in August it was not clear if Matthew Stafford’s back would allow him to play much in 2025.  And then he played at an “MVP-level”.
• Niners 9-8-0.  They finished 12-5-0.  They made the playoffs and won a first-round game there.
• Seahawks 8-9-0.  They finished 14-3-0; they won their last 7 games in a row and will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

            Next up is the NFC South.  I set the Composite Division Record there at 27-41-0.  It was 30-38-0.

• Bucs 10-7-0.  They finished 8-9-0 and missed the playoffs on tiebreakers.
• Falcons 8-9-0.  They finished exactly 8-9-0 but it took a final four-game winning streak to achieve that level of mediocrity.
• Panthers 6-11-0.  They finished 8-9-0.  That got them into the playoffs as the division champs despite that losing record.
• Saints 3-14-0.  They finished 6-11-0.

In the NFC North, I thought the Composite Division Record would be 35-33-0.  It was 38-29-1.

• Packers 10-7-0.  They finished 9-7-1.  I thought that would give the Packers the division title; it did not.
• Lions 10-7-0.  They finished 9-8-0.  I had the Lions in the playoffs as a wildcard team; they did not make the playoffs.
• Vikes 8-9-0.  They finished 9-8-0.
• Bears 7-10-0.  They finished 11-6-0; they won the division; they made the playoffs and they went “worst-to-first” in the division.

Last, in the NFC East, I had the Composite Division Record as 36-32-0.  It was 27-30-1.

• Eagles 12-5-0. They finished 11-6-0.  That was good enough for them to win the division.
• Commanders 10-7-0.  They finished 5-12-0.  I predicted a regression from 2024, but I did not count on Jayden Daniels missing 9 games for the season.
• Cowboys 8-9-0.  They finished 7-9-1.
• Giants 4-13-0.  They finished exactly at 4-13-0.

            Looking at this overall, the categorization of the coaches was good; the two major misses were not things that many others would have predicted in August 2025.  I would give that set of predictions an “A-minus”.

For the synoptic view of the 2025 season, I would call it more of a success than a failure.  From an academic standpoint, let me give myself a “B”.

            About the prediction of exact records for the 32 NFL teams, let me go easy on myself and not rate those as a complete and abject failure.  I’ll give myself a “D-minus” which is a passing grade meaning I can move on to the next level which will be similar predictions of exact records next August.  Why not?

Finally, I am not really masochistic at heart, but I have always liked this line about masochists from Steven Wright:

“When an evil masochist dies, does he go to Hell, or would Heaven be a better punishment?”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………