Back in the days of the Roman Empire, Fridays were Dies Veneris – or Days of Venus, the goddess of love. Possibly, that is because the Romans had not invented football yet; thus, they could not have experienced a Football Friday. It’s no wonder that the Empire fell …
There were no picks in the “Betting Bundle” but there were two Money Line Parlays; so, let me clear the stats on that front:
- Spreads and Totals: 0-0
- Season to Date: 35-40-2
And …
- Money Line Parlays: 0-2 Loss = $200
- Season to Date: 17-23 Profit = $657
College Football Commentary:
Before commenting on last night’s CFP action, I want to consider something a bit more generic about the CFP. For a reason that I do not understand – – partly because I am similarly afflicted – – college football fans are very intolerant of early round lopsided games in the tournament. And as the complaining reaches a crescendo, the knee jerk solution to that offensive situation is to exclude teams outside the Power Four and/or to increase the number of teams invited to the tournament. By now – – when half of the teams that will play for the national championship has been decided – – those cries have died down to the point that the issue might be considered less emotionally.
I too am not nearly as entertained by some of the early round CFP: games as I would be if they were more competitive, but when I think about the general “solutions” offered to the problem, I am not sure that they would cure the problem.
- Add more teams: This “solution” would do two things; it would offer more games in the early rounds, and it would seriously impact all the other bowl games by removing the few teams that might be an attraction for those games. If the “added teams” come from the Power Four, that will assure that some fourth-place teams from one or more of the conferences will be in the CFP and almost assuredly, those teams have already lost to the top teams from that conference. So, is that going to kick it up a notch? [Hat Tip: Emeril Lagasse].
- Exclude G-5 Teams: This “solution” runs the risk of the CFP being sued for monopolistic practices and whether you believe it to be behaving in that way or not, facing that sort of legal jeopardy is not going to be attractive to anyone involved with the CFP. Maybe you could come up with a structure whereby the G-5 schools get a percentage of the revenue generated by the CFP even without participating such that the G-5 would agree to the deal. However, I think the willingness of the power brokers in the Power Four conferences and in the CFP hierarchy would be sketchy at best.
As I was ruminating on this situation, an analogy came to mind that makes me wonder why fans are as intolerant of “CFP mismatches” as they are. The best analogy to the CFP that I can come up with is March Madness.
- Both are intercollegiate competitions
- Both crown national champions
- Both attract large TV audiences
- Both generate sizeable revenues
And the early round blowouts in March Madness brackets are usually shrugged off as “business as usual” in the tournament. When a team like UConn or Kentucky or Duke wallops “Are You Kidding Me A&M” by 45 points in a first-round game, the only “complaints” that seem to arise are from those who took UConn/Kentucky/Duke and laid 47 points. So, what is the difference? Why is there no hue and cry to make sure that “Are You Kidding Me A&M” and any team that resembles “Are You Kidding Me A&M” never darkens another annual bracket?
There is, regarding March Madness, a similarity in a suggestion to “add more teams”; some have suggested expanding March Madness to 96 teams which I think is outrageous. And once again, if there is “expansion” along with the exclusion of more Mid-Majors”, legal peril could arise.
My resolution here is pragmatic. The CFP will eventually expand to 16 teams; that will add revenue (always a welcome result), and it will obviate the debate on “rust or rest” that faces the top-seeded teams which have gone 1-7 in their first appearances in the CFP as it exists now. Since I have every expectation that will come to pass, the only question is the makeup of the 16-team field and once again I think March Madness provides a model.
- Empanel a Selection Committee – – people with a strong résumé and a very thick skin.
- Empower them to name the participants and to seed them.
- Then embrace:
What the Selection Committee has put together, let no man put asunder…
Or as Yul Brynner said in the role of Ramses II in The Ten Commandments:
“So let it be written; so, let it be done.”
The Miami Hurricanes secured a spot in the CFP Final Game last night coming from behind and scoring the winning TD with 18 seconds left on the clock. Hopefully, that presence in the Final Game will silence all those who were dead certain that Miami simply did not belong in the field in the first place. Moreover, it should serve as an example for folks who think that conference champions should be the teams to represent their conferences regardless of any other consideration; recall that this year’s ACC Champion was Duke, which posted a regular season record of 7-5.
Tonight’s CFP Game:
Oregon vs Indiana – 3.5 (48.5): These teams met in the regular season; on Oct 11, the Hoosiers beat the Ducks in Oregon by a score of 30-20. In that game, the score was tied at 13 apiece in the middle of the third quarter and tied again 20-20 early in the fourth quarter. Given the subsequent performances by both teams, there is every reason to expect a good game tonight. Both teams are well coached; the two QBs are considered to be “Top 5 Picks” in the upcoming NFL Draft; both teams play hard every play. I think Indiana can establish “Big-Ten Dominance” in football this season by winning the CFP; it would be the third year in a row that the big Ten produced the CFP champ AND it would be the third different big Ten team to do so. I like Indiana here to win and cover; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
NFL Commentary:
I guess the biggest NFL news today is that no other head coach was fired overnight. So, let me comment on the NFL coaching situation as it stands now – – recognizing that it will certainly change once teams are eliminated from the layoffs and their assistants can be openly interviewed and contacted.
- Ravens: This must be a desirable position for several reasons; two-time MVP, Lamar Jackson, is there; Derrick Henry is there; Mark Andrews is there. All those players are on offense, so this team needs a defensive guy to round things out. Both Brian Flores and Robert Saleh had excellent season-long results as defensive coordinators. Another “plus “attached to the Ravens’ job is the history of a patient ownership. Since the Ravens came into existence 30 years ago, the team has had only 3 head coaches – – Ted Marchibroda, Brian Billick and John Harbaugh.
- Cards: I guess the best thing this job has to offer is that it should not be difficult to show some improvement early on in one’s tenure in Arizona. The roster did not mesh last year; the QB situation is up in the air; the team invested in defense in the last offseason and that defense was mediocre at best. Coaches only get two shots at being a head coach in the NFL; after two firings, most are labeled as “damaged goods”. I would be surprised to see a “second-time coach” take this job with this roster and with marginal ownership on top.
- Browns: Everything I said about the Cards applies to the Browns – – except the Browns’ defense is very good as opposed to the Cards’ defense. The ownership situation here is less than ideal to say the least and the QB situation would fill up two years of drama on an afternoon soap opera. Remember, Deshaun Watson is still on the payroll and is rehabbing …
- Raiders: Bad roster; bad owner; the specter of Tom Brady hovering around the team; playing in a tough division. Other than those factors, this is a great job …
- Giants: I think the team is at an inflection point; they appear poised to become much better than their double-digit losses in the previous season would indicate. My first thought was that Kevin Stefanski would be the ideal candidate for this job, but I wonder if his low-key/ cerebral demeanor will play well with the NYC media. A mismatch there can generate those “dreaded distractions”, don’t you know…
- Dolphins: Who knows what that franchise will do next? The first thing an aspirant for the job must figure out is the value of Tua Tagovailoa and then assess his availability due to injuries. The defense is good – – not great – – and De’Von Achane is a quality running back. Best assessment here is that this is neither the best nor the worst job out there this year…
- Titans: This is another franchise where the next move is likely to be the next surprise. According to a report at CBSSports.com, the Titans have requested interviews with 14 head coaching candidates.
Glass half full = The Front Office wants to gather as much input from as many candidates as possible to set the course for the future of the team based on a synthesis of that input,
Glass half empty = The Front Office has no clue what it needs or wants and will – at some point – tire of trying to sort among the candidates and draw a name out of a hat.
Here are comments from some of last week’s games:
Giants 34 Cowboys 17: The Cowboys played their starters for the first half only; the Giants played their starters longer than that. Conclusion:
- The Giants starters are better than the Cowboys’ reserves
Vikes 16 Packers 3: The Packers played Clayton Tune at QB in this game, and he had net passing yardage of minus-7 yards for the game. On Tuesday of this week, he was released by the team from its roster. Just in case you need an explanation of how important some of the games last week were …
Texans 38 Colts 30: Riley Leonard acquitted himself quite well in this game throwing for 270 yards and 2 TDs against the Texans’ defense.
Raiders 14 Chiefs 12: In this game, the two teams COMBINED to produce 372 yards of Total Offense. The four QBs that produced that meager total were:
- Shane Buechele and Chris Oladokun (Chiefs)
- Aidan O’Connell and Kenny Pickett (Raiders)
Commanders 24 Eagles 17: The Eagles played almost no starters on offense or on defense for the entire game; the Commanders played the starters. See the Cowboys/Giants game above for a parallel assessment …
Steelers 26 Ravens 24: When that last second field goal went “wide right”, I wonder if somewhere Scott Norwood felt a twinge in his leg …
Games This Week:
The Seahawks and the Broncos get a week off as the overall #1 seeds in the conference playoffs. Both teams are as healthy as can be expected after an 18-game regular season schedule; so, they are not necessarily looking at this time off as a “rehab opportunity”. The other 12 teams in the playoffs need to face quality opponents this week as they press on for a shot at the Super Bowl on Feb 8.
(Sat. 4:30 PM ET) Rams – 10.5 at Panthers (46): These teams met in Carolina on November 30th in the regular season; that was not all that long ago. In that game, the Panthers won outright by a score of 31-28. In that game, the Rams closed as 10-point favorites – – and lost outright. So, why is there nothing different in the spread for this game? An important element of the Panthers’ winning six weeks ago was that the Panthers’ defense turned the ball over for the offense three times. Can that unit replicate that performance?
(Sat. 8:00 PM ET) Packers – 2 at Bears (44.5): This will be the third meeting for these two teams this season; that does not happen all that often. I think the key to this game is efficacy of the Bears’ running attack. If the Bears can run the ball and keep the Packers’ offense off the field a bit, that will provide some respite for the Bears’ defense. Moreover, it will keep Caleb Williams from feeling as if he has to do everything by himself for the offense.
(Sun. 1:00 PM ET) Bills – 2 at Jags (51.5): I know that Josh Allen is always capable of emerging from a phone booth (remember those) in a Superman outfit and taking over any NFL game. Having said that, I like the Jags in this game because there has been “something missing” or “something discordant” about the Bills when I have watched them this season. And the Bills’ run defense is just plain “not good”. Give me the Jags plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sun. 4:30 PM ET) Niners at Eagles – 5 (44): Let me get to the Bottom Line here:
- Niners’ defense has a ton of injuries to key players.
- Eagles’ offense has sputtered for most of the year.
It would not be a huge surprise to see the Eagles’ defense keep the Niners in check; the question is how the Eagle’s offense might fare against the Niners’ defense. The spread for this game opened at 3 points so that line movement means there has been a significant imbalance of money on the Eagles from earlier this week. I think this line is fat; give me the Niners plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sun. 8:15 PM ET) Chargers at Pats – 3.5 (46): Drake Maye has never been in an NFL Playoff game; in fact, he was never in a college football playoff game. This is terra incognita for him. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has been in two NFL Playoff games and has lost both of them. This is a long journey for the Chargers from sunny SoCal to cold and possibly snowy New England.
(Mon. 8:15 PM ET) Texans – 3 at Steelers (38): Points will be at a premium in this game; defense is the calling card for both teams. The spread here bounced up to 4 points a couple of times earlier this week, but it has been stable at this level since Wednesday evening. Normally when I expect a low-scoring game, I like to take the points; but this game has too many moving parts:
- Aaron Rodgers has loads of playoff experience; CJ Stroud does not
- The Steelers get DK Metcalf back in this game; they had to play without him for the last two weeks.
- Can the Steelers’ OL handle the Texans’ pass rush? Aaron Rodgers is not nearly as mobile as he used to be.
I’ll just sit back with a nice glass of wine and enjoy the last game of Wildcard weekend.
So, let me review the “Betting Bundle”:
- Indiana – 3.5 over Oregon
- Jags +2 against Bills
- Niners +5 against Eagles
And just for fun here is a Money Line Parlay:
- Jags @ +105
- Pats @ minus-180
- Indiana @ minus-165 $100 wager to win $412
Finally, Jake Gaither was the longtime head football coach at Florida A&M; here is how he described his ideal defensive player:
“He should be agile, mobile and hostile.”
Sounds like what we might be seeing in the Texans/Steelers game on Monday night.
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………