Happy New Year to all. Having returned from a road trip late yesterday, there was not nearly enough time for a full-fledged Football Friday today; so, here is a truncated version. There were no entries in the “Betting Bundle” from Christmas Eve but to keep everything on the up-and-up here are the Season Totals as of now:
- Spreads and Totals: 35-40-2
- Money Line Parlays: 17-21 Profit = $857
College Football Commentary:
The CFP is in full swing and the surprises keep on coming. I often refer here to the importance of “strength of schedule” even though measuring such a thing is imprecise at best. However, the loss by Ohio St. to Miami indicated to me that Ohio St. had not played a difficult schedule in 2025 and when they played other top teams (Indiana and Miami for example), the Buckeyes were not nearly as good as their record would have led you to believe.
I was impressed by the Texas Tech defense notwithstanding the score of that game against Oregon. The Red Raiders’ defense was on the field just about all game long. I am not sure if the Oregon defense showed out to be a whole lot better than its reputation or if the Tech offense was simply inept. If you want to take one side of that discussion, I will be happy to take the other.
Alabama was simply over-matched against Indiana. Long before the game got totally out of hand, it was obvious that “Bama would need abundant good fortune to prevail in that contest. Alabama rushed for a total of 23 yards in the game (on 16 attempts) and was outgained by 217 yards for the day. Those are the sorts of stats you expect to see with Alabama on top when they take on one of their cupcake opponents in early September.
Ole Miss trailed Georgia 21-12 at the half and 24-19 as the start of the fourth quarter but the Rebels absolutely dominated the final 15 minutes of the game producing an ending that probably will never be repeated in college football games. Getting from the point where there were 5 seconds left in the game until the final whistle may have taken as long as 20 minutes in real time. That ending should be remembered alongside the Stanford Band marching onto the field thinking they had defeated Cal only to have Cal run though the band formation to score the winning TD.
There will be a fresh face as college football’s national champion this year:
- Indiana has been playing college football since 1887 with zero national championships.
- Oregon has been playing college football since 1894 with zero national championships.
- Miami last won the national championship in 2001.
- Ole Miss was the national champion in 1962.
In case you want to know how the oddsmakers see the CFP playing out, here are the odds as of this morning regarding the ultimate champion for the 2025 college football season:
- Indiana odds range from +125 to +135
- Oregon odds range from +300 to +320
- Miami odds range from +300 to +335
- Ole Miss odds range from +550 to +600
Indeed, Indiana is now a significant favorite to win the national championship in football this season …
For those of you who think Lane Kiffin is nothing more than a money-grubbing carpetbagger, you need to root for Ole Miss to win it all while Coach Kiffin is moving into Baton Rouge and diversifying his retirement portfolio from that locale. Just a thought …
Oregon and Indiana will meet in the next round of the CFP; those teams played each other in the regular season in Oregon and Indiana won by 10 points that day. Notwithstanding that history, the opening spread for that game sees Indiana as 4-point favorites.
NFL Commentary:
It did not have to turn out this way, but the NFL schedule makers managed to construct a season where there are 3 meaningful games on tap for Week 18.
- When the Panthers and Bucs lost last week, they set up a winner-take-all game for the NFC South championship this week.
- When the Ravens and Steelers lost last week, they set up a winner-take-all game for the AFC North championship this week.
- And the Niners/Seahawks game this week will determine playoff seeding for those two teams guaranteed as playoff teams.
As we wind down to the final parts of the regular season, I think the voting for Coach of the Year will be dispersed among 4 candidates for the honor. In alphabetical order I think these are the contenders:
- Liam Coen – Jags
- Ben Johnson – Bears
- Kyle Shanahan – Niners
- Mike Vrabel – Pats
Take your pick there; any one of those four would be deserving of the award.
There were five games from last week with interesting outcomes:
Jags 23 Colts 17: Do you realize that is the sixth loss in a row for the Colts? They started out 8-2 for the year and could wind up with a losing record if they drop this week’s game against the Texans who are favored by double-digits.
Saints 34 Titans 26: That is the sixth win for the Saints this year; after the way they looked at the start of the season before benching Spencer Rattler in favor of Tyler Shough, that is a surprising win total.
Seahawks 27 Panthers 10: The result is not shocking, but the Seahawks held the Panthers to 139 yards Total Offense and only 40 net yards passing.
Eagles 13 Bills 12: The Eagles only gained 17 yards of offense in the second half of the game and won because of their defense. I could not find stats about teams winning games with less offense in a half, but I did run across this stat from a regular season NFL game that was “comparable”:
- In 2002, the Texans beat the Steelers 24-6.
- In that game, the Texans mustered a total of 47 yards on offense.
- The Texans won that game because they recorded 3 TDs on defense that day.
Giants 34 Raiders 10: Looks as if the Raiders will be “on the clock” for the NFL Draft in April 2026.
Games This Week:
(Sat 4:00PM ET) Panthers at Bucs – 2 (44): The Bucs have lost 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 8 games – – and they are favored here? The winner goes to the playoffs meaning this game has some faux significance.
(Sat 8:15PM ET) Seahawks – 1 at Niners (47.5): The winner gets home field advantage and a BYE Week in the playoffs; the loser should be the 6th seed. For me, the real question is more cynical:
- Will Sam Darnold play like “Early-Season Sam” or like last year’s “WTF Sam” in the late season?
Packers at Vikes – 7.5 (37): Not a lot of meaning to this game other than it is a division game – – as are all the other games this week.
Colts at Texans – 10 (39): Colts will play Riley Leonard at QB against a really good Texans’ defense – – and the Texans still have a chance to win the AFC South title with a win here and a Jags loss to the Titans
Dolphins at Pats – 11 (45.5): Mathematically, the Pats can still get the overall #1 seed in the playoffs. The Dolphins probably can’t wait to get home where it is warm.
Chiefs – 5 at Raiders (36): It would delicious if the Raiders rise up and win this game costing them the overall #1 pick in the draft next year. They have worked so hard to put themselves in this position having lost their last 10 games in a row.
Lions at Bears – 3 (50.5): I look at that Total Line and wonder why it is so high – – and then I realize that Dan Campbell will be calling an aggressive game against a mediocre Bears’ defense and that Ben Johnson will be looking to stick it to his old boss on the other sideline …
Jets at Bills – 8 (37): High temp for the day is forecast to be 26 degrees. On a scale of zero to one hundred, my interest level in this game does not come up to 26 degrees.
(Sun Nite) Ravens – 3.5 at Steelers (41): This is winner take all; loser goes home and shovels out the driveway. The Ravens are the single most underachieving team in the NFL this year and the Steelers are a team that has put together a winning record with smoke and mirrors. It should be an entertaining game…
Browns at Bengals – 7.5 (45): The important aspect of this game has to do with Myles Garrett. If he gets a sack in the game, he will set a new NFL season record for sacks. If he were to do that in the first defensive series of the game, I would turn it off and do something much more important – – like rearranging my sock drawer.
Cowboys – 3.5 at Giants (50): Best I can say about this game is that the starters are likely to play more than in some other games.
Commanders at Eagles – 3.5 (39): Commanders’ coach, Dan Quinn, said this week that tanking is not in the team’s vocabulary and that they will play to win despite draft implications. Sounds good – – unless the Commanders lose by 4 TDs while playing to win… The Eagles need some sort of spark for their offense heading into the playoffs and the Commanders’ defense may be just provide said spark.
Saints at Falcons – 3.5 (44): Yes, this is a rivalry game. No, I don’t care what the outcome is.
Cards at Rams – 7 (46.5): The Cards’ season went in the tank early; the Rams seem to be fading late in the season. It will be interesting to see what the Cards do with Kyler Murray in this offseason.
Chargers at Broncos – 13 (38): Justin Herbert will get a week off. It might have been an interesting game with him as a participant…
Titans at Jags – 13 (48): The Jags can still wind up with the overall #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs with a win here and losses by both the Pats and the Broncos. Hey, it’s not easy coming up with something to say about this game other than I am glad it won’t be shown in my viewing area.
I will forego a “Betting Bundle” this week because none of the meaningful games have lines that I particularly like – – and I will not pick from among the meaningless ones. However, here are two Money Line Parlays for fun:
- Texans @ minus-500
- Bears @ minus-160
- Rams @ minus-330 $100 wager to win $154
And …
- Bengals @ minus-320
- Bills @ minus-360
- Jags @ minus-550
- Cowboys @ minus-180 $100 wager to win $208
Finally, this distillation of football from Mike Tomlin:
“It’s football. The ball snaps, you kick butt or you get your butt kicked.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………