Time to dive into another Football Friday. As always, I begin with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Spreads and Totals: 2-0-0
- Season to Date: 31-40-2
And …
- Money Line Parlays: 2-1 Profit = $291
- Season to Date: 16-20 Profit = $825
[Aside: I mentioned last week that it was our annual football weekend with Philly being the “venue substitution” for Las Vegas. After two days of watching and wagering on English soccer, college basketball, Army/Navy, the NFL and probably something else, I came out ahead by a total of $6.86. It will be difficult to pay attention to the advice in the adage, “Don’t spend it all in one place.”]
College Football Commentary:
Michigan will conduct an internal “rigorous investigation” of the Athletic Department and pledges to “act swiftly” should there be any additional instances of impropriety there. The university hired an outside law firm to do a complete audit/investigation of the Athletic Department in the wake of the Sherrone Moore embarrassment. I can understand the university’s motivation to be sure there is no other shoe about to drop, but the “Moore Miasma” looks to me to be a contained problem now that Moore has been fired and faces three criminal charges including a felony. At first glance, the only outstanding question for that situation is the continued employment status of the person with whom Moore was dallying.
So, why such an open-ended audit/investigation? Stay tuned …
Just to the south of Ann Arbor in Athens County Ohio, there seems to be a problem akin to the one at Michigan. Head football coach, Brian Smith, was placed on leave a couple of weeks ago and has now been “fired for cause” citing “serious professional misconduct”. According to reports, the university presented Smith with an “intent to terminate letter” that included instances of extramarital affairs including one with a grad student and consuming alcohol while on the job.
Coach Smith has been at Ohio for only one year and the Bobcats did well in 2025 posting a record of 8-4. Ohio will play UNLV next week in the Cure Bowl but without Coach Smith.
They say that bad things happen in threes. If that adage is in play here, we may expect one more exposé of salacious behavior in the college football world sometime soon.
Games of Interest This Week:
The first round of the CFP kicks off this weekend, so there are some interesting games on tap.
(Fri Nite) Alabama at Oklahoma – 1 (41): These two teams met a month ago in Tuscaloosa and the Sooners came away with a 2-point win. The Oklahoma defense shut down the Alabama running game that day and should be able to repeat that accomplishment here; ‘Bama could only muster minus-3 yards rushing against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game in the intervening weeks of the season. What surprises me a bit here is how low the Total Line is; I don’t expect a lot of fireworks in the game, but the Total Line here implies that one team is unlikely to score 20 points and that line has been rising during the week having been as low as 39.5 points on Wednesday. Interesting …
(Sat Noon) Miami at Texas A&M – 3 (48): Both teams are solid; however, if Miami loses, there will be a hue and cry led by Notre Dame alums that Miami should not have been invited to the CFP in place of the Fighting Irish. Statistically, these teams are balanced; the spread in the game seems to reflect the home field advantage for the Aggies in College Station, TX.
(Sat PM) Tulane at Ole Miss – 17.5 (57.5): Here is another “rematch” this weekend; Ole Miss trounced Tulane 45-10 back in September and here they are again. Ole Miss has a different coach this time around, but I think the talent disparity here will prevail. Is the coaching turmoil sufficient to have the spread this time equal to half of the margin of victory back in September? I think not; give me the Rebels to win and cover; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Sat Nite) James Madison at Oregon – 21 (45.5): This game is “The Dukes” versus “The Ducks”. Look at these statistical comparisons:
- Scoring Offense: JMU = 37.3 points per game Oregon = 38.3
- Scoring Defense: JMU = 15.8 points per game Oregon = 14.8
If you look at those numbers and the spread at 21 points, you would have to scratch your head. Clearly, the difference here is the Oregon performance against clearly superior competition as compared to James Madison. The Dukes only played one game against a team from a Power 4 conference and that game provided JMU with its only loss of the season; it was back in September and Louisville beat JMU by 14 points. Oregon is a better team than Louisville; just saying… I like this game to go OVER; put that in the ‘Betting Bundle”.
NFL Commentary:
The Arizona Cardinals are 3-11-0 this year and buried in that record is the fact that the Cards have lost 7 games by a total of 19 points. Not only is that difficult to do; those games represent a swing between a record of 10-4-0 and the current 3-11-0. There are three interesting questions involving the Cards:
- Will Coach Gannon survive this season? Gannon’s contract runs through the end of the 2027 season with a team option for 2028.
- Given that it seems as if the Cards have given up on Kyler Murray, does he have any trade value around the league?
- If indeed the Cards “move on” from Kyler Murray, would they try to draft a QB or look into the free agent market place for a backup to Jacoby Brissett?
The Cards are not the only team that may be having second thoughts about their starting QB. It was announced earlier this week that the Dolphins will bench Tua Tagovailoa as a healthy scratch this week – – and presumably for the rest of the season. The Dolphins are eliminated from playoff possibilities and will turn their attention to Quinn Ewers as the QB to see what if anything they have in his presence. I guess the frustration with Tua as the Dolphins’ QB is the fact that he leads the NFL in INTs for 2025 having thrown 15 of them in 14 games.
- How about Kyler Murray for Tua Tagovailoa even up …???
The Denver Broncos are 12-2-0 this year which is a gaudy record indeed. However, it may be even more spectacular than it would appear:
- The Broncos have won 11 games in a row.
- Here are the two losses on their tab this year:
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- September 14 the Broncos lost to the Colts by 1 point.
- September 21 the Broncos lost to the Chargers by 3 points.
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- The Broncos are “4-points shy” of holding a 14-0-0 record in 2025.
Here is a “fun fact” I ran across:
- The NFL Playoffs in 2025 will be the first NFL Playoffs since 1998 without either Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and/or Patrick Mahomes taking part.
Having mentioned Tom Brady, it reminded me to check out the pre-season futures bet for wins by the New England Pats this season. The Futures Market was set at 7.5 wins by the Pats in 2025 which was significantly above the 4 wins posted by the Pats in 2024. As of this morning the Pats’ record is 11-3-0 meaning they blew the doors off that estimated 7.5 wins. Moreover, the Pats have done this in an unusual way:
- Pats’ record at home = 5-3-0
- Pats’ record on the road = 6-0-0
The Tampa Bay Bucs need to right the ship; they managed to lose two consecutive division games to the Saints and then to the Falcons even though the Falcons committed 19 penalties in that game. The Bucs are still on top of the NFC South thanks to the largesse of the Panthers last weekend losing to the Saints (see below). Nonetheless, the pirate ship is taking on water…
Here are comments on games from last weekend:
Texans 40 Cards 20: The Texans continued their dominant play on defense and this week, the Texans’ offense showed up too. CJ Stroud put up this stat line:
- 22 of 29 for 260 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs
The Cards’ rushing game was limited to 72 yards on 21 carries.
Ravens 24 Bengals 0: Shutting out the Bengals is impressive given the offensive players on the Bengals’ roster. The Bengals managed to gain 298 yards on offense but only got to the Red Zone once in the game.
Eagles 31 Raiders 0: Shutouts are uncommon in the NFL, and this week produced two of them. The Raiders were simply overmatched here. Compare these stats from the game:
- Total Offense: Eagles = 387 yards Raiders = 75 yards
- Possession: Eagles = 39:25 Raiders = 20:35
- Offensive plays : Eagles = 66 Raiders = 42
- Red Zone Visits : Eagles = 5 Raiders = 0
Bills 35 Pats 31: The Pats led this game 21-0 early in the second quarter and then the Bills scored TDs on their next 5 possessions. The two teams combined to produce 414 yards rushing in the game. The Bills have won their last two games (over the Bengals and the Pats) despite giving up 65 points in those two victories. Is that sustainable…?
Bears 31 Browns 3: This was a total domination by the Bears as shown by these pairs of stats:
- Total Offense: Bears = 361 yards Browns = 192 yards
- QB Stat Lines: Williams:17 of 28 for 242 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs
- Sanders: 18 of 35 for 177 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs
Chargers 16 Chiefs 13: And with this loss, the Chiefs are eliminated from the AFC playoffs in 2025. If that is not bad enough, Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL late in the game; the first report was that he was “exploring his surgical options”. Various reports cite the recovery period from ACL surgery between 8 and 11 months meaning that Mahomes will likely miss much if not all of Training Camp next season. The Chiefs just could not run the ball in this game, gaining only 49 yards on 21 carries.
Jags 48 Jets 20: The Jags have a strong defense which has carried the team to the top of the AFC South and the Jags’ offense made its presence felt in this game gaining 438 yards on offense. The Jags control their path to the playoffs with 3 games to play. There were six touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence today, 5 passing and another running.
Commanders 29 Giants 21: The Giants outgained the Commanders 384 yards to 340 yards, but the Commanders returned a punt for a TD which was pretty much the scoreboard difference in the game.
Saints 20 Panthers 17: The Panthers had this game in hand leading 17-7 with 2 minutes left in the third quarter. Then in the 4th quarter, the Panthers could not get out of their own way and lost the game in a fashion that made you think they deserved to lose. The Saints are not a good team, but they outgained the Panthers by 57 yards here.
Rams 41 Lions 34: The Lions’ offense was strong here; the Lions’ defense was AWOL giving up 519 yards of offense to the Rams. The Rams had the Overall #1 seed in the NFC until their loss to the Seahawks last night.
Broncos 34 Packers 26: Unlike the Chiefs, this loss does not mathematically eliminate the Packers from the playoffs. Like the Chiefs, the Packers lost an All-Pro level player to an ACL tear in the 4th quarter when Micah Parsons injured his knee in a non-contact movement. The Broncos are now the overall #1 seed in the AFC with upcoming opponents”
- Jags at home
- At the Chiefs
- Chargers at home
Seahawks 18 Colts 16: Philip Rivers did not embarrass himself or the Colts in this game. The Seahawks won on a last second field goal (their 6th of the day) despite scoring zero TDs and while outgaining the Colts by 99 yards in the game.
Niners 37 Titans 24: This was a comfortable win of the Niners, but the Titans’ offense seems to be maturing week by week. The Titans had 306 yards on offense here against a decent – – not great – – Niners’ defensive team.
Vikes 34 Cowboys 26: The Cowboys’ defense turned in a bed-wetting performance here – – particularly in the second half. With 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter, the Cowboys led 23-17; here are the Vikes drives from that point on:
- 8 plays 73 yards TD
- 5 plays 51 yards TD
- 10 plays 26 yards Field Goal
- Total time consumed = 11:02
The Cowboys are not eliminated from the playoffs, but they must win out and the Eagles must lose out for the Cowboys to win the NFC East and get into the playoffs; they are eliminated from any wildcard participation.
Games This Week:
The Seahawks rallied in OT to beat the Rams last night putting the Seahawks atop the NFC West and putting the possibility of the overall #1 seed in the NFC Playoffs totally in control of the Seahawks. Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and 3 TDs in the game – – and it was not quite enough.
There is a polarization of importance in the games this week. Some have the potential to secure a playoff slot for the winner; one will have the winner in sole possession of first place in their division. At the other end of the spectrum, there are games where both teams stink and others where the “bad team” looks to be seriously over-matched.
(Sat 5:00 PM) Eagles – 7 at Commanders (44.5): The Eagles’ defense pitched a shutout last week against an anemic Raiders’ offense. The Commanders will sit Jayden Daniels here and go with Marcus Mariota at QB, but still the Commanders’ offense will be more of a challenge than the Raiders were last week. The Eagles have a simple task at hand:
- Win and they are in – – the playoffs that is.
If the Eagles win here, they are the NFC East champions and will be in the playoffs. It will also be the first time in the last 21 seasons that an NFC East champion has gone back-to-back for division titles.
(Sat 8:20 PM) Packers at Bears – 2 (46.5): Is this the Game of the Week? I thought long and hard about that. The Packers beat the Bears two weeks ago in Green Bay; the winner here will be in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. If the Packers are to prevail, they will need to figure out how to play without Micah Parsons on the fly against a good offensive team; the Bears average 26.1 points per game. I am tempted to take the Bears here because of Parson’ absence, but I will resist that temptation and wait to see how the Packers’ defense adjusts to his not being there.
Bills – 10.5 at Browns (41.5): The Bills’ defense has not been good the last two weeks despite winning both games (see above). The Browns’ offense should not pose nearly so great a threat. However, the Browns’ defense should make Josh Allen work for his yards and points here.
Jets at Saints – 5.5 (40): Notwithstanding the Saints’ two-game winning streak, this is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. The Jets are going with Brady Cook over Justin Fields at QB and that choice seems to me to be akin to choosing to be hung as opposed to being shot. The Jets and the Saints are bad teams with nothing to play for over the rest of 2025.
Vikes – 2.5 at Giants (43.5): The Giants own next year’s overall #1 draft pick which they could screw up here with a victory. Do not put that sort of failure past the Giants. I have noted here before the wildly different potential performance levels from the Vikes’ JJ McCarthy. Imagine if Jaxson Dart comes down with an ailment that keeps him on the sidelines and the Giants put Jameis Winston in at QB. Talk about uncertainty …
(Sun Nite) Pats at Ravens – 3 (48): This is my Game of the Week by a whisker over the Bears/Packers game above. The Pats need a win to ensure that they will stay ahead of the Bills who are heavy favorites this week. The Ravens trail the Steelers by a game in the AFC North and it would appear that only the division champion will make the AFC Playoffs; ergo, this is a big game for the Ravens as well.
Bucs – 3 at Panthers (46): Even though this game will determine the leader in the NFC South, this never got serious attention as the Game of the Week because neither of these teams is playing well at the moment and because both teams have .500 records so far in 2025. The Bucs have lost 5 of their last 6 games – – and the Panthers have not been able to capture the lead in the division.
Chiefs – 3 at Titans (48): With Patrick Mahomes on the shelf, the Chiefs will start Gardner Minshew at QB. Behind Minshew, the Chiefs have a QB on their practice squad named Chris Oladokun who is a second-year player from South Dakota St.
Chargers at Cowboys – 2 (49.5): This is a must-win for the Cowboys if they are to keep their faint playoff hopes afloat. The Chargers are two games behind the Broncos in the AFC West with three to play; if they harbor any thoughts of catching the Broncos, they cannot lose here.
Falcons – 3 at Cards (48): This game drew some attention as the Dog-Breath Game of the week; these two teams are either the unluckiest teams in the NFL, or they are two of the worst teams in the NFL. You make the call …
Jags at Broncos – 3.5 (47): This game drew some thought as the Game of the Week because it is between two division leaders. The Jags hold a one game lead over the Texans and that race looks as if it will go down to the wire. The Broncos do not need the win nearly as much as the Jags do, but they are at home where they are 7-0-0 in 2025. Both teams bring good defenses to the field which got me thinking about taking the game to stay UNDER, but both Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix have been very productive recently; so, I put that notion to rest.
Steelers at Lions – 7 (52): The Steelers lead their division by a game over the Ravens, and those two teams will meet in Week 18 in Pittsburgh in what could be the Game of the Week then. Meanwhile the Lions are hanging on by a thread and not being able to afford a loss here. Injuries to the Lions’ defense have been disastrous this year.
Raiders at Texans – 14 (38): The reason the Jags need to win at the Broncos is that the Texans should cruise to a win here and that victory coupled with a Jags’ loss would create a tie in the AFC South. The Raiders were shut out last week by the Eagles (see above) and the Texans’ defense is perfectly capable of doing the same thing this week. This game should be a blowout by the Texans – – but I am not going to play with a 2 TD spread in an NFL game.
Bengals – 4 at Dolphins (47): This is a meaningless game; neither team is any good; the Bengals’ cannot stop anyone; the Dolphins will be starting Quinn Ewers as their QB. I think Joe Burrow will have his way with the Dolphins’ defense and that Quinn Ewers will exploit the poverty of the Bengals’ defense. Give me the OVER in this game; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Mon Nite) Niners – 6 at Colts (46.5): In the NFC West, the race between the Rams and the Seahawks has gotten lots of attention. That seems to have rendered the Niners’ season as an afterthought. Actually, the Niners are 10-4-0 in 2025 and could tie the Rams for second place in the NFC West with a win here. In fact, if the Niners win this game, they will be assured of a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Colts have lost 4 in a row, and their promising season is on the verge of collapse as they trail the Jags by two games and the Texans by one game in the AFC South; a loss here could be disastrous. I just don’t think Philip Rivers showed enough in last week’s comeback game to scare the Niners’ defensive mavens, and I think the Niners can score on the Colts’ defense. I like the Niners to win and cover here; put it in the ‘Betting Bundle”.
So, let me review this week’s “Betting Bundle”:
- Ole Miss – 17.5 over Tulane
- JMU/Oregon OVER 45.5
- Bengals/Dolphins OVER 47
- Niners – 6 over Colts
And just for fun, here are two Money Line Parlays:
- Vikes @ minus-145
- Niners @ minus-270 $100 wager to win $132
And …
- Broncos @ minus-180
- Eagles @ minus-320
- Bills @ minus-550 $100 wager to win 141
Finally, a word from Norm Van Brocklin:
“If I ever needed a brain transplant, I’d choose a sports-writer because I’d want a brain that had never been used.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports ………
I think Green Bay at Chicago is GOTW. This will allegedly be the 212th meeting of two storied NFL franchises. Winner will be in first place. And it will feature two teams from the NFC North.