Friday rolled around quickly this week – – or so it seems. So, I have fastened my seatbelt and am ready to launch another Football Friday. I’ll start as usual with a review of last week’s “Betting Bundle”.
- Spreads and Totals: 3-2-0
- Season to Date: 24-37-2
And …
- Money Line Parlays: 1-1 Profit = $175
- Season to Date: 13-18 Profit = $402
Here is the final regular season result for Georgia Tech – – my “sleeper team” identified back in August before the season began.
Georgia 19 Georgia Tech 9: The Tech defense showed up here and held the Bulldogs to only 70 yards passing in the game. Unfortunately, the Georgia defense showed up too and held Tech to only 9 points in the game. Tech finishes the season with a 9-3 record; Georgia is 11-1. Tech will not play in the ACC Championship Game this week nor will it play in the CFP; however, they should get a nice bowl invitation and should be happy with a 9-win season.
College Football Commentary:
I mentioned the ACC Championship Game above; it bears a larger mention here. The game will involve Virginia (10-2 overall and 7-1 in conference games – – sort of) and not too many folks would have a problem with the Cavaliers participating there. Some nitpickers might point out that a loss to NC State (also in the ACC) did not count against the Cavs’ conference record because the game took place “outside the schedule range” for conference games. Don’t get me started on professional rule makers…!
The other team in that Championship game is Duke. The Blue Devils finished with a conference record of 6-2 – – and so did four other ACC teams including my “sleeper team” and Miami who is the highest ranked ACC team by the CFP Selectors. All 5 of those ACC teams have the same conference record but here are the overall records to consider:
- Miami 10-2
- Georgia Tech 9-3
- Pittsburgh 8-4
- SMU 8-4
- Duke 7-5
If you are wondering how that came to be the pairing for the ACC Championship Game let me just say that the “rule makers” in the ACC – – the same ones that did not count that loss by Virginia to NC State because of the date the game took place – – also came up with a set of rules for tiebreakers at the end of the season.
I am not a “Duke Hater”; in fact, #2 son is a Duke alum. Notwithstanding that family tie to Duke, those tiebreaking rules make no damned sense. Period.
Considering the CFP situation – – which of course can be modified significantly by the results of the conference championship games this weekend – – I want to offer a way to look at the selection process.
- If a coach or an AD or a University President feels the need to make a statement intended for national attention about the righteousness of that particular school’s worthiness for a CFP slot, then that team does not really belong in the tournament.
- Supreme Court Justice, Potter Stewart, famously said that he could not precisely define hard-core pornography, but that “I know it when I see it.” Same goes for teams that truly belong in the CFP; they don’t need PR campaigns; they just belong there.
[Aside: Here is Justice Stewart’s full statement on the matter: “I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [‘hard‑core pornography’], and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that.”]
Over in the SEC, the Championship Game pairs Alabama and Georgia via a different set of tiebreakers in use by that conference. The matchup is strange – – but not nearly as outrageous as the one in the ACC – – so take a look:
- Georgia 7-1 in conference 11-1 overall
- Ole Miss 7-1 in conference 11-1 overall
- Texas A&M 7-1 in conference 11-1 overall
- Alabama 7-1 in conference 10-2 overall
One more confusing conference championship matchup will take place in the Mountain West with UNLV playing Boise St. for the title. Here is how the leaders in that conference finished the season:
- UNLV 6-2 in conference 10-2 overall
- New Mexico 6-2 in conference 9-3 overall
- San Diego St 6-2 in conference 9-3 overall
- Boise St 6-2 in conference 8-4 overall
The Big-10 and the Big-12 have clear-cut participants in their Championship Game. Indiana and Ohio State are the only two unbeaten teams in the country and they will square off probably to determine the overall #1 seed in the CFP. BYU and Texas Tech have the best conference records and the best overall records in the Big-12 and will play for the championship there.
Looking at the conference standings in general for this season popped an ominous thought into my head regarding the future of college football.
- With the expansion of conferences to their bloated sizes of today and with the demonstrated potential for congestion at the top of the standings to cause confusion/consternation, might one of the conferences think about having a 4-team Conference Tournament to determine its champion instead of a single Championship Game?
- Do not dismiss this too quickly; there is money to be made in such a situation.
Here are comments about some of last week’s games starting in the SEC:
Ole Miss 38 Miss St. 19: Cannot see any way that Ole Miss misses out on a CFP invitation with an 11-1 record.
Texas 27 Texas A&M 17: One of the three unbeaten teams going into last week’s games bit the dust here. Somehow, that loss will keep the Aggies out of the SEC Championship Game. Will that win by the Longhorns be enough to get Texas with an overall 9-3 record a place in the CFP?
Oklahoma 17 LSU 13: The Sooners will be hoping for a CFP invitation with their 10-2 record; LSU will prefer not to recall this season’s record of 7-5.
Vandy 45 Tennessee 24: Vandy finishes the year at 10-2 while Tennessee finishes at 8-4. This is the first time in school history Vandy has double-digit wins in a football season which is a big deal considering that Vandy first began playing intercollegiate football in 1890.
- Quick Quiz: Who was the President of the United States in 1890?
- Answer Below
Alabama 27 Auburn 20: The win gives “Bama a final record of 10-2 and participation in the SEC Championship Game – – and the win prevents rival Auburn from becoming bowl-eligible. Happy times in Tuscaloosa!
And in the Big-12 …
K-State 24 Colorado 14: The Buffaloes finish at 3-9 overall and at 1-8 in conference games. Coach Prime needs to work the Transfer Portal more effectively this year.
Iowa St. 20 Oklahoma St. 13: The Cowboys finish at 1-11. Oklahoma St. has not won a conference game or a game against a Division 1-A opponent since 2023.
Texas Tech 49 West Virginia 0: Tech finishes the regular season at 11-1.
- Tech had 572 yards on offense.
- West Virginia had 180 yards.
- ‘Nuff said.
BYU 41 UCF 21: BYU also finishes regular season at 11-1. Their single loss was to Texas Tech by 22 points in early November. This week is an opportunity for the Cougars to avenge that loss.
As for action in the Big-10:
Iowa 40 Nebraska 16: Iowa scored 40 points in one game?
USC 29 UCLA 10: There was a time when this rivalry game was also nationally interesting. Not this year …
Oregon 26 Washington 14: Oregon finishes 11-1 and that loss was by 10 points to undefeated Indiana. The Huskies are 8-4 and should get a decent bowl invitation.
Penn St. 40 Rutgers 36: Penn St. became bowl eligible with this win; Rutgers failed to become bowl-eligible with this loss.
Ohio St. 27 Michigan 9: The Buckeyes finish at 12-0. The officiating in this game was less competent than the players in this game.
In ACC action:
Miami 38 Pitt 7: Will that be enough for a CFP invitation to the Hurricanes? Miami has 2 losses – – to Louisville and SMU by a total of 9 points. In terms of “signature wins”, Miami beat Notre Dame by a field goal back in September.
BC 34 Syracuse 12: That is only the second win of the year for BC. Syracuse finishes at 3-9.
Duke 49 Wake Forest 32: Both teams will go to bowl games this year. Duke will play in the ACC Championship Game.
Virginia 27 Va Tech 7: A big rivalry win for the Cavaliers and a final record of 10-2 overall. Next up is the ACC Championship Game.
Cal 38 SMU 35: If SMU had won here, they would have been in the ACC Championship Game. SMU led 35-32 with 2 minutes left in the game – – but could not hold on.
NC State 42 UNC 19: The “Bill Belichick Experience” was not a positive experience in Chapel Hill this year.
In the Mountain West …
UNLV 42 Nevada 17: UNLV quietly finished the season with a 10-2 record.
Boise St. 25 Utah St. 24: Boise St. barely eked out a win here, but it was all it needed to assure a berth in the MWC title game.
New Mexico 23 San Diego St. 17: The Aztecs lost 2 of their last 3 games when I looked as if they had a stranglehold on the conference standings. That’s why you play the games …
And in games of interest to me …
North Texas 52 Temple 25: North Texas will play for the AAC Championship next week. North Texas has a freshman RB who has been on fire this season; in this game, Caleb Hawkins ran for 186 yards and 4 TDs.
James Madison 59 Coastal Carolina 10: Too bad JMU and North Texas cannot play off for that CFP slot assigned to teams outside the Power-4.
Delaware 61 UTEP 31: Delaware finishes at 6-6, which is a very good record for a team in its first season at the Division 1-A level. Congratulations to Delaware.
La Tech 42 Missouri St. 20: Even with a loss here, Missouri St. is bowl-eligible in their first year as a Division 1-A team with a 7-5 record. Congratulations to Missouri St.
Middle Tenn 31 New Mexico St. 24: This is the third win of the season for Middle Tennessee St. and it saves them from the SHOE Tournament.
Florida 40 Florida St. 21: Both teams finish under .500 for the season and will not be involved in any bowl games.
Washington St. 32 Oregon St. 8: Washington St. finishes the season at 6-6 and will represent the “PAC-2” in a bowl game somewhere.
- Quick Quiz Answer: Benjamin Harrison was President of the United States in 1890
Now with the regular season at an end, it is time to award the Brothel Defense Award for 2025. Drum roll please:
- UMass wins the award giving up 38.6 points per game in 2025.
The Brothel Defense Award came into being in 2020; so, this is the 6th time it has been given to a college football team. Of those 6 times, UMass has been the “winner” of the award 3 times now (2021, 2023 and now again in 2025). Amazing …
Next on the agenda is the seeding for the SHOE Tournament. Remember the format here; it is an eight-team field. The teams play one another, and the losing team must play on until there is an ultimate loser which is the SHOE Team of the season. [SHOE is an acronym for Steaming Heap Of Excrement.]
- #1 Seed: UMass 0-12
- #2 Seed: Charlotte 1-11
- #3 Seed: Georgia St. 1-11
- #4 Seed: Sam Houston 2-10
- #5 Seed Colorado St. 2-10
- #6 Seed BC 2-10
- #7 Seed: Purdue 2-10
- #8 Seed: Oregon St. 2-10
Let the games begin …
NCAA Games of Interest this Week:
UNLV at Boise St. – 4.5 (58): Boise St. is leaving the Mountain West for the reconstituted PAC-12; UNLV would probably like inherit the mantle as the big dog in the conference. A win here would be a way to stake such a claim.
BYU at Texas Tech – 12.5 (50.5): On November 8th, Tech beat BYU 29-7 on this same field… Both teams have strong defenses and neither team is an offensive juggernaut. I like this game to stay UNDER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Georgia – 2.5 at Alabama (48): On September 27th, “Bama beat Georgia 24-21 at Georgia … This is the fifth time these two teams have met in the SEC Championship Game and Alabama has won all the previous encounters. If you believe in trends … I am going to buck that trend and take Georgia to win and cover even in Tuscaloosa; put that in the ‘Betting Bundle”.
Duke at Virginia – 4.5 (56.5): On November 15th, Virginia beat Duke 34-17 at Duke … In that game, the Cavs led by 4 TDs and took their foot off the gas. If Duke stays in the game into the third quarter, that will mean the game is going to light up the scoreboard. I think Duke can do that and so I’ll take this game to go OVER; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Indiana at Ohio St. – 3.5 (48.5): Meaning no disrespect to any of the other conference Championship games, this is the College Game of the Week. The winner will be the overall #1 seed in the CFP. Ohio St. brings a defense to this game which has not given up more than 16 points in any game this season. Indiana has posted some big numbers against lesser competition, but I wonder if they can get to 20 on this defense. I like Ohio St. to win and cover, and I like the game to stay UNDER; put those two selections in the “Betting Bundle”.
NFL Commentary:
There is still a month’s worth of NFL football in the 2025 regular season, and you will need to pay close attention because playoff standings and playoff races are likely to change week by week. Particularly in the NFC:
- In the NFC Central the Bears lead the Packers by half a game
- In the NFC South, the Bucs lead the Panthers by half a game
- In the NFC West, the Rams/Seahawks are tied with the Niners half a game behind.
By comparison, the AFC is buttoned down – – but not really:
- In the AFC North the Ravens and Steelers are tied for the lead.
- In the AFC South, the Colts/Jags are tied for the lead with the Texans 1 game behind.
In the race to the bottom, five teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs this season:
- Cards 3-9-0
- Giants 2-11-0
- Raiders 2-10-0
- Titans 1-11-0
- Saints 2-10-0
[Aside: Is it a “race to the bottom” or a “freefall to the bottom? Just wondering …]
Two years ago, the Eagles ran off to a 10-1 record and then the wheels came off as they lost 5 of their last 6 regular season games and made an early playoff exit. Eagles’ fans will not be happy about this, but I get the same sort of feeling about this year’s team; there is no energy and there is no emotion surrounding the 2025 team. As of today, the Eagles are 8-4-0; they are a short favorite on the road this week against the Chargers and should be about a touchdown favorite next week against the Raiders. They have two games against the Commanders – – usually hard-fought affairs – – and a game against the Bills. Theoretically, the Eagles could go 13-4-0 for the season; I will not be shocked if they go 10-7-0.
Here are comments on some of last week’s games:
Pats 33 Giants 15: The symmetry of the universe was conserved in this matchup. The Pats were 10-2-0 going in and the Giants were 2-10-0 going in. The mirror image of those two team records was preserved in this game.
Bucs 20 Cards 17: How many more one-score games can the Cards lose this year? If I have counted correctly, they have lost seven one-score games so far with five games left to play.
Jets 27 Falcons 24: The Jets are 3-9-0 which is not a good record by any measure – – but even after they traded away two of their best defensive players – – Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner – – the team defense keeps them in most games. Can it be that the Jets are poised to ”emerge” as a solid football organization/team? The Falcons just stink…
Texans 20 Colts 16: Do not sleep on the Texans. If that offense can just find ways not to blow games into oblivion, this team can get it done. The Texans’ defense is absolutely for real.
Jags 25 Titans 3: The Jags aspire to be a playoff team. Playoff teams dispatch inferior teams handily – – just as the Jags did here.
Panthers 31 Rams 28: This result made the races in the AFC South and in the NFC West much more interesting.
Niners 26 Browns 8: Shedeur Sanders got a win in his first NFL start two weeks ago. The message to him in this game was “Welcome to the NFL, Shedeur!”
Dolphins 21 Saints 17: This was the third straight win for the Dolphins. The Saints have the worst point differential in the NFC at minus-113 points.
Seahawks 26 Vikes 0: Here is the Bottom Line:
- The Vikes have a serious QB problem. JJ McCarthy is nowhere near ready to be a starting QB in the NFL and his backups are UFL-level QBs.
- The Vikes won 14 regular season games last year. The Vikes will struggle to win even half of that number in 2025.
Bills 26 Steelers 7: The Steelers too have a major QB problem. Aaron Rodgers has broken bones in his left hand/arm that limits the sorts of things he can do on handoffs and pitchouts. Mason Rudolph cannot be counted on to make the offense ambulatory let alone efficient and effective.
Broncos 27 Commanders 26: The football gods have smiled on the Broncos from the outset this season. The Commanders are experiencing what it was like to be an opponent of the Commanders in 2024 when the Commanders pulled rabbits out of hats to win games week after week.
Chargers 31 Raiders 14: The Chargers keep their playoff hopes alive with wins like this. The Raiders are simply on a lower level of existence for now.
Bears 24 Eagles 15: If someone described the Eagles’ offense in this game as “somnambulant”, that would be heaping undeserved praise on that unit. The Bears now have the overall #1 spot in the NFC and I certainly did not have that on my 2025 NFL BINGO Card back in August 2025.
Packers 31 Lions 24: The Lions’ record in 2025 is not nearly what the Lions’ record was in 2024. The reason is that the Lions’ OL is not nearly what the Lions’ OL was in 2024 in terms of offensive dominance.
Cowboys 31 Chiefs 28: To be sure of a playoff slot in the AFC, the Chiefs need to win out – – and that is not likely to happen. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won 3 games in a row and much of the reason for that is their upgraded defense.
Bengals 32 Ravens 14: The Ravens look almost as out-of-sync/ discombobulated as do the Eagles. They should win the AFC North but keep finding ways to thwart that outcome. Oh, and just for the record, the Bengals are not yet eliminated from the AFC playoffs as the division winner or as a wildcard.
NFL Games This Week:
This will be the final weekend with teams on BYE Weeks for the 2025 NFL season:
- Giants 2-11-0: Fans in NYC are probably coming up with scenarios where the Giants manage to lose while on a BYE Week.
- Niners 9-4-0: Despite injuries galore – – particularly on the defense – – the Niners continue to hang in the NFC West race where they trail the Rams and the Seahawks by only half a game.
- Panthers 7-6-0: The Panthers can do two things that winning football teams tend to do:
-
- They run the ball well
- They stop the run well.
-
- Pats 11-2-0: Undoubtedly, this is the biggest surprise team of the year; the Pats are likely to win their division and might be the overall #1 seed in the playoffs after winning exactly 4 games in 2024 and being outscored then by a total of 128 points.
In last night’s game, the Lions shredded the Cowboys’ defense and cruised to a two-touchdown win. That loss significantly damages the Cowboys’ momentum toward a playoff slot this season; the Cowboys had been playing well behind a much-improved defense – – until last night. Jahmyr Gibbs scored 3TDs and Jared Goff threw for more than 300 yards against that defense and made it look easy while doing it. That game was not a “playoff game” in the sense that the Cowboys can go home and plan for next season, but it was an important result for both teams.
Just a foreshadowing here; this will be the largest “Betting Bundle” of the season to date.
Commanders at Vikes – 2 (42.5): I thought about this as the Dog-Breath Game for just a moment. How can the Vikes be favored over another pro team after scoring zero TDs in the last 8 quarters? The Commanders are a hollow shell, but they are better than a JJ McCarthy led offense; the wrong team is favored here. I like the Commanders to win straight up here so I’ll take them plus the points; put that in the “Betting Bundle”.
Dolphins – 3.5 at Jets (41.5): This game also attracted some Dog-Breath thinking. I don’t know if the Dolphins’ 3 game win streak here is enough to save Coach Mike McDaniel’s job and I also doubt that a minor uptick in interest for either franchise here is materially important. Historically, the Dolphins do not play well in cold weather games; the forecast for the weekend in NYC is for temps around 40 degrees which is on the cusp of “cold weather”.
Titans at Browns – 3.5 (34): This one here is the Dog-Breath Game of the Week. I doubt that I need to explain that label any further. Just look at that Total Line …
Steelers at Ravens – 5.5 (43.5): The Steelers have been up and down all season; the Ravens likewise. What surprises me the most is the sloppiness of the Ravens; that is not the hallmark of John Harbaugh-coached teams. I think this will be a game of mistakes; the team that makes the fewest will win. Because I think that is the way the game will unfold, I chose not to call this the Game of the Week even though the two teams are tied for the lead in the AFC North. The Ravens stunk out the joint at home last week; are they going to do that two weeks in a row?
Seahawks – 7 at Falcons (44.5): The Falcons are a mess; the Seahawks can be very good or they can be mediocre. I think the Falcons’ offense will have significant difficulty moving the ball and scoring on the Seahawks’ defense – – even though this is a body-clock game for the Seahawks.
Colts – 1.5 at Jags (47): This was a candidate for Game of the Week; the two teams are tied atop the AFC South. Here are some stats to consider if you are thinking about a wager here:
- Colts have lost 3 of their last 4 games.
- Colts have not won in Jax since 2014. [Really!]
- Jags lead the NFL in rushing defense; Colts are 6th in the NFL in rushing offense
- Colts score 29.8 points per game; Jags allow 21.1 points per game.
Bears at Packers – 6.5 (44.5): This is the Game of the Week. The Bears have the best NFC record as of this morning and have won 5 in a row. The Packers are a half-game behind the Bears and have won 3 in a row. Hope this game is on in your viewing area; it should be a good one.
Saints at Bucs – 8.5 (42): The Bucs are in a race for a playoff spot; suffice it to say that the Saints have no similar motivation here.
Broncos – 7.5 at Raiders (40.5): The Broncos have a stranglehold on the AFC West race; the only “stranglehold” Raiders’ fans might be interested in would be one applied to the roster constructors for this year’s squad. The Broncos’ front seven on defense against the Raiders’ OL are a mismatch.
Rams – 7.5 at Cards (48): Here is yet another game between a team pushing for the playoffs and a team whose playoff hopes vanished about a month ago. As noted above, the Cards have lost 7 one-score games this year; I suspect this will be a two-score game or worse; give me the Rams to win and cover; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
Bengals at Bills – 5.5 (53.5): The Bengals are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, and the Bills have not played well for about a month now.
(Sun Nite) Texans at Chiefs – 3.5 (42): This could be the coup de grace for the Chiefs in 2025. A loss for the Texans would be similarly disastrous. I think the Texans are on a roll, so I’ll take them here plus the points; put it in the “Betting Bundle”.
(Mon Nite) Eagles – 2 at Chargers (41): On the assumption that the Broncos take care of business against the Raiders on Sunday, this game is important to the Chargers because they would trail those Broncos by 3 games with a loss here. This is a big game for the Eagles too as they try to find a way to rid themselves of a malaise that has settled over the team.
So, let me review this week’s eight-item “Betting Bundle”:
- Ohio St. – 3.5 over Indiana
- Ohio St./Indiana UNDER 48.5
- Georgia – 2.5 over Alabama
- BYU/Texas Tech UNDER 50.5
- Duke/Virginia OVER 57.5
- Commanders +2 against Vikes
- Rams – 7.5 over Cards
- Texans +3.5 against Chiefs
As if that were not enough, here are two Money Line Parlays:
- Browns @ minus-200
- Seahawks @ minus-330
- Rams @ minus-410 $100 wager to win $143
And …
- Texans @ +165
- Broncos @ minus-400 $100 wager to win $231
Finally, let’s hear from Bill Parcells:
“Never discount stupidity as being a factor, because it’s always in there somewhere.”
But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………