Predicting NFL Regular Season Records – 2025

Twice this week, I have offered general commentary on the upcoming NFL regular season and made some general prognostications.  Those two rants provide plenty of opportunities to embarrass myself when the post-mortem time comes around in early 2026.  Undaunted, I will now go deeper into the thicket of predicting the future by suggesting the final regular season record for each and every NFL squad.  I feel like the guy who just emerged from the steam room after a half hour of sweating out bodily toxins and is now poised over the cold plunge pool knowing what comes next …

So, let me lead off with the AFC West.  I think this is going to be the toughest division in the league this year and that is not meant to diminish the strength of other divisions; I just think there are not going to be a lot of walkovers in the division contests this year.  The AFC West teams will face the NFC East teams this year as part of the normal schedule rotation providing even more difficult games; the only “saving grace” from the schedule is that the West teams draw the AFC South teams as in conference rivals for 2025.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 40-28-0.

• Chargers – – 12-5-0:  That is correct; I am picking the Chargers to overthrow the 9-year hegemony of the Chiefs in the AFC West.  I think the weakness for the Chargers is at WR; Ladd McConkey is very good, and Mike Williams is acceptable as WRs – – but there is nothing else that looks scary on the depth chart.  The Chargers and Chiefs will open the season in Brazil this year and will then meet again in Week 15; the “Brazil Game” counts as a home game for the Chargers so a fast start matters.
• Chiefs – – 11-6-0:  I see the Chiefs “dropping off” in 2025 from their 15-2-0 record last year to a level that most teams can only aspire too.  The combination of “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” with what looks to me like a mediocre offensive line leads me to this prediction.  By the way, if you are a Chiefs hater, you might be unhappy with the Prime Time and Solo time broadcast slots afforded to the Chiefs:
  • Sao Paolo Game – Solo slot
  • Thanksgiving Game – – Solo slot
  • Christmas Game – – Solo slot
  • Thursday Night Football – – One time
  • Monday Night Football – – Two times
  • Sunday Night Football – – Three times
• Broncos – – 10-7-0:  The Broncos have the makings of a dominant defense and while Bo Nix is not as physically gifted as either Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert, he is a very underrated QB presence on the field.  The Broncos finished third in the AFC West last year and yet they had the best point differential in the division.
• Raiders – – 7-10-0:  After finishing 4-13-0 in 2024 and playing in what I think is the toughest division in the league, my prediction represents a significant change of fortune for the Raiders’ franchise.  Pete Carroll will be 74 years old this calendar year; he is not the “long-term solution” to the Raiders’ woes in recent years, but he is the sort of coach/leader who can stabilize matters and get things headed in the right direction.  Raiders’ fans need to hope that Mark Davis can secure a solid successor to Carroll a couple of years from now.  In the present, the Raiders’ fans can enjoy the stylings of Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty on offense and Maxx Crosby on defense.

Next up is the AFC South.  If someone were to ask me to summarize the AFC South in a single word, the word would be “ Meh!”  I don’t see the top teams from last year breaking out into the elite levels of the league and I see the bottom teams improving slightly to give the division race a closeness that will attract attention.  Other than that, …?  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 31-37-0.

• Texans – – 9-8-0:  Nico Collins has to stay healthy for 17 games this year and one of the rookies the Texans drafted at WR has to show that he can be a #2 WR.  In addition, the OL has to improve a lot from 2024; CJ Stroud was sacked 54 times last year.  Behind Stroud on the depth chart are:
  • Davis “General” Mills
  • Graham “Not Fred” Mertz
• DeMeco Ryans has changed the image of the Texans’ franchise from a laughingstock to solidarity.  But even that solid defense in Houston would not compensate for the loss of either Collins or Stroud.
• Colts – – 8-9-0:  The QB confusion continues in Indy; they are starting their eighth different QB in Week 1 for the eighth strait season.  The schedule is daunting with the AFC West and the NFC West on tap.  Maybe this record is too optimistic?
• Jags – – 8-9-0:  New Jags’ coach, Liam Coen, had a top-shelf season as the offensive coordinator with the Bucs last year.  The Bucs finished fourth in scoring in the NFL last year and finished third in Total Offense in the league.  If he brings that sort of offensive creativity to a team with Trevor Lawrence calling the shots, that could become a potent force in the division.  Again, the schedule is brutal, and it is not clear to me how the team will maximize the return for Travis Hunter.
• Titans – – 6-11-0:  I am not sold on Cam Ward as “the answer” at QB for the Titans but if he can avoid the brutally awful mistakes made by last year’s QBs, the team will improve.  Will it be enough to maintain some stability in the team?  The Titans have a BYE Week in Week 10; the team had better be 3-6-0 or better at that point or there might be coaching/Front Office upheaval in mid-stream.

From the mediocrity on display in the AFC South, let me move on to the AFC North where there are three tough teams and a weak-sister.  However, that weak-sister has a blue chip defense that can make things difficult for opponents.  This will be another close divisional race that will keep everyone’s attention through Week 18 when the Ravens/Steelers and the Bengals/Browns are on the schedule.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 34-34-0.

• Ravens – – 11-6-0:  The early schedule is difficult;
  • At Bills
  • Browns
  • Lions
  • At Chiefs
  • Texans
  • Rams
  • BYE WEEK
• Later the opponents are not quite as formidable in sequence, but the Ravens are on the road more late in the season.  Lost in the fact that Saquon Barkley ran for 2000+ yards in 2024 is the fact that Derrick Henry averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season – – and he’s back this year.
• Bengals – – 10-7-0:  Management came to its senses and recognized that the Bengals’ porous defense would not be improved by trading Trey Hendrickson away; he is now signed for 2025.  Also, the Bengals took DE, Shemar Stewart as their first pick in the Draft in April and eventually got him signed after a protracted struggle; maybe he can make the Bengals’ defense “acceptable” this year because it was not in 2024 when it gave up 28 points per game.
• Steelers – – 8-9-0:  Yes, I am predicting the first losing season for Mike Tomlin during his tenure in Pittsburgh.  I don’t think Aaron Rodgers has nearly enough offensive talent around him to allow him – – at age 41 – – to excel on the basis of his wits and guile.  The defense will be – – well – – “Steeler-like” meaning lots of close games.
• Browns – – 5-12-0:  The schedule-maker did the Browns no favors in the early part of the season.  The first 6 weeks are:
  • Bengals
  • At Ravens
  • Packers
  • At Lions
  • Vikes (Game is in London)
  • At Steelers
• After that, the Browns draw the Dolphins at the Pats and at the Jets who – – by comparison – – are less fearsome opponents.

Next  up will be the AFC East.  The fairy tale of the “Three Little Pigs” sort of applies here; the Bills are the “Big, Bad Wolf” and the other teams are in danger when in the presence of the “Big Bad Wolf”.  In the fairy tale, the Pigs find refuge in a brick house; I don’t know that I can spot a brick mason anywhere in the area who might “save their bacon” so to speak.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 32-36-0.

• Bills – – 11-6-0:  The schedule here is relatively soft; after facing the Ravens in Week 1, the Bills will next see a playoff team from last year in Week 9 (Chiefs).  If I had more confidence in the Bills’ defense, I would have them at 13 or 14 wins – – but I don’t have much confidence there.
• Dolphins – – 8-9-0:  The Dolphins have some offensive weapons when Tua Tagovailoa is upright and on his game.  That is how the team is going to win 8 games because the defense is nothing to write home about.
• Pats – — 7-10-0:  Patriots’ fans who yearn for a return to the team’s dynastic ways should take heart that 7 wins in 2025 would be a 75% increase over the win total in both 2023 and 2024.  In fact, the Pats were not favored in a single game last season; that is pretty close to rock bottom.  Just as I expect Pete Carroll to make a positive difference in Las Vegas, I expect Mike Vrabel to field a different sort of team in New England from what fans saw last season.  I like Drake Maye as a developing QB; I like the RBs; Hunter Henry is an acceptable TE; I wish the Pats had something more fearsome at WR than soon-to-be-32-years-old, Stefon Diggs.
• Jets – – 6-11-0:  Here is what I think will be interesting about the Jets’ season.  I think Aaron Glenn has the makings of a good head coach, but he may be in the wrong job at the wrong time.  He is a defensive minded coach; he played defense and he “earned his stripes’ as the Lions’ defensive coordinator over the past couple of seasons.  The Jets’ shortcomings are not on defense; while the defensive unit is not stellar, the team problems center on the offensive side of the ball.  Generally, defensive coordinators who elevate to head coaches do not elevate the team offense too much.

            Moving over to the NFC, will begin with the NFC West which, I think, will be a tough and a surprising division in 2025.  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 36-32-0

• Cards – – 10-7-0:  That’s right; I am predicting that the Western Division in both conferences will produce surprising champions this year.  The Cards won 8 games last year but that was double what they won in 2023; the momentum is there.  And if Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride continue their development, the Cards are going to be a tough out.  The final 6 weeks of the schedule will be a test of the team’s mettle:
  • At Bucs
  • Rams
  • At Texans
  • Falcons
  • At Bengals
  • At Rams
• Rams – – 9-8-0:  If Matthew Stafford’s back heals itself, the Rams could blow by this prediction in mid-December, but I am leery of the time it has taken for him to be able to “fully participate” in practices.  At age 37, a “re-injury” could be very problematic for the Rams.  Can the Rams import healing waters from Lourdes – – or would the imposed tariffs be too great?
• Niners – – 9-8-0:  The team is not starting the season in good health and that is rarely a good NFL omen.  The Niners face each of their three division opponents in the first 5 weeks of the schedule.  Early or not in the season, those will be important games.
• Seahawks – – 8-9-0:  This team is a huge enigma, and the core of the uncertainty is named Sam Darnold.  He was great in 2024; if he had played like that for all those years between his Draft year (2018) and now, he would be thought of as a likely Hall of Fame QB.  No one – except for his nuclear family – thinks of him in those terms now.  So, what flavor of the “Sam Darnold Experience” does he have on tap for us NFL watchers?  Can he lead them to 14 wins the same way he did with the Vikes last year  scoring 24 points per game?  Or will he revert to earlier times when he had home fans boo him off the field?

            Next up shall be the NFC South.  In college football, teams from the “South” tend to be among the best in the country.  In NFL football, the two South Divisions are the weak sisters in their conferences.  In science we have conservation laws – – mass, angular momentum, energy – – and maybe there is a football law involving the “Conservation of Excellence” which explains the imbalance of “South teams” in college and pro football?  Probably not …  I say the division cumulative record in 2025 will be 27-41-0.

• Bucs – – 10-7-0:  The Bucs averaged 29.5 points per game last year; that productivity earned their Offensive Coordinator a head coaching job this season.  So, can the Bucs do something like that again under different tutelage?  Another important variable here is the status of OT, Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Goodwin.  Both suffered injuries last season, and both spent all of Training Camp until this week on the Physically Unable to Perform List.  The Bucs need both of them in “healthy status” for the year.
• Falcons – – 8-9-0:  Someone in NFL HQs or at the networks must think a lot more highly about the Falcons than I do.  The Falcons will be on Sunday Night Football twice and on Monday Night Football twice and on Thursday Night Football once and will have a solo TV time slot when they play the Colts in Berlin.  That sort of exposure is not usually afforded to teams that went 8-9-0 in the previous season.  Week 1 has the Falcons and the Bucs starting the season in Atlanta; that is another early season division game that could have significant implications later in the season.
• Panthers – – 6-11-0:  I realize that I am not showing the Panthers a lot of respect with that prediction, but that team allowed 534 points last season.  If this year’s team shaves 100 points off that total from last year, it might still be in the bottom half of the league.
• Saints – – 3-14-0:  The only interesting thing to me about the Saints’ season is this:
  • OVER/UNDER when the grocery bags adorn fans’ heads with the label “’Aints”?
  • I say Week 5 at home against the Giants with the Saints 0-4 at kickoff.
• My prediction of only 3 wins could well be in doubt until very late in the season.  Here is the Saints’ schedule in Weeks 15-17:
  • Panthers
  • Jets
  • At Titans

It is time now for a look at the NFC North.  Last year, this was a brutally difficult division with three teams winning 11 games or more.  The Packers finished at 11-6-0 putting them a distant third in the NFC North; that same 11-6-0 record would have won three other divisions in the NFL in 2024.  I do not see anything similar happening this year partly because the schedule is very difficult with the NFC East teams and the AFC North teams on tap in 2025.  I say the divisional cumulative record in 2025 will be 35-33-0.

• Packers – – 10-7-0:  The Packers start the season against the Lions and Commanders.  The Packers close out the season against the Ravens and the Vikes.  And the stuff in between looks pretty difficult.   I think that rookie WR, Matthew Golden (Texas) could be an important addition to the Packers’ offense as a speed receiver.
• Lions – – 10-7-0:  I attribute this drop off in wins to the coaching brain-drain from the offseason.  The Lions lost both coordinators and two other assistant coaches.  All respect to Dan Campbell here, but that is a lot of change to accommodate all at once.  I am glad to see a throwback game on the schedule this year.  On Thanksgiving Day, the Lions will host the Packers.  That was always the matchup way back when and it should be a good way to get my tummy ready for the feast to follow.
• Vikes – – 8-9-0:  As I noted when discussing the Seahawks, the Vikes were the recipients of Sam Darnold’s “To Date Career Year” in 2024.  I know that the coaching staff is more than just sold on JJ McCarthy as the team leader, but the fact is that he has never taken a real snap in a real NFL game, and the Vikes have a hugely difficult schedule.  The Vikes’ defense added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to the DL and that should make a strong unit even better.
• Bears – – 7-10-0:  Bears’ fans seem to be even more optimistic than usual for the 2025 season because they believe that Ben Johnson has some sort of magic elixir that he will share with Caleb Williams thereby launching the Bears into the playoffs poised to “make a run”.  I don’t subscribe to that newsletter, but I do think the Bears will improve on their 5-12-0 record from last year.  The Bears’ game in Week 6 is at the Commanders.  Last year, the Bears visited Washington around the same time in the season and had the game won until a Hail Mary pass was completed to turn the Commanders’ season in a positive direction and to send the Bears on a long journey to nowhere.  Get set to see replays of that Hail Mary completion at least a bazillion times in that week.

            Last – but certainly not least – I need to read the tea leaves from the NFC East.  The schedules for these teams are all difficult; the NFC East teams get to play the NFC North teams and the AFC West teams.  Oh joy …  I see a much more compact final standing for this division in 2025 and much of that is due to the grinding of the schedule on these rosters.  I say the division cumulative record for 2025 will be 36-32-0.

• Eagles – – 12-5-0:  Philly fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Eagles deserve every accolade based on their performance in 2024 and then throughout the playoffs.  However, Saquon Barkley is not going to rush for 2000+ yards again in 2025; fans should be thrilled if he gets to 1500 yards.  The team lost its Offensive Coordinator to a head coaching gig.  The schedule starts out difficult:
  • Cowboys – – big rivalry game
  • At Chiefs – – Super Bowl rematch
  • Rams – – playoff team last year
  • At Bucs – – playoff team last year
  • Broncos – – a team on the upswing
• The schedule also ends with difficulty in Weeks 16-18:
  • At Commanders
  • At Bills  – and won’t the weather for that game be a blessing…
  • Commanders
• And don’t forget that the Eagles lost about a half-dozen defensive players who were significant contributors last season.
• Commanders – – 10-7-0:  Commanders’ fans will call me a hater; I am not.  The Commanders were 8-1 in one-score games in 2024; that is a difficult thing to sustain.  The Commanders’ defense is like a  yo-yo from game to game and even from half-game to half-game.  The offense should be very good – – assuming that the young running backs live up to their pre-season hype.  Jayden Daniels is the real deal, but he may experience a small regression this year because defensive coordinators around the league have had months to check him out; no one had that sort of luxury last year.
• Cowboys – – 8-9-0:  The addition of Geroge Pickens is a plus for the offense and for Cee Dee Lamb specifically.  The array of RBs on the depth chart is pretty bland – – but it is better than what was there last year; and Dak Prescott is back to play QB.  That’s the good news.  The not nearly as good news is that the Cowboys defense was awful in 2024 giving up 468 points – – only the Panthers were worse (see above).  I keep looking at the Cowboys’ depth chart for some standout defenders that have been added over the offseason.  If you find any, please let me know.  Here is a particularly rough schedule stretch for the Cowboys in Weeks 12-17:
  • Eagles
  • Chiefs
  • At Lions
  • Vikes
  • Chargers
  • At Commanders
• Giants – – 6-11-0:  The Giants’ BYE Week is in Week 14.  If the Giants are 2-11-0 at that point, Brian Daboll will be fired.  Looking at the schedule, there are only 3 games where the Giants could be favored in the first 13 weeks.  This team needs to overachieve early in the season to keep the season from becoming a cataclysm.

            So, here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the AFC:

1. Chargers – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Texans
5. Chiefs
6. Broncos – – they host the Bengals in Week 4 and win the tie-breaker that night

And here is the playoff lineup as I see it now for the NFC:

1. Eagles – – BYE Week and Home Field
2. Packers – – Division winners via tie-breaker with the Lions
3. Cards
4. Bucs
5. Commanders
6. Lions

As always, I will not let these predictions and comments fade into oblivion; they will be exposed for what they are in Jan/Feb 2026.

I’ll close with this most appropriate comment from Lao Tzu:

“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………