NFL 2025 – A Synoptic View

Today will be the second aliquot of the all-too-large NFL Pre-Season Analysis that I have presented in previous years.  This will be a league overview, and it will give me another day or two to finish up my last installation here – – the final records for all the teams in the regular season.

I think this season will be an acid test for a few teams/players in addition to the coaches that I suggested would be on a hot seat this year.  In no particular order:

• Colts:  They have been stuck in “middle moose mode” ever since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement announcement and have not been able to get their QB situation stabilized.  This will be the eighth consecutive year they have a new starting QB for Game 1.  They have never been high enough in the Draft to get a real good prospect and have reached for players like Anthony Richardson who lost the starting job this year to Daniel Jones who is – – face it – – a retread.  If the Colts finish 9-8 or worse and miss the playoffs, they could easily decide to fire the coach; they should also fire the GM who has been there longer than the coach.
• Giants:  I put them here because I mentioned Daniel Jones above.  Ever since the disappearance of Eli Manning from the roster, the Giants’ QBs have been “ordinary at best”.  Truth be told, Daniel Jones was the best of the lot, and he was unceremoniously cast aside last year.  Let me refresh your memory here with Giants starting QBs in addition to Daniel Jones since 2019:
  • • Colt McCoy
    • Mike Glennon
    • Jake Fromm
    • Davis Webb
    • Tommy DeVito
    • Tyrod Taylor
    • Drew Lock

Now imagine if you will the agita that would prevail in the Giants’ fanbase if Daniel Jones shows up in Indy and produces a Pro Bowl season that leads the Colts to the playoffs.  There might not be enough Pepto Bismol east of the Mississippi to cure that burning sensation…

• Dolphins:  They signed up Tua Tagovailoa to a contract worth more than $200M and it would seem that the team might like to know how that is going to work out.  When things are right, Tua is very good; things are not always right, however; and Tua has had a propensity for injury.
• Cards:  Believe it or not, Kyler Murray has been in the NFL for 6 years already.  Last year, the Cards went from 4 wins in 2023 to 8 wins in 2024.  Might this be the year when Kyler Murray demonstrates that he has become a “plus selection” as the overall #1 pick back in 2019?
• Niners:  This team under Kyle Shanahan is the football incarnation of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  In the 8 seasons under Shanahan, the Niners have posted double-digit wins 4 times and been to the Super Bowl twice.  In those same 8 seasons, the team has finished with 6 wins three times and with 4 wins the other time.  As they used to say on the very old daytime TV game show, To Tell the Truth:
  • • “Will the real SF 49ers please stand up?”
• The championship window for the Niners seems to be closing.  The Niners are long in the tooth with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey poised on a precipice with Father Time nudging them forward.  McCaffrey has had difficulty staying healthy recently and Kittle will be 32 years old in October.  Brandon Aiyuk may not be available until mid-season; Deebo Samuel was traded away, Kyle Juszczyk is 34 years old, and Trent Williams just turned 37.

It is that time of year when lots of folks are looking ahead to the NFL regular season thereby starting a generic narrative for the season.  As the drumbeats get louder and more rhythmic, it always. seems as if certain teams either acquire popular momentum or lose it entirely.  At this point in the run-up to the regular season, I think there are a few overrated teams and a few underrated teams in the generic narrative.

I’ll start with three teams that might be OVERRATED:

1. Bills:  Let me be clear, I totally expect them to win the AFC East.  My sense is that a lot of commentators have them penciled in for the AFC Championship Game at least for this season and I’m not nearly as convinced that the Bills are that much better than other AFC teams.  On the positive side, the Bills finally signed James Cook to a long-term extension giving them a running threat to keep defenses honest.  My question is with the Bills’ defense, which was not great last year giving up 22 points per game.  Folks did not pay much attention to that because the Bills’ offense scored 31 points per game.  But I don’t see a big step forward for the Bills’ defense this year and the fact that they will not have 2 of their DTs available for the first 6 games – – league suspension – – makes me wonder a bit.
2. Lions:  Again, do not misinterpret here; I do not think the Lions will fall apart. I do think that the fact that they won 15 games last year has clouded the vision of some prognosticators; the Lions are not likely to do that again this year and it has nothing to do with personnel.  The Lions lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs over the offseason – – Ben Johnson is in Chicago and Aaron Glenn is in NYC.  That is non-trivial; the last time that happened it was to the Eagles after they went to the Super Bowl in 2022 and lost there to the Chiefs.  Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon got head coaching gigs and the Eagles in 2023 bore no resemblance to the team that showed up in 2022.
3. Bengals:  Everyone looks at the triumvirate of Joe Burrow/JaMar Chase/Tee Higgins and concludes that they will score points galore; in fact, those guys scored 28 points per game in 2024.  And yet, the Bengals finished at 9-8-0 with that offensive output.  Therein lies the rub; in order to win in the NFL, it behooves the defensive unit to stop somebody some of the time.  The Bengals did not do that last year, and I don’t think they added any Hall of Fame quality players to that  unit in the offseason.  There is too much love being piped into Cincy for my taste.

            I only have two teams that I consider UNDERRATED at this point in the generic narrative.  I realize my failure to have a third one on hand puts the symmetry of the universe at risk, but I’ll take the chance:

1. Cowboys:  They were 7-10-0 last year which is hardly a reason to be excited for this year.  But the Cowboys played much of last year with Cooper Rush at QB and with a sub-par running game.  This year Dak Prescott will be back from injury and even Cowboy-haters must acknowledge that Prescott is a significant step up in class at the position.  Moreover, the Cowboys’ acquisition of George Pickens gives them a WR tandem that could be Top-5 in the league – – if the team can find a way to keep Pickens focused on football and not on any excursions to La-La-Land. I am confident that Jerry Jones, Micah Parsons and Micah Parsons’ agent will find a way to “kiss and make up” after all the bluster in recent weeks surrounding Parsons’ desire for a contract extension and Jones’ “intransigence”.
2. Chargers:  Here is a foreshadowing for a couple of days from now; I think the Chargers are going to win the AFC West.  Jim Harbaugh may not be my favorite hominid on Planet Earth, but he can coach football, and he likes to assemble a team that is bigger than the opponents so that he can bludgeon the opponents.  Last year, the Chargers’ running game bludgeoned no one; this year they have Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton to run the ball, and both seem to seek out someone with the other color jersey to run into or over.  Justin Herbert will benefit from that kind of attacking run offense and I think the Chargers are going to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024 when they went 11-6-0

            In about half of the NFL seasons, one of the teams that finished last in its division the previous year rises up and wins the division the next year.  This is called a Worst-To-First season.  So, I want to take a look and see which bottom-feeder from 2024 might be a division winner in 2025:

• AFC East – Pats:  They were 4-13-0 last year and will likely be much improved in 2025.  However, they will not overtake the Bills.
• AFC North – Browns:  Love their defense but that is not good enough to get them to the top of a tough division.
• AFC South – Titans:  I know they have the overall #1 pick to play QB for them, but I was not over-the-moon excited about him back on Draft Day.  Not happening …
• AFC West – Raiders:  With Pete Carroll in charge – – and with Tom Brady able to chime in periodically – – at least there is adult supervision for the team which has not necessarily been the case recently.  Nonetheless, the Raiders are not winning that division in 2025.
• NFC East – Giants:  They will be better than 3-14-0 this year – – but not nearly good enough to win this division.
• NFC North – Bears:  Is Caleb Williams as advertised?  If so, the Bears should be significantly better in 2025 than the 5-12-0 team that hit the field in 2024.  However, they have 3 powerhouse teams ahead of them in that division …
• NFC South – Saints/Panthers:  Both teams finished 5-12-0; I think the Saints are going to be a strong contender for the overall #1 pick in the 2026 Draft and not be a contender in the division.  The Panthers could be an interesting “Worst-To First” candidate if they find a way to shore up their defense which gave up 31.4 points per game in 2024.
• NFC West – Niners:  I think they are getting more love than they should – – but in terms of a last place finisher from last year having the potential to put together a winning season this year, I think the Niners are the best bet on the board.

            Since I worried about upsetting the symmetry of the universe above, let me do a little repair work here.  Since others look for teams that may go Worst-To-First, let me try to find a candidate that will go First-to-Worst in its division:

• AFC East – Bills:  I think the Bills are going to repeat as the division winners for the sixth straight year in 2025; so, cross them off this list.
• AFC North – Ravens:  It would be the Cinderella Story of the decade in sports if Joe Flacco led the Browns from the cellar of the division to have them dethrone a Ravens’ squad that self-immolated and fell to the bottom.  However, you are more likely to find a green unicorn that farts rainbows than to find this in the NFL standings in January 2026.
• AFC South – Texans:  If CJ Stroud were to turn into a pumpkin …  Even so, it is hard to imagine the Texans falling below the Titans and the Jags…
• AFC West – Chiefs:  I think the Chiefs will suffer “Super Bowl Loser Syndrome” this year and will not come close to winning 15 games again in 2025, but they are not going to finish last in the AFC West.
• NFC East – Eagles:  Expect them to come back to the pack this year; the schedule is brutal – – but I don’t see them falling behind the Cowboys and the Giants.
• NFC North – Lions:  As noted above, I expect regression here and as intimated above, the Bears might be on the improve.  And the Vikes/Packers are both good teams …  Not to worry, I am not going to talk myself into that prediction.
• NFC  South – Bucs:  Bucs have won the division 4 years in a row even though their cumulative record in the last three seasons is a measly 27-24.  They lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching job in their division.  The Bucs have survived on their tightrope in the past; can they do it again?
• NFC West – Rams:  This could be a very tight division if the Niners come on as many people think they will.  And Matthew Stafford has been nursing a bad back all through Training Camp.  Jimmy G. is a competent back-up there – – but the operative word is “back-up”.  I think the Rams are the most vulnerable of the division winners for the upcoming season.

            That concludes my synoptic view of the upcoming NFL season; it will be subject to post-mortem analysis and evaluation about 5 months from now.

Finally, this observation by the French author, Paul Valery seems an appropriate way to end today:

“The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………