NFL Coaches On A Hot Seat – 2025

At this time last year, I deviated from earlier practice.  Instead of one massive NFL pre-season analysis, I broke it up into smaller and more digestible pieces.  After reviewing that modification, I decided to do it the new way once again this year.  And so, today will be my look at NFL coaches on a hot seat.

There are not a lot of NFL head coaching jobs – – 32 of them to be exact and there is a huge supply of folks out there who would love to “give it a go” in such a role.  Normally, that would create a buyer’s market for owners and meager leverage for agents and wannabe coaches.  Not so.  The owners’ competitive nature is a wild card in that market; few if any of them like to sit back and watch their colleagues win championships while they sit on their thumbs.  There are big financial commitments at stake here and there is a significant churn in the coaching population.  Going into this season, there are 7 new head coaches in the ranks; there have been years with even greater turnover.

I have broken up the coaches into 4 general categories which I will explain as I get to them.  Inside the categories, I will list the coaches alphabetically and will include a comment for all the individuals on the lists.  Enough preamble …

The first category is the No Way They Get Fired List.  I have 10 coaches on this list; I think it would take something like incontrovertible video evidence of someone on this list in a carnal relationship with a barnyard animal to get them fired.

1. Dan Campbell – Lions:  Turned the franchise around.
2. Jim Harbaugh – Chargers:  I think he will win the AFC West this year.
3. John Harbaugh – Ravens:  He is a Baltimore institution.
4. Sean McDermott – Bills:  His Bills should win the AFC East again for the sixth season in a row.
5. Sean McVey – Rams:  He mentioned that he was considering retirement a couple of years ago; he may do that, but he will not be fired.
6. Sean Payton – Broncos:  The Broncos’ team momentum is on the upswing.
7. Andy Reid – Chiefs:  He will be the coach of the Chiefs until he decides to retire.
8. DeMeco Ryans – Texans:  He took over a team that had gone 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons and has won the division two years in a row.
9. Nick Siriani – Eagles:  He has made the playoffs in all four years in Philly and been to the Super Bowl twice in that time.
10. Dan Quinn – Commanders:  Such a marked improvement over predecessors from the last 20 years.

            The next category is First Year On The Job Coaches.  I have seven folks so designated here.  Any of them could be fired with a disastrous performance – – see Jerrod Mayo and the Pats and/or Antonio Pierce and the Raiders  last year – – but it would have to be dumpster-fire bad to have that happen.

1. Pete Carroll – Raiders:  Even Mark Davis is not dumb enough to fire someone of Carroll’s stature after one season on the job.  The Raiders were a significantly flawed roster last year; if Carroll can make the team into a “break-even proposition” this year he would be a first-class hero.
2. Liam Coen – Jags:  This is his first gig as a head coach anywhere.  The Jags only won 4 games last year; that is not a high bar to cross.
3. Aaron Glenn – Jets:  The Jets have had nine consecutive losing seasons.  If the Jets win five or six games this year, Glenn will be back in 2026.
4. Ben Johnson – Bears:  Expectations here are sky-high.  Johnson is a “certified offensive genius”, and Caleb Williams is proclaimed as a “generational talent”.  What could possibly go wrong?
5. Kellen Moore – Saints:  I do not have a good feeling about the Saints in 2025.
6. Brian Schottenheimer – Cowboys:  I think he is safe this year simply because I don’t think Jerry Jones would want to face criticism for his choice of Schottenheimer in the first place.
7. Mike Vrabel – Pats:  The Pats stunk in spades last year; Vrabel was successful with the Titans and the expectation in New England should be “an improved team.”

My next category is difficult to label so I’ll just call it I Don’t Expect Vulnerability Here But I Would Not Be Shocked Either.  There are seven entries on this list.

1. Todd Bowles – Bucs:  It pains me to put hm on this list because I think he is an excellent coach.  He has been on the job for 3 seasons and has won the NFC South every year – – but his record in doing so is only 27-24-0.
2. Matt LaFleur – Packers:  The vulnerability here is that his record in the playoffs is 3-5-0 while his overall regular season record is 67-33-0.  Some folks see that as ‘underachievement” …
3. Mike MacDonald – Seahawks:  He had a solid “rookie season” with the Seahawks in 2024 finishing second in the division at 10-7-0.
4. Raheem Morris – Falcons:  The last time the Falcons had a winning season was back in 2017; Morris posted the best record since then last year at 8-9-0.  Unless the Falcons’ record craters in 2025, Morris should be safe.
5. Kevin O’Connell – Vikes:  His regular season record with the Vikes is 34-17-0; he was the Coach of the Year in 2024.  Why isn’t he on the “No Way” list?  His Vikings are 0-2 in the playoffs.
6. Kyle Shanahan – Niners:  This will be his ninth season with the Niners; he had them in the Super Bowl two years ago and then bombed out last year with a 6-11-0 record.  By the way, that was his fourth losing season in eight tries.  If this year is another losing season, there could be an upheaval in Santa Clara …
7. Mike Tomlin – Steelers:  No, I have not ingested any hallucinogens today.  Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ organization are bedrock stability in the NFL structure and Mike Tomlin’s teams have never had a losing season over the last 18 seasons.  Looking at that record of success, one is probably surprised to learn that the Steelers last won a playoff game in 2016 and that the Steelers are 3-9 in the playoffs since the year they won the Super Bowl.

And finally, we come to those Coaches Who Are On A Hot Seat for 2025.  I have eight names on this list – – 25% of the NFL head coaching cadre.

1. Brian Callahan – Titans:  He was 3-14-0 in his first year with the Titans.  That roster was not well constructed; recall that the Titans shed themselves of Derrick Henry and AJ Brown in the two seasons prior to the debacle in 2024.  Nonetheless, without improvement in 2025 – say 5 or 6 wins – there could be a change in Tennessee; the fact that the Titans play in the lackluster AFC South opens the door for an improved record.
2. Dave Canales – Panthers:  He was 5-12-0 with the Panthers in his rookie season last year.  He works for an incredibly impatient owner.  End of message…
3. Brian Daboll – Giants:  He has been the head coach there over the past three seasons.  The Giants won 9 games in Year 1; the Giants won 6 games in  Year 2; the Giants won 3 games in Year 3; that is a disastrous trend line.
4. Jonathan Gannon – Cards:  This will be his third year with the Cards; the first two years produced a meager record of 12-22-0.  However, the Cards doubled their win total in 2024 as compared to 2023.  He will get off the hot seat if the upward trend continues – – but with a regression …
5. Mike McDaniel – Dolphins:  He has been in Miami for 3 seasons; the Dolphins made the playoffs in the first two of those seasons albeit losing in the wild card round of the playoffs both times.  Last year the team went 8-9-0 and I think this year might just be a litmus test for McDaniel.
6. Kevin Stefanski – Browns:  It is almost unfair to have him on this list.  He has been with the Browns for 5 seasons now – – and that should knock plenty of time off his stint in Purgatory down the line.  In the first four seasons, his Browns were 37-30-0 notwithstanding the fact that the team was saddled with Deshaun Watson and his bloated contract.  Then last year was a disaster at 3-14-0.  The “Cleveland QB Circus” remains in town so I have no idea what might be an acceptable record in 2025 for him to keep his job.
7. Shane Steichen – Colts:  This will be his third season with the Colts and the team record in the first two seasons is an underwhelming 17-17-0.  He may need a playoff appearance to save his position.
8. Zac Taylor – Bengals:  The Bengals have finished 9-8-0 in each of the last two seasons and have missed the playoffs which many folks see as underperformance.  A big reason to suspect that Taylor will survive even if the Bengals miss the playoffs again is that he is under contract through 2026 and the Bengals’ owner, Mike Brown, notoriously does not like to pay people who are not “on the job”.

As usual, this set of prognostications will be subject to post-mortem analysis at the end of the NFL season.

Finally, this perspective from former NFL RB, Ricky Williams:

“If you want to surf, move to Hawaii. If you like to shop, move to New York. If you like acting and Hollywood, move to California. But if you like college football, move to Texas.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………