Month: July 2025

Happy Independence Day

Happy Independence Day, everyone.  Celebrate safely and sanely.

I know that NFL teams have not reported to training camp yet and that the start of real NFL action is about 8 weeks in the future, but there is a confluence of events in the NFL that I will be very interested to watch unfold once things get underway.  Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you:

  • The 2025 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a franchise known for stability, staying the course, patience, a blue-collar identity …  You get the idea.  Their last “losing season” was in 2003 – – albeit there have been four seasons with records of 8-8-0 in that streak.  The team has been in the Playoffs in four of the last five years.  What might entice such an organization to make a big change in “philosophy” with that history?

The Steelers have had a few divas over that time span, but their most accomplished players were the antithesis of “diva”.  Check this list of top-shelf Steelers’ players and try to apply the “diva label” to more than one or two:

  • Jerome Bettis
  • James Harrison
  • Cam Hayward
  • Santonio Holmes – – plenty of “diva” mixed in there
  • Troy Polamalu
  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Hines Ward
  • TJ Watt
  • Rod Woodson

And that list does not include any of the stars of the Super Bowl teams in the 1970s none of whom were remotely in the “diva category”.  So, in the offseason between 2024 and 2025, this stable and stay-the-course franchise decided to:

  1. Sign Aaron Rodgers
  2. Trade for DK Metcalf
  3. Trade for Jalen Ramsey
  4. Get into a “contract stare-down” with TJ Watt

Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers’ head coach since 2007; he is the longest tenured coach with an NFL team at the moment; this current roster may contain more personnel who represent “potential turmoil” than all the Steelers’ rosters combined in the Mike Tomlin Era.  And what I will find interesting to watch is this:

  • Will Tomlin adapt to the new personnel dynamic?
  • Will the rest of the roster adapt to the new personnel dynamic?
  • Will Tomlin and the Steelers “squelch” the “diva potential” on the roster?

I am well aware of the adage that “Winning cures everything”.  So, if the Steelers make it to the AFC Championship Game, it will not matter – – nor will it be apparent – – how the team coalesced to get  there.  By the same token, if the Steelers have a miserable season and are drafting in the Top Three for next year’s Draft, there will be so many fingers pointed, and stories floated about the collapse that it will be difficult to separate fact from fiction.  Since I expect neither of those extreme scenarios to play out in 2025, that means it could be possible to take a synoptic view of the team and perhaps divine why they took the course they did and how the coaches managed the change.

Finally, since I began today with Independence Day wishes for everyone, let me close with a line from the morning time DJ at a local rock-and-roll station from my youth.  Here is what Bill Wright Sr. told everyone about having a safe Fourth of July:

“To have a safe Fourth, don’t buy a fifth on the third.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

Mix And Match

Let me begin today with a Public Service Announcement:

  • As of today, we are halfway through calendar year 2025 meaning we are closer to the year 2050 than we are to the year 2000.
  • Tempus fugit.

My long-suffering wife often accuses me of worrying about things in the future well before they could possibly happen.  She is right, of course; it is not one of my few if any attractive traits.  So, let me apply that idiosyncrasy of mine to a sports situation today.

The Tampa Bay Rays would be in the playoffs as a Wild Card team if the season ended now and they are within hailing distance of first place in the AL East.  So, let me project the Rays into the MLB Playoffs and suppose for a moment that the team gets hot in October and makes it to the World Series.  What’s the big deal?  The Rays have done that before …

  • The Rays home field in 2025 is Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL.
  • The seating capacity there is 11,026.
  • MLB takes tix off the top to spread around to “corporate partners” and political figures who can be useful to MLB and the like.  Suppose that comes to 5000 tix per game.
  • That would leave only about 6,000 tix for sale to the public which will make what is left of the Rays’ fanbase feel very badly.

For the record, the smallest paid attendance for a World Series Game was all the way back in Game 5 of the 1908 Series between the Tigers and the Cubs.  Attendance that day was only 6,210.  In the scenario I just posited, the record for the smallest paid attendance could be in jeopardy.

So, here’s the question.  What would be worse:

  1. Move the World Series to a large stadium somewhere (Atlanta or Miami are the closest ones) thereby making any and all local Rays’ fans make their way to some “foreign outpost” where they may be outnumbered even in what would nominally be Rays’ home games?
  2. Keep the games in Tampa at a minor league facility and deal with the fact that some loyal fans will be left out of the World Series through no fault of their own?

That is one reason that Rob Manfred earns the big bucks …

Moving on …  The NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder made a big splash in the offseason already signing Shai Gilgeous-Alesander to a 4-year supermax contract worth $285M.  [Aside:  That works out to just under $870K per regular season game over the contract lifetime.]  SGA won the league MVP in the recently concluded season and was the best player overall in the NBA Playoffs at the ripe old age of 27 – – his birthday is next week.

He was not always a member of the Thunder.  He was drafted by the Hornets who traded him to the Clippers the day after the Draft for Miles Bridges – – who was taken with the pick after him – – and a future second round pick.  He played in LA for one season.  Soon after his rookie season was over, SGA was involved in a trade that now looks about as lopsided as any trade that comes to mind:

  • Clippers got: Paul George.  That’s it.
  • Thunder got:  SGA and Danilo Gallinari and 5 first round picks from the Clippers and 2 first round pick swaps with the Clippers at the Thunder’s choosing.

It’s painful just looking at that swap this morning …

Switching gears …  Last week, the WNBA announced that it would be expanding by 3 teams between now and 2030.  The WNBA is clearly on the upswing in terms of live attendance figures, TV audiences and sponsorship interest.  Let’s not cat carried away; all those measures are hugely positive for the league, but the WNBA remains a niche sport in the US.  Nonetheless, the league will expand in the following way:

  • Cleveland will join the league in 2028
  • Detroit will join the league in 2029
  • Philly will join the league in 2030.

According to a report I saw on the AP site, each team had to cough up a $250M “expansion fee” to get a seat at the table.  That same report said that 7 other cities bid for franchises but that these three cities won the lottery for this round of expansion.  The other cities were:

  1. Austin
  2. Charlotte
  3. Denver
  4. Houston
  5. KC
  6. Miami
  7. St. Louis

It seems to me like a good idea for the WNBA to expand one team at a time.  If there were to be three new teams in the league all in one season, there would be a dispersal of talent that could significantly degrade the product – – and that is exactly what the WNBA must avoid.  All is looking up at the moment regarding the WNBA; they need not stumble now and lose momentum.

Finally, this comment from Pat Summitt:

“We keep score in life because it matters. It counts. It matters. Too many people opt out and never discover their own abilities because they fear failure. They don’t understand commitment.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

No March Madness Expansion!

Yesterday, I mentioned that sometime before the start of the NFL regular season we would be hearing about an 18-game regular season expansion.  As if on cue, there is an article in today’s Washington Post saying that – – for the moment – – talks about an 18-game season are on hold.  I am starting to worry about turning into a latter-day Cassandra …

The Niners’ DB, Deommodore Lenoir was arrested on a charge of “obstruction of justice”.  Even if that charge is dropped, he should be arrested and charged with juvenile delinquency – – with the emphasis on “juvenile”.  Here is how the arrest was described at Yahoo!Sports.com:

“According to the police report, officers stopped a group including Lenoir in the area of West Vernon Avenue and South Wilton Place and saw a gun in a parked vehicle. Officers asked for the keys to the car and one person in the group threw them over to Lenoir. Lenoir then tossed the keys to a third person, who attempted to hide them.”

Playing “keep-away” is a time-honored behavior on playgrounds just about everywhere.  Participants are usually pre-teens and the individual from whom something is “kept-away” is not a police officer.   Deommodore Lenoir just put himself squarely in the running for the honor of being Meathead of the Year – 2025.  The Niners just signed Lenoir to a 5-year contract worth up to $92M; they cannot be even slightly happy to learn about this.

Moving on …  There are rumblings that the NCAA mavens are considering an expansion for March Madness that would increase the field to 76 teams.  If they do this, it is purely a cash-grab from the TV networks because there is no clamor in the fanbase to do this.  In fact, the additional “play-in games” that such a field would necessitate will only add more confusion to the bracket pools that made March Madness into what it has become.

There is empirical evidence that the fanbase is not chomping at the bit for more play-in games.  The current set of 4 such games draw TV audiences smaller than any of the future games in the tournament.  As the field stands now, there are teams involved that have lost 10-12 games; other than alums and parents of students at such schools, no one wants to see more of them on TV.

The NCAA stands to make extra money from extra games.  You know who else stands to make more money – – and hence are solidly behind such expansion?  College coaches and Athletic Directors who often have lucrative bonus clauses in their contracts if the teams they oversee get a tournament slot.  So, when you hear from them about how it will “benefit the game” just remember that they are speaking from a position of enlightened self-interest.

It will never happen, but if the NCAA mavens wanted to tweak March Madness, they should cut out the 4 “play-in games” and go beck to a field of 64 teams.  Some folks have observed that the Thursday and Friday first round games dominate the TV landscape and that domination would translate to the “play-in games” without diminution of the Thursday/Friday popularity.  That sounds good, but the logic does not hold:

  • The 4 current “play-in games” draw comparatively tiny audiences.
  • Ergo, adding more low-caliber games to a less popular aspect of the tournament is going to inflate interest?

Coaches – – the ones potentially with bonus clauses in their contracts – – like to point out that the “play-in games” allow for late blooming teams to get a shot at “making a run”.  Here is my answer to those coaches:

  • Your team is in a conference.
  • That conference has a conference tournament the week before the field is selected.
  • That was your “play-in game”.  Win that conference tournament, and you get an invite.

I presume I have made my position abundantly clear on the matter of expansion of March Madness …

Finally, these words from Hunter S. Thompson:

“I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they’ve always worked for me.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………

 

 

The NFL In The News

I was having a phone chat with a former colleague who asked me to explain something to him:

  • The prop bet on yards rushing for the 2025 NFL season by Saquon Barkley is in the range of 1300 yards (Over/Under) for the 2026 season.
  • Given that Barkley rushed for 2005 yards last  year, why is that so low?

I think there are two answers for that query.  The first one has nothing at all to do with Saquon Barkley or the NFL.  A sportsbook operator is not trying to predict Barkley’s rushing total for 2026; the sportsbook simply wants a “balanced book” meaning they have approximately the same amount bet on the OVER prop as is bet on the UNDER prop.  When the book is balanced, the “house” gets a guaranteed profit based on the vig.  So, each book will move that prop line either up or down to accommodate the betting tread at that book, and that means the bettors are the ones actually determining the line for the prop.

The other answer is history.  Prior to Barkley’s season in 2025, only 8 running backs in NFL history have gained 2000+ yards in a regular season.  Ergo, it is not difficult to look back and ask how those 8 RBs performed in the season following their 2000-yard season.  Chronologically:

  1. OJ Simpson:  In 1973, he gained 2003 yards (in only 14 games mind you).  In 1974 he gained 1125 yards.  The differential was minus-878 yards.
  2. Eric Dickerson:  In 1984, he gained 2105 yards.  In 1985 he gained 1284 yards.  The differential was minus-821 yards.  Note: He missed 2 games in 1985.
  3. Barry Sanders:  In 1997, he gained 2053 yards.  In 1998, he gained 1491 yards.  The differential was minus-562 yards.
  4. Terrell Davis:  In 1998, he gained 2008 yards.  In 1999, he gained 211 yards.  The differential was minus-1797 yards.  Note:  He missed 12 games in 1999.
  5. Jamal Lewis:  In 2003, he gained 2066 yards.  In 2004, he gained 1006 yards.  The differential was minus-1060 yards.  Note:  He missed 4 games in 2004.
  6. Chris Johnson: In 2009, he gained 2006  yards.  In 2010, he gained 1364 yards.  The differential was minus-642 yards.
  7. Adrian Peterson:  In 2012, he gained 2097 yards.  In 2013, he gained 1266 yards.  The differential was minus-831 yards.  Note: he missed 2 games in 2013.
  8. Derrick Henry:  In 2020, he gained 2027 yards.  In 2021, he gained 937 yards.  The differential was minus-1090 yards.  Note:  He missed 8 games in 2021.

            The historical trend says that there is a significant decline in rushing yardage for a back in the season following a 2000+ yard season.  In five of the eight situations above, the player missed 2 or more games in the next season and Barkley carried the ball 345 times last year and caught 33 passes meaning he was heavily used by the Eagles in their offense in 2024.  The sportsbooks’ lines around 1300 yards for Barkley in 2025 point to a predicted differential of minus-705 yards in 2025.  Note that only two of the previous 2000+ yard rushers declined by fewer than 705 yards.

Staying with NFL news, there was a big trade in the NFL yesterday.

  • Dolphins get:  Minkah Fitzpatrick and a 5th-round pick in 2027
  • Steelers get:  Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith and a 7th-round pick in 2027.

At first, I thought the Steelers pulled off a world-class heist with this deal.  After reflection, I still think the Steelers came out on top in the trade but maybe it is not such a lopsided transaction.  It seems to me that Jalen Ramsey – uber-talented as he is – just might not be the best guy to have on a team.  He has worn out his welcome with 3 teams now and he is going to be 31 years old in the middle of the upcoming season.  Maybe the Dolphins added by subtraction in this deal?

[Aside:  The Steelers are clearly not as concerned about aging DBs as I might be.  In addition to trading for Ramsey, they also acquired free agent Darius Slay this offseason and Slay is 34 years old now.]

Why I think the Steelers still came out ahead is that if you consider that Ramsey and Fitzpatrick are both top-shelf defensive backs and were swapped one for the other, then the Steelers got a good TE for a pick swap two years from now.  I think Jonnu Smith is worth a lot more than a pick swap.

Since I have been focused on NFL stuff today, let me look ahead just a little bit.  When Training Camp starts and teams begin their three Exhibition Games, a recognizable player somewhere will suffer a serious injury.  At that point the narrative will be that those Exhibition Games are more dangerous than they are worth.  Let me take a crack at that:

  • I do not enjoy NFL Exhibition Games, but they are necessary to prepare for the real games.  NFL football is choreographed violence and when something is “choreographed” the choreography needs to be “rehearsed”.  Exhibition Games are a necessary evil.
  • By the way, players also get injured in Training Camp practice sessions.  They are also necessary evils – – if you assume that “risk of injury” is an “evil”.
  • At some point in the narrative, someone will point longingly at Roger Goodell’s offhand suggestion that he would love to see only 2 Exhibition Games and a regular season of 18 games.  The knee jerk reaction to that observation will surely be that the players’ bodies cannot stand that added stress and strain.
  • How-Evah, [/Stephen A. Smith] the Canadian Football League has played 2 Exhibition Games and 18 regular season games every year since the mid-1980s without catastrophic results.

The moral of the story here is that this narrative is simply a way to fill time and space until the real season begins in September.

Finally, I’ll close today with this observation by political commentator – – and baseball fan – – George F. Will:

“Football combines two of the worst things in American life. It is violence punctuated by committee meetings.”

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………