Football Friday 2/7/25 – – The Super Bowl

Let me begin with this from Elon Musk:

“If you look at space companies, they’ve failed either because they’ve had a technical solution where success was not a possible outcome, they were unable to attract a critical mass of talent, or they just ran out of money. The finish line is usually a lot further away than you think.”

That may be true for space companies but here in Curmudgeon Central, the finish line for Football Fridays will be crossed at the end of today’s rant.  This is it for the season; it spanned about 4 months; there were highlights and lowlights.  And as soon as this one is finished, the genre will go into hibernation until sometime in August 2025.  Springtime is when most plants “come back to life” after a winter’s hibernation; Football Fridays re-enter the world of the living in late summer.  The life cycle is similar but offset by several months.

 

College Football Commentary

 

I really don’t have much to say about college football this week; that season ended two weeks ago and this is a relatively quiet time for the sport.  Some college football aficionados think that the movement of the defensive coordinator at Ohio State to Penn State is a really big deal.  Maybe they are right – – but it never seemed to me that it was the Penn State defense that was the team’s “problem” over the past couple of years.  We shall see …

More importantly from my perspective is that the Ohio State will lose its offensive coordinator AND its defensive coordinator this year.  Chip Kelly goes to the Raiders as the offensive coordinator there; Jim Knowles is the defensive guy who has been signed at Penn State.  Personally, I think losing the two coordinators in the same season is much worse than losing either one of them singularly.  We shall see …

Ron Rivera has been hired at Cal to be the GM for the football program there.  Look, the job of a “college GM” and an NFL GM are probably very different; nevertheless, it should be worth watching this situation unfold because Rivera was a decent coach at a couple of stops in the NFL but an unmitigated disaster as the de facto GM and coach simultaneously of the Washington Skins/Football Team/Commanders.  He will not be coaching at Cal; he will be “GM-ing” and that could be successful or disastrous.  We shall see …

In college football, many people refer to the “Power 4” conferences – – the Big-10, the SEC, the ACC and the Big-12.  Listen to the announcers and to the players as they recite the schools they played for in college.  Maybe that will give you an idea that the “Power 4” conferences indeed have most of the better young football players playing in those conference games.

 

NFL Commentary

 

            The four players to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame have been announced.  They are:

1. Eric Allen
2. Jarred Allen
3. Antonio Gates
4. Sterling Sharpe

That list pleases me immensely because I have thought for years that three of these players – – E. Allen, Gates and Sharpe – – deserved to be in the Hall of Fame sooner than this.  That statement is not to be misconstrued as a knock on J. Allen; he belongs in the Hall too.  The induction ceremony is scheduled for August 2^nd this year.

The 2024 Detroit Lions’ coaching staff is scattered to the winds.  I have probably missed someone or some ones in this list but consider:

• Defensive Coordinator, Aaron Glenn, to the Jets as Head Coach
• Offensive Coordinator, Ben Johnson, to the Bears as Head Coach
• QB Coach, JT Barrett to the Bears as QB Coach
• WR Coach, Antwaan Randel El, to the Bears as WR Coach and Asst. Head Coach
• D-Line coach, Terrell Williams, to the Pats as Defensive Coordinator

That is a lot of discontinuity to be introduced into a coaching staff at one time.  It is not easy to replace both coordinators at the same time let alone those two guys and at least three more members of the coaching team.  This will be an interesting challenge for Head Coach Dan Campbell in Detroit.

The last time the Super Bowl game was played in New Orleans was a memorable one.  As you try to think back to that game, let me give you a two-word clue:

• Power Outage

A report in the New Orleans Times-Picayune last week said that the electrical company that supplies energy to the building has replaced all the equipment that created that problem 12 years ago and testing indicates that it is fully capable of handling the anticipated energy consumption during the event.  In addition, the lights in the stadium itself have been replaced in the intervening years; the new ones are LED lights which offer two advantages:

1. They draw less power to produce the same light level meaning a reduced demand for energy in the stadium as compared to the past.
2. Should there be a “blackout”, the LED bulbs will come back on more quickly than the old lights did meaning a shorter recovery time.

Looking good on the engineering front …

Both the Eagles and the Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl and have won the Super Bowl in the past.  This is the 59^th Super Bowl game; nonetheless, 37.5% of the teams in the NFL have never won a Super Bowl game; for a league that desires parity, that is an awfully high percentage.  Consider:

1. Bengals
2. Bills
3. Browns – – never been to a Super Bowl let alone won one
4. Cards
5. Chargers
6. Falcons
7. Jags – – never been to a Super Bowl let alone won one
8. Lions – – never been to a Super Bowl let alone won one
9. Panthers
10. Texans – – never been to a Super Bowl let alone won one
11. Titans
12. Vikes

Lots of words have been produced regarding the amazing season Saquon Barkley has had in his first year with the Eagles and the remorse felt by the Giants’ fans and organization.  I believe that Barkley will see a direct benefit as a result of his performance this year.  If I understand correctly:

• He gets a $250K bonus for making it to the Super Bowl
• He gets an increase of $250K in his base salary for next year for making it to the Super Bowl.
• He gets a $500K bonus by being named All-Pro this year.
• He gets an increase of $500K in his base salary for next year for being named All-Pro.

 

The Game

 

(Sun Evening 6:30 PM ET) Chiefs – 1 vs. Eagles (48.5):  Are the Chiefs and the Eagles intentionally trying to upend a fundamental premise as to why and how teams make it to this pinnacle game?  Usually, there are stories of how the two QBs have lifted and carried the team to this point and how the one that has the better game on Sunday night will hoist the trophy.  Now look at these two teams:

• Eagles: Their offense percolates when Saquon Barkley has the ball or when the defense thinks he has the ball and has 9 or 10 defenders chasing him while Jalen Hurts scampers into an open field.  Focus on Barkley and the Eagles have other weapons; play Barkley as if he was a run of the mill running back and watch him dominate the game.
• Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is in the middle of the worst season in his career.
  • • For the first time in his career, he did not throw for 4,000 yards.
    • This season was his lowest yards per game passing in his career.
    • This season was his lowest yards per pass attempt in his career.
    • This season is tied for the least number of TD passes in his career.
    • He took 36 sacks this year, never having taken more than 28 in a season.

And yet, here are these two teams in New Orleans to determine this year’s Super Bowl Champion…

[Aside: The projection for the size of the TV audience for the game is 125 million souls.  I wonder how that audience breaks down along these lines:

How many watch hoping to see their favorite team win?

How may watch hoping to see their bete noire lose?

How many watch because they have “a little something” riding on the outcome?

How many watch hoping that the score by quarters hits one of their box squares?

How many watch only because they think the ads will be great?

How many watch because it will be a major topic of conversation at work on Monday and they do not wish to look like a doofus?]

This is the one game of the year where I predict the exact final score of the game.  From this prognostication, you can easily discern what I would do if there were to be a “Betting Bundle” for this single game.  The final score of Super Bowl LIX will be:

• Eagles 31   Chiefs 27

The Eagles will win this game differently from the way they got to this game.  I am confident that Chiefs’ Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, has recognized the need to keep Saquon Barkley from running wild in the game and that he has come up with a plan to keep him under some semblance of control without committing so many resources to stopping him that he unbalances the whole defense.  I think the Eagles will need to use short passes to the tight ends and a bomb or two to keep the deep defense honest to come away with the win.  There will be a big play made by the Eagles’ defense and I think it will be made by cornerback, Cooper DeJean.

• So let it be written; so, let it be done…

And for those who are into some of the prop bets attached to the game, consider these:

• Total Offense Both Teams = 690.5 yards  Take the OVER
• Jake Elliott misses a PAT   Take YES at +245 odds
• Patrick Mahomes longest run = 11.5 yards  Take the OVER

Finally, somewhere in the last Football Friday of the season, there has to be an homage to Willie Nelson and Dandy Don Meredith:

“Turn out the lights
The party’s over
They say that all
Good things must end
Call it a night
The party’s over
And tomorrow starts
The same old thing again.”

Back in August …

But don’t get me wrong, I love sports………